Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 20, 2025, 17:54 UTC)
Major Updates from Recent Messages
Rybar on Zelenskyy's Legitimacy: Rybar claims that today marks one year since the expiration of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's presidential term and analyzes the changing attitudes of Western politicians towards him, suggesting a decline from outright support to open criticism, particularly from potential future US leaders like Trump, Vance, and Rubio, and some Eastern European leaders like Orbán and Fico. Rybar anticipates that Western politicians who currently interact with Zelenskyy may eventually call for elections or his departure.
US Secretary of State Rubio on Sanctions and Negotiations: РБК-Україна and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report on US Secretary of State Rubio's statement indicating that the threat of new US sanctions could cause Russia to withdraw from peace negotiations on Ukraine. Rubio emphasizes the US desire to maintain dialogue with Russia to encourage a return to the negotiating table, contrasting this approach with increasing pressure through sanctions or weapon supplies.
Accusation in Poland Related to Zelenskyy Assassination Plot: РБК-Україна reports that a man has been charged in Poland with potentially being involved in preparing an assassination attempt on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The suspect, identified as Pavel K., was detained in April 2024 based on cooperation between Polish and Ukrainian prosecutors. He is accused of offering to act in the interests of Russian military intelligence by gathering information on security at Rzeszów-Jasionka airport, a frequent arrival point for Zelenskyy in Poland. He faces up to eight years in prison.
Claimed Russian Advance North of Chasiv Yar: Colonelcassad claims a small advance by Russian forces north of Chasiv Yar, stating that units of the Russian Armed Forces have occupied new positions on the western bank of the Siverskyi Donets – Donbas canal.
Arrest of "Rusagro" Founder: ТАСС reports that the court has extended the arrest of Vadim Moshkovich, founder of "Rusagro," accused of large-scale fraud, for three months. The former general director of "Rusagro," Maxim Basov, also had his arrest extended for the same period.
Ukrainian Needs for "Rusorez": STERNENKO highlights a continued deficit of "rusorez," a term often used for equipment or capabilities effective against Russian forces.
Ukrainian Assault Company Training: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video showcasing soldiers of the Ukrainian 425th Separate Assault Battalion "Skala" undergoing intensive training as the first motorcycle assault company. The training, lasting 12-14 hours daily, includes riding, shooting, working in pairs, and clearing objectives, equipping them with AKS-74U rifles.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video from the "Bambino 2015" unit of the 423rd Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems "Scythian Griffins," claiming precise drone drops that eliminated enemy personnel.
Russian Drone Operations Showcase: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video featuring claimed work of Russian UAV crews targeting enemy equipment, including a civilian SUV, a potentially damaged larger vehicle (truck or APC), and personnel. The footage includes thermal and daylight views and highlights successful strikes.
Russian Perspective on Trump-Putin Call: Стрелков Игорь Иванович comments on the phone conversation between Putin and Trump, stating that while negotiations are likely, they will not yield any results. He believes both leaders need to maintain a public image of pursuing peace while the conflict on the ground is expected to intensify, with no ceasefire or peace treaty likely until one side admits defeat.
Russian MoD Claims TOS Solntsepyok Strike: MoD Russia shares a video claiming that a TOS Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower from the Vostok Group of Forces struck Ukrainian Armed Forces positions on the South Donetsk direction, neutralizing a stronghold and personnel/equipment.
Mash on Donbass Reports Criminal Incident: Mash на Донбассе reports on a criminal investigation in Berdyansk concerning the murder of a seven-year-old girl, with a 14-year-old suspect who allegedly has a history of troubled behavior.
Russian MoD Claims Iskander Strike on Training Camp: ТАСС and Басурин о главном report, citing the Russian Ministry of Defence, that an Iskander OTRK strike on a training camp of the Ukrainian 1st Special Operations Brigade (Teritorial Defense) near Shostka, Sumy Oblast, resulted in the destruction of up to 70 Ukrainian military personnel (including 20 instructors), 10 vehicles, and an ammunition depot. ТАСС shares a video claiming to show the strike.
Russian Intercept Claim and Drone Strike: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming to be an intercepted radio conversation from the Ukrainian "425th regiment 'Skala'" near Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk). The alleged conversation describes an FPV drone strike that destroyed a position and the command's instruction to reinforce under fire due to inability to evacuate. The accompanying aerial footage shows a drone strike on a trench position. The post is framed as Russian propaganda encouraging Ukrainian soldiers to surrender.
DeepState Reports Deterioration Near Novopil-Zelene Pole-Novosilka: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports a worsening situation for Ukrainian forces in the area of Novopil, Zelene Pole, and Novosilka. They state that Russian forces are maintaining active pressure with infantry groups, exploiting a weak point near Zelene Pole by advancing through tree lines and accumulating in the southern part of the village, while also moving from Novosilka. DeepState criticizes the accuracy of information from some adjacent units and highlights potential issues with the limited resources of the Territorial Defense Forces in this area.
Russian Claim of Trump Administration Deportation Plan: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims that the Trump administration has developed a plan to deport over 200,000 Ukrainians and hundreds of thousands of other migrants, potentially redirecting foreign aid for this purpose.
Russian Military Blogger on Combat on Konstantinovka Direction: Два майора shares a video claiming to show units of the Russian 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, advancing on the Konstantinovka direction.
Russian Military Blogger Commentary on Combat Area: Два майора shares a video showing a heavily damaged area with a fire and smoke, with audio of a Russian soldier stating they were hit and are preparing a response. The location is labeled as the Konstantinovka direction.
Updated Situation
The operational environment continues to be defined by intense ground combat across key sectors, particularly in eastern Ukraine, alongside a persistent and geographically extensive Russian aerial campaign primarily utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), and ongoing diplomatic and political maneuvering. A notable new development is a claimed Russian missile strike on a Ukrainian training base in Sumy Oblast.
Recent updates highlight:
Intense ground combat continues in eastern Ukraine, with Russian sources claiming advances north of Chasiv Yar and on the Konstantinovka direction. DeepState reports a worsening situation for Ukrainian forces near Novopil-Zelene Pole-Novosilka, indicating continued Russian pressure and claimed tactical gains in that area. Both sides are actively using drones in tactical engagements.
Continued Russian aerial activity includes the claimed Iskander strike on a training base in Sumy Oblast, which, if confirmed, represents a significant strike on Ukrainian training infrastructure. Russian military bloggers are showcasing the claimed effectiveness of their strike drones and heavy flamethrower systems like the TOS Solntsepyok on the South Donetsk direction.
Ukrainian forces are adapting tactics, as shown by the formation and intensive training of a motorcycle assault company. They are also actively using drones, with claims of successful strikes on enemy personnel.
Diplomatic and political maneuvering continues, with discussions around potential peace negotiations and the role of key international actors like the US. US Secretary of State Rubio's comments highlight the complex relationship between sanctions and the willingness for dialogue. Russian sources like Rybar are actively promoting narratives questioning the legitimacy of Ukrainian leadership and anticipating shifts in Western support. Claims regarding potential US deportation plans for Ukrainians and other migrants add another layer to the political discourse.
Internal Russian developments continue to be reported, including arrests in high-profile cases (like the founder of "Rusagro") and ongoing information operations by military bloggers promoting claimed battlefield successes and criticizing Ukrainian actions.
Allegations of covert activities and plots continue, with the charge in Poland related to an alleged plot to assassinate President Zelenskyy highlighting the ongoing security concerns and potential for interference by hostile foreign intelligence.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk, South Donetsk, Konstantinovka direction, Novopil, Zelene Pole, Novosilka, Berdyansk): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Russia claims small advances north of Chasiv Yar and on the Konstantinovka direction. DeepState reports a worsening situation near Novopil-Zelene Pole-Novosilka, indicating ongoing Russian pressure. Russian MoD claims a TOS Solntsepyok strike on the South Donetsk direction. Russian military bloggers claim a drone strike on Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk). A criminal investigation is underway in Berdyansk.
Sumy Oblast (Shostka): Affected by Russian military activity, with a claimed Iskander strike on a Ukrainian training base near Shostka.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Russian military bloggers claim their strike drones were effective in this region. A criminal investigation is underway in Berdyansk.
Poland: Charge filed against a man allegedly involved in a plot to assassinate President Zelenskyy by assisting Russian foreign intelligence.
Russia (Moscow, Berdyansk): Location of legal proceedings (arrest of "Rusagro" founder in Moscow), domestic criminal incidents (murder investigation in Berdyansk), and commentary on internal affairs.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Remains extremely high and widespread. Russian military bloggers are showcasing the claimed successes of their strike drones in various roles, including hunting vehicles and eliminating equipment/personnel. Ukrainian forces are also utilizing drones, with claims of successful strikes.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces.
Missile Activity: Russia claims an Iskander strike on a Ukrainian training base near Shostka, Sumy Oblast.
Naval Activity: No specific naval activity is mentioned in the latest messages, other than an advertisement related to car imports via sea routes which is not military relevant.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Negotiations and Peace Talks: Discussions continue regarding potential peace negotiations, with the US highlighting the potential negative impact of sanctions on dialogue. Russian sources offer commentary on the negotiation process and the role of key international figures.
Russia-United States Relations: Commentary on the Trump-Putin conversation and the US approach to sanctions and negotiations continues. Claims regarding potential US deportation plans for Ukrainians are circulating.
EU Politics: EU High Representative Kaia Kallas comments on EU pressure on Trump regarding sanctions on Russia.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Commentary on the possibility of future direct negotiations continues.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: President Zelenskyy comments on readiness for direct negotiations.
Internal Russian Politics and Society: Internal legal proceedings and domestic criminal incidents are reported. Russian military bloggers comment on leadership and strategic issues.
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Charge in Poland related to an alleged plot to assassinate President Zelenskyy, involving Russian intelligence, is a significant security and political development.
Hungary-Ukraine Relations: Mentioned in Rybar's analysis of changing Western attitudes towards Zelenskyy.
Slovakia-Ukraine Relations: Mentioned in Rybar's analysis of changing Western attitudes towards Zelenskyy.
European Union-Syria Relations: Reported lifting of EU economic sanctions on Syria.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
