Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing

Executive Summary

The military situation is marked by intensified ground combat and dynamic aerial operations, particularly in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Russian forces are actively pushing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with their 90th Tank Division reportedly reaching the administrative border. Ukrainian forces are maintaining robust defenses while effectively leveraging FPV drones for precision strikes against Russian logistics and personnel, contributing significantly to attrition. Ukrainian long-range drone capabilities are actively targeting deep into Russian territory, notably Moscow, resulting in widespread interceptions and disruptions.

A critical development is the confirmation of Russian advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with reports of leading units reaching the administrative border, and the continued offensive efforts in Donetsk, particularly around the Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) direction and the "Battle for Otradnoye," indicating a significant strategic push. Ukraine's strategic drone operations, exemplified by mass attacks on Moscow and alleged strikes on military-industrial targets like the Bolkhov Semiconductor Devices Plant, continue to impose pressure on Russian domestic security and military production.

On the information and political fronts, Russia continues to assert maximalist territorial claims, including on Sumy Oblast, and narratives of Ukrainian illegitimacy. Contradictory statements from Russian officials regarding peace talks underscore the Kremlin's complex diplomatic posture. Former US President Trump's reported conviction of Russia's victory and disinclination to support further sanctions against Russia present a growing risk of Western disunity and a potential reduction in support for Ukraine, impacting strategic decision-making. The report of intercepted Russian orders to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war is a grave development with significant international legal and ethical implications.

Economically, a Chinese credit rating agency (CCXI) has assigned Russia a "BBB+" rating with a stable outlook, indicating some economic resilience amidst sanctions, although internal risks like inflation and labor shortages persist. This contrasts with reports of US domestic economic concerns regarding rising national debt.

Major Updates

Intensified Combat and Drone Warfare

• Russian Advances in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk:
  • Russian "Vostok" Group claims advances of up to 2 km along the front and 1 km deep in forest belts near Otradnoe and Bogatyr (Southern-Donetsk direction). They also report clearing the northern part of Novopol and an area up to 500m deep. Rybar reports Russian forces have advanced into the western outskirts of Verkhnekamenskoye on the Seversk direction, with Ukrainian forces retaining presence in the southern part; however, the situation is complex and neither side fully controls the village. Russian forces also advanced towards Grigoryevka near Belogorovka, clearing a chalk quarry.
  • Russian "Center" Group units continue to advance towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, fighting for the western part of Novosergeevka and entering southern/southeastern Novonikolaevka. Attacks also continue towards Muravka. Fierce fighting is reported in Orekhovo, and Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of Troitskoye, with battles continuing on its western outskirts. Ukrainian counterattacks are noted in these areas.
  • New reports from pro-Russian sources (Colonelcassad, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Военкор Котенок, Alex Parker Returns, Mash na Donbasse, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА) claim that leading units of the Russian 90th Tank Division of the "Center" Group have reached the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. These reports often include images of personnel with Russian flags and concertina wire, suggesting border demarcation or defensive establishment.
  • Pro-Russian sources also claim advances by "Vostok" Group through Zelenoe Pole and Novopol, linking these efforts.
  • "Battle for Otradnoye" has reportedly begun, with "Vostok" Group units reaching the southeastern part of the settlement. Otradnoye is described as a large fortified area with defensive lines and natural cover. Russian forces are employing artillery, aviation, and FPV drones to prevent Ukrainian rotations or resupply, aiming to establish control over this "logistical hub" and advance towards Komar.
  • Russian military maps (Z комитет + карта СВО) dated May 21, 2025, show significant Russian territorial gains in the South-Donetsk direction, including claimed control over settlements like Kurakhovo and Ugledar, and a deep push towards Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Extensive Russian "dragon's teeth" and other fortifications are depicted, suggesting prepared defenses, while areas around Pokrovsk show Ukrainian fortifications. Settlements like Shevchenko, Peschanoye, and Zverevo are highlighted as areas of Russian advance near Pokrovsk.
• Ukrainian Counter-Actions and Drone Efficacy:
  • Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate highly effective FPV drone strikes, neutralizing Russian personnel and destroying armored vehicles. Notably, a Ukrainian T-64 tank was catastrophically destroyed by a Russian FPV drone near Kupyansk (Kasyanovka), while Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces used drones to precisely target Russian personnel, including those disembarking from boats. Ukrainian 63rd Mechanized Brigade demonstrates precision FPV drone strikes against entrenched Russian personnel and positions, including those protected by EW.
  • Ukrainian Border Guard Service's "Phoenix" brigade (Punishment Brigade) reports destroying 20 units of Russian automotive equipment, three 152-mm Msta-B howitzers, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, two other cannons, and six fuel/lubricant depots in Kharkiv Oblast over the past week using strike drones. One video shows an FPV drone destroying a Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS after several hits, corrected by a German Vector drone near Zorya (south of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast), indicating effective precision strikes on high-value targets.
  • Ukrainian Azov Regiment's 12th Separate Special Purpose Brigade (BSP) reports downing seven Russian reconnaissance UAVs (5 Zala and 2 Supercam), highlighting successful counter-UAV operations.
  • A Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet successfully intercepted and destroyed a Russian "Shahed" drone during a night attack, showcasing effective aerial defense capabilities.
  • Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces (TDF) are actively engaged in combat in Kharkiv Oblast and are equipped with heavy machine guns, showcasing their sustained operational readiness.
• Russian "Motorcycle Assaults": Russian forces persist with "motorcycle assault" tactics near Vovchansk and Dvorychne in Kharkiv Oblast, incurring heavy personnel and light vehicle losses, yet maintaining offensive pressure. Russia is accumulating reserves in these areas, suggesting continued intent to establish a "buffer zone."
• Widespread Russian Drone Interceptions and Counter-Intelligence:
  • Russian air defense has reportedly destroyed multiple Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow, resulting in temporary "Carpet" flight restrictions at Sheremetyevo and other regional airports. At least three more drones were destroyed approaching Moscow.
  • Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin and other sources (Новости Москвы, Два майора, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ASTRA, WarGonzo, Военкор Котенок, ТАСС) confirm multiple waves of Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow, with a total of 18 drones reportedly destroyed or repelled over Moscow Oblast alone.
  • The FSB has reportedly apprehended a resident of Kaluga Oblast who was collecting information on Russian PVO (air defense) systems in the region and communicating with "Ukrainian subversive groups." Seized items included multiple phones, power banks, and "dry shower" kits, suggesting preparations for clandestine operations. The detainee reportedly confessed, and a case of treason has been opened.
  • Russian military sources (MoD Russia) claim "Vostok" Group's Orlan-10 UAV team detected enemy targets in Zaporizhzhia direction, leading to artillery strikes that destroyed Ukrainian UAV command posts, disrupted communication, and thwarted unit rotations. This highlights integrated Russian ISR-strike capabilities.
• Russian Drone Resupply: Russian forces are using drones for unconventional resupply, including delivering cooked meals to soldiers in challenging forward positions, demonstrating adaptability in logistics.
• Ukrainian Ammunition Depot Destroyed: An epic explosion of a Russian ammunition depot after a Ukrainian FPV drone attack is reported in Novotroitskoye, Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian VDV Reliance on Crowdfunding for Drones: Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) soldiers in the Zaporizhzhia direction showcased new DJI Inspire 2 drones, explicitly thanking crowdfunding sources ("Paratrooper's Diary" Telegram channel and "Two Majors" charitable foundation) for their acquisition. This highlights reliance on public donations for high-end ISR equipment, even for "elite" units like the 7th Guards Airborne Assault Division, suggesting potential logistical gaps in official high-end equipment supply.
• Russian Military Adapts Vehicles with Anti-Drone Cages: Photos from "Два майора" show UAZ-452 "Bukhanka" vans and other utility trucks modified with improvised "cope cages" on the Zaporizhzhia front, suggesting adaptation to drone threats.
• Massive Ukrainian Drone Attack on Russian Territory, with Confirmed Strikes on Strategic Targets and Claims of Interception (Older Update, but confirms context): Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have shot down 127 Ukrainian drones overnight across multiple regions (Bryansk, Oryol, Kursk, Moscow region, Vladimir, Ryazan, Belgorod, Tula, Kaluga oblasts, and the Black Sea). This was followed by an additional claim of 32 more drones shot down over Oryol, Bryansk, and Kursk Oblasts between 04:00 and 08:00 Moscow time, bringing the total reported interceptions to 159 UAVs. Ukrainian sources reported the likely target of the attack in Oryol Oblast was the Bolkhov Semiconductor Devices Plant, a facility involved in the Russian military-industrial complex, specifically producing components for military vehicles, aircraft, and radar. Local authorities in Oryol Oblast officially confirmed the damage to the plant. This indicates a large-scale Ukrainian deep strike operation aimed at degrading Russian military production capabilities and creating domestic pressure.
• Intensified Russian Drone and Artillery Attacks on Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, Civilian Infrastructure Targeted (Older Update, but confirms context): Russian forces launched sustained drone attacks on Sumy using "Shahed" (Geranium) drones, hitting two enterprises and causing power outages and disrupting water supply due to damaged power lines. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, attacks using FPV drones and heavy artillery targeted Nikopol and Marhanets communities, as well as the Hrushivka community in Kryvorizky district, damaging infrastructure. These attacks signify a continued and concentrated Russian effort to degrade Ukrainian energy and water infrastructure, and to disrupt civilian life in critical areas. Civilian casualties were reported in Kyiv Oblast (Boryspil district) from UAV debris.
• Confirmed Russian Iskander Strike on Ukrainian Training Camp (Sumy Oblast), Calls for Commander's Dismissal (Older Update, but confirms context): Russian sources, corroborated by Ukrainian MPs and military bloggers, confirmed a Russian Iskander ballistic missile strike on a Ukrainian military training ground near Shostka, Sumy Oblast, less than 50 km from the Russian border. Russian claims stated up to 70 Ukrainian casualties, including 20 instructors, along with an ammunition warehouse and up to 10 vehicles destroyed. Ukrainian National Guard's official statements confirmed 6 servicemen killed and over 10 wounded. Ukrainian MPs in the Rada have called for the dismissal of the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces following this strike, attributing the casualties to "criminal negligence" and poor command decisions for positioning a large training facility so close to the front, highlighting OPSEC failures and the devastating impact of such precision strikes. A service investigation is underway, and the unit commander has been suspended.
• Russian Artillery and UAVs Disrupt Ukrainian Rotation in Donetsk Oblast (Older Update, but confirms context): Russian forces claimed their artillery and UAVs disrupted a rotation of Ukrainian units heading to Redkodub, Donetsk Oblast, inflicting approximately 30 casualties. This indicates continued Russian efforts to interdict Ukrainian troop movements and maintain pressure on critical axes.
• Updated Russian Loss Estimates and Intense Combat Engagements (Ukrainian General Staff) (Older Update, but confirms context): The Ukrainian General Staff reports estimated Russian losses for the past day: 980 personnel, 1 tank, 2 armored fighting vehicles, 23 artillery systems, 71 UAVs, 76 vehicles/fuel tanks, and 1 special equipment unit. They also report the destruction of a heavy flamethrower system. They reported 164 combat engagements over the past day, with particularly high intensity on the Pokrovsk (44 assaults stopped), Lyman (30 attacks), and Novopavlivsk (33 attacks) directions, indicating sustained Russian offensive pressure across multiple axes. Ukrainian defenders have successfully repelled these assaults.
• Russian Concerns Over Troop Concentrations/Logistics Vulnerability (Internal Advisory) (Older Update, but confirms context): Russian military bloggers, including Рыбарь, issued a warning to "fighters and volunteers" about the dangers of crowding near shops or during cargo transfers in areas vulnerable to long-range enemy weapons and drones. They stated that "people have died" due to such gatherings, emphasizing that the enemy will strike any concentration of personnel and equipment, regardless of civilian presence. This suggests recent successful Ukrainian targeting of Russian concentrations and highlights internal OPSEC concerns within Russian forces.
• Russian Claims of Successful Targeting of Ukrainian Armored Vehicles in Pokrovsk Direction (Older Update, but confirms context): Russian "🅾️tvazhnye" (Brave) forces of the "Center" group claimed to have destroyed pickups, "Kozak" armored vehicles, and Humvees of the Ukrainian 14th Operational Assignment Brigade "Chervona Kalyna" in the Pokrovsk direction. Despite the Ukrainian brigade being "seriously equipped with EW systems," all targets were reportedly hit, indicating Russian effectiveness in overcoming Ukrainian EW countermeasures in this instance.
• Ukrainian SBU Claims Destruction of Russian Radar and Warehouses on Black Sea Gas Production Platforms (Older Update, but confirms context): The Ukrainian SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) claims to have destroyed a Russian radar and warehouses on Black Sea gas production platforms using a combination of surface and aerial drones. If verified, this signifies Ukraine's continued capability to conduct innovative long-range strikes on Russian naval assets and critical offshore infrastructure.
• New Ukrainian Motorcycle Assault Company (Older Update, but confirms context): The 425th "Skala" Battalion of Ukraine has showcased training for its first motorcycle assault company. This indicates a new tactical adaptation by Ukrainian forces, leveraging high mobility and speed for rapid deployment, flanking maneuvers, and quick exfiltration in challenging terrains, enhancing tactical flexibility and potentially reducing logistical footprint.
• Russian Internal Issues: Belgorod Oblast Reconstruction and Re-targeting by Ukraine (Older Update, but confirms context): Russian volunteers are engaged in demining, humanitarian aid, and reconstruction efforts in Belgorod Oblast, which has been subject to frequent Ukrainian shelling and drone attacks. However, these areas are reportedly being re-targeted by Ukrainian forces after reconstruction. This highlights persistent Ukrainian cross-border attacks and the ongoing challenges to civilian life in Russian border regions.
• Russian DRG in Bryansk Borderland (Older Update, but confirms context): Russian military sources claim a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group (10-12 fighters) was detected and blocked in a forest in Trubchevsky and Vygonichsky districts of Bryansk borderland, attempting to retreat after failing their objectives. No large-scale breakthroughs reported.

Escalation in Diplomatic and Information Warfare

• Russia's Explicit Territorial Ambitions (Sumy): A Russian official publicly called for Russia to "take Sumy," arguing for the need to be "larger" and not live "like on a peninsula." Putin did not deny these goals, indicating direct territorial ambitions beyond currently occupied areas. A Russian official, Khinshtein (acting governor of Kursk Oblast), stated that Sumy is "not a foreign region" to him, as his grandfather was from there, reinforcing the narrative.
• "USSR Legally Still Exists" Narrative: A Russian presidential advisor asserted that the 1991 dissolution of the USSR was "legally flawed," implying the "Ukrainian crisis" is an "internal process" rather than an invasion. This provides a pseudo-legal justification for Russian aggression and denial of Ukrainian sovereignty.
• Trump's Stance on War and Western Unity:
  • Bloomberg (via TASS) reports that former US President Donald Trump has informed European leaders of his conviction that Russia is "winning" and has repeated "Kremlin's talking points" after a phone call with Putin. This poses a significant risk to Western unity and sustained support for Ukraine.
  • STERNENKO and Kotsnews report that the US is no longer insisting on a ceasefire in Ukraine, with Trump stating that "Russia and Ukraine must find their own solutions" and refusing to join new EU sanctions. This is presented as a blow to European leaders, leaving them without US support and forcing Europe to "significantly strengthen Ukraine, or fight alone."
  • US State Secretary (Reportedly Rubio) states that the US "can no longer solve all the world's problems" and must prioritize "national interests." This statement, echoed by Ukrainian and Russian sources, signifies a potential shift in US foreign policy away from global interventionism, raising concerns about sustained support for Ukraine.
  • Rubio, in a Senate hearing (RBC-Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС), repeatedly avoided directly calling Putin a "war criminal," stating that "we will not end the war without talking to Putin" and that accountability will come "at a certain time and place." This indicates a pragmatic diplomatic approach by the US to maintain channels for negotiation, even with adversaries, which could be perceived as a weakening of resolve against war crimes.
• Russian Rejection of Ceasefire Conditions: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated that Russia will not accept "truce-and-then-we'll-see" scenarios, accusing European leaders of "hysterically" demanding increased anti-Russian actions. This indicates Russia's hardened stance against conditional ceasefires. However, Peskov contradicts this by stating Russia is not delaying the peace process and is working on a ceasefire memorandum, highlighting conflicting messages from the Kremlin.
• "Museumification" of Destroyed Cities: Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed "DNR," stated that destroyed Ukrainian cities like Avdiivka might be "conserved" as "museums" to show the "tragic consequences of AFU attacks," a clear propaganda effort to control the narrative of destruction.
• Russian Accusations of Mercenary Recruitment: The head of the Russian Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, claimed Ukraine recruits mercenaries through its embassies abroad, identifying over 3,300 from 70+ countries and stating that infrastructure supporting such recruitment is a "legitimate target."
• CNN Reports Russian Orders to Execute Ukrainian POWs: RBC-Ukraine reports that CNN has published intercepted Russian radio communications ordering the killing of Ukrainian prisoners of war. The intercepts allegedly coincide with drone footage from November 2024 (presumably 2023, given current context) in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, showing the apparent execution of surrendering Ukrainian troops. One Ukrainian commander was reportedly spared while others were shot. Ukrainian prosecutors report a significant increase in documented cases of POW executions (8 in 2023, 39 in 2024, 20 in first four months of 2025). This is a severe allegation of war crimes.
• Zelenskyy-NATO Secretary General Call: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy discussed the current situation, joint next steps, and the need for pressure on Russia with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. They talked about formats for continuing negotiations with Russia on a ceasefire and coordinated sanctions.
• German Chancellor's Assessment: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that there are no signs the war in Ukraine will end soon.
• Russian Claims of US Justifying "Star Wars" Revival: Russian official Kartapolov claims US statements about Russian space weapons are an attempt to justify the revival of Reagan's "Star Wars" program. Rybar expands on this, stating that the US Space Force Commander's calls for more funding, citing competition with Russia and China, are a "standard move" to secure more financing, as US space capabilities are already strong and support NATO and Ukraine.
• Russian Propaganda Targeting Ukraine: "Два майора" promoting a new "fairy tale" publication called "Russian Kolobok and Green Drug Addict" (referring to Zelenskyy) demonstrates ongoing, crude, and dehumanizing propaganda efforts.
• Putin's Visit to Kursk Oblast (Older Update, but confirms context): Russian President Putin has reportedly visited Kursk Oblast, meeting with local volunteers and officials, and visiting the Kursk NPP-2 construction site. Russian sources frame this as the "first visit since the full liberation of the region," which is disputed by Ukrainian sources who state Russia does not fully control the region. Putin used the visit to reiterate that Russia is fighting "neo-Nazis" and stated that the destruction of WWII monuments by Ukrainian forces supports this claim. He also supported the extension of monthly payments to displaced residents, increased demining efforts, and the creation of a federal museum dedicated to the 2024-2025 events in Kursk. This visit serves as a strategic public relations effort to bolster domestic support and legitimize the conflict.
• Ukraine Addresses Personnel Issues and Promotions (Older Update, but confirms context): The Ukrainian General Staff is promoting a simplified procedure for military personnel who have voluntarily left their units (СЗЧ) to return to service, extended until August 30, 2025. This applies to first-time absentees and those who left before May 10, 2025, even with criminal cases, indicating a strategic effort to recover personnel and address disciplinary issues. The 199th Training Center of the Air Assault Forces of Ukraine celebrated its creation day, highlighting ongoing training and professionalism.
• Shift in Former US President Trump's Stance on Ukraine Conflict (Reported) (Older Update, but confirms context): Former US President Trump has reportedly adopted a "not my problem" stance regarding the war in Ukraine following a conversation with Russian President Putin. He stated that Russia and Ukraine should find a solution themselves and refused to join a European pressure campaign that would include new sanctions against Russia. This indicates a potential weakening of international economic pressure on Russia and a shift in US foreign policy, which could have significant implications for military aid and diplomatic efforts.
• Ukrainian SBU Claims Destruction of Russian Radar and Warehouses on Black Sea Gas Production Platforms (Older Update, but confirms context): The Ukrainian SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) claims to have destroyed a Russian radar and warehouses on Black Sea gas production platforms using a combination of surface and aerial drones. If verified, this signifies Ukraine's continued capability to conduct innovative long-range strikes on Russian naval assets and critical offshore infrastructure.
• Critique of Ukrainian Military Command (Older Update, but confirms context): A battalion commander from the 47th Brigade, Oleksandr Shyrshyn, has publicly submitted his resignation, citing "doomed to failure" tasks leading to "unjustified losses" on the Ukrainian-Russian border, ignored appeals to command, and a perceived culture of suppressing dissent. This highlights internal command failures and a breakdown in problem-solving mechanisms within the Ukrainian military.
• Ukraine's General Staff Reports on Kursk Activities (Older Update, but confirms context): The General Staff of Ukraine states that Russian claims of ending hostilities in Kursk Oblast are false, confirming ongoing Ukrainian defense operations in border areas of Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. They claim Russia has suffered significant losses in Kursk: 63,402 personnel, with 25,625 killed and 971 captured, and 5,664 units of equipment destroyed or damaged. This directly counters Russian narratives on the border situation.
• "Technical" Negotiations on Ceasefire May Continue in Vatican (Older Update, but confirms context): The President of Finland stated that "technical" negotiations on a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia may continue in the Vatican next week, and that the US has not given up its mediating role, and Europe is now also participating. This suggests continued diplomatic efforts despite the maximalist positions.
• Mykhailo Podolyak's Assessment of Russian Demands (Older Update, but confirms context): Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak, believes Russia's conditions for a ceasefire memorandum will be "unacceptable," including demands for Ukraine to abandon defensive alliances, external military aid, reduce its army, give up territories, and coordinate internal policy with Russia. He characterized these demands as Russia attempting to eliminate Ukraine's existence. This confirms Ukraine's view that current Russian demands are existential and not a basis for true peace.
• Former US President Trump's Call with Putin (Older Update, but confirms context): Bloomberg reports that Trump believes Russia is winning the conflict and repeated "Kremlin's talking points" to European leaders after his phone call with Putin. This reinforces concerns about a potential shift in US support. The call itself was noted by multiple sources, with initial speculation about its content and impact on negotiations.
• International Pressure/Sanctions (Older Update, but confirms context): The EU is reportedly working on a new package of sanctions targeting Russian banks and will propose to G7 to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $50 per barrel. This indicates continued, albeit possibly debated, economic pressure on Russia.

Domestic and International Developments

• Russian Mobile Internet Disruptions: Mobile internet access has been temporarily disabled in parts of Moscow Oblast and Tula Oblast, attributed by Tula Governor Dmitry Milyaev to "safety" measures against Ukrainian drone attacks. This confirms the expanding reach and impact of Ukrainian deep strike operations.
• Ukrainian POW/MIA Support: The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for POWs and Missing Persons held a meeting with families of servicemen, discussing obstacles to return and the unconditional return of sick/wounded.
• Chechen Leadership Succession: Adam Kadyrov, son of Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov, received his 26th award for contributions to Rosgvardia's OMON Akhmat-Krepost unit, including "active participation in the SVO," reinforcing his growing influence.
• Ukrainian Social Support for Military Personnel: The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers approved extended social support for basic service and conscript military personnel, and their families, including those in captivity, treatment, or missing.
• Russian Economic Projections and Status:
  • Russian "Politburo" (inner leadership circle) has agreed on a gradual "fall" of the ruble to 140 rubles per US dollar by year-end, with experts anticipating "catastrophic" inflation.
  • The Russian Central Bank lowered the dollar exchange rate for May 22 to 79.75 rubles, while raising the euro to 91.3 rubles. This reflects immediate currency fluctuations.
  • Басурин о главном reports that the Chinese credit rating agency CCXI has given Russia a sovereign credit rating of "BBB+" with a "stable" outlook, stating that the Russian economy is "gradually adapting to sanctions" and "demonstrates resilience to shocks." This is presented as a positive development, with the rating being higher than before the "special military operation." However, CCXI also notes risks related to demand-supply imbalance, personnel shortages, and inflation. The report also highlights that Moody's has downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 due to concerns over rising national debt, contrasting it with Russia's perceived stability.
• Russian Casualty Reporting: Bastrykin stated that since 2014, 5,649 civilians have died in Donbas due to Ukrainian aggression, with over 7,900 shelling incidents reported across 43 Russian regions.
• Ukrainian Recruitment Efforts: The 8th Detachment of the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service is actively recruiting, using slogans like "Look at the World Differently" and emphasizing an "OFFENSIVE" posture, despite Berdyansk being occupied.
• Russian Humanitarian Aid Appeals: Public fundraising campaigns are underway in Russia to collect aid for children in Donbas and the "SVO zone."
• Middle East Tensions: Israeli forces reportedly opened fire on a diplomatic delegation (including EU, UK, Canada, Russia, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco representatives) and journalists visiting a refugee camp in Jenin, West Bank.
• Civilian Casualties and Damage in Kharkiv Oblast: National Police of Ukraine reports one person killed and four injured in Russian attacks on Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. Fires in residential areas in Kupyansk and a destroyed entrance of a three-story residential building in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy from a guided aerial bomb. A man may be under the rubble. Images from the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office confirm extensive damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, particularly in Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Uzlovoy. Oleh Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast State Administration, reports a fallen unknown UAV near a residential building in Industrialniy district of Kharkiv city around 16:20. No casualties reported from this specific incident.
• Civilian Casualty in Chernihiv Oblast: Chernihiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office reports a 28-year-old local man was killed by a Russian UAV attack from Russian territory in Novgorod-Siverskyi district on May 21, 2025, at 11:30. An investigation has been launched into a war crime.
• Internal Russian Dissatisfaction: A video shows a pro-Kremlin Russian citizen expressing extreme anger and frustration over a sewage-flooded WWII veterans' cemetery in Samara, accusing local authorities of disrespect and neglect. This highlights domestic discontent over infrastructure issues.
• Russian Internal Suppression: Criminal cases for "financing extremist activities" have been opened against journalist Alexander Nevzorov and his wife. Their family was previously deemed an "extremist organization," and property was confiscated. This indicates a tightening of internal controls and suppression of dissent. A Russian book store "Podpisnye Izdaniya" in St. Petersburg was fined 800,000 rubles for "LGBT propaganda" based on classic literature, highlighting tightening social controls and internal suppression.
• Russian Municipal Modernization: Moscow reports opening a new electric depot and deploying new metro trains, aiming to replace all old trains by 2026. This showcases continued investment in civilian infrastructure, aiming to project normalcy.
• Lipetsk Election & AI Focus: Lipetsk's governor, Igor Artamonov, announced doubled funding for district improvements and training 150 young people on AI's role in organizing elections (e.g., ballot processing), highlighting the integration of AI into civic processes.
• Russian Diplomatic Engagement in Armenia: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov met with Armenian Foreign Minister Pashinyan in Yerevan, signaling continued Russian diplomatic activity and influence in the South Caucasus.
• Russian Fundraising for Artillery & Drones: A Russian "People's Front" campaign, led by military correspondent Alexander Kots, is fundraising for artillery units, specifically for drones, stating "drones have long been consumables, and they are always in short supply." The campaign acknowledges the conflict will be "long."
• Bitcoin Reaches New Record: RBC-Ukraine reports that Bitcoin has reached a new record of nearly $110,000, surpassing its peak during Trump's inauguration. This indicates a broader economic trend in cryptocurrency markets.
• Ukrainian Extradition of Former Official: RBC-Ukraine reports that a former head of Derzhheokadastr (StateGeoCadastre) in Kyiv Oblast, Lyudmyla Prykhodko, was extradited to Ukraine. She is accused of involvement in an organized group that seized over 1200 hectares of land near Kyiv, valued at over 1.8 billion hryvnias. This highlights ongoing efforts to combat corruption within Ukraine.
• Emotional Reunion of Russian Soldier: Mash na Donbasse shares a propaganda video showing a Russian marine's emotional reunion with his son at school in Donbas. The soldier, who participated in the May 9th parade in Moscow, is portrayed as a hero returning on leave, aiming to boost morale and humanize the conflict.
• Explosion Near Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast: Nikolaevskiy Vanek reports an explosion near Skadovsk (Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast), reportedly killing four Russian personnel and destroying a vehicle carrying ammunition. This indicates successful Ukrainian deep strikes in occupied territories.
• Italy to Include SAMP-T Air Defense System in Aid Package (Reported) (Older Update, but confirms context): Italy reportedly plans to include a SAMP-T air defense system in its new military aid package to Ukraine. This would be the third SAMP-T system provided by Italy, significantly enhancing Ukraine's capability to intercept ballistic missiles and other advanced aerial threats. This is a crucial upgrade to Ukrainian air defense capabilities.
• Ukraine's Financial Situation and Aid (Older Update, but confirms context): Ukraine is projected to have a state budget deficit of 1.6 trillion UAH in 2025, with defense expenditures consuming 57% of the budget. This highlights its significant reliance on external financial assistance, with the U.S. being a major contributor, providing over $66.5 billion in military aid and substantial grant funds. This emphasizes the critical need for continued international financial support to sustain the war effort.
• Russian Domestic Priorities (Older Update, but confirms context): Putin supported extending monthly payments to residents in Kursk Oblast who lost property during evacuation and called for increased demining efforts and federal funding for home repairs. He also supported the creation of a federal museum dedicated to the 2024-2025 events in Kursk. He also supported the creation of a special economic zone in Kursk Oblast. This highlights Russia's focus on domestic stability and propaganda in border regions, aiming to normalize the situation despite ongoing conflict.
• Ukraine's Economic Resilience and Infrastructure Adaptation (Older Update, but confirms context): Efforts are underway to create and expand shelters in kindergartens and schools in Ukraine, providing protective spaces for children, with a goal of accommodating 7,700 children by year-end. Facilities are also receiving generators, heating, and water purification systems to ensure functionality during potential blackouts, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining essential services amidst conflict. A video from Oleg Syniehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast State Administration, highlights the construction of underground schools and the implementation of barrier-free solutions in educational facilities and shelters in Kharkiv Oblast.
• UK's Naval Drone Fleet Development (Older Update, but confirms context): The UK plans to deploy a fleet of submarine drones ("Excalibur") to protect underwater cables from Russian threats, signaling a "pre-war state." These UUVs will be capable of reconnaissance, mine laying, and kamikaze missions, influencing future naval tactics and requiring Russia to consider new forms of maritime threats.
• Russia's Youth Militarization (Older Update, but confirms context): The "Zarnitsa 2.0" program in Russia is actively engaging over 75,000 schoolchildren and students in paramilitary training, including VR elements and drone operations, aiming to instill military discipline and patriotic values. This signifies a long-term strategy to cultivate a prepared and ideologically aligned youth for potential future military service.
• Russian Internal Intelligence Operations (Older Update, but confirms context): The FSB detained a Russian citizen in Kaluga Oblast for reportedly providing Ukrainian special services with data on Russian air defense facilities. The detained individual reportedly confessed. Another individual was detained in Odesa Oblast for similar activities, providing data on military, critical infrastructure, and industrial objects to the FSB via Telegram, and expressing willingness to join Russian forces.
• Russian Military Deficiencies and Fundraising (Older Update, but confirms context): A Russian military unit operating on the most dangerous frontiers has publicly appealed for essential equipment such as transport for ammunition and casualty evacuation, drones (due to high attrition from Ukrainian EW), portable EW systems, and optics. This highlights logistical deficiencies and reliance on crowdfunding to meet frontline needs. Russian military bloggers are also fundraising for Starlink stations for Russian paratroopers.
• Russian Internal Security Measures (Older Update, but confirms context): Moscow and Moscow Oblast will launch a pilot project from September 1, 2025, to implement total control over foreigners (excluding minors, diplomats, and Belarusians) by requiring them to install a special mobile application to track their geolocation and other personal data. If a migrant's location isn't tracked for more than three working days, or if they change region, leave Russia, or die, they are automatically deregistered. This highlights a strategic effort to enhance internal security and control over foreign citizens.
• Large-Scale Credit Holidays for Russian Military (New and Older Update): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports that over 532,200 Russian military personnel have received credit holidays since Autumn 2022, with a significant increase in 2024. This indicates a substantial economic impact of the war on Russian military personnel and their families, highlighting internal social welfare burdens and potentially motivating factors for service. The source suggests nearly "every first" person going to war is in debt.

Strategic Outlook

The conflict remains a brutal war of attrition, with both sides adapting their tactics and leveraging technology. Russia continues its efforts to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses through relentless ground assaults, particularly in Donetsk, and extensive aerial bombardment. The reported Russian advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the "Battle for Otradnoye" indicate renewed Russian offensive thrusts aimed at expanding territorial control and disrupting Ukrainian logistics. Ukraine, however, maintains tactical initiative with its precision FPV drone operations, inflicting significant material and personnel losses on Russian forces and extending the reach of its attacks deep into Russian territory, as evidenced by the numerous drone interceptions over Moscow and successful strikes in occupied Kherson Oblast. The reliance of some Russian "elite" units on crowdfunding for drones highlights potential internal logistical gaps, which Ukraine could exploit.

Diplomatic and information warfare are deeply integrated with military objectives. Russia's explicit territorial claims over Sumy and its narrative of Ukraine's illegitimate statehood (USSR's dissolution flawed) confirm Moscow's maximalist war aims, rendering any conditional ceasefire highly improbable. Conflicting statements from Lavrov and Peskov on negotiations add complexity and uncertainty. Former US President Trump's reported statements, if accurate, could critically undermine Western unity and sustained support for Ukraine, necessitating proactive Ukrainian diplomatic efforts to counter such narratives. The shift in US rhetoric towards prioritizing "national interests" and avoiding direct condemnation of Putin could be perceived as a weakening of resolve and a strategic opening for Russia. The reported intercepted Russian orders to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war is a critical development that demands immediate international legal action and could significantly impact the psychological dimension of the conflict, potentially affecting Ukrainian troops' willingness to surrender.

The resilience of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, including the strategic adaptation to build underground schools in frontline cities like Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, and sustained support for military personnel, are crucial for national cohesion. Conversely, internal Russian economic challenges, allegations of mercenary recruitment, propaganda efforts like the "museumification" of war-torn cities, and domestic discontent over neglected infrastructure reveal the societal strains and narrative control driving Moscow's war. The positive credit rating for Russia by a Chinese agency, while potentially beneficial for Moscow's image, may not fully capture the underlying economic pressures, particularly evidenced by the large number of Russian military personnel relying on credit holidays. The broader international context, including Russian diplomatic efforts in the South Caucasus and concerns about internal dissent, adds complexity to global security and resource allocation for Ukraine.

Recommendations

1. Enhance Counter-UAV Capabilities and Tactics:

   • Prioritize rapid deployment and integration of advanced Electronic Warfare (EW) systems to disrupt Russian FPV drone operations across all active fronts, particularly in Zaporizhzhia where new high-end Russian ISR drones are being deployed.
   • Increase production and distribution of low-cost, effective counter-UAV measures (e.g., FPV interceptors, anti-drone rifles) to frontline units.
   • Develop and disseminate adaptive tactics to counter Russian "motorcycle assaults," exploiting their vulnerabilities to maximize Russian casualties.
   • Improve intelligence gathering on Russian drone procurement and crowdfunding efforts to identify and disrupt their supply chains.

2. Strengthen Multi-layered Air Defense, especially in Border Regions and Deep Rear:

   • Accelerate acquisition and integration of more robust air defense systems to protect major cities and critical infrastructure from continuous Shahed drone and KAB attacks, specifically reinforcing defenses in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts against cross-border drone and guided bomb attacks, and improving protection for the Kyiv region against deep strikes.
   • Optimize coordination between ground-based and aerial air defense assets, including fighter intercepts, to improve interception rates.

3. Fortify Defensive Lines and Sustain Combat Operations:

   • Allocate additional engineering and defensive resources to critical areas under intense Russian pressure (e.g., Donetsk: Otradnoe, Bogatyr, Novopol, Seversk, Krasnoarmeysk; Kharkiv: Vovchansk, Dvorychne; Dnipropetrovsk: Novosergeevka, Novonikolaevka, Orekhovo) to consolidate defensive gains and mitigate further advances.
   • Ensure robust force protection measures against both manned and unmanned aerial threats for all forward-deployed personnel.
   • Prioritize resupply of FPV drones and other consumables to units like the 63rd Mechanized Brigade and the Border Guard Service's "Phoenix" brigade, given their demonstrated effectiveness in precision strikes on Russian logistics and high-value targets.

4. Proactive Information Warfare and Diplomatic Engagement:

   • Launch a comprehensive information campaign to counter Russian narratives on Ukrainian statehood, "internal processes," and the "illegitimacy" of the USSR's dissolution, emphasizing Ukraine's sovereignty, international law, and the human cost of Russian aggression.
   • Actively engage international partners and public opinion to expose and mitigate the impact of external narratives that align with Russian war aims (e.g., Trump's statements, US "national interest" rhetoric), emphasizing the critical need for sustained aid and unified condemnation. Proactively address any perceived shifts in US foreign policy.
   • Immediately launch a robust international campaign to highlight and pursue investigations into the reported Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war, ensuring accountability for war crimes. This should be accompanied by efforts to reassure Ukrainian troops regarding the value of surrender for Russian combatants.
   • Amplify documented successes of Ukrainian forces (e.g., FPV drone precision strikes, successful air intercepts, destruction of Russian logistics) and highlight Russian military limitations (e.g., reliance on crowdfunding for advanced equipment) to boost domestic morale and demonstrate operational effectiveness to international partners.
   • Disseminate information on Russian internal issues (e.g., neglected infrastructure, suppression of dissent, reliance on crowdfunding for military equipment, widespread military reliance on credit holidays) to underscore societal strains within Russia.

5. Prioritize Personnel Welfare and Strategic Mobilization:

   • Ensure swift and comprehensive implementation of new social support measures for military personnel and their families to maintain morale and address critical needs.
   • Continuously adapt and enhance recruitment efforts for all branches, including the Border Guard Service and Territorial Defense Forces, leveraging strong national identity and public support while ensuring ethical and lawful processes.
   • Strengthen internal oversight of recruitment to maintain public trust and prevent abuses.
   • Address and mitigate the impact of OPSEC failures, particularly concerning troop concentrations and training facilities, to prevent future large-scale casualties from precision strikes.

6. Humanitarian Response and Civilian Protection:

   • Prioritize resources for rapid humanitarian response to civilian areas affected by Russian attacks, particularly in Kupyansk, Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, Chernihiv Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopolshchyna).
   • Continue and expand initiatives like the construction of underground schools and barrier-free infrastructure to protect civilian life and maintain educational continuity in frontline cities like Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv.
   • Increase efforts to expose and document all instances of collateral damage to civilian infrastructure and casualties, using this information for both international legal processes and information warfare.