Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME OF REPORT: 16 JUN 25 / 13:38 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 16 JUN 25 / 13:08 ZULU - 16 JUN 25 / 13:38 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk CLASSIFICATION: TOP SECRET // ORCON // NOFORN

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Ukraine Operational Area:
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
    • Russian milblogger "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" posts tactical map imagery labeled "Запорожское направление" (Zaporizhzhia direction). While the map is unverified, it signifies Russian focus on this axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for intent, LOW for precise location/control).
    • Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issues a general "ATTENTION" alert, indicating ongoing local threat perception. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Donetsk Region:
    • "Север.Реалии" reports 6 civilians killed and 4 wounded in Russian shelling in Donetsk Oblast over the past day. ASTRA amplifies this, confirming continued high-intensity combat impact on civilian populations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • "Воин DV" posts an update titled "SITUATION IN THE SOUTH-DONETSK DIRECTION," signaling active combat in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for intent, LOW for specifics).
  • Kharkiv/Sumy: Air Force of Ukraine (Повітряні Сили ЗС України) issues a ballistic missile threat from the north-east, likely targeting Kharkiv/Sumy/Poltava/Dnipro. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Ukraine:
    • Lviv Oblast: Office of the Prosecutor General reports a large-scale scheme to procure equipment for the army with losses of approximately 64 million UAH (c. $1.6M). This indicates ongoing efforts to combat corruption within military procurement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Coordination Staff on POWs: Holds a meeting with families of the 71st Separate Jaeger Brigade (Air Assault Troops). This highlights ongoing efforts to support families of servicemen, particularly those captured. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Zaporizhzhia (Civilian): Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration celebrates local schoolchildren placing third in a national sports competition, a deliberate counter-narrative promoting civilian normalcy and morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • General Ukrainian Context: "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports that European countries bordering Russia are preparing their hospitals for war, citing Politico. This reflects a broader regional concern about Russian aggression. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Internal Affairs/Occupied Territories/External:
  • Russia (Internal):
    • ASTRA reports that "Nevinnomyssky Azot" operations (fertilizer plant) were suspended after a UAV attack on June 14. This is a significant blow to Russian industrial capacity and indicates successful Ukrainian deep strikes against strategic targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • TASS reports the Ministry of Internal Affairs denies information about a new Russian passport design. This is an internal administrative detail, reflecting government efforts to control information, even on mundane topics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • "Филолог в засаде" (Russian milblogger) discusses the widespread, unresolved problem of credit borrowing in Russia. This highlights domestic economic issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • "Два майора" (Russian milblogger) posts an image with the caption "Voronezh," without further context. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for post, LOW for content).
  • International Diplomacy (Russia-US): Alex Parker Returns (Russian milblogger) reports Zakharova's statement that a meeting between Russia and the US to resolve bilateral issues was canceled by the American side. This reinforces the previous ISR's assessment of deteriorating US-Russia diplomatic ties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Middle East (Iran-Israel):
    • TASS reports an IRGC commander's advisor stated Iran has not fully used its missile potential against Israel. This is a clear rhetorical escalation, likely aimed at deterring further Israeli action and projecting Iranian power. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • "Операция Z" (Russian milblogger) amplifies a CNN report (via "Военкоры Русской Весны") suggesting Trump doesn't want to get further involved in the Iran-Israel war but "it might be difficult to stay out." This confirms Russia's continued efforts to frame the Middle East conflict as a US problem, potentially diverting US attention and resources from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Operations (IO) & Narratives:
    • Disinformation on Baltic Sea Sabotage (Russian False Flag): "РБК-Україна" reports Russia launched a fake narrative about Ukraine and Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea. This confirms Russia's pre-emptive false flag narratives (as identified in previous ISR CR 17), designed to create pretexts for future actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Deep State Map Propaganda: "Рыбарь" (Russian milblogger) posts an infographic titled "Digital Generals," promoting a narrative about the US military-industrial complex and AI development, signaling continued Russian focus on shaping perceptions of Western military technological superiority and its ethical implications. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Internal Russian Propaganda (Military Justice): "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" (Russian milblogger) posts videos showing Russian Military Police escorting alleged Ukrainian servicemen into court, accused of "terrorist acts" in Kursk Oblast, admitting guilt. This is a clear propaganda piece for internal Russian consumption, aiming to demonstrate control, justice, and deter further cross-border activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Anti-Migrant/Anti-Islam Propaganda (Religious Cover): "Военкор Котенок" (Russian milblogger) posts a video of Orthodox priests delivering sermons against migrants and Muslims ("Saracens"), linking them to terrorism and Christian persecution in Syria and Russia. This is a worrying escalation of religious/ideological warfare, potentially fostering xenophobia and consolidating domestic support for aggressive policies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Ukrainian Internal Sentiment: STERNENKO posts a video of critical public opinion against a mayor (Trukhanov) in an urban setting. While civilian, this indicates internal political discourse and potential for social unrest. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Body Repatriation Update: "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reports Ukraine's Interior Minister Igor Klymenko states Russia transferred bodies of both Ukrainian and Russian military personnel, often in a "highly mutilated condition" and in "different bags," sometimes in "several stages." This provides crucial, grim details on body exchanges and their condition. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Russian Military Prowess (Drone Operators): MoD Russia posts a video titled "Drone operators in action," showing an FPV drone strike on a concealed Russian T-80BV tank, claiming destruction. This is likely miscaptioned/misleading, as Russian MoD rarely publicizes its own losses. This appears to be a Ukrainian FPV strike on a Russian tank, which the Russian MoD is attempting to appropriate or recontextualize. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for video, LOW for Russian MoD's caption veracity).
    • Ukraine Diplomatic Messaging: РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy plans to discuss the purchase of the next defense package with Trump. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS amplifies this. This signals Ukrainian proactive diplomatic efforts to secure continued aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Successful FPV drone operations (MoD Russia's miscaptioned video) indicate suitable weather conditions for UAV deployment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The reported UAV attack on "Nevinnomyssky Azot" (ASTRA) suggests favorable conditions for long-range drone strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The extensive damage and fire aftermath depicted in ASTRA's images from Donetsk Oblast suggest clear conditions allowing for precision shelling and fire spread. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces: Actively engaged in defensive operations in Donetsk (6 casualties from shelling) and Zaporizhzhia (Russian milblogger's map imagery). Conducting successful deep strikes against Russian industrial targets (Nevinnomyssky Azot). Actively combating internal corruption within procurement (Lviv Oblast). Proactive in diplomatic efforts to secure future aid (Zelenskyy-Trump meeting). Maintaining active air defense against ballistic missile threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Coordinating on POW and KIA issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces: Maintaining offensive pressure, particularly on the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes. Executing successful long-range UAV strikes against critical industrial targets (Nevinnomyssky Azot). Engaging in high-intensity information warfare, including false flag narratives (Baltic Sea), religious/anti-migrant propaganda, and internal "justice" narratives. Escalating rhetorical threats in the Middle East. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Employing FPV drones (MoD Russia video implies). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RUSSIA FOCUSED)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA):

• Capabilities (Russia):

  • Ground Offensive/Artillery: Demonstrated capability to inflict significant civilian casualties through shelling in Donetsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Continues to operate on Zaporizhzhia and South-Donetsk axes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Deep Strike/Aerial Attack: Proven capability to conduct successful, operationally significant long-range UAV strikes against Russian industrial targets (Nevinnomyssky Azot). Maintains ballistic missile threat from north-east. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Warfare - Diversion, Discreditation, Division, Normalization, Amplification, Radicalization, Pretext Generation:
    • Fabricating False Flags: Demonstrated capability to create pre-emptive false flag narratives (Ukraine/Britain Baltic Sea sabotage) to justify future aggression or escalate rhetoric. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Deepening Ideological Radicalization: Now overtly using religious rhetoric (Orthodox priests) to fuel anti-migrant and anti-Islam sentiment, potentially as a means to solidify internal support and justify broader military actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Propagating "Justice" Narratives: Continues to produce and disseminate propaganda videos of alleged Ukrainian saboteurs confessing to crimes, aiming to project internal stability and justify actions against Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Exploiting Global Crises: Continues to leverage the Middle East conflict, amplifying rhetorical threats from Iran (TASS on Iran's unutilized missile potential) and framing it as a US problem (Trump-CNN report). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Information Control: Continues to control internal narratives even on mundane topics (passport design). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Narrative Manipulation of Tactical Engagements: As seen in the MoD Russia video, may attempt to appropriate or miscaption Ukrainian tactical successes as their own, or generalize them. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Logistics & Sustainment: Ability to conduct sustained shelling and long-range drone strikes implies continued supply chains for munitions and UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Command and Control (C2): Operational C2 continues to direct ground and aerial strikes. IO C2 remains highly synchronized and capable of complex, multi-layered narrative generation, even resorting to more extreme ideological themes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

• Intentions (Russia):

  • Inflict Casualties and Degrade Ukrainian Resolve: Continue high-intensity shelling of civilian areas in Donetsk to inflict casualties and undermine civilian morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Maintain Pressure on Active Fronts: Sustain ground and artillery pressure on Zaporizhzhia and South-Donetsk axes to achieve incremental gains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Disrupt Ukrainian Strategic Capabilities: Continue deep strikes against industrial and possibly military targets to degrade Ukraine's ability to wage war and sustain its economy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Manipulate Global Perceptions & Divert Attention: Continue to frame global conflicts (Middle East) as Western failures to divert attention from Ukraine and sow discord among allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Legitimize Actions Through False Pretexts: Increasingly use pre-emptive false flag narratives to create justification for future escalations or to pre-emptively counter Ukrainian accusations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Consolidate Domestic Support through Ideological Radicalization: Use religious and anti-migrant narratives to rally internal support, dehumanize adversaries, and potentially justify more extreme measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Project Strength and Control: Use propaganda showcasing military justice and denying mundane internal issues to project an image of stability and effective governance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Targeting of Strategic Industrial Sites in Russian Territory (Ukranian Adaptation): The successful UAV attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot (fertilizer plant) demonstrates a clear Ukrainian tactical adaptation and capability to strike high-value, deep Russian industrial targets. This implies expanded range and improved targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Escalation of IO to Overt Religious/Ethnic Themes (Russian Adaptation): The emergence of Orthodox priests in Russian state-aligned media promoting anti-migrant and anti-Islam rhetoric, linking it to "terror" and Christian persecution, marks a significant, dangerous tactical adaptation in Russian information warfare, moving towards more explicit ideological incitement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Proactive False Flag Narratives (Russian Adaptation): The immediate reporting by Russia of fabricated "Ukrainian/British sabotage" in the Baltic Sea demonstrates a shift towards proactive, rather than reactive, false flag generation, aimed at setting conditions for future actions or preempting accusations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Body Repatriation Conditions (Information Adaptation): The detailed report from Ukraine's Interior Minister regarding the "mutilated condition" and disaggregated nature of transferred bodies provides critical insight into the grim realities of these exchanges, which Russia likely attempts to obscure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Misappropriation of Enemy Tactical Video (Russian IO Adaptation): The MoD Russia video showing an FPV strike on a T-80BV (likely a Ukrainian strike on a Russian tank) under a caption implying general "drone operators in action" reflects an adaptation to manipulate and reframe combat footage for their own narrative, even if it means subtly admitting losses. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• Continued shelling and deep strike capabilities suggest ongoing, albeit potentially strained, supply lines for Russian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The successful Ukrainian deep strike on Nevinnomyssky Azot will likely impact Russian industrial output, particularly in the agricultural sector (fertilizer production), potentially affecting long-term sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Ukraine's ability to conduct long-range UAV strikes (Nevinnomyssky Azot) indicates sustained logistical support for its own drone programs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The internal Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts in military procurement (Lviv Oblast) highlight ongoing challenges but also efforts to improve logistical efficiency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The "problem of credit borrowing" discussed by a Russian milblogger hints at underlying economic vulnerabilities that could impact long-term sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian Military C2: Continues to direct high-intensity shelling and long-range precision strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The fact that a fertilizer plant was successfully targeted suggests intelligence-driven C2 for Ukrainian deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian IO/Diplomatic C2: Highly effective and adaptive, rapidly generating and disseminating complex, multi-layered narratives, including false flags and ideologically charged propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The quick denial of a new passport design shows tight control over internal information. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Military C2: Continues to direct defensive operations and successful deep strikes. Engagement in POW/KIA issues shows administrative C2 effectiveness. The anti-corruption efforts demonstrate internal governance effectiveness within the military-industrial complex. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Air Force C2 effectively issues ballistic missile threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UKRAINIAN FOCUSED)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Ukrainian forces are actively defending against heavy shelling in Donetsk and are postured to address threats on the Zaporizhzhia axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Air Defense remains active and alert to ballistic missile threats from the north-east. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Long-range strike capabilities are demonstrated by the successful UAV attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot, showcasing offensive readiness and reach. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Anti-corruption efforts within military procurement (Lviv Oblast) indicate a commitment to improving readiness and resource management. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Diplomatic posture is proactive, seeking continued and expanded Western aid (Zelenskyy-Trump meeting). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Success (Deep Strike): Ukrainian forces successfully executed a UAV attack on "Nevinnomyssky Azot," a significant industrial target in Russia, causing a suspension of operations. This is a major tactical and strategic success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Anti-Corruption): The exposure of a 64 million UAH procurement scheme in Lviv Oblast demonstrates effective anti-corruption efforts, contributing to long-term military efficiency. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Diplomatic Proactivity): President Zelenskyy's stated intent to discuss the next defense package with Trump indicates proactive and effective diplomatic engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Information Exposure): Ukrainian reporting on Russia's false flag narrative (Baltic Sea) and the grim details of body repatriation effectively counters Russian disinformation and highlights the realities of the conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Civilian Casualties): Russian shelling in Donetsk Oblast caused 6 civilian deaths and 4 injuries, representing a continued tragic impact on the civilian population. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Information Warfare): Russia's continued success in exploiting global crises (Middle East) and generating complex disinformation campaigns (false flags, anti-Semitic/religious incitement) represents a significant ongoing challenge in the information environment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Continued heavy shelling and ballistic missile threats necessitate robust and sustained air defense capabilities, including interceptors and advanced systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Long-range UAV capabilities require consistent supply of components, maintenance, and operator training. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Anti-corruption efforts require dedicated investigative resources and political will. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The human cost of the conflict, as evidenced by civilian casualties and body repatriations, underscores the immense need for humanitarian aid, medical supplies, and psychological support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Sustained diplomatic efforts require political capital and active engagement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Narratives:
  • Industrial Sabotage/Terrorism Blame-Shifting: ASTRA's report on the Nevinnomyssky Azot UAV attack, while factual, will likely be framed by Russia as a "terrorist act" by Ukraine, intended to justify retaliatory strikes or escalate rhetoric. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Proactive False Flags/Pretexts: The specific claim reported by "РБК-Україна" that Russia is pushing a narrative of Ukraine/Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea is a classic pre-emptive false flag, designed to create a pretext for future Russian actions or to deflect blame. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Deepening Ideological / Religious Extremism: "Военкор Котенок" 's video of Orthodox priests demonizing migrants and Muslims, linking them to "terror," represents a dangerous escalation in Russian information warfare, aiming to radicalize domestic audiences and justify broader aggression through a religious lens. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Normalizing "Justice" / Deterring Infiltration: The "Поддубный" videos of alleged Ukrainian saboteurs confessing in Russian courts serve to project a narrative of effective internal security, swift justice, and deter further cross-border infiltration, particularly in border regions like Kursk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Diverting Attention to Middle East / Blaming US: Russian milbloggers continue to amplify Iranian rhetoric about untapped missile potential (TASS) and frame the Israel-Iran conflict as an unavoidable US entanglement (Operation Z amplifying CNN), aiming to divert Western resources and attention from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Projection of Strength through Misappropriation: The MoD Russia video, likely a Ukrainian FPV strike on a Russian tank, if presented as a general "drone operators in action" from a Russian perspective, aims to appropriate success and project general Russian military competence, even if it subtly reveals losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Internal Control/Normalcy: TASS denying passport redesign and "Филолог в засаде" discussing credit problems are examples of Russian media focusing on internal, mundane issues or administrative corrections to project an image of normalcy and stable governance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Counter-Narratives:
  • Exposing Russian Atrocities/Truths: "Север.Реалии" and ASTRA's reporting on civilian casualties in Donetsk directly counters Russian claims of precision strikes and highlights the human cost of the conflict. "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reporting on the grim reality of body repatriation (mutilated bodies, fragmented transfers) provides a stark, factual counter to any Russian attempts to sanitize the process. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Highlighting Russian Disinformation: "РБК-Україна" actively exposes Russia's false flag narratives (Baltic Sea sabotage) to pre-empt their impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Promoting Resilience & Civilian Life: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration showcasing schoolchildren's sports achievements is a clear, deliberate effort to promote civilian morale and project normalcy despite the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Demonstrating Governance & Anti-Corruption: The Office of the Prosecutor General's report on the Lviv procurement scheme highlights Ukraine's commitment to rule of law and internal reforms, crucial for international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Diplomatic Engagement: "РБК-Україна" and "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" actively report on Zelenskyy's planned meeting with Trump to discuss defense packages, reinforcing the narrative of continued Western support and proactive Ukrainian leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Regional Security Concerns: "Оперативний ЗСУ" reporting on European countries preparing hospitals for war reinforces the broader regional threat posed by Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Addressing Internal Issues Transparently: STERNENKO's video on public sentiment against a mayor, while internal, demonstrates open discussion of political issues, contrasting with Russia's tighter control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian Morale: Sustained heavy shelling and civilian casualties (Donetsk) will continue to test morale. However, successful deep strikes (Nevinnomyssky Azot), transparent anti-corruption efforts (Lviv), proactive diplomacy (Zelenskyy-Trump), and efforts to maintain civilian normalcy (Zaporizhzhia sports event) will bolster national resolve and confidence in the government. The grim details on body repatriation from Ukraine's Interior Minister, while difficult, may reinforce a sense of shared sacrifice and determination to fight. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Morale: Russian IO aims to solidify domestic support by promoting narratives of justice (Kursk trials), projecting internal stability (passport denial, mundane issues), and leveraging religious/ethnic tensions (anti-migrant sermons). Successful Ukrainian deep strikes on industrial targets (Nevinnomyssky Azot) could potentially undermine Russian public confidence in their government's ability to protect the homeland. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent, MEDIUM for actual impact on morale).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Continued EU/NATO Concerns: The report of bordering European countries preparing hospitals for war (Оперативний ЗСУ) signifies ongoing high-level concern within the EU/NATO about Russia's aggressive posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• US-Russia Diplomatic Freeze: The cancellation of bilateral US-Russia meetings (Alex Parker Returns) confirms continued diplomatic stagnation, limiting direct de-escalation channels. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Efforts to Secure Aid: President Zelenskyy's planned meeting with Trump to discuss defense packages (РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) underscores Ukraine's continued focus on securing vital international military assistance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Middle East as Diversion: Russia's continued amplification of Iranian rhetorical threats and framing of the Israel-Iran conflict as a US problem (TASS, Операция Z) demonstrates an ongoing strategic effort to divert international attention and resources from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Multi-Domain Pressure on Frontlines: Russia will maintain continuous, heavy shelling of Ukrainian frontline positions and civilian areas in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, aiming to degrade morale and infrastructure. Ground probes and localized assaults will continue on these and the South-Donetsk axes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intensified Long-Range Strike Campaign: Russia will likely increase the frequency and targeting scope of UAV and potentially ballistic missile strikes against Ukrainian industrial, energy, and logistics targets, especially in response to successful Ukrainian deep strikes (e.g., Nevinnomyssky Azot). Ballistic missile threats from the north-east will persist. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Escalated and Diversified Information Operations: Russia will continue to generate and amplify false flag narratives (e.g., Baltic Sea sabotage) to create pretexts for its actions. Expect increased use of ideologically charged propaganda, potentially leveraging religious figures, to solidify domestic support and further demonize Ukraine/West. Manipulation of combat footage and casualty figures will continue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Continued Diplomatic Maneuvering and Blame-Shifting: Russia will continue to portray itself as a victim of Western aggression or an honest broker in other conflicts, shifting blame for diplomatic impasses and global instability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Massive Coordinated Deep Strike and Ground Offensive Preceded by High-Impact False Flag/Escalatory Rhetoric: Russia launches a strategically coordinated, multi-axis ground offensive (e.g., a renewed major push on one of the less active axes like Sumy or a breakthrough attempt on a major Donetsk axis) supported by a massed wave of precision missile and drone strikes targeting critical Ukrainian military-industrial complexes, C2 nodes, and major energy infrastructure nationwide. This offensive would be immediately preceded by or synchronized with a highly impactful, demonstrably false flag operation (e.g., a fabricated major chemical attack blamed on Ukraine, a direct attack on Russian territory with significant casualties attributed to Ukraine/NATO, or a fabricated "major environmental disaster" caused by "Ukrainian sabotage"). This would be accompanied by extreme escalatory rhetoric from Moscow, potentially including direct threats of non-conventional responses or the explicit declaration of "war" to enable total mobilization, aimed at coercing Western powers into freezing the conflict on Russian terms, while simultaneously sowing maximum chaos and distraction on the global stage, possibly through further escalation of rhetoric or proxy actions in the Middle East. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 1-6 hours):
  • ISR: Prioritize collection to verify additional damage from the Nevinnomyssky Azot UAV attack and any related Russian retaliatory strikes or heightened rhetoric. Continue to monitor Russian tactical movements on the Zaporizhzhia and South-Donetsk axes for specific unit identifications or changes in posture. Intensify monitoring of Russian milblogger and state media channels for new false flag narratives or amplification of existing ones, especially regarding the Baltic Sea sabotage claims and the anti-migrant/religious rhetoric. Monitor for any escalation of Iranian rhetorical threats or actions, and their amplification by Russia.
  • IO: Commanders must prepare to highlight the success of Ukrainian deep strikes (Nevinnomyssky Azot) and civilian casualties from Russian shelling in Donetsk. Ukrainian channels should continue to publicize their anti-corruption efforts and transparent reporting on POW/KIA exchanges. Proactively debunk Russian false flag narratives (Baltic Sea sabotage) and condemn the use of religious/ethnic hate speech. Publicize President Zelenskyy's continued diplomatic engagements to reinforce international support and the need for continued defense packages.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• GAP 1: VERIFICATION OF "THE TELEGRAPH" REPORT ON US AID CESSATION (CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE, HYPER-PRIORITY, RETAINED): Independent, all-source verification of the "The Telegraph" report amplified by Russian sources regarding the cessation of US military aid to Ukraine. Assess the type, quantity, and operational impact of any such claims on Ukrainian defense capabilities.
  • COLLECTION REQUIREMENT (CR): Prioritize SIGINT, OSINT (direct source review of "The Telegraph" article for context, content, and accuracy), IMINT, and HUMINT from US, NATO, and Ukrainian sources to confirm or refute these reports. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 2: VERIFICATION OF ISRAELI/IRANIAN IMPACTS & RUSSIAN CLAIMS ON IRANIAN "HYPERSONIC" USE / AD DEFEAT / US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES / NUCLEAR THREATS / IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL / IRANIAN MFA UNSC PUSH, AND "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" / DECEPTIVE "APOCALYPSE" VIDEOS / IRANIAN UNUSED MISSILE POTENTIAL (CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE, UPDATED FOCUS, RETAINED): Independent, all-source verification of all specific impact claims in Israel and the reconciliation of conflicting casualty figures. Critically, assess the veracity of claims of Iranian "hypersonic" missile use and "new methods" to defeat Israeli air defenses, as well as claims of US Embassy damage in Tel Aviv and the shooting down of a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. Verify the claim of THAAD self-destruction due to Iranian hacking. Verify the veracity of Colonelcassad's claim of 370+ Iranian ballistic missiles. Verify claims of a deceased IRGC intelligence deputy, and the TASS report of 8 Iranian military personnel killed in Khomein. Additionally, verify Rybar's claims of US refueling aircraft redeployment and changes in communication patterns for sea-based cruise missiles. Assess the specific impact and intent of the re-introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda and nuclear threats by Russian state-aligned channels, as well as the impact of direct Russian diplomatic actions (citizen warnings, embassy evacuation consideration, calls for UNSC condemnation of Israel, Putin/Erdogan condemnation of Israel). CONFIRM AND ANALYZE THE RUSSIAN DENIAL OF THE IRANIAN PARLIAMENT VOTE TO WITHDRAW FROM NPT. Verify claims of Tehran residents leaving and their true sentiment. Verify the execution of "Mossad agent" Ismail Fikri in Iran. Critically, analyze the source and intent of Kotsnews' "nuclear apocalypse" videos, distinguishing between genuine AD activity, fireworks, or fabricated imagery. Investigate the meaning and implication of Rybar's "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic and its reference to the NPT. Assess Colonelcassad's imagery of "Bid-Khanak army base" for BDA. Critically assess the TASS report of an IRGC advisor stating Iran has not fully used its missile potential against Israel – verify the source and intent of this rhetorical escalation.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (cross-referencing with Israeli official reports, international news agencies, US official statements, IAEA), IMINT (satellite imagery post-strike), and HUMINT from Israeli and US sources. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 3: RUSSIAN INTENT & FORCE DISPOSITION ON NORTHERN AXIS (CRITICAL, RETAINED, NEW FOCUS ON SUMY): Verification of reports of Russian troop movements to Belarus. Assess if the sustained Russian presence in Kursk border region indicates a future offensive push. Specifically assess the nature, scale, and intent of renewed Russian assault attempts on Andriivka in Sumy Oblast and other cross-border activity in Sumy, and the implications of increased KAB and drone attacks on Sumy/eastern Kharkiv. Verify the intent and scale of ballistic missile threat from north-east (Air Force of Ukraine alert).
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT, SIGINT, and HUMINT on Russian force composition, logistics build-up, and intent on the Belarus border, Kursk, and Sumy Oblast. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 4: UKRAINIAN BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA) FROM RECENT DEEP STRIKES (CRITICAL, ONGOING): Full extent of damage and operational impact from recent Russian deep strikes on Ukrainian C2, logistics, and industrial sites (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk industrial enterprise from previous ISR), and civilian areas (Kyiv, Kharkiv). Also, full BDA of claimed Russian strikes on Ukrainian dugout/UAV control point near Mirnoye. Specifically, verify Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian UAV command post in Kherson, and assess the operational impact. Assess the full extent of damage and personnel losses to the M113 APC in Donetsk. Assess the impact of claimed Russian strikes on a Ukrainian military-industrial enterprise, training center, and AD radar. Specifically, assess the BDA of the FPV strike on the Ukrainian military truck (Ural/Kamaz), the KAB strikes in Khotin Hromada, Sumy Oblast, the HIMARS strike in Makeyevka (including convoy composition and casualties), and the drone strike on the Russian Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer. Verify the impact of the Ukrainian SOF mine-laying operation (3x BTRs) and the Ukrainian sapper operation near Bayrak village. Investigate the veracity and BDA of the claimed Russian strike on "Kyiv-60" enterprise with "two dozen attack UAVs." Determine the cause and full impact of the large industrial fire in Rivne, and if it was enemy-caused. Assess the BDA of the Su-25 strikes claimed by MoD Russia. Critically, verify Russian losses claimed by Khorne Group 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade during assaults on Andriivka, Sumy Oblast, and BDA of Ukrainian drone strikes on personnel/vehicles in Sumy. Verify Russian claims of FPV strike on Ukrainian buggy and "Ranger" disappearance from Sumy. Assess the BDA of the claimed Ukrainian airstrike on Russian MoD positions in Bryansk Oblast. Assess the BDA of WarGonzo's claimed drone strike on a dugout on the Zaporizhzhia Front. Assess the full BDA of heavy weapon strikes on Zaporizhzhia frontline villages and towns. Assess the BDA of Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian personnel on the Pokrovsk axis (STERNENKO video). Critically, assess the full BDA and operational impact of the UAV attack on "Nevinnomyssky Azot" (fertilizer plant) in Russia, including the extent of damage and duration of suspension. Verify the veracity of the MoD Russia video purporting to show "drone operators in action" - specifically, if it is a miscaptioned Ukrainian FPV strike on a Russian T-80BV tank.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from affected units, OSINT (local reports, social media analysis), and IMINT (satellite imagery analysis if available) to determine operational impact and identify vulnerabilities. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 5: RUSSIAN ROLE IN ISRAEL-IRAN ESCALATION (CRITICAL, RETAINED, NEW FOCUS ON "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS, ANTI-SEMITISM, NUCLEAR THREATS, NPT WITHDRAWAL, AND DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE, AND POTENTIAL FALSE FLAGS, AND FABRICATED ATTACKS ON US ASSETS, AND JOINT CONDEMNATION OF ISRAEL, AND AMPLIFICATION OF PAKISTAN'S STANCE, AND IRAN'S "UNUSED MISSILE POTENTIAL" RHETORIC): Assess the extent of direct or indirect Russian involvement in instigating or facilitating the recent missile launches from Iran towards Israel, beyond mere amplification and narrative manipulation. Is Russia providing intelligence, materiel, or political cover? Specifically, analyze the motivation and target audience for the amplification of "hypersonic" claims, nuclear threats, the introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda, and the initial (and now denied) claim of Iranian NPT withdrawal by Russian state-aligned channels, as well as the impact of official Russian diplomatic warnings/evacuations, the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Putin/Erdogan's joint condemnation of Israel. Analyze the impact of Russian retractions of false claims. Critically, investigate the origin and intent of the "massive explosion" videos pushed by Russian channels, assessing if they are misattributed or false flags designed to sow fear or project exaggerated power. Investigate the veracity and intent of the claim of "US Embassy damage in Tel Aviv" as a fabricated pretext. Assess the impact of Israel's internal travel restrictions and the blocking of Israeli defense companies at the Paris Air Show, and Russia's leveraging of these events. Analyze the implications of Rybar's "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic. Analyze Colonelcassad's amplification of Pakistan's stance on the conflict. Analyze the TASS report of an IRGC advisor stating Iran has not fully used its missile potential against Israel - is this an Iranian, Russian, or joint rhetorical escalation?
  • CR: Prioritize SIGINT, HUMINT, and OSINT on Russia-Iran communications and coordination, and US military movements in the region. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 6: VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN TACTICAL GAINS AND UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Independent verification of Russian claims of "full clearing" of Malynivka (Ulyanovka), advances near Burlatske and Novopol, and Pushilin's claim of deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Pokrovsk. Critically, verify the Russian claim of Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Komar area to Voskresenka. Verify Russian claims of destruction of AFU equipment at Novotoretskoye. Assess the veracity of the Russian-produced "Pace of Offensive Operation" chart and its data. Verify claimed "liberation" of Ulyanovka (Malynivka) and Komar settlement. Verify Russian claims of advances on Andriivka, Sumy Oblast, and any related Russian claims of Ukrainian unit withdrawals. Assess the implications of the "summer revitalization" on seven axes for Ukrainian force distribution. Verify the true tactical situation and any gains/losses in frontline Zaporizhzhia villages and towns. Verify the specific tactical situation on the "South-Donetsk direction" and "Zaporizhzhia direction" as implied by Russian milbloggers' posts.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from Ukrainian units in the area, OSINT (local reports, geolocated video/photos), and IMINT. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 7: VERACITY AND INTENT OF RUSSIAN "HOSTAGE-TAKING" AND "TERRORIST ATTACK" CLAIMS / BALTIC SEA FALSE FLAG (CRITICAL, UPDATED): Immediately verify the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of Ukrainian militants taking Kursk Oblast residents hostage in Sumy. Assess if this is a legitimate criminal investigation or a fabricated pretext for further Russian aggression or information operations. Also, analyze the intent and specific targets implied by Поддубный's claim that "Zelenskyy's regime is preparing terrorist attacks." Critically, investigate the origin and intent of the Russian-amplified "fake" about Ukraine/Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT (from Ukrainian sources, local Sumy residents), OSINT (cross-referencing with independent media, local government statements), SIGINT (monitoring Russian communications related to this claim). (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 8: RUSSIAN TACTICAL UAV SUPPLY SHORTFALLS AND FUNDRAISING (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Determine if the crowdfunding appeals for specific drone models by Russian units (VDV, Zaporozhye infantry, Paratroopers) or general "Summer Campaign 2025" fundraisers indicate systemic logistical issues or localized shortages. Assess the scale of these shortfalls and their impact on Russian tactical reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. Investigate the Avito listing of an EW system from Belgorod Oblast for indications of internal corruption or supply chain issues. Assess the impact of mobile internet issues in LNR on Russian tactical UAV operations. Track specific requests for tactical equipment, like the "Kula-4" drone analyzer and 250cc motorcycles, and assess if these are widespread needs or isolated unit-level deficiencies. Analyze the significance of crowdfunding specifically for Mavic 3T/3 Pro drones. Investigate the implications of the Russian airline engine cowling detachment on aviation safety/maintenance/supply. Verify if the MoD Russia video of an FPV strike (likely Ukrainian) implies a need for better FPV counter-measures or different FPV types for Russia.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (monitoring further crowdfunding appeals, social media analysis of Russian military personnel discussions), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 9: VERACITY OF RUSSIAN "TERRORIST" ARRESTS / ANTI-MIGRANT PROPAGANDA (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Independent verification of the details and context surrounding the FSB's claimed arrest of a "Kyiv agent" in Kherson Oblast. Assess whether this is a legitimate counter-terrorism operation or a propaganda fabrication. Assess the veracity of the claim regarding priests being "victims of TCC". Verify the veracity of the Mash na Donbasse claim of a Ukrainian "national battalion fighter" being "convicted" after firing on Russian troops. Verify the SBU's detention of an "informant of the occupiers" in Slovyansk. Critically, investigate the origin, reach, and intent of the "Военкор Котенок" video featuring Orthodox priests promoting anti-migrant and anti-Islam narratives – assess if this is a state-orchestrated information operation to radicalize domestic audiences.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT, OSINT (local reports, independent media), and review of Russian methodology. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 10: DETAILS OF POW EXCHANGES AND BODY REPATRIATION (LOW, UPDATED): Verify numbers, conditions, and composition of personnel involved in claimed POW exchanges, particularly Alex Parker's claim of a 6000:27 ratio. Critically, verify Medinsky's claim of 6060 Ukrainian bodies transferred to Russia and 78 Russian bodies received from Ukraine, and his new projection of 2239 more Ukrainian bodies to be transferred. Compare and contrast with MO RF's later, conflicting claims of 1248 Ukrainian bodies transferred and 51 Russian bodies received. Verify the numbers and specific conditions of Russian military bodies transferred to Ukraine, as reported by Ukraine's Interior Minister Igor Klymenko (mutilated, in different bags, multi-stage transfers).
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (Ukrainian official reports, international organizations) and HUMINT (from released personnel). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 11: USE OF NORTH KOREAN MATERIEL (LOW, NEW): Assess the prevalence and impact of North Korean weapons systems (e.g., Type 75 MLRS) in the Russian armed forces.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (imagery analysis), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 12: RUSSIAN DNIEPER RIVER CROSSING CAPABILITIES/INTENT (LOW, NEW): Assess the scale, frequency, and intent behind reported Russian training exercises for Dnieper river crossings. Is this a genuine preparation for a large-scale offensive, or a localized probing/training exercise?
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite imagery of training areas), SIGINT (communications regarding riverine operations), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 13: IMPACT OF RUSSIAN/BELARUSIAN FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS (LOW, NEW): Assess the strategic and economic impact of continued international flight cancellations to/from Russia and Belarus. Does this indicate worsening international isolation or specific security concerns? Assess the purpose and impact of Novosti Moskvy's propagation of videos of damaged civilian aircraft engines, and ASTRA's report on engine cowling detachment.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (airline announcements, travel advisories, economic reports). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 14: RUSSIAN USE OF AZERBAIJAN AS LOGISTICAL/DIPLOMATIC CORRIDOR (CRITICAL, UPDATED): Assess the full scope and purpose of the confirmed new transit route via Baku for Russian personnel and potentially materiel from Iran. Is this a one-off evacuation or the establishment of a strategic corridor for personnel and/or materiel from Iran? The latest crossing of 225 more Russians confirms ongoing use. Critically, investigate Alex Parker Returns' explicit claim that "Azerbaijan closed the border with Iran back in 2020," attempting to debunk this as disinformation.
  • CR: Prioritize SIGINT, HUMINT, and OSINT (monitoring air and ground traffic, diplomatic statements from Russia and Azerbaijan). (PRIORITY: CRITICAL).
• GAP 15: IMPACT OF MOBILE INTERNET ISSUES IN LNR (LOW, NEW): Assess the cause and operational impact of the reported mobile internet issues in LNR. Does this indicate Ukrainian EW activity, infrastructure damage, or internal Russian issues?
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local reports, social media), SIGINT (if possible, traffic analysis). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 16: PUBLIC HEALTH SITUATION IN OCCUPIED/FRONT-LINE AREAS (LOW, NEW): Assess the extent of public health risks (e.g., cholera) in occupied and front-line Ukrainian territories, and the effectiveness of local and international efforts to mitigate them. Specifically, assess the severity of water supply issues in occupied Mariupol due to reservoir depletion. Monitor the impact of Mishustin's announced investment in water treatment facilities in "new Russian subjects."
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local health reports, UN/NGO assessments), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 17: INTENT AND IMPACT OF RUSSIAN PRE-EMPTIVE "PROVOCATION" NARRATIVES (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Assess the specific trigger and target of SVR RF's claim that "Ukraine and Europe are preparing sophisticated provocations against Russia." Specifically, investigate the newly articulated false flag scenario involving a "Russian torpedo attack on a US Navy ship in the Baltic Sea." Is this setting the stage for a specific false flag event, or a general deflection tactic? Also assess Poddubnyy's claim of "Zelenskyy's regime preparing terrorist attacks." Colonelcassad's amplification of the "Baltic Sea sabotage" claim. Critically, analyze the Russian-amplified "fake" about Ukraine/Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea, as reported by РБК-Україна.
  • CR: Prioritize SIGINT, HUMINT, OSINT on Russian internal communications and official statements. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 18: EFFECTIVENESS AND DEMAND FOR UKRAINIAN EW CAPABILITIES (LOW, NEW): Assess the specific types of EW equipment needed by Ukrainian forces (e.g., as highlighted by 'Barny') and the effectiveness of current EW systems in countering Russian drones and electronic warfare.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from frontline units, OSINT (technical analyses of EW systems). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 19: VERIFY RUSSIAN UNIT IDENTIFICATIONS (LOW, NEW): Confirm the veracity of unit identifications provided by Russian sources, such as the "163rd Tank Regiment RF" in the motorcycle crash video.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (cross-referencing with other sources, unit tracking), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 20: PACIFIC FLEET EXERCISES (MEDIUM, NEW): Assess the specific objectives, scale, and duration of the Russian Pacific Fleet exercises. Are these routine drills, or do they signal a new strategic posture or a shift in force deployment?
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT, SIGINT, OSINT (maritime tracking, official statements, naval analyses). (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 21: IMPACT OF RUSSIAN INTERNAL PURGES (LOW, NEW): Assess the impact of actions like the bankruptcy proceedings against Timur Ivanov on Russian military cohesion, logistics, and internal stability.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (Russian legal/financial news), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 22: VERIFICATION OF UKRAINIAN COMMAND CHANGE (CRITICAL, NEW): Independent, all-source verification of the report that General-Major Nikoliuk replaced Tarnavsky as commander of OTU "Donetsk." Assess the operational implications of this change.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from Ukrainian military sources, OSINT (Ukrainian official announcements, reputable news agencies). (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 23: IMPACT OF UKRAINIAN ANTI-CORRUPTION EFFORTS ON MILITARY PROCUREMENT (MEDIUM, NEW): Assess the full impact of the exposed Lviv Oblast procurement scheme (64 million UAH losses) on military supply chains and future procurement processes. Are these isolated incidents or indicative of systemic vulnerabilities?
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from Ukrainian defense ministry and procurement officials, OSINT (follow-up legal proceedings, investigative journalism). (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 24: UKRAINIAN INTERNAL PUBLIC SENTIMENT IN LOCALITIES (LOW, NEW): Assess the specific reasons and broader implications of negative public sentiment towards local officials (e.g., Trukhanov in STERNENKO's video). Does this indicate localized issues or broader political discontent that could affect civil-military cooperation?
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local media, social media analysis), HUMINT (local surveys if feasible). (PRIORITY: LOW).

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations (ISR, HUMINT, OSINT critical):

  1. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF "THE TELEGRAPH" AID CESSATION CLAIM. All-source intelligence must rapidly confirm or refute the Russian-amplified report on US military aid cessation. This remains the single most critical collection requirement for the next 6-12 hours. (Supports CR 1).
  2. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE BDA & VERIFICATION OF UAV ATTACK ON "NEVINNOMYSSKY AZOT" AND ASSOCIATED RUSSIAN RESPONSES. Task all available ISR assets to conduct immediate BDA on the "Nevinnomyssky Azot" facility. Assess the extent of damage, operational impact on fertilizer production, and potential long-term strategic implications for Russia. Monitor for any immediate Russian retaliatory strikes or heightened rhetoric following this successful Ukrainian deep strike. Verify if the MoD Russia video purporting to show "drone operators in action" is indeed a miscaptioned Ukrainian FPV strike on a Russian T-80BV tank, and if so, leverage this for IO. (Supports CR 4).
  3. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS REGARDING IRANIAN "HYPERSONIC" USE / AD DEFEAT / US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES / NUCLEAR THREATS / IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL / IRANIAN MFA UNSC PUSH, AND "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" / DECEPTIVE "APOCALYPSE" VIDEOS / IRANIAN UNUSED MISSILE POTENTIAL. ANALYZE RUSSIAN RELIGIOUS/ANTI-MIGRANT PROPAGANDA. Rapidly confirm or deny claims of Iranian hypersonic missile use, AD defeat, US Embassy damage, and US MQ-9 Reaper drone shootdown. Expose any exaggeration or fabrication by Russian/Iranian sources. Critically, assess the intent and impact of nuclear threats and overt anti-Semitic slurs from Russian-aligned channels, and the implications of Russia's denial of the Iranian NPT withdrawal claim, as well as the impact of direct Russian diplomatic actions (citizen warnings, embassy evacuation consideration, calls for UNSC condemnation of Israel, joint condemnation of Israel). Forcefully investigate and identify the source of the "massive explosion" videos; if misattributed or false flags, prepare immediate debunking. Critically assess the TASS report of an IRGC advisor stating Iran has not fully used its missile potential against Israel. Launch intensive analysis into the "Военкор Котенок" video featuring Orthodox priests promoting anti-migrant/anti-Islam narratives – identify the network, assess reach, and develop targeted counter-messaging against this dangerous ideological escalation. (Supports CR 2, CR 5, CR 9).
  4. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE BDA & VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN LOSSES/TACTICAL SITUATION, ESPECIALLY ULYANOVKA AND INCREASED ACTIVITY ON SEVEN AXES. VERIFY IMPACT OF HEAVY WEAPON STRIKES ON ZAPORIZHZHIA FRONTLINE VILLAGES. ASSESS BDA OF UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES ON RUSSIAN PERSONNEL IN POKROVSK. VERIFY SBU DETENTION OF INFORMANT IN SLOVYANSK. MONITOR ZAPORIZHZHIA AND SOUTH-DONETSK AXES CLOSELY. Task all available ISR assets to conduct immediate BDA. Assess Russian losses claimed by Khorne Group 116th Separate Mechanized Brigade during assaults on Andriivka, Sumy Oblast, and BDA of Ukrainian drone strikes on personnel/vehicles in Sumy. Verify Russian claims of FPV strike on Ukrainian buggy and "Ranger" disappearance from Sumy. Assess BDA of claimed Ukrainian cross-border airstrike in Bryansk Oblast. Verify Russian claim of "liberation" of Ulyanovka (Malynivka) and assess the reality on the ground. Also, confirm success of Ukrainian SOF mine-laying (3x BTRs) and STERNENKO's drone-on-drone kill. Assess the implications for the tactical situation on the Pokrovsk and Novoukrainka axes. Verify Russian claimed strike on "Kyiv-60" enterprise and determine cause/impact of Rivne industrial fire. Assess BDA of MoD Russia's claimed Su-25 strikes. Assess BDA of WarGonzo's claimed drone strike on a dugout on the Zaporizhzhia Front. Assess the implications of OSUV "Khortytsia" reporting increased Russian activity on seven axes. Assess the actual impact of heavy weaponry on Zaporizhzhia frontline villages and towns. Confirm the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian personnel (STERNENKO video) and the SBU informant arrest. Monitor Russian milblogger posts on Zaporizhzhia and South-Donetsk axes for specific details. (Supports CR 4, CR 6, CR 9).
  5. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION AND DEBUNKING OF RUSSIAN "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS AND BALTIC SEA FALSE FLAG. Task GUR/SBU to immediately investigate and gather evidence to refute the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of "Ukrainian militants taking Kursk residents hostage in Sumy." Prepare for immediate, forceful public debunking. Investigate the specifics of the SVR claim regarding a false flag "Russian torpedo attack on a US Navy ship in the Baltic Sea" and Colonelcassad's amplification, and the new Russian-amplified "fake" about Ukraine/Britain preparing sabotage in the Baltic Sea. (Supports CR 7, CR 17).
  6. CRITICAL PRIORITY: VERIFY RUSSIAN NUMBERS IN BODY REPATRIATION AND POW EXCHANGES. Immediately verify Medinsky's claim of 6060 Ukrainian bodies transferred to Russia and 78 Russian bodies received from Ukraine, and his new projection of 2239 more Ukrainian bodies to be transferred. Compare with Ukrainian official figures (1245 bodies returned). Critically, compare with MO RF's conflicting claims of 1248 Ukrainian bodies transferred and 51 Russian bodies received. Highlight inconsistencies. Critically, verify the numbers and conditions of Russian military bodies transferred to Ukraine, as reported by Ukraine's Interior Minister Igor Klymenko (mutilated, in different bags, multi-stage transfers). (Supports CR 10).
  7. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF UKRAINIAN COMMAND CHANGE (OTU "DONETSK"). Immediately confirm the reported replacement of OTU "Donetsk" commander (General-Major Nikoliuk replacing Tarnavsky). Assess the reasons and potential operational implications of this change. (Supports CR 22).
  8. URGENT: VERIFY RUSSIAN "TERRORIST" ARRESTS IN KHERSON AND UKRAINIAN UAV C2 DESTRUCTION CLAIM, AND "PRIEST" NARRATIVES. Assess the veracity of FSB claims regarding the detained "Kyiv agent" and MoD claims of destroyed UAV C2 to determine if it is a legitimate operation or a propaganda pretext. Investigate the claims regarding priests and TCC. Verify the veracity of the Mash na Donbasse claim of a Ukrainian "national battalion fighter" being "convicted" after firing on Russian troops. (Supports CR 4, CR 9).
  9. CRITICAL PRIORITY: INTENSIFY ISR ON POKROVSK, KHARKIV-KUPYANSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK, KRAMATORSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA AXES, AND NORTHERN BORDER WITH BELARUS, AND DNIEPER RIVER. Maintain continuous monitoring for any signs of Russian force buildup or offensive preparations. Increase monitoring of Russian riverine activity on the Dnieper. Increase ISR focus on the Sumy axis due to renewed assault attempts and KAB/drone strikes and eastern Kharkiv due to KAB strikes. Monitor for any unit identifications, such as the "163rd Tank Regiment RF." Intensify monitoring of heavy weaponry usage in Zaporizhzhia frontline villages and for ballistic missile launches from the north-east. Monitor Russian milblogger posts about these areas. (Supports CR 3, CR 6, CR 12, CR 19).
  10. URGENT: ASSESS BDA OF RECENT C2/LOGISTICS/INDUSTRIAL/CIVILIAN STRIKES. GUR/SBU to conduct immediate, granular battle damage assessment (BDA) for the Kyiv civilian damage, Oryol strikes, Kharkiv strikes, Khotin Hromada strikes, and other recent deep strikes. Identify systemic vulnerabilities and develop immediate counter-measures. Focus on Nevinnomyssky Azot. (Supports CR 4).
  11. IMMEDIATE: MONITOR AND EXPLOIT RUSSIAN IO NARRATIVES (ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN AID CESSATION, MIDDLE EAST "US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES," IRANIAN "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS, NUCLEAR THREATS, IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL (AND ITS DENIAL), "UKRAINIAN LOSSES," AND EXPLICIT ANTI-SEMITISM, AND POTENTIAL FALSE FLAG EXPLOSION VIDEOS, AND "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS, AND "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" CLAIMS, AND MANIPULATED BODY EXCHANGE NUMBERS, AND MAXIMALIST DEMANDS, AND PRE-EMPTIVE "PROVOCATION" NARRATIVES, INCLUDING "NUCLEAR UNCERTAINTY" GRAPHIC, AND RHETORIC ON IRANIAN UNUSED MISSILE POTENTIAL. MONITOR WAGNER-LINKED CHANNELS AND EXPOSE AZERBAIJAN BORDER DISINFORMATION). Actively monitor for and analyze new Russian IO narratives, particularly those claiming reduced/stopped Western aid to Ukraine, exaggerating Middle East "successes" or "incidents," speculating on US involvement or ties (including specific unverified BDA/casualties), and the new, sensational claims of Iranian "hypersonic" missile use and AD defeat, explicit nuclear threats, claims of Iranian NPT withdrawal (and subsequent denial), and the use of overt anti-Semitic propaganda. Also track Russian diplomatic actions in the Middle East (including joint condemnation of Israel) and the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Iranian MFA calls to UNSC. Immediately analyze any new "massive explosion" videos for their origin and intent as potential false flags. Crucially, monitor all Russian channels for further amplification or details of the "hostage-taking" claims. IMMEDIATELY MONITOR FOR FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OR DEBUNKING OF THE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" CLAIM. Pay close attention to Russian manipulation of body exchange figures, including Medinsky's new projections. Monitor for amplification of maximalist demands (destroy Western weapons) and pre-emptive "provocation" narratives. Monitor narratives regarding Israel's internal travel restrictions and the Paris Air Show incident. Analyze the new "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic by Rybar and its implications for nuclear rhetoric. Monitor and analyze Russian rhetoric on Iran's "unused missile potential." Actively monitor Wagner-linked channels (like "Condottiero™") for content and trends, and expose their attempts to build credibility through geopolitical commentary. Forcefully debunk Alex Parker Returns' claim about the Azerbaijan-Iran border to expose Russian attempts to obscure sensitive logistical routes. Publicly confirm and explain the changes in Ukrainian military command (OTU "Donetsk"). (Supports CR 1, 2, 5, 7, 10, 14, 17).
  12. CONTINUOUS COUNTER-SABOTAGE INTELLIGENCE & INTERNAL SECURITY MONITORING. Continue efforts to identify and neutralize collaborators, as demonstrated by the recent success in Mykolaiv and Donetsk. Investigate the Avito EW system listing for signs of internal corruption or diversion. Investigate the Kryvyi Rih embezzlement case for further implications on critical infrastructure resilience. Address the Lviv mobilized serviceman incident to identify systemic issues. Monitor internal Russian repression and dissent for insights into regime stability. Monitor impact of Timur Ivanov bankruptcy. Analyze the SBU's detention of the informant in Slovyansk for lessons learned and best practices. Investigate the Lviv Oblast procurement corruption scheme (64 million UAH losses) and its systemic implications. (Supports CR 9, CR 21, CR 23).
  13. MONITOR AND ANALYZE UKRAINIAN INTERNAL POLITICAL/SOCIAL SENTIMENT. While not direct military intelligence, monitoring public opinion on local leaders (STERNENKO's Trukhanov video) can provide insight into civil-military relations and overall societal stability. (Supports CR 24).

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. MAINTAIN HIGHEST AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS ALL OBLASTS, WITH EMPHASIS ON EASTERN AIR THREAT AND INDUSTRIAL/CIVILIAN TARGETS, AND NORTHERN AXIS. Anticipate Russia may increase the intensity or breadth of aerial attacks (UAVs, ballistic missiles, KABs, tactical aviation, TOS) to capitalize on global distraction and the IO narrative of Western aid cessation. Ensure layered AD coverage for critical infrastructure and population centers, particularly industrial sites and population centers, and especially in border regions (Sumy, Chernihiv). Be prepared for aviation-launched munitions in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Focus on defense against drones in Sumy. Prioritize AD assets for protection of frontline villages in Zaporizhzhia subject to heavy weaponry and critical industrial targets (similar to Nevinnomyssky Azot) within Ukraine. Be alert to ballistic missile threats from the north-east.
  2. ADAPT TO WIDER GEOGRAPHIC DRONE/MISSILE THREAT & COUNTER DEEP STRIKES. Implement and refine TTPs to counter widespread, multi-axis attacks, including FPV drones using small arms. Prioritize resources for defending critical C2 nodes, ammunition depots, and industrial/civilian facilities against confirmed Russian deep strikes.
  3. REVIEW AND REHEARSE CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS (COOP) PLANS. All units must immediately review and rehearse COOP plans, ensuring redundant communication pathways and alternate command posts are ready, given the persistent threat of deep strikes.
  4. IMMEDIATE DISPERSAL AND CONCEALMENT. Disperse all high-value assets and personnel. Reinforce concealment measures, especially for C2 nodes and logistics hubs, against FPV drones and KABs.

• Ground Forces:

  1. MAINTAIN DISCIPLINED DEFENSIVE POSTURE IN POKROVSK, KHARKIV-KUPYANSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK, KRAMATORSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, AND NORTHERN BORDER DIRECTIONS. Prioritize strong defensive lines. Respond to increased activity on seven axes. Reinforce positions in Zaporizhzhia frontline villages targeted by heavy weaponry. Be prepared for intensified ground actions on South-Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia axes.
  2. REINFORCE DEFENSES IN SUMY OBLAST (NORTHERN-SLOBOZHANSKYI DIRECTION). Based on DPGU announcement and new assault attempts on Andriivka, prepare for increased Russian ground activity and cross-border incursions. Continue to leverage successes in countering Russian assault attempts. Ensure units are adequately equipped with off-road vehicles and EW.
  3. CONTAIN RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK/DNIPROPETROVSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA, ESPECIALLY AROUND ULYANOVKA/MALYNIVKA, KOMAR AREA, AND NOVOPAVLIYKA. Reinforce defensive lines. Prepare for counter-attacks to regain lost ground or consolidate defensive lines.
  4. CONTINUE FPV DRONE OPERATIONS & COUNTER-BATTERY. Leverage successes in FPV drone attacks against Russian targets (e.g., dugouts, vehicles, personnel, as seen in Pokrovsk drone strikes) and continue aggressive counter-battery fire against Russian artillery and MLRS (TOS, improvised MLRS). Analyze successful targeting methods. Prioritize fundraising and acquisition for critical equipment like re-transmitter drones for units like "Stryzh" battalion.
  5. MAINTAIN DNEPR RIVER PATROLS AND INTERDICTION CAPABILITIES. Continue successful operations to prevent Russian river crossings in Kherson, and monitor any increased Russian riverine training activity.
  6. IMPROVE PERSONNEL TRANSPORT SAFETY. Address and investigate the incident in Lviv Oblast regarding the mobilized serviceman to prevent recurrence and improve troop welfare. Investigate the motorcycle crash incident for lessons on tactical movement.
  7. MAINTAIN MINE WARFARE PROFICIENCY. Leverage and disseminate lessons learned from the successful SOF mine-laying operation (3x BTRs) to other units. Disseminate lessons from Ukrainian sapper successes in leading assaults.

• Information Operations (IO):

  1. IMMEDIATE & AGGRESSIVE: COUNTER RUSSIAN NARRATIVES ON "US AID CESSATION," MIDDLE EAST "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS / "US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES," NUCLEAR THREATS, IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL (AND ITS DENIAL), "UKRAINIAN LOSSES," AND EXPLICIT ANTI-SEMITISM. FORCEFULLY DEBUNK "MASSIVE EXPLOSION" VIDEOS AS MISATTRIBUTED OR FALSE FLAGS. IMMEDIATELY EXPOSE "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS AS BLATANT FALSE FLAGS. CRITICALLY, IMMEDIATELY EXPOSE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" CLAIMS AS BLATANT FABRICATIONS. FORCEFULLY DEBUNK MEDINSKY'S MANIPULATED BODY EXCHANGE NUMBERS (6060 VS 1245) AND MO RF'S INCONSISTENT NUMBERS (1248 VS 1245). EXPOSE RUSSIAN MAXIMALIST DEMANDS AND PRE-EMPTIVE "PROVOCATION" NARRATIVES (INCLUDING BALTIC SEA FALSE FLAG AND "NUCLEAR UNCERTAINTY" GRAPHIC). HIGHLIGHT ZELENSKYY'S DIPLOMATIC VISITS. EXPOSE WAGNER IO CHANNELS AND DEBUNK AZERBAIJAN BORDER DISINFORMATION. PUBLICIZE UKRAINIAN COMMAND CHANGES. PUBLICIZE NEVINNOMYSSKY AZOT STRIKE. HIGHLIGHT RUSSIAN SHELLING OF CIVILIAN AREAS. EXPOSE RUSSIAN RELIGIOUS/ANTI-MIGRANT PROPAGANDA. PUBLICIZE ANTI-CORRUPTION SUCCESSES. Proactively and forcefully counter the narrative that the US is stopping aid. Immediately debunk false TASS/Russian claims regarding Iranian "hypersonic" use and advanced AD defeat, and any fabricated claims of US-Iranian consultations or an "American-Israeli war" AND the specific unverified BDA/casualty claims, including US Embassy damage, and the high Israeli/Iranian casualty figures (e.g., 370+ missiles). FORCEFULLY CONDEMN THE INTRODUCTION OF OVERT ANTI-SEMITIC PROPAGANDA, ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH NUCLEAR THREATS, by Russian channels. IMMEDIATELY ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN DENIAL OF THE IRANIAN NPT WITHDRAWAL CLAIM, highlighting the previous amplification as evidence of Russian disinformation tactics. Immediately expose any "massive explosion" videos from Russian sources as misattributed or false flags, emphasizing Russian deception. MOST IMPORTANTLY, IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE'S CLAIM OF "UKRAINIAN MILITANTS TAKING RUSSIAN CIVILIANS HOSTAGE IN SUMY," PRESENTING IT AS A BLATANT FALSE FLAG OPERATION AND PRETEXT FOR ESCALATION. USE THE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" CLAIM AS ANOTHER PRIME EXAMPLE OF RUSSIAN DESPERATION AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO FABRICATE WAR CRIMES AND DIRECTLY TARGET US INTERESTS IN THE INFO SPACE. IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK MEDINSKY'S EXAGGERATED CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN BODY TRANSFERS (6060, plus 2239 projected), HIGHLIGHTING UKRAINE'S VERIFIABLE FIGURES (1245) AND THE INCONSISTENCY OF RUSSIAN OFFICIAL FIGURES (1248). Emphasize that Russia seeks to destabilize both regions to exhaust Western resources and attention, as evidenced by the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric. Highlight Ukrainian successes in inflicting Russian losses (e.g., successful drone defense, artillery engagements, high AD kill rates, FPV drone intercepts, successful agent arrests, deep strikes on Oryol, FPV truck strike, HIMARS on Makeyevka, DeepState's Pion strike, SOF BTRs, sapper ops, drone strikes in Sumy, reported Bryansk strike, WarGonzo dugout strike, motorcycle crash incident, drone strikes on personnel in Pokrovsk, and most importantly, the UAV attack on Nevinnomyssky Azot.) Expose the neglect of Russian war graves as a counter to their "patriotic" narrative. Expose any internal Russian corruption and Ukrainian successes in combating it (Kryvyi Rih, Lviv procurement scheme). Counter narratives regarding Ukrainian internal divisions (priests, language use, local political discontent like in Odesa). Promote positive stories of Ukrainian veteran support and societal resilience, especially rehabilitation efforts and reconstruction in frontline areas, and public health efforts (cholera prevention in Zaporizhzhia, water issues in Mariupol). Publicize Ukrainian government's digital services for veterans. Highlight Russian demands for Ukraine to disarm Western weapons as proof of aggressive intent. Publicize President Zelenskyy's visit to Austria and planned Trump meeting as evidence of continued international support. Use stories like 'Barny' to highlight the resolve of Ukrainian defenders. Expose Russian aviation safety issues. Publicize successful fundraising efforts. Expose the Wagner-linked "Condottiero™" channel as an influence operation. Immediately and forcefully debunk Alex Parker Returns' claim about the Azerbaijan-Iran border to counter disinformation on a sensitive logistical route. Publicly confirm and explain the changes in Ukrainian military command (OTU "Donetsk"). Highlight the 6 civilian deaths and 4 injuries from Russian shelling in Donetsk Oblast. Forcefully condemn the use of religious figures for anti-migrant/anti-Islam propaganda (Volenkor Kotenok's video).
  2. RAPID DEBUNKING OF MISINFORMATION. Maintain rapid response to immediately debunk unverified and sensationalized claims propagated by Russian state media and milbloggers (e.g., fabricated Israeli/US actions, rapidly escalating and unverified casualty figures, specific BDA claims, and aggressive territorial claims like "Dnipropetrovsk bridgehead" or "Sumy breakthrough," claimed "liberation" of Ulyanovka, Komar, and claims of Tehran residents leaving). Expose Russia's use of emotionally charged propaganda and anti-Semitic rhetoric, and nuclear threats.
  3. PROMOTE UKRAINIAN RESILIENCE & AD SUCCESSES: Highlight ongoing Ukrainian AD operations and any successful intercepts to reassure the public and international partners of continued defensive capabilities. Project local control and normalcy despite civilian casualties. Publicize formalized veteran support programs to boost morale and show national resilience. Publicize successful counter-intelligence operations and anti-corruption efforts. Publicly highlight official appointments (e.g., new Prosecutor General nominee) to demonstrate governmental stability. Promote civilian events like the Zaporizhzhia schoolchildren's sports achievement to showcase normalcy and resilience.
  4. HIGHLIGHT RUSSIAN ALLIANCES WITH PARIAH STATES & ROLE IN GLOBAL INSTABILITY. Emphasize that Russia directly benefits from and seeks to amplify and manipulate global instability, and is now using potentially unverified claims and narratives of US involvement (and fabricated US ties/BDA/casualties and anti-Semitic slurs) to further this aim. Highlight the use of North Korean materiel by Russian forces. Highlight the continued flow of Russian energy revenue from the EU. Highlight Russian exploitation of EU internal divisions (Hungary/Slovakia energy block, Paris Air Show incident). Condemn the use of combined Russian-Serbian flags for IO. Expose the purpose of large-scale Russian military exercises (Pacific Fleet) as global power projection and intimidation.

• Diplomatic/Inter-Agency:

  1. IMMEDIATE & PROACTIVE: ENGAGE KEY PARTNERS ON SUSTAINED SUPPORT AND COUNTERING RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC MANIPULATION AND AID NARRATIVES. Ukrainian diplomatic missions should immediately engage with US, EU, and other key partners to address "The Telegraph" report on aid cessation. Seek clarification and a unified, strong public message of continued robust support. Emphasize that such narratives are deliberate Russian attempts to sow discord and undermine support. Leverage the confirmed Trump-Zelenskyy meeting at the G7 summit and President Zelenskyy's visit to Austria to reinforce direct communication and continued high-level engagement.
  2. COORDINATE WITH ALLIES ON IO STRATEGY: Coordinate closely with allied IO agencies to ensure a unified and consistent counter-narrative to Russian disinformation, particularly regarding aid, global conflict, and the new, more extreme and manipulative narratives, including the direct attempt to draw the US into the Middle East conflict with fabricated claims and unverified BDA/casualties, **the sensational claims of "hypersonic" use, claims of Iranian NPT withdrawal (and its denial), and the introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda and nuclear threats, and the "Nuclear uncertainty" graphic. Also coordinate response to Russian diplomatic actions in the Middle East (including Putin/Erdogan joint condemnation of Israel) and the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Iranian MFA calls to UNSC. Coordinate immediate debunking of any "massive explosion" videos identified as false flags/misattributed. Crucially, coordinate a unified and immediate diplomatic response to the Russian "hostage-taking" false flag claim, condemning it as a blatant fabrication designed to escalate. MOST CRITICALLY, COORDINATE IMMEDIATE, FORCEFUL DIPLOMATIC CONDEMNATION OF THE FABRICATED CLAIM OF "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" AND THE SVR'S CLAIM OF A FALSE FLAG "RUSSIAN TORPEDO ATTACK ON A US NAVY SHIP IN THE BALTIC SEA." Coordinate on exposing Medinsky's manipulation of body exchange numbers (6060, plus 2239 projected) and MO RF's inconsistency (1248) and compare to Ukrainian verified figures (1245). Coordinate to counter the Russian narrative on US-Russia diplomatic meeting cancellations. Coordinate with allies to address Russian state-aligned media promoting anti-migrant/anti-Islam rhetoric.
  3. INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION OF CIVILIAN/INDUSTRIAL TARGETING AND RUSSIAN ANTI-SEMITIC/RELIGIOUS PROPAGANDA. Continue to highlight Russian strikes on civilian/industrial targets to maintain international pressure and secure further AD assistance. Simultaneously, seek strong international condemnation of Russia's use of overt anti-Semitic propaganda as a tool of information warfare. Crucially, seek international condemnation of Russia's use of religious figures for anti-migrant/anti-Islam incitement, framing it as a dangerous escalation of ideological warfare. Condemn Russia's punitive measures against citizens in Belgorod. Engage international partners regarding the Hungarian ruling party's "discreditation" campaign and the blocking of EU energy plans. Highlight the blocking of Israeli defense companies at the Paris Air Show and its broader implications. Condemn Russia's attempts to project power globally through military exercises while prosecuting an illegal war. Seek strong condemnation of Russia's heavy weaponry attacks on Zaporizhzhia frontline villages and towns and the recent civilian casualties in Donetsk Oblast.
  4. ENGAGE WITH INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS ON VETERAN SUPPORT & RECONSTRUCTION. Seek international assistance and partnerships for formal veteran support programs to ensure their sustainability and effectiveness. Actively solicit and manage international aid for reconstruction efforts in frontline regions like Zaporizhzhia.
  5. ADDRESS INTERNAL CORRUPTION WITH INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT. Seek international support and expertise for combating large-scale corruption, particularly when it impacts critical civilian infrastructure during wartime, as highlighted by the Kryvyi Rih case and the Lviv procurement scheme. This demonstrates Ukraine's commitment to good governance and strengthens its case for international aid.
  6. ADDRESS PUBLIC HEALTH RISKS IN CONFLICT ZONES. Coordinate with international humanitarian organizations (WHO, Red Cross) to address and mitigate public health risks such as cholera in front-line and occupied territories, advocating for safe access to water and sanitation. Highlight severe water supply issues in occupied Mariupol.
  7. ENGAGE BORDERING EU NATIONS ON SECURITY CONCERNS. Maintain close coordination with European countries bordering Russia that are preparing their hospitals for war, ensuring shared intelligence and readiness.