Sitrep 2025-05-20 07:30:13

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 20, 2025, 07:28 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be characterized by intense ground combat across multiple directions, particularly in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and now also with reported activity in Sumy Oblasts and border regions of Kursk Oblast. A persistent and geographically extensive Russian aerial offensive employing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs) continues to impact numerous Ukrainian oblasts. Diplomatic maneuvering remains intertwined with conflicting military signals, notably concerning potential negotiations and the role of international actors, with recent commentary on the implications of the Trump-Putin conversation. Ukraine continues to report significant losses inflicted on Russian forces and highlight their defensive capabilities and the effective use of drone technology. Russia persists in asserting tactical gains, reporting successful engagements and equipment destruction, and engaging in comprehensive information operations to shape narratives. Internal Russian issues, encompassing military personnel support, legal proceedings, infrastructure concerns, and social initiatives, are also reported, alongside continued international events and developments.

Significant new updates from the latest messages include:

Continued Intense Ground Combat and Tactical Claims: Russian sources continue to report significant tactical advances and claimed successes. Mash на Донбассе reports a Russian assault soldier survived a head wound sustained on the Artemivsk direction, highlighting the intensity of fighting there. Военкор Котенок reports that Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage groups, supported by artillery, attempted to enter Kursk Oblast near Krasnooktyabrsky and Volfino overnight but reportedly withdrew with losses. Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Nova Kruhliakivka. These reports indicate continued ground engagements across multiple sectors and attempts at cross-border actions.
Widespread and Persistent Russian Drone Attacks with Civilian Impact: The Ukrainian Air Force and ASTRA confirmed a massive overnight Russian drone attack involving 108 UAVs, with 93 neutralized (35 by fire, 58 by EW), impacting Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Further reports detail Russian drone attacks in the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities in Sumy Oblast and KAB strikes on the Yunakivka community, causing damage, including the destruction of two residential buildings, but reportedly no casualties in these specific overnight incidents. ASTRA also reports two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city, with the Kherson Military Administration confirming the attack and the injuries and noting route changes due to high drone activity. STERNENKO also reports on this bus attack. The number of injured in the Kherson bus attack has increased to 5, according to РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ, with the Office of the Prosecutor General initiating a criminal proceeding covering both the drone attack on the bus and subsequent artillery shelling which injured another five people in the Korabelnyi district, resulting in a total of 10 injured civilians in Kherson today. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report over 500 kamikaze drone strikes and around 200 drone drops in the South over the past day, highlighting the sheer volume of loitering munition and small drone activity. Russian sources claim the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones in the special operation zone and showcase claimed FPV drone combat work. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video showing Russian soldiers encountering Ukrainian FPV drones during a movement, highlighting the pervasive threat of these systems. WarGonzo advises soldiers to update their drone detectors, emphasizing the ongoing electronic warfare environment. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces shot down a Lancet drone.
Diplomatic Commentary and International Perceptions: ТАСС, citing the Financial Times, reports that European officials view the recent Putin-Trump conversation as a major victory for the Russian leader, stating that Trump is "stepping aside" and that the burden of supporting Ukraine and pressuring Russia is now on Europe. This suggests a perception among some European officials that the conversation weakened the united front against Russia. ТАСС also reports on Konstantin Kosachev's statement that Trump has recognized Russia as an equal subject of international relations, while Kyiv has been turned into an "object" and "instrument" for achieving foreign geopolitical goals. These statements highlight Russian efforts to interpret and leverage high-level diplomatic contacts to portray a shift in international dynamics in their favor. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video of Trump with commentary, potentially for informational or propaganda purposes. Alex Parker Returns shares a message from Arestovich indicating a shift away from military fundraising towards humanitarian collections, which could be interpreted in various ways regarding the focus of Ukrainian support efforts.
Internal Russian Military and Social Issues: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, and АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА report on a scandal in Vologda Oblast involving the daughter of a district head allegedly threatening to send people to the "SVO", highlighting potential public perception issues and the impact of the conflict on domestic society and potentially abuses of power related to mobilization. Два майора also shares a video on this scandal. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the "Day of Veterans of the Armed Forces" in Russia, emphasizing service and duty, which is a form of military commemoration and morale-building. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a spate of distant fraud cases in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, including schemes using "safe accounts" and targeting minors, resulting in significant financial losses, highlighting internal law enforcement issues and the impact of cybercrime, potentially exacerbated by the conflict environment. AV БогомаZ shares a report from "Russia 24" highlighting the work of Russian farmers in difficult conditions, framed as contributing to the country's development, which is a form of internal propaganda aimed at bolstering national unity and resilience.
Ukrainian Military Training and Fundraising: Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України share a video of night assault training by soldiers of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, emphasizing the use of night vision devices, thermal drones, communication, interaction with UAVs and EW, fire support, and tactical medicine, highlighting ongoing efforts to enhance combat capabilities. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos and text about infantry training exercises for the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade, focusing on assaulting trenches, teamwork, and maintaining life, further emphasizing Ukrainian training efforts. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for the repair, restoration, maintenance, and purchase of new FPV and Mavic drones, emphasizing their importance for reconnaissance, targeting, and saving lives. They also hint at something brewing internally within the brigade, potentially related to operational plans or unit developments. РБК-Україна reports that a unit of the "Rubizh" brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine is fundraising for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment, highlighting the material costs of the conflict and the need for support for units on the front lines. Два майора is fundraising for transport and equipment (REB complexes, thermal sights, signal amplifiers, drone detectors) for fighters of the 3rd Motor Rifle Division on the Krasnolimanskoye direction, highlighting the needs of Russian units.
Civilian Impact and War Crimes Investigation: The Office of the Prosecutor General's initiation of a pre-trial investigation into the previous day's bus attack near Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast as a war crime, now confirmed to have resulted in 9 fatalities and 4 injuries, remains a significant humanitarian and legal development. New reports confirm two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city, with the Kherson Military Administration confirming the attack and noting route changes due to high drone activity. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling of the Korabelnyi district of Kherson, hitting a multi-story building and injuring two civilians. РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack has increased to 5. The Office of the Prosecutor General reports a total of 10 injured civilians in Kherson today from the drone attack on the bus and subsequent artillery shelling and has initiated a criminal proceeding for violation of the laws and customs of war. РБК-Україна and Сумська ОВА report on the Russian drone and KAB attacks on the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities in Sumy Oblast, causing damage to a civilian object (large fire) and destroying two residential buildings.
Russian Military Equipment Development and Use: Russian sources highlight the claimed destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones and showcase claimed FPV drone combat work. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of a variety of Russian equipment including artillery systems, vehicles, UAVs, EW stations, a motorcycle, quad bikes, a ground drone, boats, a buggy, a generator, and antennas. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces shot down a Lancet drone. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video claiming Ukrainian border guard drone operations on the Kursk direction destroyed a Russian artillery piece, communication antenna, and two quad bikes. MoD Russia shares a video of a mortar crew targeting Ukrainian positions on the Orekhov direction, claiming to have hit a Ukrainian UAV control point after receiving targeting data from reconnaissance, highlighting the combined use of reconnaissance and artillery.
Ukrainian Civilian Resistance and Support: The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration shares a video message commemorating the daily minute of silence for those who died in the war. The Kyiv City Military Administration commemorates the death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko, who died near Bakhmut in May 2023, highlighting his service in the Territorial Defense and his character.
International Financial Support: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission has started its work in Kyiv to discuss the eighth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the European Union is expected to adopt the 17th package of sanctions against Russia today, targeting the "shadow fleet" and energy trade revenues, which is a significant development in international economic pressure on Russia.
Information Warfare and Propaganda: Both Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to utilize information operations. Ukrainian sources are commemorating fallen soldiers and key battles (Mariupol), highlighting training efforts, and fundraising. Russian sources are promoting claimed military successes and advancements (drone destruction, tactical gains, use of thermobaric systems), attempting to influence narratives around negotiations and European political shifts, and reporting on domestic incidents. ASTRA is promoting its VPN service as a way to bypass censorship in Russia. A Russian military blogger uses a historical quote to promote their channel. TASS reports on a domestic incident in the US involving a Russian hockey player. TASS reports on a scam targeting graduates using "Gosuslugi" accounts. A Russian military blogger comments on the rise of right-wing parties in Europe and links it to dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine. Alex Parker Returns shares a headline from Ukrainian media about Russia allegedly recruiting "pirates and jungle dwellers," which is likely a piece of Ukrainian information operations. ТАСС shares commentary from European officials and Konstantin Kosachev on the Trump-Putin conversation, framing it as a victory for Russia. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Ukrainian soldiers are evading capture in Kursk Oblast by disguising themselves as civilians, which is a Russian information operation. Два майора shares a video and text criticizing the mobilization process in Ukraine and promoting fundraising for Russian forces. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video of Russian soldiers encountering Ukrainian FPV drones. Mash на Донбассе shares a video about a Russian soldier surviving a head wound. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video from the GUR unit "Bratstvo" showcasing combat work, likely for morale and public relations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 commemorates "Veterans Day" in Russia, highlighting service and patriotism. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on claimed desertions and scandals within a Ukrainian brigade ("French miracle"), which is a Russian information operation. Два майора promotes fundraising for Russian forces and links military successes to diplomatic strength. Alex Parker Returns shares a message from Arestovich related to fundraising, which could be interpreted as a shift in Ukrainian support strategy. Сливочный каприз reports on combat in the Borova area and targeting of Ukrainian vehicles, likely for a Russian audience. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video claiming Ukrainian border guard actions in Kursk Oblast, including destruction of Russian assets. Военкор Котенок reports on Ukrainian attempts to enter Kursk Oblast and Russian defense actions. РБК-Україна reports on the expected EU sanctions, which has strategic implications for economic pressure. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a wounded Russian soldier attempting suicide, which, while graphic, could be used to highlight the psychological toll of the war. РБК-Україна and Сумська ОВА report on Russian strikes on Sumy Oblast. Два майора shares a satirical video related to Zelenskyy. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides a Ukrainian operational update and casualty figures for the Kharkiv sector. ТАСС reports on Ukrainian losses in Sumy Oblast according to Russian sources.
US Nuclear Modernization: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the US has assembled the first of a series of new B61-13 guided nuclear bombs, noting it as the first tactical nuclear KAB designed to hit hardened underground targets. This is a significant development in US nuclear capabilities.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Bakhmutskyi district, Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, Pokrovsk direction, South-Donetsk direction, Bogatyr, Otradnoye, Novoukrainka, Zelenyy Kut, Novodanylivka, Robotyne, Siversk direction, Verkhnokamyenske, Chubarovsky Pond, Dzerzhinsk, Konstantinovka, Myroliubivka, Stara Mykolaivka, Romanivka, Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration, Novoekonomicheskoe, Mirnograd, Lysychansk direction, Artemivsk direction): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. The death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko near Ivanivske (Bakhmutskyi district) in May 2023 is commemorated. Russian sources are reporting significant tactical advances on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions, including the liberation of Bogatyr, advances near Otradnoye, Novoukrainka, Zelenyy Kut, Novodanylivka, and the use of TOS-1A thermobaric systems against a fortified stronghold. They also claim the elimination of foreign mercenaries and capture of British and Canadian prisoners in Novodanylivka, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point in Kushugum, and repelling a counterattack near Robotyne with destruction of Bradley IFVs. Artillery strikes have reportedly destroyed Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter. Russian military bloggers highlight claimed advances and the difficulties for Ukrainian forces on the South-Donetsk direction and report on the Siversk direction, claiming advances towards Siversk and near Verkhnekamyenske, and destruction of Ukrainian EW stations, communication nodes, and UAV control points. Intense fighting continues across multiple directions as reported in previous updates. Affected by the overnight Russian aerial assault with 108 UAVs. ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack impacted Donetsk Oblast. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones on the South-Donetsk direction near Otradnoye, Novoukrainka, and Zelenyy Kut, destroying over 10 vehicles. Colonelcassad reports on the liberation of Bogatyr in the DNR on Sunday and continued Russian advances on the South-Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems against a fortified Ukrainian stronghold on the South-Donetsk direction and mentions the loss of Bogatyr for Ukraine. Рыбарь's morning summary mentions ongoing intense fighting in Donetsk Oblast, particularly on the Konstantinovka direction (encircling a large pocket near Aleksandropol - Stara Mykolaivka - Romanivka), the Pokrovsk direction (battling for Myroliubivka, pressure from Malynivka, encompassing the area near Katerynivka), and southwest of Pokrovsk (battling for access to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast). Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction, claiming Russian advances towards Siversk on heights north of Verkhnekamyenske and in the forest belt towards Chubarovsky Pond, and destruction of Ukrainian EW stations, communication nodes, and UAV control points near Serebryanka. Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Nova Kruhliakivka, which is near the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. Mash на Донбассе reports a Russian assault soldier survived a head wound on the Artemivsk direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Рыбарь, Военкор Котенок, Сливочный каприз, Mash на Донбассе)
Sumy Oblast (Bilopillia, Yunakivka communities, Velyka Chernechyna, Belovody, Yudnakovka, Krasnooktyabrsky, Volfino, Loknya): Affected by Russian aerial attacks and ground activity. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 and ASTRA report a Russian drone attack on a civilian bus near Bilopillia resulting in 9 fatalities and 4 injuries yesterday. Офіс Генерального прокурора confirms 9 fatalities and 4 injuries from the bus attack yesterday and initiated war crimes investigation. Оперативний ЗСУ reports overnight enemy drone attacks on the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities and KAB strikes on the Yunakivka community, causing damage but no reported casualties in these specific overnight incidents. ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack impacted Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of КАБs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна reports on Russian drone and KAB attacks on the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities, with damage to a civilian object (fire) and destruction of two residential buildings. Сливочный каприз reports positional battles near Sudzha and Russian advances in Loknya towards Yunakovka, and Ukrainian shelling of Russian positions in Loknya. Военкор Котенок reports Ukrainian attempts to enter Kursk Oblast near Volfino (which has a namesake in Sumy Oblast) and Krasnooktyabrsky, with Russian defense. ТАСС reports, citing Russian sources, that several Ukrainian units suffered colossal losses in battles for Belovody (Sumy Oblast). (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ASTRA, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Сумська ОВА, Сливочный каприз, Военкор Котенок, ТАСС)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad district, Synelnykivskyi district, Nikopol district, Nikopol): Affected by Russian aerial attacks and potentially ground operations near the border. ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack impacted Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Север.Реалии reports a Russian drone attack impacted Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with damage to a farming enterprise in Pavlohrad district and an enterprise in Synelnykivskyi district, and damage to a power line and private house in Nikopol district. Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian "Geran" strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts and states the Russian army is approaching Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (ASTRA, Север.Реалии, Рыбарь)
Zhytomyr Oblast: Affected by the overnight Russian aerial attack. ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack impacted Zhytomyr Oblast. Север.Реалии reports a Russian drone attack impacted Zhytomyr Oblast. (ASTRA, Север.Реалии)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Novodanylivka, Robotyne, Kushugum, Chervone, Borova area, Nova Kruhliakivka, Mala Tokmachka, Hulyaipole, Scherbaki, Mali Scherbaky, Kamenka-Dneprovskaya, Tokmak, Polohy, Zaporizhzhia district, Orekhov direction): Russian sources are reporting significant tactical advances, claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian command post (65th Separate Mechanized Brigade), elimination of foreign mercenaries (claiming a company of "Mozart" PMC in Novodanylivka), capture of British and Canadian prisoners, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point in Kushugum, repelling a counterattack near Robotyne with destruction of Bradley IFVs, and the destruction of Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter through artillery strikes. A Russian military blogger claims Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is fundraising for drones, operating in this area. Previous reports (within 6hr window) mentioned Russian artillery strikes and claimed casualties inflicted on Ukrainian forces and warned of rocket/bomb danger in Tokmak and Polohy. Previous reports mentioned Russian advances in the Zaporizhzhia direction, specifically near Mala Tokmachka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian command post (65th Separate Mechanized Brigade) near Medichne, elimination of foreign mercenaries (Mozart PMC) and capture of British and Canadian prisoners in Novodanylivka, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point in Kushugum, repelling a counterattack near Robotyne with destruction of 2 Bradley IFVs, and destruction of 3 Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter through artillery strikes. Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel, 9 artillery systems, 18 vehicles, 2 UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 motorcycle, 5 quad bikes, 1 ground drone, 3 boats, 1 buggy, 1 generator, 2 UAV control antennas, 2 communication antennas, and 2 ammunition storage locations were destroyed in the South over the past day. Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian advances in the Zaporizhzhia direction, specifically near Mala Tokmachka (advancing from the south and east, entering the settlement from the east, and taking full control of a brick factory from the south). Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone. MoD Russia shares a video of a mortar crew targeting Ukrainian positions on the Orekhov direction. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», Сили оборони Півдня України, Рыбарь, Воин DV, MoD Russia)
Kherson Oblast (Kherson city, Korabelnyi district): Affected by Russian attacks. ASTRA reports two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson, with the Kherson MVA confirming the attack and route changes due to high drone activity. STERNENKO reports on this bus attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling of the Korabelnyi district of Kherson, hitting a multi-story building and injuring two civilians. РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack has increased to 5. Сили оборони Півдня України report that 5 people were injured in Kherson Oblast over the past day and report over 500 kamikaze drone strikes and around 200 drone drops in the South over the past day. Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a total of 10 injured civilians in Kherson today from a drone attack on a bus and subsequent artillery shelling in the Korabelnyi district and initiated a criminal proceeding. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack has increased to 5 and reports artillery shelling in the Korabelnyi district with 2 injured civilians. (ASTRA, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Сили оборони Півдня України, Басурин о главном, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Krasnooktyabrsky, Volfino): Affected by Ukrainian drone attacks and ground activity. Рыбарь's morning summary mentions ongoing intense fighting and unsuccessful Ukrainian attempts to break through on the Kursk direction (Tetkino). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the Kursk direction, claiming border guards of the "Steel Border" brigade destroyed an enemy shelter with personnel, a communication antenna, and two quad bikes over the past day. Военкор Котенок reports Ukrainian attempts to enter Kursk Oblast near Krasnooktyabrsky and Volfino overnight with Russian defense. Colonelcassad shares a claim about Ukrainian soldiers attempting to escape in the Kursk border area by disguising themselves as civilians. (Рыбарь, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Военкор Котенок, Colonelcassad)
Crimea (Perevalnoye): Previously reported Ukrainian drone attack on an ammunition depot. Рыбарь's morning summary mentions a Ukrainian drone attack on an ammunition depot in Perevalnoye, Crimea. (Рыбарь)
Odesa Oblast: Previously reported Russian "Geran" strikes. Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian "Geran" strikes in Odesa Oblasts. (Рыбарь)
Chernihiv Oblast: Previously reported Russian "Geran" strikes. Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian "Geran" strikes in Chernihiv Oblasts. (Рыбарь)
Cherkasy Oblast: Previously reported Russian "Geran" strikes. Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian "Geran" strikes in Cherkasy Oblasts. (Рыбарь)
Vinnytsia Oblast: Previously reported Russian "Geran" strikes. Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian "Geran" strikes in Vinnytsia Oblasts. (Рыбарь)
Poltava Oblast: Previously reported Russian "Geran" strikes. Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian "Geran" strikes in Poltava Oblasts. (Рыбарь)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Previously reported Ukrainian drone and artillery terror and civilian casualties. Рыбарь's morning summary reports ongoing Ukrainian drone and artillery terror in Belgorod Oblast, with civilian casualties reported (Arkhangelskoe, Borisovka). (Рыбарь)
Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast): Previously reported fighting. Рыбарь's morning summary mentions ongoing fighting in Chasov Yar and surroundings. (Рыбарь)
Kommersant (Russia): Reporting on the Vologda Oblast scandal. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on the scandal in Vologda Oblast, citing Kommersant. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
Vologda Oblast (Russia): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, and Два майора report on a scandal involving the daughter of a district head allegedly threatening to send people to the "SVO". (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора)
Komsomolsk-on-Amur (Russia): Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a spate of fraud cases here. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
Kharkiv Oblast (Borova area, Nova Kruhliakivka): Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Nova Kruhliakivka, which is near the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. (Сливочный каприз)
Kherson city: Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a criminal proceeding initiated regarding a drone attack on a bus and artillery shelling in the Korabelnyi district. (Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Korabelnyi district (Kherson city): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling here. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports artillery shelling here resulting in injuries. Оперативний ЗСУ reports artillery shelling here resulting in injuries. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Orekhov direction (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): MoD Russia shares a video of a mortar crew targeting Ukrainian positions here. (MoD Russia)
Kupiansk direction (Kharkiv Oblast): Два майора is fundraising for equipment for fighters here. (Два майора)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Remains extremely high and widespread. A massive overnight Russian drone attack involved 108 UAVs, with 93 neutralized (35 by fire, 58 by EW), impacting Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Russian forces are utilizing a high volume of kamikaze drones (over 500 strikes) and conducting drone drops (around 200) in the South. Russian drone attacks occurred overnight in the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities in Sumy Oblast and on a passenger bus in Kherson city, injuring two (now updated to 5). The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 ground drone, and 2 UAV control antennas over the past day, indicating Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian aerial assets. Russian sources claim the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones in the special operation zone and showcase claimed FPV drone combat work. Ukrainian border guards claimed the destruction of two quad bikes and a communication antenna on the Kursk direction over the past day, likely involving drones. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones, highlighting their importance. ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack involved 108 UAVs, with 93 neutralized (35 by fire, 58 by EW). Оперативний ЗСУ reports overnight enemy drone attacks on the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities. ASTRA reports two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson. STERNENKO reports on the Kherson bus attack. Сили оборони Півдня України report over 500 kamikaze drone strikes and around 200 drone drops in the South over the past day, and the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 ground drone, and 2 UAV control antennas. ТАСС shares a video claiming FPV drones "Rubikon" destroy Ukrainian UAVs. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority by destroying enemy reconnaissance UAVs and showcases claimed FPV drone combat work. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the Kursk direction, claiming border guards destroyed two quad bikes and a communication antenna, likely with drones. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones. Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands where a Russian soldier survived a drone attack and captured a Ukrainian soldier, using an anti-drone blanket for evacuation. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video showing Russian soldiers encountering Ukrainian FPV drones. WarGonzo advises soldiers to update their drone detectors. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces shot down a Lancet drone. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a drone attack on a bus in Kherson. РБК-Україна reports on Russian drone attacks in Sumy Oblast. (ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Сили оборони Півдня України, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», Басурин о главном, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, WarGonzo, STERNENKO, Офіс Генерального прокурора, РБК-Україна)
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense neutralized 93 out of 108 Russian UAVs (35 by fire, 58 by EW) overnight. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 ground drone, and 2 UAV control antennas over the past day, indicating Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian aerial assets. Russian sources claim the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones and the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points. ASTRA reports 93 UAVs were neutralized (35 by fire, 58 by EW) out of 108 targeted means of air attack. Сили оборони Півдня України report the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs and 2 EW stations. ТАСС shares a video claiming FPV drones "Rubikon" destroy Ukrainian UAVs. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority by destroying enemy reconnaissance UAVs. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces shot down a Lancet drone. (ASTRA, Сили оборони Півдня України, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, STERNENKO)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian forces used KABs on the Yunakivka community in Sumy Oblast overnight, destroying two residential buildings. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of КАБs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and on frontline oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons (likely including KABs) for frontline oblasts due to tactical aviation activity on the northern and northeastern directions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the US has assembled the first of a series of new B61-13 guided nuclear bombs, noting it as the first tactical nuclear KAB designed to hit hardened underground targets. Оперативний ЗСУ reports KAB strikes on the Yunakivka community. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of КАБs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the US B61-13 guided nuclear bomb. РБК-Україна reports on Russian KAB attacks in Sumy Oblast. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Сумська ОВА)
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active on the northern and northeastern directions, with a threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. Russian tactical aviation launched КАБs on Sumy Oblast overnight. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report 9 aviation strikes in the South over the past day. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of КАБs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming an air strike by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the lens of a drone of the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade. Сили оборони Півдня України report 9 aviation strikes in the South over the past day. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about the activity of Russian tactical aviation on the eastern direction with threat of aerial weapons for frontline oblasts. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Electronic Warfare (EW): 58 Russian UAVs were locationally lost or suppressed by EW overnight. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of 2 EW stations and 2 communication antennas over the past day, indicating Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian capabilities. Russian sources claim the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones and destruction of Ukrainian EW stations and communication nodes. ASTRA reports 58 UAVs were locationally lost or suppressed by EW. Сили оборони Півдня України report the destruction of 2 EW stations and 2 communication antennas. Военкор Котенок reports the destruction of two EW stations and three communication nodes near Serebryanka. Два майора is fundraising for REB complexes for Russian forces. (ASTRA, Сили оборони Півдня України, Военкор Котенок, Два майора)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Russian forces are reportedly using Grad MLRS near Chervone and artillery strikes have reportedly destroyed Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Russian artillery shelling of the Korabelnyi district of Kherson injured two civilians. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report 9 artillery systems destroyed over the past day. Ukrainian border guards claimed the destruction of a shelter with personnel on the Kursk direction over the past day, likely involving artillery. Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling of the Korabelnyi district of Kherson, injuring two civilians. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the Kursk direction, claiming border guards destroyed an enemy shelter with personnel, likely with artillery, and a Russian artillery piece. Сили оборони Півдня України report 9 artillery systems destroyed over the past day. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports artillery shelling in the Korabelnyi district of Kherson resulting in injuries. Оперативний ЗСУ reports artillery shelling in the Korabelnyi district of Kherson with 2 injured civilians. MoD Russia shares a video of a mortar crew targeting Ukrainian positions on the Orekhov direction. (Воин DV, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Сили оборони Півдня України, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ, MoD Russia)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Donald Trump continues to make statements about potential negotiations and Ukraine's readiness to end the war. Reports suggest he might step back if progress isn't made and could yield the settlement role to Europe. Russian commentary interprets these statements. The IMF mission starting in Kyiv is a diplomatic development related to financial support. РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement that he thinks Zelenskyy wants to stop the war and he will assess in two weeks if Ukraine is doing enough, and his comments about needing time to make conclusions. РБК-Україна reports Trump admitting the possibility of US withdrawal from negotiations if they can't help, citing "very big egos." Два майора reports that American journalists believe Trump will abandon support for Ukraine. Басурин о главном shares commentary from Bild and Financial Times on the Trump-Putin conversation, with differing interpretations of the outcomes and challenges. РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5, which impacts the humanitarian context of any negotiations. ТАСС, citing the Financial Times, reports that European officials view the recent Putin-Trump conversation as a major victory for the Russian leader, suggesting Trump is "stepping aside" and leaving the burden on Europe. ТАСС reports on Konstantin Kosachev's statement that Trump has recognized Russia as an equal subject of international relations, while Kyiv has been turned into an "object" and "instrument." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 highlights a key statement by Putin at the end of a recent address. Два майора links the strength of Russia's negotiating position to the successes of their army. (РБК-Україна, Два майора, Басурин о главном, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Russia-United States Relations: Donald Trump is making statements regarding the conflict and potential US involvement in negotiations, including possibly stepping back or yielding the settlement role to Europe. РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement that he thinks Zelenskyy wants to stop the war and he will assess in two weeks if Ukraine is doing enough. РБК-Україна reports Trump admitting the possibility of US withdrawal from negotiations if they can't help. Два майора reports that American journalists believe Trump will abandon support for Ukraine. Басурин о главном shares commentary from Bild and Financial Times on the Trump-Putin conversation, with differing interpretations of the outcomes. ТАСС, citing the Financial Times, reports that European officials view the recent Putin-Trump conversation as a major victory for the Russian leader, suggesting Trump is "stepping aside" and leaving the burden on Europe. ТАСС reports on Konstantin Kosachev's statement that Trump has recognized Russia as an equal subject of international relations. (РБК-Україна, Два майора, Басурин о главном, ТАСС)
Internal Russian Politics: ASTRA promotes its VPN service to bypass censorship. A Russian military blogger comments on the rise of right-wing parties in Europe and links it to dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine. TASS reports on a domestic incident in the US involving a Russian hockey player. TASS reports on a scam targeting graduates using "Gosuslugi" accounts. TASS reports former Roscosmos head Borisov was appointed senator from Arkhangelsk Oblast. ASTRA promotes its VPN service. «Зона СВО» shares a photo message. ТАСС reports on the detention of Russian hockey player Alexander Alekseev in the US. ASTRA promotes its VPN service. Два майора reports that American journalists believe Trump will abandon support for Ukraine. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА comments on the growth of right-wing approval in Europe. Север.Реалии reports on the overnight Russian drone attack impacting various oblasts. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority. ТАСС reports former Roscosmos head Borisov was appointed senator from Arkhangelsk Oblast. РБК-Україна reports the IMF mission started work in Kyiv. ТАСС reports on a scam targeting graduates. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a scandal in Vologda Oblast involving the daughter of a district head allegedly threatening to send people to the "SVO". ASTRA reports on the scandal in Vologda Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video related to the scandal in Vologda Oblast. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a spate of fraud cases in Komsomolsk-on-Amur. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports on the scandal in Vologda Oblast. Два майора shares a video on the scandal in Vologda Oblast. AV БогомаZ shares a report from "Russia 24" on Russian farmers. (ASTRA, «Зона СВО», ТАСС, Два майора, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Север.Реалии, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, Colonelcassad, Полиция Хабаровского края, AV БогомаZ)
European Political Shifts: A Russian military blogger highlights the rise of right-wing parties in Europe, citing election results in Portugal, and attributes this trend to public dissatisfaction with populism, migration, and the war in Ukraine. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА comments on the growth of right-wing approval in Europe. ТАСС, citing the Financial Times, reports that European officials view the recent Putin-Trump conversation as a major victory for the Russian leader and are concerned about the burden on Europe. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ТАСС)
International Financial Support: The IMF mission has started its work in Kyiv to discuss the eighth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. РБК-Україна reports the IMF mission started work in Kyiv. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the European Union is expected to adopt the 17th package of sanctions against Russia today, targeting the "shadow fleet" and energy trade revenues. (РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Information Warfare and Propaganda: Both Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to utilize information operations. Ukrainian sources are commemorating fallen soldiers and key battles (Mariupol) and highlighting training efforts and fundraising. Russian sources are promoting claimed military successes and advancements (drone destruction, tactical gains, use of thermobaric systems), attempting to influence narratives around negotiations and European political shifts, and reporting on domestic incidents and scandals. ASTRA is promoting its VPN service as a way to bypass censorship in Russia. A Russian military blogger uses a historical quote to promote their channel. A Russian military blogger comments on the rise of right-wing parties in Europe and links it to dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine. TASS reports on a domestic incident in the US involving a Russian hockey player. TASS reports on a scam targeting graduates using "Gosuslugi" accounts. TASS reports former Roscosmos head Borisov was appointed senator from Arkhangelsk Oblast. ASTRA promotes its VPN service. «Зона СВО» shares a photo message and a video. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for Starlink stations and reports on claimed military successes and personnel losses on the Zaporizhzhia direction and commemorates "Veterans Day" in Russia. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones and shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority and showcases claimed FPV drone combat work and reports on claimed scandals/desertions in a Ukrainian brigade. Colonelcassad reports on the liberation of Bogatyr and shares a video related to the Vologda scandal and a claim about Ukrainian soldiers evading capture in Kursk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A and shares a video claiming "Geran" strikes on a Ukrainian staging area. РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement that he thinks Zelenskyy wants to stop the war and his comments about needing time to make conclusions, and reports on the IMF mission and expected EU sanctions. Новости Москвы reports on changes in soft drink production. Басурин о главном shares commentary from Bild and Financial Times on the Trump-Putin conversation and shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 comments on FPV drone reach in Kherson. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming an air strike and commemorates the defense of Mariupol and captivity of the Azov garrison and shares a video of Trump's statement and reports on the expected EU sanctions and shares a satirical video related to Zelenskyy. Сили оборони Півдня України report Russian losses. ASTRA promotes its VPN service and reports two people injured in the Kherson bus attack and reports on the Vologda scandal and fraud cases. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА comments on the growth of right-wing approval in Europe and reports on the Vologda scandal and shares a video of Russian soldiers encountering Ukrainian FPV drones. Север.Реалии reports on the overnight Russian drone attack impacting various oblasts. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for drones and hints at internal developments. Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle and reports on combat near Sudzha and Loknya. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling in Kherson and on the Kursk direction, and reports on the US B61-13 guided nuclear bomb and shares a video claiming Ukrainian border guard actions in Kursk. РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5 and the IMF mission started work in Kyiv and reports on Russian drone and KAB attacks in Sumy. Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone, and reports on the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones. Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction and reports on Ukrainian attempts to enter Kursk Oblast and Russian defense actions. Alex Parker Returns shares a headline about Russia allegedly recruiting "pirates and jungle dwellers" and a message from Arestovich. ТАСС, citing the Financial Times, reports European officials view the Putin-Trump conversation as a victory for Russia and reports on Konstantin Kosachev's statement on Trump's view of Russia and Ukraine and reports on Ukrainian losses in Sumy Oblast. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on fraud cases in Komsomolsk-on-Amur. AV БогомаZ shares a report from "Russia 24" on Russian farmers. Mash на Донбассе reports a Russian assault soldier survived a head wound and shares photos related to the soldier. WarGonzo advises soldiers to update their drone detectors. MoD Russia shares a video of a mortar crew targeting Ukrainian positions. (ASTRA, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, РБК-Україна, Новости Москвы, Басурин о главном, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Север.Реалии, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», Сливочный каприз, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС, Полиция Хабаровского края, AV БогомаZ, Mash на Донбассе, WarGonzo, MoD Russia)
US Nuclear Modernization: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the US has assembled the first of a series of new B61-13 guided nuclear bombs, noting it as the first tactical nuclear KAB designed to hit hardened underground targets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the US B61-13 guided nuclear bomb. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Romanian Presidential Election: РБК-Україна reports that Simion has conceded defeat in the Romanian presidential election. (РБК-Україна)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: ASTRA promotes its VPN service to bypass censorship. TASS reports on a scam targeting graduates using "Gosuslugi" accounts. ASTRA promotes its VPN service. ТАСС reports on a scam targeting graduates. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a spate of fraud cases in Komsomolsk-on-Amur. (ASTRA, ТАСС, Полиция Хабаровского края)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces are reporting significant tactical advances on the Zaporizhzhia and South-Donetsk directions, claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian command post, elimination and capture of foreign mercenaries, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point, repelling a counterattack, and destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles. They also claim the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones and the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones. Russian forces are reportedly using Grad MLRS and TOS-1A thermobaric systems. Russian military bloggers highlight claimed successes and advancements. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of a significant amount of Russian equipment, including artillery systems, vehicles, UAVs, and EW stations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian command post, elimination of foreign mercenaries and capture of British and Canadian prisoners, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point, repelling a counterattack with destruction of 2 Bradley IFVs, and destruction of 3 Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter through artillery strikes. He is also fundraising for Starlink stations. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones on the South-Donetsk direction near Otradnoye, Novoukrainka, and Zelenyy Kut, destroying over 10 vehicles and showcases claimed FPV drone combat work. Colonelcassad reports on the liberation of Bogatyr in the DNR on Sunday and continued Russian advances on the South-Donetsk direction and claims about Ukrainian soldiers evading capture in Kursk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems against a fortified Ukrainian stronghold on the South-Donetsk direction and mentions the loss of Bogatyr for Ukraine and shares a video claiming "Geran" strikes on a Ukrainian staging area. ТАСС shares a video claiming FPV drones "Rubikon" destroy Ukrainian UAVs. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority by destroying enemy reconnaissance UAVs. Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian advances in Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and ongoing intense fighting on the Kursk direction, and that the Russian army is approaching Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone, and reports on the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones. Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction, claiming Russian advances towards Siversk and near Verkhnekamyenske, and destruction of Ukrainian EW stations, communication nodes, and UAV control points near Serebryanka and reports on Ukrainian attempts to enter Kursk Oblast and Russian defense actions. Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel, 9 artillery systems, 18 vehicles, 2 UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 motorcycle, 5 quad bikes, 1 ground drone, 3 boats, 1 buggy, 1 generator, 2 UAV control antennas, 2 communication antennas, and 2 ammunition storage locations were destroyed in the South over the past day. Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Nova Kruhliakivka and reports on combat near Sudzha and Loknya. Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands where a Russian soldier survived a drone attack and captured a Ukrainian soldier, using an anti-drone blanket for evacuation. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video showing Russian soldiers encountering Ukrainian FPV drones. Mash на Донбассе reports a Russian assault soldier survived a head wound on the Artemivsk direction. Два майора promotes fundraising for Russian forces and links military successes to diplomatic strength. MoD Russia shares a video of a mortar crew targeting Ukrainian positions on the Orekhov direction, claiming to have hit a Ukrainian UAV control point. ТАСС reports, citing Russian sources, that several Ukrainian units suffered colossal losses in battles for Belovody (Sumy Oblast). (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Рыбарь, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Сили оборони Півдня України, Сливочный каприз, Басурин о главном, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Mash на Донбассе, Два майора, MoD Russia)
Casualties: Russian sources are reporting significant claimed Ukrainian personnel losses on the Zaporizhzhia direction, including the elimination and capture of foreign mercenaries. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report 77 Russian personnel losses over the past day. The Kyiv City Military Administration commemorates the death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko. The Ukrainian General Staff shares photos of soldiers training. The Air Assault Forces of Ukraine share a video of soldiers training. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming elimination of foreign mercenaries (Mozart PMC) and capture of British and Canadian prisoners in Novodanylivka. Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel were destroyed over the past day and report 5 people were injured in Kherson Oblast over the past day. КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) commemorates the death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos and text about infantry training exercises for the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares a video of night assault training by soldiers of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade. Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands where a Russian soldier survived a drone attack and captured a Ukrainian soldier. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling in Kherson, injuring two civilians. РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5. Воин DV claims that three AFU servicemen were killed during a disrupted rotation on the Zaporizhzhia direction, and reports on the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones near Zelenyy Kut and Bogatyr, resulting in 7 Ukrainian servicemen killed. Mash на Донбассе reports a Russian assault soldier survived a head wound on the Artemivsk direction. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a total of 10 injured civilians in Kherson today. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5 and reports artillery shelling in the Korabelnyi district with 2 injured civilians. ТАСС reports, citing Russian sources, that several Ukrainian units suffered colossal losses in battles for Belovody (Sumy Oblast). БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a wounded Russian soldier attempting suicide. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Сили оборони Півдня України, КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Басурин о главном, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Воин DV, Mash на Донбассе, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources continue to engage in information operations, promoting claimed military successes and advancements and attempting to influence narratives around negotiations and European political shifts. They are utilizing videos and commentary from military bloggers. ASTRA is promoting its VPN service as a way to bypass censorship in Russia. A Russian military blogger uses a historical quote to promote their channel. A Russian military blogger comments on the rise of right-wing parties in Europe and links it to dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine. TASS reports on a domestic incident in the US involving a Russian hockey player. TASS reports on a scam targeting graduates using "Gosuslugi" accounts. TASS reports former Roscosmos head Borisov was appointed senator from Arkhangelsk Oblast. ASTRA promotes its VPN service. «Зона СВО» shares a photo message and a video. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for Starlink stations and reports on claimed military successes and personnel losses on the Zaporizhzhia direction and commemorates "Veterans Day" in Russia. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones and shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority and showcases claimed FPV drone combat work and reports on claimed scandals/desertions in a Ukrainian brigade. Colonelcassad reports on the liberation of Bogatyr and shares a video related to the Vologda scandal and a claim about Ukrainian soldiers evading capture in Kursk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A and shares a video claiming "Geran" strikes on a Ukrainian staging area. РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement that he thinks Zelenskyy wants to stop the war and his comments about needing time to make conclusions, and reports on the IMF mission and expected EU sanctions. Новости Москвы reports on changes in soft drink production. Басурин о главном shares commentary from Bild and Financial Times on the Trump-Putin conversation and shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 comments on FPV drone reach in Kherson. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming an air strike and commemorates the defense of Mariupol and captivity of the Azov garrison and shares a video of Trump's statement and reports on the expected EU sanctions and shares a satirical video related to Zelenskyy. Сили оборони Півдня України report Russian losses. ASTRA promotes its VPN service and reports two people injured in the Kherson bus attack and reports on the Vologda scandal and fraud cases. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА comments on the growth of right-wing approval in Europe and reports on the Vologda scandal and shares a video of Russian soldiers encountering Ukrainian FPV drones. Север.Реалии reports on the overnight Russian drone attack impacting various oblasts. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for drones and hints at internal developments. Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle and reports on combat near Sudzha and Loknya. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling in Kherson and on the Kursk direction, and reports on the US B61-13 guided nuclear bomb and shares a video claiming Ukrainian border guard actions in Kursk. РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5 and the IMF mission started work in Kyiv and reports on Russian drone and KAB attacks in Sumy. Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone, and reports on the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones. Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction and reports on Ukrainian attempts to enter Kursk Oblast and Russian defense actions. Alex Parker Returns shares a headline about Russia allegedly recruiting "pirates and jungle dwellers" and a message from Arestovich. ТАСС, citing the Financial Times, reports European officials view the Putin-Trump conversation as a victory for Russia and reports on Konstantin Kosachev's statement on Trump's view of Russia and Ukraine and reports on Ukrainian losses in Sumy Oblast. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on fraud cases in Komsomolsk-on-Amur. AV БогомаZ shares a report from "Russia 24" on Russian farmers. Mash на Донбассе reports a Russian assault soldier survived a head wound and shares photos related to the soldier. WarGonzo advises soldiers to update their drone detectors. MoD Russia shares a video of a mortar crew targeting Ukrainian positions. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a wounded Russian soldier attempting suicide. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides a Ukrainian operational update and casualty figures for the Kharkiv sector. (ASTRA, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, РБК-Україна, Новости Москвы, Басурин о главном, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Север.Реалии, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», Сливочный каприз, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС, Полиция Хабаровского края, AV БогомаZ, Mash на Донбассе, WarGonzo, MoD Russia, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)
Political Appointments: Former Roscosmos head Borisov was appointed senator from Arkhangelsk Oblast. ТАСС reports former Roscosmos head Borisov was appointed senator from Arkhangelsk Oblast. (ТАСС)
Economic Issues (Indirect): Новости Москвы reports on changes in soft drink production due to increased excise tax, an internal economic issue. Новости Москвы reports on changes in soft drink production. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the European Union is expected to adopt the 17th package of sanctions against Russia today, targeting the "shadow fleet" and energy trade revenues. (Новости Москвы, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Social Issues: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, and Два майора report on a scandal in Vologda Oblast involving the daughter of a district head allegedly threatening to send people to the "SVO". Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a spate of fraud cases in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, including targeting minors. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Полиция Хабаровского края)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones. Ukrainian military bloggers are highlighting training efforts. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones. РБК-Україна reports that a unit of the "Rubizh" brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine is fundraising for the restoration of destroyed property and equipment. (‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», РБК-Україна)
Civilian Support (Ukraine): The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration shares a video message commemorating those who died in the war. The Kyiv City Military Administration commemorates the death of a Ukrainian soldier. Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure, including a bus in Kherson and buildings in Kherson and Sumy Oblasts, highlight the continued need for civilian support and aid. The increasing number of injured civilians in Kherson reinforces this need. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video message commemorating those who died in the war. КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) commemorates the death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko. ASTRA reports two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson. STERNENKO reports on the Kherson bus attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling in Kherson, injuring two civilians. РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5. Сили оборони Півдня України report 5 people were injured in Kherson Oblast over the past day. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a total of 10 injured civilians in Kherson today from a drone attack and artillery shelling. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5 and reports artillery shelling in the Korabelnyi district with 2 injured civilians. РБК-Україна reports on Russian drone and KAB attacks in Sumy Oblast causing damage and destruction of residential buildings. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a wounded Russian soldier attempting suicide, which, while graphic, could be used to highlight the psychological toll of the war and the need for support. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), ASTRA, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Сили оборони Півдня України, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ, Сумська ОВА, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Military Support (Russia): Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment, including Starlink stations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for Starlink stations. Два майора is fundraising for transport and equipment for Russian forces on the Krasnolimanskoye direction. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Два майора)
Reconstruction and Recovery (Ukraine): Reports of damaged civilian infrastructure in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts due to Russian drone and KAB strikes highlight the need for reconstruction efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports damage to a civilian object and two residential buildings in Sumy Oblast. Север.Реалии reports damage to farming and other enterprises and a power line and private house in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. РБК-Україна reports on Russian drone and KAB attacks in Sumy Oblast causing damage and destruction of residential buildings. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Север.Реалии, РБК-Україна, Сумська ОВА)
Veterans Support (Russia): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 commemorates "Veterans Day" in Russia, emphasizing service and duty. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a wounded Russian soldier attempting suicide, which, while graphic, could be used to highlight the psychological toll of the war and the need for support for veterans. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults and widespread aerial attacks, inflicting casualties and claiming destruction of Russian equipment. Conducting training exercises focused on night assaults, trench warfare, teamwork, and incorporating drones and EW. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is fundraising for drones. Ukrainian border guards claimed the destruction of a shelter with personnel, a communication antenna, and two quad bikes on the Kursk direction over the past day, likely involving drone and artillery tactics. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of a significant amount of Russian equipment, including artillery systems, vehicles, UAVs, and EW stations, and repelling attacks in the South. They also report the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 ground drone, and 2 UAV control antennas over the past day, indicating Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian aerial assets. The Ukrainian General Staff shares photos of infantry training. The Air Assault Forces of Ukraine share a video of night assault training. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video message commemorating those who died in the war. КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) commemorates the death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming an air strike by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel, 9 artillery systems, 18 vehicles, 2 UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 motorcycle, 5 quad bikes, 1 ground drone, 3 boats, 1 buggy, 1 generator, 2 UAV control antennas, 2 communication antennas, and 2 ammunition storage locations were destroyed in the South over the past day. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones and hints at internal developments. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the Kursk direction, claiming border guards destroyed an enemy shelter with personnel, a communication antenna, and two quad bikes over the past day and a Russian artillery piece. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos and text about infantry training exercises for the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares a video of night assault training by soldiers of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces shot down a Lancet drone. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides a Ukrainian operational update and casualty figures for the Kharkiv sector, highlighting Russian losses. ТАСС reports, citing Russian sources, that several Ukrainian units suffered colossal losses in battles for Belovody (Sumy Oblast). Военкор Котенок reports on Ukrainian attempts to enter Kursk Oblast near Krasnooktyabrsky and Volfino, with Russian defense. РБК-Україна reports that a unit of the "Rubizh" brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine is fundraising. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Оперативний ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Десантно-штурмові військові ЗС України, STERNENKO, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, РБК-Україна)
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults and widespread aerial attacks with drones and KABs. Reporting significant claimed tactical advances on the Zaporizhzhia and South-Donetsk directions, including the destruction of a Ukrainian command post, elimination and capture of foreign mercenaries, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point, repelling a counterattack, and destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles and Leopard tanks. Claiming the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones and the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones. Reportedly using Grad MLRS and TOS-1A thermobaric systems. Military bloggers are highlighting claimed successes and advancements. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of a significant amount of Russian equipment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian command post, elimination of foreign mercenaries and capture of British and Canadian prisoners, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point, repelling a counterattack with destruction of 2 Bradley IFVs, and destruction of 3 Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter through artillery strikes. He is also fundraising for Starlink stations. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones on the South-Donetsk direction near Otradnoye, Novoukrainka, and Zelenyy Kut, destroying over 10 vehicles and showcases claimed FPV drone combat work. Colonelcassad reports on the liberation of Bogatyr in the DNR on Sunday and continued Russian advances on the South-Donetsk direction and shares a claim about Ukrainian soldiers evading capture in Kursk. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems against a fortified Ukrainian stronghold on the South-Donetsk direction and mentions the loss of Bogatyr for Ukraine and shares a video claiming "Geran" strikes on a Ukrainian staging area. ТАСС shares a video claiming FPV drones "Rubikon" destroy Ukrainian UAVs. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority by destroying enemy reconnaissance UAVs. Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian advances in Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and ongoing intense fighting on the Kursk direction, and that the Russian army is approaching Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone, and reports on the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones. Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction, claiming Russian advances towards Siversk and near Verkhnekamyenske, and destruction of Ukrainian EW stations, communication nodes, and UAV control points near Serebryanka and reports on Ukrainian attempts to enter Kursk Oblast and Russian defense actions. Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel, 9 artillery systems, 18 vehicles, 2 UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 motorcycle, 5 quad bikes, 1 ground drone, 3 boats, 1 buggy, 1 generator, 2 UAV control antennas, 2 communication antennas, and 2 ammunition storage locations were destroyed in the South over the past day. Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Nova Kruhliakivka and reports on combat near Sudzha and Loknya. Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands where a Russian soldier survived a drone attack and captured a Ukrainian soldier, using an anti-drone blanket for evacuation. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video showing Russian soldiers encountering Ukrainian FPV drones. Mash на Донбассе reports a Russian assault soldier survived a head wound on the Artemivsk direction. Два майора promotes fundraising for Russian forces and links military successes to diplomatic strength. MoD Russia shares a video of a mortar crew targeting Ukrainian positions on the Orekhov direction, claiming to have hit a Ukrainian UAV control point. ТАСС reports, citing Russian sources, that several Ukrainian units suffered colossal losses in battles for Belovody (Sumy Oblast). БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a wounded Russian soldier attempting suicide. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Рыбарь, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Сили оборони Півдня України, Сливочный каприз, Басурин о главном, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Mash на Донбассе, Два майора, MoD Russia, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦)
Third-Party Involvement: Donald Trump is making statements regarding the conflict and potential US involvement in negotiations. Foreign mercenaries are reported to be fighting in Ukraine. The IMF mission has started its work in Kyiv. Right-wing parties in Europe are gaining support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the elimination and capture of foreign mercenaries (Mozart PMC) in Novodanylivka, including British and Canadian prisoners. РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement that he thinks Zelenskyy wants to stop the war and his comments about needing time to make conclusions. РБК-Україна reports Trump admitting the possibility of US withdrawal from negotiations if they can't help. Два майора reports that American journalists believe Trump will abandon support for Ukraine. Басурин о главном shares commentary from Bild and Financial Times on the Trump-Putin conversation. РБК-Україна reports the IMF mission started work in Kyiv. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА comments on the growth of right-wing approval in Europe. Alex Parker Returns shares a headline about Russia allegedly recruiting "pirates and jungle dwellers," which implies third-party recruitment. ТАСС, citing the Financial Times, reports that European officials view the recent Putin-Trump conversation as a major victory for the Russian leader and are concerned about the burden on Europe. ТАСС reports on Konstantin Kosachev's statement on Trump's view of Russia and Ukraine. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, РБК-Україна, Два майора, Басурин о главном, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС)
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of various types of drones by both sides (strike UAVs, FPV drones, reconnaissance drones, ground drones, "Baba Yaga" types). Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs, artillery, MLRS (Grad), and thermobaric systems (TOS-1A). Russian sources claim the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones and the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones. Ukrainian forces are using drones for targeting and have claimed the destruction of Russian equipment and personnel. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of a variety of Russian equipment including artillery systems, vehicles, UAVs, and EW stations. Ukrainian border guards claimed the destruction of a shelter with personnel, a communication antenna, and two quad bikes on the Kursk direction over the past day, likely involving drone and artillery tactics. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones. Ukrainian military bloggers are highlighting training efforts incorporating drones and EW. ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack involved 108 UAVs, with 93 neutralized (35 by fire, 58 by EW). Оперативний ЗСУ reports overnight enemy drone attacks on the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities and KAB strikes on the Yunakivka community. ASTRA reports two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson. STERNENKO reports on the Kherson bus attack. Сили оборони Півдня України report over 500 kamikaze drone strikes and around 200 drone drops in the South over the past day, and the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 ground drone, 2 UAV control antennas, 9 artillery systems, 18 vehicles, 1 motorcycle, 5 quad bikes, 1 buggy, 1 generator, and 2 ammunition storage locations. ТАСС shares a video claiming FPV drones "Rubikon" destroy Ukrainian UAVs. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones on the South-Donetsk direction, destroying over 10 vehicles, and shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority and showcases claimed FPV drone combat work. Colonelcassad reports on Russian advances and the use of TOS-1A on the South-Donetsk direction and shares a video related to the Vologda scandal. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems against a fortified Ukrainian stronghold on the South-Donetsk direction and shares a video claiming "Geran" strikes on a Ukrainian staging area. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of КАБs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling in Kherson and on the Kursk direction, claiming border guards destroyed an enemy shelter, a communication antenna, two quad bikes, and a Russian artillery piece over the past day. РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5 and reports on Russian drone and KAB attacks in Sumy. Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone, and reports on the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones. Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction, claiming destruction of Ukrainian EW stations, communication nodes, and UAV control points near Serebryanka. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos and text about infantry training exercises for the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade, focusing on assaulting trenches and teamwork. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares a video of night assault training by soldiers of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, emphasizing the use of night vision devices, thermal drones, communication, interaction with UAVs and EW, fire support, and tactical medicine. Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands where a Russian soldier survived a drone attack and captured a Ukrainian soldier, using an anti-drone blanket for evacuation. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video showing Russian soldiers encountering Ukrainian FPV drones. WarGonzo advises soldiers to update their drone detectors. STERNENKO shares a video claiming Ukrainian forces shot down a Lancet drone. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a drone attack on a bus in Kherson. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Russian drone and KAB attacks in Sumy Oblast destroying residential buildings. Два майора is fundraising for REB complexes, thermal sights, signal amplifiers, and drone detectors for Russian forces. MoD Russia shares a video of a mortar crew targeting Ukrainian positions on the Orekhov direction, claiming to have hit a Ukrainian UAV control point. РБК-Україна reports that a unit of the "Rubizh" brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine is fundraising, including for tactical and technical equipment and equipment for pilots. (ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Сили оборони Півдня України, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Басурин о главном, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, WarGonzo, STERNENKO, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Сумська ОВА, Два майора, MoD Russia)
Personnel: Russian sources are reporting significant claimed Ukrainian personnel losses on the Zaporizhzhia direction, including the elimination and capture of foreign mercenaries. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report 77 Russian personnel losses over the past day. The Kyiv City Military Administration commemorates the death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko. The Ukrainian General Staff shares photos of soldiers training. The Air Assault Forces of Ukraine share a video of soldiers training. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming elimination of foreign mercenaries (Mozart PMC) and capture of British and Canadian prisoners in Novodanylivka. Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel were destroyed over the past day and report 5 people were injured in Kherson Oblast over the past day. КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) commemorates the death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos and text about infantry training exercises for the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares a video of night assault training by soldiers of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade. Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands where a Russian soldier survived a drone attack and captured a Ukrainian soldier. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling in Kherson, injuring two civilians. РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5. Воин DV claims that three AFU servicemen were killed during a disrupted rotation on the Zaporizhzhia direction, and reports on the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones near Zelenyy Kut and Bogatyr, resulting in 7 Ukrainian servicemen killed. Mash на Донбассе reports a Russian assault soldier survived a head wound on the Artemivsk direction. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a total of 10 injured civilians in Kherson today. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5 and reports artillery shelling in the Korabelnyi district with 2 injured civilians. ТАСС reports, citing Russian sources, that several Ukrainian units suffered colossal losses in battles for Belovody (Sumy Oblast). БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a wounded Russian soldier attempting suicide. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides a Ukrainian operational update and casualty figures for the Kharkiv sector, highlighting Russian personnel losses. Colonelcassad shares a claim about Ukrainian soldiers attempting to escape in the Kursk border area by disguising themselves as civilians. Два майора promotes fundraising for Russian forces on the Krasnolimanskoye direction, indicating personnel present in that area. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Сили оборони Півдня України, КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Басурин о главном, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Воин DV, Mash на Донбассе, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, Два майора)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The massive overnight Russian drone offensive involving 108 UAVs across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, with 93 neutralized, and reported impacts in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts, including civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure, is a significant strategic event. It demonstrates Russia's continued capacity to launch large-scale aerial assaults aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses and striking targets across a wide geographical area. The use of EW to neutralize a large number of these drones highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian countermeasures and the evolving nature of aerial warfare. The reported impacts across multiple oblasts highlight the widespread nature of the threat and the strategic objective of pressuring Ukraine across various regions. The scale of kamikaze drone strikes and drone drops in the South further emphasizes this strategic objective. ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack involved 108 UAVs, with 93 neutralized (35 by fire, 58 by EW), impacting Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports overnight enemy drone attacks on the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities and KAB strikes on the Yunakivka community. Сили оборони Півдня України report over 500 kamikaze drone strikes and around 200 drone drops in the South over the past day, and the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 ground drone, and 2 UAV control antennas. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of КАБs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. Север.Реалии reports on the overnight Russian drone attack impacting various oblasts with damage. РБК-Україна reports on Russian drone and KAB attacks in Sumy Oblast causing damage and destruction of residential buildings. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a drone attack on a bus in Kherson resulting in injuries. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on a bus in Kherson resulting in injuries. (ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Север.Реалии, РБК-Україна, Сумська ОВА, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russian sources reporting significant tactical advances on the Zaporizhzhia and South-Donetsk directions, including claims of destroying a Ukrainian command post, eliminating and capturing foreign mercenaries, destroying equipment (Bradley, Leopard tanks), and capturing prisoners, are strategically significant as they aim to portray a narrative of Russian military success and momentum. If these claims are verified, they could impact the strategic situation on these key fronts, potentially leading to shifts in the front line and requiring adjustments in Ukrainian defensive strategies. The claimed use of TOS-1A thermobaric systems highlights a tactic employed by Russia for engaging fortified positions, which has strategic implications for urban and defensive warfare. The claimed liberation of Bogatyr is a key territorial gain for Russia on the South-Donetsk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian command post, elimination of foreign mercenaries and capture of British and Canadian prisoners, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point, repelling a counterattack with destruction of 2 Bradley IFVs, and destruction of 3 Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter through artillery strikes. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones on the South-Donetsk direction, destroying over 10 vehicles. Colonelcassad reports on the liberation of Bogatyr in the DNR on Sunday and continued Russian advances on the South-Donetsk direction. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems against a fortified Ukrainian stronghold on the South-Donetsk direction and mentions the loss of Bogatyr for Ukraine. Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian advances in Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and ongoing intense fighting on the Kursk direction, and that the Russian army is approaching Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone. Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction, claiming Russian advances towards Siversk and near Verkhnekamyenske. Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel, 9 artillery systems, 18 vehicles, 2 UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 motorcycle, 5 quad bikes, 1 ground drone, 3 boats, 1 buggy, 1 generator, 2 UAV control antennas, 2 communication antennas, and 2 ammunition storage locations were destroyed in the South over the past day, presenting a Ukrainian perspective on Russian losses. Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Nova Kruhliakivka and reports on combat near Sudzha and Loknya. Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands where a Russian soldier survived a drone attack and captured a Ukrainian soldier. Mash на Донбассе reports a Russian assault soldier survived a head wound on the Artemivsk direction. MoD Russia shares a video of a mortar crew targeting Ukrainian positions on the Orekhov direction, claiming to have hit a Ukrainian UAV control point. ТАСС reports, citing Russian sources, that several Ukrainian units suffered colossal losses in battles for Belovody (Sumy Oblast). Военкор Котенок reports on Ukrainian attempts to enter Kursk Oblast near Krasnooktyabrsky and Volfino, with Russian defense. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Рыбарь, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Сили оборони Півдня України, Сливочный каприз, Басурин о главном, Mash на Донбассе, MoD Russia, ТАСС)
Donald Trump's statements on the conflict and potential US involvement in negotiations, particularly his comments about Ukraine's readiness to end the war, assessing Kyiv's actions, the involvement of "very big egos," and the possibility of stepping back or yielding the settlement role to Europe, are strategically significant. These statements from a former US President with potential future political influence can impact international perceptions of the conflict, influence the dynamics of potential negotiations, and potentially create divisions among Ukraine's international partners. Russian commentary on these statements reflects ongoing information operations aimed at exploiting any perceived shifts in US policy. РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement that he thinks Zelenskyy wants to stop the war and he will assess in two weeks if Ukraine is doing enough, and his comments about needing time to make conclusions. РБК-Україна reports Trump admitting the possibility of US withdrawal from negotiations if they can't help. Два майора reports that American journalists believe Trump will abandon support for Ukraine. Басурин о главном shares commentary from Bild and Financial Times on the Trump-Putin conversation, with differing interpretations of the outcomes. ТАСС, citing the Financial Times, reports that European officials view the recent Putin-Trump conversation as a major victory for the Russian leader, suggesting Trump is "stepping aside" and leaving the burden on Europe. ТАСС reports on Konstantin Kosachev's statement that Trump has recognized Russia as an equal subject of international relations, while Kyiv has been turned into an "object" and "instrument." (РБК-Україна, Два майора, Басурин о главном, ТАСС)
The commemoration of the defense of Mariupol and the captivity of the Azov garrison is a significant strategic communication effort by Ukraine. It serves to honor the sacrifice of Ukrainian defenders, maintain public awareness of the ongoing issue of prisoners of war, and reinforce the narrative of Ukrainian resilience and resistance in the face of overwhelming force. This act of remembrance is crucial for national morale and identity. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС commemorates the 86 days of defense and 1096 days of captivity of the Mariupol garrison. (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
The IMF mission starting its work in Kyiv is strategically significant as it highlights the continuation of international financial support for Ukraine. This support is crucial for maintaining Ukraine's economic stability during the conflict and for potential post-war recovery. РБК-Україна reports the IMF mission started work in Kyiv. (РБК-Україна)
The tragic human cost of the conflict, as highlighted by the confirmation of 9 fatalities and 4 injuries from yesterday's bus attack in Sumy Oblast, and the new reports of injured civilians in Kherson due to drone and artillery attacks (including an increase to 5 injured in the bus attack, and 10 total injured in Kherson today from drone and artillery), and the destruction of residential buildings in Sumy Oblast, continues to be a major strategic consideration. These incidents underscore the impact of the conflict on civilians, raise concerns about potential war crimes, and fuel international condemnation of Russian actions. They also influence humanitarian efforts and potentially evacuation strategies. ASTRA reports two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson. STERNENKO reports on the Kherson bus attack. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling in Kherson, injuring two civilians. РБК-Україna reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5. Сили оборони Півдня України report 5 people were injured in Kherson Oblast over the past day. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a total of 10 injured civilians in Kherson today from a drone attack on a bus and subsequent artillery shelling and initiated a criminal proceeding for violation of the laws and customs of war. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5 and reports artillery shelling in the Korabelnyi district with 2 injured civilians. РБК-Україна reports on Russian drone and KAB attacks in Sumy Oblast causing damage and destruction of residential buildings. Сумська ОВА reports on Russian drone and KAB attacks in Sumy Oblast causing damage and destruction of residential buildings. (ASTRA, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Сили оборони Півдня України, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ, Сумська ОВА)
The US assembling the first of a series of new B61-13 guided nuclear bombs, described as the first tactical nuclear KAB designed to hit hardened underground targets, is a significant strategic development in the realm of nuclear deterrence. This action signals a modernization of the US nuclear arsenal with capabilities specifically aimed at hard and underground targets, which could influence strategic calculations of potential adversaries and raise concerns about escalation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the US B61-13 guided nuclear bomb. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russian military bloggers highlighting the rise of right-wing parties in Europe and attributing it to public dissatisfaction with issues including the war in Ukraine is a form of strategic information operation. This narrative aims to portray a growing anti-war sentiment in Europe and suggest that public opinion is shifting against support for Ukraine, potentially influencing international policy debates and creating divisions within European societies. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА comments on the growth of right-wing approval in Europe. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Ukrainian military training exercises focused on night assaults, trench warfare, teamwork, and incorporating drones and EW, as highlighted by the General Staff and Air Assault Forces, are strategically important for enhancing the capabilities of Ukrainian forces. These efforts demonstrate a commitment to adapting to the demands of modern warfare and improving combat effectiveness, which is crucial for sustaining defense and potentially conducting offensive operations. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos and text about infantry training exercises for the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade. Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares a video of night assault training by soldiers of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України)
The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones highlights the continued reliance on non-governmental support for acquiring crucial military equipment and the strategic importance of these systems for Ukrainian units. This fundraising effort also indicates the ongoing needs and resource constraints faced by some Ukrainian brigades. The hint at something brewing internally within the brigade adds a layer of potential strategic relevance, suggesting possible upcoming operational changes or internal developments. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones and hints at internal developments. (‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура»)
Reports of Russian attempts to enter Kursk Oblast and Ukrainian defense actions in border regions highlight the strategic importance of maintaining control over border areas and the potential for cross-border incursions. Военкор Котенок reports Ukrainian attempts to enter Kursk Oblast near Krasnooktyabrsky and Volfino overnight with Russian defense. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video claiming Ukrainian border guard drone operations on the Kursk direction, including destruction of Russian assets. Colonelcassad shares a claim about Ukrainian soldiers attempting to escape in the Kursk border area by disguising themselves as civilians, which could be a Russian information operation related to the situation in border areas. ТАСС reports, citing Russian sources, that several Ukrainian units suffered colossal losses in battles for Belovody (Sumy Oblast), which relates to fighting in a border region. (Военкор Котенок, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, ТАСС)
The scandal in Vologda Oblast involving the daughter of a district head allegedly threatening to send people to the "SVO" is strategically significant as it highlights potential negative public perception of the conflict within Russia, concerns about fairness in the mobilization process, and potential abuses of power. This incident could be used by both Ukrainian and Russian information operations to influence domestic and international audiences regarding the state of Russian society and the impact of the war. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, and Два майора reporting on this incident further amplify its strategic significance. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Colonelcassad)
The expected adoption of the 17th package of EU sanctions against Russia, targeting the "shadow fleet" and energy trade revenues, is a significant strategic development aimed at increasing economic pressure on Russia and limiting its ability to finance the war. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on this expected development. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
The increase in the number of injured civilians in Kherson today (total of 10 reported from a drone attack on a bus and artillery shelling) and the initiation of a criminal proceeding by the Office of the Prosecutor General underscore the continued strategic impact of the conflict on civilians and the focus on documenting potential war crimes. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports a total of 10 injured civilians in Kherson today and initiated a criminal proceeding. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the increased number of injured in the bus attack and artillery shelling. (Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, STERNENKO, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Russian military bloggers promoting fundraising for units on specific directions, such as the Krasnolimanskoye direction, highlights the ongoing needs of Russian forces for equipment and resources and the role of non-governmental support in sustaining their operations. Два майора is fundraising for transport and equipment for fighters of the 3rd Motor Rifle Division on the Krasnolimanskoye direction. (Два майора)

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report