Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 20, 2025, 18:54 UTC)
Major Updates from Recent Messages
Intensified Fighting near Chasiv Yar: Russian sources report continued heavy fighting in the Chasiv Yar area, specifically for the Zavodskoy microdistrict. Russian troops claim "practically full control" over the main buildings but acknowledge remaining pockets of Ukrainian resistance, particularly in the central part. Ukrainian forces are reported to be transferring infantry south of the Dnipro pond, utilizing dense foliage for cover. Russian forces are reportedly accumulating forces for an assault on the Shevchenko and Levanevsky microdistricts. The intensity of fighting is highlighted by the extensive use of FPV and "Baba Yaga" hexacopters by Ukrainian forces against Russian rear areas day and night to prevent the "full loss" of Chasiv Yar. (Source: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Russian Ministry of Defence Combat Report (May 20): The Russian MoD released a summary of combat operations for May 20, 2025, claiming:
Significant losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces across multiple groupings ("Sever," "Zapad," "Yuzhnaya," "Tsentr," "Vostok," "Dniepr") operating in Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts.
Claimed improvements in tactical positions by the "Zapad" and "Yuzhnaya" groupings and continued advancement by the "Vostok" grouping.
Destruction of Ukrainian military personnel, tanks, armored vehicles, vehicles, artillery pieces (including Western-made), EW systems, and ammunition depots across various directions.
Strikes by operational-tactical aviation, strike UAVs, missile forces, and artillery on military infrastructure, a drone production facility, ammunition and fuel depots, and temporary deployment points of Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries in 147 areas. (Source: Colonelcassad)
Alleged Russian Missile Strike on Training Camp in Sumy Oblast: Russian sources claim an "Iskander" Operational-Tactical Missile System (OTRK) strike on a Ukrainian training camp of the 1st Special Forces Brigade near Shostka, Sumy Oblast. They claim up to 70 Ukrainian servicemen, including 20 instructors, an ammunition depot, and 10 vehicles were destroyed. This is supported by a video showing an aerial view of a facility, identified as the training camp, followed by a large explosion. (Sources: MoD Russia, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, НгП раZVедка)
Allegations of Large-Scale Corruption in Fortification Construction: A Russian source is amplifying claims from alleged Ukrainian journalistic investigations about widespread corruption related to the construction of fortifications in Ukraine. The claims allege that a significant portion of allocated funds (hundreds of millions of Hryvnias) was misappropriated through fictitious companies and individuals allegedly close to the Ukrainian leadership. (Source: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
US Stance on G20 Forums: The US confirmed it will not participate in upcoming G20 forums in South Africa at the head of state or foreign minister level. This decision reportedly reflects disagreements with South Africa and their approach to the G20 agenda. (Source: ТАСС)
Veteran Support and Rehabilitation in Ukraine: President Zelenskyy participated in a forum on "Innovation and Development in Sport under War Conditions" and visited a rehabilitation center. He highlighted the importance of veteran rehabilitation, adaptation, and reintegration through sport as a state priority. (Source: Zelenskiy / Official)
Challenges in Muddy Terrain: A video shows military vehicles, including a BMP, struggling with extremely muddy, off-road conditions, with a civilian Porsche Cayenne seen assisting another vehicle. This highlights mobility challenges in certain terrain conditions. (Source: БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
US Waiting for Russian Ceasefire Conditions: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US is waiting for Russia to prepare conditions for a ceasefire to better understand President Putin's calculations for broader negotiations. (Source: РБК-Україна)
Widespread Russian Aerial Activity Visualized: An animated map shows extensive Russian drone (Geran/Gerbera) and guided glide bomb (UMPK) strikes extending deep into Ukrainian territory overnight (19-20 May), targeting various regions including Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, as well as front-line and border areas. (Source: Colonelcassad)
Internal Russian Military Appointment: A veteran of the "Special Military Operation," Vladimir Anisimov, awarded with the Order of Courage and Medal of Zhukov, has been appointed as Deputy Head of the Administration in Nizhny Novgorod, overseeing patriotic education, youth policy, and support for veterans and their families. This is presented as leveraging combat experience for civilian service and strengthening the connection between the front and the rear. (Source: Рыбарь)
Internal Russian Legal Action: A criminal case for defamation has been initiated against the editorial office of the "Bars" TV channel and its editor-in-chief in Ivanovo, Russia, regarding an article critical of a Telegram channel allegedly run by law enforcement and its attitude towards relatives of missing servicemen. (Source: ASTRA)
Claimed Russian Strike on Ukrainian Logistics (Kherson): Russian source "Два майора" claims that in early May, Russian forces discovered and destroyed a hangar used by Ukrainian forces to hide equipment "at a significant distance from the bank of the Dnipro river" in the Kherson direction using aerial bombs. (Source: Два майора)
Ukrainian Criticism of Personnel Concentration: A Ukrainian source criticized the concentration of Ukrainian personnel in a frontline area in Sumy Oblast, less than 50 km from the Russian border, despite regular enemy reconnaissance UAV activity, highlighting a potential vulnerability. (Source: STERNENKO)
Air Raid Alert in Lipetsk Oblast, Russia: An air raid danger regime has been introduced in Lipetsk Oblast. (Source: Игорь Артамонов)
Urgent Russian Fundraising for Kursk Front: Russian military bloggers are conducting an urgent fundraising campaign for fighters on the Kursk front near Tetkino, requesting drones, thermal imagers, drone detectors, and radios due to "enemy activation." They report collecting over 4 million rubles in 8 days towards a goal of 8.5 million rubles. (Source: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Russian Information Operation on Ukraine's Sovereignty: Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, stated that Ukraine is not a sovereign state, citing its reliance on foreign aid and claiming its leadership is illegitimate. (Source: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Tactical Aviation Activity on Northeastern Direction: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, with a threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. (Source: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Russian Su-24 Bombing in Africa Showcased: Russian sources are showcasing videos of Russian Su-24 front-line bombers from the "African Corps" conducting bombing strikes on alleged terrorist camps in Africa. (Source: Два майора)
Russian Artillery Work near Aleksandro-Kalinovskoye Direction Showcased: Russian military bloggers share a video allegedly showing artillery from the 20th Motorized Rifle Regiment working near the Aleksandro-Kalinovskoye direction, highlighting coordinated work with reconnaissance drones for real-time fire correction. (Source: Kotsnews)
Ukrainian Drone Operators Targeting Shelters with Bombs: Ukrainian drone operators from the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade are shown in a video dropping bombs ("ТМ-ками") on alleged Russian dugouts and basements. The video includes an indicator of bad GPS signal. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ)
Ukraine Losing "Trade Visa-Free" with EU from June 5: The Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, stated that the mechanism allowing "trade visa-free" status for Ukraine with the EU will end on June 5, with a return to pre-war border rules. He stated this is to protect Polish producers, particularly farmers. (Source: РБК-Україна)
UK, France, Canada Threaten Sanctions on Israel: The UK, France, and Canada have issued a joint statement threatening "concrete measures," including targeted sanctions, against Israel if it does not immediately cease military operations in Gaza and restore humanitarian aid. (Source: ASTRA)
Russian KAB Launches on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts: The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. (Sources: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Sheremetyevo Airport Denies Increased Control Time: Sheremetyevo airport in Russia denied information about increased pre-flight control time, which was reported by some Telegram channels. (Source: ТАСС)
Domestic Incident in Moscow Region: A moose injured in a traffic accident in the Istra district of the Moscow region died after surgery. (Source: Новости Москвы)
Reports of Russian Casualties Transported to Chernihiv Oblast: Russian sources claim that after the alleged Iskander strike on the training camp in Shostka, Sumy Oblast, Russian casualties (killed and wounded) are being transported in columns to Novgorod-Siverskyi in Chernihiv Oblast. They also question if the survivors should be "finished off." (Source: НгП раZVедка)
Updated Situation
The operational environment remains highly dynamic, marked by intense ground combat in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Chasiv Yar and in the Donetsk Oblast, where reported Russian advances and heavy fighting persist, with Russian forces claiming control of most of the Zavodskoy microdistrict and preparing for assaults on further districts. The Sumy Oblast and border regions also remain active, with reports of claimed Russian strikes on a training camp near Shostka and Ukrainian concerns about troop concentrations near the border. A notable and persistent pattern is the widespread Russian aerial campaign utilizing strike drones (Geran/Gerbera) and guided aerial bombs (KABs/UMPKs), impacting both frontline areas and deep rear regions, as evidenced by the animated strike map and reports of KAB launches on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Ukraine is actively countering these threats with air defense and EW, neutralizing a significant number of drones.
Recent updates highlight:
Continued intense ground combat in eastern Ukraine, with focus on the Chasiv Yar direction and claims of Russian advances and heavy fighting for the Zavodskoy microdistrict. Russian MoD claims significant losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces and tactical improvements across multiple axes in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. Ukrainian forces are reported to be employing drones extensively in tactical engagements near Chasiv Yar. Russian sources are showcasing artillery work coordinated with reconnaissance drones near the Aleksandro-Kalinovskoye direction.
Sustained and widespread Russian aerial offensive including drone and guided bomb strikes across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, with an animated map illustrating the broad geographic reach and types of munitions used overnight. Russia also claims destruction of Ukrainian military infrastructure, a drone production facility, and specifically a training camp near Shostka, Sumy Oblast, with an Iskander missile strike. Ukraine reports KAB launches on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts and activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeastern direction. Ukraine is actively neutralizing Russian drones.
Challenges posed by terrain conditions, with reports and visuals showing extreme mud impacting military vehicle mobility in certain areas.
Continued diplomatic maneuvering with Ukraine actively engaging international partners on sanctions and seeking reliable peace. Discussions around potential peace negotiations persist, with the US indicating they are waiting for Russia's proposed conditions. Russia is actively promoting its narrative on Ukraine's lack of sovereignty.
Information operations and narratives from both sides, including Russian claims of military successes, alleged Ukrainian corruption, and Russian attempts to shape narratives around negotiations and European politics. Ukrainian sources are criticizing tactical decisions and showcasing battlefield realities (like terrain challenges) and drone operations. Russia is showcasing its military activities, including claimed strikes and operations in Africa.
Internal developments in both countries, including military appointments and legal proceedings in Russia, and discussions around veteran support and rehabilitation in Ukraine. Reports of alleged Russian casualties being transported to Chernihiv Oblast after a strike in Sumy Oblast are circulating. Urgent Russian fundraising for military equipment on the Kursk front highlights ongoing activity and needs in that area.
International relations and tensions, including the US decision regarding G20 participation and a joint statement from UK, France, and Canada threatening sanctions on Israel. Poland's announcement regarding the end of the "trade visa-free" mechanism with Ukraine highlights economic challenges.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Zavodskoy, Shevchenko, Levanevsky, Markovo, Predtecheno, Minkovka, Grigorievka, Koptevo, Razino, Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk, Grodovka, Petrovskogo, Novaya Poltavka, Novo-Ukrainka, Bogatyr, Aleksandro-Kalinovskoye direction): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat, particularly around Chasiv Yar and the Zavodskoy microdistrict, with Russian claims of significant control and preparation for further assaults. Russian MoD claims significant losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces and tactical improvements across various sectors within the oblast. Russian sources are showcasing artillery work coordinated with reconnaissance drones near the Aleksandro-Kalinovskoye direction. Ukrainian forces are reported to be employing drones extensively in tactical engagements near Chasiv Yar. Affected by the overnight Russian aerial assault with 108 UAVs.
Sumy Oblast (Bunyakino, Ryzhevka, Atinskoe, Belopolye, Bessalovka, Velykopysarivska community, near Kursk Oblast border, Shostka): Affected by Russian military activity, including claimed engagements near the border and Russian strikes on infrastructure. A Russian claim of an Iskander strike on a Ukrainian training camp near Shostka is reported, with alleged significant casualties. Ukrainian sources highlight concerns about troop concentrations in frontline areas and report KAB launches on the oblast. Affected by the overnight Russian aerial assault with 108 UAVs. Reports of alleged Russian casualties being transported to Chernihiv Oblast from Sumy Oblast are circulating.
Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk, Sobolevka, northeastern direction): Mentioned in the Russian MoD report with claims of tactical improvements and losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces by the "Zapad" grouping. Affected by Russian tactical aviation activity on the northeastern direction with a threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB launches on the oblast.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Gulyaypole, Chervonoe, Novoandreevka): Mentioned in the Russian MoD report with claims of continued Russian advancement and losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces by the "Vostok" and "Dniepr" groupings.
Kherson Oblast (Otradokamenka, near Dnipro River bank): Mentioned in the Russian MoD report with claims of losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces by the "Dniepr" grouping. A Russian source claims the destruction of a Ukrainian equipment hangar near the Dnipro River.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (near Sumy Oblast border, Tetkino): Location of claimed Russian engagements against Ukrainian units attempting to move towards the border. Urgent Russian fundraising for military equipment on the Kursk front near Tetkino highlights ongoing activity and needs in this area.
Chernihiv Oblast (Novgorod-Siverskyi): Reports of alleged Russian casualties being transported to Novgorod-Siverskyi from Sumy Oblast are circulating. Affected by the overnight Russian aerial assault with 108 UAVs.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Affected by the overnight Russian aerial assault with 108 UAVs.
Zhytomyr Oblast: Affected by the overnight Russian aerial assault with 108 UAVs.
Poltava Oblast: Affected by the overnight Russian aerial assault with 108 UAVs.
Kyiv Oblast: Affected by the overnight Russian aerial assault with 108 UAVs.
Russia (Nizhny Novgorod, Ivanovo, Moscow, Lipetsk Oblast, Sheremetyevo airport): Location of internal developments including military appointments (Nizhny Novgorod), legal proceedings (Ivanovo, Moscow), air raid alert (Lipetsk Oblast), and reports on airport operations (Sheremetyevo). Domestic incident (moose hit by car) reported in Moscow region.
Ukraine (Multiple Oblasts): Affected by widespread Russian drone and missile strikes. Locations of events related to veteran support and rehabilitation and alleged corruption in fortification construction.
United States: Involved in ongoing discussions regarding sanctions and potential peace negotiations. US Secretary of State Rubio made statements regarding understanding Russia's conditions for a ceasefire. US confirmed non-participation in upcoming G20 forums in South Africa.
European Union: Implementing new sanctions packages against Russia. Involved in diplomatic discussions regarding the conflict. Poland announced the end of the "trade visa-free" mechanism with Ukraine.
United Kingdom: Implemented a new sanctions decision against Russia. Issued a joint statement threatening sanctions on Israel.
South Africa: Location of upcoming G20 forums which the US will not attend.
Israel: Issued a joint statement threatening sanctions by UK, France, and Canada if military operations in Gaza are not ceased and humanitarian aid restored.
France: Issued a joint statement threatening sanctions on Israel.
Canada: Issued a joint statement threatening sanctions on Israel.
Poland: Prime Minister announced the end of the "trade visa-free" mechanism with Ukraine.
Africa: Location where Russian Su-24 bombers from the "African Corps" are reportedly conducting bombing strikes on alleged terrorist camps.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Remains extremely high and widespread, utilized by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and strike purposes across multiple fronts and deep rear areas. A massive overnight Russian drone attack involved 108 UAVs, with 93 neutralized. Russian sources claim destruction of numerous Ukrainian UAVs and a drone production facility. Ukrainian forces are reported to be extensively using FPV and hexacopters near Chasiv Yar and are also conducting drone operations, including dropping bombs on Russian shelters. Russian sources claim the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones and the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones. Urgent Russian fundraising for drones on the Kursk front highlights the importance of these assets.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs/UMPKs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces, primarily targeting frontline and border areas. An animated map visualizes widespread Russian UMPK strikes overnight. Ukrainian Air Force reports KAB launches on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is active on the northeastern direction with a threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts.
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation remains active, delivering guided aerial bombs, particularly on the northeastern direction. Russian sources are showcasing videos of Russian Su-24 front-line bombers from the "African Corps" conducting bombing strikes in Africa.
Missile Activity: Russia claims destruction of Ukrainian missile assets. The Russian MoD claims an Iskander missile strike on a Ukrainian training camp near Shostka, Sumy Oblast.
Naval Activity: A Russian source reported on internal Russian Navy activities (Baltic Fleet anniversary). Ukraine is receiving unmanned maritime vessels from Belgium. No significant new naval engagements were reported in the latest messages. Russian sources are showcasing operations of the "African Corps," which may involve naval support elements.
Electronic Warfare (EW): Russia claims the destruction of a Ukrainian EW system. 58 Russian UAVs were reportedly locationally lost or suppressed by EW overnight. Ukrainian drone operators are encountering GPS jamming.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Sanctions: Ukraine is actively pushing for further and broader sanctions against Russia, with recent EU and UK packages implemented and ongoing discussions with the US.
Negotiations and Peace Talks: Discussions continue regarding potential peace negotiations, with Ukraine expressing readiness for direct talks and the US waiting to understand Russia's proposed ceasefire conditions. Diplomatic efforts by Ukrainian leadership with international partners continue. Russia is actively promoting its narrative on Ukraine's lack of sovereignty, which impacts the framework for any potential negotiations.
International Support for Ukraine: Diplomatic engagement with European partners continues, including discussions on military production investment in Ukraine. Belgium has provided a new military aid package including unmanned maritime vessels and anti-aircraft systems. Poland announced the end of the "trade visa-free" mechanism with Ukraine, highlighting economic challenges.
Russia-United States Relations: Discussions around the potential impact of sanctions on dialogue and the US approach to understanding Russia's conditions for a ceasefire continue. The US will not participate in upcoming G20 forums in South Africa.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Focus on veteran support, rehabilitation, and adaptation through sport is a state priority. Allegations of corruption related to fortification construction are circulating. A Ukrainian source is criticizing tactical decisions regarding troop concentrations.
Internal Russian Politics and Society: Military veterans are being appointed to administrative positions. Legal action against journalists is reported. Domestic incidents and air raid alerts are occurring in Russia. Urgent fundraising for military equipment on the Kursk front highlights ongoing activity and needs in that area.
US Stance on G20 Forums: US confirmed non-participation in upcoming G20 forums in South Africa due to disagreements.
International Relations and Tensions: A joint statement from UK, France, and Canada threatens sanctions on Israel, highlighting broader international tensions and diplomatic activity.
Russian Information Operations: Russia is actively disseminating narratives regarding Ukraine's lack of sovereignty and showcasing its military activities, including claimed strikes and operations in Africa.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
