Operational Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine Focus

Major Updates

Prisoner Exchange Progress: The first stage of the "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange has concluded, resulting in 390 Ukrainians released (270 military, 120 civilian). The exchange, facilitated by Belarus, is confirmed by President Zelenskyy and the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, with more releases anticipated. Ukraine also released 70 collaborators to Russia to secure civilian hostages. Russian sources confirm 390 prisoners, noting some returned individuals were "detained for sabotage or terrorist attacks" or forcibly removed civilians. This significant humanitarian and diplomatic step is ongoing.
Russian Claims of Advance in Donetsk Oblast: Russian Vostok Group of Forces claims the liberation of Otradnoye (Donetsk Oblast), covering over 10 sq km and consolidating positions towards Komar. They also report repelling four Ukrainian counterattacks and advancing up to 1 km in depth towards Komar. Russian forces also claim advancements on the Konstantinovka direction, including reaching Novaya Poltavka, and advancing towards Popova Yar and Romanovka.
Ukrainian Deep Strike Confirmed with Russian Retaliation Vow: The head of Lipetsk Oblast publicly confirmed the Ukrainian attack on Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, and stated that Russian artillery divisions have "promised to respond" accurately and destructively. This underscores the impact of the strike on the PJSC "Energiya" plant.
Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Development: Ukraine reports the development of a "Shahed-like" drone named "Batyar" with a range of over 800 km and an 18 kg warhead. Additionally, a new version of the V2U drone with a two-stroke gasoline engine (increasing range) is reportedly attacking Odessa.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Military Personnel in Vasylivka Confirmed: ASTRA confirms the death of four Russian servicemen and one injury from the 135th Motor Rifle Regiment in an alleged Ukrainian drone attack in occupied Vasylivka, contradicting initial Russian reports of only civilian casualties.
JPMorgan Report on War Outcome Scenarios: JPMorgan's geopolitical center predicts a ceasefire by the end of Q2 (July), outlining "Georgian" (Ukraine unstable, returns to Russia's sphere) and "Israeli" (Ukraine militarized with Western security guarantees) scenarios as most likely.
EU Militarization Funding Approved: EU Ambassadors have approved a €150 billion special fund for the "militarization of Europe" as part of an €800 billion "ReArm Europe" program, indicating a significant, long-term commitment to strengthening European defense.
Russian "Triple Chokehold" Tactic: The Telegraph reports Russia is employing a new tactic combining ground attacks, drone strikes, and glide bombs to achieve slow, steady advances by pinning down Ukrainian forces and destroying fortifications.
Russian Airstrike on Ukrainian Airfield: Colonelcassad reports a Russian strike on a Ukrainian airfield with light-engine aircraft near Barkovo, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports striking a forward command post of the Russian 3rd Army Corps in occupied Bakhmut.
Commander Dismissed for "Sharp Deterioration": The commander of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade was dismissed due to a "sharp deterioration of the situation" and "unreliable reports," signaling high-level accountability.
New Allegations Regarding Andriy Portnov Assassination: Ukrainian and Russian sources claim Andriy Portnov (former Yanukovych advisor), assassinated in Madrid, was in Ukraine meeting with high-ranking officials before his death, suggesting a potential political motive.
Russian Ground Operations on Kupiansk Direction: Russian forces of the 121st regiment, 68th division (West Group of Forces) are reportedly targeting Ukrainian equipment and assault troops on the Kupiansk direction, utilizing fiber-optic FPV drone control systems.
Russian Artillery and Drone Activity in Border Regions: Russian artillery and FPV drone units are actively striking Ukrainian positions in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts, including in Shostka and Chuhuiv districts, aiming to establish a buffer zone.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

Donetsk Oblast:
- Otradnoye (South Donetsk direction): Russian "Vostok" Group of Forces claims liberation, consolidating positions towards Komar, covering 10 sq km. They report repelling 4 Ukrainian counterattacks and advancing up to 1 km. DeepState reports dynamic battles for Bahatyr, with Russian "motorcycle assaults" and Ukrainian counter-cleaning operations. Russian MoD also reports successful "rapid assault" on Novoolenovka using motorcycles.
- Toretsk Direction: Video shows challenging combat conditions. Ukrainian forces repelled 16 Russian attacks. A Russian military blogger claims Toretsk is "practically cleared."
- Pokrovsk Direction: Intense fighting reported, with Russian claims of mass destruction of NATO equipment and high Ukrainian activity. Ukrainian 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade's "BULAVA" FPV drone unit is active. Ukrainian General Staff claims strike on Russian 3rd Army Corps command post in Bakhmut impacting operations here. Russian forces claim advances up to 2 km deep near Novaya Poltavka and are attacking Popova Yar, Old Nikolaevka, and Romanovka, advancing up to 12.5 km² towards Shevchenko First.
- Siversk Direction: Russian paratroopers clearing forest zones, with claims of tactical successes and increased control (up to 300m along front, 200m in depth) near Ivan-Darivka and Verkhnokamyanske, mostly contested grey zones. Ukrainian SIGNUM battalion "hunting" Russian drone operators in Serebryansky forestry.
- General Donetsk: Russian sources use UMPK guided aerial bombs. Colonelcassad claims mass losses for Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade and 47th Mechanized Brigade. Russian forces claim advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian General Staff reported 144 combat engagements, 54 on Pokrovsk direction.
Kherson Oblast: Local Ukrainian source criticizes authorities for grass cutting amidst drone threats, advocating for drone countermeasures. Russian forces repelled 1 Ukrainian assault near Antonivskyi bridges. A Russian source claims destruction of a Ukrainian equipment hangar near the Dnipro River.
Orlovska Oblast (Russia): Russian Mi-8 military helicopter crashed, killing crew, due to technical malfunction.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Pro-Russian sources claim Russian 90th Tank Division reached administrative border, but Ukrainian authorities (Serhiy Lysak) and DeepState.UA deny, labeling as fakes. Russian forces launched drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Hrushivka communities, injuring a 22-year-old girl and damaging infrastructure. Russian strike on a Ukrainian airfield near Barkovo reported.
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Russian forces repel Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate and establish positions. Some of the 120 civilian prisoners returned to Russia were from Kursk Oblast. Russian sources report urgent fundraising for drones and thermal imagers on the Kursk front near Tetkino, indicating active combat. Russian artillery and FPV drone units are active in the region.
Sumy Oblast: Colonelcassad claims Russian forces approaching Yunakivka and expanding drone operations south. Successful "Lancet" strike on a Ukrainian artillery piece in Pavlovka. Russian sources claim an "Iskander" strike on a Ukrainian training camp near Shostka, claiming significant casualties. Ukrainian sources report KAB launches and concerns about troop concentrations. Russian artillery and FPV drone units are active in the region.
Kharkiv Oblast: 3rd Separate Assault Brigade reports effective drone strikes on Russian heavy armored vehicles. Russian sources emphasize Ukrainian losses near Volchanskie Khutora and Tikhoe. Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB launches. Russian forces of the 121st regiment, 68th division are active on the Kupiansk direction. Russian artillery and FPV drone units are active in the region.
Poltava Oblast (Kremenchuk): Russian drone attacks on private sector, with emergency crews coming under secondary fire.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Vasylivka): ASTRA confirms four Russian servicemen killed in a Ukrainian drone attack. Stability point of 128th Separate Mountain Assault Transcarpathian Brigade established on Zaporizhzhia direction for combat medics.

Aerial & Naval Activity

Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: New "Shahed-like" "Batyar" drone (800 km range, 18 kg warhead) and new gasoline-powered V2U drone attacking Odessa (increased range). Ukrainian 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade's "BULAVA" FPV unit effective against armor. SIGNUM battalion "hunting" Russian drone operators. Ukrainian FPV drones destroy Russian vehicles on the Kupiansk direction, aided by "Groza Leska" fiber-optic control system. Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Tor-M2 air defense system in the Tavria direction using drone drops.
Russian Air Activity: Videos show UMPK guided aerial bombs. Animated scheme of Russian strikes on May 22-23 (Uman, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi) from Geran/Gerbera drones and Iskander-M missiles. Russian MoD claims "Sever Group" drone operators destroying Ukrainian combat groups. Colonelcassad reports strike on Ukrainian airfield near Barkovo. Russian Foreign Ministry claims 788 Ukrainian UAV and Western missile attacks on Russian territory between May 20-23. WarGonzo's "Somali" battalion destroying "Baba Yaga" drones. Successful "Lancet" strike in Pavlovka, Sumy Oblast. Russian forces launched drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Hrushivka. Russian tactical aviation active on northeastern direction with threat of aviation weapons. Russian artillery and FPV drone units are active in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
Ukrainian Air Defense Success: 79th Air Assault Brigade shot down 7 Russian reconnaissance UAVs (5 Supercams, 2 Zalas). Unconfirmed video shows Russian forces using small arms to shoot down Ukrainian UAVs. Ukrainian "Charlie" company and "Black Forest" detected and destroyed Russian command vehicle and three air defense systems (Tor, Buk-M3, S-300) in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian Anti-Drone Technology: Rostec will present new "IGLA" anti-drone cartridges (IGLA 30, 50, 100, Tracer 75) at MILEX-2025. WarGonzo's "Somali" battalion destroying "Baba Yaga" drones.
Russian Industrial Zone Fire: Fire reported in Kotelniki, Moscow Oblast; link to Ukrainian drone attacks unconfirmed.
Alleged F-16 Friendly Fire Incident: Unconfirmed report alleges Ukrainian F-16AM shot down Ukrainian Su-27S1M near Moshny, Cherkasy region, on April 28.
Massive Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russia (Confirmed & Escalating): Russian MoD claims 105 Ukrainian UAVs shot down overnight across various Russian regions (35 over Moscow, 14 Oryol, 12 Kursk, 11 Belgorod, 10 Tula, 9 Kaluga, 7 Voronezh, 3 Lipetsk, 3 Smolensk, 1 Bryansk). Tula Governor confirmed two injured and damage. Ryazan refinery fire confirmed by NASA FIRMS. Unconfirmed reports of drone hitting Patriot Park pavilion in Podolsk.
Renewed Russian Drone Activity in Kyiv: Enemy drones directly over Kyiv, prompting air raid alerts and explosions. Debris from UAV fell on school in Darnytskyi district, no casualties.

Humanitarian & Social Issues

Prisoner Exchange: Successful first stage of "1000 for 1000" exchange (390 Ukrainians released), ongoing. Medical, psychological, financial support provided. Ukraine released 70 collaborators to Russia. Russian sources confirm reciprocal exchange, including 20 Kurians (civilians from Kursk Oblast). Coordination Headquarters held panel on documenting POW experiences.
WHO Aid to Zaporizhzhia: WHO delegation provided over $1 million in aid, mobile clinics, and training. Zaporizhzhia ODA announced meeting for "barrier-free business."
Digital Service Interruption (Ukraine): "Diia" and "Driver's Cabinet" services temporarily unavailable May 24-27 for maintenance.
Kharkiv Accessibility: Kharkiv ODA implementing barrier-free space strategy (161 adapted access points, mobile cases, social services for disabled children).
Russian Internal Security: FSB claims foiled terrorist plot in Kaliningrad. MVD reports Telegram bot scams for "Gosuslugi" accounts. Alleged detention for military service registration raids.
Cultural Initiatives (Ukraine): "Book Arsenal" event in Kyiv (May 29 - June 1) featuring historical discussions and discounted books.
Russian Social Impact of War: Death of 18-year-old in North Ossetia by returning recidivist and mother's subsequent death highlight social consequences. Lieutenant Colonel Sergey Serditov ("714th"), commander of 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment, killed by drone; implicated in murder of mobilized soldier. Neglect of military cemeteries in Vanino, Khabarovsk Krai. Shooting incident in Voronezh Oblast near train station, one injured.
Russian Civilian Casualties: Russian Foreign Ministry claims multiple civilian casualties from recent Ukrainian attacks (Panteleimonovka, Vasylivka, Yelets, Lvgov). Governor of Tula confirmed two injured and damage from UAV attack.
Sudan Conflict Analysis (Rybar): Detailed geopolitical analysis of Sudan conflict, highlighting international and regional actors. Also reports "expulsion" of governor in Syria.
Ukrainian Rehabilitation: Kryvyi Rih opened renovated rehabilitation department with radon baths. Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, in cooperation with UNICEF, launched a mobile application "Social Services of Kharkiv Oblast" to provide accessible social services.
Internal Ukrainian Resistance and Recruitment Challenges: Military official assaulted during conscription duties. SBU neutralized Russian attempts to recruit teenagers for arson attacks. MP reports 45,000 men illegally left Ukraine, 30,000 detained. Concerns about quality of mobilized personnel (only 5-6% combat-ready).
Ukrainian Fundraising Challenges: "CyberBoroshno" reports significant gap between requested FPV drones and funds raised.
Kremenchuk Civilian Impact: Emergency crews evacuating residents came under secondary fire from Russian UAVs.
Alley of Defenders of Ukraine: Opened in Kyiv on Marine Infantry Day, symbolizing resistance and sacrifice.
Russian Military Nurse Awarded: A nurse from Moscow region, Lyudmila Bolilaya, received injuries while saving a wounded serviceman, presented for state award.
Russian Space Launch: Soyuz-2.1b carrier missile successfully launched, spacecraft placed into target orbit.

Strategic Outlook

The ongoing prisoner exchange is a critical humanitarian success and demonstrates a limited capacity for high-level cooperation between Ukraine and Russia, even as broader peace negotiations remain stalled. This, coupled with the return of collaborators, highlights the complex diplomatic landscape.

Militarily, Russia continues to press ground offensives in Donetsk Oblast, claiming tactical gains in Otradnoye and on the Konstantinovka direction, and employing new tactics like motorcycle assaults. The sustained and intensifying Russian aerial campaign, especially the massive drone attack across multiple Russian oblasts and the renewed threats to Kyiv, underscores their intent to degrade Ukrainian infrastructure and morale, and to create a "buffer zone" in border regions. Ukraine's confirmed deep strikes on Russian military-industrial targets (Lipetsk) and personnel (Vasylivka), and the publicly vowed Russian retaliation, signal an escalating long-range conflict. Ukraine's continued innovation in long-range drone technology ("Batyar," gasoline-powered V2U) will enhance its asymmetric strike capabilities.

The JPMorgan report's speculative outcomes, while external, could influence Western policy and narratives regarding the conflict's endgame. The substantial EU militarization funding signals a long-term commitment to strengthening European defense capabilities. Russian statements regarding Ukraine's sovereignty and the internal political dynamics in Russia (integrating military personnel into civilian roles, social issues with returning combatants) reveal their strategic ambitions and domestic challenges. The alleged Portnov assassination adds a layer of political intrigue with potential broader implications.

The conflict remains a high-intensity, multi-domain struggle. While humanitarian progress offers a glimmer of hope, the core military objectives of both sides appear unchanged. Both sides continue to adapt their tactics and technology, with drones playing an increasingly pivotal role in all aspects of warfare. The continued information warfare, internal political maneuvering, and broader international implications (e.g., US G20 stance, sanctions on Israel) will continue to shape the trajectory of the conflict.

Risk Assessment

Humanitarian Risk: Moderately mitigated by prisoner exchange. High risk remains from Russian attacks on civilians (Kremenchuk secondary strikes, Dnipropetrovsk casualties, claimed Russian civilian casualties), and alleged war crimes.
Operational Risk (Ukraine): High due to claimed Russian ground advances, high attrition rates, and persistent aerial threats. Challenges include maintaining force protection against evolving Russian drone tactics ("triple chokehold"), managing internal recruitment and funding shortfalls for critical equipment, and integrating new Western assets (potential F-16 friendly fire).
Operational Risk (Russia): Increased due to successful Ukrainian deep strikes, prompting public retaliation vows. Non-combat losses and internal issues (discipline, returning convicts, lack of accountability) present significant challenges. Sustained drone attacks on Russian territory, including on infrastructure and military sites, demonstrate increasing Ukrainian capabilities to inflict costs on the Russian home front.
Information Warfare Risk: High for both sides, with continued efforts to manipulate narratives, discredit opponents, and influence international perceptions. The Portnov assassination allegations present a significant new information warfare front.
Economic & Social Stability (Ukraine): Moderate, with ongoing support efforts but vulnerability from digital service disruptions and the impacts of ongoing attacks.
Economic & Social Stability (Russia): Challenges from social impact of returning combatants, internal security threats, and the need for localized support structures for forces. Public perception of deep strikes.
Western Unity: Potential for divergence in strategic outlook (JPMorgan report, Hungarian stance) but strengthened by new EU military funding and continued sanctions discussions.
Regional Instability (Global): US VP's statements on global power shifts and Russian actions in other regions (Sudan, Syria) indicate broader geopolitical fluidity.

Resource Allocation Considerations

POW Support: Prioritize medical, psychological, and financial support for released Ukrainians.
Long-Range Strike & Counter-Strike: Continue investment in and deployment of long-range drones ("Batyar," V2U) for deep strikes. Enhance air defense and counter-UAV systems, including kinetic options, to counter Russian drone threats and aerial attacks.
Frontline Defensive Reinforcement: Prioritize reserves and equipment for key sectors (Donetsk Oblasts), especially against Russian advancements and new tactics. Develop and implement countermeasures to the "triple chokehold" tactic.
Force Protection & OPSEC: Immediately implement and review OPSEC protocols for all military locations. Enhance counter-UAV and force protection measures in frontline and rear areas, including for emergency responders.
International Advocacy: Sustain diplomatic efforts to ensure continued, comprehensive Western support, counter detrimental narratives, and leverage new EU military funding.
Manpower & Recruitment: Address internal mobilization challenges, improve recruitment quality, and explore alternative funding for critical equipment.
Internal Discipline & Accountability: Address alleged war crimes and misconduct within military ranks to uphold international standards and morale.
Digital Infrastructure Security: Ensure robust cybersecurity measures for critical digital services.

Operational Workflow Updates

Data Collection and Preprocessing:

Prisoner Exchange: Collect and verify all official and unofficial reports on the exchange, focusing on numbers, conditions, identities, and the role of Belarus. Gather details on Ukrainian collaborators exchanged. Monitor Russian claims about "political prisoners" and captured civilians.
Ground Control Verification: Prioritize satellite imagery, drone feeds, and human intelligence for verifying Russian claims of liberation in Otradnoye and advances on the Konstantinovka direction. Cross-reference Russian casualty figures (Vasylivka) with Ukrainian reports.
Drone Capabilities: Collect all available technical specifications, production timelines, and deployment plans for "Batyar" and the new V2U variant.
Deep Strike Analysis: Monitor Russian responses and BDA for Ukrainian deep strikes (Lipetsk, Bakhmut command post, Tula, Ryazan refinery).
Information Warfare Analysis: Systematically collect and analyze all information on alleged atrocities (Kursk Oblast), corruption claims, and political narratives (Portnov assassination, Trump statements, Lavrov's comments).
Military Aid & Policy: Collect detailed information on EU military funding, US policy shifts, and any new sanctions.
Terrain Challenges: Integrate data on weather and terrain conditions impacting mobility.
Internal Russian Issues: Collect data on social incidents involving returning convicts, military appointments, and alleged internal security efforts.
Aerial Activity: Collect detailed reports on Russian drone and KAB launches, including their trajectories and targets, and Ukrainian air defense responses.

Analysis and Modeling:

Prisoner Exchange Impact: Model the logistical and psychological impacts, including reintegration and diplomatic implications.
Ground Offensive Projection: Update models to project Russian offensive trajectories and objectives in Donetsk Oblast, assess Ukrainian defensive requirements, and analyze the effectiveness of new Russian tactics (motorcycle assaults, "triple chokehold").
Long-Range Strike Effectiveness: Refine models for optimal targeting and damage assessment of Ukrainian long-range drones, incorporating "Batyar's" capabilities and the V2U's extended range.
Information Warfare Strategy: Analyze Russian and Ukrainian information operations for key narratives and their potential impact. Develop counter-narratives for disinformation.
Western Aid & Policy Influences: Analyze the potential impact of external reports and political statements on future Western aid and diplomatic approaches.
Local Governance Optimization: Develop recommendations for optimizing resource allocation and prioritization for local Ukrainian authorities, with a focus on force protection and civilian safety against aerial threats.
Manpower & Attrition: Refine Ukrainian manpower assessment models based on Russian claims and verified losses.
Air Asset Integration: If the F-16 friendly fire incident is verified, analyze the implications for pilot training, IFF systems, and air traffic control procedures.
Geopolitical Alignment: Analyze Russian geopolitical statements and activities in other regions (Sudan, Syria) for insights into their broader strategic priorities.

Reporting and Visualization:

Prisoner Exchange Dashboard: Create a dynamic dashboard tracking progress, identities, and support provided.
Updated Frontline Maps: Continuously update detailed maps showing claimed Russian advances and Ukrainian defensive lines, highlighting areas of intense combat and the impact of new tactics.
Deep Strike Effectiveness Reports: Generate reports on the confirmed impact of Ukrainian deep strikes, including BDA and strategic implications.
New Drone Capability Briefs: Prepare technical and operational briefs on new Ukrainian drones.
Western Policy Impact Briefs: Provide regular briefings on the implications of changing Western rhetoric and aid for Ukraine's strategic planning.
Information Warfare Analysis Report: Produce comprehensive reports on Russian and Ukrainian information operations, including analysis of narratives, intended audiences, and potential impact.
Command Accountability Briefs: Prepare briefs on significant command changes and their stated reasons for internal review.

Feedback Loop:

Prisoner Support Feedback: Establish channels with released prisoners to assess needs and improve rehabilitation programs.
Frontline Unit Feedback: Maintain constant feedback with ground units to verify Russian advances, refine tactical responses, and assess the effectiveness of Ukrainian countermeasures.
Drone Development Feedback: Direct feedback loop with drone developers for continuous improvement based on operational insights.
International Partner Feedback: Engage actively with international partners to address concerns and ensure sustained support.
Local Authority Feedback: Formal feedback mechanism with local administrations to ensure effective security measures and civilian protection.
Counter-Disinformation Feedback: Collect feedback on the effectiveness of counter-disinformation campaigns.
Air Force Feedback: (If F-16 incident confirmed) Establish feedback loop with Air Force command and pilots to refine operational procedures.

Situation Report