Sitrep 2025-05-13 17:26:49

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 13, 2025, 17:26 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational landscape continues to be marked by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, and the Kursk and Sumy border regions. Russian aerial and missile activity remains a significant threat, with confirmed ballistic missile launches towards southern Ukraine, including Odessa, and continued use of guided aerial bombs and drones in various oblasts. Ukrainian forces are actively defending against these attacks, engaging in counter-drone efforts, and conducting localized strikes. Diplomatic efforts surrounding potential negotiations in Istanbul are ongoing, with conflicting reports and statements regarding the attendance of high-level representatives, particularly President Putin. The United States has explicitly warned Russia of the potential for the harshest sanctions if no progress is made in negotiations, specifically targeting the Central Bank or "shadow fleet." Both Ukraine and Russia continue to engage in information operations and highlight perceived tactical successes and internal developments. Concerns regarding the control of Ukrainian nuclear fuel and facilities are being raised by Russian sources. Reports from Russian military bloggers indicate a potential large-scale Russian offensive may have begun in Donbas. Concerns are also raised about the potential costs of ongoing conflicts, such as the US involvement against Houthis.

Significant updates from the latest messages include:

Continued Intense Fighting in Toretsk (Donetsk Oblast): Олексій Білошицький shares a video with the caption "Toretsk. Predators' drones are at work☄️ Russians are running breathlessly, falling in puddles of blood and praying - not to God, but to UAV operators, for mercy." This indicates intense ongoing combat in the Toretsk area, with Ukrainian drones being actively used and inflicting casualties on Russian forces. This corroborates previous reports of significant activity in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian Glorification of Black Sea Fleet Command: Kotsnews shares a message titled "EVENING BELL: hero of the outgoing day" and highlights Admiral Igor Vladimirovich Kasatonov, former Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, for his role in the early 1990s. This is a historical narrative being used for internal Russian propaganda, aiming to bolster morale and a sense of historical continuity and importance for the Black Sea Fleet, particularly relevant on Black Sea Fleet Day.
Discussion of US Costs in Conflict with Houthis: Старше Эдды reports on the calculated cost of the recent "short war" with Houthis for the US. This is a Russian source highlighting the financial costs of US military interventions, potentially aimed at influencing perceptions about the sustainability of Western military support for Ukraine or other conflicts.
Apparent Appeal Against Russian General's Conviction in Zaporizhzhia Case: Два майора reports that the administration of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, recognized as the injured party in the case against former 58th Army Commander Major General Ivan Popov, has appealed his sentence, asking for its cancellation and a retrial. This is an unusual development in a high-profile corruption case involving a military leader, raising questions about the internal dynamics and potential political motivations behind the appeal.
US Special Envoy Discusses Potential Placement of Western Forces West of Dnipro: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 cites US Special Envoy Kellogg stating that the US, within the framework of a Ukrainian settlement, is discussing the placement of forces from the UK, France, Germany, and Poland west of the Dnipro River. This is a highly significant and potentially escalatory proposal being discussed at a diplomatic level, outlining a potential post-conflict security arrangement that would be deeply unacceptable to Russia according to Russian sources.
Russian Military Blogger Claims Russian Offensive Has Begun: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), a Finnish source often aligned with pro-Russian narratives, claims that a major Russian offensive may have begun, with reports starting Monday and something "exceptional" beginning Tuesday, including "full fighting" in at least three significant parts of the Donbas front. This is a significant claim from a source providing a pro-Russian perspective, suggesting a potential shift to large-scale offensive operations following Victory Day.
Reported Iskander Strike and Reconnaissance Drone Activity in Port of Illichivsk: Военкор Котенок reports an explosion in the port of Illichivsk (Chornomorsk), citing "enemy publics" reporting an "Iskander" arrival and a reconnaissance "Orlan" drone being spotted before the strike. This confirms a strike on key port infrastructure and the use of reconnaissance assets to support targeting.
Discussion of Potential Role of Roman Abramovich in Negotiations: Alex Parker Returns raises the possibility of Roman Abramovich being involved in the upcoming Istanbul negotiations, framing it as a "dangerous moment" and suggesting he might play the "good cop" role. This indicates speculation about potential intermediaries and hidden agendas in the diplomatic process.
Reporting on Positional Fighting and Russian Advance near Dzerzhinsk: Сливочный каприз reports on positional fighting near Horlivka (Gorlovka), specifically in the Dzerzhinsk-Krymske area, stating that a Russian forward position on the shore of Reservoir #2 is under Ukrainian fire and that Russian forces have advanced over 800 meters north of Dzerzhinsk. This provides specific details on tactical movements and engagements in a key area of the Donetsk front.
Netanyahu Announces Conclusion of Military Operation in Gaza: РБК-Україна reports that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced the completion of the military operation in Gaza in the coming days, emphasizing the goal of "subjugating Hamas." This is a significant development in a separate but internationally relevant conflict, potentially shifting global attention and resources.
Ukrainian Claims of Effective Drone Strikes: Привид Хортиці shares a video claiming successful and "merciless" drone strikes that the enemy "did not see, did not hear. Only a flash. And silence." This highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone operations and their tactical impact on Russian forces. The accompanying call for donations and recruitment links underscores the ongoing nature of these efforts.
Dissemination of Alleged Fake News about Hungarian Military Operation in Zakarpattia: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS warns about a fake post on X (formerly Twitter) alleging a Hungarian military operation to retake Zakarpattia, accompanied by videos of military convoys presented as evidence. This highlights ongoing information operations aimed at creating panic and distrust, and the importance of verifying information.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Druzhkivka community, Stepanivka, Konstantinovka direction, Soledar direction, Donetsk Direction, Pokrovsk direction, Toretsk, Dzerzhinsk, Krymske, Horlivka (Gorlovka)): Remains the primary focus of intense ground combat. A forced evacuation of children has been ordered in 8 settlements of the Druzhkivka community. Russian "Rubikon" special center operators claim to have ambushed and destroyed a German Leopard tank in the Stepanivka area on the Konstantinovka direction, and also claim to have destroyed French VABs, Turkish Kirpis, American HMMWVs, quads, personnel, and heavy copters. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming successful Russian drone strikes on the Soledar direction and the Donetsk Direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video from the Third Assault Brigade claiming successful strikes and destruction of Russian vehicles, trucks, a light armored vehicle, a ground robotic platform, and an ammunition depot on the Donetsk direction. Олексій Білошицький reports intense fighting in Toretsk with effective Ukrainian drone use. Сливочный каприз reports positional fighting near Horlivka (Gorlovka), specifically in the Dzerzhinsk-Krymske area, with a Russian advance north of Dzerzhinsk. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) claims a major Russian offensive may have begun in Donbas.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) / Sumy Oblast (Ukraine Border) (Bilovody, Loknya, Vodolagi, Sumy Oblast): Russian sources claim Ukrainian units are suffering colossal losses in the areas of Bilovody, Loknya, and Vodolagi in Sumy Oblast, and that Ukrainian reserves are regularly destroyed. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point, a strongpoint, a 120mm mortar, a temporary deployment point, personnel, an armored fighting vehicle, and a communication tower with EW equipment in Sumy Oblast.
Chernihiv Oblast: Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian strongpoint and a communication tower with EW equipment in Chernihiv Oblast.
Odessa Oblast (Chornomorsk, Odessa, Illichivsk): Speed targets were reported originating from the Black Sea towards Chornomorsk. Confirmed explosions in Odessa and reports of a strike in the port area. STERNENKO reported Odessa under ballistic missile attack. Colonelcassad reported explosions and arrivals in Odessa. Два майора reported a strike in the port zone of Odessa. Николаевский Ванёк reported ballistic missile on Chornomorsk. Военкор Котенок reports an explosion in the port of Illichivsk, citing reports of an Iskander strike and Orlan drone activity.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: An air raid alarm was issued for the entire oblast due to the threat of ballistic missile application. Later, the ballistic missile threat was lifted. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 also shared a video about a "underground school" nearing completion in Zaporizhzhia. Два майора reports on an appeal against the conviction of Russian General Popov by the administration of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Kharkiv Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the lifting of the threat of strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast, but later re-issued a threat of enemy strike UAVs for the oblast, and then lifted it again.
Kyiv City: A rocket danger air raid alarm was issued due to the takeoff of MiG-31K aircraft. КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) issued the air raid alarm and advised using shelters. РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ also reported the air raid alarm due to the MiG-31K takeoff.
Republic of Crimea: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that one Ukrainian aircraft-type UAV was destroyed by air defense over the Republic of Crimea.
Tambov (Russia): A tree was planted in honor of missing military personnel from military unit 28760 of the 25th Assault Brigade.
Moscow Oblast (Russia): Новости Москвы shares a video of the demolition of the Snezhe.Com complex.
Gaza: РБК-Україна reports that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced the completion of the military operation in Gaza in the coming days.
Red Sea/Yemen (Houthis): Старше Эдды reports on the cost of the US conflict with Houthis.
Zakarpattia Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS warns about alleged fake news regarding a Hungarian military operation in this region.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Missile Activity: Speed targets were reported originating from the Black Sea towards Chornomorsk (Odessa Oblast), with confirmed explosions in Odessa and reports of a strike in the port area. The Ukrainian Air Force issued a ballistic missile threat warning for southern Ukraine and Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and later reported the lifting of the threat. A rocket danger air raid alarm was issued across Ukraine due to the takeoff of MiG-31K aircraft. Николаевский Ванёк reported ballistic missile on Chornomorsk and later stated no repeated launches but threat remains. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reported Odessa under ballistic missile attacks. Два майора reported a strike in the port zone of Odessa. Военкор Котенок reports an explosion in the port of Illichivsk, citing reports of an Iskander arrival.
Drone Activity: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that three Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed by air defense: two over Belgorod Oblast and one over the Republic of Crimea. Russian "Rubikon" special center operators claim to have destroyed Ukrainian quads and heavy copters. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming successful Russian drone strikes on the Soledar direction and the Donetsk Direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video from the Third Assault Brigade claiming successful strikes and destruction of Russian vehicles and a ground robotic platform on the Donetsk direction, likely utilizing FPV drones, and also claims to have hit an ammunition depot. Два майора reports on Russian military blogger claims that foreign gamers from Western countries are massively arriving in Ukraine to work as drone operators in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and includes a photo claiming to be a Ukrainian UAV operator in Kursk Oblast from August 2025. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point and a communication tower with EW equipment in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the lifting and re-issuing of a threat of enemy strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast. Олексій Білошицький reports intense fighting in Toretsk with effective Ukrainian drone use. Военкор Котенок reports a reconnaissance "Orlan" drone being spotted before a strike in the port of Illichivsk. Привид Хортиці shares a video claiming successful and "merciless" Ukrainian drone strikes.
Aviation Activity: A rocket danger air raid alarm was issued across Ukraine due to the takeoff of MiG-31K aircraft. Николаевский Ванёк reported 2 MiG-31K aircraft from Savasleyka in the air. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the takeoff of MiG-31K.
Naval Activity: Speed targets were reported originating from the Black Sea towards Chornomorsk (Odessa Oblast), with confirmed explosions in Odessa and reports of a strike in the port area. ТАСС shares a video of Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Admiral Moiseev congratulating servicemen and veterans on Black Sea Fleet Day. Kotsnews highlights Admiral Igor Vladimirovich Kasatonov, former Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, for his historical role. Военкор Котенок reports an explosion in the port of Illichivsk.
Air Defense Activity: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that three Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed by air defense: two over Belgorod Oblast and one over the Republic of Crimea. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the lifting and re-issuing of a threat of strike UAVs for Kharkiv Oblast.
Artillery Activity: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video from the Third Assault Brigade claiming successful strikes on a Russian ammunition depot.
Reconnaissance Activity: Военкор Котенок reports a reconnaissance "Orlan" drone being spotted before a strike in the port of Illichivsk.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Negotiation and Ceasefire Discussions: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine's team is actively preparing for a visit to Turkey and has presented Ukraine's position to all partners, emphasizing the importance of a long-term and unconditional ceasefire and direct negotiations at the highest level, specifically with Putin. He also stated that the US clearly and unambiguously says leaders must meet, and that Ukraine is absolutely ready for a truly effective format of conversation. Песков stated that the Russian delegation will be in Istanbul on May 15th and will wait for the Ukrainian side. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS initially reported Zelenskyy's departure for Ankara, citing the Ukrainian embassy, but Оперативний ЗСУ later refuted this, citing Suspilne and the Ukrainian embassy. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also provided a summary of what is known about the negotiations in Turkey, including Zelenskyy's readiness to meet Putin, Peskov's refusal to reveal the Russian delegation, the US expectation of the Russian delegation by Thursday morning, the potential attendance of Trump's envoys and Marco Rubio, and Trump's condition of Putin's presence. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe is waiting for a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin in Istanbul before pressing the US for new sanctions, citing Reuters. РБК-Україна also reported on Zelenskyy's statement about meeting with Erdoğan on May 15th in Ankara and doing everything possible to meet Putin. РБК-Україна reported that US Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, stated that Putin has been warned that Russia faces the harshest sanctions if no progress is made. ТАСС reports that the Russian delegation will be in Istanbul on May 15th and will wait for the Ukrainian side. Alex Parker Returns raises the possibility of Roman Abramovich's involvement in the Istanbul negotiations. Два майора provides a summary of negotiation-related messages, highlighting the US and Ukraine raising the level of representation.
International Support for Ukraine: US Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, stated that Putin has been warned that Russia faces the harshest sanctions if no progress is made, potentially targeting the Central Bank or "shadow fleet," and that a relevant bill is supported by over 70 senators. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe is waiting for a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin in Istanbul before pressing the US for new sanctions, citing Reuters. РБК-Україна also reported on Kellogg's statement. Finland is changing its rail gauge with strong support from NATO. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 cites US Special Envoy Kellogg stating that the US is discussing the placement of forces from the UK, France, Germany, and Poland west of the Dnipro River.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated his readiness for direct negotiations with Putin in Turkey and that Ukraine is absolutely ready for a truly effective format of conversation. Песков stated that the Russian delegation will be in Istanbul on May 15th and will wait for the Ukrainian side. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS initially reported Zelenskyy's departure for Ankara, citing the Ukrainian embassy, but Оперативний ЗСУ later refuted this. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also provided a summary of what is known about the negotiations in Turkey. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe is waiting for a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin in Istanbul before pressing the US for new sanctions, citing Reuters. РБК-Україна also reported on Zelenskyy's statement about meeting with Erdoğan and doing everything possible to meet Putin, and on Kellogg's statement about potential sanctions. ТАСС reports that the Russian delegation will be in Istanbul on May 15th and will wait for the Ukrainian side. Alex Parker Returns raises the possibility of Roman Abramovich's involvement in the Istanbul negotiations. Два майора provides a summary of negotiation-related messages, highlighting the US and Ukraine raising the level of representation. WarGonzo suggests publicly demanding the release of hostages from Kursk Oblast before any peace talks.
Internal Ukrainian Politics: The head of the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration announced a decision on the forced evacuation of 79 children from 8 settlements in the Druzhkivka community. Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS initially reported Zelenskyy's departure for Ankara, citing the Ukrainian embassy, but Оперативний ЗСУ later refuted this. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAraine FIGHTS also provided a summary of what is known about the negotiations in Turkey, including Zelenskyy's readiness to meet Putin. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe is waiting for a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin in Istanbul before pressing the US for new sanctions, citing Reuters. РБК-Україна also reported on Zelenskyy's statement about meeting with Erdoğan and doing everything possible to meet Putin. Zelenskiy / Official shared a video of Zelenskyy discussing his team's preparation for the visit to Turkey and Ukraine's position on negotiations. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА also shared Zelenskyy's video.
Internal Russian Issues: Новости Москвы shares a video of the demolition of the Snezhe.Com complex. Старше Эдды shares a video appealing for donations for a animal shelter. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on the planting of a tree in Tambov in honor of missing military personnel from military unit 28760 of the 25th Assault Brigade. Два майора reports on Russian military blogger claims that foreign gamers from Western countries are massively arriving in Ukraine to work as drone operators in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and includes a photo claiming to be a Ukrainian UAV operator in Kursk Oblast from August 2025. TASS shares a video of Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Admiral Moiseev congratulating servicemen and veterans on Black Sea Fleet Day. Colonelcassad shares "testimony" from a Russian serviceman alleging mistreatment by Ukrainian forces after capture. Alex Parker Returns shares an image and text critical of living in the UK and those who left Russia, framing it as selling out their homeland, and an image and text critical of Jewish people, using offensive language and historical distortions, and a photo and text of an Immortal Regiment demonstration, framing it within a narrative of Russian historical pride and resilience. Два майора shares a report from Rybar on concerns about the lack of control over Ukrainian nuclear fuel and facilities and critiques the US and Ukraine. Kotsnews highlights Admiral Igor Vladimirovich Kasatonov, former Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, for his historical role. Два майора reports on an appeal against the conviction of Russian General Popov by the administration of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
US Diplomatic Activity: US Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, stated that Putin has been warned that Russia faces the harshest sanctions if no progress is made, potentially targeting the Central Bank or "shadow fleet," and that a relevant bill is supported by over 70 senators. Trump stated that Marco Rubio and other US representatives will fly to the talks on Ukraine in Istanbul. РБК-Україна also reported on Kellogg's statement. Rybar shares analysis on potential Trump-Syrian leader negotiations and mentions concerns about the lack of control over Ukrainian nuclear fuel and facilities, attributing the report to Rybar. Два майора shares a report from Rybar on concerns about the lack of control over Ukrainian nuclear fuel and facilities and critiques the US and Ukraine. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 cites US Special Envoy Kellogg stating that the US is discussing the placement of forces from the UK, France, Germany, and Poland west of the Dnipro River. Два майора provides a summary of negotiation-related messages, highlighting the US and Ukraine raising the level of representation. WarGonzo suggests the release of hostages from Kursk Oblast might be achieved under pressure from Trump.
Ceasefire Discussions: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine has received a signal from China supporting a 30-day ceasefire. Zelenskiy / Official shared a video of Zelenskyy emphasizing the importance of a long-term and unconditional ceasefire. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and ASTRA also reported on Zelenskyy's claims regarding China's request and support for a ceasefire. Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe is waiting for a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin in Istanbul before pressing the US for new sanctions, citing Reuters.
Turkey-Ukraine Relations: Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS initially reported Zelenskyy's departure for Ankara, citing the Ukrainian embassy, but Оперативний ЗСУ later refuted this. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also provided a summary of what is known about the negotiations in Turkey, including Zelenskyy's readiness to meet Putin. РБК-Україна also reported on Zelenskyy's statement about meeting with Erdoğan on May 15th in Ankara and doing everything possible to meet Putin. Zelenskiy / Official shared a video of Zelenskyy discussing his team's preparation for the visit to Turkey. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА also shared Zelenskyy's video.
Turkey-Russia Relations: Песков stated that the Russian delegation will be in Istanbul on May 15th and will wait for the Ukrainian side. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS also provided a summary of what is known about the negotiations in Turkey, including Peskov's refusal to reveal the Russian delegation and Trump's condition of Putin's presence. РБК-Україна reported on Zelenskyy's statement about doing everything possible to meet Putin in Turkey. Zelenskiy / Official shared a video of Zelenskyy discussing his team's preparation for the visit to Turkey. Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА also shared Zelenskyy's video. ТАСС reports that the Russian delegation will be in Istanbul on May 15th and will wait for the Ukrainian side.
Russia-China Relations: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine has received a signal from China supporting a 30-day ceasefire and that China and other countries asked Ukraine not to shell Russia from May 8-10 due to visiting leaders, and Ukraine agreed. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS and ASTRA also reported on Zelenskyy's claims regarding China's request and support for a ceasefire.
Russia-US Relations: US Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, stated that Putin has been warned that Russia faces the harshest sanctions if no progress is made, potentially targeting the Central Bank or "shadow fleet," and that a relevant bill is supported by over 70 senators. Trump stated that Marco Rubio and other US representatives will fly to the talks on Ukraine in Istanbul. РБК-Україна also reported on Kellogg's statement. Rybar shares analysis on potential Trump-Syrian leader negotiations and mentions concerns about the lack of control over Ukrainian nuclear fuel and facilities, attributing the report to Rybar. Два майора shares a report from Rybar on concerns about the lack of control over Ukrainian nuclear fuel and facilities and critiques the US and Ukraine. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 cites US Special Envoy Kellogg stating that the US is discussing the placement of forces from the UK, France, Germany, and Poland west of the Dnipro River. Два майора provides a summary of negotiation-related messages, highlighting the US and Ukraine raising the level of representation. WarGonzo suggests the release of hostages from Kursk Oblast might be achieved under pressure from Trump.
Economic Impact of Sanctions: US Special Envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, stated that Putin has been warned that Russia faces the harshest sanctions if no progress is made, potentially targeting the Central Bank or "shadow fleet." Оперативний ЗСУ reports that Europe is waiting for a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin in Istanbul before pressing the US for new sanctions, citing Reuters.
Russia-NATO Relations: Finland is changing its rail gauge with strong support from NATO. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 cites US Special Envoy Kellogg stating that the US is discussing the placement of forces from the UK, France, Germany, and Poland west of the Dnipro River.
Israel-Palestine Conflict: РБК-Україна reports that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced the completion of the military operation in Gaza in the coming days.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Casualties: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on the planting of a tree in Tambov in honor of missing military personnel from military unit 28760 of the 25th Assault Brigade, highlighting the human cost of the conflict. Colonelcassad shares "testimony" from a Russian serviceman alleging mistreatment by Ukrainian forces after capture, which could have implications for ongoing prisoner of war exchanges and humanitarian concerns. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo and text of an Immortal Regiment demonstration, which commemorates those who died in past conflicts, implicitly linking to the human cost of the current one.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian "Rubikon" special center operators claim to have ambushed and destroyed a German Leopard tank, and also claim to have destroyed French VABs, Turkish Kirpis, American HMMWVs, quads, personnel, and heavy copters. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming successful Russian drone strikes on the Soledar direction and the Donetsk Direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video from the Third Assault Brigade claiming successful strikes and destruction of Russian vehicles and a ground robotic platform on the Donetsk direction, likely utilizing FPV drones. TASS reports, citing "siloviki", that Ukrainian units are suffering colossal losses in the areas of Bilovody, Loknya, and Vodolagi in Sumy Oblast, and that Ukrainian reserves are regularly destroyed. Colonelcassad shares a video claiming Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point, a strongpoint, a 120mm mortar, a temporary deployment point, personnel, an armored fighting vehicle, and a communication tower with EW equipment in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. Два майора reports on Russian military blogger claims that foreign gamers from Western countries are massively arriving in Ukraine to work as drone operators in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and includes a photo claiming to be a Ukrainian UAV operator in Kursk Oblast from August 2025. TASS shares a video of Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Admiral Moiseev congratulating servicemen and veterans on Black Sea Fleet Day. Colonelcassad shares "testimony" from a Russian serviceman alleging mistreatment by Ukrainian forces after capture. Alex Parker Returns shares an image and text critical of living in the UK and those who left Russia, framing it as selling out their homeland, and an image and text critical of Jewish people, using offensive language and historical distortions, and a photo and text of an Immortal Regiment demonstration, framing it within a narrative of Russian historical pride and resilience. Два майора shares a report from Rybar on concerns about the lack of control over Ukrainian nuclear fuel and facilities and critiques the US and Ukraine. Kotsnews highlights Admiral Igor Vladimirovich Kasatonov, former Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, for his historical role, likely aimed at bolstering military morale. Два майора reports on an appeal against the conviction of Russian General Popov, a military leader. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) claims a major Russian offensive may have begun in Donbas. Военкор Котенок reports an explosion in the port of Illichivsk, citing reports of an Iskander arrival and Orlan drone activity. Сливочный каприз reports positional fighting near Horlivka (Gorlovka), specifically in the Dzerzhinsk-Krymske area, with a Russian advance north of Dzerzhinsk.
Information Control and Censorship: Alex Parker Returns shares an image and text critical of living in the UK and those who left Russia, framing it as selling out their homeland, and an image and text critical of Jewish people, using offensive language and historical distortions, and a photo and text of an Immortal Regiment demonstration, framing it within a narrative of Russian historical pride and resilience. Два майора shares a report from Rybar on concerns about the lack of control over Ukrainian nuclear fuel and facilities and critiques the US and Ukraine, framing it as a strategic issue. Kotsnews highlights Admiral Igor Vladimirovich Kasatov's historical role, likely part of state-sponsored media. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) claiming a major Russian offensive has begun.
Military Commemoration and Information Operations: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on the planting of a tree in Tambov in honor of missing military personnel from military unit 28760 of the 25th Assault Brigade. TASS shares a video of Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Admiral Moiseev congratulating servicemen and veterans on Black Sea Fleet Day. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo and text of an Immortal Regiment demonstration, framing it within a narrative of Russian historical pride and resilience. Kotsnews highlights Admiral Igor Vladimirovich Kasatonov, former Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, for his historical role.
Civilian Casualties: The head of the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration announced a decision on the forced evacuation of 79 children from 8 settlements in the Druzhkivka community, indicating the impact of hostilities on civilians. STERNENKO reported Odessa under ballistic missile attack. Colonelcassad reported explosions and arrivals in Odessa. Два майора reported a strike in the port zone of Odessa. Николаевский Ванёк reported ballistic missile on Chornomorsk. Новости Москвы shares a video of the demolition of the Snezhe.Com complex, with complaints from nearby residents about shaking, highlighting the impact of urban development or other factors on civilian life. Старше Эдды shares a video appealing for donations for a animal shelter, highlighting domestic humanitarian concerns within Russia.
Political Dynamics: Alex Parker Returns shares an image and text critical of living in the UK and those who left Russia, framing it as selling out their homeland, and an image and text critical of Jewish people, using offensive language and historical distortions, and a photo and text of an Immortal Regiment demonstration, framing it within a narrative of Russian historical pride and resilience. Два майора reports on an appeal against the conviction of Russian General Popov by the administration of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating potential political or legal maneuvering.
Humanitarian Issues: The head of the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration announced a decision on the forced evacuation of 79 children from 8 settlements in the Druzhkivka community. Новости Москвы shares a video of the demolition of the Snezhe.Com complex, with complaints from nearby residents about shaking, highlighting the impact of urban development or other factors on civilian life. Старше Эдды shares a video appealing for donations for a animal shelter, highlighting domestic humanitarian concerns within Russia.
Legal Issues: Два майора reports on an appeal against the conviction of Russian General Popov by the administration of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Civilian Impact: The head of the Donetsk Oblast Military Administration announced a decision on the forced evacuation of 79 children from 8 settlements in the Druzhkivka community, indicating the impact of hostilities on civilians. STERNENKO reported Odessa under ballistic missile attack. Colonelcassad reported explosions and arrivals in Odessa. Два майора reported a strike in the port zone of Odessa. Николаевский Ванёк reported ballistic missile on Chornomorsk. Новости Москвы shares a video of the demolition of the Snezhe.Com complex, with complaints from nearby residents about shaking, highlighting the impact of urban development or other factors on civilian life. Старше Эдды shares a video appealing for donations for a animal shelter, highlighting domestic humanitarian concerns within Russia.
Military Support (Ukraine): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video from the Third Assault Brigade claiming successful strikes and destruction of Russian vehicles and a ground robotic platform on the Donetsk direction, likely utilizing FPV drones, and also claims to have hit an ammunition depot. This highlights Ukrainian capabilities and potentially the effectiveness of Western-supplied components or training. Привид Хортиці shares a video claiming successful Ukrainian drone strikes and includes a call for donations and recruitment.
Military Commemoration: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on the planting of a tree in Tambov in honor of missing military personnel from military unit 28760 of the 25th Assault Brigade. TASS shares a video of Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Admiral Moiseev congratulating servicemen and veterans on Black Sea Fleet Day. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo and text of an Immortal Regiment demonstration. Kotsnews highlights Admiral Igor Vladimirovich Kasatonov, former Commander of the Black Sea Fleet, for his historical role.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Conducting ballistic missile strikes on southern Ukraine, including Odessa and potentially Zaporizhzhia. Operating MiG-31K aircraft, causing air raid alerts across Ukraine. Claiming mass destruction of NATO-supplied equipment (Leopard tanks, VABs, Kirpis, HMMWVs, quads, heavy copters) by drone operators. Claiming successful drone strikes on Ukrainian assets in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts (UAV control point, strongpoint, mortar, temporary deployment point, personnel, armored fighting vehicle, EW equipment). Claiming Ukrainian units are suffering colossal losses in the Sumy border region. Commemorating Black Sea Fleet Day. Claiming to have destroyed Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Belgorod Oblast and Crimea. Utilizing various types of drones, including "Rubikon" special center operators. Potentially recruiting foreign gamers as drone operators (claimed by Russian sources). Potentially launching a large-scale offensive in Donbas (claimed by Russian military blogger). Allegedly using Iskander missiles and Orlan reconnaissance drones in strikes on port infrastructure. Conducting positional fighting and limited advances in Donetsk Oblast. Glorifying historical naval figures. (Ukrainian Air Force, Николаевский Ванёк, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Russian Ministry of Defense, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, TASS, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Alex Parker Returns, Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Kotsnews, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Военкор Котенок, Сливочный каприз)
Ukraine: Facing ballistic missile strikes, particularly in southern Ukraine and Odessa. Experiencing air raid alarms across Ukraine due to MiG-31K takeoffs. Conducting forced evacuation of children in specific areas of Donetsk Oblast. Claiming successful strikes and destruction of Russian vehicles and a ground robotic platform on the Donetsk direction, likely utilizing FPV drones. Allegedly suffering colossal losses in the Sumy border region (claimed by Russian sources). Potentially forming a new Army Corps (reported by Russian military bloggers). Allegedly recruiting foreign gamers as drone operators (claimed by Russian sources). Attempting to manage information regarding high-level diplomatic travel. Utilizing drones effectively in combat, including in Toretsk. Conducting defensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and other areas. Promoting the effectiveness of their drone strikes. (Ukrainian Air Force, Николаевский Ванёк, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Donetsk Oblast Military Administration, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, TASS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Zelenskiy / Official, Олег Синєгубов, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Олексій Білошицький, Привид Хортиці, Сливочный каприз)
NATO: Supporting Finland in changing its rail gauge. Potentially discussing the placement of forces in Ukraine (cited by Russian source). (Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Foreign Fighters: Allegedly arriving in Ukraine from Western countries to work as drone operators (claimed by Russian sources). (Два майора)
Israel: Conducting military operations in Gaza. (РБК-Україна)
Houthis: Involved in conflict with the US. (Старше Эдды)
Hungary: Allegedly involved in a fake news story about a military operation in Ukraine. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Equipment and Tactics: Use of ballistic missiles, MiG-31K aircraft, guided aerial bombs, various types of drones (FPV, heavy copters, aircraft-type, "Rubikon", Orlan), tanks, armored fighting vehicles, MLRS, artillery, and EW equipment. Russian drone operators claim mass destruction of Western-supplied equipment. Ukrainian forces are utilizing FPV drones and potentially a ground robotic platform (claimed destroyed by Ukraine), and other effective drone capabilities. Reports suggest the potential formation of a new Ukrainian Army Corps. Allegations of foreign gamers being recruited as drone operators highlight the importance of drone warfare and the search for skilled operators. Iskander missiles and Orlan reconnaissance drones are reportedly used by Russia. Positional fighting and limited advances are occurring in Donetsk Oblast. (Ukrainian Air Force, Николаевский Ванёк, STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Russian Ministry of Defense, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, TASS, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Alex Parker Returns, Рыбарь, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Олексій Білошицький, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), Военкор Котенок, Привид Хортиці, Сливочный каприз)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The ballistic missile strikes on southern Ukraine, including Odessa and potentially Zaporizhzhia, represent a continued strategic effort by Russia to pressure key infrastructure and civilian centers, impacting logistics, morale, and potentially signaling a hardening of their stance amidst negotiation discussions. The report of a strike in the port area of Odessa and an explosion in the port of Illichivsk are particularly significant due to the ports' vital role in Ukrainian grain exports and overall logistics.
The forced evacuation of children in the Druzhkivka community underscores the severe and ongoing humanitarian impact of the conflict in Donetsk Oblast and the strategic imperative for Ukraine to protect its civilian population in areas under intense shelling or facing potential Russian advances.
The Russian claim of mass destruction of NATO-supplied equipment by drone operators is a clear strategic information operation aimed at showcasing the effectiveness of Russian capabilities and potentially deterring further Western military aid to Ukraine. While the scale of the claims requires independent verification, it highlights the crucial role of drones in targeting armored vehicles and other key equipment.
The explicit warning from the US regarding the potential for the harshest sanctions if no progress is made in negotiations represents a significant strategic leverage point being applied by the United States. Targeting the Central Bank or "shadow fleet" could have a substantial impact on Russia's ability to finance the war and engage in international trade, potentially influencing their willingness to engage meaningfully in diplomatic efforts.
The report of the planting of a tree in Tambov in honor of missing Russian military personnel is a poignant reminder of the human cost of the conflict within Russia and highlights efforts to acknowledge and commemorate these losses. While a domestic event, it has strategic implications for public morale and support for the war.
The Russian military bloggers' reports of the formation of a new Ukrainian Army Corps, if accurate, is a significant strategic development indicating Ukraine's commitment to building and maintaining military capacity for sustained or future large-scale operations. This suggests that Ukraine is not solely focused on defensive actions and is preparing for potential counter-offensives or prolonged conflict.
The conflicting reports regarding President Zelenskyy's travel to Turkey for negotiations highlight the sensitivity and fluidity of high-level diplomatic movements and the potential for information operations or miscommunication to influence perceptions about the seriousness and likelihood of such meetings. Managing expectations around these events is strategically important for both sides.
The Russian military bloggers' claims about foreign gamers being recruited as drone operators by Ukraine are likely an information operation aimed at portraying the conflict as being fueled by external actors and potentially justifying Russian actions in border regions or against individuals perceived as foreign fighters. However, it also highlights the growing importance of drone warfare and the demand for skilled operators.
Zelenskyy's statements regarding China's request for Ukraine not to attack the Moscow parade and China's support for a ceasefire are strategically significant as they indicate China's potential role in influencing the conflict and Ukraine's efforts to engage with major global powers on diplomatic solutions. Maintaining a relationship with China is strategically important for Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Third Assault Brigade's claims of successful strikes and destruction of Russian equipment on the Donetsk direction highlight Ukrainian tactical effectiveness in a key area of intense fighting and the impact of their operations on Russian capabilities.
The Russian military's claims of Ukrainian units suffering colossal losses in the Sumy border region and the destruction of Ukrainian assets in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts are Russian narratives aimed at demonstrating their military effectiveness and potentially justifying continued pressure in these border regions. Independent verification of these claims is necessary for a complete picture.
The commemoration of Black Sea Fleet Day by Russia is a morale-boosting event and reinforces the historical narrative and strategic importance of their naval presence, despite recent challenges and losses. Highlighting historical figures like Admiral Kasatonov serves this purpose.
The reported "testimony" from a Russian serviceman alleging mistreatment by Ukrainian forces after capture, while a likely Russian information operation, highlights the ongoing humanitarian issue of prisoners of war and the differing narratives surrounding their treatment. This has implications for potential prisoner exchanges and international perceptions.
The demolition of the Snezhe.Com complex in Moscow Oblast is a domestic event with indirect strategic implications, potentially highlighting the impact of urban development or other factors on civilian life near the capital region.
The appeal for donations for an animal shelter in Russia highlights domestic humanitarian concerns within Russia, which could indirectly reflect on the state's capacity to address all civilian needs amidst the conflict.
Rybar's report on concerns about the lack of control over Ukrainian nuclear fuel and facilities is a Russian narrative likely aimed at raising international concerns about nuclear safety in Ukraine and potentially justifying actions related to Ukrainian nuclear facilities. This is a strategic information operation with potential geopolitical implications.
Finland's decision to change its rail gauge with NATO support is a long-term strategic infrastructure development aimed at improving NATO interoperability and hindering potential Russian logistics, reflecting a shift in Finland's strategic posture following its NATO membership.
The reported announcement by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu of the completion of the military operation in Gaza is a significant development in a separate conflict that could have international repercussions, potentially shifting global attention and resources.
The report on the cost of the US conflict with Houthis is a Russian narrative likely intended to highlight the financial burden of US military interventions and potentially question the sustainability of Western military support for Ukraine.
The report on the appeal against the conviction of Russian General Popov is an internal Russian legal and political development that could reflect power struggles or attempts to influence high-level military leadership.
The US Special Envoy's statement regarding discussions about placing Western forces west of the Dnipro River is a highly significant and potentially escalatory diplomatic development, outlining a potential future security arrangement that would be strongly opposed by Russia. This indicates potential long-term strategic planning by the US and its allies regarding Ukraine's security.
The claim by a Russian military blogger that a major Russian offensive may have begun in Donbas is a significant strategic claim that, if accurate, would indicate a major escalation of ground operations. This requires urgent verification and would necessitate a significant strategic response from Ukraine.
The alleged fake news about a Hungarian military operation in Zakarpattia Oblast highlights ongoing information warfare and attempts to create instability and distrust within Ukraine and between Ukraine and its neighbors. Countering such narratives is strategically important for maintaining internal cohesion and international relations.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report