Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing

Executive Summary

The military situation is characterized by persistent Russian ground offensives, particularly around Donetsk Oblast, and extensive, widespread drone activity from both sides. Russian forces continue to assert localized tactical gains near Artemovsk/Ozarayanovka and claim to have reached the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a claim categorically denied and debunked by Ukrainian authorities as a deliberate fake for intimidation. Ukraine actively counters these efforts with highly effective FPV drone strikes against Russian logistics, personnel, and even engineering efforts. Evidence reveals intercepted Russian orders for the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war, highlighting severe war crimes and a concerning escalation in combat ethics.

Diplomatically, discussions regarding a ceasefire and peace negotiations persist, with "technical talks" potentially resuming in the Vatican. However, Russia's explicit territorial ambitions, including for Sumy Oblast, coupled with contradictory statements from its officials regarding peace terms, indicate a hardened stance. The perceived "wavering" of US support for Ukraine, particularly concerning sanctions and direct involvement in peace mediation, as reported by statements attributed to former US President Trump, poses a significant risk to Western unity and sustained aid. Ukraine is actively seeking to solidify EU support for harsher sanctions in response.

Internally, Russia continues to contend with widespread Ukrainian drone attacks on its territory, including multiple interceptions over Moscow, leading to mobile internet disruptions in several oblasts. Ukrainian forces prioritize the rapid development and deployment of advanced digital systems for personnel management and enhance their counter-UAV capabilities through NATO-backed innovation efforts. Both sides increasingly rely on crowd-funded and improvised drone solutions, suggesting potential logistical strains.

Major Updates

Intensified Combat and Drone Warfare

• Russian Advances & Fortification:

  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Border: Pro-Russian sources claim leading units of the Russian 90th Tank Division of the "Center" Group have reached the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with accompanying videos and photos showing personnel with Russian flags and concertina wire deployment. Ukrainian authorities (Serhiy Lysak, head of Dnipropetrovsk RMA) categorically deny these claims, labeling them as fakes intended to intimidate and destabilize. DeepState.UA, a Ukrainian OSINT project, concurs, stating the photo originated from Ukrainian forces whose vehicle became entangled in wire near Troitskoye, with Russian forces later arriving to stage photos.
  • Donetsk Oblast:
    • Russian "Vostok" Group claims advances of up to 2 km along the front and 1 km deep in forest belts near Otradnoe and Bogatyr (Southern-Donetsk direction), and clearing the northern part of Novopol.
    • Rybar reports Russian forces have advanced into the western outskirts of Verkhnekamenskoye on the Seversk direction, with Ukrainian forces retaining presence in the southern part, making the village a "grey zone." Russian forces also advanced towards Grigoryevka near Belogorovka, clearing a chalk quarry.
    • "Battle for Otradnoye" has reportedly begun, with "Vostok" Group units reaching the southeastern part of the settlement, described as a large fortified area. Russian forces are employing artillery, aviation, and FPV drones to prevent Ukrainian rotations or resupply, aiming to establish control over this "logistical hub."
    • Russian "Center" Group units continue to advance towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, fighting for the western part of Novosergeevka and entering southern/southeastern Novonikolaevka. Attacks also continue towards Muravka. Fierce fighting is reported in Orekhovo, and Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of Troitskoye, with battles continuing on its western outskirts.
    • Russian military maps show significant Russian territorial gains in the South-Donetsk direction, including claimed control over settlements like Kurakhovo and Ugledar, and a deep push towards Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Extensive Russian "dragon's teeth" and other fortifications are depicted. Settlements like Shevchenko, Peschanoye, and Zverevo are highlighted as areas of Russian advance near Pokrovsk.
  • "Motorcycle Assaults": Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne in Kharkiv Oblast, incurring heavy personnel and light vehicle losses, yet maintaining offensive pressure. Russia is accumulating reserves in these areas, suggesting continued intent to establish a "buffer zone."

• Ukrainian Counter-Actions & Drone Efficacy:

  • Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate highly effective FPV drone strikes, neutralizing Russian personnel and destroying armored vehicles. Notably, the 63rd Mechanized Brigade demonstrates precision FPV drone strikes against entrenched Russian personnel and positions, including those protected by EW. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces used drones to precisely target Russian personnel disembarking from boats.
  • The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade (III ОКРЕМА ШТУРМОВА БРИГАДА) showcases multiple FPV drone strikes against enemy infantry (exposed and in cover), artillery (two cannons, one mortar), and vehicles (light civilian-style vehicle, damaged tank).
  • Ukrainian Border Guard Service's "Phoenix" brigade reports destroying 20 units of Russian automotive equipment, three 152-mm Msta-B howitzers, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, two other cannons, and six fuel/lubricant depots in Kharkiv Oblast over the past week using strike drones. One video shows an FPV drone destroying a Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS after several hits, corrected by a German Vector drone near Zorya (south of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast).
  • Ukrainian Azov Regiment's 12th Separate Special Purpose Brigade (BSP) reports downing seven Russian reconnaissance UAVs (5 Zala and 2 Supercam), highlighting successful counter-UAV operations.
  • A Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet successfully intercepted and destroyed a Russian "Shahed" drone during a night attack.
  • Ukrainian forces are reportedly re-weaponizing unexploded Russian FPV drones with their own explosives and sending them back to Russian positions ("boomerang" tactic). (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
  • A "Voron" sniper group is crowdfunding for 4 motorcycles (for mobility) and a Lada Niva SUV (for casualty evacuation), indicating reliance on public support for critical tactical mobility and medical transport.
  • Ukrainian aeroreconnaissance units on the Pokrovsk direction are actively crowdfunding to acquire a vehicle, indicating continued reliance on external support for critical logistics in key operational areas.

• Russian Drone & Artillery Attacks:

  • Widespread Russian Drone Interceptions (Moscow, other regions): Russian air defense has reportedly destroyed multiple Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow, resulting in temporary "Carpet" flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo and other regional airports. Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin and other sources confirm multiple waves of Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow, with a total of 18 drones reportedly destroyed or repelled over Moscow Oblast alone. Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 30 Ukrainian UAVs destroyed or intercepted between 15:00 and 18:00 MSK over Oryol (11), Bryansk (5), Kursk (5), Moscow region (4), Tula (2), Vladimir (1), Kaluga (1), and Ryazan (1) Oblasts. Overall, Russian air defense claims to have destroyed or intercepted 135 Ukrainian UAVs between 04:00 and 18:00 MSK over various Russian regions, including Moscow, Oryol, Bryansk, Kursk, Ryazan, Belgorod, Lipetsk, Vladimir, Kaluga, Tula, and Republic of Crimea.
  • Mobile Internet Disruptions (Russia): Mobile internet access has been temporarily disabled in parts of Moscow Oblast and Tula Oblast, attributed by Tula Governor Dmitry Milyaev to "safety" measures against Ukrainian drone attacks. This confirms the expanding reach and impact of Ukrainian deep strike operations.
  • Targeting Civilian Infrastructure: Russian forces launched sustained drone attacks on Sumy using "Shahed" (Geranium) drones, hitting two enterprises and causing power outages and disrupting water supply due to damaged power lines. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, attacks using FPV drones and heavy artillery targeted Nikopol and Marhanets communities, as well as the Hrushivka community in Kryvorizky district, damaging infrastructure. Civilian casualties were reported in Kyiv Oblast (Boryspil district) from UAV debris. National Police of Ukraine reports one person killed and four injured in Russian attacks on Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. Fires in residential areas in Kupyansk and a destroyed entrance of a three-story residential building in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy from a guided aerial bomb. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, particularly in Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, is confirmed by images from the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office. A young mother was killed and her 4-year-old son injured in a Russian drone strike on her house in Obukhiv, Kyiv Oblast, attributed to "shahedas" (Shahed drones).
  • Chernihiv Oblast Civilian Casualty: Chernihiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office reports a 28-year-old local man was killed by a Russian UAV attack from Russian territory in Novgorod-Siverskyi district on May 21, 2025, at 11:30.
  • Sumy Iskander Strike: National Guard confirms Russian missile strike on a training ground near Shostka, Sumy Oblast, less than 50 km from the Russian border, resulting in 6 servicemen killed and 10 wounded. Calls for the dismissal of the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces followed.
  • Russian Losses: The Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian losses for the past day: 980 personnel, 1 tank, 2 armored fighting vehicles, 23 artillery systems, 71 UAVs, 76 vehicles/fuel tanks, and 1 special equipment unit, plus a heavy flamethrower system. They reported 164 combat engagements over the past day, with high intensity on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivsk directions.

• Russian Internal Issues & Adaptations:

  • FSB Counter-Intelligence: The FSB has reportedly apprehended a resident of Kaluga Oblast who was collecting information on Russian PVO (air defense) systems and communicating with "Ukrainian subversive groups."
  • Drone Resupply: Russian forces are using drones for unconventional resupply, including delivering cooked meals to soldiers in challenging forward positions.
  • VDV Reliance on Crowdfunding: Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) soldiers in the Zaporizhzhia direction showcased new DJI Inspire 2 drones, explicitly thanking crowdfunding sources ("Paratrooper's Diary" Telegram channel and "Two Majors" charitable foundation) for their acquisition. This highlights reliance on public donations for high-end ISR equipment, even for "elite" units.
  • Anti-Drone Cages: Photos from "Два майора" show UAZ-452 "Bukhanka" vans and other utility trucks modified with improvised "cope cages" on the Zaporizhzhia front, suggesting adaptation to drone threats.
  • Logistical Vulnerability: Russian military bloggers issued a warning about the dangers of crowding near shops or during cargo transfers in areas vulnerable to long-range enemy weapons and drones, stating that "people have died" due to such gatherings.
  • Targeting Starlink: The Russian "Vostok" Group's 64th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade claims to have destroyed a Starlink satellite communication system on the Polozhsk direction, highlighting a strategic focus on degrading Ukrainian battlefield communications. (Воин DV) The 1431st Motorised Rifle Regiment's strike UAV operator (Sever Group of Forces) claims to have destroyed a Starlink satellite communication station in Kharkiv region, indicating a persistent effort to disrupt Ukrainian communications.
  • Shoigu's Security: Russian sources claim former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has doubled his personal security (now 15 people) since Autumn 2024, reportedly fearing "internal enemies."

• Ukrainian Adaptations & Modernization:

  • Digital Personnel System "Impulse": The Ukrainian General Staff is testing a new digital personnel accounting system called "Impulse" during the formation of army corps. This system automates administrative tasks, provides real-time personnel data, and enables mobile reporting, directly improving situational awareness, resource allocation, and operational planning. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • "Резерв+" App Update: The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is urging users to update the "Резерв+" (Reserve+) mobile application to version 1.6.1 for a new security certificate, enhancing data protection and reliability for military registration. This highlights ongoing efforts to digitize and secure military personnel management.
  • NATO-Ukraine JATEC Centre: The NATO–Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre (JATEC) has prioritized finding technological solutions to combat Russian glide bombs and fiber-optic-controlled FPV drones in 2025. A NATO Innovation Challenge hackathon will be held on June 20 in Tallinn, Estonia, to find solutions for detecting and neutralizing fiber-optic FPV drones. Ukrainian experts are involved in the jury, and selected solutions will be transferred to Ukraine. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Underground Schools: The Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration is actively constructing new, fully accessible underground schools and shelters in Kharkiv Oblast to ensure continuity of education and safety for children amidst continuous shelling, reflecting a strategic adaptation to maintain essential services. (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
  • New Motorcycle Assault Company: The 425th "Skala" Battalion of Ukraine has showcased training for its first motorcycle assault company, indicating a new tactical adaptation leveraging high mobility.
  • Defense Technology Development: President Zelenskyy met with Ukrainian scientists, emphasizing the critical role of domestic science and innovation in defense. He noted issues with bureaucracy hindering rapid implementation of developments but highlighted direct presidential intervention through military staff meetings to accelerate mass production of critical items like drones and REW systems. He stressed the significant role of the private sector (over 70% of defense innovation) and the need for better state prioritization and funding.
  • First F-16 Pilot for Ukraine: Lieutenant Colonel Dmytro Fisher is identified as the first Ukrainian pilot to fly an F-16 over Ukraine in 2011 during the "Safe Sky" exercises in Myrhorod. The video highlights his exceptional skill, combat participation (including Snake Island), and ultimate sacrifice in 2023 when his Su-27 was shot down. This underscores the critical value of highly skilled pilots.

Escalation in Diplomatic and Information Warfare

• Russia's Explicit Territorial Ambitions: A Russian official publicly called for Russia to "take Sumy," arguing for the need to be "larger" and not live "like on a peninsula." Putin did not deny these goals, indicating direct territorial ambitions beyond currently occupied areas. Another Russian official, Khinshtein, reinforced this narrative by stating Sumy is "not a foreign region" to him.
• "USSR Legally Still Exists" Narrative: A Russian presidential advisor asserted that the 1991 dissolution of the USSR was "legally flawed," implying the "Ukrainian crisis" is an "internal process," providing a pseudo-legal justification for Russian aggression.
• Trump's Stance and Western Unity:
  • Bloomberg (via TASS) reports that former US President Donald Trump has informed European leaders of his conviction that Russia is "winning" and has repeated "Kremlin's talking points" after a phone call with Putin.
  • STERNENKO and Kotsnews report that the US is no longer insisting on a ceasefire in Ukraine, with Trump stating that "Russia and Ukraine must find their own solutions" and refusing to join new EU sanctions.
  • US State Secretary (Reportedly Rubio) states that the US "can no longer solve all the world's problems" and must prioritize "national interests." Rubio repeatedly avoided directly calling Putin a "war criminal," stating that "we will not end the war without talking to Putin." US State Secretary Rubio also explicitly stated that the US did not provide Ukraine with any military guarantees in exchange for minerals.
  • Trump has stated that if there is no significant progress on Ukraine, the US will "yield its role in the settlement to Europe." (РБК-Україна)
  • TASS reports, citing The Times, that the Trump-Putin call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions against Russia. (ТАСС)
  • RBC-Ukraine, citing Financial Times, reports European leaders were "stunned" by Trump's description of "arrangements" during his call with Putin, including his conveying that the US would withdraw involvement and leave Europe to negotiate a ceasefire, and that he did not promise future sanctions.
  • Trump publicly stated he believes "a lot of progress" was made in his two-and-a-half-hour call with Putin, despite calling the conflict a "bloodbath" with "5,000 soldiers a week" dying. He reiterated the conflict "doesn't affect us, it's not our people, it's not our soldiers." Trump publicly expressed his belief that Russia should not have been excluded from the G8, stating the G8 format was better than the G7, further signaling a desire for improved relations with Russia.
  • Trump's anecdote about calling Zelenskyy when he was reportedly in South Africa for peace talks (from July 2019, but presented as a recent event) highlights his communication style and potential for factual inaccuracies in high-level discussions. Russian MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova mockingly commented on Zelenskyy's visit to South Africa, correlating with Trump's surprise, framing it as a "tour."
• Russian Rejection of Ceasefire Conditions: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated that Russia will not accept "truce-and-then-we'll-see" scenarios, accusing European leaders of "hysterically" demanding increased anti-Russian actions. However, Peskov contradicts this by stating Russia is not delaying the peace process and is working on a ceasefire memorandum, highlighting conflicting messages from the Kremlin. Lavrov explicitly stated that Russia would not agree to a "truce-and-then-we'll-see" approach, emphasizing that negotiations with Ukraine would proceed without a pause in combat operations.
• "Museumification" of Destroyed Cities: Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed "DNR," stated that destroyed Ukrainian cities like Avdiivka might be "conserved" as "museums" to show the "tragic consequences of AFU attacks," a clear propaganda effort.
• Russian Accusations of Mercenary Recruitment: The head of the Russian Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, claimed Ukraine recruits mercenaries through its embassies abroad, identifying over 3,300 from 70+ countries and stating that infrastructure supporting such recruitment is a "legitimate target." He also stated the largest number of mercenaries are from Georgia, UK, USA, and Canada.
• Intercepted Russian Orders to Execute Ukrainian POWs: RBC-Ukraine reports that CNN has published intercepted Russian radio communications ordering the killing of Ukrainian prisoners of war. The intercepts allegedly coincide with drone footage from November 2023 in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, showing the apparent execution of surrendering Ukrainian troops. Ukrainian prosecutors report a significant increase in documented cases of POW executions (8 in 2023, 39 in 2024, 20 in first four months of 2025). The Russian Ministry of Defense also published a video of a captured Ukrainian serviceman claiming that Azov militants instructed them to kill Russian POWs and showed photos of Russian bodies being mocked. This footage, if corroborated, serves as strong evidence of war crimes.
• EU to Consider Harsher Sanctions: Ukraine will propose to the EU to consider tougher sanctions against Russia, including confiscation of assets of sanctioned individuals and secondary sanctions against foreign buyers of Russian oil (India and China), amidst perceived US hesitation. (STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ) President Zelenskyy informed the President of the European Council, António Costa, about ongoing diplomatic work and the approval of the 17th EU sanctions package. Zelenskyy highlighted that the next package is being prepared and should be stronger, including measures against the energy sector, banking, and Russia's "shadow fleet" (vessels and crews). Costa confirmed that these sanctions would be applied if Russia refused a ceasefire.
• Russian Propaganda Film: Russian state-backed organizations (Russian Military Historical Society, Combat Brotherhood, RIA Novosti, Znaniye) are promoting a film titled "Azov of the Brain - 2" by Marina Kim, aiming to demonize the Azov Regiment and justify Russian actions. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
• Bastrykin on Mariupol: Alexander Bastrykin, head of Russia's Investigative Committee, expressed "surprise" at the destruction of Mariupol, comparing it to Leningrad and claiming "no military targets were there." This is part of the Russian narrative to shift blame for the city's devastation.
• Russian Public Opinion on Sanctions: A poll conducted by Kotsnews showed that 30% of respondents believe the EU's logic for imposing sanctions is "to fight until the last Ukrainian," indicating a significant segment of Russian public opinion views Western support as a proxy war to exhaust Ukraine and Russia.

Domestic and International Developments

• Russian Economic Projections & Status:

  • Russian "Politburo" (inner leadership circle) has agreed on a gradual "fall" of the ruble to 140 rubles per US dollar by year-end, with experts anticipating "catastrophic" inflation.
  • The Russian Central Bank lowered the dollar exchange rate for May 22 to 79.75 rubles, while raising the euro to 91.3 rubles.
  • A Chinese credit rating agency (CCXI) has assigned Russia a "BBB+" rating with a stable outlook, stating that the Russian economy is "gradually adapting to sanctions" and "demonstrates resilience to shocks." CCXI also notes risks related to demand-supply imbalance, personnel shortages, and inflation. This contrasts with reports of US domestic economic concerns regarding rising national debt.
  • Russia's Digital Economy: The total revenue of the 100 largest digital companies in the Russian Federation amounted to 6.7 trillion rubles, a significant increase.
  • Russian Investigative Committee (SKR) reports over 7,000 criminal cases and 1,500 individuals, including Ukrainian leadership, investigated since 2014, with 554 Ukrainian servicemen and mercenaries convicted. They also cite 5,649 civilian deaths in Donbas due to Ukrainian aggression since 2014 and 8,000 shelling incidents in 43 Russian regions.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense is requiring the recovery of 2.6 billion rubles from the Vympel shipyard.

• Russian Credit Holidays: Over 532,200 Russian military personnel have received credit holidays since Autumn 2022, with a significant increase in 2024, indicating a substantial economic impact of the war on military families.

• Russian Casualty Reporting: Bastrykin stated that since 2014, 5,649 civilians have died in Donbas due to Ukrainian aggression, with over 7,900 shelling incidents reported across 43 Russian regions.

• Ukrainian Personnel Support: The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers approved extended social support for basic service and conscript military personnel and their families, including those in captivity, treatment, or missing. The Ukrainian General Staff is promoting a simplified procedure for military personnel who have voluntarily left their units (СЗЧ) to return to service, extended until August 30, 2025.

• Corruption Allegations (Ukraine): TASS, citing a Bihus.Info investigation, reports allegations that Zelenskyy's entourage is involved in corruption related to the construction of fortifications, with inflated prices in some regions. This is a significant report regarding potential internal corruption within Ukraine.

• Bitcoin Record High: RBC-Ukraine reports that Bitcoin has reached a new record of nearly $110,000, surpassing its peak during Trump's inauguration. This indicates a broader economic trend in cryptocurrency markets.

• Domestic Discontent (Russia): A video shows a pro-Kremlin Russian citizen expressing extreme anger over a sewage-flooded WWII veterans' cemetery in Samara, accusing local authorities of disrespect and neglect. An incident in Vladimir, Russia, involved a man of Central Asian origin allegedly attacking a doctor with a knife due to a dispute related to his wife's niqab and previous medical examination, indicating potential internal social and ethnic tensions.

• Internal Suppression (Russia): Criminal cases for "financing extremist activities" have been opened against journalist Alexander Nevzorov and his wife. Their family was previously deemed an "extremist organization," and property was confiscated. A Russian book store was fined 800,000 rubles for "LGBT propaganda" based on classic literature. The former Senator from Udmurtia, Viktor Khoroshavtsev, is accused of six episodes of large-scale fraud. The co-founder of the "Free Yakutia" foundation was declared wanted, possibly for "foreign agent" legislation violations or "discrediting the army," indicating continued suppression of dissent and independent organizations.

• Russian Diplomatic Engagement: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov met with Armenian Foreign Minister Pashinyan in Yerevan, signaling continued Russian diplomatic activity and influence in the South Caucasus.

• Russian Fundraising: A Russian "People's Front" campaign is fundraising for artillery units, specifically for drones, stating "drones have long been consumables, and they are always in short supply."

• EU Defense Fund: EU countries have agreed to create a defense fund of 150 billion euros.

• Iran-Russia Strategic Partnership: The Iranian Parliament approved a 20-year strategic partnership agreement with Russia, deepening cooperation in defense, economy (energy, finance, transport), international organizations (UN), combating "unilateral sanctions," developing alternatives to SWIFT, cybersecurity, AI, and recognizing a "new multipolar world order." This is a significant geopolitical development.

• Russia's "Time of Heroes" Program: Russia has launched a "Time of Heroes" presidential educational program for military participants and veterans of the "special military operation," with 85 new listeners including 31 "Hero of Russia" and 72 "Order of Courage" recipients. This program aims to cultivate future managerial elites from military backgrounds.

• Polish Stance on Troops in Ukraine: The Polish Prime Minister categorically stated that Poland will not send its troops to Ukraine. This contrasts with earlier radical rhetoric, which he attributed to domestic political shifts due to public fatigue with the war and Ukrainian refugees.

• Russian Naval Activity: The Russian large landing ship Peresvet conducted artillery firing drills at coastal, air, and sea targets in the Sea of Japan, demonstrating ongoing naval readiness.

• Russian Military Justice: The General Director of the Tenth Bearing Plant, Alexander Dyachenko, and other figures were arrested in a theft case, highlighting internal corruption issues in Russia, potentially in the military-industrial complex.

• "Lesta" (World of Tanks/Warships) Case: A court case on May 27 will clarify accusations against "Lesta" (Russian branch of Wargaming) regarding alleged continued ties to Wargaming, with accusations that the Western version of "World of Tanks" donated to the AFU while the Russian version promoted patriotism. This could impact a popular gaming platform used by hundreds of thousands in Russia.

• US Economic Concerns: Former US President Trump asserted the US has "too much debt," indicating domestic economic concerns possibly influencing foreign policy decisions.

Strategic Outlook

The conflict continues as a multi-domain war of attrition. Russia's strategic objective remains the territorial expansion into Ukraine, as evidenced by advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the relentless pressure in Donetsk, and the explicit ambition for Sumy. While the claim of reaching the Dnipropetrovsk border is actively denied by Ukrainian authorities, the narrative itself underscores Russia's territorial goals. The ongoing heavy use of guided aerial bombs and drones by Russia against Ukrainian frontline and civilian infrastructure aims to degrade capabilities and morale across a broad front. Ukraine's ability to hold ground depends heavily on effective defense in depth, sustained material support from allies, and a continued technological edge, particularly in drone warfare.

The revelations of intercepted Russian orders to execute POWs are gravely significant. This evidence of potential systemic war crimes will intensify calls for accountability and could profoundly impact the psychological dynamics of combat, potentially leading Ukrainian forces to resist more fiercely rather than surrender. The Russian Ministry of Defense's counter-claim about Azov militants ordering POW killings serves as a reactive information operation, attempting to deflect and mirror accusations.

The diplomatic landscape is increasingly fractured by former US President Trump's reported views, which appear to embolden Russia and threaten the unity of the Western alliance. His alleged statements to European leaders about the US disengaging from direct mediation and sanctions indicate a potential major shift in Western strategy, creating significant uncertainty. Ukraine's proactive push for harsher EU sanctions and deeper NATO cooperation is a strategic response to this potential erosion of US support, highlighting Ukraine's diplomatic agility. The reliance on crowdfunding for advanced military equipment on both sides, while showcasing grassroots support, also exposes underlying logistical challenges within official supply chains.

Ukraine's strategic investments in digitalizing military processes (like the "Резерв+" app) and fostering innovation in counter-UAV technology through international partnerships (JATEC) and domestic scientific development are crucial for maintaining its defensive capabilities and adapting to evolving threats. The construction of underground civilian infrastructure, such as schools, highlights Ukraine's commitment to long-term societal resilience despite the ongoing conflict.

The formal strategic partnership between Iran and Russia is a significant geopolitical development, signaling deeper military, economic, and technological cooperation. This alliance could further bolster Russia's capabilities in Ukraine (e.g., drone supplies, sanctions evasion strategies) and influence regional dynamics in the Middle East.

Russia's "Time of Heroes" program indicates a strategic focus on integrating military personnel into civilian leadership, aiming to leverage combat experience and maintain domestic support for the war effort through a narrative of valor and sacrifice. The mass interception of Ukrainian drones over a wide area of Russia, including Moscow, indicates Ukraine's expanding deep strike capabilities and its intent to inflict economic and psychological pressure on Russian territory, which in turn causes significant internal disruption in Russia (e.g., internet outages).

Recommendations

1. Exploit Russian Logistical Gaps & Adaptations:

   • Increase targeting of Russian "crowdfunding" efforts and their improvised logistics, as evidenced by the VDV's reliance on donated drones and the use of modified civilian vehicles. Identify and interdict these non-standard supply channels.
   • Develop and rapidly deploy more effective counter-measures against Russian improvised "cope cages" on vehicles, leveraging the data from recent strikes.
   • Monitor and analyze Russian adaptation to drone threats (e.g., motorcycle assaults) to anticipate future tactics and develop effective countermeasures.

2. Intensify Counter-Fortification & Counter-UAV Operations:

   • Prioritize real-time intelligence gathering on Russian engineering efforts (e.g., concertina wire deployment, new defensive lines) using ISR drones.
   • Implement rapid response protocols to interdict Russian fortification efforts with precision drone strikes and artillery, capitalizing on their vulnerability during static activities.
   • Expedite the development and deployment of fiber-optic FPV drone countermeasures, actively leveraging NATO-Ukraine JATEC initiatives and lessons learned.

3. Strengthen Air Defense & Deep Strike Capabilities:

   • Accelerate the deployment of advanced air defense systems to critical civilian areas, especially in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and deep rear areas like Kyiv and Poltava, to mitigate continuous Russian drone and guided bomb attacks.
   • Continue and expand long-range drone strikes into Russian territory, focusing on military-industrial complex targets (like the Bolkhov Semiconductor Devices Plant) and critical infrastructure to disrupt their war-making capacity and create domestic pressure.

4. Strategic Communication & International Legal Action:

   • Launch an immediate, robust, and sustained international campaign to publicize and investigate the intercepted Russian orders for the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war, directly challenging Russia's counter-narratives. This must involve immediate engagement with international legal bodies (ICC, UN, etc.) to ensure accountability and pressure for adherence to the Geneva Conventions.
   • Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to the "US wavers" narrative, actively engaging with European leaders and international partners to highlight the enduring value of unified Western support and the strategic implications of any perceived disunity. Emphasize Europe's strong and independent stance on sanctions, as confirmed by President Zelenskyy's talks with António Costa.
   • Proactively expose Russian propaganda efforts, such as the "Azov of the Brain" film and the "USSR legally still exists" narrative, providing factual counter-arguments and highlighting their role in justifying aggression. Counter Russian claims on Mariupol's destruction by providing factual evidence of their targeting of civilian infrastructure.

5. Personnel Management & Force Protection:

   • Fully implement and expand the "Impulse" digital personnel management system and ensure widespread adoption of the "Резерв+" app across all military units to improve real-time situational awareness of personnel status, optimize resource allocation, and streamline administrative processes, reducing the burden on field commanders.
   • Ensure all units receive comprehensive training on force protection against drone threats, emphasizing dispersion, camouflage, and rapid response to aerial threats.
   • Address and rectify any alleged corruption related to fortification construction to maintain transparency, ensure efficient resource allocation, and preserve public trust in the war effort.

6. Maintain Humanitarian & Civilian Resilience:

   • Continue to prioritize and expand the construction of hardened civilian infrastructure, such as underground schools and shelters in frontline regions, to ensure the safety of the civilian population and continuity of essential services.
   • Ensure rapid humanitarian response and aid to all areas affected by Russian attacks, particularly where civilian infrastructure is damaged and casualties are reported.
   • Document all civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure for legal processes and to support international calls for aid and accountability.

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense, multi-front ground combat across the entire Donbas axis, particularly around Donetsk Oblast, with Russian forces asserting tactical gains and maintaining pressure on key settlements like Bahatyr, Novopol, Zelenoe Pole, and areas near Toretsk and Siversk. Ukrainian forces are largely holding defensive lines, successfully repelling numerous assaults, but face overwhelming Russian firepower. There are confirmed Russian ground advances on the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border (categorically denied by Ukraine as a fake, yet Russian sources persist with claims of reaching the border in Novonikolaevka area with 90th Guards Tank Division) and continued Russian offensive pressure in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts and cross-border regions of Kursk Oblast, including claimed advances near Loknya and Yunakovka, with Ukrainian forces responding effectively, notably with the 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade fighting in Huevo (Kursk/Sumy border region).

Widespread drone activity from both sides is a defining feature. Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate highly effective FPV drone strikes against Russian logistics, personnel, and engineering efforts, with numerous examples of precision hits on vehicles and personnel. They are also actively engaged in counter-UAV operations, including a successful FPV interceptor drone downing of a Russian "Zala" reconnaissance UAV near Kostiantynivka. Russian forces are also heavily utilizing drones, guided aerial bombs (KABs), and artillery, targeting both frontline positions and rear areas. Significant Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, including multiple interceptions over Moscow, have caused mobile internet disruptions across several Russian oblasts.

A critical and highly sensitive development is the emergence of intercepted Russian orders for the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war, with specific audio and video evidence linked to the Russian 394th Regiment. This points to severe war crimes and internal disciplinary issues within Russian ranks, with claims of officers threatening to shoot "refuseniks" or deserters. These allegations are further compounded by social media comments from Russian users, including relatives, accusing military commanders of incompetence and sending soldiers "to the meat" at locations like Staromaiorske, highlighting significant internal discontent and morale issues.

The Iskander ballistic missile strike on a Ukrainian training camp in Shostka, Sumy Oblast, resulting in 6 killed and over 10 wounded servicemen, and subsequent calls for the dismissal of the Commander-in-Chief, underscore severe Ukrainian OPSEC failures and Russia's precision strike capabilities.

Diplomatically, signals indicate potential shifts in international support for Ukraine. Former US President Trump has reportedly informed European leaders of his conviction that Russia is "winning," repeated "Kremlin's talking points," refused to join new EU sanctions, and stated the US would "yield its role in the settlement to Europe." This has "stunned" European leaders and poses a significant risk to Western unity and sustained aid. In response, Ukraine is actively seeking to solidify EU support for harsher sanctions, including those against Russia's "shadow fleet" and its energy and banking sectors, with the EU confirming willingness to apply tougher sanctions if Russia refuses a ceasefire. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated a hardline stance, refusing "truce-and-then-we'll-see" scenarios and emphasizing negotiations will proceed without pausing combat. Russia also continues to promote narratives of "museumification" for destroyed Ukrainian cities like Avdiivka and accuses Ukraine of recruiting mercenaries.

Internally, Russia is intensifying its internal security measures and recruitment efforts, with reports of FSB detentions of individuals suspected of providing intelligence to Ukraine, and a recruitment poster targeting "patriots" for contract service. Internal challenges persist, including criminal activity by returning servicemen and efforts to suppress dissent against official narratives, as evidenced by legal actions against independent media founders and human rights activists. The Iran-Russia strategic partnership, formalizing a 20-year agreement, signifies a deepening of military, economic, and technological cooperation.

The conflict continues to exact a heavy human toll on both sides. Ukrainian efforts to manage POW/MIA cases and provide social support for servicemen and their families highlight ongoing humanitarian efforts. Challenges with mobilization evasion within Ukraine are evident, with instances like a man hiding in a tree to avoid recruitment.

Areas of Significant Activity

• Donetsk Oblast: Continues to be the primary focus of intense ground combat. Russian "Vostok" and "Center" Groups claim advances near Otradnoe, Bogatyr, Novopol, Verkhnekamenskoye, Grigoryevka, Novosergeevka, Novonikolaevka, and Muravka, with fierce fighting reported in Orekhovo. Russian sources claim breakthroughs on the Konstantinovka direction towards Nova Poltavka and advances aimed at encircling a Ukrainian grouping and taking Konstantinovka logistics under fire control. A Russian military blogger claims Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk. Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade shot down a Russian "Zala" reconnaissance UAV near Kostiantynivka. Russian forces claim destruction of Ukrainian equipment and personnel, including an FH-70 howitzer with a "Lancet." DeepState reports dynamic battles for Bahatyr, with Russian "motorcycle assaults" and Ukrainian counter-cleaning operations. Ukrainian FPV drone strike near Chasiv Yar on a Russian combatant.
• Sumy Oblast: Affected by Russian ground pressure, aerial activity, and the significant Iskander strike. Russian sources claim advances near Loknya and Yunakovka, with marine infantry engaged near Myropillya, aiming to expand the buffer zone. Ukrainian forces confirm the Iskander strike on a training camp near Shostka, with 6 killed and over 10 wounded, leading to calls for dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief due to OPSEC failures. Russian tactical aviation launched KABs and missiles on Sumy Oblast.
• Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne, accumulating reserves. Ukrainian Border Guard Service's "Phoenix" brigade reports destroying 20 units of Russian automotive equipment and multiple artillery pieces. Ukrainian aeroreconnaissance units are crowdfunding for vehicles on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces claim a Starlink satellite communication station was destroyed in Kharkiv region. Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration is constructing underground schools. Oleg Synegubov reports transfer of 10 minibuses to the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Khartiya" in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Putin stated Ukrainian forces attempt to cross the border daily. Russian air defense claims large numbers of Ukrainian UAVs intercepted (135 total between 04:00-18:00 MSK) over Kursk and surrounding regions. Russian sources claim repelling Ukrainian assaults near Novy Put with destruction of BMPs and Stryker APCs.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Pro-Russian sources claim elements of the Russian 90th Tank Division reached the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in the Novonikolaevka area; Ukrainian authorities deny this as a fake. Russian attacks using FPV drones and heavy artillery targeted Nikopol, Marhanets, and Hrushivka communities.
• Russian Deep Rear (Moscow, Oryol, Bryansk, Tula, Vladimir, Kaluga, Ryazan, Lipetsk, Belgorod Oblasts, Republic of Crimea): Widespread interception of Ukrainian drones reported, with mobile internet disruptions in Moscow and Tula Oblasts. FSB detained a resident of Kaluga Oblast for allegedly collecting data on Russian air defense for Ukraine.

Strategic Outlook

The conflict remains a brutal war of attrition. Russia's strategic goals of territorial expansion are evident in relentless offensives in Donbas, claimed advances towards Dnipropetrovsk, and explicit ambitions for Sumy. Ukrainian defenses are robust but under immense pressure, reliant on effective deep defense and sustained Western support.

The confirmed intercepted Russian orders for POW executions and the significant increase in documented cases of such war crimes are strategically critical. This will intensify international legal and diplomatic pressure on Russia and likely harden Ukrainian resolve, impacting combat dynamics. Conversely, Russia's counter-narratives about Azov militants ordering POW killings indicate a sophisticated information war.

The perceived softening of US support under former President Trump's influence, if materialized, poses the most significant strategic threat to Ukraine. This could weaken Western unity, reduce military and financial aid, and force Europe to bear a greater burden. Ukraine's proactive diplomatic push for stronger EU sanctions is a direct response to this perceived vulnerability.

Both sides' increasing reliance on drones, coupled with crowdfunding efforts, highlights technological adaptation but also potential logistical strains on official supply chains. Ukraine's investment in digitalizing military administration and fostering innovation in counter-UAV technology is crucial for long-term defensive capabilities and operational efficiency. The strategic partnership between Iran and Russia is a significant geopolitical development, potentially bolstering Russia's capabilities and impacting global power dynamics.

Russian internal security measures and recruitment efforts, including targeting naturalized citizens, reflect efforts to maintain domestic control and manpower. However, public dissent and allegations of military misconduct indicate internal fragilities. The Ukrainian Iskander strike on a training camp points to crucial OPSEC lessons for Ukraine. Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory, while causing disruption, are unlikely to fundamentally alter Russia's will to fight unless targeting critical infrastructure on a much larger scale.

Recommendations

1. Exploit Russian Internal Discord and War Crimes:

   • Amplify and rigorously document all evidence of Russian war crimes, particularly the POW execution orders, for international legal proceedings (ICC, UN). This must be a sustained, high-profile diplomatic and public information campaign.
   • Leverage documented cases of internal military dysfunction, low morale, and combat refusal within Russian units (as evidenced by the "Saval" incidents) for psychological operations targeting Russian forces, encouraging surrender or defection.
   • Target specific Russian military commanders accused of atrocities or incompetence, undermining their authority and morale within their own ranks.

2. Bolster Air Defense and Counter-Drone Capabilities:

   • Prioritize and accelerate the deployment of layered air defense systems, including advanced anti-drone technologies, to protect critical military assets (like training camps) and civilian infrastructure, particularly in border regions and deep rear areas.
   • Intensify efforts to detect and neutralize all types of Russian FPV drones, including those with extended range and heavier payloads, by investing in and rapidly deploying advanced EW systems and kinetic interceptors. Actively engage with NATO-Ukraine JATEC to expedite solutions.
   • Continuously improve OPSEC for military training facilities and logistical hubs, implementing dynamic relocation and dispersion strategies.

3. Strengthen Western Unity and Counter Disinformation:

   • Launch an aggressive counter-information campaign against narratives of weakening US support, working closely with European allies to project a unified front and reaffirm commitments to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
   • Actively engage with the incoming US administration to articulate Ukraine's strategic needs and highlight the direct consequences of any perceived withdrawal of support.
   • Provide European partners with comprehensive intelligence briefings on Russian intentions and capabilities to solidify their resolve for sustained, robust sanctions and military aid. Prioritize collaboration on the 18th EU sanctions package, focusing on energy, banking, and the "shadow fleet."

4. Enhance Logistics, Mobilization, and Force Protection:

   • Implement immediate, comprehensive reviews and reforms of military OPSEC protocols, particularly for training and logistical operations near the border.
   • Address and rectify challenges in mobilization and border control by identifying systemic issues and implementing more equitable and effective recruitment methods, while combating evasion with community engagement.
   • Prioritize the physical and psychological well-being of Ukrainian forces, leveraging successful internal morale-boosting initiatives (like the 80th Air Assault Brigade's approach) and providing robust mental health support to combat burnout and maintain cohesion.
   • Ensure robust logistical support to all active fronts, continuously adapting supply chains to counter Russian interdiction efforts (e.g., drone attacks on supply routes).

5. Accelerate Domestic Defense Production and Technological Edge:

   • Fast-track domestic production of critical defense items, especially drones and EW systems, by streamlining bureaucratic processes and increasing state prioritization and funding.
   • Aggressively pursue acquisition and integration of advanced Western military technologies, such as the Turkish Kemankes mini cruise missile, to provide new offensive and defensive capabilities.
   • Continue investment in digitalizing military processes (e.g., "Impulse," "Резерв+") to enhance real-time situational awareness, resource allocation, and overall command efficiency.

6. Maintain Civilian Resilience and Document Atrocities:

   • Continue the construction of hardened civilian infrastructure, such as underground schools and shelters, in frontline regions to protect civilians and maintain essential services.
   • Ensure swift humanitarian response and aid to all areas affected by Russian attacks, and meticulously document all civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure for future legal processes and to support international calls for accountability and reconstruction aid.
   • Actively commemorate historical injustices (e.g., Crimean Tatar deportation) to reinforce national identity and highlight parallels with current Russian aggression.