Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated as of Sun Jun 01 13:16:25 2025)

Major Updates

• Ukrainian Deep Strike Operations - "Web" Operation Further Detailed and Claimed Successes:

  • Strategic Planning Confirmed: Multiple Ukrainian sources (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, ASTRA) continue to confirm and provide visual evidence (photos of drone components/assembly) that the SBU "Web" special operation targeting Russian strategic aviation was prepared for over 1.5 years. This underscores a highly sophisticated and long-term intelligence and operational effort.
  • Claimed Aircraft Damage: STERNENKO and БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС claim the operation "hit at least 41 aircraft of Russian strategic aviation." This is a significant claim that, if verified, would represent a substantial degradation of Russia's strategic bomber fleet.
  • New Targeted Airfield Claim: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and РБК-Україна claim a fifth airfield, "Voskresensk" in the Moscow Oblast, was hit. This expands the geographical reach and target set of the deep strikes. Unconfirmed video from Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS show smoke, allegedly from Voskresensk.
  • Irkutsk Airbase Visuals: ASTRA and Оперативний ЗСУ publish what they claim are "footage of the consequences of Ukrainian strikes on the Belaya airfield in Irkutsk Oblast," showing smoke plumes. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS explicitly claims confirmation of "the destruction of 3 more Tu-95MS aircraft" at Belaya Airbase. This, if verified, directly substantiates high-value asset damage.
  • "Fura" Drone Launch Tactics Corroborated by Russia: Alex Parker Returns, a Russian source, explicitly details the "fura" (disguised civilian truck) launch method, confirming that "Ukrainians moved FPV drones illegally into Russia, and then mobile wooden houses. In Russia, drones were hidden under the roofs of these structures, located on trucks. At the right moment, the roofs were opened remotely, and the drones flew to their targets." This Russian admission is a significant corroboration of Ukraine's innovative and effective deep strike methodology, and the severe internal security implications for Russia. The Russian source also criticizes Russian intelligence services for failing to prevent this.
  • Russian Reaction: WarGonzo, a prominent Russian milblogger, states "Ukraine attacked strategic aviation airfields in Russia," indicating the seriousness with which Russia views these attacks. The Governor of Buryatia (region near Irkutsk) confirmed increased security measures due to drone attacks.
  • Ukrainian Morale Boost: Ukrainian channels (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц") express strong confidence, with one stating, "After such an operation, the Alliance should apply to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine," highlighting the perceived success and impact.

• High-Level Ukrainian Military Resignation:

  • Ground Forces Commander Resigns: General Mykhailo Drapatyi, Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has submitted his resignation (STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad).
  • Reason for Resignation: Drapatyi cites "my personal sense of responsibility for the tragedy at the 239th training ground, as a result of which our soldiers died." This indicates a recent, significant incident involving troop casualties during training.
  • Reaction: STERNENKO expresses hope that the high command will not approve Drapatyi's resignation, suggesting his value to the Ukrainian military. Colonelcassad (Russian) frames the resignation as "officially resigned and took responsibility for the recent failures of the Armed Forces at the front," attempting to link it to battlefield setbacks rather than the specific training incident.

• Ongoing Russian Aerial Activity over Ukraine: Ukrainian Air Force reports continued KAB launches on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts, indicating persistent Russian air pressure. Russian reconnaissance UAVs are also active near Chuhuiv and Balakliya (Kharkiv Oblast).

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

• Kharkiv Oblast: Continued KAB launches on eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Russian reconnaissance UAVs active near Chuhuiv and Balakliya.
• Sumy Oblast: Continued KAB launches.
• Donetsk Oblast: Continued KAB launches.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Colonelcassad (Russian) claims "the enemy announced the evacuation of the population in 14 settlements of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The front is approaching. Battles in the territory of the region itself will begin this summer." This reflects Russian information operations attempting to project an imminent offensive and psychological pressure.

Aerial & Naval Activity

• Ukrainian Deep Operations (Further Developments):
  • Confirmed Targets (Expanded): Belaya Airbase (Irkutsk), Olenya Airbase (Murmansk), Dyagilevo Airbase (Ryazan), Ivanovo Airbase (Ivanovo), Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, and now Voskresensk Airfield (Moscow Oblast) claimed.
  • Strategic Impact Claim: Ukraine claims to have hit "at least 41 strategic aviation aircraft" of Russia.
  • Direct Damage Substantiation (Claimed): Ukraine claims destruction of "3 more Tu-95MS aircraft" at Belaya Airbase (Irkutsk).
  • Tactical Confirmation: Russian sources (Alex Parker Returns) provide explicit details and complaints about the "fura" (disguised civilian truck) launch method, confirming Ukrainian claims and highlighting Russian internal security failures.
  • Strategic Planning: Ukrainian sources (SBU) reiterate that the operation against strategic aviation, dubbed "Web," was prepared for over 1.5 years, emphasizing its methodical and long-term nature. Photos circulated by both sides show drone components and assembly, supporting the scale of the operation.
  • Russian Response to Deep Strikes: Buryatia (neighboring Irkutsk Oblast) has increased security measures due to drone attacks. Russian milbloggers acknowledge the attacks on strategic airfields.
• Russian Aerial Activity:
  • Continued KAB Launches: Active KAB strikes on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions.
  • Reconnaissance UAVs: Russian reconnaissance UAVs observed in Kharkiv Oblast.

Strategic Projections

The most significant developments are the Ukrainian claims of hitting a fifth Russian airfield (Voskresensk in Moscow Oblast) and destroying additional Tu-95MS aircraft at Belaya Airbase (Irkutsk), coupled with the bold claim of impacting "at least 41 strategic aviation aircraft." If these claims are substantiated by independent verification, this operation represents an unprecedented degradation of Russia's long-range strategic bomber fleet, potentially impacting Russia's conventional strike capabilities and its nuclear deterrence posture. The Russian confirmation and detailed lamentations regarding the "fura" launch tactics further solidify Ukraine's innovative and highly effective deep strike methodology, demonstrating a severe and persistent vulnerability in Russia's internal security and air defense.

The resignation of General Mykhailo Drapatyi due to the "tragedy at the 239th training ground" highlights a significant internal military incident within Ukraine. While the full details are not yet known, it suggests a substantial loss of life or a critical failure that prompted a high-level commander to take personal responsibility. This could have implications for command stability and morale within the Ukrainian Ground Forces, though the calls for his resignation not to be accepted indicate his perceived value. Russia's attempt to frame this as a general "failure on the front" is a clear information operation.

The continued diplomatic track in Istanbul remains a key parallel development, with the Russian delegation confirming its departure. The military escalation via deep strikes and ongoing ground pressure continues to exert leverage, even as Russia tries to control the narrative regarding the extent of damage and blame.

Risk Assessment

• Escalated Russian Retaliation (Increased Certainty): The repeated successful deep strikes on strategic airfields and claims of significant aircraft damage will almost certainly provoke a severe and widespread Russian retaliatory campaign against Ukrainian cities and military infrastructure, potentially with new target sets or increased intensity, even beyond the previously reported 479 air targets.
• Increased Internal Russian Security Measures & Repression: The detailed Russian acknowledgment of the "fura" launch method will lead to a significant crackdown on internal dissent, increased surveillance, and potentially violent responses against perceived collaborators or even innocent civilians involved in such deep strike logistics, as suggested by the previous unconfirmed report of the strangled driver.
• Ukrainian Command Stability: While Drapatyi's resignation is stated as personal responsibility for a training incident, any high-level military leadership change during active combat carries inherent risks to command stability and operational continuity.
• Information Warfare Escalation: Russia will intensify its narrative of Ukrainian "terrorism" and attempt to downplay or deny the impact of the deep strikes, while Ukraine will amplify its successes to bolster morale and international support.
• Negotiation Instability: The concurrent military escalation and high-level internal military issues for both sides could make any meaningful progress in Istanbul highly fragile.

Resource Allocation Considerations

• Maximize Air Defense & Counter-Measures: Given the heightened risk of massive Russian retaliation, prioritize the rapid deployment of air defense systems and ammunition, as well as active and passive countermeasures against Russian KABs and drone/missile attacks.
• Assess Impact of Drapatyi's Resignation: Closely monitor the situation regarding General Drapatyi's resignation, its acceptance, and any subsequent command changes. Ensure smooth transitions and minimize any potential disruption to Ground Forces operations.
• Deep Strike Verification & Exploitation: Continue to gather and independently verify evidence of damage to Russian airbases and aircraft to solidify claims of success. Exploit Russian internal security vulnerabilities further, refining the "fura" and other clandestine launch methods.
• Strategic Communications on Deep Strikes: Intensify efforts to frame Ukrainian deep strikes as legitimate military operations targeting strategic assets, emphasizing the degradation of Russia's long-range air power. Counter Russian "terrorism" narratives with verifiable evidence of military targets.
• Intelligence on Russian Internal Security Response: Increase intelligence gathering on Russia's internal security response to deep strikes, including any confirmed detentions, crackdowns, or alleged liquidations.
• Contingency Planning for Dnipropetrovsk: While Russian claims of imminent large-scale offensive operations in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast may be an information operation, develop contingency plans for potential ground assaults and increased air pressure on the region.
• International Engagement: Reiterate to international partners the strategic impact of deep strikes and the necessity of continued military aid, especially long-range air defense and advanced offensive capabilities, to sustain pressure on Russia and strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position.