Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Fri Jun 6 01:28:45 2025)

Key Updates and Trends

1. Aerial Activity and Air Defense Responses: * "Geran" (Shahed) Activity Continues: * Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 new "mopeds" (Shaheds) approaching Ternopil (1 from east, 2 from south). (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 "mopeds" (Shaheds) over southern Kyiv and suburbs. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in southeastern Kyiv. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs targeting Ternopil. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports the number of "mopeds" over Kyiv has reduced to 4. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports another "moped" flying towards Ternopil from the north. (Previous) * РБК-Україна reports repeated explosions in Lutsk. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports Ternopil is actively defending against 5 "mopeds," with 1 additional "moped" approaching from Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 "mopeds" approaching/passing through Shepetivka, anticipating loud activity. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports successful interceptions ("minus") on 6 "mopeds" targeting Ternopil. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports successful interceptions ("minus") on 3 "mopeds" targeting Ternopil. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports a "moped" approaching Lutsk from the south, with anticipated air defense activity. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports Lutsk has successfully defended against the "moped" threat. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports a "moped" approaching Rivne, with anticipated air defense activity. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports successful interceptions ("minus") on "mopeds" targeting Chernihiv. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports Kyiv has successfully defended against "mopeds." (New) * НгП раZVедка claims dozens of drones are hitting targets in Ternopil, with additional impacts in Rivne Oblast. (New) * РБК-Україна reports a series of explosions in Ternopil. (New) * Colonelcassad shares photo/video claiming a strong fire in Ternopil after impacts. (New) * НгП раZVедка shares photo claiming "it's warm in Ternopil," indicating significant impacts. (New) * ТАСС and ASTRA report that Moscow Mayor Sobyanin confirmed 6 drones flying towards Moscow were destroyed by air defense, followed by reports of 3 more drones destroyed, bringing the total to 9. (New) * ASTRA reports readers from Naro-Fominsk, Moscow Oblast, reporting explosions. (New) * Colonelcassad reports that the drone attack in the direction of Moscow was repelled. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in eastern Cherkasy, northern Khmelnytskyi and Ternopil Oblasts, and over Lutsk. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports Lutsk is defending against mopeds. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports a possible "minus" on mopeds in Ternopil, but one remained from a previous wave. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports 1 moped remaining on approach to Lutsk from the east. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports Lutsk has defended against the moped. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports another moped approaching Lutsk from Dubno. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 mopeds approaching Chernihiv. (New) * Russian Naval Missile Threat Reaffirmed: * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Kalibr" cruise missile launches from the south. (Previous) * РБК-Україна confirms "Kalibr" launches from the south, citing the Air Force. (Previous) * ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports "Kalibr" launches. (Previous) * НгП раZVедка states that following air-launched missiles, sea-launched missiles have also taken off, and they are only missing OTRK (ballistic missiles) for the full package. (Previous) * STERNENKO confirms "Kalibr" launches. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports "Kalibr" launches from the Gelendzhik area. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles in Kherson Oblast. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports "Kalibrs" entering from Kherson Oblast, heading towards Snihurivka. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missiles changed course southward towards Cherkasy. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports at least 6 "Kalibrs" are in Ukrainian airspace, passing Snihurivka towards Bashtanka. (New) * РБК-Україна reports missiles changed course southward towards Cherkasy, citing the Air Force. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Kalibrs" in Mykolaiv Oblast heading northwest. (New) * РБК-Україна reports "Kalibrs" in Mykolaiv Oblast heading northwest, citing the Air Force. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports all "Kalibrs" are passing Bashtanka towards Pervomaisk. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports "Kalibrs" near Yelanka are moving into Kirovohrad Oblast, heading north. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Kalibr" cruise missiles from Mykolaiv Oblast entered Kirovohrad Oblast and are moving towards Cherkasy Oblast. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Kalibr" missiles in Kyiv Oblast, moving northwest. (New) * РБК-Україна corroborates "Kalibr" missiles in Kyiv Oblast, moving northwest. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports "Kalibrs" are fully replicating the course of strategic bomber missiles. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports several Kalibrs heading towards/through Khmelnytskyi/Krasyliv. (New) * Strategic Bomber Activity (TU-95MS): * НгП раZVедка reports strategic aviation aircraft have launched air-launched cruise missiles and that "it will be even more fun for the Khokhol (Ukrainians) by 4 AM." (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports missiles from strategic bombers are flying in northern Vinnytsia Oblast. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missiles on the Vinnytsia-Zhytomyr border, heading west. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports strategic bomber missiles from northern Vinnytsia Oblast changed course southwest into Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports some strategic bomber missiles are flying towards/through Krasyliv. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports all cruise missiles are moving west, located in Kyiv, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports strategic bomber missiles flying between Starokonstantyniv and Khmelnytskyi, heading west towards Ternopil Oblast. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports some missiles from Khmelnytskyi Oblast are flying towards Ternopil. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports several strategic bomber missiles approaching Zbarazh/Ternopil. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles entered Ternopil Oblast. (New) * РБК-Україна corroborates cruise missiles entering Ternopil Oblast. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports another missile approaching Ternopil. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports a missile from the southwest did not go to Ternopil but went towards/through Zolochiv, Lviv Oblast. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк clarifies 2 missiles are heading towards/through Zolochiv, Lviv Oblast. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a cruise missile south of Brodiv, heading north. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports 2 missiles flying past Brodiv, heading north, likely towards Lutsk. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк confirms these 2 strategic bomber missiles are heading to Lutsk. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles flying past Khmelnytskyi, heading northwest. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a cruise missile in Ternopil Oblast, probable western course. (New) * РБК-Україна reports a cruise missile heading towards Lutsk. (New) * Anticipation of Massive Russian Strikes: * РБК-Україна reports on the consequences of the Russian shelling of Kyiv, citing the State Emergency Service. (Previous) * КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports a residential building in Solomyanskyi district was hit, with one injured person. (Previous) * РБК-Україна reports a fire in a non-residential area in Shevchenkivskyi district due to Russian attack. (Previous) * КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) confirms a fire in a non-residential area in Shevchenkivskyi district. (Previous) * РБК-Україна reports one injured person in Solomyanskyi district, Kyiv. (Previous) * ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of "bursts of shots" over Kyiv. (Previous) * НгП раZVедка shares a photo claiming missiles are approaching Kyiv. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target from Belgorod. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports a cruise missile in the Lebedyn area, heading towards Poltava Oblast. (Previous) * ASTRA reports 3 injured in Kyiv after Russian attack, citing the Mayor. (Previous) * ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms 3 injured in Kyiv, two hospitalized, one treated on site, citing Mayor Klitschko. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles in Sumy Oblast heading south. (Previous) * РБК-Україна confirms 3 injured in Kyiv. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк clarifies there are 2 missiles, not 6. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missiles heading west. (Previous) * Colonelcassad reports continued missile and drone strikes on Kyiv. (Previous) * НгП раZVедка makes a provocative statement about a "Kinzhal" missile. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports all available missiles are currently flying towards/through Pryluky. (Previous) * РБК-Україна reports cruise missiles from Sumy Oblast are flying south and west, citing the Air Force. (Previous) * РБК-Україна reports debris falling on non-residential development in Holosiivskyi district. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles entering Chernihiv Oblast, heading towards Kyiv. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк provides a general update on mopeds. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports missiles have changed course and are flying towards/through Lubny. (Previous) * КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports ongoing rescue efforts in Solomyanskyi district, with a fire on the 11th floor of a 16-story residential building, and 3 people rescued from an 11th-floor apartment. (Previous) * РБК-Україна reports cruise missiles entering Chernihiv Oblast, heading towards Kyiv. (Previous) * КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports debris from downed drones and missiles in Holosiivskyi and Dniprovskyi districts, with no immediate consequences. (New) * НгП раZVедка questions why Ukrainians "set Kyiv on fire," implying Ukrainian responsibility for the damage. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles in Kyiv Oblast, south of Bila Tserkva, heading towards Vinnytsia. (New) * Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the massive Russian air attack on Kyiv Oblast continues, citing the OVA. (New) * РБК-Україна reports consequences of the attack have been recorded in three districts of Kyiv Oblast. (New) * НгП раZVедка provocatively claims the Darnytsia Thermal Power Plant is no longer needed by Ukrainians. (New) * НгП раZVедка threatens Lviv with incoming strikes. (New) * Оперативний ЗСУ reports metro tracks between Darnytsia and Livoberezhna stations in Kyiv damaged. (New) * РБК-Україна confirms metro track damage in Kyiv. (New) * Colonelcassad claims a Patriot air defense system in Kyiv was hit by a missile. (New) * НгП раZVедка reiterates the claim about a Patriot in Kyiv, adding "Kyiv itself is not needed." (New) * Bryansk Airport Attack (Confirmed): * ASTRA shares a video reporting a drone attack and fire at the Dyagilevo airbase in Ryazan district. (Previous) * РБК-Україна shares a video of a fire at the Dyagilevo airbase in Ryazan after a drone attack. (Previous) * ASTRA shares photos reporting explosions and a fire in Engels, Saratov Oblast, with local residents reporting a hit on a residential complex. (Previous) * ASTRA shares photos reporting a fire in the area of Podvyazye village, Ryazan Oblast, after a UAV attack. (Previous) * ASTRA shares photo/video confirming fire in Engels, Saratov Oblast, after a UAV attack. (New) * Оперативний ЗСУ shares video claiming a hit on an oil refinery in Engels. (New) * РБК-Україна shares a photo reporting a large fire at an industrial enterprise in Engels. (New) * ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure at Moscow's Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports, as reported by Rosaviatsia. (New) * ASTRA shares video showing the moment a drone flew over Saratov Oblast. (New) * ASTRA shares videos and photos of large smoke plumes and flashes in Engels, indicating significant fires and explosions. (New) * ASTRA shares video of a large fire on a ship or vessel in the Bay of Panske, Crimea, consistent with a Ukrainian drone attack on the tugboat "Saturn." (New) * ASTRA shares a video showing a large plume of black smoke in a residential area, with a woman stating, "Again the oil depot is burning... again people will die," and "The ambulances have gone." (New) * Colonelcassad claims no casualties in Engels after a drone hit a multi-story building, only facade damage. (New) * Оперативний ЗСУ shares video of a large black smoke plume in Podolsk, Moscow Oblast. (New) * ASTRA reports the Governor of Saratov Oblast confirming damage to a residential building in Engels with no casualties. (New) * ТАСС reports temporary restrictions at Vnukovo airport in Moscow. (New) * ASTRA shares another video of a bright flash and explosion in Engels, with a person stating, "There's a residential building that got hit." (New)

2. Frontline Dynamics and Ground Operations: * Russian Offensive on Sumy Confirmed (Rybar Map): * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs targeting Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. (New) * Russian claims of M119 howitzer destruction: * Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of an American M119 howitzer on the Krasnolymansky direction. (New)

3. Information Warfare and Internal Narratives: * Intensified US Political Infighting Amplified: * ТАСС reports that the conflict with Trump cost Musk $34 billion in one day, according to Bloomberg's Billionaires Index. (New) * Zvиздец Мангусту shares a photo message stating "Massive combined attack continues. The situation is dynamic. Also reports of an attack on AE Engels." (Previous) * НгП раZVедка shares a photo message with Ukrainian text about loud activity everywhere. (New) * ТАСС shares a video of a Russian fighter from "Normandy - Neman" drone unit claiming French people show sanity and don't succumb to anti-Russian propaganda. (New) * НгП раZVедка makes provocative statements about Khmelnytskyi and electricity not being needed in Ukraine. (New) * НгП раZVедка makes provocative statements about Ternopil "paying for all of Galicia" and warns Lviv of incoming strikes. (New)

Strategic Projections

The intelligence update reveals a continuously escalating and multi-faceted Russian aerial campaign, primarily targeting central and western Ukraine. The attack involves waves of Shahed drones and both sea-launched ("Kalibr") and air-launched (from strategic bombers) cruise missiles. Russian missile trajectories are dynamic, exhibiting frequent course changes, suggesting an attempt to evade and stretch Ukrainian air defenses. Key targets appear to be critical infrastructure and population centers in Ternopil, Lutsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, and possibly Lviv. The claims of a Patriot system hit in Kyiv and metro track damage indicate direct impacts on Kyiv's defensive and civilian infrastructure.

Simultaneously, Ukraine continues its deep strike operations into Russian territory, with confirmed large-scale fires and explosions at military and industrial sites in Engels (Saratov Oblast), a reported hit on a residential building in Engels (though Russia claims no casualties), and a naval drone attack on a Russian tugboat ("Saturn") in occupied Crimea. The temporary closure of Moscow airports (Domodedovo, Zhukovsky, Vnukovo) further confirms the scale and impact of Ukrainian drone activity directly targeting the Russian capital region.

Russian information warfare is actively framing these events, downplaying the damage from Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory while hyperbolically claiming Ukrainian responsibility for self-inflicted damage in Kyiv and making provocative statements about Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. This underscores the intense information battle accompanying the physical conflict.

Risk Assessment

• EXTREME Risk of Continued Massive Russian Missile and Drone Strikes: The current wave is ongoing, dynamic, and geographically expanding to central and western Ukraine. Critical infrastructure, population centers, and air defense assets in these regions are under severe threat. The targeting of metro infrastructure in Kyiv is a significant escalation impacting civilian life directly.
• HIGH Risk of Further Ukrainian Deep Strikes within Russia: The confirmed incidents in Engels, Crimea, and the impact on Moscow's air traffic demonstrate Ukraine's sustained capability and intent to strike deep into Russian territory, targeting military, energy, and logistical assets. This maintains pressure on Russia and forces resource allocation for homeland defense.
• SEVERE Risk to Civilian Infrastructure and Life: Confirmed damage to metro lines in Kyiv and reports of intense activity and impacts in Ternopil and Lutsk, combined with repeated threats against these cities, underscore the direct threat to civilian populations and essential services.
• Intensified Information Warfare and Propaganda: Russia's explicit claims about hitting a Patriot system and its inflammatory rhetoric ("Kyiv itself is not needed") aim to demoralize Ukrainians and sow discord. Ukraine must proactively counter these narratives with verified information.
• Naval Threat in Black Sea: The confirmed attack on the tugboat "Saturn" highlights the ongoing threat to Russian naval assets and logistical support in the Black Sea, further degrading Russia's naval presence and control.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Urgent Air Defense Prioritization: Immediate and aggressive deployment of air defense assets to cover key targets in central and western Ukraine, specifically Ternopil, Lutsk, Khmelnytskyi, and Lviv. Focus on maximizing interception rates for both cruise missiles and Shahed drones, especially given their shifting trajectories.
• Damage Control and Emergency Response: Rapid assessment of damage in affected areas, particularly Kyiv (metro infrastructure), Ternopil, and Lutsk. Prioritize search and rescue, firefighting, and emergency services for civilian populations.
• Public Information and Counter-Disinformation: Maintain transparent and timely communication with the public regarding the threats and successful defense measures. Actively counter Russian propaganda, particularly claims about Patriot hits and the downplaying of damage within Russia.
• Intelligence on Russian Strike Patterns: Continue intensive monitoring of Russian missile and drone launch sites, flight paths, and course changes to improve anticipation and interception strategies.
• International Coordination: Brief international partners on the continued intensity and expanding geographic scope of Russian attacks, emphasizing the urgent need for more advanced air defense systems and munitions. Highlight the continued effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strikes.