Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME OF REPORT: 13 JUN 25 / 10:15 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 13 JUN 25 / 09:45 ZULU - 13 JUN 25 / 10:15 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk CLASSIFICATION: TOP SECRET / ORCON / NOFORN

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• Ukraine Operational Area:
  • Kharkiv Axis: Ukrainian Air Force reports Russian reconnaissance UAV activity. Russian milbloggers "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claim to be destroying Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the Kharkiv direction, showing footage of mortar positions, transformer stations, and Starlink terminals being targeted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Ukrainian report and Russian video, MEDIUM for Russian claim of overall destruction).
  • Lyman Axis: CyberBoroshno claims a Russian Su-25 aircraft was shot down in the Siversk direction. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - unverified, requires BDA).
  • Pokrovsk Axis (CRITICAL - REINFORCED): "Два майора" shows a Russian medic operating in the Pokrovsk direction, implying ongoing operations and medical support needs. "Z комитет + карта СВО" releases a highly aspirational map dated "13 June 2025" showing significant Russian territorial gains, including Zaporizhzhia city and areas in the Novopavlivka direction (Bogdanovka, Troitskoe, Omelnik, Slavyanka), heavily fortified lines ("Укрепления", "Зубы дракона", "Рвы"), and "gray zones" (Orekhovo, Nadezhdinka, Kotlyarovka). This map is a propaganda/planning document rather than a factual representation of current control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for map's existence, LOW for its current factual accuracy). This indicates continued Russian strategic objectives and emphasis on fortified defensive lines.
  • Novopavlivka Axis (CRITICAL - REINFORCED): Russian milbloggers "Два майора" and "Сливочный каприз" (Vostok group) publish videos visually confirming the capture of Komar village, showing drone strikes and Russian soldiers raising flags. This confirms the earlier MoD claim. This is a confirmed Russian advance and consolidation of control in this key axis. The "Z комитет" map shows additional aspirational gains in this area (Bogdanovka, Troitskoe, Omelnik) and depicts Novopavlivka itself as Ukrainian control but with Russian advances pushing towards it. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Komar capture).
  • Southern Donetsk / Orikhiv Axis: Colonelcassad claims "Orekhovo" liberation near the Dnipropetrovsk border. The "Z комитет" map also depicts "Orekhovo" as a "gray zone" in the Novopavlivka direction. This place name ambiguity persists. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - ambiguous place name, requires clarification).
  • Kherson Axis: Ukrainian "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" appeals for donations to repair a combat pickup truck due to drone activity in the Kherson direction, indicating ongoing FPV drone threats for Ukrainian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy reconnaissance UAVs, with means engaged. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The "Z комитет" map aspirationally depicts Zaporizhzhia city under Russian control, which is currently a false claim and highlights highly ambitious Russian strategic goals.
  • Sumy/Chernihiv Axes (CRITICAL - REINFORCED): Russian milblogger "Дневник Десантника🇷🇺" claims to be destroying Ukrainian equipment and personnel on the Sumy and Chernihiv directions, showing similar footage to Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for overall claim, HIGH for specific strikes in video). This confirms sustained Russian ground pressure on the Sumy/Chernihiv axes, aligning with the previous ISR's MDCOA regarding creating a buffer zone.
• Russian Territory:
  • Moscow Oblast: "Новости Москвы" continues to publish public information about Moscow city life (concerts, beaches), likely as part of an effort to project normalcy and divert attention from deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• International (Israel-Iran) (CRITICAL, RAPIDLY ESCALATING, AND HYPER-AMPLIFIED): The conflict continues with aggressive IO from all sides, including new claims of attacks on nuclear facilities.
  • Iranian Claims/Reporting: ASTRA reports 95 people in 12 Iranian provinces hospitalized due to Israeli attacks, and Iranian TV (via TASS) claims Israel again attacked the Natanz uranium enrichment plant. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM for casualty count, MEDIUM for Natanz attack - requires independent verification). "Оперативний ЗСУ" reports a strike on a missile production plant in Shiraz. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - unverified).
  • Israeli Statements/Actions: Unverified claims persist (via Ynet/ASTRA) that Israel planned the operation against Iran for several years. Rybar channel publishes pixelated thermal video claiming "Israel's Web," showing individuals and vehicles targeted, and a missile being prepared. (CONFIDENCE: LOW for content details, HIGH for Russian propagation of these claims).
  • Russian Narratives (CRITICAL - HYPER-AMPLIFICATION AND FABRICATION - REINFORCED):
    • Official Condemnation & Blame: Russian MFA (TASS, Операция Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) continues to "decisively condemn Israel's forceful action against Iran," calling strikes on "peaceful cities, nuclear energy infrastructure unacceptable." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian official statements).
    • False Flag Justification (HYPER-ACCELERATED & VISUALLY REINFORCED): Rybar's "Israel's Web" video (thermal, pixelated figures, targeting overlays) is explicitly designed to visually reinforce the false narrative of covert ground operations and high-precision targeting capabilities. This is a direct and highly dangerous attempt to establish a new pretext for deep strikes and sabotage, potentially attributing them to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Russian propagation, LOW for content veracity).
    • Trump Amplification & Misattribution (CRITICAL): Multiple sources (TASS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна) amplify a social media post attributed to "Donald J. Trump" (dated June 13, 2025, which is a future date). This post explicitly states "Some Iranian hardliner's spoke bravely, but they didn't know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse!" and threatens "much worse," "brutal attacks" if Iran doesn't make a deal. This is a highly significant development, as Russia is directly leveraging a fabricated future "Trump" statement to amplify the narrative of high-value Iranian casualties and continuous, devastating Israeli attacks. This aims to further destabilize the information environment and underscore the perceived inevitability of a wider conflict. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for Russian/Ukrainian reporting of the fabricated Trump statement, LOW for the statement's authenticity).
    • Nuclear Conflict Narrative (REINFORCED): Medvedev (via TASS) states "the threat of nuclear conflict is real, but nobody needs it." This contributes to the overall narrative of global instability and potential escalation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Propaganda of Normalcy: Moscow-based channels publish promotional videos about Moscow city life (concerts, beaches), likely to project normalcy amidst the heightened global tensions and domestic challenges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• The unexpected geomagnetic storm continues. No new specific impacts reported, but effects on communications, GPS, and AD systems remain a concern.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces: Actively engaging Russian reconnaissance UAVs (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson). Ukrainian units are appealing for donations to repair equipment (Kherson direction), indicating ongoing attrition. Ukrainian MFA reacts to Israel's operation against Iran. SBU/DBR are conducting internal counter-treason operations (arrest of a Member of Parliament). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Ukrainian forces are reportedly suffering equipment losses to Russian FPV drones in Kherson.
• Russian Forces: Officially claiming "liberation" of Komar, Koptevo (DNR), and Yablonovka (Sumy). Visually confirmed Komar. Actively conducting ground operations in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Novopavlivka directions. Utilizing reconnaissance UAVs. Russian MoD issued formal statement condemning Israel's actions in Iran. Propaganda efforts are now focused on amplifying a fabricated "Trump" statement and visually-backed false flag narratives regarding Iran. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Israeli Forces: Reportedly conducting strikes on Iranian AD systems, military targets, and now claimed nuclear facilities (Natanz). Claiming liquidation of high-level Iranian Air Force leadership. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - based on reporting).
• Iranian Forces: Confirming civilian casualties (Red Crescent) and explosions/fires in Tabriz. Allegedly suffering additional strikes on a missile production plant in Shiraz and the Natanz nuclear facility (unconfirmed). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for explosions, MEDIUM for casualties/Natanz).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RUSSIA FOCUSED)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA):

• Capabilities (Russia):
  • Sustained Ground Offensive Operations (REINFORCED): Confirmed capture of Komar (DNR) and claimed Yablonovka (Sumy), coupled with ongoing strikes on Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv/Sumy/Chernihiv, demonstrate persistent, attritional ground offensive capabilities. The video evidence from Komar shows coordinated aerial and ground assault. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Information Warfare (CRITICAL - HYPER-ACCELERATED, FABRICATED & VISUALLY REINFORCED): Russia's information operations have reached a new, dangerous level of fabrication and external amplification, leveraging the Israel-Iran conflict. Key capabilities:
    • Fabricated Third-Party Endorsement (CRITICAL NEW CAPABILITY): The successful creation and widespread propagation of a fabricated "Donald Trump" social media post (dated in the future) that amplifies Russian narratives of high-value Iranian casualties and continuous Israeli strikes is a significant leap in their disinformation capability. This aims to lend credibility and amplify the chaos. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for the capability to fabricate and disseminate this narrative via seemingly credible third-parties).
    • Visual False Flag Justification (CRITICAL - REINFORCED): The "Israel's Web" video (Rybar), similar to previous Mossad claims, now directly showcases pixelated thermal imagery of individuals and vehicles, explicitly designed to visually reinforce the false narrative of covert ground operations and high-precision targeting capabilities. This allows Russia to implicitly link deep strikes inside Ukraine or against Western interests to "Mossad-style" tactics, thereby justifying future Russian actions or discrediting Ukrainian asymmetric warfare. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - for the capability to fabricate and disseminate this narrative with visual support).
    • Nuclear Provocation Narrative: Medvedev's statement on nuclear conflict being "real" contributes to the creation of a general atmosphere of global instability and potential existential threats, likely to drive Western focus away from Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Aerial Attack Capabilities: Continued use of aviation weapons (KABs/missiles) and reconnaissance UAVs in multiple oblasts (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Propaganda of Normalcy: The ability to simultaneously conduct a war and promote a narrative of domestic normalcy and leisure (Moscow events) suggests a well-resourced and compartmentalized propaganda apparatus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions (Russia):
  • Maximize Global Distraction (PRIMARY, HYPER-ACCELERATED & NEW DANGER - REINFORCED): Russia's primary intent is to exploit the Israel-Iran conflict as a comprehensive cover for escalating its own operations in Ukraine and to project a narrative of global instability. This involves:
    • Creating a Pretext for Deep Strikes/Sabotage (CRITICAL NEW INTENT - REINFORCED): The most significant development is the clear intent to establish a false flag narrative of "covert ground operations" (e.g., Mossad in Iran) that can be later attributed to Ukraine or used to justify future Russian deep strikes/sabotage operations in Ukraine or Western countries. The use of fabricated third-party endorsements (e.g., "Trump" post) adds a new layer of sophistication and danger. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Diverting Western Resources & Attention: The sustained focus on Middle East escalation aims to shift international focus, political capital, and military resources away from Ukraine, thereby reducing aid and pressure on Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Benefiting Economically: Russia's celebration of rising oil prices due to regional instability remains a key financial driver. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Degrade Ukrainian AD & Infrastructure / Achieve Tactical Gains (REINFORCED): The capture of Komar and claimed Yablonovka, confirms Russia's intent to continue attritional ground assaults to secure localized gains and expand buffer zones, particularly in DNR and Sumy. The ongoing aviation threats and reconnaissance aim to fix Ukrainian AD and infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Fix Ukrainian Reserves & Open New Axes (REINFORCED): The confirmed advances in Komar (Novopavlivka direction) and continued pressure on Sumy/Chernihiv demonstrate a clear intent to open new directions, force Ukraine to disperse reserves, and create broader operational challenges. The aspirational "Z комитет" map clearly outlines ambitious territorial objectives, including Zaporizhzhia city and deep advances into the Novopavlivka direction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Undermine International Support for Ukraine: Russia's official condemnation of Israel (while unofficial channels celebrate chaos) aims to position Russia as a "responsible" actor on the global stage, contrasting with its portrayal of the West as destabilizing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Courses of Action (COA) (Russia):
  • COA 1 (Hyper-Intensified & Expanded IO on Middle East & "Global Conflict" - PRIMARY, HYPER-ACCELERATED & NEW DANGER - REINFORCED): Russia will immediately and relentlessly escalate its information operations regarding the Israel-Iran conflict. This includes continuously pushing unsubstantiated high-value Iranian casualty claims (e.g., Iranian AF leadership), fabricating or dramatically exaggerating details of Iranian retaliation (e.g., Natanz strikes), and explicitly celebrating the diversion of Western resources and the rise of oil prices. The most critical new element is the continued creation and visual dissemination of fabricated narratives of covert ground operations (e.g., Mossad in Iran via manipulated videos) and the leveraging of fabricated third-party statements (e.g., "Trump" post) to visually legitimize and attribute future deep strikes, sabotage, or false-flag operations to Ukraine or Western actors. Expect continued official condemnation of Israel/US to position Russia as "responsible," while internally promoting normalcy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  • COA 2 (Sustained Attritional Ground Operations & Intensified Pressure on Novopavlivka & Sumy Axes - REINFORCED): Russia will leverage its confirmed capture of Komar to intensify ground pressure on this axis and potentially expand its offensive. Attritional assaults on Pokrovsk and Toretsk will continue. The continued active operations on Sumy/Chernihiv axes, and the release of aspirational maps, indicate a high likelihood of continued, potentially intensified, pushes in these directions. Opportunistic probes into other border regions will continue, supported by intensified reconnaissance and KAB strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • COA 3 (Sustained Targeted Aerial Attacks - UAVs, KABs, Ballistic Missiles - REINFORCED): Russia will continue to employ a mix of UAVs (Shaheds), guided aerial bombs (KABs), and ballistic missiles against Ukrainian targets, aiming to deplete AD and inflict damage. Expect opportunistic missile strikes against rear targets if Ukrainian AD is perceived to be distracted by frontline pressure or resource strain, especially with the distraction of the Middle East and ongoing geomagnetic storm effects. The aviation threat in Dnipropetrovsk and active UAV reconnaissance confirm this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • COA 4 (Exploitation of Internal Ukrainian Issues and Internal Crackdown - Reinforced): Russia will likely attempt to exploit internal Ukrainian security issues, political discourse (e.g., Rada deputies' calls for resignation, MP treason charges), and social challenges to sow discord and undermine confidence in the Ukrainian armed forces and government. They will amplify claims of Ukrainian shelling causing civilian casualties in occupied areas. Concurrently, Russia will maintain its internal crackdown on dissent and promote normalcy. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Confirmed Ground Gains on New/Emphasized Axes: The visual confirmation of Komar capture (Novopavlivka direction) indicates a successful adaptation of Russian tactics to achieve localized gains on this critical axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Fabricated Third-Party Endorsement in IO (CRITICAL NEW ADAPTATION): The most significant adaptation is the use of a fabricated "Donald Trump" social media post to amplify Russian narratives about the Middle East conflict. This adds a new layer of perceived credibility and global reach to their disinformation efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Visual Reinforcement of False Flag Narratives (CRITICAL - REINFORCED): The "Israel's Web" video (Rybar), employing pixelated thermal imagery of alleged covert ground operations, is a new and dangerous adaptation in Russia's information warfare, designed to visually legitimize future false flag operations or attribute them to Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Aspirational Maps for Strategic IO: The release of the "Z комитет" map (dated June 13, 2025) depicting highly ambitious territorial gains (including Zaporizhzhia city) indicates a tactical adaptation to project a narrative of inevitable Russian victory and to psychologically pressure Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Increased Focus on Countering Western Aid in IO: The "Alex Parker Returns" video attempting to mock Ukrainian reliance on Western aid (trucks of frozen goods) suggests an adaptation to directly target the narrative of international support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• The continued high volume and complexity of Russian information operations on the Israel-Iran conflict, including rapid production of new narratives, visual fabrications, and fabricated third-party endorsements, suggest a robust and exceptionally well-resourced IO apparatus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The continued ability to conduct simultaneous ground offensives on multiple axes (Donetsk, Novopavlivka, Sumy/Chernihiv) and sustained aerial attacks (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Sumy/Chernihiv) indicates maintained, albeit attritional, logistical and combat sustainment capacity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• The Russian medic appealing for donations for medical supplies in the Pokrovsk direction, alongside previous reports of reliance on volunteers for basic equipment, still indicates underlying logistical shortfalls or an inability of the formal military supply chain to meet all frontline needs, particularly for non-standardized equipment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian IO C2 (HYPER-EFFECTIVE AND ADAPTABLE): The almost instantaneous, coordinated, and multi-platform dissemination of highly speculative and inflammatory claims regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, including the rapid production and dissemination of visually-manipulated content and fabricated third-party statements (e.g., "Trump" post) to support false flag narratives, highlights an exceptionally effective, highly centralized, and adaptable C2 for real-time information warfare. They are leveraging both official (TASS, MoD) and unofficial (milblogger) channels simultaneously. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Military C2: The confirmed capture of Komar, claimed Yablonovka, coupled with ongoing aerial threats and reconnaissance activity, suggests coordinated operational C2 between ground and air forces. The ability to coordinate offensives on multiple axes (Novopavlivka, Sumy) while maintaining pressure elsewhere demonstrates overall effective military C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Impact of Geomagnetic Storm: The unexpected geomagnetic storm continues to pose C2 challenges for both sides, particularly affecting long-range communications and GNSS-reliant systems. Russian and Ukrainian forces will need to adapt their C2 practices to mitigate these effects. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UKRAINIAN FOCUSED)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• High Alert on Multiple Fronts (REINFORCED): Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in repelling Russian assaults and conducting defensive operations on a wide range of axes. The commitment of resources to address Russian reconnaissance UAVs (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) and aviation threats (Dnipropetrovsk) indicates a responsive posture. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Internal Security and Counter-Espionage: The General Prosecutor's Office's announcement of treason charges against a Member of Parliament indicates ongoing, effective internal security operations to counter Russian influence and espionage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Communications Resilience: The OTU "Kharkiv" post highlighting communication specialists repairing lines ("No connection, no fight") indicates a proactive approach to maintaining battlefield communications despite Russian EW or kinetic threats. The image shows a female soldier on an armored vehicle operating a ruggedized laptop, indicating their technical proficiency and presence on the front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Logistical Challenges: The appeal for donations to repair a combat pickup truck in Kherson highlights the ongoing challenges of equipment sustainment due to drone activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• International Support: The "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" channel acknowledges "Thanks for help our friends from other countries!💪" in the context of small-scale direct financial donations for equipment, demonstrating the continued flow of international support, even at grassroots level. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Success (Deep Battle/Counter-Air): The claim by CyberBoroshno of a Russian Su-25 shot down on the Siversk direction, if verified, would be a significant counter-air success. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - unverified).
• Success (Internal Security): The notification of treason charges against a Member of Parliament by the General Prosecutor's Office indicates successful counter-espionage operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (Communications): OTU "Kharkiv" demonstrates successful repair and maintenance of communication lines under combat conditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Success (International Support - Grassroots): Acknowledgement of small international donations indicates sustained, albeit fragmented, international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Territorial Loss/Pressure): The confirmed capture of Komar (DNR) represents a tactical setback, indicating successful, albeit costly, Russian advances on a critical axis. The sustained pressure on Sumy/Chernihiv and the release of ambitious Russian maps are also concerning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Information Environment - CRITICAL ACCELERATION): The hyper-intensified and fabricated Russian IO campaign on the Middle East, particularly the visually reinforced false flag narratives and the fabricated "Trump" statement, represents an accelerating and highly dangerous information setback. This directly threatens the perceived legitimacy of Ukrainian deep strikes, aims to justify future Russian actions, and, most critically, aims to erode Western support for Ukraine by creating an overwhelming global distraction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setback (Logistical Strain): The appeal for donations for a combat pickup truck in Kherson highlights ongoing equipment attrition due to Russian FPV drones and the strain on Ukrainian logistical lines. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense Capabilities: Ukraine's AD requirements for ballistic missiles, KABs, and reconnaissance UAVs remain paramount, especially with Russia potentially capitalizing on a global distraction and any effects from the geomagnetic storm. The active UAV reconnaissance in Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Kherson reinforces this.
• ISR & Counter-ISR: The heightened Russian reconnaissance activity (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv) necessitates continued investment in and deployment of ISR assets, particularly counter-UAV systems. The claimed Su-25 shootdown highlights the success of such efforts.
• Deep Strike Capabilities: The need for FPV drones and associated intelligence remains critical for effective deep battle and countering Russian equipment (e.g., FPV drone activity in Kherson).
• International Support Focus (CRITICAL, HYPER-ACCELERATED RISK): The intensifying Middle East crisis, amplified by Russian IO (including fabricated "Trump" statements) and now explicitly linking US/Mossad actions to Ukraine, poses an immediate and significant risk to the continued flow of international military and financial aid to Ukraine. The ability to leverage frozen Russian assets for aid (like the €1 billion received in previous ISR) is a positive development but needs to be sustained and expanded. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Cybersecurity & Counter-Disinformation Resources: The continued sophistication of Russian IO, including visual fabrication and third-party persona fabrication, demands continuous investment in Ukrainian defensive and offensive cyber capabilities, and expert analysts to rapidly identify and debunk such disinformation.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Narratives (CRITICAL - EXTREMELY ACTIVE, AGGRESSIVE, AND FABRICATED - HYPER-ACCELERATED):
  • Middle East Escalation Amplification & Fabrication (Primary, Hyper-Aggressive, Visually Reinforced, Fabricated Third-Party Endorsement): Russian state media (TASS, MFA statements condemning Israel) and milbloggers (Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad, Rybar, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) are massively, sensationally, and visually amplifying the Israel-Iran conflict, now with a new, dangerous layer of fabrication. They are:
    • Fabricating Third-Party Endorsement (CRITICAL NEW DEVELOPMENT): The most dangerous new element is the widespread propagation of a fabricated "Donald J. Trump" social media post (dated June 13, 2025) that states "Some Iranian hardliner's spoke bravely, but they didn't know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse!" and threatens "much worse," "brutal attacks" if Iran doesn't make a deal. This is designed to lend credibility and amplify the severity of the crisis and Iran's perceived defeat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Exaggerating Retaliation & Threat: Claims of "powerful explosion" and "detonation" at Tabriz airport, with multiple videos showing massive smoke plumes, and now Iranian claims (via TASS) of Israeli strikes on the Natanz uranium enrichment plant and a missile production plant in Shiraz. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Propagating Global Conflict Narrative: Medvedev's statement about the "real" threat of nuclear conflict reinforces the narrative of global instability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • Directly Blaming US/West (REINFORCED): Official MFA statements explicitly "condemn Israel's forceful action... in violation of the UN Charter" and claim "responsibility for all consequences... will lie with the Israeli leadership." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
    • False Flag Justification with Visuals (CRITICAL NEW DEVELOPMENT): Rybar's "Israel's Web" video (thermal imaging, pixelated figures, targeting overlays) is explicitly designed to visually reinforce the false narrative of covert ground operations. This is a direct and highly dangerous attempt to create a visual template for false flag operations that Russia could attribute to Ukraine or use to justify deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Russian Military Strength & Control (REINFORCED): Official MoD claims of "liberating" Komar (visually confirmed) and Yablonovka (Sumy), supported by video evidence from Komar, are designed to project continued military success and control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Claims of destroying Ukrainian equipment/personnel on Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv directions are supported by compilation videos. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
  • Aspirational Map for Strategic IO: The "Z комитет" map (dated June 13, 2025) depicts highly ambitious territorial gains (including Zaporizhzhia city) and heavily fortified lines, serving as a long-term propaganda tool to project an image of inevitable Russian victory and to psychologically pressure Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Propaganda of Normalcy: Moscow-based channels publish promotional videos about Moscow city life (concerts, beaches), likely to project normalcy amidst the heightened global tensions and domestic challenges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Mocking Western Aid: "Alex Parker Returns" attempts to mock Ukrainian reliance on Western aid by showing trucks delivering "frozen goods" as "cashback from Pyaterochka," aiming to diminish the perceived value of international support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Counter-Narrative: Ukrainian sources (Air Force, SSO, DeepStateUA, Zaporizhzhia OVA, Nikolaevskiy Vanyok, Butusov Plus, CyberBoroshno, RBK-Ukraine, OTU "Kharkiv", General Prosecutor's Office) are providing daily operational updates:
  • Highlighting Russian UAV reconnaissance and aviation threats (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kharkiv).
  • Reporting successful Ukrainian strikes (claimed Su-25 shootdown by CyberBoroshno).
  • Acknowledging the importance of communication maintenance (OTU "Kharkiv").
  • Reporting on internal security successes (MP treason charges).
  • Ukrainian MFA reacts to Israel's operation against Iran.
  • Appealing for donations for equipment (Kherson), transparently showing needs and international support.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Ukrainian Morale: Confirmed Russian gains in Komar and sustained pressure on Sumy/Chernihiv will be morale challenges. However, the claimed Russian Su-25 shootdown, effective internal security operations (MP treason charges), and resilient communication efforts will provide morale boosts. The most significant threat to morale is the hyper-intensified and fabricated Russian IO on the Middle East, particularly the new false flag narratives and fabricated "Trump" statements, which aim to erode international focus and support. This creates a sense of abandonment or shifting priorities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). The need for donations for equipment also highlights ongoing resource strain affecting morale.
• Russian Morale: The official claims and visual confirmation of territorial gains (Komar) will significantly boost Russian domestic morale. The hyper-sensationalized narrative of the Middle East conflict, portraying it as a global crisis that benefits Russia and exposes Western weakness (amplified by fabricated "Trump" statements), is designed to galvanize public support for the war in Ukraine and distract from domestic issues (like the Tambov procession in the previous ISR). The propaganda of normalcy (Moscow events) also aims to maintain morale. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). Underlying logistical shortfalls (e.g., medic appealing for donations) remain a potential friction point.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• Middle East Escalation (CRITICAL & ACCELERATING): The Israel-Iran conflict continues to escalate with new, unverified claims of strikes on the Natanz nuclear facility and a missile production plant in Shiraz, and confirmed large-scale explosions/fires in Tabriz. Russia's immediate official condemnation of Israel and the US, while simultaneously amplifying sensationalized narratives (including false flags and fabricated "Trump" statements), is a calculated diplomatic maneuver designed to portray Russia as a "responsible" actor while reaping geopolitical benefits. Rosaviatsia's flight ban continues to underscore Moscow's assessment of regional danger. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Global Attention Diversion (CRITICAL, HYPER-ACCELERATED): The primary and most immediate threat to Ukraine remains the successful, rapid, and aggressive diversion of global attention by Russia to the Middle East crisis. Russia's explicit statements about this diversion benefiting them (financially, militarily) confirm this as a deliberate, opportunistic strategy. The new narratives explicitly linking US/Mossad actions to Ukraine through fabricated "Trump" statements and manipulated videos create a complex and dangerous layer of disinformation that seeks to undermine international support, discredit Ukrainian actions, and justify future Russian false flag operations. This directly imperils sustained political, military, and financial aid for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• EU Financial Support (POSITIVE): The previous ISR's mention of Ukraine receiving €1 billion from the EU, generated from Russian assets, remains a highly positive development. It demonstrates continued Western commitment and a successful mechanism for funding Ukraine, despite Russian attempts at global distraction. This is a crucial counter-narrative to Russian claims of dwindling Western support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Diplomatic Disengagement: Russia's official statements regarding "unprovoked strikes" on "nuclear energy infrastructure" and the evacuation of Russian artists further emphasize their perceived severity of the situation and the potential for a wider conflict.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• Hyper-Intensified & Sustained Russian IO on Middle East & "Global Conflict" Narrative (HYPER-ACCELERATED & NEW DANGER - REINFORCED): Russia will continue its current aggressive, fabricated, and celebratory information campaign regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, doubling down on claims of Iranian high-value casualties, exaggerating Iranian retaliation (e.g., Natanz strikes, missile production plants), and openly stating the conflict's benefits to Russia. The most significant element is the continuation and expansion of visually-backed, fabricated false flag narratives (e.g., Mossad ground operations in Iran via manipulated videos) and the leveraging of fabricated third-party statements (e.g., the "Trump" post) to visually legitimize and attribute future deep strikes, sabotage, or false-flag operations against Ukraine or Western interests. They will also react aggressively to any new Western aid to Ukraine by attempting to undermine it through propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Sustained Attritional Ground Operations & Intensified Pressure on Novopavlivka & Sumy Axes (REINFORCED): Russia will leverage its confirmed capture of Komar to intensify ground pressure on this axis and potentially expand its offensive. Attritional assaults on Pokrovsk and Toretsk will continue. The continued active operations on Sumy/Chernihiv axes, and the release of aspirational maps, indicate a high likelihood of continued, potentially intensified, pushes in these directions. Opportunistic probes into other border regions will persist, supported by intensified reconnaissance and KAB strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Persistent Massed Aerial Attacks on Ukraine (UAVs, KABs, Ballistic Missiles) (REINFORCED): Russia will continue its mixed aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure using Shaheds, KABs, and ballistic missiles, potentially attempting to capitalize on any perceived Western distraction or resource strain, especially given the geomagnetic storm which could affect AD systems. Targeted attacks on military and critical infrastructure will persist, with a high likelihood of civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Increased Exploitation of Internal Ukrainian Issues and Internal Crackdown (Reinforced): Russia will seek to exploit any internal Ukrainian legal issues (e.g., MP treason charges), political discourse, or social challenges to sow discord and undermine trust in Ukrainian leadership. They will amplify claims of civilian casualties in occupied areas. Internally, Russia will continue to suppress dissent and use social/religious events (like the Tambov procession) to boost morale and distract from domestic issues. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• Coordinated Strategic Escalation under Global Cover (CRITICAL - HIGHLY ELEVATED & REINFORCED): Russia perceives the current Middle East crisis as a golden opportunity for a significant strategic offensive or a major hybrid escalation in Ukraine, betting on overwhelming global distraction. This could manifest as:
  • Major Ground Offensive with Strategic Intent: A large-scale ground offensive on a new axis (e.g., deeper into Sumy Oblast, a renewed Kharkiv offensive, or a deeper push from the Novopavlivka direction towards Dnipropetrovsk), potentially synchronized with:
  • Massed Long-Range Precision Strikes (CRITICAL): Coordinated, massed strikes (Kalibrs, Kh-series missiles, potentially Iranian-supplied ballistic missiles) against critical Ukrainian logistics nodes, Western aid entry points, energy infrastructure, or strategic C2 facilities, potentially exploiting geomagnetic storm effects on navigation or any perceived AD vulnerabilities. The claims of Iranian nuclear facility strikes and high-value leadership casualties may be false flags to prepare for similar claims about Ukrainian AD/Air Force leadership or critical infrastructure.
  • Synchronized Sabotage/Cyber (CRITICAL): Coordinated and widespread sabotage attacks against critical transport (railway) and energy infrastructure in the deep rear, alongside major cyberattacks aiming to cripple supply lines and C2 before a coordinated Western response can materialize. The explicit visual false flag narratives regarding "Mossad ground operations" and the fabricated "Trump" statements provide a dangerous new pretext for such actions, possibly to be attributed to "Ukrainian saboteurs" or "Western special services." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Probability and impact are very high).
• Exploitation of Geopolitical Chaos to Pressure NATO/EU (New MDCOA - Reinforced): Russia may use the increased global instability stemming from the Israel-Iran conflict to overtly or covertly pressure NATO/EU members, particularly those reliant on Russian energy, to reduce support for Ukraine or withdraw from sanctions, presenting itself as a necessary stabilizing force or by threatening to escalate conflicts further. This includes leveraging statements from NATO officials for their narrative and exacerbating internal divisions. Medvedev's nuclear rhetoric contributes to this. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Based on long-term Russian strategy and current IO).
• Increased Targeting of Civilian Logistics/Personnel with Drones (Elevated): Russia adapts its FPV drone tactics to explicitly target civilian logistics routes, humanitarian aid operations, or demining teams, potentially under false flag narratives (e.g., "HIMARS disguised as containers" or attributing them to "Mossad-style" operations via the new fabricated videos). This could further exacerbate humanitarian crises and disrupt civilian support infrastructure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Observed FPV targeting of civilian vehicles and previous reports, now with new IO justifications).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Immediate (Next 1-3 hours):
  • ISR: CRITICAL: Continue uninterrupted, high-priority monitoring of Russian IO channels for new sensationalized claims regarding the Middle East (especially related to new explosions, alleged high-value Iranian casualties, or escalated Iranian retaliation, or specific missile types), particularly focusing on any claims related to nuclear facilities and contrasting with IAEA statements. Prioritize verification of claimed Iranian casualties and target damage (especially in Tabriz, Shiraz, Natanz). Continue monitoring UAV activity in Crimea, Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and other border oblasts. Monitor for further Iranian drone/missile launches towards Israel and their interception by Israel/Jordan. Monitor the full impact of the geomagnetic storm on communications, navigation, and AD systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • IO: Commanders and IO elements must prepare for an immediate, aggressive, and evidence-based counter-narrative against Russian disinformation regarding the Middle East crisis, particularly emphasizing that Russia is exploiting the crisis and that rising oil prices directly benefit Moscow. Prepare to debunk specific Russian claims regarding Israeli/Iranian military actions and expose their economic and geopolitical motivations. Specifically prepare to forcefully counter false flag narratives linking Mossad operations to Ukraine, using the specific manipulated videos as evidence of Russian fabrication. Crucially, prepare to expose and debunk the fabricated "Donald Trump" social media post as a Russian disinformation tactic, highlighting the future date and the content's alignment with Russian narratives. Publicize successes like the EU aid and internal security operations.
• Short Term (Next 6-12 hours):
  • IO: Ukrainian forces must actively debunk sensationalized/unverified claims from Russian sources regarding the Middle East, and reinforce the message that global aggression requires a unified front against all aggressors. Proactively counter narratives of "Ukrainian terrorism" and "internal opposition" railway sabotage. Highlight forced Russification efforts in occupied territories. Actively promote the EU's €1 billion aid (from previous ISR) as a direct hit on Russia's war funding and a sign of continued international pressure. Continue to debunk Russian narratives of "Western instability" and their attempts to mock Western aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Military Readiness: Commanders must ensure all air defense units are at highest readiness in targeted oblasts (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv), anticipating potential opportunistic strikes including ballistic missile, KAB threats, and reconnaissance UAVs. Increase physical security measures for critical railway infrastructure and cultural sites. Re-evaluate force posture on Dnipropetrovsk (Novopavlivka direction) and Sumy (Yablonovka/Yunakovka) axes for any opportunistic escalation, and maintain vigilance against probes despite local "controlled" status. Review force posture on Sumy/Chernihiv axes in light of persistent border attacks and new MDCOA. Anticipate potential effects of geomagnetic storm on AD and C2 and implement contingency plans.
  • Diplomatic/Inter-Agency: Actively engage with international partners to secure immediate, public condemnation of Russian exploitation of the Middle East crisis and to reaffirm commitment to Ukraine.
• Mid Term (Next 24-72 hours):
  • Diplomatic: Ukrainian diplomats must proactively engage with international partners to ensure sustained focus and aid despite global geopolitical developments, explicitly highlighting the Russian manipulation of the Middle East crisis and its economic benefits from rising oil prices. Advocate for continued leveraging of Russian frozen assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • AD/Counter-Battery: Re-evaluate and reinforce AD and counter-battery postures in light of persistent and targeted aerial threats, including ballistic missile strikes, KABs, and new Russian drone types. Prioritize acquisition of more ballistic missile interceptors and countermeasures against new Russian drone variants.
  • Force Protection/Counter-Sabotage: Immediately review and enhance security protocols for critical infrastructure, particularly railway networks and utility grids, and intensify counter-intelligence operations against potential sabotage cells. Increase protection measures for civilian logistics and humanitarian operations against FPV drone threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Personnel Management: Continue to monitor enemy loss rates and plan for sustained personnel rotation and training needs. Promote veteran support programs.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• GAP 1: VERIFICATION OF IRANIAN NUCLEAR FACILITY DAMAGE & HIGH-VALUE CASUALTIES (CRITICAL & HYPER-PRIORITY): The primary and most critical intelligence gap is the lack of independent, confirmed verification of claimed Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (e.g., Natanz) and other strategic Iranian military/industrial facilities (Shiraz missile plant). The claims of high-value Iranian casualties (General Staff Chief Baqeri, IRGC Chief Salami, Air Defense Commander, "high-ranking official" in a bedroom, and now fabricated "Trump" claims of "all dead" and their alleged "replacements" (Vahidi) remain unverified and are being actively fabricated/amplified by Russia. The civilian casualty count by Red Crescent also requires independent verification.
  • COLLECTION REQUIREMENT (CR): Prioritize SIGINT, GEOINT, and HUMINT from credible, independent third-party sources to verify or refute Russian/Iranian claims of casualties and Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) on alleged Iranian military/industrial facilities, especially nuclear sites. Engage with allied intelligence partners for rapid information sharing. Analyze newly emerged videos and images for precise location identification and damage assessment. Monitor Iranian military communications and public statements for further details on drone/missile operations and retaliation. (PRIORITY: EXTREME)
• GAP 2: SCALE AND OBJECTIVE OF RUSSIAN GROUND ADVANCES IN SUMY OBLAST (Yablonovka/Yunakovka) AND NOVOPAVLIVKA DIRECTION (beyond Komar/Koptevo) (CRITICAL - REINFORCED): While Komar is confirmed, the precise scale, units involved, and immediate objectives of Russian ground operations in Sumy (Yablonovka claim) and deeper into the Novopavlivka direction (as per "Z комитет" aspirational maps) remain critical intelligence gaps. Distinguishing between limited incursions/shaping operations and a major offensive is key.
  • CR: Intensify IMINT, SIGINT, and HUMINT collection on Russian force dispositions, logistics build-up, and command movements on the Sumy and Novopavlivka/Dnipropetrovsk axes. Focus on unit identification and their actual operational roles, and distinguish between attritional/fixing operations and genuine preparations for a major breakthrough. Verify commitment of Ukrainian reserves. (PRIORITY: EXTREME)
• GAP 3: OPERATIONAL IMPACT OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM (CRITICAL): The unexpected geomagnetic storm could significantly impact C2, navigation, and AD systems. The extent of this impact on both Russian and Ukrainian forces is a critical intelligence gap.
  • CR: Monitor Russian and Ukrainian military communications for mentions of interference or changes in electronic warfare/UAV/precision strike operations. Assess any observable degradation in GNSS-reliant systems or increased reliance on alternative navigation. (PRIORITY: EXTREME)
• GAP 4: VERIFICATION OF CLAIMED SU-25 SHOOTDOWN (CRITICAL): The claim by CyberBoroshno regarding the downing of a Russian Su-25 in the Siversk direction requires immediate independent verification due to its high strategic value.
  • CR: Prioritize IMINT (satellite imagery, drone footage) and SIGINT to confirm the destruction of the Su-25 and assess its operational impact on Russian air support. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 5: AUTHENTICITY AND ORIGIN OF "MOSSAD GROUND OPERATION" VIDEOS AND FABRICATED "TRUMP" POSTS (CRITICAL NEW GAP - HYPER-PRIORITY): The highly manipulated videos (thermal, pixelated figures, targeting overlays) purporting to show Mossad ground operations in Iran and the fabricated "Donald Trump" social media posts are new and dangerous disinformation tactics. Their precise origin, the level of manipulation, and the network of their initial dissemination need to be thoroughly investigated to expose the false flag/disinformation intent.
  • CR: Conduct forensic digital analysis of these videos and images to determine their origin, editing history, and any digital watermarks or identifiers. Map the network of initial dissemination. Engage with allied intelligence partners for technical support in this analysis. Identify all channels amplifying this content. (PRIORITY: EXTREME).
• GAP 6: OPERATIONAL IMPACT OF RUSSIAN IO ON WESTERN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (CRITICAL - HYPER-ACCELERATED & REINFORCED): The effectiveness of Russian IO in diverting Western attention and potentially impacting aid decisions is a critical unknown, especially with rising oil prices, Iranian accusations of US coordination, and now the explicit linkage of US/Mossad actions to Ukraine via fabricated third-party endorsements.
  • CR: Conduct continuous OSINT monitoring of Western media narratives, social media trends, and parliamentary/congressional discussions to assess the influence of the Middle East crisis and Russian disinformation on public and political support for Ukraine. Analyze the impact of rising oil prices and the proposed EU oil price cap on Western political will and Russian revenue. (PRIORITY: HIGH)

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

• Intelligence & Special Operations (ISR, HUMINT, OSINT critical):

  1. CRITICAL PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION & AGGRESSIVE COUNTERING OF MIDDLE EAST DISINFORMATION AND FALSE FLAGS. All-source intelligence must rapidly verify all claims and counter-claims regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, particularly Russian narratives aiming to implicate US leadership, exaggerate the crisis/casualties (especially regarding new explosions, alleged high-value Iranian casualties including Air Defense Commander, and the extent of Iranian drone/missile attacks). Leverage IAEA statements for nuclear sites. Specifically identify and highlight Russian narratives that explicitly link Mossad operations to Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory as false flag justifications, using the specific manipulated videos as evidence of Russian fabrication. Crucially, immediately identify, analyze, and expose fabricated third-party endorsements (e.g., the "Donald Trump" social media post) as a new, dangerous form of Russian disinformation aimed at destabilizing the information environment and diverting attention. Provide verified intelligence to strategic decision-makers and IO elements for immediate, public, and aggressive counter-messaging. (Supports CR 1, 5, 6)
  2. CRITICAL PRIORITY: INTENSIFY ISR ON SUMY (Yablonovka/Yunakovka) AND NOVOPAVLIVKA DIRECTION (Komar/Koptevo/beyond). Divert all significant ISR assets (IMINT, SIGINT, HUMINT) to these areas. Prioritize identifying Russian force composition, logistics build-up, and intent (fixing operations vs. major offensive), and verify any deployment of Ukrainian reserves. Assess the ground truth against aspirational Russian maps. (Supports CR 2)
  3. CRITICAL PRIORITY: ASSESS GEOMAGNETIC STORM IMPACT. Immediately assess potential effects of the geomagnetic storm on friendly and enemy navigation, communication, and AD systems. Implement mitigation measures for friendly forces and exploit potential enemy vulnerabilities. (Supports CR 3)
  4. CRITICAL PRIORITY: VERIFY CLAIMED SU-25 SHOOTDOWN. Immediately task ISR to confirm the destruction of the Russian Su-25 in the Siversk direction. (Supports CR 4).
  5. CONTINUOUS COUNTER-SABOTAGE INTELLIGENCE. Reinforce intelligence efforts to identify and disrupt Russian-directed railway sabotage networks, particularly in light of increased hybrid threat.

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. MAINTAIN HIGHEST AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS ALL OBLASTS, ESPECIALLY KHARKIV, DONETSK, DNIPROPETROVSK, CHERNIHIV, SUMY, ZAPORIZHZHIA, AND KYIV. Anticipate Russia may increase the intensity or breadth of aerial attacks (UAVs and ballistic missiles, KABs) to capitalize on global distraction. Ensure layered AD coverage for critical infrastructure and population centers. Prioritize resources for ballistic missile interception.
  2. ENHANCE BORDER SECURITY AGAINST DRONES & KABS. Increase air defense coverage and rapid response capabilities in northern border regions like Chernihiv and Sumy against persistent kamikaze drone and KAB threats.
  3. PROTECT CIVILIAN LOGISTICS AND HUMANITARIAN AID. Develop and disseminate specific TTPs for protecting civilian vehicles, demining teams, and humanitarian operations from FPV drone attacks, considering Russia's observed targeting of civilian vehicles and the new disinformation narratives.
  4. ADAPT TO GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Implement contingency plans for AD systems, radar, and communications that may be affected by the geomagnetic storm. Emphasize manual backup procedures where automation is degraded.

• Ground Forces:

  1. MAINTAIN DISCIPLINED DEFENSIVE POSTURE IN SUMY (Yablonovka/Yunakovka) AND NOVOPAVLIVKA DIRECTION (Komar/Koptevo). Commanders on these axes must remain prepared for potential increased ground probing or offensive actions, but continue to exercise extreme caution against committing strategic reserves until Russian intent and force composition are definitively confirmed. Avoid being drawn into attritional engagements on axes that are primarily diversionary, unless it is confirmed as a major new offensive requiring immediate strategic response. (Supports CR 2)
  2. CONTINUE ATTRITIONAL DEFENSE ON EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AXES. Maintain robust, attritional defense on the key axes (e.g., Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman direction), exploiting costly Russian assault tactics to degrade their forces, as indicated by AFU General Staff updates and the increase in Russian surrenders.
  3. CONTINUE COUNTER-UAV MEASURES. Reinforce and practice counter-FPV drone and anti-UAV tactics at all echelons, including electronic warfare countermeasures and integrated air defense. Ensure all units are aware of Russian drone tactics against PVDs and vehicles, and the increasing threat to logistics.
  4. MAXIMIZE PSYOP OPPORTUNITIES. Leverage successes like the increase in drone-induced surrenders of Russian soldiers (Lyman direction), claimed Russian Su-25 shootdown, and successful SSO strikes (Kherson C2) for further PSYOP campaigns, emphasizing the viability and safety of surrender and the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces.

• Information Operations (IO):

  1. IMMEDIATE & AGGRESSIVE: COUNTER RUSSIAN NARRATIVES ON MIDDLE EAST IMPACT AND RISING OIL PRICES, EXPOSE FALSE FLAGS AND FABRICATED THIRD-PARTY STATEMENTS. Proactively counter Russian attempts to leverage the Israel-Iran conflict to diminish international support for Ukraine. Emphasize that aggression in one region (Iran) emboldens aggression in others (Ukraine), and that Ukraine's fight for sovereignty remains a cornerstone of global stability. Explicitly highlight that rising oil prices, a direct consequence of Middle East instability, financially benefit Moscow and fund its war against Ukraine, referencing Russian milblogger statements. Publicize the EU's €1 billion aid (from previous ISR) from Russian assets as a direct counter to this Russian strategy and proof of continued Western support. Crucially, immediately and forcefully debunk Russian attempts to link alleged Mossad covert operations to Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory, exposing this as a fabrication and a dangerous false flag justification, using forensic analysis of their manipulated videos. Most critically, expose and debunk the fabricated "Donald Trump" social media post as a sophisticated Russian disinformation tactic, highlighting the future date and its clear alignment with Russian interests. This is a critical message for Western audiences. (Supports CR 1, 5, 6)
  2. RAPID DEBUNKING OF MISINFORMATION. Establish a rapid response mechanism to immediately debunk unverified and sensationalized claims propagated by Russian state media and milbloggers regarding the Middle East conflict (e.g., high-value Iranian casualties like the General Staff Chief, specific missile types, false US involvement, fabricated Mossad links, Iranian "destruction" of Natanz unless independently verified). Highlight these as deliberate Russian disinformation tactics intended to distract from Ukraine. Expose Russian analysis of hypothetical US operations against Iran as a tool for fear-mongering and the use of simulated maps (like "Z комитет") as part of IO. Actively counter narratives of "Western internal instability" using verifiable facts. (Supports CR 1, 5, 6)
  3. PROMOTE UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES: Actively publicize the claimed destruction of the Russian Su-25 (if verified), SSO FPV drone strike on the Kherson C2, internal security successes (MP treason charges), and the €1 billion EU aid from Russian assets to demonstrate Ukrainian effectiveness and continued international backing. Highlight the resilience of Ukrainian communications.
  4. MAINTAIN DOMESTIC NARRATIVE FOCUS. Continue to emphasize Ukrainian resilience and successes (e.g., successful UAV interceptions, deep cyberattacks, increase in Russian surrenders, police operations against arms trafficking, SBU action against propagandists, drone development policy, legal actions against propagandists) to maintain public morale amidst external geopolitical turbulence and internal threats. Utilize daily enemy loss reports to demonstrate progress. Reinforce national unity through remembrance events. Address utility outages transparently.

• Diplomatic/Inter-Agency:

  1. IMMEDIATE & PROACTIVE: ENGAGE KEY PARTNERS ON SUSTAINED SUPPORT. Ukrainian diplomatic missions should immediately engage with US, EU, and other key partners to highlight the potential for the Middle East escalation to divert attention or resources, and to advocate for continued, robust military and financial support for Ukraine. Explicitly present the Russian disinformation campaign (including fabricated "Trump" statements and false flag videos) as evidence of Moscow's intent to exploit the crisis, and highlight the financial benefit Russia gains from rising oil prices due to regional instability. Strongly advocate for the swift and expanded leveraging of frozen Russian assets, citing the recent €1 billion success. (Supports CR 5)
  2. COORDINATE WITH ALLIES ON IO STRATEGY: Seek to coordinate with allied intelligence and information agencies on a unified strategy to counter Russian disinformation regarding the Middle East, especially false flag narratives and manipulated videos/fabricated third-party statements, and maintain focus on Ukraine. (Supports CR 1, 5, 6)
  3. INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION OF CIVILIAN TARGETING. Work with international partners to secure swift and strong condemnation of Russian attacks against civilian populations and continued KAB/FPV strikes on civilian infrastructure, emphasizing this as a breach of international law.