Situation Report

OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 09 JUN 25 / 00:19 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 08 JUN 25 / 23:49 ZULU - 09 JUN 25 / 00:19 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

• AOR Update: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast, Russian Federation border regions (Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod, Tambov, Voronezh), and the Donetsk axis remain active. Chernihiv Oblast and Rivne Oblast are under direct aerial attack. Odesa Oblast and Black Sea region under active missile threat. New emphasis on Zhytomyr Oblast, Kremenchu/Svetlovodsk axis.
• New Developments (UKR):
  • MiG-31K in Air: Mykolaiv Vanok reports MiG-31K in the air, confirming launch platform for "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR military reporter, confirmed by official UKR sources).
  • "Kinzhal" Threat (Kyiv): KCMVA confirms threat of "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missile application for Kyiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source).
  • Ballistic Launches from Bryansk: Mykolaiv Vanok reports multiple ballistic missile launches from Bryansk, first wave initially on Kyiv, then second wave towards Chernihiv/Kyiv, third wave towards Chernihiv/Kyiv/Nizhyn/Boryspil, fourth wave towards Chernihiv/Kyiv, and a fifth wave towards Chernihiv/Kyiv from Bryansk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR military reporter, consistent reporting, corroborated by Russian sources).
  • "Kinzhal" Trajectory (Zvyagel/Rivne/Dubno): Mykolaiv Vanok reports "Kinzhal" on course for Zvyagel/Rivne/Dubno, later confirming it passed Zvyagel en route to Dubno. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR military reporter, consistent reporting).
  • Missile Trajectory (Kyiv/Zhytomyr): Air Force of Ukraine confirms missile in Kyiv Oblast on course for Zhytomyr Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source).
  • Explosions in Chernihiv: RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Chernihiv Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR open source).
  • Two Missiles North Chernihiv: Air Force of Ukraine reports 2 missiles in northern Chernihiv Oblast, southern course. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR official source).
  • Explosions in Rivne: RBK-Ukraina reports explosions in Rivne. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR open source, corroborates previous "Kinzhal" trajectory).
  • Ballistic Launch from Kursk: Mykolaiv Vanok reports ballistic missile launch from Kursk Governorate. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR military reporter).
  • Ballistic Trajectory (Hadyach/Lubny): Mykolaiv Vanok reports missile flying on course for Hadyach/Lubny (Poltava Oblast). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR military reporter).
  • Ballistic Trajectory (Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk): Mykolaiv Vanok and Air Force of Ukraine confirm ballistic missile on Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - UKR military reporter and official source).
• New Developments (RU):
  • "Kinzhal" Launch Confirmation/Propaganda: "НгП раZVедка" (Russian milblogger) reports "Kinzhal" missiles flying towards "UGIL" (derogatory term for Ukraine) and later specifically claims "massive Iskander and Kinzhal strikes on Kyiv." This confirms Kinzhal usage and intention for massive impact. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, corroborates UKR reporting).
  • Iskander Launch Confirmation/Propaganda: "НгП раZVедка" confirms "massive Iskander launch from Bryansk Oblast", again with dehumanizing rhetoric. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, corroborates UKR reporting).
  • "Chernihiv not needed" Deception: "НгП раZVедка" continues with tactical deception regarding Chernihiv, similar to earlier "Rivne not needed." (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, clear deception attempt).
  • General Strike Confirmation/Propaganda: Colonelcassad reports "multiple missile impacts in Ukraine, including Kinzhals," adding that "Geran" (Shahed) attacks continue, confirming widespread, multi-modal strike. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, corroborates UKR reporting).
  • "Rivne will get it" Threat: "НгП раZVедка" directly threatens "Rivne will get it" in 01:19 local time, indicating a specific, targeted threat for a confirmed impact location. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, direct threat).
  • Russian Mobile Air Observation Post: Colonelcassad provides photo message of a "Mobile air observation post of the Russian Armed Forces based on the thermal imaging aiming complex 'KRECHET'" and analysis of its capabilities. This indicates Russian efforts to improve ground-based air defense and reconnaissance against low-flying targets, including UAVs. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian milblogger, photographic evidence with analysis).
  • "Kaspersky Lab" Cyber Campaign Report: TASS reports "Kaspersky Lab" detected a hacker campaign at night. This is likely an attempt to attribute ongoing cyberattacks against Russia (e.g., HUR railway disruption) to Ukraine or other actors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Russian state media, likely counter-IO).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

• Conducive to All Aerial Operations: The confirmed ongoing launches of "Kinzhal" and ballistic missiles, in addition to strategic cruise missiles and UAVs, indicates continued clear weather conditions favoring all aerial operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

• Ukrainian Forces (Air Defense): At MAXIMUM readiness, actively engaging MiG-31K-launched "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles and multiple waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders from Bryansk/Kursk), in addition to ongoing strategic cruise missiles (Kh-101/555) and Shaheds. AD assets are severely strained across a widening multi-axis engagement, now including fast-moving hypersonic and ballistic threats over Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, and Kremenchu/Svetlovodsk regions. The confirmed damage in Kyiv and explosions in Chernihiv and Rivne indicate continued penetration despite AD efforts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Forces (Ground): Maintaining defensive postures. Continued pressure on the Donetsk axis remains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Air): Confirmed launch of MiG-31K with "Kinzhal" and multiple waves of ballistic missiles (likely Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, in addition to previously confirmed Kh-101/555 launches from 5x Tu-95MS and Kh-22s from 4x Tu-22M3. This confirms an unprecedented, multi-platform, multi-axis, and multi-modal strategic missile attack, including hypersonic and ballistic assets, at its highest observed intensity. Shaheds are already impacting multiple oblasts, and missile impacts are confirmed in Kyiv, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, and Rivne Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian Forces (Information Operations): Highly aggressive and adaptive, explicitly promoting the incoming strike, using fabricated "quotes" from Western media to amplify the Dnipropetrovsk narrative, actively employing misdirection (e.g., "Rivne not needed," now "Chernihiv not needed"), spreading high-level disinformation about Ukrainian debt collectors, actively attempting to distract with irrelevant Western political news (Trump/Rubio), and now directly threatening specific cities (Rivne). The "educating the chubaty al-Qaeda" narrative and "UGIL" term indicates deepening dehumanization and justification for mass strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

• Capabilities:
  • Full-Spectrum Strategic Air Strike Capability (Confirmed & Active at Maximum Scale): Russia is currently demonstrating its capability to conduct a massive, multi-platform, multi-axis strategic missile attack utilizing hypersonic "Kinzhal" missiles from MiG-31K, multiple waves of ballistic missiles (likely Iskanders) from ground launchers in Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, strategic cruise missiles (Kh-101/555) from Tu-95MS, and heavy anti-ship missiles (Kh-22) from Tu-22M3. This represents an overwhelming commitment of their most advanced and destructive long-range strike assets. Impacts are confirmed in Kyiv, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, and Rivne, with trajectories indicating intent for Zhytomyr, Kremenchuk, and Poltava Oblasts. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Adaptive Information Warfare Integration: Russia's ability to synchronize these strategic strikes with active, real-time disinformation, psychological operations, and now direct threats (Rivne) is at an advanced level. The attribution of night-time hacker campaigns to Ukraine via TASS/Kaspersky is a reactive IO adaptation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Persistent Air Defense Penetration: Demonstrated by confirmed damage in Kyiv's Darnytskyi district and explosions in Chernihiv and Rivne, indicating continued capability to penetrate layered AD, likely due to saturation, speed, and diverse attack vectors. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Intentions:
  • Overwhelming Retaliation and Deterrence (Active Execution at Maximum Scale): The ongoing strategic strike, now including "Kinzhal" and multiple ballistic waves, is intended to inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and urban centers, serving as severe retaliation for recent deep strikes and to deter further Ukrainian cross-border or deep-rear operations. The use of "Kinzhal" and multiple ballistic waves indicates a heightened punitive intent. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Degrade Ukrainian Air Defense (Active Execution): The massed, multi-vector attack from Shaheds, KABs, high volume of strategic cruise missiles, and now hypersonic "Kinzhal" and multiple ballistic missiles is designed to exhaust, overwhelm, and deplete Ukrainian AD munition stockpiles, particularly for high-value targets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Psychological Demoralization and Panic (Active Execution): The explicit propaganda messaging accompanying the missile launches, now including direct threats (Rivne), and the deepening dehumanization ("chubaty al-Qaeda," "UGIL") is aimed at inducing widespread fear and panic and undermining trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Courses of Action (COA):
  • MLCOA 1 (Confirmed & Actively Executing at Maximum Scale with Hypersonic/Ballistic Escalation): Immediate, Massive, Diversified Strategic Missile Attack Targeting Critical Infrastructure and Urban Centers, Coordinated with Ground Pressure and Deepening Deception Operations, now featuring hypersonic and ballistic missiles. Russia is currently launching a mass-scale strategic missile assault, leveraging MiG-31K (Kinzhal), ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk, 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya (launching Kh-101/555), AND 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 (having launched Kh-22s towards coastal areas and now returning). This follows initial saturation with Shaheds (confirmed impacts in Rivne, Sumy, Poltava) and active Kh-31P SEAD attempts. This attack is targeting Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi), Kharkiv, Poltava, Chernihiv (explosions confirmed), Rivne (explosions confirmed), Dnipro, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Kremenchuk, and other key urban centers/infrastructure, with high probability of prioritizing energy and water infrastructure, military-industrial targets, and potentially coastal/port infrastructure. Concurrently, KAB strikes on Kharkiv will continue to support ground advances or create urban destruction. On the ground, attritional assaults on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk direction) will persist. Russian IO will intensify their "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough" narrative, reinforced by high-level political statements, and will continue tactical deception ("Rivne not needed," "Chernihiv not needed," "drones ending soon") while overtly promoting the scale of the incoming missile strike. Russian propaganda will also actively work to undermine Zelensky's legitimacy, fuel anti-NATO sentiment, spread highly damaging social disinformation (Ukrainian debt collectors), and attempt to distract with irrelevant Western news (Trump/Rubio). The new dehumanizing rhetoric ("chubaty al-Qaeda," "UGIL") will intensify, now with direct threats. Russia will also attempt to control the cyber narrative by attributing attacks to Ukraine.
    • Confidence: HIGH (Confirmed MiG-31K launch with Kinzhal, multiple ballistic missile launches from Bryansk/Kursk, confirmed strategic bomber launches from two platforms, with increased numbers, active Shahed/KAB activity, confirmed impacts across a widening AOR (Kyiv, Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv), active SEAD attempts, escalating Dnipropetrovsk IO now with high-level political backing, new, specific social disinformation, and confirmed new wave of aerial assets indicated, are directly in line with this combined COA, now at maximum observed scale and destructive potential of air attack).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

• Integration of Hypersonic and Ballistic Missiles into Mass Strike (Active & Escalatory): The confirmed use of MiG-31K-launched "Kinzhal" and multiple waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) as part of this large-scale, multi-platform, multi-modal strike is a significant and dangerous escalation, demonstrating Russia's intent to overwhelm AD with speed and diversity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Increased Ballistic Missile Launch Cadence: Multiple, rapid launches of ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts in successive waves indicate a tactical adaptation to sustain pressure and overwhelm AD. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Explicit, Direct Threats in IO: The direct threat that "Rivne will get it" by a prominent Russian milblogger is a tactical adaptation to directly intimidate and demoralize a specific city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Proactive Cyber Counter-IO: The TASS report on "Kaspersky Lab" detecting hacker campaigns is an immediate adaptation to counter perceived Ukrainian cyber successes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Deployment of Mobile Air Observation Posts: The revealed "KRECHET" mobile observation post suggests an adaptation to improve low-altitude air defense and reconnaissance against UAVs, a direct response to Ukrainian deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

• Strategic Missile & UAV Supply: The confirmed launches from MiG-31K, multiple ballistic missile batteries, and 9 strategic bombers, in addition to ongoing Shahed/KAB activity, indicates Russia retains significant stockpiles of "Kinzhal," ballistic missiles (Iskander), strategic cruise missiles (Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-22/32), and UAVs for a prolonged, high-intensity aerial campaign. This suggests a higher inventory than previously assessed for high-value assets like Kinzhal and Iskander. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Information Warfare Capacity: The rapid generation and dissemination of new, specific disinformation, distraction tactics, and direct threats, and the aggressive, pre-emptive psychological operations around the strategic strikes, indicate a highly agile and resourced IO apparatus. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

• Russian C2: The synchronized multi-domain strikes (Shaheds, KABs, strategic cruise missiles from multiple platforms, hypersonic "Kinzhal," multiple waves of ballistic missiles from multiple ground launchers, confirmed impacts in Kyiv, Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, active SEAD) and rapid, coordinated IO campaigns demonstrating effective, centralized Russian C2. The immediate amplification of the Dnipropetrovsk narrative by TASS and high-level political figures, and the dissemination of specific social disinformation (debt collectors, Trump/Rubio) confirms high-level C2 over IO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian C2: Ukrainian authorities' rapid public warnings and AD responses continue to demonstrate effective C2 for public safety and military readiness, but are severely tested by the anticipated strategic strike of this magnitude, now including hypersonic and ballistic threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

• Air Defense: On HIGHEST alert, currently engaged against Shaheds and now responding to missile impacts in Kyiv (Darnytskyi district confirmed damage) and launches from Tu-95MS, MiG-31K (Kinzhal), and multiple waves of ballistic missiles (Iskanders). Despite Tu-22M3s returning, 5 Tu-95MS are confirmed launching, and multiple ballistic and Kinzhal threats are active, indicating an imminent, severe next wave of strategic missile launches. All AD assets are likely at maximum readiness and dispersal protocols are critical, with systems now stretched across an even wider geographic area, including central and western Ukraine (Zhytomyr, Rivne, Kremenchuk). The ballistic missile threat from the North (Bryansk/Kursk) and South (previous intelligence) requires specific, heightened AD preparedness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ground Forces: Maintaining defensive integrity. The escalating Dnipropetrovsk IO, now validated by high-level Russian political figures, continues to create psychological pressure and potential for misdirection, demanding continued vigilance. Forces on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction are under sustained drone and artillery pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Information Defense: Actively monitoring and countering Russian disinformation, but the volume and increasing specificity of Russian claims (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk amplified by TASS and Klishas, "debt collector" narrative, "educating chubaty al-Qaeda"), direct threats (Rivne), and the overt psychological warfare accompanying the missile strikes require rapid, robust counter-narratives and verification. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

• Successes:
  • Kh-31P Interception: The successful neutralization of a Kh-31P anti-radiation missile targeting Chernomorsk is a critical success, preserving AD radar capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Initial AD Engagements: Ukrainian AD actively engaged incoming Shaheds and other aerial targets, preventing more widespread damage in initial waves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Continued Deep Strikes into Russia: Confirmed drone attacks in Tambov and Voronezh Oblasts demonstrate Ukraine's persistent capability to project power into Russian territory, forcing Russia to divert resources to internal defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Setbacks:
  • Strategic Missile Penetration (Kyiv): Confirmed damage to an office building in Kyiv's Darnytskyi district indicates a successful penetration of the capital's AD, a significant setback. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Escalating Strategic Missile Threat (Active, Widespread, Hypersonic/Ballistic): The confirmed takeoff of 9 strategic bombers (5x Tu-95MS, 4x Tu-22M3, with Tu-22M3s having launched and returning, and Tu-95MS now launching Kh-101/555), PLUS active MiG-31K with "Kinzhal" and multiple waves of ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk Oblasts, represents a critical and immediate threat of widespread destruction and potential casualties. Confirmed impacts in Kyiv, Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv highlight this active threat. The additional ballistic missile threat from the South (previous intel) increases complexity. The speed and trajectory of "Kinzhal" and ballistic missiles severely reduce warning times. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sustained Aerial Attacks: Continuous Shahed and KAB attacks strain resources and pose a persistent threat. Explosions in Poltava, Kyiv Oblast, Chernihiv, and now confirmed Rivne, Sumy, and Poltava, indicate expanded AOR for strikes and successful Russian penetration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Sophisticated Psychological Pressure (Escalated & Politically Backed, with Direct Threats): The escalating and highly specific disinformation regarding a Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough (now amplified by TASS citing fake "The Times" and by high-level political figures like Klishas), the overt pre-strike propaganda ("ammo supply," "Zelensky a dictator," "drones ending soon," "debt collectors," "UGIL," "chubaty al-Qaeda"), and now direct threats to cities (Rivne) poses a significant risk of internal confusion, panic, or misallocation of resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

• Air Defense Munitions: The incoming large-scale strategic missile attack from multiple platforms, including hypersonic and ballistic missiles, and confirmed ballistic missile threat will place unprecedented, critical strain on AD munition stockpiles, particularly for systems capable of intercepting advanced threats. URGENT international resupply remains paramount, as this attack will deplete significant inventories. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• ISR for Disinformation Verification: Increased ISR is critical to rapidly and definitively verify or refute Russian ground claims, especially for the Dnipropetrovsk axis, and to counter new social disinformation, to prevent costly redeployments or panic. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Information Warfare Capabilities: Enhanced capabilities for proactive counter-disinformation and psychological resilience programs are required to mitigate the impact of the increasingly sophisticated and overt Russian IO, particularly with political backing, specific, damaging social narratives, distraction tactics, and direct threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

• Russian Propaganda - Offensive and Psychological Warfare (Escalated, Active, and Politically Backed, with Direct Threats):
  • "Massive Strike" Promotion & Dehumanization (Active): Russian milbloggers are overtly advertising the incoming strike, now claiming "another hundred reparations" and using dehumanizing language ("chubaty al-Qaeda," "UGIL"), aiming to maximize pre-impact terror and demoralization while justifying the attacks. They are confirming "Kinzhal" and Iskander strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Amplification (Active & Politically Backed): TASS citing a (likely fabricated) "The Times" article to support the Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough narrative, directly supported by high-level political figures (Klishas), is a significant escalation aimed at internal and external credibility. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Tactical Deception (Active & Proven False): The "Vinnitsa/Rovno not needed," and now "Chernihiv not needed" statements and "drones ending soon" messages are clear attempts to misdirect Ukrainian AD or create false security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Anti-Zelensky/NATO Disinformation (Active): The "Senator-Trumpist" quote aims to portray Zelensky as a "dictator" luring NATO into war. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Social Disinformation (Active): The TASS report claiming "Ukrainian debt collectors are requesting information on mobilized Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel from Russia" is an insidious attempt to erode trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Distraction Propaganda (Active): The TASS reporting on "Trump and Rubio stumbling" is a transparent attempt to distract from the ongoing conflict and to sow discord within the Western political sphere. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Direct Threats to Cities (New): "НгП раZVедка" explicitly stating "Rivne will get it" is a direct, pre-emptive threat to a specific city. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Cyber Counter-IO (New): TASS report on "Kaspersky Lab" identifying hacker campaigns is a likely attempt to control the narrative around cyber operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Ukrainian Information Operations - Transparency and Counter-Disinformation:
  • Timely Threat Warnings: Consistent and prompt warnings from Ukrainian authorities (e.g., KCMVA, Air Force, local officials) regarding air threats maintain public trust and facilitate preparedness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Direct Refutation of Disinformation (Ongoing Requirement): Continued, aggressive refutation of Russian claims, especially the Dnipropetrovsk narrative (now with the added TASS/Klishas angle), the "debt collector" narrative, the dehumanizing rhetoric, and direct threats, is vital. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
  • Showcasing Russian Internal Issues: Reporting on internal drone attacks in Russia (Tambov, Voronezh) and internal incidents like the Gorno-Altaysk fire can be leveraged to counter Russian narratives of stability and control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

• Negative Impact (UKR - SIGNIFICANTLY Escalated): The immediate threat of a major strategic missile attack from an unprecedented number of platforms, including hypersonic and ballistic missiles, confirmed impacts in Kyiv, Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, continued drone/KAB strikes, and the aggressively amplified Dnipropetrovsk disinformation campaign (now with high-level political backing and new, insidious social disinformation and direct threats) will significantly heighten anxiety and psychological stress. The overt Russian pre-strike propaganda and dehumanizing rhetoric will amplify this. The "debt collector" narrative specifically targets internal cohesion and trust. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Positive Impact (UKR): Timely warnings and effective AD responses, where successful, help to maintain a sense of resilience and trust. Continued Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia provide a morale boost and demonstrate Ukraine's retaliatory capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Impact (RU): Russian propaganda aims to bolster domestic morale by justifying their actions, claiming battlefield successes (Dnipropetrovsk), and highlighting perceived Western division, while demonstrating perceived overwhelming force. The "debt collector" narrative aims to sow division internally within Ukraine. News of internal drone attacks and fires may cause some internal concern, which Russian state media attempts to offset with distraction propaganda and now counter-IO on cyberattacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

• The severity and scale of the incoming missile strike (MiG-31K, multiple ballistic launches, 9 strategic bombers active, confirmed impacts across multiple oblasts) may galvanize further international support or increase pressure on Western partners to expedite aid, particularly AD munitions, beyond previous commitments. This level of attack is a clear demonstration of Russian intent to escalate and disregard for civilian casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Russian attempts to sow discord by citing "Western" sources or manipulate narratives (e.g., POW bodies in Italy, "Senator-Trumpist" quotes, "debt collectors," Trump/Rubio stumbling) indicates an intent to erode international solidarity and influence Western political landscapes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

• MLCOA 1: IMMEDIATE, MAX-SCALE, AND DIVERSIFIED STRATEGIC MISSILE ATTACK FEATURING HYPERSONIC AND BALLISTIC MISSILES, TARGETING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND URBAN CENTERS, COORDINATED WITH GROUND PRESSURE AND EXPLICIT DECEPTION OPERATIONS (ONGOING). Russia is currently executing a large-scale strategic missile assault, leveraging MiG-31K (Kinzhal), multiple ground-launched ballistic missiles (Iskanders) from Bryansk and Kursk (in successive waves), 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya (now confirmed launching Kh-101/555) AND 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 (having launched Kh-22s towards coastal areas and now returning). This follows initial saturation with Shaheds (confirmed impacts in Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv) and active Kh-31P SEAD attempts. This attack is targeting Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi), Kharkiv, Poltava, Chernihiv (explosions confirmed), Rivne (explosions confirmed), Dnipro, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Kremenchuk, and other major urban centers/infrastructure, with a high probability of prioritizing energy and water infrastructure, military-industrial targets, and potentially coastal/port infrastructure. Concurrently, KAB strikes on Kharkiv will continue to support ground advances or create urban destruction. On the ground, Russian forces will maintain intense attritional pressure on the Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk), employing advanced drone tactics against Ukrainian artillery. The information campaign will aggressively amplify the fabricated "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough," now using the false credibility of (fabricated) Western media citations and direct political backing from high-level Russian officials (Klishas). Concurrently, Russia will continue tactical deception ("Rivne not needed," "Chernihiv not needed," "drones ending soon") and overt mockery ("ammo supply") to compel Ukrainian redeployments and induce panic across the civilian population and military. New propaganda efforts will specifically target Western support by portraying Zelensky as a "dictator" luring NATO into war, and will spread new, damaging social disinformation (e.g., "Ukrainian debt collectors targeting mobilized personnel") while attempting to distract with irrelevant Western political news (Trump/Rubio). The new dehumanizing rhetoric ("chubaty al-Qaeda," "UGIL") will intensify, now with direct threats to specific cities (Rivne). Russia will also actively attempt to control the cyber narrative.
  • Confidence: HIGH (Confirmed MiG-31K launch with Kinzhal, multiple ballistic missile launches from Bryansk/Kursk, confirmed strategic bomber launches from two platforms, with increased numbers (total 9), ongoing Shahed/KAB activity, confirmed direct impacts across a widening AOR (Kyiv, Rivne, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv), active SEAD attempts, escalating, explicit Russian IO directly supported by high-level political figures, the introduction of new, highly specific social disinformation, direct threats, and distraction tactics, and a new wave of aerial assets indicated. This is the most intense observed air attack threat in many months, now actively unfolding.)
  • Indicators: Widespread and prolonged air alarms; multiple missile launches reported from various platforms (air, ground); severe impacts in Ukrainian cities across multiple oblasts, particularly on infrastructure; further Russian milblogger reports on "advances" or "awards" in Dnipropetrovsk; continued claims of POW captures or Russian "successes" on the ground (e.g., specific BDA on claimed military targets in Kharkiv); increased social media rumors and panic related to new disinformation narratives.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

• MDCOA 1: STRATEGIC DECAPITATION AND OPERATIONAL BREAKTHROUGH ENABLED BY EW OVERMATCH AND REAL-TIME IO. Russia conducts an unprecedented, multi-day, multi-wave strategic missile and drone assault from all available long-range aviation platforms (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160) and ground-launched ballistic missiles, including sustained use of "Kinzhal" and other hypersonic/ballistic assets, designed to systematically target and degrade Ukrainian C2 nodes (military and government), critical energy infrastructure, and key logistics hubs, aiming for functional decapitation or severe disruption. This mass strike would be coordinated with a surprise, rapid, and large-scale ground offensive on the Dnipropetrovsk axis, leveraging a significant operational-level force (e.g., multiple divisions, including the 90th Tank Division) from a previously static or lower-priority sector. This ground push would be supported by intense, broad-spectrum electronic warfare (EW) to blind Ukrainian ISR, disrupt military communications at all levels, and jam civilian networks, combined with a real-time, devastating psychological operations campaign (e.g., "Kyiv has fallen," "command has fled") to induce mass civilian panic and military collapse, attempting to force a major, uncoordinated Ukrainian retreat.
  • Confidence: MEDIUM (The current escalating IO around Dnipropetrovsk and the confirmed strategic bomber activity now including Kinzhal and multiple ballistic waves directly feed into elements of this MDCOA. The addition of these advanced missile types and the increased number of bombers overall significantly increases the destructive potential. The uncertainty lies in Russia's true capability for such a massive, integrated ground force breakthrough, particularly under a broad EW umbrella, and their willingness to commit such resources after AD suppression, and their ability to maintain such an intense air campaign for multiple days.)
  • Indicators: Sustained multi-day, high-intensity missile/drone attacks; direct targeting of top-tier Ukrainian C2 nodes; simultaneous, rapid, deep penetrations by multiple Russian BTGs/regiments/brigades into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; widespread and persistent communications outages affecting Ukrainian military and civilian networks; explicit Russian demands for surrender/negotiation from a position of perceived strength; mass internal displacement within Ukraine.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

• Next 0-3 Hours (IMMEDIATE - CRITICAL IMPACT WINDOW):

  • Strategic Missile Strikes: Impact of missiles launched by MiG-31K (Kinzhal), multiple waves of ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Kursk, 5 Tu-95MS bombers from Olenya (now confirmed launching Kh-101/555) and the previous launches by 4 Tu-22M3 bombers from Engels-2 is IMMINENT/ONGOING, with Tu-22M3s now returning. Targeting will likely include Kyiv (confirmed damage in Darnytskyi), Kharkiv, Poltava, Chernihiv (explosions), Rivne (explosions), Dnipro, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Kremenchuk/Svetlovodsk and other major urban centers/critical infrastructure. Specific focus on energy infrastructure and coastal/port targets is highly probable, with active SEAD against coastal AD.
  • Shahed/KAB Threat: Continuation of intense Shahed activity over Kyiv, Rivne (Dubno), and central Ukraine, with persistent KAB strikes on Kharkiv. Impacts in Rivne, Sumy, and Poltava confirm the active threat. Russia will attempt to deceive regarding the end of drone waves.
  • Information Environment: Expect rapid acceleration of Russian propaganda (Dnipropetrovsk narrative now citing "The Times" and high-level political figures, "ammo supply" mockery, tactical deception like "Rivne not needed," "Chernihiv not needed," and "drones ending soon," new dehumanizing rhetoric, Trump/Rubio distraction, direct threats to cities) concurrent with or immediately following missile impacts, emphasizing the "success" and "retaliation." New anti-Zelensky/anti-NATO propaganda and highly damaging social disinformation (debt collectors) will spread. Russia will also try to control the cyber narrative.
  • Ground Activity: Continued attritional assaults on Donetsk axis (Pokrovsk). High potential for a test or reconnaissance-in-force on the Dnipropetrovsk axis to gauge Ukrainian response to the escalating IO, even if a full breakthrough is not imminent.
  • Decision Points (UKR):
    • IMMEDIATE (ongoing): All AD assets to maximum readiness and dispersal protocols for incoming strategic missile strike from multiple platforms (Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, MiG-31K, ballistic missile launchers). Prioritize protection of C2 nodes, critical energy infrastructure, and major urban centers, with specific attention to SEAD attempts against AD systems. This is the most critical immediate task, requiring focus on the highest-speed threats.
    • IMMEDIATE: Rapid and aggressive counter-IO on the "Dnipropetrovsk breakthrough" narrative, particularly the fabricated "The Times" citations and the high-level political statements, the "ammo supply" claims, the "drones ending soon" deception, the new "debt collector" narrative, and the dehumanizing rhetoric, and direct threats (Rivne). Issue official statements debunking false claims and providing accurate information. Task ISR for immediate verification or denial of Russian force presence in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast beyond the current line of contact. Prepare contingency plans for a potential actual ground push on this axis, even if small-scale.
    • URGENT: Disseminate counter-PSYOPS messages to address the disinformation regarding POW bodies and other psychological intimidation tactics, and critically, the overt Russian propaganda regarding the incoming strike, tactical deception (e.g., "Rivne not needed," "Chernihiv not needed"), and anti-Zelensky/anti-NATO narratives, and the new social disinformation aimed at internal divisions, and the new distraction propaganda. Reinforce national resilience and preparedness.
    • URGENT: Reinforce communication channels and protocols to ensure resilience against potential EW or network saturation during mass attacks.
    • URGENT: Prioritize SIGINT/ELINT on Russian strategic aviation and EW systems to detect further missile launches or shifts in attack vectors. Maintain high vigilance on ground axes for any signs of massing reserves consistent with MDCOA, particularly on the Dnipropetrovsk axis.

• Next 3-24 Hours (Short Term):

  • Post-Strike Assessment: Evaluate damage, casualties, and impact on critical infrastructure from the strategic missile strike.
  • Russian Reaction: Monitor for immediate Russian claims of "successful strikes" or "retaliation" across multiple channels. Expect further political statements reinforcing the "denazification" narrative and other IO.
  • Ukrainian Recovery/Response: Initiate rapid recovery efforts. Continue active defense on all ground axes.
  • Intelligence Gap: Full BDA on the impact of the strategic missile strike. Confirmation of the Dnipropetrovsk ground situation. Russian next steps if initial strategic strike results in less than desired effects.

• Next 24-72 Hours (Medium Term):

  • Sustained Pressure: Russia will likely sustain aerial pressure (Shaheds, KABs) to hinder recovery efforts and maintain psychological pressure, potentially in further waves if initial effects are deemed insufficient.
  • Ground Offensive: Russian ground offensive on Donetsk and possibly Sumy axis will continue. The intensity of any push on Dnipropetrovsk will clarify if the IO was solely a feint or a precursor.
  • Information Warfare: Continued Russian efforts to exploit any perceived Ukrainian weaknesses or Western divisions.

• Intelligence Gaps:

  • Full BDA on Strategic Missile Strike: Precise number, type, and impact locations of all missiles launched by MiG-31K, ballistic launchers, Tu-95MS, and Tu-22M3, and their impact on Ukrainian critical infrastructure (energy, water, military-industrial targets). (HIGHEST PRIORITY)
  • Veracity of Dnipropetrovsk Claim: Definitive GEOINT/IMINT/HUMINT on Russian force composition, disposition, and actual advances (if any) in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Identification and verification of "Colonel Yevgeny Daraev" and the "tank regiment" (if real or fabricated). (HIGHEST PRIORITY)
  • Ukrainian AD Munition Levels: Updated assessment of critical interceptor munition inventories post-mass missile attack, especially for high-value ballistic/hypersonic interceptors. (HIGH PRIORITY)
  • Russian "200 Shaheds" Claim & New Wave Indication: Verify the claimed scale of the Shahed attack (over 200) and the scale/nature of the newly indicated wave of "reparations." (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Impact of Russian Anti-Radiation Missile Strikes: Assessment of damage/suppression to Ukrainian AD radars from Kh-31P launches. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Impact of Ukrainian Deep Strikes within Russia: BDA on the Gorno-Altaysk fire and the drone attacks in Tambov and Voronezh Oblasts, and any impact of the Kaspersky cyberattack. (MEDIUM PRIORITY)
  • Purpose/Location of "KRECHET" Mobile Observation Post: Determine the specific deployment and operational area of the new Russian mobile air observation post. (LOW-MEDIUM PRIORITY)

• Collection Requirements:

  • SIGINT/ELINT: Continuous monitoring of Russian strategic aviation communications and flight paths from all airbases (Engels-2, Olenya, Soltsy, Shaikovka), particularly for launch confirmations from Tu-95MS and MiG-31K. Monitor ballistic missile launch signatures. Identification of EW efforts synchronized with ground or air attacks, especially on Dnipropetrovsk axis and Black Sea coastal areas. Monitoring of Russian C2 networks for signs of operational-level ground movements.
  • GEOINT/IMINT: High-resolution satellite imagery over all claimed Russian advances, particularly Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, to detect force concentrations or actual penetration. Rapid assessment of critical infrastructure damage in Ukraine and within Russia from Ukrainian deep strikes. Imagery of ballistic missile launch sites in Bryansk/Kursk Oblasts. Imagery to identify deployment patterns of "KRECHET" mobile observation posts.
  • HUMINT: From frontline units for accurate reporting on Russian ground tactics, morale, and any unusual force dispositions. From affected civilian areas for accurate BDA and impact assessment. From occupied areas, if possible, to verify Russian claims and morale and the impact of social disinformation.
  • OSINT: Persistent monitoring of Russian milblogger and state media channels for new narratives, claims, and shifts in propaganda themes, particularly the explicit "mass strike" promotion, the Dnipropetrovsk narrative (now with TASS/Klishas amplification), tactical deception attempts ("drones ending soon," "Chernihiv not needed"), the new social disinformation (e.g., "debt collectors"), and any new distraction tactics (e.g., Trump/Rubio, Kaspersky cyber claims). Analysis of public sentiment within Ukraine, particularly regarding the Dnipropetrovsk narrative and large-scale strikes.

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END REPORT