Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Sun Jun 01 13:46:25 2025)

Major Updates

• Ukrainian Deep Strike Operations - "Web" Operation Confirmed & Counter-Measures Observed:

  • New Visual Evidence & Drone Tactic Confirmation: STERNENKO provides "exclusive video" of SBU FPV drone operations against Russian strategic aviation, including drone's-eye view of a burning aircraft and a "FAILSAFE" message during attack, suggesting high-risk, close-quarters engagement. Alex Parker Returns (Russian source) corroborates the "fura" (disguised civilian truck) launch method with photos of a detained Gazelle van in Moscow region allegedly containing a "drone launch system and mobile control center," lamenting that "conclusions were not drawn by anyone." Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, and Два майора (Russian sources) further confirm this by showing videos of "ordinary men" attempting to stop drones launching from trucks with bare hands, stones, and sticks near an airfield in Irkutsk Oblast, underscoring the severity of Russia's internal security failures and civilian involvement in direct counter-drone efforts.
  • Strategic Planning Further Highlighted: STERNENKO, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS publish photos of SBU Head Vasyl Maliuk overseeing "Web" operation planning, often with maps of airfields, including named targets like Olenya (Murmansk). This reinforces the high-level coordination and detailed planning behind these strikes.
  • Moscow Oblast Strike Confirmed by ASTRA: ASTRA reports and provides video of smoke rising near Voskresensk in Moscow Oblast, consistent with the claimed fifth airfield hit.
  • Russian Reaction & Measures: TASS confirms a "high alert regime" and "operational-investigative measures" in Priangarye (Irkutsk Oblast) following drone attacks, and the creation of a regional government-based headquarters. This demonstrates the localized, reactive measures Russia is implementing.
  • Russian Information Warfare: Russian sources (Два майора, Старше Эдды, Рыбарь) are pushing the narrative that these sophisticated deep strikes were orchestrated by "the British," arguing "Ukrainians are too stupid" to execute such operations. This reflects a clear attempt to diminish Ukrainian capabilities and shift blame, even while acknowledging the attacks' severity.

• High-Level Ukrainian Military Resignation Update:

  • Cause Clarified by Ukrainian Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS specifies that General Mykhailo Drapatyi's resignation was due to "a Russian strike on the location of Ukrainian military personnel in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast," rather than a general training ground incident.
  • DeepState Provides Alternative Reason: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 claims Drapatyi resigned due to "the system of circular responsibility and impunity that cannot be eradicated from the Ground Forces," suggesting a broader systemic issue rather than a single incident.
  • Russian Confirmation & Framing: Операция Z (Russian) confirms Drapatyi's resignation "after today's strike on the location of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," directly linking it to a recent, successful Russian strike.

• Ongoing Russian Aerial Activity over Ukraine: Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, and possible air defense activity near Koriukivka and Kholmy (Chernihiv Oblast).

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

• Donetsk Oblast: Воин DV reports on the "South-Donetsk direction." Colonelcassad claims "Rusichi" assault detachment entered the central part of Dyleevka (Dzerzhinsk front).
• Chernihiv Oblast: Possible Ukrainian air defense activity between Koriukivka and Kholmy.
• Sumy Oblast: Continued KAB launches.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Confirmed Russian strike on Ukrainian military location, leading to General Drapatyi's resignation.

Aerial & Naval Activity

• Ukrainian Deep Operations (Further Developments):
  • Visual Confirmation & Tactic Validation: New SBU FPV drone footage directly shows strikes on strategic aircraft, including a "FAILSAFE" indicating close engagement. Russian sources explicitly confirm and detail the "fura" (disguised civilian truck) launch method for deep strikes, with videos of civilians attempting to interfere, confirming the innovative and difficult-to-counter nature of these operations.
  • SBU Head's Direct Involvement: Photos of Vasyl Maliuk (Head of SBU) planning "Web" operations with airfield maps emphasize the high-level Ukrainian commitment and operational expertise.
  • Expanded Acknowledged Targets: ASTRA's video of smoke near Voskresensk confirms the claimed strike in Moscow Oblast.
  • Russian Security Failures: The inability of Russian security forces to prevent "fura" launches, and the desperate attempts by civilians to interfere, highlight significant vulnerabilities in Russia's internal security and counter-drone measures.
• Russian Aerial Activity:
  • Continued KAB Launches: Active KAB strikes on Sumy and Donetsk regions persist.
  • Russian Denial: Governor of Murmansk Oblast denies reports of explosions in Severomorsk, potentially related to previous deep strike claims.

Strategic Projections

The most critical developments center on the continued and visually corroborated Ukrainian deep strike campaign, "Web," targeting Russian strategic aviation. The release of SBU FPV drone footage, directly showing strikes on aircraft, coupled with explicit Russian (including civilian) confirmation of the "fura" launch method and attempts to counter them, fundamentally validates Ukraine's innovative and highly effective long-range strike capabilities. This underscores a severe and persistent vulnerability in Russia's internal security and strategic air defense. The Russian narrative attempting to attribute these successes to "the British" while simultaneously acknowledging their impact reveals internal contradictions and a desperate attempt to manage the information space.

The resignation of General Mykhailo Drapatyi, Commander of the Ground Forces, now explicitly linked to a Russian strike on Ukrainian military personnel in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by Ukrainian sources, and attributed to a "system of circular responsibility and impunity" by DeepState, highlights significant internal challenges within the Ukrainian military leadership. This incident, regardless of the precise underlying reason, reflects a serious setback and could impact morale and command stability, though the value placed on Drapatyi suggests efforts to retain experienced leadership. Russian sources are leveraging this resignation as evidence of Ukrainian "failures."

The persistent Russian KAB attacks on Sumy and Donetsk, combined with renewed claims of Russian advances on the Donetsk front (Dyleevka), indicate continued ground pressure and aerial bombardment as Russia seeks to achieve localized gains and degrade Ukrainian defenses. The rapid deployment of Russian "high alert" and investigative measures in response to the deep strikes signals a reactive but widespread internal security effort within Russia.

Risk Assessment

• Increased Russian Retaliation (Confirmed): The validated deep strikes and the public humiliation of Russian security failures will almost certainly lead to sustained and potentially intensified Russian retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian targets.
• Internal Russian Instability/Repression (High): The detailed exposure of the "fura" launch method and civilian involvement will likely lead to a significant increase in internal security measures, potentially arbitrary arrests, and more aggressive crackdowns on perceived collaborators or even ordinary citizens within Russia. The previous unconfirmed report of a strangled driver of a "fura" remains a grave concern.
• Ukrainian Command Stability (Moderate): While Drapatyi's resignation is significant, the nature of the incident (Russian strike on training ground) and the varying explanations suggest a complex internal dynamic. The immediate impact on front-line operations needs close monitoring.
• Information Warfare Intensification: Both sides will double down on their narratives. Russia will likely amplify claims of Ukrainian "terrorism" and foreign involvement, while Ukraine will continue to highlight its operational successes and Russian vulnerabilities.
• Continued Russian Aerial Pressure: The ongoing KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk confirm Russia's intent to maintain aerial bombardment to soften Ukrainian defenses and disrupt logistics.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Enhanced Counter-Intelligence and Security on "Fura" Operations: While highly successful, the public revelation and Russian counter-measures regarding the "fura" launch method necessitate immediate assessment and adaptation of deep strike tactics to preserve their effectiveness and protect personnel involved.
• Strategic Communications on Command Stability: Ukraine should proactively manage the narrative around General Drapatyi's resignation, emphasizing transparency regarding the incident and continuity of command, to counter Russian information operations.
• Prioritize Air Defense in Vulnerable Regions: Given continued KAB launches on Sumy and Donetsk, and the high likelihood of increased Russian retaliation, ensure critical air defense assets are strategically deployed and supplied with sufficient ammunition.
• Exploitation of Russian Internal Security Weaknesses: Continue to identify and exploit weaknesses in Russia's internal security apparatus, particularly regarding the movement of assets and the protection of strategic targets.
• Monitoring Russian Internal Response: Intensify intelligence gathering on Russia's internal security responses to the deep strikes, including any confirmed detentions, crackdowns, or alleged liquidations related to the "fura" operations. This intel is crucial for understanding Russian domestic vulnerabilities and for informing future covert operations.
• Ground Force Resilience and Morale: Assess and mitigate any potential impact of the General Drapatyi resignation on the morale and cohesion of the Ground Forces, ensuring leadership transitions are smooth and support systems for personnel remain robust.