Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Fri Jun 6 00:58:44 2025)

Key Updates and Trends

1. Aerial Activity and Air Defense Responses: * "Geran" (Shahed) Activity Continues: * Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 new "mopeds" (Shaheds) approaching Ternopil (1 from east, 2 from south). (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 "mopeds" (Shaheds) over southern Kyiv and suburbs. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs in southeastern Kyiv. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports strike UAVs targeting Ternopil. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports the number of "mopeds" over Kyiv has reduced to 4. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports another "moped" flying towards Ternopil from the north. (Previous) * РБК-Україна reports repeated explosions in Lutsk. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports Ternopil is actively defending against 5 "mopeds," with 1 additional "moped" approaching from Khmelnytskyi Oblast. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 "mopeds" approaching/passing through Shepetivka, anticipating loud activity. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports successful interceptions ("minus") on 6 "mopeds" targeting Ternopil. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports successful interceptions ("minus") on 3 "mopeds" targeting Ternopil. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports a "moped" approaching Lutsk from the south, with anticipated air defense activity. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports Lutsk has successfully defended against the "moped" threat. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports a "moped" approaching Rivne, with anticipated air defense activity. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports successful interceptions ("minus") on "mopeds" targeting Chernihiv. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports Kyiv has successfully defended against "mopeds." (New) * НгП раZVедка claims dozens of drones are hitting targets in Ternopil, with additional impacts in Rivne Oblast. (New) * РБК-Україна reports a series of explosions in Ternopil. (New) * Colonelcassad shares photo/video claiming a strong fire in Ternopil after impacts. (New) * НгП раZVедка shares photo claiming "it's warm in Ternopil," indicating significant impacts. (New) * ТАСС and ASTRA report that Moscow Mayor Sobyanin confirmed 6 drones flying towards Moscow were destroyed by air defense, followed by reports of 3 more drones destroyed, bringing the total to 9. (New) * ASTRA reports readers from Naro-Fominsk, Moscow Oblast, reporting explosions. (New) * Colonelcassad reports that the drone attack in the direction of Moscow was repelled. (New) * Russian Naval Missile Threat Reaffirmed: * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Kalibr" cruise missile launches from the south. (Previous) * РБК-Україна confirms "Kalibr" launches from the south, citing the Air Force. (Previous) * ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports "Kalibr" launches. (Previous) * НгП раZVедка states that following air-launched missiles, sea-launched missiles have also taken off, and they are only missing OTRK (ballistic missiles) for the full package. (Previous) * STERNENKO confirms "Kalibr" launches. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports "Kalibr" launches from the Gelendzhik area. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles in Kherson Oblast. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports "Kalibrs" entering from Kherson Oblast, heading towards Snihurivka. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missiles changed course southward towards Cherkasy. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports at least 6 "Kalibrs" are in Ukrainian airspace, passing Snihurivka towards Bashtanka. (New) * РБК-Україна reports missiles changed course southward towards Cherkasy, citing the Air Force. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Kalibrs" in Mykolaiv Oblast heading northwest. (New) * РБК-Україна reports "Kalibrs" in Mykolaiv Oblast heading northwest, citing the Air Force. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports all "Kalibrs" are passing Bashtanka towards Pervomaisk. (New) * Николаевский Ванёк reports "Kalibrs" near Yelanka are moving into Kirovohrad Oblast, heading north. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Kalibr" cruise missiles from Mykolaiv Oblast entered Kirovohrad Oblast and are moving towards Cherkasy Oblast. (New) * Strategic Bomber Activity (TU-95MS): * НгП раZVедка reports strategic aviation aircraft have launched air-launched cruise missiles and that "it will be even more fun for the Khokhol (Ukrainians) by 4 AM." (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports missiles from strategic bombers are flying in northern Vinnytsia Oblast. (New) * Anticipation of Massive Russian Strikes: * РБК-Україна reports on the consequences of the Russian shelling of Kyiv, citing the State Emergency Service. (Previous) * КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports a residential building in Solomyanskyi district was hit, with one injured person. (Previous) * РБК-Україна reports a fire in a non-residential area in Shevchenkivskyi district due to Russian attack. (Previous) * КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) confirms a fire in a non-residential area in Shevchenkivskyi district. (Previous) * РБК-Україна reports one injured person in Solomyanskyi district, Kyiv. (Previous) * ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of "bursts of shots" over Kyiv. (Previous) * НгП раZVедка shares a photo claiming missiles are approaching Kyiv. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a high-speed target from Belgorod. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports a cruise missile in the Lebedyn area, heading towards Poltava Oblast. (Previous) * ASTRA reports 3 injured in Kyiv after Russian attack, citing the Mayor. (Previous) * ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms 3 injured in Kyiv, two hospitalized, one treated on site, citing Mayor Klitschko. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles in Sumy Oblast heading south. (Previous) * РБК-Україна confirms 3 injured in Kyiv. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк clarifies there are 2 missiles, not 6. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports missiles heading west. (Previous) * Colonelcassad reports continued missile and drone strikes on Kyiv. (Previous) * НгП раZVедка makes a provocative statement about a "Kinzhal" missile. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports all available missiles are currently flying towards/through Pryluky. (Previous) * РБК-Україна reports cruise missiles from Sumy Oblast are flying south and west, citing the Air Force. (Previous) * РБК-Україна reports debris falling on non-residential development in Holosiivskyi district. (Previous) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles entering Chernihiv Oblast, heading towards Kyiv. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк provides a general update on mopeds. (Previous) * Николаевский Ванёк reports missiles have changed course and are flying towards/through Lubny. (Previous) * КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports ongoing rescue efforts in Solomyanskyi district, with a fire on the 11th floor of a 16-story residential building, and 3 people rescued from an 11th-floor apartment. (Previous) * РБК-Україна reports cruise missiles entering Chernihiv Oblast, heading towards Kyiv. (Previous) * КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) reports debris from downed drones and missiles in Holosiivskyi and Dniprovskyi districts, with no immediate consequences. (New) * НгП раZVедка questions why Ukrainians "set Kyiv on fire," implying Ukrainian responsibility for the damage. (New) * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports cruise missiles in Kyiv Oblast, south of Bila Tserkva, heading towards Vinnytsia. (New) * Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the massive Russian air attack on Kyiv Oblast continues, citing the OVA. (New) * РБК-Україна reports consequences of the attack have been recorded in three districts of Kyiv Oblast. (New) * НгП раZVедка provocatively claims the Darnytsia Thermal Power Plant is no longer needed by Ukrainians. (New) * НгП раZVедка threatens Lviv with incoming strikes. (New) * Bryansk Airport Attack (Confirmed): * ASTRA shares a video reporting a drone attack and fire at the Dyagilevo airbase in Ryazan district. (Previous) * РБК-Україна shares a video of a fire at the Dyagilevo airbase in Ryazan after a drone attack. (Previous) * ASTRA shares photos reporting explosions and a fire in Engels, Saratov Oblast, with local residents reporting a hit on a residential complex. (Previous) * ASTRA shares photos reporting a fire in the area of Podvyazye village, Ryazan Oblast, after a UAV attack. (Previous) * ASTRA shares photo/video confirming fire in Engels, Saratov Oblast, after a UAV attack. (New) * Оперативний ЗСУ shares video claiming a hit on an oil refinery in Engels. (New) * РБК-Україна shares a photo reporting a large fire at an industrial enterprise in Engels. (New) * ТАСС reports temporary restrictions on aircraft reception and departure at Moscow's Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports, as reported by Rosaviatsia. (New) * ASTRA shares video showing the moment a drone flew over Saratov Oblast. (New)

2. Frontline Dynamics and Ground Operations: * Russian Offensive on Sumy Confirmed (Rybar Map): * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports KABs targeting Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. (New)

3. Information Warfare and Internal Narratives: * Intensified US Political Infighting Amplified: * ТАСС reports that the conflict with Trump cost Musk $34 billion in one day, according to Bloomberg's Billionaires Index. (New) * Zvиздец Мангусту shares a photo message stating "Massive combined attack continues. The situation is dynamic. Also reports of an attack on AE Engels." (Previous)

Strategic Projections

The current intelligence update reinforces the ongoing massive, multi-pronged Russian aerial assault across Ukraine. This includes continued waves of Shahed drones (targeting Ternopil, Lutsk, Rivne, Shepetivka, and previously Kyiv, with successful interceptions reported for some), and simultaneous launches of sea-launched "Kalibr" cruise missiles. The "Kalibrs" are actively maneuvering through Ukrainian airspace, moving from Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad Oblasts towards Cherkasy, and from strategic bombers into northern Vinnytsia Oblast. This complex, shifting attack pattern is designed to overwhelm and exhaust Ukrainian air defenses, suggesting a strategic objective beyond simple punitive strikes. Kyiv remains a primary target, with ongoing debris falls, fires, and confirmed casualties (3 injured). The Russian narrative continues to aggressively claim hits on critical infrastructure like the Darnytsia Thermal Power Plant, though this remains unconfirmed by Ukrainian sources.

Crucially, Ukrainian deep strike capabilities continue to demonstrate effectiveness against Russian military and industrial targets. New reports and visual evidence confirm major fires and explosions at the Dyagilevo airbase in Ryazan and an industrial enterprise/oil refinery in Engels, Saratov Oblast, both key strategic locations. This underscores Ukraine's persistent ability to project force deep into Russian territory, disrupting strategic aviation and energy infrastructure. The reported drone attacks on Moscow, leading to airport restrictions and multiple interceptions, indicate a broadened area of Ukrainian operations or an intensified direct targeting of the Russian capital.

Russian information warfare is actively framing these incidents, claiming Ukrainian responsibility for the damage in Kyiv, while downplaying or misrepresenting the extent of damage from Ukrainian strikes inside Russia (e.g., claiming "barns" are burning in Ryazan). The internal US political drama surrounding Elon Musk and Donald Trump continues to be amplified by Russian state media, suggesting an ongoing effort to sow discord and undermine Western unity.

Risk Assessment

• EXTREME Risk of Continued Massive Russian Missile and Drone Strikes: The current wave of attacks is ongoing and highly dynamic, with missiles changing course to evade defenses. All regions, particularly central and western Ukraine, are under severe threat. Civilian casualties and damage to residential and critical infrastructure remain the primary concern.
• HIGH Risk of Further Ukrainian Deep Strikes within Russia: The confirmed incidents at Ryazan and Engels, and ongoing drone activity over Moscow, indicate a sustained Ukrainian strategy to degrade Russian military and industrial capabilities. This carries a reciprocal risk of further Russian retaliation.
• Persistent Threat to Civilian Infrastructure: The confirmed impacts in Kyiv, and explosions reported in Ternopil, Lutsk, and Rivne (attributed to drones/missiles), highlight the continued targeting of civilian areas and the potential for widespread damage and casualties.
• Increased Airspace Restrictions in Russia: The temporary closure of Moscow airports suggests a significant increase in Ukrainian drone activity targeting the Russian capital, impacting civilian aviation.
• Intensified Information Warfare: Russia will continue to exploit and amplify events, including those within Ukraine and internal political divisions in the US, to demoralize Ukrainians and sow confusion among allies.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Prioritize Air Defense: Immediately assess and redeploy air defense assets to counter the shifting trajectories of cruise and ballistic missiles, particularly to critical infrastructure and population centers in central and western Ukraine. Maximize interception rates for both drones and missiles.
• Damage Assessment and Emergency Response: Ensure rapid and comprehensive assessment of impacts, especially in Kyiv and Ternopil, and deploy emergency services for rescue operations, firefighting, and medical aid.
• Information Counter-Offensive: Proactively disseminate accurate information on Russian war crimes and the effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strikes. Counter Russian disinformation regarding targets and casualties within Ukraine. Emphasize the resilience of Ukrainian defenses and the reality of Russian aggression.
• Intelligence Gathering on Russian Intentions: Maintain intensive monitoring of Russian strategic aviation, naval movements, and missile launch preparations to anticipate the next phase of the current attack and future operations. Analyze Russian public messaging for insights into their strategic objectives.
• International Coordination: Immediately brief international partners on the scale and nature of the ongoing Russian attacks, reinforcing the urgent need for advanced air defense systems, munitions, and continued support. Highlight the success of Ukrainian deep strikes and the strategic implications for continued aid.