Sitrep 2025-05-20 14:49:19

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 20, 2025, 14:48 UTC)

Major Updates from Recent Messages

Speculation on Potential US Pressure on Russia: A Ukrainian political scientist suggests that the situation in the US might "boil over," leading to pressure from (former) President Trump on Russia, potentially within a month or even a week. (РБК-Україна)
Commemoration of Mariupol's "Liberation": Russian sources commemorate the 3rd anniversary of the "full liberation" of Mariupol, highlighting the city as a symbol of the restoration of "liberated regions" and showcasing historical and recent footage. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Clarification on Ukrainian Citizen's Conviction in Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian sources provide a clarification regarding the case of Vitaliy Kukol from Sumy Oblast, stating that the prosecution has clarified the situation and he was found guilty of illegal weapons storage. (РБК-Україна)
Interpretation of AIS Spoofing Near Finland: A Finnish source interprets a peculiar pattern of vessel movements near the Finnish border depicted on MarineTraffic as "strange circle play" by the Russian "shadow fleet," suggesting potential disinformation or spoofing activity. (Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Concerns Regarding Future US Military Aid to Ukraine: Ukrainian MP Iryna Herashchenko states that the current US military aid package from President Biden is set to end in the summer, and there is no new funding for arms deliveries to Ukraine in the US budget yet. Marco Rubio reiterates that while deliveries haven't stopped, no decision has been made on new packages. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Ukrainian Parliamentarian Reports on Illegal Border Crossing and Mobilization Evasion Statistics: Ukrainian MP Zheleznyak reports that 45,000 men have illegally left Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, with another 30,000 detained attempting to leave. He also states that over 7,000 criminal cases have been initiated, but only just over 400 convictions have been issued. The report notes that the closure of the "Shlyakh" program has negatively impacted aid to the military. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Medvedev Reiterates Stance on Ukraine's Future: Dmitry Medvedev is quoted stating that if Ukraine refuses peace, it will face a path to unconditional surrender and that the current Ukraine lacks individuals authorized to conclude a peace treaty. He also referred to the International Criminal Court as a "complete fiasco" and "Hague wretchedness." (ТАСС, Два майора, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС)
Russian Official Comments on "Foreign Agent" Law and Extraterrestrials: Russian Deputy Justice Minister Oleg Sviridenko humorously stated that even an "extraterrestrial" would be declared a "foreign agent" if acting against Russia, emphasizing the broad interpretation of the law. (ASTRA)
Ukrainian Military Blogger Releases Film on Vuhledar Battle: Ukrainian military blogger Yuriy Butusov announces the release of a film titled "Could Vuhledar Be Saved?", which attempts to reconstruct the events of the battle. (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Russian Claims of Repelling Ukrainian Attempts to Break Through in Kursk Oblast: Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces, using sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) supported by artillery, attempted to penetrate Russian territory in Kursk Oblast near Krasnooktyabrsky and Volfino overnight. Russian units reportedly repelled these attempts with losses for Ukraine, including some saboteurs reportedly being killed by mines. Another attempt near Novy Put was also claimed to be unsuccessful. Russian drone operators are claimed to have destroyed a significant number of Ukrainian personnel. Russian forces are also reportedly continuing to advance in the central and southern parts of Loknya towards Yunakovka in Sumy Oblast to expand the buffer zone. (Басурин о главном)
Russian Military Blogger Reports on Russian FPV Drones Reaching Kharkiv Suburbs: A Russian military blogger reports that Russian FPV drones with RPG warheads are now reaching the suburbs of Kharkiv, citing a Ukrainian volunteer. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns)
Russian Military Blogger Claims Russian Control of Toretsk and Anticipation of Ukrainian Counterattack: A Russian military blogger claims that Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk and there is no significant resistance left in the city. However, they also state that Ukrainian forces are preparing for counterattack actions, evidenced by increased strikes on Russian rear areas and the detection of armored vehicles near the Line of Contact. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Ukrainian Prosecutor's Office Secures Return of Historical Church to State Ownership: The Cherkasy Oblast Prosecutor's Office has reportedly secured a court decision to return the St. Michael's Church in Horodyshche to state ownership. (Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Medvedev Proposes Registry of Colonial Damage for Developing Countries: Dmitry Medvedev has stated that developing countries should create a registry of colonial damage. (ТАСС)
Russian Military Blogger Reports on Rifle Used in Combat: A Russian military blogger shares a video of a rifle, noting that it was acquired with reader support and is now being used in combat. (Colonelcassad)
Russian Military Blogger Reports on Russian Advances on Konstantinovka Direction: A Russian military blogger provides an update on the Konstantinovka direction, stating that the Russian "Center" group has achieved significant success on the past weekend, with Ukrainian media reporting a Russian breakthrough to Nova Poltavka. They claim Russian forces are developing success west and north from Nova Poltavka, aiming to reach Konstantinovka from the west and take logistics under fire control, and also claim advances east of Nova Poltavka, aiming to encircle a Ukrainian grouping. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, sashakots)
Russian Official Reports on Reconstruction Efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast: A Russian official from Bryansk Oblast reports on the ongoing restoration efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast, including the repair of energy, housing, and social facilities. (AV БогомаZ)
Medvedev Comments on "Coalition of the Willing": Dmitry Medvedev has stated that the "coalition of the willing" aims to introduce an occupation regime in the remaining parts of Ukraine and draw parties into a new, larger conflict. (ТАСС)
Russian Ministry of Defense Reports on Operational Progress and Ukrainian Losses: The Russian Ministry of Defense has released a report on the progress of the "special military operation" for May 20th, highlighting claimed successes by various Russian Groups of Forces across multiple regions, providing claimed figures for Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses. They also claim to have engaged military airfield facilities and a UAV production workshop, and shot down four US-made JDAM guided bombs and 89 fixed-wing UAVs. (MoD Russia)
European and US Participation in Future Russia-Ukraine Negotiations: The European Commission has reportedly stated that the next direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia should take place with the participation of Europe and the US. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
WarGonzo Comments on Film About Mariupol Battle: WarGonzo provides commentary on a new documentary series titled "On the Edge of the Abyss" about the battle for Mariupol from the perspective of the "Somali" battalion, highly praising it. (WarGonzo)
Candidate in Polish Presidential Election Expresses Willingness to Not Support Ukraine's NATO Membership: A candidate in the Polish presidential election, Karol Nawrocki, has reportedly stated his willingness to not support Ukraine's NATO membership to gain support from the leader of an ultraright party. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Ukrainian General Staff Reports on Training of Marksmen: The Ukrainian General Staff shares photos showcasing intensive training of marksmen. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Ukrainian General Staff Shares Video of 18-Year-Old Servicemember: The Ukrainian General Staff shares a video featuring Mykola, an 18-year-old servicemember who survived occupation and joined the military upon turning 18. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Russian Military Blogger Comments on Medvedev's Statement Regarding Ukrainian Authority to Conclude Peace Treaty: A Russian military blogger comments on Medvedev's statement that Ukraine lacks individuals authorized to conclude a peace treaty, adding a provocative remark suggesting that military action could "fix this problem." (Два майора)
Russian Minister of Defense Inspects "Center" Grouping: Russian Minister of Defense Belousov has reportedly inspected the "Center" grouping of forces, received reports on the situation and the use of modern UAVs, and issued tasks. (ТАСС, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Kotsnews, Kotsnews)
Ukrainian GUR Evacuates Damaged Armored Vehicle: A Ukrainian GUR unit reportedly evacuated a damaged M1224 MaxxPro armored vehicle from the Kupiansk direction. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Reports on Illegal Border Crossing and Mobilization Evasion Statistics: Data from a temporary investigative commission of the Ukrainian Parliament indicates significant numbers of men illegally leaving Ukraine and being detained. (Два майора, Два майора, Два майора)
Alleged Incident in Moscow Oblast Involving Returning Servicemembers: A video shared by a Ukrainian source allegedly shows the aftermath of a grenade incident in Losino-Petrovsky, Moscow Oblast, involving alleged "SVO veterans," resulting in fatalities and injuries. (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Attack on Russian Military Base in Syria: Reports from Russian and Arab media indicate a перестрелка between Russian military personnel and Syrian боевики near the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia, with claimed casualties on both sides. (ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Рыбарь)
Russian Official Claims Identification and Deployment of Naturalized Migrants for Military Service: Alexander Bastrykin, Head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, stated that Russian law enforcement has identified 80,000 foreign citizens who have received Russian citizenship but have not registered for military service, and 20,000 have already been sent to the front. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Discussion of Alleged Ukrainian Attacks and Threats of Terrorism with Trump: According to a Ukrainian source citing a Russian report, Russian President Putin discussed alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory and threats of terrorism in Moscow during a call with former US President Trump. (РБК-Україна)
Reported Number of Russian Deserters: A report from "Important Stories" claims that around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave over two years of the war in Ukraine. (РБК-Україна)
Russian Ministry of Defense Claims Strikes on Airfield and UAV Workshop: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have struck military airfield infrastructure and a UAV production workshop in Ukraine over the past day. (MoD Russia, MoD Russia)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration and UNDP Cooperation: The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) have held a meeting to discuss cooperation and the UNDP has provided two vehicles for palliative care. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Ukrainian Forces Claim Destruction of Russian Reconnaissance Drone: Ukrainian forces in the Southern direction claim to have destroyed a Russian reconnaissance drone. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russian Ministry of Defense Daily Briefing: Russia's Ministry of Defense daily briefing claims that Russian air defense systems have shot down four JDAM guided bombs and 89 fixed-wing drones over the past day, and also provides claimed Ukrainian personnel losses. (MoD Russia, MoD Russia)
Zelenskyy Thanks EU for Sanctions and Discusses Future Packages: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has thanked the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, for the 17th EU sanctions package against Russia and discussed the preparation of the 18th package focusing on energy and financial sectors. (Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official)
Conviction for State Treason in Donetsk Oblast: The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reports that a resident of Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, has been sentenced to 15 years in prison for state treason. (Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Russian Military Blogger Commemorates Bakhmut "Liberation": A Russian military blogger commemorates the 2nd anniversary of the "liberation" of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), providing claimed casualty figures and highlighting the battle's significance for Russia gaining operational-strategic initiative. (Старше Эдды, Старше Эдды, Старше Эдды, Старше Эдды, Старше Эдды, Старше Эдды, Старше Эдды, Старше Эдды, Старше Эдды, Старше Эдды, Старше Эдды, Старше Эдды)
Low Public Perception of US as Enemy in Russia: According to a VTsIOM poll, only 27% of Russians now consider the US an enemy, down from 76% in 2022. (Новости Москвы)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat across key sectors in eastern and southern Ukraine, a persistent and geographically widespread Russian aerial campaign primarily utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), and ongoing diplomatic and political maneuvering. Significant recent updates highlight continued Russian ground pressure and claimed tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast, particularly on the Konstantinovka direction (including claimed breakthrough to Nova Poltavka and advances towards Konstantinovka aiming to take logistics under fire control and encircle a Ukrainian grouping) and the Pokrovsk direction (claimed tactical advances on the left flank in multiple settlements and fighting near Greenovka), as well as renewed Ukrainian attempts to attack in the border regions of Kursk Oblast, which are reportedly being repelled by Russian forces with Ukrainian losses from mines and drone operators. Russian forces are also claiming advances on the Sumy direction near Loknya and Yunakovka, aiming to expand the buffer zone, utilizing heavy weather to their advantage against Ukrainian UAVs. The EU has imposed new sanctions targeting Russia's "shadow fleet" and entities related to sanctions evasion, the military-industrial complex, and individuals accused of disseminating Russian influence, including specific journalists and activists. Russia's internal focus on tightening control over migrants through proposed mandatory biometric registration and reporting increased crime rates among foreign citizens underscores domestic security concerns, alongside efforts to identify and send Russian citizens who have not registered for military service to the front, with 20,000 reportedly already at the front. Russian forces are claiming that their FPV drones with RPG warheads are now reaching the suburbs of Kharkiv, indicating an increased range and adapted payload for these systems. A Russian military blogger claims that Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk, although anticipating Ukrainian counterattacks, suggesting a potential shift in the front line in this area. Reports on Russian military training incorporating modern warfare elements like drone countermeasures and robotic platforms indicate adaptation efforts. Diplomatic discourse continues to be complex, with differing narratives surrounding recent high-level conversations and stated positions on negotiations, including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's discussion with the German Chancellor emphasizing the need for unity among partners to find a solution for a just peace and coordinating contacts and steps. Reports from US media suggest potential US plans to deport Ukrainians, adding a new layer to the geopolitical and humanitarian considerations. Reports also indicate surprise and disappointment among European leaders after a call between Trump and Putin regarding the lack of agreement on a ceasefire or new sanctions, highlighting differing international perspectives on the path forward, while reports also suggest that Trump warned Europe he would exit negotiations regarding Ukraine and allow Moscow and Kyiv to negotiate directly, and stated he cannot promise to increase pressure on Putin, leading to concern among European officials that support and funding now fall on them. The humanitarian impact of the conflict is highlighted by reports of damaged infrastructure in Ukraine requiring modernization due to previous attacks and ongoing civilian casualties, including a recent drone attack on a humanitarian aid distribution point in Sumy Oblast causing injuries and reports clarifying a Ukrainian citizen's conviction in Sumy Oblast was for illegal weapons possession, not for actions related to defending a village by mining a road. The increasing use of robotic systems for battlefield support, such as the successful medical evacuation by a Ukrainian National Guard brigade, indicates technological adaptation in response to the operational environment. The ongoing fundraising efforts for FPV drones on the Ukrainian and Russian sides highlight the continued demand for these systems and the role of public support in acquiring them. Russian air force activity in the Barents Sea indicates continued strategic posturing. Internal issues within Russia, including criminal activity by servicemen on leave, discussions on radicalism and migration policies, fundraising for military equipment, and political commentary on social issues, remain relevant to the broader context, now including concerns about foreign influence through a religious organization and low public perception of the US as an enemy. A naval incident involving the detention of an oil tanker by Russia in the Baltic Sea introduces a new element of regional tension and maritime security concerns. Ukraine is pursuing international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state, indicating concerns about potential support for adversaries. A Russian military official reports significant export achievements for the Russian military-industrial complex, highlighting its continued economic and strategic strength. A Russian military blogger provides an update on the Kherson direction, detailing positional battles and the extensive use of drones for resupply and countering enemy UAVs. A report from "Important Stories" claims that around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave over two years of the war, highlighting potential personnel issues for Russia. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have struck military airfield infrastructure and a UAV production workshop in Ukraine, indicating continued targeting of Ukrainian military capabilities. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) are cooperating on humanitarian issues, with UNDP providing vehicles for palliative care. Ukrainian forces in the Southern direction claim to have destroyed a Russian reconnaissance drone. The Russian Ministry of Defense daily briefing claims downing of Ukrainian aerial assets (JDAMs and drones) and provides claimed Ukrainian personnel losses across various Groups of Forces. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has thanked the EU for the 17th sanctions package and discussed the preparation of the 18th package. The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reports a conviction for state treason in Donetsk Oblast. A Russian military blogger commemorates the 2nd anniversary of the "liberation" of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), highlighting its significance for Russia. New messages highlight speculation about potential US pressure on Russia from (former) President Trump. Russian sources commemorate the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "liberation," framing it as a symbol of restoration. Ukrainian sources clarify a civilian's conviction in Sumy Oblast was for illegal weapons storage, not related to village defense. A Finnish source interprets peculiar AIS data near Finland as potential Russian spoofing activity. Ukrainian MP raises concerns about the lack of new funding for US military aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian MP reports significant statistics on illegal border crossings and mobilization evasion. Medvedev reiterates a hardline stance, stating Ukraine faces unconditional surrender without peace and lacks authorized negotiators, also dismissing the ICC. Russian Deputy Justice Minister humorously emphasizes the broad reach of the "foreign agent" law. Ukrainian military blogger releases a film on the Vuhledar battle. Russian sources claim Ukrainian attempts to break through in Kursk Oblast were repelled with losses, including from mines and drones, while also claiming Russian advances in Sumy Oblast near Loknya and Yunakovka to expand the buffer zone, linking these to Ukrainian evacuations. Russian military bloggers report Russian FPV drones with RPG warheads are reaching Kharkiv suburbs. A Russian military blogger claims Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk but anticipate Ukrainian counterattacks. The Ukrainian Prosecutor's Office has secured the return of a historical church to state ownership. Medvedev proposes a registry of colonial damage for developing countries. A Russian military blogger reports on a rifle acquired with reader support being used in combat. Russian military bloggers report significant Russian advances on the Konstantinovka direction, claiming a breakthrough to Nova Poltavka and further advances aimed at encircling a Ukrainian grouping and taking Konstantinovka logistics under fire control. A Russian official reports on reconstruction efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast. Medvedev comments that the "coalition of the willing" aims to introduce an occupation regime and draw parties into a larger conflict. The Russian Ministry of Defense provides its daily report on claimed operational progress and Ukrainian losses across all fronts. The European Commission reportedly stated that the next direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations should include Europe and the US. WarGonzo comments on a new documentary series about the battle for Mariupol from the perspective of the "Somali" battalion. A candidate in the Polish presidential election expresses willingness to not support Ukraine's NATO membership to gain political support. The Ukrainian General Staff showcases intensive training of marksmen. The Ukrainian General Staff shares a video featuring an 18-year-old servicemember explaining his motivation. A Russian military blogger provocatively comments on Medvedev's statement about the lack of authorized Ukrainian negotiators, suggesting military action to "fix this problem." Russian Minister of Defense Belousov has inspected the "Center" grouping of forces and received reports on the use of modern UAVs. A Ukrainian GUR unit reportedly evacuated a damaged M1224 MaxxPro armored vehicle from the Kupiansk direction. Reports highlight significant statistics on illegal border crossings and mobilization evasion in Ukraine. An alleged grenade incident in Moscow Oblast involving returning Russian servicemen is reported. Reports from Russian and Arab media indicate an attack on the Russian Khmeimim military base in Syria with claimed casualties. Russian official claims identification and deployment of 20,000 naturalized migrants for military service at the front. According to a Ukrainian source citing a Russian report, Putin discussed alleged Ukrainian attacks and terrorism threats in Moscow with Trump. A report claims around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave. Russian Ministry of Defense claims strikes on military airfield infrastructure and a UAV production workshop in Ukraine. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration and UNDP are cooperating, with UNDP providing vehicles for palliative care. Ukrainian forces claim destruction of a Russian reconnaissance drone in the Southern direction. The Russian Ministry of Defense daily briefing claims downing of JDAMs and drones and provides claimed Ukrainian losses. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy thanks the EU for the 17th sanctions package and discusses the 18th. A conviction for state treason is reported in Donetsk Oblast. A Russian military blogger commemorates the 2nd anniversary of the "liberation" of Artemovsk (Bakhmut). A VTsIOM poll indicates a low public perception of the US as an enemy in Russia.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Udachnoye, Kotlino, Leontovichy (Pershe Travnya), Zverevo, Greenovka area of Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka direction, Kotlyarivka, Vilne Pole, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Dyliyivka, Pleshcheyevka, Toretsk, Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), Nova Poltavka, Shevchenko Pershe, Koptievo, Rusyn Yar, Popov Yar, Poltavka, Zorya, Stara Mykolaivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Mariynka, Predtechino, Minkovka, Grigorovka, Koptevo, Razino, Grodovka, Petrovskogo, Dobropillia, Vuhledar, Artemovsk (Bakhmut)): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Russian sources claim tactical advances on the Pokrovsk direction (left flank, attacking Udachnoye, Kotlino, Leontovichy, Zverevo, fighting near Greenovka) and the Konstantinovka direction, including claimed breakthrough to Nova Poltavka and further advances towards Shevchenko Pershe, Koptievo, Rusyn Yar, Popov Yar, Poltavka, Zorya, and Stara Mykolaivka, aiming to take Konstantinovka logistics under fire control and encircle a Ukrainian grouping. A Russian military blogger claims Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk but anticipate Ukrainian counterattacks. Ongoing combat is reported in Dyliyivka and towards Pleshcheyevka. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by various Russian Groups of Forces (Yug, Tsentr, Vostok) in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel in multiple locations in Donetsk Oblast, including near Markovo, Predtechino, Minkovka, Grigorovka, Koptevo, Razino, Krasnoarmeysk, Grodovka, Petrovskogo, Novaya Poltavka, Novoukrainka, and potentially Toretsk, with claimed significant Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses. Commemoration of the 2nd anniversary of the "liberation" of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) by a Russian military blogger highlights the strategic significance of this area. Ukrainian forces claimed elimination of Russian soldiers who filmed a fake video claiming to capture Vilne Pole. The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reports a resident of Dobropillia sentenced to 15 years for state treason for providing coordinates of Ukrainian military positions. Ukrainian military blogger releases a film on the Vuhledar battle. Russian FPV drones are reportedly reaching the Kramatorsk-Dobropillya highway. (Военкор Котенок, РБК-Україна, Басурин о главном, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, sashakots, ТАСС, MoD Russia, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Старше Эдды, Colonelcassad)
Sumy Oblast (Loknya, Yunakovka, Belovody, Maryino, Bunyakino, Ryzhevka, Atinskoye, Belopolye, Bessalovka, Shostka, Sumy): Affected by Russian claimed ground advances and aerial activity. Russian sources claim their units are close to fully controlling Loknya and are about 200 meters from Yunakovka, also reporting battles for Belovody and claimed liberation of Maryino, linking these successes to Ukrainian evacuation announcements in 202 settlements. Russian forces are reportedly continuing to advance in Loknya towards Yunakovka to expand the buffer zone. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by the Sever Group of Forces in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel near Bunyakino, Ryzhevka, Atinskoye, Belopolye, and Bessalovka in Sumy region, with claimed Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses. A Ukrainian source clarifies a civilian's conviction here was for illegal weapons possession, not actions related to village defense. A ballistic missile threat and strike have been reported in Shostka (previously reported). A drone attack on a humanitarian aid distribution point in Sumy caused injuries. Russian forces are reportedly utilizing heavy weather (rain, fog) to their advantage as it hinders Ukrainian UAV use. (Военкор Котенок, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, Военкор Котенок, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv direction, Kharkiv suburbs, Kupyansk, Sobolevka, Чугуївський район, Шевченківський район): Affected by Russian aerial and ground assaults. Russian FPV drones with RPG warheads are reportedly reaching Kharkiv suburbs. Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of a Ukrainian T-64 tank by FPV drone operators on the Kharkiv direction. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by the Zapad Group of Forces in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel near Kupyansk and Sobolevka, with claimed Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses. A Ukrainian source reports a drone attack in Шевченківський район. An artillery shelling in Kupyansk caused civilian casualties and stress. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, MoD Russia, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Sudzha area, Краснооктябрьский, Волфино, Novy Put, Tetkino, Glushkovo, Borisovka, Russkoye Porechnoye): Location of claimed Ukrainian attempts to break through and Russian counter-DRG operations. Russian sources claim Ukrainian DRGs supported by artillery attempted to penetrate Russian territory near Krasnooktyabrsky and Volfino overnight, and near Novy Put, which were reportedly repelled with Ukrainian losses, including some killed by mines and a significant number destroyed by drone operators, and some taken prisoner. Russian sources are also highlighting alleged Ukrainian shelling of a hospital in Tetkino. Ukrainian forces are claiming to use FPV drones for strikes on Russian police targets in Glushkovo and claiming destruction of a field ammunition depot and telecom towers. Russian sources claim a Ukrainian drone attack on civilians in Borisovka. (Басурин о главном, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, Colonelcassad)
Southern Donetsk Direction: Russian sources claim continued penetration of Ukrainian defenses, with specific claimed advances on the Shakhtyorsk and Vremevsky directions (previously reported). Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked in these areas, which were repelled by Russian forces with claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment by FPV drones and Lancet (previously reported). Russian forces claim to have disrupted Ukrainian logistics and communications through systematic work by artillery and FPV drones in the Ukrainian rear (previously reported). Russian sources claim Ukrainian confirmed losses over the past day on this direction include 5 units of equipment, a Starlink terminal, an EW station, a resupply point, and 42 UAVs (previously reported). Russian military blogger discusses claimed Ukrainian command and control issues in this area (previously reported). Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by the Vostok Group of Forces in hitting Ukrainian manpower and hardware near Novoukrainka (Donetsk People's Republic), with claimed Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses. (Воин DV, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Gulyaypole, Chervonoye, Novoandreyevka, Zaporizhzhia): Affected by Russian attacks and humanitarian efforts. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by the Vostok Group of Forces in hitting Ukrainian manpower and hardware near Gulyaypole and Chervonoye. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by the Dnepr Group of Forces in engaging Ukrainian formations near Novoandreyevka. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) have held a meeting and UNDP has provided two vehicles for palliative care to city hospitals in Zaporizhzhia. (MoD Russia, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Kherson Oblast (Otradokamenka, Kherson, Dnipro islands): Affected by Russian attacks and Ukrainian actions. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by the Dnepr Group of Forces in engaging Ukrainian formations close to Otradokamenka. Ukrainian forces in the Southern direction claim to have destroyed a Russian reconnaissance drone. Ukrainian sources report an incident in Izium where mercenaries and "Nazi representatives" are reportedly leaving, and access to forest and river areas is restricted for locals, potentially indicating changes in troop disposition or security measures in this area. (MoD Russia, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Chernihiv Oblast: Affected by Russian artillery shelling from Russian territory and aerial activity. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Syria (Khmeimim airbase, Latakia): Location of a reported attack on a Russian military base, with claims of casualties on both sides. (Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Рыбарь)
Netherlands (Den Helder): Location of a conference on Ukrainian military communications attended by Ukrainian representatives (previously reported). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Russia (Moscow, Bryansk Oblast, Crimea, Belgorod Oblast, Voronezh, Khabarovsk Krai, Ufa, Naushki (Buryatia), Krasnodar, Novorossiysk, Kabardino-Balkaria, Bryanka (Luhansk Oblast - occupied), Saint Petersburg International Legal Forum, Kemerovo, Losino-Petrovsky (Moscow Oblast), Borisovka, Russkoye Porechnoye (Kursk Oblast), Oryol): Internal issues, including legal proceedings, security concerns, recruitment, and propaganda efforts. Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing four JDAM guided bombs and 89 fixed-wing drones over the past day across various locations in Russia. Russian Ministry of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine since the start of the operation. Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping. A Russian official reports on reconstruction efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast. Dmitry Medvedev makes various political statements. Russian Deputy Justice Minister comments on the "foreign agent" law. Russian military blogger promotes a new film about the "Special Military Operation" (previously reported). A naval incident involving the detention of an oil tanker by Russia in the Baltic Sea is reported. An activist convicted for arson of a military commissariat is sentenced. Maria Zakharova makes statements on prisoner exchange and peace memorandum. Incident of violence by a convicted servicemember on leave in Kemerovo. A Russian military blogger discusses the risk of radicalism and against nikabs in Kabardino-Balkaria. A Russian military blogger reports on a rifle used in combat, acquired with reader support. An alleged grenade incident in Losino-Petrovsky, Moscow Oblast, involving returning Russian servicemen is reported, with claimed fatalities and injuries. Russian official claims identification and deployment of 20,000 naturalized migrants for military service at the front. According to a Ukrainian source citing a Russian report, Putin discussed alleged Ukrainian attacks and terrorism threats in Moscow with Trump. A report claims around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave. A VTsIOM poll indicates a low public perception of the US as an enemy in Russia. A human rights activist in occupied Donetsk (Makiivka) has been fined. There was a fire in a residential building in Oryol. (ТАСС, MoD Russia, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Полиция Хабаровского края, Рыбарь, Alex Parker Returns, AV БогомаZ, Военкор Котенок, Два майора, WarGonzo, Басурин о главном, ASTRA, ТАСС, ASTRA, Рыбарь, Colonelcassad, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Новости Москвы)
Baltic Sea: Location of a naval incident involving the detention of an oil tanker by Russia. Potential location of AIS spoofing activity. (ASTRA, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Mediterranean Sea: Location of a Russian missile carrier, with recorded missile launches (previously reported). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Poland: Political developments related to the presidential election and a candidate's stance on Ukraine's NATO membership. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Czech Republic: Agreement with Ukraine on cooperation in F-16 pilot training and defense industry integration (previously reported). (РБК-Україна)
Liberia: Flag state of the oil tanker detained by Russia. (ASTRA)
Greece: Nationality of the company owning the oil tanker detained by Russia. (ASTRA)
North Korea: Ukraine is pursuing international recognition as an aggressor state. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Finland: Location near potential AIS spoofing activity. (Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Romania: Domestic law enacted allowing the downing of illegal drones and military operations in peacetime (previously reported). (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Italy: Discussions between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and the Italian Prime Minister (previously reported). (Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official)
USA: Involvement in diplomatic discussions and potential sanctions. Reports of potential US plans to deport Ukrainians. Discussions between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and US Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio (previously reported). Reported Trump-Putin call (previously reported). Reports of surprise and disappointment among European leaders after a Trump-Putin call. Reports that Trump warned Europe he would exit negotiations and stated he cannot promise to increase pressure on Putin. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операція Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Ukraine: Widespread aerial attacks across multiple oblasts. Areas include Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr Oblasts, and the Sumy/Chernihiv border (previously reported). (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Turkey (Istanbul): Location of potential direct negotiations (previously reported). (TASS)
Germany: Discussions between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. (Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Extremely high and widespread. Russian forces used an estimated 2904 kamikaze drones over the past day (previously reported). Ukrainian forces lost an estimated 118 operational-tactical level UAVs to Russian forces over the past day (previously reported). Russian FPV drones with RPG warheads are reportedly reaching Kharkiv suburbs. Ukrainian forces are claiming to use FPV drones for strikes on Russian police targets in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast, and claiming destruction of a field ammunition depot and telecom towers on the Kursk direction. Russian sources claim Ukrainian confirmed losses on the Southern Donetsk direction include 42 UAVs (previously reported). Russian sources claim downing 89 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles over the past day. Russian drone operators are claimed to have destroyed a significant number of Ukrainian personnel during claimed Ukrainian attempts to break through in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces are reportedly utilizing heavy weather (rain, fog) to their advantage as it hinders Ukrainian UAV use. Russian Minister of Defense reports claimed successes in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel, likely involving drone use. Russian Minister of Defense reports claimed destruction of a Ukrainian T-64 tank by FPV drone operators on the Kharkiv direction. Russian Minister of Defense reports claimed destruction of a UAV production workshop. Russian Minister of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine since the start of the operation include 57,807 unmanned aerial vehicles. Russian Minister of Defense reports Russian Minister of Defense Belousov received reports on the use of modern UAVs. Ukrainian General Staff showcases intensive training of marksmen, which could involve countering drones. Ukrainian General Staff shares a video featuring an 18-year-old servicemember whose motivation includes "extinguishing the occupiers," implying combat activity that could involve drone use. Potential AIS spoofing activity near Finland could involve drones or other electronic means. Ukrainian forces in the Southern direction claim to have destroyed a Russian reconnaissance drone. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Воин DV, ТАСС, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia, Военкор Котенок, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense is actively engaged in countering Russian drone and missile attacks. Russian air defense is reportedly active in Russian border regions and occupied Crimea, and against Ukrainian drones and JDAMs. Russian sources claim to have repelled a Ukrainian air-dropped bomb strike near Novopol on the Southern Donetsk direction (previously reported) and destroyed Ukrainian UAVs over various locations in Russia. Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing four JDAM guided bombs and 89 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles over the past day. Russian Minister of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine since the start of the operation include 605 anti-aircraft missile systems. The newly enacted law in Romania allowing the downing of illegal drones and military operations on Romanian territory in peacetime is relevant to air defense in a neighboring country (previously reported). (Воин DV, AV БогомаZ, ASTRA, ТАСС, MoD Russia, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 124 guided aerial bombs dropped by the aggressor over the past day (previously reported), and 16 guided bombs used on the Kursk direction (previously reported). Russian aviation conducted KAB strikes on Berestok, Zorya, Myrnohrad (Pokrovsk direction), and Piddubne and Tolstoy (Novopavlivka direction) (previously reported). Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing four JDAM guided bombs over the past day. Russian Ministry of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine since the start of the operation include 35 JDAM guided aerial bombs (cumulative figure over the week). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, MoD Russia, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active in frontline and border areas, conducting strikes with guided aerial bombs and potentially other munitions. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 78 aviation strikes by the aggressor over the past day (previously reported), including air strikes on various locations. 8 aviation strikes were conducted on the Kursk direction (previously reported). Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel, likely involving aviation. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed engagement of military airfield facilities and a UAV production workshop. Russian Ministry of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine since the start of the operation include 662 aircraft and 283 helicopters. Russian Minister of Defense reports Russian Minister of Defense Belousov received reports on the situation, implying ongoing aviation activity. Russian air force activity in the Barents Sea with Tu-95ms bombers is reported, indicating continued strategic air force presence. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, MoD Russia, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Naval Activity: No enemy warships or Kalibr missile carriers were detected in the Black or Azov Seas as of 06:00 on May 19, 2025 (previously reported). 3 enemy ships, including 1 Kalibr carrier with up to 8 missiles, are present in the Mediterranean Sea (previously reported). A naval incident involving the detention of a Liberian-flagged oil tanker by Russia in the Baltic Sea is reported. Potential AIS spoofing activity near Finland in the Baltic Sea is reported, suggesting unusual maritime activity in the region. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ASTRA, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Ballistic Missile Activity: A ballistic missile threat and strike have been reported in Shostka, Sumy Oblast (previously reported). (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery fire from both sides. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 5134 shellings by the aggressor, including 116 from MLRS, over the past day (previously reported). 139 artillery shellings (including 3 MLRS) were conducted on the Kursk direction (previously reported). Ukrainian forces claim to have conducted missile strikes on a post office building in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast, where Russian military personnel were allegedly located. Russian forces claim to have disrupted Ukrainian logistics and communications on the Southern Donetsk direction through systematic work by artillery (previously reported). Russian sources report Ukrainian forces attempting to break through into Kursk Oblast with support from artillery. Russian forces are reportedly using artillery in Sumy Oblast. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel, including artillery pieces and MLRS combat vehicles (cumulative figure). A recent artillery shelling in Kupyansk caused civilian casualties and stress. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Diplomatic efforts continue, though significant differences persist in stated positions. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy discussed coordinated positions and potential platforms for negotiations with the Italian Prime Minister (previously reported). Russian sources claim Russian President Trump told Putin that Russia is preparing proposals for a ceasefire and asked Putin to present a "negotiable option" (previously reported). Medvedev stated that if Ukraine refuses peace, it will face a path to unconditional surrender and that the current Ukraine lacks individuals authorized to conclude a peace treaty, also dismissing the ICC. European and US participation in future direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations is reportedly being pushed for by the European Commission. A Russian military blogger comments on Medvedev's statement regarding Ukrainian authority to conclude a peace treaty, hinting at potential military means to "fix this problem." Speculation exists regarding potential pressure from (former) US President Trump on Russia concerning negotiations. Reports suggest Trump warned Europe he would exit negotiations regarding Ukraine and allow Moscow and Kyiv to negotiate directly, and stated he cannot promise to increase pressure on Putin, leading to concern among European officials that support and funding now fall on them. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has discussed his conversation with Trump and European leaders with the German Chancellor. (Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Два майора, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official)
International Pressure: The EU has approved the 17th sanctions package against Russia (previously reported) and announced preparation for the 18th package focusing on energy and financial sectors (previously reported). Ukrainian President Zelenskyy thanked the President of the European Commission for the 17th package and discussed the 18th (previously reported). Ukraine is pursuing international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state. Dmitry Medvedev proposes a registry of colonial damage for developing countries, aimed at promoting an anti-Western narrative. Dmitry Medvedev states that the "coalition of the willing" aims to introduce an occupation regime in Ukraine and draw parties into a new, larger conflict, framing international support for Ukraine as aggression. The newly enacted law in Romania allowing the downing of illegal drones and military operations in peacetime is a measure taken by a NATO member potentially in response to regional security concerns (previously reported). Reports suggest Trump warned Europe he would exit negotiations regarding Ukraine and stated he cannot promise to increase pressure on Putin, leading to concern among European officials that support and funding now fall on them. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, DeepState✙🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official)
Internal Russian Politics: Internal legal proceedings continue, including high-profile arrests and requests to extend arrests (previously reported). Proposed law on banning charitable collections to personal cards is being discussed (previously reported). Discussions on rising Islamist entry into Russia are present (previously reported). Reports on Russian internal security efforts and recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service are present, with claimed numbers identified and sent to the front, including claims of 80,000 identified and 20,000 sent to the front. A Russian official reports on reconstruction efforts in occupied territories (Bryanka). Dmitry Medvedev makes various political statements. Russian Deputy Justice Minister comments on the "foreign agent" law, emphasizing its broad interpretation. Russian military blogger promotes a new film about the "Special Military Operation" (previously reported). Incident of violence by a convicted servicemember on leave is reported. A Russian military blogger discusses the risk of radicalism and against nikabs. A report claims around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave. A VTsIOM poll indicates a low public perception of the US as an enemy. A human rights activist in occupied Donetsk (Makiivka) has been fined. There was a fire in a residential building in Oryol. (Север.Реалии, ТАСС, ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Рыбарь, Alex Parker Returns, AV БогомаZ, Военкор Котенок, Два майора, WarGonzo, ASTRA, Рыбарь, РБК-Україна, Новости Москвы, ASTRA, ТАСС)
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct and indirect diplomatic exchanges continue regarding potential negotiation frameworks and conditions. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy discussed potential platforms for negotiations with Russia with the Italian Prime Minister (previously reported). Russian sources claim Russian President Trump told Putin that Russia is preparing proposals for a ceasefire (previously reported). Medvedev stated Russia's position on Ukraine's future without peace and the lack of authorized Ukrainian negotiators. European and US participation in future direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations is reportedly being pushed for. A Russian military blogger comments on Medvedev's statement regarding Ukrainian authority to conclude a peace treaty. Russian sources commemorate the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "liberation," framing it as a symbol of restoration in occupied territories. Reports suggest Trump warned Europe he would exit negotiations regarding Ukraine and allow Moscow and Kyiv to negotiate directly, and stated he cannot promise to increase pressure on Putin. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has discussed his conversation with Trump and European leaders with the German Chancellor. (Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Два майора, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, WarGonzo, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official)
Ukraine-Netherlands Cooperation: Representatives of the Ukrainian Armed Forces participated in a conference on Ukrainian military communications hosted by the Royal Netherlands Navy, highlighting military cooperation and information sharing (previously reported). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
US-Ukraine Relations: Ukrainian GUR unit evacuated a damaged US-made M1224 MaxxPro armored vehicle from the Kupiansk direction (previously reported). Reports indicate potential US plans to deport Ukrainians (previously reported). Reports indicate surprise and disappointment among European leaders after a call between Trump and Putin regarding the lack of agreement on a ceasefire or new sanctions (previously reported). Speculation exists regarding potential pressure from (former) US President Trump on Russia concerning negotiations. Concerns are raised regarding future US military aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has discussed his conversation with Trump and European leaders with the German Chancellor. (Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Trump-Putin Interaction: Russian sources claim Russian President Trump told Putin that Russia is preparing proposals for a ceasefire and asked Putin to present a "negotiable option" (previously reported). Reports indicate surprise and disappointment among European leaders after a call between Trump and Putin (previously reported). Speculation exists regarding potential pressure from (former) US President Trump on Russia concerning negotiations. According to a Ukrainian source citing a Russian report, Putin discussed alleged Ukrainian attacks and terrorism threats in Moscow with Trump. Reports suggest Trump warned Europe he would exit negotiations regarding Ukraine and stated he cannot promise to increase pressure on Putin. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has discussed his conversation with Trump and European leaders with the German Chancellor. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official)
EU Sanctions: The EU has approved the 17th sanctions package against Russia (previously reported) and announced preparation for the 18th package focusing on energy and financial sectors (previously reported). Ukrainian President Zelenskyy thanked the President of the European Commission for the 17th package and discussed the 18th. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, DeepState✙🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official)
UK Sanctions: DeepState reports that the UK has announced significant new sanctions against Russia (previously reported). (DeepState✙🇺🇦)
North Korea-Ukraine: Ukraine is pursuing international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state due to its military cooperation with Russia. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Poland: Political developments related to the presidential election and a candidate's stance on Ukraine's NATO membership, indicating a potential point of divergence within Polish political discourse regarding support for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Romania: A domestic law has been enacted allowing the downing of illegal drones and military operations on Romanian territory in peacetime (previously reported). (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Cultural Heritage Preservation (Ukraine): A domestic legal development regarding the return of a historical church to state ownership has occurred. (Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Illegal Border Crossing and Mobilization Evasion (Ukraine): Reports highlight significant challenges in preventing illegal border crossings and mobilization evasion, and potentially issues with the legal system's effectiveness in prosecuting such cases, along with unintended consequences of policy changes. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора)
Judicial System (Ukraine): The Prosecutor General's Office reports a conviction for state treason in Donetsk Oblast. A Ukrainian source clarifies a civilian's conviction in Sumy Oblast was for illegal weapons possession. Reports highlight challenges with the legal system's effectiveness in prosecuting illegal border crossing and mobilization evasion cases. (Офіс Генерального прокурора, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Speculation on US Pressure on Russia: Speculation exists regarding potential pressure from (former) US President Trump on Russia concerning negotiations. (РБК-Україна)
Ukraine-Germany Relations: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has discussed his conversation with Trump and European leaders with the German Chancellor, and discussed cooperation on Ukraine's post-war recovery. (Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Internal legal proceedings continue, including high-profile arrests and requests to extend arrests (previously reported). Proposed law on banning charitable collections to personal cards is being discussed (previously reported). Discussions on rising Islamist entry into Russia are present (previously reported). Reports on Russian internal security efforts and recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service are present, with claimed numbers identified and sent to the front, including claims of 80,000 identified and 20,000 sent to the front. Incident of violence by a convicted servicemember on leave is reported. Russian Deputy Justice Minister comments on the "foreign agent" law, emphasizing its broad interpretation. Reported attack on Khmeimim airbase in Syria, with claimed casualties on both sides. A report claims around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave. A human rights activist in occupied Donetsk (Makiivka) has been fined. There was a fire in a residential building in Oryol. (Север.Реалии, ТАСС, ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Рыбарь, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, Рыбарь, Рыбарь, РБК-Україна, Новости Москвы, ASTRA, ТАСС)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces are conducting offensive operations, claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements on multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. They are utilizing extensive aerial and artillery assets, including a high number of strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs). Russian forces are claiming that their FPV drones with RPG warheads are now reaching the suburbs of Kharkiv. Russian forces claim downing of Ukrainian UAVs and JDAMs. Russian forces are actively engaged in ground combat across multiple fronts, including making claimed advances and disrupting Ukrainian logistics and communications with artillery and FPV drones (previously reported). Russian official claims recruitment of 20,000 naturalized migrants for military service at the front. Experiencing reported attacks on military bases (Syria, with claimed casualties). Claiming to have repelled Ukrainian attempts to break through in Kursk Oblast with losses for Ukraine, including some killed by mines and a significant number destroyed by drone operators, and some taken prisoner. Russian Minister of Defense reports on claimed operational progress and Ukrainian losses. Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping and receives reports on the use of modern UAVs. Russian military blogger claims Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk but anticipate Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian sources are reportedly utilizing heavy weather (rain, fog) to their advantage as it hinders Ukrainian UAV use. Russian Ministry of Defense claims strikes on military airfield infrastructure and a UAV production workshop in Ukraine. Russian military blogger reports on a rifle used in combat, acquired with reader support. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Воин DV, Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Басурин о главном, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Fighterbomber, Alex Parker Returns, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Рыбарь, ASTRA, Военкор Котенок, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, sashakots, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Casualties: Civilian casualties reported in Sumy Oblast due to a ballistic missile strike (previously reported). Claims of civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast within a Russian information operation (previously reported). Reports of Russian military casualties in an attack on Khmeimim airbase in Syria, with claimed casualties on both sides. Reports of Ukrainian personnel losses on the Southern Donetsk direction according to Russian sources (previously reported). Claims of significant Ukrainian losses in Sumy Oblast by Russian sources. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed Ukrainian personnel losses across various Groups of Forces over the past day. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces attempting to break through in Kursk Oblast were repelled with losses, including some killed by mines and a significant number destroyed by drone operators, and some taken prisoner. A report claims around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave. A recent artillery shelling in Kupyansk caused civilian casualties and stress. A drone attack on a humanitarian aid distribution point in Sumy caused injuries. (Николаевский Ванёк, Басурин о главном, Военкор Котенок, Воин DV, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, MoD Russia, Два майора, ASTRA, Рыбарь, Рыбарь, РБК-Україна, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources continue to promote narratives of military success and criticize Ukrainian actions, including claimed advances, the commemoration of the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "liberation," and highlighting internal incidents. Medvedev's statement on Ukraine's path to unconditional surrender and lack of authorized negotiators is part of this. Russian sources claim to be disrupting Ukrainian logistics and communications (previously reported). Russian military blogger discusses claimed use of Russian "Albatros" reconnaissance drones (previously reported). Russian sources claim the use of FPV drones with RPG warheads in Kharkiv suburbs. Russian sources claim to have liberated Maryino and are fighting for Belovody and advancing near Loknya and Yunakovka in Sumy Oblast, linking this to Ukrainian evacuation announcements. A Russian military blogger discusses potential strategic implications of taking Bogatyr (previously reported). Russian sources discuss internal issues like migration and radicalism. Russian Minister of Defense reports on claimed operational progress and Ukrainian losses, which serves as a major information operation. WarGonzo promotes a new film about the "Special Military Operation" and the battle for Mariupol, utilizing personal narratives. Russian military blogger comments on Medvedev's statement regarding Ukrainian authority to conclude a peace treaty, hinting at potential military means. Commemoration of Mariupol's "liberation" is reinforced by Russian sources. Reports suggest Trump warned Europe he would exit negotiations regarding Ukraine and stated he cannot promise to increase pressure on Putin, which could be used in Russian information operations. A VTsIOM poll indicating a low public perception of the US as an enemy in Russia could be used for internal propaganda. A human rights activist in occupied Donetsk (Makiivka) has been fined for "discrediting the Russian army." (Воин DV, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, Рыбарь, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главном, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Fighterbomber, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, sashakots, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, WarGonzo, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Старше Эдды, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Новости Москвы, ASTRA, ТАСС)
Judicial System: Internal legal proceedings against individuals continue, including high-profile arrests and requests to extend arrests (previously reported). Proposed law on banning charitable collections to personal cards is being discussed in the State Duma (previously reported). Russian Deputy Justice Minister comments on the "foreign agent" law, emphasizing its broad interpretation. An activist convicted for arson of a military commissariat is sentenced. (Север.Реалии, ТАСС, ASTRA, Рыбарь, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA)
Social Policy: Proposed law on banning charitable collections to personal cards is being discussed in the State Duma (previously reported). Discussions on migration policies and rising Islamist entry into Russia are present (previously reported). Reports on Russian internal security efforts and recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service are present, with claimed numbers identified and sent to the front. Incident of violence by a convicted servicemember on leave is reported. A Russian military blogger discusses the risk of radicalism and against nikabs. A report claims around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave. A VTsIOM poll indicates a low public perception of the US as an enemy in Russia. (Север.Реалии, Рыбарь, Alex Parker Returns, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, ASTRA, ASTRA, Рыбарь, РБК-Україна, Новости Москвы)
Military Recruitment: Reports on Russian internal security efforts and recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service, with claims of 80,000 identified and 20,000 sent to the front. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, Рыбарь, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Reconstruction Efforts in Occupied Territories: Russian sources commemorate the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "liberation" and state the intention to rebuild it (previously reported), highlighting reconstruction efforts in occupied territories. Reports on recovery and modernization efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast are present. (Colonelcassad, AV БогомаZ, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Incident in Syria: Reported attack on Khmeimim airbase, with claimed casualties on both sides. (Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Рыбарь)
Military Inspection: Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping. (ТАСС, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Kotsnews, Kotsnews)
Desertion: A report claims around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave over two years of the war. (РБК-Україна)
Public Opinion: A VTsIOM poll indicates a low public perception of the US as an enemy in Russia. (Новости Москвы)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): International military aid continues, including the confirmed shipment of Abrams tanks from Australia (previously reported). Fundraising for FPV drones is ongoing. Ukraine is actively engaged in defense and counter-drone operations. Ukrainian GUR unit evacuated a damaged US-made armored vehicle from the Kupiansk direction. Ukrainian representatives participated in a conference on Ukrainian military communications in the Netherlands (previously reported). Ukraine is pursuing international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state, potentially impacting military cooperation with Russia. Ukraine and the Czech Republic have agreed to cooperate on the training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots and strengthen defense industry integration (previously reported). Concerns are raised regarding future US military aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian General Staff showcases intensive training of marksmen. Ukrainian General Staff shares a video featuring an 18-year-old servicemember who joined the military. (STERNENKO, Николаевский Ванёк, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Military Support (Russia): Russian forces are actively engaged in ground combat and utilizing extensive aerial assets, artillery, and potentially MLRS, indicating ongoing military support for their operations. Proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support (previously reported). Fundraising for equipment is ongoing. Reports on Russian internal security efforts and recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service are present, with claims of 80,000 identified and 20,000 sent to the front. Reports on recovery and modernization efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast are present. Russian Ministry of Defense reports on claimed operational progress and Ukrainian losses, implying ongoing Russian military capabilities and support. Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping. A Russian military blogger reports on a rifle used in combat, acquired with reader support, highlighting reliance on public support for equipment. (Воин DV, Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, Рыбарь, ASTRA, AV БогомаZ, MoD Russia, Kotsnews, Kotsnews)
Civilian Support (Ukraine): Civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure reported due to Russian strikes (previously reported). Evacuation announcements in Sumy Oblast are present. Commemoration of fallen defenders and historical events (previously reported). Support from regional administrations (previously reported). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration and UNDP held a meeting and UNDP provided vehicles for palliative care. A Ukrainian source clarifies a civilian's conviction here was for illegal weapons possession. A recent artillery shelling in Kupyansk caused civilian casualties and stress. A drone attack on a humanitarian aid distribution point in Sumy caused injuries. (Николаевский Ванёк, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Басурин о главном, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Civilian Support (Russia): Civilian casualties reported in Belgorod Oblast due to claimed Ukrainian drone attack (previously reported). Claims of civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast within a Russian information operation (previously reported). Proposed law on banning charitable collections to personal cards is being discussed, potentially impacting civilian support efforts (previously reported). Reports on reconstruction efforts in occupied territories are present. There was a fire in a residential building in Oryol. (Север.Реалии, AV БогомаZ, ТАСС)
Support for Military Personnel (Russia): Proposed law on increasing pensions for dependents (previously reported). Proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support (previously reported). Fundraising for equipment is ongoing. Reports on recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service are present. A Russian military blogger reports on a rifle used in combat, acquired with reader support. An alleged grenade incident in Moscow Oblast involving returning Russian servicemen is reported, with claimed fatalities and injuries. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, Рыбарь, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Humanitarian Support: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration and UNDP held a meeting and UNDP provided vehicles for palliative care. A drone attack on a humanitarian aid distribution point in Sumy caused injuries. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Reconstruction: Reports on recovery and modernization efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast, including repair of infrastructure and social objects are present. Russian sources commemorate the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "liberation" and state the intention to rebuild it (previously reported), highlighting reconstruction efforts in occupied territories. (AV БогомаZ, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Medical Support: UNDP provided two vehicles for palliative care to city hospitals in Zaporizhzhia. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Judicial System (Ukraine): A Ukrainian source clarifies a civilian's conviction in Sumy Oblast was for illegal weapons possession, which can impact the narrative around civilian involvement in the conflict. (РБК-Україна)
Illegal Border Crossing and Mobilization Evasion (Ukraine): Reports highlight significant challenges in preventing illegal border crossings and mobilization evasion, and potentially issues with the legal system's effectiveness in prosecuting such cases, along with unintended consequences of policy changes. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора)
Cultural Heritage Preservation (Ukraine): A domestic legal development regarding the return of a historical church to state ownership has occurred, highlighting efforts to preserve cultural heritage during the conflict. (Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Military Training (Ukraine): Ukrainian General Staff showcases intensive training of marksmen, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance military capabilities. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Recruitment (Ukraine): Ukrainian General Staff shares a video featuring an 18-year-old servicemember who joined the military, serving as a recruitment effort. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults and a large-scale drone and artillery attack across multiple fronts and oblasts. Engaging Russian aerial targets with air defense systems, with successful engagements reported. Inflicting claimed significant personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces according to Russian sources. Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from widespread Russian aerial and artillery attacks. Repelling Russian assaults. Evacuated a damaged US-made armored vehicle from the Kupiansk direction. Claiming strikes on Russian military and police targets in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast, and claiming destruction of a field ammunition depot and telecom towers on the Kursk direction. Ukrainian representatives participated in a conference on Ukrainian military communications in the Netherlands (previously reported). Ukraine is pursuing international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state. Ukraine and the Czech Republic have agreed to cooperate on the training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots and strengthen defense industry integration (previously reported). Concerns are raised regarding future US military aid. Reports highlight challenges with illegal border crossing and mobilization evasion. Ukrainian General Staff showcases intensive training of marksmen. Ukrainian General Staff shares a video featuring an 18-year-old servicemember who joined the military. Ukrainian military blogger releases a film on the Vuhledar battle. Ukrainian military blogger claims Ukrainian forces are preparing for counterattack actions in the Toretsk area, evidenced by increased strikes on Russian rear areas and the detection of armored vehicles. Ukrainian forces in the Southern direction claim to have destroyed a Russian reconnaissance drone. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Басурин о главном, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Воин DV, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Два майора, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора)
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults and extensive aerial attacks across multiple fronts, claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements on multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Employing a massive number of strike UAVs and imitator drones, guided aerial bombs (KABs), extensive artillery and MLRS, and various other drone types. Claiming that their FPV drones with RPG warheads are now reaching the suburbs of Kharkiv. Reporting significant claimed Ukrainian losses in personnel and equipment across all Groups of Forces. Russian military bloggers are actively commenting on tactical situations, equipment use (including unconventional methods), and claimed successes, and engaging in information operations. Russia is strengthening military cooperation with Belarus and planning joint exercises (previously reported). Domestic incidents potentially linked to returning soldiers are being reported. Russia is utilizing a range of equipment and tactics, including FPV drones and potentially new ground robotic complexes (previously reported). Experiencing reported attacks on military bases (Syria, with claimed casualties). Claiming to have repelled Ukrainian attempts to break through in Kursk Oblast with losses for Ukraine, including some killed by mines and a significant number destroyed by drone operators, and some taken prisoner. Russian Minister of Defense reports on claimed operational progress and Ukrainian losses. Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping and receives reports on the use of modern UAVs. Russian military blogger claims Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk but anticipate Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian sources are reportedly utilizing heavy weather (rain, fog) to their advantage as it hinders Ukrainian UAV use. Russian Ministry of Defense claims strikes on military airfield infrastructure and a UAV production workshop in Ukraine. Russian military blogger reports on a rifle used in combat, acquired with reader support. Russian official claims identification and deployment of 20,000 naturalized migrants for military service at the front. A report claims around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Воин DV, Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Басурин о главном, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Fighterbomber, Alex Parker Returns, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Рыбарь, ASTRA, Военкор Котенок, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, sashakots, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Новости Москвы, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey is facilitating negotiations. The US is engaging separately with Ukraine and its Vice President met with Zelenskyy (previously reported). Speculation on former US President Trump's involvement continues. NATO members are providing military aid to Ukraine (including a new package from Belgium and potential transfers from Italy - previously reported) and conducting military exercises near Russian and Belarusian borders (previously reported). The Vatican is offering mediation and the new Pope has called for peace negotiations (previously reported). Other international leaders are engaging with Ukraine. Reports suggest Trump warned Europe he would exit negotiations regarding Ukraine and stated he cannot promise to increase pressure on Putin. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has discussed his conversation with Trump and European leaders with the German Chancellor. (Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Военкор Котенок, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official)
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of various types of drones by both sides (strike, reconnaissance, FPV, "Baba Yaga," aircraft-type, copter-type, with RPG warheads). Employment of guided aerial bombs (KABs), artillery, MLRS, and potentially missiles. Use of armored vehicles (M-113, Senator, M1224 MaxxPro), likely tanks and motorcycles in assaults (previously reported). Ukrainian forces are evacuating damaged Western-supplied equipment. Russian forces are claiming to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and communications with artillery and FPV drones (previously reported). Russian air defense claimed to have shot down JDAM guided bombs. Ukrainian forces claim strikes on Russian police vehicle boxes with FPV drones (previously reported), and claiming destruction of a field ammunition depot and telecom towers on the Kursk direction. Russian forces are reportedly utilizing heavy weather (rain, fog) to their advantage to hinder Ukrainian UAVs. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces attempting to break through in Kursk Oblast used DRGs and artillery and suffered losses from mines and drone operators. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses, including tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and artillery pieces. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destruction of a Ukrainian T-64 tank by FPV drone operators on the Kharkiv direction. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed engagement of military airfield facilities and a UAV production workshop. Russian Ministry of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine across various categories of equipment. Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping and receives reports on the use of modern UAVs. A Russian military blogger reports on a rifle used in combat, acquired with reader support. Ukrainian General Staff showcases intensive training of marksmen. Ukrainian military blogger claims Ukrainian forces are preparing for counterattack actions in the Toretsk area and are using armored vehicles. Ukrainian forces in the Southern direction claim to have destroyed a Russian reconnaissance drone. Russian Ministry of Defense claims strikes on military airfield infrastructure and a UAV production workshop in Ukraine. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, Воин DV, ТАСС, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Военкор Котенок, MoD Russia, Басурин о главном, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТIEDOTТЕET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Russian Military Personnel: Reports on recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service, with claims of 80,000 identified and 20,000 sent to the front. Incident of criminal activity by a servicemember on leave is reported. Claims of Ukrainian personnel losses by Russian sources. Claims of significant losses among Ukrainian forces in Sumy Oblast by Russian sources. A Russian soldier reportedly claimed to repel a Ukrainian drone with his hand (previously reported). Reports of Russian military casualties in an attack on Khmeimim airbase in Syria, with claimed casualties on both sides. Russian Minister of Defense reports claimed Ukrainian personnel losses across various Groups of Forces over the past day. Russian Minister of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine in personnel. Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping. A Russian military blogger reports on a rifle used in combat, acquired with reader support. Russian military blogger discusses claimed Ukrainian command and control issues on the Southern Donetsk direction, including Ukrainian units getting captured (previously reported). Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces attempting to break through in Kursk Oblast were repelled with losses, including some killed by mines and a significant number destroyed by drone operators, and some taken prisoner. A report claims around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, Рыбарь, ASTRA, Воин DV, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Военкор Котенок, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Басурин о главном, Два майора, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Новости Москвы)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued intensity of ground combat across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, with reported Russian advances on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions (high numbers of engagements) and Russian sources claiming tactical control of Toretsk while anticipating Ukrainian counterattacks, along with claimed breakthrough to Nova Poltavka and advances towards Konstantinovka aiming to take logistics under fire control and encircle a Ukrainian grouping, is a critical strategic development. These actions indicate Russia's persistent strategic objective of gaining ground in eastern Ukraine and potentially encircling or threatening key Ukrainian groupings. The claimed advances and highway cut, if confirmed, represent significant tactical gains with potential strategic implications for logistics and troop positioning. Ukrainian defense and counterattacks, as reported by the General Staff (previously reported) and Russian sources (Southern Donetsk, Toretsk), are strategically crucial for preventing Russian breakthroughs and inflicting attrition. The Ukrainian General Staff's detailed report on combat engagements by direction (previously reported) is essential for assessing the overall strategic picture. Russian Ministry of Defense reports on claimed successes across various Groups of Forces underscore the strategic focus on degrading Ukrainian forces. The commemoration of the 2nd anniversary of the "liberation" of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) highlights its strategic significance for Russia. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Воин DV, Colonelcassad, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, sashakots, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Старше Эдды)
The large-scale Russian aerial and artillery campaign across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, including the reported ballistic missile strike in Sumy Oblast (previously reported), the widespread use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) on frontline areas, and the claimed use of FPV drones with RPG warheads in Kharkiv suburbs, highlights Russia's strategic approach of degrading Ukrainian infrastructure and military capabilities while also impacting civilian areas. The reported use of FPV drones with RPG warheads in Kharkiv suburbs indicates an adaptation in Russian tactics to target urban and suburban environments, posing an increased threat to both military and civilian targets. A recent artillery shelling in Kupyansk caused civilian casualties and stress, underscoring the impact on civilians. A drone attack on a humanitarian aid distribution point in Sumy caused injuries, highlighting the humanitarian impact. The Ukrainian General Staff's report on the scale of Russian aerial and artillery activity (previously reported) is a key strategic indicator. Russian Ministry of Defense reporting on claimed downing of Ukrainian aerial assets and targeting of military facilities and a UAV production workshop indicates a strategic focus on air superiority and degrading Ukrainian capabilities. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Воин DV, ТАСС, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
The reported Russian claims of advances and liberation of settlements in Sumy Oblast (Maryino, Loknya) and ongoing battles for Belovody and near Yunakovka, along with Russian forces continuing to advance in Loknya towards Yunakovka to expand the buffer zone, are strategically significant as they indicate Russian ground pressure in border regions outside of the main Donbas front. If these claims are verified, they could represent Russian efforts to create buffer zones, divert Ukrainian resources, or open new axes of advance. The link made by Russian sources between these claimed advances and Ukrainian evacuation announcements in Sumy Oblast reinforces the narrative of Russian success and its impact on the civilian population. The Russian Ministry of Defense reporting on claimed successes by the Sever Group of Forces in Sumy region further emphasizes this strategic direction. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Alex Parker Returns, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia, Военкор Котенок)
The ongoing diplomatic discussions, including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's engagement with the Italian Prime Minister (previously reported), the German Chancellor, the US Vice President and Secretary of State (previously reported), the reported Trump-Putin conversation (previously reported), and the push for European and US participation in future Russia-Ukraine negotiations, underscore the continued strategic efforts to find a diplomatic resolution or leverage international support. The differing perspectives on negotiations, with Ukraine emphasizing a ceasefire and honest diplomacy and Russia stating a path to unconditional surrender without peace and the lack of authorized Ukrainian negotiators, highlight the significant gap between the parties and the challenges of achieving a diplomatic breakthrough. The discussion of the 18th EU sanctions package (previously reported) indicates continued strategic economic pressure on Russia. Speculation exists regarding potential pressure from (former) US President Trump on Russia concerning negotiations, introducing a new layer of uncertainty into the diplomatic landscape. Reports suggest Trump warned Europe he would exit negotiations regarding Ukraine and stated he cannot promise to increase pressure on Putin, leading to concern among European officials that support and funding now fall on them, which has significant strategic implications for the future of international support for Ukraine. (Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Два майора, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official)
The reported Russian military claims of disrupting Ukrainian logistics and communications on the Southern Donetsk direction through systematic use of artillery and FPV drones (previously reported) are strategically relevant. Targeting these critical support functions is aimed at degrading Ukraine's ability to sustain combat operations effectively in the area. Claims of destroying Starlink terminals and EW stations (previously reported) highlight the strategic importance of these specific assets. Russian Ministry of Defense reports on claimed successes across various Groups of Forces, including hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel, further indicate a strategic focus on degrading Ukrainian capabilities. (Воин DV, MoD Russia)
The reports on Russian internal security efforts, including the identification and recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service, with claims of 80,000 identified and 20,000 sent to the front, are strategically significant for understanding Russia's efforts to maintain its manpower pool for the conflict. The reported numbers, if accurate, indicate a reliance on this demographic to fill military ranks. Discussions on crime rates among migrants and rising Islamist entry (previously reported) also highlight internal stability concerns for the Russian government. Russian Ministry of Defense reporting on claimed Ukrainian personnel losses also relates to the strategic balance of forces. A report claiming around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave further highlights potential personnel issues for Russia. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, Рыбарь, ASTRA, MoD Russia, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Новости Москвы)
The Ukrainian GUR unit's evacuation of a damaged US-made M1224 MaxxPro armored vehicle from the Kupiansk direction highlights the strategic importance of logistics, maintenance, and recovery of military equipment, particularly valuable Western-supplied assets. The ability to recover and repair damaged vehicles contributes to maintaining overall force strength and operational capability. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
The commemoration of the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "liberation" and the stated intention to rebuild it by Russian sources (previously reported), reinforced by new reports highlighting the city as a symbol of restoration in "liberated regions" and showcasing historical and recent footage, is a significant propaganda effort with strategic objectives. This aims to highlight a key Russian military success, normalize Russian control over occupied territories, and portray a narrative of reconstruction and return to normalcy under Russian rule. Reports on reconstruction efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast are present, serving a similar strategic purpose. (Colonelcassad, AV БогомаZ, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, WarGonzo)
The participation of Ukrainian military representatives in a conference on Ukrainian military communications in the Netherlands (previously reported) is strategically relevant. This highlights Ukraine's focus on strategic communication, countering Russian propaganda, and engaging with international partners to shape narratives and maintain support. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
The proposed law in the Russian State Duma to ban charitable collections on personal cards (previously reported), while framed as combating fraud, could have strategic implications by potentially impacting volunteer networks that provide support for various causes, including potentially those related to the conflict or humanitarian aid. (Север.Реалии)
The reported attack on the Russian Khmeimim airbase in Syria, with claimed casualties on both sides, is strategically relevant as it highlights potential security challenges for Russia in areas where it maintains a military presence outside of Ukraine. It also underscores the involvement of various actors and the complex security landscape in the Middle East. (Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, ASTRA, ASTRA, Рыбарь, Рыбарь, Рыбарь)
The Ukrainian General Staff's comprehensive operational update (as of 16:00) providing detailed numbers of combat engagements, Russian strikes (artillery, aviation, KABs, MLRS), and locations of activity across multiple fronts (previously reported) offers a crucial strategic overview of the current situation. This data is vital for assessing the intensity of fighting in different sectors, identifying Russian operational priorities, and informing strategic resource allocation and planning. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
UNDP providing vehicles for palliative care in Zaporizhzhia highlights ongoing international humanitarian support and efforts to address civilian needs in conflict-affected areas. This is strategically important for maintaining civilian well-being and stability in the region. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Ukraine and the Czech Republic agreeing to cooperate on F-16 pilot training and strengthen defense industry integration (previously reported) is a strategic development for enhancing Ukraine's aerial capabilities and long-term defense production with international support. (РБК-Україна)
The newly enacted law in Romania allowing the downing of illegal drones and military operations on Romanian territory in peacetime is strategically relevant for regional security in a NATO member country bordering Ukraine (previously reported). This indicates a proactive approach to addressing potential threats emanating from the conflict. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Reports highlighting significant challenges in preventing illegal border crossings and mobilization evasion in Ukraine are strategically important as they relate to manpower availability and internal security. The reported statistics and issues with prosecution indicate potential vulnerabilities in the mobilization process and the need for enhanced border control measures. The unintended consequences of policy changes, like the closure of the "Shlyakh" program, also have strategic implications for logistical support for the military. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора, Два майора, Два майора)
Ukrainian General Staff showcasing intensive training of marksmen is strategically relevant as it indicates ongoing efforts to enhance specialized military capabilities, which are crucial for tactical effectiveness and can contribute to the overall strategic defense. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Ukrainian General Staff sharing a video featuring an 18-year-old servicemember is a strategic communication effort aimed at recruitment and bolstering morale by highlighting the motivations of young soldiers and promoting a narrative of patriotic defense. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
A Ukrainian source clarifying a civilian's conviction in Sumy Oblast was for illegal weapons possession, not for actions related to defending a village by mining a road, provides a different perspective on a previously reported event and highlights the importance of accurate information in the contested information environment. (РБК-Україна)
A candidate in the Polish presidential election expressing willingness to not support Ukraine's NATO membership is a politically significant development that could have strategic implications for regional security and alliances, depending on the outcome of the election. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russian Minister of Defense inspecting the "Center" grouping and receiving reports on UAVs indicates ongoing high-level command oversight and a strategic focus on the effective use of drones in military operations. (ТАСС, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Kotsnews, Kotsnews)
Potential AIS spoofing activity near Finland in the Baltic Sea is strategically relevant as it suggests the use of electronic warfare tactics in a key maritime region, potentially aimed at confusing surveillance or obscuring actual vessel movements. (Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Reports suggest Trump warned Europe he would exit negotiations regarding Ukraine and stated he cannot promise to increase pressure on Putin, leading to concern among European officials that support and funding now fall on them, which has significant strategic implications for the future of international support for Ukraine. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
According to a Ukrainian source citing a Russian report, Putin discussed alleged Ukrainian attacks and terrorism threats in Moscow with Trump, indicating that Moscow is attempting to frame Ukrainian actions in a way that justifies its own actions and potentially seeks to influence international perceptions. (РБК-Україна)
A report claims around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave over two years of the war, highlighting potential personnel issues for Russia. (РБК-Україна)
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims strikes on military airfield infrastructure and a UAV production workshop in Ukraine over the past day, indicating continued targeting of Ukrainian military and production capabilities. (MoD Russia, MoD Russia)
A VTsIOM poll indicates a low public perception of the US as an enemy in Russia, which could be strategically relevant for understanding internal Russian sentiment and the effectiveness of information campaigns. (Новости Москвы)
A human rights activist in occupied Donetsk (Makiivka) has been fined for "discrediting the Russian army," highlighting Russia's efforts to suppress dissent and control information in occupied territories. (ASTRA)
There was a fire in a residential building in Oryol, an internal Russian event. (ТАСС)

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report