Sitrep 2025-05-13 17:56:42

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 13, 2025, 17:56 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational landscape remains highly active, with intense ground combat continuing to be the dominant feature, especially in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Russian aerial and missile activity persists, with reports of guided aerial bomb (KAB) launches and continued drone usage across various regions of Ukraine and into Russian border areas. Diplomatic efforts centered on potential negotiations in Istanbul continue to generate conflicting information, with indications of high-level US involvement and Ukrainian readiness for direct talks, while Russian statements reiterate established positions. Internal Russian issues, including security concerns and social dynamics, are also highlighted. Ukraine continues efforts to bolster its defense capabilities and address domestic matters.

Significant updates from the latest messages include:

Continued Intense Fighting and Russian Advances (Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides Russian accounts of tactical successes in Kharkiv Oblast, claiming destruction of Ukrainian assets near Lyptsi and clearing houses and pushing back Ukrainian forces near Vovchansk. Рыбарь reports Russian advances in the Vremivsky direction, claiming control over most of Voinivka and expansion of the control zone near Novoselivka-Rivnopil. Рыбарь also indicates ongoing clashes near Shevchenko. Сливочный каприз reports Russian advances west of Makeevka (Luhansk direction). These Russian sources collectively paint a picture of continued offensive pressure and localized gains in key areas. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares archived footage of Ukrainian defense during a breakthrough from encirclement near Shumy on the Toretsk direction, highlighting past intense combat. Олексій Білошицький shares a video and caption detailing intense ongoing drone activity by Ukrainian forces in Toretsk, inflicting casualties on Russian troops. This confirms persistent, close-quarters fighting in the Toretsk area with significant Ukrainian drone effectiveness.
Continued Russian Aerial and Drone Activity: The Ukrainian Air Force previously reported repeated launches of KABs towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. This indicates continued use of these destructive guided munitions. Numerous reports from the past 6-24 hours detail widespread Russian drone activity across many Ukrainian oblasts, including Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kyiv, Kherson, and Kirovohrad. Warnings have been issued for various cities, indicating ongoing threats to civilian and military infrastructure. Два майора reports alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on civilians and emergency services in Belgorod Oblast, resulting in casualties and damage, while also highlighting Russian electronic warfare (EW) and air defense efforts. This indicates continued cross-border drone activity and the impact on Russian border regions.
Diplomatic Developments and Negotiation Stances: Reports confirm that the Russian delegation will be in Istanbul on May 15th, awaiting the Ukrainian side, but the composition is not yet revealed. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 cites US Special Envoy Kellogg stating that the US is discussing the placement of forces from the UK, France, Germany, and Poland west of the Dnipro River within the framework of a Ukrainian settlement. This is a highly significant and potentially escalatory proposal being discussed at a diplomatic level. Two Majora provides a summary of negotiation-related messages, highlighting the US and Ukraine raising the level of representation and Trump's hinted involvement. Alex Parker Returns raises the possibility of Roman Abramovich being involved in the Istanbul negotiations, framing it as a "dangerous moment." WarGonzo suggests publicly demanding the release of hostages from Kursk Oblast before any peace talks, implying a potential leverage point. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports, citing Ukrainian GUR and FT, that Russia is seriously preparing for a large-scale offensive and transferring forces to key points on the front line, even as negotiation talks are being discussed. This highlights the potential disconnect between diplomatic posturing and military preparations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video message from Zelenskyy confirming his team is actively preparing for a visit to Turkey and has presented Ukraine's position to partners, emphasizing the need for a lasting and unconditional ceasefire and direct talks with Putin, and noting US and Chinese support for a ceasefire and negotiations.
Alleged Fake News and Information Operations: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS warns about a fake post on X alleging a Hungarian military operation to retake Zakarpattia, accompanied by videos of military convoys presented as evidence. This highlights ongoing information operations aimed at creating panic and distrust. Kotsnews shares a historical narrative about Admiral Kasatonov and the Black Sea Fleet, likely for internal Russian propaganda purposes on Black Sea Fleet Day. Старше Эдды reports on the calculated cost of the recent "short war" with Houthis for the US, a Russian source highlighting the financial costs of US military interventions. Два майора reports on an appeal against the conviction of Russian General Popov by the administration of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, an unusual development in a high-profile case. НгП раZVедка shares a video claiming Ukrainian military personnel are committing war crimes by breaking into civilian homes near Bohater, accompanying the video with accusatory text and portraying Ukrainian forces negatively. This is a clear information operation utilizing potentially unverified footage to support a specific narrative. MoD Russia shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman discussing his surrender with a comrade, likely used for propaganda purposes to encourage surrender.
Ukrainian Readiness for Reconstruction: Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that Ukraine has completed all necessary procedures for the launch of the American-Ukrainian Reconstruction Fund, and the relevant documents have been handed over to the US Charge d'Affaires. This indicates concrete steps towards post-conflict recovery planning and securing international financial support.
Russian Internal Issues: Fighterbomber shares photos of the "Rus" aerobatic team in Arkhangelsk, a domestic event likely for morale or public relations. Новости Москвы reports on planned escalator closures in the Moscow metro for repair, a domestic infrastructure issue. Colonelcassad is collecting funds for motorcycles, indicating ongoing volunteer support for Russian forces. Kotsnews shares a poll suggesting public sentiment about sanctioning historical routes associated with the West, reflecting internal narratives and potential targets of animosity.
Ukrainian Drone Development/Claims: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on an unconfirmed claim of a massive launch of Ukrainian "Chaklun" UAVs with a 20kg warhead. This suggests potential development or deployment of larger, more impactful Ukrainian drones. STERNENKO shares a video showcasing the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones against Russian infantry, emphasizing their lethality and lack of escape options. This highlights Ukrainian tactical drone capabilities.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Toretsk, Druzhkivka community, Konstantinovka direction, Soledar direction, Donetsk Direction, Pokrovsk direction, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Siversk, Bohater, Kostiantynivka, Dzerzhinsk, Krymske, Horlivka (Gorlovka), Shumy): Remains the primary focus of intense ground combat. Олексій Білошицький reports intense ongoing combat in Toretsk with effective Ukrainian drone use and casualties inflicted on Russian forces. The head of the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration announced a decision on the forced evacuation of 79 children from 8 settlements in the Druzhkivka community. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming successful Russian drone strikes on the Soledar direction and the Donetsk Direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video from the Third Assault Brigade claiming successful strikes and destruction of Russian vehicles, trucks, a light armored vehicle, a ground robotic platform, and an ammunition depot on the Donetsk direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides a Russian account of forces moving closer to Romanovka on the Konstantinovka direction and repelling a counterattack. НгП раZVедка shares a video claiming Ukrainian military are breaking into civilian homes near Bohater, suggesting fighting in this area. Сливочный каприз reports positional fighting near Horlivka (Gorlovka), specifically in the Dzerzhinsk-Krymske area, with a Russian advance north of Dzerzhinsk. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares archived footage of Ukrainian defense during a breakthrough from encirclement near Shumy on the Toretsk direction. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) claims a major Russian offensive may have begun in Donbas. Рыбарь reports Russian advances and claims control over most of Voinivka and expansion of the control zone near Novoselivka-Rivnopil in the Vremivsky direction, indicating ongoing combat in these settlements.
Kharkiv Oblast (Lyptsi, Vovchansk): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 provides Russian accounts of destroying Ukrainian assault groups, a tank, pick-ups, and communication assets near Lyptsi, and clearing houses and pushing back Ukrainian forces near Vovchansk. This suggests significant ground and aerial activity in these areas. The Ukrainian Air Force previously reported a threat of enemy strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast. ASTRA reports two fatalities and six injuries from Russian strikes in Kupyansk and Nechvolodivka.
Mykolaiv Oblast (South Mykolaiv, Voznesensk, Bereznehuvate, Bashtanka, Snihurivka, Nova Odesa, Pivdennoukrainsk, Yelants, Pervomaisk, Nechayane, Parutyne, Arbuzynka, Rybakivka, Stepove, Ochakiv): The Ukrainian Air Force has issued warnings about enemy strike UAVs in various parts of the oblast, with detailed tracking showing numerous drone groups moving in different directions, including towards Voznesensk and potentially towards Pivdennoukrainsk, Yelants, Pervomaisk, and other settlements. This indicates continued widespread Russian drone activity in the southern part of the oblast.
Odesa Oblast (Chornomorsk, Pivdenne, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Maryanivka, Serhiivka, Zatoka, Karolino-Buhaz, Tatarbunary, Illichivsk): The Ukrainian Air Force reports new groups of enemy strike UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards coastal areas and inland. Nikolaevskiy Vanyok provides detailed tracking of numerous drone groups in the Black Sea and heading towards various settlements in Odesa Oblast, including Chornomorske, Pivdenne, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Maryanivka, Serhiivka, Zatoka, Karolino-Buhaz, and Tatarbunary. Военкор Котенок reports an explosion in the port of Illichivsk, citing reports of an Iskander arrival and Orlan drone activity. This indicates a new focus of Russian drone activity towards key port cities and coastal areas in Odesa Oblast and confirmed missile strikes on port infrastructure.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) / Sumy Oblast (Ukraine Border) (Bilovody, Loknya, Vodolagi, Sumy Oblast, Khomutovka, Rylsk, Zvannoye, Гуево): Russian sources previously claimed Ukrainian units are suffering colossal losses in the areas of Bilovody, Loknya, and Vodolagi in Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad previously claimed Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian assets in Sumy Oblast. Два майора reports alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on a civilian vehicle in Khomutovka, injuring a child, and on civilians and emergency services in Belgorod Oblast, resulting in casualties and damage. Рыбарь claims a civilian died in Zvannoye and two were injured during evacuation from Guyevo due to alleged Ukrainian attacks, and a drone destroyed a monument in Belovsky district. The Ukrainian Air Force previously reported launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation towards Sumy Oblast.
Chernihiv Oblast: Colonelcassad previously claimed Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian strongpoint and a communication tower with EW equipment in Chernihiv Oblast.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: An air raid alarm was previously issued for the entire oblast due to the threat of ballistic missile application. Later, the ballistic missile threat was lifted. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared a video about a "underground school" nearing completion in Zaporizhzhia. Два майора reports on an appeal against the conviction of Russian General Popov by the administration of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Kyiv City: A rocket danger air raid alarm was previously issued due to the takeoff of MiG-31K aircraft and later lifted.
Republic of Crimea: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that one Ukrainian aircraft-type UAV was destroyed by air defense over the Republic of Crimea.
Tambov (Russia): A tree was planted in honor of missing military personnel from military unit 28760 of the 25th Assault Brigade.
Moscow Oblast (Russia): Новости Москвы shares a video of the demolition of the Snezhe.Com complex and reports on planned escalator closures in the Moscow metro.
Gaza: РБК-Україна reports that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced the completion of the military operation in Gaza in the coming days.
Red Sea/Yemen (Houthis): Старше Эдды reports on the cost of the US conflict with Houthis.
Zakarpattia Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS warns about alleged fake news regarding a Hungarian military operation in this region.
Khmelnytskyi Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force warns of a threat of enemy strike UAVs from the east. Nikolaevskiy Vanyok provides detailed tracking of drone groups crossing into Khmelnytskyi Oblast. This indicates Russian drone activity extending into central Ukraine.
Kirovohrad Oblast: Nikolaevskiy Vanyok previously reported one drone past Kazanka into Kirovohrad Oblast.
Russia (Belgorod Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Novaya Zburyevka in Kherson Oblast, Obninsk, Khabarovsk Krai, Chita, Капустин Яр, Perm, Makhachkala, Anapa): Locations of alleged Ukrainian attacks, internal incidents, and military activities. Два майора reports alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on civilians and emergency services in Belgorod Oblast, resulting in casualties and damage. Fighterbomber shares photos of the "Rus" aerobatic team in Arkhangelsk. Новости Москвы reports on planned escalator closures in the Moscow metro. Colonelcassad is collecting funds for motorcycles. Kotsnews shares a poll suggesting public sentiment about sanctioning historical routes associated with the West.
Poland (Warsaw): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны previously reported Polish Prime Minister Tusk claims Russian special services organized the arson of a shopping center in Warsaw.
Sudan (Port Sudan): Рыбарь previously reported on alleged UAV attacks on a Russian military base under construction, fuel depots, and the airport here.
Luhansk Oblast (Makeevka): Сливочный каприз claims Russian advances west of Makeevka.
Bryansk Oblast (Suzemka-Strachovo area): AV Bogomaz previously reported two civilians injured by a remote explosive device on a road.
Kamensk (Rostov Oblast): TASS previously reported that means of electronic warfare repelled a UAV attack on Kamensk.
Vremivsky direction (Volnovakha, Novoselivka, Rivnopil, Shevchenko, Voinivka): Рыбарь reports Russian advances and claims control over most of Voinivka and expansion of the control zone near Novoselivka-Rivnopil, indicating ongoing combat in these settlements. Рыбарь also indicates ongoing clashes near Shevchenko.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Continued intense drone warfare on both sides is a defining feature of the conflict. The latest messages and recent reports confirm significant and widespread Russian drone activity across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, with warnings issued for key cities and coastal areas, and detailed tracking showing numerous drone groups moving in multiple directions. Два майора reports alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on civilians and emergency services in Belgorod Oblast, highlighting cross-border drone activity and the impact on Russian border regions. Два майора also highlights Russian electronic warfare (EW) and air defense efforts in countering Ukrainian drones. Олексій Білошицький reports intense ongoing drone activity by Ukrainian forces in Toretsk, inflicting casualties on Russian troops. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports on an unconfirmed claim of a massive launch of Ukrainian "Chaklun" UAVs with a 20kg warhead, suggesting potential development or deployment of larger, more impactful Ukrainian drones. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 previously claimed Ukrainian SSO destroyed a Russian UAV crew in Hola Prystan (Kherson Oblast). STERNENKO shares a video showcasing the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones against Russian infantry, emphasizing their lethality. Colonelcassad previously claimed Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian assets in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts with drones. Colonelcassad previously shared photos allegedly of captured Ukrainian drones as trophies. Воин DV previously claimed Russian drone operators destroyed Ukrainian drone control points and struck militants in the Orikhiv area. The Ukrainian Air Force continues to issue warnings about enemy strike UAVs. Nikolaevskiy Vanyok provides detailed tracking of numerous drone groups across many oblasts. Военкор Котенок reports a reconnaissance "Orlan" drone being spotted before a strike in the port of Illichivsk. Привид Хортиці shares a video claiming successful and "merciless" Ukrainian drone strikes. ASTRA reports alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on civilians and emergency services in Belgorod Oblast.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): The Ukrainian Air Force previously reported repeated launches of KABs by enemy tactical aviation towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. This indicates continued use of these destructive guided munitions.
Missile Activity: Speed targets were previously reported originating from the Black Sea towards Chornomorsk (Odessa Oblast), with confirmed explosions in Odessa and reports of a strike in the port area. The Ukrainian Air Force previously issued a ballistic missile threat warning for southern Ukraine and Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and later reported the lifting of the threat. A rocket danger air raid alarm was previously issued across Ukraine due to the takeoff of MiG-31K aircraft and later lifted. Военкор Котенок reports an explosion in the port of Illichivsk, citing reports of an Iskander arrival. This confirms missile strikes on key port infrastructure.
Aviation Activity: A rocket danger air raid alarm was previously issued across Ukraine due to the takeoff of MiG-31K aircraft and later lifted. Fighterbomber shares photos of the "Rus" aerobatic team in Arkhangelsk, a domestic event. The Ukrainian Air Force previously reported activity of Russian tactical aviation in the southeastern direction with a threat of aerial guided munitions for frontline regions and missile danger for Sumy, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
Naval Activity: Speed targets were previously reported originating from the Black Sea towards Chornomorsk (Odessa Oblast). The Ukrainian Air Force reports new groups of enemy strike UAVs in the Black Sea heading towards coastal areas. Nikolaevskiy Vanyok provides detailed tracking of numerous drone groups in the Black Sea and heading towards various settlements in Odesa Oblast. Военкор Котенок reports an explosion in the port of Illichivsk.
Air Defense Activity: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that three Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed by air defense: two over Belgorod Oblast and one over the Republic of Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force previously reported the lifting and re-issuing of a threat of strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast. Два майора highlights Russian electronic warfare (EW) and air defense efforts in countering Ukrainian drones in Belgorod Oblast.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: TАСС, citing the administration of the DNR head and government, previously reports that Ukrainian forces shelled the DNR 24 times in the past day, resulting in the death of one civilian. Colonelcassad previously, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, claimed extensive Ukrainian shelling during a claimed ceasefire period.
Reconnaissance Activity: Военкор Котенок reports a reconnaissance "Orlan" drone being spotted before a strike in the port of Illichivsk.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: The Russian delegation will be in Istanbul on May 15th, awaiting the Ukrainian side, but the composition is not yet revealed. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 cites US Special Envoy Kellogg stating that the US is discussing the placement of forces from the UK, France, Germany, and Poland west of the Dnipro River within the framework of a Ukrainian settlement. This is a highly significant and potentially escalatory proposal. Two Majora provides a summary of negotiation-related messages, highlighting the US and Ukraine raising the level of representation and Trump's hinted involvement. Alex Parker Returns raises the possibility of Roman Abramovich being involved in the Istanbul negotiations, framing it as a "dangerous moment." WarGonzo suggests publicly demanding the release of hostages from Kursk Oblast before any peace talks. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video message from Zelenskyy confirming his team is actively preparing for a visit to Turkey and has presented Ukraine's position to partners, emphasizing the need for a lasting and unconditional ceasefire and direct talks with Putin, and noting US and Chinese support for a ceasefire and negotiations. РБК-Україна previously reported that US Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, stated that Putin has been warned that Russia faces the harshest sanctions if no progress is made. TASS reports that the Russian delegation will be in Istanbul on May 15th and will wait for the Ukrainian side.
International Support for Ukraine: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 cites US Special Envoy Kellogg stating that the US is discussing the placement of forces from the UK, France, Germany, and Poland west of the Dnipro River. РБК-Україна previously reported that US Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, stated that Putin has been warned that Russia faces the harshest sanctions if no progress is made. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that Ukraine has completed all necessary procedures for the launch of the American-Ukrainian Reconstruction Fund, and the relevant documents have been handed over to the US Charge d'Affaires. This indicates concrete steps towards post-conflict recovery planning and securing international financial support. The Ukrainian Air Force previously noted European leaders making strong statements and steps.
Russia-Poland Relations: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны previously reported Polish Prime Minister Tusk claims Russian special services organized the arson of a shopping center in Warsaw.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: The Russian delegation will be in Istanbul on May 15th, awaiting the Ukrainian side. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video message from Zelenskyy confirming his team is actively preparing for a visit to Turkey and is ready for direct talks with Putin. TASS reports that the Russian delegation will be in Istanbul on May 15th and will wait for the Ukrainian side. Alex Parker Returns raises the possibility of Roman Abramovich's involvement. Два майора provides a summary of negotiation-related messages, highlighting the US and Ukraine raising the level of representation. WarGonzo suggests publicly demanding the release of hostages from Kursk Oblast before any peace talks.
Russian Internal Politics: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on an appeal against the conviction of Russian General Popov by the administration of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Fighterbomber shares photos of the "Rus" aerobatic team in Arkhangelsk, a domestic event. Новости Москвы reports on planned escalator closures in the Moscow metro for repair, a domestic infrastructure issue. Colonelcassad is collecting funds for motorcycles, indicating ongoing volunteer support for Russian forces. Kotsnews shares a historical narrative about Admiral Kasatonov and the Black Sea Fleet, likely for internal Russian propaganda purposes on Black Sea Fleet Day. Kotsnews shares a poll suggesting public sentiment about sanctioning historical routes associated with the West, reflecting internal narratives and potential targets of animosity. Старше Эдды reports on the calculated cost of the recent "short war" with Houthis for the US, a Russian source highlighting the financial costs of US military interventions. НгП раZVедка shares a video claiming Ukrainian military are breaking into civilian homes near Bohater, accompanying the video with accusatory text and portraying Ukrainian forces negatively. MoD Russia shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman discussing his surrender with a comrade, likely used for propaganda purposes to encourage surrender.
Ukraine's International Relations: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS warns about a fake post on X alleging a Hungarian military operation to retake Zakarpattia, highlighting ongoing information operations. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video message from Zelenskyy confirming his team is actively preparing for a visit to Turkey and has presented Ukraine's position to partners. Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that Ukraine has completed all necessary procedures for the launch of the American-Ukrainian Reconstruction Fund, and the relevant documents have been handed over to the US Charge d'Affaires. РБК-Україна previously reported on Zelenskyy's statement about meeting with Erdoğan on May 15th in Ankara and doing everything possible to meet Putin. Zelenskiy / Official previously shared a video of Zelenskyy discussing his team's preparation for the visit to Turkey and Ukraine's position on negotiations. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА also previously shared Zelenskyy's video.
India-Pakistan Conflict: Старше Эдды previously reported the escalation between India and Pakistan continues, with reports of exchanges of fire and aerial activity despite a claimed ceasefire.
US-Russia Relations: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 cites US Special Envoy Kellogg stating that the US is discussing the placement of forces from the UK, France, Germany, and Poland west of the Dnipro River within the framework of a Ukrainian settlement. Two Majora provides a summary of negotiation-related messages, highlighting the US and Ukraine raising the level of representation and Trump's hinted involvement. РБК-Україна previously reported that US Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, stated that Putin has been warned that Russia faces the harshest sanctions if no progress is made.
Turkey-Russia/Ukraine Relations: The Russian delegation will be in Istanbul on May 15th, awaiting the Ukrainian side. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video message from Zelenskyy confirming his team is actively preparing for a visit to Turkey and is ready for direct talks with Putin in Turkey. TASS reports that the Russian delegation will be in Istanbul on May 15th and will wait for the Ukrainian side.
Russia-China Relations: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video message from Zelenskyy noting US and Chinese support for a ceasefire and negotiations.
Economic Impact of Conflict: Старше Эдды reports on the calculated cost of the recent "short war" with Houthis for the US, a Russian source highlighting the financial costs of US military interventions.
Russia-NATO Relations: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 cites US Special Envoy Kellogg stating that the US is discussing the placement of forces from the UK, France, Germany, and Poland west of the Dnipro River within the framework of a Ukrainian settlement. Kotsnews shares a historical narrative about Admiral Kasatonov and the Black Sea Fleet, likely for internal Russian propaganda purposes on Black Sea Fleet Day, which has implications for Russian naval power projection and potential interactions with NATO.
Israel-Palestine Conflict: РБК-Україна reports that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced the completion of the military operation in Gaza in the coming days.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security and Border Attacks: Два майора reports alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on civilians and emergency services in Belgorod Oblast, resulting in casualties and damage, while also highlighting Russian electronic warfare (EW) and air defense efforts. This highlights the continued impact of the conflict on bordering Russian territories and the focus on security in these areas. НгП раZVедка shares a video claiming Ukrainian military are breaking into civilian homes near Bohater, accompanying the video with accusatory text and portraying Ukrainian forces negatively. This is a clear information operation aimed at shaping perceptions of Ukrainian actions.
Casualties: Два майора reports alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on civilians and emergency services in Belgorod Oblast, resulting in casualties and damage, while also highlighting Russian electronic warfare (EW) and air defense efforts. This provides specific casualty information, albeit from a Russian source. Олексій Білошицький reports intense ongoing drone activity by Ukrainian forces in Toretsk, inflicting casualties on Russian troops. This highlights the human cost of the fighting on the Russian side in a key area.
Propaganda and Information Operations: Fighterbomber shares photos of the "Rus" aerobatic team in Arkhangelsk, a domestic event likely for morale or public relations. Colonelcassad is collecting funds for motorcycles, indicating ongoing volunteer support for Russian forces, which is used to demonstrate public backing. Kotsnews shares a historical narrative about Admiral Kasatonov and the Black Sea Fleet, likely for internal Russian propaganda purposes on Black Sea Fleet Day. Kotsnews shares a poll suggesting public sentiment about sanctioning historical routes associated with the West, reflecting internal narratives and potential targets of animosity, which is used to shape public opinion. Старше Эдды reports on the calculated cost of the recent "short war" with Houthis for the US, a Russian source highlighting the financial costs of US military interventions, likely to portray Western military efforts negatively. Два майора reports on an appeal against the conviction of Russian General Popov by the administration of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, an unusual development in a high-profile case, which could be used to frame the legal system or specific individuals. НгП раZVедка shares a video claiming Ukrainian military are breaking into civilian homes near Bohater, accompanying the video with accusatory text and portraying Ukrainian forces negatively. MoD Russia shares a video featuring a captured Ukrainian serviceman discussing his surrender with a comrade, likely used for propaganda purposes to encourage surrender among Ukrainian forces. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS warns about a fake post on X alleging a Hungarian military operation to retake Zakarpattia, highlighting ongoing information operations aimed at creating panic and distrust.
Military Commemoration: Kotsnews shares a historical narrative about Admiral Kasatonov and the Black Sea Fleet, likely for internal Russian propaganda purposes on Black Sea Fleet Day.
Domestic Issues: Новости Москвы reports on planned escalator closures in the Moscow metro for repair, a domestic infrastructure issue. Colonelcassad is collecting funds for motorcycles, indicating ongoing volunteer support for Russian forces, which reflects aspects of civil society engagement with the conflict. Kotsnews shares a poll suggesting public sentiment about sanctioning historical routes associated with the West, reflecting internal narratives and potential targets of animosity. Старше Эдды reports on the calculated cost of the recent "short war" with Houthis for the US, a Russian source highlighting the financial costs of US military interventions. Два майора reports on an appeal against the conviction of Russian General Popov by the administration of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, an internal legal/political issue.
Humanitarian Issues: Два майора reports alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on civilians and emergency services in Belgorod Oblast, resulting in casualties and damage. This highlights the impact of cross-border attacks on the civilian population and emergency responders. НгП раZVедка shares a video claiming Ukrainian military are breaking into civilian homes near Bohater. If true, this would be a significant humanitarian concern and a potential war crime.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Military Support (Russia): Colonelcassad is collecting funds for motorcycles, indicating ongoing volunteer support for Russian forces. This reflects the role of civil society in supporting the military effort. Kotsnews shares a historical narrative about Admiral Kasatonov and the Black Sea Fleet, likely for internal Russian propaganda purposes on Black Sea Fleet Day, aimed at boosting morale.
Civilian Impact: The head of the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration announced a decision on the forced evacuation of 79 children from 8 settlements in the Druzhkivka community, indicating the impact of hostilities on civilians. Два майора reports alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on civilians and emergency services in Belgorod Oblast, resulting in casualties and damage. This highlights the human cost of the conflict on both sides of the border. НгП раZVедка shares a video claiming Ukrainian military are breaking into civilian homes near Bohater. If true, this would highlight a severe impact on civilians.
Reconstruction: Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that Ukraine has completed all necessary procedures for the launch of the American-Ukrainian Reconstruction Fund, and the relevant documents have been handed over to the US Charge d'Affaires. This indicates concrete steps towards post-conflict recovery planning and securing international financial support.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russian Forces: Conducting intense ground assaults, particularly in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. Employing guided aerial bombs (KABs) and widespread drone activity for attack and reconnaissance across Ukraine. Utilizing electronic warfare (EW) and air defense systems to counter Ukrainian drones. Claiming localized advances in various sectors, including near Lyptsi and Vovchansk in Kharkiv, Voinivka and Novoselivka-Rivnopil in the Vremivsky direction, and west of Makeevka. Using propaganda to highlight alleged Ukrainian war crimes and encourage surrender. Commemorating Black Sea Fleet Day. Conducting domestic military-related activities like aerobatic team displays. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Рыбарь, Сливочный каприз, Ukrainian Air Force, Nikolaevskiy Vanyok, Два майора, Colonelcassad, Воин DV, ASTRA, НгП раZVедка, MoD Russia, Fighterbomber, Kotsnews)
Ukrainian Forces: Defending against intense Russian assaults in key areas, including Toretsk, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts. Utilizing drones extensively for tactical engagements, reconnaissance, and inflicting casualties on Russian forces, as highlighted by the activity in Toretsk and the video shared by STERNENKO. Reportedly considering the use of larger "Chaklun" UAVs. Claiming successful destruction of Russian assets. Engaging in diplomatic efforts for ceasefire and negotiations, preparing for potential high-level talks in Turkey. Working to secure international financial support for reconstruction. Countering Russian information operations, including alleged fake news about Hungarian military operations. (Олексій Білошицький, Donetsk Oblast Military Administration, Colonelcassad, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, НгП раZVедка, Сливочный каприз, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Рыбарь, Ukrainian Air Force, Nikolaevskiy Vanyok, Военкор Котенок, Привид Хортиці, ASTRA, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO)
Equipment and Tactics: Extensive use of various types of drones (FPV, reconnaissance, attack UAVs like "Chaklun") by both sides. Employment of guided aerial bombs (KABs), artillery, and potentially ballistic missiles (Iskander). Russian forces are highlighting the effectiveness of their drone operators and EW systems. Ukrainian forces are demonstrating effective tactical drone strikes and potentially developing larger UAVs. Reports suggest Russian forces are using a combination of frontal assaults and localized advances. The potential discussion of placing Western forces west of the Dnipro suggests a consideration of significant future security arrangements. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Рыбарь, Сливочный каприз, Ukrainian Air Force, Nikolaevskiy Vanyok, Два майора, Colonelcassad, Воин DV, ASTRA, НгП раZVедка, MoD Russia, Fighterbomber, Kotsnews, Олексій Білошицький, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, STERNENKO, Военкор Котенок, Привид Хортиці)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued intensity of ground combat, particularly in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, with Russian claims of localized advances and Ukrainian reports of repelling numerous assaults, underscores the ongoing strategic importance of territorial control in eastern and southern Ukraine. The fighting in areas like Toretsk, Lyptsi, and Vovchansk indicates sustained pressure on key sectors of the front line.
The persistent Russian aerial and missile activity, including KAB launches and widespread drone usage, represents a continued strategic effort to pressure Ukrainian defenses, disrupt logistics, and impact civilian morale. The targeting of port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast has significant economic and logistical implications. The alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian border regions and their impact highlight the complex and escalating nature of cross-border actions.
The ongoing diplomatic activity surrounding potential negotiations in Istanbul, with reported high-level US involvement and Ukrainian readiness for direct talks with Putin, is a significant strategic dimension. While the outcome remains uncertain, these discussions indicate continued international efforts to find a path towards de-escalation. The US discussion of potentially placing Western forces west of the Dnipro is a highly significant and potentially escalatory proposal with major implications for future security architecture. The differing stances on ceasefire prerequisites and Russia's hardline position on NATO further complicate these efforts.
The disconnect between diplomatic discussions and reported Russian preparations for a large-scale offensive suggests a potential strategic ambiguity or a deliberate effort to maintain military pressure while engaging in talks. Ukraine's GUR assessing Russian preparation for a major offensive highlights the continued threat despite diplomatic overtures.
Alleged fake news regarding a Hungarian military operation in Zakarpattia and other information operations by both sides highlight the critical role of the information domain in shaping narratives, creating distrust, and influencing perceptions. Countering such efforts is strategically important for maintaining internal cohesion and international support. The Russian use of propaganda, including claims of Ukrainian war crimes and videos of captured soldiers, is aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian forces and garnering domestic support.
Ukraine completing procedures for the launch of the American-Ukrainian Reconstruction Fund is a significant strategic step towards planning for post-conflict recovery and securing long-term financial support. This demonstrates a focus on the future and a commitment to rebuilding the country, which has strategic implications for long-term stability and resilience.
Internal Russian issues, such as security concerns in border regions due to alleged Ukrainian attacks and social dynamics highlighted by polls and domestic incidents, can have strategic implications by potentially impacting domestic support for the conflict, influencing resource allocation, and highlighting potential vulnerabilities.
The potential development or deployment of larger, more impactful Ukrainian drones as suggested by the unconfirmed "Chaklun" UAV report indicates Ukraine's strategic focus on enhancing its technological capabilities and leveraging unmanned systems for greater tactical and operational effect. The demonstrated effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones against Russian infantry also highlights the strategic impact of these systems on ground combat.
The appeal against the conviction of Russian General Popov is an internal Russian legal and political development that could reflect power struggles or attempts to influence high-level military leadership, which could have indirect strategic implications.
The commentary and sentiment expressed in Russian social media channels and polls, while not necessarily reflecting official policy, offer insights into prevailing narratives and potential targets of animosity within Russia, which can inform strategic communication efforts and understanding of the Russian domestic environment.
The reported completion of the military operation in Gaza by Israel is a significant development in a separate conflict that could have international repercussions, potentially shifting global attention and resources.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report