Sitrep 2025-05-17 17:41:07

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 17, 2025, 17:40 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be characterized by intense ground combat on multiple fronts, particularly in eastern and southern Ukraine, and a significant, widespread Russian aerial offensive utilizing strike drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs). Drone activity persists across numerous Ukrainian oblasts with a predominantly westward trajectory. Diplomatic efforts surrounding potential Istanbul negotiations and broader peace initiatives remain dynamic, with conflicting signals and ongoing discussions. Ukraine reports inflicting significant losses on Russian forces and highlights ongoing defensive actions and the effective use of drone technology. Russia continues to assert tactical gains, reports successful engagements and equipment destruction, and engages in extensive information operations. Internal Russian issues, including military personnel support, legal proceedings, infrastructure problems, and social initiatives, are also reported. A new development involves US sanctions impacting the International Criminal Court, a move with significant international legal and political ramifications.

Significant new updates since the previous report include:

Confirmation of upcoming Putin-Trump Phone Conversation: Alex Parker Returns, Новости Москвы, Colonelcassad, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirm that a phone conversation between Russian President Putin and Donald Trump is being prepared and is expected to take place on May 19th. This indicates continued high-level contact between the US and Russia and potential discussions related to the conflict.
Russian Claims of Modified Aircraft for Counter-Drone Operations: Два майора reports on a claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations. The report describes the aircraft's claimed capabilities, including a radar and a 12-gauge shotgun as armament, and includes images showing the modified aircraft and cockpit display with a tank icon. While presented with some humor and skepticism by the author regarding the effectiveness of the shotgun, it highlights Russian efforts to adapt existing platforms and develop new tactics to counter Ukrainian drone activity. This is presented as an experimental model.
Russian Military Blogger Highlights Russian Casualties in "Suicidal" Assault: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a photo and video with commentary from a small Russian Z-channel author expressing outrage and describing a "suicidal" assault by a group of Russian assault troops on motorcycles with flags. The commentary claims that Ukrainian defenders targeted them with mortars, cluster munitions, and drones, and that none survived. This report from a Russian source provides a candid and critical view of claimed ineffective Russian tactics and significant casualties.
Confirmation of US State Department Account of Rubio-Lavrov Call: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a readout from the US State Department confirming that Secretary Rubio discussed a US-proposed peace plan and called for an immediate ceasefire during a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on May 17th. This contradicts the Russian account and highlights differing diplomatic narratives.
Ukrainian Commander Claims Significant Russian Equipment Losses Since Start of Year: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares reports citing Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, stating that Ukrainian forces have destroyed over 1,000 Russian tanks (1,159) and over 2,500 armored combat vehicles (2,510) since the beginning of the year. This is a significant claim of Russian equipment losses and highlights the intensity of the fighting and the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces in destroying Russian armor. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides a breakdown of tank and armored vehicle losses specifically in the "Khortytsia" operational zone.
German-American Cooperation on Missile Production for Ukraine/Europe: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a plan by the German company Rheinmetall and the American Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS missiles (for HIMARS and MLRS) and Patriot PAC-3 missiles in Europe through a joint venture where Rheinmetall would hold 60% of the shares. This indicates a significant strategic effort by Western partners to increase production of key missile systems for Ukraine and European defense, underscoring long-term military support and adaptation to the conflict's demands.
Russian Military Blogger Shares Video Framing Ukrainian Appeal to Putin: Басурин о главном shares a video with the caption "Plea from Ukraine. Vladimir Vladimirovich, people are asking.... and waiting." The video is not described, but the caption suggests it contains content portraying Ukrainians appealing to Putin, likely for an end to the conflict or other assistance, which is a form of Russian information operation to portray themselves as potential saviors or that there is internal dissent in Ukraine.
French Military Exercises Focusing on Amphibious Operations and Drones: Два майора reports on two large-scale French military exercises, "Polaris-2025" and "Kraken-2025," with international participation, focusing on amphibious assault operations with the involvement of naval and special forces, helicopters, and various types of drones. This highlights French military modernization and adaptation to modern warfare, including the increasing role of drones in amphibious operations, and their cooperation with international partners.
Ukrainian Official Comments on Damage to Kursk Oblast Agriculture: Оперативний ЗСУ shares information attributed to Russian acting governor Khinshtein claiming over 160 agricultural enterprises in Kursk Oblast have been affected by Ukrainian attacks, with damages estimated at 90 billion rubles. The caption sarcastically attributes the damage to "Putin," likely referencing the initiation of the conflict. This highlights the economic impact of Ukrainian cross-border actions and a Ukrainian narrative attributing responsibility for the conflict's consequences to the Russian leadership.
Ukrainian Public Opinion on Negotiations and Truce: РБК-Україна shares results of a "Rating" group poll indicating that 74% of Ukrainians support a 30-day unconditional ceasefire initiative, despite only a quarter believing the Istanbul talks will bring peace. This highlights a strong public desire for de-escalation while maintaining skepticism about the effectiveness of the current negotiation format. Ukrainians believe Ukraine should continue to demonstrate openness to negotiations.
Alleged Internal Conflict within Ukrainian Command: Рыбарь reports, citing political analyst Mikhail Pavliv, on an alleged conflict between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Defense Minister Rustem Umierov regarding the composition and instruction of the Ukrainian delegation for Istanbul talks, claiming the Americans asserted control and bypassed Zelenskyy through Andriy Yermak. This report, from a Russian source, frames the situation as a conflict of interests between different external influences (US and UK) on Ukrainian leadership and suggests potential disruptions to diplomatic efforts.
Russian Military Accident in Annexed Crimea: ASTRA reports a traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck and a civilian car, resulting in injuries to the 18-year-old driver of the civilian vehicle. This highlights potential operational safety issues and the impact of military presence on civilian life in occupied territories.
Dmitry Medvedev's Statement on Negotiations: Alex Parker Returns and Colonelcassad share a tweet from Dmitry Medvedev stating that peace negotiations alone don't always end hostilities and that unsuccessful negotiations can lead to a more terrible stage of war with new weapons and participants. This is a significant statement from a high-level Russian official, potentially signaling a hardening stance on negotiations or a warning of escalation.
Claimed Influx of "Kraken" Battalion into Izium: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims that "Nazis" from the Kraken battalion (stated as prohibited in the Russian Federation) have entered Izium in Kharkiv Oblast, causing some local residents to leave and generating rumors of an impending offensive. This report, from a Russian source, utilizes highly charged language and frames the Ukrainian unit negatively, likely as part of an information operation. The claim of an impending offensive is unverified but suggests potential future activity in the area.
Reported Scandal within Ukrainian Military: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on a claimed scandal within the Ukrainian 47th Brigade, with a battalion commander (allegedly "Magura") submitting a resignation letter due to high losses and dissatisfaction with "incompetent generalship." The report includes a quote criticizing the command's focus on reprimands and investigations over the real situation. This, if true, highlights potential internal challenges and morale issues within some Ukrainian units.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Chasiv Yar, Stupochki, Pokrovsk, Dzerzhynsk, Toretsk, Konstantinovka direction, Krasnolimanskoye direction, Southern Donetsk direction, Kramatorsk): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Олексій Білошицький shares photos of Ukrainian infantry on positions in Toretsk. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА details claimed Russian advances and Ukrainian losses on the Konstantinovka direction, highlighting combined arms tactics. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes on Kramatorsk destroying a transport hub, damaging armored vehicles, and destroying a long-range missile launcher and warehouses. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a claimed "suicidal" Russian assault with significant casualties in a fierce battle. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's claim of significant Russian equipment losses across the front, including in Donetsk Oblast. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides specific figures for Russian tank and armored vehicle losses in the "Khortytsia" operational zone, which includes parts of Donetsk Oblast. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on a claimed scandal within the Ukrainian 47th Brigade, operating in this general area.
Sumy Oblast (Bilopillia): Affected by Russian military activity. РБК-Україна reports Russia attacked a regular bus near Bilopillia, with casualties, now updated to nine fatalities and four injuries. The Sumy community has declared a day of mourning. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes on military targets in Sumy Oblast, including using a FAB-1500 and other means, claiming no civilian casualties, presented as a counter-narrative. Оперативний ЗСУ shares information on claimed economic damage to Kursk Oblast agriculture from Ukrainian attacks, originating from a region bordering Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of Russian UAVs from Kursk Oblast heading towards northern Sumy Oblast.
Kharkiv Oblast (Izium, Balakliia, Bohodukhiv): Affected by Russian military activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes on railway hubs and ammunition depots in Izium, Balakliia, and Bohodukhiv, and destruction of a fuel depot in Balakliia. He also claims strikes on a unit in Izium that arrived as reinforcement and was trained in Britain. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims "Nazis" from the Kraken battalion have entered Izium, causing some local residents to leave and generating rumors of an impending offensive. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of Russian UAVs in northern Kharkiv Oblast heading south and a group in southern Kharkiv Oblast heading north. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's claim of significant Russian equipment losses across the front, including in Kharkiv Oblast.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Voronezh): Affected by military activity. Старше Эдды reports the detention of a migrant in Voronezh for allegedly desecrating a war memorial. Оперативний ЗСУ shares information on claimed economic damage to Kursk Oblast agriculture from Ukrainian attacks, originating from a region bordering Sumy Oblast, citing a Russian source. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of Russian UAVs from Kursk Oblast heading towards northern Sumy Oblast.
Russia (Grozny, Voronezh, Shadrinsk, Kerch, Kuzbass): Various internal issues are reported. Colonelcassad reports on a group of volunteers departing from Grozny airport for the conflict zone. Старше Эдды reports the detention of a migrant in Voronezh for allegedly desecrating a war memorial. Colonelcassad shares photos from the opening of a monument to SVO participants in Shadrinsk. ASTRA reports a traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck and a civilian car, resulting in injuries. An accident at a substation in Kuzbass, Russia, resulted in power outages and the evacuation of people from six mines.
Odesa Oblast: Affected by Russian military activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes on port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast used for NATO arms supplies.
Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast: Affected by Russian military activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes on airfields and air defense warehouses in Kyiv Oblast that were allegedly used for strikes on Russian territory.
Chernihiv Oblast: Affected by Russian military activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes on military objects near the border with Russia and Belarus, command posts, a tank range, and a crossing over the Desna River, which is claimed to be important for transferring forces to the Sumy direction. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports a group of BpLA on the north of Sumy oblast heading towards Chernihiv oblast and a group in northern Chernihiv oblast heading southwest.
Khmelnytsky Oblast (Starokostiantyniv): Affected by Russian military activity. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims a Russian strike on a key airfield in Starokostiantyniv.
Crimea (Perevalne): Two Russian military bloggers report a claimed Ukrainian drone strike on an ammunition depot in Perevalne. ASTRA reports a traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck and a civilian car, resulting in injuries.
Poltava Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Shaheds" in eastern Poltava Oblast heading towards Kharkiv Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial activity. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports "Shaheds" in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading west.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Remains extremely high and widespread. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively tracking numerous drone groups across various oblasts. Russian forces are employing FPV drones and reportedly launching drones from Belgorod and Kursk towards Ukrainian territory. Ukraine has previously reported the use of naval drones and is allegedly targeting Russian soldiers in anti-drone cloaks. Colonelcassad shares a video highlighting the combat work of Russian FPV drone crews. The Ukrainian Air Force reports tracking and engaging enemy UAVs over multiple oblasts, with specific trajectories noted. Два майора reports on a claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations, highlighting Russian efforts to counter drones. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian defenders targeting Russian assault troops on motorcycles with drones. STERNENKO shares an FPV drone feed with a "BOMB ARMED" overlay, highlighting the use of armed FPV drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА highlights claimed Russian sniper-reconnaissance teams destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopters. Colonelcassad is fundraising for consumables needed for training in countering enemy drones. Повітряні Силі ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports new groups of Russian UAVs from Kursk Oblast heading towards northern Sumy Oblast, a group in northern Kharkiv Oblast heading south, a group in southern Kharkiv Oblast heading north, "Shaheds" in eastern Poltava Oblast heading towards Kharkiv Oblast, "Shaheds" in eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading west, and enemy strike UAVs from Belgorod Oblast heading towards southern Sumy and northern Kharkiv Oblasts. Два майора reports on French military exercises including the involvement of various types of drones, highlighting adaptation to modern warfare.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Continued widespread use by Russian forces, including repeated launches targeting Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes in Bilopillia and Myropillia included a FAB-1500 and aviation bombs.
Aviation Activity: Russian tactical aviation is active, launching KABs. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian Aerospace Forces conducted 24 strikes on military objects across Ukraine, including airbases. Два майора reports on a claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations.
Missile Activity: The threat of missile strikes persists. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 claims Russian strikes included the destruction of a long-range missile launcher in Kramatorsk.
Naval Activity: Reports of Russian drones emerging from the Black Sea heading towards Odesa Oblast continue. The Ukrainian Navy reports no Russian warships or missile carriers in the Black or Azov Seas as of 06:00 on May 17, 2025, but notes the presence of a Kalibr carrier in the Mediterranean and significant ship traffic through the Kerch Strait. Russia is reported to be violating the SOLAS convention by disabling automatic identification systems. Два майора reports on French military exercises focusing on amphibious operations with multiple international participants, indicating adaptation to modern naval warfare tactics.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively tracking and engaging numerous Russian drone groups across various oblasts. Russian air defense systems are claiming interceptions of Ukrainian UAVs over border regions. Два майора reports on a claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations with a 12-gauge shotgun as armament, highlighting Russian efforts to counter drones. Colonelcassad is fundraising for consumables needed for training in countering enemy drones. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА highlights claimed Russian sniper-reconnaissance teams destroying Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" hexacopters.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Intense ground combat implies ongoing artillery fire from both sides. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian defenders targeting Russian assault troops on motorcycles with mortars and cluster munitions. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА highlights the coordinated use of artillery by the Russian 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Negotiations and Peace Talks: Discussions regarding potential negotiations in Istanbul are ongoing, marked by delays and uncertainty. The trilateral meeting between Turkey, the US, and Ukraine has concluded. Disagreements persist regarding the format and participation in any subsequent Russia-Ukraine direct negotiations. Ukraine expresses readiness for peace, an unconditional ceasefire, and high-level meetings, while noting Putin's absence from Istanbul. РБК-Україна reports Ukrainian public opinion shows strong support for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Рыбарь reports on an alleged conflict between Zelenskyy and Umierov regarding the negotiation delegation, attributing it to external influence. Alex Parker Returns, Новости Москвы, Colonelcassad, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirm the upcoming Putin-Trump phone conversation on May 19th. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares the US State Department's account of the Rubio-Lavrov call, emphasizing a US peace plan and call for immediate ceasefire, highlighting differing narratives. Dmitry Medvedev's statement on negotiations potentially leading to a "more terrible stage" is a significant development.
International Support for Ukraine: International military exercises are ongoing. Discussions about future EU sanctions packages against Russia continue. Western partners are engaging in diplomatic discussions with Ukraine, including the recent trilateral meeting in Istanbul. The alleged arson incident in the UK involving a Ukrainian citizen could potentially impact bilateral relations and international perceptions. Concerns within the EU about potential opposition to supporting Kyiv are reported. Canada is engaging with Ukraine on the issue of prisoners of war. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a plan by Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS and Patriot missiles in Europe, indicating significant long-term military support. Два майора reports on French military exercises with multiple international participants, highlighting NATO cooperation.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Direct diplomatic exchanges are anticipated in Istanbul, although the format is disputed. Information operations regarding the negotiations are ongoing. Басурин о главном shares a video likely intended to portray Ukrainians appealing to Putin.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: High-level officials are participating in diplomatic negotiations. Measures to ensure public order in Kyiv are being implemented. Efforts to support veterans and address mental health are underway. Legal actions against illegal land use are being pursued. Рыбарь reports on an alleged internal conflict within the Ukrainian command regarding negotiations. Операция Z: Военкоры Руссной Весны reports on a claimed scandal within the Ukrainian 47th Brigade.
Internal Russian Politics and Society: High-level military command changes have occurred. Internal legal and security issues are present, including corruption accusations and the detention of alleged FSB agents. Domestic initiatives like the "Time of Heroes" program and proposed "demographic week" reflect internal priorities. Infrastructure vulnerabilities are highlighted by the Kuzbass accident. Information operations are ongoing. Cultural developments like the re-creation of the Stalin bas-relief are noted. Geopolitical engagements with Belarus, Afghanistan, and reportedly Central Asian countries are being pursued. Economic discussions regarding sanctions and energy exports are occurring. Старше Эдды reports the detention of a migrant in Voronezh for allegedly desecrating a war memorial.
US Stance on Negotiations: The US participated in the trilateral meeting in Istanbul. The level of US participation in direct Russia-Ukraine talks is a point of contention. Trump expresses interest in meeting Putin. The reported US sanctions against the ICC have significant international legal and political implications. Alex Parker Returns, Новости Москвы, Colonelcassad, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirm the upcoming Putin-Trump phone conversation on May 19th. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares the US State Department's account of the Rubio-Lavrov call, emphasizing a US peace plan and call for immediate ceasefire.
Turkish Role in Negotiations: Turkey hosted the trilateral meeting and is facilitating potential Russia-Ukraine talks, although their role in direct negotiations is disputed by Russia.
Speculation on Trump's Role: Speculation regarding a Trump-Putin meeting continues, with Trump himself confirming his desire to meet. Alex Parker Returns, Новости Москвы, Colonelcassad, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 confirm the upcoming Putin-Trump phone conversation on May 19th.
Ukraine-UK Relations: The alleged arson incident in the UK involving a Ukrainian citizen is a new, potentially sensitive development.
NATO Development: NATO members are participating in military exercises near Russia. Два майора reports on French military exercises with multiple international participants.
EU Politics: Discussions on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia are underway. Concerns within the EU about potential opposition to supporting Kyiv are reported. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a plan by German company Rheinmetall and American Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS and Patriot missiles in Europe, highlighting EU involvement in long-term military support.
Russia-Belarus Relations: High-level military and political talks are occurring to strengthen the common defense space and prepare for joint exercises.
Russia-Afghanistan Relations: Reconsideration of the ban on the Taliban and consideration of the Afghan Ambassador's candidacy indicate potential normalization of relations.
Russia-Central Asia Relations: The reported US program to train community leaders in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan highlights external influence in a region of strategic importance to Russia.
North Korea: Kim Jong Un's visit to an aviation regiment and emphasis on war preparedness is reported. Kim Jong Un inspected large-scale tactical exercises, emphasizing military education and adaptation to modern warfare. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports, citing Reuters, that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called on the army to better "prepare for war".

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

High-Level Military Personnel Changes: A change in the Commander of the Central Military District has occurred.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces are engaged in intense ground combat, claiming tactical successes. They continue to utilize KABs and drones extensively and are developing new small arms. Claims of eliminating Ukrainian equipment are made. Improvised armor is being used to enhance vehicle protection against FPV drones. An accident at a substation in Kuzbass highlights potential infrastructure vulnerabilities impacting industrial activity. The falling of a Russian aviation bomb in occupied territory indicates potential issues with munitions. Два майора reports on a claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a claimed "suicidal" Russian assault with significant casualties.
Casualty Reports: Previously reported civilian and military casualties. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники report that each fourth deceased Russian soldier signed a contract after the start of the conflict. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a claimed "suicidal" Russian assault with significant casualties. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 and РБК-Україна report Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's claim of significant Russian equipment losses since the start of the year.
Information Operations and Propaganda: Russian sources are actively engaged in information operations to shape narratives about the conflict, military effectiveness, leadership changes, alleged Ukrainian actions (mine usage, resistance to mobilization), and the perceived stance of Western leaders on negotiations. The re-creation of the Stalin bas-relief is a cultural act with propaganda implications. The reported US sanctions against the ICC are framed negatively by Russian sources. Басурин о главном shares a video likely intended to portray Ukrainians appealing to Putin. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 frames the entry of Kraken battalion into Izium negatively. Kotsnews shares satirical commentary about the appearance of the Ukrainian delegation, aiming to mock them. Два майора reports on claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations, presented with some humor/skepticism by the author.
Resource Mobilization: Efforts to mobilize resources for the military through non-governmental channels continue. The "Time of Heroes" program aims to integrate veterans into leadership roles. Colonelcassad is fundraising for consumables needed for training in countering enemy drones.
Mine Clearing: Mine clearing operations are ongoing.
Civilian Impact: Previously reported on the impact of the conflict on civilians. The Kuzbass accident impacted residents through power outages. ASTRA reports a traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck and a civilian car, resulting in injuries.
Defense Planning: The Russian Defense Plan has been extended to 2027. Strengthening the common defense space with Belarus is a priority.
Social Notes: A proposal for a "demographic week" is being considered. Старше Эдды reports the detention of a migrant in Voronezh for allegedly desecrating a war memorial, highlighting social tensions.
Law Enforcement and Criminal Activity: Internal legal and security issues are present, including corruption accusations and the detention of alleged FSB agents. The incident in Kyiv involving a minibus and mobilized individuals highlights challenges related to mobilization and potential resistance. ASTRA reports a traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck and a civilian car. Старше Эдды reports the detention of a migrant in Voronezh for allegedly desecrating a war memorial.
Infrastructure: An accident at a substation in Kuzbass highlights vulnerabilities in Russian energy infrastructure impacting industrial activity and civilian life.
Culture and Symbolism: The re-creation of the Stalin bas-relief in the Moscow metro is a significant cultural and political act. Старше Эдды reports the detention of a migrant in Voronezh for allegedly desecrating a war memorial, which involves the desecration of a war memorial.
Economic Issues: The impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and efforts to find new economic partners (India) are noted. Discussions on potential new EU sanctions on energy exports are occurring. Оперативний ЗСУ shares information on claimed economic damage to Kursk Oblast agriculture from Ukrainian attacks.
Geopolitical Engagements: Diplomatic efforts with Belarus, Afghanistan, and engagement in Central Asia are noted. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports, citing Reuters, that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called on the army to better "prepare for war".
Recruitment: The Rybаr report on the Kyiv minibus incident highlights challenges and resistance related to mobilization efforts in Ukraine. The report on contract soldier casualties provides data on recruitment patterns. Colonelcassad reports on a group of volunteers departing from Grozny airport for the conflict zone after special training.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Ukraine): International support continues through diplomatic engagement, military exercises, and aid provisions (though limitations on some advanced weapons exist). Ukraine is enhancing existing military systems. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a plan by Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS and Patriot missiles in Europe, indicating long-term international military support. Colonelcassad is fundraising for consumables needed for training in countering enemy drones, highlighting the ongoing adaptation to tactical challenges and the role of private initiatives in supporting military training. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 reports Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's claim of significant Russian equipment losses since the start of the year, which highlights the need for continued support to inflict such losses.
Military Support (Russia): Efforts to provide military support through non-governmental channels continue. Development of new small arms variants is ongoing. Improvised armor is being used to enhance vehicle protection. Colonelcassad is fundraising for consumables needed for training in countering enemy drones.
Civilian Support (Ukraine): Support through international organizations is being sought. Efforts to address mental health and provide support for veterans and their families are underway. Legal actions are being taken to protect communal assets. РБК-Україна reports on the bus attack near Bilopillia resulting in civilian casualties.
Civilian Support (Russia): Humanitarian efforts involving Russian citizens in other conflicts are noted. The "Time of Heroes" program supports veterans. Social initiatives like the proposed "demographic week" are being considered. ASTRA reports a traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck and a civilian car, resulting in injuries to a civilian.
Veterans Support (Ukraine): Adaptive sports training programs are being offered.
Veterans Support (Russia): The "Time of Heroes" program aims to train veterans for leadership roles.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Ukraine: Actively defending against intense Russian assaults across multiple fronts, reporting significant losses inflicted on the enemy. Utilizing drones for various purposes, including reconnaissance, targeting, taking prisoners, and engaging in close-quarters combat (fiber-optic drones, FPV drones). Employing tactics including mine warfare, remote mining, and establishing reserve defensive lines. Actively engaged in air defense to counter widespread Russian aerial attacks. Seeking continued international military and political support. Experiencing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from Russian shelling and aerial attacks, including the tragic bus attack in Sumy Oblast. Experiencing challenges related to mobilization and potential resistance. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian defenders targeting Russian assault troops on motorcycles with mortars, cluster munitions, and drones. STERNENKO shares an FPV drone feed with a "BOMB ARMED" overlay, highlighting the use of armed FPV drones. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 and РБК-Україна report Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's claim of significant Russian equipment losses since the start of the year, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces in destroying Russian armor. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports on a claimed scandal within the Ukrainian 47th Brigade, highlighting potential internal challenges.
Russia: Conducting intense ground assaults across multiple fronts, claiming tactical successes and liberation of settlements. Employing extensive air strikes with guided bombs, artillery, and MLRS. Utilizing a high number of kamikaze and other types of drones, including Lancet loitering munitions, for various tactical engagements. Undergoing changes in high-level command structure. Relying in part on public donations for equipment. Utilizing information operations as a key tactic. Conducting mine clearing operations and developing counter-mine measures. Developing and introducing new small arms variants. Engaging in diplomatic efforts. Experiencing casualties. Utilizing improvised armor on vehicles. Operating with Belarus to strengthen common defense. Два майора reports on a claimed deep modernization of the Yak-52 training aircraft into a Як-52Б2 modification designed for counter-drone operations, highlighting adaptation of tactics and technology. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on a claimed "suicidal" Russian assault with significant casualties, highlighting potential ineffective tactics. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА details claimed Russian advances and Ukrainian losses on the Konstantinovka direction, emphasizing combined arms tactics. Colonelcassad reports on a group of volunteers departing from Grozny airport for the conflict zone after special training, indicating ongoing personnel acquisition and training.
Third-Party Involvement: Turkey is playing a facilitating role in potential negotiations. The US is engaging in diplomatic efforts, including the trilateral meeting and separate discussions with the Russian delegation. Speculation continues regarding former US President Trump's potential involvement, with a phone conversation confirmed. NATO members are participating in military exercises and providing aid. A Ukrainian citizen is involved in a criminal investigation in the UK. Canada is engaging with Ukraine on the issue of prisoners of war. The reported US sanctions against the ICC are a significant action impacting an international body. Geopolitical engagements in Central Asia, Afghanistan, and the BRICS expansion are noted. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on a plan by Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS and Patriot missiles in Europe, indicating long-term international military support. Два майора reports on French military exercises with multiple international participants. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports, citing Reuters, that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called on the army to better "prepare for war".

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The upcoming phone conversation between Russian President Putin and Donald Trump on May 19th is a significant strategic development, indicating direct high-level contact between the US and Russia which could influence the diplomatic trajectory of the conflict.
Russian efforts to modernize platforms for counter-drone operations, such as the claimed Як-52Б2 modification, highlight a strategic adaptation to the prevalent use of drones by Ukrainian forces and a recognition of the need to counter this threat.
Reports from a Russian source of a "suicidal" Russian assault with significant casualties, while unverified, can have strategic implications for understanding the cost and potential effectiveness of certain Russian tactics and could contribute to internal Russian discourse regarding military strategy and leadership.
The US State Department's account of the Rubio-Lavrov call, emphasizing a US peace plan and call for an immediate ceasefire, underscores the continued US diplomatic engagement and its distinct position on the conflict, which is strategically relevant for understanding the broader international context and potential diplomatic initiatives.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi's claim of significant Russian equipment losses since the start of the year, if accurate, is a crucial strategic indicator of the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces and the rate of attrition of Russian military capabilities, impacting Russia's ability to sustain offensive operations and highlighting the need for continued international military support for Ukraine.
The plan by Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin to establish large-scale production of ATACMS and Patriot missiles in Europe is a major strategic development aimed at ensuring a sustained supply of key Western missile systems to Ukraine and bolstering European defense capabilities in the long term.
Russian information operations, such as the video shared by Басурин о главнoм framing a Ukrainian appeal to Putin, are strategically aimed at influencing narratives, portraying a specific image of the conflict, and potentially sowing dissent within Ukraine.
French military exercises focusing on amphibious operations with international participation highlight the ongoing adaptation of NATO tactics to modern warfare and the strategic importance placed on expeditionary capabilities, which could be relevant in the broader European security context.
The Ukrainian official's comments on the estimated economic damage to Kursk Oblast agriculture from Ukrainian attacks highlight the strategic impact of Ukrainian cross-border actions on the Russian economy and can be used in strategic messaging by Ukraine to emphasize the costs of the conflict for Russia.
Ukrainian public opinion showing strong support for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, as indicated by the "Rating" poll, is strategically relevant for understanding internal Ukrainian sentiment regarding de-escalation and could influence political and diplomatic decisions related to peace initiatives, despite skepticism about the current negotiation format.
The report of an alleged internal conflict within the Ukrainian command regarding negotiations, while from a Russian source and potentially part of an information operation, points to the strategic complexities and potential internal dynamics within the Ukrainian leadership during high-level diplomatic engagements.
The traffic accident in annexed Kerch, Crimea, involving a Russian military truck, while seemingly a localized incident, can have broader strategic implications by highlighting the ongoing military presence in occupied territories, potential operational safety issues, and the impact of military activity on civilian life, which can be leveraged in information operations by opposing sides.
Dmitry Medvedev's statement on negotiations potentially leading to escalation is a significant strategic communication from a high-level Russian official, potentially intended to signal a hardening of Russia's position, deter certain actions from the opposing side, or prepare for potential future escalation if diplomatic efforts do not yield outcomes favorable to Russia.
The claimed influx of the "Kraken" battalion into Izium and rumors of an impending offensive, as reported by a Russian source, could be strategically intended to generate concern and fear among the local population or to preemptively frame potential future Ukrainian military activity in the area.
The reported scandal within the Ukrainian 47th Brigade, if accurate, highlights potential internal challenges related to command effectiveness, troop morale, and casualty rates within some Ukrainian units, which are strategically important factors impacting overall military capability and sustainability.
The continued widespread and dynamic Russian drone activity across multiple Ukrainian oblasts remains a significant strategic challenge for Ukraine, necessitating the sustained operation and adaptation of air defense systems across the entire country and suggesting Russian efforts to maintain pressure, gather intelligence, or target infrastructure beyond the immediate front lines.
The intense ground combat and claimed Russian advances in key areas of eastern and southern Ukraine represent a persistent strategic effort by Russia to achieve territorial gains and exert pressure on Ukrainian forces, aiming to change the battlefield reality and potentially improve their position in future negotiations.
The tragic attack on a regular bus near Bilopillia in Sumy Oblast resulting in civilian fatalities and injuries has significant humanitarian implications and will likely be used in Ukrainian strategic messaging to highlight the impact of Russian aggression on civilians.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report