Sitrep 2025-05-19 05:45:07

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 19, 2025, 05:43 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be characterized by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, and a significant, widespread Russian aerial offensive utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs) across various regions of Ukraine. A notable development is the confirmed massive Ukrainian drone attack targeting Crimea overnight. Ground combat remains intense, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, alongside ongoing diplomatic and political maneuvering. Russian forces continue active offensive operations, claiming tactical gains on multiple fronts. Diplomatic activities continue with discussions concerning the conflict and potential peace initiatives. Significant internal Russian issues, including crime reports and political statements, are also being noted. A new development involves the confirmed shipment of retired Australian Abrams tanks to Ukraine and the planned large-scale production of US missiles in Europe. Recent reports highlight detailed Russian drone movements across multiple oblasts, confirm continued use of guided aerial bombs, and include claims of destruction of NATO equipment by Russian FPV drones on the Pokrovsk direction. The Ukrainian General Staff provides an updated assessment of the naval situation in the Black, Azov, and Mediterranean Seas. Russia is promoting advancements in drone technology and utilizing various information operations. A new development involves Russia planning a "training and combat" launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) RS-24 "Yars" on the night of May 19th, characterized by Ukrainian intelligence (GUR) as a tactic to intimidate Ukraine, EU, and NATO states. Russia claims the liberation of Bogatyr has strategically impacted Ukrainian defenses on the South Donetsk direction. Germany is reportedly seeking decisive action from Italy regarding Russia's war against Ukraine. Russia provides a comprehensive daily military report claiming advances and hitting Ukrainian forces and equipment across multiple fronts. Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reports that Russia is conducting the "Doppelganger" information special operation during the elections in Poland, disseminating disinformation critical of Polish support for Ukraine and the government. Alex Parker Returns reports a new historical record for voter turnout abroad in the Romanian presidential elections. The DNR People's Militia reports that a Kornet ATGM crew destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold near Dzerzhinsk. TASS reports a murder and dismemberment case in Moscow. Ukrainian sources report on a police investigation in Kharkiv regarding the death of a man who reportedly jumped from a TCC window, highlighting potential internal issues related to mobilization. Arkhangel Spetsnaza reports on NATO exercises ("Griffin Lightning - 2025") in Lithuania near the borders of Russia and Belarus involving over 16,000 servicemen. Colonelcassad shares a video featuring Russian soldiers allegedly using a Porsche Cayenne for off-road transportation, used as a contrasting example. War Correspondent Kotenok shares a video compilation claiming to show footage from the liberation of Bogatyr. RBC-Ukraine reports that a Hamas leader, Muhammad Sinwar, was found dead in a tunnel in Gaza after an Israeli strike. TASS reports that the Russian Minister of Culture could not attend the Pope's inauguration due to inconsistencies in the air route. Operation Z: Russian Military Correspondents shares a video claiming to show heavy fighting near Pokrovsk. TASS reports the discovery of two bags with body fragments in Moscow and the detention of a suspect. Moscow News reports an expected thunderstorm in Moscow. ASTRA reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkisa, co-founder of the crypto project Blum and former Binance CIS director, on fraud charges in Moscow. TASS reports that Lev Yashin was recognized as the best goalkeeper in history. Military Correspondent Voin DV reports on the strategic implications of liberating Bogatyr. Два майора shares photos of Russian soldiers in various mundane settings. Operational Armed Forces of Ukraine shares a video of a Russian ground robotic complex, presented critically. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Administration commemorates the Day of Remembrance of the Victims of the Genocide of the Crimean Tatar People. Colonelcassad reports the death of a decorated Russian scout-sniper. ASTRA reports a scandal in Vologda Oblast where the 19-year-old daughter of a district head allegedly threatened to send people to the SVO. The International Association of Ultrarunners has reportedly refused to recognize Russian athlete Ivan Zaborsky's world record due to the Russian flag. Carpathians have experienced renewed snowfall in May. Bloomberg, citing a source, reports that Putin is confident that Russia can fully capture four oblasts of Ukraine by the end of the year, and due to this confidence, the Kremlin is not inclined towards significant concessions in talks with Trump. Police in Khabarovsk Krai have initiated two criminal cases regarding remote fraud. The governor of Belgorod Oblast reports that a Ukrainian drone attacked a bus in Shebekino, injuring the driver. The governor of Bryansk Oblast reports that eight Ukrainian UAVs of aircraft type were detected and destroyed over the territory of Bryansk Oblast overnight. ASTRA reports that 35 UAVs were shot down over the territory of the Russian Federation and annexed Crimea overnight. TASS reports that a large cache of NATO-style weapons and ammunition was discovered near Kurakhovo.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Putin's Confidence in Capturing Four Oblasts and Implications for Trump Talks: РБК-Україна, Два майора, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны all report on a Bloomberg article citing a source familiar with Putin's thinking. The core claim is that Putin is confident that Russian forces can break through Ukrainian defenses by the end of the year and fully capture the four regions he considers "part of the Russian Federation." This confidence is reportedly leading the Kremlin to be unwilling to make significant concessions to Trump during their upcoming conversation. The reports also suggest that Russia is prepared for a protracted war if necessary to achieve its goals and is optimistic about the prospect of further US sanctions. European officials are reportedly concerned about this and are attempting to prevent Trump from making a hasty deal. A phone call between European leaders and Zelenskyy with Trump reportedly aimed to impress upon Trump that Putin is trying to manipulate him. Zelenskyy is described as appearing "depressed and exhausted" during this call, believing Trump would impose new sanctions, which did not happen. Оперативний ЗСУ and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 also report on this Bloomberg assessment, emphasizing Putin's confidence and lack of inclination for concessions. This is a highly significant update regarding Russia's strategic outlook and its potential impact on diplomatic efforts, particularly concerning the planned Trump-Putin talks. It suggests that Russia's perceived military position is influencing its diplomatic stance.
Romania Presidential Election Outcome Confirmed: ASTRA reports that the pro-European Mayor of Bucharest, Nicușor Dan, won the presidential elections in Romania. His main opponent, the nationalist George Simion, has reportedly conceded defeat. This confirms the outcome of an election in a key neighboring country and suggests the continuation of a pro-European political trajectory in Romania.
Six Drone Hits and Damage in Sumy Oblast: Оперативний ЗСУ reports preliminary information from the Sumy Oblast Military Administration indicating six drone hits in the Shostka community. Enterprise infrastructure was damaged, and a 44-year-old security guard was injured. Four houses in the community were also damaged. An emergency rescue operation is ongoing. РБК-Україна corroborates this report, confirming six drone hits and damage to enterprise infrastructure and four houses in the Shostka community, as well as the injury to a 44-year-old security guard. This confirms successful Russian drone strikes in Sumy Oblast, resulting in damage to infrastructure and civilian casualties.
Two Criminal Cases for Remote Fraud Initiated in Khabarovsk Krai: Полиция Хабаровского края reports that two criminal cases have been initiated in the Amur district of Khabarovsk Krai regarding remote fraud. In one instance, a resident lost 187,000 rubles after providing SMS codes to a scammer impersonating an energy company employee. In the second case, a teacher discovered a 30,000 ruble loan was taken out on her electronic bank card and spent on unknown purchases. This highlights ongoing internal Russian issues related to crime and cybersecurity.
Ukrainian Drone Attacks Bus in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, Injuring Driver: Два майора reports, citing the governor of Belgorod Oblast, that a Ukrainian drone attacked a bus in the city of Shebekino. The driver was injured. This confirms continued Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian territory and resulting in civilian casualties and impact on civilian infrastructure.
Eight Ukrainian UAVs Destroyed Over Bryansk Oblast: AV БогомаZ, the governor of Bryansk Oblast, reports that eight Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were detected and destroyed over the territory of Bryansk Oblast overnight by the air defense forces of the Ministry of Defense. No casualties or destruction were reported. This indicates continued Ukrainian aerial activity targeting Russian territory and Russian air defense effectiveness.
Russian Ministry of Defense Claims 35 UAVs Shot Down Overnight: ASTRA and ТАСС report that the Russian Ministry of Defense claims 35 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over the territory of the Russian Federation and annexed Crimea overnight. ASTRA specifies the locations: 26 over Crimea, 8 over Bryansk Oblast, and one over Belgorod Oblast. This provides the overall Russian claimed statistics for drone interceptions.
Large Cache of NATO-Style Weapons Found Near Kurakhovo: ТАСС reports that a large cache of NATO-style weapons and ammunition was discovered near Kurakhovo. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the DNR, nearly 2,000 rounds of ammunition were found. This is a Russian claim of discovering Ukrainian military supplies.
Abrams Tanks from Australia to Ukraine Confirmed: РБК-Україна and STERNENKO report that Australia has sent a batch of retired Abrams tanks to Ukraine. RBC-Ukraine, citing ABC, states that the first part of 49 Abrams M1A1 tanks has begun loading onto a cargo ship. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reportedly thanked Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for the transfer. The current location and arrival date in Europe are not disclosed for security reasons. This is a significant development in international military support for Ukraine, providing additional heavy armor capabilities.
Internal Russian Discussion on Pensions for Dependents: ТАСС reports that a draft law has been submitted to the State Duma proposing an increase in pensions for all dependents, removing the current limit of three family members. This is an internal Russian social policy development.
Russian Military Blogger Commentary on Black Africa Events: Рыбарь provides a video summary of significant events in Black Africa from May 16-18. This includes clashes in Tripoli, Libya following an attempt to disarm groups, the kidnapping of an opposition candidate in Congo ahead of elections, and continued ethnic conflict in Darfur, Sudan, with Russia potentially offering mediation. This provides a Russian perspective on other global conflicts.
Discussion Among European Leaders and Trump on Ukraine Ahead of Putin Call: ASTRA reports that heads of state and government from Germany, France, the UK, and Italy discussed Ukraine with Trump ahead of his conversation with Putin. French President Macron reportedly wrote on social media that "Tomorrow President Putin must show that he wants peace by accepting the 30-day unconditional ceasefire proposed by President Trump and supported by Ukraine and Europe." The press service of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer reportedly stated they discussed applying sanctions if Russia is not serious about a ceasefire and peace talks. This highlights continued high-level diplomatic efforts by Western partners to coordinate strategy regarding the conflict and potential negotiations, specifically focusing on influencing the upcoming Trump-Putin call and the prospect of a ceasefire and sanctions.
Detailed Report on Russian Actions and Ukrainian Losses (May 18): Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides an operational update for the situation as of 08:00 on May 19, summarizing events of the previous day (May 18). Key figures include:
- 175 combat engagements.
- 78 aviation strikes by the aggressor, dropping 124 guided aerial bombs.
- 2904 kamikaze drones used by the aggressor.
- 5134 shellings by the aggressor on Ukrainian positions and settlements, including 116 from MLRS.
- Ukrainian defense forces hit 5 areas of personnel/equipment concentration, 1 artillery piece, 2 command posts, and 1 other important target.
- Detailed breakdown of combat engagements and enemy attacks by direction: 6 assaults on Kharkiv, 2 attacks on Kupiansk, 22 attacks on Lyman, 6 attacks on Siversk, 9 combat engagements on Kramatorsk, 11 attacks on Toretsk, 65 assaults/offensive actions on Pokrovsk, 24 attacks on Novopavlivka, 0 combat engagements on Huliaipole, 2 enemy assaults on Orikhiv, 1 attempted advance on Prydniprovskyi, and 18 combat engagements on Kursk.
- Enemy actions on the Kursk direction included 19 aviation strikes, 35 guided bombs, and 236 artillery shellings.
- Estimated Russian losses for the past day: 1040 personnel, 1 tank, 5 armored fighting vehicles, 29 artillery systems, 118 operational-tactical level UAVs, and 88 vehicles & fuel tanks. This report provides a comprehensive overview of the intensity and geographical distribution of military activity on May 18, including detailed enemy actions and reported Ukrainian successes in repelling attacks and inflicting losses. The high numbers across various categories underscore the ongoing high tempo of the conflict.
Appeal for Donations for FPV Drones for Ukrainian Military: STERNENKO is appealing for donations for "rusoriz" (a term often associated with FPV drones used against Russian forces). He states there are 118 unpaid requests for 4311 FPV drones and emphasizes the need for continued support. This highlights the continued strategic importance of FPV drones for Ukrainian forces and the reliance on public fundraising for their acquisition.
Discovery of Over 100 German Anti-Tank Mines in Kursk Oblast: ТАСС reports that over 100 German-made anti-tank mines were discovered in a village in Kursk Oblast. A video accompanies the report. This finding is presented by Russian sources and could be used to highlight the presence of Western military aid in Russian territory.
Summary of Overnight News (Ukrainian Perspective): РБК-Україна provides a summary of key overnight news. This includes the victory of the pro-European candidate in the Romanian presidential election, the candidates advancing to the second round of the Polish presidential elections, the Bloomberg report on Putin's confidence in capturing four oblasts, the diagnosis of aggressive prostate cancer in former US President Biden, and the discussion among leaders from the US, UK, Germany, France, and Italy on potential new sanctions against Russia ahead of the Trump-Putin conversation. This summary consolidates several significant political and international developments relevant to the conflict.
Summary of Combat Statistics (Ukrainian Perspective): Оперативний ЗСУ provides a summary of combat statistics for the previous day (May 18). This includes the high number of combat engagements on the Pokrovsk (65) and Novopavlivka (24) directions, the significant number of KABs dropped (124 + 19 on Kursk), the use of 2904 kamikaze drones, and 5134 shellings. It also reports on Ukrainian strikes against 5 areas of personnel/equipment concentration, 1 artillery piece, 2 command posts, and 1 other important target. This reinforces the intensity of the fighting and highlights key areas of activity and Ukrainian targeting efforts.
Elon Musk Supports Pavel Durov's Refusal to Block Romanian Conservative Channels: ТАСС reports that Elon Musk supported Pavel Durov's (founder of Telegram) refusal to block the channels of Romanian conservatives. This is a development related to social media platforms and content moderation, potentially relevant to information control and freedom of speech in a regional context.
Proposed Russian Law to Confiscate Income of "Foreign Agent" Artists for Military Support: ASTRA reports that a draft law is planned to be submitted to the State Duma that would allow for the confiscation of income earned by artists designated as "foreign agents" and direct it to assist Donbas and participants of the "special operation." This is an internal Russian legal and political development aimed at both suppressing dissent and generating funds for the military effort and occupied territories.
Russian Soldier Claims to Have Repelled Ukrainian Drone with Hand in Novoaleksandrovka: ТАСС shares a video and text of a Russian soldier, Ivan Polozin, claiming he repelled a Ukrainian drone with his hand in Novoaleksandrovka, saving his comrades. This is a specific combat claim presented by Russian sources, likely for propaganda purposes to highlight bravery and resilience.
WarGonzo Frontline Summary (May 19 Morning): WarGonzo provides a summary of the frontline situation as of the morning of May 19. Key claims include:
- Zaporizhzhia Front: Mainly positional battles with no significant changes in the line of contact.
- Donetsk Front: Russian forces are consolidating after liberating Bogatyr. Ukrainian forces are attempting counterattacks without success. Russian forces are developing an offensive towards Komar and have broken through to the outskirts of Zelenoye Pole and Novopol (lost during the Ukrainian counteroffensive) where assault operations have begun. Russian forces have also advanced north of Kotlyarovka.
- Chasov Yar Direction: No significant changes in the line of contact. Fighting continues in Chasov Yar and surroundings.
- Sumy Direction: Over the past day, Ukrainian forces attempted to break through into Kursk Oblast several times, using armored vehicles. These attempts were repelled in the areas of Tyotkino, Novy Put, and Krasnooktyabrsky. Over ten units of enemy equipment were reportedly destroyed. This report from a prominent Russian military blogger provides a perspective on claimed Russian advances and Ukrainian efforts on several key fronts.
Ukrainian Response to Putin's Confidence Claims: Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides a brief commentary in response to the Bloomberg report on Putin's confidence. He contrasts the initial goal of taking Kyiv in three days with the current aim of capturing four oblasts after eleven years of war, stating that Ukraine believes Russia will continue to be unsuccessful. This represents a Ukrainian perspective on Russia's stated goals and capabilities.
Russian Military Podcast Discussing Tetkino, F-16, Drone Detectors, and Negotiations: Fighterbomber shares a link to a podcast episode discussing several military topics. These include agreement with a Ukrainian commander regarding Tetkino, how a Ukrainian F-16 allegedly crashed, what a helicopter pilot does when a drone detector beeps, and the composition and position of the Russian negotiation group. This provides insight into Russian military discussions and perspectives on specific operational and tactical issues, as well as negotiation dynamics.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Rekodub, Novoaleksandrovka, Bogatyr, Komar, Zelenoye Pole, Novopol, Kotlyarovka, Chasov Yar, Bakhmut, Konstantinovka, Malynivka, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachensk, Zvirove, Kotlyarivka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Troitske, Oleksiyivka, Andriivka, Kotlyne, Zorya, Shevchenko Pershoho, Muravky, Popovoho Yaru, Kostiantynopil, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, Rivnopil): Intense ground combat continues. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub and have made advances north and south. WarGonzo reports Russian forces are consolidating after liberating Bogatyr, developing an offensive towards Komar, breaking through to the outskirts of Zelenoye Pole and Novopol, and advancing north of Kotlyarovka. Fighting continues in Chasov Yar and its surroundings. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 9 combat engagements on Kramatorsk, 11 attacks on Toretsk, 65 assaults/offensive actions on Pokrovsk, and 24 attacks on Novopavlivka. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the high number of engagements on the Pokrovsk (65) and Novopavlivka (24) directions. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub. ТАСС reports a Russian soldier claimed to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with his hand in Novoaleksandrovka. WarGonzo provides detailed reports on the Donetsk, Chasov Yar, and Novopavlivka directions. ТАСС reports that a large cache of NATO-style weapons and ammunition was discovered near Kurakhovo.
Kharkiv Oblast (Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Stroiivka, Kupiansk, Nova Kruhliakivka, Staryi Saltiv, Чугуївський район): Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity and ground assaults. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 6 assaults on Kharkiv and 2 attacks on Kupiansk. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports enemy strikes on 3 settlements, including Kupiansk and Чугуївський район, using 4 KABs and 14 "Geran-2" drones, causing civilian casualties and extensive damage to civilian and agricultural infrastructure. WarGonzo reports on the Sumy direction but mentions Ukrainian forces attempting to break into Kursk Oblast, which borders Kharkiv.
Sumy Oblast (Shostka community, Tyotkino, Novy Put): Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report six drone hits in the Shostka community, damaging infrastructure and injuring a civilian. WarGonzo reports on the Sumy direction, claiming Ukrainian forces attempted to break into Kursk Oblast several times from this direction, using armored vehicles. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 18 combat engagements on the Kursk direction.
Turkey (Istanbul): Continues to be a location for diplomatic discussions, although the timing and progress remain uncertain.
Russia (Khabarovsk Krai - Amur district, Moscow, Kursk Oblast - Sudzha, Rekodub, Bryansk Oblast, Belgorod Oblast - Shebekino, Crimea): Internal issues, including the health of political prisoners and efforts to shape historical narratives, continue to be reported. Military briefings highlight claimed successes and activities over the past week. Propaganda efforts are ongoing. Location of claimed Ukrainian drone attacks and discovery of mines. Полиция Хабаровского края reports two criminal cases for remote fraud in the Amur district. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow and the closure of the case against Morgenstern. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR. AV БогомаZ reports eight Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Два майора reports a Ukrainian drone attacked a bus in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, injuring the driver. ASTRA and ТАСС report 35 UAVs shot down over Russia and Crimea. ТАСС reports the discovery of over 100 German anti-tank mines in a village in Kursk Oblast. WarGonzo reports on the Sumy direction, claiming Ukrainian forces attempted to break into Kursk Oblast.
Romania: Location of recent presidential election. ASTRA reports the pro-European candidate won.
Libya (Tripoli): Рыбарь provides a summary of events in Black Africa, including clashes here.
Congo: Рыбарь provides a summary of events in Black Africa, including developments here.
Sudan (Darfur): Рыбарь provides a summary of events in Black Africa, including conflict here.
Ukraine (Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast, Vinnytsia Oblast, Poltava Oblast, Chernihiv Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Kherson Oblast - Odradokamyanka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Kryvyi Rih district): Affected by widespread Russian drone attacks and air raid alerts. Ground combat continues in eastern and southern regions. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing. Receiving military aid. КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) reports active air defense over Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a large number of enemy drones over Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts and provides detailed tracking across multiple oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on combat engagements and enemy attacks across multiple fronts, including air strikes on Odradokamyanka in Kherson Oblast and various locations in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. РБК-Україна reports on the Romanian and Polish elections, the Bloomberg report on Putin's confidence, Biden's health, and the discussion among Western leaders and Trump. Оперативний ЗСУ provides a summary of combat statistics and reports six drone hits in Sumy Oblast. РБК-Україна corroborates the Sumy report. STERNENKO is appealing for donations for FPV drones. РБК-Україна reports Abrams tanks from Australia arrived in Ukraine. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides a Ukrainian response to the Bloomberg report.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Huliaipole, Chorne, Novodarivka, Novoandriivka, Luk'yanivske, Novodanylivka): Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity and ground assaults. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports air strikes on Huliaipole, Chorne, Novodarivka, and Novoandriivka, 0 combat engagements on Huliaipole, and 2 enemy assaults on Orikhiv (near Luk'yanivske and Novodanylivka). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert. WarGonzo reports mainly positional battles with no significant changes in the line of contact on the Zaporizhzhia front.
Lyman direction (Tverdokhleboye, Kopanki, Ridkodub, Grekivka, Lipove, Torske, Karpivka, Olgivka, Zelenaya Dolina, Grigorivka): Intense ground combat continues. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 22 attacks on the Lyman direction. WarGonzo reports on the Lyman direction.
Siversk direction (Verkhnokamyanske, Bilohorivka): Intense ground combat continues. Генеральний штаб ЗSU reports 6 attacks on the Siversk direction.
Kramatorsk direction (Chasov Yar, Bila Hora, Kurdyumivka, Stupochky): Intense ground combat continues. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 9 combat engagements on the Kramatorsk direction. WarGonzo reports fighting continues in Chasov Yar and its surroundings.
Toretsk direction (Toretsk, Petrivka, Shcherbynivka, Ozaryanivka, Dyliivka, Druzhba): Intense ground combat continues. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 11 attacks on the Toretsk direction.
Pokrovsk direction (Malynivka, Myrolyubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Dachensk, Zvirove, Novooleksandrivka, Kotlyarivka, Novoserhiyivka, Udachne, Troitske, Oleksiyivka, Andriivka, Kotlyne, Zorya, Shevchenko Pershoho, Muravky, Popovoho Yaru): Intense ground combat continues. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 65 assaults/offensive actions on the Pokrovsk direction. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the high number of engagements here. WarGonzo reports Russian advances here, including near Novoaleksandrovka.
Novopavlivka direction (Kostiantynopil, Bahatyr, Shevchenko, Vilne Pole, Rivnopil): Intense ground combat continues. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 24 attacks on the Novopavlivka direction. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the high number of engagements here. WarGonzo reports on Russian consolidation after liberating Bogatyr (in this area).
Orikhiv direction (Luk'yanivske, Novodanylivka): Intense ground combat continues. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 2 enemy assaults on the Orikhiv direction. WarGonzo reports mainly positional battles on the Zaporizhzhia front (which includes this area).
Prydniprovskyi direction: Intense ground combat continues. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 1 attempted advance here.
Kursk direction: Intense ground combat continues, affected by Russian aviation, guided bombs, and artillery. Location of claimed Ukrainian attempts to break through and discovery of mines. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 18 combat engagements, 19 aviation strikes, 35 guided bombs, and 236 artillery shellings on the Kursk direction. WarGonzo reports Ukrainian attempts to break through into Kursk Oblast from the Sumy direction were repelled in the areas of Tyotkino, Novy Put, and Krasnooktyabrsky, with destruction of Ukrainian equipment. ТАСС reports the discovery of over 100 German anti-tank mines in a village in Kursk Oblast.
Australia: Location of confirmed shipment of Abrams tanks to Ukraine. РБК-Україна and STERNENKO report on this.
United States: Discussion among leaders and Trump regarding Ukraine and sanctions. Location of former President Biden's health issues. РБК-Україна reports on the discussion among leaders and Trump and Biden's health. ASTRA reports on Biden's health. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the Bloomberg article regarding Putin's confidence and implications for Trump talks. ASTRA reports on the discussion among European leaders and Trump.
Germany: Discussion among leaders and Trump regarding Ukraine and sanctions. Location of discovered mines in Kursk Oblast. РБК-Україна reports on the discussion among leaders and Trump. ASTRA reports on the discussion among European leaders and Trump. ТАСС reports the discovery of German-made mines in Kursk Oblast.
France: Discussion among leaders and Trump regarding Ukraine and sanctions. РБК-Україна reports on the discussion among leaders and Trump. ASTRA reports on the discussion among European leaders and Trump.
United Kingdom: Discussion among leaders and Trump regarding Ukraine and sanctions. РБК-Україна reports on the discussion among leaders and Trump. ASTRA reports on the discussion among European leaders and Trump.
Italy: Discussion among leaders and Trump regarding Ukraine and sanctions. РБК-Україна reports on the discussion among leaders and Trump. ASTRA reports on the discussion among European leaders and Trump.
Poland: Candidates for the second round of presidential elections are reported. РБК-Україна reports on this.
Crimea: Location of claimed downing of 35 Ukrainian UAVs. ASTRA and ТАСС report on this.
Bryansk Oblast (Russia): Location of claimed downing of eight Ukrainian UAVs. AV БогомаZ reports on this. ASTRA reports on this.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (Shebekino): Location of claimed downing of one Ukrainian UAV and a drone attack on a bus. Два майора reports on the bus attack in Shebekino. ASTRA reports on the downing of one UAV.
Kurakhovo (Donetsk Oblast): Location of discovered large cache of NATO-style weapons and ammunition. ТАСС reports on this.
Amur district (Khabarovsk Krai, Russia): Location of initiated criminal cases regarding remote fraud. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on this.
Novoaleksandrovka (Donetsk Oblast): Location where a Russian soldier claimed to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with his hand. ТАСС reports on this.
Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast), Boryspil (Kyiv Oblast), Pereyaslav (Kyiv Oblast), Smila (Cherkasy Oblast), Bilotserkivskyi district (Kyiv Oblast), Uman (Cherkasy Oblast), Fastiv (Kyiv Oblast), Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast), Nizhyn (Chernihiv Oblast): Locations of detailed drone tracking. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements in these areas.
Krasnooktyabrsky (Kursk Oblast, Russia), Novy Put (Sumy Oblast), Tyotkino (Sumy Oblast): Locations where Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted to break through into Kursk Oblast and were repelled. WarGonzo reports on this.
Sudzha (Kursk Oblast, Russia): Location for Russian information operations alleging Ukrainian "atrocities." Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" here.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Extremely high and widespread, with a large-scale attack ongoing across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, particularly targeting Kyiv and surrounding areas. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively tracking and engaging numerous drone groups. Russian sources are also using drones in ground combat operations. Ukraine is reportedly using drones to target Russian territory and occupied Crimea. КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about an ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack, stating there are a large number of enemy drones over Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts. They provide detailed information on drone groups across multiple oblasts, including Vinnytsia, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Zhytomyr. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, likely utilizing drones for reconnaissance and targeting. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, alleging Ukrainian use of a "Grad" MLRS installation. РБК-Україна shares the warning from the Ukrainian Air Force about the large number of Russian drones. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 2904 kamikaze drones used by the aggressor and 118 operational-tactical level UAVs lost by Russian forces over the past day. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the use of 2904 kamikaze drones. STERNENKO is appealing for donations for FPV drones. AV БогомаZ reports eight Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Два майора reports a Ukrainian drone attacked a bus in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA and ТАСС report 35 UAVs shot down over Russia and Crimea. ТАСС reports a Russian soldier claimed to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with his hand in Novoaleksandrovka. WarGonzo reports Ukrainian attempts to break through into Kursk Oblast using armored vehicles were repelled, implying the use of drones for reconnaissance or targeting. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports 14 "Geran-2" drones were used in strikes on Kharkiv Oblast. Fighterbomber discusses what a helicopter pilot does when a drone detector beeps.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaged in countering the large-scale Russian drone attack, with successful engagements reported directly over Kyiv and in Kyiv Oblast. Russian air defense forces are reportedly active in Russian border regions and occupied Crimea. КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones. РБК-Україна corroborates the reports of air defense working in Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about an ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack, highlighting the need for continued air defense efforts. РБК-Україна shares the warning from the Ukrainian Air Force about the large number of Russian drones. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 1167 anti-aircraft systems lost by Russian forces since the start of the conflict. AV БогомаZ reports eight Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by air defense. ASTRA and ТАСС report 35 UAVs shot down over Russia and Crimea by air defense. WarGonzo reports Ukrainian attempts to break through into Kursk Oblast were repelled, implying the use of air defense or other counter-UAV measures.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued extensive use by Russian forces on multiple fronts, including in border regions. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 124 guided aerial bombs dropped by the aggressor over the past day, and 35 guided bombs used on the Kursk direction. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the use of 124 KABs + 19 on Kursk. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports 4 KABs were used in strikes on Kharkiv Oblast.
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active in frontline and border areas, conducting strikes with guided aerial bombs and potentially other munitions. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 78 aviation strikes by the aggressor over the past day, including air strikes on various locations in Чернігів, Харків, Донецьк, Запоріжжя, and Херсон Oblasts. 19 aviation strikes were conducted on the Kursk direction. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports 4 KABs were used in strikes on Kharkiv Oblast. Fighterbomber discusses how a Ukrainian F-16 allegedly crashed and what a helicopter pilot does when a drone detector beeps.
Naval Activity: No new reports on naval engagements or carrier movements in the Black or Azov Seas. Reported Russian oil transshipment activities in the Mediterranean near Gibraltar continue. Russia anticipates new Ukrainian attempts to attack in the Black Sea direction, particularly targeting gas production platforms in Crimea and potentially involving USVs and sabotage groups. Ukraine reports inflicting losses on Russian boats in the Southern direction. Russia commemorates the anniversary of the Baltic Fleet. Belgium is providing Ukraine with unmanned maritime vessels. The US RQ-4B Global Hawk is conducting reconnaissance in the Black Sea. Denmark is providing Ukraine with unmanned maritime vessels as part of a new aid package. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 28 warships/boats and 1 submarine lost by Russian forces. As of 06:00 on May 19, 2025, no enemy warships or Kalibr missile carriers were detected in the Black or Azov Seas. It reports 3 enemy ships, including 1 Kalibr carrier with up to 8 missiles, are present in the Mediterranean Sea. It also reports on Kerch Strait passage traffic. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery fire from both sides. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 5134 shellings by the aggressor, including 116 from MLRS, over the past day. 236 artillery shellings were conducted on the Kursk direction. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights 5134 shellings and 116 MLRS shellings. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, alleging Ukrainian use of a "Grad" MLRS installation. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 28,009 artillery systems (+29) and 1387 MLRS lost by Russian forces since the start of the conflict.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Diplomatic efforts continue, with Russia preparing a document outlining its requirements for a ceasefire and the US linking progress to potential sanctions. Discussion among European leaders and Trump ahead of Putin call. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the Bloomberg article regarding Putin's confidence and its implications for Trump talks. ASTRA reports on the discussion among European leaders and Trump regarding a potential 30-day unconditional ceasefire proposed by Trump. РБК-Україна reports on the discussion among Western leaders and Trump and the Bloomberg report on Putin's confidence. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the Bloomberg assessment of Putin's confidence. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides a Ukrainian response to the Bloomberg report. Fighterbomber discusses the composition and position of the Russian negotiation group.
International Pressure: The US is linking progress in negotiations to potential further sanctions against Russia. Discussion among European leaders and Trump on potential new sanctions. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the Bloomberg article regarding Putin's confidence and its implications for Trump talks. ASTRA reports on the discussion among European leaders and Trump regarding potential sanctions if Russia is not serious about a ceasefire and peace talks. РБК-Україна reports on the discussion among Western leaders and Trump. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the Bloomberg assessment of Putin's confidence and potential new US sanctions. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides a Ukrainian response to the Bloomberg report.
Internal Russian Politics: Internal legal proceedings continue. Proposed law on increasing pensions for dependents. Proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow and the closure of the case against Morgenstern. ТАСС reports on the proposed law on pensions. ASTRA reports on the proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists. РБК-Україна reports on the Bloomberg report on Putin's confidence. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the Bloomberg assessment of Putin's confidence. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides a Ukrainian response to the Bloomberg report.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct diplomatic exchanges are anticipated regarding ceasefire conditions. Discussion among European leaders and Trump ahead of Putin call. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the Bloomberg article regarding Putin's confidence and its implications for Trump talks. ASTRA reports on the discussion among European leaders and Trump regarding a potential 30-day unconditional ceasefire proposed by Trump. РБК-Україна reports on the discussion among Western leaders and Trump and the Bloomberg report on Putin's confidence. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the Bloomberg assessment of Putin's confidence. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides a Ukrainian response to the Bloomberg report. Fighterbomber discusses the composition and position of the Russian negotiation group.
Romania Presidential Election: Outcome reported. ASTRA reports the pro-European candidate won. РБК-Україна reports on this.
Polish Presidential Election: Candidates for the second round are reported. РБК-Україна reports on this.
US Politics: Health of former President Biden reported. РБК-Україна reports on Biden's health. ASTRA reports on Biden's health.
Russia-US Relations: Planned conversation between Trump and Putin. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the Bloomberg article regarding Putin's confidence and its implications for Trump talks. ASTRA reports on the discussion among European leaders and Trump. РБК-Україна reports on the discussion among Western leaders and Trump and the Bloomberg report on Putin's confidence. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the Bloomberg assessment of Putin's confidence. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides a Ukrainian response to the Bloomberg report.
Black Africa Events: Summary provided by Russian military blogger. Рыбарь provides a summary of events in Black Africa.
Social Media and Information Control: Elon Musk supports Pavel Durov's refusal to block channels. Proposed Russian law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists. ТАСС reports on Elon Musk's support for Pavel Durov. ASTRA reports on the proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists.
Humanitarian Concerns (Kursk Oblast): Russian information operation alleging Ukrainian "atrocities" including shootings and shelling against civilians. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" here.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Internal legal proceedings continue. Criminal cases initiated for remote fraud in Khabarovsk Krai. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow and the closure of the case against Morgenstern. Полиция Хабаровского края reports two criminal cases for remote fraud.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces claim systematic destruction of Ukrainian strongholds and advances in Donetsk Oblast. Russian aviation is active in border regions. Russian forces are utilizing extensive aerial assets, particularly a large number of strike drones, across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. Russian forces claim downing a large number of Ukrainian UAVs and guided bombs. Russian forces are actively engaged in ground combat across multiple fronts, including making claimed advances. Russian soldier claims to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with hand. Discovery of foreign-made mines in Kursk Oblast. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on military activity across multiple fronts, including enemy aviation strikes, drone use, and shellings, and reports estimated Russian losses. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights combat statistics. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on Russian strikes in Kharkiv Oblast using KABs and drones. AV БогомаZ reports eight Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Два майора reports a Ukrainian drone attacked a bus in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA and ТАСС report 35 UAVs shot down over Russia and Crimea. ТАСС reports the discovery of over 100 German anti-tank mines in a village in Kursk Oblast. ТАСС reports a Russian soldier claimed to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with his hand in Novoaleksandrovka. WarGonzo provides detailed reports on the Donetsk, Chasov Yar, Sumy, and Novopavlivka directions, claiming Russian advances and repelled Ukrainian attacks. Fighterbomber discusses how a Ukrainian F-16 allegedly crashed and what a helicopter pilot does when a drone detector beeps.
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources continue to promote narratives of military success and criticize Ukrainian actions, including through the promotion of alleged Ukrainian "atrocities" in Kursk Oblast. Russian military bloggers provide frontline summaries and discuss military topics. Russian sources are highlighting the claimed effectiveness of their air defense and drone capabilities. ТАСС reports, citing Andrey Marochko, on Russian military actions, which serves as information operation. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide "evidence of the atrocities of the Kyiv regime in the Kursk Oblast," which is a clear and active information operation. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the Bloomberg article regarding Putin's confidence and its implications for Trump talks, framing it from a Russian perspective. Два майора reports on the Bloomberg article from a Russian perspective. ASTRA reports on the discussion among European leaders and Trump. Рыбарь provides a summary of events in Black Africa. ТАСС reports on Elon Musk's support for Pavel Durov. ASTRA reports on the proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists. ТАСС reports a Russian soldier claimed to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with his hand in Novoaleksandrovka, likely for propaganda. WarGonzo provides frontline summaries from a Russian perspective. Fighterbomber discusses military topics.
Casualties: Civilian casualties reported in Belgorod Oblast due to claimed Ukrainian drone attack. Claims of civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast within a Russian information operation. Два майора reports a Ukrainian drone attacked a bus in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, injuring the driver. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, including alleged shootings and shelling by Ukrainian forces resulting in deaths.
Judicial System: Legal proceedings against individuals are reported. ТАСС reports the arrest of Vladimir Smerkis in Moscow on fraud charges. ТАСС reports the closure of the case against Morgenstern. Полиция Хабаровского края reports two criminal cases for remote fraud.
Social Policy: Proposed law on increasing pensions for dependents. ТАСС reports on the proposed law on pensions.
Khabarovsk Krai (Amur district): Location of initiated criminal cases regarding remote fraud. Полиция Хабаровского края reports two criminal cases for remote fraud.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): International military aid continues, including the confirmed shipment of Abrams tanks from Australia. Fundraising for FPV drones is ongoing. Ukraine is actively engaged in defense and counter-drone operations. РБК-Україна reports Abrams tanks from Australia arrived in Ukraine. STERNENKO is appealing for donations for FPV drones. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on Ukrainian defense and counter-offensive actions. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights combat statistics and Ukrainian strikes. КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) reports active air defense. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports on ongoing drone attacks.
Military Support (Russia): Russian forces are actively engaged in ground combat and utilizing extensive aerial assets, artillery, and potentially MLRS, indicating ongoing military support for their operations. Proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on military activity across multiple fronts. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights combat statistics. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on Russian strikes in Kharkiv Oblast. WarGonzo provides frontline summaries claiming Russian advances and repelled Ukrainian attacks. ТАСС reports the discovery of over 100 German anti-tank mines in a village in Kursk Oblast, which could be presented as a justification for Russian military actions. ASTRA reports on the proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists.
Civilian Support (Ukraine): Civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure reported due to Russian strikes. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report six drone hits in the Shostka community, damaging infrastructure and injuring a civilian. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports civilian casualties and extensive damage to civilian and agricultural infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast due to Russian strikes.
Civilian Support (Russia): Civilian casualties reported in Belgorod Oblast due to claimed Ukrainian drone attack. Claims of civilian casualties in Kursk Oblast within a Russian information operation, potentially aimed at garnering support for the Russian military. Два майора reports a Ukrainian drone attacked a bus in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, injuring the driver. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, including alleged shootings and shelling by Ukrainian forces against civilians.
Support for Military Personnel (Russia): Proposed law on increasing pensions for dependents. Proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support. ТАСС reports on the proposed law on pensions. ASTRA reports on the proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists. ТАСС reports a Russian soldier claimed to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with his hand in Novoaleksandrovka, likely for propaganda to highlight bravery and resilience.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukraine: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults and a large-scale drone attack across multiple fronts and oblasts. Engaging Russian aerial targets with air defense systems, including over Kyiv. Reports of Ukrainian "atrocities" and military equipment use in Kursk Oblast are part of Russian information operations and should be viewed critically. Utilizing FPV drones and seeking continued funding for them. Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian aerial and artillery attacks. Receiving Abrams tanks from Australia. (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO) КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about an ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack across numerous oblasts, highlighting the need for continued air defense efforts. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on combat engagements and Ukrainian defense/counter-offensive actions across multiple fronts, and reports estimated Russian losses (including significant UAV losses). Оперативний ЗСУ highlights combat statistics. STERNENKO is appealing for donations for FPV drones. AV БогомаZ reports eight Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. Два майора reports a Ukrainian drone attacked a bus in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA and ТАСС report 35 UAVs shot down over Russia and Crimea. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports civilian casualties and damage in Kharkiv Oblast due to Russian strikes using KABs and drones. WarGonzo reports Ukrainian attempts to break through into Kursk Oblast using armored vehicles were repelled. Fighterbomber discusses how a Ukrainian F-16 allegedly crashed.
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults, claiming tactical successes, and utilizing extensive aerial assets, particularly a large number of strike drones ("Shaheds" and "Geran-2"), across numerous Ukrainian oblasts. Utilizing artillery and potentially MLRS and aviation in border regions. Engaging in extensive information operations and propaganda, including promoting a narrative of Ukrainian "atrocities" and highlighting the claimed effectiveness of their military personnel and equipment. Claiming downing a large number of Ukrainian UAVs and guided bombs. Actively engaged in ground combat across multiple fronts, including making claimed advances. Utilizing and developing drone technology. Russian soldier claims to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with hand. Discovery of foreign-made mines in Kursk Oblast, presented by Russian sources. ТАСС reports Russian forces are systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds near Rekodub, DNR, and have made advances north and south. КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) reports active air defense in Kyiv Oblast and over Kyiv against incoming drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine issues a warning about an ongoing large-scale enemy strike UAV attack across numerous oblasts. Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports the conclusion of the air raid alert. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on combat engagements and enemy actions across multiple fronts, including aviation strikes, drone use, and shellings, and reports estimated Russian losses. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights combat statistics. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on Russian strikes in Kharkiv Oblast using 4 KABs and 14 "Geran-2" drones, causing civilian casualties and damage. AV БогомаZ reports eight Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by air defense. Два майора reports a Ukrainian drone attacked a bus in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, injuring the driver. ASTRA and ТАСС report 35 UAVs shot down over Russia and Crimea. ТАСС reports the discovery of over 100 German anti-tank mines in a village in Kursk Oblast. ТАСС reports a Russian soldier claimed to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with his hand in Novoaleksandrovka. WarGonzo provides detailed reports on the Donetsk, Chasov Yar, Sumy, and Novopavlivka directions, claiming Russian advances and repelled Ukrainian attacks, including destruction of over ten units of Ukrainian equipment on the Sumy direction. Fighterbomber discusses how a Ukrainian F-16 allegedly crashed and what a helicopter pilot does when a drone detector beeps, providing insights into Russian perspectives on air and drone warfare.
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of drones by both sides, with Russia launching a large-scale strike involving "Shaheds" and "Geran-2" and potentially "mopeds." Ukrainian air defense is actively countering these. Russian forces are using artillery, MLRS, and aviation, including guided aerial bombs (KABs). Russia is claiming to be systematically destroying Ukrainian strongholds and making advances. Ukrainian forces are using FPV drones and potentially armored vehicles in counter-offensive actions (reported by Russian sources). Discovery of foreign-made mines in Kursk Oblast, presented by Russian sources. Claimed instance of a Russian soldier repelling a Ukrainian drone with hand. Discussion among Russian military bloggers on F-16 crashes and drone detection for helicopters. КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація) reports active air defense against incoming drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a large number of enemy strike UAVs over numerous oblasts, including "Shaheds." Николаевский Ванёк provides granular detail on numerous "moped" (drone) movements across multiple oblasts. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports on enemy aviation strikes, drone use, and shellings, including 124 KABs and 2904 kamikaze drones used by the aggressor over the past day. Reports Ukrainian forces hit 5 areas of personnel/equipment concentration, 1 artillery piece, 2 command posts, and 1 other important target. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the use of 124 KABs + 19 on Kursk and 2904 kamikaze drones. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on Russian strikes in Kharkiv Oblast using 4 KABs and 14 "Geran-2" drones. AV БогомаZ reports eight Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast by air defense. Два майора reports a Ukrainian drone attacked a bus in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA and ТАСС report 35 UAVs shot down over Russia and Crimea. ТАСС reports the discovery of over 100 German anti-tank mines in a village in Kursk Oblast. ТАСС reports a Russian soldier claimed to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with his hand in Novoaleksandrovka. WarGonzo reports Ukrainian attempts to break through into Kursk Oblast using armored vehicles were repelled, with destruction of over ten units of Ukrainian equipment. Fighterbomber discusses how a Ukrainian F-16 allegedly crashed and what a helicopter pilot does when a drone detector beeps. РБК-Україна reports Abrams tanks from Australia arrived in Ukraine. STERNENKO is appealing for donations for FPV drones. ТАСС reports that a large cache of NATO-style weapons and ammunition was discovered near Kurakhovo.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The large-scale and widespread Russian drone attack across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, including Kyiv and Cherkasy, with active air defense operations over the capital, is a significant strategic event. It demonstrates Russia's continued ability to launch extensive aerial assaults aimed at pressuring Ukrainian defenses, targeting infrastructure, and potentially impacting civilian morale across a broad geographical area. The detailed tracking of drone groups across multiple oblasts highlights the complexity of countering these attacks and underscores the ongoing need for robust and layered air defense systems across Ukraine. The use of a large number of kamikaze drones further emphasizes this strategic approach. КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), РБК-Україна, Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and Николаевский Ванёк all providing information on the scale and trajectories of this drone attack highlight its strategic importance. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reporting the conclusion of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia provides a localized strategic update, indicating that the aerial threat is not uniform across the country at all times. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports 2904 kamikaze drones used by the aggressor over the past day, highlighting the scale of Russian drone warfare. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the use of 2904 kamikaze drones. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports 14 "Geran-2" drones were used in strikes on Kharkiv Oblast, indicating the continued use of specific drone types.
Putin's reported confidence in capturing four oblasts by the end of the year, as reported by Bloomberg and widely disseminated by both Ukrainian and Russian sources, is a highly significant strategic assessment. If this accurately reflects the Kremlin's thinking, it signals a clear and ambitious strategic objective and suggests that Russia is prepared for a protracted conflict to achieve these goals. This confidence is reportedly influencing Russia's stance in diplomatic discussions and making them less inclined towards significant concessions. The contrasting views from European officials and some Russian military personnel, as reported by Bloomberg, highlight differing assessments of Russia's capabilities and the challenges posed by Ukrainian defenses, particularly drones. РБК-Україна, Два майора, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Оперативний ЗСУ, and Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 all reporting on this indicates its high strategic relevance. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦's response provides a Ukrainian counter-perspective on the feasibility of this goal.
The continued intense ground combat and claimed Russian advances on multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast (Rekodub, Novoaleksandrovka, Bogatyr, Komar, Zelenoye Pole, Novopol, Kotlyarovka), underscore Russia's strategic objective of gaining ground and degrading Ukrainian defenses. The high number of combat engagements across various directions reported by the Ukrainian General Staff (175 overall, with 65 on Pokrovsk, 24 on Novopavlivka, 22 on Lyman, 18 on Kursk) highlights the widespread intensity of the conflict. Russian claims of liberating settlements and advancing, if confirmed, represent tactical gains with potential strategic implications for controlling key routes and advancing towards larger objectives. Ukrainian defense and counter-offensive actions reported by the General Staff are strategically crucial for preventing Russian breakthroughs and inflicting losses. ТАСС reporting Russian advances near Rekodub and a Russian soldier's claim in Novoaleksandrovka are part of the Russian strategic narrative. WarGonzo's frontline summary provides a Russian perspective on claimed advances and Ukrainian counter-efforts on multiple key fronts. Генеральний штаб ЗСУ provides a comprehensive overview of combat engagements and enemy actions by direction, offering a strategic picture of where the most intense fighting is occurring. Оперативний ЗСУ highlights the high number of engagements on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, indicating these as key strategic battlegrounds.
Ongoing diplomatic discussions, including the planned Trump-Putin conversation and the high-level discussions among European leaders and Trump, highlight the continued strategic efforts to leverage international support and diplomatic channels to influence the conflict. The reports on potential new US and European sanctions, linked to progress in negotiations, underscore the continued use of economic pressure as a strategic tool. The differing positions and expectations for the Trump-Putin call, as reported by various sources, highlight the challenges and uncertainties surrounding potential diplomatic breakthroughs. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on the Bloomberg article regarding Putin's confidence and its implications for Trump talks. ASTRA reports on the discussion among European leaders and Trump regarding a potential ceasefire and sanctions. РБК-Україна reports on the discussion among Western leaders and Trump and the Bloomberg report on Putin's confidence. Оперативний ЗСУ reports on the Bloomberg assessment of Putin's confidence. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 provides a Ukrainian response to the Bloomberg report. Fighterbomber discusses the composition and position of the Russian negotiation group.
The reports of continued Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian territory, including the attack on a bus in Shebekino (Belgorod Oblast) and the claimed downing of numerous UAVs over Bryansk and Belgorod Oblasts and Crimea, are strategically significant. These actions demonstrate Ukraine's capability to strike targets within Russia and occupied territories, creating pressure on border regions and potentially disrupting logistics or morale. Russia's claims of downing a large number of these drones highlight their efforts to counter this strategic capability. Два майора reports on the bus attack in Shebekino. AV БогомаZ reports eight Ukrainian UAVs destroyed over Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA and ТАСС report 35 UAVs shot down over Russia and Crimea. WarGonzo reports Ukrainian attempts to break through into Kursk Oblast using armored vehicles were repelled, implying activity in Russian border regions. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on Russian strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, bordering Russia. ТАСС reports the discovery of over 100 German anti-tank mines in a village in Kursk Oblast, suggesting Ukrainian activity in this Russian border region.
The confirmed shipment of Australian Abrams tanks to Ukraine is a tangible strategic development increasing Ukraine's heavy armor capabilities. This demonstrates continued international military support and provides Ukraine with additional assets for potential offensive or defensive operations. РБК-Україна and STERNENKO report on this.
Russian information operations, including the dissemination of claimed battlefield successes (liberation of settlements, advances), showcasing claimed acts of bravery by soldiers (repelling a drone with hand), and promoting alleged Ukrainian "atrocities" (Kursk Oblast claims), are strategically aimed at shaping narratives, influencing public opinion (both domestic and international), and undermining support for Ukraine. The claims of downing a large number of Ukrainian UAVs and guided bombs also serve this purpose. The reports on legal proceedings and social policies can also be used within the internal information space. ТАСС reporting Russian advances near Rekodub and a Russian soldier's claim in Novoaleksandrovka are part of the Russian strategic narrative. Colonelcassad shares a video and text claiming to provide evidence of Ukrainian "atrocities" in the Sudzha area of Kursk Oblast, which is a clear and active information operation. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and Два майора report on the Bloomberg article from a Russian perspective, framing it to support their narrative. ASTRA reports on the discussion among European leaders and Trump, which can be interpreted by Russian sources to highlight Western diplomatic efforts. Рыбарь provides a summary of events in Black Africa, offering a Russian perspective on other global conflicts. ТАСС reports on Elon Musk's support for Pavel Durov. ASTRA reports on the proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists. ТАСС reports a Russian soldier claimed to have repelled a Ukrainian drone with his hand in Novoaleksandrovka, likely for propaganda. WarGonzo provides frontline summaries from a Russian perspective. Fighterbomber discusses military topics, likely for an internal Russian audience. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, reports on Russian strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, highlighting the impact on civilians and infrastructure, which is part of the Ukrainian narrative.
The report on the Romanian presidential election outcome, with a pro-European candidate winning, is strategically relevant given Romania's shared border with Ukraine and its position within NATO and the EU. This outcome suggests the continuation of a stable and supportive neighbor for Ukraine. ASTRA and РБК-Україна report on this.
The report on the candidates for the second round of the Polish presidential election is also strategically relevant given Poland's significant role as a key neighbor and supporter of Ukraine. The outcome of this election will influence future Polish policy regarding the conflict. РБК-Україна reports on this.
The diagnosis of aggressive prostate cancer in former US President Joe Biden is a significant development that could have strategic implications for US foreign policy and continuity of leadership, particularly in the context of the upcoming US presidential election. РБК-Україна and ASTRA report on this.
The discovery of a large cache of NATO-style weapons and ammunition near Kurakhovo, as reported by TASS, can be used by Russia for propaganda to highlight the flow of Western weapons to Ukraine and justify their actions. ТАСС reports on this.
The proposed Russian law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists for military support and the proposed law on increasing pensions for dependents highlight internal Russian strategic considerations. These measures aim to both suppress dissent and generate resources for the military effort and support for military personnel and their families, which are important factors in sustaining the conflict. ASTRA reports on the proposed law to confiscate income of "foreign agent" artists. ТАСС reports on the proposed law on pensions.
The initiated criminal cases for remote fraud in Khabarovsk Krai highlight domestic security issues within Russia, which can have indirect strategic implications for public trust and resource security. Полиция Хабаровского края reports on this.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report