Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus (Updated)

Major Updates

Russian Ground Operations - Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Fighting continues in Novosergeevka, where Ukrainian forces with armored vehicles attempted a counterattack along the southern outskirts to encircle Russian assault units in the eastern part of the village. Russian forces claim control of the pond area in Serebryanka Gully. Battles are ongoing further south, near the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and in the vicinity of Orekhovo. Rybar confirms Russian forces pushing towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, having advanced on the Vremevka direction near Volnoye Pole, Novopole, and Zelene Pole. Russian flags are reportedly raised in Volnoye Pole after unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian units are approaching the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border from the Novopol-Zelene Pole line, engaging in combat within these settlements. Heavy fighting is also reported in Burlatskoye and Veseloye.
Russian Ground Operations - Druzhkovskoye Direction: Russian forces claim the "pocket" between Romanovka and Zorya has been liquidated, with Pravdovka (Stara Mykolaivka), Ignativka, and eastern strongpoints now under Russian control. Clearing operations are ongoing in Zorya-Oleksiyivka. Russian forces are reportedly preparing to advance on Alexandrop-Kalinovka and Katerynivka. This signifies consolidated Russian gains in this area. WarGonzo reports Russian forces closed the "pocket" between Romanovka and Zarya.
Ukrainian Deep Drone Campaign - Expanded Targets: Ukrainian UAVs reportedly struck the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, Ivanovo Oblast, with the governor confirming a UAV fall in the city's industrial zone. This further expands Ukraine's deep strike capabilities into Russian industrial infrastructure. Drones were also reported in Yelabuga (Tatarstan, where Shaheds are produced), Tula (causing power outages), and Moscow. Tsaplienko reports a drone strike on the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, Ivanovo Oblast, which produces explosives. Tsaplienko also reports mass drone attacks on Yelabuga, Tatarstan, where Shaheds are produced.
Russian Internal Security - Financial Measures: Russia plans to introduce a limit on the number of bank cards in September: no more than 20 cards per person and a maximum of 5 cards per bank. This measure is intended to combat "droppers" used by fraudsters for illicit money transfers, potentially impacting the financial activities of individuals involved in shadow economies, including those supporting or involved in illegal activities related to the conflict.
Naval Activity - Black and Azov Seas: As of 06:00 on May 26, 2025, the Ukrainian General Staff reports no Russian warships or Kalibr missile carriers are present in the Black or Azov Seas. However, one Russian Kalibr missile carrier with a salvo capacity of up to 8 missiles remains in the Mediterranean Sea. Russian ship movements through the Kerch Strait included 10 vessels to the Black Sea (5 towards the Bosphorus) and 4 vessels to the Azov Sea (3 from the Bosphorus). Russia continues to violate SOLAS convention by disabling AIS systems.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Civilian Casualties and Extensive Attacks: Two civilians (60-year-old woman and 52-year-old man) were injured in Yurkivka, Zaporizhzhia district, due to a Russian attack on a private house. Over the past day, Russian forces conducted 419 attacks on 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including 26 air strikes, 253 FPV drone attacks, 6 MLRS shellings, and 134 artillery strikes. Five reports of damaged private houses, cars, and infrastructure objects were received. ASTRA reports two injured civilians (60-year-old woman and 52-year-old man) in Yurkivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, due to a private house attack, confirmed by local authorities.
US Military Aid Shipment to Baltic/Germany/Poland: An American cargo vessel, Independence, used for transporting military equipment, has reached the Baltic Sea (sighted near Great Belt Bridge, Denmark). Its destination is likely Germany, Poland, or the Baltics, for the likely purpose of supplying arms and military equipment to Ukraine or for exercises like Swift Response. Russian military bloggers view this as further confirmation that the conflict is ongoing and not ending soon.
Donald Trump's Public Statements on Ukraine: Donald Trump has publicly commented on the conflict, calling Putin "crazy" for "senselessly killing many people" and striking cities without reason. He also criticized Zelenskyy for "creating problems" with his statements, saying "everything that comes out of his mouth causes problems." Trump reiterated that "this is not his war" but "Zelenskyy's, Putin's, and Biden's," implying he is only helping to put out "fires" caused by "gross incompetence and hatred." Russian military bloggers interpret Trump's statements as preparation for the US to withdraw from providing free military aid to Kyiv, implying a shift towards European funding for American weaponry. STERNENKO reports Trump calling Putin "absolutely crazy" for senselessly killing people and launching missiles/drones without reason. Trump states Putin wants "ALL of Ukraine" which would be "the end of Russia." He also criticizes Zelenskyy for complicating the situation with his statements. RBC-Ukraine confirms Trump's statement about Putin being "absolutely crazy."
Russian Military Activity - Polohskoye Direction: Russian UAV operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army ("Vostok" Group) successfully destroyed Ukrainian fortifications on the Polohskoye direction.
Russian Information Warfare - Daily Updates: Russian military bloggers like "Dva Mayora" and "NgP razZVedka" continue to post daily "Good morning" messages, often with morale-boosting or sarcastic commentary on the conflict, indicating persistent low-level information warfare. Basurin posted a historical account of the 1829 sea battle of the brig "Mercury" against the Turkish squadron, emphasizing Russian bravery and moral superiority. This serves as a morale-boosting historical narrative within Russian information operations.
New: Ukrainian Defense Forces Casualties (Official): Over the past day, Ukrainian Defense Forces eliminated 1000 Russian personnel, 51 artillery systems, 264 drones, and 92 units of automotive equipment. This indicates continued high attrition rates for Russian forces. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms the elimination of 1000 Russian personnel, 4 tanks, 8 armored combat vehicles, 51 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 2 air defense systems, 264 operational-tactical drones, 53 missiles, and 92 units of automotive equipment over the past day. RBC-Ukraine also confirms 1000 Russian casualties, 51 artillery systems, 264 drones, and 92 units of automotive equipment eliminated.
New: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Defensive Actions and Damage: Ukrainian defenders destroyed 3 UAVs overnight over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A fire occurred in Kamenskoye district due to an attack and was extinguished. Nikopol and Marganetska communities were attacked by Grad MLRS, artillery, and UAVs, damaging multi-story and private houses and vehicles. Malomykhailivska community was hit by an FPV drone, damaging two houses. Four private houses were damaged by KABs in Novopavlivska community (yesterday's strike). No casualties reported. Serhii Lysak (Dnipropetrovsk ODA) reports 3 UAVs shot down overnight. A fire in Kamenskoye district due to an attack was extinguished. Nikopol and Marganetska communities were shelled by Grad MLRS, artillery, and UAVs, damaging multi-story and private houses and vehicles. Malomykhailivska community was hit by an FPV drone, damaging two houses. Four private houses in Novopavlivska community were damaged by KABs from yesterday's strike. Oleksandr Vilkul (Kryvyi Rih) confirms 3 UAVs shot down overnight over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with no casualties. Nikopol and Marganetska communities were attacked by Grad MLRS, artillery, and UAVs, damaging residential buildings and cars.
New: Ukraine Training Camp Activities: The 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces released a video of "zero day" in their training camp, showing new recruits undergoing immediate, intense training upon arrival, highlighting the continuous cycle of force generation and training.
New: Ukrainian Deep Drone Campaign - Chemical Plant Confirmed: A video shows the moment a UAV fell in Kineshma this morning. Local sources report that the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant was targeted. Additionally, PVO operations were reported in Aleksin, Tula Oblast, also near a chemical plant. Night explosions in Tula were reportedly aimed at NPO "Splav," a producer of MLRS. This further confirms Ukraine's targeting of Russian military-industrial complex. Operatyvnyi ZSU released a video of a UAV falling in Kineshma, confirming the target as the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant. PVO operations were also reported in Aleksin, Tula Oblast, near a chemical plant, and night explosions in Tula targeted NPO "Splav," an MLRS producer. Tsaplienko confirms a drone hit a chemical enterprise in Ivanovo Oblast that produces explosives, likely referring to Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant.
New: Historical Propaganda in Russia: Basurin posted a historical account of the 1829 sea battle of the brig "Mercury" against the Turkish squadron, emphasizing Russian bravery and moral superiority. This serves as a morale-boosting historical narrative within Russian information operations.
New: Trump's Economic Policy toward EU Delayed: Donald Trump has delayed a 50% tariff against the EU from June 1 to July 9 following a conversation with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who promised quick negotiations on a new trade agreement. This indicates a potential easing of immediate trade tensions with the EU. RBC-Ukraine reports Trump delaying the 50% tariff on EU goods from June 1 to July 9 after a conversation with Ursula von der Leyen, who promised quick trade agreement negotiations. Operatyvnyi ZSU confirms Trump's delay of EU tariffs until July 9 following a conversation with Ursula von der Leyen, pending negotiations for a new trade agreement. RBC-Ukraine reports Ursula von der Leyen confirming her call with Donald Trump, stating the EU and US share significant trade relations and that Europe is ready to quickly advance negotiations for a good agreement by July 9.
New: Intense Combat Engagements Across Ukraine: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 180 combat engagements over the past day. Russian forces conducted one missile strike and 112 air strikes (84 rockets, 189 KABs), launched 3005 kamikaze drones, and carried out 4961 shellings. Ukrainian defense forces struck 8 areas of personnel/equipment concentration, 1 UAV control point, and 1 artillery system. Operatyvnyi ZSU reports 180 combat engagements, with 63 on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces conducted 1 missile and 112 air strikes (84 rockets, 189 KABs on Ukraine + 25 on Kursk region), launched 3005 kamikaze drones, and conducted 4961 shellings. Ukrainian defense forces hit 8 areas of personnel/equipment concentration, 1 UAV control point, and 1 artillery system.
New: Odesa Oblast - Civilian Infrastructure Damage from Drone Attack: Russian forces attacked Odesa Oblast overnight with UAVs. A residential building (100 sq m) was destroyed by fire in Odesa district. Damaged structures include roofs of residential buildings, outbuildings, 2 garages, 3 cars, a fence, and a gas pipeline. Another address saw 2 garages destroyed by fire, a car destroyed, and a residential building damaged. No casualties reported. This indicates widespread damage to civilian infrastructure. The Odesa Oblast Prosecutor's Office initiated an investigation into war crimes (Part 1, Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine) following the attack.
New: Russian Internal Security - Illegal Fishing in Khabarovsk Krai: Police in Komsomolsk district, Khabarovsk Krai, detained three individuals for illegal fishing during "Operation Putina 2025." Two men (35 and 33) were caught with two live Amur sturgeons (Red Book species) in a fishing net, which were returned to the Amur River. This is an internal law enforcement matter.
New: ISW Assessment - Russian Objectives of Mass Strikes: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that the Kremlin is conducting mass strikes to "break Ukrainians and demoralize the West." Analysts believe Russia deliberately uses terrorist shelling, harsh rhetoric, and plays on Western pessimism to divert attention from its failures on the front. This is part of a multi-vector campaign to convince Western allies that further support for Ukraine is futile.
New: Ukrainian Public Sentiment Survey (RBC-Ukraine/Rating Group): A new interview with Oleksiy Antypovych, head of the Sociological Group "Rating," discusses Ukrainian public sentiment, including increased trust in Zelenskyy, the "phenomenon" of Zaluzhnyi, acceptable compromises for a peace agreement, public readiness to endure wartime hardships, and the attitudes of refugees abroad toward the Ukrainian government.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

Donetsk Oblast:
- Druzhkovskoye Direction ("Kalinovka Pocket"): Russian "Yug" Group units claim to have liquidated the "Kalinovka Pocket," asserting control over Pravdovka (Stara Mykolaivka) and Ignativka, along with Ukrainian strongpoints to their east. Clearing operations are ongoing in Zorya-Oleksiyivka. Russian forces are preparing for further advances on Alexandrop-Kalinovo and Katerynivka. WarGonzo states Russian forces closed the "pocket" between Romanovka and Zarya.
- Konstantinovka Direction: Ukrainian General Staff reports 10 combat engagements in the direction of Predtechyne, Bila Hora, near Chasiv Yar and Kurdyumivka. Russian forces made 63 assault actions on the Pokrovsk direction in areas including Kotliarivka, Malynivka, Lysivka, Udachne, Zvirove, Troitske, Yelyzavetivka, Andriivka, Nova Poltavka, Horikhove, and towards Novomykolaivka, Shevchenko Pershe, Zorya, Muravka, Oleksiivka, Myroliubivka. On the Novopavlivka direction, 24 attacks occurred in areas of Novopil, Kostiantynopil, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, and towards Myrnyi, Shevchenko, Komar, Zelene Pole, and Bahatyr.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Fighting is reported in Novosergeevka, where Ukrainian forces, utilizing armored vehicles, attempted a counterattack from west to east along the southern outskirts of Novonikolaevka, aiming to cut off and encircle Russian assault units in the eastern part of the village. Russian forces claim control of the pond area in Serebryanka Gully. Further south, battles are ongoing near the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and in the area of Orekhovo. Rybar confirms Russian forces pushing towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, having advanced on the Vremevka direction near Volnoye Pole, Novopole, and Zelene Pole. Russian flags are reportedly raised in Volnoye Pole after unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian units are approaching the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border from the Novopol-Zelene Pole line, engaging in combat within these settlements. Heavy fighting is also reported in Burlatskoye and Veseloye. WarGonzo reports tactical successes in Zelene Pole, with eastern and northern parts now under Russian control. Battles continue in Novopole.
- New: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Damage: Nikopol and Marganetska communities were attacked by Grad MLRS, artillery, and UAVs, damaging multi-story and private houses and vehicles. Malomykhailivska community was hit by an FPV drone, damaging two houses. Four private houses were damaged by KABs in Novopavlivska community (yesterday's strike).
Polohskoye Direction: UAV operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army ("Vostok" Group) reportedly destroyed Ukrainian fortifications.
Shakhtersk Direction: Artillery units of the 36th Combined Arms Army ("Vostok" Group) claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian temporary deployment point and a UAV control point.
Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian General Staff reports air strikes on Osoiyivka. Ukrainian defenders stopped 26 Russian assault actions on the Kursk direction, where Russia conducted 14 air strikes (25 KABs), 225 shellings (13 MLRS). WarGonzo reports Russian forces continue to advance from the state border, with battles commencing in Yunakovka. The situation remains tense near Tetkino, with Russian strikes on Ukrainian forces.
Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian General Staff reports 6 Russian attacks near Vovchansk, Stroivka, and Krasne Pershe. WarGonzo reports FPV operators of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps, destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopter over Kharkiv Oblast.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian forces launched 419 attacks on 12 settlements in the region, including 26 air strikes, 253 FPV drone attacks, 6 MLRS shellings, and 134 artillery strikes. Two residents (60-year-old woman and 52-year-old man) were injured in Yurkivka, Zaporizhzhia district, with their private house destroyed. Five reports of damaged private houses, cars, and infrastructure objects were received. Ukrainian General Staff reports Russian air strikes on Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Malynivka, Mala Tokmachka, Kamianke, and Shcherbaky. Five Russian attempts to advance occurred near Novodanylivka and Stepove on the Orikhiv direction.
- New: Zaporizhzhia Civilian Injuries Confirmed: Local authorities confirm two people (60-year-old woman and 52-year-old man) were injured in Yurkivka due to a private house hit. Medical assistance has been provided.

Aerial & Naval Activity

Ukrainian Deep Drone Campaign - Expanded Targets: Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, Ivanovo Oblast, confirmed by the regional governor. This marks a significant expansion of Ukrainian long-range strikes into Russian industrial targets. Other drone activity was reported in Yelabuga (Tatarstan), Tula (resulting in power outages), and Moscow. Tsaplienko reports a drone strike on the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, Ivanovo Oblast, which produces explosives. Tsaplienko also reports mass drone attacks on Yelabuga, Tatarstan, where Shaheds are produced. Operatyvnyi ZSU released a video of a UAV falling in Kineshma, confirming the target as the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant. PVO operations were also reported in Aleksin, Tula Oblast, near a chemical plant, and night explosions in Tula targeted NPO "Splav," an MLRS producer.
Russian Domestic Drone Attacks: Ukrainian UAVs were reported in Moscow, Tula, Yelabuga (Tatarstan), and Kineshma (Ivanovo Oblast). The Economist reports that Russia is now sending hundreds of drones, compared to 30 a year ago, with "Geraniums" undergoing a sixth modification and using machine learning. Ukrainian GUR claims Russia will increase production to 500 drones per day, potentially leading to 1000 simultaneous attacking drones. RBC-Ukraine confirms unknown drones attacked Russian regions, leading to "Carpet" plans at airports and a mass blackout in Tula.
Naval Activity: As of 06:00, May 26, 2025, the Ukrainian General Staff confirms no Russian warships or Kalibr missile carriers are present in the Black or Azov Seas. One Russian Kalibr missile carrier with an 8-missile salvo capacity is in the Mediterranean Sea. Kerch Strait traffic involved 10 vessels to the Black Sea (5 to Bosphorus) and 4 vessels to the Azov Sea (3 from Bosphorus). Russia continues to violate SOLAS by disabling AIS.
US Military Aid Shipment: An American cargo vessel, Independence, used for transporting military equipment, has reached the Baltic Sea, likely en route to Germany, Poland, or the Baltics to supply arms to Ukraine or participate in exercises.
New: Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Air Defense: Ukrainian defenders destroyed 3 UAVs overnight over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
New: Widespread Air Alerts and Combined Strikes in Ukraine (Confirmed): RBC-Ukraine reports Russia attacked Ukraine with drones and missiles overnight, with explosions in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 1 missile and 112 air strikes (84 rockets, 189 KABs), and 3005 kamikaze drones used by Russia over the past day. Russian aviation also launched strikes on Osoiyivka (Sumy Oblast), Dovha Balka, Oleksandro-Kalynove, Stepanivka, Novopil (Donetsk Oblast), Novodarivka, Huliaipole, Malynivka, Mala Tokmachka, Kamianke, Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
New: Odesa Oblast - Civilian Infrastructure Damage from Drone Attack: Russian forces attacked Odesa Oblast overnight with UAVs. A residential building (100 sq m) was destroyed by fire in Odesa district. Damaged structures include roofs of residential buildings, outbuildings, 2 garages, 3 cars, a fence, and a gas pipeline. Another address saw 2 garages destroyed by fire, a car destroyed, and a residential building damaged. No casualties reported. The Odesa Oblast Prosecutor's Office initiated an investigation into war crimes (Part 1, Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine) following the attack.

Humanitarian and Social Issues

Russian Internal Security - Financial Measures: Russia plans to implement a limit on bank cards in September 2025, restricting individuals to a maximum of 20 cards overall and 5 cards per bank. This measure is aimed at combating fraudulent schemes involving "droppers."
Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Civilian Casualties: Two civilians (60-year-old woman and 52-year-old man) were injured in Yurkivka, Zaporizhzhia district, due to a Russian attack on a private house, which was destroyed.
- New: Zaporizhzhia Civilian Injuries Confirmed: Local authorities confirm two people (60-year-old woman and 52-year-old man) were injured in Yurkivka due to a private house hit. Medical assistance has been provided.
New: Russian Internal Security - Illegal Fishing in Khabarovsk Krai: Police in Komsomolsk district, Khabarovsk Krai, detained three individuals for illegal fishing during "Operation Putina 2025." Two men (35 and 33) were caught with two live Amur sturgeons (Red Book species) in a fishing net, which were returned to the Amur River. This is an internal law enforcement matter.
New: Ukrainian Public Sentiment Survey (RBC-Ukraine/Rating Group): A new interview with Oleksiy Antypovych, head of the Sociological Group "Rating," discusses Ukrainian public sentiment, including increased trust in Zelenskyy, the "phenomenon" of Zaluzhnyi, acceptable compromises for a peace agreement, public readiness to endure wartime hardships, and the attitudes of refugees abroad toward the Ukrainian government.

Strategic Projections

The immediate strategic picture indicates continued Russian efforts to consolidate territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast, particularly in the Druzhkovskoye direction, where claims of "liquidating the pocket" and controlling Pravdovka and Ignativka suggest a determined advance. The ongoing battles near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and around Orekhovo indicate a persistent Russian push to expand their influence and potentially threaten key logistical hubs. The Ukrainian deep drone campaign continues to evolve, with the strike on the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, Ivanovo Oblast, representing a new and significant targeting of Russia's industrial base far from the frontline. This expansion of targets underscores Ukraine's capability to inflict economic costs and disrupt Russian military-industrial production. The planned Russian bank card limits suggest an internal effort to combat financial illicit activities, which may indirectly impact various informal networks, including those supporting military operations. The absence of Russian Kalibr missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas provides a temporary reprieve from immediate naval missile threats from these waters, though the single Kalibr carrier in the Mediterranean remains a potential long-range threat. Continued Russian violation of SOLAS by disabling AIS systems highlights an ongoing disregard for international maritime regulations and a consistent attempt to conceal their movements.

The continued arrival of US military aid via sea to European ports signifies ongoing international support for Ukraine, reinforcing the notion that the conflict is far from over. Donald Trump's recent public statements, while critical of both Putin and Zelenskyy, reflect a potential shift in US engagement, emphasizing a desire to distance himself from the conflict's origins and potentially pushing for European allies to bear more of the financial burden for military aid, shifting from "free supplies" to "for-money" transactions. The extensive and varied attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including air, drone, MLRS, and artillery strikes resulting in civilian casualties and property damage, underscore the persistent high-intensity nature of the conflict and Russia's continued pressure on civilian infrastructure in frontline regions. The Russian information environment continues to be characterized by daily morale-boosting messages from military bloggers, maintaining a consistent narrative of ongoing operations. The Economist's report on Russia's increasing drone production and sophistication, particularly the use of machine learning, points to a significant and growing aerial threat that will increasingly challenge Ukrainian air defense. The new data on Russian personnel losses (1000 in 24 hours) indicates that Russian ground offensives continue to be costly for them, despite claimed advances. The continuation of training camp activities in Ukraine (46th Airmobile Brigade) shows a sustained effort in force generation to meet these persistent threats. Trump's delay of EU tariffs suggests a more pragmatic, potentially less confrontational approach to EU relations, which could indirectly benefit Ukraine by fostering greater EU-US coordination on other matters, including aid. The widespread combined missile and drone strikes across multiple Ukrainian oblasts underscore Russia's continued aerial campaign aimed at degrading Ukrainian infrastructure and demoralizing the population. The damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa Oblast from overnight drone attacks reinforces the widespread impact of Russian aerial assaults beyond the immediate front lines. ISW's assessment regarding the Kremlin's objectives behind mass strikes indicates a concerted psychological and political warfare campaign aimed at eroding Ukrainian and Western resolve.

Risk Assessment

Operational Risk (Ukraine): High. The confirmed consolidation of Russian gains in the Druzhkovskoye direction, particularly the claimed "liquidating the pocket" and control over Pravdovka and Ignativka, poses a significant threat of further territorial loss and continued attrition. The ongoing battles near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and Orekhovo suggest a critical and potentially escalating threat to Ukrainian lines and logistics in the southern sectors. The ongoing deep drone strikes into Russian industrial facilities, while strategically impactful, carry inherent risks of Russian retaliation and resource expenditure for long-range missions. The extensive attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including 419 strikes in 24 hours, pose a very high operational risk to Ukrainian forces and civilians in the region. Russia's reported ability to field hundreds of drones, potentially increasing to 1000 simultaneously, with machine learning capabilities, poses an extreme and evolving threat to Ukrainian air defense. New data on Russian personnel losses (1000/day) indicates continued high-intensity fighting and attrition, which is a significant operational risk for Ukrainian forces. The continued attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, despite Ukrainian air defense successes, represent a persistent operational risk to civilian infrastructure and economic stability. The widespread combined missile and drone attacks across multiple Ukrainian oblasts represent a high and immediate operational risk to air defenses and critical infrastructure across the country. The significant damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa Oblast from drone attacks further highlights a pervasive and substantial operational risk to Ukrainian rear areas and critical civilian assets.
Operational Risk (Russia): Moderate. Ukrainian deep drone strikes on industrial facilities (e.g., Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant) continue to pose a significant risk to Russia's military-industrial complex and demonstrate Ukraine's persistent ability to strike deep, potentially leading to production disruptions. The continued need for air defense assets to defend against these deep strikes strains Russian resources. The internal financial measures to limit bank cards could impact informal networks, including those supporting military operations, potentially leading to unforeseen logistical or administrative challenges, although this is a systemic rather than immediate operational risk. The logistical demands of sustaining high-volume drone production and deployment will be significant. Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to inflict significant personnel and equipment losses (1000 personnel, 51 artillery, 264 drones, 92 vehicles), representing a high operational risk for Russia's long-term sustainability and ability to project offensive power.
Humanitarian Risk: High. The reported injuries to two civilians in Yurkivka, Zaporizhzhia district, due to a Russian attack on a private house, directly violate ethical principles of civilian protection and international humanitarian law. Russian disregard for SOLAS convention by disabling AIS systems raises ethical concerns regarding transparency and safety in maritime operations. New confirmation of civilian injuries in Zaporizhzhia highlights the ongoing humanitarian toll. The widespread combined missile and drone strikes across multiple Ukrainian oblasts represent a high and immediate humanitarian risk to civilian populations, causing casualties and extensive damage to residential areas and critical infrastructure. The extensive damage to private homes, garages, and other civilian property in Odesa Oblast from drone attacks underscores a significant and direct humanitarian risk to the civilian population from ongoing aerial assaults.
Information Warfare Risk: High. Russian claims of "liquidating the pocket" and consolidating gains in Donetsk Oblast will be heavily leveraged in their information campaign to project success and demoralize Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian reports of successful deep strikes into Russian industrial heartland will be used to demonstrate capability and resilience. The planned Russian bank card limits could become a point of information warfare, with narratives focusing on combating crime versus state control or economic hardship. Donald Trump's statements will be highly influential, potentially used by both sides to shape narratives about international support and the conflict's responsibility. Russian military bloggers' daily morale-boosting messages contribute to a sustained information environment. The Economist's report on increased Russian drone production and sophistication will likely be leveraged by Russia to project strength and overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. New Russian historical propaganda aims to bolster morale and present their actions within a narrative of historical heroism. ISW's assessment regarding the Kremlin's use of mass strikes to demoralize Ukraine and the West highlights a proactive Russian information warfare campaign that requires robust counter-narratives. The survey of Ukrainian public sentiment provides crucial data for tailoring counter-information warfare strategies to maintain public morale and resilience.
Ethical Compliance: Severe. The reported injuries to two civilians in Yurkivka, Zaporizhzhia district, due to a Russian attack on a private house, directly violate ethical principles of civilian protection and international humanitarian law. Russian disregard for SOLAS convention by disabling AIS systems raises ethical concerns regarding transparency and safety in maritime operations. New confirmation of civilian injuries in Zaporizhzhia reinforces ethical violations. The widespread combined missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian cities and infrastructure represent a severe ethical concern, directly violating international humanitarian law and disregarding civilian lives. The damage to civilian infrastructure in Odesa Oblast from drone attacks, resulting in property destruction, constitutes a clear violation of international humanitarian law which prohibits indiscriminate attacks or those targeting civilian objects.
Financial Stability (Russia): Moderate. The new measures to limit bank cards signal an acknowledgment of financial illicit activities, which could be indicative of broader underlying issues within the financial system that the government is attempting to address. This has the potential to impact the informal economy and certain black-market activities. Trump's delay of EU tariffs suggests a temporary reduction in immediate economic pressure from the US, but the overall financial strain from the conflict remains.

Resource Allocation Considerations

Frontline Defensive Reinforcement (Ukraine): Prioritize additional resources (manpower, equipment, and defensive fortifications) to the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and Orekhovo areas to counter persistent Russian advances and counterattacks. Consolidate defenses in the Druzhkovskoye direction to prevent further Russian breakthroughs following their claimed gains. Given the extensive attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast, substantial reinforcement and defensive measures are critical to protect both military and civilian targets in that region. Given the reports of heavy fighting and multiple attacks on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, significant reinforcement of personnel and defensive structures is critical to hold these lines.
Long-Range Strike Capabilities (Ukraine): Continue to invest in and utilize long-range drone capabilities to target key Russian industrial facilities, including chemical plants and production sites for military equipment, in areas like Kineshma, Ivanovo Oblast, and Yelabuga, Tatarstan. Assess the impact of these strikes and adapt targeting strategies accordingly.
Humanitarian Aid & Civilian Protection (Ukraine): Provide immediate medical and psychological support to the injured civilians in Yurkivka, Zaporizhzhia district. Assess and allocate resources for the reconstruction of damaged civilian infrastructure in affected areas. Increase resources for civilian protection and emergency response in Zaporizhzhia Oblast given the high volume of attacks. Allocate resources for emergency response and repair in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Rapidly assess and respond to widespread civilian casualties and damage in areas affected by the combined missile and drone strikes, prioritizing medical aid, emergency services, and temporary shelter. Provide immediate humanitarian assistance and support for the reconstruction of damaged civilian homes and property in Odesa Oblast, ensuring rapid response to affected communities.
Counter-Information Warfare (Ukraine): Develop and actively disseminate evidence-based counter-narratives to Russian claims of territorial gains and alleged successes, ensuring transparency and accuracy. Develop strategic messaging to respond to Donald Trump's statements, aiming to maintain and strengthen international support by emphasizing shared values and the necessity of continued aid. Develop strong counter-narratives to Russian psychological operations, including those aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian forces or discrediting their leadership. Develop specific counter-narratives to Russian claims about the purpose of mass strikes, emphasizing their terroristic nature and targeting of civilians, in line with ISW's assessment. Leverage insights from public sentiment surveys to tailor messaging that reinforces national resilience and commitment to resistance.
Naval Monitoring (Ukraine): Continuously monitor Russian naval activity in the Black and Azov Seas, particularly any changes in the presence of Kalibr missile carriers, and adapt defensive postures as needed. Continue to highlight Russian violations of international maritime conventions.
Air Defense Enhancement (Ukraine): Prioritize the acquisition and deployment of advanced air defense systems capable of countering the increasing volume and sophistication of Russian drone attacks, particularly those utilizing machine learning. Continue to allocate resources for effective air defense in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, given the persistent aerial threats. Rapidly deploy and enhance air defense assets across all major cities and critical infrastructure to counter the widespread combined missile and drone attacks. Prioritize the protection of major urban centers (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv) from such large-scale aerial assaults.
Cybersecurity & Information Assurance (Russia): The new bank card limits suggest a focus on financial security. This might require Russian entities involved in military procurement to find alternative, less traceable financial channels.
New: Force Generation and Training (Ukraine): Allocate continuous resources for military training and force generation programs, as demonstrated by the 46th Airmobile Brigade's "zero day" activities, to ensure a steady supply of trained personnel for the front.

Operational Workflow Updates

Data Collection and Preprocessing:

Ground Truth Verification: Document and verify Russian claims of liquidating the "Kalinovka Pocket" and controlling Pravdovka (Stara Mykolaivka) and Ignativka, including any visual evidence. Document ongoing clearing operations in Zorya-Oleksiyivka. Document Russian preparations to advance on Alexandrop-Kalinovo and Katerynivka. Document details of ongoing battles in Novosergeevka and near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and Orekhovo, including Ukrainian counterattacks with armored vehicles. Document Russian claims of controlling the pond area in Serebryanka Gully. Document all reported Russian attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including air strikes, FPV drone attacks, MLRS, and artillery strikes, and details of injured civilians and damaged infrastructure in Yurkivka. Document destruction of Ukrainian fortifications on Polohskoye direction. Document Ukrainian General Staff's report on 180 combat engagements, including 63 on Pokrovsk and 24 on Novopavlivka directions, and their outcomes.
Drone Analysis: Document the confirmed strike on the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, Ivanovo Oblast, including governor's statements and any visual evidence. Document reports of drones in Yelabuga, Tula, and Moscow. Integrate The Economist's report on Russian drone production, modifications (machine learning), and future projections.
- New: Document video footage of the UAV fall in Kineshma. Document reports of PVO activity near chemical plants in Aleksin, Tula Oblast, and attacks on NPO "Splav" in Tula. Document the widespread combined missile and drone attacks across Kyiv, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, including reported explosions and damage.
- New: Document details of drone attacks on Odesa Oblast, including destroyed residential building, damaged roofs, outbuildings, garages, cars, fences, and gas pipelines, and the initiation of war crime investigations.
Naval Activity: Document the Ukrainian General Staff's report on the absence of Russian warships and Kalibr missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas as of May 26, 06:00. Document the presence of the single Kalibr missile carrier in the Mediterranean Sea. Document Kerch Strait traffic and confirmed Russian violations of SOLAS by disabling AIS systems.
Personnel Data: Document the TASS report on the Ukrainian serviceman, Georgy Karakulin, refusing exchange and requesting Russian citizenship, noting the source. Document the "Good morning" messages from Archangel Spetsnaza and Fighterbomber as routine operational status indicators.
- New: Document Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian personnel eliminated (1000), artillery systems (51), drones (264), and automotive equipment (92). Document the training activities of the 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade.
Economic and Internal Security Data: Document the planned implementation of bank card limits in Russia in September, including the stated purpose (combating "droppers") and specific restrictions (20 cards total, 5 per bank).
- New: Document Trump's decision to delay the 50% tariff against the EU, including confirmations from Ursula von der Leyen.
- New: Document law enforcement reports on illegal fishing and related detentions in Khabarovsk Krai.
International Aid Data: Document the arrival of the Independence cargo vessel in the Baltic Sea and its likely destination/purpose for military aid delivery.
Political Statements: Document Donald Trump's latest public statements regarding the conflict, including his criticisms of Putin and Zelenskyy, and his stance on the war's origins and funding.
- New: Document ISW's assessment regarding the Kremlin's strategic objectives behind mass strikes on Ukraine.
New: Zaporizhzhia Civilian Casualties: Cross-reference ASTRA's and OWA's reports confirming two injured civilians (60-year-old woman and 52-year-old man) in Yurkivka and their receiving medical attention.
New: Dnipropetrovsk Damage Assessment: Document the successful destruction of 3 UAVs overnight. Document damage to multi-story and private houses and vehicles in Nikopol and Marganetska communities from Grad MLRS, artillery, and UAVs. Document damage to two houses in Malomykhailivska community from an FPV drone. Document damage to four private houses in Novopavlivska community from yesterday's KAB strikes.
New: Russian Historical Propaganda: Document Basurin's historical post about the brig "Mercury" as a part of Russian information operations.
New: Ukrainian Public Sentiment Data: Document key findings and analyses from the RBC-Ukraine/Rating Group interview on Ukrainian public sentiment, including trust in leaders, willingness to compromise, and attitudes of refugees.

Analysis and Modeling:

Offensive Trajectory Modeling: Refine predictive models for Russian offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast, specifically on the Druzhkovskoye direction, incorporating the claimed "liquidation of the pocket" and control over Pravdovka and Ignativka. Analyze the potential for further Russian advances on Alexandrop-Kalinovo and Katerynivka. Analyze the implications of ongoing battles in Novosergeevka and near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and Orekhovo for Ukrainian defensive strategies and Russian objectives. Analyze the intensity and patterns of Russian attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast to predict future ground and aerial pressure points. Analyze UAV operations on the Polohskoye direction. Analyze the high number of combat engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, to assess Russian strategic intent and resource commitment.
Drone Effectiveness Modeling: Evaluate the impact of the strike on the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, Ivanovo Oblast, on Russian industrial capacity. Assess the overall effectiveness of Ukrainian deep strikes into new industrial targets within Russia. Refine models for countering high-volume and machine learning-enabled Russian drone attacks. Analyze the impact of widespread combined missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian air defense capabilities and the effectiveness of current countermeasures. Analyze the impact of drone attacks on civilian infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, assessing the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense in that region and the type of drones used.
Naval Threat Assessment: Re-evaluate the immediate naval threat posed by Russian forces in the Black and Azov Seas given the reported absence of Kalibr missile carriers, while maintaining vigilance for changes in deployment and the threat from the Mediterranean.
Financial Impact Analysis (Russia): Analyze the potential economic impact of the new bank card limits on informal financial networks and their effect on activities related to the conflict.
Information Warfare Analysis: Analyze the information warfare narratives emerging from Russian claims of consolidated territorial gains and the TASS report on the Ukrainian serviceman, Karakulin. Assess the effectiveness of these narratives in shaping public opinion. Analyze the framing and potential impact of Donald Trump's recent statements on domestic and international audiences, including potential implications for US aid policy.
- New: Analyze ISW's assessment of Russian strategic objectives behind mass strikes, integrating this perspective into understanding Russia's information warfare campaign.
- New: Analyze Ukrainian public sentiment data to inform counter-information warfare strategies aimed at maintaining morale and support.
International Logistics & Aid Flow Analysis: Assess the impact of ongoing US military aid shipments via sea on Ukraine's overall capabilities and the political signaling of continued support.
New: Russian Attrition Analysis: Analyze the impact of continued high Russian personnel and equipment losses on their combat effectiveness and long-term sustainability.
New: Dnipropetrovsk Attack Analysis: Analyze the patterns and impact of Russian attacks on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, assessing the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense and the vulnerability of civilian infrastructure.
New: Training Effectiveness: Analyze the effectiveness of the training programs showcased by the 46th Airmobile Brigade in preparing new recruits for combat.
New: Trade Policy Impact: Analyze the implications of Trump's delayed tariffs on EU-US economic relations and potential effects on broader Western support for Ukraine.

Reporting and Visualization:

Dynamic Frontline Maps: Update detailed maps to reflect the claimed "liquidation of the pocket" in the Druzhkovskoye direction and Russian control over Pravdovka (Stara Mykolaivka) and Ignativka. Visually represent ongoing clearing operations in Zorya-Oleksiyivka and Russian preparations for advances on Alexandrop-Kalinovo and Katerynivka. Update maps to show ongoing battles in Novosergeevka and near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and Orekhovo, including the claimed Russian control of the pond area in Serebryanka Gully. Illustrate the extent of Russian attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including specific attack types and documented damage/casualties in Yurkivka. Highlight areas of drone operations on the Polohskoye direction. Update maps to reflect current combat engagements and their outcomes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff for all relevant directions (Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Huliaipole, Orikhiv, Prydniprovske, Kursk).
Drone Activity Heatmaps: Generate visualizations of recent Ukrainian drone activity over Russian territory, including the confirmed strike on the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, Ivanovo Oblast, and other reported locations (Yelabuga, Tula, Moscow). Illustrate the scale of Russian air defense responses against these attacks. Highlight the locations and impacts of reported drone activity in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Visualize the widespread combined missile and drone strikes across Kyiv, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, including confirmed impacts and damage. Visualize the scope and impact of drone attacks on civilian infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, including specific damage locations.
Naval Presence Overlays: Provide visualizations of Russian naval presence in the Black and Azov Seas, specifically showing the absence of Kalibr missile carriers and the presence of one in the Mediterranean Sea.
Personnel & Equipment Loss Trackers: Create visual dashboards tracking Russian personnel and equipment losses, incorporating the latest official figures (1000 personnel, 51 artillery systems, 264 drones, 92 units of automotive equipment eliminated).
Strategic Threat Assessments: Provide regular briefings on the implications of Donald Trump's statements on Ukraine and US aid policy. Include analysis of the potential impact of Russian internal financial measures on their war economy. Assess the implications of escalating Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian industrial infrastructure. Integrate ISW's analysis of Russian strategic objectives for mass strikes into threat assessments.
International Support Dashboards: Visualize the status of international aid and diplomatic stances, highlighting the arrival of US military aid shipments and any shifts in economic policy towards the EU.
Internal Stability Indicators: Present reports on Russian internal security issues and the social impact of the conflict on their population, including the new bank card limits.
Civilian Impact Reports: Generate detailed reports and visualizations of civilian casualties and damaged infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Yurkivka). Include reports on property damage in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from Grad MLRS, artillery, FPV drones, and KABs. Provide detailed reports and visualizations on civilian infrastructure damage in Odesa Oblast from drone attacks.
New: Training Camp Activities Visualization: Create visual content showcasing the training activities of the 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade to highlight ongoing force generation efforts.
New: Historical Propaganda Analysis Visualization: Visually represent the themes and intent behind Russian historical propaganda (e.g., Basurin's post on "Mercury") and its role in information warfare.
New: Public Sentiment Reports: Generate reports and visualizations of Ukrainian public sentiment, based on survey data, to inform strategic communications and policy adjustments.

Feedback Loop:

Frontline Feedback: Establish direct feedback channels with units engaged in current ground operations in the Druzhkovskoye, Dnipropetrovsk, Polohskoye, Shakhtersk, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia directions to validate intelligence on Russian advances and tactical changes. Seek feedback on the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense and the impact of Russian combined attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Gather feedback from frontline units regarding the intensity and nature of combat engagements on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions.
Drone Development Feedback: Maintain close coordination with Ukrainian drone developers and operational units to continuously improve drone capabilities and countermeasures, especially against modified Russian drones and in response to widespread aerial attacks.
Naval Operations Feedback: Establish feedback mechanisms with naval intelligence and operational units regarding Russian naval activity and potential threats in the Black, Azov, and Mediterranean Seas.
Humanitarian Feedback: Collect feedback from organizations and local authorities regarding civilian casualties and needs in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Receive real-time feedback from emergency services and medical facilities in areas affected by widespread missile and drone strikes (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts) to refine civilian protection protocols and humanitarian response. Gather immediate feedback from local authorities and emergency services in Odesa Oblast regarding civilian needs and damage assessment following drone attacks.
Diplomatic Channels: Solicit feedback from diplomatic partners on the impact of Donald Trump's statements and any shifts in economic policy (EU tariffs).
Public Sentiment Monitoring: Continuously monitor public and social media sentiment in Ukraine and Russia to gauge the impact of operational and information warfare, including reactions to Russian claims of territorial gains, Ukrainian deep strikes, and political statements. Monitor public reaction to new Russian historical propaganda narratives. Integrate ongoing analysis of Ukrainian public sentiment data (e.g., from RBC-Ukraine/Rating Group) into the feedback loop to ensure strategic communication and policy are aligned with public perceptions and resilience.
Anti-Corruption Feedback: Establish direct channels for reporting and receiving feedback on anti-corruption efforts, ensuring transparency and accountability.

Situation Report