Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME OF REPORT: 16 JUN 25 / 14:08 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 16 JUN 25 / 13:08 ZULU - 16 JUN 25 / 14:08 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk CLASSIFICATION: TOP SECRET // ORCON // NOFORN

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Ukraine Operational Area:
  • Sumy Oblast Border Region: Air Force of Ukraine (AFU) reports a second high-speed target crossing the Sumy Oblast border in a south-westerly direction. This indicates continued, aggressive Russian probing or reconnaissance-in-force, or missile/drone activity from this axis. Threat subsequently cleared. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air alarm cancellation reported by Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration. This follows a period of heightened threat, now subsided. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • South-Donetsk / Shakhtyorsk Direction: "Воин DV" (Russian milblogger) claims drone strikes successfully destroyed Ukrainian assault groups in the Shakhtyorsk direction, implying active combat and Russian counter-offensive operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claim, MEDIUM for BDA). Colonelcassad (Russian milblogger) posts a fundraising appeal for assault and reconnaissance units operating in the South-Donetsk direction, reinforcing activity in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Kursk Oblast Border (Russia): "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" (Russian milblogger) posts imagery captioned "Курская область," indicating continued Russian military presence and focus on this border region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for presence, LOW for specific activity).
  • Kyiv (Internal): STERNENKO (Ukrainian activist) reports on a charity raffle that raised 85 million UAH for Ukrainian Armed Forces drones, highlighting internal Ukrainian efforts to support the military. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Internal Affairs/Occupied Territories/External:
  • Russia (Internal): TASS reports on a legislative proposal to increase maternity capital, reflecting ongoing domestic social policy discussions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Новости Москвы posts a video of a bee swarm, a non-military, internal public interest item. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Middle East (Iran-Israel):
    • TASS reports Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov stated "dangerous consequences" of attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities are "obvious," urging Israeli restraint. This escalates Russian diplomatic pressure on Israel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • ASTRA (Russian opposition media) posts imagery of alleged "consequences of shelling the oil refinery in Haifa," likely referencing Israeli strikes, though the image appears to depict an industrial fire unrelated to shelling. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for post, LOW for caption veracity/direct relevance).
    • "Военкор Котенок" and "Операция Z" (Russian milbloggers) amplify claims of "new explosions in Tehran" on the west and east sides, citing Iranian sources (Jamaran). Videos depict large smoke plumes, indicating significant incidents, possibly related to ongoing tensions or Israeli strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for reports of explosions, MEDIUM for cause/target).
    • TASS reports Iranian President stated negotiations with US will only continue if Israeli strikes cease. This sets a clear condition for de-escalation from Iran's perspective. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Long-Range Missile Development (UK/France): "Старше Эдды" (Russian milblogger) reports that the developer of Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles announced a project for a low-cost, long-range "One Way Effector" missile. This is a significant development in Western long-range strike capabilities, possibly influencing future battlefield dynamics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Moldova (Internal): "Басурин о главном" (Russian milblogger) posts a heavily propagandized video titled "Moldova: Police, protecting homosexuals, beat a priest and injured a child," alleging clashes between police, LGBTQ+ activists, and traditional/religious groups in Chisinau. This is a clear Russian information operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova by exploiting social tensions, portraying Western influence (LGBTQ+ organizations) as corrupting, and fostering anti-government sentiment. It uses highly inflammatory, biased language. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Operations (IO) & Narratives:
    • Child Exchange Propaganda (Russian War Crime): Zelenskyy states Russia offered to exchange Ukrainian children for Ukrainian POWs, calling it "madness" and "outside international law." This is a deeply disturbing Russian proposal, highlighting extreme disregard for humanitarian norms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • "Human Shield" Accusation (Russian False Flag): "Операция Z" (Russian milblogger) pushes a narrative accusing Ukrainian forces of using civilians as "human shields" in Kupyansk by placing drone control points in residential areas. This is a classic Russian false flag accusation, designed to justify attacks on civilian infrastructure or to discredit Ukrainian defensive tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Russian accusation, LOW for veracity).
    • Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Narrative (Ukrainian Self-Reporting): Operatyvny ZSU reports SBU and State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) exposed officials who embezzled over 64 million UAH on military vehicle procurement. This highlights Ukraine's continued efforts to combat corruption within its defense sector, strengthening its international credibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Zelenskyy's Diplomatic Efforts: Operatyvny ZSU reports Zelenskyy plans to raise the issue of purchasing a defense package during his meeting with Trump. РБК-Україна reports a political analyst's perspective on the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting, tempering expectations for "big breakthroughs" but emphasizing the need for Ukraine to convey its position effectively. Zelenskiy / Official (Official) confirms a live meeting with the Austrian Chancellor. These demonstrate Ukraine's active and proactive diplomatic posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • EU Sanctions on Russian Oil: Operatyvny ZSU and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report the EU will not lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 due to lack of G7 support. This indicates a divergence within the international coalition regarding economic pressure on Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Russian Milblogger Ratings: "Басурин о главном" promotes a "Reach. Response. War Correspondents" rating of channels that "managed the news agenda" last week, indicating internal Russian competition and focus on information dominance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Ukrainian Drone Success: General Staff of the AFU posts a video titled "Destroying the logistics of the Russian army," showcasing multiple Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian personnel (motorbikes, dugouts) and an unarmored military truck. This highlights effective Ukrainian tactical drone operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Russian Failed Assault: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" (Russian milblogger) posts a video titled "The assault failed," showing a Russian BMP-2 being destroyed by a Ukrainian FPV drone. This is a rare, seemingly un-manipulated Russian admission of a tactical failure and loss. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Ukrainian Fundraising for Drones (Civilians): STERNENKO reports a charity raffle winner who raised 85 million UAH for Ukrainian Armed Forces drones, demonstrating significant public support and successful civil society initiatives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Ukrainian drone strike footage (Gen Staff of AFU, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) indicates suitable weather conditions for UAV operations, including thermal imaging capabilities in cold conditions (BMP-2 strike). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Reports of explosions in Tehran (Военкор Котенок, Операция Z) and alleged industrial fire in Haifa (ASTRA) imply conditions suitable for visual observation of smoke plumes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces: Maintaining active air defense posture (Sumy border region). Actively combating internal corruption (SBU/DBR operation). Engaging in proactive diplomacy to secure future aid (Zelenskyy-Trump, Austria meetings). Successfully employing tactical drones against Russian logistics and armored vehicles. Civilian society continues to rally significant financial support for military procurement (STERNENKO's raffle). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces: Maintaining aggressive probing/reconnaissance-in-force from the northern border (Sumy). Actively engaged in drone operations in the South-Donetsk/Shakhtyorsk directions. Engaging in high-intensity, ideologically charged information warfare, including false flag accusations ("human shields"), and deeply concerning proposals like exchanging children for POWs. Escalating diplomatic rhetoric regarding Iran's nuclear facilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Facing tactical setbacks from Ukrainian FPV drone strikes (BMP-2 destruction). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Internal focus on social policies (maternity capital). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RUSSIA FOCUSED)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA):

• Capabilities (Russia):

  • Border Probing/Reconnaissance: Demonstrated ability to launch high-speed targets across the Sumy border, likely for reconnaissance or shaping operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tactical Drone Operations: Continues to employ tactical drones, as evidenced by claims of destroying Ukrainian assault groups in Shakhtyorsk direction, though also susceptible to Ukrainian FPV strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Warfare - Child Trafficking/Hostage Diplomacy, False Flag Accusations, Destabilization, Ideological Incitement, Diplomatic Pressure:
    • Unprecedented Humanitarian Blackmail: Revealed capability and intention to leverage kidnapped Ukrainian children as bargaining chips for POW exchanges, a heinous war crime. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Pre-emptive "Human Shield" False Flag: Demonstrated capability to fabricate "human shield" accusations against Ukraine (Kupyansk drone control points) to create pretexts for attacking civilian areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Regional Destabilization (Moldova): Proven ability to exploit social divisions and historical grievances in neighboring states (Moldova) through highly inflammatory, biased propaganda, aiming to destabilize governments perceived as pro-Western. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Escalatory Diplomatic Rhetoric: Capable of issuing strong diplomatic warnings regarding regional conflicts (Ryabkov on Iran's nuclear facilities) to increase international pressure and deflect attention. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Logistics & Sustainment: Ongoing fundraising appeals for tactical units (Colonelcassad for South-Donetsk) suggest localized or persistent equipment shortfalls, particularly for high-attrition items like FPV drones. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Command and Control (C2): Maintains operational C2 for tactical drone deployment and border probes. IO C2 remains highly adaptive and capable of generating multi-layered, often extreme, narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

• Intentions (Russia):

  • Coerce Ukraine through Unspeakable Means: Intends to exploit the vulnerability of kidnapped children as leverage in prisoner exchanges, demonstrating a willingness to violate any ethical or legal norms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Degrade Ukrainian Resolve and Justify Attacks: Continue to generate false flag narratives ("human shields") to discredit Ukraine, undermine international support, and justify its own indiscriminate targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Destabilize Neighboring Pro-Western States: Actively intends to inflame social and political tensions in states like Moldova to undermine their pro-Western governments and pull them back into Russia's sphere of influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Maintain Pressure on Frontlines: Sustain ground and drone pressure on active axes (South-Donetsk/Shakhtyorsk) to achieve incremental tactical gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Project Global Diplomatic Influence & Divert Attention: Continue to assert itself as a major diplomatic player in regional conflicts (Iran-Israel), using rhetoric to pressure adversaries and divert global attention from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Control Internal Narrative: Continue to use state media to manage public expectations and promote social stability through legislative proposals. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• "Child Exchange" as New Negotiation Tactic (Russian Adaptation): The reported offer to exchange Ukrainian children for POWs marks a shocking and morally reprehensible new "tactic" in Russia's negotiation playbook, demonstrating an extreme disregard for human rights and international law. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Proactive "Human Shield" Accusations (Russian Adaptation): The explicit accusation of Ukrainian forces using "human shields" by placing drone control points in residential areas (Kupyansk) is a tactical shift in information warfare, designed to pre-emptively justify potential Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Direct Destabilization of Neighbors via IO (Russian Adaptation): The highly aggressive, ideologically charged propaganda targeting Moldova (LGBTQ+ vs. traditional values, police brutality) signifies a more direct and potent application of hybrid warfare to destabilize neighboring states perceived as drifting from Russian influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Acceptance of Tactical Failures (Russian Adaptation): The rare, un-manipulated video from "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" showing a Russian BMP-2 destroyed by a Ukrainian FPV drone, captioned "The assault failed," suggests either a new, limited level of internal transparency within milblogger circles or an attempt to appear "authentic" by admitting minor tactical setbacks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Continued Western Long-Range Missile Development (Western Adaptation): The development of the "One Way Effector" missile indicates a Western adaptation to the demand for cost-effective, long-range strike capabilities, which will impact Russian force planning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• Russian tactical units (South-Donetsk) continue to rely on crowdfunding for "assault and reconnaissance units," indicating persistent, albeit potentially localized, logistical gaps, particularly for high-consumption items like FPV drones and other specialized equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The continued ability to launch high-speed targets from the Sumy border implies sustained supply lines for these assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The destruction of a Russian BMP-2 by a Ukrainian FPV drone highlights the continued attrition of Russian armored vehicles, necessitating ongoing production or procurement to maintain combat effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian Military C2: Continues to direct tactical engagements, border probes, and drone operations. The failed assault of the BMP-2 highlights that not all tactical operations are successful, suggesting C2 faces battlefield challenges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian IO/Diplomatic C2: Highly effective and adaptive, rapidly deploying extreme narratives (child exchanges, Moldova destabilization), false flags ("human shields"), and coordinated diplomatic pressure (Iran-Israel rhetoric). Shows ability to exploit diverse events for narrative shaping. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Military C2: Continues to direct defensive operations and effective tactical drone strikes. AFU C2 effectively issues and lifts air alerts. SBU/DBR C2 is effective in combating corruption within procurement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Diplomatic C2: Proactive and effective in pursuing continued international support and engaging key global leaders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UKRAINIAN FOCUSED)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Ukrainian forces maintain an alert defensive posture on the northern border, responding to high-speed targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Long-range and tactical drone strike capabilities are proven and actively employed to degrade Russian logistics and armored vehicles, demonstrating offensive readiness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Anti-corruption efforts within military procurement (SBU/DBR operation) demonstrate a commitment to improving readiness and accountability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Diplomatic posture is highly proactive, seeking continued and expanded Western aid (Zelenskyy-Trump meeting) and engaging European partners (Zelenskyy-Austrian Chancellor meeting). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Civil society demonstrates strong resilience and direct support for the military through significant fundraising for equipment (drones). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Success (Anti-Corruption): The SBU and DBR uncovered a 64 million UAH embezzlement scheme in military vehicle procurement, a significant step in improving resource allocation and military effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Tactical Drone Strikes): Ukrainian forces achieved multiple successful drone strikes against Russian personnel (motorbikes, dugouts) and an unarmored truck (Gen Staff AFU video) and destroyed a Russian BMP-2 (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА video). These are significant tactical successes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Diplomatic Proactivity): President Zelenskyy's stated intent to discuss defense purchases with Trump and his meeting with the Austrian Chancellor underscore proactive and effective diplomatic efforts to secure vital aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Information Operations - Transparency): Ukraine's public reporting of Russian war crimes (child exchange proposal) and its own anti-corruption efforts (SBU/DBR) strengthens its moral authority and international standing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Russian War Crimes): The Russian proposal to exchange Ukrainian children for POWs represents a deeply troubling and morally repugnant development. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Information Warfare - Russian False Flags): Russia's continued dissemination of "human shield" accusations and aggressive destabilization propaganda targeting Moldova remains a persistent challenge in the information environment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (International Economic Cohesion): The EU's inability to further lower the Russian oil price cap due to G7 lack of support represents a setback in economic pressure against Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Continued Russian border probing and missile threats necessitate robust air defense systems, including interceptors and effective early warning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The success of Ukrainian tactical drones highlights the ongoing need for funding, procurement, and training for UAV operators and platforms. Civilian fundraising efforts are vital but cannot fully replace state procurement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Combating large-scale corruption requires sustained institutional commitment, legal resources, and internal oversight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The moral and psychological burden of Russian war crimes, such as the proposed child exchange, necessitates robust psychological support for affected families and a clear international legal strategy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Narratives:
  • Child Trafficking/Hostage Diplomacy: The reported Russian offer to exchange Ukrainian children for POWs is a horrific, unprecedented attempt to manipulate and exploit the most vulnerable, designed to inflict maximum psychological distress and test Ukraine's moral boundaries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • "Human Shield" Accusations: "Операция Z" actively promotes the false flag narrative of Ukrainian forces using civilian areas in Kupyansk for drone control points, implying they are "human shields." This aims to justify Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure and discredit Ukrainian defensive tactics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Destabilization of Moldova: "Басурин о главном" pushes a highly inflammatory, divisive narrative of social conflict in Moldova (police brutality, LGBTQ+ vs. religious conservatives). This is a classic hybrid warfare tactic to sow discord, undermine pro-Western governments, and portray them as illegitimate or morally corrupt. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Middle East Diversion/Escalation: Russian milbloggers continue to amplify reports of "new explosions in Tehran" and Russian state media (TASS) issues strong warnings to Israel regarding Iranian nuclear facilities, aiming to heighten global tensions, frame Israel as an aggressor, and divert Western attention from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Projecting Internal Stability (Mundane Issues): TASS reports on maternity capital increase and Новости Москвы's bee video are examples of state media focusing on mundane or social issues to project an image of normalcy and stable governance within Russia, counteracting any perception of internal crisis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Controlling Military Narratives (Admitting Minor Setbacks): "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" posting a video of a failed Russian assault and a destroyed BMP-2, captioned "The assault failed," could be a calculated move to appear authentic and build credibility with its audience by admitting small, tactical losses, while obscuring larger strategic failures. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Ukrainian Counter-Narratives:
  • Exposing Russian War Crimes: President Zelenskyy's immediate and unequivocal condemnation of the "child exchange" proposal is a crucial and powerful counter-narrative, exposing the extreme nature of Russian aggression to the international community. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Highlighting Anti-Corruption Efforts: Operatyvny ZSU's reporting on the SBU/DBR embezzlement bust strengthens Ukraine's narrative of democratic governance, transparency, and commitment to reform, which is vital for maintaining international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Diplomatic Proactivity: News of Zelenskyy's planned meeting with Trump and his meeting with the Austrian Chancellor directly counters Russian narratives of dwindling Western support and projects strong Ukrainian leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Demonstrating Military Effectiveness: The General Staff of the AFU video showcasing successful drone strikes on Russian logistics and personnel, and the shared video of a destroyed Russian BMP-2, serve to boost Ukrainian morale and demonstrate combat effectiveness to both domestic and international audiences. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Highlighting Civilian Support for Military: STERNENKO's report on the successful charity raffle for drones demonstrates strong national unity and civilian commitment to the war effort. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Countering Economic Pressure Narratives: Ukrainian media reporting on the EU's decision not to lower the Russian oil price cap, while not a full success, acknowledges the reality of international coalition dynamics and manages expectations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian Morale: President Zelenskyy's forthright condemnation of the "child exchange" proposal will likely unify public outrage and solidify resolve against the enemy. Successes in drone strikes and anti-corruption efforts will boost confidence in military capabilities and governance. Civilian fundraising for drones demonstrates high public morale and active participation in the war effort. Continued diplomatic engagement at the highest levels provides reassurance of international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Morale: Russian IO aims to maintain domestic support through narratives of social stability (maternity capital) and internal competition among milbloggers (ratings). The revelation of Russian tactical failures (BMP-2 destroyed) could slightly undermine the narrative of Russian invincibility, but such admissions are often framed as isolated incidents. Destabilization efforts in Moldova, while aimed externally, reflect a state seeking to assert control in its perceived sphere of influence. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• US-Ukraine Aid: Zelenskyy's stated intent to discuss defense package purchases with Trump at the G7 summit highlights Ukraine's active pursuit of continued US military assistance. The political analyst's tempering of expectations signals an understanding of the complexities involved. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• EU Sanctions Debate: The EU's decision not to lower the Russian oil price cap (due to G7 lack of support) indicates internal divisions or a cautious approach within the international coalition regarding further economic pressure on Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Austrian Support: Zelenskyy's meeting with the Austrian Chancellor signifies continued European diplomatic engagement and support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Middle East as Diversion/Leverage: Russia continues to exploit the Iran-Israel conflict diplomatically (Ryabkov's warning, Iranian President's condition for US talks) to pressure Israel and divert global attention and resources from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Western Long-Range Missile Development: The announcement of the "One Way Effector" missile by the Storm Shadow/SCALP developer signals ongoing Western commitment to developing advanced military capabilities relevant to the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Continued Pressure on Active Frontlines & Border Probes: Russia will maintain and potentially intensify tactical drone and artillery strikes on the South-Donetsk/Shakhtyorsk axes. Expect continued high-speed probes and potential reconnaissance-in-force operations across the northern border (Sumy/Chernihiv). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Escalated, More Extreme Information Operations: Russia will double down on highly provocative and morally reprehensible IO, including further "child exchange" style proposals, more frequent and explicit "human shield" accusations, and aggressive destabilization campaigns targeting neighboring states (e.g., Moldova, Baltic states) through the exacerbation of internal social tensions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Sustained Diplomatic Maneuvering on Global Crises: Russia will continue to leverage the Iran-Israel conflict and other global flashpoints to portray itself as a key diplomatic player while subtly escalating rhetoric and exploiting international divisions to divert Western attention and resources from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Adaptation to Western Long-Range Missile Development: Russia will likely begin to factor in the development of new Western low-cost, long-range missiles (like "One Way Effector") into its defensive planning and rhetoric, potentially using it as a pretext for further escalation or accusations of Western "aggression." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Strategic Escalation with Humanitarian Catastrophe as Leverage: Russia initiates a major, multi-axis ground offensive (e.g., from Sumy, or a breakthrough on a key Donetsk axis) combined with a massed, high-intensity missile and drone campaign targeting critical infrastructure nationwide. This offensive would be synchronized with a "negotiation" offer involving the mass "exchange" of kidnapped Ukrainian children for substantial political or territorial concessions from Kyiv, or a halt in Western aid, designed to fracture international solidarity and force Ukraine into a morally impossible decision. This would be accompanied by a global IO blitz justifying the offensive and humanitarian blackmail as Ukraine's "fault" for rejecting "peace" or for "using human shields." (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• "Hybrid Blitz" to Destabilize Neighboring States & Divert NATO: Russia launches a coordinated, overt hybrid attack on a NATO or EU border state (e.g., Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, or Poland via Belarus), employing a combination of information warfare (e.g., provoking large-scale internal unrest through false flag events and incitement), cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, and limited, deniable cross-border incursions by proxy forces or Spetsnaz. This would be designed to test NATO's Article 5 resolve, compel a significant diversion of NATO military and diplomatic resources away from Ukraine, and create a broader regional crisis that fragments Western unity. (CONFIDENCE: LOW, but high impact).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 1-6 hours):
  • ISR: Prioritize collection on verification of the Russian proposal to exchange children for POWs, seeking any additional details, conditions, or official confirmations. Intensify monitoring of Russian activity on the Sumy Oblast border, specifically the nature and intent of the high-speed targets. Continue to monitor for new false flag accusations (e.g., "human shields" in Kupyansk) and further Russian destabilization efforts in Moldova.
  • IO: Commanders must prepare to immediately and forcefully condemn the Russian proposal to exchange children for POWs as a grave war crime and a moral outrage. Ukrainian channels should highlight their own successes in tactical drone operations and anti-corruption efforts. Proactively debunk "human shield" false flag narratives.

---

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• GAP 1: VERIFICATION OF "THE TELEGRAPH" REPORT ON US AID CESSATION (CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE, HYPER-PRIORITY, RETAINED): Independent, all-source verification of the "The Telegraph" report amplified by Russian sources regarding the cessation of US military aid to Ukraine. Assess the type, quantity, and operational impact of any such claims on Ukrainian defense capabilities.
  • COLLECTION REQUIREMENT (CR): Prioritize SIGINT, OSINT (direct source review of "The Telegraph" article for context, content, and accuracy), IMINT, and HUMINT from US, NATO, and Ukrainian sources to confirm or refute these reports. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 2: VERIFICATION OF ISRAELI/IRANIAN IMPACTS & RUSSIAN CLAIMS ON IRANIAN "HYPERSONIC" USE / AD DEFEAT / US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES / NUCLEAR THREATS / IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL / IRANIAN MFA UNSC PUSH, AND "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" / DECEPTIVE "APOCALYPSE" VIDEOS / IRANIAN UNUSED MISSILE POTENTIAL (CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE, UPDATED FOCUS, RETAINED): Independent, all-source verification of all specific impact claims in Israel and the reconciliation of conflicting casualty figures. Critically, assess the veracity of claims of Iranian "hypersonic" missile use and "new methods" to defeat Israeli air defenses, as well as claims of US Embassy damage in Tel Aviv and the shooting down of a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. Verify the claim of THAAD self-destruction due to Iranian hacking. Verify the veracity of Colonelcassad's claim of 370+ Iranian ballistic missiles. Verify claims of a deceased IRGC intelligence deputy, and the TASS report of 8 Iranian military personnel killed in Khomein. Additionally, verify Rybar's claims of US refueling aircraft redeployment and changes in communication patterns for sea-based cruise missiles. Assess the specific impact and intent of the re-introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda and nuclear threats by Russian state-aligned channels, as well as the impact of direct Russian diplomatic actions (citizen warnings, embassy evacuation consideration, calls for UNSC condemnation of Israel, Putin/Erdogan condemnation of Israel). CONFIRM AND ANALYZE THE RUSSIAN DENIAL OF THE IRANIAN PARLIAMENT VOTE TO WITHDRAW FROM NPT. Verify claims of Tehran residents leaving and their true sentiment. Verify the execution of "Mossad agent" Ismail Fikri in Iran. Critically, analyze the source and intent of Kotsnews' "nuclear apocalypse" videos, distinguishing between genuine AD activity, fireworks, or fabricated imagery. Investigate the meaning and implication of Rybar's "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic and its reference to the NPT. Assess Colonelcassad's imagery of "Bid-Khanak army base" for BDA. Critically assess the TASS report of an IRGC advisor stating Iran has not fully used its missile potential against Israel – verify the source and intent of this rhetorical escalation. Critically assess the veracity and intent of "Военкор Котенок" and "Операция Z" claims of "new explosions in Tehran" and the ASTRA image of a Haifa oil refinery. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 3: RUSSIAN INTENT & FORCE DISPOSITION ON NORTHERN AXIS (CRITICAL, RETAINED, NEW FOCUS ON SUMY): Verification of reports of Russian troop movements to Belarus. Assess if the sustained Russian presence in Kursk border region indicates a future offensive push. Specifically assess the nature, scale, and intent of renewed Russian assault attempts on Andriivka in Sumy Oblast and other cross-border activity in Sumy, and the implications of increased KAB and drone attacks on Sumy/eastern Kharkiv. Verify the intent and scale of ballistic missile threat from north-east (Air Force of Ukraine alert). Critically, verify the nature and intent of the second high-speed target reported by AFU crossing the Sumy border, including its trajectory and possible origin. Verify the specific activities and units implied by "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts on Kursk Oblast. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 4: UKRAINIAN BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA) FROM RECENT DEEP STRIKES (CRITICAL, ONGOING): Full extent of damage and operational impact from recent Russian deep strikes on Ukrainian C2, logistics, and industrial sites (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk industrial enterprise from previous ISR), and civilian areas (Kyiv, Kharkiv). Also, full BDA of claimed Russian strikes on Ukrainian dugout/UAV control point near Mirnoye. Specifically, verify Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian UAV command post in Kherson, and assess the operational impact. Assess the full extent of damage and personnel losses to the M113 APC in Donetsk. Assess the impact of claimed Russian strikes on a Ukrainian military-industrial enterprise, training center, and AD radar. Specifically, assess the BDA of the FPV strike on the Ukrainian military truck (Ural/Kamaz), the KAB strikes in Khotin Hromada, Sumy Oblast, the HIMARS strike in Makeyevka (including convoy composition and casualties), and the drone strike on the Russian Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer. Verify the impact of the Ukrainian SOF mine-laying operation (3x BTRs) and the Ukrainian sapper operation near Bayrak village. Investigate the veracity and BDA of the claimed Russian strike on "Kyiv-60" enterprise with "two dozen attack UAVs." Determine the cause and full impact of the large industrial fire in Rivne, and if it was enemy-caused. Assess the BDA of the Su-25 strikes claimed by MoD Russia. Critically, verify Russian losses claimed by Khorne Group 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade during assaults on Andriivka, Sumy Oblast, and BDA of Ukrainian drone strikes on personnel/vehicles in Sumy. Verify Russian claims of FPV strike on Ukrainian buggy and "Ranger" disappearance from Sumy. Assess the BDA of the claimed Ukrainian airstrike on Russian MoD positions in Bryansk Oblast. Assess the BDA of WarGonzo's claimed drone strike on a dugout on the Zaporizhzhia Front. Assess the full BDA of heavy weapon strikes on Zaporizhzhia frontline villages and towns. Assess the BDA of Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian personnel on the Pokrovsk axis (STERNENKO video). Critically, assess the full BDA and operational impact of the UAV attack on "Nevinnomyssky Azot" (fertilizer plant) in Russia, including the extent of damage and duration of suspension. Verify the veracity of the MoD Russia video purporting to show "drone operators in action" - specifically, if it is a miscaptioned Ukrainian FPV strike on a Russian T-80BV tank. Assess the full BDA of Russian assets struck by Ukrainian drones, including the motorbikes, dugout, and unarmored military truck shown in the General Staff of the AFU video. Critically, verify the destruction of the Russian BMP-2 by a Ukrainian FPV drone, as claimed by "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА." (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 5: RUSSIAN ROLE IN ISRAEL-IRAN ESCALATION (CRITICAL, RETAINED, NEW FOCUS ON "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS, ANTI-SEMITISM, NUCLEAR THREATS, NPT WITHDRAWAL, AND DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE, AND POTENTIAL FALSE FLAGS, AND FABRICATED ATTACKS ON US ASSETS, AND JOINT CONDEMNATION OF ISRAEL, AND AMPLIFICATION OF PAKISTAN'S STANCE, AND IRAN'S "UNUSED MISSILE POTENTIAL" RHETORIC): Assess the extent of direct or indirect Russian involvement in instigating or facilitating the recent missile launches from Iran towards Israel, beyond mere amplification and narrative manipulation. Is Russia providing intelligence, materiel, or political cover? Specifically, analyze the motivation and target audience for the amplification of "hypersonic" claims, nuclear threats, the introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda, and the initial (and now denied) claim of Iranian NPT withdrawal by Russian state-aligned channels, as well as the impact of official Russian diplomatic warnings/evacuations, the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Putin/Erdogan's joint condemnation of Israel. Analyze the impact of Russian retractions of false claims. Critically, investigate the origin and intent of the "massive explosion" videos pushed by Russian channels, assessing if they are misattributed or false flags designed to sow fear or project exaggerated power. Investigate the veracity and intent of the claim of "US Embassy damage in Tel Aviv" as a fabricated pretext. Assess the impact of Israel's internal travel restrictions and the blocking of Israeli defense companies at the Paris Air Show, and Russia's leveraging of these events. Analyze the implications of Rybar's "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic. Analyze Colonelcassad's amplification of Pakistan's stance on the conflict. Analyze the TASS report of an IRGC advisor stating Iran has not fully used its missile potential against Israel – is this an Iranian, Russian, or joint rhetorical escalation? Critically analyze TASS Deputy FM Ryabkov's statement on Iran's nuclear facilities and Israeli restraint. Determine the veracity and intent of the ASTRA image purporting to show "consequences of shelling the oil refinery in Haifa." (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 6: VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN TACTICAL GAINS AND UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Independent verification of Russian claims of "full clearing" of Malynivka (Ulyanovka), advances near Burlatske and Novopol, and Pushilin's claim of deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Pokrovsk. Critically, verify the Russian claim of Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Komar area to Voskresenka. Verify Russian claims of destruction of AFU equipment at Novotoretskoye. Assess the veracity of the Russian-produced "Pace of Offensive Operation" chart and its data. Verify claimed "liberation" of Ulyanovka (Malynivka) and Komar settlement. Verify Russian claims of advances on Andriivka, Sumy Oblast, and any related Russian claims of Ukrainian unit withdrawals. Assess the implications of the "summer revitalization" on seven axes for Ukrainian force distribution. Verify the true tactical situation and any gains/losses in frontline Zaporizhzhia villages and towns. Verify the specific tactical situation on the "South-Donetsk direction" and "Zaporizhzhia direction" as implied by Russian milbloggers' posts. Critically, assess the veracity of "Воин DV" claims of destroying Ukrainian assault groups in the Shakhtyorsk direction. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 7: VERACITY AND INTENT OF RUSSIAN "HOSTAGE-TAKING" AND "TERRORIST ATTACK" CLAIMS / BALTIC SEA FALSE FLAG (CRITICAL, UPDATED): Immediately verify the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of Ukrainian militants taking Kursk Oblast residents hostage in Sumy. Assess if this is a legitimate criminal investigation or a fabricated pretext for further Russian aggression or information operations. Also, analyze the intent and specific targets implied by Поддубный's claim that "Zelenskyy's regime is preparing terrorist attacks." Critically, investigate the origin and intent of the Russian-amplified "fake" about Ukraine/Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea. CRITICALLY, IMMEDIATELY INVESTIGATE AND VERIFY PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY'S CLAIM THAT RUSSIA OFFERED TO EXCHANGE UKRAINIAN CHILDREN FOR POWS, INCLUDING ANY DETAILS OF THE PROPOSAL, ITS SOURCE, AND THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN INVOLVED. This is a critical human intelligence and OSINT requirement. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 8: RUSSIAN TACTICAL UAV SUPPLY SHORTFALLS AND FUNDRAISING (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Determine if the crowdfunding appeals for specific drone models by Russian units (VDV, Zaporozhye infantry, Paratroopers) or general "Summer Campaign 2025" fundraisers indicate systemic logistical issues or localized shortages. Assess the scale of these shortfalls and their impact on Russian tactical reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. Investigate the Avito listing of an EW system from Belgorod Oblast for indications of internal corruption or supply chain issues. Assess the impact of mobile internet issues in LNR on Russian tactical UAV operations. Track specific requests for tactical equipment, like the "Kula-4" drone analyzer and 250cc motorcycles, and assess if these are widespread needs or isolated unit-level deficiencies. Analyze the significance of crowdfunding specifically for Mavic 3T/3 Pro drones. Investigate the implications of the Russian airline engine cowling detachment on aviation safety/maintenance/supply. Verify if the MoD Russia video of an FPV strike (likely Ukrainian) implies a need for better FPV counter-measures or different FPV types for Russia. Critically, assess the implications of Colonelcassad's fundraising appeal for "assault and reconnaissance units" on the South-Donetsk direction – does this indicate systemic equipment shortfalls or normal unit-level procurement? (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 9: VERACITY OF RUSSIAN "TERRORIST" ARRESTS / ANTI-MIGRANT PROPAGANDA (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Independent verification of the details and context surrounding the FSB's claimed arrest of a "Kyiv agent" in Kherson Oblast. Assess whether this is a legitimate counter-terrorism operation or a propaganda fabrication. Assess the veracity of the claim regarding priests being "victims of TCC". Verify the veracity of the Mash na Donbasse claim of a Ukrainian "national battalion fighter" being "convicted" after firing on Russian troops. Verify the SBU's detention of an "informant of the occupiers" in Slovyansk. Critically, investigate the origin, reach, and intent of the "Военкор Котенок" video featuring Orthodox priests promoting anti-migrant and anti-Islam narratives – assess if this is a state-orchestrated information operation to radicalize domestic audiences. Critically, analyze the motivation and specific targets of "Операция Z"'s narrative accusing Ukrainian forces of using civilians as "human shields" in Kupyansk by placing drone control points in residential areas. Assess its intended impact on international and domestic audiences. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 10: DETAILS OF POW EXCHANGES AND BODY REPATRIATION (LOW, UPDATED): Verify numbers, conditions, and composition of personnel involved in claimed POW exchanges, particularly Alex Parker's claim of a 6000:27 ratio. Critically, verify Medinsky's claim of 6060 Ukrainian bodies transferred to Russia and 78 Russian bodies received from Ukraine, and his new projection of 2239 more Ukrainian bodies to be transferred. Compare and contrast with MO RF's later, conflicting claims of 1248 Ukrainian bodies transferred and 51 Russian bodies received. Critically, verify the numbers and specific conditions of Russian military bodies transferred to Ukraine, as reported by Ukraine's Interior Minister Igor Klymenko (mutilated, in different bags, multi-stage transfers). This GAP is now superseded in urgency by Zelenskyy's statement on child exchanges – see GAP 7 for new critical requirement. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 11: USE OF NORTH KOREAN MATERIEL (LOW, NEW): Assess the prevalence and impact of North Korean weapons systems (e.g., Type 75 MLRS) in the Russian armed forces.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (imagery analysis), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 12: RUSSIAN DNIEPER RIVER CROSSING CAPABILITIES/INTENT (LOW, NEW): Assess the scale, frequency, and intent behind reported Russian training exercises for Dnieper river crossings. Is this a genuine preparation for a large-scale offensive, or a localized probing/training exercise?
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite imagery of training areas), SIGINT (communications regarding riverine operations), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 13: IMPACT OF RUSSIAN/BELARUSIAN FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS (LOW, NEW): Assess the strategic and economic impact of continued international flight cancellations to/from Russia and Belarus. Does this indicate worsening international isolation or specific security concerns? Assess the purpose and impact of Novosti Moskvy's propagation of videos of damaged civilian aircraft engines, and ASTRA's report on engine cowling detachment.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (airline announcements, travel advisories, economic reports). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 14: RUSSIAN USE OF AZERBAIJAN AS LOGISTICAL/DIPLOMATIC CORRIDOR (CRITICAL, UPDATED): Assess the full scope and purpose of the confirmed new transit route via Baku for Russian personnel and potentially materiel from Iran. Is this a one-off evacuation or the establishment of a strategic corridor for personnel and/or materiel from Iran? The latest crossing of 225 more Russians confirms ongoing use. Critically, investigate Alex Parker Returns' explicit claim that "Azerbaijan closed the border with Iran back in 2020," attempting to debunk this as disinformation.
  • CR: Prioritize SIGINT, HUMINT, and OSINT (monitoring air and ground traffic, diplomatic statements from Russia and Azerbaijan). (PRIORITY: CRITICAL).
• GAP 15: IMPACT OF MOBILE INTERNET ISSUES IN LNR (LOW, NEW): Assess the cause and operational impact of the reported mobile internet issues in LNR. Does this indicate Ukrainian EW activity, infrastructure damage, or internal Russian issues?
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local reports, social media), SIGINT (if possible, traffic analysis). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 16: PUBLIC HEALTH SITUATION IN OCCUPIED/FRONT-LINE AREAS (LOW, NEW): Assess the extent of public health risks (e.g., cholera) in occupied and front-line Ukrainian territories, and the effectiveness of local and international efforts to mitigate them. Specifically, assess the severity of water supply issues in occupied Mariupol due to reservoir depletion. Monitor the impact of Mishustin's announced investment in water treatment facilities in "new Russian subjects."
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local health reports, UN/NGO assessments), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 17: INTENT AND IMPACT OF RUSSIAN PRE-EMPTIVE "PROVOCATION" NARRATIVES (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Assess the specific trigger and target of SVR RF's claim that "Ukraine and Europe are preparing sophisticated provocations against Russia." Specifically, investigate the newly articulated false flag scenario involving a "Russian torpedo attack on a US Navy ship in the Baltic Sea." Is this setting the stage for a specific false flag event, or a general deflection tactic? Also assess Poddubnyy's claim of "Zelenskyy's regime preparing terrorist attacks." Colonelcassad's amplification of the "Baltic Sea sabotage" claim. Critically, analyze the Russian-amplified "fake" about Ukraine/Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea, as reported by РБК-Україна. Critically, investigate the background and intent of the Russian "human shield" accusation in Kupyansk by "Операция Z." (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 18: EFFECTIVENESS AND DEMAND FOR UKRAINIAN EW CAPABILITIES (LOW, NEW): Assess the specific types of EW equipment needed by Ukrainian forces (e.g., as highlighted by 'Barny') and the effectiveness of current EW systems in countering Russian drones and electronic warfare.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from frontline units, OSINT (technical analyses of EW systems). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 19: VERIFY RUSSIAN UNIT IDENTIFICATIONS (LOW, NEW): Confirm the veracity of unit identifications provided by Russian sources, such as the "163rd Tank Regiment RF" in the motorcycle crash video.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (cross-referencing with other sources, unit tracking), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 20: PACIFIC FLEET EXERCISES (MEDIUM, NEW): Assess the specific objectives, scale, and duration of the Russian Pacific Fleet exercises. Are these routine drills, or do they signal a new strategic posture or a shift in force deployment?
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT (maritime tracking, official statements, naval analyses). (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 21: IMPACT OF RUSSIAN INTERNAL PURGES (LOW, NEW): Assess the impact of actions like the bankruptcy proceedings against Timur Ivanov on Russian military cohesion, logistics, and internal stability.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (Russian legal/financial news), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 22: VERIFICATION OF UKRAINIAN COMMAND CHANGE (CRITICAL, NEW): Independent, all-source verification of the report that General-Major Nikoliuk replaced Tarnavsky as commander of OTU "Donetsk." Assess the operational implications of this change.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from Ukrainian military sources, OSINT (Ukrainian official announcements, reputable news agencies). (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 23: IMPACT OF UKRAINIAN ANTI-CORRUPTION EFFORTS ON MILITARY PROCUREMENT (MEDIUM, NEW): Assess the full impact of the exposed Lviv Oblast procurement scheme (64 million UAH losses) on military supply chains and future procurement processes. Are these isolated incidents or indicative of systemic vulnerabilities? Assess the full impact of the SBU/DBR exposed 64 million UAH embezzlement scheme on military vehicle procurement. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 24: UKRAINIAN INTERNAL PUBLIC SENTIMENT IN LOCALITIES (LOW, NEW): Assess the specific reasons and broader implications of negative public sentiment towards local officials (e.g., Trukhanov in STERNENKO's video). Does this indicate localized issues or broader political discontent that could affect civil-military cooperation?
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local media, social media analysis), HUMINT (local surveys if feasible). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 25: IMPLICATIONS OF LONG-RANGE MISSILE DEVELOPMENT (NEW): Assess the potential impact of new Western low-cost, long-range missile development (e.g., Storm Shadow/SCALP "One Way Effector") on Ukrainian and Russian offensive/defensive capabilities in the mid-to-long term.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (technical defense analyses, industry reports), HUMINT (from Western defense officials). (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations (ISR, HUMINT, OSINT critical):

  1. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF "THE TELEGRAPH" AID CESSATION CLAIM. All-source intelligence must rapidly confirm or refute the Russian-amplified report on US military aid cessation. This remains the single most critical collection requirement for the next 6-12 hours. (Supports CR 1).
  2. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN "CHILD EXCHANGE" PROPOSAL. Task all available HUMINT and OSINT assets to immediately verify the details, source, and context of President Zelenskyy's statement regarding Russia's offer to exchange Ukrainian children for POWs. Gather any additional evidence of this abhorrent proposal. (Supports CR 7).
  3. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE BDA & VERIFICATION OF UAV ATTACK ON "NEVINNOMYSSKY AZOT" AND ASSOCIATED RUSSIAN RESPONSES. Task all available ISR assets to conduct immediate BDA on the "Nevinnomyssky Azot" facility. Assess the extent of damage, operational impact on fertilizer production, and potential long-term strategic implications for Russia. Monitor for any immediate Russian retaliatory strikes or heightened rhetoric following this successful Ukrainian deep strike. Verify if the MoD Russia video purporting to show "drone operators in action" is indeed a miscaptioned Ukrainian FPV strike on a Russian T-80BV tank, and if so, leverage this for IO. Additionally, perform BDA on the successful Ukrainian drone strikes shown in the General Staff of the AFU video (motorbikes, dugout, truck) and the BMP-2 destruction video. (Supports CR 4).
  4. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS REGARDING IRANIAN "HYPERSONIC" USE / AD DEFEAT / US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES / NUCLEAR THREATS / IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL / IRANIAN MFA UNSC PUSH, AND "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" / DECEPTIVE "APOCALYPSE" VIDEOS / IRANIAN UNUSED MISSILE POTENTIAL. ANALYZE RUSSIAN RELIGIOUS/ANTI-MIGRANT PROPAGANDA. Rapidly confirm or deny claims of Iranian hypersonic missile use, AD defeat, US Embassy damage, and US MQ-9 Reaper drone shootdown. Expose any exaggeration or fabrication by Russian/Iranian sources. Critically, assess the intent and impact of nuclear threats and overt anti-Semitic slurs from Russian-aligned channels, and the implications of Russia's denial of the Iranian NPT withdrawal claim, as well as the impact of direct Russian diplomatic actions (citizen warnings, embassy evacuation consideration, calls for UNSC condemnation of Israel, joint condemnation of Israel). Forcefully investigate and identify the source of the "massive explosion" videos; if misattributed or false flags, prepare immediate debunking. Critically assess the TASS report of an IRGC advisor stating Iran has not fully used its missile potential against Israel. Launch intensive analysis into the "Военкор Котенок" video featuring Orthodox priests promoting anti-migrant/anti-Islam narratives – identify the network, assess reach, and develop targeted counter-messaging against this dangerous ideological escalation. Assess the veracity and intent of "Военкор Котенок" and "Операция Z" claims of "new explosions in Tehran" and the ASTRA image of a Haifa oil refinery. (Supports CR 2, CR 5, CR 9).
  5. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE BDA & VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN LOSSES/TACTICAL SITUATION, ESPECIALLY ULYANOVKA AND INCREASED ACTIVITY ON SEVEN AXES. VERIFY IMPACT OF HEAVY WEAPON STRIKES ON ZAPORIZHZHIA FRONTLINE VILLAGES. ASSESS BDA OF UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES ON RUSSIAN PERSONNEL IN POKROVSK. VERIFY SBU DETENTION OF INFORMANT IN SLOVYANSK. MONITOR ZAPORIZHZHIA AND SOUTH-DONETSK AXES CLOSELY. Task all available ISR assets to conduct immediate BDA. Assess Russian losses claimed by Khorne Group 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade during assaults on Andriivka, Sumy Oblast, and BDA of Ukrainian drone strikes on personnel/vehicles in Sumy. Verify Russian claims of FPV strike on Ukrainian buggy and "Ranger" disappearance from Sumy. Assess BDA of claimed Ukrainian cross-border airstrike in Bryansk Oblast. Verify Russian claim of "liberation" of Ulyanovka (Malynivka) and assess the reality on the ground. Also, confirm success of Ukrainian SOF mine-laying (3x BTRs) and STERNENKO's drone-on-drone kill. Assess the implications for the tactical situation on the Pokrovsk and Novoukrainka axes. Verify Russian claimed strike on "Kyiv-60" enterprise and determine cause/impact of Rivne industrial fire. Assess BDA of MoD Russia's claimed Su-25 strikes. Assess BDA of WarGonzo's claimed drone strike on a dugout on the Zaporizhzhia Front. Assess the implications of OSUV "Khortytsia" reporting increased Russian activity on seven axes. Assess the actual impact of heavy weaponry on Zaporizhzhia frontline villages and towns. Confirm the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian personnel (STERNENKO video) and the SBU informant arrest. Monitor Russian milblogger posts on Zaporizhzhia and South-Donetsk axes for specific details. Critically, assess the veracity of "Воин DV" claims of destroying Ukrainian assault groups in the Shakhtyorsk direction. (Supports CR 4, CR 6, CR 9).
  6. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION AND DEBUNKING OF RUSSIAN "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS AND BALTIC SEA FALSE FLAG. IMMEDIATE ANALYSIS OF "HUMAN SHIELD" NARRATIVES. Task GUR/SBU to immediately investigate and gather evidence to refute the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of "Ukrainian militants taking Kursk residents hostage in Sumy." Prepare for immediate, forceful public debunking. Investigate the specifics of the SVR claim regarding a false flag "Russian torpedo attack on a US Navy ship in the Baltic Sea" and Colonelcassad's amplification, and the new Russian-amplified "fake" about Ukraine/Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea. Critically, investigate the origin and intent of the Russian "human shield" accusation in Kupyansk by "Операция Z." (Supports CR 7, CR 17).
  7. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF UKRAINIAN COMMAND CHANGE (OTU "DONETSK"). Immediately confirm the reported replacement of OTU "Donetsk" commander (General-Major Nikoliuk replacing Tarnavsky). Assess the reasons and potential operational implications of this change. (Supports CR 22).
  8. URGENT: VERIFY RUSSIAN "TERRORIST" ARRESTS IN KHERSON AND UKRAINIAN UAV C2 DESTRUCTION CLAIM, AND "PRIEST" NARRATIVES. Assess the veracity of FSB claims regarding the detained "Kyiv agent" and MoD claims of destroyed UAV C2 to determine if it is a legitimate operation or a propaganda pretext. Investigate the claims regarding priests and TCC. Verify the veracity of the Mash na Donbasse claim of a Ukrainian "national battalion fighter" being "convicted" after firing on Russian troops. (Supports CR 4, CR 9).
  9. CRITICAL PRIORITY: INTENSIFY ISR ON POKROVSK, KHARKIV-KUPYANSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK, KRAMATORSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA AXES, AND NORTHERN BORDER WITH BELARUS, AND DNIEPER RIVER. Maintain continuous monitoring for any signs of Russian force buildup or offensive preparations. Increase monitoring of Russian riverine activity on the Dnieper. Increase ISR focus on the Sumy axis due to renewed assault attempts and KAB/drone strikes and eastern Kharkiv due to KAB strikes. Monitor for any unit identifications, such as the "163rd Tank Regiment RF." Intensify monitoring of heavy weaponry usage in Zaporizhzhia frontline villages and for ballistic missile launches from the north-east. Monitor Russian milblogger posts about these areas. Critically, analyze the second high-speed target reported by AFU crossing the Sumy border; determine its nature (missile, drone, aircraft) and precise trajectory. Continue to monitor "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" for specific activities/units in Kursk Oblast. (Supports CR 3, CR 6, CR 12, CR 19).
  10. URGENT: ASSESS BDA OF RECENT C2/LOGISTICS/INDUSTRIAL/CIVILIAN STRIKES. GUR/SBU to conduct immediate, granular battle damage assessment (BDA) for the Kyiv civilian damage, Oryol strikes, Kharkiv strikes, Khotin Hromada strikes, and other recent deep strikes. Identify systemic vulnerabilities and develop immediate counter-measures. Focus on Nevinnomyssky Azot. (Supports CR 4).
  11. IMMEDIATE: MONITOR AND EXPLOIT RUSSIAN IO NARRATIVES (ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN AID CESSATION, MIDDLE EAST "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS / "US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES," NUCLEAR THREATS, IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL (AND ITS DENIAL), "UKRAINIAN LOSSES," AND EXPLICIT ANTI-SEMITISM, AND POTENTIAL FALSE FLAG EXPLOSION VIDEOS, AND "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS, AND "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" CLAIMS, AND MANIPULATED BODY EXCHANGE NUMBERS, AND MAXIMALIST DEMANDS, AND PRE-EMPTIVE "PROVOCATION" NARRATIVES, INCLUDING "NUCLEAR UNCERTAINTY" GRAPHIC, AND RHETORIC ON IRANIAN UNUSED MISSILE POTENTIAL. MONITOR WAGNER-LINKED CHANNELS AND EXPOSE AZERBAIJAN BORDER DISINFORMATION). Actively monitor for and analyze new Russian IO narratives, particularly those claiming reduced/stopped Western aid to Ukraine, exaggerating Middle East "successes" or "incidents," speculating on US involvement or ties (including specific unverified BDA/casualties), and the new, sensational claims of Iranian "hypersonic" missile use and AD defeat, explicit nuclear threats, claims of Iranian NPT withdrawal (and subsequent denial), and the use of overt anti-Semitic propaganda. Also track Russian diplomatic actions in the Middle East (including joint condemnation of Israel) and the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Iranian MFA calls to UNSC. Immediately analyze any new "massive explosion" videos for their origin and intent as potential false flags. Crucially, monitor all Russian channels for further amplification or details of the "hostage-taking" claims. IMMEDIATELY MONITOR FOR FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OR DEBUNKING OF THE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" CLAIM. Pay close attention to Russian manipulation of body exchange figures, including Medinsky's new projections. Monitor for amplification of maximalist demands (destroy Western weapons) and pre-emptive "provocation" narratives. Monitor narratives regarding Israel's internal travel restrictions and the Paris Air Show incident. Analyze the new "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic by Rybar and its implications for nuclear rhetoric. Monitor and analyze Russian rhetoric on Iran's "unused missile potential." Actively monitor Wagner-linked channels (like "Condottiero™") for content and trends, and expose their attempts to build credibility through geopolitical commentary. Forcefully debunk Alex Parker Returns' claim about the Azerbaijan-Iran border to expose Russian attempts to obscure sensitive logistical routes. Publicly confirm and explain the changes in Ukrainian military command (OTU "Donetsk"). Highlight the 6 civilian deaths and 4 injuries from Russian shelling in Donetsk Oblast. Forcefully condemn the use of religious figures for anti-migrant/anti-Islam propaganda (Volenkor Kotenok's video). Immediately monitor for and analyze further Russian narratives regarding the proposed "child exchange for POWs." Closely monitor "Операция Z" for further "human shield" accusations against Ukraine and "Басурин о главом" for continued destabilization propaganda against Moldova. (Supports CR 1, 2, 5, 7, 10, 14, 17).
  12. CONTINUOUS COUNTER-SABOTAGE INTELLIGENCE & INTERNAL SECURITY MONITORING. Continue efforts to identify and neutralize collaborators, as demonstrated by the recent success in Mykolaiv and Donetsk. Investigate the Avito EW system listing for signs of internal corruption or diversion. Investigate the Kryvyi Rih embezzlement case for further implications on critical infrastructure resilience. Address the Lviv mobilized serviceman incident to identify systemic issues. Monitor internal Russian repression and dissent for insights into regime stability. Monitor impact of Timur Ivanov bankruptcy. Analyze the SBU's detention of the informant in Slovyansk for lessons learned and best practices. Investigate the Lviv Oblast procurement corruption scheme (64 million UAH losses) and its systemic implications. Follow up on the SBU/DBR investigation into the 64 million UAH embezzlement scheme related to military vehicle procurement; assess the scale of impact and potential systemic vulnerabilities. (Supports CR 9, CR 21, CR 23).
  13. MONITOR AND ANALYZE UKRAINIAN INTERNAL POLITICAL/SOCIAL SENTIMENT. While not direct military intelligence, monitoring public opinion on local leaders (STERNENKO's Trukhanov video) can provide insight into civil-military relations and overall societal stability. (Supports CR 24).
  14. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF NEW WESTERN LONG-RANGE MISSILE DEVELOPMENT. Analyze the announcement of the "One Way Effector" missile for its potential impact on future Ukrainian offensive capabilities and Russian defensive strategies. (Supports CR 25).

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. MAINTAIN HIGHEST AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS ALL OBLASTS, WITH EMPHASIS ON EASTERN AIR THREAT AND INDUSTRIAL/CIVILIAN TARGETS, AND NORTHERN AXIS. Anticipate Russia may increase the intensity or breadth of aerial attacks (UAVs, ballistic missiles, KABs, tactical aviation, TOS) to capitalize on global distraction and the IO narrative of Western aid cessation. Ensure layered AD coverage for critical infrastructure and population centers, particularly industrial sites and population centers, and especially in border regions (Sumy, Chernihiv). Be prepared for aviation-launched munitions in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Focus on defense against drones in Sumy. Prioritize AD assets for protection of frontline villages in Zaporizhzhia subject to heavy weaponry and critical industrial targets (similar to Nevinnomyssky Azot) within Ukraine. Be alert to ballistic missile threats from the north-east. Maintain particularly high vigilance for rapid airborne targets crossing the Sumy border.
  2. ADAPT TO WIDER GEOGRAPHIC DRONE/MISSILE THREAT & COUNTER DEEP STRIKES. Implement and refine TTPs to counter widespread, multi-axis attacks, including FPV drones using small arms. Prioritize resources for defending critical C2 nodes, ammunition depots, and industrial/civilian facilities against confirmed Russian deep strikes.
  3. REVIEW AND REHEARSE CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS (COOP) PLANS. All units must immediately review and rehearse COOP plans, ensuring redundant communication pathways and alternate command posts are ready, given the persistent threat of deep strikes.
  4. IMMEDIATE DISPERSAL AND CONCEALMENT. Disperse all high-value assets and personnel. Reinforce concealment measures, especially for C2 nodes and logistics hubs, against FPV drones and KABs.

• Ground Forces:

  1. MAINTAIN DISCIPLINED DEFENSIVE POSTURE IN POKROVSK, KHARKIV-KUPYANSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK, KRAMATORSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, AND NORTHERN BORDER DIRECTIONS. Prioritize strong defensive lines. Respond to increased activity on seven axes. Reinforce positions in Zaporizhzhia frontline villages targeted by heavy weaponry. Be prepared for intensified ground actions on South-Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes. Maintain high alert for ground incursions and probing actions from the Kursk border region.
  2. REINFORCE DEFENSES IN SUMY OBLAST (NORTHERN-SLOBOZHANSKYI DIRECTION). Based on DPGU announcement and new assault attempts on Andriivka, prepare for increased Russian ground activity and cross-border incursions. Continue to leverage successes in countering Russian assault attempts. Ensure units are adequately equipped with off-road vehicles and EW.
  3. CONTAIN RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK/DNIPROPETROVSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA, ESPECIALLY AROUND ULYANOVKA/MALYNIVKA, KOMAR AREA, AND NOVOPAVLIYKA. Reinforce defensive lines. Prepare for counter-attacks to regain lost ground or consolidate defensive lines.
  4. CONTINUE FPV DRONE OPERATIONS & COUNTER-BATTERY. Leverage successes in FPV drone attacks against Russian targets (e.g., dugouts, vehicles, personnel, as seen in Pokrovsk drone strikes) and continue aggressive counter-battery fire against Russian artillery and MLRS (TOS, improvised MLRS). Analyze successful targeting methods. Prioritize fundraising and acquisition for critical equipment like re-transmitter drones for units like "Stryzh" battalion.
  5. MAINTAIN DNEPR RIVER PATROLS AND INTERDICTION CAPABILITIES. Continue successful operations to prevent Russian river crossings in Kherson, and monitor any increased Russian riverine training activity.
  6. IMPROVE PERSONNEL TRANSPORT SAFETY. Address and investigate the incident in Lviv Oblast regarding the mobilized serviceman to prevent recurrence and improve troop welfare. Investigate the motorcycle crash incident for lessons on tactical movement.
  7. MAINTAIN MINE WARFARE PROFICIENCY. Leverage and disseminate lessons learned from the successful SOF mine-laying operation (3x BTRs) to other units. Disseminate lessons from Ukrainian sapper successes in leading assaults.

• Information Operations (IO):

  1. IMMEDIATE & AGGRESSIVE: FORCEFULLY CONDEMN RUSSIAN "CHILD EXCHANGE" PROPOSAL AS WAR CRIME. Launch an immediate and relentless IO campaign to expose and condemn Russia's proposal to exchange Ukrainian children for POWs. Frame this as an unspeakable war crime, a violation of all international norms, and a clear indicator of the Russian regime's depravity. Mobilize international organizations (UN, UNICEF, ICRC) and human rights groups to issue strong condemnations.
  2. IMMEDIATE & AGGRESSIVE: COUNTER RUSSIAN NARRATIVES ON "US AID CESSATION," MIDDLE EAST "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS / "US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES," NUCLEAR THREATS, IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL (AND ITS DENIAL), "UKRAINIAN LOSSES," AND EXPLICIT ANTI-SEMITISM. FORCEFULLY DEBUNK "MASSIVE EXPLOSION" VIDEOS AS MISATTRIBUTED OR FALSE FLAGS. IMMEDIATELY EXPOSE "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS AS BLATANT FALSE FLAGS. CRITICALLY, IMMEDIATELY EXPOSE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" CLAIMS AS BLATANT FABRICATIONS. FORCEFULLY DEBUNK MEDINSKY'S MANIPULATED BODY EXCHANGE NUMBERS (6060 VS 1245) AND MO RF'S INCONSISTENT NUMBERS (1248 VS 1245). EXPOSE RUSSIAN MAXIMALIST DEMANDS AND PRE-EMPTIVE "PROVOCATION" NARRATIVES (INCLUDING BALTIC SEA FALSE FLAG AND "NUCLEAR UNCERTAINTY" GRAPHIC). HIGHLIGHT ZELENSKYY'S DIPLOMATIC VISITS. EXPOSE WAGNER IO CHANNELS AND DEBUNK AZERBAIJAN BORDER DISINFORMATION. PUBLICIZE UKRAINIAN COMMAND CHANGES. PUBLICIZE NEVINNOMYSSKY AZOT STRIKE. HIGHLIGHT RUSSIAN SHELLING OF CIVILIAN AREAS. EXPOSE RUSSIAN RELIGIOUS/ANTI-MIGRANT PROPAGANDA. PUBLICIZE ANTI-CORRUPTION SUCCESSES. EXPOSE RUSSIAN "HUMAN SHIELD" FALSE FLAGS. EXPOSE RUSSIAN DESTABILIZATION OF MOLDOVA. Proactively and forcefully counter the narrative that the US is stopping aid. Immediately debunk false TASS/Russian claims regarding Iranian "hypersonic" use and advanced AD defeat, and any fabricated claims of US-Iranian consultations or an "American-Israeli war" AND the specific unverified BDA/casualty claims, including US Embassy damage, and the high Israeli/Iranian casualty figures (e.g., 370+ missiles). FORCEFULLY CONDEMN THE INTRODUCTION OF OVERT ANTI-SEMITIC PROPAGANDA, ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH NUCLEAR THREATS, by Russian channels. IMMEDIATELY ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN DENIAL OF THE IRANIAN NPT WITHDRAWAL CLAIM, highlighting the previous amplification as evidence of Russian disinformation tactics. Immediately expose any "massive explosion" videos from Russian sources as misattributed or false flags, emphasizing Russian deception. MOST IMPORTANTLY, IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE'S CLAIM OF "UKRAINIAN MILITANTS TAKING RUSSIAN CIVILIANS HOSTAGE IN SUMY," PRESENTING IT AS A BLATANT FALSE FLAG OPERATION AND PRETEXT FOR ESCALATION. USE THE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" CLAIM AS ANOTHER PRIME EXAMPLE OF RUSSIAN DESPERATION AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO FABRICATE WAR CRIMES AND DIRECTLY TARGET US INTERESTS IN THE INFO SPACE. IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK MEDINSKY'S EXAGGERATED CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN BODY TRANSFERS (6060, plus 2239 projected), HIGHLIGHTING UKRAINE'S VERIFIABLE FIGURES (1245) AND THE INCONSISTENCY OF RUSSIAN OFFICIAL FIGURES (1248). Emphasize that Russia seeks to destabilize both regions to exhaust Western resources and attention, as evidenced by the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric. Highlight Ukrainian successes in inflicting Russian losses (e.g., successful drone defense, artillery engagements, high AD kill rates, FPV drone intercepts, successful agent arrests, deep strikes on Oryol, FPV truck strike, HIMARS on Makeyevka, DeepState's Pion strike, SOF BTRs, sapper ops, drone strikes in Sumy, reported Bryansk strike, WarGonzo dugout strike, motorcycle crash incident, drone strikes on personnel in Pokrovsk, and most importantly, the UAV attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot.) Expose the neglect of Russian war graves as a counter to their "patriotic" narrative. Expose any internal Russian corruption and Ukrainian successes in combating it (Kryvyi Rih, Lviv procurement scheme). Counter narratives regarding Ukrainian internal divisions (priests, language use, local political discontent like in Odesa). Promote positive stories of Ukrainian veteran support and societal resilience, especially rehabilitation efforts and reconstruction in frontline areas, and public health efforts (cholera prevention in Zaporizhzhia, water issues in Mariupol). Publicize Ukrainian government's digital services for veterans. Highlight Russian demands for Ukraine to disarm Western weapons as proof of aggressive intent. Publicize President Zelenskyy's visit to Austria and planned Trump meeting as evidence of continued international support. Use stories like 'Barny' to highlight the resolve of Ukrainian defenders. Expose Russian aviation safety issues. Publicize successful fundraising efforts. Expose the Wagner-linked "Condottiero™" channel as an influence operation. Immediately and forcefully debunk Alex Parker Returns' claim about the Azerbaijan-Iran border to counter disinformation on a sensitive logistical route. Publicly confirm and explain the changes in Ukrainian military command (OTU "Donetsk"). Highlight the 6 civilian deaths and 4 injuries from Russian shelling in Donetsk Oblast. Forcefully condemn the use of religious figures for anti-migrant/anti-Islam propaganda (Volenkor Kotenok's video). Immediately expose "Операция Z"'s false "human shield" accusation in Kupyansk. Launch a dedicated IO campaign exposing Russian attempts to destabilize Moldova, using the "Басурин о главном" video as clear evidence of foreign interference in sovereign states' domestic affairs.
  3. RAPID DEBUNKING OF MISINFORMATION. Maintain rapid response to immediately debunk unverified and sensationalized claims propagated by Russian state media and milbloggers (e.g., fabricated Israeli/US actions, rapidly escalating and unverified casualty figures, specific BDA claims, and aggressive territorial claims like "Dnipropetrovsk bridgehead" or "Sumy breakthrough," claimed "liberation" of Ulyanovka, Komar, and claims of Tehran residents leaving). Expose Russia's use of emotionally charged propaganda and anti-Semitic rhetoric, and nuclear threats.
  4. PROMOTE UKRAINIAN RESILIENCE & AD SUCCESSES: Highlight ongoing Ukrainian AD operations and any successful intercepts to reassure the public and international partners of continued defensive capabilities. Project local control and normalcy despite civilian casualties. Publicize formalized veteran support programs to boost morale and show national resilience. Publicize successful counter-intelligence operations and anti-corruption efforts. Publicly highlight official appointments (e.g., new Prosecutor General nominee) to demonstrate governmental stability. Promote civilian events like the Zaporizhzhia schoolchildren's sports achievement to showcase normalcy and resilience. Highlight the success of civilian fundraising for drones (STERNENKO's raffle) as a testament to national unity and resilience.
  5. HIGHLIGHT RUSSIAN ALLIANCES WITH PARIAH STATES & ROLE IN GLOBAL INSTABILITY. Emphasize that Russia directly benefits from and seeks to amplify and manipulate global instability, and is now using potentially unverified claims and narratives of US involvement (and fabricated US ties/BDA/casualties and anti-Semitic slurs) to further this aim. Highlight the use of North Korean materiel by Russian forces. Highlight the continued flow of Russian energy revenue from the EU. Highlight Russian exploitation of EU internal divisions (Hungary/Slovakia energy block, Paris Air Show incident). Condemn the use of combined Russian-Serbian flags for IO. Expose the purpose of large-scale Russian military exercises (Pacific Fleet) as global power projection and intimidation.

• Diplomatic/Inter-Agency:

  1. IMMEDIATE & PROACTIVE: ENGAGE KEY PARTNERS ON SUSTAINED SUPPORT AND COUNTERING RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC MANIPULATION AND AID NARRATIVES. Ukrainian diplomatic missions should immediately engage with US, EU, and other key partners to address "The Telegraph" report on aid cessation. Seek clarification and a unified, strong public message of continued robust support. Emphasize that such narratives are deliberate Russian attempts to sow discord and undermine support. Leverage the confirmed Trump-Zelenskyy meeting at the G7 summit and President Zelenskyy's visit to Austria to reinforce direct communication and continued high-level engagement.
  2. COORDINATE WITH ALLIES ON IO STRATEGY: Coordinate closely with allied IO agencies to ensure a unified and consistent counter-narrative to Russian disinformation, particularly regarding aid, global conflict, and the new, more extreme and manipulative narratives, including the direct attempt to draw the US into the Middle East conflict with fabricated claims and unverified BDA/casualties, the sensational claims of "hypersonic" use, claims of Iranian NPT withdrawal (and its denial), and the introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda and nuclear threats, and the "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic. Also coordinate response to Russian diplomatic actions in the Middle East (including Putin/Erdogan joint condemnation of Israel) and the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Iranian MFA calls to UNSC. Coordinate immediate debunking of any "massive explosion" videos identified as false flags/misattributed. Crucially, coordinate a unified and immediate diplomatic response to the Russian "hostage-taking" false flag claim, condemning it as a blatant fabrication designed to escalate. MOST CRITICALLY, COORDINATE IMMEDIATE, FORCEFUL DIPLOMATIC CONDEMNATION OF THE FABRICATED CLAIM OF "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" AND THE SVR'S CLAIM OF A FALSE FLAG "RUSSIAN TORPEDO ATTACK ON A US NAVY SHIP IN THE BALTIC SEA." Coordinate on exposing Medinsky's manipulation of body exchange numbers (6060, plus 2239 projected) and MO RF's inconsistency (1248) and compare to Ukrainian verified figures (1245). Coordinate to counter the Russian narrative on US-Russia diplomatic meeting cancellations. Coordinate with allies to address Russian state-aligned media promoting anti-migrant/anti-Islam rhetoric. MOST CRITICALLY, coordinate an immediate and unified international condemnation of Russia's proposal to exchange Ukrainian children for POWs, framing it as a grave war crime. Coordinate a unified response to Russia's "human shield" false flag accusation. Coordinate immediate diplomatic pressure on Russia regarding its destabilization efforts in Moldova.
  3. INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION OF CIVILIAN/INDUSTRIAL TARGETING AND RUSSIAN ANTI-SEMITIC/RELIGIOUS PROPAGANDA. Continue to highlight Russian strikes on civilian/industrial targets to maintain international pressure and secure further AD assistance. Simultaneously, seek strong international condemnation of Russia's use of overt anti-Semitic propaganda as a tool of information warfare. Crucially, seek international condemnation of Russia's use of religious figures for anti-migrant/anti-Islam incitement, framing it as a dangerous escalation of ideological warfare. Condemn Russia's punitive measures against citizens in Belgorod. Engage international partners regarding the Hungarian ruling party's "discreditation" campaign and the blocking of EU energy plans. Highlight the blocking of Israeli defense companies at the Paris Air Show and its broader implications. Condemn Russia's attempts to project power globally through military exercises while prosecuting an illegal war. Seek strong condemnation of Russia's heavy weaponry attacks on Zaporizhzhia frontline villages and towns and the recent civilian casualties in Donetsk Oblast. Reiterate international condemnation of any deliberate targeting of civilians or use of civilians as leverage.
  4. ENGAGE WITH INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS ON VETERAN SUPPORT & RECONSTRUCTION. Seek international assistance and partnerships for formal veteran support programs to ensure their sustainability and effectiveness. Actively solicit and manage international aid for reconstruction efforts in frontline regions like Zaporizhzhia.
  5. ADDRESS INTERNAL CORRUPTION WITH INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT. Seek international support and expertise for combating large-scale corruption, particularly when it impacts critical civilian infrastructure during wartime, as highlighted by the Kryvyi Rih case and the Lviv procurement scheme. This demonstrates Ukraine's commitment to good governance and strengthens its case for international aid.
  6. ADDRESS PUBLIC HEALTH RISKS IN CONFLICT ZONES. Coordinate with international humanitarian organizations (WHO, Red Cross) to address and mitigate public health risks such as cholera in front-line and occupied territories, advocating for safe access to water and sanitation. Highlight severe water supply issues in occupied Mariupol.
  7. ENGAGE BORDERING EU NATIONS ON SECURITY CONCERNS. Maintain close coordination with European countries bordering Russia that are preparing their hospitals for war, ensuring shared intelligence and readiness.