Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated)

Major Updates

Massive Russian Aerial Attack Across Ukraine: Russia launched a massive combined drone and missile attack overnight on multiple regions across Ukraine. Explosions were reported in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Khmelnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy Oblasts.
- Kyiv: PVO (air defense) was active.
- Kharkiv: 13 explosions reported.
- Zaporizhzhia: Two people injured, house destroyed.
- Khmelnytskyi: Damage to enterprises and households.
- Sumy Oblast: One man killed and another injured in Kondrativka.
- Odesa Oblast: Russian drones caused fires and destruction in private households in Odesa district. A 100 sq m residential building was destroyed by fire. Damaged structures include roofs, outbuildings, 2 garages, 3 cars, a fence, and a gas pipeline. Two more garages were destroyed by fire at another address, a car destroyed, and a residential building damaged. The Odesa Oblast Prosecutor's Office initiated an investigation into war crimes.
- Kyiv Oblast (beyond Kyiv city): Three private houses and outbuildings damaged in Boryspil district. One private house damaged in Fastiv district. One car damaged in Bucha district.
Civilian Casualties (Official): As of May 26, 2025, official reports indicate 630 children have been killed and over 1960 injured due to Russian armed aggression.
- Recent Casualties (May 25):
  - Zhytomyr Oblast (Korostyshiv): Three children killed (8 and 17-year-old boys, 12-year-old girl); one 14-year-old boy injured.
  - Kharkiv: One 14-year-old boy injured.
  - Kyiv Oblast: Eight children injured (10, 13, 17-year-old girls; 8, 10, 11, 13-year-old boys).
  - Mykolaiv: One 17-year-old boy injured.
Russian Ground Operations - Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Fighting continues in Novosergeevka, where Ukrainian forces with armored vehicles attempted a counterattack along the southern outskirts to encircle Russian assault units in the eastern part of the village. Russian forces claim control of the pond area in Serebryanka Gully. Battles are ongoing further south, near the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and in the vicinity of Orekhovo. Rybar confirms Russian forces pushing towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, having advanced on the Vremevka direction near Volnoye Pole, Novopole, and Zelene Pole. Russian flags are reportedly raised in Volnoye Pole after unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian units are approaching the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border from the Novopol-Zelene Pole line, engaging in combat within these settlements. Heavy fighting is also reported in Burlatskoye and Veseloye.
Russian Ground Operations - Druzhkovskoye Direction: Russian forces claim the "pocket" between Romanovka and Zorya has been liquidated, with Pravdovka (Stara Mykolaivka), Ignativka, and eastern strongpoints now under Russian control. Clearing operations are ongoing in Zorya-Oleksiyivka. Russian forces are reportedly preparing to advance on Alexandrop-Kalinovka and Katerynivka. This signifies consolidated Russian gains in this area. WarGonzo reports Russian forces closed the "pocket" between Romanovka and Zarya.
Ukrainian Deep Drone Campaign - Expanded Targets: Ukrainian UAVs reportedly struck the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, Ivanovo Oblast, with the governor confirming a UAV fall in the city's industrial zone. This further expands Ukraine's deep strike capabilities into Russian industrial infrastructure. Drones were also reported in Yelabuga (Tatarstan, where Shaheds are produced), Tula (causing power outages), and Moscow. Tsaplienko reports a drone strike on the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, Ivanovo Oblast, which produces explosives. Tsaplienko also reports mass drone attacks on Yelabuga, Tatarstan, where Shaheds are produced.
Russian Internal Security - Financial Measures: Russia plans to introduce a limit on the number of bank cards in September: no more than 20 cards per person and a maximum of 5 cards per bank. This measure is intended to combat "droppers" used by fraudsters for illicit money transfers, potentially impacting the financial activities of individuals involved in shadow economies, including those supporting or involved in illegal activities related to the conflict.
Naval Activity - Black and Azov Seas: As of 06:00 on May 26, 2025, the Ukrainian General Staff reports no Russian warships or Kalibr missile carriers are present in the Black or Azov Seas. However, one Russian Kalibr missile carrier with a salvo capacity of up to 8 missiles remains in the Mediterranean Sea. Russian ship movements through the Kerch Strait included 10 vessels to the Black Sea (5 towards the Bosphorus) and 4 vessels to the Azov Sea (3 from the Bosphorus). Russia continues to violate SOLAS convention by disabling AIS systems.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Civilian Casualties and Extensive Attacks: Two civilians (60-year-old woman and 52-year-old man) were injured in Yurkivka, Zaporizhzhia district, due to a Russian attack on a private house. Over the past day, Russian forces conducted 419 attacks on 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including 26 air strikes, 253 FPV drone attacks, 6 MLRS shellings, and 134 artillery strikes. Five reports of damaged private houses, cars, and infrastructure objects were received. ASTRA reports two injured civilians (60-year-old woman and 52-year-old man) in Yurkivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, due to a private house attack, confirmed by local authorities.
US Military Aid Shipment to Baltic/Germany/Poland: An American cargo vessel, Independence, used for transporting military equipment, has reached the Baltic Sea (sighted near Great Belt Bridge, Denmark). Its destination is likely Germany, Poland, or the Baltics, for the likely purpose of supplying arms and military equipment to Ukraine or for exercises like Swift Response. Russian military bloggers view this as further confirmation that the conflict is ongoing and not ending soon.
Donald Trump's Public Statements on Ukraine: Donald Trump has publicly commented on the conflict, calling Putin "crazy" for "senselessly killing many people" and striking cities without reason. He also criticized Zelenskyy for "creating problems" with his statements, saying "everything that comes out of his mouth causes problems." Trump reiterated that "this is not his war" but "Zelenskyy's, Putin's, and Biden's," implying he is only helping to put out "fires" caused by "gross incompetence and hatred." Russian military bloggers interpret Trump's statements as preparation for the US to withdraw from providing free military aid to Kyiv, implying a shift towards European funding for American weaponry. STERNENKO reports Trump calling Putin "absolutely crazy" for senselessly killing people and launching missiles/drones without reason. Trump states Putin wants "ALL of Ukraine" which would be "the end of Russia." He also criticizes Zelenskyy for complicating the situation with his statements. RBC-Ukraine confirms Trump's statement about Putin being "absolutely crazy."
Russian Military Activity - Polohskoye Direction: Russian UAV operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army ("Vostok" Group) successfully destroyed Ukrainian fortifications on the Polohskoye direction.
Russian Information Warfare - Daily Updates: Russian military bloggers like "Dva Mayora" and "NgP razZVedka" continue to post daily "Good morning" messages, often with morale-boosting or sarcastic commentary on the conflict, indicating persistent low-level information warfare. Basurin posted a historical account of the 1829 sea battle of the brig "Mercury" against the Turkish squadron, emphasizing Russian bravery and moral superiority. This serves as a morale-boosting historical narrative within Russian information operations.
Ukrainian Defense Forces Casualties (Official): Over the past day, Ukrainian Defense Forces eliminated 1000 Russian personnel, 51 artillery systems, 264 drones, and 92 units of automotive equipment. This indicates continued high attrition rates for Russian forces. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms the elimination of 1000 Russian personnel, 4 tanks, 8 armored combat vehicles, 51 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 2 air defense systems, 264 operational-tactical drones, 53 missiles, and 92 units of automotive equipment over the past day. RBC-Ukraine also confirms 1000 Russian casualties, 51 artillery systems, 264 drones, and 92 units of automotive equipment eliminated.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Defensive Actions and Damage: Ukrainian defenders destroyed 3 UAVs overnight over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A fire occurred in Kamenskoye district due to an attack and was extinguished. Nikopol and Marganetska communities were attacked by Grad MLRS, artillery, and UAVs, damaging multi-story and private houses and vehicles. Malomykhailivska community was hit by an FPV drone, damaging two houses. Four private houses were damaged by KABs in Novopavlivska community (yesterday's strike). No casualties reported. Serhii Lysak (Dnipropetrovsk ODA) reports 3 UAVs shot down overnight. A fire in Kamenskoye district due to an attack was extinguished. Nikopol and Marganetska communities were shelled by Grad MLRS, artillery, and UAVs, damaging multi-story and private houses and vehicles. Malomykhailivska community was hit by an FPV drone, damaging two houses. Four private houses in Novopavlivska community were damaged by KABs from yesterday's strike. Oleksandr Vilkul (Kryvyi Rih) confirms 3 UAVs shot down overnight over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with no casualties. Nikopol and Marganetska communities were attacked by Grad MLRS, artillery, and UAVs, damaging residential buildings and cars.
Ukraine Training Camp Activities: The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces released a video of "zero day" in their training camp, showing new recruits undergoing immediate, intense training upon arrival, highlighting the continuous cycle of force generation and training.
Ukrainian Deep Drone Campaign - Chemical Plant Confirmed: A video shows the moment a UAV fell in Kineshma this morning. Local sources report that the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant was targeted. Additionally, PVO operations were reported in Aleksin, Tula Oblast, also near a chemical plant. Night explosions in Tula were reportedly aimed at NPO "Splav," a producer of MLRS. This further confirms Ukraine's targeting of Russian military-industrial complex. Operatyvnyi ZSU released a video of a UAV falling in Kineshma, confirming the target as the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant. PVO operations were also reported in Aleksin, Tula Oblast, near a chemical plant, and night explosions in Tula targeted NPO "Splav," an MLRS producer. Tsaplienko confirms a drone hit a chemical enterprise in Ivanovo Oblast that produces explosives, likely referring to Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant.
Trump's Economic Policy toward EU Delayed: Donald Trump has delayed a 50% tariff against the EU from June 1 to July 9 following a conversation with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who promised quick negotiations on a new trade agreement. This indicates a potential easing of immediate trade tensions with the EU. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump delaying the 50% tariff on EU goods from June 1 to July 9 after a conversation with Ursula von der Leyen, who promised quick trade agreement negotiations. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms Trump's delay of EU tariffs until July 9 following a conversation with Ursula von der Leyen, pending negotiations for a new trade agreement. RBC-Ukraine reports Ursula von der Leyen confirming her call with Donald Trump, stating the EU and US share significant trade relations and that Europe is ready to quickly advance negotiations for a good agreement by July 9.
Intense Combat Engagements Across Ukraine: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 180 combat engagements over the past day. Russian forces conducted one missile strike and 112 air strikes (84 rockets, 189 KABs), launched 3005 kamikaze drones, and carried out 4961 shellings. Ukrainian defense forces struck 8 areas of personnel/equipment concentration, 1 UAV control point, and 1 artillery system. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 180 combat engagements, with 63 on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces conducted 1 missile and 112 air strikes (84 rockets, 189 KABs on Ukraine + 25 on Kursk region), launched 3005 kamikaze drones, and conducted 4961 shellings. Ukrainian defense forces hit 8 areas of personnel/equipment concentration, 1 UAV control point, and 1 artillery system.
Russian Internal Security - Illegal Fishing in Khabarovsk Krai: Police in Komsomolsk district, Khabarovsk Krai, detained three individuals for illegal fishing during "Operation Putina 2025." Two men (35 and 33) were caught with two live Amur sturgeons (Red Book species) in a fishing net, which were returned to the Amur River. This is an internal law enforcement matter.
ISW Assessment - Russian Objectives of Mass Strikes: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that the Kremlin is conducting mass strikes to "break Ukrainians and demoralize the West." Analysts believe Russia deliberately uses terrorist shelling, harsh rhetoric, and plays on Western pessimism to divert attention from its failures on the front. This is part of a multi-vector campaign to convince Western allies that further support for Ukraine is futile.
Ukrainian Public Sentiment Survey (RBC-Ukraine/Rating Group): A new interview with Oleksiy Antypovych, head of the Sociological Group "Rating," discusses Ukrainian public sentiment, including increased trust in Zelenskyy, the "phenomenon" of Zaluzhnyi, acceptable compromises for a peace agreement, public readiness to endure wartime hardships, and the attitudes of refugees abroad toward the Ukrainian government.
Turkey-Russia Diplomatic Meetings: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is scheduled to meet with Putin, Medinsky, and Naryshkin on May 26. This indicates ongoing diplomatic efforts between Turkey and Russia, potentially concerning the conflict.
TCC (Military Recruitment Center) Building Fire in Vinnytsia: A video from "Two Mayors" shows a building identified as a TCC in Vinnytsia on fire. The cause and extent of damage are currently unknown.
Odesa Military Academy Cadets Receive Maroon Berets: Cadets from the Military Academy of Odesa received their maroon berets after completing training at the 199th Air Assault Forces Training Center, symbolizing their readiness for service.
Ukrainian Soldier Commemorated in Kyiv: Senior soldier Petro Heliuta ("Petrukha"), who died on October 27, 2022, after a combat mission in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, was commemorated by the Kyiv City Military Administration and the Memorial Platform. He was 45, had combat experience in ATO, and served as a scout and anti-tank platoon driver.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

Donetsk Oblast:
- Druzhkovskoye Direction ("Kalinovka Pocket"): Russian "Yug" Group units claim to have liquidated the "Kalinovka Pocket," asserting control over Pravdovka (Stara Mykolaivka) and Ignativka, along with Ukrainian strongpoints to their east. Clearing operations are ongoing in Zorya-Oleksiyivka. Russian forces are preparing for further advances on Alexandrop-Kalinovo and Katerynivka. WarGonzo states Russian forces closed the "pocket" between Romanovka and Zarya.
- Konstantinovka Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 10 combat engagements in the direction of Predtechyne, Bila Hora, near Chasiv Yar and Kurdyumivka. Russian forces made 63 assault actions on the Pokrovsk direction in areas including Kotliarivka, Malynivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Zvirove, Troitske, Yelyzavetivka, Andriivka, Nova Poltavka, Horikhove, and towards Novomykolaivka, Shevchenko Pershe, Zorya, Muravka, Oleksiivka, Myroliubivka. On the Novopavlivka direction, 24 attacks occurred in areas of Novopil, Kostiantynopil, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, and towards Myrnyi, Shevchenko, Komar, Zelene Pole, and Bahatyr.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Fighting is reported in Novosergeevka, where Ukrainian forces, utilizing armored vehicles, attempted a counterattack from west to east along the southern outskirts of Novonikolaevka, aiming to cut off and encircle Russian assault units in the eastern part of the village. Russian forces claim control of the pond area in Serebryanka Gully. Further south, battles are ongoing near the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and in the area of Orekhovo. Rybar confirms Russian forces pushing towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, having advanced on the Vremevka direction near Volnoye Pole, Novopole, and Zelene Pole. Russian flags are reportedly raised in Volnoye Pole after unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian units are approaching the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border from the Novopol-Zelene Pole line, engaging in combat within these settlements. Heavy fighting is also reported in Burlatskoye and Veseloye. WarGonzo reports tactical successes in Zelene Pole, with eastern and northern parts now under Russian control. Battles continue in Novopole.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Damage: Nikopol and Marganetska communities were attacked by Grad MLRS, artillery, and UAVs, damaging multi-story and private houses and vehicles. Malomykhailivska community was hit by an FPV drone, damaging two houses. Four private houses were damaged by KABs in Novopavlivska community (yesterday's strike).
Polohskoye Direction: UAV operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army ("Vostok" Group) reportedly destroyed Ukrainian fortifications. Bombardment aviation of the 11th Guards Combined Arms Army ("Vostok" Group) struck Ukrainian positions on the Vremevka direction.
Shakhtersk Direction: Artillery units of the 36th Combined Arms Army ("Vostok" Group) claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian temporary deployment point and a UAV control point.
Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian General Staff reports air strikes on Osoiyivka. Ukrainian defenders stopped 26 Russian assault actions on the Kursk direction, where Russia conducted 14 air strikes (25 KABs), 225 shellings (13 MLRS). WarGonzo reports Russian forces continue to advance from the state border, with battles commencing in Yunakovka. The situation remains tense near Tetkino, with Russian strikes on Ukrainian forces.
Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian General Staff reports 6 Russian attacks near Vovchansk, Stroivka, and Krasne Pershe. WarGonzo reports FPV operators of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps, destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopter over Kharkiv Oblast.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian forces launched 419 attacks on 12 settlements in the region, including 26 air strikes, 253 FPV drone attacks, 6 MLRS shellings, and 134 artillery strikes. Two residents (60-year-old woman and 52-year-old man) were injured in Yurkivka, Zaporizhzhia district, with their private house destroyed. Five reports of damaged private houses, cars, and infrastructure objects were received. Ukrainian General Staff reports Russian air strikes on Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Malynivka, Mala Tokmachka, Kamianke, and Shcherbaky. Five Russian attempts to advance occurred near Novodanylivka and Stepove on the Orikhiv direction.
- Zaporizhzhia Civilian Injuries Confirmed: Local authorities confirm two people (60-year-old woman and 52-year-old man) were injured in Yurkivka due to a private house hit. Medical assistance has been provided.

Aerial & Naval Activity

Massive Combined Aerial Attack on Ukraine: Russian forces attacked Ukraine overnight with a massive combined drone and missile strike, targeting multiple regions including Kyiv, Kharkiv (13 explosions), Mykolaiv, Odesa, Khmelnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy Oblasts.
- Odesa Oblast: Russian UAVs caused fires and destruction in private households. A 100 sq m residential building was destroyed by fire. Damage includes roofs, outbuildings, garages, cars, fences, and a gas pipeline. No casualties reported in Odesa. The Odesa Oblast Prosecutor's Office initiated an investigation into war crimes.
- Kyiv Oblast: PVO was active. Three private houses and outbuildings damaged in Boryspil district, one private house damaged in Fastiv district, and one car damaged in Bucha district.
- Kondrativka (Sumy Oblast): One man killed, one injured.
- Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Damage to enterprises and households.
Ukrainian Deep Drone Campaign - Expanded Targets: Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, Ivanovo Oblast, confirmed by the regional governor. This marks a significant expansion of Ukrainian long-range strikes into Russian industrial targets. Other drone activity was reported in Yelabuga (Tatarstan), Tula (resulting in power outages), and Moscow. Tsaplienko reports a drone strike on the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, Ivanovo Oblast, which produces explosives. Tsaplienko also reports mass drone attacks on Yelabuga, Tatarstan, where Shaheds are produced. Operatyvnyi ZSU released a video of a UAV falling in Kineshma, confirming the target as the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant. PVO operations were also reported in Aleksin, Tula Oblast, near a chemical plant, and night explosions in Tula targeted NPO "Splav," an MLRS producer.
Naval Activity: As of 06:00, May 26, 2025, the Ukrainian General Staff confirms no Russian warships or Kalibr missile carriers are present in the Black or Azov Seas. One Russian Kalibr missile carrier with an 8-missile salvo capacity is in the Mediterranean Sea. Kerch Strait traffic involved 10 vessels to the Black Sea (5 to Bosphorus) and 4 vessels to the Azov Sea (3 from Bosphorus). Russia continues to violate SOLAS by disabling AIS.
US Military Aid Shipment: An American cargo vessel, Independence, used for transporting military equipment, has reached the Baltic Sea, likely en route to Germany, Poland, or the Baltics to supply arms to Ukraine or participate in exercises.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Air Defense: Ukrainian defenders destroyed 3 UAVs overnight over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Widespread Air Alerts and Combined Strikes in Ukraine (Confirmed): RBC-Ukraine reports Russia attacked Ukraine with drones and missiles overnight, with explosions in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 1 missile and 112 air strikes (84 rockets, 189 KABs), and 3005 kamikaze drones used by Russia over the past day. Russian aviation also launched strikes on Osoiyivka (Sumy Oblast), Dovha Balka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Stepanivka, Novopil (Donetsk Oblast), Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Malynivka, Mala Tokmachka, Kamianke, Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
TCC Building Fire: A building identified as a TCC in Vinnytsia is reportedly on fire.

Humanitarian and Social Issues

Civilian Casualties (Official): As of May 26, 2025, official reports indicate 630 children have been killed and over 1960 injured due to Russian armed aggression.
- Recent Casualties (May 25):
  - Zhytomyr Oblast (Korostyshiv): Three children killed (8 and 17-year-old boys, 12-year-old girl); one 14-year-old boy injured.
  - Kharkiv: One 14-year-old boy injured.
  - Kyiv Oblast: Eight children injured (10, 13, 17-year-old girls; 8, 10, 11, 13-year-old boys).
  - Mykolaiv: One 17-year-old boy injured.
Russian Internal Security - Financial Measures: Russia plans to implement a limit on bank cards in September 2025, restricting individuals to a maximum of 20 cards overall and 5 cards per bank. This measure is aimed at combating fraudulent schemes involving "droppers."
Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Civilian Casualties: Two civilians (60-year-old woman and 52-year-old man) were injured in Yurkivka, Zaporizhzhia district, due to a Russian attack on a private house, which was destroyed.
Russian Internal Security - Illegal Fishing in Khabarovsk Krai: Police in Komsomolsk district, Khabarovsk Krai, detained three individuals for illegal fishing during "Operation Putina 2025." Two men (35 and 33) were caught with two live Amur sturgeons (Red Book species) in a fishing net, which were returned to the Amur River. This is an internal law enforcement matter.
Ukrainian Public Sentiment Survey (RBC-Ukraine/Rating Group): A new interview with Oleksiy Antypovych, head of the Sociological Group "Rating," discusses Ukrainian public sentiment, including increased trust in Zelenskyy, the "phenomenon" of Zaluzhnyi, acceptable compromises for a peace agreement, public readiness to endure wartime hardships, and the attitudes of refugees abroad toward the Ukrainian government.
Ukrainian Soldier Commemoration: Senior soldier Petro Heliuta, who died on October 27, 2022, near Zaporizhzhia, was commemorated in Kyiv. The commemoration highlights the sacrifices of Ukrainian defenders. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration also reports daily commemoration of fallen Ukrainians in the Zaporizhzhia Youth Theater.

Strategic Projections

The most significant strategic update is the massive, multi-regional combined aerial attack by Russia, indicating a continued and possibly intensified campaign to degrade Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian morale. The widespread explosions and casualties reported across multiple oblasts, including Kyiv and Kharkiv, underscore the scale and destructive intent of these strikes. The specific targeting of the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Ivanovo Oblast by Ukrainian drones signifies a sustained expansion of Ukraine's deep strike capabilities into Russia's industrial heartland, demonstrating an evolving strategy to impose economic costs on the aggressor. The Russian vow of retaliation for previous strikes in Lipetsk indicates an escalating cycle of deep strikes and counter-strikes.

On the ground, Russia continues its attritional strategy in Donetsk Oblast, claiming the "liquidation of the Kalinovka pocket" and control over Pravdovka and Ignativka. This suggests a determined effort to consolidate gains and advance towards new objectives. The ongoing battles near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and around Orekhovo indicate a persistent Russian push to expand their influence and threaten key logistical hubs. Despite these claimed advances, the reported elimination of 1000 Russian personnel within 24 hours by Ukrainian Defense Forces highlights the extremely high attrition rates for Russian forces.

Donald Trump's recent public statements continue to complicate the international aid landscape, suggesting a potential shift towards greater European financial responsibility for military assistance to Ukraine. However, his delay of EU tariffs could temporarily ease immediate trade tensions, potentially fostering better EU-US coordination on other matters. The Turkish Foreign Minister's planned meetings in Moscow indicate ongoing diplomatic engagement with Russia, the nature and outcome of which will be closely observed for any implications for the conflict.

The ISW assessment regarding Russia's objective of demoralizing Ukraine and the West through mass strikes provides a crucial framework for understanding Russian information warfare and psychological operations. This highlights the importance of robust counter-narratives and sustained international support for Ukraine. The fire at the TCC building in Vinnytsia, while currently unexplained, could be a point of internal security concern or information warfare exploitation for both sides. The continued emphasis on force generation and training in Ukraine, as exemplified by the 46th Airmobile Brigade's "zero day" activities and the Odessa Military Academy's cadet training, demonstrates Ukraine's commitment to sustaining its defense capabilities amidst persistent attacks.

Risk Assessment

Operational Risk (Ukraine): High. The massive combined aerial attack across multiple oblasts presents an immediate and severe operational risk to civilian infrastructure and air defense assets nationwide. The claimed consolidation of Russian gains in Donetsk Oblast and ongoing battles near the Dnipropetrovsk border pose significant ground operational risks, including territorial losses and high attrition rates. The TCC building fire in Vinnytsia, if linked to hostile actions or internal instability, presents a risk to recruitment and administrative functions. The high number of Russian attacks across the front, especially on Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, indicates extremely high pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
Operational Risk (Russia): Moderate to High. Ukrainian deep drone strikes on industrial facilities (e.g., Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant) continue to pose a significant risk to Russia's military-industrial complex. The consistent elimination of 1000 Russian personnel daily suggests a high and unsustainable attrition rate for Russia's long-term offensive capabilities.
Humanitarian Risk: Severe. The massive combined aerial attack on multiple Ukrainian regions has a high potential for civilian casualties and extensive damage to residential and critical infrastructure, as confirmed by initial reports of killed and injured civilians in Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. The official report on children killed and injured since the full-scale invasion is a stark reminder of the devastating humanitarian impact.
Information Warfare Risk: High. Russia will leverage its claimed territorial gains and the impact of its mass strikes to demoralize Ukraine and the West, as per the ISW assessment. Trump's statements will continue to be a significant factor in shaping international narratives. The TCC fire could be exploited by Russia for propaganda. Ukraine will emphasize its deep strike capabilities and Russian personnel losses.
Ethical Compliance: Severe. The indiscriminate nature of the massive combined aerial attacks targeting civilian areas and resulting in numerous civilian casualties, including children, represents clear violations of international humanitarian law.

Resource Allocation Considerations

Air Defense Enhancement: Prioritize the immediate deployment and enhancement of advanced air defense systems across all major urban centers and critical infrastructure points, given the scale and multi-vector nature of the recent combined aerial attack. Focus on countering both drones and missile threats.
Civilian Protection and Emergency Response: Allocate substantial resources for immediate humanitarian assistance, medical support, and emergency services in all affected regions, particularly Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Khmelnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy Oblasts. Prioritize support for child victims of the conflict.
Frontline Defensive Reinforcement: Continue to allocate significant resources (personnel, equipment, and defensive structures) to the Donetsk Oblast sectors, particularly the Druzhkovskoye direction, to prevent further Russian breakthroughs. Reinforce lines near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and Orekhovo.
Long-Range Strike Capabilities: Continue investment in and utilization of long-range drone capabilities to target key Russian industrial and military-industrial facilities to impose economic costs and disrupt production.
Strategic Communications: Develop and disseminate robust counter-narratives to Russian information warfare efforts, emphasizing the terroristic nature of mass strikes and the resilience of Ukrainian society. Proactively address Donald Trump's statements to ensure continued international support.
Force Generation and Training: Sustain and expand training programs to ensure a continuous supply of well-trained personnel for the front lines, as demonstrated by the 46th Airmobile Brigade and the Odessa Military Academy.
Internal Security Response: Investigate the TCC building fire in Vinnytsia to determine its cause and implement preventative measures if deemed a hostile act.

Operational Workflow Updates

Data Collection and Preprocessing:

Mass Aerial Attack Data: Collect detailed reports on the overnight combined drone and missile attack across all affected oblasts (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Khmelnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy). Document the number of explosions, specific locations of impact, and type of damage (residential, industrial, infrastructure). Document all civilian casualties (killed and injured), particularly the breakdown by age for children.
TCC Building Fire: Gather all available information on the TCC building fire in Vinnytsia, including visual evidence, official statements, and initial assessments of cause and extent of damage.
Diplomatic Meetings: Document the outcomes and any official statements from Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's meetings with Putin, Medinsky, and Naryshkin on May 26.
Ground Truth Verification: Continuously monitor Russian claims of "liquidating the Kalinovka pocket" and controlling Pravdovka and Ignativka, seeking independent verification. Document ongoing battles near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and Orekhovo.
Civilian Casualties: Systematically update official statistics on child casualties (killed and injured) across all affected regions.
Drone Attack Data: Continue to document Ukrainian deep drone strikes on Russian territory, including the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant.
Personnel Loss Data: Continue to track and verify official Ukrainian reports on Russian personnel and equipment losses (1000 personnel, 51 artillery, 264 drones, 92 vehicles).
Internal Russian Security Data: Document any new information regarding Russian financial measures or internal law enforcement actions.
International Aid Data: Continue to track US military aid shipments.
Political Statements: Document any further statements from Donald Trump regarding the conflict or EU tariffs.
ISW Assessment: Integrate the full ISW assessment on Russian mass strikes into the intelligence database.
Public Sentiment Data: Incorporate key findings from the RBC-Ukraine/Rating Group survey on Ukrainian public sentiment.
Training Activities: Document new training videos or reports from Ukrainian military units.
Commemorations: Document events commemorating fallen Ukrainian soldiers.

Analysis and Modeling:

Combined Aerial Attack Impact Analysis: Conduct a comprehensive analysis of the recent massive combined aerial attack, assessing its overall impact on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, air defense capabilities, and civilian morale. Model the effectiveness of air defense responses across different regions.
Ground Offensive Projection: Refine predictive models for Russian ground offensives, considering claimed gains and ongoing battles in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Assess the resource demands these offensives place on Ukrainian defense.
Deep Strike Reciprocity: Analyze the escalating cycle of deep strikes and vows of retaliation, modeling potential escalatory pathways and their implications for both sides.
Political Influence Analysis: Assess the potential impact of Turkish-Russian diplomatic meetings on the conflict dynamics.
TCC Fire Impact Assessment: Analyze the potential implications of the TCC building fire on Ukrainian mobilization efforts and internal security.
Attrition Rate Sustainability: Continuously analyze Russian personnel and equipment attrition rates and their long-term sustainability.
Information Warfare Strategy: Analyze how ISW's assessment of Russian mass strikes informs Ukraine's counter-information warfare strategies.

Reporting and Visualization:

National Aerial Attack Impact Map: Create an updated, dynamic map showing the impact of the recent massive combined aerial attack across Ukraine, highlighting affected regions, confirmed damage, and civilian casualties.
Updated Frontline Maps: Continuously update detailed maps showing Russian advances and Ukrainian defensive lines in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
Civilian Casualty Dashboards: Provide updated dashboards on civilian casualties, specifically highlighting child victims and the impact of recent attacks.
Strategic Communications Briefs: Prepare briefs on countering Russian information warfare regarding mass strikes and the TCC fire. Develop messaging to navigate international political statements, including those from Donald Trump.
Force Generation Status Reports: Provide regular reports on Ukrainian force generation and training efforts.
Key Diplomatic Engagements: Highlight significant diplomatic meetings and their potential implications.

Feedback Loop:

Emergency Services Feedback: Establish direct and immediate feedback channels with emergency services, medical facilities, and local authorities in all affected oblasts to gather real-time data on casualties, damage, and urgent needs following the massive aerial attack.
Frontline Unit Feedback: Continue to gather real-time feedback from ground units on the intensity and nature of Russian offensives in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
Air Defense Feedback: Collect feedback from air defense units on the effectiveness of countermeasures against recent drone and missile waves.
Internal Security Feedback: Gather feedback from internal security forces regarding the TCC building fire.
International Partner Feedback: Solicit feedback from diplomatic partners on their interpretation of the Turkish-Russian meetings and their ongoing support for Ukraine.

Situation Report