Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME OF REPORT: 16 JUN 25 / 10:38 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 16 JUN 25 / 10:08 ZULU - 16 JUN 25 / 10:38 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk CLASSIFICATION: TOP SECRET // ORCON // NOFORN

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Ukraine Operational Area:
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alert lifted. Ukrainian forces are receiving substantial military aid, including drones, anti-drone systems, and Motorola radios, specifically for the Zaporizhzhia Front. This indicates continued reinforcement and preparation for sustained defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports the start of enhanced epidemiological surveillance for cholera, highlighting increased health risks due to the conflict's impact on infrastructure, particularly water supply. No cholera cases detected among 86 examined for intestinal dysfunction, but non-pathogenic vibrio detected in water samples. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Donetsk Region (General - Airstrikes and Ground Clashes):
    • Makeyevka (Occupied Donetsk Oblast): ASTRA, a Russian independent media outlet, reports 8 Russian servicemen killed and 12 wounded due to a HIMARS strike on a Russian military convoy in Makeyevka. The video shows damaged civilian and military vehicles, including a 'Z' marked truck, suggesting a military engagement impacting a mixed convoy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for ASTRA report, MEDIUM for full BDA of the HIMARS strike from video alone).
    • Novoukrainka (Donetsk Oblast): DeepStateUA reports Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled gun near Novoukrainka, with video evidence showing a large explosion and fire, indicating its destruction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Siversk-Serebryanka (Donetsk Oblast): "Сливочный каприз" (Russian source) posts photos with mapping data of the Siversk-Serebryanka area, showing drone footage of a motorcycle (claimed destroyed) and indicating control lines near the Siverskyi Donets River and forested areas. This suggests ongoing tactical reconnaissance and engagement in this area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for imagery, MEDIUM for specific BDA on motorcycle).
    • General Staff of Ukraine reports (Previous ISR): Clashes yesterday near Malynivka, Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Oleksiyivka and towards Mykolayivka, Novopavlivka, Novomykolayivka and Pokrovsk (Pokrovsk Axis); near Kostyantynopil, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, Novyy Komar and towards Zaporizhzhya, Novoukrayinka, Myrne, Shevchenko, Odradne, Bahatyr (Novopavlivka Axis); near Chasiv Yar, Bila Hora, Novomarkove and Kurdumivka (Kramatorsk Axis); near Toretsk, towards Rusyn Yar, Novospaske, Oleksandro-Kalynove and Yablunivka (Toretsk Axis); near Kopanky, Novoyehorivka, Lypove and towards Shandryholove, Olhivka, Karpivka, Torske and Hryhorivka (Lyman Axis); near Serebryanka and Hryhorivka (Siversk Axis). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for reported clashes).
  • Kharkiv Axis: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (Ukrainian tactical group) posts multiple photo messages with captions related to "immediate assessment" and "tactical analysis," indicating active engagement and intelligence gathering in the area. One caption states "Всупереч втомі. Попри біль. Заради життя." (Despite fatigue. Despite pain. For life.), indicating high morale and resolve amidst hardship. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Operational Rear / General: "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" (Ukrainian source) publishes a video showing Ukrainian "aerobombers" liquidating a Russian occupier who "decided to earn money in Ukraine" and was "foresightfully in a black bag," implying targeted elimination of a Russian soldier/saboteur. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (4th Ranger Regiment) successfully conducted a complex mine-laying operation resulting in the destruction of three Russian BTR-82s (or similar armored vehicles) in a single area. This demonstrates effective mine warfare and tactical planning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukrainian drone from STERNENKO (Ukrainian source) successfully downed a Russian ZALA 421-04M reconnaissance drone via mid-air collision, demonstrating effective counter-UAV capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The Coordination Staff for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, and subsequently РБК-Україна and ASTRA, report that Ukraine has returned 1245 bodies of fallen Ukrainian servicemen, indicating ongoing repatriation efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Internal Affairs/Occupied Territories/External:
  • Saratov Oblast (Russia - Internal): TASS reports 15 children hospitalized after mass poisoning at "Ogonyok" health camp. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Iran (External - Russian Amplification/Manipulation):
    • "Операция Z" (Военкоры Русской Весны) amplifies statements from IAEA Director General Grossi that 4 buildings were damaged at the nuclear facility in Isfahan, Iran, but other atomic sites were undamaged. This indicates continued Russian focus on the Iran-Israel narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • TASS reports Iran extended the closure of its airspace until 01:30 MSK on June 17. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Colonelcassad (Russian milblogger) claims Iran launched over 370 ballistic missiles at Israel in the last three days, attributing the figure to Israeli PM's advisor Gandelman. This is a likely exaggeration to inflate Iranian capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Russian claim, LOW for veracity).
    • Alex Parker Returns amplifies the 370 missile claim, framing it as distressing for "Gandelman," further contributing to the narrative of Israeli vulnerability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russia (Internal - Judicial/POW/Diplomatic):
    • TASS reports Medinsky stated Russia fulfilled promises made in Istanbul, transferring 6060 bodies of fallen Ukrainian officers and soldiers. This is a significant numerical claim (6060 bodies vs. Ukraine's 1245 returned bodies) likely for IO purposes to highlight Russian "humanitarian" efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Russian claim, LOW for veracity of 6060 figure as direct exchange for 1245). Medinsky also states Russia and Ukraine continue POW exchanges and have established urgent sanitary transfers for seriously wounded from the front line. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claim, MEDIUM for veracity).
    • TASS further reports Medinsky stated Russia received 78 bodies of fallen Russian servicemen from Ukraine. This is likely a counter-narrative to Ukraine's larger repatriation efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for claim, MEDIUM for veracity/context).
  • Moldova (External - Russian Interference): Rybar (Russian milblogger) reports "Digital hysteria in Moldova before elections," indicating continued Russian interest in influencing Moldovan domestic politics. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Europe (External - Russian claims/monitoring): "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" (Russian milblogger) claims "Europe is preparing hospitals for war." This is a likely fear-mongering narrative to suggest an impending broader conflict or to justify Russian actions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Russian claim, LOW for veracity as a broad trend).
  • Russian Milblogger Content (Internal/IO):
    • Alex Parker Returns posts photos titled "Miscalculated, but where?" likely mocking Ukrainian actions or miscalculations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO intent).
    • "Зона СВО" (Russian milblogger) posts a video titled "Touching moments of war❤️" showing a soldier interacting with stray dogs, an attempt to humanize Russian soldiers for internal consumption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • "Два майора" (Russian milblogger) posts a series of photos under the rubric "Soldier's Daily Life," but the content is domestic (cats, home scenes) rather than direct military activity, an attempt to normalize the war for the domestic audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • "Два майора" also posts a video of a Latvian parliamentary session where a speaker holds Latvian and Ukrainian flags, likely attempting to frame it as political instability or foreign interference. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • WarGonzo posts a video claiming "Volunteers destroyed a Ukrainian artillery piece," showing drone footage of a Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer being struck and destroyed, attributing the strikes to "Wolves" and "Storm Petrel" units. This reinforces claims of Russian tactical successes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Successful Ukrainian drone strikes (against Russian BTRs and ZALA UAV) and Russian drone/FPV strikes (against Gvozdika) indicate continued clear weather conditions conducive to aerial reconnaissance and precision targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The mine-laying operation by Ukrainian SOF suggests terrain suitable for concealment and ambush. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The report of cholera risk in Zaporizhzhia due to compromised water access and sanitation highlights the public health impact of environmental degradation caused by conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces: Actively engaged in multi-domain defense, demonstrating effective counter-UAV capabilities (ZALA drone downing), successful mine warfare tactics (3x BTR destruction), and precision strikes on high-value targets (2S7 Pion destruction). Continuing to receive significant Western military aid (Zaporizhzhia Front supplies). Engaged in repatriation of fallen servicemen. Maintaining high morale and resolve. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). ОТУ "Харків" is actively monitoring and analyzing the tactical situation in its area. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces: Sustaining ground pressure, particularly in Donetsk direction (Novoukrainka, Siversk-Serebryanka), and facing losses from Ukrainian precision strikes (HIMARS on Makeyevka convoy, drone strike on Pion). Continuing widespread aerial reconnaissance (ZALA UAV) and artillery operations (Gvozdika). Intensifying IO around the Middle East conflict with exaggerated and fabricated claims, and domestic messaging to humanize soldiers and normalize the war. Claiming significant prisoner/body exchange numbers for IO purposes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RUSSIA FOCUSED)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA):

• Capabilities (Russia):
  • Deep Strike / Artillery: While taking hits (HIMARS on Makeyevka, DeepState strike on 2S7 Pion), Russia continues to possess artillery capabilities, as evidenced by the Gvozdika strike footage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • UAV Operations: Maintaining robust UAV reconnaissance (ZALA 421-04M) and attack drone capabilities (WarGonzo Gvozdika strike). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Warfare - Diversion, Exaggeration, Normalization:
    • Middle East Manipulation (Continued & Exaggerated): Amplifying IAEA reports on Isfahan nuclear facility damage (Operatsiya Z) and wildly exaggerating Iranian missile launches (Colonelcassad's 370+ missiles). This aims to maintain global focus on the Middle East crisis and portray Iranian (and by extension, Russian-aligned) capabilities as formidable. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • POW/Body Exchange Manipulation: Medinsky's claim of transferring 6060 Ukrainian bodies to Ukraine (vs. 1245 received by Ukraine) is a significant statistical manipulation designed to assert Russian control over the process, project humanitarianism, and undermine the perception of Ukrainian losses. His claims of ongoing POW exchanges and sanitary transfers are also part of this narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO tactic, LOW for veracity of numbers).
    • Domestic Normalization & Humanization: "Два майора" and "Зона СВО" posting content on "soldier's daily life" and "touching moments" (cats, stray dogs) aims to normalize the conflict for the Russian domestic audience and humanize their military, reducing internal dissent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Framing Western Weakness/Disarray: Alex Parker's mocking "Miscalculated, but where?" and "Два майора" showing Latvian parliamentary arguments aim to portray Ukraine and its Western allies as chaotic or inept. Поддубный's claim of "Europe preparing hospitals for war" is a scare tactic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions (Russia):
  • Maintain Pressure & Seek Tactical Gains: Continue ground assaults, particularly on the Donetsk axes (Novoukrainka, Siversk-Serebryanka), aiming to deplete Ukrainian forces and seize incremental territory. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Degrade Ukrainian Military Capabilities: Continue to target Ukrainian military equipment (artillery pieces like 2S7 Pion, Gvozdika) and potentially logistics/C2 nodes, though no new successful deep strikes reported this period. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Shape Global and Domestic Narratives: Continue to leverage international events, especially the Middle East conflict, to divert attention, and to control domestic narratives through exaggeration of enemy losses and normalization of wartime life. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Assert Control over POW/Body Exchange Narrative: Project an image of humanitarian concern and control over the exchange process, possibly to gain leverage or deflect from criticisms of their own treatment of prisoners. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Increased Mine Warfare Counter-Measures: Ukrainian SOF's sophisticated mine-laying operation (destroying 3 BTRs) highlights both the continued importance of mine warfare and the adaptability of Ukrainian forces in employing it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Effective Counter-UAV Tactics: The mid-air collision downing of a ZALA reconnaissance drone demonstrates an effective and potentially new tactic for neutralizing Russian aerial intelligence assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Targeted Artillery Suppression: Ukrainian success in striking a 2S7 Pion further indicates effective counter-battery and targeting of Russian artillery. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Information Operations Diversification: Russian milbloggers are increasingly using "slice of life" content (cats, dogs, domestic scenes) to normalize the war, alongside their more aggressive disinformation campaigns, indicating a diversification of their IO approach for domestic consumption. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• Ukrainian forces are receiving continuous, substantial aid for frontline areas (Zaporizhzhia), which helps sustain their operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian forces continue to operate with sufficient, if not limitless, supplies of artillery ammunition and drones to maintain offensive tempo, despite some localized tactical crowdfunding appeals noted in previous ISRs. The HIMARS strike on a Russian convoy in Makeyevka indicates that Russian logistics remain vulnerable to precision strikes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian Military C2: Continues to direct ground operations and coordinate UAV/artillery strikes. However, the reported HIMARS strike on a convoy suggests vulnerability in their logistical C2 and convoy discipline. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Russian IO/Diplomatic C2: Remains highly centralized and adaptable, able to rapidly pivot to and amplify international crises (Middle East) with tailored narratives, and simultaneously manage domestic messaging. The coordinated release of POW/body exchange figures (Medinsky) despite likely factual discrepancies highlights a centrally directed information campaign. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Military C2: Demonstrating effective tactical C2 through coordinated mine-laying and drone operations (SOF, STERNENKO), and successful artillery targeting (DeepStateUA). ОТУ "Харків" shows active tactical intelligence gathering. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UKRAINIAN FOCUSED)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Ukrainian forces are maintaining an active and adaptable defensive posture. The success of SOF in mine-laying, drone operators in counter-UAV and artillery targeting, and the ongoing reception of military aid (Zaporizhzhia) all point to continued operational readiness and resilience. The repatriation of fallen servicemen underscores the grim realities of conflict but also highlights efforts to honor their sacrifice and maintain morale. Morale in Kharkiv direction remains high despite fatigue. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Success (Mine Warfare): Destruction of 3 Russian BTR-82s by Ukrainian SOF mine-laying is a significant tactical success, demonstrating effective ambush and area denial capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Counter-UAV): Downing of a Russian ZALA 421-04M reconnaissance drone by a Ukrainian drone via collision is a notable tactical innovation and success against enemy ISR. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Artillery Suppression): The confirmed destruction of a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled gun near Novoukrainka is a high-value target kill, directly degrading Russian long-range artillery capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Humanitarian/Diplomatic): The return of 1245 bodies of fallen servicemen is a crucial humanitarian achievement, fulfilling part of the Istanbul agreements and providing closure for families. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Logistics/Aid): The confirmed delivery of substantial military aid to the Zaporizhzhia Front indicates ongoing, effective Western support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Humanitarian/Health): The high risk of cholera in Zaporizhzhia due to war's impact on infrastructure, though currently controlled, represents a significant public health challenge for the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Information Environment): Ukraine continues to face significant Russian disinformation, particularly regarding the Middle East and POW/body exchange numbers, which requires constant and robust counter-narrative efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• The continued high tempo of operations and successful strikes against high-value Russian assets confirm the effective utilization of existing resources but also highlight the ongoing need for advanced weaponry, drones, and counter-drone systems. The epidemiological risk in Zaporizhzhia emphasizes the need for medical supplies, water purification capabilities, and humanitarian aid. Repatriation efforts require dedicated logistical and forensic resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Narratives (CRITICAL - HIGHLY ACTIVE, AGGRESSIVE, MANIPULATIVE, DIVERSIFIED):
  • Middle East Diversion & Exaggeration: Continued focus on the Israel-Iran conflict, with Russian sources amplifying IAEA reports on Isfahan damage and wildly exaggerating Iranian missile launches (370+ missiles). This aims to divert global attention and resources away from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO tactic).
  • POW/Body Exchange Spin: Medinsky's claim of 6060 Ukrainian bodies transferred to Russia, contrasting with Ukraine's 1245 returned, is a blatant attempt to inflate Russian "humanitarian" achievements and imply overwhelming Ukrainian losses, manipulating the narrative surrounding repatriation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for IO tactic).
  • Domestic Normalization & Humanization: "Два майора" and "Зона СВО" publishing "slice of life" content (cats, dogs, home scenes) aims to make the war feel more distant, less brutal, and normalize the military's role for the domestic Russian audience. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Framing Western/Ukrainian Weakness/Disunity: Alex Parker's "Miscalculated, but where?" and "Два майора" featuring the Latvian parliamentary argument aim to sow doubt about Ukrainian and Western capabilities/cohesion. Поддубный's claim of "Europe preparing hospitals for war" is designed to instill fear and suggest an impending, larger conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Claiming Tactical Successes: WarGonzo's video of a destroyed Gvozdika aims to bolster morale and project Russian military effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Counter-Narratives: Ukrainian channels (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, STERNENKO, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦) are effectively countering Russian narratives by:
  • Showcasing Tactical Successes: Videos of destroyed Russian BTRs, downed ZALA drones, and a destroyed 2S7 Pion directly refute Russian claims of overwhelming battlefield dominance and highlight Ukrainian operational effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Emphasizing Humanitarian Efforts: The repatriation of 1245 bodies demonstrates Ukraine's commitment to its fallen soldiers and human rights, contrasting with Russian attempts to manipulate the numbers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Highlighting Resilience & Support: Videos showcasing military aid deliveries to Zaporizhzhia reinforce continued Western support and Ukrainian capacity to sustain the fight. Discussions of cholera prevention in Zaporizhzhia show transparent governance and care for public health in wartime. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Maintaining High Morale: OTU "Kharkiv"'s emotional caption "Despite fatigue. Despite pain. For life." reflects high resolve. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian Morale: Sustained defensive successes (BTRs, ZALA, Pion), receipt of military aid, and repatriation of fallen servicemen will bolster public and military morale, providing a sense of progress and continued support. The focus on public health (cholera prevention) demonstrates governmental care. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Morale: Russian IO aims to boost domestic morale by presenting military "successes," asserting control over POW/body exchanges, and normalizing daily life in wartime through "humanizing" content. Exaggerated claims about the Middle East aim to distract and project global influence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• The continued flow of military aid to Ukraine (Zaporizhzhia) demonstrates robust, ongoing international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russia's aggressive and often fabricated narratives regarding the Middle East conflict (exaggerated missile launches, IAEA reports spin) are a persistent effort to internationalize the crisis and divert Western attention and resources. The closure of Iranian airspace is a real-world consequence of this conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The differing figures on body repatriation (Ukraine's 1245 vs. Russia's 6060 claim) highlight the ongoing information battle in the humanitarian domain, requiring transparent international monitoring. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian efforts to influence Moldovan elections (Rybar) indicate continued hybrid interference in neighboring countries. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Sustained Ground Pressure on Donetsk Axes (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Siversk-Lyman) and Kharkiv/Kupyansk: Russian forces will continue localized ground assaults aimed at incremental territorial gains, particularly exploiting any perceived weaknesses on the Pokrovsk axis. They will continue to attempt to fix Ukrainian forces in the Siversk-Lyman and Kharkiv-Kupyansk directions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Continued UAV/Artillery Strikes with Adaptation: Russia will sustain precision strikes using FPV drones and artillery against Ukrainian tactical targets (equipment, personnel) and attempt to hit high-value assets further in the rear, adapting their targeting based on Ukrainian counter-measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Aggressive, Diversified Information Operations: Russia will intensify its multi-faceted IO campaign. This will include:
  • Persistent amplification and exaggeration of the Middle East conflict to divert global attention and exhaust Western diplomatic and military resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Continued manipulation of POW/body exchange narratives to project Russian "humanitarianism" and inflate Ukrainian losses. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Increased use of "normalization" content (everyday life, humanizing soldiers) for the domestic Russian audience to maintain public support and apathy towards the war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Disinformation campaigns aimed at discrediting Ukraine and its Western partners, portraying them as chaotic, weak, or internally divided. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Hybrid Interference in Neighboring States: Russia will continue its covert and overt efforts to influence political processes and sow discord in neighboring countries, such as Moldova, using information warfare and proxy actors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Strategic Strike and Ground Offensive in Ukraine under Cover of Global Crisis Amplification and Fabricated Pretexts (Retained from previous ISR, with heightened focus on Russian numerical manipulation in humanitarian exchanges and a sustained campaign of fabricated events to justify escalation): Russia executes a highly coordinated, large-scale combined arms offensive, potentially targeting the Pokrovsk axis or a renewed thrust from the north. This would involve:
  1. A massed strike of ballistic and cruise missiles in conjunction with loitering munitions against critical Ukrainian C2, logistics, and major AD sites across the entire operational depth, aimed at achieving temporary air superiority and operational paralysis, capitalizing on the psychological impact of perceived Western aid withdrawal and the intensified global distraction. This could build on the previous success of deep strikes on C2 nodes.
  2. Simultaneous major ground offensives on multiple axes (e.g., Pokrovsk, Sumy/Northern-Slobozhanskyi, Kharkiv/Southern-Slobozhanskyi), capitalizing on the psychological impact of perceived Western aid diversion and the physical degradation of Ukrainian command and control.
  3. This would be synchronized with an unprecedented surge in Russian IO, including fabricated "false flag" events in Ukraine or neighboring countries (e.g., "hostage-taking of Russian civilians" as recently claimed by Russia, or fabricated direct attacks on Western assets in third countries like the "US Embassy damaged by Iranian strikes") to justify the escalation and reinforce the narrative of Western impotence and Ukrainian collapse, especially on the back of amplified and manipulated claims of aid cessation and escalated global conflicts (e.g., Middle East, now with magnified focus on high casualties, Iranian threats, direct Russian diplomatic actions, and the introduction of highly inflammatory ideological rhetoric like NPT withdrawal claims or explicit anti-Semitism, alongside the selective denial of previous false claims to maintain credibility for future ones). The significant statistical manipulation of body exchange figures by Medinsky (6060 vs. 1245) could be a precursor, establishing a false narrative base for future claims of overwhelming Ukrainian losses to justify an MDCOA. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 1-6 hours):
  • ISR: Continue to prioritize collection to verify or refute claims of Russian territorial gains (Ulyanovka, Komar), and specifically the impact of the HIMARS strike in Makeyevka and the DeepState strike on the Pion near Novoukrainka. Continue real-time tracking of Russian milblogger and state media channels for new narratives or amplification of existing ones, particularly regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, focusing now on deeper, fabricated claims of US involvement/ties/BDA/casualties, intensified diplomatic pressure from Russia, and the highly inflammatory claims such as THAAD self-destruction due to hacking, explicit anti-Semitism, or the "exchange Ukraine for Iran" narrative, as well as the Iranian MFA's call to the UNSC. Note and analyze Russian denials of previously amplified false claims (e.g., NPT withdrawal). Critically, analyze the source and intent of the "massive explosion" videos being pushed by Russian sources, and be prepared to identify them as misattributed or false flags. Investigate the veracity and intent of the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of "Ukrainian militants taking Russian civilians hostage in Sumy." Immediately verify the Russian claim of "US Embassy damage" in Tel Aviv. Monitor for follow-on UAV/missile waves and KAB/TOS strikes into Sumy/Donetsk/Kharkiv/Dnipropetrovsk/Kyiv/Zaporizhzhia. Track any further claims regarding POW exchanges and assess their veracity, specifically Medinsky's latest numbers (6060 Ukrainian bodies returned, 78 Russian bodies received). Monitor for any reports of Russian force movements towards the Sumy/Chernihiv border or further riverine training/probes on the Dnieper. Assess the public health situation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • IO: Commanders must continue preparation for a robust counter-narrative to the "US stops aid to Ukraine" claim. Ukrainian channels should highlight the continued effectiveness of Ukrainian drone operations (including new FPV drone strike videos, deep strikes on Oryol, successful AD against Russian drones), counter-battery fire, and high air defense success rates (e.g., FPV drone intercepts, Sumy defense successes), and successful counter-intelligence operations. Prepare immediate debunking of false TASS/Russian claims regarding the Middle East crisis and Ukrainian tactical setbacks, especially the new, more insidious claims of high Israeli/Iranian casualties, Iranian threats as amplified by Russia, the THAAD self-destruction claim, and the direct Russian diplomatic actions to withdraw citizens. FORCEFULLY EXPOSE AND DEBUNK THE "MASSIVE EXPLOSION" VIDEOS AS MISATTRIBUTED OR FALSE FLAGS, highlighting Russian deception tactics. IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE'S CLAIM OF "UKRAINIAN MILITANTS TAKING RUSSIAN CIVILIANS HOSTAGE IN SUMY," presenting it as a blatant false flag operation and pretext for escalation. CRITICALLY, IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK THE RUSSIAN CLAIM OF "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" AS A DELIBERATE FABRICATION DESIGNED TO ESCALATE. IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK MEDINSKY'S EXAGGERATED CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN BODY TRANSFERS (6060), highlighting Ukraine's verifiable figures (1245). Proactively link the escalating Middle East crisis to Russian destabilization efforts and expose Russian amplification and manipulation. Publicly expose Russian casualties or equipment losses (e.g., from successful Ukrainian AD or FPV drone strikes, FPV strike on truck, HIMARS strike on Makeyevka, DeepState's Pion strike). Proactively expose Russian corruption and highlight Ukrainian efforts against internal corruption. Highlight positive aspects of Ukrainian society, such as veteran support programs and reconstruction efforts in frontline regions, and public health efforts (cholera prevention in Zaporizhzhia).

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• GAP 1: VERIFICATION OF "THE TELEGRAPH" REPORT ON US AID CESSATION (CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE, HYPER-PRIORITY, RETAINED): Independent, all-source verification of the "The Telegraph" report amplified by Russian sources regarding the cessation of US military aid to Ukraine. Assess the type, quantity, and operational impact of any such claims on Ukrainian defense capabilities.
  • COLLECTION REQUIREMENT (CR): Prioritize SIGINT, OSINT (direct source review of "The Telegraph" article for context, content, and accuracy), IMINT, and HUMINT from US, NATO, and Ukrainian sources to confirm or refute these reports. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 2: VERIFICATION OF ISRAELI/IRANIAN IMPACTS & RUSSIAN CLAIMS ON IRANIAN "HYPERSONIC" USE / AD DEFEAT / US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES / NUCLEAR THREATS / IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL / IRANIAN MFA UNSC PUSH, AND "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" (CRITICAL, IMMEDIATE, UPDATED FOCUS, RETAINED): Independent, all-source verification of all specific impact claims in Israel and the reconciliation of conflicting casualty figures. Critically, assess the veracity of claims of Iranian "hypersonic" missile use and "new methods" to defeat Israeli air defenses, as well as claims of US Embassy damage in Tel Aviv and the shooting down of a US MQ-9 Reaper drone. Verify the claim of THAAD self-destruction due to Iranian hacking. Verify the veracity of Colonelcassad's claim of 370+ Iranian ballistic missiles. Also, verify the claim that Israel is attempting to convince the US to join military operations against Iran, the new, fabricated claims of US-Iranian consultations or an "American-Israeli war," and the specific claim of an Arrow-3/THAAD AD system being struck at Nevatim. Additionally, verify Rybar's claims of US refueling aircraft redeployment and changes in communication patterns for sea-based cruise missiles. Assess the specific impact and intent of the re-introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda and nuclear threats by Russian state-aligned channels, as well as the impact of direct Russian diplomatic actions (citizen warnings, embassy evacuation consideration, calls for UNSC condemnation of Israel). CONFIRM AND ANALYZE THE RUSSIAN DENIAL OF THE IRANIAN PARLIAMENT VOTE TO WITHDRAW FROM NPT. Verify claims of Tehran residents leaving and their true sentiment. Verify the execution of "Mossad agent" Ismail Fikri in Iran.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (cross-referencing with Israeli official reports, international news agencies, US official statements, IAEA), IMINT (satellite imagery post-strike), and HUMINT from Israeli and US sources. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 3: RUSSIAN INTENT & FORCE DISPOSITION ON NORTHERN AXIS (CRITICAL, RETAINED): Verification of reports of Russian troop movements to Belarus. Assess if the sustained Russian presence in Kursk border region indicates a future offensive push.
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT, SIGINT, and HUMINT on Russian force composition, logistics build-up, and intent on the Belarus border and Kursk. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 4: UKRAINIAN BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA) FROM RECENT DEEP STRIKES (CRITICAL, ONGOING): Full extent of damage and operational impact from recent Russian deep strikes on Ukrainian C2, logistics, and industrial sites (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk industrial enterprise from previous ISR), and civilian areas (Kyiv, Kharkiv). Also, full BDA of claimed Russian strikes on Ukrainian dugout/UAV control point near Mirnoye. Specifically, verify Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian UAV command post in Kherson, and assess the operational impact. Assess the full extent of damage and personnel losses to the M113 APC in Donetsk. Assess the impact of claimed Russian strikes on a Ukrainian military-industrial enterprise, training center, and AD radar. Specifically, assess the BDA of the FPV strike on the Ukrainian military truck (Ural/Kamaz), the KAB strikes in Khotin Hromada, Sumy Oblast, the HIMARS strike in Makeyevka (including convoy composition and casualties), and the drone strike on the Russian Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer. Verify the impact of the Ukrainian SOF mine-laying operation (3x BTRs).
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from affected units, OSINT (local reports, social media analysis), and IMINT (satellite imagery analysis if available) to determine operational impact and identify vulnerabilities. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 5: RUSSIAN ROLE IN ISRAEL-IRAN ESCALATION (CRITICAL, RETAINED, NEW FOCUS ON "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS, ANTI-SEMITISM, NUCLEAR THREATS, NPT WITHDRAWAL, AND DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE, AND POTENTIAL FALSE FLAGS, AND FABRICATED ATTACKS ON US ASSETS): Assess the extent of direct or indirect Russian involvement in instigating or facilitating the recent missile launches from Iran towards Israel, beyond mere amplification and narrative manipulation. Is Russia providing intelligence, materiel, or political cover? Specifically, analyze the motivation and target audience for the amplification of "hypersonic" claims, nuclear threats, the introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda, and the initial (and now denied) claim of Iranian NPT withdrawal by Russian state-aligned channels, as well as the intent behind official Russian diplomatic warnings/evacuations and the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric. Analyze the impact of Russian retractions of false claims. Critically, investigate the origin and intent of the "massive explosion" videos pushed by Russian channels, assessing if they are misattributed or false flags designed to sow fear or project exaggerated power. Investigate the veracity and intent of the claim of "US Embassy damage in Tel Aviv" as a fabricated pretext.
  • CR: Prioritize SIGINT, HUMINT, and OSINT on Russia-Iran communications and coordination, and US military movements in the region. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 6: VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN TACTICAL GAINS AND UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Independent verification of Russian claims of "full clearing" of Malynivka (Ulyanovka), advances near Burlatske and Novopol, and Pushilin's claim of deep penetration into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Pokrovsk. Critically, verify the Russian claim of Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Komar area to Voskresenka. Verify Russian claims of destruction of AFU equipment at Novotoretskoye. Assess the veracity of the Russian-produced "Pace of Offensive Operation" chart and its data. Verify claimed "liberation" of Ulyanovka (Malynivka) and Komar settlement.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT from Ukrainian units in the area, OSINT (local reports, geolocated video/photos), and IMINT. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 7: VERACITY AND INTENT OF RUSSIAN "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS (CRITICAL, NEW): Immediately verify the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of Ukrainian militants taking Kursk Oblast residents hostage in Sumy. Assess if this is a legitimate criminal investigation or a fabricated pretext for further Russian aggression or information operations.
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT (from Ukrainian sources, local Sumy residents), OSINT (cross-referencing with independent media, local government statements), SIGINT (monitoring Russian communications related to this claim). (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 8: RUSSIAN TACTICAL UAV SUPPLY SHORTFALLS AND FUNDRAISING (MEDIUM, UPDATED): Determine if the crowdfunding appeals for specific drone models by Russian units (VDV, Zaporozhye infantry) or general "Summer Campaign 2025" fundraisers indicate systemic logistical issues or localized shortages. Assess the scale of these shortfalls and their impact on Russian tactical reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. Investigate the Avito listing of an EW system from Belgorod Oblast for indications of internal corruption or supply chain issues. Assess the impact of mobile internet issues in LNR on Russian tactical UAV operations.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (monitoring further crowdfunding appeals, social media analysis of Russian military personnel discussions), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 9: VERACITY OF RUSSIAN "TERRORIST" ARRESTS (MEDIUM, RETAINED): Independent verification of the details and context surrounding the FSB's claimed arrest of a "Kyiv agent" in Kherson Oblast. Assess whether this is a legitimate counter-terrorism operation or a propaganda fabrication. Assess the veracity of the claim regarding priests being "victims of TCC".
  • CR: Prioritize HUMINT, OSINT (local reports, independent media), and review of Russian methodology. (PRIORITY: MEDIUM).
• GAP 10: DETAILS OF POW EXCHANGES AND BODY REPATRIATION (LOW, NEW): Verify numbers, conditions, and composition of personnel involved in claimed POW exchanges, particularly Alex Parker's claim of a 6000:27 ratio. Critically, verify Medinsky's claim of 6060 Ukrainian bodies transferred to Russia, contrasting with Ukraine's 1245 received, and his claim of 78 Russian bodies received from Ukraine.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (Ukrainian official reports, international organizations) and HUMINT (from released personnel). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 11: USE OF NORTH KOREAN MATERIEL (LOW, NEW): Assess the prevalence and impact of North Korean weapons systems (e.g., Type 75 MLRS) in the Russian armed forces.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (imagery analysis), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 12: RUSSIAN DNIEPER RIVER CROSSING CAPABILITIES/INTENT (LOW, NEW): Assess the scale, frequency, and intent behind reported Russian training exercises for Dnieper river crossings. Is this a genuine preparation for a large-scale offensive, or a localized probing/training exercise?
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite imagery of training areas), SIGINT (communications regarding riverine operations), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 13: IMPACT OF RUSSIAN/BELARUSIAN FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS (LOW, NEW): Assess the strategic and economic impact of continued international flight cancellations to/from Russia and Belarus. Does this indicate worsening international isolation or specific security concerns?
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (airline announcements, travel advisories, economic reports). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 14: RUSSIAN USE OF AZERBAIJAN AS LOGISTICAL/DIPLOMATIC CORRIDOR (CRITICAL, NEW): Assess the full scope and purpose of the confirmed new transit route via Baku for Russian personnel and potentially materiel from Iran. Is this a one-off evacuation or the establishment of a strategic corridor for personnel and/or materiel from Iran?
  • CR: Prioritize SIGINT, HUMINT, and OSINT (monitoring air and ground traffic, diplomatic statements from Russia and Azerbaijan). (PRIORITY: CRITICAL).
• GAP 15: IMPACT OF MOBILE INTERNET ISSUES IN LNR (LOW, NEW): Assess the cause and operational impact of the reported mobile internet issues in LNR. Does this indicate Ukrainian EW activity, infrastructure damage, or internal Russian issues?
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local reports, social media), SIGINT (if possible, traffic analysis). (PRIORITY: LOW).
• GAP 16: PUBLIC HEALTH SITUATION IN OCCUPIED/FRONT-LINE AREAS (LOW, NEW): Assess the extent of public health risks (e.g., cholera) in occupied and front-line Ukrainian territories, and the effectiveness of local and international efforts to mitigate them.
  • CR: Prioritize OSINT (local health reports, UN/NGO assessments), HUMINT. (PRIORITY: LOW).

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations (ISR, HUMINT, OSINT critical):

  1. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF "THE TELEGRAPH" AID CESSATION CLAIM. All-source intelligence must rapidly confirm or refute the Russian-amplified report on US military aid cessation. This remains the single most critical collection requirement for the next 6-12 hours. (Supports CR 1).
  2. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS REGARDING IRANIAN "HYPERSONIC" USE / AD DEFEAT / US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES / NUCLEAR THREATS / IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL / IRANIAN MFA UNSC PUSH IN MIDDLE EAST, AND THE SOURCE/INTENT OF "MASSIVE EXPLOSION" VIDEOS. CRITICALLY, IMMEDIATELY VERIFY/DEBUNK "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" CLAIM. VERIFY CLAIMED 370+ MISSILES. Rapidly confirm or deny claims of Iranian hypersonic missile use, AD defeat, US Embassy damage, and US MQ-9 Reaper drone shootdown. Expose any exaggeration or fabrication by Russian/Iranian sources, including the exaggerated 370+ missile claim. Critically, assess the intent and impact of nuclear threats and overt anti-Semitic slurs from Russian-aligned channels, the veracity of the THAAD self-destruction claim, and the implications of Russia's denial of the Iranian NPT withdrawal claim, as well as the impact of direct Russian diplomatic actions (citizen warnings, embassy evacuation consideration, calls for UNSC condemnation of Israel). Forcefully investigate and identify the source of the "massive explosion" videos; if misattributed or false flags, prepare immediate debunking. IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK THE CLAIM OF "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" AS A DELIBERATE FABRICATION. (Supports CR 2, CR 5).
  3. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE BDA & VERIFICATION OF RUSSIAN LOSSES/TACTICAL SITUATION. Task all available ISR assets to conduct immediate BDA for the HIMARS strike in Makeyevka and the drone strike on the Russian 2S7 Pion near Novoukrainka. Also, confirm success of Ukrainian SOF mine-laying (3x BTRs) and STERNENKO's drone-on-drone kill. Assess the implications for the tactical situation on the Pokrovsk and Novoukrainka axes. (Supports CR 4, CR 6).
  4. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION AND DEBUNKING OF RUSSIAN "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS. Task GUR/SBU to immediately investigate and gather evidence to refute the Russian Investigative Committee's claim of "Ukrainian militants taking Kursk residents hostage in Sumy." Prepare for immediate, forceful public debunking. (Supports CR 7).
  5. CRITICAL PRIORITY: VERIFY RUSSIAN NUMBERS IN BODY REPATRIATION AND POW EXCHANGES. Immediately verify Medinsky's claim of 6060 Ukrainian bodies transferred to Russia and 78 Russian bodies received from Ukraine. Compare with Ukrainian official figures (1245 bodies returned). (Supports CR 10).
  6. URGENT: VERIFY RUSSIAN "TERRORIST" ARRESTS IN KHERSON AND UKRAINIAN UAV C2 DESTRUCTION CLAIM, AND "PRIEST" NARRATIVES. Assess the veracity of FSB claims regarding the detained "Kyiv agent" and MoD claims of destroyed UAV C2 to determine if it is a legitimate operation or a propaganda pretext. Investigate the claims regarding priests and TCC. (Supports CR 4, CR 9).
  7. CRITICAL PRIORITY: INTENSIFY ISR ON POKROVSK, KHARKIV-KUPYANSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK, KRAMATORSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA AXES, AND NORTHERN BORDER WITH BELARUS, AND DNIEPER RIVER. Maintain continuous monitoring for any signs of Russian force buildup or offensive preparations. Increase monitoring of Russian riverine activity on the Dnieper. (Supports CR 3, CR 6, CR 12).
  8. URGENT: ASSESS BDA OF RECENT C2/LOGISTICS/INDUSTRIAL/CIVILIAN STRIKES. GUR/SBU to conduct immediate, granular battle damage assessment (BDA) for the Kyiv civilian damage, Oryol strikes, Kharkiv strikes, Khotin Hromada strikes, and other recent deep strikes. Identify systemic vulnerabilities and develop immediate counter-measures. (Supports CR 4).
  9. IMMEDIATE: MONITOR AND EXPLOIT RUSSIAN IO NARRATIVES (ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN AID CESSATION, MIDDLE EAST "US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES," IRANIAN "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS, NUCLEAR THREATS, IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL (AND ITS DENIAL), "UKRAINIAN LOSSES," AND EXPLICIT ANTI-SEMITISM, AND POTENTIAL FALSE FLAG EXPLOSION VIDEOS, AND "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS, AND "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" CLAIMS, AND MANIPULATED BODY EXCHANGE NUMBERS). Actively monitor for and analyze new Russian IO narratives, particularly those claiming reduced/stopped Western aid to Ukraine, exaggerating Middle East "successes" or "incidents," speculating on US involvement or ties (including specific unverified BDA/casualties), and the new, sensational claims of Iranian "hypersonic" missile use and AD defeat, explicit nuclear threats, claims of Iranian NPT withdrawal (and subsequent denial), and the use of overt anti-Semitic propaganda. Also track Russian diplomatic actions in the Middle East and the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Iranian MFA calls to UNSC. Immediately analyze any new "massive explosion" videos for their origin and intent as potential false flags. Crucially, monitor all Russian channels for further amplification or details of the "hostage-taking" claims. IMMEDIATELY MONITOR FOR FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OR DEBUNKING OF THE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" CLAIM. Pay close attention to Russian manipulation of body exchange figures. (Supports CR 1, 2, 5, 7, 10).
  10. CONTINUOUS COUNTER-SABOTAGE INTELLIGENCE & INTERNAL SECURITY MONITORING. Continue efforts to identify and neutralize collaborators, as demonstrated by the recent success in Mykolaiv and Donetsk. Investigate the Avito EW system listing for signs of internal corruption or diversion. Investigate the Kryvyi Rih embezzlement case for further implications on critical infrastructure resilience. Address the Lviv mobilized serviceman incident to identify systemic issues.

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. MAINTAIN HIGHEST AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS ALL OBLASTS, WITH EMPHASIS ON EASTERN AIR THREAT AND INDUSTRIAL/CIVILIAN TARGETS. Anticipate Russia may increase the intensity or breadth of aerial attacks (UAVs, ballistic missiles, KABs, tactical aviation, TOS) to capitalize on global distraction and the IO narrative of Western aid cessation. Ensure layered AD coverage for critical infrastructure and population centers, particularly industrial sites and population centers, and especially in border regions (Sumy, Chernihiv). Be prepared for aviation-launched munitions in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
  2. ADAPT TO WIDER GEOGRAPHIC DRONE/MISSILE THREAT & COUNTER DEEP STRIKES. Implement and refine TTPs to counter widespread, multi-axis attacks, including FPV drones using small arms. Prioritize resources for defending critical C2 nodes, ammunition depots, and industrial/civilian facilities against confirmed Russian deep strikes.
  3. REVIEW AND REHEARSE CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS (COOP) PLANS. All units must immediately review and rehearse COOP plans, ensuring redundant communication pathways and alternate command posts are ready, given the persistent threat of deep strikes.
  4. IMMEDIATE DISPERSAL AND CONCEALMENT. Disperse all high-value assets and personnel. Reinforce concealment measures, especially for C2 nodes and logistics hubs, against FPV drones and KABs.

• Ground Forces:

  1. MAINTAIN DISCIPLINED DEFENSIVE POSTURE IN POKROVSK, KHARKIV-KUPYANSK, SUMY, DNIPROPETROVSK, KRAMATORSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, AND NORTHERN BORDER DIRECTIONS. Prioritize strong defensive lines.
  2. REINFORCE DEFENSES IN SUMY OBLAST (NORTHERN-SLOBOZHANSKYI DIRECTION). Based on DPGU announcement and Russian intent, prepare for increased Russian ground activity and cross-border incursions. Continue to leverage successes in countering Russian assault attempts.
  3. CONTAIN RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK/DNIPROPETROVSK/ZAPORIZHZHIA, ESPECIALLY AROUND ULYANOVKA/MALYNIVKA, KOMAR AREA, AND NOVOPAVLIYKA. Reinforce defensive lines. Prepare for counter-attacks to regain lost ground or consolidate defensive lines.
  4. CONTINUE FPV DRONE OPERATIONS & COUNTER-BATTERY. Leverage successes in FPV drone attacks against Russian targets (e.g., dugouts, vehicles, personnel) and continue aggressive counter-battery fire against Russian artillery and MLRS (TOS, improvised MLRS). Analyze successful targeting methods. Prioritize fundraising and acquisition for critical equipment like re-transmitter drones for units like "Stryzh" battalion.
  5. MAINTAIN DNEPR RIVER PATROLS AND INTERDICTION CAPABILITIES. Continue successful operations to prevent Russian river crossings in Kherson, and monitor any increased Russian riverine training activity.
  6. IMPROVE PERSONNEL TRANSPORT SAFETY. Address and investigate the incident in Lviv Oblast regarding the mobilized serviceman to prevent recurrence and improve troop welfare.
  7. MAINTAIN MINE WARFARE PROFICIENCY. Leverage and disseminate lessons learned from the successful SOF mine-laying operation (3x BTRs) to other units.

• Information Operations (IO):

  1. IMMEDIATE & AGGRESSIVE: COUNTER RUSSIAN NARRATIVES ON "US AID CESSATION," MIDDLE EAST "HYPERSONIC" CLAIMS / "US INVOLVEMENT/TIES/BDA/CASUALTIES," NUCLEAR THREATS, IRAN NPT WITHDRAWAL (AND ITS DENIAL), "UKRAINIAN LOSSES," AND EXPLICIT ANTI-SEMITISM. FORCEFULLY DEBUNK "MASSIVE EXPLOSION" VIDEOS AS MISATTRIBUTED OR FALSE FLAGS. IMMEDIATELY EXPOSE "HOSTAGE-TAKING" CLAIMS AS BLATANT FALSE FLAGS. CRITICALLY, IMMEDIATELY EXPOSE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV" CLAIMS AS BLATANT FABRICATIONS. FORCEFULLY DEBUNK MEDINSKY'S MANIPULATED BODY EXCHANGE NUMBERS (6060 VS 1245). Proactively and forcefully counter the narrative that the US is stopping aid. Immediately debunk false TASS/Russian claims regarding Iranian "hypersonic" use and advanced AD defeat, and any fabricated claims of US-Iranian consultations or an "American-Israeli war" AND the specific unverified BDA/casualty claims, including US Embassy damage, and the high Israeli/Iranian casualty figures (e.g., 370+ missiles). FORCEFULLY CONDEMN THE INTRODUCTION OF OVERT ANTI-SEMITIC PROPAGANDA, ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH NUCLEAR THREATS, by Russian channels. IMMEDIATELY ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN DENIAL OF THE IRANIAN NPT WITHDRAWAL CLAIM, highlighting the previous amplification as evidence of Russian disinformation tactics. Immediately expose any "massive explosion" videos from Russian sources as misattributed or false flags, emphasizing Russian deception. MOST IMPORTANTLY, IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE'S CLAIM OF "UKRAINIAN MILITANTS TAKING RUSSIAN CIVILIANS HOSTAGE IN SUMY," PRESENTING IT AS A BLATANT FALSE FLAG OPERATION AND PRETEXT FOR ESCALATION. USE THE "US EMBASSY DAMAGE" CLAIM AS ANOTHER PRIME EXAMPLE OF RUSSIAN DESPERATION AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO FABRICATE WAR CRIMES AND DIRECTLY TARGET US INTERESTS IN THE INFO SPACE. IMMEDIATELY AND FORCEFULLY DEBUNK MEDINSKY'S EXAGGERATED CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN BODY TRANSFERS (6060), HIGHLIGHTING UKRAINE'S VERIFIABLE FIGURES (1245). Emphasize that Russia seeks to destabilize both regions to exhaust Western resources and attention, as evidenced by the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric. Highlight Ukrainian successes in inflicting Russian losses (e.g., successful drone defense, artillery engagements, high AD kill rates, FPV drone intercepts, successful agent arrests, deep strikes on Oryol, FPV truck strike, HIMARS on Makeyevka, DeepState's Pion strike, SOF BTRs) and AD effectiveness. Expose the neglect of Russian war graves as a counter to their "patriotic" narrative. Expose any internal Russian corruption and Ukrainian successes in combating it (Kryvyi Rih). Counter narratives regarding Ukrainian internal divisions (priests, language use). Promote positive stories of Ukrainian veteran support and societal resilience, especially rehabilitation efforts and reconstruction in frontline areas. Publicize humane treatment of Russian POWs.
  2. RAPID DEBUNKING OF MISINFORMATION. Maintain rapid response to immediately debunk unverified and sensationalized claims propagated by Russian state media and milbloggers (e.g., fabricated Israeli/US actions, rapidly escalating and unverified casualty figures, specific BDA claims, and aggressive territorial claims like "Dnipropetrovsk bridgehead" or "Sumy breakthrough," claimed "liberation" of Ulyanovka, Komar, and claims of Tehran residents leaving). Expose Russia's use of emotionally charged propaganda and anti-Semitic rhetoric.
  3. PROMOTE UKRAINIAN RESILIENCE & AD SUCCESSES: Highlight ongoing Ukrainian AD operations and any successful intercepts to reassure the public and international partners of continued defensive capabilities. Project local control and normalcy despite civilian casualties. Publicize formalized veteran support programs to boost morale and show national resilience. Publicize successful counter-intelligence operations and anti-corruption efforts. Publicly highlight official appointments (e.g., new Prosecutor General nominee) to demonstrate governmental stability.
  4. HIGHLIGHT RUSSIAN ALLIANCES WITH PARIAH STATES & ROLE IN GLOBAL INSTABILITY. Emphasize that Russia directly benefits from and seeks to amplify and manipulate global instability, and is now using potentially unverified claims and narratives of US involvement (and fabricated US ties/BDA/casualties and anti-Semitic slurs) to further this aim. Highlight the use of North Korean materiel by Russian forces. Highlight the continued flow of Russian energy revenue from the EU.

• Diplomatic/Inter-Agency:

  1. IMMEDIATE & PROACTIVE: ENGAGE KEY PARTNERS ON SUSTAINED SUPPORT AND COUNTERING RUSSIAN DIPLOMATIC MANIPULATION AND AID NARRATIVES. Ukrainian diplomatic missions should immediately engage with US, EU, and other key partners to address "The Telegraph" report on aid cessation. Seek clarification and a unified, strong public message of continued robust support. Emphasize that such narratives are deliberate Russian attempts to sow discord and undermine support. Leverage the confirmed Trump-Zelenskyy meeting at the G7 summit to reinforce direct communication and continued high-level engagement.
  2. COORDINATE WITH ALLIES ON IO STRATEGY: Coordinate closely with allied IO agencies to ensure a unified and consistent counter-narrative to Russian disinformation, particularly regarding aid, global conflict, and the new, more extreme and manipulative narratives, including the direct attempt to draw the US into the Middle East conflict with fabricated claims and unverified BDA/casualties, the sensational claims of "hypersonic" use, claims of Iranian NPT withdrawal (and its denial), and the introduction of overt anti-Semitic propaganda and nuclear threats. Also coordinate response to Russian diplomatic actions in the Middle East and the "Ukraine for Iran" rhetoric, and Iranian MFA calls to UNSC. Coordinate immediate debunking of any "massive explosion" videos identified as false flags/misattributed. Crucially, coordinate a unified and immediate diplomatic response to the Russian "hostage-taking" false flag claim, condemning it as a blatant fabrication designed to escalate. MOST CRITICALLY, COORDINATE IMMEDIATE, FORCEFUL DIPLOMATIC CONDEMNATION OF THE FABRICATED CLAIM OF "US EMBASSY DAMAGE IN TEL AVIV." Coordinate on exposing Medinsky's manipulation of body exchange numbers.
  3. INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION OF CIVILIAN/INDUSTRIAL TARGETING AND RUSSIAN ANTI-SEMITIC PROPAGANDA. Continue to highlight Russian strikes on civilian/industrial targets to maintain international pressure and secure further AD assistance. Simultaneously, seek strong international condemnation of Russia's use of overt anti-Semitic propaganda as a tool of information warfare. Condemn Russia's punitive measures against citizens in Belgorod. Engage international partners regarding the Hungarian ruling party's "discreditation" campaign.
  4. ENGAGE WITH INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS ON VETERAN SUPPORT & RECONSTRUCTION. Seek international assistance and partnerships for formal veteran support programs to ensure their sustainability and effectiveness. Actively solicit and manage international aid for reconstruction efforts in frontline regions like Zaporizhzhia.
  5. ADDRESS INTERNAL CORRUPTION WITH INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT. Seek international support and expertise for combating large-scale corruption, particularly when it impacts critical civilian infrastructure during wartime, as highlighted by the Kryvyi Rih case. This demonstrates Ukraine's commitment to good governance and strengthens its case for international aid.
  6. ADDRESS PUBLIC HEALTH RISKS IN CONFLICT ZONES. Coordinate with international humanitarian organizations (WHO, Red Cross) to address and mitigate public health risks such as cholera in front-line and occupied territories, advocating for safe access to water and sanitation.