Situation Report

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 13, 2025, 11:26 UTC)

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Updated Situation

The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk Oblast and the Kursk border region. Aerial and drone activity continues to be a significant factor, with continued reports of Russian aerial strikes, guided aerial bomb usage, and widespread drone use by both sides. Ukraine is actively working to counter these threats and conduct its own targeted strikes. Diplomatic discussions regarding potential negotiations in Turkey continue, with statements from both Ukrainian and Russian officials, although the intensity of fighting and explicit Russian messaging ("There will be no truce!") suggest a diplomatic breakthrough is not imminent. Internal Russian issues, including court cases, domestic incidents, and military policy changes, are being reported. Discussions around potential visits of international figures to Ukraine are also ongoing. New information confirms increased military activity and tension in the Baltic region due to military exercises in Lithuania. Reports of armed clashes in Tripoli, Libya, have emerged, leading to airport disruptions. Allegations of Russian espionage and sabotage activities in the UK have resulted in convictions. There are unconfirmed reports of Hungary moving armored vehicles towards the border with Ukraine, which is being leveraged in Russian information operations. Ukraine has reported the detention of two individuals suspected of acting as agents for the FSB, providing intelligence on Ukrainian military locations in Dnipro and Kramatorsk. Ukraine is highlighting continued international support for military aid and is showcasing internal efforts related to military training and veteran support. Russia has officially claimed the liberation of Mirolyubovka in the Donetsk People's Republic. Russia's Ministry of Defense has released its daily briefing claiming significant Ukrainian losses across all operational zones and the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery workshop. Ukrainian sources are reporting the successful downing of several Russian officers. Reports indicate continued shelling and a challenging environment in the Kursk border region from the perspective of local residents. Ukraine is highlighting international initiatives for its recovery. Internal Russian discussions and commentary on military strategy and public opinion are being observed. Russia is reinforcing cultural and historical narratives. Reports of illegal activities and law enforcement actions within Russia continue. Information operations remain a significant aspect of the conflict. There are reports of damage to an asphalt concrete plant in occupied Luhansk due to alleged Ukrainian drone attacks. Internal Russian military discussions highlight concerns about the integration of modern technology and tactics. Reports from Russian sources claim high levels of corruption within Ukrainian TCCs. Discussions and publications within the Russian military community are addressing issues of tactical medicine. A report from a Russian military channel suggests potential issues with current Russian military strategy and the slow integration of new tactical approaches. The Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025 is being actively prepared, with discussions focusing on critical infrastructure and internally displaced persons, highlighting the strategic importance of post-conflict recovery and international partnerships. New reporting highlights the severe demographic impact of the war on Ukraine, with deaths significantly exceeding births in 2024. A Russian Ministry of Defense report claims liberation of Mirolyubovka and details alleged Ukrainian losses across multiple directions, along with destruction of Western-supplied equipment. A disturbing report from Perm, Russia, alleges a violent crime involving migrants, highlighting potential internal social tensions. Reports of escaped former prisoners who contracted with the Russian Ministry of Defense from a military training ground in Rostov Oblast indicate challenges with personnel management and potential security risks within Russia. Civilian impact in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, is highlighted with a memorial and panakhyda for victims of a ballistic missile strike, including many children. Russia has enacted a law allowing out-of-court bankruptcy for participants and veterans of the "special military operation." A Russian military blogger reports on the "Vostok" group of forces' actions near Bogatyr, claiming advances and successful assaults, and outlining the strategic importance of this area for targeting a key highway. Economic analysis suggests that US tariffs have significantly impacted Slovakia and Hungary, two countries with ties to Russia. Discussions about the potential for Turkey to provide oil and gas to the US in exchange for sanctions relief against a Syrian group are circulating, although the source links this group to ISIS/Al-Qaeda and questions the narrative of them fighting the US. Fundraising efforts for military equipment, specifically drones and signal amplifiers, are ongoing within Russia. A report details an incident in Kaluga, Russia, where a woman allegedly set fire to National Guard vehicles and attacked a man, highlighting potential internal dissent or psychological impacts. A report from outside Penza, Russia, on May 9th, depicts a military event, although the specific nature is unclear. A report details a raven attack on a teenager in Moscow, a non-military incident. A temporary closure of a bar in Perm, Russia, due to sanitary violations follows the discovery of a deceased person on its fence, related to the earlier report. A Russian military blogger shares an anecdotal story about using a spoon to start a tank, highlighting resourcefulness in combat. Russian military bloggers claim increasing reports of destroyed Ukrainian equipment in the Kharkiv direction. Sanitary violations were found in a cafe in Leningrad Oblast where a child died from poisoning. An article discusses how the US could potentially disrupt Russian weapons production by targeting the supply of tantalum. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirms the liberation of Mirolyubovka in the Donetsk People's Republic. A Russian Ministry of Defense daily briefing details alleged Ukrainian losses and destruction of equipment. Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office reports detention of two individuals suspected of providing intelligence to the FSB in Dnipro and Kramatorsk. A Russian military blogger reports intense fighting near Toretsk, claiming Russian control but ongoing Ukrainian counter-attacks. A Ukrainian source reports the capture of an Uzbek national fighting for Russia in the Lyman direction, who reportedly sold himself for citizenship and money. ASTRA reports sentencing of former traffic police head in Stavropol Krai for bribery. Ukrainian sources showcase alleged first combat use of a drone with a grenade launcher. A Russian source claims destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle by an FPV drone near Malinivka. The Ukrainian Air Force lifted a drone threat in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts. The Russian Ministry of Defense released footage of various military units in action. Russian MFA condemns Moldovan textbook content on Transnistria. President Zelenskyy excluded Lt. Gen. Ivan Havryliuk from the Stavka. Updated operational maps of Donetsk Oblast from a Russian source detail front lines and fortifications. Adam Kadyrov received another medal. Reports of alleged Ukrainian aviation bomb and HIMARS strikes in Kursk, with Ukrainian sources claiming a HIMARS strike on a bridge. Russian sources claim a Polish mercenary was found in Kursk Oblast. Six Bulgarians were sentenced in the UK for spying for Russia. Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces are using new anti-personnel mines in Sumy Oblast. Armed clashes in Tripoli, Libya, lead to airport suspension. Military exercises in Lithuania are described by Russia as directed against them. DeepState reports Russian advances in Toretsk, near Romanivka, and Novoolekivka. Unconfirmed reports of Hungarian armor near the Ukrainian border are circulating and being used in Russian information operations. Commentary on the potential Russian delegation for Istanbul talks is ongoing. Discussion on Russian AI capabilities is being promoted. Commentary on nuclear deterrence is being shared. Ukrainian sources report alleged demobilization of several Russian officers. ASTRA reports on a mayoral election in the Philippines involving a candidate under ICC arrest. A Russian source reports on conditions and shelling in Kursk Oblast from the perspective of local residents. A Russian source claims Russian advances in the Velikaya Novosyolka - Zelenoye Pole area. Ukrainian sources report on a Ukraine Recovery Conference in Verona, Italy. A Ukrainian source reports "Madyar" received the Hero of Ukraine award. ASTRA reports on a court ruling in Moscow regarding a lawsuit by Ekaterina Mizulina against bloggers. TASS reports on Putin's instructions regarding state support for culture and arts. Commentary on the strategic implications of a ceasefire is being shared. TASS reports on criminal cases in Gagauzia, Moldova. Commentary contrasting perceptions of WWII and the current conflict is being shared. Russian sources report on military recruitment efforts targeting migrants in Krasnoyarsk. Ukrainian sources report on a servicemember from Kherson. A Russian source reports a shot down "Phoenix" drone. A Russian source reports a drone attack on an asphalt concrete plant in occupied Luhansk. A Russian military blogger comments on the integration of modern technology and tactics in the Russian military. Russian sources claim high levels of corruption in Ukrainian TCCs. Discussions on tactical medicine are ongoing in the Russian military community. A Russian military blogger suggests potential issues with current Russian military strategy. A procedural update for electronic appeals to the Russian Interior Ministry is reported. A meeting on business issues in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, is reported. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of a drone threat in Kharkiv Oblast, which was later lifted. Russian sources claim modernized Ukrainian S-200 missiles are being used as surface-to-surface ballistic missiles.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

• Donetsk Oblast: Remains the primary focus of intense ground combat. Russian forces, including the "Center" Group of Forces, claim the complete liberation of Mirolyubovka. Colonelcassad claims Mirolyubovka is on the Krasnoarmeysk direction. DeepState reports Russian advances in Toretsk, near Romanivka, and Novoolekivka. Russian military bloggers continue to claim advances and territorial control in various areas, including near Otradnoye and Bogatyr, and are pushing towards the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports tense fighting in the vicinity of Toretsk, claiming Russian control of "practically the entire city" but ongoing Ukrainian counter-attack attempts. Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in both defensive and offensive operations, utilizing drone capabilities effectively. Civilian casualties and damage from shelling are reported (Luhansk, previously). Updated operational maps provide visual details on the front lines, control of populated areas, and fortifications on the South-Donetsk and Konstantinovka directions. Ukrainian sources claim the destruction of Russian drone control points and logistical assets in Donetsk Oblast. Death of a Ukrainian soldier reported near Toretsk (previously). Сливочный каприз claims Russian advances in the Velikaya Novosyolka area towards Zelenoye Pole. STERNENKO highlights increased Russian assaults on the Pokrovsk direction. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention of a suspected FSB agent who transmitted data on the movement of equipment and positions of Ukrainian units in Kramatorsk. Kotsnews reports on the "Vostok" group of forces' actions near Bogatyr, claiming advances and outlining the strategic importance of this area for targeting the T0428 highway.
• Kursk Oblast (Russia): Ongoing conflict with reported Ukrainian attempts to break through and Russian counterattacks. Claims of Ukrainian aviation bomb strikes, HIMARS strikes, and FPV drone use in the Tetkino area are reported. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming to show a HIMARS strike on a bridge in Kursk Oblast. Claims of a Polish mercenary being found in Kursk Oblast. Военкор Котенок shares a report describing ongoing shelling and fear among residents, with access to Sudzha and dozens of villages remaining closed due to Ukrainian artillery shelling.
• Sumy Oblast: Affected by Russian aerial and artillery activity. Reports suggest Ukrainian forces are deploying new anti-personnel mines on this direction, described as resembling lighters or small anti-tank mines and allegedly supplied by Western partners. Russian sources claim forceful mobilization and engagement of Ukrainian cooks in this area (previously). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that three guided aerial bombs (KABs) hit the village of Hremyach in Chernihiv Oblast, which is adjacent to Sumy Oblast. Colonelcassad claims modernized Ukrainian S-200 missiles are used as surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to strike Russian territory, potentially impacting this and other border regions.
• Mykolaiv Oblast: Affected by Russian drone attacks. Air alert issued due to threat of attack drones, but later lifted.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Continued intense fighting with Russian assaults and Ukrainian defenses. Ukrainian sources claim the destruction of Russian assault groups at a personnel accumulation point using SDB bombs (previously). Air raid alert declared due to the threat of Russian aviation (previously), but later cleared. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of a threat of enemy attack UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previously). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is actively preparing for the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025, with discussions on the region's recovery, highlighting the significant percentage of occupied territory and the impact of shelling and casualties.
• Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Russian forces are reportedly pushing towards the border to gain fire control over a logistical hub (previously). Russian sources claim to be destroying NATO equipment in the oblast while advancing (previously). Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention of a suspected FSB agent who transmitted data on the locations of Ukrainian forces in the Dnipro area. Сливочный каприз claims Russian forces have advanced over 2.5 km westwards from Novosyolka towards the administrative borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Олександр Вілкул highlights the civilian impact of a ballistic missile strike in Kryvyi Rih, including many child casualties.
• Chernihiv Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that three guided aerial bombs (KABs) hit the village of Hremyach.
• Transnistria (Moldova): Mentioned in the context of Russian diplomatic tension with Moldova over historical textbook content.
• Moldova: Experiencing diplomatic tension with Russia over historical textbook content regarding the Transnistrian conflict. TASS reports on criminal cases against the head of Gagauzia and speculation that these could be used by the Moldovan authorities to gain control over the autonomy.
• Tripoli (Libya): Experiencing armed clashes and fighting, with reports of gunfire and armored vehicles. Mitiga International Airport operations are suspended. This indicates a new area of instability and conflict.
• Lithuania: International military exercises "Thunder Fortress 2025" are taking place, described by Russia as being directed against them. This indicates increased military activity and tension in the Baltic region.
• Hungarian-Ukrainian Border: Unconfirmed reports suggest Hungary is moving armored vehicles towards the border. This report requires verification but indicates potential for increased tension. Alex Parker Returns is leveraging this unconfirmed report in information operations.
• United Kingdom: Six Bulgarians have been convicted and sentenced for spying for Russia, highlighting alleged Russian intelligence activities.
• Kramatorsk (Donetsk Oblast): Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention of a suspected FSB agent who transmitted data on the movement of equipment and positions of Ukrainian units in Kramatorsk.
• Velikaya Novosyolka - Zelenoye Pole (Donetsk Oblast): Сливочный каприз claims Russian advances in this area. Kotsnews reports on the "Vostok" group of forces' actions near Bogatyr, which is in the general vicinity of Velikaya Novosyolka, and mentions the strategic importance of this area for targeting the T0428 highway.
• Mariupol (Donetsk Oblast): ASTRA shares a video of residents appealing to the Russian parliament about housing issues and alleged corruption (previously).
• Luhansk: Civilian casualties reported due to alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on infrastructure (previously). Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on an asphalt concrete plant in occupied Luhansk. ТАСС shares video footage of the alleged aftermath of this attack.
• Kaluga (Russia): Incident involving a woman setting fire to Russian National Guard vehicles reported (previously). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on this incident, highlighting the alleged actions of the woman.
• Novosibirsk Oblast (Russia): Criminal case opened against a regional official (previously).
• Khimki (Moscow Oblast, Russia): Video reportedly shows fresh graves at a cemetery (previously).
• Kherson Oblast: Russian Ministry of Defense shares a video of snipers undergoing drills (previously). Sentencing in an assassination attempt case reported (previously). Ukrainian Air Force warns of drone threat (previously), but later lifted. Сили оборони Півдня України shares a report about a Ukrainian servicemember from Kherson.
• Republic of Crimea: Russian Ministry of Defense claims destruction of a Ukrainian UAV (previously). Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a screenshot of a news article quoting Patrushev on the Black Sea Fleet successfully fulfilling tasks in the "SMO," related to this region.
• Stavropol Krai (Russia): ASTRA reports the sentencing of the former head of the traffic police for corruption.
• Belgorod Oblast (Russia): Russian Ministry of Defense claims destruction of Ukrainian UAVs (previously). Reports of shelling (previously).
• Verona (Italy): 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on a Ukraine Recovery Conference.
• Krasnoyarsk (Russia): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a raid targeting migrants for military recruitment. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares footage of this recruitment process.
• Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): STERNENKO highlights increased Russian assaults. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Mirolyubovka was liberated on this direction.
• Nizhny Novgorod (Russia): Mentioned in the context of a trip for children to Minsk focusing on shared history. Глеб Никитин reports on a meeting with a business ombudsman here.
• Minsk (Belarus): Destination for a trip for children from Nizhny Novgorod focusing on historical sites.
• Habarovsk Krai (Russia): Mentioned in the context of a procedural update for the Interior Ministry. Полиция Хабаровского края provides an update on the new procedure for submitting electronic appeals to the Interior Ministry here.
• Perm (Russia): Alex Parker Returns reports a disturbing alleged violent crime here. TASS reports on a temporary closure of a bar here due to sanitary violations following the discovery of a deceased person.
• Rostov Oblast (Russia): Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and ASTRA report on escaped former prisoners from a military training ground here.
• Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine): Олександр Вілкул highlights the civilian impact of a ballistic missile strike here, including many child casualties.
• Leningrad Oblast (Russia): TASS reports on sanitary violations in a cafe where a child died from poisoning here.
• Moscow Oblast (Russia) (Ramenky): Новости Москвы reports a raven attack on a teenager here.
• Penza (Russia): Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video from a military event here on May 9th.
• Syria: Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) discusses potential for Turkey to provide oil and gas from here to the US in exchange for sanctions relief against a Syrian group.
• Slovakia: РБК-Україна reports that US tariffs have significantly impacted the economy here.
• Hungary: РБК-Україна reports that US tariffs have significantly impacted the economy here.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

• Drone Activity: Pervasive on both sides. Ukrainian forces claim destruction of Russian assault groups using SDB bombs (delivered via aircraft, previously). Russian MoD footage includes footage of attack FPV drone teams in action. Russian drones are being found with messages explicitly rejecting a truce (previously). Air alert issued in Mykolaiv Oblast due to threat of attack drones, but later lifted. Reports of FPV drone drops in the Tetkino area of Kursk. Claims of Ukrainian forces using FPV drones in Kursk. Ukrainian showcase of a drone with a grenade launcher. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle by an FPV drone. Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of 74 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles over the past day. The Ukrainian Air Force warns of a threat of enemy attack UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (previously), but later lifted in Kherson and Mykolaiv. Николаевский Ванёк reports on a shot down "Phoenix" drone. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on an asphalt concrete plant in occupied Luhansk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України warns of a drone threat in Kharkiv Oblast, which was later lifted. Colonelcassad claims modernized Ukrainian S-200 missiles are used as surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to strike Russian territory. Fundraising efforts for drones and signal amplifiers are ongoing within Russia. Russian military bloggers claim increasing reports of destroyed Ukrainian equipment in the Kharkiv direction due to drone use.
• Aviation Activity: Russian forces are conducting aviation strikes with guided aerial bombs towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts (previously). Activity of enemy tactical aviation is reported on the southeastern and northeastern directions (previously). Claims of Ukrainian forces using foreign-made aviation bombs to strike Russian territory (Kursk Oblast). Russian sources claim to be destroying NATO equipment in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with aviation while advancing (previously). Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reported the use of a FAB-3000 guided aerial bomb against alleged Ukrainian forces advancing on Tyotkino in the Kursk border region (previously). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that three guided aerial bombs (KABs) hit the village of Hremyach in Chernihiv Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of 8 US-made JDAM guided aerial bombs over the past day.
• Missile Activity: Russia is utilizing missile strikes. Russian MoD footage includes footage of Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system crews in action. Reports of alleged HIMARS strikes (two) in the Tetkino area of Kursk. The Ukrainian Navy reports one Kalibr carrier with 8 missiles in the Mediterranean Sea (previously). Ukrainian sources claim the destruction of Russian assault groups in Zaporizhzhia using SDB bombs (previously). The US has approved the transfer of 100 Patriot and 125 long-range missiles (likely for HIMARS) to Ukraine (previously). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming to show a HIMARS strike on a bridge in Kursk Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of one HIMARS MLRS projectile over the past day. Colonelcassad claims modernized Ukrainian S-200 missiles are used as surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to strike Russian territory. Олександр Вілкул highlights the civilian impact of a ballistic missile strike in Kryvyi Rih.
• Naval Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports the absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas (previously). A Kalibr carrier is reported in the Mediterranean (previously). Logistical movement through the Kerch Strait continues (previously). The situation in Tripoli, Libya, has led to the evacuation of civilian planes from Mitiga International Airport. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 commemorates the Day of the Black Sea Fleet. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a screenshot of a news article quoting Patrushev on the Black Sea Fleet successfully fulfilling tasks in the "SMO." Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) discusses potential for Turkey to provide oil and gas from Syria to the US, potentially impacting naval logistics and control.
• Air Defense Activity: Ukraine reports shooting down a significant number of Russian UAVs and destroying Russian air defense systems (previously). Russian sources claim their air defense systems are hitting Ukrainian UAVs and downing guided aerial bombs. The US has approved the transfer of 100 Patriot missiles to Ukraine (previously). The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of 74 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles, 8 US-made JDAM guided aerial bombs, and one HIMARS MLRS projectile over the past day. Colonelcassad shares photos related to an SA-6 Gainful system, relevant to air defense.
• Artillery Activity: Heavy artillery shelling continues on both sides. Russian MoD footage includes footage of Giatsint-B towed howitzer crews, Grad and Uragan MLRS crews in action. Reports of ongoing shelling in the Tetkino area of Kursk. Военкор Котенок reports on Ukrainian artillery shelling impacting residents in Kursk Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of 13 field artillery guns and mortars over the past day across all directions. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports over 54,018 enemy shellings in the Zaporizhzhia region since the beginning of 2025 (likely a typo for 2022).
• Anti-Personnel Mines: Reports suggest Ukrainian forces are deploying new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction, described as resembling lighters or small anti-tank mines and allegedly supplied by Western partners.
• Mining: Народная милиция ДНР claims a Ukrainian armored vehicle was damaged by a mine before being destroyed by a drone.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

• Ceasefire and Negotiation Discussions: Discussions regarding a potential ceasefire and negotiations continue amidst conflicting signals. While diplomatic efforts persist (Zelenskyy-Erdogan call, Turkish mediation efforts), messages on Russian drones explicitly stating "There will be no truce!" directly contradict diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire (previously). STERNENKO reports that the Kremlin will announce Russia's representatives for the Istanbul talks when Putin deems it necessary, and notes speculation about Lavrov and Ushakov. Colonelcassad also reports that the Russian delegation in Istanbul will be led by Lavrov and Ushakov. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that Russia continues to prepare for the Istanbul talks and that the Kremlin will announce who will represent Russia when Putin deems it necessary. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 echoes Peskov's statement on announcing representatives. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) claims that Russia made it clear that a delegation led by Yury Ushakov will go to Istanbul, and portrays Zelenskyy's desire to meet Putin as an obstacle to peace talks. Alex Parker Returns comments on the ongoing preparations for Istanbul talks and Peskov's statement, expressing skepticism about the process. РБК-Україна reports that Andriy Yermak states Russia has given no answer regarding Putin's participation in Istanbul talks and that his refusal would signal Russia's unwillingness for peace.
• International Support for Ukraine: The EU intends to allocate €900 million from frozen Russian assets for weapons and ammunition for Ukraine, in addition to previous investments in the defense industry (previously). The US has approved Germany's transfer of 100 Patriot and 125 long-range missiles (likely for HIMARS) to Ukraine (previously). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on a Ukraine Recovery Conference in Verona, Italy. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is actively preparing for the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025, highlighting international partnerships for recovery. STERNENKO shares an article discussing how the US could disrupt Russian weapons production by targeting the supply of tantalum, implying the need for continued international efforts to pressure Russia. РБК-Україна reports that US tariffs have significantly impacted Slovakia and Hungary, two countries with ties to Russia, potentially influencing their stance on the conflict and aid to Ukraine.
• Russia-Moldova Relations: Maria Zakharova has strongly condemned the mention of Russia as a party to the Transnistrian conflict in new Moldovan history textbooks. This indicates continued diplomatic tension. TASS reports on criminal cases against the head of Gagauzia and speculation that these could be used by the Moldovan authorities to gain control over the autonomy.
• Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Discussion around potential direct negotiations continues, with differing conditions from each side. Messages on Russian drones explicitly stating "There will be no truce!" directly contradict diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire (previously). STERNENKO and Colonelcassad report on the likely Russian delegation for the Istanbul talks. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reiterate Peskov's statement on announcing representatives. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) comments on the Russian delegation for Istanbul talks. Alex Parker Returns comments on the preparations for Istanbul talks. РБК-Україна reports that Andriy Yermak states Russia has given no answer regarding Putin's participation in Istanbul talks and that his refusal would signal Russia's unwillingness for peace.
• Internal Ukrainian Politics: President Zelenskyy has excluded Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk from the composition of the Stavka of the Commander-in-Chief. This signifies a personnel change at a high level within Ukraine's defense leadership structure. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on a Ukraine Recovery Conference. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports on "Madyar" receiving the Hero of Ukraine award. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, citing a Ukrainian MP, claims high levels of corruption within Ukrainian TCCs. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention of two individuals suspected of state treason, alleging they were agents of the FSB. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is actively preparing for the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025, focusing on recovery and highlighting the impact of the conflict on the region.
• Internal Russian Issues: Reports of internal security concerns continue (Kaluga incident, previously). Adam Kadyrov has reportedly received another medal. Claims of a Polish mercenary being found in Kursk Oblast could be used to support narratives about foreign involvement against Russia. The conviction of six Bulgarians for spying for Russia in the UK highlights alleged Russian intelligence activities operating abroad. ASTRA reports the sentencing of the former head of the traffic police in Stavropol Krai for corruption. ASTRA reports on the court ruling regarding the lawsuit by Ekaterina Mizulina against bloggers. TASS reports on Putin's instructions regarding culture and arts. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a raid targeting migrants for military recruitment. News of a death from poisoning after visiting a cafe in Leningrad Oblast is reported by TASS (previously). Northern.Reality reports on the заочное sentencing of former bank owner Sergei Pugachev (previously). ASTRA reports the заочное sentencing of former bank owner Sergei Pugachev. Филолог в засаде comments on internal Russian military discussions and potential areas for reform. ТАСС has compiled photos and videos of light shows in honor of Victory Day. Два майора shares photos and videos of "frontline cats." Полиция Хабаровского края provides an update on the new procedure for submitting electronic appeals to the Interior Ministry. Глеб Никитин reports on a meeting with a business ombudsman in Nizhny Novgorod and notes a decrease in administrative pressure on businesses. Alex Parker Returns reports a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and ASTRA report on escaped former prisoners from a military training ground in Rostov Oblast. TASS reports on a temporary closure of a bar in Perm due to sanitary violations following the discovery of a deceased person. Новости Москвы reports a raven attack on a teenager in Ramenky. TASS reports on sanitary violations in a cafe in Leningrad Oblast where a child died from poisoning. STERNENKO shares an article discussing how the US could disrupt Russian weapons production by targeting the supply of tantalum. TASS reports the State Duma adopted a law on out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants and veterans.
• Russia-Belarus Relations: Close cooperation reported with plans for a Belarusian Consulate General (previously). An international boxing tournament in Bryansk involving Russian and Belarusian силові відомства ( силові відомства) highlights continued cooperation and joint events (previously). A trip for Russian children to Minsk focusing on shared history reinforces these ties (previously).
• UK-Russia Relations: Six Bulgarians have been convicted and sentenced for spying for Russia in the UK, highlighting alleged Russian intelligence activities and straining relations.
• Russia-Lithuania Relations: Military exercises in Lithuania described by Russia as being directed against them indicate increased tension and military posturing in the Baltic region.
• Hungary-Ukraine Relations: Unconfirmed reports of Hungary moving armored vehicles towards the Ukrainian border could indicate increased tension or a shift in Hungary's posture towards the conflict. This requires verification. Alex Parker Returns is leveraging this unconfirmed report in information operations.
• Turkey-Russia Relations: Discussions continue regarding a potential meeting in Turkey (previously). STERNENKO, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, and Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 report on the likely Russian delegation for the Istanbul talks. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) comments on the Russian delegation for Istanbul talks. Alex Parker Returns comments on the preparations for Istanbul talks. РБК-Україна reports that Andriy Yermak states Russia has given no answer regarding Putin's participation in Istanbul talks.
• Other International Developments: Armed clashes in Tripoli, Libya (previously). India-Pakistan conflict remains an external development (previously). ASTRA reports on the outcome of a mayoral election in the Philippines involving a candidate under ICC arrest. Рыбарь reports and analyzes a proposal by Donald Trump to resettle white South African farmers in the US, linking it to US-South Africa relations. Военкор Котенок reports on Donald Trump's trip to Saudi Arabia and potential meetings. Fighterbomber comments on the US-Ukraine agreement on mineral resources. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) discusses potential for Turkey to provide oil and gas from Syria to the US in exchange for sanctions relief against a Syrian group, questioning the narrative of this group. РБК-Україна reports that US tariffs have significantly impacted Slovakia and Hungary.
• Judicial System (Russia): ASTRA reports the sentencing of the former head of the traffic police in Stavropol Krai for corruption. ASTRA reports on the court ruling regarding the lawsuit by Ekaterina Mizulina against bloggers. Northern.Reality reports on the заочное sentencing of former bank owner Sergei Pugachev (previously). ASTRA reports the заочное sentencing of former bank owner Sergei Pugachev.
• Financial Sector (Ukraine): Discussion regarding changes to limits on card transfers and payments via IBAN (previously).
• Financial Sector (Russia): Reports on Sber and VTB canceling commissions for developers on preferential mortgage programs (previously).
• Ukraine-US Relations: РБК-Україна reports on Ukraine's parliament supporting changes to the Budget Code for an agreement with the US on mineral resources (previously). Fighterbomber comments on this agreement (previously). STERNENKO shares an article discussing how the US could disrupt Russian weapons production by targeting the supply of tantalum.
• Demographics (Ukraine): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights the severe demographic impact of the war on Ukraine, with deaths significantly exceeding births in 2024.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

• Internal Security: Alleged involvement of Russian special services in a fire in Warsaw as accused by Poland (reported previously). Adam Kadyrov has reportedly received another medal. Claims of a Polish mercenary being found in Kursk Oblast could be used to support narratives about foreign involvement against Russia. The conviction of six Bulgarians for spying for Russia in the UK highlights alleged Russian intelligence activities operating abroad. ASTRA reports the sentencing of the former head of the traffic police in Stavropol Krai for corruption. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention of suspected FSB agents in Dnipro and Kramatorsk. News of a death from poisoning after visiting a cafe in Leningrad Oblast is reported by TASS (previously). Northern.Reality reports on the заочное sentencing of former bank owner Sergei Pugachev (previously). ASTRA reports the заочное sentencing of former bank owner Sergei Pugachev. Филолог в засаде comments on internal Russian military discussions and potential areas for reform. ТАСС has compiled photos and videos of light shows in honor of Victory Day. Два майора shares photos and videos of "frontline cats." Полиция Хабаровского края provides an update on the new procedure for submitting electronic appeals to the Interior Ministry. Глеб Никитин reports on a meeting with a business ombudsman in Nizhny Novgorod and notes a decrease in administrative pressure on businesses. Alex Parker Returns reports a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and ASTRA report on escaped former prisoners from a military training ground in Rostov Oblast. TASS reports on a temporary closure of a bar in Perm due to sanitary violations following the discovery of a deceased person. Новости Москвы reports a raven attack on a teenager in Ramenky. TASS reports on sanitary violations in a cafe in Leningrad Oblast where a child died from poisoning. Север.Реалии reports on a new protocol for "discrediting" the army against a blockade survivor in St. Petersburg. Colonelcassad shares a video from a captured Ukrainian phone allegedly showing brutal treatment of a Ukrainian soldier by his comrades in Kursk Oblast.
• Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian forces claim advances and the liberation of Kotlyarovka (previously) and Mirolyubovka. Russian artillery and missile systems are actively engaged. Russian military bloggers claim Ukrainian forces are using new anti-personnel mines. Russian sources are promoting the development of new domestic electric motors for drones (previously). Russian MoD footage showcases various military units in action, likely for propaganda purposes. DeepState reports Russian advances in Toretsk, near Romanivka, and Novoolekivka. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports on fighting in the Toretsk area, claiming Russian control but ongoing Ukrainian counter-attack attempts. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle by an FPV drone after hitting a mine. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims significant Ukrainian losses across all operational zones and the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery workshop. Сливочный каприз claims Russian advances in the Velikaya Novosyolka - Zelenoye Pole area. Военкор Котенок reports on the challenging environment in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian shelling. Филолог в засаде comments on the integration of modern military technology and tactics. Colonelcassad claims modernized Ukrainian S-200 missiles are used as surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to strike Russian territory. Russian military bloggers claim increasing reports of destroyed Ukrainian equipment in the Kharkiv direction due to drone use. Kotsnews reports on the "Vostok" group of forces' actions near Bogatyr, claiming advances and successful assaults. WarGonzo shares an anecdotal story about using a spoon to start a tank. The Russian Ministry of Defense daily briefing claims liberation of Mirolyubovka and details alleged Ukrainian losses. Colonelcassad shares a video from a captured Ukrainian phone allegedly showing brutal treatment of a Ukrainian soldier by his comrades in Kursk Oblast, likely intended to portray disarray in Ukrainian ranks. Colonelcassad reports on finding weapon caches in DPR, claiming they are for Ukrainian sabotage groups and include NATO-style weapons.
• Casualty Reports and Morale: Authorities in Bashkortostan have acknowledged the deaths of five thousand residents in the war (previously). Ukrainian intelligence intercept reports significant losses and low morale in a Russian unit in Bryansk Oblast (previously). Death of a Ukrainian soldier reported near Toretsk (previously). Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reports the alleged demobilization of several Russian officers. Военкор Котенок shares a report describing the fear and impact of ongoing shelling on residents in Kursk Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims significant Ukrainian personnel losses across all operational zones over the past day. Colonelcassad shares a video from a captured Ukrainian phone allegedly showing brutal treatment of a Ukrainian soldier by his comrades, potentially aimed at portraying low morale and internal conflict within Ukrainian ranks.
• Logistical and Equipment Issues: The reliance on volunteer support for equipment like motorcycles suggests potential logistical gaps or needs within some Russian units (previously). Ukrainian claims of destroying Russian trucks and "bukhankas" in Donetsk Oblast highlight successful targeting of Russian logistics (previously). Народная милиция ДНР claims a Ukrainian armored vehicle was damaged by a mine before being destroyed by a drone. Военкор Котенок reports that access to Sudzha and dozens of villages in Kursk remains closed due to Ukrainian artillery shelling, impacting daily life and potentially logistics. Fundraising efforts for drones and signal amplifiers are ongoing within Russia, indicating a continued need for such equipment.
• Information Operations: Russia continues to promote narratives about the conflict and internal issues. The Russian MoD is releasing footage of military operations. Maria Zakharova's condemnation of Moldovan textbooks serves a specific narrative about Russia's role in regional conflicts. Adam Kadyrov's receipt of another medal is likely used to promote his status and the security structures he is associated with. Claims of Ukrainian forces using foreign-made aviation bombs on Russian territory and the presence of a Polish mercenary in Kursk Oblast are likely used to portray Ukraine and its allies as aggressors. Messages on Russian drones stating "There will be no truce!" are a direct form of information warfare and propaganda (previously). Updated operational maps shared by Colonelcassad visually represent the conflict from a pro-Russian perspective, highlighting claimed Russian gains. Russia is framing military exercises in Lithuania as being directed against them and is stating they will take countermeasures. Alex Parker Returns' reporting on the unconfirmed Hungarian armor movement near the Ukrainian border, including a subsequent photo and text, suggests a Russian narrative is being formed around this event. ASTRA reports on the court ruling regarding the lawsuit by Ekaterina Mizulina against bloggers, which has implications for the internal information space. TASS reports on Putin's instructions regarding culture and arts, indicating a strategic effort to control information and promote a specific narrative. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a statement from a European Commissioner about the strategic implications of a ceasefire, which is part of the information war. TASS reports on criminal cases in Gagauzia, Moldova, which can be used to portray political instability in a neighboring country. Alex Parker Returns shares commentary contrasting the perception of World War II and the Ukraine conflict, touching on the brutality and potentially serving as commentary on narratives surrounding it. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a raid targeting migrants for military recruitment, which can be framed positively for domestic consumption. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle by an FPV drone, likely for propaganda. Colonelcassad claims the liberation of Mirolyubovka and shares a video, which is a clear information operation. Два майора also confirms the liberation of Mirolyubovka, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense. Военкор Котенок reports the liberation of Mirolyubovka, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports on fighting in Toretsk from a pro-Russian perspective. Сливочный каприз claims Russian advances in the Velikaya Novosyolka - Zelenoye Pole area, which is an information operation to claim territorial gains. Военкор Котенок shares a report on the challenging environment in Kursk Oblast, which can be used to highlight the impact of Ukrainian shelling on Russian territory. Рыбарь reports and analyzes a proposal by Donald Trump to resettle white South African farmers in the US, which includes political commentary. Военкор Котенок reports on Donald Trump's trip to Saudi Arabia, including commentary on his potential actions and motivations. Fighterbomber comments on the US-Ukraine agreement on mineral resources and upcoming negotiations, presenting a skeptical and critical perspective. ТАСС has compiled photos and videos of light shows in honor of Victory Day, serving as patriotic propaganda. Два майора shares photos and videos of "frontline cats," likely aimed at humanizing soldiers and boosting morale. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports alleged corruption within Ukrainian TCCs, likely to undermine trust in Ukrainian institutions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 commemorates the Day of the Black Sea Fleet, which is a patriotic and military-focused information piece. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo of social media comments discussing the "mercy" of WWII versus the current conflict, which can be used to highlight critical views within Russia or for propaganda. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on an asphalt concrete plant in occupied Luhansk, and TASS shares video footage of the aftermath, both contributing to the information war. Север.Реалии reports on a new protocol for "discrediting" the army against a blockade survivor in St. Petersburg, highlighting the ongoing crackdown on dissent and information control within Russia. Colonelcassad shares a video from a captured Ukrainian phone allegedly showing brutal treatment of a Ukrainian soldier by his comrades, likely intended to portray disarray in Ukrainian ranks and for propaganda. Colonelcassad reports on finding weapon caches in DPR, claiming they are for Ukrainian sabotage groups and include NATO-style weapons, aimed at portraying Ukraine as engaging in terrorism and receiving Western support for these activities.
• Military Commemoration and Information Operations: Adam Kadyrov was awarded a medal on the 25th anniversary of OMON "Akhmat-Grozny." An international boxing tournament in Bryansk involving Russian and Belarusian силові відомства ( силові відомства) highlights continued cooperation and joint events (previously). A trip for Russian children to Minsk focusing on shared history reinforces these ties (previously). ТАСС has compiled photos and videos of light shows in honor of Victory Day. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 commemorates the Day of the Black Sea Fleet. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video from a military event in Penza on May 9th.
• Political Dynamics: Adam Kadyrov being awarded a medal is a political act highlighting his status. TASS reports on criminal cases in Gagauzia, Moldova, and speculation that these could be used by the Moldovan authorities to gain control over the autonomy, highlighting political tensions in a neighboring country. Рыбарь reports and analyzes a proposal by Donald Trump to resettle white South African farmers in the US, linking it to US-South Africa relations. Военкор Котенок reports on Donald Trump's trip to Saudi Arabia, including commentary on his potential actions and motivations. Fighterbomber comments on the US-Ukraine agreement on mineral resources and upcoming negotiations, presenting a skeptical and critical perspective. Глеб Никитин reports on a meeting with a business ombudsman in Nizhny Novgorod and notes a decrease in administrative pressure on businesses. Север.Реалии reports on a new protocol for "discrediting" the army against a blockade survivor in St. Petersburg, highlighting potential political repression.
• Industrial Capacity: An infographic indicates a significant increase in production at Russian defense plants since 2022 across aircraft, explosives, and artillery sectors (previously). This points to a substantial military-industrial capacity and efforts to sustain the conflict. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery workshop. STERNENKO shares an article discussing how the US could disrupt Russian weapons production by targeting the supply of tantalum.
• Naval Strategy: Russia's reiteration of its ambitious shipbuilding strategy emphasizes a long-term focus on strengthening its naval power (previously). Два майора discusses the potential use of naval escorts for Russian merchant ships (previously). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 commemorates the Day of the Black Sea Fleet. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 shares a screenshot of a news article quoting Patrushev on the Black Sea Fleet successfully fulfilling tasks in the "SMO." Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and kuulumisia - SÄHKEЕТ/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) discusses potential for Turkey to provide oil and gas from Syria to the US, which could have implications for naval control and energy security.
• Veteran Support Issues: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a veteran in Cheboksary is facing difficulties finding employment after returning from the front (previously). ТАСС reports on the Minister of Agriculture in Yakutia apologizing for "unworthy gifts" to veterans (previously). TASS reports the State Duma adopted a law on out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants and veterans.
• Recruitment: МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a raid in Krasnoyarsk where migrants who received citizenship were sent to military registration offices and received summons for service. This indicates Russian efforts to recruit personnel. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники shares footage of this recruitment process. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and ASTRA report on escaped former prisoners from a military training ground in Rostov Oblast, highlighting challenges with recruiting and retaining personnel from this group.
• Military Strategy and Tactics (Internal Discussion): Филолог в засаде comments on the integration of modern military technology and tactics and the need for better interaction between branches of troops. Филолог в засаде later reiterates his previous posts on changes in artillery operations. WarGonzo shares an anecdotal story about using a spoon to start a tank, highlighting adaptability in the field. Kotsnews reports on the "Vostok" group of forces' actions near Bogatyr, describing their tactics, including swift assaults and drone use.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

• Humanitarian Situation: Civilian casualties reported due to alleged Ukrainian drone attacks on infrastructure in Luhansk (previously). Военкор Котенок reports on the challenging environment in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian shelling, impacting residents and causing fear. ASTRA reports the sentencing of the former head of the traffic police in Stavropol Krai for corruption, which can impact public services. News of a death from poisoning after visiting a cafe in Leningrad Oblast is reported by TASS (previously). Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on an asphalt concrete plant in occupied Luhansk, claiming civilian casualties. Олександр Вілкул highlights the civilian impact of a ballistic missile strike in Kryvyi Rih, including many child casualties and injuries. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports over 54,018 enemy shellings in the Zaporizhzhia region since the beginning of 2025 (likely a typo for 2022) and highlights the large number of people under occupation.
• Military Support (Ukraine): The EU is allocating an additional €900 million from frozen Russian assets for weapons and ammunition (previously). Taiwan is allocating $2 million for demining efforts (previously). A meeting in Kharkiv Oblast discusses regional recovery, which indirectly supports the overall Ukrainian effort (previously). DeepState reported the creation of a specialized EU-Ukraine Defense Cooperation Task Force to accelerate the production of drones, missiles, and UAVs, with significant EU investment (€1 billion already, plus €900 million expected) funded by frozen Russian assets (previously). ASTRA highlights Ukrainian Magura V5/V7 maritime drones and their use in destroying Russian military assets (previously). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that the expanding "Pentagon" drone unit is recruiting (previously). The US has approved the transfer of 100 Patriot and 125 long-range missiles to Ukraine (previously). 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on a Ukraine Recovery Conference in Verona, Italy. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports on "Madyar" receiving the Hero of Ukraine award. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming to show a HIMARS strike in Kursk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ showcases a drone with a grenade launcher. STERNENKO highlights increased Russian assaults on the Pokrovsk direction and requests donations. РБК-Україна reports on Ukraine's parliament supporting changes to the Budget Code for an agreement with the US on mineral resources. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is actively preparing for the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025, focusing on recovery and attracting investment.
• Military Support (Russia): Russian military bloggers are fundraising for equipment for fighters on the Kursk front (previously). "Humanitarian Aid Omsk" and "Народная милиция ДНР" report on civilian/volunteer support and delivery of household appliances to Russian military units (previously). Colonelcassad reported on significant support provided to units of the "Vostok" group of forces, including drones, electronic warfare systems, vehicles, ground assault robots, and personal protective equipment, funded by subscribers and friends, and launched a new fundraising appeal for an assault infantry platoon (previously). TASS reports on Putin's instructions regarding state support for culture and arts, which can be framed as supporting national identity linked to the military. Два майора shares photos and videos of "frontline cats" sent from the front, implying volunteer support or the provision of comfort items. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on fundraising for a drone and signal amplifier for a comrade.
• Rehabilitation: A meeting in Kharkiv Oblast discusses rehabilitation services for veterans (previously).
• Veteran Support Issues (Russia): МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports a veteran in Cheboksary is facing difficulties finding employment after returning from the front. ТАСС reports on the Minister of Agriculture in Yakutia apologizing for "unworthy gifts" to veterans. TASS reports the State Duma adopted a law on out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants and veterans.
• Support for Ukrainian POWs and Families: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reported a meeting with families of defenders in the Volyn region to discuss prisoner exchanges, missing persons procedures, and communication with official structures (previously). Сили оборони Півдня України shares a report about a Ukrainian servicemember from Kherson, highlighting the impact of the war on families and the support they receive.
• Post-Conflict Recovery: 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reports on a Ukraine Recovery Conference in Verona, Italy, focusing on effective reconstruction strategies, energy efficiency, environmental friendliness, the role of communities and regions, innovation, business support, partnerships, and attracting investments. This highlights international efforts and planning for Ukraine's post-conflict recovery. TASS reports that Putin has instructed the restoration of cultural heritage sites in territories affected by combat and shelling (previously). 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 is actively preparing for the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025, focusing on the region's recovery, including housing for internally displaced persons and energy decentralization.
• Tactical Medicine (Russia): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a detailed post discussing tactical medicine practices within the Russian military. This indicates ongoing efforts to improve medical support for combat personnel.
• Support for Civilians (Ukraine): Discussion regarding financial assistance for adopting a child (previously). Олександр Вілкул highlights the civilian impact of a ballistic missile strike in Kryvyi Rih, including many child casualties. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 highlights the need for housing for internally displaced persons in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Veteran Support (Ukraine): Discussion on helping wounded soldiers return to life and service (previously). Discussion on support for wounded and rehabilitated soldiers (previously).

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

• Russian Forces: Continuing intense ground assaults across multiple directions, utilizing artillery, guided bombs, and a high volume of drones. Claiming the complete liberation of Kotlyarovka (previously) and Mirolyubovka. DeepState reports Russian advances in Toretsk, near Romanivka, and Novoolekivka. Claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment and inflicting losses. Employing tactical aviation. Utilizing Iskander-M missile systems, Giatsint-B howitzers, Grad and Uragan MLRS. Russian MoD footage showcases these units in action. Facing Ukrainian counterattacks and resistance. Russian forces claim advances and territorial control, including the complete liberation of Kotlyarovka and Mirolyubovka and recent advances in Toretsk, Romanivka, and Novoolekivka. Messages on Russian drones explicitly stating "There will be no truce!" directly contradict diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire (previously). Updated operational maps provide visual details on Russian positions and claimed control. Reports suggest Ukraine is deploying new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction, which Russian forces will need to counter. Народная милиция ДНР claims destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle by an FPV drone after hitting a mine, highlighting combined arms tactics. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims significant Ukrainian losses across all operational zones and the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery workshop. Сливочный каприз claims Russian advances in the Velikaya Novosyolka - Zelenoye Pole area, involving infantry units and shelling Ukrainian positions. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА reports on fighting in the Toretsk area, claiming Russian control but ongoing Ukrainian counter-attack attempts. Военкор Котенок reports on Ukrainian artillery shelling in Kursk Oblast. МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reports on a raid in Krasnoyarsk where migrants were sent to military registration offices and received summons for service, indicating recruitment efforts. Филолог в засаде comments on the integration of modern military technology and tactics and the need for better interaction between branches of troops. Филолог в засаде later reiterates his previous posts on changes in artillery operations. Два майора shares photos and videos of "frontline cats," which can be seen as part of troop welfare. Russian military bloggers claim increasing reports of destroyed Ukrainian equipment in the Kharkiv direction due to drone use. Kotsnews reports on the "Vostok" group of forces' actions near Bogatyr, describing their tactics, including swift assaults and drone use, and outlining the strategic importance of this area for targeting the T0428 highway. WarGonzo shares an anecdotal story about using a spoon to start a tank, highlighting adaptability in the field. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and ASTRA report on escaped former prisoners from a military training ground in Rostov Oblast, highlighting challenges with personnel management, including those recruited from correctional facilities. Colonelcassad shares a video from a captured Ukrainian phone allegedly showing brutal treatment of a Ukrainian soldier by his comrades, likely intended to portray disarray in Ukrainian ranks. Colonelcassad reports on finding weapon caches in DPR, claiming they are for Ukrainian sabotage groups and include NATO-style weapons.
• Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against Russian assaults, reporting successful repels and significant Russian losses. Conducting counterintelligence operations and detaining suspected Russian agents. Utilizing air defense to counter Russian aerial attacks. Conducting drone attacks in Russian border regions. Engaging in training exercises for ground forces (previously). Utilizing maritime drones (previously). Seeking international support and military aid. Experiencing civilian casualties from Russian drone attacks and shelling (previously). Claiming destruction of Russian equipment, including air defense systems and boats (previously). Ukrainian sources claim the destruction of Russian assault groups in Zaporizhzhia using SDB bombs (previously). Ukraine has excluded Lieutenant General Havryliuk from the Stavka. Ukraine is receiving significant military aid from the EU and the US (Patriot and HIMARS missiles). Reports suggest Ukrainian forces are deploying new anti-personnel mines on the Sumy direction. Claims of Ukrainian aviation bomb strikes and HIMARS use in Kursk Oblast. Claims of a Polish mercenary fighting on the Ukrainian side in Kursk Oblast. Офіс Генерального прокурора reports the detention of suspected FSB agents who transmitted data on Ukrainian military locations. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reports on "Madyar" receiving the Hero of Ukraine award, highlighting recognition of military achievements. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming to show a HIMARS strike in Kursk Oblast. Оперативний ЗСУ showcases a drone with a grenade launcher. Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reports the alleged demobilization of several Russian officers. Сили оборони Півдня України shares a report about a Ukrainian servicemember from Kherson, highlighting individual experiences and training. Николаевский Ванёк reports on a shot down "Phoenix" drone. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on an asphalt concrete plant in occupied Luhansk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України warns of a drone threat in Kharkiv Oblast, which was later lifted. Colonelcassad claims modernized Ukrainian S-200 missiles are used as surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to strike Russian territory. РБК-Україна reports the capture of an Uzbek national fighting for Russia on the Lyman direction. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports on an incident in Kaluga, Russia, allegedly involving a woman setting fire to National Guard vehicles. Colonelcassad shares a video from a captured Ukrainian phone allegedly showing brutal treatment of a Ukrainian soldier by his comrades in Kursk Oblast, potentially highlighting internal issues within Ukrainian forces. Colonelcassad reports on finding weapon caches in DPR, claiming they are for Ukrainian sabotage groups and include NATO-style weapons.
• Foreign Fighters: Claims of a Polish mercenary being found in Kursk Oblast. РБК-Україна reports the capture of an Uzbek national fighting for Russia on the Lyman direction.
• Equipment and Tactics: Use of various types of drones (strike, reconnaissance, FPV, "Baba Yaga," aircraft-type, quadcopters) by both sides. Employment of guided aerial bombs (FAB-3000, KABs), artillery, MLRS, and MANPADS. Use of boats for sabotage and reconnaissance (previously). Potential use of ATVs by Ukrainian infantry (targeted by Russian drones, previously). Poddubny emphasizes the enemy's (likely Ukrainian) extensive use of heavy drones capable of carrying significant payloads on the Krasnoarmeysk direction and the priority of destroying them (previously). STERnenko highlights the effectiveness and cost-efficiency of using FPV interceptors to down Russian Shahed drones (previously). TSAPLIЕNKO_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlights the effectiveness of Igla MANPADS (previously). Dva Mayora reports on Ukrainian SSO tactics and equipment in Kursk, mentioning they are trained by Western instructors (previously). ARKHANGEL SPETSNAZA highlights the use of FPV drones for targeting enemy personnel and demonstrates the features and capabilities of a captured American Mark 19 automatic grenade launcher and compares it to the Russian AGS-17 (previously). The Russian Ministry of Defense highlights the effectiveness of Msta-S self-propelled howitzers, and mentions the use of tube artillery and cluster ammunition by Russian forces and the destruction of "Baba Yaga" type heavy UAVs in the liberation of Kotlyarovka, and the use of FPV drones and reconnaissance quadcopters (previously). Dnevnik Desantnika reports that enemy positions in Bilovody are well-fortified (previously). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming to show a HIMARS strike. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video showcasing the claimed first combat use of a drone with a grenade launcher. Президентська бригада ЗСУ shares a video from the 4th Battalion claiming successful FPV drone strikes against enemy infantry (previously). Colonelcassad shares a video of a "Solntsepyok" system operating on the Pokrovsk direction (previously). Voin DV reports on Russian units destroying a mortar crew position and an ammunition depot (previously), and claims destruction of a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone and a pickup truck with personnel by FPV drones (previously). Народная милиция ДНР claims a Ukrainian armored vehicle was damaged by a mine before being destroyed by an FPV drone. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery workshop. Colonelcassad claims modernized Ukrainian S-200 missiles are used as surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to strike Russian territory. Fundraising efforts for drones and signal amplifiers are ongoing within Russia. Russian military bloggers claim increasing reports of destroyed Ukrainian equipment in the Kharkiv direction due to drone use. Kotsnews reports on the "Vostok" group of forces' tactics near Bogatyr, including swift assaults and drone use. WarGonzo shares an anecdotal story about using a spoon to start a tank, highlighting adaptability in the field. Colonelcassad reports on finding weapon caches in DPR, claiming they are for Ukrainian sabotage groups and include NATO-style weapons.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

• The continued intensity of ground combat across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, underscores the strategic importance of this area. Russia's official claim of liberating Mirolyubovka, if accurate, represents tangible tactical gains and contributes to their overall strategic objective of securing the Donbas region. The focus on pushing towards the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast also indicates a potential strategic aim to gain fire control over key logistical hubs. DeepState's report of Russian advances in Toretsk, near Romanivka, and Novoolekivka confirms recent tactical gains in specific sectors, which have strategic implications for controlling key populated areas and logistical routes. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's report on fighting in Toretsk from a pro-Russian perspective provides insight into claimed Russian progress and ongoing Ukrainian resistance in a key urban area. Сливочный каприз claiming Russian advances in the Velikaya Novosyolka - Zelenoye Pole area suggests ongoing Russian offensive actions aimed at expanding their control in western Donetsk. STERNENKO highlighting increased Russian assaults on the Pokrovsk direction underscores this area as a current focus of Russian offensive efforts. Kotsnews reports on the "Vostok" group of forces' actions near Bogatyr, claiming advances and outlining the strategic importance of this area for targeting the T0428 highway, which is a key logistical route.
• The ongoing diplomatic discussions regarding a potential ceasefire and negotiations highlight the continued international dimension of the conflict. However, the discovery of messages on Russian drones explicitly stating "There will be no truce!" (previously) and the uncertainty surrounding the level of Russian representation for the Istanbul talks, as reported by STERNENKO and echoed by other sources, are powerful counter-signals that directly undermine the prospects for immediate de-escalation and suggest a continued Russian commitment to military objectives over a negotiated settlement in the short term. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) commentary on the Russian delegation and Zelenskyy's actions further highlights the information war surrounding potential negotiations. РБК-Україна reports that Andriy Yermak states Russia has given no answer regarding Putin's participation in Istanbul talks and that his refusal would signal Russia's unwillingness for peace, reiterating Ukraine's focus on the outcome of these talks as a key indicator of Russian intentions.
• The large-scale Russian drone attacks, coupled with continued heavy shelling and aviation strikes, demonstrate Russia's reliance on these methods to degrade Ukrainian defenses and inflict casualties. Ukraine's ability to counter these efforts through air defense and effective targeting with drones and SDB bombs highlights the ongoing adaptation and technological aspects of the conflict. Claims of Ukrainian forces using foreign-made aviation bombs and HIMARS in Kursk Oblast (previously), if verified, would represent a potential strategic escalation in the types of munitions used by Ukraine against targets within Russia. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming to show a HIMARS strike on a bridge in Kursk Oblast, which, if confirmed, is a strategic strike aimed at disrupting Russian logistics in a critical border region. Оперативний ЗСУ showcasing a drone with a grenade launcher highlights innovation in Ukrainian tactics and equipment, which can have strategic implications for future engagements. Народная милиция ДНР claiming destruction of a Ukrainian armored vehicle by an FPV drone after hitting a mine highlights the effectiveness of combined arms tactics. The Russian Ministry of Defense claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery workshop indicates strategic targeting of Ukrainian military production capabilities. Военкор Котенок reporting on the challenging environment in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian shelling underscores the strategic impact of Ukrainian actions on Russian border regions. Оперативний ЗСУ reporting a drone attack on an asphalt concrete plant in occupied Luhansk suggests Ukrainian targeting of logistical or industrial infrastructure in occupied territories. Повітряні Сили ЗС України warning of a drone threat in Kharkiv Oblast, and its subsequent lifting, indicates ongoing Russian aerial reconnaissance or attack capabilities and Ukrainian air defense responsiveness in this area. Colonelcassad claiming modernized Ukrainian S-200 missiles are used as surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to strike Russian territory, if confirmed, would represent a significant development in Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities and a potential new threat to targets within Russia. Russian military bloggers claim increasing reports of destroyed Ukrainian equipment in the Kharkiv direction due to drone use, suggesting Russian tactical success in countering Ukrainian forces in this area. Fundraising efforts for drones and signal amplifiers within Russia highlight the ongoing strategic importance of these technologies and the resource demands of the conflict.
• The exclusion of Lieutenant General Havryliuk from Ukraine's Stavka is a notable change in high-level personnel and could indicate a shift in operational planning or leadership structure at the highest level of the Ukrainian military.
• The EU's allocation of €900 million for weapons and ammunition, combined with the US approval of German transfer of Patriot and HIMARS missiles (previously), represent significant and tangible strategic support for Ukraine's defense capabilities. This aid directly contributes to Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense and potentially conduct offensive operations. 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) reporting on a Ukraine Recovery Conference in Verona highlights international efforts and planning for Ukraine's post-conflict recovery, which is a strategic long-term consideration. РБК-Україна reporting on Ukraine's parliament supporting changes to the Budget Code for an agreement with the US on mineral resources suggests a strategic focus on leveraging natural resources for economic support and potentially military funding. 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦's active preparation for the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025, focusing on critical infrastructure and internally displaced persons, underscores the strategic importance of post-conflict recovery and international partnerships for the long-term stability and resilience of Ukraine.
• The diplomatic tension between Russia and Moldova over historical textbook content (previously), and the reports of criminal cases in Gagauzia (Moldova), reflect broader geopolitical dynamics and Russia's sensitivity regarding its historical narrative and influence in neighboring countries.
• The claims of a Polish mercenary being found in Kursk Oblast and the alleged use of foreign-made aviation bombs on Russian territory are likely to be leveraged by Russia in information operations to portray the conflict as a proxy war involving NATO and other foreign powers, with the strategic aim of garnering domestic support and potentially influencing international perceptions. РБК-Україна reporting the capture of an Uzbek national fighting for Russia provides counter-information on foreign fighter involvement.
• Updated operational maps of Donetsk Oblast provide crucial visual information on the tactical situation, allowing for a better understanding of the current state of the front lines, areas of contestation, and the location of defensive fortifications, which is essential for strategic planning.
• The conviction of six Bulgarians for spying for Russia in the UK (previously) highlights alleged Russian intelligence activities operating abroad and has strategic implications for counterintelligence efforts and national security in NATO countries.
• The reported deployment of new anti-personnel mines by Ukraine on the Sumy direction is a tactical adaptation with strategic implications for slowing down potential Russian advances and creating defensive obstacles in border regions.
• The armed clashes in Tripoli, Libya, indicate a new area of instability and conflict that could have broader regional implications, potentially drawing the attention of international actors or impacting energy markets.
• The military exercises in Lithuania and Russia's reaction to them highlight increased military activity and tension in the Baltic region, which is a strategically important area bordering both Russia and NATO countries.
• The unconfirmed reports of Hungary moving armored vehicles towards the Ukrainian border, if verified, could be a significant strategic development, indicating a potential shift in Hungary's stance or an attempt to exert pressure related to the conflict. This requires careful monitoring and verification. Alex Parker Returns' immediate commentary on this unconfirmed event suggests it is being quickly integrated into Russian information operations.
• The detention of suspected FSB agents in Dnipro and Kramatorsk highlights the ongoing intelligence war within Ukraine and Russia's alleged efforts to gather information on Ukrainian military locations and movements. This underscores the importance of counterintelligence. Colonelcassad reports on finding weapon caches in DPR, claiming they are for Ukrainian sabotage groups, which aligns with Russian narratives about Ukrainian internal threats and sabotage.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense claiming significant Ukrainian losses across all operational zones is a key component of their information strategy to portray the conflict as favorable to Russia. Analyzing these claims against other available information is crucial for assessing the actual impact of operations. The Russian Ministry of Defense daily briefing explicitly states claimed Ukrainian losses across all operational zones, which is a direct strategic communication effort.
• Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 reporting on "Madyar" receiving the Hero of Ukraine award is strategically important for Ukrainian morale and countering Russian information operations targeting him.
• The ASTRA report on the court ruling regarding the lawsuit by Ekaterina Mizulina against bloggers highlights internal Russian dynamics related to information control and dissent, which can have implications for the broader political landscape.
• TASS reporting on Putin's instructions regarding culture and arts indicates a strategic effort to utilize these areas for ideological purposes and promote a specific narrative supporting the war effort.
• ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS sharing a statement from a European Commissioner about the strategic implications of a ceasefire reflects discussions within the international community about the long-term consequences of the conflict and potential de-escalation scenarios.
• The ASTRA report on the sentencing of the former head of the traffic police in Stavropol Krai highlights significant corruption within Russian law enforcement, which can impact governance and potentially military effectiveness indirectly.
• МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники reporting on a raid targeting migrants for military recruitment is strategically relevant as it indicates Russian efforts to increase manpower for the conflict. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and ASTRA reporting on escaped former prisoners from a military training ground highlights challenges and potential risks associated with Russia's recruitment efforts, particularly from correctional facilities.
• Сили оборони Півдня України sharing a report about a Ukrainian servicemember from Kherson highlights the human element of the conflict and efforts to support and recognize those involved, which is important for morale and public support.
• Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" reporting the alleged demobilization of several Russian officers is a Ukrainian information operation aimed at highlighting Russian losses, particularly among leadership.
• Военкор Котенок sharing a report on the challenging environment in Kursk Oblast due to Ukrainian shelling is likely intended to highlight the impact of the conflict on Russian territory and potentially garner support for increased security measures or offensive actions.
• ASTRA reporting the заочное sentencing of former bank owner Sergei Pugachev highlights ongoing legal proceedings against individuals who have left Russia and are critical of the government.
• Филолог в засаде commenting on internal Russian military discussions about strategy and tactics, including the slow integration of modern approaches, is strategically valuable as it provides insight into potential weaknesses or areas of friction within the Russian military command and planning.
• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reporting alleged high levels of corruption within Ukrainian TCCs is a significant information operation aimed at undermining public trust in Ukrainian institutions and potentially discouraging mobilization efforts.
• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 sharing a detailed post on tactical medicine reflects efforts within the Russian military community to improve medical support for combat personnel, which is strategically relevant for maintaining force effectiveness and minimizing casualties.
• Colonelcassad claiming modernized Ukrainian S-200 missiles are used as surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to strike Russian territory, if confirmed, could lead to a reassessment of the threat to Russian territory and potential adjustments in defensive strategies.
• ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS highlighting the severe demographic impact of the war on Ukraine in 2024 is a critical strategic consideration for Ukraine's long-term sustainability, manpower, and recovery efforts.
• TASS reporting the State Duma adopted a law on out-of-court bankruptcy for SVO participants and veterans is a strategic move by the Russian government to address potential financial hardship among those involved in the conflict, likely aimed at maintaining morale and support.
• Alex Parker Returns reporting a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm involving migrants, and the subsequent TASS report on the temporary closure of a bar, highlights potential internal social tensions and security concerns within Russia that could have indirect strategic implications.
• Олександр Вілкул highlighting the civilian impact of a ballistic missile strike in Kryvyi Rih, including many child casualties, is a powerful strategic communication effort aimed at underscoring the human cost of the conflict and garnering international sympathy and condemnation.
• Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) discussing potential for Turkey to provide oil and gas from Syria to the US in exchange for sanctions relief against a Syrian group, and questioning the narrative, introduces a complex geopolitical dynamic involving multiple actors and potential shifts in alliances or energy flows, which could have strategic implications for regional stability.
• РБК-Україна reporting that US tariffs have significantly impacted Slovakia and Hungary, two countries with ties to Russia, could influence their economic stability and potentially their political stance towards the conflict and aid to Ukraine.

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Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.