Sitrep 2025-05-20 14:21:27

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 20, 2025, 14:20 UTC)

Major Updates from Recent Messages

Russian Claim of Advances on Pokrovsk and Sumy Directions: Russian sources claim active and successful offensive actions on the left flank of the Pokrovsk direction, with Russian forces attacking in the settlements of Udachnoye, Kotlino, Leontovichy (Pershe Travnya), and Zverevo. They also report fighting near the Greenovka area of Pokrovsk. On the Sumy direction, Russian sources claim their units are close to fully controlling Loknya and are about 200 meters from Yunakovka, also reporting battles for Belovody. Russian forces are reportedly utilizing heavy weather conditions (rain, fog) to their advantage, as it hinders Ukrainian UAV use. (Военкор Котенок, Военкор Котенок)
Ukrainian SSU and National Police Countering Russian Recruitment Efforts: Ukrainian SSU and National Police in Kryvyi Rih have reportedly identified and neutralized Russian attempts to recruit teenagers for arson attacks against military vehicles. Two teenagers (14 and 17 years old) who were offered money for such acts reported the attempts to law enforcement. This led to the identification of the Russian "customers" and the blocking of their intelligence activities. This is highlighted within the framework of a nationwide information campaign called "Burn the FSB agent," encouraging citizens to report recruitment attempts. The SSU has reportedly recorded over 600 cases of attempted recruitment for sabotage and terrorist acts, with 22% of those targeted being minors. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russian Internal Security Focus on Migrants and Military Service: Head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Alexander Bastrykin, reported a significant increase in crimes committed by foreign citizens in the first quarter of 2025, including a substantial rise in particularly serious crimes, group criminality, and a 2.7-fold increase in terrorist crimes, citing the "Crocus City Hall" attack as an example. He proposed mandatory biometric registration for all migrants entering Russia to enhance law enforcement's ability to identify unlawful behavior and reported that Russian law enforcement is conducting raids to identify Russian citizens who have not registered for military service, with claims of 80,000 identified and 20,000 already sent to the front. The State Duma has adopted a bill to implement a four-year experiment (starting September 1, 2025, in Moscow and Moscow Oblast) requiring migrants to register their location via a mobile app. (Kotsnews, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Ukrainian Forces Claim Elimination of Russian Soldiers Who Filmed "Capture" Video: Ukrainian military sources claim that soldiers of the 15th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion of the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade and the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade eliminated the Russian occupants who had filmed a fake video claiming to have captured the settlement of Vilne Pole in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces assert that Vilne Pole remains under Ukrainian control. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy Discusses Negotiations and Ceasefire with Italian Prime Minister: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has met with the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, to discuss their coordinated positions on the conflict and potential platforms for negotiations with Russia. Zelenskyy emphasized the need for a ceasefire to save lives and for honest diplomacy, stating Ukraine is ready but Russia's readiness to end the war needs to be ensured. They also discussed the conversation with former US President Trump and European leaders. (Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official)
Incident of Violence by Convicted Russian Servicemember on Leave: A previously convicted Russian servicemember, who had joined PMC Wagner and then signed a contract with the Russian MoD, reportedly attacked and attempted to rob a 69-year-old woman during his leave in Kemerovo, inflicting multiple stab wounds. The servicemember was subsequently detained. (ASTRA)
Kharkiv Oblast Administration Implements Barrier-Free Solutions in Social Protection: The Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, in cooperation with UNICEF, has launched a mobile application "Social Services of Kharkiv Oblast" to provide accessible social services to residents, including an interactive map of service providers, online appointments, psychological assistance, and a section for veterans' services. (Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Ukrainian Forces Claim Destruction of Russian Equipment and Personnel: Ukrainian forces of the 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade reportedly destroyed various Russian equipment, including a Supercam UAV, a "bukhanka" vehicle, 4 motorcycles, 3 mortars, an artillery piece, an EW system, an AGS, and an ammunition depot. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russian Military Blogger Discusses Risk of Radicalism and Against Nikabs: A Russian military blogger discusses the public statements of a Kabardino-Balkarian Republic official regarding the threat of radicalism in the North Caucasus and the risk of losing national identity. The blogger advocates for a ban on wearing nikabs in Russia as a first step in combating the spread of "alien ideology." (Рыбарь)
Ukrainian Fundraising for FPV Drones: A Ukrainian source is actively fundraising for FPV drones, stating a need for 135 unpaid requests for 4146 FPV drones, highlighting the significant demand for these systems. (STERNENKO)
Russian Military Blogger Comments on Drone Strikes on Kramatorsk-Dobropillya Highway: A Russian military blogger reports that drones continue to strike and destroy equipment on the Kramatorsk-Dobropillya highway, noting that the "comfortable road" to Kramatorsk has ended and the front is slowly moving towards the city, with the increased range of Russian drones contributing to this. (Colonelcassad)
WarGonzo Announces Special Broadcast on Russian Military Theorist and Future War: WarGonzo announces an upcoming special broadcast featuring Russian military theorist Alexander Prokhanov and Semyon Pegov discussing the current situation and making a forecast about a big war with the West. (WarGonzo, WarGonzo)
EU Sanctions Against Journalists and Activists Accused of Hybrid Actions for Russia: The European Union has added German journalists Alina Lipp and Thomas Röper to a blacklist for "hybrid actions" in favor of Russia, along with African activists and a publicist for disseminating Russian influence in Africa. (ТАСС)
Reported Shock Among European Leaders After Trump's Call with Putin: Reports from US media indicate that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and several European leaders were surprised and disappointed by the outcome of a call between former US President Trump and Russian President Putin, particularly regarding Trump's perceived acceptance of negotiations without a ceasefire or new sanctions. (РБК-Україна)
Naval Incident in the Baltic Sea: Russia detained a Liberian-flagged oil tanker belonging to a Greek company after it left an Estonian port, sparking concerns about unpredictable Russian behavior and maritime security in the Baltic Sea. (ASTRA)
Russian Military Blogger Fundraising for Motorcycles: A Russian military blogger is fundraising for 200 motorcycles for a Russian regiment on the "Center" Group's Pokrovsk direction, highlighting the ongoing need for vehicles and reliance on non-governmental support. (Colonelcassad)
Ukrainian Parliamentarians Propose Recognizing North Korea as Aggressor State: A draft resolution has been registered in the Ukrainian Parliament proposing an appeal to international organizations and national parliaments to recognize the Democratic People's Republic of Korea as an aggressor state. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Conviction of Activist for Arson of Military Commissariat: An activist, Alexey Rozhkov, who was reportedly illegally transferred from Kyrgyzstan to Russia, was sentenced to 16 years in prison for a "terrorist act" related to the arson of a military commissariat. (ASTRA)
Russian Claim of Russian Initiative in Prisoner Exchange: Maria Zakharova stated that the initiative for the prisoner exchange agreed upon in Istanbul was Russian. (ТАСС)
Russian Readiness for Continued Contacts and Peace Memorandum: Maria Zakharova stated that Russia is ready for continued contacts with the Ukrainian side and will propose that Kyiv work on a memorandum for movement towards a future peace treaty. She also claimed the Ukrainian delegation spoke Russian at the Istanbul talks and stated that Zelenskyy's attempts to disrupt negotiations have failed. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Damage to Ukrainian Vehicle by FPV Drone: A Ukrainian source reports that a Mazda vehicle, recently transported from Germany, was hit by a Russian FPV drone after two months of operation, resulting in significant damage. No Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the incident. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Belgian Statement on Potential Troop Deployment to Ukraine: The Belgian Minister of Defense, Theo Francken, stated that Belgium is ready to send its troops to Ukraine as part of a "coalition of the willing" led by France and the UK, immediately after a ceasefire is concluded. (РБК-Україна)
Russian Government Regulation of University Admissions: The State Duma has adopted a bill granting the government the authority to regulate the number of paid admissions to universities, aiming to limit paid admissions in specialties not in demand by the economy and address the deficit of qualified personnel. (ASTRA, ТАСС)
IT Camp for Children of Servicemembers in Tysmenytsia: An IT camp for children of military personnel took place in Tysmenytsia, focusing on IT basics, modern technologies, practical tasks, and teamwork. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
Suspected Arson at Russian Military Base: Suspected terrorists reportedly equipped firing points in a building near a Russian military base and opened fire on Russian servicemen, leading to combat. This occurred after the EU reportedly lifted sanctions against the "Saakashvili regime." (Alex Parker Returns)
Russian Propaganda on Crimean Icons: A Russian military blogger questions the appearance of the Russian coat of arms on kremlin.ru, suggesting that the crosses on the eagles' crowns have been replaced with "shy rhombuses," and linking this to claims of not abandoning Orthodox believers in Ukraine. (Военкор Котенок)
Cleanup Efforts in Makiivka Market: Following a previous report on garbage accumulation at a market in Makiivka, cleanup efforts have occurred, with more bins added, although the area is still not completely clean. (Mash на Донbasse)
Widespread Mobile Network and Internet Outage in Spain: A widespread outage of mobile network and internet services occurred across Spain, affecting major cities, attributed to a system failure at Telefónica. Russian sources link this to perceived critical errors in the country's energy system and the impact of "green agenda" policies. (Рыбарь, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Strelkov's Assessment of Negotiation Attempts: Igor Strelkov (Girkin) commented on the situation, interpreting recent events as a failed "first attempt to make us capitulate on limited terms" and criticizing the current Russian leadership. (Стрелков Игорь Иванович)
Head of Investigative Committee Comments on Rising Islamist Entry into Russia: Alexander Bastrykin reportedly stated that the entry of Islamists into Russia is increasing. (Alex Parker Returns)
Video Allegedly Showing Failed Russian Attempt to Down Drone with Rifle: A video shared by a Ukrainian source, attributed to the 35th Marine Brigade, allegedly shows a Russian soldier unsuccessfully attempting to shoot down a Ukrainian FPV drone with a rifle. (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
EU Lifts Economic Sanctions on Syria (Excluding Assad Regime): EU countries agreed to lift all economic sanctions on Syria, except those related to the regime of former President Bashar al-Assad. (ASTRA)
Ukrainian Initiative to Hunt Russian Air Defense on Occupied Territories: An information campaign using the "eVorog" chatbot is being promoted to encourage citizens in occupied territories to report the location of Russian air defense systems. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Ukrainian National Guard Brigade "Khartia" Utilizes Robotic Platform for Evacuation: The 13th Brigade of the National Guard "Khartia" has reportedly conducted a successful medical evacuation of a wounded soldier using a ground robotic platform over a distance of 12 kilometers, highlighting the increasing use of robotic systems in battlefield support. (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Meeting Between Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters and US Embassy Delegation: A working meeting took place between the Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War and a US Embassy delegation to discuss the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians, violations of international humanitarian law by Russia, and potential US involvement in humanitarian initiatives. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими, Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими)
Russian Air Force Activity in Barents Sea: Two Tu-95ms long-range bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces conducted a planned flight in the air space over neutral waters of the Barents Sea, escorted by Su-33 aircraft of the Russian Navy. (MoD Russia)
Russian Military Blogger Criticizes Lack of "Army of Wartime": A Russian military blogger reflects on the ongoing conflict, comparing the current state of the Russian Armed Forces to the "corpses" of the LNR/DNR "People's Militia" in 2018 and stating that the army of peacetime has not transformed into a normal army of wartime, characterizing it as an "army of some surreal timelessness." (Филолог в засаде)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat across key sectors in eastern and southern Ukraine, a persistent and geographically widespread Russian aerial campaign primarily utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), and ongoing diplomatic and political maneuvering. Significant recent updates highlight continued Russian ground pressure and claimed tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast, particularly on the Konstantinovka direction and near Kotlyarivka, as well as renewed Ukrainian attempts to attack in the border regions of Kursk Oblast, which are reportedly being repelled by Russian forces. Russian forces are also claiming successful offensive actions on the left flank of the Pokrovsk direction, aiming to reach key locations and potentially to cut off Ukrainian logistics or achieve deeper penetrations, and also reporting advances on the Sumy direction near Loknya and Yunakovka. The EU has imposed new sanctions targeting Russia's "shadow fleet" and entities related to sanctions evasion, the military-industrial complex, and individuals accused of disseminating Russian influence, including specific journalists and activists. Russia's internal focus on tightening control over migrants through proposed mandatory biometric registration and reporting increased crime rates among foreign citizens underscores domestic security concerns, alongside efforts to identify and send Russian citizens who have not registered for military service to the front and concerns raised by a Russian military blogger regarding the influence of a Muslim religious organization and its alleged links to foreign entities. Reports on Russian military training incorporating modern warfare elements like drone countermeasures indicate adaptation efforts. Diplomatic discourse continues to be complex, with differing narratives surrounding recent high-level conversations and stated positions on negotiations, including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's discussion with the Italian Prime Minister emphasizing the need for a ceasefire and honest diplomacy. Reports from US media suggest potential US plans to deport Ukrainians, adding a new layer to the geopolitical and humanitarian considerations. Reports also indicate surprise and disappointment among European leaders after a call between Trump and Putin regarding the lack of agreement on a ceasefire or new sanctions, highlighting differing international perspectives on the path forward. The humanitarian impact of the conflict is highlighted by reports of damaged infrastructure in Ukraine requiring modernization due to previous attacks and ongoing civilian casualties, including a recent drone attack on a humanitarian aid distribution point in Sumy Oblast causing injuries and reports clarifying a Ukrainian citizen's conviction was for illegal weapons possession, not for defending a village by mining a road. The increasing use of robotic systems for battlefield support, such as the successful medical evacuation by a Ukrainian National Guard brigade, indicates technological adaptation in response to the operational environment. The ongoing fundraising efforts for FPV drones on the Ukrainian side highlight the continued demand for these systems and the role of public support in acquiring them. Russian air force activity in the Barents Sea indicates continued strategic posturing. Internal issues within Russia, including criminal activity by servicemen on leave, discussions on radicalism and migration policies, fundraising for military equipment, and political commentary on social issues, remain relevant to the broader context, now including concerns about foreign influence through a religious organization. A naval incident involving the detention of an oil tanker by Russia in the Baltic Sea introduces a new element of regional tension and maritime security concerns. Ukraine is pursuing international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state, indicating concerns about potential support for adversaries. A Russian military official reports significant export achievements for the Russian military-industrial complex, highlighting its continued economic and strategic strength. A Russian military blogger provides an update on the Kherson direction, detailing positional battles and the extensive use of drones for resupply and countering enemy UAVs. Recent information from a Ukrainian source clarifies that a civilian's conviction in Sumy Oblast was for illegal weapons possession, not for actions related to defending a village by mining a road, providing a different perspective on a previously reported event. A Russian military blogger has expressed concerns about the influence of a Muslim religious organization (ДУМ) in Russia, alleging links to "Russophobia," "replacement migration," attributes of "radicals," and foreign influence, including alleged interactions with British special services, suggesting internal Russian concerns about foreign influence and potential threats. The Ukrainian SSU and National Police have reportedly successfully countered Russian efforts to recruit teenagers in Kryvyi Rih for arson attacks against military vehicles, highlighting ongoing Russian attempts to conduct sabotage and intelligence activities through vulnerable populations and successful Ukrainian counter-intelligence efforts. Reports from a Russian military blogger suggest tactical successes on the Pokrovsk direction, particularly on the left flank, with advances in multiple settlements, indicating continued Russian offensive pressure in this key area. Russian sources are claiming tactical gains on the Sumy direction, with their forces reportedly close to fully controlling Loknya and near Yunakovka, suggesting active fighting and claimed territorial changes in this border region. Russian military sources are reporting on the detection and alleged destruction of Ukrainian drones targeting a checkpoint in Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in casualties among military personnel and law enforcement, highlighting continued Ukrainian drone activity and the risks faced by personnel in frontline areas. A Russian military blogger is advocating for mandatory oral testing in Russian language for migrant children entering schools, linking it to concerns about corruption and potential sabotage of migration order efforts, and also expressing concern about increased Arabic language study, highlighting internal Russian debates and concerns related to migration and cultural influence. Russian President Putin reportedly discussed alleged Ukrainian attacks and threats of terrorism in Moscow with former US President Trump, according to a Ukrainian source citing a Russian report, indicating that Moscow is attempting to frame Ukrainian actions in a way that justifies its own actions and potentially seeks to influence international perceptions. A report from "Important Stories" claims that around 50,000 Russian soldiers have been declared deserters or absent without leave over two years of the war in Ukraine, with some being unaccounted for after leave or transfer, highlighting potential issues with personnel retention and accountability within the Russian military. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have struck military airfield infrastructure and a UAV production workshop in Ukraine over the past day, indicating continued targeting of Ukrainian military and production capabilities. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration and the UN Development Programme (UNDP) have held a meeting to discuss cooperation and the UNDP has provided two vehicles for palliative care to city hospitals in Zaporizhzhia, highlighting ongoing international humanitarian support and efforts to address healthcare needs in the region. Ukrainian forces in the Southern direction claim to have destroyed a Russian reconnaissance drone, indicating continued aerial reconnaissance activity by Russia and successful Ukrainian air defense against these systems. Russia's Ministry of Defense daily briefing claims that Russian air defense systems have shot down four JDAM guided bombs and 89 fixed-wing drones over the past day, and also provides claimed Ukrainian personnel losses across various Groups of Forces, offering a Russian perspective on the effectiveness of their air defense and the scale of Ukrainian casualties. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has thanked the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, for the 17th EU sanctions package against Russia, highlighting specific targets like the tanker fleet and military-industrial complex, and discussed the preparation of the 18th package focusing on energy and financial sectors, indicating continued coordinated efforts to increase economic pressure on Russia. The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reports that a resident of Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, has been sentenced to 15 years in prison for state treason, for providing coordinates of Ukrainian military positions to Russian special services through Telegram in the fall of 2023, highlighting ongoing counter-intelligence efforts and successful prosecution of collaborators. A Russian military blogger commemorates the 2nd anniversary of the "liberation" of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), providing claimed casualty figures for both sides and highlighting the battle's significance for Russia gaining operational-strategic initiative, and suggesting a memorial for Wagner Group fighters, which serves as a historical narrative and propaganda effort. New messages highlight intense ground fighting on the Konstantinovka direction with reports of Russian units of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division advancing, indicating continued Russian offensive pressure in this key area. Ukrainian sources report an incident in Izium where mercenaries and "Nazi representatives" are reportedly leaving, and access to forest and river areas is restricted for locals, potentially indicating changes in troop disposition or security measures. A widespread mobile network and internet outage has occurred in Spain, with Russian sources attributing it to systemic issues in the country's energy system and potentially "green agenda" policies, serving as a point of commentary on European infrastructure reliability. Maria Zakharova has made statements regarding the failed attempt by Zelenskyy to disrupt negotiations in Istanbul, Russia's readiness for continued contact and a peace memorandum, and claims about the Ukrainian delegation speaking Russian, indicating ongoing diplomatic communication and competing narratives. A Russian military blogger has discussed the potential strategic implications of taking Bogatyr, suggesting it provides access to Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, offering insight into perceived Russian objectives. A Russian military blogger is reporting on positional battles on the Kherson direction, noting heavy drone use by both sides for resupply and countering enemy UAVs, highlighting the nature of combat in this area and the role of drones. The Russian Investigative Committee Head, Alexander Bastrykin, provided updated statistics on crimes committed by foreign citizens in Russia, including a significant increase in serious and terrorist crimes, and reported on efforts to identify and mobilize migrants who have received Russian citizenship but have not registered for military service, with 20,000 reportedly already at the front, underscoring internal security and manpower concerns. A Ukrainian source clarifies that a civilian's conviction in Sumy Oblast was for illegal weapons possession, not for actions related to defending a village by mining a road, providing a different perspective on a previously reported event. The Ukrainian parliament has registered a draft resolution proposing the recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state due to its military cooperation with Russia, indicating Ukrainian concerns about potential support for Russia. The General Director of Rostec has reported significant export achievements for the Russian military-industrial complex in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting its continued economic and strategic strength. A petition for a federal law against domestic violence in Russia has gained significant support, indicating social concerns and ongoing legislative debates. Ukrainian forces of the GUR's "Timur Special Unit" reportedly evacuated a damaged M1224 MaxxPro armored vehicle from the Kupiansk direction after it was hit by Russian forces, highlighting the ongoing importance of logistics and vehicle recovery in combat operations. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's thank you to the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, for the 17th EU sanctions package and discussion of the 18th package indicate continued coordinated efforts to increase economic pressure on Russia. The Ministry of Defense of Russia has claimed the destruction of a Ukrainian T-64 tank by FPV drone operators on the Kharkiv direction, highlighting the continued use and effectiveness of drones against armored vehicles. Ukraine and the Czech Republic have agreed to cooperate on the training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots and strengthen defense industry integration, indicating continued international support and efforts to enhance Ukrainian aerial capabilities. Russian President Trump reportedly told Putin that Russia is preparing proposals for a ceasefire and asked Putin to present a "negotiable option," according to Axios, indicating potential diplomatic movement and differing perspectives on the negotiation process. Ukroboronprom and KNDS Belgium SA have signed a Memorandum of Cooperation to organize joint production of medium-caliber rounds, signaling efforts to increase domestic defense production with international partnership. DeepState reports on new significant sanctions announced by the EU and the UK against Russia, targeting its "shadow fleet," military-industrial complex, energy sector, financial institutions, and individuals, indicating continued economic pressure and efforts to restrict Russia's ability to fund and conduct military operations. A Russian military blogger has shared videos of what they claim are Russian "Albatros" reconnaissance drones being used in combat, noting the difficulty in coordinating them for paired work, potentially highlighting adaptation efforts and technical challenges with specific drone types. Images from the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces depict soldiers in various daily activities, including interacting with a cat and preparing food in defensive positions, offering glimpses into soldier morale and living conditions in the field, while also highlighting fortified positions and logistical aspects.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Speculation on Potential US Pressure on Russia: A Ukrainian political scientist interviewed by RBC-Ukraine suggests that the situation in the US might "boil over," leading to pressure from (former) President Trump on Russia, potentially within a month or even a week. This introduces a new element of speculation regarding potential shifts in US policy and its impact on the conflict. (РБК-Україна)
Commemoration of Mariupol's "Liberation": Russian sources, including RIA Novosti via Arkhangel Spetsnaza, commemorate the 3rd anniversary of the "full liberation" of Mariupol, highlighting the city as a symbol of the restoration of "liberated regions" and showcasing historical and recent footage. This serves as a significant propaganda effort to reinforce the narrative of Russian success and control over occupied territories. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Clarification on Ukrainian Citizen's Conviction in Sumy Oblast: RBC-Ukraine provides a clarification regarding the case of Vitaliy Kukol from Sumy Oblast, stating that the prosecution has clarified the situation. While the initial report indicated a conviction related to defending the region, this new information confirms he was found guilty of illegal weapons storage. This is important for correcting potentially inaccurate information and understanding the nature of domestic legal proceedings in Ukraine. (РБК-Україна)
Interpretation of AIS Spoofing Near Finland: A Finnish source interprets a peculiar pattern of vessel movements near the Finnish border depicted on MarineTraffic as "strange circle play" by the Russian "shadow fleet," expressing bewilderment and noting that the vessels are not actually in those locations. This suggests potential disinformation or spoofing activity aimed at confusing maritime surveillance, potentially near a NATO border, highlighting electronic warfare tactics. (Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Concerns Regarding Future US Military Aid to Ukraine: Ukrainian MP Iryna Herashchenko states that the current US military aid package from President Biden is set to end in the summer, and there is no new funding for arms deliveries to Ukraine in the US budget yet. This raises concerns about the continuity of crucial military support for Ukraine. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Ukrainian Parliamentarian Reports on Illegal Border Crossing and Mobilization Evasion Statistics: Ukrainian MP Zheleznyak, citing a temporary investigative commission of the Verkhovna Rada, reports that 45,000 men have illegally left Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, with another 30,000 detained attempting to leave. He also states that over 7,000 criminal cases have been initiated, but only just over 400 convictions have been issued. The report notes that the closure of the "Shlyakh" program has negatively impacted aid to the military. This highlights significant challenges in preventing illegal border crossings and mobilization evasion, and potentially issues with the legal system's effectiveness in prosecuting such cases, along with unintended consequences of policy changes. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Medvedev Reiterates Stance on Ukraine's Future: Dmitry Medvedev is quoted stating that if Ukraine refuses peace, it will face a path to unconditional surrender and that the current Ukraine lacks individuals authorized to conclude a peace treaty. He also referred to the International Criminal Court as a "complete fiasco" and "Hague wretchedness." These statements reinforce a hardline Russian position, dismiss negotiation possibilities on Ukrainian terms, and express disdain for international legal institutions, all serving as part of the Russian information operation. (ТАСС, Два майора)
Russian Official Comments on "Foreign Agent" Law and Extraterrestrials: Russian Deputy Justice Minister Oleg Sviridenko, speaking at a legal forum, humorously (or perhaps not entirely humorously, given the context) stated that even an "extraterrestrial" would be declared a "foreign agent" if acting against Russia, emphasizing the broad interpretation of the law and claiming it was necessary due to Western pressure. This highlights the expansive and potentially arbitrary nature of Russia's "foreign agent" legislation and its use as a tool against perceived opposition. (ASTRA)
Ukrainian Military Blogger Releases Film on Vuhledar Battle: Ukrainian military blogger Yuriy Butusov announces the release of a film titled "Could Vuhledar Be Saved?", which attempts to reconstruct the events of the battle and features soldiers who fought there. This initiative aims to analyze a significant and costly battle, understand the reasons for the outcome, and likely serve as a form of commemoration and lesson-learning. (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Russian Claims of Repelling Ukrainian Attempts to Break Through in Kursk Oblast: Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces, using sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) supported by artillery, attempted to penetrate Russian territory in Kursk Oblast near Krasnooktyabrsky and Volfino overnight. Russian units reportedly repelled these attempts with losses for Ukraine, including some saboteurs reportedly being killed by mines. Another attempt near Novy Put was also claimed to be unsuccessful. Russian drone operators are claimed to have destroyed a significant number of Ukrainian personnel. Russian forces are also reportedly continuing to advance in the central and southern parts of Loknya towards Yunakovka in Sumy Oblast to expand the buffer zone. Artillery and drones are reportedly being used by both sides. Russian sources are also highlighting alleged Ukrainian shelling of a hospital in Tetkino as "revenge" for the failed DRG operations. This indicates continued cross-border activity and a Russian focus on defending their territory while also claiming advances in Sumy Oblast. (Басурин о главном)
Russian Military Blogger Reports on Russian FPV Drones Reaching Kharkiv Suburbs: A Russian military blogger reports that Russian FPV drones with RPG warheads are now reaching the suburbs of Kharkiv, citing a Ukrainian volunteer. This indicates an increased range and adapted payload for Russian FPV drones, posing a greater threat to urban and suburban areas. They also note that Russian drones are reaching the Kramatorsk-Dobropillya highway and Zaporizhzhia, highlighting the extended reach of these systems. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Russian Military Blogger Claims Russian Control of Toretsk and Anticipation of Ukrainian Counterattack: A Russian military blogger claims that Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk and there is no significant resistance left in the city. However, they also state that Ukrainian forces are preparing for counterattack actions, evidenced by increased strikes on Russian rear areas and the detection of armored vehicles near the Line of Contact. They report ongoing combat in Dyliyivka and towards Pleshcheyevka, and that Russian units are gradually advancing towards Konstantinovka. This suggests a shift in the front line in the Toretsk area, with Russia claiming control of the city but expecting Ukrainian attempts to regain it. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Ukrainian Prosecutor's Office Secures Return of Historical Church to State Ownership: The Cherkasy Oblast Prosecutor's Office has reportedly secured a court decision to return the St. Michael's Church in Horodyshche, a national cultural heritage site, to state ownership, after it was unlawfully registered as private property by a religious organization. This is a domestic legal development related to cultural heritage preservation. (Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Medvedev Proposes Registry of Colonial Damage for Developing Countries: Dmitry Medvedev has stated that developing countries should create a registry of colonial damage, calculate the losses, and initiate anti-colonial proceedings. This is a political statement aimed at appealing to developing nations and promoting an anti-Western narrative. (ТАСС)
Russian Military Blogger Reports on Rifle Used in Combat: A Russian military blogger shares a video of a rifle, noting that it was acquired with reader support and is now being used in combat. This highlights reliance on public support for obtaining equipment and the practical use of donated items on the front lines. (Colonelcassad)
Russian Military Blogger Reports on Russian Advances on Konstantinovka Direction: A Russian military blogger provides an update on the Konstantinovka direction, stating that the Russian "Center" group has achieved significant success on the past weekend, with Ukrainian media reporting a Russian breakthrough to Nova Poltavka. They claim Russian forces are developing success west from Nova Poltavka towards Shevchenko Pershe and Koptievo, and north towards Rusyn Yar, Popov Yar, and Poltavka, aiming to reach Konstantinovka from the west and take logistics under fire control. They also claim advances east of Nova Poltavka, aiming to encircle a Ukrainian grouping near Zorya and Stara Mykolaivka and form a "new cauldron." The blogger emphasizes the strategic importance of Konstantinovka and Druzhkivka as keys to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, sashakots)
Russian Official Reports on Reconstruction Efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast: A Russian official from Bryansk Oblast reports on the ongoing restoration efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast, including the repair of energy, housing, and social facilities. They state that over 1.6 billion rubles have been invested, and work is being done on 15 objects, including hospitals and residential buildings, with some projects already completed. This highlights Russian efforts to portray a narrative of reconstruction and improvement in occupied territories. (AV БогомаZ)
Medvedev Comments on "Coalition of the Willing": Dmitry Medvedev has stated that the "coalition of the willing" aims to introduce an occupation regime in the remaining parts of Ukraine and draw parties into a new, larger conflict. This is a political statement interpreting international support for Ukraine as an aggressive move towards Russia and a broader conflict. (ТАСС)
Russian Ministry of Defense Reports on Operational Progress and Ukrainian Losses: The Russian Ministry of Defense has released a report on the progress of the "special military operation" for May 20th, highlighting claimed successes by various Russian Groups of Forces (Sever, Zapad, Yug, Tsentr, Vostok, Dnepr) in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel across multiple regions (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson). They provide claimed figures for Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses, including tanks, armored fighting vehicles, artillery pieces, EW stations, motor vehicles, and ammunition depots. They also claim to have engaged military airfield facilities and a UAV production workshop, and shot down four US-made JDAM guided bombs and 89 fixed-wing UAVs over the past day. Cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine since the start of the operation are also provided. This is a high-level official Russian summary of claimed military achievements and Ukrainian losses across the entire front. (MoD Russia)
European and US Participation in Future Russia-Ukraine Negotiations: The European Commission has reportedly stated that the next direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia should take place with the participation of Europe and the US. This suggests a push for a multilateral format for future peace talks, involving key Western partners. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
WarGonzo Comments on Film About Mariupol Battle: WarGonzo provides commentary on a new documentary series titled "On the Edge of the Abyss" about the battle for Mariupol from the perspective of the "Somali" battalion. The blogger highly praises the film as a significant work of art and a historical record, reflecting on the personal impact of the battle and the loss of comrades. This highlights the continued use of media and personal narratives to commemorate key battles and shape the understanding of the conflict within Russia. (WarGonzo)
Candidate in Polish Presidential Election Expresses Willingness to Not Support Ukraine's NATO Membership: A candidate in the Polish presidential election, Karol Nawrocki, who came in second in the first round, has reportedly stated his willingness to not support Ukraine's NATO membership to gain support from the leader of an ultraright party. This introduces a potential point of divergence within Polish political discourse regarding support for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration, which could have strategic implications for regional security and alliances. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Ukrainian General Staff Reports on Training of Marksmen: The Communication Unit of the Regional Directorate of the Territorial Defense Forces "North" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shares photos showcasing intensive training of marksmen, including firing from different positions, changing firing lines, camouflage, and working with an observer. This highlights ongoing training and preparation of specialized military personnel within the Ukrainian forces. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Ukrainian General Staff Shares Video of 18-Year-Old Servicemember: The Ukrainian General Staff shares a video featuring Mykola, an 18-year-old servicemember who survived occupation in Kherson, helped the Armed Forces after liberation, and joined the military upon turning 18 to seek revenge and liberate Ukrainian lands. This is a piece of Ukrainian information operation and recruitment effort, aiming to highlight the motivations of young soldiers and encourage participation in the military. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Russian Military Blogger Comments on Medvedev's Statement Regarding Ukrainian Authority to Conclude Peace Treaty: A Russian military blogger comments on Medvedev's statement that Ukraine lacks individuals authorized to conclude a peace treaty, adding a provocative remark suggesting that military action could "fix this problem." This reinforces the hardline Russian stance and hints at potential escalatory intentions, serving as part of the Russian information operation. (Два майора)
Russian Minister of Defense Inspects "Center" Grouping: Russian Minister of Defense Belousov has reportedly inspected the "Center" grouping of forces, received reports on the situation and the use of modern UAVs, and issued tasks. This indicates ongoing high-level command and control within the Russian military and a focus on the effectiveness of UAVs in operations. (ТАСС)

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Udachnoye, Kotlino, Leontovichy (Pershe Travnya), Zverevo, Greenovka area of Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka direction, Kotlyarivka, Vilne Pole, Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Dyliyivka, Pleshcheyevka, Toretsk, Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), Nova Poltavka, Shevchenko Pershe, Koptievo, Rusyn Yar, Popov Yar, Poltavka, Zorya, Stara Mykolaivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Mariynka, Predtechino, Minkovka, Grigorovka, Koptevo, Razino, Grodovka, Petrovskogo): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Russian sources claim tactical advances on the Pokrovsk direction (left flank, attacking Udachnoye, Kotlino, Leontovichy, Zverevo, fighting near Greenovka) and the Konstantinovka direction, including advances towards Nova Poltavka, Shevchenko Pershe, Koptievo, Rusyn Yar, Popov Yar, Poltavka, Zorya, and Stara Mykolaivka, aiming to take Konstantinovka logistics under fire control and encircle a Ukrainian grouping. A Ukrainian expert reportedly claimed the cutting of the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway from the northeast. Russian military blogger claims Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk but anticipate Ukrainian counterattacks. Ongoing combat is reported in Dyliyivka and towards Pleshcheyevka. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by various Russian Groups of Forces (Yug, Tsentr) in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel in multiple locations in Donetsk Oblast, including near Markovo, Predtechino, Minkovka, Grigorovka, Koptevo, Razino, Krasnoarmeysk, Grodovka, Petrovskogo, and Novaya Poltavka, with claimed significant Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses. Commemoration of the 2nd anniversary of the "liberation" of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) by a Russian military blogger highlights the strategic significance of this area. Ukrainian forces claimed elimination of Russian soldiers who filmed a fake video claiming to capture Vilne Pole. The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reports a resident of Dobropillia sentenced to 15 years for state treason for providing coordinates of Ukrainian military positions. Ukrainian military blogger releases a film on the Vuhledar battle. (Военкор Котенок, РБК-Україна, Басурин о главном, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, sashakots, ТАСС, MoD Russia, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Старше Эдды)
Sumy Oblast (Loknya, Yunakovka, Belovody, Maryino, Bunyakino, Ryzhevka, Atinskoye, Belopolye, Bessalovka): Affected by Russian claimed ground advances and cross-border activity. Russian sources claim their units are close to fully controlling Loknya and are about 200 meters from Yunakovka, also reporting battles for Belovody and claimed liberation of Maryino, linking these successes to Ukrainian evacuation announcements in 202 settlements. Russian sources report Ukrainian forces attempting to break through into Kursk Oblast from areas bordering Sumy, and Russian forces advancing in Loknya towards Yunakovka to expand the buffer zone. Russian forces are reportedly utilizing heavy weather (rain, fog) to their advantage as it hinders Ukrainian UAV use. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by the Sever Group of Forces in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel near Bunyakino, Ryzhevka, Atinskoye, Belopolye, and Bessalovka in Sumy region, with claimed Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses. A Ukrainian source clarifies a civilian's conviction here was for illegal weapons possession, not actions related to village defense. (Военкор Котенок, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia, РБК-Україна)
Kharkiv Oblast (Kharkiv direction, Kharkiv suburbs, Kupyansk, Sobolevka, Чугуївський район): Affected by Russian aerial and ground assaults. Russian FPV drones with RPG warheads are reportedly reaching Kharkiv suburbs. Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of a Ukrainian T-64 tank by FPV drone operators on the Kharkiv direction. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by the Zapad Group of Forces in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel near Kupyansk and Sobolevka, with claimed Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, MoD Russia)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Sudzha area, Краснооктябрьский, Волфино, Novy Put, Tetkino): Location of claimed Ukrainian attempts to break through and Russian counter-DRG operations. Russian sources claim Ukrainian DRGs supported by artillery attempted to penetrate Russian territory near Krasnooktyabrsky and Volfino overnight, and near Novy Put, which were reportedly repelled with Ukrainian losses, including some killed by mines. Russian drone operators are claimed to have destroyed a significant number of Ukrainian personnel. Russian sources are also highlighting alleged Ukrainian shelling of a hospital in Tetkino. (Басурин о главном)
Southern Donetsk Direction: Russian sources claim continued penetration of Ukrainian defenses, with specific claimed advances on the Shakhtyorsk direction (over 2 km in depth and up to 1.5 km along the front, clearing five treelines and occupying a height) and the Vremevsky direction (occupying buildings in the eastern part of Zelenoye Pole and clearing a treeline, advancing up to 500m; occupying buildings in the northeast of Novopol and clearing an adjacent treeline). Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked in these areas, which were repelled by Russian forces with claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment by FPV drones. Russian forces claim to have disrupted Ukrainian logistics and communications through systematic work by artillery and FPV drones in the Ukrainian rear. Russian sources claim Ukrainian confirmed losses over the past day on this direction include 5 units of equipment, a Starlink terminal, an EW station, a resupply point, and 42 UAVs. Russian military blogger discusses claimed Ukrainian command and control issues in this area. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by the Vostok Group of Forces in hitting Ukrainian manpower and hardware near Novoukrainka (Donetsk People's Republic), with claimed Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses. (Воин DV, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Gulyaypole, Chervonoye, Novoandreyevka): Affected by Russian attacks. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by the Vostok Group of Forces in hitting Ukrainian manpower and hardware near Gulyaypole and Chervonoye. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by the Dnepr Group of Forces in engaging Ukrainian formations near Novoandreyevka. (MoD Russia)
Kherson Oblast (Otradokamenka): Affected by Russian attacks. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by the Dnepr Group of Forces in engaging Ukrainian formations close to Otradokamenka. (MoD Russia)
Chernihiv Oblast: Affected by Russian artillery shelling from Russian territory. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Syria (Khmeimim airbase): Location of a reported attack on a Russian military base. (Военкор Котенок)
Netherlands (Den Helder): Location of a conference on Ukrainian military communications attended by Ukrainian representatives. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Russia (Moscow, Bryansk Oblast, Crimea, Belgorod Oblast, Voronezh, Khabarovsk Krai, Ufa, Naushki (Buryatia), Krasnodar, Novorossiysk, Kabardino-Balkaria, Bryanka (Luhansk Oblast - occupied), Saint Petersburg International Legal Forum): Internal issues, including legal proceedings, security concerns, recruitment, and propaganda efforts. Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing four JDAM guided bombs and 89 fixed-wing drones over the past day across various locations in Russia. Russian Ministry of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine since the start of the operation. Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping. A Russian official reports on reconstruction efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast. Dmitry Medvedev makes various political statements. Russian Deputy Justice Minister comments on the "foreign agent" law. Russian military blogger promotes a new film about the "Special Military Operation." (ТАСС, MoD Russia, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Полиция Хабаровского края, Рыбарь, Alex Parker Returns, AV БогомаZ, Военкор Котенок, Два майора, WarGonzo)
Baltic Sea: Location of a naval incident involving the detention of an oil tanker by Russia. Potential location of AIS spoofing activity. (ASTRA, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Mediterranean Sea: Location of a Russian missile carrier, with recorded missile launches. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Poland: Political developments related to the presidential election and a candidate's stance on Ukraine's NATO membership. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Czech Republic: Agreement with Ukraine on cooperation in F-16 pilot training and defense industry integration. (РБК-Україна)
Liberia: Flag state of the oil tanker detained by Russia. (ASTRA)
Greece: Nationality of the company owning the oil tanker detained by Russia. (ASTRA)
North Korea: Ukraine is pursuing international recognition as an aggressor state. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Finland: Location near potential AIS spoofing activity. (Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Romania: Domestic law enacted allowing the downing of illegal drones and military operations in peacetime. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Extremely high and widespread. Russian forces used an estimated 2904 kamikaze drones over the past day (previously reported). Ukrainian forces lost an estimated 118 operational-tactical level UAVs to Russian forces over the past day (previously reported). Russian FPV drones with RPG warheads are reportedly reaching Kharkiv suburbs. Ukrainian forces are claiming to use FPV drones for strikes on Russian police targets in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast. Russian sources claim Ukrainian confirmed losses on the Southern Donetsk direction include 42 UAVs (3 aircraft-type and 39 copter-type), and claim to have destroyed Ukrainian Starlink terminals and EW stations using FPV drones. Russian sources claim downing 89 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles over the past day. Russian drone operators are claimed to have destroyed a significant number of Ukrainian personnel during claimed Ukrainian attempts to break through in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces are reportedly utilizing heavy weather (rain, fog) to their advantage as it hinders Ukrainian UAV use. Russian Minister of Defense reports claimed successes in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel, likely involving drone use. Russian Minister of Defense reports claimed destruction of a Ukrainian T-64 tank by FPV drone operators on the Kharkiv direction. Russian Minister of Defense reports claimed destruction of a UAV production workshop. Russian Minister of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine since the start of the operation include 57,807 unmanned aerial vehicles. Russian Minister of Defense reports Russian Minister of Defense Belousov received reports on the use of modern UAVs. Ukrainian General Staff showcases intensive training of marksmen, which could involve countering drones. Ukrainian General Staff shares a video featuring an 18-year-old servicemember whose motivation includes "extinguishing the occupiers," implying combat activity that could involve drone use. Potential AIS spoofing activity near Finland could involve drones or other electronic means. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Воин DV, ТАСС, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia, Военкор Котенок, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense is actively engaged in countering Russian drone and missile attacks. Russian air defense is reportedly active in Russian border regions and occupied Crimea, and against Ukrainian drones and JDAMs. Russian sources claim to have repelled a Ukrainian air-dropped bomb strike near Novopol on the Southern Donetsk direction and destroyed Ukrainian UAVs over various locations in Russia. Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing four JDAM guided bombs and 89 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles over the past day. Russian Minister of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine since the start of the operation include 605 anti-aircraft missile systems. The newly enacted law in Romania allowing the downing of illegal drones and military operations on Romanian territory in peacetime is relevant to air defense in a neighboring country. (Воин DV, AV БогомаZ, ASTRA, ТАСС, MoD Russia, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 124 guided aerial bombs dropped by the aggressor over the past day (previously reported), and 16 guided bombs used on the Kursk direction (previously reported). Russian aviation conducted KAB strikes on Berestok, Zorya, Myrnohrad (Pokrovsk direction), and Piddubne and Tolstoy (Novopavlivka direction). Russian Minister of Defense claims downing four JDAM guided bombs over the past day. Russian Minister of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine since the start of the operation include 35 JDAM guided aerial bombs (cumulative figure over the week). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, MoD Russia)
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active in frontline and border areas, conducting strikes with guided aerial bombs and potentially other munitions. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 78 aviation strikes by the aggressor over the past day (previously reported), including air strikes on various locations. 8 aviation strikes were conducted on the Kursk direction (previously reported). Russian Minister of Defense reports claimed successes by various Russian Groups of Forces in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel, likely involving aviation. Russian Minister of Defense reports claimed engagement of military airfield facilities. Russian Ministry of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine since the start of the operation include 662 aircraft and 283 helicopters. Russian Minister of Defense reports Russian Minister of Defense Belousov received reports on the situation, implying ongoing aviation activity. Russian air force activity in the Barents Sea with Tu-95ms bombers is reported, indicating continued strategic air force presence. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, MoD Russia)
Naval Activity: No enemy warships or Kalibr missile carriers were detected in the Black or Azov Seas as of 06:00 on May 19, 2025 (previously reported). 3 enemy ships, including 1 Kalibr carrier with up to 8 missiles, are present in the Mediterranean Sea (previously reported). A naval incident involving the detention of a Liberian-flagged oil tanker by Russia in the Baltic Sea is reported. Potential AIS spoofing activity near Finland in the Baltic Sea is reported, suggesting unusual maritime activity in the region. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ASTRA, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Ballistic Missile Activity: A ballistic missile threat and strike have been reported in Shostka, Sumy Oblast (previously reported). (Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery fire from both sides. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 5134 shellings by the aggressor, including 116 from MLRS, over the past day (previously reported). 139 artillery shellings (including 3 MLRS) were conducted on the Kursk direction (previously reported). Ukrainian forces claim to have conducted missile strikes on a post office building in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast, where Russian military personnel were allegedly located. Russian forces claim to have disrupted Ukrainian logistics and communications on the Southern Donetsk direction through systematic work by artillery. Russian sources report Ukrainian forces attempting to break through into Kursk Oblast with support from artillery. Russian forces are reportedly using artillery in Sumy Oblast. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel, including artillery pieces and MLRS combat vehicles (cumulative figure). (Генеральний штаб ЗSU, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Diplomatic efforts continue, though significant differences persist in stated positions. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy discussed coordinated positions and potential platforms for negotiations with the Italian Prime Minister, emphasizing the need for a ceasefire and honest diplomacy. Russian sources claim Russian President Trump told Putin that Russia is preparing proposals for a ceasefire and asked Putin to present a "negotiable option" (previously reported). Medvedev stated that if Ukraine refuses peace, it will face a path to unconditional surrender and that the current Ukraine lacks individuals authorized to conclude a peace treaty. European and US participation in future direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations is reportedly being pushed for by the European Commission. A Russian military blogger comments on Medvedev's statement regarding Ukrainian authority to conclude a peace treaty, hinting at potential military means to "fix this problem." Speculation exists regarding potential pressure from (former) US President Trump on Russia concerning negotiations. (Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Два майора)
International Pressure: The EU has approved the 17th sanctions package against Russia (previously reported) and announced preparation for the 18th package focusing on energy and financial sectors (previously reported). Ukrainian President Zelenskyy thanked the President of the European Commission for the 17th package and discussed the 18th (previously reported). Ukraine is pursuing international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state. Dmitry Medvedev proposes a registry of colonial damage for developing countries, aimed at promoting an anti-Western narrative. Dmitry Medvedev states that the "coalition of the willing" aims to introduce an occupation regime in Ukraine and draw parties into a new, larger conflict, framing international support for Ukraine as aggression. The newly enacted law in Romania allowing the downing of illegal drones and military operations in peacetime is a measure taken by a NATO member potentially in response to regional security concerns. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, DeepState✙🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС)
Internal Russian Politics: Internal legal proceedings continue, including high-profile arrests and requests to extend arrests. Proposed law on banning charitable collections to personal cards is being discussed (previously reported). Discussions on rising Islamist entry into Russia are present (previously reported). Reports on Russian internal security efforts and recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service are present, with claimed numbers identified and sent to the front. A Russian official reports on reconstruction efforts in occupied territories (Bryanka). Dmitry Medvedev makes various political statements. Russian Deputy Justice Minister comments on the "foreign agent" law, emphasizing its broad interpretation. Russian military blogger promotes a new film about the "Special Military Operation," contributing to information operations. A candidate in the Polish presidential election expresses willingness to not support Ukraine's NATO membership, introducing a potential point of divergence within a key NATO/EU member state. (Север.Реалии, ТАСС, ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Рыбарь, Alex Parker Returns, AV БогомаZ, Военкор Котенок, Два майора, WarGonzo, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct and indirect diplomatic exchanges continue regarding potential negotiation frameworks and conditions. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy discussed potential platforms for negotiations with Russia with the Italian Prime Minister. Russian sources claim Russian President Trump told Putin that Russia is preparing proposals for a ceasefire (previously reported). Medvedev stated Russia's position on Ukraine's future without peace and the lack of authorized Ukrainian negotiators. European and US participation in future direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations is reportedly being pushed for. A Russian military blogger comments on Medvedev's statement regarding Ukrainian authority to conclude a peace treaty. Russian sources commemorate the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "liberation," framing it as a symbol of restoration in occupied territories. (Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Два майора, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, WarGonzo)
Ukraine-Netherlands Cooperation: Representatives of the Ukrainian Armed Forces participated in a conference on Ukrainian military communications hosted by the Royal Netherlands Navy, highlighting military cooperation and information sharing (previously reported). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
US-Ukraine Relations: Ukrainian GUR unit evacuated a damaged US-made M1224 MaxxPro armored vehicle from the Kupiansk direction (previously reported). Reports indicate potential US plans to deport Ukrainians (previously reported). Reports indicate surprise and disappointment among European leaders after a call between Trump and Putin regarding the lack of agreement on a ceasefire or new sanctions (previously reported). Speculation exists regarding potential pressure from (former) US President Trump on Russia concerning negotiations. Concerns are raised regarding future US military aid to Ukraine. (Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Trump-Putin Interaction: Russian sources claim Russian President Trump told Putin that Russia is preparing proposals for a ceasefire and asked Putin to present a "negotiable option" (previously reported). Reports indicate surprise and disappointment among European leaders after a call between Trump and Putin (previously reported). Speculation exists regarding potential pressure from (former) US President Trump on Russia concerning negotiations. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна)
EU Sanctions: The EU has approved the 17th sanctions package against Russia (previously reported) and announced preparation for the 18th package focusing on energy and financial sectors (previously reported). Ukrainian President Zelenskyy thanked the President of the European Commission for the 17th package and discussed the 18th (previously reported). (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, DeepState✙🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
UK Sanctions: DeepState reports that the UK has announced significant new sanctions against Russia (previously reported). (DeepState✙🇺🇦)
North Korea-Ukraine: Ukraine is pursuing international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state due to its military cooperation with Russia. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Poland: Political developments related to the presidential election and a candidate's stance on Ukraine's NATO membership, indicating a potential point of divergence within Polish political discourse regarding support for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Romania: A domestic law has been enacted allowing the downing of illegal drones and military operations on Romanian territory in peacetime. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Cultural Heritage Preservation (Ukraine): A domestic legal development regarding the return of a historical church to state ownership has occurred. (Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Illegal Border Crossing and Mobilization Evasion (Ukraine): Reports highlight significant challenges in preventing illegal border crossings and mobilization evasion, and potentially issues with the legal system's effectiveness in prosecuting such cases, along with unintended consequences of policy changes. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Judicial System (Ukraine): The Prosecutor General's Office reports a conviction for state treason in Donetsk Oblast. A Ukrainian source clarifies a civilian's conviction in Sumy Oblast was for illegal weapons possession. Reports highlight challenges with the legal system's effectiveness in prosecuting illegal border crossing and mobilization evasion cases. (Офіс Генерального прокурора, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Speculation on US Pressure on Russia: Speculation exists regarding potential pressure from (former) US President Trump on Russia concerning negotiations. (РБК-Україна)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Internal legal proceedings continue, including high-profile arrests and requests to extend arrests. Proposed law on banning charitable collections to personal cards is being discussed (previously reported). Discussions on rising Islamist entry into Russia are present (previously reported). Reports on Russian internal security efforts and recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service are present, with claimed numbers identified and sent to the front. Incident of violence by a convicted servicemember on leave is reported. Russian Deputy Justice Minister comments on the "foreign agent" law, emphasizing its broad interpretation. Reported attack on Khmeimim airbase in Syria (previously reported). (Север.Реалии, ТАСС, ASTRA, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Рыбарь, Alex Parker Returns, Военкор Котенок)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces claim systematic destruction of Ukrainian strongholds and advances in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Russian aviation is active in border regions. Russian forces are utilizing extensive aerial assets, particularly a large number of strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. Russian forces claim downing Ukrainian UAVs and JDAMs. Russian forces are actively engaged in ground combat across multiple fronts, including making claimed advances and disrupting Ukrainian logistics and communications with artillery and FPV drones. Russian soldier claims to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with hand (previously reported). Russian military blogger discusses claimed use of Russian "Albatros" reconnaissance drones (previously reported). Russian sources claim the use of FPV drones with RPG warheads in Kharkiv suburbs. Russian forces claim to have liberated Maryino in Sumy Oblast and are fighting for Belovody and advancing near Loknya and Yunakovka. A Russian military blogger discusses potential strategic implications of taking Bogatyr (previously reported). Russian Ministry of Defense claims downing four JDAM guided bombs and 89 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles over the past day across various locations in Russia. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed successes by various Russian Groups of Forces in hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel across multiple regions, providing claimed figures for Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses and destroyed ammunition depots. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destruction of a Ukrainian T-64 tank by FPV drone operators on the Kharkiv direction. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed engagement of military airfield facilities and a UAV production workshop. Russian Ministry of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine since the start of the operation across various categories of equipment and personnel. Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping and receives reports on the use of modern UAVs. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces attempting to break through into Kursk Oblast were repelled with losses, including some killed by mines. Russian drone operators are claimed to have destroyed a significant number of Ukrainian personnel during claimed Ukrainian attempts to break through in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces are reportedly continuing to advance in Loknya towards Yunakovka in Sumy Oblast to expand the buffer zone. Russian military blogger claims Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk but anticipate Ukrainian counterattacks. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Воин DV, Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Басурин о главном, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Fighterbomber, Alex Parker Returns, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Рыбарь, ASTRA, Военкор Котенок, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, sashakots, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора)
Casualties: Civilian casualties reported in Sumy Oblast due to a ballistic missile strike (previously reported). Claims of civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast within a Russian information operation (previously reported). Reports of Russian military casualties in an attack on Khmeimim airbase in Syria (previously reported). Reports of Ukrainian personnel losses on the Southern Donetsk direction according to Russian sources (previously reported). Claims of significant Ukrainian losses in Sumy Oblast by Russian sources. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed Ukrainian personnel losses across various Groups of Forces over the past day. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces attempting to break through into Kursk Oblast were repelled with losses, including some killed by mines and a significant number destroyed by drone operators. (Николаевский Ванёк, Басурин о главном, Военкор Котенок, Воин DV, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, MoD Russia, Два майора)
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources continue to promote narratives of military success and criticize Ukrainian actions, including claimed advances, the commemoration of the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "liberation," and highlighting internal incidents. Medvedev's statement on Ukraine's path to unconditional surrender and lack of authorized negotiators is part of this. Russian sources claim to be disrupting Ukrainian logistics and communications. Russian military blogger discusses claimed use of Russian "Albatros" reconnaissance drones (previously reported). Russian sources claim the use of FPV drones with RPG warheads in Kharkiv suburbs. Russian sources claim to have liberated Maryino and are fighting for Belovody and advancing near Loknya and Yunakovka in Sumy Oblast, linking this to Ukrainian evacuation announcements. A Russian military blogger discusses potential strategic implications of taking Bogatyr (previously reported). Russian sources discuss internal issues like migration and radicalism. Russian Minister of Defense reports on claimed operational progress and Ukrainian losses, which serves as a major information operation. WarGonzo promotes a new film about the "Special Military Operation" and the battle for Mariupol, utilizing personal narratives. Russian military blogger comments on Medvedev's statement regarding Ukrainian authority to conclude a peace treaty, hinting at potential military means. Commemoration of Mariupol's "liberation" is reinforced by Russian sources. (Воин DV, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, Рыбарь, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Басурин о главном, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Alex Parker Returns, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Fighterbomber, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, sashakots, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, WarGonzo, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Старше Эдды)
Judicial System: Internal legal proceedings against individuals continue, including high-profile arrests and requests to extend arrests. Proposed law on banning charitable collections to personal cards is being discussed in the State Duma (previously reported). Russian Deputy Justice Minister comments on the "foreign agent" law, emphasizing its broad interpretation. (Север.Реалии, ТАСС, ASTRA, Рыбарь, Alex Parker Returns)
Social Policy: Proposed law on banning charitable collections to personal cards is being discussed in the State Duma (previously reported). Discussions on migration policies and rising Islamist entry into Russia are present (previously reported). Reports on Russian internal security efforts and recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service are present. (Север.Реалии, Рыбарь, Alex Parker Returns, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, ASTRA)
Military Recruitment: Reports on Russian internal security efforts and recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service, with claims of 80,000 identified and 20,000 sent to the front. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, Рыбарь, ASTRA)
Reconstruction Efforts in Occupied Territories: Russian sources commemorate the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "liberation" and state the intention to rebuild it, highlighting reconstruction efforts in occupied territories. Reports on recovery and modernization efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast are present. (Colonelcassad, AV БогомаZ, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Incident in Syria: Reported attack on Khmeimim airbase (previously reported). (Военкор Котенок)
Military Inspection: Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping. (ТАСС)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): International military aid continues, including the confirmed shipment of Abrams tanks from Australia (previously reported). Fundraising for FPV drones is ongoing. Ukraine is actively engaged in defense and counter-drone operations. Ukrainian GUR unit evacuated a damaged US-made armored vehicle from the Kupiansk direction (previously reported). Ukrainian representatives participated in a conference on Ukrainian military communications in the Netherlands (previously reported). Ukraine is pursuing international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state, potentially impacting military cooperation with Russia. Ukraine and the Czech Republic have agreed to cooperate on the training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots and strengthen defense industry integration. Concerns are raised regarding future US military aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian General Staff showcases intensive training of marksmen. Ukrainian General Staff shares a video featuring an 18-year-old servicemember who joined the military. (STERNENKO, Николаевский Ванёк, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
Military Support (Russia): Russian forces are actively engaged in ground combat and utilizing extensive aerial assets, artillery, and potentially MLRS, indicating ongoing military support for their operations. Proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support (previously reported). Fundraising for equipment is ongoing (previously reported). Reports on Russian internal security efforts and recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service, with claims of 80,000 identified and 20,000 sent to the front. Reports on recovery and modernization efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast are present. Russian Ministry of Defense reports on claimed operational progress and Ukrainian losses, implying ongoing Russian military capabilities and support. Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping. A Russian military blogger reports on a rifle used in combat, acquired with reader support, highlighting reliance on public support for equipment. (Воин DV, Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, Рыбарь, ASTRA, AV БогомаZ, MoD Russia)
Civilian Support (Ukraine): Civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure reported due to Russian strikes (previously reported). Evacuation announcements in Sumy Oblast are present. Commemoration of fallen defenders and historical events (previously reported). Support from regional administrations (previously reported). Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration and UNDP held a meeting and UNDP provided vehicles for palliative care (previously reported). A Ukrainian source clarifies a civilian's conviction in Sumy Oblast was for illegal weapons possession. (Николаевский Ванёк, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Басурин о главном, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, РБК-Україна)
Civilian Support (Russia): Civilian casualties reported in Belgorod Oblast due to claimed Ukrainian drone attack (previously reported). Claims of civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast within a Russian information operation (previously reported). Proposed law on banning charitable collections to personal cards is being discussed, potentially impacting civilian support efforts (previously reported). Reports on reconstruction efforts in occupied territories are present. (Север.Реалии, AV БогомаZ)
Support for Military Personnel (Russia): Proposed law on increasing pensions for dependents (previously reported). Proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support (previously reported). Fundraising for equipment is ongoing (previously reported). Reports on recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service are present. A Russian military blogger reports on a rifle used in combat, acquired with reader support. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, Рыбарь, ASTRA, Colonelcassad)
Humanitarian Support: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration and UNDP held a meeting and UNDP provided vehicles for palliative care (previously reported). (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Reconstruction: Reports on recovery and modernization efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast, including repair of infrastructure and social objects are present. Russian sources commemorate the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "liberation" and state the intention to rebuild it, highlighting reconstruction efforts in occupied territories. (AV БогомаZ, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Medical Support: UNDP provided two vehicles for palliative care to city hospitals in Zaporizhzhia (previously reported). (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Judicial System (Ukraine): A Ukrainian source clarifies a civilian's conviction in Sumy Oblast was for illegal weapons possession, which can impact the narrative around civilian involvement in the conflict. (РБК-Україна)
Illegal Border Crossing and Mobilization Evasion (Ukraine): Reports highlight significant challenges in preventing illegal border crossings and mobilization evasion, and potentially issues with the legal system's effectiveness in prosecuting such cases, along with unintended consequences of policy changes. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Cultural Heritage Preservation (Ukraine): A domestic legal development regarding the return of a historical church to state ownership has occurred, highlighting efforts to preserve cultural heritage during the conflict. (Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Military Training (Ukraine): Ukrainian General Staff showcases intensive training of marksmen, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance military capabilities. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Recruitment (Ukraine): Ukrainian General Staff shares a video featuring an 18-year-old servicemember who joined the military, serving as a recruitment effort. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Commemoration (Ukraine): The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration commemorates the 3rd anniversary of the last defenders of Azovstal leaving the plant and highlights the plight of those still in captivity, serving as a form of commemoration and advocacy for prisoners of war. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukraine: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults and a large-scale drone and artillery attack across multiple fronts and oblasts. Engaging Russian aerial targets with air defense systems, with successful engagements reported. Inflicting claimed significant personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces according to Russian sources. Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian aerial and artillery attacks. Repelling Russian assaults. Evacuated a damaged US-made armored vehicle from the Kupiansk direction (previously reported). Claiming strikes on Russian military and police targets in Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian representatives participated in a conference on Ukrainian military communications (previously reported). Ukraine is pursuing international recognition of North Korea as an aggressor state. Ukraine and the Czech Republic have agreed to cooperate on the training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots and strengthen defense industry integration. Ukrainian forces are reportedly "exhausting" the enemy along the entire front and in the rear. Concerns are raised regarding future US military aid. Reports highlight challenges with illegal border crossing and mobilization evasion. Ukrainian General Staff showcases intensive training of marksmen. Ukrainian General Staff shares a video featuring an 18-year-old servicemember who joined the military. Ukrainian military blogger releases a film on the Vuhledar battle. Ukrainian military blogger claims Ukrainian forces are preparing for counterattack actions in the Toretsk area, evidenced by increased strikes on Russian rear areas and the detection of armored vehicles. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Басурин о главном, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Воин DV, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Два майора, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults, claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements on multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Utilizing extensive aerial assets, including a large number of strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), and a variety of other drones and artillery. Employing FPV drones, including some with RPG warheads in Kharkiv suburbs. Engaging in extensive information operations and propaganda. Claiming downing of Ukrainian UAVs and JDAMs. Actively engaged in ground combat across multiple fronts, including making claimed advances and disrupting Ukrainian logistics and communications with artillery and FPV drones. Claiming recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service. Experiencing reported attacks on military bases (Syria - previously reported). Claiming to have repelled Ukrainian attempts to break through in Kursk Oblast with losses for Ukraine, including some killed by mines and a significant number destroyed by drone operators. Russian Minister of Defense reports on claimed operational progress and Ukrainian losses. Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping and receives reports on the use of modern UAVs. Russian military blogger claims Russian forces have "practically cleared" Toretsk but anticipate Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian military blogger discusses claimed Ukrainian command and control issues on the Southern Donetsk direction (previously reported). Russian forces are reportedly utilizing heavy weather (rain, fog) to their advantage as it hinders Ukrainian UAV use. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Воин DV, Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Басурин о главном, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Fighterbomber, Alex Parker Returns, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Рыбарь, ASTRA, Военкор Котенок, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, sashakots, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора)
Third-Party Involvement: Diplomatic activities involving Italy, the US, the European Commission, and potentially Turkey continue. European leaders are engaging in discussions related to the conflict and potential negotiations. The Netherlands is hosting a conference on Ukrainian military communications (previously reported). Reports of an attack on a Russian airbase in Syria involving individuals of Uzbek origin (previously reported). UNDP is providing humanitarian support in Zaporizhzhia (previously reported). The Czech Republic is cooperating with Ukraine on F-16 pilot training and defense industry integration. A candidate in the Polish presidential election expresses willingness to not support Ukraine's NATO membership. Romania has enacted a law allowing the downing of illegal drones and military operations in peacetime. Potential AIS spoofing activity near Finland. (Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Военкор Котенок, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of drones by both sides (strike, reconnaissance, FPV, "Baba Yaga," aircraft-type, copter-type, with RPG warheads) by both sides. Employment of guided aerial bombs (KABs), artillery, MLRS, and potentially missiles. Use of armored vehicles (M-113, Senator, M1224 MaxxPro), likely tanks and motorcycles in assaults (previously reported). Ukrainian forces are evacuating damaged Western-supplied equipment (previously reported). Russian forces are claiming to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and communications with artillery and FPV drones. Russian air defense claimed to have shot down JDAM guided bombs. Ukrainian forces claim strikes on Russian police vehicle boxes with FPV drones. Russian forces are reportedly utilizing heavy weather (rain, fog) to their advantage to hinder Ukrainian UAVs. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces attempting to break through into Kursk Oblast used DRGs and artillery and suffered losses from mines and drone operators. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed Ukrainian personnel and equipment losses, including tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and artillery pieces. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destruction of a Ukrainian T-64 tank by FPV drone operators. Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed engagement of military airfield facilities and a UAV production workshop. Russian Minister of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine across various categories of equipment. Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping and receives reports on the use of modern UAVs. A Russian military blogger reports on a rifle used in combat, acquired with reader support. Ukrainian General Staff showcases intensive training of marksmen. Ukrainian military blogger claims Ukrainian forces are preparing for counterattack actions in the Toretsk area and are using armored vehicles. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, Воин DV, ТАСС, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Военкор Котенок, MoD Russia, Басурин о главном, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/ТIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Colonelcassad)
Russian Military Personnel: Reports on recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service, with claims of 80,000 identified and 20,000 sent to the front. Incident of criminal activity by a servicemember on leave is reported. Claims of Ukrainian personnel losses by Russian sources. Claims of significant losses among Ukrainian forces in Sumy Oblast by Russian sources. A Russian soldier reportedly claimed to repel a Ukrainian drone with his hand (previously reported). Reports of Russian military casualties in an attack on Khmeimim airbase in Syria (previously reported). Russian Minister of Defense reports claimed Ukrainian personnel losses across various Groups of Forces over the past day. Russian Minister of Defense reports cumulative claimed losses for Ukraine in personnel. Russian Minister of Defense inspects the "Center" grouping. A Russian military blogger reports on a rifle used in combat, acquired with reader support. Russian military blogger discusses claimed Ukrainian command and control issues on the Southern Donetsk direction, including Ukrainian units getting captured (previously reported). Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces attempting to break through into Kursk Oblast were repelled with losses, including some killed by mines and a significant number destroyed by drone operators, and some taken prisoner. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, Рыбарь, ASTRA, Воин DV, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Военкор Котенок, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Басурин о главном, Два майора)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued intensity of ground combat across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, with reported Russian advances on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions (high numbers of engagements) and Russian sources claiming tactical control of Toretsk while anticipating Ukrainian counterattacks, along with a Ukrainian expert claiming the cutting of the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway, is a critical strategic development. These actions indicate Russia's persistent strategic objective of gaining ground in eastern Ukraine and potentially encircling or threatening key Ukrainian groupings. The claimed advances and highway cut, if confirmed, represent significant tactical gains with potential strategic implications for logistics and troop positioning. Ukrainian defense and counterattacks, as reported by the General Staff (previously reported) and Russian sources (Southern Donetsk, Toretsk), are strategically crucial for preventing Russian breakthroughs and inflicting attrition. The Ukrainian General Staff's detailed report on combat engagements by direction (previously reported) is essential for assessing the overall strategic picture. Russian Ministry of Defense reports on claimed successes across various Groups of Forces underscore the strategic focus on degrading Ukrainian forces. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Воин DV, Colonelcassad, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, sashakots, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
The large-scale Russian aerial and artillery campaign across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, including the reported ballistic missile strike in Sumy Oblast (previously reported), the widespread use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) on frontline areas, and the claimed use of FPV drones with RPG warheads in Kharkiv suburbs, highlights Russia's strategic approach of degrading Ukrainian infrastructure and military capabilities while also impacting civilian areas. The reported use of FPV drones with RPG warheads in Kharkiv suburbs indicates an adaptation in Russian tactics to target urban and suburban environments, posing an increased threat to both military and civilian targets. The Ukrainian General Staff's report on the scale of Russian aerial and artillery activity (previously reported) is a key strategic indicator. Russian Ministry of Defense reporting on claimed downing of Ukrainian aerial assets and targeting of military facilities indicates a strategic focus on air superiority and degrading Ukrainian capabilities. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Воин DV, ТАСС, MoD Russia)
The reported Russian claims of advances and liberation of settlements in Sumy Oblast (Maryino, Loknya) and ongoing battles for Belovody and near Yunakovka, along with Russian forces continuing to advance in Loknya towards Yunakovka to expand the buffer zone, are strategically significant as they indicate Russian ground pressure in border regions outside of the main Donbas front. If these claims are verified, they could represent Russian efforts to create buffer zones, divert Ukrainian resources, or open new axes of advance. The link made by Russian sources between these claimed advances and Ukrainian evacuation announcements in Sumy Oblast reinforces the narrative of Russian success and its impact on the civilian population. The Russian Ministry of Defense reporting on claimed successes by the Sever Group of Forces in Sumy region further emphasizes this strategic direction. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Alex Parker Returns, Басурин о главном, MoD Russia, Военкор Котенок)
The ongoing diplomatic discussions, including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's engagement with European leaders, the reported Trump-Putin conversation (previously reported), and the push for European and US participation in future Russia-Ukraine negotiations, underscore the continued strategic efforts to find a diplomatic resolution or leverage international support. The differing perspectives on negotiations, with Ukraine emphasizing a ceasefire and honest diplomacy and Russia stating a path to unconditional surrender without peace and the lack of authorized Ukrainian negotiators, highlight the significant gap between the parties and the challenges of achieving a diplomatic breakthrough. The discussion of the 18th EU sanctions package (previously reported) indicates continued strategic economic pressure on Russia. Speculation exists regarding potential pressure from (former) US President Trump on Russia concerning negotiations, introducing a new layer of uncertainty into the diplomatic landscape. (Zelenskiy / Official, Zelenskiy / Official, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, Два майора)
The reported Russian military claims of disrupting Ukrainian logistics and communications on the Southern Donetsk direction through systematic use of artillery and FPV drones (previously reported) are strategically relevant. Targeting these critical support functions is aimed at degrading Ukraine's ability to sustain combat operations effectively in the area. Claims of destroying Starlink terminals and EW stations (previously reported) highlight the strategic importance of these specific assets. Russian Ministry of Defense reports on claimed successes across various Groups of Forces, including hitting Ukrainian manpower and materiel, further indicate a strategic focus on degrading Ukrainian capabilities. (Воин DV, MoD Russia)
The reports on Russian internal security efforts, including the identification and recruitment of naturalized citizens for military service, with claims of 80,000 identified and 20,000 sent to the front, are strategically significant for understanding Russia's efforts to maintain its manpower pool for the conflict. The reported numbers, if accurate, indicate a reliance on this demographic to fill military ranks. Discussions on crime rates among migrants and rising Islamist entry (previously reported) also highlight internal stability concerns for the Russian government. Russian Ministry of Defense reporting on claimed Ukrainian personnel losses also relates to the strategic balance of forces. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, Рыбарь, ASTRA, MoD Russia)
The Ukrainian GUR unit's evacuation of a damaged US-made M1224 MaxxPro armored vehicle from the Kupiansk direction (previously reported) highlights the strategic importance of logistics, maintenance, and recovery of military equipment, particularly valuable Western-supplied assets. The ability to recover and repair damaged vehicles contributes to maintaining overall force strength and operational capability. (Николаевский Ванёк)
The commemoration of the 3rd anniversary of Mariupol's "liberation" and the stated intention to rebuild it by Russian sources (previously reported), reinforced by new reports highlighting the city as a symbol of restoration in "liberated regions" and showcasing historical and recent footage, is a significant propaganda effort with strategic objectives. This aims to highlight a key Russian military success, normalize Russian control over occupied territories, and portray a narrative of reconstruction and return to normalcy under Russian rule. Reports on reconstruction efforts in Bryanka, Luhansk Oblast are present, serving a similar strategic purpose. (Colonelcassad, AV БогомаZ, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, WarGonzo)
The participation of Ukrainian military representatives in a conference on Ukrainian military communications in the Netherlands (previously reported) is strategically relevant. This highlights Ukraine's focus on strategic communication, countering Russian propaganda, and engaging with international partners to shape narratives and maintain support. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
The proposed law in the Russian State Duma to ban charitable collections on personal cards (previously reported), while framed as combating fraud, could have strategic implications by potentially impacting volunteer networks that provide support for various causes, including potentially those related to the conflict or humanitarian aid. (Север.Реалии)
The reported attack on the Russian Khmeimim airbase in Syria (previously reported) is strategically relevant as it highlights potential security challenges for Russia in areas where it maintains a military presence outside of Ukraine. It also underscores the involvement of various actors and the complex security landscape in the Middle East. (Военкор Котенок)
The Ukrainian General Staff's comprehensive operational update (as of 16:00) providing detailed numbers of combat engagements, Russian strikes (artillery, aviation, KABs, MLRS), and locations of activity across multiple fronts (previously reported) offers a crucial strategic overview of the current situation. This data is vital for assessing the intensity of fighting in different sectors, identifying Russian operational priorities, and informing strategic resource allocation and planning. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
UNDP providing vehicles for palliative care in Zaporizhzhia (previously reported) highlights ongoing international humanitarian support and efforts to address civilian needs in conflict-affected areas. This is strategically important for maintaining civilian well-being and stability in the region. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Ukraine and the Czech Republic agreeing to cooperate on F-16 pilot training and strengthen defense industry integration is a strategic development for enhancing Ukraine's aerial capabilities and long-term defense production with international support. (РБК-Україна)
The newly enacted law in Romania allowing the downing of illegal drones and military operations on Romanian territory in peacetime is strategically relevant for regional security in a NATO member country bordering Ukraine. This indicates a proactive approach to addressing potential threats emanating from the conflict. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Reports highlighting significant challenges in preventing illegal border crossings and mobilization evasion in Ukraine are strategically important as they relate to manpower availability and internal security. The reported statistics and issues with prosecution indicate potential vulnerabilities in the mobilization process and the need for enhanced border control measures. The unintended consequences of policy changes, like the closure of the "Shlyakh" program, also have strategic implications for logistical support for the military. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Два майора)
Ukrainian General Staff showcasing intensive training of marksmen is strategically relevant as it indicates ongoing efforts to enhance specialized military capabilities, which are crucial for tactical effectiveness and can contribute to the overall strategic defense. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Ukrainian General Staff sharing a video featuring an 18-year-old servicemember is a strategic communication effort aimed at recruitment and bolstering morale by highlighting the motivations of young soldiers and promoting a narrative of patriotic defense. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
A Ukrainian source clarifying a civilian's conviction in Sumy Oblast was for illegal weapons possession, not for actions related to defending a village by mining a road, provides a different perspective on a previously reported event and highlights the importance of accurate information in the contested information environment. (РБК-Україна)
A candidate in the Polish presidential election expressing willingness to not support Ukraine's NATO membership is a politically significant development that could have strategic implications for regional security and alliances, depending on the outcome of the election. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russian Minister of Defense inspecting the "Center" grouping and receiving reports on UAVs indicates ongoing high-level command oversight and a strategic focus on the effective use of drones in military operations. (ТАСС)
Potential AIS spoofing activity near Finland in the Baltic Sea is strategically relevant as it suggests the use of electronic warfare tactics in a key maritime region, potentially aimed at confusing surveillance or obscuring actual vessel movements. (Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report