Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 18, 2025, 19:03 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational landscape remains characterized by intense ground combat, with significant activity reported in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, widespread Russian aerial attacks utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs), and ongoing diplomatic and political maneuvering influenced by conflicting military and political signals. Recent updates confirm continued heavy fighting and strategic claims in various areas. Russian sources claim advances on the Dzerzhynsk and Konstantinovka directions, including entering the village of Romanovka, and the "liberation" of Богатырь on the South-Donetsk direction. Ukraine reports successfully targeting Russian logistics on the Kurakhivka direction and an alleged airstrike on a Russian gathering point in Nova Kakhovka. Mine warfare continues to be a challenge, with reports detailing Russian demining operations and Ukrainian counter-mine tactics. Russia is reportedly planning a "training and combat" launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) RS-24 "Yars" on the night of May 19th for "demonstrative pressure and intimidation," according to Ukrainian intelligence. Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has rejected claims of Russian interference in Romanian elections. A terrorist attack in Mali, where militants used disguises to attack a gendarmerie base, is being correlated with similar tactics in Russia and is being used to advocate for stricter measures regarding religious attire. Russian military bloggers are promoting a new serial based on real events in Donbas since 2014, highlighting a push for "patriotic art" and portraying the conflict.

Diplomatic activities, particularly concerning potential negotiations in Istanbul, remain a focal point, interwoven with international interactions involving the US, the Vatican, and various European nations. Discussions regarding potential future actions of former US President Trump and coordinated responses from European leaders continue to influence the diplomatic backdrop. Conflicting reports and narratives surrounding Ukraine's readiness for dialogue and Russia's conditions for a ceasefire persist. Statements from Hungarian and other European officials highlight existing political tensions within the EU and NATO regarding support for Ukraine. A significant maritime incident involving the Russian detention of a Liberian-flagged oil tanker that left an Estonian port introduces a new element of regional tension. Allegations of French and Russian interference in Romanian elections are also being reported and debated, highlighting the ongoing information warfare. The recent Romanian presidential election results, showing a pro-European candidate leading in exit polls, are relevant in this context, although final results are still being tallied. Ukrainian officials are expressing concern about a planned conversation between Putin and Trump, fearing a potential agreement unfavorable to Ukraine. Hamas is reportedly willing to release some hostages in exchange for a ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners, according to CNN.

Internal Russian dynamics include reported casualties among military personnel (including a television presenter and decorated scout-sniper), continued reliance on public support for military equipment, information operations aimed at shaping narratives and promoting military capabilities, and potential internal political/legal developments. Reports on military training in the rear areas highlight efforts to improve combat skills. Internal Ukrainian issues related to mobilization and fundraising initiatives are also being reported. The Israeli ground operation in Gaza continues to be a notable external development. A human rights activist in occupied Donetsk has been fined for "discrediting the Russian army" through critical comments about the military and mobilization. A Russian military blogger is reiterating calls for donations for drones for units on the Kursk direction. Political tensions between Hungary and Ukraine, and Russian information operations exploiting these tensions, are highlighted. Ukraine reports a young mother was killed and her 4-year-old son injured in a Russian drone strike in Kyiv Oblast.

Recent updates underscore the persistence of intense fighting and highlight new tactical and strategic considerations. Mine warfare remains a significant challenge, with reports of Russian demining operations facing Ukrainian drone and artillery disruption. The ongoing debate surrounding peace negotiations and the US plan for an immediate ceasefire continues, with Russia allegedly indicating readiness for dialogue in various formats, but with conditions. Diplomatic maneuvering involving key European leaders and potential US sanctions against Russia, contingent on future US-Russia discussions, indicates the complex international dimension of the conflict. Claims of Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast, specifically in the Velykonovosilka and Pokrovsk directions, indicate continued Russian pressure in these key areas. Information operations remain a core component of the conflict, with both sides utilizing media and social media to promote their narratives, including allegations of foreign interference in elections and showcasing tactical successes or highlighting enemy losses. Fundraising efforts for military equipment continue, indicating ongoing resource needs. Internal Ukrainian issues related to mobilization are also being reported. A significant maritime incident involving the Russian detention of a Liberian-flagged oil tanker that left an Estonian port introduces a new element of regional tension and highlights potential implications for maritime security and sanctions enforcement. Russian sources are now claiming advances on the Dzerzhynsk and Konstantinovka directions, and the liberation of Богатырь. Ukraine is reporting successful strikes on Russian logistics and troop concentrations. The results of the Romanian presidential election are now being reported, though contested by one candidate. Russia is also conducting military training in rear areas. Reports of mass blocking of Russian PlayStation accounts due to sanctions and internal incidents in Russia are also emerging.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

• Planned Russian ICBM Launch: STERNENKO reports, citing Ukrainian intelligence (ГУР), that Russia plans a "training and combat" launch of the RS-24 "Yars" intercontinental ballistic missile on the night of May 19th. This is presented as a move to intimidate Ukraine, the EU, and NATO, with the missile carrying a training warhead and having a range exceeding 10,000 km. This is a significant potential escalation in signaling and strategic deterrence. РБК-Україна provides additional commentary and analysis on this planned launch, discussing potential motivations.
• Russian Rejection of Romanian Election Interference Claims: ТАСС reports that Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, rejected any insinuation of Russian interference in the Romanian elections. This is a direct response to allegations of Russian information operations.
• Terrorist Tactics and Religious Attire: Рыбарь reports on a terrorist attack in Mali where militants used female disguises (niqabs) to infiltrate and attack a gendarmerie base. The report correlates this tactic with similar incidents in Russia and argues that this attire is increasingly used by radical Islamists, advocating for appropriate responses. This is a report from a Russian source linking a foreign event to a domestic security concern, potentially influencing internal Russian policy discussions.
• Russian Information Operation on Donbas Serial: WarGonzo is promoting a new serial based on real events in Donbas since 2014, titled "Ten Stories about Love and Death." This highlights efforts to create "patriotic art" and shape the narrative around the conflict for a Russian audience.
• Claimed Russian "Liberation" of Bogatyr (Donetsk Oblast) - Reiterated and Amplified: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterates the claim that Russian forces have liberated the village of Богатырь on the South-Donetsk direction after prolonged heavy fighting. He also reiterates claims of advances south and west of Отрадное and ongoing work against Ukrainian groups in Otradnoe, and the destruction of 7 Ukrainian vehicles in rear areas. This reinforces the previous claim and adds detail about ongoing tactical actions. Два майора and Воин DV also publish similar messages with the same historical context, introducing a new rubric "Returned Lands," further amplifying and framing this claimed territorial gain.
• Ukrainian Targeting of Russian Logistics (Kurakhivka Direction) - Visual Evidence: STERNENKO shares a video appearing to show a Ukrainian drone attacking a vehicle on the Kurakhivka direction, causing it to crash after being hit. The caption mentions working on a "sanitary zone and logistics within it." This provides visual evidence of successful Ukrainian targeting of Russian logistical assets in a key area.
• Ukrainian Casualty in Kyiv Oblast Drone Strike: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that a young mother was killed and her 4-year-old son injured in a Russian drone strike on her house in Obukhiv, Kyiv Oblast. The attack is attributed to "shahedas" (Shahed drones). This is a report of civilian casualties and damage in a region previously affected by drone activity.
• Romanian Election Results Update: РБК-Україна provides an update on the Romanian election results after 46% of votes were counted, showing a minimal lead for Nicușor Dan (50.20%) over George Simion (49.80%). This indicates a very close race and potential for a contested outcome. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also report on these updated results, emphasizing the close margin and the political implications. РБК-Україна reports that George Simion has declared victory despite the exit poll data, indicating a contested result. Colonelcassad comments on Simion's claim and the potential response from "globalists," framing it within a narrative of external interference in Romanian politics.
• Concerns in Kyiv about Trump-Putin Conversation: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports, citing The Washington Post, that Ukraine is anxiously awaiting the planned conversation between Putin and Trump, fearing they will be presented with an unacceptable "fait accompli." The article also notes that Trump intends to discuss ending hostilities, but Kyiv and Moscow remain far apart on terms. РБК-Україна also reports on this concern, highlighting President Zelenskyy's meeting with US officials in Rome on this topic. This indicates strategic anxiety in Ukraine regarding high-level US-Russia diplomatic engagement.
• Hamas Willingness to Release Hostages: РБК-Україна reports, citing CNN, that Hamas is willing to release 7 to 9 hostages in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire and the release of 300 Palestinian prisoners. This is a development in the external conflict in Gaza with potential humanitarian and diplomatic implications.
• Russian Military Blogger Commentary on Romanian Election Interference and Telegram Censorship: Colonelcassad provides commentary on the alleged French interference in Romanian elections and Telegram's founder Pavel Durov's statement about a "Western European government" asking him to block channels. Colonelcassad frames these events within a narrative of Western hypocrisy and attempts to manipulate information. ASTRA also reports on Durov's statement and the French MFA's response. НгП раZVедка comments on the recent news about alleged French interference in the Romanian elections and Telegram's founder Pavel Durov's statement about a "Western European government" asking him to block channels.
• Ukrainian Drone Attack Visual Evidence (Kurakhivka Direction) - Wider Scope: Оперативний ЗСУ shares the same video of a Ukrainian drone attacking a vehicle on the Kurakhivka direction as STERNENKO, with a more general caption ("Brutal? Maybe. Deserved? Definitely"). This confirms the event and its location.
• Ukrainian Military Unit Activity (South of Bohdanivka): ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 shares a video claiming the 35th Marine Brigade is destroying Russian groups south of Богданівка. This indicates Ukrainian military activity and claimed success in this specific area.
• Russian Information Operation on Romanian Election Interference: ASTRA reports that the Romanian Foreign Ministry has stated there are signs of Russian interference in the presidential elections. This confirms the allegations and highlights the ongoing information battle.
• Russian Military Training in Rear Areas: MoD Russia shares a video showing servicemen of a tank regiment improving skills in the rear area of the special military operation. This training includes various combat skills, indicating ongoing efforts to improve personnel readiness and military capabilities.
• Mass Blocking of Russian PlayStation Accounts: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Sony has begun mass blocking PlayStation accounts for Russian users without warning, citing media reports. This action is linked to previous EU sanctions and Russian users attempting to circumvent restrictions. ASTRA reports on this as well. This highlights the continued impact of sanctions on Russian civilians and may contribute to domestic discontent.
• Internal Incident in Vladimir, Russia (Additional Details): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports a violent incident in Vladimir where a man of Central Asian origin allegedly attacked a doctor with a knife during a clinic visit. The report links the motive to a previous medical examination of the attacker's wife who wore a niqab. This highlights potential internal social and ethnic tensions within Russia, although it is not directly related to military operations in Ukraine. A previous update from the same source provided fewer details.
• Israeli Ground Operation in Gaza (Additional Details): Рыбарь provides further details on the Israeli ground operation in the Gaza Strip, named "Chariots of Gideon." The report states that five divisions are planned for deployment, Israel gave Hamas a deadline to disband, initial strikes hit over 670 targets, and there is unconfirmed information about the possible liquidation of a Hamas military leader. It also notes that Israel plans to occupy only specific areas and anticipates continued guerrilla warfare. This provides a more detailed operational picture of a significant external conflict.
• Ukrainian Commemoration and Diplomatic Efforts: Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, and Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА share similar messages commemorating victims of political repression and linking it to current diplomatic efforts to end Russian aggression, return prisoners, and guarantee peace. They emphasize Ukrainian independence and sovereignty.
• Russian Detention of Liberian-Flagged Tanker (Additional Details): НгП раZVедка provides further details on the Russian detention of the Liberian-flagged tanker "Green Admire" that left the Estonian port of Sillamäe. The commentary discusses the vessel's technicalities, cargo (shale oil), flag state (Liberia), and Greek ownership, linking the incident to perceived Estonian actions. This provides more specific details and frames the incident from a Russian perspective.
• Claimed Russian Gains on Dzerzhynsk Direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims that Russian forces have cleared the area from Druzhba up to the section north of Krymske on the Dzerzhynsk direction.
• Claimed Russian Gains on Konstantinovka Direction: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims that Russian forces have advanced 1.5 km from the southeast side of Romanovka and entered the village on the Konstantinovka direction. They also claim to have cleared a forest belt west of Pravdivka and are storming the village while repelling Ukrainian counterattacks and identifying drone launch points.
• Russian Military Blogger Commentary on Negotiations and Territory: Kotsnews shares a Telegram poll about potential Russian concessions in negotiations, including the option of not taking Sumy and Kharkiv regions for now. This provides insight into a segment of Russian public opinion and potential propaganda efforts related to negotiation leverage and territorial claims.
• Russian Military Blogger Commentary on Potential Putin-Trump "Carve-up" of Ukraine: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares commentary from a Sky News analyst suggesting that peace talks could lead to a division of Ukraine between Putin and Trump.
• Eduard Basurin's Commentary on Istanbul Negotiations: Басурин о главном shares commentary from Eduard Basurin on the Istanbul negotiations. He states the Russian position is the full withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the claimed territories of the "DNR," "LNR," Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts based on their administrative borders before a ceasefire. He emphasizes Russia is negotiating from a "position of strength."
• Colonelcassad Shares Graphic Video and Commentary: Colonelcassad shares a graphic video claiming to show a "neo-Nazi from Kraken" who lost a leg and applied a tourniquet incorrectly. He uses this to comment on alleged poor medical training within Ukrainian forces. He also shares a video allegedly showing hand-to-hand combat on the islands in the Dnipro river, resulting in the capture of a Ukrainian soldier by a Russian marine.
• Death of Yakut Television Presenter in Ukraine: ASTRA reports the death of Aleksey Semenov, a Yakut television presenter who volunteered to fight in Ukraine.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.