Operational Intelligence Briefing Update

Major Updates

Prisoner Exchange Confirmed and Underway with Further Details: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, and the General Staff of the AFU (via Oleg Syniehubov, Serhiy Lysak) confirm the successful first stage of the "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange, with 390 Ukrainians released (270 military, 120 civilian). Visuals show freed Ukrainians' first steps on Ukrainian soil and an individual (Anton from Pavlohrad) making a phone call to his girlfriend. The released include service members from various branches (Armed Forces, Navy, Air Assault Forces, Territorial Defense Forces, National Guard, Border Guard Service) who defended Ukrainian territory across multiple fronts. These individuals have health problems, severe wounds, and injuries, and will receive medical, psychological, and financial support. The exchange is ongoing, with more releases expected on Saturday and Sunday. This confirms significant progress on a key humanitarian and diplomatic objective. Russian sources (ASTRA, WarGonzo, Colonelcassad, Rybar, MoD Russia, TASS, Kotsnews, ZONA SVO, Basurin, Operation Z) also confirm the exchange of 390 prisoners, noting that some of the returned individuals were not just military POWs but also "detained for sabotage or terrorist attacks" or peaceful citizens forcibly removed from Kursk Oblast during a Ukrainian invasion (20 Kurians among the 120 civilians, with 34 still reportedly held in Sumy). Belarus has confirmed its role in facilitating these exchanges. Ukraine has also released 70 collaborators to Russia in parallel with the return of Ukrainian civilian hostages. Russian Foreign Ministry views these prisoner exchanges as part of "first agreements" aimed at final settlement of the conflict, which they accuse Ukraine of attempting to disrupt. Russian videos of returned servicemen show some holding combined USSR and Russian Imperial flags, and Russian Defense Minister Fomin comments on the positive reception of Russian flags during the exchange. Ukraine's Defense Minister Umerov expresses hope for US assistance in achieving a ceasefire. Russian Duma Deputy Shamsail Saraliev states the full 1000 for 1000 exchange is planned for "the coming days" due to logistical complexities.
Russian Claim of Otradnoye (Donetsk Oblast) Liberation and Continued Advance: Russian Vostok Group of Forces (via Rybar, Voin DV) claims the liberation of Otradnoye, south of Velyka Novosilka, in Donetsk Oblast. This claimed advance covers an area of over 10 sq km, clearing around 200 structures and destroying up to two platoons of the Ukrainian 23rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Russian forces are reportedly consolidating positions, and the advance is continuing towards Komar. They further claim to have repelled four Ukrainian counterattacks in the areas of Otradnoye and Komar (destroying 2 MaxxPro armored vehicles) and in Zelene Pole (2 infantry counterattacks). Russian forces report advancing up to 1 km in depth and along the front towards Komar and clearing 2 treelines east of Fedorivka. They also claim control of over 60% of Zelene Pole, engaging in "liquidation of local pockets of resistance." This signifies continued, aggressive Russian ground operations in this sector, attempting to expand their control south of Velyka Novosilka and towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Voin DV also reports UAV operators from 143rd motorized rifle regiment and 14th separate guards special forces brigade destroying an AGS position. Pro-Russian sources also show videos of Russian flags being raised in Otradnoye.
Ukrainian Deep Strike on Russian Defense Industry (Lipetsk Oblast) Confirmed with Retaliation Vow: The head of Lipetsk Oblast, Igor Artamonov, publicly stated that Russian artillery divisions have "promised to respond" to the Ukrainian attack on Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, and that the response "will be accurate and destructive." This confirms the severity and impact of the Ukrainian strike on the PJSC "Energiya" plant (previously reported). The statement further indicates that new volunteers departing for the front have also "sworn to avenge" the attack on Yelets and Lipetsk, signaling an increase in Russian morale and recruitment motivation in response to deep strikes. Russian Foreign Ministry claims 8 people were injured in Yelets due to a downed UAV.
Ukraine Develops "Batyar" Long-Range Drone: Ukrainian sources report the development of a "Shahed-like" drone named "Batyar" with a range of over 800 km and an 18 kg warhead for long-range operations. It is designed to be used as a false target, bomber, or kamikaze drone and can maintain its course even when damaged during a steep dive. This signifies continued Ukrainian innovation in long-range strike capabilities, potentially expanding the reach and effectiveness of attacks deep into Russian territory.
Ukrainian Authorities Announce Temporary Disruption of Digital Services: Several online services in the "Diia" and "Driver's Cabinet" applications (e.g., driver's license replacement, car re-registration, number plate booking) will be temporarily unavailable from May 24 to May 27 due to technical maintenance of state registries. This is a temporary disruption of critical civilian digital services. Kyiv is also preparing for the "Book Arsenal" event from May 29 to June 1, featuring historical discussions and discounted books.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Military Personnel in Vasylivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) Confirmed: ASTRA confirms the death of four Russian servicemen (two senior lieutenants, one junior sergeant, and one private) and one injury from the 135th Motor Rifle Regiment in an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on a Niva vehicle in occupied Vasylivka yesterday. This directly contradicts initial Russian reports that had only mentioned civilian casualties from the same incident, confirming successful Ukrainian targeting of Russian military personnel in occupied Zaporizhzhia and highlighting Russian information manipulation. The Russian Foreign Ministry claims that a 1990-born woman was killed and four children were injured in the same incident in Vasylivka, attributing it to a drone strike.
Russian FSB Claims Foiled Terrorist Plot in Kaliningrad: The Russian FSB claims to have detained a Russian citizen in Kaliningrad, born in 2000, who allegedly joined a terrorist organization and planned a terrorist attack for May 9 (Victory Day) by detonating an explosive device on a parade route, on instruction from a "Ukrainian curator" via Telegram. This indicates continued internal security efforts by Russia against alleged Ukrainian-backed sabotage.
JPMorgan Report on War Outcome Scenarios: JPMorgan's geopolitical center released a report predicting the "endgame" of the war in Ukraine to be a ceasefire by the end of Q2 (July). The report outlines several scenarios:
- "Georgian scenario" (50% likelihood): Ukraine receives no reliable security guarantees, remains unstable, and eventually falls back into Russia's sphere of influence.
- "Israeli scenario" (20% likelihood): Ukraine receives Western security guarantees but no Western troops, becoming a highly militarized state constantly ready for renewed conflict.
- "South Korea" and "Belarus" scenarios (15% each) are deemed least likely. The report also acknowledges that Russian nuclear threats significantly influenced the speed and scale of Western military aid and that some technological innovations were not as revolutionary as presented. It highlights the continued importance of tanks and the global shortage of conventional ammunition. This report provides a significant, albeit speculative, external assessment of potential conflict outcomes. Rybar, a Russian source, corroborates this report, stating that US experts call "step-by-step escalation" a successful model to avoid nuclear war.
Hungarian Official Blames Ukraine for Energy Crisis: Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó stated that Ukraine's actions, alongside EU sanctions, are the primary cause of Europe's energy crisis, citing the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine as of January 1. This reinforces Hungary's pro-Russian stance and contributes to narratives challenging EU unity regarding energy policy and support for Ukraine.
Local Governance Criticism in Kherson: A Ukrainian local source criticizes Kherson authorities for engaging in grass cutting and cleaning efforts while Russian drones are active over the city, arguing for prioritization of drone countermeasures (nets, EW systems for vehicles) and questioning the allocation of resources. This highlights local tensions regarding security measures and resource management.
Accessibility Initiatives in Kharkiv: Kharkiv ODA reports consistent implementation of the National Strategy for Barrier-Free Space, with 161 access points providing administrative services, 88% with free parking for disabled persons, 80% with wheelchair access, and 76% with barrier-free building access. 31 mobile administrator cases are used for remote settlements. This shows continued efforts for civilian support and social development despite the conflict. Kharkiv ODA also states they are introducing social services for daily care of children with disabilities in local communities, with one center already open and two more implemented.
Russian Military Helicopter Crash: A Russian military Mi-8 helicopter reportedly crashed in Oryol Oblast, killing the crew. Preliminary cause is a technical malfunction. This adds to non-combat losses for Russia.
US Dominance Declining: US Vice President JD Vance stated that the era of undisputed US global dominance has ended. This comment, if reflective of US internal sentiment, could have long-term implications for US foreign policy and support for allies, including Ukraine.
EU Sanctions Discussions: The EU is set to hold closed consultations on May 24-25 regarding an 18th package of sanctions against Russia. This indicates ongoing efforts to maintain economic pressure on Russia.
Vietnam to Block Telegram: Vietnam will reportedly block Telegram starting June 2 due to its refusal to cooperate with authorities regarding illicit content. While not directly related to the conflict, it highlights challenges for Telegram's global operations and could potentially impact information flows if similar actions were taken in conflict-affected regions.
EU Militarization Funding Approved: EU Ambassadors have approved a plan for the "militarization of Europe" with a €150 billion special fund. This is part of a larger €800 billion "ReArm Europe" program announced by Ursula von der Leyen, focusing on accelerated rearmament, including air defense (Patriot PAC-3, HIMARS missiles), and growth in national military budgets. This indicates a long-term commitment to strengthening European defense capabilities.
Putin on AI in Warfare: Russian President Putin stated that the future of the global arms market lies in advanced developments, including those with artificial intelligence, signaling Russia's focus on AI integration in military technology.
Russian "Triple Chokehold" Tactic: The Telegraph reports that the Russian army is employing a new "triple chokehold" tactic:
1. Ground Attack: To pin down Ukrainian forces, forcing them into defensive positions rather than maneuvering.
2. Drone Strikes: FPV drones and munition drops further restrict movement and cut off retreat paths.
3. Glide Bombs: Planning aerial bombs target and destroy fortifications, burying personnel. This tactic aims for slow, but steady, advances by presenting Ukrainian forces with a dilemma: hold positions with high casualty risk or maintain mobility with increased vulnerability to drones and attacks.
Russian Internal Issues: War Criminals & Social Impact: The death of an 18-year-old in North Ossetia, allegedly killed by a recidivist who returned from the front, and the subsequent death of the victim's mother from stress, highlight the severe social consequences and potential for increased crime from returning combatants. The case underscores a "spiral of indirect deaths" caused by the war.
Ukrainian Exchange of Collaborators: Ukraine has released 70 collaborators to Russia as part of the prisoner exchange, ensuring the return of Ukrainian civilian hostages who were illegally detained by Russia.
Russian Airstrike on Ukrainian Airfield in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Colonelcassad reports and provides video evidence of a Russian strike on a Ukrainian airfield with light-engine aircraft used for combating Russian UAVs, located near Barkovo, Dnipropropetrovsk Oblast (coordinates provided: 47.9096566, 34.6925581).
Lavrov's Hardline Stance: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated Russia's intent to continue fighting, stating that Moscow cannot allow Russian-speaking Ukrainians to live under laws passed by the current Ukrainian government after a ceasefire. He also states that Moscow expects international reaction to Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians and that Europeans will not succeed in shifting blame for Trump. This reinforces Russia's long-term territorial and political ambitions.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Civilian Casualties and Damage: Serhiy Lysak, head of Dnipropetrovsk RMA, reports that Russian drones and artillery operated throughout the day on frontline territories. A 22-year-old girl was injured in Nikopol (requiring medical aid at home), where an administrative building, a five-story building, two private houses, an outbuilding, several cars, and a gas pipeline were damaged. In Mezhivska community (Synelnykivskyi district), two private houses, an outbuilding, and a car were damaged by two UAV strikes. KABs struck Novopavlivska community (consequences being clarified). A fire also occurred at a farm in Samarivskyi district due to an early morning UAV attack. Lysak also states that 30 defenders from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were among the 390 released.
Russian Foreign Ministry's Accusations: The Russian Foreign Ministry released a statement accusing the "Kyiv regime" of "barbaric terrorist actions" aimed at disrupting renewed peace negotiations. They claim a "multiple increase" (788) in Ukrainian UAV and Western missile attacks on Russian territory outside the Special Military Operation zone between May 20-23, with 12 reaching their targets. They cite civilian casualties in Panteleimonovka (DNR), Vasylivka (Zaporizhzhia), Yelets (Lipetsk), and Lvgov (Kursk) as evidence of these attacks. They state that the decision to create a "buffer zone" was a result of these attacks and reiterate Russia's commitment to dialogue, while threatening "adequate response" targeting military objects and enterprises of the military-industrial complex.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post in Bakhmut: Ukrainian General Staff reports striking a forward command post of the Russian 3rd Army Corps in occupied Bakhmut, significantly damaging the building and potentially reducing Russia's ability to plan and conduct operations on the Pokrovsk direction.
Alleged F-16 Friendly Fire Incident: Colonelcassad reports (via infantmilitario) that on April 28, an F-16AM fighter jet allegedly shot down a Ukrainian Su-27S1M fighter jet near Moshny, Cherkasy region, due to friendly fire. The pilot, Captain Klubnikin, ejected successfully. This unconfirmed report, if true, highlights potential challenges with integrating new Western aircraft and managing air space.
Ukrainian Commander Dismissed for "Sharp Deterioration": The commander of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade (SBS), Bohdan Shevchuk, was dismissed due to a "sharp deterioration of the situation in its defense zone," including "a number of miscalculations" and "unreliable reports." This decision was made at the level of Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi to allow for the appointment of Colonel Oleksandr Sak as the new commander. This indicates high-level accountability for battlefield performance and strategic command.
Ukrainian FPV Drone Successes: Ukrainian 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade's "BULAVA" FPV drone unit demonstrates effective strikes on Russian heavy armored vehicles on the Pokrovsk direction. Separately, the SIGNUM battalion of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade showcases "hunting" Russian drone operators in Serebryansky forestry, destroying Russian crews, mortars, personnel, and communications, reducing the enemy's potential for strikes and advances. This highlights the critical importance of FPV drones for both offensive and counter-UAV operations.
Russian Call for Motorcycle Donations for Front: Colonelcassad broadcasts a fundraising effort for 200 motorcycles for the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, claiming 120 are already funded, highlighting the need for tactical mobility and reliance on crowdfunding for Russian forces.
Russian Officer Involved in War Crimes Reportedly Killed: ASTRA reports that Lieutenant Colonel Sergey Serditov ("714th"), commander of the 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiment, was killed by a drone attack on May 9, 2025. Serditov was previously implicated in the murder of a mobilized soldier (father of five) and attempting to cover it up by placing the body on a PFM-1 anti-personnel mine. A witness to this crime was also reportedly sent to a penal unit in "LNR" and subsequently killed near Bakhmut. This highlights persistent internal issues within the Russian military regarding discipline, accountability for war crimes, and severe human rights abuses. His death removes a perpetrator of serious alleged crimes.
New Allegations Regarding Ukrainian Assassination of Andriy Portnov: Ukrainian media (UP) and Russian military bloggers (Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z) claim that Andriy Portnov, former advisor to Viktor Yanukovych, was in Ukraine on May 17-18 and met with high-ranking officials responsible for law enforcement agencies, possibly including Zelenskyy and Yermak, before his assassination in Madrid on May 21. This suggests a potential political motive for his death, possibly linked to sensitive information he possessed or conditions he presented. Alex Parker Returns claims Portnov "put certain conditions related to compromising material" on the Ukrainian leadership, leading to his assassination.
Ukrainian Drone Development for Odessa: A Ukrainian source ("Shef Hayabusa") reports that Odessa is being attacked by a new version of the V2U drone (with machine vision), now equipped with a two-stroke gasoline engine instead of an electric motor. This significantly increases its range, while potentially reducing warhead size. This indicates Russian adaptation of their drone technology for longer-range strikes.
Russian Anti-UAV Operations: WarGonzo's "Somali" battalion showcases video of their drone operators destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" type drones, claiming to secure Russian airspace. This demonstrates active Russian efforts to counter large, slow Ukrainian strike drones.
Russian Lancet Strike in Sumy Oblast: Colonelcassad reports a successful "Lancet" strike by the "Sever" group on a Ukrainian artillery piece in Pavlovka, Sumy Oblast, confirming continued Russian precision strikes in the border regions.
Kremenchuk Drone Attack Aftermath: Oleksiy Biloshitsky (Ukrainian official) reports that emergency crews evacuating residents from damaged private homes in Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast) came under secondary fire from Russian strike UAVs. This highlights a deliberate Russian tactic of targeting emergency responders and the ongoing threat to civilian infrastructure in Kremenchu.
Frontline Workshop in Russia: WarGonzo presents an "Engineer Z Front" workshop ("Phantom Workshop") near the front, where personnel assemble and repair electronic warfare systems (REB), signal amplifiers, and other equipment, highlighting local adaptation and support for Russian forces.

Ground Operations and Frontline Dynamics

Donetsk Oblast:
- Otradnoye (South Donetsk direction): Russian "Vostok" Group of Forces claims the liberation of Otradnoye, south of Velyka Novosilka, following the earlier claimed capture of Bogatyr. The area of control is reported as over 10 sq km, with clearing of up to 200 structures and destruction of up to two platoons of the Ukrainian 23rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Russian forces are reportedly consolidating positions and continuing to advance towards Komar. Visual confirmation shows Russian flags in various parts of the settlement. Russian sources claim to have repelled 4 Ukrainian counterattacks in the Otradnoye and Komar areas, destroying 2 MaxxPro armored vehicles, and two infantry counterattacks in Zelene Pole. They claim advances up to 1 km deep and along the front towards Komar, and clearing 2 treelines east of Fedorivka (0.5 km deep, 1.5 km front). Russian forces also claim control of over 60% of Zelene Pole, continuing to clear resistance pockets. DeepState reports dynamic battles for Bahatyr, with Russian "motorcycle assaults" and Ukrainian counter-cleaning operations. MoD Russia reports servicemen of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 8th Army (Center Group of Forces) used motorcycles for a "rapid assault" on Novoolenovka, which was a "total surprise to the enemy." They claim this resulted in minimal resistance, with 12 Ukrainian servicemen retreating after drone strikes.
- Toretsk Direction: A video shows Russian paratroopers "tangled in barbed wire" (likely referring to enemy defenses or obstacles) getting onto a "tacha" (improvised fighting vehicle) which also snagged wire, then disentangling as the vehicle moves. This provides a visual of the challenging combat conditions on this front and potentially an instance of Russian tactical improvisation. Ukrainian forces from the 20th Brigade of the National Guard (Lyubart) are active in this area. Infantry rotation from the "Predator" Brigade (police personnel) near Toretsk highlighted challenging conditions, including mortar fire on an M113, but successful extraction. A Russian military blogger claims Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk. Ukrainian forces repelled 16 Russian attacks in the areas of Dyliivka, Druzhba, and Toretsk.
- Pokrovsk Direction: Russian "Center" Group claims mass destruction of NATO equipment, infantry, and artillery on May 22, including armored vehicles, firing points, mortars, and infantry positions. This indicates continued intense fighting and high Russian activity in this sector. A Russian POW from the 80th Tank Regiment, Vladimir Trofimov, captured near Pokrovsk, described being forced to the front line as punishment for murder, indicating the use of convicts and high attrition rates in Russian assaults. He claims his entire column was destroyed by drones, and he was the sole survivor. Ukrainian General Staff reports a strike on the Russian 3rd Army Corps command post in Bakhmut, which is expected to reduce Russia's ability to plan and conduct operations on the Pokrovsk direction. A Russian military medic ("Medem") from Tuva, working on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeyskoye) direction, discusses the role of faith on the front. A Russian soldier is shown in a ditch, saying he is "fucked" and cannot get out, indicating desperation due to drone activity. Ukrainian 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade's "BULAVA" FPV drone unit is demonstrating effective strikes on Russian heavy armored vehicles.
- Siversk Direction: Russian paratroopers claim to be clearing forest zones between Hryhorivka and Verkhnokamyanske, which is largely assessed as a grey zone. Russian source Colonelcassad reports continued active combat and tactical successes for Russian units in Verkhnokamyanske and Ivan-Darivka, despite fierce Ukrainian resistance. They claim increased control of up to 300 meters along the front and 200 meters in depth in the Ivan-Darivka area. Both areas are heavily contested grey zones. "Two Majors" (Russian source) convey greetings from "Fog" via "Smuglyanka's detachment" to "fascists" in Siversk, Alekseevka, and Vladimirovka. A Russian military expert, Marochko, stated that Russian forces had recaptured several Ukrainian positions near Verkhnokamyanske in the DPR over the past few days, indicating localized tactical gains. Russian sources claim advances of 1.5 km into the residential area of Verkhnokamyanske and occupation of new positions in the western part. Ukrainian SIGNUM battalion of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade is "hunting" Russian drone operators in Serebryansky forestry.
- General Donetsk: Russian sources shared videos showing the use of UMPK (Unified Planning and Correction Module) guided aerial bombs against Ukrainian positions. Colonelcassad provides a broad assessment of the situation in Ukrainian forces, claiming mass losses for the Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade in Yunakivka (Sumy Oblast) and the 47th Mechanized Brigade in the Glushkovsky direction. They attribute this to Russian artillery and UAV operators and claim that combat is expanding to Yunakivka, which is a key logistical center. They further claim that half of the Ukrainian assault troops do not return from combat sorties. Russian sources continue to present alleged Ukrainian prisoner and casualty figures as evidence of Ukrainian manpower shortages and the need to mobilize women and prisoners. Russian forces claim advances near Novosergeevka, Novoaleksandrovka, and Kotlyarovka, reaching the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported 144 combat engagements over the past day, with 54 of these on the Pokrovsk direction. Ukraine also repelled 19 attacks on the Novopavlivka direction (near Novopol, Bogatyr, Novosilka, Zelene Pole), 16 attacks on the Toretsk direction (Dyliivka, Druzhba, Toretsk), and reported fierce battles on the Lyman, Siversk, and Kramatorsk directions.
Kherson Oblast: Local Ukrainian source criticizes Kherson authorities for conducting non-essential tasks (grass cutting) while the city is under constant drone threat, suggesting a lack of focus on immediate force protection and civilian safety measures against aerial threats. Fundraising for Russian forces on the Kherson direction is ongoing. Ukrainian forces repelled 1 Russian assault on the Prydniprovskyi direction (near Antonivskyi bridges).
Orlovska Oblast (Russia): A Russian Mi-8 military helicopter crashed near Naryshkino, killing the crew. The cause is preliminarily reported as a technical malfunction.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Pro-Russian sources claim leading units of the Russian 90th Tank Division of the "Center" Group have reached the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with accompanying videos and photos showing personnel with Russian flags and concertina wire deployment. Ukrainian authorities (Serhiy Lysak, head of Dnipropetrovsk RMA) categorically deny these claims, labeling them as fakes intended to intimidate and destabilize. DeepState.UA, a Ukrainian OSINT project, concurs, stating the photo originated from Ukrainian forces whose vehicle became entangled in wire near Troitskoye, with Russian forces later arriving to stage photos. Russian forces also launched drone and artillery attacks on Nikopol, Marhanets, and Hrushivka communities, injuring a 22-year-old girl and damaging administrative buildings, residential homes, and infrastructure. Two private homes and an outbuilding were damaged by two UAV strikes in Mezhivska community. КАBs struck Novopavlivska community. A fire also occurred at a farm in Samarivskyi district due to an early morning UAV attack. A Russian soldier from Pavlohrad was released during the exchange. Lysak also states that 30 defenders from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast were among the 390 released.
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Russian source "Two Majors" reports that Russian forces continue to repel Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate and establish positions on the Russian border, engaging them with artillery and drones. This indicates continued cross-border activity. Some of the 120 civilian prisoners returned to Russia were from Kursk Oblast, captured during Ukrainian invasion. Ukrainian forces repelled 18 Russian army assaults in Kursk region yesterday.
Sumy Oblast: Colonelcassad claims Russian forces are approaching the northern outskirts of Yunakivka, with their drone operations extending further south towards Sumy, indicating expanded Russian influence in the border region. Colonelcassad reports a successful "Lancet" strike on a Ukrainian artillery piece in Pavlovka, Sumy Oblast.
Kharkiv Oblast: The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade reports effective drone strikes on Russian heavy armored vehicles in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian sources are emphasizing claims of Ukrainian forces "screaming" and suffering heavy losses near Volchanskie Khutora and Tikhoe (Kharkiv Oblast), attributing this to a lack of "adequate command" and critical deficiencies in manpower, ammunition, and communication.
Limansk Direction: A missing Russian soldier, Kirill Zhosan, from the 25th army, 31st regiment, 67th division, v/ch 12271, callsign "Yakut," has been reported missing since April 7, 2025, in the Krasny Liman (Kremennaya) direction. This highlights ongoing human losses for Russia in this sector.
Poltava Oblast (Kremenchuk): Oleksiy Biloshitsky reports Russian drone attacks on the private sector of Kremenchuk, with emergency crews coming under secondary fire during evacuation efforts.

Aerial & Naval Activity

Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: Ukraine has developed a new "Shahed-like" drone called "Batyar" with a range of over 800 km and an 18 kg warhead, designed for long-range operations as a false target, bomber, or kamikaze drone. It is engineered to maintain course even when damaged during a steep dive. A Ukrainian source ("Shef Hayabusa") reports that Odessa is being attacked by a new version of the V2U drone (with machine vision), now equipped with a two-stroke gasoline engine instead of an electric motor. This significantly increases its range, while potentially reducing warhead size.
Russian Air Activity: Videos show the continued use of UMPK (Unified Planning and Correction Module) guided aerial bombs against Ukrainian positions. A video also showcases a Russian Su-24 bomber. An animated scheme of Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory on May 22-23 indicates explosions in Uman, Novoarkhangelsk (Kirovohrad Oblast), Kyslychevata (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), Chuhuiv (Kharkiv Oblast), Mykolaiv, Shostka (Sumy Oblast), and Polonne (Khmelnytskyi Oblast) from Geran/Gerbera drones and Iskander-M missiles. Russian sources also report artillery and FPV drone strikes against 6 Ukrainian reinforcement groups in the areas of Otradnoye, Zeleny Kut, Komar, Voskresenka, Zatishe, and Dorozhnyanka. Russian MoD also released video of "Sever Group" drone operators destroying Ukrainian combat groups camouflaging hardware in forest belts in Kharkiv region. Colonelcassad reports a Russian strike on a Ukrainian airfield with light-engine aircraft near Barkovo, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Russian Foreign Ministry claims a "multiple increase" (788) in Ukrainian UAV and Western missile attacks on Russian territory outside the Special Military Operation zone between May 20-23, with 12 reaching their targets, including civilian casualties in various regions. WarGonzo's "Somali" battalion showcases video of their drone operators destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" type drones. Colonelcassad reports a successful "Lancet" strike on a Ukrainian artillery piece in Pavlovka, Sumy Oblast. Oleksiy Biloshitsky reports that emergency crews evacuating residents from damaged private homes in Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast) came under secondary fire from Russian strike UAVs.
Ukrainian Air Defense Success: The 79th Air Assault Brigade successfully shot down 7 Russian reconnaissance UAVs (5 Supercams, 2 Zalas), emphasizing the cost-effectiveness of these interceptions compared to the value of the drones. A video from enemy channels in Crimea indicates that Russian forces are using small arms to shoot down Ukrainian UAVs. Ukrainian "Charlie" company (14th UAV regiment) and "Black Forest" (15th artillery reconnaissance brigade) claim to have detected and destroyed a Russian command vehicle and three air defense systems (Tor, Buk-M3, and S-300) in Donetsk Oblast, showcasing effective Ukrainian SEAD/DEAD operations. SIGNUM battalion of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade is "hunting" Russian drone operators in Serebryansky forestry, destroying Russian crews, mortars, personnel, and communications.
Russian Anti-Drone Technology: Rostec will present new "IGLA" anti-drone cartridges (IGLA 30, 50, 100, Tracer 75) at the MILEX-2025 exhibition in Minsk. These 12/70 and 12/76 caliber rounds are designed to hit small UAVs with kinetic energy at ranges up to 100 meters, with tracer versions for training. This indicates a focus on low-cost, close-range anti-drone solutions. WarGonzo's "Somali" battalion showcases video of their drone operators destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" type drones.
Russian Industrial Zone Fire: A fire is reported in an industrial zone in Kotelniki, Moscow Oblast, which could be related to ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, although no direct link has been confirmed yet.
Alleged Friendly Fire Incident: An unconfirmed report alleges that on April 28, a Ukrainian F-16AM fighter jet shot down a Ukrainian Su-27S1M fighter jet near Moshny, Cherkasy region, due to friendly fire.
Massive Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russia (Confirmed & Escalating): The Russian Ministry of Defense now claims a staggering 105 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down overnight across various Russian regions from 00:00 to 05:30 MSK (previous claims were 77, then 28 over Moscow). This includes a significant concentration of 35 UAVs over the Moscow region. Other affected regions (with claimed shot down numbers): Oryol (14 UAVs), Kursk (12 UAVs), Belgorod (11 UAVs), Tula (10 UAVs), Kaluga (9 UAVs), Voronezh (7 UAVs), Lipetsk (3 UAVs), Smolensk (3 UAVs), and Bryansk (1 UAV). The Governor of Tula confirmed two people were injured and residential/non-residential buildings damaged due to a UAV attack. The Governor of Tula stated Russian air defense is repelling the 10th wave of Ukrainian aerial attacks on the region, with one drone impacting a residential building and debris damaging other buildings. Debris from a UAV reportedly fell near the "Oruzheynik" sports complex in Tula, with a warning that parts may contain explosives. Ryazan reported a fire at a Rosneft oil refinery following drone attacks, confirmed by NASA FIRMS. Unconfirmed reports include a drone hitting pavilion C of Patriot Park in Podolsk (Moscow region).
Renewed Russian Drone Activity in Kyiv: Enemy drones are reportedly directly over Kyiv, prompting air raid alerts and sounds of explosions. Ukrainian authorities (Kyiv City Military Administration) reported that debris from an enemy UAV fell on the territory of a school in the Darnytskyi district of Kyiv. Fortunately, there were no casualties or fires. This signifies a renewed and intensified Russian aerial threat to the capital.
Russian Reconnaissance UAV in Kharkiv Oblast: A Russian reconnaissance UAV is active in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

Humanitarian & Social Issues

Prisoner Exchange: Confirmed first stage of the "1000 for 1000" prisoner exchange, with 390 Ukrainians (270 military, 120 civilian) released. The exchange is ongoing and is being facilitated by Belarus. Medical, psychological, and financial support will be provided to the released individuals. Russian sources confirm their reciprocal exchange. Ukraine has also released 70 collaborators to Russia as part of the prisoner exchange, ensuring the return of Ukrainian civilian hostages who were illegally detained by Russia. Russian sources claim some of the returned Russian civilians were "political prisoners" or forcibly removed from Kursk Oblast. Russian Duma Deputy Shamsail Saraliev states the full 1000 for 1000 exchange is planned for "the coming days." ASTRA reports that 20 Kurians were among the 120 civilians, with 34 still reportedly held in Sumy. The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War held a panel discussion on documenting the experiences of POWs for national memory and international justice.
WHO Aid to Zaporizhzhia: A WHO delegation visited Zaporizhzhia, providing over $1 million in aid, mobile clinics, autonomous energy systems, and training for medics, highlighting ongoing international support for the Ukrainian healthcare system in conflict zones. Zaporizhzhia ODA also announced a meeting for entrepreneurs focused on "barrier-free business," potentially for rehabilitation and employment of veterans or those with disabilities.
Digital Service Interruption (Ukraine): Several online services in the "Diia" and "Driver's Cabinet" applications will be temporarily unavailable from May 24 to May 27 due to technical maintenance.
Kharkiv Accessibility: Kharkiv ODA is implementing a strategy for barrier-free administrative services, with 161 access points adapted for people with disabilities, and mobile cases for remote areas. This is a positive social development. Kharkiv ODA is also introducing social services for daily care of children with disabilities in local communities.
Russian Internal Security: FSB claims to have detained a Russian citizen in Kaliningrad who was allegedly planning a terrorist attack for May 9 on behalf of a "Ukrainian curator."
Russian Propaganda/Internal Affairs: "Mash on Donbas" reports "mysterious inscriptions" appearing on buildings in Russian cities, promoting "Superpower for Business" and linking it to "Entrepreneur's Day." This indicates government-led or pro-government marketing/propaganda efforts.
Cultural Initiatives (Ukraine): The "Book Arsenal" event in Kyiv (May 29 - June 1) will feature discounted books, particularly on Ukrainian history, and discussions with historians.
Russian Social Impact of War: The death of an 18-year-old killed by a returning convict from the war, and the subsequent death of the victim's mother due to stress, highlight the severe social consequences and potential for increased crime from returning combatants in Russia. ASTRA's report on the death of Lieutenant Colonel Sergey Serditov ("714th"), who was implicated in the murder of a mobilized soldier and a cover-up, further underscores serious internal issues within the Russian military and the lack of accountability for alleged war crimes.
Russian Civilian Casualties: The Russian Foreign Ministry claims multiple civilian casualties in recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, including 8 injured in Panteleimonovka (DNR), 1 killed and 4 children injured in Vasylivka (Zaporizhzhia), 8 injured in Yelets (Lipetsk), and an unspecified number, including 2 children, injured by HIMARS strikes in Lvgov (Kursk).
Sudan Conflict Analysis (Rybar): Rybar provides a detailed geopolitical analysis of the ongoing conflict in Sudan, highlighting the involvement of various international and regional actors (UAE, Kenya, UK supporting Rapid Support Forces; Russia, Iran, Egypt, Eritrea supporting official government), and the dual role of countries like China supplying both sides. This analysis, while not directly related to the Ukraine conflict, reflects Russian strategic thinking on proxy wars and influence in Africa, and their own efforts to prevent "re-division" of the region by external powers. Rybar also reports on the "expulsion" of a governor in Syria, highlighting internal crises and fragmented governance.
Neglect of Russian Military Cemeteries: A video from Vanino, Khabarovsk Krai, shows severe neglect of a "Heroes' Alley" cemetery for fallen Russian soldiers, raising concerns about government support and potentially impacting morale.
Ukrainian Rehabilitation: Kryvyi Rih has opened a renovated rehabilitation department with radon baths for wounded service members, expanding Ukraine's efforts in supporting injured personnel.
Internal Ukrainian Resistance and Recruitment Challenges: A Ukrainian military official and veteran in Novyi Rozdil (Lviv Oblast) was severely assaulted by a group of eight men during conscription notification duties. The SBU and National Police in Kryvyi Rih reportedly neutralized Russian attempts to recruit teenagers for arson attacks on military vehicles and Ukrzaliznytsia facilities. Ukrainian MP reports 45,000 men illegally left Ukraine since full-scale invasion, with 30,000 detained, and over 7,000 criminal cases initiated. Concerns about the quality of mobilized personnel are highlighted by an MP who claims only 5-6% are truly combat-ready.
Ukrainian Fundraising Challenges: "CyberBoroshno" reports a significant gap between requested FPV drones (144 requests for 4562 FPVs, totaling 80+ million UAH) and funds raised, forcing them to reduce drone issuance to less active combat zones and new units.
Kremenchuk Civilian Impact: Oleksiy Biloshitsky reports on the aftermath of Russian drone attacks in Kremenchuk, detailing damage to private homes and the targeting of emergency services with secondary strikes, which directly impacts civilians and highlights a war crime.

Strategic Outlook

The most significant strategic update is the confirmed and visually documented prisoner exchange, which provides a crucial humanitarian breakthrough and demonstrates a willingness for limited, high-level cooperation between the warring parties, facilitated by Belarus. This is a positive development that could potentially lay groundwork for further de-escalation steps, although it does not inherently signal a broader shift in military objectives. The release of collaborators by Ukraine as part of this exchange adds a complex diplomatic dimension. Both sides are actively leveraging the exchange as a point of positive internal messaging, with Russian sources presenting it as a success for their efforts and a point of pride, and emphasizing the return of "political prisoners" and civilians "forcibly removed" from Kursk. Ukraine's Defense Minister Umerov's statement hoping for US assistance for a ceasefire introduces a new dimension to potential peace initiatives, linking it to the prisoner exchange success. Russian sources indicate the "1000 for 1000" exchange is expected to be completed in the coming days, implying continued high-level cooperation.

Concurrently, Russia is claiming new, aggressive tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast with the stated liberation of Otradnoye and continued advance towards Komar and Zelene Pole, along with repelling Ukrainian counterattacks. New Russian claims of tactical successes in Ivan-Darivka and continued contested grey zone status in Verkhnokamyanske also highlight continued efforts to push on the Siversk axis. The reported Russian use of motorcycles for rapid assaults in Novoolenovka demonstrates tactical innovation and adaptation. This, coupled with the reported high attrition rates for Ukrainian forces in the Glushkovsky and Sumy directions, suggests that Russia's attritional warfare strategy on the ground continues to yield some results, albeit at what cost is not fully transparent. The claimed destruction of NATO equipment near Pokrovsk further underscores the intensity of fighting in this sector. Russia's continued focus on anti-drone technologies like the new IGLA cartridges and the "Somali" battalion's efforts against "Baba Yaga" drones indicates an ongoing adaptation to Ukrainian drone capabilities. The reported "triple chokehold" tactic by Russian forces, combining ground attacks, drone strikes, and glide bombs, presents a significant challenge to Ukrainian defensive capabilities and necessitates adaptive countermeasures. The Russian Foreign Ministry's explicit justification of a "buffer zone" due to Ukrainian attacks suggests a long-term strategic goal of territorial annexation under the guise of security.

Ukraine's continued development of long-range drones like "Batyar" and the new gasoline-powered V2U variant for Odessa signals an enduring commitment to asymmetrical warfare and deep strike capabilities. This, combined with successful strikes on Russian military personnel (Vasylivka) and the confirmed (and now publicly responded to) strike on the Lipetsk defense plant, indicates Ukraine's intention to impose significant costs on Russia's military-industrial complex and home front. The Russian vow of retaliation for the Lipetsk strike underscores the escalating nature of these deep attacks. The non-combat crash of a Russian Mi-8 helicopter in Oryol Oblast also contributes to Russia's attrition. The strike on the Ukrainian airfield in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast suggests Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian drone defenses. The unconfirmed fire in Kotelniki, Moscow Oblast, if a result of a Ukrainian strike, would further highlight Ukraine's reach into the Russian heartland. The reported Ukrainian strike on a Russian command post in Bakhmut, if accurate, represents a significant tactical success for Ukraine in degrading Russian operational planning capabilities in a critical sector. The unconfirmed friendly fire incident involving an F-16 and Su-27, if validated, would highlight the complexities and risks associated with integrating advanced Western platforms into existing air force operations. The dismissal of the 59th Brigade commander due to "sharp deterioration" and "unreliable reports" indicates a proactive approach by Ukraine's high command to address performance issues at the tactical level, which is a positive sign for operational integrity. Ukrainian FPV drone successes in destroying Russian armor and drone operator crews highlight effective asymmetric tactics. Russian crowdfunding for motorcycles for tactical mobility underscores their logistical challenges. The Russian Lancet strike in Sumy Oblast further demonstrates their precision strike capabilities in border regions. The reporting of secondary strikes on emergency responders in Kremenchuk is a critical development, indicating a deliberate tactic to hinder humanitarian efforts.

The JPMorgan report, while an external assessment, highlights a prevailing narrative among some Western analysts about a prolonged conflict with an outcome unfavorable to Ukraine's maximalist goals. This perspective, particularly the "Georgian scenario" prediction, could influence future Western aid decisions and diplomatic approaches, reinforcing the need for Ukraine to maintain strong international advocacy. The Hungarian minister's statement further emphasizes the potential for fissures within Western alliances regarding the conflict's economic consequences. The upcoming EU discussions on the 18th sanctions package against Russia will be a key indicator of continued European unity. The approval of €150 billion for European militarization indicates a strong, long-term commitment to defense spending, which will indirectly benefit Ukraine through increased production and security.

The temporary disruption of Ukrainian digital services, while routine, underscores the vulnerability of civilian infrastructure and the need for robust digital resilience. The Kherson local governance criticism points to a broader challenge in wartime governance: balancing immediate military needs with maintaining civilian services and morale. The statement from the US Vice President regarding the end of undisputed US dominance could be a precursor to shifts in US foreign policy, potentially impacting future aid to Ukraine. Putin's statement on AI in warfare underscores the ongoing technological arms race. Lavrov's comments on the "protection of Russian-speakers" signal continued maximalist territorial aims and a lack of intent for genuine peace negotiations, while also attempting to influence international opinion regarding Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians. The Russian Foreign Ministry's comprehensive statement on Ukrainian "terrorist attacks" on Russian civilians and infrastructure represents a significant escalation in the information warfare narrative, attempting to justify further military action and the creation of "buffer zones." The renewed Russian drone activity directly over Kyiv highlights the persistent aerial threat to Ukraine's capital. The social impact of the war, particularly from returning combatants, is becoming increasingly visible in Russia, alongside concerns about the neglect of military cemeteries. The reported missing Russian soldier near Krasny Liman adds to the confirmed attrition figures. The extended analysis of the Sudan conflict by Rybar provides insight into Russia's broader geopolitical strategy and engagement in global proxy conflicts. Ukrainian efforts in rehabilitation and child rescue highlight ongoing humanitarian responses. Internal Ukrainian resistance to mobilization and recruitment challenges, along with funding gaps for drones, remain critical domestic issues. The new allegations surrounding Andriy Portnov's assassination and his visit to Ukraine, if verified, would indicate a high-stakes political intrigue impacting both Ukrainian domestic stability and potential peace negotiations. The Russian workshop near the front for EW systems highlights their ongoing adaptation and production capabilities for the battlefield.

Overall, the conflict remains a high-intensity, multi-domain struggle. While humanitarian and diplomatic progress is evident with the prisoner exchange, the core military objectives of both sides appear unchanged, with Russia pressing ground offensives and Ukraine developing and executing deep strikes. Information warfare continues to be a crucial component, as evidenced by conflicting casualty reports and the Russian FSB's claims of thwarted terror plots, and the narratives around the JPMorgan report. The social impact of the war, particularly from returning combatants, is becoming increasingly visible in Russia, and is highlighted by the report of Lieutenant Colonel Serditov's death and alleged war crimes. The extended analysis of the Sudan conflict by Rybar provides insight into Russia's broader geopolitical strategy and engagement in global proxy conflicts.

Risk Assessment

Humanitarian Risk: Mitigated by the successful prisoner exchange, but constant Russian attacks on civilian areas and alleged war crimes against POWs (as previously reported) remain a high risk. The Russian Foreign Ministry's statement on civilian casualties from Ukrainian attacks adds another layer to this, albeit from a propagandistic perspective. Russian claims of forcibly removed civilians from Kursk Oblast are a new element to monitor. The targeting of emergency responders in Kremenchuk is a critical escalation of humanitarian risk.
Operational Risk (Ukraine): High, due to claimed Russian ground advances, high attrition rates in some Ukrainian units, and continuous Russian aerial bombardment. The temporary disruption of digital services, while manageable, could pose minor operational risks if not securely handled. Ukrainian counterattacks in Otradnoye and Komar, though repelled according to Russian sources, indicate continued commitment to defending positions. The documented casualties from Russian strikes on Ukrainian training camps highlight severe OPSEC failures requiring immediate review. The "triple chokehold" tactic poses a significant threat to entrenched positions. The unconfirmed F-16 friendly fire incident introduces a potential risk for integration of new Western air assets. The dismissal of a brigade commander due to "sharp deterioration" and "unreliable reports" indicates significant operational challenges in specific sectors. Recruitment challenges and funding gaps for critical equipment pose long-term risks. The new, longer-range V2U drone from Russia could increase the operational risk for Odessa and other deeper targets.
Operational Risk (Russia): Increased, due to successful Ukrainian deep strikes on military-industrial targets and military personnel, prompting public vows of retaliation that could escalate the conflict. Non-combat losses (Mi-8 crash, Lieutenant Colonel Serditov's death) add to equipment and personnel attrition. Russian forces face internal challenges, including desertion, accountability for war crimes, and the social impact of returning combatants. The industrial zone fire in Moscow Oblast, if confirmed as a Ukrainian strike, would represent a significant increase in operational risk for Russia's interior. The Ukrainian strike on the 3rd Army Corps command post in Bakhmut, if effective, represents a degradation of Russian command and control. The direct impact of Ukrainian drones on Tula highlights a new level of successful deep strikes.
Information Warfare Risk: High, with continued Russian propaganda efforts to manipulate narratives around casualties (Vasylivka), internal stability (Kaliningrad plot), Ukrainian capabilities, and justifications for continued aggression (Lavrov's statements, Russian Foreign Ministry's statement on "terrorist attacks," and framing of returned POWs). The JPMorgan report, regardless of its accuracy, also contributes to the information environment by suggesting specific, potentially unpalatable outcomes for Ukraine. The Russian narrative about the social impact of returning convicts reflects internal issues, as does the neglect of military cemeteries. Russia's efforts to project its influence through analyses of other conflicts (e.g., Sudan) should be noted. Russian claims of not having enough POWs for exchange are a new point of disinformation. The new allegations surrounding Andriy Portnov's assassination create a high-stakes information warfare environment with potential for mutual accusations.
Economic & Social Stability (Ukraine): Moderate, with ongoing efforts to support healthcare (WHO aid) and social accessibility (Kharkiv). However, the temporary digital service disruption affects civilian life.
Economic & Social Stability (Russia): The Lipetsk regional head's public vow of retaliation is intended to bolster morale and recruitment but also signals public awareness and potential discontent from Ukrainian deep strikes. The social impact of returning convicts highlights internal challenges. The widespread reported civilian casualties in Russia (as per Russian Foreign Ministry) could be used to justify further escalation. The existence of "phantom workshops" near the front suggests a need for localized, informal support structures for equipment, highlighting gaps in official supply chains.
Western Unity: The JPMorgan report and the Hungarian official's statement highlight potential for divergences in strategic outlook and economic burden-sharing among Western allies. The upcoming EU sanctions discussions are a test of this unity. The approval of significant EU military funding, however, indicates a strong collective commitment to military strength. Lavrov's comments on US and European attempts to influence Trump and shift responsibility show continued Russian efforts to sow discord.
Regional Instability (Global): US Vice President Vance's statement regarding US global dominance could signal a shift towards a more isolationist foreign policy, potentially impacting global security dynamics and US commitment to allies. Lavrov's statements imply continued Russian aggression. The Russian Foreign Ministry's explicit accusation of Ukraine attempting to derail peace talks with US assistance sets a dangerous precedent for future negotiation efforts.

Resource Allocation Considerations

POW Support: Allocate comprehensive resources for the rehabilitation, medical, psychological, and financial support of the 390 released Ukrainian prisoners, and prepare for future exchanges. Manage the reintegration of released collaborators appropriately. Ensure all returned civilians, including those from Kursk Oblast, receive necessary support.
Long-Range Strike Capabilities: Continue investment in and rapid deployment of advanced long-range drones like "Batyar" and the new gasoline-powered V2U variant to sustain pressure on Russian military-industrial targets and critical infrastructure. This requires continued R&D and manufacturing capacity.
Frontline Defensive Reinforcement: Prioritize deployment of reserves and advanced equipment to areas experiencing intense Russian pressure, especially the Donetsk Oblast sectors (Otradnoye-Komar-Zelene Pole, Siversk-Ivan-Darivka, Pokrovsk), to mitigate claimed Russian advances and high attrition rates. Ensure adequate supplies and personnel for units engaged in counterattacks in these areas. Develop countermeasures to Russia's "triple chokehold" tactic and the use of motorcycles for rapid assaults.
Counter-UAV & Force Protection (Kherson, Training Camps, Rear Areas, Kremenchuk): Immediately deploy and activate robust counter-UAV systems (EW, nets, mobile defense teams) for Kherson, Kremenchuk, and other cities under consistent drone threat. Reallocate resources from non-essential civilian works to direct force protection and civilian safety measures against aerial attacks. Invest in new anti-drone technologies, including kinetic options, as demonstrated by Russian advancements. Implement immediate and comprehensive OPSEC reviews for all military training facilities and logistical hubs. Prioritize air defense for Kyiv given renewed direct drone threats. Develop protocols for protecting emergency responders from secondary strikes.
International Advocacy and Dialogue: Dedicate diplomatic resources to proactively engage with allies to counter potentially detrimental narratives (e.g., JPMorgan report, Trump's statements) and ensure sustained, comprehensive support for Ukraine. Continue to emphasize the humanitarian imperative of prisoner exchanges, while acknowledging Russian narratives around their own returned civilians. Actively participate in EU sanctions discussions to ensure continued pressure on Russia. Leverage the new EU militarization funding to secure long-term military aid and defense cooperation. Highlight the implications of Lavrov's and the Russian Foreign Ministry's statements on Russia's continued aggressive posture and attempts to shift blame for stalled negotiations. Proactively manage the narrative around Portnov's assassination to counter Russian influence operations.
Digital Infrastructure Security: Ensure the technical maintenance of state registries is conducted securely and efficiently to minimize disruption and prevent any potential vulnerabilities during the temporary service outage.
Civilian Support Infrastructure: Continue to support WHO initiatives for medical aid and infrastructure development in conflict zones like Zaporizhzhia, and expand accessibility programs in other regions. Ensure rapid humanitarian response and aid to all areas affected by Russian attacks, particularly where civilian infrastructure is damaged and casualties are reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Kremenchuk.
Manpower and Recruitment: Review and adapt recruitment strategies to address internal mobilization challenges and ensure adequate combat-ready personnel. Address concerns regarding the quality of mobilized forces. Explore alternative funding mechanisms for critical equipment, such as FPV drones, beyond public crowdfunding to ensure consistent supply.
Internal Discipline and Accountability: Investigate and address incidents of alleged war crimes and misconduct within military units to ensure accountability and maintain morale and international standing.

Operational Workflow Updates

Data Collection and Preprocessing:

Prisoner Exchange Details: Collect and cross-reference detailed manifests from both Ukrainian and Russian sides of the prisoner exchange to verify numbers, identities, and conditions of released individuals, including collaborators. Record the role of Belarus in facilitating the exchange. Collect and categorize information on the 120 Russian civilians exchanged, including details on those claimed as "political prisoners" or "forcibly removed" from Kursk. Gather any official statements or reports regarding the 34 people reportedly still held in Sumy. Collect and verify visuals of the exchange from both sides, including any flags displayed. Monitor Russian statements for expected completion of the 1000 for 1000 exchange. Gather information from the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War regarding the panel discussion and documented experiences of POWs.
Ground Control Verification (Otradnoye, Komar, Zelene Pole, Pokrovsk, Ivan-Darivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Novoolenovka): Prioritize satellite imagery, drone feeds, and human intelligence to definitively verify Russian claims of liberating Otradnoye, Zelene Pole, and assess the extent of their consolidation and further advances towards Komar. Confirm destruction of NATO equipment near Pokrovsk and Ukrainian MaxxPro losses. Validate reports on the Russian POW captured near Pokrovsk and any new information regarding the Russian medic. Verify Russian claims of tactical successes and increased control in Ivan-Darivka and Verkhnokamyanske on the Siversk direction, and new information on the "Smuglyanka detachment." Collect details on the Russian "motorcycle assault" tactic in Novoolenovka.
"Batyar" Drone Assessment: Gather all available technical specifications, production timelines, and deployment plans for the "Batyar" drone.
Lipetsk Strike Aftermath: Monitor Russian media and local reports for further details on the impact of the Yelets strike and any actual retaliatory strikes or heightened recruitment activity in Lipetsk Oblast. Record all Russian claims of civilian casualties and damages from the Yelets incident.
Vasylivka Casualty Verification: Analyze all available evidence (imagery, local reports) for the Vasylivka incident to confirm the discrepancy between Russian initial civilian casualty reports and confirmed military casualties, and to reconcile with the new Russian Foreign Ministry statement on civilian casualties.
JPMorgan Report Analysis: Integrate the full JPMorgan CSIS report and similar analytical pieces from other think tanks to understand prevailing Western strategic assessments, including the Rybar corroboration.
Digital Service Interruption Monitoring: Monitor the "Diia" and "Driver's Cabinet" applications for smooth execution of maintenance and absence of security incidents.
Kherson Local Governance: Collect detailed reports on the current activities of Kherson local authorities regarding security measures versus non-essential services.
Internal Russian Security Claims: Collect more information on the alleged Kaliningrad terrorism plot to assess its implications and any potential links. Collect information on the death of Lieutenant Colonel Sergey Serditov, including details of his alleged war crimes and cover-up. Track information regarding other commanders implicated in the cover-up.
Propaganda Analysis: Monitor the "Superpower for Business" campaign in Russia and other similar initiatives to assess their intent and effectiveness. Collect and analyze any new statements from Russian sources portraying Ukrainian prisoners or the exchange in a particular light (e.g., "political prisoners"). Analyze the Russian "Somali" battalion's propaganda regarding anti-UAV operations.
Russian Helicopter Crash: Gather detailed reports on the Mi-8 crash in Oryol Oblast, including cause and crew details.
US Diplomatic Statements: Monitor and analyze official statements from US government officials, particularly the Vice President, regarding global power shifts and their potential implications. Record and analyze Defense Minister Umerov's statements on US assistance for a ceasefire.
EU Sanctions Discussions: Track progress and outcomes of the EU's closed consultations on the 18th sanctions package.
Telegram Block in Vietnam: Note information regarding the Telegram block in Vietnam and assess any potential implications for information access in conflict zones.
EU Militarization Funding: Collect detailed information on the newly approved EU militarization fund (€150 billion) and its planned allocation, including specific defense procurement goals.
Russian Anti-Drone Technology: Gather specifications and deployment timelines for the new IGLA anti-drone cartridges.
Russian "Triple Chokehold" Tactic: Gather detailed reports and analysis on the implementation and effectiveness of Russia's "triple chokehold" tactic from various sources.
Russian Social Impact (Returning Convicts): Collect and analyze reports on social incidents involving returning convicts, such as the one in North Ossetia, to assess the broader social impact of the war on Russia.
Russian Airstrike on Ukrainian Airfield: Collect and verify details regarding the Russian strike on the Ukrainian airfield in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Lavrov's Statements: Analyze the full context and implications of Lavrov's statements regarding Russia's long-term war aims, including his remarks on international reaction to Ukrainian attacks and European efforts to influence Trump.
Dnipropetrovsk Civilian Damage: Collect detailed reports on civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from recent attacks.
Russian Foreign Ministry Statement: Integrate the full text and implications of the Russian Foreign Ministry's statement regarding Ukrainian "terrorist attacks," claimed civilian casualties, and justifications for military actions and a "buffer zone." Collect all cited instances of civilian casualties and damages in Russia (Panteleimonovka, Lvgov, etc.).
Moscow Oblast Fire: Collect information on the industrial zone fire in Kotelniki, Moscow Oblast, and monitor for any confirmed links to Ukrainian drone activity.
Sudan Conflict Information: Integrate Rybar's analysis of the Sudan conflict to understand Russia's broader geopolitical perspectives and strategic priorities. Also, collect information on the "expulsion" of the governor in Syria from Rybar.
Ukrainian Strike on Bakhmut Command Post: Gather further details and verification of the Ukrainian strike on the Russian 3rd Army Corps command post in Bakhmut.
Alleged F-16 Friendly Fire: Seek additional sources and verification regarding the alleged F-16 friendly fire incident involving a Ukrainian Su-27.
Ukrainian Commander Dismissal: Collect official statements and additional reporting on the dismissal of the 59th Brigade commander, including the stated reasons.
Ukrainian FPV Drone Operations: Collect and analyze video evidence and unit reports on Ukrainian FPV drone successes against Russian armor and personnel.
Russian Military Crowdfunding: Monitor Russian social media and Telegram channels for ongoing military crowdfunding efforts, such as the call for motorcycles for the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, to assess their scope and impact on Russian logistics and equipment.
Missing Russian Personnel: Document all reports of missing Russian personnel, including names and last known locations, for tracking attrition.
Portnov Assassination Allegations: Collect all available information from Ukrainian and Russian sources regarding Andriy Portnov's alleged visit to Ukraine before his assassination, including details of his meetings and the nature of any "compromising material."
New Russian Drone Variant (Odessa): Gather detailed technical specifications and deployment patterns for the gasoline-powered V2U drone variant attacking Odessa.
Russian Lancet Strikes: Collect and verify details of the Lancet strike in Pavlovka, Sumy Oblast.
Kremenchuk Attack Details: Gather detailed reports on the Russian drone attack in Kremenchuk, including the targeting of emergency responders and the extent of civilian damage.
Russian Frontline Workshops: Collect information on the "Phantom Workshop" and similar initiatives, including the types of equipment produced or repaired.

Analysis and Modeling:

Prisoner Exchange Impact: Model the logistical and psychological impact of the large-scale prisoner exchange on both sides, including post-release support needs for Ukrainian service members and the implications of exchanging collaborators. Analyze the diplomatic implications of Belarus's role and the Russian Foreign Ministry's attempt to frame the exchange within a broader negotiation context, particularly with Umerov's statement. Assess the propaganda impact of the exchange in both countries. Incorporate the logistical challenges and anticipated completion timeline for the 1000 for 1000 exchange. Analyze the implications of the high-level panel discussion on POW experiences.
Ground Offensive Projection (Otradnoye/Komar/Zelene Pole, Siversk-Ivan-Darivka, Pokrovsk, Novoolenovka): Update models to project potential Russian offensive trajectories and objectives in the Otradnoye-Komar-Zelene Pole direction, and assess Ukrainian defensive requirements. Model the impact of heavy equipment losses near Pokrovsk on Russian offensive capabilities. Analyze the implications of Russian claims of control over Zelene Pole and tactical gains in Ivan-Darivka and Verkhnokamyanske. Assess the impact of the Ukrainian strike on the Bakhmut command post on Russian offensive capabilities on the Pokrovsk direction. Analyze the effectiveness and replicability of the Russian "motorcycle assault" tactic in Novoolenovka.
Long-Range Drone Strike Effectiveness: Refine models for optimal targeting and damage assessment of Ukrainian long-range drones, incorporating "Batyar's" capabilities and the new gasoline-powered V2U variant's increased range. Assess Russian vulnerabilities to such drones and the impact of the Lipetsk strike. Analyze the frequency and effectiveness of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory based on Russian official statements.
Information Warfare Strategies: Analyze how the Vasylivka casualty reporting discrepancy and the Kaliningrad plot are being leveraged in Russian information warfare, and develop counter-narratives. Deconstruct the Russian Foreign Ministry's statement to identify key narratives, justifications, and strategic objectives behind the accusations of "terrorist attacks." Analyze the messaging around the prisoner exchange, including the Russian focus on "political prisoners" and captured civilians, and the claims of insufficient POWs for exchange. Analyze the narrative around Portnov's assassination and its potential impact on internal Ukrainian politics and international perceptions.
Western Aid & Policy Influences: Analyze the potential impact of reports like JPMorgan's and statements from figures like Donald Trump and Péter Szijjártó on future Western military and financial aid to Ukraine. Assess the implications of the US Vice President's statements on global power shifts. Evaluate the strategic implications of the €150 billion EU militarization fund for Ukraine's long-term security. Analyze the implications of Lavrov's statements on negotiation prospects and his attempts to frame European and US actions.
Local Governance Optimization: Develop recommendations for optimizing resource allocation and prioritization for local Ukrainian authorities, particularly in frontline cities like Kherson and Kremenchuk, balancing essential services with immediate security needs and protecting emergency responders.
Manpower and Attrition (Glushkovsky/Yunakiivka): Analyze Russian claims of Ukrainian manpower losses and mobilize prisoners and women, cross-referencing with other data, to refine Ukrainian manpower assessment models and identify areas requiring immediate reinforcement or strategic adjustments. Analyze the implications of the death of Lieutenant Colonel Serditov for Russian command effectiveness and internal discipline.
Russian Non-Combat Losses: Incorporate Russian non-combat losses (Mi-8 crash, Lieutenant Colonel Serditov's death) into overall attrition models.
Russian Anti-Drone Effectiveness: Model the potential impact of new Russian anti-drone technologies like IGLA and the "Somali" battalion's anti-UAV operations on Ukrainian drone operations. Analyze the effectiveness of Russian Lancet strikes.
Russian "Triple Chokehold" Countermeasures: Model and simulate potential Ukrainian countermeasures to Russia's "triple chokehold" tactic, evaluating their effectiveness in different scenarios.
Social Impact of Returning Combatants (Russia): Analyze the long-term societal and security implications of Russia's policy of releasing convicts to fight, based on incidents like the one in North Ossetia and the Serditov case, and assess the impact of military cemetery neglect on morale.
Air Asset Integration Risks: If the F-16 friendly fire incident is verified, analyze the implications for pilot training, IFF systems, and air traffic control procedures when integrating new air assets.
Geopolitical Alignment: Analyze Rybar's Sudan and Syria analyses for insights into Russia's broader geopolitical perspectives and strategic priorities beyond Ukraine, particularly regarding influence in Africa and the Middle East.
Ukrainian Command Decisions: Analyze the operational implications of high-level command decisions, such as the dismissal of the 59th Brigade commander, on unit effectiveness and accountability.
FPV Drone Effectiveness: Refine models for FPV drone effectiveness in various combat scenarios, integrating new data from Ukrainian unit reports, including their anti-personnel and anti-armor capabilities and their role in targeting enemy drone operators.
Frontline Logistics and Production (Russia): Analyze the role and effectiveness of "phantom workshops" and other unofficial support structures in sustaining Russian combat operations.

Reporting and Visualization:

Prisoner Exchange Dashboard: Create a dynamic dashboard tracking prisoner exchange progress, including numbers, categories of personnel, and subsequent support provided, and the number of collaborators exchanged. Include visuals of the returned individuals. Include timelines for expected completion. Include insights from the POW panel discussion.
Updated Frontline Maps: Continuously update detailed maps showing claimed Russian advances in Otradnoye, Komar, Zelene Pole, Ivan-Darivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Novoolenovka, and other areas, juxtaposed with Ukrainian defensive lines and counter-attacks. Highlight areas of intense combat, such as Pokrovsk. Illustrate the impact of the "triple chokehold" tactic on these maps.
Deep Strike Effectiveness Reports: Generate reports on the confirmed impact of Ukrainian deep strikes (e.g., Lipetsk, Vasylivka, Bakhmut command post, Tula, Ryazan refinery, Patriot Park, Kremenchuk) including BDA and strategic implications. Include details on the strike on the Ukrainian airfield.
New Drone Capability Briefs: Prepare technical and operational briefs on the "Batyar" drone and the new gasoline-powered V2U variant for relevant commands and international partners.
Western Policy Impact Briefs: Provide regular briefings on the implications of changing Western political rhetoric and analytical assessments for Ukraine's strategic planning, including US and EU statements and the impact of new EU military funding.
Local Governance Challenges Briefs: Prepare concise briefs for Ukrainian central command on best practices for local governance in high-threat areas, based on feedback from sources like Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk, with a specific focus on protecting emergency responders in cities like Kremenchuk.
Russian Internal Security Incident Reports: Detail Russian FSB claims and their potential propaganda value, such as the Kaliningrad terror plot and the social impact of returning convicts, and the neglect of military cemeteries. Provide a dedicated report on the death of Lieutenant Colonel Sergey Serditov and the implicated war crimes.
Enemy Anti-Drone Capability Briefs: Prepare briefings on new Russian anti-drone technologies (IGLA, "Somali" battalion's anti-UAV operations) and their potential impact on Ukrainian operations, and on the effectiveness of Russian Lancet strikes.
Information Warfare Analysis Report: Produce a comprehensive report on the Russian Foreign Ministry's recent statements, analyzing their narrative, intended audience, and potential impact on international perceptions and future negotiations. Include a visual representation of claimed Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory and Russian characterizations of returned prisoners, including claims about POW exchange numbers. Include an analysis of the Portnov assassination allegations and their information warfare implications.
Air Force Integration Challenges (If confirmed F-16): Prepare a separate brief on the potential F-16 friendly fire incident, outlining confirmed facts, implications, and recommendations for mitigation.
Geopolitical Briefs: Integrate analysis of the Sudan and Syria conflicts as examples of Russia's broader geopolitical strategy and its implications for Ukraine.
Command Accountability Briefs: Prepare briefs on significant command changes and their stated reasons (e.g., 59th Brigade commander dismissal) for internal review and lessons learned.
Russian Frontline Logistics Briefs: Detail the role of "phantom workshops" and other unofficial support structures in Russian operations.

Feedback Loop:

Prisoner Support Feedback: Establish immediate feedback channels with released prisoners and their support teams to assess post-captivity needs and improve rehabilitation programs.
Frontline Unit Feedback: Maintain constant feedback with ground units in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts to verify Russian advances and refine tactical responses, particularly regarding attrition rates and resupply needs. Gather feedback on the effectiveness of Ukrainian counterattacks against Russian advances and their experience with the "triple chokehold" tactic, and Russian gains in Ivan-Darivka and Verkhnokamyanske, and the "motorcycle assault" tactics. Gather feedback on the impact of the Bakhmut command post strike. Provide feedback from units on the performance of dismissed commanders. Gather feedback on the use of FPV drones in offensive and counter-UAV roles.
Drone Development Feedback: Direct feedback loop with "Batyar" drone developers and V2U drone analysis teams for continuous improvement based on operational insights and evolving threats. Also gather feedback on the effectiveness of current counter-drone measures against new Russian anti-drone technologies, including "Baba Yaga" drones and Lancet strikes.
International Partner Feedback: Engage actively with international partners to understand their evolving policy stances and address any concerns arising from reports like JPMorgan's and US/EU statements, and Lavrov's comments.
Local Authority Feedback: Establish a formal feedback mechanism with local administrations in high-threat areas to ensure security measures are prioritized and effectively implemented, particularly in response to drone and artillery attacks like those in Dnipropetrovsk and Kremenchuk, and to improve protection for emergency responders.
Counter-Disinformation Feedback: Collect feedback on the effectiveness of counter-disinformation campaigns in response to Russian narratives, including Lavrov's and the Russian Foreign Ministry's statements, and the claims about POW exchange numbers. Gather feedback on the narrative surrounding Portnov's assassination.
Air Force Feedback: (If F-16 incident confirmed) Establish a feedback loop with Air Force command and pilots involved in integrating new Western aircraft to gather lessons learned and refine operational procedures.
Humanitarian Response Feedback: Establish feedback loops with emergency services and civilian populations affected by attacks (e.g., Kremenchuk) to improve response protocols and minimize casualties.

Situation Report