Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 20, 2025, 17:18 UTC)
Major Updates from Recent Messages
Reported US List for Prisoner Exchange with Russia: Reuters has reportedly published a list of ten Americans that the US wishes to return from Russian prisons, received from a source close to the Kremlin. The individuals were convicted in Russia on various charges including participation in combat on Ukraine's side, theft, assault, kidnapping, drug smuggling, espionage, and sexual violence. This list is reportedly linked to discussions about a 9-for-9 prisoner exchange discussed by Trump and Putin.
Russian Military Blogger Claims Ukrainian Casualties and Equipment Losses: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (using "Rashists" to refer to Russian forces) shares an image depicting deceased individuals in military fatigues and a damaged dirt bike, claiming these are Russian casualties and equipment losses.
Russian Claims of Iskander Strike on Ukrainian Training Base: Военкор Котенок and Басурин о главном claim a strike by an Iskander missile on a training base of the Ukrainian 1st Special Operations Brigade (Teritorial Defense) near Shostka, Sumy Oblast. They claim up to 70 Ukrainian personnel (including 20 instructors), 10 vehicles, and an ammunition depot were destroyed.
EU Lifts Economic Sanctions on Syria: Кая Каллас and Оперативний ЗСУ report that the EU has decided to lift economic sanctions against Syria.
Hungary Claims Exposure of Ukrainian "Spies": Военкор Котенок and РБК-Україна report that Hungarian special services claim to have exposed two more Ukrainian "spies" who were allegedly in contact with the Hungarian opposition and engaged in military and energy espionage.
Russian Military Blogger Commemorates Mariupol "Liberation": Kotsnews shares commentary and photos commemorating the third anniversary of the claimed "liberation" of Mariupol by Russian forces, reflecting on the events of 2014 and emphasizing the lesson of taking territory without being distracted by ceasefires.
Russian Military Blogger Commemorates Artemovsk (Bakhmut) "Liberation": WarGonzo commemorates the second anniversary of the claimed "liberation" of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), highlighting it as a significant victory and the unique experience of the Wagner Group.
Kryvyi Rih Situation Update: Олександр Вілкул, Head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council, provides an update on the situation in the area, including Ukrainian military losses claimed by the General Staff, Russian attacks in Nikopol district (artillery and drones, no casualties reported), no shelling in Kryvyi Rih district, ongoing infrastructure repair work (water networks), and sports achievements.
Russian Ministry of Defense Claims Effectiveness of Strike Drones: MoD Russia shares a video claiming successes of Russian strike drone pilots in destroying Ukrainian aerials, command and control infrastructure in Konstantinovka, hunting motor vehicles with FPV drones, and eliminating a "Baba Yaga" drone, vehicle, and tank in Zaporizhzhia region.
Zelenskyy on Direct Negotiations with Russia: РБК-Україна reports that President Zelenskyy stated Ukraine and its partners are ready for the next direct negotiations with Russia in any result-oriented format and that the US involvement is important.
Russian Military Blogger Fundraising for Motorcycles: Colonelcassad is fundraising for 200 motorcycles for the Russian 90th Tank Division, with funds for 100 already collected.
Russian Military Blogger Showcases FPV Drones on Fiber Optic Cable: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video highlighting the use of FPV drones controlled via fiber optic cable with special winding by Russian pilots, emphasizing speed, accuracy, and reliability.
Ukrainian Report on Medical Group Work in Sumy Oblast: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a report from DW on the work of a forward surgical group in Sumy Oblast. The report highlights increased work due to Russian offensive attempts, delayed evacuation due to Russian activity (including FPV drones causing 3-day delays), injuries from FPV drones and KABs, and the experience of military medics.
Charge in Poland Related to Alleged Plot to Assassinate Zelenskyy: ASTRA reports that a man has been charged in Poland for planning to help Russian foreign intelligence prepare an assassination attempt on Ukrainian President Zelenskyy by gathering information on airport security.
Russian Military Blogger Claims Russian Forces Destroy Ukrainian Drones in Battles near Dzerzhynsk: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims that fighters of the Russian 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment are destroying Ukrainian FPV kamikaze drones, "Baba Yaga" bomber drones, and "waiting" drones on rooftops in battles near Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk).
Russian Military Blogger Receives Drawing from Daughter of Spy: Fighterbomber shares a photo of a drawing received from the daughter of a Soviet spy, Rudolf Abel (William Fisher), as a relic for his "Red Corner."
Updated Situation
The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat across key sectors in eastern and southern Ukraine, a persistent and geographically extensive Russian aerial campaign primarily utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), and ongoing diplomatic and political maneuvering.
Recent updates highlight:
Continued Russian aerial activity, with claims of Iskander strikes on Ukrainian training bases in Sumy Oblast and continued widespread use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) on various fronts. Russian military bloggers are showcasing the use and claimed effectiveness of their strike drones, including those on fiber optic cables, and claiming successful interdiction of Ukrainian drones in areas like Dzerzhynsk.
Claims of tactical gains and personnel losses are disseminated by both sides, though independent verification remains challenging. Russian sources continue to report on claimed successes in areas like Konstantinovka and Sumy Oblasts, while Ukrainian sources provide updates on Russian losses claimed by their General Staff and reports on the challenges faced by their medical units in areas of increased Russian activity, like Sumy Oblast.
Diplomatic and political developments continue to unfold, with President Zelenskyy expressing Ukraine's readiness for direct negotiations with Russia while emphasizing the need for US involvement. The reported list of Americans for a potential prisoner exchange linked to the Trump-Putin conversation adds a humanitarian and political dimension to the diplomatic landscape. The lifting of EU sanctions on Syria is a notable international development.
Allegations of espionage and covert activities persist, with Hungary claiming to have exposed Ukrainian "spies" and a charge in Poland related to an alleged plot to assassinate President Zelenskyy, reportedly involving Russian intelligence.
Information operations and narratives remain a significant component of the conflict, with both Russian and Ukrainian military bloggers actively promoting their perspectives, commemorating key events like the claimed "liberations" of Mariupol and Bakhmut, and engaging in fundraising efforts to support their respective forces.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (Konstantinovka, Dzerzhynsk/Toretsk): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Russian military bloggers claim their forces are destroying Ukrainian drones in battles near Dzerzhynsk. Russian Ministry of Defense claims their strike drones destroyed Ukrainian aerials and command/control infrastructure in Konstantinovka.
Sumy Oblast (Shostka): Affected by Russian military activity. Russia claims an Iskander strike on a Ukrainian training base near Shostka. A Ukrainian report highlights the challenges faced by a forward medical group in Sumy Oblast due to increased Russian activity and delayed evacuations caused by FPV drones and KABs.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity. Russian Ministry of Defense claims their strike drones eliminated a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone, vehicle, and tank in Zaporizhzhia region.
Syria: EU has lifted economic sanctions on Syria.
Hungary: Claims to have exposed Ukrainian "spies."
Mariupol: Russian sources commemorate the third anniversary of its claimed "liberation."
Artemovsk (Bakhmut): Russian sources commemorate the second anniversary of its claimed "liberation."
Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Situation update includes information on Russian attacks in Nikopol district and ongoing infrastructure repair.
Poland: Charge filed against a man allegedly involved in a plot to assassinate President Zelenskyy by assisting Russian foreign intelligence.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Remains extremely high and widespread. Russian Ministry of Defense claims effectiveness of their strike drones in various roles and claims destruction of Ukrainian drones in areas like Konstantinovka and Zaporizhzhia. Russian military bloggers are showcasing the use of FPV drones on fiber optic cables and claiming success in destroying Ukrainian drones near Dzerzhynsk. A Ukrainian report highlights the challenges posed by Russian FPV drones to medical evacuations in Sumy Oblast. Russian forces are reportedly hunting motor vehicles with FPV drones.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces, including in areas affecting Sumy Oblast, and mentioned as a source of injury in a Ukrainian medical report.
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active.
Missile Activity: Russia claims an Iskander strike on a Ukrainian training base near Shostka, Sumy Oblast.
Naval Activity: No specific naval activity is mentioned in the latest messages.
Air Defense Activity: Russian forces claim to be destroying Ukrainian drones in battles near Dzerzhynsk.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Russian attacks in Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast included artillery.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Negotiations and Peace Talks: President Zelenskyy states Ukraine is ready for the next direct negotiations with Russia in any result-oriented format and emphasizes the importance of US involvement.
Russia-United States Relations: Reported list of Americans for a potential prisoner exchange is linked to the Trump-Putin conversation.
EU Politics: EU has lifted economic sanctions on Syria. High Representative Kaja Kallas involved in the announcement.
Hungary-Ukraine Relations: Hungary claims to have exposed Ukrainian "spies," potentially impacting bilateral relations.
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Charge in Poland related to an alleged plot to assassinate President Zelenskyy, involving Russian intelligence, is a significant security and political development.
Russia-Syria Relations: EU lifting sanctions on Syria could have indirect regional implications.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: President Zelenskyy expresses readiness for direct negotiations.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: President Zelenskyy is engaged in discussions regarding negotiations. The head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council provides a local situation update.
Internal Russian Politics and Society: Russian military bloggers commemorate key events and engage in fundraising. A list of Americans for a potential prisoner exchange, convicted in Russia on various charges, highlights internal legal processes. A Russian military blogger shares a story about a historical figure.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
