Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Sun Jun 01 14:16:25 2025)

Major Updates

• Ukrainian Deep Strike Operations - "Web" Operation Confirmed & Russian Counter-Measures Evolving:

  • Visual Evidence & Drone Tactic Confirmation (Continued): STERNENKO continues to release "exclusive video" of SBU FPV drone operations against Russian strategic aviation, including drone's-eye view of a burning aircraft and a "FAILSAFE" message during attack, suggesting high-risk, close-quarters engagement. Alex Parker Returns (Russian source) continues to corroborate the "fura" (disguised civilian truck) launch method, lamenting that "conclusions were not drawn by anyone." Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, and Два майора (Russian sources) further confirm this by showing videos of "ordinary men" attempting to stop drones launching from trucks with bare hands, stones, and sticks near an airfield in Irkutsk Oblast, underscoring the severity of Russia's internal security failures and civilian involvement in direct counter-drone efforts.
  • Strategic Planning Further Highlighted: STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publish photos of SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk overseeing "Web" operation planning, often with maps of airfields, including named targets like Olenya (Murmansk) and Belaya (Irkutsk). This reinforces the high-level coordination and detailed planning behind these strikes.
  • Moscow Oblast Strike Confirmed by ASTRA: ASTRA reports and provides video of smoke rising near Voskresensk in Moscow Oblast, consistent with the claimed fifth airfield hit.
  • Russian Deep Strike Interdiction Claims & Counter-Narratives: Multiple Russian and Ukrainian sources (Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad, Операція Z, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ) now report and show videos of a "fura" with drones catching fire and exploding near Seryshevo, Amur Oblast, en route to the "Ukrainka" air base. This indicates a potential Ukrainian "self-destruction" mechanism or a successful Russian interdiction, though details remain unclear. The event is framed by Russian sources as a failed Ukrainian deep strike, while Ukrainian sources highlight it as a successful operation, with one stating "Self-destruction systems work perfectly." This suggests Ukraine may have deliberately destroyed the vehicle to prevent capture or to deny Russia intelligence.
  • Russian Reaction & Measures (Continued): TASS confirms a "high alert regime" and "operational-investigative measures" in Priangarye (Irkutsk Oblast) following drone attacks, and the creation of a regional government-based headquarters. Governor of Murmansk Oblast denies reports of explosions in Severomorsk, potentially related to previous deep strike claims, though this denial is contradicted by other reports of a "fura" being intercepted near Murmansk.
  • Russian Information Warfare: Russian sources (Два майора, Старше Эдды, Рыбарь) are pushing the narrative that these sophisticated deep strikes were orchestrated by "the British," arguing "Ukrainians are too stupid" to execute such operations. This reflects a clear attempt to diminish Ukrainian capabilities and shift blame, even while acknowledging the attacks' severity.

• High-Level Ukrainian Military Resignation Update (Confirmed & Amplified by Russia):

  • Cause Clarified by Ukrainian Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS specifies that General Mykhailo Drapatyi's resignation was due to "a Russian strike on the location of Ukrainian military personnel in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast," rather than a general training ground incident.
  • DeepState Provides Alternative Reason: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 claims Drapatyi resigned due to "the system of circular responsibility and impunity that cannot be eradicated from the Ground Forces," suggesting a broader systemic issue rather than a single incident.
  • Russian Confirmation & Framing (Amplified): TASS now also reports on Drapatyi's resignation "after the strike on the AFU training unit," directly linking it to a recent, successful Russian strike, reinforcing their narrative of Ukrainian military setbacks.

• Renewed Dialogue between Ukraine and Russia Confirmed for June 2nd:

  • Turkish Facilitation: TASS, citing a source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry, and РБК-Україна confirm that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are planned for June 2nd at 13:00 in the Chiragan Palace in Istanbul. This re-engagement, even at an early stage, is a significant diplomatic development.
  • Ukrainian Proposal: Alex Parker Returns and РБК-Україна (citing Reuters) report that Ukraine intends to propose a 30-day ceasefire with a complete cessation of fire and a new prisoner exchange during these talks. This proposal is a clear Ukrainian initiative to de-escalate and secure humanitarian gains.

• Russian Claims of Storm Shadow Strike on Krasnodon (LNR): TASS reports that Ukrainian Armed Forces struck an industrial zone in Krasnodon (LNR) with Storm Shadow missiles, causing casualties. Photos provided show damaged buildings and what appears to be missile debris.

• Russian Claims of "Iskander-M" Strike on UAV Launch Site in Kharkiv: MoD Russia releases video claiming an Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system crew hit an AFU long-range fixed-wing UAV launch site in Kharkiv region. The video shows an aerial strike on a military base with an airstrip and aircraft.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

• Donetsk Oblast: Воин DV reiterates claims of "liberation" of Novopol, supported by new video. Colonelcassad claims "Rusichi" assault detachment entered the central part of Dyleevka (Dzerzhinsk front).
• Chernihiv Oblast: Possible Ukrainian air defense activity between Koriukivka and Kholmy.
• Sumy Oblast: Continued KAB launches.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Confirmed Russian strike on Ukrainian military location, leading to General Drapatyi's resignation.
• Luhansk Oblast: TASS reports Storm Shadow missile strike on an industrial zone in Krasnodon, causing casualties.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Russian MoD claims Iskander-M strike on a Ukrainian long-range UAV launch site.

Aerial & Naval Activity

• Ukrainian Deep Operations (Further Developments):
  • Visual Confirmation & Tactic Validation (Continued): New SBU FPV drone footage directly shows strikes on strategic aircraft, including a "FAILSAFE" indicating close engagement. Russian sources explicitly confirm and detail the "fura" (disguised civilian truck) launch method for deep strikes, with videos of civilians attempting to interfere, confirming the innovative and difficult-to-counter nature of these operations.
  • SBU Head's Direct Involvement: Photos of Vasyl Maliuk (Head of SBU) planning "Web" operations with airfield maps emphasize the high-level Ukrainian commitment and operational expertise, including targets like Olenya and Belaya air bases.
  • Amur Oblast "Fura" Incident: Multiple sources confirm a "fura" transporting drones caught fire and exploded near Seryshevo, Amur Oblast, reportedly en route to "Ukrainka" air base. This is a significant development, either a Russian interception or a Ukrainian deliberate self-destruction.
  • Expanded Acknowledged Targets: ASTRA's video of smoke near Voskresensk confirms the claimed strike in Moscow Oblast.
  • Russian Security Failures: The inability of Russian security forces to prevent "fura" launches, and the desperate attempts by civilians to interfere, highlight significant vulnerabilities in Russia's internal security and counter-drone measures.
  • Ukrainian Claim of Strategic Air Fleet Damage: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС claims that "for the first time in world history, the main forces of strategic aviation, nuclear weapons carriers, were defeated directly at their bases by a group drone strike," highlighting the perceived strategic impact of "Web" operations.
• Russian Aerial Activity:
  • Continued KAB Launches: Active KAB strikes on Sumy and Donetsk regions persist.
  • Russian Denial: Governor of Murmansk Oblast denies reports of explosions in Severomorsk, potentially related to previous deep strike claims.
  • Claimed "Iskander-M" Strike: Russian MoD claims successful strike on a Ukrainian long-range UAV launch site in Kharkiv region.

Strategic Projections

The most critical developments continue to center on the confirmed Ukrainian deep strike campaign, "Web," targeting Russian strategic aviation. The ongoing release of SBU FPV drone footage, directly showing strikes on aircraft, coupled with explicit Russian (including civilian) confirmation of the "fura" launch method and attempts to counter them, fundamentally validates Ukraine's innovative and highly effective long-range strike capabilities. The new intelligence regarding a "fura" fire/explosion in Amur Oblast, possibly en route to a strategic airbase, indicates Russia's escalating counter-measures or a deliberate Ukrainian self-destruction protocol. Regardless, it underscores the persistent threat Ukraine poses to Russia's deep rear. The Russian narrative attempting to attribute these successes to "the British" while simultaneously acknowledging their impact reveals internal contradictions and a desperate attempt to manage the information space.

The resignation of General Mykhailo Drapatyi, Commander of the Ground Forces, now explicitly linked to a Russian strike on Ukrainian military personnel in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by Ukrainian sources, and attributed to a "system of circular responsibility and impunity" by DeepState, highlights significant internal challenges within the Ukrainian military leadership. The amplification of this event by Russian sources demonstrates their intent to leverage it as a propaganda victory, signaling Ukrainian "failures." This incident, regardless of the precise underlying reason, reflects a serious setback and could impact morale and command stability, though the value placed on Drapatyi suggests efforts to retain experienced leadership.

The confirmation of new Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul for June 2nd, with Ukraine proposing a 30-day ceasefire and prisoner exchange, marks a crucial diplomatic shift. This initiative, if genuine, could signal a potential de-escalation path, or it could be a Russian attempt to gain time or information. Ukraine's proactive proposal suggests a desire to reduce hostilities and secure humanitarian outcomes, potentially also to secure a respite from ongoing Russian pressure.

The reported Storm Shadow strike on Krasnodon (LNR) indicates Ukraine's continued ability to target critical infrastructure in occupied territories with advanced Western weaponry. Concurrently, Russia's claim of an Iskander-M strike on a Ukrainian UAV launch site in Kharkiv highlights their ongoing efforts to degrade Ukrainian offensive capabilities.

The persistent Russian KAB attacks on Sumy and Donetsk, combined with renewed claims of Russian advances on the Donetsk front (Novopol, Dyleevka), indicate continued ground pressure and aerial bombardment as Russia seeks to achieve localized gains and degrade Ukrainian defenses. The rapid deployment of Russian "high alert" and investigative measures in response to the deep strikes signals a reactive but widespread internal security effort within Russia.

Risk Assessment

• Increased Russian Retaliation (Confirmed): The validated deep strikes and the public humiliation of Russian security failures will almost certainly lead to sustained and potentially intensified Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian targets.
• Internal Russian Instability/Repression (High): The detailed exposure of the "fura" launch method and civilian involvement will likely lead to a significant increase in internal security measures, potentially arbitrary arrests, and more aggressive crackdowns on perceived collaborators or even ordinary citizens within Russia. The previous unconfirmed report of a strangled driver of a "fura" remains a grave concern, and the Amur Oblast incident suggests a more aggressive Russian posture in preventing such operations.
• Ukrainian Command Stability (Moderate): While Drapatyi's resignation is significant, the nature of the incident (Russian strike on training ground) and the varying explanations suggest a complex internal dynamic. The immediate impact on front-line operations needs close monitoring. Russian exploitation of this event for propaganda is a key risk.
• Information Warfare Intensification: Both sides will double down on their narratives. Russia will likely amplify claims of Ukrainian "terrorism" and foreign involvement, while Ukraine will continue to highlight its operational successes and Russian vulnerabilities. The Amur Oblast "fura" incident provides new fodder for competing narratives.
• Fragile Diplomatic Opportunities: The upcoming negotiations in Istanbul offer a potential, albeit fragile, opportunity for de-escalation and prisoner exchanges. However, the risk of Russia using these talks for propaganda or to extract concessions remains high. Monitoring Russian sincerity and Ukraine's firmness in negotiations is critical.
• Continued Russian Aerial Pressure: The ongoing KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk confirm Russia's intent to maintain aerial bombardment to soften Ukrainian defenses and disrupt logistics.
• Logistical Challenges for Ukraine: The "fura" incident in Amur Oblast, whether a self-destruction or Russian interdiction, indicates that the logistics and security of deep strike operations are under increasing threat.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Immediate Assessment and Adaptation of Deep Strike Tactics: While highly successful, the public revelation and Russian counter-measures regarding the "fura" launch method necessitate immediate assessment and adaptation of deep strike tactics to preserve their effectiveness and protect personnel involved. Analyze the Amur Oblast incident to determine if it was a self-destruction or successful Russian interdiction, and adjust protocols accordingly.
• Strategic Communications on Command Stability: Ukraine should proactively manage the narrative around General Drapatyi's resignation, emphasizing transparency regarding the incident and continuity of command, to counter Russian information operations and mitigate morale impact.
• Prioritize Air Defense in Vulnerable Regions: Given continued KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk, and the high likelihood of increased Russian retaliation, ensure critical air defense assets are strategically deployed and supplied with sufficient ammunition.
• Exploitation of Russian Internal Security Weaknesses: Continue to identify and exploit weaknesses in Russia's internal security apparatus, particularly regarding the movement of assets and the protection of strategic targets, while factoring in the increased Russian vigilance and counter-measures.
• Monitoring Russian Internal Response: Intensify intelligence gathering on Russia's internal security responses to the deep strikes, including any confirmed detentions, crackdowns, or alleged liquidations related to the "fura" operations. This intel is crucial for understanding Russian domestic vulnerabilities and for informing future covert operations.
• Ground Force Resilience and Morale: Assess and mitigate any potential impact of the General Drapatyi resignation on the morale and cohesion of the Ground Forces, ensuring leadership transitions are smooth and support systems for personnel remain robust.
• Diplomatic Engagement Strategy: Prepare a comprehensive strategy for the Istanbul talks, clearly defining red lines for ceasefire terms and prisoner exchange mechanisms. Leverage the proposal for a ceasefire to gain international moral high ground and potentially a tactical respite.
• Counter-UAV Strike Capabilities: Evaluate the effectiveness of Russian counter-UAV measures, specifically the claimed Iskander-M strike on a UAV launch site, to understand and counter Russian capabilities in targeting Ukrainian drone infrastructure.