Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing

Executive Summary

The military situation is characterized by persistent Russian ground offensives, particularly around Donetsk Oblast, and extensive, widespread drone activity from both sides. Russian forces continue to claim localized tactical gains near Artemovsk/Ozarayanovka and to have reached the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, emphasizing a strategic push towards deeper Ukrainian territory. Ukraine is actively countering these efforts with effective FPV drone strikes against Russian logistics and personnel, while also documenting extensive civilian infrastructure damage from Russian shelling and guided aerial bombs in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Critical intelligence includes intercepted Russian orders for the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war, indicating severe war crimes and a troubling escalation in combat ethics.

Diplomatically, discussions around a ceasefire and peace negotiations are ongoing, with "technical talks" potentially resuming in the Vatican. However, Russia's explicit territorial ambitions, including for Sumy Oblast, and contradictory statements from its officials regarding peace terms signal a hardened stance. The perceived "wavering" of US support for Ukraine, particularly concerning sanctions and direct involvement in peace mediation, as highlighted by reported statements from former US President Trump, presents a significant risk to Western unity and sustained aid. Ukraine is actively seeking to solidify EU support for harsher sanctions in light of this.

Internally, Russia continues to grapple with widespread Ukrainian drone attacks on its territory, including multiple interceptions over Moscow, leading to mobile internet disruptions in several oblasts. Ukrainian forces are prioritizing the rapid development and deployment of advanced digital systems for personnel management and strengthening their counter-UAV capabilities through NATO-backed innovation efforts. Both sides are increasingly reliant on crowd-funded and improvised drone solutions, indicating potential logistical strains.

Major Updates

Intensified Combat and Drone Warfare

• Russian Advances & Fortification:

  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Border: Pro-Russian sources (Alex Parker Returns, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Рыбарь) claim leading units of the Russian 90th Tank Division of the "Center" Group have reached the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Videos and photos accompanying these claims show personnel with Russian flags and concertina wire deployment, suggesting border demarcation or defensive establishment. This marks a significant advance.
  • Donetsk Oblast:
    • Russian "Vostok" Group claims advances of up to 2 km along the front and 1 km deep in forest belts near Otradnoe and Bogatyr (Southern-Donetsk direction), and clearing the northern part of Novopol.
    • Rybar reports Russian forces have advanced into the western outskirts of Verkhnekamenskoye on the Seversk direction, with Ukrainian forces retaining presence in the southern part, making the village a "grey zone." Russian forces also advanced towards Grigoryevka near Belogorovka, clearing a chalk quarry.
    • "Battle for Otradnoye" has reportedly begun, with "Vostok" Group units reaching the southeastern part of the settlement, described as a large fortified area. Russian forces are employing artillery, aviation, and FPV drones to prevent Ukrainian rotations or resupply, aiming to establish control over this "logistical hub."
    • Russian "Center" Group units continue to advance towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, fighting for the western part of Novosergeevka and entering southern/southeastern Novonikolaevka. Attacks also continue towards Muravka. Fierce fighting is reported in Orekhovo, and Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of Troitskoye, with battles continuing on its western outskirts.
    • Russian military maps (Z комитет + карта СВО) dated May 21, 2025, show significant Russian territorial gains in the South-Donetsk direction, including claimed control over settlements like Kurakhovo and Ugledar, and a deep push towards Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Extensive Russian "dragon's teeth" and other fortifications are depicted. Settlements like Shevchenko, Peschanoye, and Zverevo are highlighted as areas of Russian advance near Pokrovsk.
  • "Motorcycle Assaults": Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne in Kharkiv Oblast, incurring heavy personnel and light vehicle losses, yet maintaining offensive pressure. Russia is accumulating reserves in these areas, suggesting continued intent to establish a "buffer zone."

• Ukrainian Counter-Actions & Drone Efficacy:

  • Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate highly effective FPV drone strikes, neutralizing Russian personnel and destroying armored vehicles. Notably, the 63rd Mechanized Brigade demonstrates precision FPV drone strikes against entrenched Russian personnel and positions, including those protected by EW. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces used drones to precisely target Russian personnel disembarking from boats.
  • Border Guard Service's "Phoenix" brigade reports destroying 20 units of Russian automotive equipment, three 152-mm Msta-B howitzers, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, two other cannons, and six fuel/lubricant depots in Kharkiv Oblast over the past week using strike drones. One video shows an FPV drone destroying a Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS after several hits, corrected by a German Vector drone near Zorya (south of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast).
  • Ukrainian Azov Regiment's 12th Separate Special Purpose Brigade (BSP) reports downing seven Russian reconnaissance UAVs (5 Zala and 2 Supercam), highlighting successful counter-UAV operations.
  • A Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet successfully intercepted and destroyed a Russian "Shahed" drone during a night attack.
  • Ukrainian forces are reportedly re-weaponizing unexploded Russian FPV drones with their own explosives and sending them back to Russian positions ("boomerang" tactic). (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)

• Russian Drone & Artillery Attacks:

  • Widespread Russian Drone Interceptions (Moscow, other regions): Russian air defense has reportedly destroyed multiple Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow, resulting in temporary "Carpet" flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo and other regional airports. Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin and other sources confirm multiple waves of Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow, with a total of 18 drones reportedly destroyed or repelled over Moscow Oblast alone. (Новости Москвы, Два майора, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ASTRA, WarGonzo, Военкор Котенок, ТАСС)
  • Mobile Internet Disruptions (Russia): Mobile internet access has been temporarily disabled in parts of Moscow Oblast and Tula Oblast, attributed by Tula Governor Dmitry Milyaev to "safety" measures against Ukrainian drone attacks. This confirms the expanding reach and impact of Ukrainian deep strike operations.
  • Targeting Civilian Infrastructure: Russian forces launched sustained drone attacks on Sumy using "Shahed" (Geranium) drones, hitting two enterprises and causing power outages and disrupting water supply due to damaged power lines. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, attacks using FPV drones and heavy artillery targeted Nikopol and Marhanets communities, as well as the Hrushivka community in Kryvorizky district, damaging infrastructure. Civilian casualties were reported in Kyiv Oblast (Boryspil district) from UAV debris.
  • Kharkiv Oblast Civilian Damage: National Police of Ukraine reports one person killed and four injured in Russian attacks on Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. Fires in residential areas in Kupyansk and a destroyed entrance of a three-story residential building in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy from a guided aerial bomb. Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, particularly in Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, is confirmed by images from the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office.
  • Chernihiv Oblast Civilian Casualty: Chernihiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office reports a 28-year-old local man was killed by a Russian UAV attack from Russian territory in Novgorod-Siverskyi district on May 21, 2025, at 11:30.
  • Sumy Iskander Strike: Russian sources, corroborated by Ukrainian MPs and military bloggers, confirmed a Russian Iskander ballistic missile strike on a Ukrainian military training ground near Shostka, Sumy Oblast, less than 50 km from the Russian border, resulting in 6 servicemen killed and over 10 wounded. Calls for the dismissal of the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces followed.
  • Russian Losses: The Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian losses for the past day: 980 personnel, 1 tank, 2 armored fighting vehicles, 23 artillery systems, 71 UAVs, 76 vehicles/fuel tanks, and 1 special equipment unit, plus a heavy flamethrower system. They reported 164 combat engagements over the past day, with high intensity on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivsk directions.

• Russian Internal Issues & Adaptations:

  • FSB Counter-Intelligence: The FSB has reportedly apprehended a resident of Kaluga Oblast who was collecting information on Russian PVO (air defense) systems and communicating with "Ukrainian subversive groups."
  • Drone Resupply: Russian forces are using drones for unconventional resupply, including delivering cooked meals to soldiers in challenging forward positions.
  • VDV Reliance on Crowdfunding: Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) soldiers in the Zaporizhzhia direction showcased new DJI Inspire 2 drones, explicitly thanking crowdfunding sources ("Paratrooper's Diary" Telegram channel and "Two Majors" charitable foundation) for their acquisition. This highlights reliance on public donations for high-end ISR equipment, even for "elite" units.
  • Anti-Drone Cages: Photos from "Два майора" show UAZ-452 "Bukhanka" vans and other utility trucks modified with improvised "cope cages" on the Zaporizhzhia front, suggesting adaptation to drone threats.
  • Logistical Vulnerability: Russian military bloggers issued a warning about the dangers of crowding near shops or during cargo transfers in areas vulnerable to long-range enemy weapons and drones, stating that "people have died" due to such gatherings.
  • Targeting Starlink: The Russian "Vostok" Group's 64th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade claims to have destroyed a Starlink satellite communication system on the Polozhsk direction, highlighting a strategic focus on degrading Ukrainian battlefield communications. (Воин DV)

• Ukrainian Adaptations & Modernization:

  • Digital Personnel System "Impulse": The Ukrainian General Staff is testing a new digital personnel accounting system called "Impulse" during the formation of army corps. This system automates administrative tasks, provides real-time personnel data, and enables mobile reporting, directly improving situational awareness, resource allocation, and operational planning. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • NATO-Ukraine JATEC Centre: The NATO–Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre (JATEC) has prioritized finding technological solutions to combat Russian glide bombs and fiber-optic-controlled FPV drones in 2025. A NATO Innovation Challenge hackathon will be held on June 20 in Tallinn, Estonia, to find solutions for detecting and neutralizing fiber-optic FPV drones. Ukrainian experts are involved in the jury, and selected solutions will be transferred to Ukraine. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
  • Underground Schools: The Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration is actively constructing new, fully accessible underground schools and shelters in Kharkiv Oblast to ensure continuity of education and safety for children amidst continuous shelling, reflecting a strategic adaptation to maintain essential services. (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
  • New Motorcycle Assault Company: The 425th "Skala" Battalion of Ukraine has showcased training for its first motorcycle assault company, indicating a new tactical adaptation leveraging high mobility.

Escalation in Diplomatic and Information Warfare

• Russia's Explicit Territorial Ambitions: A Russian official publicly called for Russia to "take Sumy," arguing for the need to be "larger" and not live "like on a peninsula." Putin did not deny these goals, indicating direct territorial ambitions beyond currently occupied areas. Another Russian official, Khinshtein, reinforced this narrative by stating Sumy is "not a foreign region" to him.
• "USSR Legally Still Exists" Narrative: A Russian presidential advisor asserted that the 1991 dissolution of the USSR was "legally flawed," implying the "Ukrainian crisis" is an "internal process," providing a pseudo-legal justification for Russian aggression.
• Trump's Stance and Western Unity:
  • Bloomberg (via TASS) reports that former US President Donald Trump has informed European leaders of his conviction that Russia is "winning" and has repeated "Kremlin's talking points" after a phone call with Putin.
  • STERNENKO and Kotsnews report that the US is no longer insisting on a ceasefire in Ukraine, with Trump stating that "Russia and Ukraine must find their own solutions" and refusing to join new EU sanctions.
  • US State Secretary (Reportedly Rubio) states that the US "can no longer solve all the world's problems" and must prioritize "national interests." Rubio repeatedly avoided directly calling Putin a "war criminal," stating that "we will not end the war without talking to Putin."
  • Trump has stated that if there is no significant progress on Ukraine, the US will "yield its role in the settlement to Europe." (РБК-Україна)
  • TASS reports, citing The Times, that the Trump-Putin call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions against Russia. (ТАСС)
• Russian Rejection of Ceasefire Conditions: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated that Russia will not accept "truce-and-then-we'll-see" scenarios, accusing European leaders of "hysterically" demanding increased anti-Russian actions. However, Peskov contradicts this by stating Russia is not delaying the peace process and is working on a ceasefire memorandum, highlighting conflicting messages from the Kremlin.
• "Museumification" of Destroyed Cities: Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed "DNR," stated that destroyed Ukrainian cities like Avdiivka might be "conserved" as "museums" to show the "tragic consequences of AFU attacks," a clear propaganda effort.
• Russian Accusations of Mercenary Recruitment: The head of the Russian Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, claimed Ukraine recruits mercenaries through its embassies abroad, identifying over 3,300 from 70+ countries and stating that infrastructure supporting such recruitment is a "legitimate target."
• Intercepted Russian Orders to Execute Ukrainian POWs: RBC-Ukraine reports that CNN has published intercepted Russian radio communications ordering the killing of Ukrainian prisoners of war. The intercepts allegedly coincide with drone footage from November 2023 in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, showing the apparent execution of surrendering Ukrainian troops. Ukrainian prosecutors report a significant increase in documented cases of POW executions (8 in 2023, 39 in 2024, 20 in first four months of 2025). This is a severe allegation of war crimes.
• EU to Consider Harsher Sanctions: Ukraine will propose to the EU to consider tougher sanctions against Russia, including confiscation of assets of sanctioned individuals and secondary sanctions against foreign buyers of Russian oil (India and China), amidst perceived US hesitation. (STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ)
• Russian Propaganda Film: Russian state-backed organizations (Russian Military Historical Society, Combat Brotherhood, RIA Novosti, Znaniye) are promoting a film titled "Azov of the Brain - 2" by Marina Kim, aiming to demonize the Azov Regiment and justify Russian actions. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)

Domestic and International Developments

• Russian Economic Projections & Status:
  • Russian "Politburo" (inner leadership circle) has agreed on a gradual "fall" of the ruble to 140 rubles per US dollar by year-end, with experts anticipating "catastrophic" inflation.
  • The Russian Central Bank lowered the dollar exchange rate for May 22 to 79.75 rubles, while raising the euro to 91.3 rubles.
  • A Chinese credit rating agency (CCXI) has assigned Russia a "BBB+" rating with a stable outlook, stating that the Russian economy is "gradually adapting to sanctions" and "demonstrates resilience to shocks." CCXI also notes risks related to demand-supply imbalance, personnel shortages, and inflation. This contrasts with reports of US domestic economic concerns regarding rising national debt.
• Russian Credit Holidays: Over 532,200 Russian military personnel have received credit holidays since Autumn 2022, with a significant increase in 2024, indicating a substantial economic impact of the war on military families.
• Russian Casualty Reporting: Bastrykin stated that since 2014, 5,649 civilians have died in Donbas due to Ukrainian aggression, with over 7,900 shelling incidents reported across 43 Russian regions.
• Ukrainian Personnel Support: The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers approved extended social support for basic service and conscript military personnel and their families, including those in captivity, treatment, or missing. The Ukrainian General Staff is promoting a simplified procedure for military personnel who have voluntarily left their units (СЗЧ) to return to service, extended until August 30, 2025.
• Corruption Allegations (Ukraine): TASS, citing a Bihus.Info investigation, reports allegations that Zelenskyy's entourage is involved in corruption related to the construction of fortifications, with inflated prices in some regions. This is a significant report regarding potential internal corruption within Ukraine.
• Bitcoin Record High: RBC-Ukraine reports that Bitcoin has reached a new record of nearly $110,000, surpassing its peak during Trump's inauguration. This indicates a broader economic trend in cryptocurrency markets.
• Domestic Discontent (Russia): A video shows a pro-Kremlin Russian citizen expressing extreme anger over a sewage-flooded WWII veterans' cemetery in Samara, accusing local authorities of disrespect and neglect.
• Internal Suppression (Russia): Criminal cases for "financing extremist activities" have been opened against journalist Alexander Nevzorov and his wife. Their family was previously deemed an "extremist organization," and property was confiscated. A Russian book store was fined 800,000 rubles for "LGBT propaganda" based on classic literature.
• Russian Diplomatic Engagement: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov met with Armenian Foreign Minister Pashinyan in Yerevan, signaling continued Russian diplomatic activity and influence in the South Caucasus.
• Russian Fundraising: A Russian "People's Front" campaign is fundraising for artillery units, specifically for drones, stating "drones have long been consumables, and they are always in short supply."
• EU Defense Fund: EU countries have agreed to create a defense fund of 150 billion euros.

Strategic Outlook

The conflict continues as a multi-domain war of attrition. Russia's strategic objective remains the territorial expansion into Ukraine, as evidenced by advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the relentless pressure in Donetsk, and the explicit ambition for Sumy. The ongoing heavy use of guided aerial bombs and drones by Russia against Ukrainian frontline and civilian infrastructure aims to degrade capabilities and morale across a broad front. Ukraine's ability to hold ground depends heavily on effective defense in depth, sustained material support from allies, and a continued technological edge, particularly in drone warfare.

The revelations of intercepted Russian orders to execute POWs are gravely significant. This evidence of potential systemic war crimes will intensify calls for accountability and could profoundly impact the psychological dynamics of combat, potentially leading Ukrainian forces to resist more fiercely rather than surrender.

The diplomatic landscape is increasingly fractured by former US President Trump's reported views, which appear to embolden Russia and threaten the unity of the Western alliance. Ukraine's proactive push for harsher EU sanctions and deeper NATO cooperation is a strategic response to this potential erosion of US support. The reliance on crowdfunding for advanced military equipment on both sides, while showcasing grassroots support, also exposes underlying logistical challenges within official supply chains.

Ukraine's strategic investments in digitalizing military processes and fostering innovation in counter-UAV technology through international partnerships (JATEC) are crucial for maintaining its defensive capabilities and adapting to evolving threats. The construction of underground civilian infrastructure, such as schools, highlights Ukraine's commitment to long-term societal resilience despite the ongoing conflict.

Recommendations

1. Exploit Russian Logistical Gaps & Adaptations:

   • Increase targeting of Russian "crowdfunding" efforts and their improvised logistics, as evidenced by the VDV's reliance on donated drones and the use of modified civilian vehicles. Identify and interdict these non-standard supply channels.
   • Develop and rapidly deploy more effective counter-measures against Russian improvised "cope cages" on vehicles, leveraging the data from recent strikes.
   • Monitor and analyze Russian adaptation to drone threats (e.g., motorcycle assaults) to anticipate future tactics and develop effective countermeasures.

2. Intensify Counter-Fortification & Counter-UAV Operations:

   • Prioritize real-time intelligence gathering on Russian engineering efforts (e.g., concertina wire deployment, new defensive lines) using ISR drones.
   • Implement rapid response protocols to interdict Russian fortification efforts with precision drone strikes and artillery, capitalizing on their vulnerability during static activities.
   • Expedite the development and deployment of fiber-optic FPV drone countermeasures, actively leveraging NATO-Ukraine JATEC initiatives and lessons learned.

3. Strengthen Air Defense & Deep Strike Capabilities:

   • Accelerate the deployment of advanced air defense systems to critical civilian areas, especially in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and deep rear areas like Kyiv and Poltava, to mitigate continuous Russian drone and guided bomb attacks.
   • Continue and expand long-range drone strikes into Russian territory, focusing on military-industrial complex targets (like the Bolkhov Semiconductor Devices Plant) and critical infrastructure to disrupt their war-making capacity and create domestic pressure.

4. Strategic Communication & International Legal Action:

   • Launch an immediate, robust, and sustained international campaign to publicize and investigate the intercepted Russian orders for the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war. This must involve immediate engagement with international legal bodies (ICC, UN, etc.) to ensure accountability and pressure for adherence to the Geneva Conventions.
   • Develop and disseminate counter-narratives to the "US wavers" narrative, actively engaging with European leaders and international partners to highlight the enduring value of unified Western support and the strategic implications of any perceived disunity.
   • Proactively expose Russian propaganda efforts, such as the "Azov of the Brain" film and the "USSR legally still exists" narrative, providing factual counter-arguments and highlighting their role in justifying aggression.

5. Personnel Management & Force Protection:

   • Fully implement and expand the "Impulse" digital personnel management system across all military units to improve real-time situational awareness of personnel status, optimize resource allocation, and streamline administrative processes, reducing the burden on field commanders.
   • Ensure all units receive comprehensive training on force protection against drone threats, emphasizing dispersion, camouflage, and rapid response to aerial threats.
   • Address and rectify any alleged corruption related to fortification construction to maintain transparency, ensure efficient resource allocation, and preserve public trust in the war effort.

6. Maintain Humanitarian & Civilian Resilience:

   • Continue to prioritize and expand the construction of hardened civilian infrastructure, such as underground schools and shelters in frontline regions, to ensure the safety of the civilian population and continuity of essential services.
   • Ensure rapid humanitarian response and aid to all areas affected by Russian attacks, particularly where civilian infrastructure is damaged and casualties are reported.
   • Document all civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure for legal processes and to support international calls for aid and accountability.