Sitrep 2025-05-20 01:59:47

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 20, 2025, 01:57 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be characterized by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, and persistent widespread Russian aerial attacks utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs) across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. The diplomatic front continues to be dominated by the aftermath of the concluded telephone conversation between "Putin" and US President Donald Trump, with new interpretations and ongoing commentary from various sources. New reports indicate the formation of a pro-Russian volunteer detachment composed of former Ukrainian servicemen. Additionally, there are new developments regarding potential Chinese involvement in advanced artillery munitions development and continued widespread Russian drone activity, including new threats identified in Ukrainian oblasts previously less affected. The latest messages provide detailed updates on the continued, widespread Russian aerial assault across central and eastern Ukraine, including new launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy and the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, and further insights into the complex and dynamic drone movements across Kyiv, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Recent messages continue to provide granular detail on Russian drone movements, particularly converging on the Zhytomyr area and in the intersection of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts. There are also new claims from Russia regarding alleged Ukrainian military crimes in Kursk Oblast and commentary from Donald Trump characterizing his phone call with Putin.

Significant new updates from the latest messages include:

Further Detailed Russian Drone Movements Towards Zhytomyr and Western Oblasts: Николаевский Ванёк provides further detailed breakdowns of drone movements, noting:
- 1 drone still heading towards Zhytomyr.
- 7 drones circling at the intersection of Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Kyiv Oblasts.
- 1 drone west of Smila (Cherkasy Oblast) with a southern course. Further updates from Николаевский Ванёк specify:
- 5 more drones heading towards Ozerne/Zhytomyr.
- 4 drones finishing circling and also heading in the same direction (towards Ozerne/Zhytomyr). These updates emphasize a continued and potentially intensifying Russian drone focus on the Zhytomyr area and illustrate the complex maneuvering of drone groups before converging on targets.
Russian Claim of Ukrainian Military Crimes in Kursk Oblast: ТАСС reports that the chairman of the International Public Tribunal on the Crimes of Ukrainian Neonazis, Maxim Grigoryev, stated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine committed several tens of thousands of military crimes during the occupation of Kursk Oblast. This is a new and significant claim from a Russian source, framed within the context of alleged "crimes," and is likely part of a broader information operation.
Donald Trump's Characterization of Call with Putin: ТАСС shares a photo message quoting Donald Trump describing his phone call with Putin as a "pleasant gentleman." This personal characterization of the interaction provides insight into the tone and perhaps perceived outcome of the high-level diplomatic exchange from Trump's perspective.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, South-Donetsk direction, Romanovka, Krymske, Novoye, Novoolenovka, Dzerzhynsk, Konstantinovka, Myrnograd, Novoekonomicheskoe, Siversk, Verkhnokamyanske, Hryhorivka, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Lysychansk direction, border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Russia claims tactical advances near Otradnoye and in Bogatyr, and on the Dzerzhynsk and Konstantinovka directions, including entering Romanovka and clearing areas north of Krymske. Russia claims capturing a key Ukrainian stronghold near Novoye. Russia claims the liberation of Novoolenovka. Russian military bloggers are highlighting claimed advances on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions, stating the situation is becoming significantly more complicated for Ukrainian forces east and northeast of the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration, with fighting reportedly shifting closer to Novoekonomicheskoe near Mirnograd and Russian forces moving towards Konstantinovka. Ukrainian sources highlight the effectiveness of their drone units and report successful drone strikes on Russian logistics and against Russian infantry, a quad bike, and a "loaf" vehicle. They also claim the destruction of Russian drone teams and a UAV command post on the right bank of the Dnipro river using Grad MLRS and the burning of a Russian T-72B3 tank on the Lyman direction. Russian sources highlight the use of RSZO "Uragan" systems and Grad MLRS. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 156 combat engagements over the past day across multiple fronts, with particularly intense fighting on the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, and Toretsk directions. Russian military bloggers are also highlighting the destruction of Ukrainian equipment, including Bradley and MaxxPro vehicles, near Pokrovsk. Russian strike UAVs are active in western Donetsk Oblast heading northeast and in northern Donetsk Oblast heading southwest. Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. New launches of guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast are reported. Николаевский Ванёк reports Russian drone groups heading towards Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Konstantinovka. Сливочный каприз reports active combat north of Verkhnokamyenske and claimed a Russian advance of up to 600 meters on the Hryhorivka-Verkhnokamyenske line. New reports indicate strike UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, course - south/southwest, potentially impacting northern Donetsk Oblast. New launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Народная милиция ДНР, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Сливочный каприз, Николаевский Ванёк)
Sumy Oblast (Sumy, Maryino, Loknya, Okhtyrka): Affected by Russian aerial activity and ground assaults. Russian strike UAVs are active in central and southern Sumy Oblast (southwest/southeast course) and on the border of Sumy and Poltava Oblasts (southeast course), with some heading towards Sumy city. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Multiple groups of Russian UAVs are reported from Sumy Oblast moving towards Chernihiv Oblast. Russia claims the liberation of Maryino and the creation of a "buffer zone" in Belgorod Oblast near Popovka and Demidovka. New Russian strike UAVs are reported in central Sumy Oblast heading southwest. Сливочный каприз reports positional fighting in the area of Sudzha and claimed that Russian forces have expanded their zone of control in the "Sumy security zone" and advanced up to 400 meters in Loknya. Николаевский Ванёк reports Russian drone groups in the area of Okhtyrka. New reports indicate a hostile reconnaissance UAV in southern Sumy Oblast. New launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна confirms the launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, affecting frontline regions which include parts of Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that before withdrawing from Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces left multi-layered mine obstacles in border areas adjacent to Sumy Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, MoD Russia, Сливочный каприз, Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad)
Kharkiv Oblast (western part, southern part, eastern part, northwestern part): Affected by Russian aerial activity and ground assaults. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs are reported in the north of Kharkiv Oblast. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Kharkiv Oblast from the east. Enemy strike UAVs are active on the border of Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts (east course) and are a threat to Kharkiv Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Kharkiv Oblast. Russian strike UAVs are reported in southern Kharkiv Oblast heading northeast and in eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading west/southwest, and in northwestern Kharkiv Oblast heading southwest. New reports indicate Russian strike UAVs in the eastern and central parts of Kharkiv Oblast moving westward/southwestward. New reports indicate strike UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, course - south/southwest. New launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, affecting frontline regions which include parts of Kharkiv Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district, Pavlohrad, eastern part): Affected by Russian aerial activity, including KAB strikes and drone movements. Enemy strike UAVs are active in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (northeast course) and are a threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with some heading towards Pavlohrad. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian strike UAVs are reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast southwest of Pavlohrad heading south and in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading southeast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Sudzha): Affected by Ukrainian cross-border attacks and claimed Russian defensive actions. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 10 Russian attacks repelled on the Kursk direction with aviation strikes and artillery/MLRS fire. Colonelcassad claims the use of a North Korean 170-mm self-propelled artillery system "Koksan" in the SVO, likely in Kursk Oblast. Сливочный каприз reports positional fighting in the area of Sudzha. Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that before withdrawing from Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces left multi-layered mine obstacles in border areas adjacent to Sumy Oblast, particularly noting extensive mining closer to Sudzha. ТАСС reports a claim that the Armed Forces of Ukraine committed several tens of thousands of military crimes during the occupation of Kursk Oblast. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, Сливочный каприз, ТАСС)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (Popovka, Demidovka): Affected by Ukrainian drone attacks. Russia claims the creation of a "buffer zone" here.
Crimea (Dzhankoy, northern part, Simferopol): Experiencing a massive Ukrainian drone attack overnight. RBC-Ukraine reports a loud explosion in Simferopol. Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Рыбарь, ТАСС, Два майора, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Воин DV)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaporizhzhia city): Affected by Russian aerial activity, including KAB strikes and drone movements. Air raid alert issued in communities except for Zaporizhzhia city due to air activity. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are active in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast (east course) and are a threat to Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air raid alert declared across Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding Zaporizhzhia city). Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The new volunteer detachment claims to fight for "native Zaporizhzhia." (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Воин DV)
Chernihiv Oblast (southeastern part, eastern part, Chernihiv): Affected by Russian aerial activity. Enemy strike UAVs are active in southeastern Chernihiv Oblast (southwest course). Multiple groups of Russian UAVs are reported from Sumy Oblast moving towards Chernihiv Oblast. Russian strike UAVs are reported in eastern Chernihiv Oblast heading west/southwest. New reports indicate Russian strike UAVs in the eastern, center, and southern parts of Chernihiv Oblast heading westward/southwestward and transitioning into Kyiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force and РБК-Україна report the movement of enemy UAVs towards Chernihiv. Николаевский Ванёк reports Russian drone groups near Pryluky and Nizhyn and in northern Chernihiv Oblast. New reports indicate strike UAVs in southern Chernihiv Oblast, course - west/southwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
Poltava Oblast (Myrhorod, northeastern part): Affected by Russian aerial activity. Enemy strike UAVs are active on the border of Sumy and Poltava Oblasts (southeast course) and on the border of Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts (east course), and are a threat to Poltava Oblast, with some heading towards Myrhorod. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Poltava Oblast, with some heading towards Myrhorod. Russian strike UAVs are reported in northeastern Poltava Oblast heading southwest. New reports indicate Russian strike UAVs in northern Poltava Oblast heading westward/southwestward and in the area of Mirhorod. Николаевский Ванёк reports Russian drone groups in northern Poltava Oblast and in the area of Mirhorod. New reports indicate strike UAVs in central and western Poltava Oblast, course - west/southwest, and southwest Poltava Oblast, course - west/southwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк)
Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast (northern part, Kyiv, Bila Tserkva district): Affected by Russian aerial activity. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Kyiv Oblast. New reports indicate Russian drone groups north of Kyiv heading westward and transitioning from Chernihiv Oblast into Kyiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force and РБК-Україна report the movement of enemy UAVs towards Cherkasy, potentially impacting Kyiv Oblast's airspace. New reports indicate strike UAVs in northern Kyiv Oblast, course - southwest, and southern Kyiv Oblast, course - west/northwest. New reports indicate a UAV on the southwest of Kyiv Oblast, course - west. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 drone groups transitioning from Kyiv Oblast (Bila Tserkva district) to Vinnytsia Oblast. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts, course - northwest. New reports indicate 7 drones circling at the intersection of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна)
Prokopyevsk (Russia): Location of an incident involving a Russian servicemember who allegedly stole a car and hit two schoolgirls. (ASTRA)
Haifa Port (Israel): Location of a claimed naval blockade by Yemeni Houthis. (TASS, Colonelcassad)
Sea of Japan: Location of drills by the Russian large landing ship Peresvet. (MoD Russia)
Kozatske (Kherson Oblast): Location where Russian forces reportedly struck with guided bombs. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Location where enemy strike UAVs are reportedly heading. Russian strike UAVs are reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast southwest of Pavlohrad heading south. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Arkhangelsk Oblast (Russia): Location where former Roscosmos head Yuri Borisov is reportedly appointed as senator. (ТАСС)
Cuba: Cuban banks are working to start issuing "Mir" cards. (ТАСС)
Vologda Oblast (Russia) (Nyuksensky district): Location of a scandal involving the daughter of a district head that led to the official's dismissal. ASTRA and Colonelcassad report on this incident. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора)
Sirius (Russia): Putin's visit to a music school here is noted by TASS. (ТАСС)
Cherkasy Oblast (Zolotonosha, Cherkasy, Smila): The Ukrainian Air Force and РБК-Україна report the movement of enemy UAVs towards Zolotonosha and Cherkasy. Николаевский Ванёк reports Russian drone groups north of Cherkasy heading westward and transitioning from Poltava Oblast into Cherkasy Oblast. New reports indicate strike UAVs in eastern and central Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/southwest and west/northwest, and in the Smila area and west of Cherkasy. New reports indicate a UAV on the southeast of Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/northwest, and a UAV on the border of Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts, course - northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 drone groups east of Smila and 3 southwest of Smila, course west. New reports indicate a UAV in the central part of Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/northwest. New reports indicate 1 drone west of Smila, course south. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
Latvia: Два майора shares a video and text from Belarusian border guards reporting the discovery of two bodies and an injured refugee on the border with Latvia on May 17th, attributing the deaths to Latvian border guards. (Два майора)
Makhachkala (Dagestan, Russia): ТАСС reports that 67 people were detained after mass conflicts between teenagers. (ТАСС)
Rostov Oblast (Russia): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports that the search continues for convicts who escaped from a military training ground under Rostov more than ten days ago, with two more apprehended but four still at large. ТАСС reports a state of emergency was introduced in Rostov Oblast due to the condition of crops damaged by spring frosts. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС)
Perm Krai (Russia) (Perm): Рыбарь reports on migration issues in Perm Krai, including a high number of registered migrants and concerns about public order and social infrastructure. (Рыбарь)
Zhytomyr Oblast (Ozerne): New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast and drone groups east of Zhytomyr and transitioning from Kyiv Oblast. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, course - west/northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 drone groups east of Zhytomyr, course south. The Ukrainian Air Force warns specifically of enemy strike UAVs heading towards Zhytomyr. РБК-Україна also reports on enemy UAVs moving towards Zhytomyr. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, course - west/northwest. New reports indicate 7 drones circling at the intersection of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts. New reports indicate 5 drones heading towards Ozerne/Zhytomyr and 4 drones also heading towards Ozerne/Zhytomyr. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна)
Kirovohrad Oblast: New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Vinnytsia Oblast (Koziatyn): New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs. This threat is specifically confirmed by РБК-Україна. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, course - west/northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 5 drone groups circling in northern Vinnytsia Oblast and 6 transitioning from Kyiv Oblast (Bila Tserkva district) to Vinnytsia Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force warns specifically of enemy strike UAVs heading towards Koziatyn (Vinnytsia Oblast) from the southeast. New reports indicate a UAV on the northern east of Vinnytsia Oblast, course - west/northwest. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, course - west/northwest. New reports indicate 7 drones circling at the intersection of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
China (Inner Mongolia): New reports suggest potential Chinese involvement in advanced artillery munitions development, specifically a claimed "Suspended Flight Test" of a Chinese analog to UMPK for 152 and 155-mm artillery shells in Inner Mongolia. (Colonelcassad)
Udmurtia (Russia): Location associated with former Senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev, who is facing fraud charges. (ТАСС)
Russia (Vympel Shipyard): Location of a shipyard from which the Ministry of Defense is requiring the recovery of 2.6 billion rubles. (ТАСС)
Russia (Komosomolsk-on-Amur, Khabarovsk Krai): Location of a domestic incident involving a drunk driver and transportation of a minor without a car seat. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
Russia (Ozerne): Location that appears to be a target of converging Russian drone activity. (Николаевский Ванёк)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Extremely high and widespread Russian drone activity remains, with large numbers of strike UAVs active across multiple Ukrainian oblasts with various trajectories. Ukraine is conducting a massive drone attack targeting Crimea, which Russian air defense is actively countering. Russia claims downing a large number of Ukrainian UAVs. Ukrainian forces are effectively using drones against Russian personnel, equipment, and logistics. Russian military bloggers are highlighting the claimed effectiveness of Russian drone operations and countermeasures. New and detailed reports specify the movements of numerous Russian strike UAVs across Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with various updated trajectories. A hostile reconnaissance UAV is active in the northeastern direction. Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. New reports detail the movement of numerous Russian drone groups towards Chernihiv, Zolotonosha, Cherkasy, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Konstantinovka, and in the areas of Okhtyrka, northern Poltava Oblast, Pryluky, Nizhyn, northern Chernihiv Oblast, north of Cherkasy, Mirhorod, and transitioning into Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts. New and detailed reports provide updated trajectories for strike UAVs in eastern Kharkiv, southern Chernihiv, central and western Poltava, northern and southern Kyiv, eastern and central Cherkasy, southwest Poltava, western Kyiv, southern Kyiv, eastern and central Cherkasy Oblasts. New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, with the threat in Vinnytsia Oblast specifically confirmed. A hostile reconnaissance UAV is reported in southern Sumy Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк provides further detailed breakdowns of drone movements in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Bilotserkivskyi district areas. New and detailed reports provide updated trajectories for strike UAVs in southwest Kyiv, southeast Cherkasy, border of Kyiv and Cherkasy, and border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк provides further detailed breakdowns of drone movements in Vinnytsia, Kyiv (Bila Tserkva district), and Cherkasy (Smila area and east of Zhytomyr) Oblasts, highlighting converging drone activity on specific areas. The Ukrainian Air Force warns specifically of enemy strike UAVs heading towards Koziatyn (Vinnytsia Oblast) and Zhytomyr. New reports indicate a UAV on the northern east of Vinnytsia Oblast, course - west/northwest, a UAV in the central part of Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/northwest, and a UAV on the border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, course - west/northwest. РБК-Україна also reports on enemy UAVs moving towards Zhytomyr. New reports provide updated drone movements towards Zhytomyr (1 drone), at the intersection of Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Kyiv Oblasts (7 drones circling), west of Smila (1 drone with a southern course), and additional drones heading towards Ozerne/Zhytomyr (5 more and 4 from circling groups). (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Народная милиция ДНР, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Сливочный каприз, Николаевский Ванёк)
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense is actively engaged against the large-scale Russian drone attack, reflected in the widespread air raid alerts. Russian air defense forces are actively countering the Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea. The updated air raid alert map indicates widespread alerts across Ukraine due to ongoing aerial activity, implying Ukrainian air defense engagement. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Russian air defense forces are shooting down many drones targeting Crimea. Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. Ukrainian assets are engaged to shoot down a hostile reconnaissance UAV in southern Sumy Oblast. The widespread air raid alerts in Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and Vinnytsia Oblasts indicate potential Ukrainian air defense activity in these areas, with the threat in Vinnytsia Oblast specifically confirmed. The widespread air raid alerts due to updated drone movements across multiple oblasts indicate continued Ukrainian air defense engagement. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Воин DV, РБК-Україна)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces, including on Donetsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russia claims downing 7 JDAM guided bombs over the past day. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. New reports indicate launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. New launches of guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast are reported. New reports suggest potential Chinese development of a Chinese analog to UMPK for 152 and 155-mm artillery shells, converting them into guided aerial bombs. New launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported on Sumy Oblast and on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. РБК-Україна confirms the launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. (ТАСС, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad)
Missile Activity: Russia claims downing one HIMARS rocket over the past day. (ТАСС)
Aviation Activity: Active Russian tactical aviation on eastern, southeastern, and northeastern directions with threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. New reports indicate launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast by enemy tactical aviation. New launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Donetsk Oblast are reported. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction! (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна)
Naval Activity: Potential threat of enemy uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) near Novorossiysk warned. The SBU claims using surface and aerial drones to destroy a Russian radar and warehouses on gas production platforms in the Black Sea. Yemeni Houthis claim to have established a naval blockade of the Israeli port of Haifa. MoD Russia reports that the large landing ship Peresvet performed artillery firing at coastal, air, and sea targets in the Sea of Japan. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, TASS, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia)
Electronic Warfare (EW): Ukrainian air defense efforts included the use of EW. Mash on Donbass claims Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the DNR last night by air defense and EW. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Mash на Донбассе)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery and MLRS use. Russia claims downing one HIMARS rocket. Russian forces used Grad MLRS to destroy Ukrainian drone teams. A large cache of NATO weapons was reportedly found near Kurakhove, including artillery and mortar shells. Russian sources are highlighting the use of RSZO "Uragan" systems and Grad MLRS. Воин DV shares a video claiming Расчеты РСЗО "Ураган" 29 гвардейской общевойсковой армии группировки "Восток" are striking Ukrainian positions in Алексеевка. New reports suggest potential Chinese development of advanced artillery munitions, specifically a claimed "Suspended Flight Test" of a Chinese analog to UMPK for 152 and 155-mm artillery shells. Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that before withdrawing from Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces left multi-layered mine obstacles, including remotely mined devices using drones, and claims the discovery of large caches of new NATO weapons and ammunition in residential buildings. (ТАСС, MoD Russia, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Воин DV, Colonelcassad)
Reconnaissance Activity: A hostile reconnaissance UAV is reported in southern Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that before withdrawing from Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces used sensors reacting to movement and magnetic fields as part of mine obstacles, which could be linked to reconnaissance efforts. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonelcassad)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Putin discussed the Istanbul negotiations with Tokayev. Erdogan stated the conflict cannot be resolved militarily and Turkey will continue efforts for a settlement. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of Trump's stance on negotiations and the lack of a mediator for Ukrainian interests. The Trump-Putin call concluded with both sides expressing some optimism about potential negotiations. Zelenskyy stated Ukraine will not withdraw troops or yield to ultimatums, desires a ceasefire as a first step, and is considering future meetings in Turkey, Vatican, or Switzerland. Ukraine will not discuss abandoning its NATO course or neutral status. Ukraine is waiting for Russia's proposal for a memorandum. Zelenskyy spoke with Trump twice, including with European leaders, discussing next steps and evaluating proposals. Trump stated there is "some progress" in the Russia-Ukraine settlement and that he believes in Putin's desire for peace in Ukraine. Following the Trump-Putin call, Russian Direct Investment Fund head Dmitriev stated that Russia and the US can be excellent partners in economic and investment cooperation. Colonelcassad comments on Pavel Durov's statements regarding French intelligence and censorship, suggesting a greater willingness to speak freely away from France. The Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine has warned about the creation of fake Telegram accounts of Ukrainian officials. Russian sources, citing The Times, report that US sanctions against Russia now appear less likely than before the Trump-Putin call and that Trump views significant business opportunities with Russia if the war ends. Trump has reiterated that he believes "some progress" was made during his call with Putin and that he is not increasing sanctions against Russia because there is a "chance" for peace. Trump has also stated that he believes the conflict "should have remained a European problem" and that the US "should not have intervened," while simultaneously saying he would consider increasing arms supplies to Kyiv but believes in a settlement. Trump has now also stated that if there is no significant progress on Ukraine, the US will "yield its role in the settlement to Europe." TASS reports that the topic of a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was discussed during the call. Песков has confirmed that contacts between Russia and Ukraine have been "recreated and are continuing," although specific details regarding the location and timeline for further contact or the preparation of a memorandum are not yet decided. Песков also stated that the US is not withdrawing from mediation and that Washington has provided "effective intermediary services," potentially contradicting Trump's statement about yielding the role to Europe if no progress is made. ТАСС reports that the Kremlin knows about the Vatican's offer to host Russia-Ukraine negotiations but a decision has not yet been made, citing Песков. РБК-Україна reports Trump called Zelenskyy before talking to Putin and spoke for a few minutes, citing Axios. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy is awaiting a call from Trump to learn the results of his conversation with Putin, citing Al Jazeera. ТАСС reports Trump confirmed that he touched upon the prospects of their meeting in conversation with Putin. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Песков stating that contacts between Moscow and Kyiv are now recreated and are continuing, specific decisions about the location for further contact have not yet been made, and specific timelines for preparing a memorandum do not exist. ТАСС shares a video of Песков stating there are no exact deadlines for preparing the memorandum with Ukraine, and that "the devil is in the details." РБК-Україна reports on comments from Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov to TASS, reiterating that the topic of a direct contact between Putin and Zelenskyy was discussed during the conversation with Trump, contacts between Russia and Ukraine are now recreated and continuing, although the location and specific timelines for a settlement memorandum are not yet decided. ТАСС reports a claim that the Armed Forces of Ukraine committed several tens of thousands of military crimes during the occupation of Kursk Oblast, potentially framing a Russian position for future negotiations. ТАСС shares a photo message quoting Donald Trump describing his phone call with Putin as a "pleasant gentleman," providing insight into the high-level diplomatic exchange. (ТАСС, Два майора, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Песков, Николаевский Ванёк, Сливочный каприз)
Russia-United States Relations: Concerns raised about the potential impact of Trump's stance on negotiations and the lack of a mediator for Ukrainian interests. The Trump-Putin call concluded with both sides expressing some optimism. Trump commented on the call and potential progress. Trump stated there is "some progress" in the Russia-Ukraine settlement. European leaders reportedly agreed to increase sanctions on Russia after the Trump-Putin call, indicating a coordinated response. Trump stated he believes in Putin's desire for peace in Ukraine. Head of RDIF Dmitriev stated that Russia and the US can be excellent partners for economic and investment cooperation. Russian sources, citing The Times, report US sanctions against Russia appear less likely than before the Trump-Putin call, and Trump views significant business opportunities with Russia if the war ends. TASS reports, citing The Times, that the call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions against Russia. Trump has reiterated that he believes "some progress" was made during his call with Putin and that he is not increasing sanctions against Russia because there is a "chance" for peace. Trump has stated that he believes the conflict "should have remained a European problem" and that the US "should not have intervened," while saying he would consider increasing arms supplies to Kyiv but believes in a settlement. Trump has stated that he will be ready within 2-4 weeks to assess whether Ukraine is doing enough for conflict resolution. Trump has stated that if there is no significant progress on Ukraine, the US will "yield its role in the settlement to Europe." TASS reports that the topic of a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was discussed during the call. Песков stated that the US is not withdrawing from mediation and that Washington has provided "effective intermediary services." РБК-Україна reports Trump called Zelenskyy before talking to Putin and spoke for a few minutes, citing Axios. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy is awaiting a call from Trump to learn the results of his conversation with Putin, citing Al Jazeera. ТАСС reports Trump confirmed that he touched upon the prospects of their meeting in conversation with Putin. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Песков stating that the US does not withdraw from mediation and that Washington has provided effective intermediary services. РБК-Україна reports on comments from Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov to TASS, reiterating that the topic of a direct contact between Putin and Zelenskyy was discussed during the conversation with Trump. ТАСС shares a photo message quoting Donald Trump describing his phone call with Putin as a "pleasant gentleman." (Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Басурин о главном, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Песков, Николаевский Ванёк)
Internal Russian Politics: Legislative initiative to expedite housing for military personnel. Simplified Russian citizenship for citizens of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Report on a domestic dispute involving an Iskander missile developer. Putin proposed expanding grant programs to sports and culture and commented on "Sirius". Reports of scandal in Vologda Oblast, fraud scheme in Telegram, and potential constitutional changes. Russian Minister of Justice criticized the Decembrists. Cultural project linking Russian cities. Russian representative at Intervision contest announced. Accepting new members into Pioneer organization on Red Square. Putin expressed condolences for choreographer. Measles outbreak in Moscow. Prosecutor's check on moose incident. Commentary on Alexander Ovechkin. Embezzlement of funds for defensive structures in Belgorod. War-themed poem shared. Head of RDIF Dmitriev stated that Russia and the US can be excellent partners in economic and investment cooperation. The scandal in Vologda Oblast involving the daughter of a district head threatening to send people to the "SVO" has resulted in the official's dismissal. The governor has also recommended that the daughter volunteer in a military hospital and stated that an "SVO participant" will likely be nominated for the vacant position. Putin's visit to a music school in "Sirius" is noted by TASS. ТАСС reports that Rosfinmonitoring is seeking access to data from the "Mir" payment system for combating money laundering and terrorism financing. Colonelcassad comments on using system features for hidden attacks, seemingly referring to cybersecurity issues. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video on controversial interpretations of Islamic marital practices, framed as a concern about migrants and some Russian Muslims consuming this content, likely intended to fuel social tensions and reinforce a specific narrative. ТАСС reports that 67 people were detained in Makhachkala, Dagestan, after mass conflicts between teenagers. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports that the search continues for convicts who escaped from a military training ground under Rostov more than ten days ago, with two more apprehended but four still at large. ТАСС reports a state of emergency was introduced in Rostov Oblast due to the condition of crops damaged by spring frosts. Рыбарь reports on migration issues in Perm Krai, including a high number of registered migrants and concerns about public order and social infrastructure. ТАСС reports that Rosfinmonitoring is requesting access to data from the "Mir" payment system to combat money laundering and financing of terrorism. New reports from Colonelcassad suggest potential Chinese development of advanced artillery munitions with strategic implications. ТАСС reports that former Senator from Udmurtia, Viktor Khoroshavtsev, is accused of six episodes of large-scale fraud. ТАСС reports that Deputy Tatiana Butskaya proposed developing a physical education program for children with special needs and disabilities. ТАСС reports that the Ministry of Defense requires the recovery of 2.6 billion rubles from the Vympel shipyard. ТАСС reports that the total revenue of the 100 largest digital companies in the Russian Federation amounted to 6.7 trillion rubles, a significant increase. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a domestic incident involving a drunk driver and transportation of a minor without a car seat. ТАСС reports a claim that the Armed Forces of Ukraine committed several tens of thousands of military crimes during the occupation of Kursk Oblast, made by a Russian official. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, ASTRA, Глеб Никитин, Colonelcassad, Новости Москвы, Kotsnews, WarGonzo, Два майора, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Песков, Николаевский Ванёк, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Рыбарь, Полиция Хабаровского края)
Humanitarian Issues: Attempt to evade military service by crossing the border on a monowheel highlights the impact of the conflict and mobilization on individuals. Ukrainian General Staff conducting a survey on financial literacy for military, veterans, and their families. Civilian casualties from Russian attacks continue. Prisoner exchanges are being discussed. FATALITY and injuries from Russian shelling in Sumy Oblast. Reported incident in Prokopyevsk involving a Russian servicemember hitting schoolgirls. Yemeni Houthis claim naval blockade of Haifa. RBC-Ukraine reports a loud explosion in Simferopol. Два майора shares a video and text from Belarusian border guards reporting the discovery of two bodies and an injured refugee on the border with Latvia on May 17th, attributing the deaths to Latvian border guards. Ukrainian Air Force reports a hostile reconnaissance UAV in southern Sumy Oblast, which may be acting as a spotter for enemy weapons. Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that before withdrawing from Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces left multi-layered mine obstacles, including remotely mined devices using drones, and claims the discovery of large caches of new NATO weapons and ammunition in residential buildings, which could pose a humanitarian risk to civilians. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Басурин о главном, ASTRA, TASS, РБК-Україна, Два майора, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonelcassad)
International Pressure: US and Europe will strengthen sanctions if Russia does not negotiate in good faith. European leaders reportedly agreed to increase pressure on Russia after the Trump-Putin call. Europe will increase pressure on Moscow with sanctions, according to German Chancellor Merz. Russian sources, citing The Times, report US sanctions against Russia appear less likely than before the Trump-Putin call, and Trump views significant business opportunities with Russia if the war ends. TASS reports, citing The Times, that the call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions against Russia. Trump has reiterated that he is not increasing sanctions against Russia because there is a "chance" for peace. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Басурин о главном, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Belarus-Latvia Tensions: Ongoing tensions and humanitarian concerns on the border. Два майора shares a video and text from Belarusian border guards reporting the discovery of two bodies and an injured refugee on the border with Latvia on May 17th, attributing the deaths to Latvian border guards. (Два майора)
Potential ICC Action: Potential for an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. (РБК-Україна)
Russian Decree on Foreign Harm Monitoring: Putin signed a decree on state monitoring of harm caused by foreign sources. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Colonelcassad)
Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda: Satirical video about burying Russian paratroopers and photo message about turning Russia into a museum exhibit. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a satirical video claiming local residents buried burnt bodies of Russian paratroopers from the 104th regiment of the VDV in Kursk Oblast. (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Ukrainian Expert Assessment: Assessment that Russia currently lacks sufficient forces for a massive offensive on Sumy Oblast. (РБК-Україна)
Ukrainian Adaptation and Modernization: Efforts to adapt and modernize military vehicles with public support. Operational ZSU shares a video highlighting the modified RSZV BM-21 "Berest" in service with the 36th Marine Brigade. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Polish Presidential Election: Analysis of the first round. (РБК-Україна, Рыбарь)
Romanian Presidential Election: Analysis of the second round and record voter turnout abroad. (Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, НгП раZVедка, РБК-Україна)
Alleged War Crimes: Report of alleged rape by a Russian serviceman in occupied Donetsk Oblast. (ASTRA)
Belarusian Action Against Volunteers: Belarusian authorities initiating criminal proceedings and declaring wanted individuals associated with the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment. (РБК-Україна)
Internal Ukrainian Military Issues: Report on the relief of the Commander of the 59th Separate Mechanized Brigade of Drone Systems. Commander of OSUV "Khortytsia" and Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, Mykhailo Drapatii, commented on the scandal with the 155th Separate Motorized Brigade regarding alleged business on combat payments. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)
Information Operations Targeting Ukrainian Officials: РБК-Україна reports a warning from the Center for Countering Disinformation about the creation of fake Telegram accounts impersonating Ukrainian officials. (РБК-Україна)
Colonelcassad Comments on Durov's Statements and Censorship: Colonelcassad comments on Pavel Durov's statements regarding alleged attempts by French intelligence to establish censorship in Telegram. (Colonelcassad)
Situation in Israel: Yemeni Houthis claim naval blockade of Haifa. (TASS, Colonelcassad)
Cuban Banks to Issue "Mir" Cards: Cuban banks are working to start issuing "Mir" cards. (ТАСС)
Cherkasy Oblast (Zolotonosha, Cherkasy, Smila): The Ukrainian Air Force and РБК-Україна report the movement of enemy UAVs towards Zolotonosha and Cherkasy. Николаевский Ванёк reports Russian drone groups north of Cherkasy heading westward and transitioning from Poltava Oblast into Cherkasy Oblast. New reports indicate strike UAVs in eastern and central Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/southwest and west/northwest, and in the Smila area and west of Cherkasy. New reports indicate a UAV on the southeast of Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/northwest, and a UAV on the border of Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts, course - northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 drone groups east of Smila and 3 southwest of Smila, course west. New reports indicate a UAV in the central part of Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/northwest. New reports indicate 1 drone west of Smila, course south. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
Zhytomyr Oblast (Ozerne): New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast and drone groups east of Zhytomyr and transitioning from Kyiv Oblast. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, course - west/northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 drone groups east of Zhytomyr, course south. The Ukrainian Air Force warns specifically of enemy strike UAVs heading towards Zhytomyr. РБК-Україна also reports on enemy UAVs moving towards Zhytomyr. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, course - west/northwest. New reports indicate 7 drones circling at the intersection of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts. New reports indicate 5 drones heading towards Ozerne/Zhytomyr and 4 drones also heading towards Ozerne/Zhytomyr. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна)
Kirovohrad Oblast: New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Vinnytsia Oblast (Koziatyn): New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs. This threat is specifically confirmed by РБК-Україна. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, course - west/northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 5 drone groups circling in northern Vinnytsia Oblast and 6 transitioning from Kyiv Oblast (Bila Tserkva district) to Vinnytsia Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force warns specifically of enemy strike UAVs heading towards Koziatyn (Vinnytsia Oblast) from the southeast. New reports indicate a UAV on the northern east of Vinnytsia Oblast, course - west/northwest. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, course - west/northwest. New reports indicate 7 drones circling at the intersection of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
China (Inner Mongolia): New reports suggest potential Chinese involvement in advanced artillery munitions development, specifically a claimed "Suspended Flight Test" of a Chinese analog to UMPK for 152 and 155-mm artillery shells in Inner Mongolia. (Colonelcassad)
Udmurtia (Russia): Location associated with former Senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev, who is facing fraud charges. (ТАСС)
Russia (Vympel Shipyard): Location of a shipyard from which the Ministry of Defense is requiring the recovery of 2.6 billion rubles. (ТАСС)
Russia (Komosomolsk-on-Amur, Khabarovsk Krai): Location of a domestic incident involving a drunk driver and transportation of a minor without a car seat. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
Russia (Ozerne): Location that appears to be a target of converging Russian drone activity. (Николаевский Ванёк)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The upcoming phone conversation between Russian President Putin and Donald Trump on May 19th and Trump's characterization of the call as "pleasant gentleman" are significant strategic developments, indicating direct high-level contact between the US and Russia which could influence the diplomatic trajectory of the conflict and the tone of future interactions. TASS reports Trump wants to meet Putin as soon as possible and the location/time are being decided, citing Rubio, further emphasizing the strategic importance of potential direct talks. ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, and Оперативний ЗСУ reiterating this information further highlights its perceived strategic importance across various sources. Colonelcassad's commentary on this potential meeting, framing it in terms of Russian demands, is a strategic communication in itself. Alex Parker Returns reporting on Rubio's statement regarding Trump's desire to meet Putin and Russia's expressed readiness further reinforces the strategic importance of this potential meeting. ТАСС shares a photo message quoting Donald Trump describing his phone call with Putin as a "pleasant gentleman," providing insight into the high-level diplomatic exchange.
Russian efforts to modernize platforms for counter-drone operations, such as the claimed Як-52Б2 modification, highlight a strategic adaptation to the prevalent use of drones by Ukrainian forces and a recognition of the need to counter this threat. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a claimed attempt by a Russian soldier to counter a Ukrainian FPV drone with a stick on the Pokrovsk direction, while presented satirically, it reflects the tactical reality of encountering FPV drones at close range and the challenges in countering them. Воин DV shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian "Baba-Yaga" type drones near Bogatyr with claimed air defense success, highlighting Russian efforts to counter specific Ukrainian drone types.
Reports from a Russian source of a "suicidal" Russian assault with significant casualties, while unverified, can have strategic implications for understanding the cost and potential effectiveness of certain Russian tactics and could contribute to internal Russian discourse regarding military strategy and leadership.
The US State Department's account of the Rubio-Lavrov call, emphasizing a US peace plan and call for an immediate ceasefire, underscores the continued US diplomatic engagement and its distinct position on the conflict, which is strategically relevant for understanding the broader international context and potential diplomatic initiatives.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's claim of significant Russian equipment losses since the start of the year, if accurate, is a crucial strategic indicator of the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces and the rate of attrition of Russian military capabilities, impacting Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations and highlighting the need for continued international military support for Ukraine. Олександр Вілкул provides figures on Russian personnel and equipment losses over the past day (910 personnel, 6 tanks, 7 armored combat vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 155 UAVs, 96 vehicles), which reinforces the claim of significant Russian losses. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ providing detailed combat statistics and claimed Russian losses further reinforces this strategic indicator.
The plan by Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS and Patriot missiles in Europe is a major strategic development aimed at ensuring a sustained supply of key Western missile systems to Ukraine and bolstering European defense capabilities in the long term. Два майора reporting details of this plan underscores its strategic significance.
Russian information operations, such as the video shared by Басурин о главнoм framing a Ukrainian appeal to Putin, are strategically aimed at influencing narratives, portraying a specific image of the conflict, and potentially sowing dissent within Ukraine. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants and Colonelcassad sharing a report about a leaked audio recording of Joe Biden are also part of information operations aimed at internal and external audiences. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a New York Times article report on Russian soldier sentiment, which is likely used in information operations. Воин DV reports on published Russian demands for negotiations, serving as a Russian narrative. Воин DV reports Konstantin Kosachev's opinion that Kyiv and the EU are not interested in peace. Воин DV reports Hungarian Prime Minister Orban called on the EU to start negotiations with Putin. Воин DV reports Serbian President Vucic's view on the 1000x1000 prisoner exchange. Воин DV reports The Telegraph's concern in Kyiv about Trump-Putin talks. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Ukrainian BMC Kirpi armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian FPV drones, likely for propaganda. «Зона СВО» shares a military-themed motivational post. MoD Russia showcases BMPT Terminator training, likely for propaganda. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants. Alex Parker Returns reports an Australian mercenary was sentenced to 13 years in Russia but may be part of a prisoner exchange, framing it from a Russian perspective. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 discusses the role of Russian propaganda in claiming control over territories, highlighting its strategic function. WarGonzo shares a poem related to war, which can also contribute to information operations or morale. Alex Parker Returns shares a video with commentary linking the battalion commander's resignation to opposition to the regime, which is an information operation. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a photo message quoting a Ukrainian official and adding commentary from Ukrainians mocking the official's statement, which is an information operation. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Russian drone operator destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-1U "Shkval" armored vehicle, serving as propaganda. Два майора shares a video showing the installation and claimed effectiveness of "Frontline Armor" kits on military vehicles, likely for propaganda and morale. ТАСС reports a claim that the Armed Forces of Ukraine committed several tens of thousands of military crimes during the occupation of Kursk Oblast, which is likely part of a Russian information operation aimed at justifying their actions and framing a position for negotiations.
French military exercises focusing on amphibious operations with international participation highlight the ongoing adaptation of NATO tactics to modern warfare and the strategic importance placed on expeditionary capabilities, which could be relevant in the broader European security context.
The Ukrainian official's comments on the estimated economic damage to Kursk Oblast agriculture from Ukrainian attacks highlight the strategic impact of Ukrainian cross-border actions on the Russian economy and can be used in strategic messaging by Ukraine to emphasize the costs of the conflict for Russia.
Ukrainian public opinion showing strong support for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, as indicated by the "Rating" poll, is strategically relevant for understanding internal Ukrainian sentiment regarding de-escalation and could influence political and diplomatic decisions related to peace initiatives, despite skepticism about the current negotiation format.
The report of an alleged internal conflict within the Ukrainian command regarding negotiations, while from a Russian source and potentially part of an information operation, points to the strategic complexities and potential internal dynamics within the Ukrainian leadership during high-level diplomatic engagements. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the resignation of a battalion commander from the 47th Brigade, reinforcing the possibility of internal challenges within parts of the Ukrainian military. Colonelcassad and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reporting on the resignation of a Ukrainian battalion commander due to dissatisfaction with command decisions and casualties is a significant development with potential strategic implications for troop morale, unit cohesion, and leadership confidence. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reporting on the resignation of a battalion commander from the 47th Brigade and sharing his statements further underscores the potential strategic impact of this issue. Alex Parker Returns shares a video with commentary linking the battalion commander's resignation to opposition to the regime, which is a strategic information operation.
The traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck, while seemingly a localized incident, can have broader strategic implications by highlighting the ongoing military presence in occupied territories, potential operational safety issues, and the impact of military activity on civilian life, which can be leveraged in information operations by opposing sides.
Dmitry Medvedev's statement on negotiations potentially leading to escalation is a significant strategic communication from a high-level Russian official, potentially intended to signal a hardening of Russia's position, deter certain actions from the opposing side, or prepare for potential future escalation if diplomatic efforts do not yield outcomes favorable to Russia.
The claimed influx of the "Kraken" battalion into Izium and rumors of an impending offensive, as reported by a Russian source, could be strategically intended to generate concern and fear among the local population or to preemptively frame potential future Ukrainian military activity in the area.
The reported scandal within the Ukrainian 47th Brigade, if accurate, highlights potential internal challenges related to command effectiveness, troop morale, and casualty rates within some Ukrainian units, which are strategically important factors impacting overall military capability and sustainability. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the resignation of a battalion commander from the 47th Brigade, providing specific information supporting this claim. Colonelcassad and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reporting on the resignation of a battalion commander from the Ukrainian 47th Brigade due to dissatisfaction with command decisions and casualties further underscores the potential strategic impact of this issue. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reporting on the resignation of a battalion commander from the 47th Brigade and sharing his statements further underscores the potential strategic impact of this issue. Alex Parker Returns shares a video with commentary linking the battalion commander's resignation to opposition to the regime, which is a strategic information operation.
The continued widespread and dynamic Russian drone activity across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, including updated detailed movements converging on Zhytomyr and the intersection of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, remains a significant strategic challenge for Ukraine, necessitating the sustained operation and adaptation of air defense systems across the entire country and suggesting Russian efforts to maintain pressure, gather intelligence, or target infrastructure beyond the immediate front lines. Multiple reports from Ukrainian and Russian sources on drone movements across numerous oblasts confirm the scale and persistence of this strategic threat. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting Chernihiv oblast is under Shahed attack with explosions heard in the city highlights the impact of these attacks. STERNENKO reports the threat of strike UAVs from the north and a massive attack. STERNENKO reports a Russian military blogger is requesting donations for FPV drones and makes a similar request, highlighting the strategic importance and high consumption of these systems. Николаевский Ванёк and Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine providing detailed updates on numerous Russian drone movements across various oblasts confirm the strategic scale of this aerial campaign. STERNENKO reporting Chernihiv is under a massive attack by Russian drones with explosions heard underscores the strategic impact of these attacks. New reports provide updated drone movements towards Zhytomyr (1 drone), at the intersection of Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Kyiv Oblasts (7 drones circling), west of Smila (1 drone with a southern course), and additional drones heading towards Ozerne/Zhytomyr (5 more and 4 from circling groups), indicating a potential strategic focus on this area.
The intense ground combat and claimed Russian advances in key areas of eastern and southern Ukraine represent a persistent strategic effort by Russia to achieve territorial gains and exert pressure on Ukrainian forces, aiming to change the battlefield reality and potentially improve their position in future negotiations. Два майора reports the Russian MoD claimed the liberation of Aleksandropol and Nova Poltavka. Рыбарь reports Russian forces continued their offensive on the Andriyivka direction, confirming the liberation of Bohartyr and capturing surrounding farms. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ providing a detailed update on Russian combat actions across multiple directions and reporting high intensity, particularly on the Pokrovsk direction, confirms the strategic importance of these ground engagements. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 reports Russian forces trying to advance and consolidate near Nadiivka. ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 discusses the challenges of verifying Russian advances in Bahatyr and notes Russian tactics of using small groups for propaganda purposes.
The tragic attack on a regular bus near Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast resulting in civilian fatalities and injuries has significant humanitarian implications and will likely be used in Ukrainian strategic messaging to highlight the impact of Russian aggression on civilians.
President Zelenskyy's diplomatic engagements in Rome with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter are strategically important for maintaining international support, securing military and humanitarian aid, and coordinating diplomatic efforts to pressure Russia and work towards a peaceful resolution.
Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Kyslytsya's comments on the Istanbul negotiations and perceived Russian intimidation tactics provide valuable insight into the atmosphere of the talks and Russia's strategic approach to negotiations, which appears to involve strong rhetoric and potentially attempts to exert psychological pressure. Sharing a photo of his deceased nephew adds a human element to the strategic communication.
Russian MoD claims of downing Ukrainian HIMARS projectiles in the South Donetsk direction are strategically aimed at demonstrating the effectiveness of Russian air defense and countering a key Western-provided capability used by Ukraine.
Russian military blogger claims of destroying Ukrainian BMC Kirpi armored vehicles with FPV drones highlight the tactical effectiveness of FPV drones against armored targets and contribute to the Russian narrative of successfully degrading Ukrainian military equipment.
The New York Times article on Russian soldier sentiment offers a potentially significant insight into the human factor in the conflict, suggesting that despite fatigue, a desire for further conquest exists among some Russian soldiers. This could influence strategic assessments of Russian capabilities and willingness to continue fighting.
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico's readiness to support a referendum on lifting anti-Russian sanctions is a notable development that could strategically impact the unity of the EU's sanctions regime and its leverage against Russia.
Marco Rubio's comments on Trump's desire to meet Putin and the potential for the Vatican to host peace talks highlight the ongoing efforts to find a diplomatic path forward and the exploration of various venues and intermediaries. Trump's potential direct involvement remains a key strategic variable. ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, and Оперативний ЗСУ reiterating this information further underscores its perceived strategic importance. Alex Parker Returns reporting on Rubio's statement regarding Trump's desire to meet Putin and Russia's expressed readiness further reinforces the strategic importance of this potential meeting.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS sharing an analysis from a former SBU officer predicting Russia will not negotiate before October and will continue pressure offers a strategic forecast on the trajectory of the conflict and diplomatic efforts from a Ukrainian perspective.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС sharing a video discussing the withdrawal from Vuhledar is a strategic retrospective analysis of a past battle, potentially aimed at drawing lessons and influencing future strategic planning or public discourse.
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 discussing the challenges of verifying Russian advances and the role of propaganda highlights the strategic importance of accurate information and the difficulties in obtaining it in a contested environment.
The US being impacted by a natural disaster (tornado), while not directly military, could have indirect strategic implications by diverting US resources and attention domestically, potentially impacting the pace or level of aid provided to Ukraine, though this is speculative.
Reports of explosions near Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast indicate continued military activity in central Ukraine, which could involve either Russian strikes or Ukrainian military actions in the area, highlighting the continued threat to infrastructure and potentially population centers beyond the immediate front lines.
The claim from a Russian source that the Armed Forces of Ukraine committed several tens of thousands of military crimes during the occupation of Kursk Oblast is a new and significant development in the information war. This claim is likely intended to counter narratives of Russian war crimes, justify Russian actions, and frame a position for any potential future negotiations. (ТАСС)
The continued focus of Russian drone movements on Zhytomyr and the intersection of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts is a significant strategic development in the ongoing aerial campaign. This concentration of assets suggests these areas are high-priority targets, likely due to the presence of military infrastructure (such as airbases near Zhytomyr/Ozerne) or strategic logistical nodes. The complex maneuvering and circling of drones before converging on targets highlight the sophistication of the Russian planning and the need for dynamic and adaptable Ukrainian air defense responses in these specific regions. (Николаевский Ванёк)

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 20, 2025, 01:57 UTC)

Updated Situation

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Strategic Considerations (Updated)