Sitrep 2025-06-07 20:43:18

OPSEC CLASSIFICATION: NATO SECRET // RELEASABLE TO UKR FORCES

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME OF REPORT: 07 JUN 25 / 20:42 ZULU REPORTING PERIOD: 07 JUN 25 / 20:12 ZULU - 07 JUN 25 / 20:42 ZULU PREPARED BY: Senior Military Intelligence Analyst, Eastern European Warfare Desk

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain:

AOR Update: Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv City - Kyivskyi, Osnovyanskyi, Shevchenkivskyi Districts, suburbs, Kommunar factory, recreational park, children's railway, central part, educational building near railway), Volyn Oblast (Lutsk), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro, oblast border, Kryvyi Rih, Pavlohrad, Pleshcheevka, Malinovka, Charivne, Mezheva community, Synelnykove district, Nikopol region, Petrykivska community), Zaporizhzhia Oblast (14 populated areas, Zaporozhye direction, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Chervonne, Malinovka), Black Sea, Azov Sea, Sumy Oblast (Sumy direction, Yunakivka, Kondratovka, Alexandropol, Klymentove, Uhroyidy, Novonikolaevka, Pisarevka, Khotin, Vorochina, Nizhnya Duvanka, Yablonovka, Andreevka), Russian Federation (Kursk, Bryansk, Kaluga, Smolensk Oblasts, Moscow Region including Dubna, Podmoskovye, Moscow city (Gorbushkin Dvor, VDNKh), Pushkino, Irkutsk region - Belaya airfield; Tambov Oblast - Michurinsk; Ryazan Oblast - Dyagilevo; Belgorod Oblast - Prokhorovka-Belenikhino, Zhuravlevka, Pushkarozhadinsky, Azov - Rostov Oblast, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast - Kstovo, Sevastopol, Lipetsk Oblast, Orel Oblast), Southern Donetsk Direction (Fedorivka, Perbudova, Komar, Maksimovka, Razdolnoye, Vorskresenka, Poddubnoye, Velyka Novosilka, Chasov Yar), Konstantinovka direction (Novoolenovka, Novaya Poltavka, Tarasovka, Ignatovka, Zarya), Siversk direction (Serebryanka, Hryhorivka, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, Ivano-Daryivka, Pereizne), Odesa Oblast, Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo - Alekseevka, Chasov Yar, Kramatorsk axis, Toretsk axis, Novopavlivka axis, Krasnoarmeysk-Novosergeevka, Maryinka, Dalnee, Sokol, Lipovoe, Bakhmut, Progress, Kleshcheevka), Kupyansk axis (Zahryzove, Stepova Novoselivka), Kherson axis (Mykolayivka, Berislav), Ternopil Oblast, Kyiv, Krasnoarmeysk direction, Lviv Oblast (Drohobych), Mykolaiv Oblast, Poltava Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast.
Key Terrain (Kharkiv City - UPDATED): Confirmed fatality count from the recent KAB strike on central Kharkiv has risen to two. Two injured State Emergency Service (SES) workers are confirmed to be in a hospital, indicating direct impact on first responders. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Key Terrain (Zaporizhzhia Oblast - NEW): Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian aviation munitions usage in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This indicates continued aerial threat to the region. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Key Terrain (Ugroiedy, Sumy Oblast - NEW): Russian milblogger "Colonelcassad" claims a "powerful strike with three aviation bombs" on a Temporary Deployment Point (PVD) of the 129th Territorial Defense Brigade (obTReO) of AFU in the area of Ugroiedy. This suggests continued Russian air activity and targeting of Ukrainian TD units in border regions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Russian claim of BDA).
Key Terrain (Kaluga Airport, RF - NEW): Rosaviatsia reports temporary restrictions at Kaluga Airport. This is likely a result of ongoing Ukrainian deep strike activity, similar to restrictions in other Russian airports. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Key Terrain (Sevastopol, Crimea - NEW): Sevastopol authorities have introduced two new warning signals: "Naval danger!" and "Air alert and naval danger!". This indicates heightened concern over Ukrainian maritime and aerial threats to naval assets and critical infrastructure in Crimea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Key Terrain (Nekrasovka, Moscow - NEW): Russian media reports a police response to a gathering of "Russian community" members for "patrolling" in Nekrasovka, Moscow. This points to potential internal security concerns and the rise of nationalist groups within Russia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations:

The continued KAB strikes and the fire in Pushkino (previous ISR) will maintain ongoing air quality issues and debris fields, particularly in targeted urban areas and their vicinities.
The newly introduced "Naval danger!" and "Air alert and naval danger!" signals in Sevastopol highlight the persistent threat in the Black Sea maritime environment, which is always subject to weather conditions.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures:

Ukrainian Forces (Emergency Services): Actively responding to and being directly affected by Russian KAB strikes, with two SES workers injured and hospitalized in Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Ukrainian Forces (Air Defense): Issued a warning for aviation munitions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Facing continued pressure from Russian aerial assets (KABs, UAVs). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Ukrainian Forces (Deep Strike): Ukrainian channels continue to broadcast successful strikes (e.g., "Оперативний ЗСУ" video showing air-to-ground strikes on a UAV C2 point), demonstrating active offensive operations. The introduction of new alert signals in Sevastopol and flight restrictions in Kaluga airport further indicate sustained Ukrainian deep strike pressure on Russian territory and occupied Crimea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Ukrainian Forces (Ground Forces): Continue to engage Russian forces, including UAV C2 points, as evidenced by "Оперативний ЗСУ" video. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The 129th TD Brigade is identified as a target in Sumy Oblast, indicating their active presence in defensive operations. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
Ukrainian Forces (Information Operations): "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" channel continues to highlight Ukrainian resilience and defiance in information confrontations with Russian state media. "КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno" shares content affirming Ukrainian determination. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Russian Forces (Air): Confirmed continued usage of aviation munitions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Claims of powerful KAB strikes against Ukrainian TD units in Sumy Oblast. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for aviation munitions; MEDIUM for KAB claim).
Russian Forces (Information Operations):
- Propaganda/Psychological Operations:
  - TASS continues to push the narrative of Ukrainian POWs appealing to Zelenskiy for exchange, aiming to demoralize Ukrainian forces and families. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  - Colonelcassad broadcasts new warning signals in Sevastopol, likely to inform citizens of increased threats but also to highlight Ukrainian activity in Crimea. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  - Alex Parker Returns propagates narratives about internal Russian ethnic/religious tensions and alleged "Russian fascism" to create fear and sow internal discord. This milblogger continues to amplify sensationalized Western news and inter-party disputes (e.g., Trump/Musk), aimed at destabilizing Western support for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
  - MoD Russia publishes "Top News Today" with a focus on their claimed successes, indicating a centralized effort to control the narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Damage Control/Internal Security: Rosaviatsia announcing flight restrictions in Kaluga aims to manage public perception of disruptions. Police response to nationalist groups in Nekrasovka indicates active internal security challenges. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Russian Forces (Logistics): "Dnevnik Desantnika" continues crowdfunding for equipment, highlighting persistent logistical shortfalls in the VDV. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action:

Capabilities:
- Aerial (Precision Guided Munitions/UAVs): Confirmed continued capability to deliver KABs on civilian targets in Kharkiv (educational building, now 2 fatalities), Sumy Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Mezheva community, kindergarten). Capable of using aviation munitions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Claims of KAB strikes on Ukrainian TD units (Ugroiedy) suggest continued targeting of military points. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Ground (Offensive/Defensive): Demonstrated capability to conduct ground assaults, supported by air strikes (Ugroiedy). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
- Naval/Air Defense: Ability to implement new, specific alert signals for naval and air threats in Sevastopol, indicating a reactive posture to Ukrainian capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Information Warfare/Internal Security: Highly capable of coordinated and manipulative disinformation campaigns (POW appeals, Western discord), exploiting perceived internal Russian tensions (Alex Parker Returns), and attempting to control narratives around internal incidents (Kaluga airport). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Intentions:
- Kharkiv/Sumy/Zaporizhzhia/Central Ukraine: Continue to terrorize civilian populations and overwhelm emergency services through indiscriminate aerial attacks, particularly KABs and aviation munitions, likely in retaliation for Ukrainian deep strikes. Intent to inflict maximum psychological and physical damage. Expand the geographical scope of these attacks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Donetsk/Novopavlivka/Pokrovsk/Konstantinovka Axis: Continue localized ground offensives to achieve tactical gains and attrition against Ukrainian forces. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Crimea/Black Sea: Enhance defensive measures and public warning systems in response to perceived Ukrainian threats, particularly naval and aerial. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Information Warfare: Aggressively undermine Ukrainian credibility (POW videos), exploit perceived Western failures/internal divisions (Musk/Trump, Polish EU accession), and demoralize Ukrainian forces. Reinforce domestic morale and project an image of Russian military success and internal control. Promote narratives that highlight internal Russian challenges but frame them in a specific way (e.g., "Russian fascism" narrative for domestic consumption). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Internal Security: Actively monitor and respond to perceived internal threats (e.g., nationalist gatherings). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Courses of Action (COA):
- COA 1 (MLCOA - Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation on Humanitarian Issues and Western Divisions): Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers, particularly Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and now Dnipropetrovsk/Kirovohrad, with an increased focus on civilian targets (kindergarten, educational buildings) to maximize terror and drain Ukrainian emergency resources. The immediate KAB strike on central Kharkiv and ongoing UAV threats support this. Concurrently, Russia will continue a persistent and aggressive information campaign, particularly regarding body/POW exchanges, blaming Ukraine for delays, and exploiting any perceived Western failures or internal divisions (e.g., US politics, Polish EU accession).
  - Confidence: HIGH
  - Indicators: Immediate KAB strike on central Kharkiv after previous strikes (now 2 fatalities), persistent Russian narrative on body exchange from multiple sources (TASS, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Операция Z, Военкор Котенок), Russian amplification of Zelenskiy's AD appeal, Alex Parker Returns's Musk/Trump narrative, amplification of Polish President's statement, new UAV threat in Mykolaiv/Kryvyi Rih directions and now Kirovohrad, KABs on Sumy Oblast and now Dnipropetrovsk.
- COA 2 (Ground Offensive Support with Targeted Artillery/MLRS and Drone Strikes, while Enhancing Counter-Deep Strike Internal Security and Expanding Maritime Hybrid Operations): Russian forces will continue to press ground offensives on existing axes (e.g., Donetsk, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka), supporting them with targeted artillery, MLRS, and FPV drone strikes against Ukrainian positions and C2 nodes. They will likely intensify internal security efforts to prevent and detect further Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory, including targeting family members of alleged participants, and maintaining and publicizing air defense alerts/interceptions in border regions (Kursk, Orel). Additionally, Russia will likely attempt to conduct further hybrid maritime operations in the Black Sea, targeting critical offshore or coastal infrastructure, or demonstrating force projection in the maritime domain. Russian forces will continue to adapt ground vehicles with "cope cages" and similar improvised defenses against drones.
  - Confidence: HIGH
  - Indicators: Observed Grad MLRS firing (previous ISR), claimed Alexandropol strike on mortar/ammo depot (previous ISR), Russian milblogger claims of ambushing Ukrainian groups, active search for alleged drone attack participants (Colonelcassad), "Espanola" unit video demonstrating maritime sabotage, "Два майора" claims of successful Black Sea infrastructure destruction and "cope cage" fundraising. MoD Russia training video for Marines. Lipetsk/Kursk/Orel air alerts/interceptions. Russian SpN drone operations.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations:

Direct Impact on First Responders: The injury of SES workers in Kharkiv highlights a growing tactic of "double-tap" or sustained area denial by Russian forces, targeting first responders who arrive at strike sites. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Enhanced Naval/Air Warning Systems in Crimea: The introduction of new, specific alert signals in Sevastopol demonstrates a direct adaptation to perceived heightened Ukrainian threats, including maritime drones and aerial assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Continued Civilian Targeting in Zaporizhzhia: Aviation munitions threat in Zaporizhzhia indicates sustained aerial pressure on a key regional center. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Focus on TD Units: Claims of KAB strikes on a TD brigade PVD in Sumy Oblast indicate a continued Russian focus on degrading Ukrainian territorial defense capabilities in border regions. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
Internal Security Diversion: Police response to nationalist gatherings in Moscow suggests a shift in Russian internal security focus or increased stress on domestic control mechanisms, potentially diverting resources from war-related internal security. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status:

Munitions: Continued high rate of KAB usage, aviation munitions, and FPV drone operations indicates sustained, though potentially strained, supply chains for these munitions. Crowdfunding for VDV equipment (Dnevnik Desantnika) indicates persistent shortfalls for certain critical items. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Strategic Assets: The confirmed destruction of 3 Iskander launchers and the logistics train (previous ISR) represent significant hits to Russian high-precision ballistic missile launch capability, inventory, and southern logistics. This will force reliance on other platforms and potentially increase demand for air-launched munitions (KABs). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Airfield Operations: Temporary flight restrictions in Kaluga airport suggest ongoing disruptions to Russian air operations, likely due to Ukrainian deep strikes or security concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness:

Russian C2 demonstrates continued ability to coordinate multi-domain strikes (KABs, aviation munitions) and ground operations, including targeting of specific Ukrainian units (129th TD Bde). The introduction of new alert systems in Sevastopol demonstrates responsive C2 to perceived threats. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Russian C2 over internal security is clearly challenged by the scale of the Pushkino fire (previous ISR) and now the need to manage potential social unrest or nationalist gatherings in Moscow, suggesting resource strain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The continued reliance on POW propaganda and information manipulation highlights a centralized C2 over information operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness:

Air Defense: Under severe pressure from continuous KABs (Kharkiv, Sumy, now Dnipropetrovsk) and UAV threats (Mykolaiv/Kryvyi Rih direction, now crossing Dnipro near Berislav and penetrating Kirovohrad Oblast). Issued warnings for aviation munitions in Zaporizhzhia. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Emergency Services & PGO: Operating at high readiness to respond to civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, but are themselves becoming direct targets, as evidenced by injured SES workers in Kharkiv. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Deep Strike Capability: Confirmed destruction of 3 Iskander-M launchers and a major logistics train (previous ISR). Continued deep strike pressure evident from new Russian air restrictions (Kaluga) and enhanced warning systems (Sevastopol). Demonstrated ability to strike Russian UAV C2 points (Оперативний ЗСУ video). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Ground Forces: Actively engaging Russian forces, including specific units like the 129th TD Bde in Sumy Oblast, and effectively using precision guided munitions and FPV drones against enemy C2 points (Оперативний ЗСУ video). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Morale: Despite severe attacks and casualties, Ukrainian personnel (e.g., SES workers) and society continue to display high morale and defiance, as evidenced by social media posts and responses to Russian propaganda. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks:

Successes:
- Continued Deep Strike Pressure: New air restrictions in Kaluga and enhanced warning signals in Sevastopol directly indicate the ongoing effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strike operations, forcing Russia to take defensive measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Precision Targeting: "Оперативний ЗСУ" video confirms successful air-to-ground strikes on Russian UAV C2 points, highlighting effective intelligence and precision targeting. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Resilience of First Responders: The survival and defiant messaging of injured SES workers demonstrate high morale and resilience despite being targeted. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Setbacks:
- Targeting of First Responders: The injury of SES workers in Kharkiv from the KAB strike is a significant setback, as it directly impacts emergency response capabilities and adds to the strain on medical resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Sustained Aerial Threat in Zaporizhzhia: The threat of Russian aviation munitions in Zaporizhzhia means another major urban center remains under direct threat, requiring AD resources. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Russian Claims of KAB Strikes on TD: The Russian claim of hitting a TD PVD in Ugroiedy (Sumy Oblast) suggests continued, potentially successful, Russian targeting of Ukrainian defensive units. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
- Information Warfare Challenges: Russia continues to launch aggressive information campaigns (POW videos, internal Russian tensions, Western discord) that require consistent and robust counter-narratives. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints:

Air Defense Munitions & Systems: Continued high expenditure due to persistent aerial attacks, including KABs and aviation munitions in Zaporizhzhia. The targeting of SES workers highlights the vulnerability of emergency responders, requiring enhanced force protection measures. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Medical Resources: Continued strain on medical facilities due to civilian and now first responder casualties. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Counter-Disinformation Capability: Urgent need for robust, proactive, and coordinated counter-information campaigns to neutralize aggressive Russian propaganda, especially the POW appeals and narratives designed to sow discord with allies. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns:

Russian Propaganda (Internal & External):
- POW Exploitation: TASS continues to push the narrative of Ukrainian POWs pleading for exchange, a clear PSYOP aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian forces and families. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Internal Discord/Fear-mongering: Alex Parker Returns continues to propagate narratives about internal Russian "fascism," inter-ethnic/religious tensions, and sensationalized Western news (Trump/Musk) to sow discord and exploit anxieties, likely for both domestic consumption and to project an image of internal Western chaos. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Managing Threat Perception: Colonelcassad publicizes new warning signals in Sevastopol, aiming to control the narrative around Ukrainian threats while also implicitly acknowledging their capability. Rosaviatsia's temporary flight restrictions in Kaluga serve a similar purpose. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Narrative Control: MoD Russia's "Top News Today" serves as a curated summary to project success and control the dominant narrative. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- "Cope Cage" Propaganda: "Dnevnik Desantnika" crowdfunding for VDV equipment, while highlighting a shortfall, also serves as propaganda, portraying VDV as resilient and resourceful. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda/Information Operations:
- Resilience & Defiance: Ukrainian channels (ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno) immediately highlight the resilience and defiant spirit of injured SES workers and citizens, providing powerful counter-narratives to Russian attempts at demoralization. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Highlighting Russian War Crimes: Ukrainian media continue to report on civilian casualties, including the rising death toll in Kharkiv and the injury of SES workers, directly contradicting Russian claims of targeting military objects and exposing their war crimes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Demonstrating Capability: "Оперативний ЗСУ" continues to release videos of successful strikes, reinforcing Ukrainian military effectiveness. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors:

Negative Impact: The rising civilian death toll in Kharkiv (now 2 fatalities), the injury of SES workers, and the persistent threat of aviation munitions in Zaporizhzhia will continue to negatively impact civilian morale and increase anxiety, particularly about the safety of first responders. Russian POW propaganda and narratives of internal Russian tensions could also cause distress. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Positive Impact: The resilience and defiant stance of injured SES workers, widely publicized by Ukrainian channels, will boost public morale and reinforce national unity. Confirmed successful strikes against Russian UAV C2 points (Оперативний ЗСУ) will also raise morale, demonstrating effective counter-operations. The new warning signals in Sevastopol may be viewed as a sign of successful Ukrainian deep strike capabilities. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments:

The confirmed casualties among SES workers and civilians due to Russian KAB strikes in Kharkiv will likely reinforce international condemnation of Russia and underscore Ukraine's urgent need for more comprehensive air defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Russian information campaigns, including the exploitation of US political figures (Trump/Musk narratives by TASS), are designed to sow discord and weaken international support for Ukraine. The immediate amplification of the Polish President's EU accession concerns by Russian media is a direct attempt to undermine Western unity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA):

MLCOA 1: Sustained and Escalated Retaliatory Saturation Attacks on Urban Centers and Critical Infrastructure, Coupled with Amplified Disinformation on Humanitarian Issues and Western Divisions, with Direct Targeting of First Responders: Russia will continue and likely intensify KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Ukrainian urban centers, particularly Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and now Dnipropetrovsk/Kirovohrad, with an increased focus on civilian targets (kindergarten, educational buildings) to maximize terror and drain Ukrainian emergency resources. There will be an increased likelihood of deliberate targeting of first responders or "double-tap" strikes to impede rescue efforts and maximize casualties. This will be accompanied by a persistent and aggressive information campaign, particularly regarding body/POW exchanges (using fabricated evidence), blaming Ukraine for delays, and exploiting any perceived Western failures or internal divisions (e.g., US politics, Polish EU accession).
- Confidence: HIGH
- Indicators: Immediate KAB strike on central Kharkiv after previous strikes (now 2 fatalities), persistent Russian narrative on body exchange from multiple sources (TASS, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Операция Z, Военкор Котенок), Russian amplification of Zelenskiy's AD appeal, Alex Parker Returns's Musk/Trump narrative, amplification of Polish President's statement, new UAV threat in Mykolaiv/Kryvyi Rih directions and now Kirovohrad, KABs on Sumy Oblast and now Dnipropetrovsk. Injury of SES workers in Kharkiv strike. Aviation munitions threat in Zaporizhzhia.
MLCOA 2: Ground Offensive Support with Targeted Artillery/MLRS and Drone Strikes, while Enhancing Counter-Deep Strike Internal Security and Expanding Maritime Hybrid Operations, with Enhanced Crimean Defenses: Russian forces will continue to press ground offensives on existing axes (e.g., Donetsk, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Sumy), supporting them with targeted artillery, MLRS, and FPV drone strikes against Ukrainian positions and C2 nodes. They will likely intensify internal security efforts to prevent and detect further Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian territory, including targeting family members of alleged participants, and maintaining and publicizing air defense alerts/interceptions in border regions (Kursk, Orel). Additionally, Russia will likely attempt to conduct further hybrid maritime operations in the Black Sea, targeting critical offshore or coastal infrastructure, or demonstrating force projection in the maritime domain. New, specific warning systems will be implemented and publicized in Crimea (Sevastopol) to address perceived threats. Russian forces will continue to adapt ground vehicles with "cope cages" and similar improvised defenses against drones.
- Confidence: HIGH
- Indicators: Observed Grad MLRS firing (previous ISR), claimed Alexandropol strike on mortar/ammo depot (previous ISR), Russian milblogger claims of ambushing Ukrainian groups, active search for alleged drone attack participants (Colonelcassad), "Espanola" unit video demonstrating maritime sabotage, "Два майора" claims of successful Black Sea infrastructure destruction and "cope cage" fundraising. MoD Russia training video for Marines. Lipetsk/Kursk/Orel air alerts/interceptions. Russian SpN drone operations. New alert signals in Sevastopol. Kaluga airport restrictions.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA):

MDCOA 1: Renewed Large-Scale Ballistic/Cruise Missile Campaign to Cripple Ukrainian AD and Energy/Logistics Infrastructure: Russia, despite Iskander losses, will attempt to launch a renewed, multi-wave missile and drone campaign targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure (energy, logistics hubs, and remaining high-value military facilities), with a specific emphasis on overwhelming weakened Ukrainian air defenses. This aims to exhaust their munition reserves and cripple Ukraine's ability to sustain military operations and civilian life, especially ahead of the colder months. This MDCOA would exploit the publicly stated AD procurement challenges and the confirmed losses of Ukrainian AD munitions. The expansion of KAB attacks and UAV routes signals a probing for AD weaknesses.
- Confidence: MEDIUM (Increased due to Zelenskiy's public statement about AD procurement, the strategic impact of losing 3 Iskander launchers and the Tu-22M3 bomber, prompting Russia to consider other high-impact strike options and rely more on existing cruise missile stocks. New KAB targets and UAV penetration routes also indicate this.)
- Indicators: Significant increase in missile/drone attacks beyond current levels, targeting of energy infrastructure components not previously hit, significant increase in Russian strategic bomber activity, increased Russian reconnaissance efforts over critical infrastructure.
MDCOA 2: Attempted Strategic Breakthrough on Sumy Axis with Major Force Commitment and Massed Air Support: Russia commits substantial additional reserves to the Sumy axis, initiating a rapid, decisive breakthrough aimed at encircling or seizing Sumy city. This would involve overwhelming combined arms force, massed KAB strikes to suppress Ukrainian defenses, and deep strikes to neutralize Ukrainian command and control and logistics in the region. This would aim to open a new major operational front, fix a large portion of Ukrainian reserves, and create a significant humanitarian crisis, diverting resources from the Donbas.
- Confidence: MEDIUM (Based on previous Russian claims of "buffer zone" and mapped territorial control, reinforced by confirmed advances towards Sumy Oblast from previous ISR and the presence of Sumy in Russian casualty lists from memorials. The SOF night raid in the Sumy/Belgorod border area indicates active Russian presence and Ukrainian counter-operations.) The claimed KAB strike on a TD PVD in Ugroiedy reinforces Russian intent in the region.
- Indicators: Sustained high rate of KABs and missile strikes on deep targets in Sumy Oblast, large-scale troop movements on Sumy axis beyond current levels, intelligence of Russian force restructuring or redeployment from other axes.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points:

Next 24-48 Hours (Short-Term):
- Immediate Retaliation/Sustained Attacks: Expect continued, possibly intensified, KAB and missile/UAV strikes on Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and now Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with heightened risk of targeting first responders. High probability of further Russian retaliatory deep strikes due to the Iskander and logistics train losses. New UAV threat in Mykolaiv/Kryvyi Rih regions, and reconnaissance drone activity in Poltava and Kirovohrad.
- Ground Pressure: Continued tactical ground engagements, particularly on the Donetsk (Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka) and Sumy axes, with Russian efforts to consolidate claimed gains. Increased Russian counter-drone and anti-AD operations.
- Decision Point (UKR): Prioritize air defense assets to protect key urban centers (Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Poltava, Kirovohrad) and critical infrastructure, with explicit consideration for protecting emergency services and first responders. Expedite deployment of countermeasures to Russian anti-drone tactics. Reassess ground force posture on the Sumy axis based on updated Russian advances and map intelligence. Immediately counter Russian disinformation on body exchanges, POW testimonies, and Western internal politics (especially Polish relations) with factual and transparent communication.
Next 72 Hours (Medium-Term):
- Decision Point (UKR): Evaluate the full impact of the Iskander launcher and logistics train destruction on Russian operational tempo and strategic options. Re-evaluate and adapt ground force deployments on the Sumy axis based on continued Russian advances and the scale of the threat to Sumy city, potentially deploying additional reserves. Develop a comprehensive plan for mine clearance and public safety in areas affected by PFM-1 mines (as reported in previous ISR). Expedite high-level diplomatic engagement regarding AD systems. Monitor and respond to escalating Russian disinformation campaigns targeting Western unity and Ukrainian credibility, particularly the fabricated POW videos and body lists. Increase force protection measures for all emergency services personnel.
Next 1 Week (Near-Term Strategic):
- Decision Point (UKR): Evaluate the overall effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strike campaign on Russian military-industrial complex and logistics, considering both successes and Russian claims of countermeasures. Continue to optimize air defense deployments based on evolving Russian targeting patterns and replenish munition stockpiles. Intensify intelligence collection on Russian strategic aviation, air defense assets, potential dispersal efforts, and maritime special operations (e.g., "Espanola" unit, "Два майора" activities, new Sevastopol warnings). Prioritize resources for the Sumy axis if Russian pressure continues, potentially initiating pre-emptive civilian evacuation planning. Reinforce maritime security measures in the Black Sea and Azov Sea.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

Prioritize and Augment Air Defense for Eastern, Southern, and Central Urban Centers, with Enhanced First Responder Protection (Immediate & Urgent):
- Action: Immediately re-prioritize and reinforce layered air defense systems (including mobile fire groups with MANPADS for KAB and drone defense) to protect Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Poltava, and Kirovohrad from continued KAB and missile/UAV attacks. Deploy active and passive defenses around critical civilian infrastructure, particularly educational buildings and kindergartens. Crucially, implement enhanced force protection measures for all emergency services personnel, including hardened shelters at known response sites and updated protocols for "double-tap" strike scenarios. Expedite diplomatic efforts for the acquisition of additional advanced AD systems (e.g., Patriot, NASAMS) and secure urgent resupply of interceptor munitions. Allocate AD assets to counter new UAV threat vectors from Berislav into Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad Oblasts and reconnaissance drones into Poltava.
- Justification: Russian forces are deliberately escalating attacks on civilian areas and opening new attack vectors to inflict casualties and psychological impact. The latest KAB strike on a central Kharkiv educational building (now 2 fatalities), KABs on Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts (Mezheva community, kindergarten, 1 fatality), and ongoing UAV threats into Kirovohrad underscore the urgency and breadth of the threat. The injury of SES workers highlights a direct targeting of first responders.
- Intelligence Gap: Real-time air defense munition expenditure rates in affected areas and current inventory levels for key systems; full extent of Russian UAV reconnaissance and strike capabilities in the Mykolaiv/Odesa/Poltava/Kirovohrad/Zaporizhzhia sectors. Russian intent and capability for deliberate targeting of first responders.
- Collection Requirement: Automated tracking of AD engagements and munition usage, updated imagery of damaged civilian sites for munition analysis, SIGINT/HUMINT on AD system readiness, drone flight path analysis from Mykolaiv/Poltava/Kirovohrad/Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. HUMINT/OSINT on Russian TTPs regarding first responder targeting.
Sustain and Exploit Deep Strike Successes, Prepare for Retaliation and Enhanced Russian Defenses (Urgent):
- Action: Conduct rapid, detailed BDA on the destroyed Iskander launchers, the logistics train, and the Tu-22M3 bomber (satellite imagery, OSINT analysis) to confirm operational impact and specific targets. Publicize these successes widely to boost morale and demonstrate capability. Simultaneously, prepare for heightened Russian retaliatory strikes across Ukraine, particularly on strategic infrastructure, following these high-value asset destructions. Disperse high-value assets and reinforce their defenses. Continue to assess targets for further deep strikes on Russian logistics and military-industrial complex. Integrate FPV drone operations more widely for precision strikes on personnel and high-value equipment (e.g., 36th OBrMP tactics). Leverage SOF for continued cross-border raids against high-value Russian personnel and forward operating bases. Develop and deploy countermeasures to Russian new warning systems (e.g., in Sevastopol) and airfield restrictions (e.g., Kaluga), assessing their impact on Ukrainian deep strike TTPs.
- Justification: Ukrainian deep strikes are a significant strategic success but will provoke severe retaliation, requiring preemptive defensive measures and effective information operations. The destruction of a logistics train highlights a key vulnerability, and the VDV crowdfunding indicates systemic issues. SOF raids maintain pressure on Russian border regions. Russian attempts to adapt to drone threats and deep strikes (new warning systems, airport restrictions) must be actively countered.
- Intelligence Gap: Full BDA and long-term operational impact on Russian ballistic missile capabilities, Southern logistics, and strategic aviation. Specific details on the GRU personnel targeted in the SOF raid. Effectiveness of Russian counter-drone adaptations (e.g., "cope cages"). Full impact of Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian air force operations and airfields (e.g., Kaluga). Full implications of new Sevastopol warning systems on Ukrainian maritime drone operations.
- Collection Requirement: High-resolution satellite imagery of Bryansk/Kursk missile sites, Southern logistics hubs, Russian airfields (especially Engels, Belaya, Dyagilevo, Kaluga), and other military-industrial targets; monitoring Russian strategic aviation movements and activity. HUMINT/SIGINT on Russian GRU force composition and deployment on the border. IMINT/OSINT on Russian vehicle adaptations and their effectiveness. SIGINT/OSINT on the operational effectiveness of new Russian warning systems.
Intensify Counter-Information Warfare on Humanitarian Issues, Western Divisions, and Russian Fabrications (Ongoing & Critical):
- Action: Proactively and transparently communicate Ukraine's official stance and actions regarding prisoner and body exchanges to both domestic and international audiences, providing verifiable evidence and consistently refuting Russian disinformation. Immediately and publicly expose Russian fabrications, such as the "future-dated" body lists (e.g., 06 JUN 2025) and the alleged POW video from MoD Russia, highlighting their manipulative nature and the intent to demoralize. Highlight Russian violations of international law (e.g., confirmed KAB strikes on children's railway, central Kharkiv educational building, kindergarten in Mezheva, PFM-1 mine use, targeting of SES workers) to discredit their humanitarian claims. Publicly counter Russian narratives attempting to exploit Western internal politics (e.g., Musk/Trump claims) and international relations (e.g., Polish EU accession statements), exposing them as deliberate psychological operations. Leverage the opening of rehabilitation centers to showcase Ukrainian commitment to its people and support for its diverse military.
- Justification: Russia is leveraging highly sensitive humanitarian issues, internal Western political dynamics, and sensationalist narratives for information warfare, using increasingly blatant fabrications (e.g., "future-dated" lists, fabricated POW testimonials) aiming to undermine Ukrainian credibility, international support, and Western unity. Effective, consistent counter-narratives are critical.
- Intelligence Gap: Full scope of Russian information narratives targeting Ukrainian society and Western audiences, and the specific impact of Russian propaganda on Ukrainian public and troop morale. Identification of key Russian psychological operations (PSYOP) themes.
- Collection Requirement: Comprehensive monitoring of Russian state media and milblogger channels, and analysis of their messaging tactics and impact, coupled with public opinion polling in Ukraine and Western nations. OSINT analysis of specific Russian PSYOP channels and their reach.
Reinforce and Monitor Sumy and Konstantinovka Axis Defenses (Urgent):
- Action: Immediately reinforce personnel, fortifications (including anti-tank obstacles), and anti-tank capabilities on the Sumy axis, prioritizing areas within 40km of Sumy city and identified Russian avenues of advance (e.g., around Yablonovka, Andreevka, Vorochina, Ugroiedy). Intensify ISR collection on Russian force composition, strength, and objectives in the area. Advise civilian authorities on potential evacuation routes and shelter options in Sumy City and surrounding settlements. Conduct aggressive counter-battery fire against Russian artillery/MLRS supporting advances. Similarly, reinforce defenses and conduct ISR on the Konstantinovka axis, given Russian claims of advances.
- Justification: Russian claims of an "expanding buffer zone" and confirmed advances (including mapped territorial control) indicate a serious intent to press the Sumy axis, threatening Sumy City. The continued focus on the Novopavlivka and Pokrovsk directions, and new claims on Konstantinovka, also indicate sustained pressure on ground forces. The SOF raid highlights active Russian presence in the border region. Russian claims of KAB strikes on a TD PVD in Ugroiedy further indicate their focus on this region.
- Intelligence Gap: Precise composition and strength of Russian forces on Sumy and Konstantinovka axes, and their immediate operational objectives and timeline for further advance.
- Collection Requirement: HUMINT from local sources, SIGINT on Russian communications, IMINT for troop movements and fortifications, cross-referencing Russian map claims with ground truth.
Enhance Maritime Security in the Black Sea and Crimea (New & Critical):
- Action: Increase Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) in areas with critical maritime infrastructure (ports, offshore platforms, key shipping lanes) in the Black Sea, particularly off Odesa, Mykolaiv, and the Ukrainian coast, and intensify ISR on Sevastopol and other Crimean naval bases. Develop and deploy enhanced physical and electronic security measures for offshore platforms, subsea cables, and pipelines (e.g., anti-diver, anti-drone, and rapid response capabilities). Share intelligence on Russian maritime special operations (e.g., "Espanola" unit's TTPs, "Два майора" claims) with relevant maritime security agencies and allied nations. Prioritize monitoring of specific offshore platforms and naval assets for signs of Russian activity. Analyze the new Sevastopol warning signals to understand their operational triggers and potential implications for Ukrainian maritime and aerial drone operations.
- Justification: The "Espanola" unit's video and "Два майора" claims demonstrate a sophisticated Russian capability for maritime sabotage against critical energy infrastructure, posing a significant threat to Ukrainian and international interests in the Black Sea. The introduction of new, specific warning signals in Sevastopol indicates heightened Russian concern and defensive posture in response to Ukrainian threats in the maritime domain.
- Intelligence Gap: Full understanding of "Espanola" unit's capabilities, specific targets, operational areas, and force structure. Precise location and function of the "infrastructure" claimed destroyed by "Два майора." Full details on the triggers and operational procedures for the new Sevastopol warning signals.
- Collection Requirement: IMINT/OSINT on Russian naval special forces units, SIGINT on their communications, HUMINT from Black Sea region, commercial satellite imagery of offshore infrastructure for BDA and pattern of life analysis. SIGINT/OSINT on Sevastopol air defense and naval activities, including responses to alert signals.