Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 20, 2025, 06:58 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment continues to be characterized by intense ground combat across multiple directions in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and potentially Sumy Oblasts, a persistent and geographically extensive Russian aerial offensive employing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs) across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, and ongoing diplomatic maneuvering intertwined with conflicting military signals, notably concerning potential negotiations and the role of international actors.
Significant new updates from the latest messages include:
Details on Russian Tactical Advances and Ukrainian Resistance: Russian sources are reporting significant tactical advances on the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian command post (65th Separate Mechanized Brigade), elimination of foreign mercenaries (claiming a company of "Mozart" PMC in Novodanylivka), capture of British and Canadian prisoners, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point, repelling a counterattack near Robotyne with destruction of Bradley IFVs, and the destruction of Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter through artillery strikes. Russian military bloggers continue to highlight claimed successes and the difficulties for Ukrainian forces on the South-Donetsk direction. A Russian military blogger claims Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone. Another Russian military blogger reports on the liberation of Bogatyr in the DNR and ongoing Russian advances on the South-Donetsk direction. A Russian military blogger reports on the use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems against a fortified Ukrainian stronghold on the South-Donetsk direction. A Russian military blogger provides an update on the Siversk direction, claiming Russian units are advancing towards Siversk on heights north of Verkhnokamyanske and have advanced in the forest belt towards Chubarovsky Pond, and have destroyed Ukrainian EW stations, communication nodes, and UAV control points. A Russian military blogger reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Nova Kruhliakivka. Ukrainian sources continue to emphasize the high rate of Russian losses.
Continued High Volume Russian Drone Attacks and Impact: The Ukrainian Air Force and ASTRA confirm a massive overnight Russian drone attack involving 108 UAVs, with 93 neutralized (35 by fire, 58 by EW), impacting Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Further reports detail Russian drone attacks in the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities in Sumy Oblast and KAB strikes on the Yunakivka community, causing damage but reportedly no casualties in these specific incidents. ASTRA also reports two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city, with the Kherson Military Administration confirming the attack and the injuries and noting route changes due to high drone activity. STERNENKO also reports on this bus attack. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report over 500 kamikaze drone strikes and around 200 drone drops in the South over the past day, highlighting the sheer volume of loitering munition and small drone activity. Russian sources claim the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones in the special operation zone. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 ground drone, and 2 UAV control antennas over the past day.
Developments Regarding Negotiations and International Support: Reports continue to circulate regarding Donald Trump's statements on the conflict, with new comments suggesting Ukraine is ready to stop the war, he needs time to assess if Kyiv is doing enough, there are "very big egos" involved, and he might step back if progress isn't made, viewing it as a European affair. He also stated he might increase arms supplies but believes in a settlement. Another report suggests Trump indicated in a conversation with Putin that he would yield the settlement role to Europe if no significant progress is made. Commentary from Russian military bloggers and media outlets are interpreting these statements, with some suggesting Trump will abandon support for Ukraine. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission has started its work in Kyiv to discuss the eighth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. A Russian military blogger highlights the rise of right-wing parties in Europe, citing election results in Portugal, and attributes this trend to public dissatisfaction with populism, migration, and the war in Ukraine, suggesting these parties "promote the interests of the people."
Continued Commemoration of Mariupul Defenders: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС commemorates the 86 days of defense and 1096 days of captivity of the Mariupol garrison, highlighting their sacrifice in delaying the Russian advance and the ongoing fight for the return of prisoners of war.
Ukrainian Military Training and Unit Activity: The Ukrainian General Staff shares photos and text about infantry training exercises for the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade, focusing on assaulting trenches, teamwork, and maintaining life. The Air Assault Forces of Ukraine share a video of night assault training by soldiers of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, emphasizing the use of night vision devices, thermal drones, communication, interaction with UAVs and EW, fire support, and tactical medicine. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is fundraising for the repair, restoration, maintenance, and purchase of new FPV and Mavic drones, emphasizing their importance for reconnaissance, targeting, and saving lives. They also hint at something brewing internally within the brigade.
Civilian Impact and War Crimes Investigation: The Office of the Prosecutor General's initiation of a pre-trial investigation into the previous day's bus attack near Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast as a war crime, now confirmed to have resulted in 9 fatalities and 4 injuries, remains a significant humanitarian and legal development. New reports confirm two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson city. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling of the Korabelnyi district of Kherson, hitting a multi-story building and injuring two civilians. РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack has increased to 5.
Russian Military Equipment Development and Use: Russian sources highlight the use of Grad MLRS near Chervone and TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems on the South-Donetsk direction. Russian sources also claim the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of a variety of Russian equipment including artillery systems, vehicles, UAVs, EW stations, a motorcycle, quad bikes, a ground drone, boats, a buggy, a generator, and antennas.
Ukrainian Civilian Resistance and Support: The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration shares a video message commemorating the daily minute of silence for those who died in the war. The Kyiv City Military Administration commemorates the death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko, who died near Bakhmut in May 2023, highlighting his service in the Territorial Defense and his character.
International Financial Support: The IMF mission starting work in Kyiv highlights continued international financial support for Ukraine.
Information Warfare and Propaganda: Both Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to utilize information operations. Ukrainian sources are commemorating fallen soldiers and key battles (Mariupol) and highlighting training efforts. Russian sources are promoting claimed military successes and advancements (drone destruction, tactical gains, use of thermobaric systems) and attempting to influence narratives around negotiations and European political shifts. ASTRA is promoting its VPN service as a way to bypass censorship in Russia. A Russian military blogger uses a historical quote to promote their channel. TASS reports on a domestic incident in the US involving a Russian hockey player. TASS reports on a scam targeting graduates using "Gosuslugi" accounts. A Russian military blogger comments on the rise of right-wing parties in Europe and links it to dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine.
US Nuclear Modernization: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the US has assembled the first of a series of new B61-13 guided nuclear bombs, noting it as the first tactical nuclear KAB designed to hit hardened underground targets. This is a significant development in US nuclear capabilities.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (Bakhmutskyi district, Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske, Pokrovsk direction, South-Donetsk direction, Bogatyr, Otradnoye, Novoukrainka, Zelenyy Kut, Novodanylivka, Robotyne, Siversk direction, Verkhnokamyenske, Chubarovsky Pond, Dzerzhinsk, Konstantinovka, Myroliubivka, Stara Mykolaivka, Romanivka, Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration, Novoekonomicheskoe, Mirnograd, Lysychansk direction): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. The death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko near Ivanivske (Bakhmutskyi district) in May 2023 is commemorated. Russian sources are reporting significant tactical advances on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions, including the liberation of Bogatyr, advances near Otradnoye, Novoukrainka, Zelenyy Kut, Novodanylivka, and the use of TOS-1A thermobaric systems against a fortified stronghold. They also claim the elimination of foreign mercenaries and capture of British and Canadian prisoners in Novodanylivka, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point in Kushugum, and repelling a counterattack near Robotyne with destruction of Bradley IFVs. Artillery strikes have reportedly destroyed Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter. Russian military bloggers highlight claimed advances and the difficulties for Ukrainian forces on the South-Donetsk direction and report on the Siversk direction, claiming advances towards Siversk and near Verkhnekamyenske, and destruction of Ukrainian EW stations, communication nodes, and UAV control points. Intense fighting continues across multiple directions as reported in previous updates. Affected by the overnight Russian aerial assault with 108 UAVs. ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack impacted Donetsk Oblast.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones on the South-Donetsk direction near Otradnoye, Novoukrainka, and Zelenyy Kut, destroying over 10 vehicles.Colonelcassad reports on the liberation of Bogatyr in the DNR on Sunday and continued Russian advances on the South-Donetsk direction.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems against a fortified Ukrainian stronghold on the South-Donetsk direction and mentions the loss of Bogatyr for Ukraine.Рыбарь's morning summary mentions ongoing intense fighting in Donetsk Oblast, particularly on the Konstantinovka direction (encircling a large pocket near Aleksandropol - Stara Mykolaivka - Romanivka), the Pokrovsk direction (battling for Myroliubivka, pressure from Malynivka, encompassing the area near Katerynivka), and southwest of Pokrovsk (battling for access to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast).Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction, claiming Russian advances towards Siversk on heights north of Verkhnekamyenske and in the forest belt towards Chubarovsky Pond, and destruction of Ukrainian EW stations, communication nodes, and UAV control points near Serebryanka.Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Nova Kruhliakivka, which is near the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), ASTRA, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Рыбарь, Военкор Котенок, Сливочный каприз)
Sumy Oblast (Bilopillia, Yunakivka communities): Affected by Russian aerial attacks. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 and ASTRA report a Russian drone attack on a civilian bus near Bilopillia resulting in 9 fatalities and 4 injuries yesterday.Офіс Генерального прокурора confirms 9 fatalities and 4 injuries from the bus attack yesterday and initiated war crimes investigation.Оперативний ЗСУ reports overnight enemy drone attacks on the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities and KAB strikes on the Yunakivka community, causing damage but no reported casualties in these specific overnight incidents.ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack impacted Sumy Oblast.Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of КАБs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. (Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ASTRA, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Pavlohrad district, Synelnykivskyi district, Nikopol district, Nikopol): Affected by Russian aerial attacks. ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack impacted Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.Север.Реалии reports a Russian drone attack impacted Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with damage to a farming enterprise in Pavlohrad district and an enterprise in Synelnykivskyi district, and damage to a power line and private house in Nikopol district.Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian "Geran" strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts and states the Russian army is approaching Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (ASTRA, Север.Реалии, Рыбарь)
Zhytomyr Oblast: Affected by the overnight Russian aerial attack. ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack impacted Zhytomyr Oblast.Север.Реалии reports a Russian drone attack impacted Zhytomyr Oblast. (ASTRA, Север.Реалии)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Novodanylivka, Robotyne, Kushugum, Chervone, Borova area, Nova Kruhliakivka, Mala Tokmachka, Hulyaipole, Scherbaki, Mali Scherbaky, Kamenka-Dneprovskaya, Tokmak, Polohy, Zaporizhzhia district): Russian sources are reporting significant tactical advances, claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian command post (65th Separate Mechanized Brigade), elimination of foreign mercenaries (claiming a company of "Mozart" PMC in Novodanylivka), capture of British and Canadian prisoners, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point in Kushugum, repelling a counterattack near Robotyne with destruction of Bradley IFVs, and the destruction of Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter through artillery strikes. A Russian military blogger claims Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is fundraising for drones, operating in this area. Previous reports (within 6hr window) mentioned Russian artillery strikes and claimed casualties inflicted on Ukrainian forces and warned of rocket/bomb danger in Tokmak and Polohy. Previous reports mentioned Russian advances in the Zaporizhzhia direction, specifically near Mala Tokmachka. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian command post (65th Separate Mechanized Brigade) near Medichne, elimination of foreign mercenaries (Mozart PMC) and capture of British and Canadian prisoners in Novodanylivka, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point in Kushugum, repelling a counterattack near Robotyne with destruction of 2 Bradley IFVs, and destruction of 3 Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter through artillery strikes.Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel, 9 artillery systems, 18 vehicles, 2 UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 motorcycle, 5 quad bikes, 1 ground drone, 3 boats, 1 buggy, 1 generator, 2 UAV control antennas, 2 communication antennas, and 2 ammunition storage locations were destroyed in the South over the past day.Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian advances in the Zaporizhzhia direction, specifically near Mala Tokmachka (advancing from the south and east, entering the settlement from the east, and taking full control of a brick factory from the south).Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», Сили оборони Півдня України, Рыбарь, Воин DV)
Kherson Oblast (Kherson city, Korabelnyi district): Affected by Russian attacks. ASTRA reports two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson, with the Kherson MVA confirming the attack and route changes due to high drone activity.STERNENKO reports on this bus attack.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling of the Korabelnyi district of Kherson, hitting a multi-story building and injuring two civilians.РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack has increased to 5.Сили оборони Півдня України report that 5 people were injured in Kherson Oblast over the past day and report over 500 kamikaze drone strikes and around 200 drone drops in the South over the past day.Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands. (ASTRA, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Сили оборони Півдня України, Басурин о главном)
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Affected by Ukrainian drone attacks. Рыбарь's morning summary mentions ongoing intense fighting and unsuccessful Ukrainian attempts to break through on the Kursk direction (Tetkino).ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the Kursk direction, claiming border guards of the "Steel Border" brigade destroyed an enemy shelter with personnel, a communication antenna, and two quad bikes over the past day. (Рыбарь, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Crimea (Perevalnoye): Previously reported Ukrainian drone attack on an ammunition depot. Рыбарь's morning summary mentions a Ukrainian drone attack on an ammunition depot in Perevalnoye, Crimea. (Рыбарь)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Previously reported Ukrainian drone and artillery terror and civilian casualties. Рыбарь's morning summary reports ongoing Ukrainian drone and artillery terror in Belgorod Oblast, with civilian casualties reported (Arkhangelskoe, Borisovka). (Рыбарь)
Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast): Previously reported fighting. Рыбарь's morning summary mentions ongoing fighting in Chasov Yar and surroundings. (Рыбарь)
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Remains extremely high and widespread. A massive overnight Russian drone attack involved 108 UAVs, with 93 neutralized (35 by fire, 58 by EW), impacting Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Russian forces are utilizing a high volume of kamikaze drones (over 500 strikes) and conducting drone drops (around 200) in the South. Russian drone attacks occurred overnight in the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities in Sumy Oblast and on a passenger bus in Kherson city, injuring two. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 ground drone, and 2 UAV control antennas over the past day. Russian sources claim the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones in the special operation zone and the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones near Zelenyy Kut and Bogatyr. Ukrainian border guards claimed the destruction of two quad bikes and a communication antenna on the Kursk direction over the past day, likely involving drones. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones, highlighting their importance. ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack involved 108 UAVs, with 93 neutralized (35 by fire, 58 by EW).Оперативний ЗСУ reports overnight enemy drone attacks on the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities.ASTRA reports two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson.STERNENKO reports on the Kherson bus attack.Сили оборони Півдня України report over 500 kamikaze drone strikes and around 200 drone drops in the South over the past day, and the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 ground drone, and 2 UAV control antennas.ТАСС shares a video claiming FPV drones "Rubikon" destroy Ukrainian UAVs.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority by destroying enemy reconnaissance UAVs.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the Kursk direction, claiming border guards destroyed two quad bikes and a communication antenna, likely with drones.‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones.Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands where a Russian soldier survived a drone attack and captured a Ukrainian soldier, using an anti-drone blanket for evacuation. (ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Сили оборони Півдня України, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», Басурин о главном)
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense neutralized 93 out of 108 Russian UAVs (35 by fire, 58 by EW) overnight. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 ground drone, and 2 UAV control antennas over the past day, indicating Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian aerial assets. Russian sources claim the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones. ASTRA reports 93 UAVs were neutralized (35 by fire, 58 by EW) out of 108 targeted means of air attack.Сили оборони Півдня України report the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs and 2 EW stations.ТАСС shares a video claiming FPV drones "Rubikon" destroy Ukrainian UAVs.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority by destroying enemy reconnaissance UAVs. (ASTRA, Сили оборони Півдня України, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian forces used KABs on the Yunakivka community in Sumy Oblast overnight. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of КАБs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports threat of aviation weapons (likely including KABs) for frontline oblasts due to tactical aviation activity on the northern and northeastern directions. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the US has assembled the first of a series of new B61-13 guided nuclear bombs, noting it as the first tactical nuclear KAB. Оперативний ЗСУ reports KAB strikes on the Yunakivka community.Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of КАБs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the US B61-13 guided nuclear bomb. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active on the northern and northeastern directions, with a threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. Russian tactical aviation launched КАБs on Sumy Oblast overnight. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report 9 aviation strikes in the South over the past day. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of КАБs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts.Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming an air strike by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the lens of a drone of the 30th Separate Mechanized Brigade.Сили оборони Півдня України report 9 aviation strikes in the South over the past day. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Electronic Warfare (EW): 58 Russian UAVs were locationally lost or suppressed by EW overnight. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of 2 EW stations and 2 communication antennas over the past day, indicating Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian capabilities. ASTRA reports 58 UAVs were locationally lost or suppressed by EW.Сили оборони Півдня України report the destruction of 2 EW stations and 2 communication antennas.Военкор Котенок reports the destruction of two EW stations and three communication nodes near Serebryanka. (ASTRA, Сили оборони Півдня України, Военкор Котенок)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Russian forces are reportedly using Grad MLRS near Chervone and artillery strikes have reportedly destroyed Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Russian artillery shelling of the Korabelnyi district of Kherson injured two civilians. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report 9 artillery systems destroyed over the past day. Ukrainian border guards claimed the destruction of a shelter with personnel on the Kursk direction over the past day, likely involving artillery. Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling of the Korabelnyi district of Kherson.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the Kursk direction, claiming border guards destroyed an enemy shelter with personnel, likely with artillery.Сили оборони Півдня України report 9 artillery systems destroyed over the past day. (Воин DV, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Donald Trump continues to make statements about potential negotiations and Ukraine's readiness to end the war. Reports suggest he might step back if progress isn't made and could yield the settlement role to Europe. Russian commentary interprets these statements. The IMF mission starting in Kyiv is a diplomatic development related to financial support. РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement that he thinks Zelenskyy wants to stop the war and he will assess in two weeks if Ukraine is doing enough, and his comments about needing time to make conclusions.РБК-Україна reports Trump admitting the possibility of US withdrawal from negotiations if they can't help, citing "very big egos."Два майора reports that American journalists believe Trump will abandon support for Ukraine.Басурин о главном shares commentary from Bild and Financial Times on the Trump-Putin conversation, with differing interpretations of the outcomes and challenges.РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5, which impacts the humanitarian context of any negotiations. (РБК-Україна, Два майора, Басурин о главном)
Russia-United States Relations: Donald Trump is making statements regarding the conflict and potential US involvement in negotiations, including possibly stepping back or yielding the settlement role to Europe. РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement that he thinks Zelenskyy wants to stop the war and he will assess in two weeks if Ukraine is doing enough.РБК-Україна reports Trump admitting the possibility of US withdrawal from negotiations if they can't help.Два майора reports that American journalists believe Trump will abandon support for Ukraine.Басурин о главном shares commentary from Bild and Financial Times on the Trump-Putin conversation, with differing interpretations of the outcomes. (РБК-Україна, Два майора, Басурин о главном)
Internal Russian Politics: ASTRA promotes its VPN service to bypass censorship. A Russian military blogger comments on the rise of right-wing parties in Europe and links it to dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine. TASS reports on a domestic incident in the US involving a Russian hockey player. TASS reports on a scam targeting graduates using "Gosuslugi" accounts. TASS reports former Roscosmos head Borisov was appointed senator from Arkhangelsk Oblast. ASTRA promotes its VPN service.«Зона СВО» shares a photo message.ТАСС reports on the detention of Russian hockey player Alexander Alekseev in the US.ASTRA promotes its VPN service.Два майора reports that American journalists believe Trump will abandon support for Ukraine.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА comments on the growth of right-wing approval in Europe.Север.Реалии reports on the overnight Russian drone attack impacting various oblasts.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority.ТАСС reports former Roscosmos head Borisov was appointed senator from Arkhangelsk Oblast.РБК-Україна reports the IMF mission started work in Kyiv.ТАСС reports on a scam targeting graduates. (ASTRA, «Зона СВО», ТАСС, Два майора, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Север.Реалии, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна)
European Political Shifts: A Russian military blogger highlights the rise of right-wing parties in Europe, citing election results in Portugal, and attributes this trend to public dissatisfaction with populism, migration, and the war in Ukraine. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА comments on the growth of right-wing approval in Europe. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
International Financial Support: The IMF mission has started its work in Kyiv to discuss the eighth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. РБК-Україна reports the IMF mission started work in Kyiv. (РБК-Україна)
Information Warfare and Propaganda: Both Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to utilize information operations. Ukrainian sources are commemorating fallen soldiers and key battles (Mariupol) and highlighting training efforts and fundraising. Russian sources are promoting claimed military successes and advancements (drone destruction, tactical gains, use of thermobaric systems) and attempting to influence narratives around negotiations and European political shifts. ASTRA is promoting its VPN service as a way to bypass censorship in Russia. A Russian military blogger uses a historical quote to promote their channel. A Russian military blogger comments on the rise of right-wing parties in Europe and links it to dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine. ASTRA promotes its VPN service.«Зона СВО» shares a photo message and a video.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for Starlink stations.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones and shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority.Colonelcassad reports on the liberation of Bogatyr.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A.РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement that he thinks Zelenskyy wants to stop the war and his comments about needing time to make conclusions, and his comments about needing time to make conclusions.Новости Москвы reports on changes in soft drink production.Басурин о главном shares commentary from Bild and Financial Times on the Trump-Putin conversation and shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands.Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 comments on FPV drone reach in Kherson.Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming an air strike and commemorates the defense of Mariupol and captivity of the Azov garrison and shares a video of Trump's statement.Сили оборони Півдня України report Russian losses.ASTRA promotes its VPN service and reports two people injured in the Kherson bus attack.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА comments on the growth of right-wing approval in Europe.Север.Реалии reports on the overnight Russian drone attack impacting various oblasts.‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for drones and hints at internal developments.Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling in Kherson and on the Kursk direction, and reports on the US B61-13 guided nuclear bomb.РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5 and the IMF mission started work in Kyiv.Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction. (ASTRA, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, РБК-Україна, Новости Москвы, Басурин о главном, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Север.Реалии, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», Сливочный каприз, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Военкор Котенок)
US Nuclear Modernization: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports the US has assembled the first of a series of new B61-13 guided nuclear bombs, noting it as the first tactical nuclear KAB designed to hit hardened underground targets. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the US B61-13 guided nuclear bomb. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security: ASTRA promotes its VPN service to bypass censorship. TASS reports on a scam targeting graduates using "Gosuslugi" accounts. ASTRA promotes its VPN service.ТАСС reports on a scam targeting graduates. (ASTRA, ТАСС)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces are reporting significant tactical advances on the Zaporizhzhia and South-Donetsk directions, claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian command post, elimination and capture of foreign mercenaries, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point, repelling a counterattack, and destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles. They also claim the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones and the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones. Russian forces are reportedly using Grad MLRS and TOS-1A thermobaric systems. Russian military bloggers highlight claimed successes and advancements. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of a significant amount of Russian equipment, including artillery systems, vehicles, UAVs, and EW stations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian command post, elimination of foreign mercenaries and capture of British and Canadian prisoners, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point, repelling a counterattack with destruction of 2 Bradley IFVs, and destruction of 3 Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter through artillery strikes.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones on the South-Donetsk direction near Otradnoye, Novoukrainka, and Zelenyy Kut, destroying over 10 vehicles.Colonelcassad reports on the liberation of Bogatyr in the DNR on Sunday and continued Russian advances on the South-Donetsk direction.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems against a fortified Ukrainian stronghold on the South-Donetsk direction and mentions the loss of Bogatyr for Ukraine.ТАСС shares a video claiming FPV drones "Rubikon" destroy Ukrainian UAVs.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority by destroying enemy reconnaissance UAVs.Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian advances in Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and ongoing intense fighting on the Kursk direction, and that the Russian army is approaching Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone.Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction, claiming Russian advances towards Siversk and near Verkhnekamyenske, and destruction of Ukrainian EW stations, communication nodes, and UAV control points near Serebryanka.Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel, 9 artillery systems, 18 vehicles, 2 UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 motorcycle, 5 quad bikes, 1 ground drone, 3 boats, 1 buggy, 1 generator, 2 UAV control antennas, 2 communication antennas, and 2 ammunition storage locations were destroyed in the South over the past day.Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Nova Kruhliakivka.Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands where a Russian soldier survived a drone attack and captured a Ukrainian soldier, using an anti-drone blanket for evacuation. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Рыбарь, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Сили оборони Півдня України, Сливочный каприз, Басурин о главном)
Casualties: Russian sources are reporting significant claimed Ukrainian personnel losses on the Zaporizhzhia direction, including the elimination and capture of foreign mercenaries. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report 77 Russian personnel losses over the past day. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming elimination of foreign mercenaries (Mozart PMC) and capture of British and Canadian prisoners in Novodanylivka.Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel were destroyed over the past day. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources continue to engage in information operations, promoting claimed military successes and advancements and attempting to influence narratives around negotiations and European political shifts. They are utilizing videos and commentary from military bloggers. ASTRA promotes its VPN service as a way to bypass censorship. A Russian military blogger uses a historical quote to promote their channel. A Russian military blogger comments on the rise of right-wing parties in Europe and links it to dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine. TASS reports on a domestic incident in the US involving a Russian hockey player. TASS reports on a scam targeting graduates using "Gosuslugi" accounts. TASS reports former Roscosmos head Borisov was appointed senator from Arkhangelsk Oblast. ASTRA promotes its VPN service.«Зона СВО» shares a photo message and a video.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for Starlink stations and reports on claimed military successes and personnel losses on the Zaporizhzhia direction.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones and shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority.Colonelcassad reports on the liberation of Bogatyr.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A.РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement that he thinks Zelenskyy wants to stop the war and his comments about needing time to make conclusions.Новости Москвы reports on changes in soft drink production.Басурин о главном shares commentary from Bild and Financial Times on the Trump-Putin conversation and shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands.Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 comments on FPV drone reach in Kherson.Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming an air strike and commemorates the defense of Mariupol and captivity of the Azov garrison and shares a video of Trump's statement.Сили оборони Півдня України report Russian losses.ASTRA promotes its VPN service and reports two people injured in the Kherson bus attack.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА comments on the growth of right-wing approval in Europe.Север.Реалии reports on the overnight Russian drone attack impacting various oblasts.‼️47 окрема механізована бриgada «Маґура» is fundraising for drones and hints at internal developments.Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling in Kherson and on the Kursk direction, and reports on the US B61-13 guided nuclear bomb.РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5 and the IMF mission started work in Kyiv.Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone, and reports on the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones.Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction. (ASTRA, «Зона СВО», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, РБК-Україна, Новости Москвы, Басурин о главном, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Север.Реалии, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», Сливочный каприз, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок)
Political Appointments: Former Roscosmos head Borisov was appointed senator from Arkhangelsk Oblast. ТАСС reports former Roscosmos head Borisov was appointed senator from Arkhangelsk Oblast. (ТАСС)
Economic Issues (Indirect): Новости Москвы reports on changes in soft drink production due to increased excise tax, an internal economic issue. Новости Москвы reports on changes in soft drink production. (Новости Москвы)
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Military Support (Ukraine): The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones. Ukrainian military bloggers are highlighting training efforts. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones. (‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура»)
Civilian Support (Ukraine): The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration shares a video message commemorating those who died in the war. The Kyiv City Military Administration commemorates the death of a Ukrainian soldier. Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure, including a bus in Kherson and buildings in Kherson and Sumy Oblasts, highlight the continued need for civilian support and aid. The increasing number of injured civilians in Kherson reinforces this need. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video message commemorating those who died in the war.КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) commemorates the death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko.ASTRA reports two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson.STERNENKO reports on the Kherson bus attack.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling in Kherson, injuring two civilians.РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5.Сили оборони Півдня України report 5 people were injured in Kherson Oblast over the past day. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), ASTRA, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Military Support (Russia): Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment, including Starlink stations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for Starlink stations. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Reconstruction and Recovery (Ukraine): Reports of damaged civilian infrastructure in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts due to Russian drone and KAB strikes highlight the need for reconstruction efforts. Оперативний ЗСУ reports damage to a civilian object and two residential buildings in Sumy Oblast.Север.Реалии reports damage to farming and other enterprises and a power line and private house in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Север.Реалии)
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults and widespread aerial attacks, inflicting casualties and claiming destruction of Russian equipment. Conducting training exercises focused on night assaults, trench warfare, teamwork, and incorporating drones and EW. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is fundraising for drones. Ukrainian border guards claimed the destruction of a shelter with personnel, a communication antenna, and two quad bikes on the Kursk direction over the past day, likely involving drone and artillery tactics. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of a significant amount of Russian equipment, including artillery systems, vehicles, UAVs, and EW stations, and repelling attacks in the South. They also report the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 ground drone, and 2 UAV control antennas over the past day, indicating Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian aerial assets. The Ukrainian General Staff shares photos of infantry training. The Air Assault Forces of Ukraine share a video of night assault training. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 shares a video message commemorating those who died in the war.КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) commemorates the death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko.Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video claiming an air strike by the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel, 9 artillery systems, 18 vehicles, 2 UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 motorcycle, 5 quad bikes, 1 ground drone, 3 boats, 1 buggy, 1 generator, 2 UAV control antennas, 2 communication antennas, and 2 ammunition storage locations were destroyed in the South over the past day.‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones and hints at internal developments.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the Kursk direction, claiming border guards destroyed an enemy shelter with personnel, a communication antenna, and two quad bikes over the past day.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos and text about infantry training exercises for the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade.Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares a video of night assault training by soldiers of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Оперативний ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України)
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults and widespread aerial attacks with drones and KABs. Reporting significant claimed tactical advances on the Zaporizhzhia and South-Donetsk directions, including the destruction of a Ukrainian command post, elimination and capture of foreign mercenaries, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point, repelling a counterattack, and destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles and Leopard tanks. Claiming the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones and the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones. Reportedly using Grad MLRS and TOS-1A thermobaric systems. Military bloggers are highlighting claimed successes and advancements. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of a significant amount of Russian equipment. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian command post, elimination of foreign mercenaries and capture of British and Canadian prisoners, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point, repelling a counterattack with destruction of 2 Bradley IFVs, and destruction of 3 Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter through artillery strikes. He is also fundraising for Starlink stations.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones on the South-Donetsk direction near Otradnoye, Novoukrainka, and Zelenyy Kut, destroying over 10 vehicles.Colonelcassad reports on the liberation of Bogatyr in the DNR on Sunday and continued Russian advances on the South-Donetsk direction.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems against a fortified Ukrainian stronghold on the South-Donetsk direction and mentions the loss of Bogatyr for Ukraine.ТАСС shares a video claiming FPV drones "Rubikon" destroy Ukrainian UAVs.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority by destroying enemy reconnaissance UAVs.Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian advances in Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and ongoing intense fighting on the Kursk direction, and that the Russian army is approaching Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone, and reports on the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones.Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction, claiming Russian advances towards Siversk and near Verkhnekamyenske, and destruction of Ukrainian EW stations, communication nodes, and UAV control points near Serebryanka.Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel, 9 artillery systems, 18 vehicles, 2 UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 motorcycle, 5 quad bikes, 1 ground drone, 3 boats, 1 buggy, 1 generator, 2 UAV control antennas, 2 communication antennas, and 2 ammunition storage locations were destroyed in the South over the past day.Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Nova Kruhliakivka.Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands where a Russian soldier survived a drone attack and captured a Ukrainian soldier, using an anti-drone blanket for evacuation. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Рыбарь, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Сили оборони Півдня України, Сливочный каприз, Басурин о главном)
Third-Party Involvement: Donald Trump is making statements regarding the conflict and potential US involvement in negotiations. Foreign mercenaries are reported to be fighting in Ukraine. The IMF mission has started its work in Kyiv. Right-wing parties in Europe are gaining support. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the elimination and capture of foreign mercenaries (Mozart PMC) in Novodanylivka, including British and Canadian prisoners.РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement that he thinks Zelenskyy wants to stop the war and his comments about needing time to make conclusions.РБК-Україна reports Trump admitting the possibility of US withdrawal from negotiations if they can't help.Два майора reports that American journalists believe Trump will abandon support for Ukraine.Басурин о главном shares commentary from Bild and Financial Times on the Trump-Putin conversation.РБК-Україна reports the IMF mission started work in Kyiv.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА comments on the growth of right-wing approval in Europe. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, РБК-Україна, Два майора, Басурин о главном, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of various types of drones by both sides (strike UAVs, FPV drones, reconnaissance drones, ground drones, "Baba Yaga" types). Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs, artillery, MLRS (Grad), and thermobaric systems (TOS-1A). Russian sources claim the destruction of Ukrainian UAVs by Russian "Rubikon" FPV drones. Ukrainian forces are using drones for targeting and have claimed the destruction of Russian equipment and personnel. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report the destruction of a variety of Russian equipment including artillery systems, vehicles, UAVs, and EW stations. Ukrainian border guards claimed the destruction of a shelter with personnel, a communication antenna, and two quad bikes on the Kursk direction over the past day, likely involving drone and artillery tactics. The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones. Ukrainian military bloggers are highlighting training efforts incorporating drones and EW. ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack involved 108 UAVs, with 93 neutralized (35 by fire, 58 by EW).Оперативний ЗСУ reports overnight enemy drone attacks on the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities and KAB strikes on the Yunakivka community.ASTRA reports two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson.STERNENKO reports on the Kherson bus attack.Сили оборони Півдня України report over 500 kamikaze drone strikes and around 200 drone drops in the South over the past day, and the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 ground drone, 2 UAV control antennas, 9 artillery systems, 18 vehicles, 1 motorcycle, 5 quad bikes, 1 buggy, 1 generator, and 2 ammunition storage locations.ТАСС shares a video claiming FPV drones "Rubikon" destroy Ukrainian UAVs.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones on the South-Donetsk direction, destroying over 10 vehicles, and shares a video claiming "Rubikon" conquers air superiority.Colonelcassad reports on Russian advances and the use of TOS-1A on the South-Donetsk direction.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems against a fortified Ukrainian stronghold on the South-Donetsk direction.Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of КАБs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts.‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling in Kherson and on the Kursk direction, claiming border guards destroyed an enemy shelter, a communication antenna, and two quad bikes over the past day.РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5.Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone, and reports on the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones.Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction, claiming destruction of Ukrainian EW stations, communication nodes, and UAV control points near Serebryanka.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos and text about infantry training exercises for the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade, focusing on assaulting trenches and teamwork.Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares a video of night assault training by soldiers of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, emphasizing the use of night vision devices, thermal drones, communication, interaction with UAVs and EW, and fire support.Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands where a Russian soldier survived a drone attack and captured a Ukrainian soldier, using an anti-drone blanket for evacuation. (ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Сили оборони Півдня України, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Басурин о главном)
Personnel: Russian sources are reporting significant claimed Ukrainian personnel losses on the Zaporizhzhia direction, including the elimination and capture of foreign mercenaries. The Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine report 77 Russian personnel losses over the past day. The Kyiv City Military Administration commemorates the death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko. The Ukrainian General Staff shares photos of soldiers training. The Air Assault Forces of Ukraine share a video of soldiers training. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming elimination of foreign mercenaries (Mozart PMC) and capture of British and Canadian prisoners in Novodanylivka.Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel were destroyed over the past day and report 5 people were injured in Kherson Oblast over the past day.КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) commemorates the death of Senior Soldier Andrii Kalchenko.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos and text about infantry training exercises for the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade.Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares a video of night assault training by soldiers of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade.Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands where a Russian soldier survived a drone attack and captured a Ukrainian soldier.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling in Kherson, injuring two civilians.РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5.Воин DV claims that three AFU servicemen were killed during a disrupted rotation on the Zaporizhzhia direction, and reports on the destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points and "Baba Yaga" drones near Zelenyy Kut and Bogatyr, resulting in 7 Ukrainian servicemen killed. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Сили оборони Півдня України, КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Басурин о главном, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Воин DV)
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The massive overnight Russian drone offensive involving 108 UAVs across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, with 93 neutralized, and reported impacts in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts, is a significant strategic event. It demonstrates Russia's continued capacity to launch large-scale aerial assaults aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses and striking targets across a wide geographical area. The use of EW to neutralize a large number of these drones highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian countermeasures and the evolving nature of aerial warfare. The reported impacts across multiple oblasts highlight the widespread nature of the threat and the strategic objective of pressuring Ukraine across various regions. The scale of kamikaze drone strikes and drone drops in the South further emphasizes this strategic objective. ASTRA reports the overnight Russian drone attack involved 108 UAVs, with 93 neutralized (35 by fire, 58 by EW), impacting Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts.Оперативний ЗСУ reports overnight enemy drone attacks on the Bilopillia and Yunakivka communities and KAB strikes on the Yunakivka community.Сили оборони Півдня України report over 500 kamikaze drone strikes and around 200 drone drops in the South over the past day, and the destruction of 2 Ukrainian UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 ground drone, and 2 UAV control antennas.Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of КАБs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts.Север.Реалии reports on the overnight Russian drone attack impacting various oblasts with damage. (ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Север.Реалии)
Russian sources reporting significant tactical advances on the Zaporizhzhia and South-Donetsk directions, including claims of destroying a Ukrainian command post, eliminating and capturing foreign mercenaries, destroying equipment (Bradley, Leopard tanks), and capturing prisoners, are strategically significant as they aim to portray a narrative of Russian military success and momentum. If these claims are verified, they could impact the strategic situation on these key fronts, potentially leading to shifts in the front line and requiring adjustments in Ukrainian defensive strategies. The claimed use of TOS-1A thermobaric systems highlights a tactic employed by Russia for engaging fortified positions, which has strategic implications for urban and defensive warfare. The claimed liberation of Bogatyr is a key territorial gain for Russia on the South-Donetsk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on the Zaporizhzhia direction, claiming destruction of a Ukrainian command post, elimination of foreign mercenaries and capture of British and Canadian prisoners, destruction of ammunition depots and a refueling point, repelling a counterattack with destruction of 2 Bradley IFVs, and destruction of 3 Leopard tanks and a fortified shelter through artillery strikes.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports night hunting on enemy transport with drones on the South-Donetsk direction, destroying over 10 vehicles.Colonelcassad reports on the liberation of Bogatyr in the DNR on Sunday and continued Russian advances on the South-Donetsk direction.Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on the use of TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" thermobaric systems against a fortified Ukrainian stronghold on the South-Donetsk direction and mentions the loss of Bogatyr for Ukraine.Рыбарь's morning summary reports Russian advances in Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and ongoing intense fighting on the Kursk direction, and that the Russian army is approaching Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.Воин DV claims that Russian units of the 38th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian positions with Grad MLRS near Chervone.Военкор Котенок reports on the Siversk direction, claiming Russian advances towards Siversk and near Verkhnekamyenske.Сили оборони Півдня України report that 77 Russian personnel, 9 artillery systems, 18 vehicles, 2 UAVs, 2 EW stations, 1 motorcycle, 5 quad bikes, 1 ground drone, 3 boats, 1 buggy, 1 generator, 2 UAV control antennas, 2 communication antennas, and 2 ammunition storage locations were destroyed in the South over the past day, presenting a Ukrainian perspective on Russian losses.Сливочный каприз reports active combat in the Borova area and the successful targeting of a Ukrainian armored vehicle near Nova Kruhliakivka.Басурин о главном shares a video and text about a combat incident on the Dnipro islands where a Russian soldier survived a drone attack and captured a Ukrainian soldier. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Рыбарь, Воин DV, Военкор Котенок, Сили оборони Півдня України, Сливочный каприз, Басурин о главном)
Donald Trump's statements on the conflict and potential US involvement in negotiations, particularly his comments about Ukraine's readiness to end the war, assessing Kyiv's actions, the involvement of "very big egos," and the possibility of stepping back or yielding the settlement role to Europe, are strategically significant. These statements from a former US President with potential future political influence can impact international perceptions of the conflict, influence the dynamics of potential negotiations, and potentially create divisions among Ukraine's international partners. Russian commentary on these statements reflects ongoing information operations aimed at exploiting any perceived shifts in US policy. РБК-Україна reports Trump's statement that he thinks Zelenskyy wants to stop the war and his comments about needing time to make conclusions, and his comments about needing time to make conclusions.РБК-Україна reports Trump admitting the possibility of US withdrawal from negotiations if they can't help.Два майора reports that American journalists believe Trump will abandon support for Ukraine.Басурин о главном shares commentary from Bild and Financial Times on the Trump-Putin conversation, with differing interpretations of the outcomes. (РБК-Україна, Два майора, Басурин о главном)
The commemoration of the defense of Mariupol and the captivity of the Azov garrison is a significant strategic communication effort by Ukraine. It serves to honor the sacrifice of Ukrainian defenders, maintain public awareness of the ongoing issue of prisoners of war, and reinforce the narrative of Ukrainian resilience and resistance in the face of overwhelming force. This act of remembrance is crucial for national morale and identity. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС commemorates the 86 days of defense and 1096 days of captivity of the Mariupol garrison. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
The IMF mission starting its work in Kyiv is strategically significant as it highlights the continuation of international financial support for Ukraine. This support is crucial for maintaining Ukraine's economic stability during the conflict and for potential post-war recovery. РБК-Україна reports the IMF mission started work in Kyiv. (РБК-Україна)
The tragic human cost of the conflict, as highlighted by the confirmation of 9 fatalities and 4 injuries from yesterday's bus attack in Sumy Oblast, and the new reports of injured civilians in Kherson due to drone and artillery attacks (including an increase to 5 injured in the bus attack), continues to be a major strategic consideration. These incidents underscore the impact of the conflict on civilians, raise concerns about potential war crimes, and fuel international condemnation of Russian actions. They also influence humanitarian efforts and potentially evacuation strategies. ASTRA reports two people injured in a Russian drone attack on a passenger bus in Kherson.STERNENKO reports on the Kherson bus attack.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Russian artillery shelling in Kherson, injuring two civilians.РБК-Україна reports the number of injured in the Kherson bus attack increased to 5.Сили оборони Півдня України report 5 people were injured in Kherson Oblast over the past day. (ASTRA, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Сили оборони Півдня України)
The US assembling the first of a series of new B61-13 guided nuclear bombs, described as the first tactical nuclear KAB designed to hit hardened underground targets, is a significant strategic development in the realm of nuclear deterrence. This action signals a modernization of the US nuclear arsenal with capabilities specifically aimed at hard and underground targets, which could influence strategic calculations of potential adversaries and raise concerns about escalation. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on the US B61-13 guided nuclear bomb. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russian military bloggers highlighting the rise of right-wing parties in Europe and attributing it to public dissatisfaction with issues including the war in Ukraine is a form of strategic information operation. This narrative aims to portray a growing anti-war sentiment in Europe and suggest that public opinion is shifting against support for Ukraine, potentially influencing international policy debates and creating divisions within European societies. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА comments on the growth of right-wing approval in Europe. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Ukrainian military training exercises focused on night assaults, trench warfare, teamwork, and incorporating drones and EW, as highlighted by the General Staff and Air Assault Forces, are strategically important for enhancing the capabilities of Ukrainian forces. These efforts demonstrate a commitment to adapting to the demands of modern warfare and improving combat effectiveness, which is crucial for sustaining defense and potentially conducting offensive operations. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares photos and text about infantry training exercises for the 21st Separate Mechanized Brigade.Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України shares a video of night assault training by soldiers of the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України)
The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones highlights the continued reliance on non-governmental support for acquiring crucial military equipment and the strategic importance of these systems for Ukrainian units. This fundraising effort also indicates the ongoing needs and resource constraints faced by some Ukrainian brigades. The hint at something brewing internally within the brigade adds a layer of potential strategic relevance, suggesting possible upcoming operational changes or internal developments. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for FPV and Mavic drones and hints at internal developments. (‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура»)
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
