Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing

Major Updates on the Military Situation

The military situation is characterized by persistent Russian ground offensives, particularly around Donetsk Oblast, and extensive, widespread drone activity from both sides. Russian forces continue to assert localized tactical gains near Artemovsk/Ozarayanovka and claim to have reached the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a claim categorically denied and debunked by Ukrainian authorities as a deliberate fake for intimidation. Ukraine actively counters these efforts with highly effective FPV drone strikes against Russian logistics, personnel, and even engineering efforts. Evidence reveals intercepted Russian orders for the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war, highlighting severe war crimes and a concerning escalation in combat ethics.

Diplomatically, discussions regarding a ceasefire and peace negotiations persist, with "technical talks" potentially resuming in the Vatican. However, Russia's explicit territorial ambitions, including for Sumy Oblast, coupled with contradictory statements from its officials regarding peace terms, indicate a hardened stance. The perceived "wavering" of US support for Ukraine, particularly concerning sanctions and direct involvement in peace mediation, as reported by statements attributed to former US President Trump, poses a significant risk to Western unity and sustained aid. Ukraine is actively seeking to solidify EU support for harsher sanctions in response.

Internally, Russia continues to contend with widespread Ukrainian drone attacks on its territory, including multiple interceptions over Moscow, leading to mobile internet disruptions in several oblasts. Ukrainian forces prioritize the rapid development and deployment of advanced digital systems for personnel management and enhance their counter-UAV capabilities through NATO-backed innovation efforts. Both sides increasingly rely on crowd-funded and improvised drone solutions, suggesting potential logistical strains.

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense, multi-front ground combat across the entire Donbas axis, particularly around Donetsk Oblast, with Russian forces asserting tactical gains and maintaining pressure on key settlements like Bahatyr, Novopol, Zelenoe Pole, and areas near Toretsk and Siversk. Ukrainian forces are largely holding defensive lines, successfully repelling numerous assaults, but face overwhelming Russian firepower. There are confirmed Russian ground advances on the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border (categorically denied by Ukraine as a fake, yet Russian sources persist with claims of reaching the border in Novonikolaevka area with 90th Guards Tank Division) and continued Russian offensive pressure in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts and cross-border regions of Kursk Oblast, including claimed advances near Loknya and Yunakovka, with Ukrainian forces responding effectively, notably with the 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade fighting in Huevo (Kursk/Sumy border region).

Widespread drone activity from both sides is a defining feature. Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate highly effective FPV drone strikes against Russian logistics, personnel, and engineering efforts, with numerous examples of precision hits on vehicles and personnel. They are also actively engaged in counter-UAV operations, including a successful FPV interceptor drone downing of a Russian "Zala" reconnaissance UAV near Kostiantynivka. Russian forces are also heavily utilizing drones, guided aerial bombs (KABs), and artillery, targeting both frontline positions and rear areas. Significant Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, including multiple interceptions over Moscow, have caused mobile internet disruptions across several Russian oblasts.

A critical and highly sensitive development is the emergence of intercepted Russian orders for the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war, with specific audio and video evidence linked to the Russian 394th Regiment. This points to severe war crimes and internal disciplinary issues within Russian ranks, with claims of officers threatening to shoot "refuseniks" or deserters. These allegations are further compounded by social media comments from Russian users, including relatives, accusing military commanders of incompetence and sending soldiers "to the meat" at locations like Staromaiorske, highlighting significant internal discontent and morale issues.

The Iskander ballistic missile strike on a Ukrainian training camp in Shostka, Sumy Oblast, resulting in 6 killed and over 10 wounded servicemen, and subsequent calls for the dismissal of the Commander-in-Chief, underscore severe Ukrainian OPSEC failures and Russia's precision strike capabilities.

Diplomatically, signals indicate potential shifts in international support for Ukraine. Former US President Trump has reportedly informed European leaders of his conviction that Russia is "winning," repeated "Kremlin's talking points," refused to join new EU sanctions, and stated the US would "yield its role in the settlement to Europe." This has "stunned" European leaders and poses a significant risk to Western unity and sustained aid. In response, Ukraine is actively seeking to solidify EU support for harsher sanctions, including those against Russia's "shadow fleet" and its energy and banking sectors, with the EU confirming willingness to apply tougher sanctions if Russia refuses a ceasefire. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated a hardline stance, refusing "truce-and-then-we'll-see" scenarios and emphasizing negotiations will proceed without pausing combat. Russia also continues to promote narratives of "museumification" for destroyed Ukrainian cities like Avdiivka and accuses Ukraine of recruiting mercenaries.

Internally, Russia is intensifying its internal security measures and recruitment efforts, with reports of FSB detentions of individuals suspected of providing intelligence to Ukraine, and a recruitment poster targeting "patriots" for contract service. Internal challenges persist, including criminal activity by returning servicemen and efforts to suppress dissent against official narratives, as evidenced by legal actions against independent media founders and human rights activists. The Iran-Russia strategic partnership, formalizing a 20-year agreement, signifies a deepening of military, economic, and technological cooperation.

The conflict continues to exact a heavy human toll on both sides. Ukrainian efforts to manage POW/MIA cases and provide social support for servicemen and their families highlight ongoing humanitarian efforts. Challenges with mobilization evasion within Ukraine are evident, with instances like a man hiding in a tree to avoid recruitment.

Areas of Significant Activity

• Donetsk Oblast: Continues to be the primary focus of intense ground combat. Russian "Vostok" and "Center" Groups claim advances near Otradnoe, Bogatyr, Novopol, Verkhnekamenskoye, Grigoryevka, Novosergeevka, Novonikolaevka, and Muravka, with fierce fighting reported in Orekhovo. Russian sources claim breakthroughs on the Konstantinovka direction towards Nova Poltavka and advances aimed at encircling a Ukrainian grouping and taking Konstantinovka logistics under fire control. A Russian military blogger claims Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk. Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade shot down a Russian "Zala" reconnaissance UAV near Kostiantynivka. Russian forces claim destruction of Ukrainian equipment and personnel, including an FH-70 howitzer with a "Lancet." DeepState reports dynamic battles for Bahatyr, with Russian "motorcycle assaults" and Ukrainian counter-cleaning operations. Ukrainian FPV drone strike near Chasiv Yar on a Russian combatant.
  • New Update: Russian forces are engaged in continued battles northwest of Dyleyevka, attempting to secure forest belts and countering Ukrainian drone control points. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point near Dyleyevka using artillery. Russian sources claim that a sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) attempted to penetrate Krymske, but their position was destroyed by Russian drone operators. The area from the outskirts of Dzerzhynsk to the St. Matrona of Moscow mine is transitioning into a "grey zone."
• Sumy Oblast: Affected by Russian ground pressure, aerial activity, and the significant Iskander strike. Russian sources claim advances near Loknya and Yunakovka, with marine infantry engaged near Myropillya, aiming to expand the buffer zone. Ukrainian forces confirm the Iskander strike on a training camp near Shostka, with 6 killed and over 10 wounded, leading to calls for dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief due to OPSEC failures. Russian tactical aviation launched KABs and missiles on Sumy Oblast.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne, accumulating reserves. Ukrainian Border Guard Service's "Phoenix" brigade reports destroying 20 units of Russian automotive equipment and multiple artillery pieces. Ukrainian aeroreconnaissance units are crowdfunding for vehicles on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces claim a Starlink satellite communication station was destroyed in Kharkiv region. Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration is constructing underground schools. Oleg Synegubov reports transfer of 10 minibuses to the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Khartiya" in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Putin stated Ukrainian forces attempt to cross the border daily. Russian air defense claims large numbers of Ukrainian UAVs intercepted (135 total between 04:00-18:00 MSK) over Kursk and surrounding regions. Russian sources claim repelling Ukrainian assaults near Novy Put with destruction of BMPs and Stryker APCs.
  • New Update: Two elderly men were wounded in Ukrainian drone attacks in Glushkovsky and Korenevsky districts of Kursk Oblast.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Pro-Russian sources claim elements of the Russian 90th Tank Division reached the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the Novonikolaevka area; Ukrainian authorities deny this as a fake. Russian attacks using FPV drones and heavy artillery targeted Nikopol, Marhanets, and Hrushivka communities.
• Russian Deep Rear (Moscow, Oryol, Bryansk, Tula, Vladimir, Kaluga, Ryazan, Lipetsk, Belgorod Oblasts, Republic of Crimea): Widespread interception of Ukrainian drones reported, with mobile internet disruptions in Moscow and Tula Oblasts. FSB detained a resident of Kaluga Oblast for allegedly collecting data on Russian air defense for Ukraine.
  • New Update: Domodedovo Airport in Moscow temporarily suspended operations due to drone activity. Shebekino in Belgorod Oblast reported a civilian wounded by a drone attacking a moving car, resulting in traumatic amputation of his right arm. Another man was wounded in Golovchino, Grayvoron district, by a drone attack.

Strategic Outlook

The conflict remains a brutal war of attrition. Russia's strategic goals of territorial expansion are evident in relentless offensives in Donbas, claimed advances towards Dnipropetrovsk, and explicit ambitions for Sumy. Ukrainian defenses are robust but under immense pressure, reliant on effective deep defense and sustained Western support.

The confirmed intercepted Russian orders for POW executions and the significant increase in documented cases of such war crimes are strategically critical. This will intensify international legal and diplomatic pressure on Russia and likely harden Ukrainian resolve, impacting combat dynamics. Conversely, Russia's counter-narratives about Azov militants ordering POW killings indicate a sophisticated information war.

The perceived softening of US support under former President Trump's influence, if materialized, poses the most significant strategic threat to Ukraine. This could weaken Western unity, reduce military and financial aid, and force Europe to bear a greater burden. Ukraine's proactive diplomatic push for stronger EU sanctions is a direct response to this perceived vulnerability.

Both sides' increasing reliance on drones, coupled with crowdfunding efforts, highlights technological adaptation but also potential logistical strains on official supply chains. Ukraine's investment in digitalizing military administration and fostering innovation in counter-UAV technology is crucial for long-term defensive capabilities and operational efficiency. The strategic partnership between Iran and Russia is a significant geopolitical development, potentially bolstering Russia's capabilities and impacting global power dynamics.

Russian internal security measures and recruitment efforts, including targeting naturalized citizens, reflect efforts to maintain domestic control and manpower. However, public dissent and allegations of military misconduct indicate internal fragilities. The Ukrainian Iskander strike on a training camp points to crucial OPSEC lessons for Ukraine. Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory, while causing disruption, are unlikely to fundamentally alter Russia's will to fight unless targeting critical infrastructure on a much larger scale.

New Strategic Developments:

• Cyberattack Threat: The UK and allies issued a joint warning about a large-scale cyberattack, likely by Russian GRU, targeting the logistics network supporting aid to Ukraine and NATO critical infrastructure (logistics companies, IT services, seaports, airports, air traffic control). This indicates a significant escalation in hybrid warfare aimed at disrupting Western support.
• Ukrainian Strategic Communication on Border Operations: President Zelenskyy publicly highlighted active Ukrainian operations in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts as a direct measure to protect Sumy and Kharkiv, claiming over 63,000 Russian casualties in Kursk since August and replenishing Ukraine's prisoner exchange fund. This clarifies Ukraine's rationale for cross-border incursions and frames them as defensive rather than purely offensive.
• Russian Claims of Ukrainian Defensive Weakness: Russian sources are amplifying narratives about Ukrainian forces "screaming" and suffering heavy losses near Volchanskie Khutora and Tikhoe (Kharkiv Oblast), attributing this to a lack of "adequate command" and critical deficiencies in manpower, ammunition, and communication. They also allege that Ukrainian units are losing positions due to perceived strategic errors like transferring reserves from Bogatyr to Sumy, and that this is causing internal disorganization within Ukrainian ranks, forcing officers to participate in direct combat. These narratives are part of a psychological operation aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian forces and their command.
• Ukrainian Crowdfunding for Drones: The 93rd Mechanized Brigade's "Phoenix" platoon's appeal for Mavic drones for ISR and precision strikes in the Bakhmut direction underscores the persistent demand for these critical assets and potential reliance on external funding.
• Russian Internal Suppression: The ongoing reporting of a critical audio leak from the 394th Russian Regiment, ordering the execution of "refuseniks," along with social media comments from relatives accusing commander "Saval" of sending soldiers "to the meat" at Staromaiorske, indicates severe internal disciplinary issues, morale collapse, and a breakdown of trust within Russian ranks. This information is a significant vulnerability for Russian command and control.

Recommendations

1. Exploit Russian Internal Discord and War Crimes:

   • Amplify and rigorously document all evidence of Russian war crimes, particularly the POW execution orders, for international legal proceedings (ICC, UN). This must be a sustained, high-profile diplomatic and public information campaign.
   • Leverage documented cases of internal military dysfunction, low morale, and combat refusal within Russian units (as evidenced by the "Saval" incidents) for psychological operations targeting Russian forces, encouraging surrender or defection.
   • Target specific Russian military commanders accused of atrocities or incompetence, undermining their authority and morale within their own ranks.

2. Bolster Air Defense and Counter-Drone Capabilities:

   • Prioritize and accelerate the deployment of layered air defense systems, including advanced anti-drone technologies, to protect critical military assets (like training camps) and civilian infrastructure, particularly in border regions and deep rear areas.
   • Intensify efforts to detect and neutralize all types of Russian FPV drones, including those with extended range and heavier payloads, by investing in and rapidly deploying advanced EW systems and kinetic interceptors. Actively engage with NATO-Ukraine JATEC to expedite solutions.
   • Continuously improve OPSEC for military training facilities and logistical hubs, implementing dynamic relocation and dispersion strategies.

3. Strengthen Western Unity and Counter Disinformation:

   • Launch an aggressive counter-information campaign against narratives of weakening US support, working closely with European allies to project a unified front and reaffirm commitments to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
   • Actively engage with the incoming US administration to articulate Ukraine's strategic needs and highlight the direct consequences of any perceived withdrawal of support.
   • Provide European partners with comprehensive intelligence briefings on Russian intentions and capabilities to solidify their resolve for sustained, robust sanctions and military aid. Prioritize collaboration on the 18th EU sanctions package, focusing on energy, banking, and the "shadow fleet."

4. Enhance Logistics, Mobilization, and Force Protection:

   • Implement immediate, comprehensive reviews and reforms of military OPSEC protocols, particularly for training and logistical operations near the border.
   • Address and rectify challenges in mobilization and border control by identifying systemic issues and implementing more equitable and effective recruitment methods, while combating evasion with community engagement.
   • Prioritize the physical and psychological well-being of Ukrainian forces, leveraging successful internal morale-boosting initiatives (like the 80th Air Assault Brigade's approach) and providing robust mental health support to combat burnout and maintain cohesion.
   • Ensure robust logistical support to all active fronts, continuously adapting supply chains to counter Russian interdiction efforts (e.g., drone attacks on supply routes).

5. Accelerate Domestic Defense Production and Technological Edge:

   • Fast-track domestic production of critical defense items, especially drones and EW systems, by streamlining bureaucratic processes and increasing state prioritization and funding.
   • Aggressively pursue acquisition and integration of advanced Western military technologies, such as the Turkish Kemankes mini cruise missile, to provide new offensive and defensive capabilities.
   • Continue investment in digitalizing military processes (e.g., "Impulse," "Резерв+") to enhance real-time situational awareness, resource allocation, and overall command efficiency.

6. Maintain Civilian Resilience and Document Atrocities:

   • Continue the construction of hardened civilian infrastructure, such as underground schools and shelters, in frontline regions to protect civilians and maintain essential services.
   • Ensure swift humanitarian response and aid to all areas affected by Russian attacks, and meticulously document all civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure for future legal processes and to support international calls for accountability and reconstruction aid.
   • Actively commemorate historical injustices (e.g., Crimean Tatar deportation) to reinforce national identity and highlight parallels with current Russian aggression.

7. Counter Cyber Threats to Logistics:

   • Immediately elevate cybersecurity defenses for all logistics networks supporting aid to Ukraine and critical infrastructure within NATO member states, in light of the GRU cyberattack warning. Implement enhanced monitoring, threat intelligence sharing, and rapid response protocols.
   • Work with allied partners to share intelligence on Russian cyber tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) related to logistical network attacks.