Situation Report

OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 09 JUN 25 / 00:49 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 09 JUN 25 / 00:19 ZULU - 09 JUN 25 / 00:49 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• AOR Update: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast, Russian Federation border regions (Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod, Tambov, Voronezh), and the Donetsk axis remain active. Chernihiv Oblast and Rivne Oblast are under direct aerial attack. Odesa Oblast and Black Sea region under active missile threat. Continued emphasis on Zhytomyr Oblast, Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk axis. New reports of Volyn Oblast being targeted.
• New Developments (UKR):
  • Ballistic Launches from Bryansk (Continued Waves): Air Force of Ukraine reports successive waves of ballistic missile launches from Bryansk towards Chernihiv/Kyiv Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source). Nikolaev Vanok reports fifth wave towards Chernihiv/Kyiv from Bryansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR military reporter).
  • "Shahed" Activity (Dubno/Rivne): Nikolaev Vanok reports continued "Shahed" activity (5-11 detected at various times) near Dubno (Rivne Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR military reporter).
  • No Tu-95MS Missile Fixes: Nikolaev Vanok reports no missile launches from Tu-95MS currently fixed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR military reporter).
• New Developments (RU):
  • "Educational Measures" (Kyiv): "НгП раZVедка" (Russian milblogger) explicitly states "Kyiv will receive a second wave of educational measures," followed by claims of "third wave" and "fourth wave of missiles on Kyiv." This confirms continued ballistic/hypersonic targeting of the capital. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, corroborates UKR reporting).
  • Donetsk Direction Strike Footage: TASS posts thermal imagery video of UAV operators striking AFU dugouts in the Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka direction. This is presented as successful precision strike capability. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian state media/milblogger, propaganda footage).
  • Rivne Mockery: "НгП раZVедка" states "Rovno is getting more and more crooked," implying successful strikes in Rivne/Dubno. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, corroborates UKR reporting of explosions).
  • Volyn Question: "НгП раZVедка" asks "What about Volyn?" indicating potential targeting or intent for this region. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian milblogger, suggestive of intent).
  • Russian Airspace Restrictions: TASS reports temporary flight restrictions at airports in Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov, and Tambov. This suggests internal security measures, possibly due to Ukrainian drone activity, or an attempt to obfuscate internal air operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian state media).
  • "Abrams" Destruction Claim: Colonelcassad claims Russian forces have destroyed or captured 26 of 31 US-supplied Abrams tanks, leaving only 5. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian milblogger, high claim, requires independent verification).
  • "Shahed" Downing Claim: Nikolaev Vanok posts a video claiming "all drones of the Kyiv regime were shot down and suppressed." (CONFIDENCE: LOW - Russian milblogger, typical overblown propaganda, contradicts confirmed Shahed activity).
• Internal Russian Developments:
  • Gorno-Altaysk Fire Update: TASS reports open burning in Gymnasium #3 in Gorno-Altaysk has been extinguished. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian state media, confirms previous report of incident).
  • Greta Thunberg Attack: TASS reports on a Reuters claim of Greta Thunberg's vessel "Madeline" being attacked. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian state media, likely distraction/attention diversion).
  • "CyberBoroshno" Activity: CyberBoroshno (Ukrainian cyber activist channel) claims "a local will be in Cheboksary, we are not sleeping anyway." This implies a potential cyberattack targeting Cheboksary. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - UKR cyber activist, unverified but consistent with previous operations).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Conducive to All Aerial Operations: Continued mass aerial assaults confirm clear weather. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (Air Defense): At MAXIMUM readiness, actively engaging multiple waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders from Bryansk/Kursk), strategic cruise missiles, and "Shahed" UAVs. AD assets remain severely strained across a widening multi-axis engagement, now confirmed over Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Rivne (Dubno), Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk regions, and potentially Volyn. Despite active engagements, confirmed explosions in Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Rivne indicate continued penetration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Forces (Ground): Maintaining defensive postures. Continued pressure on the Donetsk axis remains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Air): Confirmed launch of MiG-31K with "Kinzhal" (previous report) and multiple, successive waves of ballistic missiles (likely Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts. While Tu-95MS missiles are not currently fixed, the previous launches from 5x Tu-95MS and Kh-22s from 4x Tu-22M3 indicate a preceding strategic wave. This confirms a sustained, unprecedented, multi-platform, multi-axis, and multi-modal strategic missile attack, including hypersonic and ballistic assets, at its highest observed intensity. Shaheds continue to impact multiple oblasts, and missile impacts are confirmed in Kyiv, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, and Rivne Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Information Operations): Highly aggressive and adaptive, explicitly promoting successive waves of strikes on Kyiv ("educational measures"), using footage of claimed tactical successes, and continuing misdirection ("Chernihiv not needed," implying Rivne/Dubno is target, asking about Volyn). Direct threats and dehumanizing rhetoric continue. Distraction tactics (Greta Thunberg, US politics) are also observed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Capabilities:
  • Sustained Full-Spectrum Strategic Air Strike Capability (Confirmed & Active at Maximum Scale): Russia is currently demonstrating its capability to conduct a sustained, massive, multi-platform, multi-axis strategic missile attack utilizing hypersonic "Kinzhal" missiles from MiG-31K, multiple, successive waves of ballistic missiles (likely Iskanders) from ground launchers in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, strategic cruise missiles (Kh-101/555) from Tu-95MS, and heavy anti-ship missiles (Kh-22) from Tu-22M3. The focus on "second, third, fourth waves" on Kyiv highlights a clear intent to sustain overwhelming pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Precision Strike Capability: Demonstrated by the TASS video of UAV operators striking AFU dugouts, suggesting effective drone-guided munitions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Adaptive Information Warfare Integration: Russia's ability to synchronize these strategic strikes with active, real-time disinformation, psychological operations, and now direct threats (Rivne mockery, Volyn query) continues to be at an advanced level. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions:
  • Sustained Overwhelming Retaliation and Deterrence (Active Execution at Maximum Scale): The ongoing strategic strike, featuring "Kinzhal" and multiple ballistic waves, is intended to inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and urban centers, serving as severe retaliation for recent deep strikes and to deter further Ukrainian cross-border or deep-rear operations. The successive waves indicate intent to break AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Degrade Ukrainian Air Defense (Active Execution): The massed, multi-vector, and multi-wave attack is designed to exhaust, overwhelm, and deplete Ukrainian AD munition stockpiles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Psychological Demoralization and Panic (Active Execution): The explicit propaganda messaging accompanying the missile launches, now including direct threats (Rivne mockery, Volyn query), and the deepening dehumanization ("chubaty al-Qaeda," "UGIL") is aimed at inducing widespread fear and panic and undermining trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Courses of Action (COA):
  • MLCOA 1 (Confirmed & Actively Executing at Maximum Scale with Hypersonic/Ballistic Escalation): Immediate, Massive, Diversified Strategic Missile Attack Targeting Critical Infrastructure and Urban Centers, Coordinated with Ground Pressure and Deepening Deception Operations, now featuring hypersonic and ballistic missiles in successive waves. Russia is currently launching a mass-scale strategic missile assault, leveraging MiG-31K (Kinzhal), multiple, successive waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk, 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya (launched Kh-101/555), AND 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 (launched Kh-22s towards coastal areas). This follows initial saturation with Shaheds (confirmed impacts in Rivne, Sumy, Poltava) and active Kh-31P SEAD attempts. This attack is targeting Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi, now facing multiple waves), Kharkiv, Poltava, Chernihiv (explosions confirmed), Rivne (explosions confirmed), Dnipro, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Kremenchuk, and other key urban centers/infrastructure, with high probability of prioritizing energy and water infrastructure, military-industrial targets, and potentially coastal/port infrastructure. Concurrently, KAB strikes on Kharkiv will continue to support ground advances or create urban destruction, as evidenced by TASS video. On the ground, attritional assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk direction) will persist. Russian IO will intensify their "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough" narrative, reinforced by high-level political statements, and will continue tactical deception (e.g., "Chernihiv not needed," now direct questions about Volyn) while overtly promoting the scale of the incoming missile strike. Russian propaganda will also actively work to undermine Zelensky's legitimacy, fuel anti-NATO sentiment, spread highly damaging social disinformation, and attempt to distract with irrelevant Western political news (Greta Thunberg). The new dehumanizing rhetoric and direct threats will intensify. Russia will also attempt to control the cyber narrative and amplify claims of Ukrainian equipment losses (Abrams).
    • Confidence: HIGH (Confirmed continued ballistic missile launches in waves, ongoing Kinzhal threat, confirmed strategic bomber activity, with increased numbers, active Shahed/KAB activity and documented tactical successes, confirmed impacts across a widening AOR, escalating Dnipropetrovsk IO now with high-level political backing, new, specific social disinformation, and confirmed new wave of aerial assets indicated, are directly in line with this combined COA, now at maximum observed scale and destructive potential of air attack, with sustained multi-wave targeting).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Sustained Multi-Wave Ballistic Missile Attacks: The repeated launches of ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts in rapid succession against Chernihiv/Kyiv indicates a tactical adaptation to overwhelm AD with continuous pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Increased Focus on Western Oblasts: The specific query about Volyn, following threats to Rivne, indicates a potential expansion of targeting areas for psychological or disruptive effect. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).
• Heightened Internal Security Measures: Temporary airport closures in Russia (Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov, Tambov) suggest increased internal security measures, possibly due to Ukrainian deep strikes or to mask military air movements. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Active Cyber Counter-IO: TASS reports on "Kaspersky Lab" detecting hacker campaigns, and the CyberBoroshno message, highlight an active cyber domain and Russian attempts to manage the narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• Strategic Missile & UAV Supply: The sustained, multi-wave launches from MiG-31K, multiple ballistic missile batteries, and strategic bombers (even if Tu-95MS launches are currently paused) indicates Russia retains significant stockpiles of "Kinzhal," ballistic missiles (Iskander), strategic cruise missiles (Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-22/32), and UAVs for a prolonged, high-intensity aerial campaign. This suggests a higher inventory than previously assessed for high-value assets like Kinzhal and Iskander, or a willingness to deplete them rapidly. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Information Warfare Capacity: The rapid generation and dissemination of new, specific disinformation, distraction tactics, and direct threats, and the aggressive, pre-emptive psychological operations around the strategic strikes, indicate a highly agile and resourced IO apparatus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian C2: The synchronized multi-domain strikes (Shaheds, KABs, strategic cruise missiles from multiple platforms, hypersonic "Kinzhal," multiple, successive waves of ballistic missiles from multiple ground launchers) and rapid, coordinated IO campaigns demonstrating effective, centralized Russian C2. The immediate amplification of the Dnipropetrovsk narrative by TASS and high-level political figures, and the dissemination of specific social disinformation confirms high-level C2 over IO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian C2: Ukrainian authorities' rapid public warnings and AD responses continue to demonstrate effective C2 for public safety and military readiness, but are severely tested by the anticipated strategic strike of this magnitude, now including sustained hypersonic and ballistic threats across multiple waves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Air Defense: On HIGHEST alert, currently engaged against Shaheds and now responding to successive waves of ballistic missiles from Bryansk/Kursk, in addition to the ongoing threat from strategic cruise missiles and Kinzhals. While Tu-95MS launches are not currently fixed, the initial wave has occurred. All AD assets are likely at maximum readiness and dispersal protocols are critical, with systems now stretched across an even wider geographic area, including central and western Ukraine (Zhytomyr, Rivne/Dubno, Kremenchuk, potentially Volyn). The ballistic missile threat from the North (Bryansk/Kursk) and South (previous intelligence) requires specific, heightened AD preparedness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive integrity. The escalating Dnipropetrovsk IO, now validated by high-level Russian political figures, continues to create psychological pressure and potential for misdirection, demanding continued vigilance. Forces on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction are under sustained drone and artillery pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Information Defense: Actively monitoring and countering Russian disinformation, but the volume and increasing specificity of Russian claims (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk amplified by TASS and Klishas, "debt collector" narrative, "educating chubaty al-Qaeda"), direct threats (Rivne, Volyn query), and the overt psychological warfare accompanying the missile strikes require rapid, robust counter-narratives and verification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Ballistic Missile Interception: Nikolaev Vanok reports one ballistic missile successfully intercepted ("minus"). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR military reporter). This is a critical success against a high-speed threat.
  • Shahed Engagements: Ukrainian AD has successfully engaged a number of Shaheds (5 out of 11 initially heading for Dubno) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR military reporter).
  • Continued Deep Strikes into Russia: Confirmed drone attacks in Tambov and Voronezh Oblasts, and the fire in Gorno-Altaysk, demonstrate Ukraine's persistent capability to project power into Russian territory, forcing Russia to divert resources to internal defense. CyberBoroshno's threat to Cheboksary indicates continued offensive cyber capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setbacks:
  • Strategic Missile Penetration (Kyiv & Western Ukraine): Confirmed damage to an office building in Kyiv's Darnytskyi district and explosions in Chernihiv and Rivne indicate successful penetration of AD, a significant setback. The multi-wave attack on Kyiv is particularly concerning. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sustained Strategic Missile Threat (Active, Widespread, Hypersonic/Ballistic, Multi-Wave): The confirmed takeoff of 9 strategic bombers (5x Tu-95MS, 4x Tu-22M3, with Tu-22M3s having launched and returning, and Tu-95MS now launching Kh-101/555), PLUS active MiG-31K with "Kinzhal" and multiple, successive waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, represents a critical and immediate threat of widespread destruction and potential casualties. Confirmed impacts in Kyiv, Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv highlight this active threat. The speed and trajectory of "Kinzhal" and ballistic missiles severely reduce warning times. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sustained Aerial Attacks: Continuous Shahed and KAB attacks strain resources and pose a persistent threat. Explosions in Poltava, Kyiv Oblast, Chernihiv, and now confirmed Rivne, Sumy, and Poltava, indicate expanded AOR for strikes and successful Russian penetration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sophisticated Psychological Pressure (Escalated & Politically Backed, with Direct Threats & Mockery): The escalating and highly specific disinformation regarding a Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough (now amplified by TASS citing fake "The Times" and by high-level political figures), the overt pre-strike propaganda and post-strike mockery ("Rovno getting crooked," "Volyn?"), and the deepening dehumanization poses a significant risk of internal confusion, panic, or misallocation of resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Claims of Abrams Losses: Colonelcassad's claim of 26 Abrams tanks destroyed/captured, if verified, would represent a significant setback for Ukrainian armored capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense Munitions: The incoming large-scale strategic missile attack from multiple platforms, including hypersonic and ballistic missiles in successive waves, will place unprecedented, critical strain on AD munition stockpiles, particularly for systems capable of intercepting advanced threats. URGENT international resupply remains paramount, as this attack will deplete significant inventories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• ISR for Disinformation Verification: Increased ISR is critical to rapidly and definitively verify or refute Russian ground claims, especially for the Dnipropetrovsk axis, and to counter new social disinformation, to prevent costly redeployments or panic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Information Warfare Capabilities: Enhanced capabilities for proactive counter-disinformation and psychological resilience programs are required to mitigate the impact of the increasingly sophisticated and overt Russian IO, particularly with political backing, specific, damaging social narratives, distraction tactics, and direct threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Propaganda - Offensive and Psychological Warfare (Escalated, Active, and Politically Backed, with Direct Threats and Mockery):
  • "Massive Strike" Promotion & Dehumanization (Active & Sustained): Russian milbloggers are overtly advertising the incoming strike, now claiming "second, third, fourth waves" on Kyiv as "educational measures," and using dehumanizing language ("iTarasys don't understand"), aiming to maximize pre-impact terror and demoralization while justifying the attacks. They are confirming "Kinzhal" and Iskander strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Amplification (Active & Politically Backed): TASS citing a (likely fabricated) "The Times" article to support the Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough narrative, directly supported by high-level political figures, remains active. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tactical Deception/Mopckery (Active & Adaptive): The "Rovno is getting more and more crooked" and "What about Volyn?" statements, following previous "Rivne/Chernihiv not needed," are clear attempts to misdirect Ukrainian AD or create false security while mocking successful strikes. "All drones shot down/suppressed" is clear overblown propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Claims of Ukrainian Equipment Losses: Colonelcassad's claim of 26 Abrams destroyed/captured is aimed at demoralizing Ukraine and reducing Western support. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Distraction Propaganda (Active): TASS reporting on the Greta Thunberg incident is a transparent attempt to distract from the ongoing conflict and to sow discord within the Western political sphere. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cyber Counter-IO (Active): TASS report on "Kaspersky Lab" identifying hacker campaigns is an immediate adaptation to counter perceived Ukrainian cyber successes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Information Operations - Transparency and Counter-Disinformation:
  • Timely Threat Warnings: Consistent and prompt warnings from Ukrainian authorities (e.g., KCMVA, Air Force, local officials) regarding air threats maintain public trust and facilitate preparedness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Direct Refutation of Disinformation (Ongoing Requirement): Continued, aggressive refutation of Russian claims, especially the Dnipropetrovsk narrative (now with the added TASS/Klishas angle), the "debt collector" narrative, the dehumanizing rhetoric, and direct threats/mockery, is vital. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Russian Internal Issues: Reporting on internal drone attacks in Russia (Tambov, Voronezh) and internal incidents like the Gorno-Altaysk fire can be leveraged to counter Russian narratives of stability and control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH). CyberBoroshno's claim on Cheboksary, if successful, could be used.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Negative Impact (UKR - SIGNIFICANTLY Escalated): The immediate threat of a major strategic missile attack from an unprecedented number of platforms, including hypersonic and ballistic missiles in successive waves, confirmed impacts in Kyiv, Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, continued drone/KAB strikes, and the aggressively amplified Dnipropetrovsk disinformation campaign (now with high-level political backing and new, insidious social disinformation and direct threats/mockery) will significantly heighten anxiety and psychological stress. The overt Russian pre-strike propaganda and dehumanizing rhetoric will amplify this. The "debt collector" narrative specifically targets internal cohesion and trust. Claims of Abrams losses will undermine confidence. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Positive Impact (UKR): Timely warnings and effective AD responses (e.g., ballistic missile interception, Shahed shootdowns), where successful, help to maintain a sense of resilience and trust. Continued Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia provide a morale boost and demonstrate Ukraine's retaliatory capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Impact (RU): Russian propaganda aims to bolster domestic morale by justifying their actions, claiming battlefield successes (Dnipropetrovsk), highlighting perceived Western division, and demonstrating perceived overwhelming force. News of internal drone attacks and fires may cause some internal concern, which Russian state media attempts to offset with distraction propaganda and now counter-IO on cyberattacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• The severity and scale of the incoming missile strike (MiG-31K, multiple, successive ballistic launches, 9 strategic bombers active, confirmed impacts across multiple oblasts) may galvanize further international support or increase pressure on Western partners to expedite aid, particularly AD munitions, beyond previous commitments. This level of attack is a clear demonstration of Russian intent to escalate and disregard for civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian attempts to sow discord by citing "Western" sources or manipulate narratives (e.g., POW bodies in Italy, "Senator-Trumpist" quotes, "debt collectors," Trump/Rubio stumbling, Greta Thunberg) indicates an intent to erode international solidarity and influence Western political landscapes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• MLCOA 1: IMMEDIATE, MAX-SCALE, AND DIVERSIFIED STRATEGIC MISSILE ATTACK FEATURING HYPERSONIC AND BALLISTIC MISSILES IN SUSTAINED WAVES, TARGETING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND URBAN CENTERS, COORDINATED WITH GROUND PRESSURE AND EXPLICIT DECEPTION OPERATIONS (ONGOING). Russia is currently executing a large-scale strategic missile assault, leveraging MiG-31K (Kinzhal), multiple, successive waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk (targeting Kyiv/Chernihiv), and 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya (launched Kh-101/555) and 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 (launched Kh-22s towards coastal areas). This follows initial saturation with Shaheds (confirmed impacts in Rivne, Sumy, Poltava) and active Kh-31P SEAD attempts. This attack is targeting Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi, now facing multiple waves), Kharkiv, Poltava, Chernihiv (explosions confirmed), Rivne (explosions confirmed), Dnipro, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Kremenchuk, and other major urban centers/infrastructure, with a high probability of prioritizing energy and water infrastructure, military-industrial targets, and potentially coastal/port infrastructure. Concurrently, KAB strikes on Kharkiv will continue to support ground advances or create urban destruction, as evidenced by TASS footage. On the ground, Russian forces will maintain intense attritional pressure on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk), employing advanced drone tactics against Ukrainian artillery. The information campaign will aggressively amplify the fabricated "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough," now using the false credibility of (fabricated) Western media citations and direct political backing from high-level Russian officials. Concurrently, Russia will continue tactical deception (e.g., "Chernihiv not needed," new queries on Volyn, false claims of drone suppression) and overt mockery to compel Ukrainian redeployments and induce panic across the civilian population and military. New propaganda efforts will specifically target Western support by portraying Zelensky as a "dictator" luring NATO into war, and will spread new, damaging social disinformation while attempting to distract with irrelevant Western political news (Greta Thunberg, Trump/Rubio). The new dehumanizing rhetoric and direct threats to specific cities (Rivne mockery, Volyn query) will intensify. Russia will also actively attempt to control the cyber narrative and amplify claims of Ukrainian equipment losses (Abrams).
  • Confidence: HIGH (Confirmed ongoing ballistic missile launches in successive waves, ongoing Kinzhal threat, confirmed strategic bomber activity, with increased numbers (total 9), ongoing Shahed/KAB activity and documented tactical successes, confirmed direct impacts across a widening AOR, escalating, explicit Russian IO directly supported by high-level political figures, the introduction of new, highly specific social disinformation, direct threats, and distraction tactics, and a new wave of aerial assets indicated. This is the most intense observed air attack threat in many months, now actively unfolding in sustained waves.)
  • Indicators: Widespread and prolonged air alarms; multiple missile launches reported from various platforms (air, ground); severe impacts in Ukrainian cities across multiple oblasts, particularly on infrastructure; further Russian milblogger reports on "advances" or "awards" in Dnipropetrovsk; continued claims of POW captures or Russian "successes" on the ground (e.g., specific BDA on claimed military targets in Kharkiv); increased social media rumors and panic related to new disinformation narratives.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• MDCOA 1: STRATEGIC DECAPITATION AND OPERATIONAL BREAKTHROUGH ENABLED BY EW OVERMATCH AND REAL-TIME IO. Russia conducts an unprecedented, multi-day, multi-wave strategic missile and drone assault from all available long-range aviation platforms (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160) and ground-launched ballistic missiles, including sustained use of "Kinzhal" and other hypersonic/ballistic assets, designed to systematically target and degrade Ukrainian C2 nodes (military and government), critical energy infrastructure, and key logistics hubs, aiming for functional decapitation or severe disruption. This mass strike would be coordinated with a surprise, rapid, and large-scale ground offensive on the Dnipropetrovsk axis, leveraging a significant operational-level force (e.g., multiple divisions, including the 90th Tank Division) from a previously static or lower-priority sector. This ground push would be supported by intense, broad-spectrum electronic warfare (EW) to blind Ukrainian ISR, disrupt military communications at all levels, and jam civilian networks, combined with a real-time, devastating psychological operations campaign (e.g., "Kyiv has fallen," "command has fled") to induce mass civilian panic and military collapse, attempting to force a major, uncoordinated Ukrainian retreat.
  • Confidence: MEDIUM (The current escalating IO around Dnipropetrovsk and the confirmed strategic bomber activity now including Kinzhal and multiple ballistic waves directly feed into elements of this MDCOA. The addition of these advanced missile types and the increased number of bombers overall significantly increases the destructive potential. The uncertainty lies in Russia's true capability for such a massive, integrated ground force breakthrough, particularly under a broad EW umbrella, and their willingness to commit such resources after AD suppression, and their ability to maintain such an intense air campaign for multiple days.)
  • Indicators: Sustained multi-day, high-intensity missile/drone attacks; direct targeting of top-tier Ukrainian C2 nodes; simultaneous, rapid, deep penetrations by multiple Russian BTGs/regiments/brigades into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; widespread and persistent communications outages affecting Ukrainian military and civilian networks; explicit Russian demands for surrender/negotiation from a position of perceived strength; mass internal displacement within Ukraine.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Next 0-3 Hours (IMMEDIATE - CRITICAL IMPACT WINDOW):

  • Strategic Missile Strikes: Impact of missiles launched by MiG-31K (Kinzhal), multiple, successive waves of ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Kursk, and previous launches by 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya and 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 is IMMINENT/ONGOING. Targeting will likely include Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi, now facing multiple waves), Kharkiv, Poltava, Chernihiv (explosions), Rivne (explosions, Dubno under Shahed attack), Dnipro, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk and other major urban centers/critical infrastructure. Specific focus on energy infrastructure and coastal/port targets is highly probable, with active SEAD against coastal AD.
  • Shahed/KAB Threat: Continuation of intense Shahed activity over Kyiv, Rivne (Dubno), and central Ukraine, with persistent KAB strikes on Kharkiv and other ground targets. Impacts in Rivne, Sumy, and Poltava confirm the active threat. Russia will continue to attempt to deceive regarding the end of drone waves.
  • Information Environment: Expect rapid acceleration of Russian propaganda (Dnipropetrovsk narrative now citing "The Times" and high-level political figures, "ammo supply" mockery, tactical deception like "Rivne not needed," "Chernihiv not needed," "drones ending soon," new dehumanizing rhetoric, Trump/Rubio/Greta Thunberg distraction, direct threats to cities, and mocking references to Ukrainian AD) concurrent with or immediately following missile impacts, emphasizing the "success" and "retaliation." New anti-Zelensky/anti-NATO propaganda and highly damaging social disinformation will spread. Russia will also try to control the cyber narrative and amplify claims of Ukrainian equipment losses (Abrams).
  • Ground Activity: Continued attritional assaults on Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk), supported by KABs and drone strikes. High potential for a test or reconnaissance-in-force on the Dnipropetrovsk axis to gauge Ukrainian response to the escalating IO, even if a full breakthrough is not imminent.
  • Decision Points (UKR):
    • IMMEDIATE (ongoing): All AD assets to maximum readiness and dispersal protocols for incoming strategic missile strike from multiple platforms (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, MiG-31K, ballistic missile launchers). Prioritize protection of C2 nodes, critical energy infrastructure, and major urban centers, with specific attention to SEAD attempts against AD systems. This is the most critical immediate task, requiring focus on the highest-speed threats and multi-wave engagements.
    • IMMEDIATE: Rapid and aggressive counter-IO on the "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough" narrative, particularly the fabricated "The Times" citations and the high-level political statements, the "ammo supply" claims, the "drones ending soon" deception, the new "debt collector" narrative, the dehumanizing rhetoric, and direct threats/mockery (Rivne/Volyn). Issue official statements debunking false claims and providing accurate information. Task ISR for immediate verification or denial of Russian force presence in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast beyond the current line of contact. Prepare contingency plans for a potential actual ground push on this axis, even if small-scale.
    • URGENT: Disseminate counter-PSYOPS messages to address the disinformation regarding POW bodies and other psychological intimidation tactics, and critically, the overt Russian propaganda regarding the incoming strike, tactical deception, anti-Zelensky/anti-NATO narratives, the new social disinformation aimed at internal divisions, and the new distraction propaganda. Reinforce national resilience and preparedness.
    • URGENT: Reinforce communication channels and protocols to ensure resilience against potential EW or network saturation during mass attacks.
    • URGENT: Prioritize SIGINT/ELINT on Russian strategic aviation and EW systems to detect further missile launches or shifts in attack vectors. Maintain high vigilance on ground axes for any signs of massing reserves consistent with MDCOA, particularly on the Dnipropetrovsk axis.

• Next 3-24 Hours (Short Term):

  • Post-Strike Assessment: Evaluate damage, casualties, and impact on critical infrastructure from the strategic missile strike.
  • Russian Reaction: Monitor for immediate Russian claims of "successful strikes" or "retaliation" across multiple channels. Expect further political statements reinforcing the "denazification" narrative and other IO.
  • Ukrainian Recovery/Response: Initiate rapid recovery efforts. Continue active defense on all ground axes.
  • Intelligence Gap: Full BDA on the impact of the strategic missile strike. Confirmation of the Dnipropetrovsk ground situation. Russian next steps if initial strategic strike results in less than desired effects.

• Next 24-72 Hours (Medium Term):

  • Sustained Pressure: Russia will likely sustain aerial pressure (Shaheds, KABs) to hinder recovery efforts and maintain psychological pressure, potentially in further waves if initial effects are deemed insufficient.
  • Ground Offensive: Russian ground offensive on Donetsk and possibly Sumy axis will continue. The intensity of any push on Dnipropetrovsk will clarify if the IO was solely a feint or a precursor.
  • Information Warfare: Continued Russian efforts to exploit any perceived Ukrainian weaknesses or Western divisions.

• Intelligence Gaps:

  • Full BDA on Strategic Missile Strike: Precise number, type, and impact locations of all missiles launched by MiG-31K, ballistic launchers, Tu-95MS, and Tu-22M3, and their impact on Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, water, military-industrial targets). (HIGHEST PRIORITY)
  • Veracity of Dnipropetrovsk Claim: Definitive GEOINT/IMINT/HUMINT on Russian force composition, disposition, and actual advances (if any) in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Identification and verification of "Colonel Yevgeny Daraev" and the "tank regiment" (if real or fabricated). (HIGHEST PRIORITY)
  • Ukrainian AD Munition Levels: Updated assessment of critical interceptor munition inventories post-mass missile attack, especially for high-value ballistic/hypersonic interceptors. (HIGH PRIORITY)
  • Russian "200 Shaheds" Claim & New Wave Indication: Verify the claimed scale of the Shahed attack (over 200) and the scale/nature of the newly indicated wave of "reparations." (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Impact of Russian Anti-Radiation Missile Strikes: Assessment of damage/suppression to Ukrainian AD radars from Kh-31P launches. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Impact of Ukrainian Deep Strikes within Russia: BDA on the Gorno-Altaysk fire and the drone attacks in Tambov and Voronezh Oblasts, and any impact of the Kaspersky cyberattack or potential Cheboksary attack. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Verification of Abrams Losses: Independent verification of Colonelcassad's claim regarding 26 Abrams tanks destroyed/captured. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)

• Collection Requirements:

  • SIGINT/ELINT: Continuous monitoring of Russian strategic aviation communications and flight paths from all airbases (Engels-2, Olenya, Soltsy, Shaikovka), particularly for launch confirmations from Tu-95MS and MiG-31K. Monitor ballistic missile launch signatures. Identification of EW efforts synchronized with ground or air attacks, especially on Dnipropetrovsk axis and Black Sea coastal areas. Monitoring of Russian C2 networks for signs of operational-level ground movements.
  • GEOINT/IMINT: High-resolution satellite imagery over all claimed Russian advances, particularly Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to detect force concentrations or actual penetration. Rapid assessment of critical infrastructure damage in Ukraine and within Russia from Ukrainian deep strikes. Imagery of ballistic missile launch sites in Bryansk/Kursk Oblasts.
  • HUMINT: From frontline units for accurate reporting on Russian ground tactics, morale, and any unusual force dispositions. From affected civilian areas for accurate BDA and impact assessment. From occupied areas, if possible, to verify Russian claims and morale and the impact of social disinformation.
  • OSINT: Persistent monitoring of Russian milblogger and state media channels for new narratives, claims, and shifts in propaganda themes, particularly the explicit "mass strike" promotion (multi-wave claims), the Dnipropetrovsk narrative (now with TASS/Klishas amplification), tactical deception attempts (e.g., "drones ending soon," "Chernihiv not needed," "Rovno getting crooked," "Volyn?"), the new social disinformation, and any new distraction tactics (e.g., Trump/Rubio, Greta Thunberg, Kaspersky cyber claims). Analysis of public sentiment within Ukraine, particularly regarding the Dnipropetrovsk narrative and large-scale strikes.

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END REPORT