Sitrep 2025-05-20 01:29:45

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 20, 2025, 01:28 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be characterized by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, and persistent widespread Russian aerial attacks utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs) across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. The diplomatic front continues to be dominated by the aftermath of the concluded telephone conversation between "Putin" and US President Donald Trump, with new interpretations and ongoing commentary from various sources. New reports indicate the formation of a pro-Russian volunteer detachment composed of former Ukrainian servicemen. Additionally, there are new developments regarding potential Chinese involvement in advanced artillery munitions development and continued widespread Russian drone activity, including new threats identified in Ukrainian oblasts previously less affected. The latest messages provide detailed updates on the continued, widespread Russian aerial assault across central and eastern Ukraine, including new launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy and the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts, and further insights into the complex and dynamic drone movements across Kyiv, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr Oblasts.

Significant new updates from the latest messages include:

Updated and Detailed Russian Drone Movements: Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides an updated overview of the location and course of Russian strike UAVs, with specific locations and trajectories now including:
- Northeast Vinnytsia Oblast, course - west/northwest.
- Central Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/northwest.
- Border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, course - west/northwest. The Ukrainian Air Force warns specifically of enemy strike UAVs heading towards Zhytomyr from the southeast. РБК-Україна also reports on enemy UAVs moving towards Zhytomyr. Николаевский Ванёк provides a further detailed breakdown of drone movements, noting groups:
- 5 circling in northern Vinnytsia Oblast.
- 6 transitioning from Kyiv Oblast (Bila Tserkva district) to Vinnytsia Oblast.
- 3 in the Smila area (Cherkasy Oblast).
- 3 southwest of Smila (Cherkasy Oblast), course - west.
- 3 east of Zhytomyr, course south. These detailed updates confirm the broad geographic scope and persistent nature of the Russian drone offensive, with significant and complex movements reported across key central and eastern Ukrainian regions, some transitioning between oblasts and converging on specific locations.
Russian Tactical Aviation Activity and KAB Launches: The Ukrainian Air Force warns of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction with a threat of using aerial weapons for frontline oblasts. This indicates continued Russian close air support and potential for further strikes. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна confirms the launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. These reports indicate continued strategic targeting of frontline and border regions with guided aerial bombs.
Internal Russian Legal and Economic Issues: ТАСС reports that former Senator from Udmurtia, Viktor Khoroshavtsev, is accused of six episodes of large-scale fraud. This is an internal Russian development related to legal and corruption issues. ТАСС reports that the Ministry of Defense requires the recovery of 2.6 billion rubles from the Vympel shipyard, according to a claim. This is an internal legal and economic issue related to military production. ТАСС reports that the total revenue of the 100 largest digital companies in the Russian Federation amounted to 6.7 trillion rubles, an increase of 95% compared to 2022. This is an internal Russian economic development in the digital sector.
Internal Russian Political/Social Initiative: ТАСС reports that Deputy Tatiana Butskaya proposed developing a physical education program for children with special needs and disabilities, noting the current possibilities for sports development for children with even severe disabilities. This is an internal Russian social initiative.
Internal Russian Domestic Incidents: Полиция Хабаровского края shares a video and text reporting that traffic police in Komsomolsk-on-Amur prevented a possible tragedy by stopping a driver who was under the influence of alcohol and transporting a minor child without a car seat. This is an internal Russian domestic incident related to law enforcement and public safety.
Russian Military Commentary on Ukrainian Mine Laying Tactics in Kursk Oblast: Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that before withdrawing from Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces left multi-layered mine obstacles. The commentary claims that sappers are finding various types of mines, including those undetectable by metal detectors and pressure traps. A soldier is quoted stating that the closer they get to Sudzha, the more "NATO" equipment they find. It also claims that the enemy used sensors reacting to movement and magnetic fields, and that sappers are spending up to a week to clear a single yard. Large caches of new NATO weapons and ammunition are reportedly found in residential buildings. This provides a detailed Russian account of claimed Ukrainian defensive tactics involving extensive and sophisticated mine laying in border regions and claims the discovery of Western-supplied equipment.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, South-Donetsk direction, Romanovka, Krymske, Novoye, Novoolenovka, Dzerzhynsk, Konstantinovka, Myrnograd, Novoekonomicheskoe, Siversk, Verkhnokamyanske, Hryhorivka, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Lysychansk direction, border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Russia claims tactical advances near Otradnoye and in Bogatyr, and on the Dzerzhynsk and Konstantinovka directions, including entering Romanovka and clearing areas north of Krymske. Russia claims capturing a key Ukrainian stronghold near Novoye. Russia claims the liberation of Novoolenovka. Russian military bloggers are highlighting claimed advances on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions, stating the situation is becoming significantly more complicated for Ukrainian forces east and northeast of the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration, with fighting reportedly shifting closer to Novoekonomicheskoe near Mirnograd and Russian forces moving towards Konstantinovka. Ukrainian sources highlight the effectiveness of their drone units and report successful drone strikes on Russian logistics and against Russian infantry, a quad bike, and a "loaf" vehicle. They also claim the destruction of Russian drone teams and a UAV command post on the right bank of the Dnipro river using Grad MLRS and the burning of a Russian T-72B3 tank on the Lyman direction. Russian sources highlight the use of RSZO "Uragan" systems and Grad MLRS. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 156 combat engagements over the past day across multiple fronts, with particularly intense fighting on the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, and Toretsk directions. Russian military bloggers are also highlighting the destruction of Ukrainian equipment, including Bradley and MaxxPro vehicles, near Pokrovsk. Russian strike UAVs are active in western Donetsk Oblast heading northeast and in northern Donetsk Oblast heading southwest. Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. New launches of guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast are reported. Николаевский Ванёк reports Russian drone groups heading towards Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Konstantinovka. Сливочный каприз reports active combat north of Verkhnokamyenske and claimed a Russian advance of up to 600 meters on the Hryhorivka-Verkhnokamyenske line. New reports indicate strike UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, course - south/southwest, potentially impacting northern Donetsk Oblast. New launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Народная милиция ДНР, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Сливочный каприз, Николаевский Ванёк)
Sumy Oblast (Sumy, Maryino, Loknya, Okhtyrka): Affected by Russian aerial activity and ground assaults. Russian strike UAVs are active in central and southern Sumy Oblast (southwest/southeast course) and on the border of Sumy and Poltava Oblasts (southeast course), with some heading towards Sumy city. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Multiple groups of Russian UAVs are reported from Sumy Oblast moving towards Chernihiv Oblast. Russia claims the liberation of Maryino and the creation of a "buffer zone" in Belgorod Oblast near Popovka and Demidovka. New Russian strike UAVs are reported in central Sumy Oblast heading southwest. Сливочный каприз reports positional fighting in the area of Sudzha and claimed that Russian forces have expanded their zone of control in the "Sumy security zone" and advanced up to 400 meters in Loknya. Николаевский Ванёк reports Russian drone groups in the area of Okhtyrka. New reports indicate a hostile reconnaissance UAV in southern Sumy Oblast. New launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported on Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна confirms the launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, affecting frontline regions which include parts of Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that before withdrawing from Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces left multi-layered mine obstacles in border areas adjacent to Sumy Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, MoD Russia, Сливочный каприз, Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad)
Kharkiv Oblast (western part, southern part, eastern part, northwestern part): Affected by Russian aerial activity and ground assaults. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs are reported in the north of Kharkiv Oblast. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Kharkiv Oblast from the east. Enemy strike UAVs are active on the border of Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts (east course) and are a threat to Kharkiv Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Kharkiv Oblast. Russian strike UAVs are reported in southern Kharkiv Oblast heading northeast and in eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading west/southwest, and in northwestern Kharkiv Oblast heading southwest. New reports indicate Russian strike UAVs in the eastern and central parts of Kharkiv Oblast moving westward/southwestward. New reports indicate strike UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, course - south/southwest. New launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, affecting frontline regions which include parts of Kharkiv Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district, Pavlohrad, eastern part): Affected by Russian aerial activity, including KAB strikes and drone movements. Enemy strike UAVs are active in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (northeast course) and are a threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with some heading towards Pavlohrad. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian strike UAVs are reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast southwest of Pavlohrad heading south and in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading southeast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Sudzha): Affected by Ukrainian cross-border attacks and claimed Russian defensive actions. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 10 Russian attacks repelled on the Kursk direction with aviation strikes and artillery/MLRS fire. Colonelcassad claims the use of a North Korean 170-mm self-propelled artillery system "Koksan" in the SVO, likely in Kursk Oblast. Сливочный каприз reports positional fighting in the area of Sudzha. Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that before withdrawing from Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces left multi-layered mine obstacles in border areas, particularly noting extensive mining closer to Sudzha. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, Сливочный каприз)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (Popovka, Demidovka): Affected by Ukrainian drone attacks. Russia claims the creation of a "buffer zone" here.
Crimea (Dzhankoy, northern part, Simferopol): Experiencing a massive Ukrainian drone attack overnight. RBC-Ukraine reports a loud explosion in Simferopol. Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Рыбарь, ТАСС, Два майора, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Воин DV)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaporizhzhia city): Affected by Russian aerial activity, including KAB strikes and drone movements. Air raid alert issued in communities except for Zaporizhzhia city due to air activity. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are active in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast (east course) and are a threat to Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air raid alert declared across Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding Zaporizhzhia city). Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The new volunteer detachment claims to fight for "native Zaporizhzhia." (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Воин DV)
Chernihiv Oblast (southeastern part, eastern part, Chernihiv): Affected by Russian aerial activity. Enemy strike UAVs are active in southeastern Chernihiv Oblast (southwest course). Multiple groups of Russian UAVs are reported from Sumy Oblast moving towards Chernihiv Oblast. Russian strike UAVs are reported in eastern Chernihiv Oblast heading west/southwest. New reports indicate Russian strike UAVs in the eastern, center, and southern parts of Chernihiv Oblast heading westward/southwestward and transitioning into Kyiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force and РБК-Україна report the movement of enemy UAVs towards Chernihiv. Николаевский Ванёк reports Russian drone groups near Pryluky and Nizhyn and in northern Chernihiv Oblast. New reports indicate strike UAVs in southern Chernihiv Oblast, course - west/southwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
Poltava Oblast (Myrhorod, northeastern part): Affected by Russian aerial activity. Enemy strike UAVs are active on the border of Sumy and Poltava Oblasts (southeast course) and on the border of Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts (east course), and are a threat to Poltava Oblast, with some heading towards Myrhorod. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Poltava Oblast, with some heading towards Myrhorod. Russian strike UAVs are reported in northeastern Poltava Oblast heading southwest. New reports indicate Russian strike UAVs in northern Poltava Oblast heading westward/southwestward and in the area of Mirhorod. Николаевский Ванёк reports Russian drone groups in northern Poltava Oblast and in the area of Mirhorod. New reports indicate strike UAVs in central and western Poltava Oblast, course - west/southwest, and southwest Poltava Oblast, course - west/southwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк)
Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast (northern part, Kyiv): Affected by Russian aerial activity. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Kyiv Oblast. New reports indicate Russian drone groups north of Kyiv heading westward and transitioning from Chernihiv Oblast into Kyiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force and РБК-Україна report the movement of enemy UAVs towards Cherkasy, potentially impacting Kyiv Oblast's airspace. New reports indicate strike UAVs in northern Kyiv Oblast, course - southwest, and southern Kyiv Oblast, course - west/northwest. New reports indicate a UAV on the southwest of Kyiv Oblast, course - west. Николаевский Ванёк reports 6 drone groups transitioning from Kyiv Oblast (Bila Tserkva district) to Vinnytsia Oblast. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts, course - northwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна)
Prokopyevsk (Russia): Location of an incident involving a Russian servicemember who allegedly stole a car and hit two schoolgirls. (ASTRA)
Haifa Port (Israel): Location of a claimed naval blockade by Yemeni Houthis. (TASS, Colonelcassad)
Sea of Japan: Location of drills by the Russian large landing ship Peresvet. (MoD Russia)
Kozatske (Kherson Oblast): Location where Russian forces reportedly struck with guided bombs. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Location where enemy strike UAVs are reportedly heading. Russian strike UAVs are reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast southwest of Pavlohrad heading south. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Arkhangelsk Oblast (Russia): Location where former Roscosmos head Yuri Borisov is reportedly appointed as senator. (ТАСС)
Cuba: Cuban banks are working to start issuing "Mir" cards. (ТАСС)
Vologda Oblast (Russia) (Nyuksensky district): Location of a scandal involving the daughter of a district head that led to the official's dismissal. ASTRA and Colonelcassad report on this incident. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора)
Sirius (Russia): Putin's visit to a music school here is noted by TASS. (ТАСС)
Cherkasy Oblast (Zolotonosha, Cherkasy, Smila): The Ukrainian Air Force and РБК-Україна report the movement of enemy UAVs towards Zolotonosha and Cherkasy. Николаевский Ванёк reports Russian drone groups north of Cherkasy heading westward and transitioning from Poltava Oblast into Cherkasy Oblast. New reports indicate strike UAVs in eastern and central Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/southwest and west/northwest, and in the Smila area and west of Cherkasy. New reports indicate a UAV on the southeast of Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/northwest, and a UAV on the border of Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts, course - northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 drone groups east of Smila and 3 southwest of Smila, course west. New reports indicate a UAV in the central part of Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/northwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
Latvia: Два майора shares a video and text from Belarusian border guards reporting the discovery of two bodies and an injured refugee on the border with Latvia on May 17th, attributing the deaths to Latvian border guards. (Два майора)
Makhachkala (Dagestan, Russia): ТАСС reports that 67 people were detained after mass conflicts between teenagers. (ТАСС)
Rostov Oblast (Russia): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports that the search continues for convicts who escaped from a military training ground under Rostov more than ten days ago, with two more apprehended but four still at large. ТАСС reports a state of emergency was introduced in Rostov Oblast due to the condition of crops damaged by spring frosts. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС)
Perm Krai (Russia) (Perm): Рыбарь reports on migration issues in Perm Krai, including a high number of registered migrants and concerns about public order and social infrastructure. (Рыбарь)
Zhytomyr Oblast: New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast and drone groups east of Zhytomyr and transitioning from Kyiv Oblast. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, course - west/northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 drone groups east of Zhytomyr, course south. The Ukrainian Air Force warns specifically of enemy strike UAVs heading towards Zhytomyr. РБК-Україна also reports on enemy UAVs moving towards Zhytomyr. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, course - west/northwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна)
Kirovohrad Oblast: New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Vinnytsia Oblast: New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs. This threat is specifically confirmed by РБК-Україна. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, course - west/northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 5 drone groups circling in northern Vinnytsia Oblast and 6 transitioning from Kyiv Oblast (Bila Tserkva district) to Vinnytsia Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force warns specifically of enemy strike UAVs heading towards Koziatyn (Vinnytsia Oblast) from the southeast. New reports indicate a UAV on the northern east of Vinnytsia Oblast, course - west/northwest. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, course - west/northwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
China (Inner Mongolia): New reports suggest potential Chinese development of advanced artillery munitions, specifically a claimed "Suspended Flight Test" of a Chinese analog to UMPK for 152 and 155-mm artillery shells in Inner Mongolia. (Colonelcassad)
Udmurtia (Russia): Location associated with former Senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev, who is facing fraud charges. (ТАСС)
Russia (Vympel Shipyard): Location of a shipyard from which the Ministry of Defense is requiring the recovery of 2.6 billion rubles. (ТАСС)
Russia (Komosomolsk-on-Amur, Khabarovsk Krai): Location of a domestic incident involving a drunk driver and transportation of a minor without a car seat. (Полиция Хабаровского края)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Extremely high and widespread Russian drone activity remains, with large numbers of strike UAVs active across multiple Ukrainian oblasts with various trajectories. Ukraine is conducting a massive drone attack targeting Crimea, which Russian air defense is actively countering. Russia claims downing a large number of Ukrainian UAVs. Ukrainian forces are effectively using drones against Russian personnel, equipment, and logistics. Russian military bloggers are highlighting the claimed effectiveness of Russian drone operations and countermeasures. New and detailed reports specify the movements of numerous Russian strike UAVs across Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with various updated trajectories. A hostile reconnaissance UAV is active in the northeastern direction. Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. New reports detail the movement of numerous Russian drone groups towards Chernihiv, Zolotonosha, Cherkasy, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Konstantinovka, and in the areas of Okhtyrka, northern Poltava Oblast, Pryluky, Nizhyn, northern Chernihiv Oblast, north of Cherkasy, Mirhorod, and transitioning into Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts. New and detailed reports provide updated trajectories for strike UAVs in eastern Kharkiv, southern Chernihiv, central and western Poltava, northern and southern Kyiv, eastern and central Cherkasy, southwest Poltava, western Kyiv, southern Kyiv, eastern and central Cherkasy Oblasts. New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, with the threat in Vinnytsia Oblast specifically confirmed. A hostile reconnaissance UAV is reported in southern Sumy Oblast. Николаевский Ванёк provides further detailed breakdowns of drone movements in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Bilotserkivskyi district areas. New and detailed reports provide updated trajectories for strike UAVs in southwest Kyiv, southeast Cherkasy, border of Kyiv and Cherkasy, and border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк provides further detailed breakdowns of drone movements in Vinnytsia, Kyiv (Bila Tserkva district), and Cherkasy (Smila area) Oblasts, and east of Zhytomyr. The Ukrainian Air Force warns specifically of enemy strike UAVs heading towards Koziatyn (Vinnytsia Oblast) and Zhytomyr. New reports indicate a UAV on the northern east of Vinnytsia Oblast, course - west/northwest, a UAV in the central part of Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/northwest, and a UAV on the border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, course - west/northwest. РБК-Україна also reports on enemy UAVs moving towards Zhytomyr. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Народная милиция ДНР, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Сливочный каприз, Николаевский Ванёк)
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense is actively engaged against the large-scale Russian drone attack, reflected in the widespread air raid alerts. Russian air defense forces are actively countering the Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea. The updated air raid alert map indicates widespread alerts across Ukraine due to ongoing aerial activity, implying Ukrainian air defense engagement. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Russian air defense forces are shooting down many drones targeting Crimea. Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. Ukrainian assets are engaged to shoot down a hostile reconnaissance UAV in southern Sumy Oblast. The widespread air raid alerts in Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and Vinnytsia Oblasts indicate potential Ukrainian air defense activity in these areas, with the threat in Vinnytsia Oblast specifically confirmed. The widespread air raid alerts due to updated drone movements across multiple oblasts indicate continued Ukrainian air defense engagement. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Воин DV, РБК-Україна)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces, including on Donetsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russia claims downing 7 JDAM guided bombs over the past day. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. New reports indicate launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. New launches of guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast are reported. New reports suggest potential Chinese development of a Chinese analog to UMPK for 152 and 155-mm artillery shells, converting them into guided aerial bombs. New launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported on Sumy Oblast and on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. РБК-Україна confirms the launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. (ТАСС, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad)
Missile Activity: Russia claims downing one HIMARS rocket over the past day. (ТАСС)
Aviation Activity: Active Russian tactical aviation on eastern, southeastern, and northeastern directions with threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. New reports indicate launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast by enemy tactical aviation. New launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation towards Donetsk Oblast are reported. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction! (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна)
Naval Activity: Potential threat of enemy uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) near Novorossiysk warned. The SBU claims using surface and aerial drones to destroy a Russian radar and warehouses on gas production platforms in the Black Sea. Yemeni Houthis claim to have established a naval blockade of the Israeli port of Haifa. MoD Russia reports that the large landing ship Peresvet performed artillery firing at coastal, air, and sea targets in the Sea of Japan. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, TASS, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia)
Electronic Warfare (EW): Ukrainian air defense efforts included the use of EW. Mash on Donbass claims Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the DNR last night by air defense and EW. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Mash на Донбассе)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery and MLRS use. Russia claims downing one HIMARS rocket. Russian forces used Grad MLRS to destroy Ukrainian drone teams. A large cache of NATO weapons was reportedly found near Kurakhove, including artillery and mortar shells. Russian sources are highlighting the use of RSZO "Uragan" systems and Grad MLRS. Воин DV shares a video claiming Расчеты РСЗО "Ураган" 29 гвардейской общевойсковой армии группировки "Восток" are striking Ukrainian positions in Алексеевка. New reports suggest potential Chinese development of advanced artillery munitions, specifically a claimed "Suspended Flight Test" of a Chinese analog to UMPK for 152 and 155-mm artillery shells. Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that before withdrawing from Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces left multi-layered mine obstacles, including remotely mined devices using drones, and claims the discovery of large caches of new NATO weapons and ammunition in residential buildings. (ТАСС, MoD Russia, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Воин DV, Colonelcassad)
Reconnaissance Activity: A hostile reconnaissance UAV is reported in southern Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that before withdrawing from Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces used sensors reacting to movement and magnetic fields as part of mine obstacles, which could be linked to reconnaissance efforts. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonelcassad)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Putin discussed the Istanbul negotiations with Tokayev. Erdogan stated the conflict cannot be resolved militarily and Turkey will continue efforts for a settlement. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of Trump's stance on negotiations and the lack of a mediator for Ukrainian interests. The Trump-Putin call concluded with both sides expressing some optimism about potential negotiations. Zelenskyy stated Ukraine will not withdraw troops or yield to ultimatums, desires a ceasefire as a first step, and is considering future meetings in Turkey, Vatican, or Switzerland. Ukraine will not discuss abandoning its NATO course or neutral status. Ukraine is waiting for Russia's proposal for a memorandum. Zelenskyy spoke with Trump twice, including with European leaders, discussing next steps and evaluating proposals. Trump stated there is "some progress" in the Russia-Ukraine settlement and that he believes in Putin's desire for peace in Ukraine. Following the Trump-Putin call, Russian Direct Investment Fund head Dmitriev stated that Russia and the US can be excellent partners in economic and investment cooperation. Colonelcassad comments on Pavel Durov's statements regarding French intelligence and censorship, suggesting a greater willingness to speak freely away from France. The Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine has warned about the creation of fake Telegram accounts of Ukrainian officials. Russian sources, citing The Times, report that US sanctions against Russia now appear less likely than before the Trump-Putin call and that Trump views significant business opportunities with Russia if the war ends. Trump has reiterated that he believes "some progress" was made during his call with Putin and that he is not increasing sanctions against Russia because there is a "chance" for peace. Trump has also stated that he believes the conflict "should have remained a European problem" and that the US "should not have intervened," while simultaneously saying he would consider increasing arms supplies to Kyiv but believes in a settlement. Trump has now also stated that if there is no significant progress on Ukraine, the US will "yield its role in the settlement to Europe." TASS reports that the topic of a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was discussed during the call. Песков has confirmed that contacts between Russia and Ukraine have been "recreated and are continuing," although specific details regarding the location and timeline for further contact or the preparation of a memorandum are not yet decided. Песков also stated that the US is not withdrawing from mediation and that Washington has provided "effective intermediary services," potentially contradicting Trump's statement about yielding the role to Europe if no progress is made. ТАСС reports that the Kremlin knows about the Vatican's offer to host Russia-Ukraine negotiations but a decision has not yet been made, citing Песков. РБК-Україна reports Trump called Zelenskyy before talking to Putin and spoke for a few minutes, citing Axios. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy is awaiting a call from Trump to learn the results of his conversation with Putin, citing Al Jazeera. ТАСС reports Trump confirmed that he touched upon the prospects of their meeting in conversation with Putin. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Песков stating that contacts between Moscow and Kyiv are now recreated and are continuing, specific decisions about the location for further contact have not yet been made, and specific timelines for preparing a memorandum do not exist. ТАСС shares a video of Песков stating there are no exact deadlines for preparing the memorandum with Ukraine, and that "the devil is in the details." РБК-Україна reports on comments from Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov to TASS, reiterating that the topic of a direct contact between Putin and Zelenskyy was discussed during the conversation with Trump, contacts between Russia and Ukraine are now recreated and continuing, although the location and specific timelines for a settlement memorandum are not yet decided. (ТАСС, Два майора, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Песков, Николаевский Ванёк, Сливочный каприз)
Russia-United States Relations: Concerns raised about the potential impact of Trump's stance on negotiations and the lack of a mediator for Ukrainian interests. The Trump-Putin call concluded with both sides expressing some optimism. Trump commented on the call and potential progress. Trump stated there is "some progress" in the Russia-Ukraine settlement. European leaders reportedly agreed to increase sanctions on Russia after the Trump-Putin call, indicating a coordinated response. Trump stated he believes in Putin's desire for peace in Ukraine. Head of RDIF Dmitriev stated that Russia and the US can be excellent partners for economic and investment cooperation. Russian sources, citing The Times, report US sanctions against Russia appear less likely than before the Trump-Putin call, and Trump views significant business opportunities with Russia if the war ends. TASS reports, citing The Times, that the call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions against Russia. Trump has reiterated that he believes "some progress" was made during his call with Putin and that he is not increasing sanctions against Russia because there is a "chance" for peace. Trump has stated that he believes the conflict "should have remained a European problem" and that the US "should not have intervened," while saying he would consider increasing arms supplies to Kyiv but believes in a settlement. Trump has stated that he will be ready within 2-4 weeks to assess whether Ukraine is doing enough for conflict resolution. Trump has stated that if there is no significant progress on Ukraine, the US will "yield its role in the settlement to Europe." TASS reports that the topic of a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was discussed during the call. Песков stated that the US is not withdrawing from mediation and that Washington has provided "effective intermediary services." РБК-Україна reports Trump called Zelenskyy before talking to Putin and spoke for a few minutes, citing Axios. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy is awaiting a call from Trump to learn the results of his conversation with Putin, citing Al Jazeera. ТАСС reports Trump confirmed that he touched upon the prospects of their meeting in conversation with Putin. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Песков stating that the US does not withdraw from mediation and that Washington has provided effective intermediary services. РБК-Україна reports on comments from Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov to TASS, reiterating that the topic of a direct contact between Putin and Zelenskyy was discussed during the conversation with Trump. (Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Басурин о главном, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Песков, Николаевский Ванёк)
Internal Russian Politics: Legislative initiative to expedite housing for military personnel. Simplified Russian citizenship for citizens of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Report on a domestic dispute involving an Iskander missile developer. Putin proposed expanding grant programs to sports and culture and commented on "Sirius". Reports of scandal in Vologda Oblast, fraud scheme in Telegram, and potential constitutional changes. Russian Minister of Justice criticized the Decembrists. Cultural project linking Russian cities. Russian representative at Intervision contest announced. Accepting new members into Pioneer organization on Red Square. Putin expressed condolences for choreographer. Measles outbreak in Moscow. Prosecutor's check on moose incident. Commentary on Alexander Ovechkin. Embezzlement of funds for defensive structures in Belgorod. War-themed poem shared. Head of RDIF Dmitriev stated that Russia and the US can be excellent partners in economic and investment cooperation. The scandal in Vologda Oblast involving the daughter of a district head threatening to send people to the "SVO" has resulted in the official's dismissal. The governor has also recommended that the daughter volunteer in a military hospital and stated that an "SVO participant" will likely be nominated for the vacant position. Putin's visit to a music school in "Sirius" is noted by TASS. ТАСС reports that Rosfinmonitoring is seeking access to data from the "Mir" payment system for combating money laundering and terrorism financing. Colonelcassad comments on using system features for hidden attacks, seemingly referring to cybersecurity issues. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video on controversial interpretations of Islamic marital practices, framed as a concern about migrants and some Russian Muslims consuming this content, likely intended to fuel social tensions and reinforce a specific narrative. ТАСС reports that 67 people were detained in Makhachkala, Dagestan, after mass conflicts between teenagers. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports that the search continues for convicts who escaped from a military training ground under Rostov more than ten days ago, with two more apprehended but four still at large. ТАСС reports a state of emergency was introduced in Rostov Oblast due to the condition of crops damaged by spring frosts. Рыбарь reports on migration issues in Perm Krai, including a high number of registered migrants and concerns about public order and social infrastructure. ТАСС reports that Rosfinmonitoring is requesting access to data from the "Mir" payment system to combat money laundering and financing of terrorism. New reports from Colonelcassad suggest potential Chinese development of advanced artillery munitions with strategic implications. ТАСС reports that former Senator from Udmurtia, Viktor Khoroshavtsev, is accused of six episodes of large-scale fraud. ТАСС reports that Deputy Tatiana Butskaya proposed developing a physical education program for children with special needs and disabilities. ТАСС reports that the Ministry of Defense requires the recovery of 2.6 billion rubles from the Vympel shipyard. ТАСС reports that the total revenue of the 100 largest digital companies in the Russian Federation amounted to 6.7 trillion rubles, a significant increase. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a domestic incident involving a drunk driver and a child. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, ASTRA, Глеб Никитин, Colonelcassad, Новости Москвы, Kotsnews, WarGonzo, Два майора, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Песков, Николаевский Ванёк, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Рыбарь, Полиция Хабаровского края)
Humanitarian Issues: Attempt to evade military service by crossing the border on a monowheel highlights the impact of the conflict and mobilization on individuals. Ukrainian General Staff conducting a survey on financial literacy for military, veterans, and their families. Civilian casualties from Russian attacks continue. Prisoner exchanges are being discussed. FATALITY and injuries from Russian shelling in Sumy Oblast. Reported incident in Prokopyevsk involving a Russian servicemember hitting schoolgirls. Yemeni Houthis claim naval blockade of Haifa. RBC-Ukraine reports a loud explosion in Simferopol. Два майора shares a video and text from Belarusian border guards reporting the discovery of two bodies and an injured refugee on the border with Latvia on May 17th, attributing the deaths to Latvian border guards. Ukrainian Air Force reports a hostile reconnaissance UAV in southern Sumy Oblast, which may be acting as a spotter for enemy weapons. Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that before withdrawing from Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces left multi-layered mine obstacles, including remotely mined devices using drones, and claims the discovery of large caches of new NATO weapons and ammunition in residential buildings, which could pose a humanitarian risk to civilians. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Басурин о главном, ASTRA, TASS, РБК-Україна, Два майора, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonelcassad)
International Pressure: US and Europe will strengthen sanctions if Russia does not negotiate in good faith. European leaders reportedly agreed to increase sanctions on Russia after the Trump-Putin call. Europe will increase pressure on Moscow with sanctions, according to German Chancellor Merz. Russian sources, citing The Times, report US sanctions against Russia appear less likely than before the Trump-Putin call, and Trump views significant business opportunities with Russia if the war ends. TASS reports, citing The Times, that the Trump-Putin call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions against Russia. Trump has reiterated that he is not increasing sanctions against Russia because there is a "chance" for peace. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Басурин о главном, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Belarus-Latvia Tensions: Ongoing tensions and humanitarian concerns on the border. Два майора shares a video and text from Belarusian border guards reporting the discovery of two bodies and an injured refugee on the border with Latvia on May 17th, attributing the deaths to Latvian border guards. (Два майора)
Potential ICC Action: Potential for an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. (РБК-Україна)
Russian Decree on Foreign Harm Monitoring: Putin signed a decree on state monitoring of harm caused by foreign sources. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Colonelcassad)
Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda: Satirical video about burying Russian paratroopers and photo message about turning Russia into a museum exhibit. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares a satirical video claiming local residents buried burnt bodies of Russian paratroopers from the 104th regiment of the VDV in Kursk Oblast. (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Ukrainian Expert Assessment: Assessment that Russia currently lacks sufficient forces for a massive offensive on Sumy Oblast. (РБК-Україна)
Ukrainian Adaptation and Modernization: Efforts to adapt and modernize military vehicles with public support. Operational ZSU shares a video highlighting the modified RSZV BM-21 "Berest" in service with the 36th Marine Brigade. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Polish Presidential Election: Analysis of the first round. (РБК-Україна, Рыбарь)
Romanian Presidential Election: Analysis of the second round and record voter turnout abroad. (Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, НгП раZVедка, РБК-Україна)
Alleged War Crimes: Report of alleged rape by a Russian serviceman in occupied Donetsk Oblast. (ASTRA)
Belarusian Action Against Volunteers: Belarusian authorities initiating criminal proceedings and declaring wanted individuals associated with the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment. (РБК-Україна)
Internal Ukrainian Military Issues: Report on the relief of the Commander of the 59th Separate Mechanized Brigade of Drone Systems. Commander of OSUV "Khortytsia" and Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, Mykhailo Drapatii, commented on the scandal with the 155th Separate Motorized Brigade regarding alleged business on combat payments. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)
Information Operations Targeting Ukrainian Officials: РБК-Україна reports a warning from the Center for Countering Disinformation about the creation of fake Telegram accounts impersonating Ukrainian officials. (РБК-Україна)
Colonelcassad Comments on Durov's Statements and Censorship: Colonelcassad comments on Pavel Durov's statements regarding alleged attempts by French intelligence to establish censorship in Telegram. (Colonelcassad)
Situation in Israel: Yemeni Houthis claim naval blockade of Haifa. (TASS, Colonelcassad)
Cuban Banks to Issue "Mir" Cards: Cuban banks are working to start issuing "Mir" cards. (ТАСС)
Cherkasy Oblast (Zolotonosha, Cherkasy, Smila): The Ukrainian Air Force and РБК-Україна report the movement of enemy UAVs towards Zolotonosha and Cherkasy. Николаевский Ванёк reports Russian drone groups north of Cherkasy heading westward and transitioning from Poltava Oblast into Cherkasy Oblast. New reports indicate strike UAVs in eastern and central Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/southwest and west/northwest, and in the Smila area and west of Cherkasy. New reports indicate a UAV on the southeast of Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/northwest, and a UAV on the border of Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts, course - northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 drone groups east of Smila and 3 southwest of Smila, course west. New reports indicate a UAV in the central part of Cherkasy Oblast, course - west/northwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
Zhytomyr Oblast: New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs from the northeast and drone groups east of Zhytomyr and transitioning from Kyiv Oblast. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, course - west/northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 3 drone groups east of Zhytomyr, course south. The Ukrainian Air Force warns specifically of enemy strike UAVs heading towards Zhytomyr. РБК-Україна also reports on enemy UAVs moving towards Zhytomyr. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, course - west/northwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна)
Kirovohrad Oblast: New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Vinnytsia Oblast: New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs. This threat is specifically confirmed by РБК-Україна. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts, course - west/northwest. Николаевский Ванёк reports 5 drone groups circling in northern Vinnytsia Oblast and 6 transitioning from Kyiv Oblast (Bila Tserkva district) to Vinnytsia Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force warns specifically of enemy strike UAVs heading towards Koziatyn (Vinnytsia Oblast) from the southeast. New reports indicate a UAV on the northern east of Vinnytsia Oblast, course - west/northwest. New reports indicate a UAV on the border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, course - west/northwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк)
China (Inner Mongolia): New reports suggest potential Chinese development of advanced artillery munitions, specifically a claimed "Suspended Flight Test" of a Chinese analog to UMPK for 152 and 155-mm artillery shells in Inner Mongolia. (Colonelcassad)
Udmurtia (Russia): Location associated with former Senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev, who is facing fraud charges. (ТАСС)
Russia (Vympel Shipyard): Location of a shipyard from which the Ministry of Defense is requiring the recovery of 2.6 billion rubles. (ТАСС)
Russia (Komosomolsk-on-Amur, Khabarovsk Krai): Location of a domestic incident involving a drunk driver and transportation of a minor without a car seat. (Полиция Хабаровского края)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The concluded Trump-Putin phone call and Putin's positive characterization of it, including his support for resuming direct talks with Ukraine and willingness to discuss a ceasefire and peace memorandum, are significant strategic developments. While the specifics of any potential agreement remain unclear and the conflicting narratives persist, this high-level engagement keeps a diplomatic channel open and could influence the trajectory of future discussions and the international strategic landscape. ТАСС reports the conclusion and characterization of the call and Putin's statements about supporting resumed talks and discussing a memorandum. РБК-Україна reports Trump called Zelenskyy before speaking to Putin, indicating a degree of coordination. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy is awaiting a call from Trump, highlighting the importance Ukraine places on this communication. ТАСС reports Trump confirmed that he touched upon the prospects of their meeting in conversation with Putin. ТАСС reports the Kremlin knows about the Vatican's offer to host Russia-Ukraine negotiations but a decision has not yet been made, citing Песков. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Песков stating that contacts between Moscow and Kyiv are now recreated and are continuing, specific decisions about the location for further contact have not yet been made, and specific timelines for preparing a memorandum do not exist. ТАСС shares a video of Песков stating there are no exact deadlines for preparing the memorandum with Ukraine, and that "the devil is in the details." РБК-Україна reports on comments from Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov to TASS, reiterating that the topic of a direct contact between Putin and Zelenskyy was discussed during the conversation with Trump, and that contacts between Russia and Ukraine are now recreated and continuing, although the location and specific timelines for a settlement memorandum are not yet decided. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк)
The ongoing and widespread Russian aerial campaign utilizing strike drones and KABs continues to be a primary strategic challenge for Ukraine, aimed at degrading military and civilian infrastructure and pressuring the population. The latest detailed reports on the movement of numerous Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts underscore the breadth and persistence of this strategic effort. New launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast indicate the continued strategic targeting of frontline and border regions with these precision munitions. The presence of widespread air raid alerts across Ukraine reflects the ongoing nature of this strategic aerial assault and its impact on civilian life. A hostile reconnaissance UAV active in the northeastern direction highlights ongoing Russian intelligence gathering efforts. New launches of guided aerial bombs towards Donetsk Oblast are reported. New reports detail the movement of numerous Russian drone groups towards Chernihiv, Zolotonosha, Cherkasy, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Konstantinovka, and in the areas of Okhtyrka, northern Poltava Oblast, Pryluky, Nizhyn, northern Chernihiv Oblast, north of Cherkasy, Mirhorod, and transitioning into Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports that Russian forces attacked Stepnohirsk with at least nine guided aerial bombs (KABs), causing damage. New and detailed reports provide updated trajectories for strike UAVs in eastern Kharkiv, southern Chernihiv, central and western Poltava, northern and southern Kyiv, eastern and central Cherkasy, southwest Poltava, western Kyiv, southern Kyiv, eastern and central Cherkasy Oblasts, indicating the broad geographic scope and persistent nature of this offensive. New reports indicate a threat of enemy strike UAVs in Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, with the threat in Vinnytsia Oblast specifically confirmed, further expanding the potential area affected by this strategic effort. A hostile reconnaissance UAV is reported in southern Sumy Oblast, highlighting ongoing intelligence gathering supporting these strikes. Николаевский Ванёк provides further detailed breakdowns of drone movements, emphasizing the complexity and scale of the ongoing Russian aerial assault. New and detailed reports provide updated trajectories for strike UAVs in southwest Kyiv, southeast Cherkasy, border of Kyiv and Cherkasy, and border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк provides further detailed breakdowns of drone movements in Vinnytsia, Kyiv (Bila Tserkva district), and Cherkasy (Smila area and east of Zhytomyr) Oblasts, highlighting converging drone activity on specific areas. The Ukrainian Air Force warns specifically of enemy strike UAVs heading towards Koziatyn (Vinnytsia Oblast) and Zhytomyr. New reports indicate a UAV on the northern east of Vinnytsia Oblast, a UAV in the central part of Cherkasy Oblast, and a UAV on the border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts. РБК-Україна also reports on enemy UAVs moving towards Zhytomyr. New launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation are reported on Sumy Oblast and on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, indicating continued aerial threat. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк)
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's clear articulation of Ukraine's strategic position remains crucial for defining Ukraine's "red lines" and influencing the framework of any future peace talks. His continued engagement with international figures underscores Ukraine's strategic effort to maintain international support and ensure its voice is heard in high-level discussions. РБК-Україна reports Trump called Zelenskyy before speaking to Putin, indicating a degree of coordination. РБК-Україна reports Zelenskyy is awaiting a call from Trump, highlighting the importance Ukraine places on this communication. (РБК-Україна)
Russia's claims of tactical advances in Donetsk Oblast and on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions, and the claimed liberation of Novoolenovka and Maryino, contribute to their strategic narrative of making progress and can be used to justify continued offensive operations and potentially strengthen their hand in any negotiations. The Russian military bloggers' emphasis on advances and the complicating situation for Ukrainian forces in the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration highlights a strategic focus on this area. Воин DV claiming that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction is a claim of tactical success in countering Ukrainian capabilities in a key area, contributing to the Russian strategic narrative. Z комитет + карта СВО reports Russian forces are advancing near Otradnoye and in Bogatyr. Colonelcassad shares a video and text stating that during clearing operations in the central part of Bogatyr, Russian forces found and eliminated enemy personnel. Сливочный каприз reports active combat north of Verkhnokamyenske and claimed a Russian advance of up to 600 meters on the Hryhorivka-Verkhnokamyenske line. Сливочный каприз reports positional fighting in the area of Sudzha and claimed that Russian forces have expanded their zone of control in the "Sumy security zone" and advanced up to 400 meters in Loknya. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА reports on the Soledar direction, claiming Ukrainian forces attempted to flee across water. Воин DV shares a video showcasing drone operators from three different Russian military units destroying Ukrainian equipment and personnel on the Shakhtersk direction using UAVs. Воин DV shares a video claiming Расчеты РСЗО "Ураган" 29 гвардейской общевойсковой армии группировки "Восток" are striking Ukrainian positions in Алексеевка. Рыбарь provides an analysis of the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border in Kursk Oblast, stating intense battles continue and claiming Russian forces have pushed Ukrainian forces back behind the state border in several areas. Kadyrov_95 shares a video claiming fighters of the Sheikh Mansur battalion are working on the Kharkiv direction and destroyed two enemy strongholds. Dnevnik Desantnika reports on Russian paratrooper drone operations near Chasiv Yar, claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian pickup truck and a UAV control point. Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that before withdrawing from Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces left multi-layered mine obstacles, and claims the discovery of large caches of new NATO weapons and ammunition in residential buildings. (ТАСС, Воин DV, Два майора, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Народная милиция ДНР, MoD Russia, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Сливочный каприз, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА, Kadyrov_95, Dnevnik Desantnika, Рыбарь)
The internal Russian scandal in Vologda Oblast and the dismissal of the official, with the proposed nomination of an "SVO participant" for the vacant position, is strategically significant as it highlights the impact of the conflict on Russian society and the potential for domestic tensions. The emphasis on appointing a participant in the "SVO" for a local leadership role could also be a strategic effort to integrate veterans into civilian structures and demonstrate support for those involved in the conflict. Putin's visit to a music school in "Sirius" is an internal Russian event but can be seen as a strategic effort to highlight state support for talent and education. ТАСС reports that 67 people were detained in Makhachkala, Dagestan, after mass conflicts between teenagers. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports that the search continues for convicts who escaped from a military training ground under Rostov more than ten days ago, with two more apprehended but four still at large. ТАСС reports a state of emergency was introduced in Rostov Oblast due to the condition of crops damaged by spring frosts. Рыбарь reports on migration issues in Perm Krai, including a high number of registered migrants and concerns about public order and social infrastructure. ТАСС reports that Rosfinmonitoring is requesting access to data from the "Mir" payment system to combat money laundering and financing of terrorism. ТАСС reports that former Senator from Udmurtia, Viktor Khoroshavtsev, is accused of six episodes of large-scale fraud, indicating internal corruption issues. ТАСС reports that Deputy Tatiana Butskaya proposed developing a physical education program for children with special needs and disabilities, which is an internal social development. ТАСС reports that the Ministry of Defense requires the recovery of 2.6 billion rubles from the Vympel shipyard, indicating potential issues in military production and supply chain. ТАСС reports that the total revenue of the 100 largest digital companies in the Russian Federation amounted to 6.7 trillion rubles, indicating a potential area of economic strength despite sanctions. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on a domestic incident involving a drunk driver and a child, a local law enforcement matter. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, ASTRA, Глеб Никитин, Colonelcassad, Новости Москвы, Kotsnews, WarGonzo, Два майора, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Песков, Николаевский Ванёк, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Рыбарь, Полиция Хабаровского края)
The reported relief of the Commander of the Ukrainian 59th Separate Mechanized Brigade of Drone Systems is a significant internal military development. Addressing such issues is strategically important for maintaining discipline, trust, and combat effectiveness within Ukrainian forces. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition reports on these changes and the alleged reason for the relief. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition)
The fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for "Frontline Armor" and Starlink stations highlight perceived strategic needs for enhanced protection and communication capabilities, suggesting that existing resources or strategies may be insufficient or vulnerable to current threats. Два майора reports on the "Victory Knife" project, stating they transferred the last funds from serial knives to the "Two Majors" fund and continue to accept orders with profits also going to the fund. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a photo of a fundraising jar indicating a fundraising effort is nearing its goal. Colonelcassad shares a video and text about a fundraising effort for the "Vostok" group of forces. (Два майора, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Colonelcassad)
The agreement among European leaders to increase pressure on Russia with sanctions, and the subsequent commentary on the likelihood of new US sanctions after the Trump-Putin call, are strategically significant development as they indicate potential shifts in the international pressure environment. TASS reporting, citing The Times, that the Trump-Putin call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions suggests a potential strategic outcome of the diplomatic engagement. Trump reiterating that he is not increasing sanctions because there is a "chance" for peace further links potential sanctions to the progress of negotiations. (ТАСС)
The warning about the creation of fake Telegram accounts of Ukrainian officials is strategically significant. This indicates an ongoing information operation aimed at undermining the credibility of Ukrainian leadership and potentially disseminating disinformation. Countering such operations is crucial for maintaining information security and public trust. (РБК-Україна)
Colonelcassad's comments on Pavel Durov's statements and censorship are strategically relevant within the information war. This highlights the focus on controlling and influencing the information space, particularly on platforms like Telegram, which are widely used for disseminating information related to the conflict. (Colonelcassad)
TASS reporting that Yemeni Houthis have claimed to have established a naval blockade of the Israeli port of Haifa, and Colonelcassad's additional commentary, is strategically relevant as it highlights a development in another ongoing conflict that has broader geopolitical implications and can be framed within the context of global tensions and resistance to perceived Western influence. (TASS, Colonelcassad)
MoD Russia reporting that the large landing ship Peresvet performed artillery firing at coastal, air, and sea targets in the Sea of Japan is strategically relevant as it indicates ongoing Russian military activity and training in a different theater of operations, contributing to the overall picture of Russian military posture. (MoD Russia)
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and RBC-Ukraine sharing a video claiming the SBU used surface and aerial drones to destroy a Russian radar and warehouses on gas production platforms in the Black Sea is strategically significant, if verified. This would demonstrate Ukraine's capability to strike Russian assets at sea using a combination of drone types, impacting Russian naval capabilities and control of key infrastructure in the Black Sea. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна)
Colonelcassad claiming the use of a North Korean 170-mm self-propelled artillery system "Koksan" in the SVO, likely in Kursk Oblast, is strategically significant as it suggests the potential involvement of North Korean equipment and personnel in the conflict. This has implications for understanding the nature of Russian military support and potential escalatory dynamics. Colonelcassad shares a video and commentary claiming that before withdrawing from Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces left multi-layered mine obstacles, and claims the discovery of large caches of new NATO weapons and ammunition in residential buildings, which are strategically relevant to understanding the equipment being used in the area. (Colonelcassad)
Оперативний ЗСУ sharing a video highlighting the modified RSZV BM-21 «Берест» in service with the 36th Marine Brigade and discussing planned modernizations is strategically relevant as it showcases Ukrainian military adaptation and modernization efforts. This demonstrates Ukraine's capacity to enhance its existing equipment and maintain operational capabilities. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
The reported explosion in Simferopol, Crimea, is strategically significant as it could indicate successful Ukrainian targeting of military assets or infrastructure in occupied territory. (РБК-Україна)
Cuban banks working to start issuing "Mir" cards is a minor strategic development related to Russia's efforts to expand its payment system internationally, potentially to circumvent sanctions, but it does not have a direct military impact in the immediate term. (ТАСС)
Trump stating he will be ready within 2-4 weeks to assess whether Ukraine is doing enough for conflict resolution introduces a new deadline for assessing the peace process and could influence Ukraine's strategic calculations. (ТАСС)
Trump stating that if there is no significant progress on Ukraine, the US will "yield its role in the settlement to Europe is a major strategic statement about the potential future direction of US involvement in peace negotiations. This could lead to shifts in diplomatic influence and responsibility for mediating the conflict. (ТАСС)
The potential for an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for supporting Russia's war against Ukraine introduces a new dimension of international legal and political pressure on those providing material support to Russia. РБК-Україна reports on this potential legal action. (РБК-Україна)
Putin's signing of a decree on state monitoring of harm caused to Russia by foreign sources, particularly related to restrictive financial measures, is a strategic move to formally document and quantify the impact of external pressure. ТАСС and ASTRA report on this decree. Colonelcassad comments on it. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Colonelcassad)
Ukrainian counter-propaganda efforts, such as the satirical video about burying Russian paratroopers and the photo message about turning Russia into a museum exhibit, are strategically important for countering Russian narratives, maintaining domestic morale, and influencing international perceptions of the conflict. БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС shares the satirical video. Оперативний ЗСУ shares the counter-propaganda photo message. (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
The Ukrainian expert assessment that Russia currently lacks sufficient forces for a massive offensive on Sumy Oblast is strategically important for Ukrainian defensive planning and managing expectations. РБК-Україна shares this assessment. (РБК-Україна)
Ukrainian efforts to adapt and modernize military vehicles with public support highlight the strategic importance of innovation and civilian engagement in bolstering military capabilities. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares the details of the modernized pickup truck. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Ukrainian successes in countering Russian aerial threats, including the claimed downing of "Shaheds" with interceptor drones and a "Zala" UAV with an FPV drone, are strategically important for degrading Russian aerial capabilities. Оперативний ЗСУ shares the video of the "Shahed" downing. Оперативний ЗСУ shares the video of the "Zala" downing. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
The report on the training of cadets of the Air Assault Forces and Naval Infantry in mountainous terrain is strategically important for developing specialized military capabilities. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ shares details of this training. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
The video diary of a Russian soldier under continuous drone attacks provides a raw perspective on battlefield conditions, which has strategic implications for morale. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares this video. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники)
The video of a Ukrainian prisoner of war speaking negatively about Ukrainian commanders and alleged mistreatment is a clear example of Russian information operations. MoD Russia shares this video. (MoD Russia)
New reports indicate widespread Russian drone activity across multiple oblasts with updated trajectories, including in Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and Vinnytsia Oblasts, with the threat in Vinnytsia Oblast specifically confirmed, and a hostile reconnaissance UAV in southern Sumy Oblast. This widespread aerial activity and intelligence gathering are strategic efforts by Russia to strike targets and gather information across a broad area, putting pressure on Ukrainian air defense and military capabilities. New and detailed reports provide updated trajectories for strike UAVs in southwest Kyiv, southeast Cherkasy, border of Kyiv and Cherkasy, and border of Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк provides further detailed breakdowns of drone movements in Vinnytsia, Kyiv (Bila Tserkva district), and Cherkasy (Smila area and east of Zhytomyr) Oblasts, highlighting converging drone activity on specific areas. The Ukrainian Air Force warns specifically of enemy strike UAVs heading towards Koziatyn (Vinnytsia Oblast) and Zhytomyr. New reports indicate a UAV on the northern east of Vinnytsia Oblast, a UAV in the central part of Cherkasy Oblast, and a UAV on the border of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia Oblasts. РБК-Україна also reports on enemy UAVs moving towards Zhytomyr. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна)
The formation of a pro-Russian volunteer detachment composed of former Ukrainian servicemen is a strategically significant development for Russia's efforts to utilize proxy forces and potentially conduct information operations or special tasks in occupied or bordering territories. (Воин DV)
New reports suggesting potential Chinese development of advanced artillery munitions, specifically a claimed "Suspended Flight Test" of a Chinese analog to UMPK for 152 and 155-mm artillery shells and conducting a "Suspended Flight Test" in Inner Mongolia are strategically significant as they point to potential advancements in China's military capabilities and the possibility of providing advanced munitions to Russia or other partners, which could impact the balance of power and the dynamics of the conflict. (Colonelcassad)
New launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast and on the border of Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts indicate continued strategic targeting of frontline and border regions with these precision munitions. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of activity of enemy tactical aviation on the northeastern direction, indicating continued aerial threat. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна)
The report of former Senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev being accused of large-scale fraud is an internal Russian development that, while not directly military, contributes to the broader picture of internal Russian affairs and potential issues with corruption, which can have indirect strategic implications. (ТАСС)
The proposal to develop a physical education program for children with special needs and disabilities is an internal Russian social initiative and does not have direct military strategic implications. (ТАСС)
The Ministry of Defense requiring the recovery of 2.6 billion rubles from the Vympel shipyard is a significant internal Russian economic and legal development related to military production. It could indicate issues with contract fulfillment or quality control within the military-industrial complex, which has strategic implications for Russia's ability to produce and maintain military equipment. (ТАСС)
The reported total revenue of the 100 largest digital companies in the Russian Federation, increasing significantly, is a domestic economic indicator. While not directly military, a strong digital sector can have indirect strategic implications for cybersecurity, information warfare capabilities, and overall economic resilience, particularly in the face of international sanctions. (ТАСС)
A domestic incident in Komosomolsk-on-Amur involving a drunk driver and the transportation of a minor is a local law enforcement matter. While not directly military, such incidents contribute to the overall picture of internal Russian society and can have indirect strategic implications for social stability and public order. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
Colonelcassad's commentary on Ukrainian mine laying tactics in Kursk Oblast, claiming multi-layered obstacles, use of drones, detection sensors, and the discovery of large caches of NATO weapons in residential buildings, is strategically significant. This Russian narrative highlights perceived Ukrainian defensive sophistication in border regions and attempts to frame the presence of Western equipment in civilian areas negatively. If accurate, it has direct implications for Russian tactical operations in these areas, requiring extensive demining efforts and potentially impacting the speed of any Russian advances. The claim of finding NATO weapons in residential buildings could also be used in information operations. (Colonelcassad)

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 20, 2025, 01:28 UTC)

Updated Situation

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Strategic Considerations (Updated)