Sitrep 2025-05-17 19:05:18

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 17, 2025, 19:00 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be characterized by intense ground combat on multiple fronts, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine, and a significant, widespread Russian aerial offensive utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs). Drone activity persists across numerous Ukrainian oblasts with a predominantly westward trajectory. Diplomatic efforts surrounding potential Istanbul negotiations and broader peace initiatives remain dynamic, with conflicting signals and ongoing discussions. Ukraine reports inflicting significant losses on Russian forces and highlights ongoing defensive actions and the effective use of drone technology. Russia continues to assert tactical gains, reports successful engagements and equipment destruction, and engages in extensive information operations. Internal Russian issues, including military personnel support, legal proceedings, infrastructure problems, and social initiatives, are also reported. A new development involves US sanctions impacting the International Criminal Court, a move with significant international legal and political ramifications.

Significant new updates since the previous report include:

Confirmation of upcoming Putin-Trump Phone Conversation: Alex Parker Returns, Новости Москвы, Colonelcassad, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirm that a phone conversation between Russian President Putin and Donald Trump is being prepared and is expected to take place on May 19th. This indicates continued high-level contact between the US and Russia and potential discussions related to the conflict.
Russian Claims of Modified Aircraft for Counter-Drone Operations: Два майора reports on a claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations. The report describes the aircraft's claimed capabilities, including a radar and a 12-gauge shotgun as armament, and includes images showing the modified aircraft and cockpit display with a tank icon. While presented with some humor and skepticism by the author regarding the effectiveness of the shotgun, it highlights Russian efforts to adapt existing platforms and develop new tactics to counter Ukrainian drone activity. This is presented as an experimental model.
Russian Military Blogger Highlights Russian Casualties in "Suicidal" Assault: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a photo and video with commentary from a small Russian Z-channel author expressing outrage and describing a "suicidal" assault by a group of Russian assault troops on motorcycles with flags. The commentary claims that Ukrainian defenders targeted them with mortars, cluster munitions, and drones, and that none survived. This report from a Russian source provides a candid and critical view of claimed ineffective Russian tactics and significant casualties.
Confirmation of US State Department Account of Rubio-Lavrov Call: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a readout from the US State Department confirming that Secretary Rubio discussed a US-proposed peace plan and called for an immediate ceasefire during a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on May 17th. This contradicts the Russian account and highlights differing diplomatic narratives.
Ukrainian Commander Claims Significant Russian Equipment Losses Since Start of Year: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares reports citing Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, stating that Ukrainian forces have destroyed over 1,000 Russian tanks (1,159) and over 2,500 armored combat vehicles (2,510) since the beginning of the year. This is a significant claim of Russian equipment losses and highlights the intensity of the fighting and the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces in destroying Russian armor. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides a breakdown of tank and armored vehicle losses specifically in the "Khortytsia" operational zone.
German-American Cooperation on Missile Production for Ukraine/Europe: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a plan by the German company Rheinmetall and the American Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS missiles (for HIMARS and MLRS) and Patriot PAC-3 missiles in Europe through a joint venture where Rheinmetall would hold 60% of the shares. This indicates a significant strategic effort by Western partners to increase production of key missile systems for Ukraine and European defense, underscoring long-term military support and adaptation to the conflict's demands.
Russian Military Blogger Shares Video Framing Ukrainian Appeal to Putin: Басурин о главном shares a video with the caption "Plea from Ukraine. Vladimir Vladimirovich, people are asking.... and waiting." The video is not described, but the caption suggests it contains content portraying Ukrainians appealing to Putin, likely for an end to the conflict or other assistance, which is a form of Russian information operation to portray themselves as potential saviors or that there is internal dissent in Ukraine.
French Military Exercises Focusing on Amphibious Operations and Drones: Два майора reports on two large-scale French military exercises, "Polaris-2025" and "Kraken-2025," with international participation, focusing on amphibious assault operations with the involvement of naval and special forces, helicopters, and various types of drones. This highlights French military modernization and adaptation to modern warfare, including the increasing role of drones in amphibious operations, and their cooperation with international partners.
Ukrainian Official Comments on Damage to Kursk Oblast Agriculture: Оперативний ЗСУ shares information attributed to Russian acting governor Khinshtein claiming over 160 agricultural enterprises in Kursk Oblast have been affected by Ukrainian attacks, with damages estimated at 90 billion rubles. The caption sarcastically attributes the damage to "Putin," likely referencing the initiation of the conflict. This highlights the economic impact of Ukrainian cross-border actions and a Ukrainian narrative attributing responsibility for the conflict's consequences to the Russian leadership.
Ukrainian Public Opinion on Negotiations and Truce: РБК-Україна shares results of a "Rating" group poll indicating that 74% of Ukrainians support a 30-day unconditional ceasefire initiative, despite only a quarter believing the Istanbul talks will bring peace. This highlights a strong public desire for de-escalation while maintaining skepticism about the effectiveness of the current negotiation format. Ukrainians believe Ukraine should continue to demonstrate openness to negotiations.
Alleged Internal Conflict within Ukrainian Command: Рыбарь reports, citing political analyst Mikhail Pavliv, on an alleged conflict between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Defense Minister Rustem Umierov regarding the composition and instruction of the Ukrainian delegation for Istanbul talks, claiming the Americans asserted control and bypassed Zelenskyy through Andriy Yermak. This report, from a Russian source, frames the situation as a conflict of interests between different external influences (US and UK) on Ukrainian leadership and suggests potential disruptions to diplomatic efforts.
Russian Military Accident in Annexed Crimea: ASTRA reports a traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck and a civilian car, resulting in injuries to the 18-year-old driver of the civilian vehicle. This highlights potential operational safety issues and the impact of military presence on civilian life in occupied territories.
Dmitry Medvedev's Statement on Negotiations: Alex Parker Returns and Colonelcassad share a tweet from Dmitry Medvedev stating that peace negotiations alone don't always end hostilities and that unsuccessful negotiations can lead to a more terrible stage of war with new weapons and participants. This is a significant statement from a high-level Russian official, potentially signaling a hardening stance on negotiations or a warning of escalation.
Claimed Influx of "Kraken" Battalion into Izium: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims that "Nazis" from the Kraken battalion (stated as prohibited in the Russian Federation) have entered Izium in Kharkiv Oblast, causing some local residents to leave and generating rumors of an impending offensive. This report, from a Russian source, utilizes highly charged language and frames the Ukrainian unit negatively, likely as part of an information operation. The claim of an impending offensive is unverified but suggests potential future activity in the area.
Reported Scandal within Ukrainian Military: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on a claimed scandal within the Ukrainian 47th Brigade, with a battalion commander (allegedly "Magura") submitting a resignation letter due to high losses and dissatisfaction with "incompetent generalship." The report includes a quote criticizing the command's focus on reprimands and investigations over the real situation. This, if true, highlights potential internal challenges and morale issues within some Ukrainian units.
Russian Claims of Liberating Villages in Donetsk Oblast: Два майора reports the Russian MoD claimed the liberation of Aleksandropol and Nova Poltavka in Donetsk Oblast. Рыбарь also reports Russian forces continued their offensive on the Andriyivka direction, confirming the liberation of Bohartyr and capturing surrounding farms. These claims, if verified, represent tactical gains for Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine President Zelenskyy's Diplomatic Engagements in Rome: РБК-Україна and Zelenskiy / Official report on President Zelenskyy's meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter in Rome. Discussions included peace initiatives, sanctions against Russia (including secondary, energy, and shadow fleet sanctions), defense cooperation, and the need for increased air defense for Ukraine. Zelenskyy also provided updates on the Istanbul negotiations and received invitations to the G7 summit. This highlights continued international diplomatic efforts to support Ukraine and pressure Russia.
Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Comments on Istanbul Negotiations and Russian Tactics: РБК-Україна and РБК-Україна share comments from Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Kyslytsya, a member of the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul, who believes Russian delegates attempted to intimidate him personally. He references a quote from the head of the Russian delegation, Medinsky, stating Russia is ready to fight forever and implying further losses for Ukraine. Kyslytsya shared a photo of his deceased nephew, a casualty of the conflict, to emphasize the human cost. This provides insight into the atmosphere and Russian tactics in the negotiations and highlights the personal impact of the conflict on Ukrainian officials.
Russian MoD Claims Downing Ukrainian HIMARS Projectiles in South Donetsk: MoD Russia reports that a Buk-M2 SAM system of the Vostok Group of Forces downed HIMARS projectiles of the AFU in the South Donetsk direction. This claim, if true, indicates the continued use of HIMARS by Ukrainian forces and Russian efforts to counter these systems.
Russian Military Blogger Claims Destruction of Ukrainian BMC Kirpi Armored Vehicle with FPV Drone: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Ukrainian BMC Kirpi armored vehicle of Turkish production was destroyed by Russian FPV drones in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk People's Republic. This highlights the ongoing use of FPV drones to target armored vehicles and claimed Russian success in doing so.
New York Times Article on Russian Soldier Sentiment: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a screenshot of a New York Times article reporting that Russian soldiers are war-weary but want to conquer more of Ukraine, and reject the idea of an unconditional ceasefire. This provides a perspective on the morale and motivations of some Russian soldiers, which can be relevant for understanding the sustainability of Russian offensive operations and the potential for negotiations.
Russian Military Blogger Request for FPV Drone Donations: STERNENKO reports that a Russian military blogger is requesting donations for over 300 FPV drones needed for tomorrow, with a total request exceeding 4000. This highlights the high consumption rate of FPV drones in the conflict and ongoing Russian efforts to procure and utilize these systems. STERNENKO also makes a similar request for Ukrainian FPV drone donations.
Russian MoD Showcases BMPT Terminator Training: MoD Russia shares a video showcasing crews of BMPT Terminator tank support fighting vehicles honing skills at rear training grounds. This suggests Russia is continuing to train personnel on and potentially preparing to deploy or sustain operations with these specialized armored vehicles.
Slovakian Prime Minister Ready to Support Referendum on Lifting Anti-Russian Sanctions: TASS reports that Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico is ready to support a referendum in the Slovak Republic on lifting anti-Russian sanctions if it is announced. This indicates potential dissent within the EU regarding sanctions policy and could impact the unity of the EU response to Russia.
Marco Rubio Comments on Trump's Desire to Meet Putin and Potential Negotiation Venue: TASS reports that Marco Rubio stated that Donald Trump wants to meet with Putin as soon as possible and that the location and time of negotiations are being decided. Rubio also commented that the Vatican could be a venue for peace talks, although he would not call it a mediator. This further emphasizes the potential for high-level US-Russia contact and explores potential alternative venues for negotiations.
Ukrainian Commander's Resignation from 47th Brigade: Оперативний ЗСУ reports that the battalion commander of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura," Oleksandr Shyrshyn, has submitted a resignation letter. He cited dissatisfaction with "political games" and a disconnect between the assessment of the real situation and possibilities. This reinforces previous reports of potential internal challenges within this unit and highlights concerns about leadership and strategy within parts of the Ukrainian military.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Stupochki, Pokrovsk, Dzerzhynsk, Toretsk, Konstantinovka direction, Krasnolimanskoye direction, Southern Donetsk direction, Kramatorsk, Bahatyr, Novoaleksandrovka, Nova Poltavka, Kostiantynivka): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Олексій Білошицький shares photos of Ukrainian infantry on positions in Toretsk. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА details claimed Russian advances and Ukrainian losses on the Konstantinovka direction, highlighting combined arms tactics. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes on Kramatorsk destroying a transport hub, damaging armored vehicles, and destroying a long-range missile launcher and warehouses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a claimed "suicidal" Russian assault with significant casualties in a fierce battle. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's claim of significant Russian equipment losses across the front, including in Donetsk Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides specific figures for Russian tank and armored vehicle losses in the "Khortytsia" operational zone, which includes parts of Donetsk Oblast. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on a claimed scandal within the Ukrainian 47th Brigade, operating in this general area. Два майора reports the Russian MoD claimed the liberation of Aleksandropol and Nova Poltavka. Рыбарь reports Russian forces continued their offensive on the Andriyivka direction, confirming the liberation of Bohartyr and capturing surrounding farms. MoD Russia reports a Buk-M2 SAM system downed HIMARS projectiles in the South Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad claims a Ukrainian BMC Kirpi armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian FPV drones in Kostiantynivka. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the resignation of a battalion commander from the 47th Brigade. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of BpLA on the south of Kharkiv oblast heading towards Donetsk oblast and BpLA on Dnipropetrovsk oblast heading towards Zaporizhia oblast. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a claimed attempt by a Russian soldier to counter a Ukrainian FPV drone with a stick on the Pokrovsk direction.
Sumy Oblast (Bilopillia): Affected by Russian military activity. РБК-Україна reports Russia attacked a regular bus near Bilopillia, with casualties, now updated to nine fatalities and four injuries. The Sumy community has declared a day of mourning. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes on military targets in Sumy Oblast, including using a FAB-1500 and other means, claiming no civilian casualties, presented as a counter-narrative. Оперативний ЗСУ shares information on claimed economic damage to Kursk Oblast agriculture from Ukrainian attacks, originating from a region bordering Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of Russian UAVs from Kursk Oblast heading towards northern Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of BpLA on the north of Sumy oblast heading towards Chernihiv oblast. РБК-Україна reports a group of BpLA on the north of Sumy oblast heading towards Chernihiv oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБи on Sumshchyna.
Kharkiv Oblast (Izium, Balakliia, Bohodukhiv): Affected by Russian military activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes on railway hubs and ammunition depots in Izium, Balakliia, and Bohodukhiv, and destruction of a fuel depot in Balakliia. He also claims strikes on a unit in Izium that arrived as reinforcement and was trained in Britain. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims "Nazis" from the Kraken battalion have entered Izium, causing some local residents to leave and generating rumors of an impending offensive. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of Russian UAVs in northern Kharkiv Oblast heading south and a group in southern Kharkiv Oblast heading north. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's claim of significant Russian equipment losses across the front, including in Kharkiv Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of BpLA on the south of Kharkiv oblast heading towards Donetsk oblast. РБК-Україна reports a group of BpLA on the south of Kharkiv oblast heading towards Donetsk oblast.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Voronezh): Affected by military activity. Старше Эдды reports the detention of a migrant in Voronezh for allegedly desecrating a war memorial. Оперативний ЗСУ shares information on claimed economic damage to Kursk Oblast agriculture from Ukrainian attacks, originating from a region bordering Sumy Oblast, citing a Russian source. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of Russian UAVs from Kursk Oblast heading towards northern Sumy Oblast.
Russia (Grozny, Voronezh, Shadrinsk, Kerch, Kuzbass, Moscow region): Various internal issues are reported. Colonelcassad reports on a group of volunteers departing from Grozny airport for the conflict zone. Старше Эдды reports the detention of a migrant in Voronezh for allegedly desecrating a war memorial. Colonelcassad shares photos from the opening of a monument to SVO participants in Shadrinsk. ASTRA reports a traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck and a civilian car, resulting in injuries. An accident at a substation in Kuzbass, Russia, resulted in power outages and the evacuation of people from six mines. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants, highlighting potential social/political issues. Colonelcassad shares a report about a leaked audio recording of Joe Biden suggesting cognitive decline, which is a Russian information operation. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants. Alex Parker Returns reports an Australian mercenary was sentenced to 13 years in Russia but may be part of a prisoner exchange.
Odesa Oblast: Affected by Russian military activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes on port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast used for NATO arms supplies.
Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast: Affected by Russian military activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes on airfields and air defense warehouses in Kyiv Oblast that were allegedly used for strikes on Russian territory. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of BpLA on the north of Chernihiv oblast heading towards Kyiv oblast. РБК-Україна reports a group of BpLA on the north of Chernihiv oblast heading towards Kyiv oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports 2 drones on the north of Kyiv oblast heading west.
Chernihiv Oblast: Affected by Russian military activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes on military objects near the border with Russia and Belarus, command posts, a tank range, and a crossing over the Desna River, which is claimed to be important for transferring forces to the Sumy direction. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of BpLA on the north of Sumy oblast heading towards Chernihiv oblast and a group in northern Chernihiv oblast heading southwest. РБК-Україна reports a group of BpLA on the north of Sumy oblast heading towards Chernihiv oblast and a group in northern Chernihiv oblast heading towards Kyiv oblast. Николаевский Ванёк reports 25 drones on the north of Chernihiv oblast heading west, and 5 heading towards/through Shostka. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports Chernihiv oblast is under Shahed attack with explosions heard in the city.
Khmelnytsky Oblast (Starokostiantyniv): Affected by Russian military activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a Russian strike on a key airfield in Starokostiantyniv.
Crimea (Perevalne): Two Russian military bloggers report a claimed Ukrainian drone strike on an ammunition depot in Perevalne. ASTRA reports a traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck and a civilian car, resulting in injuries.
Poltava Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Shaheds" in eastern Poltava Oblast heading towards Kharkiv Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Shaheds" in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading west. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports BpLA on Dnipropetrovsk oblast heading towards Zaporizhia oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports BpLA on Dnipropetrovsk oblast heading towards Donetsk oblast.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv): ASTRA reports Russian forces struck Orikhiv with a drone, injuring three people. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports strikes on enemy objects near the front line in Zaporizhzhia oblast, field warehouses near Orikhiv, and foreign mercenary locations, claiming about 20 enemy deaths. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports BpLA on Dnipropetrovsk oblast heading towards Zaporizhia oblast.
Italy (Rome): РБК-Україна and Zelenskiy / Official report on President Zelenskyy's diplomatic meetings in Rome with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter.
Switzerland: Zelenskiy / Official and РБК-Україна report on President Zelenskyy's meeting with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter in Rome. РБК-Україна reports US Secretary Rubio stated the Vatican could be a venue for peace talks, not as a mediator, but a place comfortable for both sides.
Vatican: РБК-Україна reports US Secretary Rubio stated the Vatican could be a venue for peace talks.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Remains extremely high and widespread. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively tracking numerous drone groups across various oblasts. Russian forces are employing FPV drones and reportedly launching drones from Belgorod and Kursk towards Ukrainian territory. Ukraine has previously reported the use of naval drones and is allegedly targeting Russian soldiers in anti-drone cloaks. Colonelcassad shares a video highlighting the combat work of Russian FPV drone crews. The Ukrainian Air Force reports tracking and engaging enemy UAVs over multiple oblasts, with specific trajectories noted. Два майора reports on a claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations, highlighting Russian efforts to counter drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian defenders targeting Russian assault troops on motorcycles with drones. STERNENKO shares an FPV drone feed with a "BOMB ARMED" overlay, highlighting the use of armed FPV drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА highlights claimed Russian sniper-reconnaissance teams destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopters. Colonelcassad is fundraising for consumables needed for training in countering enemy drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of Russian UAVs from Kursk Oblast heading towards northern Sumy Oblast, a group in northern Kharkiv Oblast heading south, a group in southern Kharkiv Oblast heading north, "Shaheds" in eastern Poltava Oblast heading towards Kharkiv Oblast, "Shaheds" in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading west, and enemy strike UAVs from Belgorod Oblast heading towards southern Sumy and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. Два майора reports on French military exercises including the involvement of various types of drones, highlighting adaptation to modern warfare. ASTRA reports Russian forces struck Orikhiv with a drone. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of BpLA on the north of Sumy oblast heading towards Chernihiv oblast, a group in northern Chernihiv oblast heading towards Kyiv oblast, a group on the south of Kharkiv oblast heading towards Donetsk oblast, and BpLA on Dnipropetrovsk oblast heading towards Zaporizhia oblast. РБК-Україна reports wide air alert due to strike drones with specific groups noted. Николаевский Ванёк reports specific numbers and locations of "mopeds" (drones) in Donetsk, Chernihiv, and Kyiv oblasts. STERNENKO reports the threat of strike UAVs from the north and a massive attack. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a claimed attempt by a Russian soldier to counter a Ukrainian FPV drone with a stick on the Pokrovsk direction. STERNENKO reports a Russian military blogger is requesting donations for FPV drones and makes a similar request. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports BpLA on Dnipropetrovsk oblast heading towards Donetsk oblast.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued widespread use by Russian forces, including repeated launches targeting Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes in Bilopillia and Myropillia included a FAB-1500 and aviation bombs. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБи on Sumshchyna.
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active, launching KABs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian Aerospace Forces conducted 24 strikes on military objects across Ukraine, including airbases. Два майора reports on a claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports КАБи on Sumshchyna.
Missile Activity: The threat of missile strikes persists. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes included the destruction of a long-range missile launcher in Kramatorsk. MoD Russia reports a Buk-M2 SAM system downed HIMARS projectiles in the South Donetsk direction.
Naval Activity: Reports of Russian drones emerging from the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast continue. The Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian warships or missile carriers in the Black or Azov Seas as of 06:00 on May 17, 2025, but notes the presence of a Kalibr carrier in the Mediterranean and significant ship traffic through the Kerch Strait. Russia is reported to be violating the SOLAS convention by disabling automatic identification systems. Два майора reports on French military exercises focusing on amphibious operations with multiple international participants, indicating adaptation to modern naval warfare tactics.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively tracking and engaging numerous Russian drone groups across various oblasts. Russian air defense systems are claiming interceptions of Ukrainian UAVs over border regions. Два майора reports on a claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations with a 12-gauge shotgun as armament, highlighting Russian efforts to counter drones. Colonelcassad is fundraising for consumables needed for training in countering enemy drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА highlights claimed Russian sniper-reconnaissance teams destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopters. MoD Russia reports a Buk-M2 SAM system downed HIMARS projectiles in the South Donetsk direction.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery fire from both sides. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian defenders targeting Russian assault troops on motorcycles with mortars and cluster munitions. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА highlights the coordinated use of artillery by the Russian 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a photo of a self-propelled howitzer firing, indicating ongoing artillery use. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of Grad MLRS working on the Orikhiv sector of the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Negotiations and Peace Talks: Discussions regarding potential negotiations in Istanbul are ongoing, marked by delays and uncertainty. The trilateral meeting between Turkey, the US, and Ukraine has concluded. Disagreements persist regarding the format and participation in any subsequent Russia-Ukraine direct negotiations. Ukraine expresses readiness for peace, an unconditional ceasefire, and high-level meetings, while noting Putin's absence from Istanbul. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian public opinion shows strong support for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Рыбарь reports on an alleged conflict between Zelenskyy and Umierov regarding the negotiation delegation, attributing it to external influence. Alex Parker Returns, Новости Москвы, Colonelcassad, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirm the upcoming Putin-Trump phone conversation on May 19th. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares the US State Department's account of the Rubio-Lavrov call, emphasizing a US peace plan and call for immediate ceasefire, highlighting differing narratives. Dmitry Medvedev's statement on negotiations potentially leading to a "more terrible stage" is a significant development. РБК-Україна and Zelenskiy / Official report on President Zelenskyy's diplomatic meetings in Rome with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter, where negotiations were discussed. РБК-Україна and РБК-Україна share comments from Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Kyslytsya on the Istanbul negotiations and perceived Russian intimidation tactics. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a DW report stating Russia will not return to negotiations before October, anticipating a summer offensive. Воин DV reports on published Russian demands for negotiations in Istanbul (neutrality, no reparations, rights for Russian speakers, recognition of annexed territories, withdrawal of Ukrainian forces). Воин DV reports Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Kyslytsya is waiting for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting and pressure on Russia. Воин DV reports Hungarian Prime Minister Orban called on the EU to start negotiations with Putin. Воин DV reports Serbian President Vucic sees the 1000x1000 prisoner exchange as a sign of real dialogue. Воин DV reports The Telegraph's concern in Kyiv that Trump and Putin will agree without Ukraine. Воин DV reports TASS stating Trump intends to discuss the situation in Ukraine and trade with Putin on May 19th. Zelenskiy / Official and РБК-Україна report on President Zelenskyy's meeting with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter where negotiations were discussed, including the importance of US coordination. РБК-Україна reports US Secretary Rubio stated the Vatican could be a venue for peace talks, not as a mediator. TASS reports Trump wants to meet Putin as soon as possible and the location/time are being decided, citing Rubio.
International Support for Ukraine: International military exercises are ongoing. Discussions about future EU sanctions packages against Russia continue. Western partners are engaging in diplomatic discussions with Ukraine, including the recent trilateral meeting in Istanbul. The alleged arson incident in the UK involving a Ukrainian citizen could potentially impact bilateral relations and international perceptions. Concerns within the EU about potential opposition to supporting Kyiv are reported. Canada is engaging with Ukraine on the issue of prisoners of war. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a plan by Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS and Patriot missiles in Europe, indicating significant long-term military support. Два майора reports on French military exercises with multiple international participants, highlighting NATO cooperation. STERNENKO reports Belgium will provide €1 billion in aid in 2025, including military equipment (Unimogs, Cerber systems, surface drones, Leopard tank, drones, small arms), and €650 million for contracts with Belgian defense companies. РБК-Україна and Zelenskiy / Official report on President Zelenskyy's meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney where defense cooperation was discussed. Zelenskiy / Official and РБК-Україна report on President Zelenskyy's meeting with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter where humanitarian support, demining, school projects, and Swiss company participation in reconstruction were discussed.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct diplomatic exchanges are anticipated in Istanbul, although the format is disputed. Information operations regarding the negotiations are ongoing. Басурин о главном shares a video likely intended to portray Ukrainians appealing to Putin. РБК-Україна and Zelenskiy / Official report on President Zelenskyy's diplomatic meetings in Rome. РБК-Україна and РБК-Україна share comments from Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Kyslytsya on the Istanbul negotiations and perceived Russian intimidation tactics. Воин DV reports an exchange of bodies of the deceased (Russia 909, Ukraine 34).
Internal Ukrainian Politics: High-level officials are participating in diplomatic negotiations. Measures to ensure public order in Kyiv are being implemented. Efforts to support veterans and address mental health are underway. Legal actions against illegal land use are being pursued. Рыбарь reports on an alleged internal conflict within the Ukrainian command regarding negotiations. Операция Z: Военкоры Руссной Весны reports on a claimed scandal within the Ukrainian 47th Brigade. РБК-Україна and Zelenskiy / Official report on President Zelenskyy's diplomatic meetings in Rome. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the resignation of a battalion commander from the 47th Brigade. РБК-Україна reports on Crystal Palace winning the FA Cup, a non-military related event. Глеб Никитин reports on a youth festival and "Night of Museums" in Chkalovsk, Russia, which is not related to Ukrainian internal politics.
Internal Russian Politics and Society: High-level military command changes have occurred. Internal legal and security issues are present, including corruption accusations and the detention of alleged FSB agents. Domestic initiatives like the "Time of Heroes" program and proposed "demographic week" reflect internal priorities. Infrastructure vulnerabilities are highlighted by the Kuzbass accident. Information operations are ongoing. Cultural developments like the re-creation of the Stalin bas-relief are noted. Geopolitical engagements with Belarus, Afghanistan, and reportedly Central Asian countries are being pursued. Economic discussions regarding sanctions and energy exports are occurring. Старше Эдды reports the detention of a migrant in Voronezh for allegedly desecrating a war memorial. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants, highlighting potential social/political issues. Colonelcassad shares a report about a leaked audio recording of Joe Biden suggesting cognitive decline, which is a Russian information operation. Новости Москвы shares a non-military related post about the cost of a restroom in a Moscow department store. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants. Alex Parker Returns reports an Australian mercenary was sentenced to 13 years in Russia but may be part of a prisoner exchange. TASS reports Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico is ready to support a referendum on lifting anti-Russian sanctions. TASS reports Trump wants to meet Putin as soon as possible, citing Rubio.
US Stance on Negotiations: The US participated in the trilateral meeting in Istanbul. The level of US participation in direct Russia-Ukraine talks is a point of contention. Trump expresses interest in meeting Putin. The reported US sanctions against the ICC have significant international legal and political implications. Alex Parker Returns, Новости Москвы, Colonelcassad, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirm the upcoming Putin-Trump phone conversation on May 19th. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares the US State Department's account of the Rubio-Lavrov call, emphasizing a US peace plan and call for immediate ceasefire. РБК-Україна and Zelenskiy / Official report on President Zelenskyy's meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney where negotiations were discussed, including US coordination. TASS reports Trump intends to discuss the situation in Ukraine and trade with Putin on May 19th, citing Rubio. РБК-Україна reports US Secretary Rubio stated the Vatican could be a venue for peace talks, not as a mediator. TASS reports Trump wants to meet Putin as soon as possible and the location/time are being decided, citing Rubio. Colonelcassad shares a report about a leaked audio recording of Joe Biden suggesting cognitive decline, which is a Russian information operation.
Turkish Role in Negotiations: Turkey hosted the trilateral meeting and is facilitating potential Russia-Ukraine talks, although their role in direct negotiations is disputed by Russia.
Speculation on Trump's Role: Speculation regarding a Trump-Putin meeting continues, with Trump himself confirming his desire to meet. Alex Parker Returns, Новости Москвы, Colonelcassad, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirm the upcoming Putin-Trump phone conversation on May 19th. TASS reports Trump intends to discuss the situation in Ukraine and trade with Putin on May 19th, citing Rubio. TASS reports Trump wants to meet Putin as soon as possible and the location/time are being decided, citing Rubio. Colonelcassad shares a report about a leaked audio recording of Joe Biden suggesting cognitive decline, which is a Russian information operation.
Ukraine-UK Relations: The alleged arson incident in the UK involving a Ukrainian citizen is a new, potentially sensitive development.
NATO Development: NATO members are participating in military exercises near Russia. Два майора reports on French military exercises with multiple international participants.
EU Politics: Discussions on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia are underway. Concerns within the EU about potential opposition to supporting Kyiv are reported. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a plan by German company Rheinmetall and American Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS and Patriot missiles in Europe, highlighting EU involvement in long-term military support. TASS reports Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico is ready to support a referendum on lifting anti-Russian sanctions. Воин DV reports Hungarian Prime Minister Orban called on the EU to start negotiations with Putin.
Russia-Belarus Relations: High-level military and political talks are occurring to strengthen the common defense space and prepare for joint exercises.
Russia-Afghanistan Relations: Reconsideration of the ban on the Taliban and consideration of the Afghan Ambassador's candidacy indicate potential normalization of relations.
Russia-Central Asia Relations: The reported US program to train community leaders in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan highlights external influence in a region of strategic importance to Russia.
North Korea: Kim Jong Un's visit to an aviation regiment and emphasis on war preparedness is reported. Kim Jong Un inspected large-scale tactical exercises, emphasizing military education and adaptation to modern warfare. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports, citing Reuters, that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called on the army to better "prepare for war".
Vatican's Potential Role: РБК-Україна reports US Secretary Rubio stated the Vatican could be a venue for peace talks, not as a mediator.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

High-Level Military Personnel Changes: A change in the Commander of the Central Military District has occurred.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces are engaged in intense ground combat, claiming tactical successes. They continue to utilize KABs and drones extensively and are developing new small arms. Claims of eliminating Ukrainian equipment are made. Improvised armor is being used to enhance vehicle protection against FPV drones. An accident at a substation in Kuzbass highlights potential infrastructure vulnerabilities impacting industrial activity. The falling of a Russian aviation bomb in occupied territory indicates potential issues with munitions. Два майора reports on a claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a claimed "suicidal" Russian assault with significant casualties. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА details claimed Russian advances and Ukrainian losses on the Konstantinovka direction, emphasizing combined arms tactics. Colonelcassad reports on a group of volunteers departing from Grozny airport for the conflict zone after special training. Два майора reports the Russian MoD claimed the liberation of Aleksandropol and Nova Poltavka. Рыбарь reports Russian forces continued their offensive on the Andriyivka direction, confirming the liberation of Bohartyr and capturing surrounding farms. MoD Russia reports a Buk-M2 SAM system downed HIMARS projectiles in the South Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad claims a Ukrainian BMC Kirpi armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian FPV drones in Kostiantynivka. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a New York Times article reporting that Russian soldiers are war-weary but want to conquer more of Ukraine, and reject the idea of an unconditional ceasefire. STERNENKO reports a Russian military blogger is requesting donations for over 300 FPV drones needed for tomorrow, with a total request exceeding 4000. MoD Russia showcases BMPT Terminator training. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports strikes on enemy objects near the front line in Zaporizhzhia oblast, field warehouses near Orikhiv, and foreign mercenary locations, claiming about 20 enemy deaths. «Зона СВО» shares a photo with a caption about every shot being like the only one, a military-themed motivational post. MoD Russia shares a video of BMPT Terminator tank support fighting vehicle crews training.
Casualty Reports: Previously reported civilian and military casualties. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники report that each fourth deceased Russian soldier signed a contract after the start of the conflict. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a claimed "suicidal" Russian assault with significant casualties. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 and РБК-Україна report Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's claim of significant Russian equipment losses since the start of the year. Colonelcassad shares photos of deceased individuals in military uniform, indicating casualties. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a priest from Tobolsk, Serhii Vaida, died in Kherson oblast from an enemy drone strike while saving a wounded comrade. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports about 20 enemy deaths after strikes on foreign mercenary locations in Zaporizhzhia oblast.
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources are actively engaged in information operations to shape narratives about the conflict, military effectiveness, leadership changes, alleged Ukrainian actions (mine usage, resistance to mobilization), and the perceived stance of Western leaders on negotiations. The re-creation of the Stalin bas-relief is a cultural act with propaganda implications. The reported US sanctions against the ICC are framed negatively by Russian sources. Басурин о главном shares a video likely intended to portray Ukrainians appealing to Putin. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 frames the entry of Kraken battalion into Izium negatively. Kotsnews shares satirical commentary about the appearance of the Ukrainian delegation, aiming to mock them. Два майора reports on claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations, presented with some humor/skepticism by the author. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants, highlighting potential social/political issues. Colonelcassad shares a report about a leaked audio recording of Joe Biden suggesting cognitive decline, which is a Russian information operation. Новости Москвы shares a non-military related post about the cost of a restroom in a Moscow department store. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a New York Times article report on Russian soldier sentiment. Воин DV reports on published Russian demands for negotiations, serving as a Russian narrative. Воин DV reports Konstantin Kosachev's opinion that Kyiv and the EU are not interested in peace. Воин DV reports Hungarian Prime Minister Orban's call for the EU to start negotiations with Putin. Воин DV reports Serbian President Vucic's view on the 1000x1000 prisoner exchange. Воин DV reports The Telegraph's concern in Kyiv about Trump-Putin talks. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Ukrainian BMC Kirpi armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian FPV drones. «Зона СВО» shares a military-themed motivational post. MoD Russia showcases BMPT Terminator training, likely for propaganda. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants. Alex Parker Returns reports an Australian mercenary was sentenced to 13 years in Russia but may be part of a prisoner exchange, framing it from a Russian perspective.
Resource Mobilization: Efforts to mobilize resources for the military through non-governmental channels continue. The "Time of Heroes" program aims to integrate veterans into leadership roles. Colonelcassad is fundraising for consumables needed for training in countering enemy drones. STERNENKO reports a Russian military blogger is requesting donations for over 300 FPV drones needed for tomorrow, with a total request exceeding 4000.
Mine Clearing: Mine clearing operations are ongoing.
Civilian Impact: Previously reported on the impact of the conflict on civilians. The Kuzbass accident impacted residents through power outages. ASTRA reports a traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck and a civilian car, resulting in injuries. ASTRA reports Russian forces struck Orikhiv with a drone, injuring three people. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports a priest from Tobolsk, Serhii Vaida, died in Kherson oblast from an enemy drone strike while saving a wounded comrade.
Defense Planning: The Russian Defense Plan has been extended to 2027. Strengthening the common defense space with Belarus is a priority.
Social Notes: A proposal for a "demographic week" is being considered. Старше Эдды reports the detention of a migrant in Voronezh for allegedly desecrating a war memorial, highlighting social tensions. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants, highlighting potential social/political issues. Новости Москвы shares a non-military related post about the cost of a restroom in a Moscow department store. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants.
Law Enforcement and Criminal Activity: Internal legal and security issues are present, including corruption accusations and the detention of alleged FSB agents. The incident in Kyiv involving a minibus and mobilized individuals highlights challenges related to mobilization and potential resistance. ASTRA reports a traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck and a civilian car. Старше Эдды reports the detention of a migrant in Voronezh for allegedly desecrating a war memorial. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants, highlighting potential social/political issues. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants. Alex Parker Returns reports an Australian mercenary was sentenced to 13 years in Russia but may be part of a prisoner exchange.
Infrastructure: An accident at a substation in Kuzbass highlights vulnerabilities in Russian energy infrastructure impacting industrial activity and civilian life. Colonelcassad shares a video of a Russian strike on a Ukrainian control point in a high-rise building in Pokrovsk.
Culture and Symbolism: The re-creation of the Stalin bas-relief in the Moscow metro is a significant cultural and political act. Старше Эдды reports the detention of a migrant in Voronezh for allegedly desecrating a war memorial, which involves the desecration of a war memorial. Глеб Никитин reports on a youth festival and "Night of Museums" in Chkalovsk, Russia, including aviation history and heroes. Глеб Никитин shares photos from a museum exhibit and a performance at a youth festival, not directly related to military operations.
Economic Issues: The impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and efforts to find new economic partners (India) are noted. Discussions on potential new EU sanctions on energy exports are occurring. Оперативний ЗСУ shares information on claimed economic damage to Kursk Oblast agriculture from Ukrainian attacks. TASS reports Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico is ready to support a referendum on lifting anti-Russian sanctions.
Geopolitical Engagements: Diplomatic efforts with Belarus, Afghanistan, and engagement in Central Asia are noted. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports, citing Reuters, that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called on the army to better "prepare for war". РБК-Україна reports US Secretary Rubio stated the Vatican could be a venue for peace talks, not as a mediator.
Recruitment: The Rybаr report on the Kyiv minibus incident highlights challenges and resistance related to mobilization efforts in Ukraine. The report on contract soldier casualties provides data on recruitment patterns. Colonelcassad reports on a group of volunteers departing from Grozny airport for the conflict zone after special training.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): International support continues through diplomatic engagement, military exercises, and aid provisions (though limitations on some advanced weapons exist). Ukraine is enhancing existing military systems. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a plan by Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS and Patriot missiles in Europe, indicating long-term international military support. Colonelcassad is fundraising for consumables needed for training in countering enemy drones, highlighting the ongoing adaptation to tactical challenges and the role of private initiatives in supporting military training. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's claim of significant Russian equipment losses since the start of the year, which highlights the need for continued support to inflict such losses. STERNENKO reports Belgium will provide €1 billion in aid in 2025, including military equipment, and €650 million for contracts with Belgian defense companies. РБК-Україна and Zelenskiy / Official report on President Zelenskyy's meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney where defense cooperation was discussed. STERNENKO reports requesting donations for FPV drones. Олександр Вілкул provides figures on Russian personnel and equipment losses over the past day.
Military Support (Russia): Efforts to provide military support through non-governmental channels continue. Development of new small arms variants is ongoing. Improvised armor is being used to enhance vehicle protection. Colonelcassad is fundraising for consumables needed for training in countering enemy drones. STERNENKO reports a Russian military blogger is requesting donations for over 300 FPV drones needed for tomorrow, with a total request exceeding 4000. «Зона СВО» shares a military-themed motivational post. MoD Russia showcases BMPT Terminator training.
Civilian Support (Ukraine): Support through international organizations is being sought. Efforts to address mental health and provide support for veterans and their families are underway. Legal actions are being taken to protect communal assets. РБК-Україна reports on the bus attack near Bilopillia resulting in civilian casualties. ASTRA reports Russian forces struck Orikhiv with a drone, injuring three people. Олександр Вілкул reports on FPV drone and artillery attacks in Nikopol district, damaging a high-rise, private house, and outbuildings, with no casualties. Zelenskiy / Official and РБК-Україна report on President Zelenskyy's meeting with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter where humanitarian support, school projects, and building shelters were discussed. Олександр Вілкул reports on finding and destroying Uragan MLRS shells in Kryvyi Rih district, highlighting demining efforts. Олександр Вілкул reports on support for youth and cultural events in Kryvyi Rih.
Civilian Support (Russia): Humanitarian efforts involving Russian citizens in other conflicts are noted. The "Time of Heroes" program supports veterans. Social initiatives like the proposed "demographic week" are being considered. ASTRA reports a traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck and a civilian car, resulting in injuries to a civilian. ASTRA reports Russian forces struck Orikhiv with a drone, injuring three people. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants, highlighting potential social/political issues. Новости Москвы shares a non-military related post about the cost of a restroom in a Moscow department store. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants. Alex Parker Returns reports an Australian mercenary was sentenced to 13 years in Russia but may be part of a prisoner exchange.
Veterans Support (Ukraine): Adaptive sports training programs are being offered. Олександр Вілкул reports on city-level "Veterans Family Games" in Kryvyi Rih, including sports competitions and financial prizes.
Veterans Support (Russia): The "Time of Heroes" program aims to train veterans for leadership roles.
Rehabilitation (Ukraine): Олександр Вілкул reports on city-level "Veterans Family Games" in Kryvyi Rih, which includes rehabilitation aspects.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukraine: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults across multiple fronts, reporting significant losses inflicted on the enemy. Utilizing drones for various purposes, including reconnaissance, targeting, taking prisoners, and engaging in close-quarters combat (fiber-optic drones, FPV drones). Employing tactics including mine warfare, remote mining, and establishing reserve defensive lines. Actively engaged in air defense to counter widespread Russian aerial attacks. Seeking continued international military and political support. Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian shelling and aerial attacks, including the tragic bus attack in Sumy Oblast. Experiencing challenges related to mobilization and potential resistance. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian defenders targeting Russian assault troops on motorcycles with mortars, cluster munitions, and drones. STERNENKO shares an FPV drone feed with a "BOMB ARMED" overlay, highlighting the use of armed FPV drones. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 and РБК-Україна report Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's claim of significant Russian equipment losses since the start of the year, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces in destroying Russian armor. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on a claimed scandal within the Ukrainian 47th Brigade. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the resignation of a battalion commander from the 47th Brigade. РБК-Україна reports on President Zelenskyy's diplomatic meetings in Rome where defense cooperation was discussed. STERNENKO reports requesting donations for FPV drones. Олександр Вілкул reports on FPV drone attacks in Nikopol district, highlighting the use of drones against Ukrainian positions. Олександр Вілкул reports on finding and destroying Uragan MLRS shells in Kryvyi Rih district, highlighting demining efforts. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a photo of a self-propelled howitzer firing. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a claimed attempt by a Russian soldier to counter a Ukrainian FPV drone with a stick on the Pokrovsk direction, highlighting Ukrainian FPV drone activity. Олександр Вілкул provides figures on Russian personnel and equipment losses over the past day.
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults across multiple fronts, claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements. Employing extensive air strikes with guided bombs, artillery, and MLRS. Utilizing a high number of kamikaze and other types of drones, including Lancet loitering munitions, for various tactical engagements. Undergoing changes in high-level command structure. Relying in part on public donations for equipment. Utilizing information operations as a key tactic. Conducting mine clearing operations and developing counter-mine measures. Developing and introducing new small arms variants. Engaging in diplomatic efforts. Experiencing casualties. Utilizing improvised armor on vehicles. Operating with Belarus to strengthen common defense. Два майора reports on a claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations, highlighting adaptation of tactics and technology. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a claimed "suicidal" Russian assault with significant casualties, highlighting potential ineffective tactics. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА details claimed Russian advances and Ukrainian losses on the Konstantinovka direction, emphasizing combined arms tactics. Colonelcassad reports on a group of volunteers departing from Grozny airport for the conflict zone after special training, indicating ongoing personnel acquisition and training. Два майора reports the Russian MoD claimed the liberation of Aleksandropol and Nova Poltavka. Рыбарь reports Russian forces continued their offensive on the Andriyivka direction, confirming the liberation of Bohartyr and capturing surrounding farms. MoD Russia reports a Buk-M2 SAM system downed HIMARS projectiles in the South Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad claims a Ukrainian BMC Kirpi armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian FPV drones in Kostiantynivka. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a New York Times article reporting on Russian soldier sentiment. STERNENKO reports a Russian military blogger is requesting donations for over 300 FPV drones needed for tomorrow, with a total request exceeding 4000. MoD Russia showcases BMPT Terminator training. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports strikes on enemy objects near the front line in Zaporizhzhia oblast, field warehouses near Orikhiv, and foreign mercenary locations, claiming about 20 enemy deaths. «Зона СВО» shares a military-themed motivational post. MoD Russia shares a video of BMPT Terminator tank support fighting vehicle crews training. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a claimed attempt by a Russian soldier to counter a Ukrainian FPV drone with a stick on the Pokrovsk direction, highlighting Russian personnel and reactions to Ukrainian FPV drones. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of Grad MLRS working on the Orikhiv sector of the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey is playing a facilitating role in potential negotiations. The US is engaging in diplomatic efforts, including the trilateral meeting and separate discussions with the Russian delegation. Speculation continues regarding former US President Trump's potential involvement, with a phone conversation confirmed. NATO members are participating in military exercises and providing aid. A Ukrainian citizen is involved in a criminal investigation in the UK. Canada is engaging with Ukraine on the issue of prisoners of war. The reported US sanctions against the ICC are a significant action impacting an international body. Geopolitical engagements in Central Asia, Afghanistan, and the BRICS expansion are noted. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a plan by Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS and Patriot missiles in Europe, indicating long-term international military support. Два майора reports on French military exercises with multiple international participants. STERNENKO reports Belgium will provide €1 billion in aid in 2025, including military equipment, and €650 million for contracts with Belgian defense companies. РБК-Україна and Zelenskiy / Official report on President Zelenskyy's diplomatic meetings in Rome with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter. РБК-Україна reports US Secretary Rubio stated the Vatican could be a venue for peace talks, not as a mediator. TASS reports Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico is ready to support a referendum on lifting anti-Russian sanctions. TASS reports Trump wants to meet Putin as soon as possible and the location/time are being decided, citing Rubio. Alex Parker Returns reports an Australian mercenary was sentenced to 13 years in Russia but may be part of a prisoner exchange.
Equipment and Tactics: Continued extensive use of various types of drones by both sides (strike UAVs, FPV drones). Colonelcassad shares a video highlighting the combat work of Russian FPV drone crews. Colonelcassad claims a "Geran" drone strike in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Russian sniper pair was covering assault troops and destroyed a Ukrainian octocopter, highlighting claimed combined arms tactics and counter-drone success. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar using a UAV for detection and artillery fire from a 2A36 "Giatsint-B" howitzer, highlighting the claimed combined use of drones for reconnaissance and artillery for strike. TASS shares video footage from Kherson Oblast showcasing training of Russian military assault units of the "Dnepr" Group of Forces with combat robotic platforms, highlighting the claimed use and training with advanced military technology. Два майора reports on a claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian defenders targeting Russian assault troops on motorcycles with mortars, cluster munitions, and drones. STERNENKO shares an FPV drone feed with a "BOMB ARMED" overlay, highlighting the use of armed FPV drones. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a plan by Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS and Patriot missiles in Europe. STERNENKO reports Belgium will provide military equipment, including drones, surface drones, a Leopard tank, and Cerber systems. MoD Russia reports a Buk-M2 SAM system downed HIMARS projectiles in the South Donetsk direction. Colonelcassad claims a Ukrainian BMC Kirpi armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian FPV drones. STERNENKO reports a Russian military blogger is requesting donations for over 300 FPV drones needed for tomorrow, with a total request exceeding 4000. MoD Russia showcases BMPT Terminator training. Олександр Вілкул reports on FPV drone attacks in Nikopol district. Олександр Вілкул reports on finding and destroying Uragan MLRS shells in Kryvyi Rih district. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a photo of a self-propelled howitzer firing. MoD Russia shares a video of BMPT Terminator tank support fighting vehicle crews training. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a claimed attempt by a Russian soldier to counter a Ukrainian FPV drone with a stick on the Pokrovsk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of Grad MLRS working on the Orikhiv sector of the Zaporizhzhia direction. Олександр Вілкул provides figures on Russian equipment losses over the past day, including tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery systems, MLRS, and UAVs.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The upcoming phone conversation between Russian President Putin and Donald Trump on May 19th is a significant strategic development, indicating direct high-level contact between the US and Russia which could influence the diplomatic trajectory of the conflict. TASS reports Trump wants to meet Putin as soon as possible and the location/time are being decided, citing Rubio, further emphasizing the strategic importance of potential direct talks.
Russian efforts to modernize platforms for counter-drone operations, such as the claimed Як-52Б2 modification, highlight a strategic adaptation to the prevalent use of drones by Ukrainian forces and a recognition of the need to counter this threat. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a claimed attempt by a Russian soldier to counter a Ukrainian FPV drone with a stick on the Pokrovsk direction, while presented satirically, it reflects the tactical reality of encountering FPV drones at close range and the challenges in countering them.
Reports from a Russian source of a "suicidal" Russian assault with significant casualties, while unverified, can have strategic implications for understanding the cost and potential effectiveness of certain Russian tactics and could contribute to internal Russian discourse regarding military strategy and leadership.
The US State Department's account of the Rubio-Lavrov call, emphasizing a US peace plan and call for an immediate ceasefire, underscores the continued US diplomatic engagement and its distinct position on the conflict, which is strategically relevant for understanding the broader international context and potential diplomatic initiatives.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's claim of significant Russian equipment losses since the start of the year, if accurate, is a crucial strategic indicator of the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces and the rate of attrition of Russian military capabilities, impacting Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations and highlighting the need for continued international military support for Ukraine. Олександр Вілкул provides figures on Russian personnel and equipment losses over the past day (910 personnel, 6 tanks, 7 armored combat vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 155 UAVs, 96 vehicles), which reinforces the claim of significant Russian losses.
The plan by Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS and Patriot missiles in Europe is a major strategic development aimed at ensuring a sustained supply of key Western missile systems to Ukraine and bolstering European defense capabilities in the long term.
Russian information operations, such as the video shared by Басурин о главнoм framing a Ukrainian appeal to Putin, are strategically aimed at influencing narratives, portraying a specific image of the conflict, and potentially sowing dissent within Ukraine. ASTRA reports on members of the "Russian Community" in Yekaterinburg failing a history test for migrants and Colonelcassad sharing a report about a leaked audio recording of Joe Biden are also part of information operations aimed at internal and external audiences. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a New York Times article report on Russian soldier sentiment, which is likely used in information operations. Воин DV reports on published Russian demands for negotiations, serving as a Russian narrative. Воин DV reports Konstantin Kosachev's opinion that Kyiv and the EU are not interested in peace. Воин DV reports Hungarian Prime Minister Orban's call for the EU to start negotiations with Putin. Воин DV reports Serbian President Vucic's view on the 1000x1000 prisoner exchange. Воин DV reports The Telegraph's concern in Kyiv about Trump-Putin talks. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming a Ukrainian BMC Kirpi armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian FPV drones, likely for propaganda. «Зона СВО» shares a military-themed motivational post. MoD Russia showcases BMPT Terminator training, likely for propaganda.
French military exercises focusing on amphibious operations with international participation highlight the ongoing adaptation of NATO tactics to modern warfare and the strategic importance placed on expeditionary capabilities, which could be relevant in the broader European security context.
The Ukrainian official's comments on the estimated economic damage to Kursk Oblast agriculture from Ukrainian attacks highlight the strategic impact of Ukrainian cross-border actions on the Russian economy and can be used in strategic messaging by Ukraine to emphasize the costs of the conflict for Russia.
Ukrainian public opinion showing strong support for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, as indicated by the "Rating" poll, is strategically relevant for understanding internal Ukrainian sentiment regarding de-escalation and could influence political and diplomatic decisions related to peace initiatives, despite skepticism about the current negotiation format.
The report of an alleged internal conflict within the Ukrainian command regarding negotiations, while from a Russian source and potentially part of an information operation, points to the strategic complexities and potential internal dynamics within the Ukrainian leadership during high-level diplomatic engagements. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the resignation of a battalion commander from the 47th Brigade, reinforcing the possibility of internal challenges within parts of the Ukrainian military.
The traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck, while seemingly a localized incident, can have broader strategic implications by highlighting the ongoing military presence in occupied territories, potential operational safety issues, and the impact of military activity on civilian life, which can be leveraged in information operations by opposing sides.
Dmitry Medvedev's statement on negotiations potentially leading to escalation is a significant strategic communication from a high-level Russian official, potentially intended to signal a hardening of Russia's position, deter certain actions from the opposing side, or prepare for potential future escalation if diplomatic efforts do not yield outcomes favorable to Russia.
The claimed influx of the "Kraken" battalion into Izium and rumors of an impending offensive, as reported by a Russian source, could be strategically intended to generate concern and fear among the local population or to preemptively frame potential future Ukrainian military activity in the area.
The reported scandal within the Ukrainian 47th Brigade, if accurate, highlights potential internal challenges related to command effectiveness, troop morale, and casualty rates within some Ukrainian units, which are strategically important factors impacting overall military capability and sustainability. Оперативний ЗСУ reports the resignation of a battalion commander from the 47th Brigade, providing specific information supporting this claim.
The continued widespread and dynamic Russian drone activity across multiple Ukrainian oblasts remains a significant strategic challenge for Ukraine, necessitating the sustained operation and adaptation of air defense systems across the entire country and suggesting Russian efforts to maintain pressure, gather intelligence, or target infrastructure beyond the immediate front lines. Multiple reports from Ukrainian and Russian sources on drone movements across numerous oblasts confirm the scale and persistence of this strategic threat. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reporting Chernihiv oblast is under Shahed attack with explosions heard in the city highlights the impact of these attacks. STERNENKO reports the threat of strike UAVs from the north and a massive attack. STERNENKO reports a Russian military blogger is requesting donations for FPV drones and makes a similar request, highlighting the strategic importance and high consumption of these systems.
The intense ground combat and claimed Russian advances in key areas of eastern and southern Ukraine represent a persistent strategic effort by Russia to achieve territorial gains and exert pressure on Ukrainian forces, aiming to change the battlefield reality and potentially improve their position in future negotiations. Два майора reports the Russian MoD claimed the liberation of Aleksandropol and Nova Poltavka. Рыбарь reports Russian forces continued their offensive on the Andriyivka direction, confirming the liberation of Bohartyr and capturing surrounding farms.
The tragic attack on a regular bus near Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast resulting in civilian fatalities and injuries has significant humanitarian implications and will likely be used in Ukrainian strategic messaging to highlight the impact of Russian aggression on civilians.
President Zelenskyy's diplomatic engagements in Rome with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter are strategically important for maintaining international support, securing military and humanitarian aid, and coordinating diplomatic efforts to pressure Russia and work towards a peaceful resolution.
Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Kyslytsya's comments on the Istanbul negotiations and perceived Russian intimidation tactics provide valuable insight into the atmosphere of the talks and Russia's strategic approach to negotiations, which appears to involve strong rhetoric and potentially attempts to exert psychological pressure. Sharing a photo of his deceased nephew adds a human element to the strategic communication.
Russian MoD claims of downing Ukrainian HIMARS projectiles in the South Donetsk direction are strategically aimed at demonstrating the effectiveness of Russian air defense and countering a key Western-provided capability used by Ukraine.
Russian military blogger claims of destroying Ukrainian BMC Kirpi armored vehicles with FPV drones highlight the tactical effectiveness of FPV drones against armored targets and contribute to the Russian narrative of successfully degrading Ukrainian military equipment.
The New York Times article on Russian soldier sentiment offers a potentially significant insight into the human factor in the conflict, suggesting that despite fatigue, a desire for further conquest exists among some Russian soldiers. This could influence strategic assessments of Russian capabilities and willingness to continue fighting.
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico's readiness to support a referendum on lifting anti-Russian sanctions is a notable development that could strategically impact the unity of the EU's sanctions regime and its leverage against Russia.
Marco Rubio's comments on Trump's desire to meet Putin and the potential for the Vatican to host peace talks highlight the ongoing efforts to find a diplomatic path forward and the exploration of various venues and intermediaries. Trump's potential direct involvement remains a key strategic variable.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

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