Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 19, 2025, 22:28 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, and persistent widespread Russian aerial attacks utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs) across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. The most significant development continues to be the concluded telephone conversation between "Putin" and US President Donald Trump, which is now being further interpreted and commented on by both Russian and US sources.
New updates from the latest messages provide further clarity on the diplomatic front and ongoing aerial activity:
Further Interpretation of Trump-Putin Call: The conversation continues to be a central focus. TASS reports, citing The Times, that the call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions against Russia. This contrasts with earlier reports suggesting increased sanctions were being considered. Trump has reiterated that he believes "some progress" was made and that he is not increasing sanctions against Russia because there is a "chance" for peace. This reinforces the narrative of a potential diplomatic opening but also suggests the conditional nature of future US pressure. Trump has also stated that he believes the conflict "should have remained a European problem" and that the US "should not have intervened," while simultaneously saying he would consider increasing arms supplies to Kyiv but believes in a settlement. These seemingly contradictory statements add complexity to understanding his potential future approach. Trump has now also stated that if there is no significant progress on Ukraine, the US will "yield its role in the settlement to Europe." This is a significant statement outlining a potential future shift in the US role in peace mediation. TASS reports that the topic of a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was discussed during the call.Песков has confirmed that contacts between Russia and Ukraine have been "recreated and are continuing," although specific details regarding the location and timeline for further contact or the preparation of a memorandum are not yet decided. Песков also stated that the US is not withdrawing from mediation and that Washington has provided "effective intermediary services," potentially contradicting Trump's statement about yielding the role to Europe if no progress is made.
Updated Russian Drone Movements:New and specific details on the movement of Russian strike UAVs across numerous oblasts are being reported by the Ukrainian Air Force and РБК-Україна. These updates include:
UAVs in southern Kharkiv Oblast heading northeast.
New UAVs in central Sumy Oblast heading southwest.
New UAVs in eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading west/southwest.
UAVs in western Donetsk Oblast heading northeast.
UAVs in northwestern Kharkiv Oblast heading southwest.
UAVs in central and southern Sumy Oblast heading west/southwest.
UAVs in northern Donetsk Oblast heading southwest.
UAVs in eastern Chernihiv Oblast heading west/southwest.
UAVs in northeastern Poltava Oblast heading southwest.
These detailed trajectories indicate the continued widespread nature of the Russian aerial assault and provide insights into potential targeting areas.
Internal Russian Issues:The scandal in Vologda Oblast involving the daughter of a district head threatening to send people to the "SVO" has resulted in the official's dismissal. The governor has also recommended that the daughter volunteer in a military hospital and stated that an "SVO participant" will likely be nominated for the vacant position. This incident and its resolution continue to be highlighted, reflecting internal Russian dynamics related to the conflict and social tensions. Putin's visit to a music school in "Sirius" is noted by TASS, an internal Russian event.
Claimed Destruction of Ukrainian Drone:Воин DV shares a video claiming that Russian drone operators of the "Vostok" group shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. This is a specific claim of Russian success in countering Ukrainian drone capabilities in a key area of ground combat.
Trump's "Red Line":Trump has stated that he has a "red line" concerning US efforts in the peace process for Ukraine, but he did not disclose the details. This introduces an element of uncertainty regarding future US involvement and potential shifts in policy.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, South-Donetsk direction, Romanovka, Krymske, Novoye, Novoolenovka, Dzerzhynsk, Konstantinovka, Myrnograd, Novoekonomicheskoe): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Russia claims tactical advances near Otradnoye and in Bogatyr, and on the Dzerzhynsk and Konstantinovka directions, including entering Romanovka and clearing areas north of Krymske. Russia claims capturing a key Ukrainian stronghold near Novoye. Russia claims the liberation of Novoolenovka. Russian military bloggers are highlighting claimed advances on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions, stating the situation is becoming significantly more complicated for Ukrainian forces east and northeast of the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration, with fighting reportedly shifting closer to Novoekonomicheskoe near Mirnograd and Russian forces moving towards Konstantinovka. Ukrainian sources highlight the effectiveness of their drone units and report successful drone strikes on Russian logistics and against Russian infantry, a quad bike, and a "loaf" vehicle. They also claim the destruction of Russian drone teams and a UAV command post on the right bank of the Dnipro river using Grad MLRS and the burning of a Russian T-72B3 tank on the Lyman direction. Russian sources highlight the use of RSZO "Uragan" systems and Grad MLRS. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 156 combat engagements over the past day across multiple fronts, with particularly intense fighting on the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivsk, Lyman, and Toretsk directions. Russian military bloggers are also highlighting the destruction of Ukrainian equipment, including Bradley and MaxxPro vehicles, near Pokrovsk. New reports indicate Russian strike UAVs in western Donetsk Oblast heading northeast and in northern Donetsk Oblast heading southwest.Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Народная милиция ДНР, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Sumy Oblast (Sumy, Maryino): Affected by Russian aerial activity and ground assaults. Russian strike UAVs are active in central and southern Sumy Oblast (southwest/southeast course) and on the border of Sumy and Poltava Oblasts (southeast course), with some heading towards Sumy city. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation on Sumy Oblast. Multiple groups of Russian UAVs are reported from Sumy Oblast moving towards Chernihiv Oblast. Russia claims the liberation of Maryino and the creation of a "buffer zone" in Belgorod Oblast near Popovka and Demidovka. New reports indicate new Russian strike UAVs in central Sumy Oblast heading southwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, MoD Russia)
Kharkiv Oblast (western part): Affected by Russian aerial activity and ground assaults. Enemy reconnaissance UAVs are reported in the north of Kharkiv Oblast. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Kharkiv Oblast from the east. Enemy strike UAVs are active on the border of Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts (east course) and are a threat to Kharkiv Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Kharkiv Oblast. New reports indicate Russian strike UAVs in southern Kharkiv Oblast heading northeast and in eastern Kharkiv Oblast heading west/southwest, and in northwestern Kharkiv Oblast heading southwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykivskyi district, Pavlohrad): Affected by Russian aerial activity, including KAB strikes and drone movements. Enemy strike UAVs are active in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (northeast course) and are a threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with some heading towards Pavlohrad. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. New reports indicate Russian strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast southwest of Pavlohrad heading south and in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading southeast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kursk Oblast (Russia): Affected by Ukrainian cross-border attacks and claimed Russian defensive actions. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 10 Russian attacks repelled on the Kursk direction with aviation strikes and artillery/MLRS fire. Colonelcassad claims the use of a North Korean 170-mm self-propelled artillery system "Koksan" in the SVO, likely in Kursk Oblast.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (Popovka, Demidovka): Affected by Ukrainian drone attacks. Russia claims the creation of a "buffer zone" here.
Crimea (Dzhankoy, northern part, Simferopol): Experiencing a massive Ukrainian drone attack overnight. RBC-Ukraine reports a loud explosion in Simferopol. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Рыбарь, ТАСС, Два майора, ASTRA, РБК-Україна)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Zaporizhzhia city): Affected by Russian aerial activity, including KAB strikes and drone movements. Air raid alert issued in communities except for Zaporizhzhia city due to air activity. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are active in northern Zaporizhzhia Oblast (east course) and are a threat to Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air raid alert declared across Zaporizhzhia Oblast (excluding Zaporizhzhia city). Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Chernihiv Oblast (southeastern part): Affected by Russian aerial activity. Enemy strike UAVs are active in southeastern Chernihiv Oblast (southwest course). Multiple groups of Russian UAVs are reported from Sumy Oblast moving towards Chernihiv Oblast. New reports indicate Russian strike UAVs in eastern Chernihiv Oblast heading west/southwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Poltava Oblast (Myrhorod, northeastern part): Affected by Russian aerial activity. Enemy strike UAVs are active on the border of Sumy and Poltava Oblasts (southeast course) and on the border of Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts (east course), and are a threat to Poltava Oblast, with some heading towards Myrhorod. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Poltava Oblast, with some heading towards Myrhorod. New reports indicate Russian strike UAVs in northeastern Poltava Oblast heading southwest. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Kyiv Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity. Enemy strike UAVs are a threat to Kyiv Oblast. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Prokopyevsk (Russia): Location of an incident involving a Russian servicemember who allegedly stole a car and hit two schoolgirls. (ASTRA)
Haifa Port (Israel): Location of a claimed naval blockade by Yemeni Houthis. (TASS, Colonelcassad)
Sea of Japan: Location of drills by the Russian large landing ship Peresvet. (MoD Russia)
Kozatske (Kherson Oblast): Location where Russian forces reportedly struck with guided bombs. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Location where enemy strike UAVs are reportedly heading. New reports indicate Russian strike UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast southwest of Pavlohrad heading south. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Arkhangelsk Oblast (Russia): Location where former Roscosmos head Yuri Borisov is reportedly appointed as senator. (ТАСС)
Cuba: Cuban banks are working to start issuing "Mir" cards. (ТАСС)
Vologda Oblast (Russia) (Nyuksensky district): Location of a scandal involving the daughter of a district head that led to the official's dismissal. ASTRA and Colonelcassad report on this incident. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора)
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity:Extremely high and widespread Russian drone activity, with large numbers of strike UAVs active across multiple Ukrainian oblasts with various trajectories. Ukraine is conducting a massive drone attack targeting Crimea, which Russian air defense is actively countering. Russia claims downing a large number of Ukrainian UAVs. Ukrainian forces are effectively using drones against Russian personnel, equipment, and logistics. Russian military bloggers are highlighting the claimed effectiveness of Russian drone operations and countermeasures. New and detailed reports specify the movements of numerous Russian strike UAVs across Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with various updated trajectories. A hostile reconnaissance UAV is active in the northeastern direction.Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Народная милиция ДНР, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense is actively engaged against the large-scale Russian drone attack, reflected in the widespread air raid alerts. Russian air defense forces are actively countering the Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea. The updated air raid alert map indicates widespread alerts across Ukraine due to ongoing aerial activity, implying Ukrainian air defense engagement.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Russian air defense forces are shooting down many drones targeting Crimea.Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces, including on Donetsk, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russia claims downing 7 JDAM guided bombs over the past day. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. New reports indicate launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. (ТАСС, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Missile Activity: Russia claims downing one HIMARS rocket over the past day. (ТАСС)
Aviation Activity: Active Russian tactical aviation on eastern, southeastern, and northeastern directions with threat of aviation weapons for frontline oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is launching КАБs on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast. New reports indicate launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast by enemy tactical aviation. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Naval Activity: Potential threat of enemy uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) near Novorossiysk warned. The SBU claims using surface and aerial drones to destroy a Russian radar and warehouses on gas production platforms in the Black Sea. Yemeni Houthis claim to have established a naval blockade of the Israeli port of Haifa. MoD Russia reports that the large landing ship Peresvet performed artillery firing at coastal, air, and sea targets in the Sea of Japan. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, TASS, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia)
Electronic Warfare (EW): Ukrainian air defense efforts included the use of EW. Mash on Donbass claims Ukrainian drones were destroyed over the DNR last night by air defense and EW. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Mash на Донбассе)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery and MLRS use. Russia claims downing one HIMARS rocket. Russian forces used Grad MLRS to destroy Ukrainian drone teams. A large cache of NATO weapons was reportedly found near Kurakhove, including artillery and mortar shells. Russian sources are highlighting the use of RSZO "Uragan" systems and Grad MLRS. (ТАСС, MoD Russia, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС)
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Putin discussed the Istanbul negotiations with Tokayev. Erdogan stated the conflict cannot be resolved militarily and Turkey will continue efforts for a settlement. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of Trump's stance on negotiations and the lack of a mediator for Ukrainian interests. The Trump-Putin call concluded with both sides expressing some optimism about potential negotiations. Zelenskyy stated Ukraine will not withdraw troops or yield to ultimatums, desires a ceasefire as a first step, and is considering future meetings in Turkey, Vatican, or Switzerland. Ukraine will not discuss abandoning its NATO course or neutral status. Ukraine is waiting for Russia's proposal for a memorandum. Zelenskyy spoke with Trump twice, including with European leaders, discussing next steps and evaluating proposals. Trump stated there is "some progress" in the Russia-Ukraine settlement and that he believes in Putin's desire for peace in Ukraine. Following the Trump-Putin call, Russian Direct Investment Fund head Dmitriev stated that Russia and the US can be excellent partners in economic and investment cooperation. Colonelcassad comments on Pavel Durov's statements regarding French intelligence and censorship, suggesting a greater willingness to speak freely away from France. The Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine has warned about the creation of fake Telegram accounts of Ukrainian officials. Russian sources, citing The Times, report that US sanctions against Russia now appear less likely than before the Trump-Putin call and that Trump views significant business opportunities with Russia if the war ends. Trump has reiterated that he believes "some progress" was made during his call with Putin and that he is not increasing sanctions against Russia because there is a "chance" for peace.Trump has also stated that he believes the conflict "should have remained a European problem" and that the US "should not have intervened," while saying he would consider increasing arms supplies to Kyiv but believes in a settlement.Trump has stated that he will be ready within 2-4 weeks to assess whether Ukraine is doing enough for conflict resolution.Trump has stated that if there is no significant progress on Ukraine, the US will "yield its role in the settlement to Europe."TASS reports that the topic of a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was discussed during the call.Песков has confirmed that contacts between Russia and Ukraine have been "recreated and are continuing."Песков stated that specific details regarding the location and timeline for further contact or the preparation of a memorandum are not yet decided.Песков stated that the US is not withdrawing from mediation and that Washington has provided "effective intermediary services." (ТАСС, Два майора, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Песков)
Russia-United States Relations: Concerns raised about the potential impact of Trump's stance on negotiations and the lack of a mediator for Ukrainian interests. The Trump-Putin call concluded with both sides expressing some optimism. Trump commented on the call and potential progress. Trump stated there is "some progress" in the Russia-Ukraine settlement. European leaders reportedly agreed to increase sanctions on Russia after the Trump-Putin call, indicating a coordinated response. Trump stated he believes in Putin's desire for peace in Ukraine. Head of RDIF Dmitriev stated that Russia and the US can be excellent partners for economic and investment cooperation. Russian sources, citing The Times, report US sanctions against Russia appear less likely than before the call, and Trump views significant business opportunities with Russia if the war ends. TASS reports, citing The Times, that the call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions against Russia.Trump has reiterated that he believes "some progress" was made during his call with Putin and that he is not increasing sanctions against Russia because there is a "chance" for peace.Trump has stated that he believes the conflict "should have remained a European problem" and that the US "should not have intervened," while saying he would consider increasing arms supplies to Kyiv but believes in a settlement.Trump has stated that he will be ready within 2-4 weeks to assess whether Ukraine is doing enough for conflict resolution.Trump has stated that if there is no significant progress on Ukraine, the US will "yield its role in the settlement to Europe."TASS reports that the topic of a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was discussed during the call.Песков stated that the US is not withdrawing from mediation and that Washington has provided "effective intermediary services." (Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Басурин о главном, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Песков)
Internal Russian Politics: Legislative initiative to expedite housing for military personnel. Simplified Russian citizenship for citizens of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Report on a domestic dispute involving an Iskander missile developer. Putin proposed expanding grant programs to sports and culture and commented on "Sirius". Reports of scandal in Vologda Oblast, fraud scheme in Telegram, and potential constitutional changes. Russian Minister of Justice criticized the Decembrists. Cultural project linking Russian cities. Russian representative at Intervision contest announced. Accepting new members into Pioneer organization on Red Square. Putin expressed condolences for choreographer. Measles outbreak in Moscow. Prosecutor's check on moose incident. Commentary on Alexander Ovechkin. Embezzlement of funds for defensive structures in Belgorod. War-themed poem shared. Head of RDIF Dmitriev stated that Russia and the US can be excellent partners in economic and investment cooperation. The scandal in Vologda Oblast involving the daughter of a district head threatening to send people to the "SVO" has resulted in the official's dismissal. The governor has also recommended that the daughter volunteer in a military hospital and stated that an "SVO participant" will likely be nominated for the vacant position. Putin's visit to a music school in "Sirius" is noted by TASS. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, ASTRA, Глеб Никитин, Colonelcassad, Новости Москвы, Kotsnews, WarGonzo, Два майора, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Песков)
Humanitarian Issues: Attempt to evade military service by crossing the border on a monowheel highlights the impact of the conflict and mobilization on individuals. Ukrainian General Staff conducting a survey on financial literacy for military, veterans, and their families. Civilian casualties from Russian attacks continue. Prisoner exchanges are being discussed. FATALITY and injuries from Russian shelling in Sumy Oblast. Reported incident in Prokopyevsk involving a Russian servicemember hitting schoolgirls. Yemeni Houthis claim naval blockade of Haifa. RBC-Ukraine reports a loud explosion in Simferopol. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Офіс Генерального прокурора, Басурин о главном, ASTRA, TASS, РБК-Україна)
International Pressure: US and Europe will strengthen sanctions if Russia does not negotiate in good faith. European leaders reportedly agreed to increase sanctions on Russia after the Trump-Putin call. Europe will increase pressure on Moscow with sanctions, according to German Chancellor Merz. Russian sources, citing The Times, report US sanctions against Russia appear less likely than before the Trump-Putin call, and Trump views significant business opportunities with Russia if the war ends. TASS reports, citing The Times, that the Trump-Putin call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions against Russia.Trump has reiterated that he is not increasing sanctions against Russia because there is a "chance" for peace. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, ASTRA, Басурин о главном, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Belarus-Latvia Tensions: Ongoing tensions and humanitarian concerns on the border. (Два майора)
Potential ICC Action: Potential for an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. (РБК-Україна)
Russian Decree on Foreign Harm Monitoring: Putin signed a decree on state monitoring of harm caused by foreign sources. (ТАСС, ASTRA, Colonelcassad)
Ukrainian Counter-Propaganda: Satirical video about burying Russian paratroopers and photo message about turning Russia into a museum exhibit. (БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Ukrainian Expert Assessment: Assessment that Russia currently lacks sufficient forces for a massive offensive on Sumy Oblast. (РБК-Україна)
Ukrainian Adaptation and Modernization: Efforts to adapt and modernize military vehicles with public support. Operational ZSU shares a video highlighting the modified RSZV BM-21 "Berest" in service with the 36th Marine Brigade. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Polish Presidential Election: Analysis of the first round. (РБК-Україна, Рыбарь)
Romanian Presidential Election: Analysis of the second round and record voter turnout abroad. (Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, НгП раZVедка, РБК-Україна)
Alleged War Crimes: Report of alleged rape by a Russian serviceman in occupied Donetsk Oblast. (ASTRA)
Belarusian Action Against Volunteers: Belarusian authorities initiating criminal proceedings and declaring wanted individuals associated with the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment. (РБК-Україна)
Internal Ukrainian Military Issues: Report on the relief of the Commander of the 59th Separate Mechanized Brigade of Drone Systems. Commander of OSUV "Khortytsia" and Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, Mykhailo Drapatii, commented on the scandal with the 155th Separate Motorized Brigade regarding alleged business on combat payments. (Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)
Information Operations Targeting Ukrainian Officials: РБК-Україна reports a warning from the Center for Countering Disinformation about the creation of fake Telegram accounts impersonating Ukrainian officials. (РБК-Україна)
Colonelcassad Comments on Durov's Statements and Censorship: Colonelcassad comments on Pavel Durov's statements regarding alleged attempts by French intelligence to establish censorship in Telegram. (Colonelcassad)
Situation in Israel: Yemeni Houthis claim naval blockade of Haifa. (TASS, Colonelcassad)
Cuban Banks to Issue "Mir" Cards: Cuban banks are working to start issuing "Mir" cards. (ТАСС)
Internal Russian Issues (Updated)
Internal Security: Internal legal proceedings continue. Criminal cases initiated for remote fraud in Khabarovsk Krai. Incident of women singing the Russian anthem unclothed in Yeysk and police investigation. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkisa in Moscow and the closure of the case against Morgenstern. Полиция Хабаровского края reports two criminal cases for remote fraud. ASTRA reports on the incident in Yeysk and police investigation. TASS reports a fatal traffic accident in Kalmykia. TASS reports a fatal accident involving a gymnast in Magnitogorsk. Mobilization | News | Srochniki provides information on their bot. TASS reports the FSB prevented planned attacks on police by minors in Stavropolye. Reported incident in Prokopyevsk involving a Russian servicemember hitting schoolgirls. TASS reports prosecution requests 19-year sentence for former Deputy Head of the Russian General Staff Khalil Arslanov. The scandal in Vologda Oblast involving the daughter of a district head threatening to send people to the "SVO" has resulted in the official's dismissal. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ТАСС, ASTRA, Полиция Хабаровского края, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, АСТРА, ТАСС)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces claim systematic destruction of Ukrainian strongholds and advances in Donetsk Oblast. Russian aviation is active in border regions. Russian forces are utilizing extensive aerial assets, particularly a large number of strike drones and guided aerial bombs. Russian forces claim downing a large number of Ukrainian UAVs and guided bombs. Russian forces are actively engaged in ground combat across multiple fronts, including making claimed advances. Russian soldier claims to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with hand. Discovery of foreign-made mines in Kursk Oblast. Russian sources highlight the use of various military assets, including RSZO "Uragan" systems and Grad MLRS. Russian military bloggers are highlighting the destruction of Ukrainian equipment. Russia claims the liberation of Novoolenovka and Maryino. Russian sources highlight Akatsiya self-propelled artillery systems, a Grad MLRS crew, and attack drones in action. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 156 combat engagements over the past day across multiple fronts and reports preliminary Russian losses on the Pokrovsk direction (128 personnel, including 74 irretrievable, plus equipment losses). Russian military bloggers are highlighting advances and complicating the situation for Ukrainian forces on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions. Russia claims capturing a key Ukrainian stronghold near Novoye. Russian military bloggers are highlighting the use of RSZO "Uragan" systems and Grad MLRS. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the effectiveness of their drone units and report successful drone strikes. Ukrainian sources claim the destruction of Russian drone teams and a UAV command post on the right bank of the Dnipro river using Grad MLRS and the burning of a Russian T-72B3 tank on the Lyman direction. Russian military bloggers are showcasing successful FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles. Colonelcassad claims the use of a North Korean 170-mm self-propelled artillery system "Koksan" in the SVO, likely in Kursk Oblast. Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators of the "Vostok" group shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Народная милиция ДНР, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Casualties: Civilian casualties reported in Belgorod Oblast due to claimed Ukrainian drone attack. Claims of civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast within a Russian information operation. Civilian casualties reported in the South due to Russian aggression. Reported incident in Prokopyevsk involving a Russian servicemember hitting schoolgirls. The Ukrainian General Staff reports preliminary Russian personnel losses on the Pokrovsk direction (128 personnel, including 74 irretrievable) over the past day. (Два майора, Colonelcassad, Sili oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy, ASTRA, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources continue to promote narratives of military success and criticize Ukrainian actions. Russian military bloggers provide frontline summaries and discuss military topics. Russian sources are highlighting the claimed effectiveness of their air defense and drone capabilities. Incident of women singing the Russian anthem unclothed in Yeysk and police investigation is being reported. Russian sources are highlighting the claimed liberation of settlements and advances. Russian military bloggers are highlighting the effectiveness of their military assets. Russian military bloggers are showcasing successful FPV drone strikes. Colonelcassad claims the use of a North Korean 170-mm self-propelled artillery system "Koksan" in the SVO, likely in Kursk Oblast. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for "Frontline Armor". Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for Starlink stations for Russian paratroopers. The scandal in Vologda Oblast involving the daughter of a district head threatening to send people to the "SVO" and the governor's response are being highlighted in Russian information channels, reflecting internal dynamics.Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators of the "Vostok" group shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction, presented as a success. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Народная милиция ДНР, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, MoD Russia, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Песков)
Judicial System: Legal proceedings against individuals are reported. TASS reports prosecution requests 19-year sentence for former Deputy Head of the Russian General Staff Khalil Arslanov. (ТАСС, Полиция Хабаровского края, ASTRA)
Social Policy: Proposed law on increasing pensions for dependents. Proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support. (ТАСС, ASTRA)
Khabarovsk Krai (Amur district): Location of initiated criminal cases regarding remote fraud. (Полиция Хабаровского края)
Yeysk (Krasnodar Krai, Russia): Location of incident involving women singing the Russian anthem unclothed and police investigation. (ASTRA)
Kalmykia (Russia): Location of a fatal traffic accident. (ТАСС)
Magnitogorsk (Russia): Location of a fatal accident involving a gymnast. (ТАСС)
Vologda Oblast (Russia): Location of a scandal involving the daughter of a district head that led to the official's dismissal. ASTRA and Colonelcassad report on this incident. (МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора)
Mobilization and Recruitment: Information on a bot for reporting on mobilization and conscripts is provided. Kotsnews reports on The New York Times coverage of the need for more soldiers on the front in Ukraine and efforts to attract more women to military service. Reported incident in Prokopyevsk involving a Russian servicemember hitting schoolgirls. (Mobilization | News | Srochniki, Kotsnews, ASTRA)
Stavropolye (Russia): Location where the FSB prevented planned attacks on police by minors. (TASS)
Prokopyevsk (Russia): Location of an incident involving a Russian servicemember who allegedly stole a car and hit two schoolgirls. (ASTRA)
Arkhangelsk Oblast (Russia): Location where former Roscosmos head Yuri Borisov is reportedly appointed as senator. (ТАСС)
Cuba: Cuban banks are working to start issuing "Mir" cards. (ТАСС)
Sirius (Russia):Putin's visit to a music school here is noted by TASS. (ТАСС)
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Military Support (Ukraine): International military aid continues. Fundraising for FPV drones is ongoing. Ukraine is actively engaged in defense and counter-drone operations. Support for military personnel from regional administrations. Ukrainian forces are using drones effectively against Russian armor and personnel and logistics. Ukrainian forces claim destroying Russian drone teams and a UAV command post using Grad MLRS and burning a Russian T-72B3 tank. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the success of their counter-drone efforts. Ukrainian military bloggers are highlighting the effectiveness of their drone units and calling for donations. Ukrainian forces are adapting and modernizing military vehicles with public support. Ukrainian forces are highlighting their capabilities, including a modified RSZV BM-21 "Berest". Ukrainian forces are highlighting successful units. Ukrainian military bloggers are appealing for donations for vehicles. (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Sili oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy, Desantno-shturmovi viyska ZSU, Shef Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Oleksandr Вілкул, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Butusov Plus, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Civilian Support (Ukraine): Civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure reported due to Russian strikes. Commemoration of fallen defenders and historical events. Support from regional administrations. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Олег Синєгубов, Sili oborony Pivdnya Ukrainy, Oleksandr Вілкул, ASTRA)
Military Support (Russia): Russian forces are actively engaged in ground combat and utilizing extensive aerial assets, artillery, and potentially MLRS, indicating ongoing military support for their operations. Proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support. Fundraising for equipment is ongoing. Russian military bloggers are showcasing successful FPV drone strikes. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for "Frontline Armor" to protect military vehicles with steel. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for Starlink stations for Russian paratroopers. Russian sources are highlighting Akatsiya self-propelled artillery systems, a Grad MLRS crew, and attack drones in action. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Народная милиция ДНР, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, MoD Russia, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Veterans Support (Russia): Proposed law on increasing pensions for dependents. Proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support. (ТАСС, ASTRA)
Psychological Support: Cultural diplomacy and commemoration events in Ukraine can provide psychological support. A tragic domestic incident in Russia potentially linked to a returning soldier highlights potential psychological challenges. (РБК-Україна, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація))
Fundraising: STERNENKO and БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС are appealing for donations for the Ukrainian military. ASTRA is appealing for donations. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for "Frontline Armor" to protect military vehicles with steel and for Starlink stations. (STERNENKO, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, ASTRA, Два майора, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults and a large-scale drone attack across multiple fronts and oblasts. Engaging Russian aerial targets with air defense systems, including over Kyiv, with successful engagements reported. Inflicting significant personnel and equipment losses on Russian forces. Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian aerial and artillery attacks. Receiving Abrams tanks from Australia. Repelling Russian assaults involving motorcycles and light armored vehicles. Commemorating fallen defenders and historical events. Regional administrations providing support. Ukrainian forces are effectively using drones against Russian armor and personnel and logistics. Ukrainian forces claim destroying Russian drone teams and a UAV command post on the right bank of the Dnipro river using Grad MLRS and burning a Russian T-72B3 tank on the Lyman direction. Ukrainian sources are highlighting the success of their counter-drone efforts, including the downing of "Shaheds" with heavy machine guns. Ukrainian military bloggers are highlighting the effectiveness of their drone units. Ukrainian forces are adapting and modernizing military vehicles with public support. Ukrainian forces are highlighting their capabilities, including a modified RSZV BM-21 "Berest". Ukrainian forces are highlighting successful units. Ukrainian military bloggers are appealing for donations for vehicles. Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade urges installation of anti-drone netting. New and detailed reports indicate the movements of numerous Russian strike UAVs across several Ukrainian oblasts, implying ongoing Ukrainian air defense engagement.РБК-Україна reports a loud explosion in Simferopol, Crimea, which could indicate Ukrainian activity.Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Олександр Вілкул, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, MoD Russia, DeepState, STERNENKO, Народная милиция ДНР, Поддубный |Z|O|V| edition, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Воин DV)
Russian Forces: Conducting intense ground assaults, claiming tactical successes, and utilizing extensive aerial assets, particularly a large number of strike drones and guided aerial bombs across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. Utilizing artillery and potentially MLRS and aviation in border regions. Engaging in extensive information operations and propaganda. Claiming downing a large number of Ukrainian drones and guided bombs. Actively engaged in ground combat across multiple fronts, including making claimed advances. Utilizing and developing drone technology. Russian soldier claims to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with hand. Discovery of foreign-made mines in Kursk Oblast. Utilizing motorcycles and light armored vehicles in assaults. Russian sources are highlighting the use of various military assets, including RSZO "Uragan" systems and Grad MLRS. Russian military bloggers are highlighting the destruction of Ukrainian equipment. Russian military bloggers are showcasing successful FPV drone strikes. Colonelcassad claims the use of a North Korean 170-mm self-propelled artillery system "Koksan" in the SVO, likely in Kursk Oblast. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for "Frontline Armor" to protect military vehicles with steel and for Starlink stations. Russia claims the liberation of Maryino and the creation of a "buffer zone" in Belgorod Oblast near Popovka and Demidovka. Russia claims the liberation of Novoolenovka. Russian sources highlight Akatsiya self-propelled artillery systems, a Grad MLRS crew, and attack drones in action. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 156 combat engagements over the past day across multiple fronts and reports preliminary Russian losses on the Pokrovsk direction (128 personnel, including 74 irretrievable, plus equipment losses). Russian military bloggers are highlighting advances and complicating the situation for Ukrainian forces on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions. Russia claims capturing a key Ukrainian stronghold near Novoye. New and detailed reports specify the movements of numerous Russian strike UAVs across Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with various updated trajectories. A hostile reconnaissance UAV is active in the northeastern direction.Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators of the "Vostok" group shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Два майора, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Народная милиция ДНР, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, MoD Russia, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey is playing a facilitating role in potential negotiations. The US is engaging in diplomatic efforts. Speculation continues regarding former US President Trump's potential involvement. NATO members are participating in military exercises and providing aid. A Ukrainian citizen is involved in a criminal investigation in the UK. A US representative will be present at the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul. Ukraine is engaging with the Vatican on humanitarian issues. Finnish President Stubb commented on Trump's stance and potential new US sanctions. Leaders from Britain, Germany, Poland, and France plan to speak with Donald Trump before his conversation with Putin. Australia is providing Abrams tanks to Ukraine. A Hungarian official commented on Ukraine's EU accession. Romania alleges Russian interference in elections. Russia has detained a Liberian-flagged oil tanker that left an Estonian port. Denmark is providing Ukraine with unmanned maritime vessels as part of a new aid package. Syrian developments involving pro-Turkish groups are reported. Оперативний ЗСУ reiterates Keith Kellogg's statement on the US peace plan. Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 share photos and text about President Zelenskyy meeting with Pope Leo XIV. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on Finnish President Stubb's comments on Trump's stance and potential new US sanctions. ТАСС reports a Hungarian official commented on Ukraine's EU accession. ТАСС reports that the Romanian Foreign Ministry has stated there are signs of Russian interference in the presidential elections. Alex Parker Returns comments on the French Foreign Ministry statement regarding interference in Romanian elections. ASTRA reports that Russia detained a Liberian-flagged oil tanker that left an Estonian port. Оперативний ЗСУ also reports on this incident. НгП раZVедка and Два майора provide further details on the Russian detention of the oil tanker. Два майора reports that Denmark will place unique American unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in the Baltic Sea. Рыбарь reports on Syrian developments involving pro-Turkish groups. ТАСС reports, citing Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó, that Hungary has no obligation to provide military assistance to Ukraine. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a report citing the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on alleged Russian interference in the presidential elections. Colonelcassad provides a critical commentary on alleged French interference in Romanian elections and Telegram censorship. Басурин о главном claims a Russian drone operator destroyed a US-made Stryker. WarGonzo reports on the Russian detention of a Liberian-flagged tanker. РБК-Україна reports on an interview discussing Polish elections. ТАСС reports that Finnish President Stubb tried to dissuade Trump from rapprochement with Russia. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Starmer discussed the war with leaders from the US, Italy, France, and Germany ahead of Trump's call with Putin. Colonelcassad provides a critical commentary on the Romanian elections. РБК-Україна reports on new US sanctions being prepared against Russia if peace talks are not conducted in good faith, with criticism from the Trump camp. Операция Z: Russian Military Correspondents reports on the US giving Australia permission to re-export Abrams tanks. Kotsnews reports on discussions among European leaders (Germany, Italy) on the readiness for troop deployment in Ukraine and the focus on achieving a ceasefire and clarifying formats for peace talks and security guarantees. Kotsnews also reports on a high-ranking White House official stating that a Trump-Putin meeting to establish peace is "inevitable". Дневник Десантника reports on NATO conducting aerial reconnaissance. TASS reports, citing The Times, that the Trump-Putin call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions against Russia.Trump has stated that if there is no significant progress on Ukraine, the US will "yield its role in the settlement to Europe."TASS reports that the topic of a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was discussed during the call.Песков stated that the US is not withdrawing from mediation and that Washington has provided "effective intermediary services." (ТАСС, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Басурин о главном, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Песков)
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of various types of drones by both sides (strike UAVs, FPV drones, reconnaissance drones). Employment of guided aerial bombs and artillery/MLRS. Potential threat of USVs. Russian military bloggers are showcasing successful FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles. Claimed Russian destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles using drones. Ukrainian forces are using drones against Russian quad bikes and a motorcycle. Claimed destruction of a Russian T-72B3 tank on the Lyman direction, potentially involving drone targeting. Russian military bloggers are fundraising for "Frontline Armor" to protect military vehicles with steel and for Starlink stations. Deputy Commander of 3rd Assault Brigade urges installation of anti-drone netting. MoD Russia reports engaging 142 concentration areas of Ukrainian manpower and military hardware using operational-tactical aviation, strike drones, and missile troops and artillery. Russian sources highlight Akatsiya self-propelled artillery systems, a Grad MLRS crew, and attack drones in action. Russian military bloggers are highlighting the use of RSZO "Uragan" systems and Grad MLRS. Russian military bloggers are highlighting the destruction of Ukrainian equipment. Ukrainian forces are highlighting their capabilities, including a modified RSZV BM-21 "Berest". Ukrainian military bloggers are showcasing successful FPV drone strikes. Colonelcassad claims the use of a North Korean 170-mm self-propelled artillery system "Koksan" in the SVO, likely in Kursk Oblast. New and detailed reports specify the movements of numerous Russian strike UAVs across several Ukrainian oblasts, implying ongoing aerial activity.Воин DV claims that Russian drone operators of the "Vostok" group shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ASTRA, ТАСС, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Народная милиция ДНР, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, MoD Russia, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Personnel: Both sides reporting significant personnel losses. Russian forces deploying personnel from various units. Ukrainian forces facing mobilization challenges. Internal military review of the 47th Brigade allegations and investigation into the 155th Brigade. Attempt to evade military service. Commemorations of fallen soldiers. Discussion of prisoner exchanges. Commander of OSUV "Khortytsia" and Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine commented on the scandal with the 155th Separate Motorized Brigade regarding alleged business on combat payments. Reported incident in Prokopyevsk involving a Russian servicemember hitting schoolgirls. TASS reports prosecution requests 19-year sentence for former Deputy Head of the Russian General Staff Khalil Arslanov. Ukrainian General Staff reports preliminary Russian personnel losses on the Pokrovsk direction (128 personnel, including 74 irretrievable) over the past day. Russian military bloggers are highlighting the bravery and actions of Russian soldiers. (ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Военкор Котенок, Mash на Донbasse, Басурин о главном, WarGonzo, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Poddubny |Z|O|V| edition, STERNENKO, Два майора, Narodnaya militsiya DNR, Воин DV, ASTRA, ТАСС)
Counterintelligence: Reported detention of a Ukrainian citizen in occupied Rubizhne for alleged espionage. Reported detention of a 17-year-old FSB agent in Kyiv. (Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The ongoing and widespread Russian aerial campaign utilizing strike drones and KABs continues to be a primary strategic challenge for Ukraine, aimed at degrading military and civilian infrastructure and pressuring the population. The latest detailed reports on the movement of numerous Russian strike UAVs across multiple oblasts underscore the breadth and persistence of this strategic effort. New launches of guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast indicate the continued strategic targeting of frontline and border regions with these precision munitions. The presence of widespread air raid alerts across Ukraine reflects the ongoing nature of this strategic aerial assault and its impact on civilian life. A hostile reconnaissance UAV active in the northeastern direction highlights ongoing Russian intelligence gathering efforts. (Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
The concluded Trump-Putin phone call remains a significant strategic development, with the latest interpretations and commentary shaping the diplomatic landscape.TASS reporting, citing The Times, that the call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions against Russia suggests a potential shift in the strategic environment of international pressure. Trump reiterating that he is not increasing sanctions because there is a "chance" for peace reinforces the idea that the prospect of negotiations is currently influencing US policy. Trump's statement that if there is no significant progress on Ukraine, the US will "yield its role in the settlement to Europe" is a major strategic statement that could significantly alter the future dynamics of peace mediation. This could potentially shift diplomatic responsibility and influence to European actors. Песков confirming that contacts between Russia and Ukraine are continuing after the call, and that the topic of a direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting was discussed, keeps a diplomatic channel open and is strategically relevant, although the lack of concrete decisions on future talks or a memorandum suggests the early stage of this potential renewed dialogue. (ТАСС, Два майора, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Песков)
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's clear articulation of Ukraine's strategic position remains crucial for defining Ukraine's "red lines" and influencing the framework of any future peace talks. His continued engagement with international figures underscores Ukraine's strategic effort to maintain international support and ensure its voice is heard in high-level discussions.
Russia's claims of tactical advances in Donetsk Oblast and on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions, and the claimed liberation of Novoolenovka and Maryino, contribute to their strategic narrative of making progress and can be used to justify continued offensive operations and potentially strengthen their hand in any negotiations. The Russian military bloggers' emphasis on advances and the complicating situation for Ukrainian forces in the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration highlights a strategic focus on this area. Воин DV claiming that Russian drone operators shot down another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" bomber drone on the South-Donetsk direction is a claim of tactical success in countering Ukrainian capabilities in a key area, contributing to the Russian strategic narrative. (ТАСС, Воин DV, Два майора, Colonelcassad, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Народная милиция ДНР, MoD Russia, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
The internal Russian scandal in Vologda Oblast and the dismissal of the official, with the proposed nomination of an "SVO participant" for the vacant position, is strategically significant as it highlights the impact of the conflict on Russian society and the potential for domestic tensions. The emphasis on appointing a participant in the "SVO" for a local leadership role could also be a strategic effort to integrate veterans into civilian structures and demonstrate support for those involved in the conflict. Putin's visit to a music school in "Sirius" is an internal Russian event but can be seen as a strategic effort to highlight state support for talent and education. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, БУТУСУВ ПЛЮС, ASTRA, Глеб Никитин, Colonelcassad, Новости Москвы, Kotsnews, WarGonzo, Два майора, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Песков)
The reported relief of the Commander of the Ukrainian 59th Separate Mechanized Brigade of Drone Systems and the comments from a high-ranking Ukrainian commander regarding the scandal with the 155th Separate Motorized Brigade and alleged corruption are significant internal military developments. Addressing such issues is strategically important for maintaining discipline, trust, and combat effectiveness within Ukrainian forces.
The fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for "Frontline Armor" and Starlink stations highlight perceived strategic needs for enhanced protection and communication capabilities, suggesting that existing resources or strategies may be insufficient or vulnerable to current threats.
The agreement among European leaders to increase pressure on Russia with sanctions, and the subsequent commentary on the likelihood of new US sanctions after the Trump-Putin call, are strategically significant development as they indicate potential shifts in the international pressure environment.TASS reporting, citing The Times, that the Trump-Putin call reduced the likelihood of new US sanctions suggests a potential strategic outcome of the diplomatic engagement.Trump reiterating that he is not increasing sanctions because there is a "chance" for peace further links potential sanctions to the progress of negotiations.
The warning about the creation of fake Telegram accounts of Ukrainian officials is strategically significant. This indicates an ongoing information operation aimed at undermining the credibility of Ukrainian leadership and potentially disseminating disinformation. Countering such operations is crucial for maintaining information security and public trust.
Colonelcassad's comments on Pavel Durov's statements and censorship are strategically relevant within the information war. This highlights the focus on controlling and influencing the information space, particularly on platforms like Telegram, which are widely used for disseminating information related to the conflict.
TASS reporting that Yemeni Houthis have claimed to have established a naval blockade of the Israeli port of Haifa, and Colonelcassad's additional commentary, is strategically relevant as it highlights a development in another ongoing conflict that has broader geopolitical implications and can be framed within the context of global tensions and resistance to perceived Western influence.
MoD Russia reporting that the large landing ship Peresvet performed artillery firing at coastal, air, and sea targets in the Sea of Japan is strategically relevant as it indicates ongoing Russian military activity and training in a different theater of operations, contributing to the overall picture of Russian military posture.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and RBC-Ukraine sharing a video claiming the SBU used surface and aerial drones to destroy a Russian radar and warehouses on gas production platforms in the Black Sea is strategically significant, if verified. This would demonstrate Ukraine's capability to strike Russian assets at sea using a combination of drone types, impacting Russian naval capabilities and control of key infrastructure in the Black Sea.
Colonelcassad claiming the use of a North Korean 170-mm self-propelled artillery system "Koksan" in the SVO, likely in Kursk Oblast, is strategically significant as it suggests the potential involvement of North Korean equipment and personnel in the conflict. This has implications for understanding the nature of Russian military support and potential escalatory dynamics.
Оперативний ЗСУ sharing a video highlighting the modified RSZV BM-21 «Берест» in service with the 36th Marine Brigade and discussing planned modernizations is strategically relevant as it showcases Ukrainian military adaptation and modernization efforts. This demonstrates Ukraine's capacity to enhance its existing equipment and maintain operational capabilities.
The reported explosion in Simferopol, Crimea, is strategically significant as it could indicate successful Ukrainian targeting of military assets or infrastructure in occupied territory.
Cuban banks working to start issuing "Mir" cards is a minor strategic development related to Russia's efforts to expand its payment system internationally, potentially to circumvent sanctions, but it does not have a direct military impact in the immediate term.
Trump stating he will be ready within 2-4 weeks to assess whether Ukraine is doing enough for conflict resolution introduces a new deadline for assessing the peace process and could influence Ukraine's strategic calculations.
Trump stating that if there is no significant progress on Ukraine, the US will yield its role in the settlement to Europe is a major strategic statement about the potential future direction of US involvement in peace negotiations. This could lead to shifts in diplomatic influence and responsibility for mediating the conflict.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
