Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 20, 2025, 18:24 UTC)
Major Updates from Recent Messages
Sanctions Developments: President Zelenskyy announced the implementation of a new 17th European Union sanctions package against Russia and a separate sanctions decision by the United Kingdom. He also stated ongoing efforts with the United States regarding sanctions. Ukraine advocates for targeting Russian oil, the tanker fleet, energy infrastructure, banks, financial schemes, and the military industry to increase pressure on Russia.
Diplomatic Readiness: President Zelenskyy reiterated Ukraine's readiness for "direct negotiations" with Russia in "any format that yields results." He also mentioned recent conversations with European leaders and a conversation with "U.S. President Trump" (as per subtitles, noted as a potential mistranslation or reference to a non-official capacity) to coordinate diplomatic efforts and build joint positions.
Military Production Investment: Ukraine is seeking and receiving investment from partners for domestic weapon production, specifically mentioning drone production, to enhance Ukraine's strength and contribute to shared security.
Russian Offensive near Chasiv Yar: Reporting from Russian sources indicates continued heavy fighting in the Chasiv Yar area, specifically for the Zavodskoy microdistrict. Russian troops are claimed to have "liberated" most of Zavodskoy but face resistance in the central part. Ukrainian forces are reported to be transferring infantry south of the Dnipro pond, and extensively using FPV and "Baba Yaga" hexacopters against Russian rear areas day and night. Russian forces are reportedly accumulating forces for an assault on the Shevchenko and Levanevsky microdistricts.
Russian MoD Combat Report: The Russian Ministry of Defence released a summary of combat operations for May 20, 2025, claiming:
Significant losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces across multiple groupings ("Sever," "Zapad," "Yuzhnaya," "Tsentr," "Vostok," "Dniepr").
Claimed improvements in tactical positions by the "Zapad" and "Yuzhnaya" groupings and continued advancement by the "Vostok" grouping.
Destruction of Ukrainian military personnel, tanks, armored vehicles, vehicles, artillery pieces (including Western-made), EW systems, and ammunition depots across various directions (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson Oblasts).
Strikes by operational-tactical aviation, strike UAVs, missile forces, and artillery on military infrastructure, a drone production facility, ammunition and fuel depots, and temporary deployment points of Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries in 147 areas.
Russian Internal Military Appointment: A veteran of the "Special Military Operation," Vladimir Anisimov, awarded with the Order of Courage and Medal of Zhukov, has been appointed as Deputy Head of the Administration in Nizhny Novgorod, overseeing patriotic education, youth policy, and support for veterans and their families. This is presented as leveraging combat experience for civilian service and strengthening the connection between the front and the rear.
Russia-US Dialogue on Peace Terms: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US is waiting for Russia to prepare conditions for a ceasefire to better understand President Putin's calculations for broader negotiations.
Military Rehabilitation and Sport: President Zelenskyy participated in a forum on "Innovation and Development in Sport under War Conditions" and visited a rehabilitation center, highlighting the importance of veteran rehabilitation, adaptation, and reintegration through sport as a state priority.
Claimed Russian Strike on Ukrainian Logistics (Kherson): Russian source "Два майора" claims that in early May, Russian forces discovered and destroyed a hangar used by Ukrainian forces to hide equipment "at a significant distance from the bank of the Dnipro river" in the Kherson direction using aerial bombs.
Internal Russian Legal Action: A criminal case for defamation has been initiated against the editorial office of the "Bars" TV channel and its editor-in-chief in Ivanovo, Russia, regarding an article critical of a Telegram channel allegedly run by law enforcement and its attitude towards relatives of missing servicemen.
Widespread Russian Drone Activity (Overnight 19-20 May): An animated map shows Russian drone (Geran/Gerbera) and guided glide bomb (UMPK) strikes extending deep into Ukrainian territory overnight (19-20 May), targeting various regions including Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, as well as front-line and border areas.
Corruption Allegations (Ukraine): A Russian source ("Операция Z") is amplifying claims from alleged Ukrainian journalistic investigations about widespread corruption related to the construction of fortifications, involving potentially fictitious companies and individuals close to the Ukrainian leadership, with hundreds of millions of Hryvnias allegedly misappropriated.
US Non-Participation in G20 Forums: US Secretary of State Rubio confirmed that the US will not participate in upcoming G20 forums in South Africa at the head of state or foreign minister level, citing disagreements with South Africa and their approach to the G20 agenda.
Muddy Terrain Challenges: A video shows military vehicles, including a BMP, struggling with extremely muddy, off-road conditions, with a civilian Porsche Cayenne seen assisting another vehicle. This highlights mobility challenges in certain terrain.
Ukrainian Criticism of Personnel Concentration: A Ukrainian source ("STERNENKO") criticized the concentration of Ukrainian personnel in a frontline area in Sumy Oblast, less than 50 km from the Russian border, despite regular enemy reconnaissance UAV activity, highlighting a potential vulnerability.
Updated Situation
The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Chasiv Yar and in the Donetsk Oblast, with reported Russian advances and continued heavy fighting for key areas. The Sumy Oblast and border regions also remain active, with reports of claimed Russian engagements and Ukrainian concerns about troop concentrations. A notable pattern is the persistent and widespread Russian aerial campaign utilizing strike drones (Geran/Gerbera) and guided aerial bombs (KABs/UMPKs), impacting both frontline areas and deep rear regions, as evidenced by the animated strike map.
Recent updates highlight:
Continued intense ground combat in eastern Ukraine, with focus on the Chasiv Yar direction and claims of Russian advances and heavy fighting for the Zavodskoy microdistrict. Russian MoD claims significant losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces and tactical improvements across multiple axes in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. Ukrainian forces are reported to be employing drones extensively in tactical engagements.
Sustained and widespread Russian aerial offensive including drone and guided bomb strikes across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, with an animated map illustrating the broad geographic reach and types of munitions used overnight. Russia also claims destruction of Ukrainian military infrastructure and a drone production facility through these strikes.
Challenges posed by terrain conditions, with reports and visuals showing extreme mud impacting military vehicle mobility in certain areas.
Ukrainian adaptation and innovation in military production, with efforts to secure foreign investment in domestic weapon and drone production.
Continued diplomatic maneuvering with Ukraine actively engaging international partners to maintain support and push for further sanctions against Russia. Discussions around potential peace negotiations persist, with the US indicating they are waiting for Russia's proposed conditions.
Information operations and narratives from both sides, including Russian claims of military successes and Ukrainian corruption, and Ukrainian criticism of tactical decisions and showcasing battlefield realities (like terrain challenges).
Internal developments in both countries, including military appointments and legal proceedings in Russia, and discussions around veteran support and rehabilitation in Ukraine.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Zavodskoy, Shevchenko, Levanevsky, Markovo, Predtecheno, Minkovka, Grigorievka, Koptevo, Razino, Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk, Grodovka, Petrovskogo, Novaya Poltavka, Novo-Ukrainka, Bogatyr): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat, particularly around Chasiv Yar and the Zavodskoy microdistrict. Russian sources claim advances in multiple areas and significant losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces across various sectors within the oblast.
Sumy Oblast (Bunyakino, Ryzhevka, Atinskoe, Belopolye, Bessalovka, Velykopysarivska community, near Kursk Oblast border): Affected by Russian military activity, including claimed engagements near the border and Russian strikes on infrastructure. Ukrainian sources highlight concerns about troop concentrations in frontline areas.
Kharkiv Oblast (Kupyansk, Sobolevka): Mentioned in the Russian MoD report with claims of tactical improvements and losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces by the "Zapad" grouping.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Gulyaypole, Chervonoe, Novoandreevka): Mentioned in the Russian MoD report with claims of continued Russian advancement and losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces by the "Vostok" and "Dniepr" groupings.
Kherson Oblast (Otradokamenka, near Dnipro River bank): Mentioned in the Russian MoD report with claims of losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces by the "Dniepr" grouping. A Russian source claims the destruction of a Ukrainian equipment hangar near the Dnipro River.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (near Sumy Oblast border): Location of claimed Russian engagements against Ukrainian units attempting to move towards the border.
Russia (Nizhny Novgorod, Ivanovo, Moscow): Location of internal developments including military appointments (Nizhny Novgorod), legal proceedings (Ivanovo, Moscow), and reporting on domestic issues.
Ukraine (Multiple Oblasts - including Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr): Affected by widespread Russian drone and missile strikes. Locations of events related to veteran support and rehabilitation.
United States: Involved in ongoing discussions regarding sanctions and potential peace negotiations. US Secretary of State Rubio made statements regarding understanding Russia's conditions for a ceasefire and US non-participation in upcoming G20 forums in South Africa.
European Union: Implementing new sanctions packages against Russia. Involved in diplomatic discussions regarding the conflict.
United Kingdom: Implemented a new sanctions decision against Russia.
South Africa: Location of upcoming G20 forums which the US will not attend.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Remains extremely high and widespread, utilized by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and strike purposes across multiple fronts and deep rear areas. Russian sources claim destruction of numerous Ukrainian UAVs and a drone production facility. Ukrainian forces are reported to be extensively using FPV and hexacopters near Chasiv Yar. An animated map visualizes widespread Russian drone strikes overnight.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs/UMPKs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces, primarily targeting frontline and border areas. An animated map visualizes widespread Russian UMPK strikes overnight.
Missile Activity: Russia claims destruction of Ukrainian missile assets. An animated map visualizes Russian missile strikes overnight.
Naval Activity: A Russian source reported on internal Russian Navy activities (Baltic Fleet anniversary). Ukraine is receiving unmanned maritime vessels from Belgium. No significant new naval engagements were reported in the latest messages.
Electronic Warfare (EW): Russia claims the destruction of a Ukrainian EW system.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Sanctions: Ukraine is actively pushing for further and broader sanctions against Russia, with recent EU and UK packages implemented and ongoing discussions with the US.
Negotiations and Peace Talks: Discussions continue regarding potential peace negotiations, with Ukraine expressing readiness for direct talks and the US waiting to understand Russia's proposed ceasefire conditions. Diplomatic efforts by Ukrainian leadership with international partners continue.
International Support for Ukraine: Diplomatic engagement with European partners continues, including discussions on military production investment in Ukraine. Belgium has provided a new military aid package including unmanned maritime vessels and anti-aircraft systems.
Russia-United States Relations: Discussions around the potential impact of sanctions on dialogue and the US approach to understanding Russia's conditions for a ceasefire continue. The US will not participate in upcoming G20 forums in South Africa.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Focus on veteran support, rehabilitation, and adaptation through sport is a state priority. Allegations of corruption related to fortification construction are circulating.
Internal Russian Politics and Society: Military veterans are being appointed to administrative positions. Legal action against journalists is reported.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
