Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 12, 2025, 08:26 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment remains characterized by intense ground combat, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. Persistent Russian aerial activity, including drone and guided aerial bomb (KAB) usage, continues, alongside Ukrainian efforts to counter these threats. Significant diplomatic activity continues, with various actors discussing potential peace talks and ceasing hostilities, though with conflicting public stances and persistent skepticism. Information operations remain a key aspect of the conflict, with both sides promoting their narratives. Civilian casualties and damage from shelling and drone attacks continue to be reported. Internal Russian issues, including security concerns and legal developments, are also reported. Military modernization efforts are highlighted by both sides.
Significant new information includes:
Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian HIMARS system in Sumy Oblast near the border with Kursk Oblast, which they claim was used to strike Rylsk. This claim is being accompanied by video evidence from the Russian Ministry of Defense and a Russian military blogger.
Poland's closure of the Russian Consulate General in Krakow, citing alleged Russian special services involvement in a sabotage act. This is a significant diplomatic escalation.
Brazilian President Lula da Silva offering himself as a mediator for negotiations on Ukraine during a meeting with Russian President Putin.
Reports from a Ukrainian deputy claiming that Ukraine has held direct, high-level, and secret negotiations with Russia on the Arabian Peninsula multiple times since 2022, even in 2024, although these talks have reportedly failed.
Reports that "disgraced" Russian General Surovikin was seen in Algeria during Victory Day events, with a Russian State Duma member claiming Surovikin is working as a military advisor in Africa.
The European Commission signing the first contracts for €1 billion in investments in Ukraine's defense industry, as stated by a Deputy Secretary-General of the European External Action Service.
Ukrainian reporting on the return of prisoners from Russian captivity, specifically mentioning two soldiers from the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade who were exchanged on May 6th.
Russian claims of destroying various Ukrainian assets including a temporary deployment point, a dugout, and drones in the Bogatyr and Alekseevka areas, and disrupting Ukrainian rotation attempts near Gulyaipole.
A report from Ukraine of a drone strike on an energy worker's vehicle in Sumy Oblast, resulting in one fatality.
Reports of increased Russian military cargo movement in the Odesa port area suggesting potential logistical preparations.
Ukraine's GUR reporting details on a new Russian cruise missile ("Banderol") being launched from drones, allegedly using foreign components.
Ukrainian military intelligence actively combating internal sabotage efforts, leading to arrests in Rivne Oblast.
Russian sources reporting continued combat in the South Donetsk direction and the destruction of Ukrainian equipment by MLRS fire in Zaporizhzhia.
Russian military bloggers continue to fundraise for equipment.
Internal Russian reports include an arrest of an ex-senator on fraud charges and a disturbing report of an alleged violent crime in Perm involving migrants.
Russian media continues to portray events through a specific narrative, exemplified by commentary on the Macron video and celebrating LPR day.
Ukrainian forces in the South are reporting significant Russian losses and repelled assaults on various fronts.
Training exercises for Ukrainian infantry are ongoing in Kharkiv Oblast.
More details on the large-scale Russian drone attack confirm impacts in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zhytomyr Oblasts.
Reports from Donetsk Oblast confirm civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure from Russian shelling.
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has reportedly decided to self-dissolve.
New Su-35S fighters have been delivered to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
A report of a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast highlights potential issues with guided munition reliability.
A US-China trade truce is reported.
A report from Russia of the detention of a teenager in Novokuznetsk who allegedly planned a terrorist attack on a military commissariat in collusion with a "terrorist organization connected with Ukraine."
Reports from Zaporizhzhia Oblast regarding Russian drone and KAB attacks on frontline communities, causing damage to a parked vehicle.
A Bloomberg report citing sources suggesting the EU and US will issue a "strong response," including sanctions, if Russia does not cease fire today.
Relaxation of the curfew in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with a shorter duration and exemptions for main highways.
Changes to the Situation from New Messages:
Russia Claims Destruction of Ukrainian HIMARS in Sumy Oblast:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and ТАСС report the destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS MLRS in Sumy Oblast, near Nahornivka, after it allegedly fired on Rylsk in Kursk Oblast. The reports include claims of using reconnaissance UAVs to locate the HIMARS and video evidence of the strike. This, if confirmed, represents a successful Russian counter-battery action against a high-value Ukrainian asset and links it directly to alleged Ukrainian cross-border shelling.
Poland Closes Russian Consulate in Krakow, Citing Alleged Sabotage:Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна report that Poland has decided to close the Russian Consulate General in Krakow. Poland's Foreign Minister and Prime Minister cited evidence of Russian special services committing a criminal act of sabotage against a shopping center near Marywilska in Warsaw. This is a significant diplomatic escalation and a direct accusation of Russian hostile activity on Polish territory, leading to a retaliatory measure. Russia's MFA Spokesperson has stated Russia will respond to these "inadequate steps."
Brazilian President Offers to Mediate:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and ТАСС report that Brazilian President Lula da Silva proposed himself to Putin as a mediator for negotiations on Ukraine. This indicates a continued international effort to find a diplomatic solution and Brazil's willingness to play a role, though the effectiveness of this offer remains to be seen given the stated positions of the parties.
Ukrainian Deputy Claims Secret High-Level Ukraine-Russia Talks Since 2022:Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a claim by Ukrainian Deputy Goncharenko that Ukraine has engaged in direct, high-level, and secret negotiations with Russia on the Arabian Peninsula multiple times since 2022, including in 2024. He states these talks failed for "obvious reasons" he cannot disclose. This information, if accurate, reveals a hidden dimension of diplomatic engagement beyond public knowledge and suggests that while official channels may be stalled, some form of communication has persisted, albeit unsuccessfully.
Russian General Surovikin Reportedly Seen in Algeria, Working as Advisor in Africa:ASTRA reports that "disgraced" General Surovikin was spotted at Victory Day events in Algeria, and a member of the State Duma's defense committee claims he is working as a military advisor in Africa. This provides an update on the status and location of a prominent Russian military figure who had been sidelined after the Wagner mutiny. His potential role as a military advisor in Africa could be strategically relevant to Russia's expanding influence on the continent.
European Commission to Invest €1 Billion in Ukraine's Defense Industry:ТАСС reports that the European Commission has signed the first contracts for €1 billion in investments in Ukraine's defense industrial base. This confirms significant international financial support specifically aimed at boosting Ukraine's domestic arms production capabilities, a key factor in long-term resistance.
Ukrainian Prisoners of War Returned from Russian Captivity:‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» reports the return of two soldiers from their brigade, Hennadiy Svirshchuk and Maksym, on May 6th as part of a prisoner exchange. This highlights the ongoing process of prisoner exchanges and provides specific details on the return of personnel from a known Ukrainian military unit.
Russian Claims of Destroying Ukrainian Assets and Disrupting Rotations:Воин DV reports that units of the 29th Combined Arms Army destroyed a temporary deployment point, a dugout, 2 BBMs, a Dart UAV, and a Leleka UAV in the areas of Alekseevka and Bogatyr. They also claim to have eliminated 2 Baba Yaga hexacopters and Starlink equipment.Воин DV also reports that artillery and FPV drone operators of the 35th Combined Arms Army destroyed a UAV command post, 2 pickups, and 4 Baba Yaga UAVs, and disrupted 2 attempts to reinforce positions and evacuate near Gulyaipole. These are Russian claims of successful strikes against Ukrainian forces and equipment on the front lines, indicating continued localized engagements and efforts to degrade Ukrainian capabilities.
Drone Strike on Energy Worker's Vehicle in Sumy Oblast:Оперативний ЗСУ reports that a Russian drone strike on an energy worker's vehicle in Sumy Oblast resulted in one fatality. This highlights the continued targeting of civilian infrastructure and personnel by Russian forces, even those engaged in essential services, with tragic consequences.
Russia Responds to Poland's Consulate Closure:ТАСС reports that Maria Zakharova, Russian MFA Spokesperson, stated that Russia will respond to Poland's decision to close the consulate in Krakow. This confirms the diplomatic fallout and the likelihood of reciprocal measures from Russia.
US-China Agree to 90-Day Trade Truce:Оперативний ЗСУ and Alex Parker Returns report that the US and China have agreed to a 90-day trade truce, with both sides lowering tariffs. This is a significant international economic development with potential global implications, although its direct and immediate impact on the conflict in Ukraine is not explicitly stated.
Russian Detention of Teenager Allegedly Planning Terrorist Attack on Military Commissariat:Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the detention of a teenager in Novokuznetsk (Kemerovo Oblast) who allegedly planned a terrorist attack on a military commissariat in collusion with a "terrorist organization connected with Ukraine." This is a report of an internal security incident in Russia, framed as an act of terrorism linked to Ukraine, which could be used for propaganda purposes and to justify stricter security measures.
Russian Drone and KAB Attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast Frontline Communities:🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports Russian drone attacks overnight and KAB strikes in the morning on Zaporizhzhia district, affecting the Bilenke village and damaging a parked vehicle. While no casualties are reported in this specific instance, it confirms continued Russian aerial attacks on civilian areas near the front lines.
Bloomberg Reports Potential EU/US "Strong Response" If Russia Doesn't Cease Fire Today:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on a Bloomberg article suggesting a potential "strong response," including sanctions, from the EU and US if Russia does not agree to a ceasefire today. This indicates potential international pressure on Russia to de-escalate, although the effectiveness of this pressure remains uncertain.
Relaxation of Curfew in Zaporizhzhia Oblast:Mash на Донбассе reports a shortening of the curfew in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and exemptions for main highways. This suggests a perceived improvement in the security situation in certain areas, allowing for some normalization of civilian life and movement.
Russian Artillery and Drone Activity in South Donetsk:Народная милиция ДНР reports artillery and UAV operators of the 238th Artillery Brigade and 346th Separate Spetsnaz Brigade destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position. This highlights continued Russian artillery and drone coordination in the South Donetsk direction.
Russian Claims of Using Anti-Drone Systems:Kotsnews shares a video claiming soldiers of the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the "Sever" group are using a "net launcher" to intercept Ukrainian kamikaze drones. This indicates Russian efforts to develop and employ countermeasures against Ukrainian drone threats.
Russian Military Production and Deliveries:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that the United Aircraft Corporation has delivered another batch of new Su-35S multi-functional fighters to the Russian Ministry of Defense. This indicates continued Russian military production and modernization efforts, reinforcing their air capabilities.
Russian Diplomatic Commentary on Poland's Actions:ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova's statement that Russia will respond to Poland's closure of the consulate in Krakow. This reiterates the diplomatic tension and confirms a retaliatory response is expected.
ASTRA Reports on Russian Disinformation Regarding European Leaders:ASTRA reports on Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova's claim that European leaders used drugs on a train during a visit to Kyiv, debunking the claim as disinformation and noting the materials in question were a napkin and a toothpick. This highlights the extent of Russian information operations and the use of blatant disinformation to discredit Western leaders and narratives.
Ukrainian Brigade Fundraising:РБК-Україна reports on the "Rubizh" brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine fundraising for equipment and vehicle repairs after losses. This indicates the ongoing need for support for Ukrainian units on the front lines due to combat attrition.
Report on Rehabilitation of Wounded Ukrainian Soldiers in Dnipro:РБК-Україна highlights efforts in Dnipro to help wounded soldiers return to life and service after injuries, including through prosthetics and rehabilitation. This report underscores the significant human cost of the war and Ukraine's efforts to support its injured military personnel.
Ukrainian General Staff Meeting with Norwegian Chief of Defence:Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports a meeting between Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Norwegian Chief of Defence to discuss the operational situation, further strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities, foreign investment in Ukraine's defense industry, and Norwegian support including participation in various coalitions and aid projects. This highlights ongoing international military cooperation and support for Ukraine at a high level.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Siversk, Kostyantynopil, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, Novopil, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Novohrodivka, Horlivka, Bakhmut districts, Bogatyr, Alekseevka): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Ukrainian General Staff reports numerous assaults repelled across these directions.Сили оборони Півдня України reports 13 attacks repelled on the Novopavlivka direction, six on the Orikhiv direction, and one unsuccessful attempt on the Dnipro direction.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video about rescuing a dog in the "liberated" Novohrodivka, indicating Russian presence and control claims.ASTRA reports a Russian drone attacked a civilian cargo train in Donetsk Oblast, injuring the driver.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 5 injured and damage from shelling in Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Bakhmut districts.WarGonzo reports a man was killed and a teenager injured in Horlivka, with damage to houses and a car.Russian sources report continued combat in the South Donetsk direction.Воин DV reports Russian units destroyed a temporary deployment point, a dugout, 2 BBMs, a Dart UAV, and a Leleka UAV in the areas of Alekseevka and Bogatyr.Народная милиция ДНР reports Russian artillery and UAV operators destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position in the South Donetsk direction.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Russian tank was destroyed by a Ukrainian "Spartan" brigade using "Stugna-P" and drones near Novoseriivka, west of Pokrovsk, confirming continued Russian attempts to advance and Ukrainian defensive actions in this area.Kotsnews shares a video claiming "Vega" special forces are destroying Ukrainian assets on the Pokrovsk direction.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Rylsk, Tetkino, Khomutovka, Valuyki, Богун-Городок, Борки, Красный Октябрь — Бессоновка, Двулучное, Архангельское, Соболевка, Уразово, Чайки, Аркатово — Посохово):Ukrainian General Staff reports combat engagements, aviation strikes, and artillery shellings.ASTRA and Север.Реалии report a missile strike on Rylsk, injuring three people and damaging a hotel and vehicles.Colonelcassad and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claim a Ukrainian HIMARS system was destroyed near Nahornivka, Sumy Oblast, after allegedly striking Rylsk.Рыбарь reports continued fighting near Tetkino and Ukrainian attempts to break through, including with Leopard tanks.Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka and civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in various settlements of Belgorod Oblast.ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki.ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb fell in Belgorod Oblast.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and ТАСС report the destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS MLRS in Sumy Oblast after it allegedly fired on Rylsk.
Sumy Oblast (Nahornivka, Konotop, Черневе, Sumy community):Colonelcassad and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claim a Ukrainian HIMARS system was destroyed near Nahornivka after allegedly striking Rylsk.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated KAB launches on Sumy Oblast.Russian aviation strikes were carried out in the Cherneve area.Оперативний ЗСУ reports a Russian drone strike on an energy worker's vehicle in Sumy Oblast resulted in one fatality.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and ТАСС report the destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS MLRS here.
Odesa Oblast (Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi):Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack.Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi injured one person and damaged civilian infrastructure.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms significant destruction and one injured person.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports observing increased movement of military cargo in the Odesa port area.Colonelcassad shares video claiming to show night strikes of "Geraniums" on targets in the Belgorod-Dnestrovsky area.
Mykolaiv Oblast:Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack.Сили оборони Півдня України reports front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Orikhiv direction, Gulyaipole, Bilenke village):Сили оборони Півдня України reports repelling six enemy assaults on the Orikhiv direction and front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes and artillery/MLRS shelling.MoD Russia reports a Grad MLRS crew eliminated a Ukrainian manpower and hardware cluster.Два майора is fundraising for tank crews on the Zaporizhzhia direction.MoD Russia and Воин DV report Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian assets and disrupted rotations near Gulyaipole.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports Russian drone attacks overnight and KAB strikes in the morning on Zaporizhzhia district, affecting Bilenke village and damaging a parked vehicle.Mash на Донбассе reports a relaxation of the curfew in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Zhytomyr Oblast:Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack.
Chernihiv Oblast:Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack (reported previously).Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger (later lifted).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:Сили оборони Півдня України reports front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes and artillery/MLRS shelling.Рыбарь reports Russian forces approaching the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast south of Pokrovsk.
Kherson Oblast:Сили оборони Півдня України reports one unsuccessful enemy attempt to advance on the Dnipro direction and front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes and artillery/MLRS shelling.Рыбарь reports three civilian fatalities from Ukrainian strikes and continued mutual artillery/drone strikes across the Dnieper.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (Korocha district, Valuyki, Bohun-Horodok, Borki, Krasnyi Oktiabr - Bessonovka road, Dvuluchne, Arkhangelske, Sobolivka, Urazove, Chaiki, Arkatovo - Posokhovo road, Ivitsa, "Belgorod People's Republic"):Два майора reports civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in various settlements.ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki.ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb fell in Korocha district.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports Ukrainian SSOs conducted a raid here and captured Russian soldiers.
Rivne Oblast (Near Rivne):Офіс Генерального прокурора and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report the detention of two Russian agents for an attempted terrorist attack.Оперативний ЗСУ provides further details on the attempted terrorist attack, stating they planned to blow up a police investigation team.
Poltava Oblast:Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger (later lifted).
Buryatia (Russia) (Barguzin):БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights a memorial for those killed in the "SVO".
Perm (Russia):Военкор Котенок reports a disturbing alleged violent crime.
Kemerovo Oblast (Russia) (Novokuznetsk):Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the detention of a teenager allegedly planning a terrorist attack on a military commissariat in collusion with a "terrorist organization connected with Ukraine."
Algeria:ASTRA reports that General Surovikin was seen here.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity:Ukrainian Air Force reports a large-scale Russian attack involving 108 Shahed-type and decoy drones overnight, with 55 shot down and 30 decoy drones lost. The attack affected Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Сили оборони Півдня України reports around 650 kamikaze drone strikes and over 400 drops from UAVs using around 500 munitions in the South.Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi injured one person and damaged civilian infrastructure.Север.Реалии reports a freight train was attacked by a Russian drone in Donetsk Oblast, injuring the train driver.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms destruction and injury in Odesa Oblast due to the attack.Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast, and civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone attacks in Belgorod Oblast.ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing Ukrainian GUR, reports on a new Russian cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from Orion UAVs.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports "Rubikon" special center strike drones are hitting various Ukrainian UAVs.АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video of an attack on enemy positions on the Sumy direction, involving drones.Два майора is fundraising for drone detectors for tank crews.Военкор Котенок is fundraising for motorcycles and drone detectors.Оперативний ЗСУ reports a Russian drone strike on an energy worker's vehicle in Sumy Oblast resulted in one fatality.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports Russian drone attacks overnight and KAB strikes in the morning on Zaporizhzhia district, affecting Bilenke village and damaging a parked vehicle.Народная милиция ДНР reports Russian artillery and UAV operators destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position.Kotsnews shares a video claiming soldiers are using a "net launcher" to intercept Ukrainian kamikaze drones.Воин DV reports Russian units destroyed a Dart UAV, a Leleka UAV, and 6 Baba Yaga hexacopters, and disrupted attempts to reinforce positions and evacuate using FPV drones.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports a Russian tank was destroyed by a Ukrainian "Spartan" brigade using "Stugna-P" and drones.БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of a Russian "Niva" vehicle attacking a Ukrainian FPV drone.
Aviation Activity:Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated KAB launches on Sumy Oblast.Сили оборони Півдня України reports 10 aviation strikes by Russian forces in the South, using 15 guided aerial bombs and 101 unguided aerial rockets.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction, with a threat of aerial guided munition use for frontline regions.ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 aviation bomb fell in Belgorod Oblast.ТАСС reports the delivery of new Su-35S fighter jets to the Russian Ministry of Defense.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports KAB strikes in the morning on Zaporizhzhia district.
Missile Activity:ASTRA and Север.Реалии report a missile strike on Rylsk in Kursk Oblast, injuring three people.Сили оборони Півдня України reports around 350 enemy shellings using over 1400 munitions in the South, including MLRS.MoD Russia reports a Grad MLRS crew eliminated a Ukrainian manpower and hardware cluster in Zaporizhzhia.Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger in Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts (later lifted).Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and ТАСС report the destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS MLRS in Sumy Oblast after it allegedly fired on Rylsk.
Naval Activity:Ukrainian General Staff reports the absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports observing increased movement of military cargo in the Odesa port area, including two military ships.Сили оборони Півдня України reports Ukrainian forces destroyed 4 enemy boats in the past day.
Air Defense Activity:Ukrainian Air Force reports 55 Russian UAVs were shot down overnight.Сили оборони Півдня України reports Ukrainian forces destroyed 3 enemy air defense systems in the past day.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports "Rubikon" special center strike drones are hitting various Ukrainian UAVs.Kotsnews shares a video claiming soldiers are using a "net launcher" to intercept Ukrainian kamikaze drones.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Ceasefire and Negotiations:Discussions regarding potential peace talks in Istanbul persist.Ukrainian officials maintain their stance of not agreeing to talks without a prior ceasefire.Russian sources express skepticism about Ukraine's willingness to negotiate on Russian terms.The Guardian reports that Zelenskyy's offer to meet Putin in Istanbul is seen as a move to seize the initiative.РБК-Україна reports that Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, stated that Ukraine will not agree to talks without a prior ceasefire and questions who else in Russia is capable of making and enforcing decisions of that level besides Putin.ISW analyzes Putin's statement on resuming direct talks based on Istanbul protocols, interpreting it as demanding Ukraine's full capitulation and aiming to delay negotiations while continuing offensives.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 and ТАСС report that Brazilian President Lula da Silva proposed himself to Putin as a mediator for negotiations on Ukraine.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a claim by Ukrainian Deputy Goncharenko that Ukraine has held direct, high-level, and secret negotiations with Russia on the Arabian Peninsula multiple times since 2022, including in 2024.Bloomberg reports a potential EU/US "strong response," including sanctions, if Russia does not cease fire today.
International Support for Ukraine:A meeting of EU foreign ministers is scheduled in the UK today to discuss support for Ukraine and European security.The UK Foreign Minister plans to announce further sanctions against individuals supporting the Russian invasion.ТАСС reports that the European Commission has signed the first contracts for €1 billion in investments in Ukraine's defense industrial base.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports a meeting between Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Norwegian Chief of Defence to discuss continued military support and cooperation.
Russia-Poland Relations:Poland has decided to close the Russian Consulate General in Krakow, citing alleged Russian special services involvement in a sabotage act. This is a significant diplomatic escalation. ТАСС reports Maria Zakharova stated Russia will respond to Poland's actions.Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна confirm Poland's decision and Russia's reaction.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Discussion around potential direct negotiations in Istanbul continues, with differing conditions from each side. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports a claim by Ukrainian Deputy Goncharenko that Ukraine has held direct, high-level, and secret negotiations with Russia on the Arabian Peninsula multiple times since 2022, including in 2024.
Russian Internal Politics:ТАСС reports the inclusion of former Bashneft president and ex-senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev in the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted database.Военкор Котенок reports a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm.Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Новости is promoting narratives related to Victory Day and alleged "neo-fascism."Два майора is engaged in fundraising.Военкор Котенок is engaged in fundraising.Басурин о главном reports on the PKK self-dissolution.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the detention of a teenager in Novokuznetsk allegedly planning a terrorist attack on a military commissariat.ASTRA reports that "disgraced" General Surovikin was seen in Algeria.ASTRA reports on Russian disinformation regarding European leaders.
Ukraine's International Relations: Ukraine is engaging with EU foreign ministers in the UK to discuss support. Ukraine is responding to Hungary's expulsion of diplomats and addressing the issue of rare earth metal reserves and potential US interest (reported previously). Discussion around potential direct negotiations with Russia in Istanbul continues. The Guardian reports on Zelenskyy's move to seize the initiative regarding Istanbul talks.Ukraine is engaged in counterintelligence efforts, leading to the detention of Russian agents.ТАСС reports that the European Commission has signed the first contracts for €1 billion in investments in Ukraine's defense industrial base.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports a meeting between Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Norwegian Chief of Defence to discuss continued military support and cooperation.
PKK Self-Dissolution:Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, and Alex Parker Returns report that the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has decided to self-dissolve. This has implications for Turkey and regional security.
US-China Relations:A 90-day trade truce has been agreed upon, with both sides lowering tariffs. This is a significant international economic development. Оперативний ЗСУ and Alex Parker Returns confirm the US-China trade truce.
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security:Reports of drone activity within Russia continue (Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov Oblasts).ТАСС reports the inclusion of former Bashneft president and ex-senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev in the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted database.Военкор Котенок reports a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm involving migrants.Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Новости is promoting narratives related to internal and external threats.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the detention of a teenager in Novokuznetsk allegedly planning a terrorist attack on a military commissariat.ASTRA reports on Russian disinformation regarding European leaders.
Legal Developments:ТАСС reports the inclusion of former Bashneft president and ex-senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev in the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted database.
Information Operations:Russian sources continue to promote narratives related to Victory Day, the conflict in Ukraine, and internal/external threats.Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Новости is celebrating LPR day and promoting narratives on "neo-fascism."Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is sharing content related to Russian forces and potentially propaganda about Ukrainian areas.Два майора and Военкор Котенок are sharing videos and commentary, including fundraising appeals.Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is sharing videos of military actions and commenting on international events.Басурин о главном is commenting on regional developments.ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast, potentially highlighting issues that Russian authorities may seek to downplay or misrepresent.ASTRA reports on Russian disinformation regarding European leaders, exemplified by Maria Zakharova's claim about European leaders using drugs.
Military Production:ТАСС reports the delivery of new Su-35S fighter jets to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Civilian Casualties (Russian territory):ASTRA and Север.Реалии report three injured civilians in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast.Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast, and civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in various settlements of Belgorod Oblast.ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast.
Military Personnel Status:ASTRA reports that "disgraced" General Surovikin was seen in Algeria, with a Russian State Duma member claiming he is working as a military advisor in Africa.
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Civilian Impact:Reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure continue in Donetsk, Odesa, and Kherson Oblasts in Ukraine, and Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts in Russia.Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi injured one person and damaged civilian infrastructure.Север.Реалии reports a freight train was attacked by a Russian drone in Donetsk Oblast, injuring the train driver.ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 5 injured and damage from shelling in Donetsk Oblast.WarGonzo reports a man killed and a teenager injured in Horlivka.Два майора reports civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in Belgorod Oblast.Рыбарь reports three civilian fatalities in Kherson Oblast from Ukrainian strikes.ASTRA and Север.Реалии report three injured civilians in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast.Оперативний ЗСУ reports a Russian drone strike on an energy worker's vehicle in Sumy Oblast resulted in one fatality.🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 reports Russian drone attacks overnight and KAB strikes in the morning on Zaporizhzhia district, affecting Bilenke village and damaging a parked vehicle.
Ukrainian Military Training:ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 highlights ongoing infantry training at the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade in Kharkiv Oblast.
Fundraising Efforts:Два майора and Военкор Котенок are conducting fundraising for equipment for Russian military units.РБК-Україна reports on the Ukrainian "Rubizh" brigade fundraising for equipment and vehicle repairs.Colonelcassad is conducting a fundraiser for Russian units in the Artemivsk-Chasiv Yar-Klishchiivka-Siversk directions.
Support for Military Personnel and Families:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video about rescuing a dog from Novohrodivka, highlighting a humanitarian action by Russian soldiers.‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» reports on the return of prisoners of war and efforts to support them and their families.РБК-Україна highlights efforts in Dnipro to help wounded soldiers return to life and service after injuries.Генеральний штаб ЗСУ reports a meeting with the Norwegian Chief of Defence discussing support for wounded and rehabilitated Ukrainian soldiers.
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russian Forces: Continuing intense ground assaults across multiple directions, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. Conducting large-scale drone attacks (over 100 UAVs), extensive artillery and MLRS shelling, and aviation strikes with guided bombs. Utilizing FPV drones. Claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment (HIMARS, boats, air defense systems, vehicles). Employing tactical aviation. Delivering new Su-35S fighter jets. Potentially using a new cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from drones. Reporting continued combat in the South Donetsk direction and successful strikes by Grad MLRS in Zaporizhzhia. Observing increased military cargo movement in Odesa. Facing Ukrainian counterattacks and resistance. Claiming destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS system in Sumy Oblast. Destroying Ukrainian assets and disrupting rotations in the Bogatyr, Alekseevka, and Gulyaipole areas. Targeting energy workers with drones in Sumy Oblast. Using a "net launcher" to intercept Ukrainian drones. (Ukrainian General Staff, Сили оборони Півдня України, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Рыбарь, Два майора, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, MoD Russia, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, WarGonzo, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Народная милиция ДНР, Kotsnews, Воин DV, Colonelcassad)
Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against Russian assaults across numerous sectors, reporting successful repels and significant Russian losses (personnel, equipment, air defense systems, boats). Conducting counterintelligence operations and detaining suspected Russian agents. Utilizing air defense to counter Russian aerial attacks. Conducting drone attacks in Russian border regions. Engaging in training exercises for ground forces. Returning prisoners of war. Conducting SSOs raids on Russian territory, resulting in prisoner captures. Fundraising for equipment and repairs. Rehabilitating wounded soldiers. Discussing continued military support and cooperation with international partners. Destroying a Russian tank using anti-tank systems and drones. Using FPV drones. (Ukrainian General Staff, Сили оборони Півдня України, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Офіс Генерального прокурора, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
PKK: Reportedly deciding to self-dissolve and transition to political methods. (Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns)
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The continued intensity of ground combat across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, despite the declared end of the Russian ceasefire, indicates that both sides remain committed to achieving military objectives through force. The high number of reported engagements underscores the attritional nature of the current phase of the conflict.
The large-scale Russian drone attack and continued heavy shelling and aviation strikes highlight Russia's reliance on these methods to degrade Ukrainian defenses, target infrastructure, and inflict casualties. Ukraine's ability to intercept a significant number of drones, coupled with the reported destruction of Russian air defense systems by Ukrainian forces, indicates an ongoing air and electronic warfare battle. The reported use of a new cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from drones, allegedly with foreign components, suggests Russia is adapting its tactics and may be seeking to circumvent sanctions or utilize readily available technology, posing an evolving threat that requires updated countermeasures.Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian HIMARS in Sumy Oblast, if confirmed, represent a strategic success in countering Ukrainian long-range precision strike capabilities.
The diplomatic exchanges and public statements from leaders like Donald Trump and Russian officials underscore the continued international dimension of the conflict and the ongoing efforts to find a path towards negotiation. The divergent positions on the conditions for a ceasefire highlight the deep-seated disagreements that remain. Andriy Yermak's comments on the necessity of a prior ceasefire for negotiations and his focus on Putin as the key decision-maker provide insight into Ukraine's diplomatic strategy and its assessment of the Russian leadership's willingness to engage in substantive talks.ISW's analysis suggests Russia is using the idea of negotiations to buy time and continue its offensive, reinforcing the need for caution in diplomatic engagements.Brazilian President Lula da Silva's offer to mediate indicates ongoing international interest in a peaceful resolution, though the effectiveness of this offer is uncertain.The claim by a Ukrainian deputy of secret high-level talks since 2022 suggests that informal communication channels may exist despite public posturing, which could be strategically relevant for future de-escalation efforts.The Bloomberg report on potential EU/US sanctions if Russia doesn't cease fire today indicates potential international pressure, although its impact remains to be seen.
Poland's decision to close the Russian consulate in Krakow, citing alleged Russian sabotage, is a significant escalation in diplomatic tensions and suggests a potential expansion of Russian hostile activities beyond Ukraine's borders. This development requires heightened vigilance and coordination among NATO allies to deter and respond to such actions. Russia's stated intention to respond to Poland's actions confirms the diplomatic fallout and the likelihood of reciprocal measures.
Reports of increased Russian military cargo movement in the Odesa port area warrant close monitoring and intelligence analysis to determine the nature and intent of these movements. This could indicate preparations for offensive actions in the south or simply logistical resupply, but it represents a potential area of increased risk.
The detention of Russian agents in Rivne Oblast for an attempted terrorist attack underscores the ongoing internal security threats faced by Ukraine and the importance of effective counterintelligence efforts to prevent destabilization and gather intelligence on Russian networks within the country. The details provided by Ukraine's National Police highlight the specific target (police investigation team) and the methods used, indicating a direct attempt to undermine Ukrainian law enforcement and create chaos.
The continued reporting of civilian casualties and damage on both sides of the front line highlights the devastating humanitarian impact of the conflict and the ongoing violation of international humanitarian law. Prioritizing minimizing civilian harm and collateral damage remains a critical ethical and strategic imperative. The report of a drone strike on an energy worker's vehicle in Sumy Oblast is a stark example of the targeting of civilian essential services and personnel.
The ongoing fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for equipment like drones and thermal imagers suggest that while the Russian state provides significant resources, there may still be gaps in supply at the unit level, and public support plays a role in bridging these gaps. The fundraising efforts by both Russian and Ukrainian units underscore the attritional nature of the conflict and the constant need for resources.
The reported self-dissolution of the PKK could have regional implications, particularly for Turkey, and might indirectly influence the broader geopolitical landscape surrounding the conflict.
The delivery of new Su-35S fighter jets to Russia indicates their continued efforts to maintain and modernize their air force, which remains a significant factor in the conflict.
The report of a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast, coupled with previous similar incidents, suggests potential technical challenges or errors in the use of guided munitions by Russian forces. This could have implications for the effectiveness of their air strikes and potentially pose risks to their own territory.
The US-China trade truce is a significant international economic development that could have broader geopolitical implications, although its direct impact on the conflict in Ukraine is not immediately clear.
The reported rocket threat in Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts, although later lifted, indicates that areas beyond the immediate front lines remain vulnerable to Russian missile strikes, necessitating continued air defense preparedness across a wide area.
The report of the detention of a teenager in Novokuznetsk allegedly planning a terrorist attack on a military commissariat, linked by Russian sources to Ukraine, is a strategic narrative promoted by Russia to portray Ukraine as supporting terrorism and to justify internal security measures.
The continued Russian drone and KAB attacks on frontline communities in Zaporizhzhia Oblast highlight the ongoing threat to civilians and infrastructure in these areas and underscore the need for continued defensive measures.
The relaxation of the curfew in Zaporizhzhia Oblast suggests a localized assessment of improved security, which could be strategically relevant for assessing the effectiveness of defensive operations in those specific areas.
Russian claims of using anti-drone systems like the "net launcher" indicate their strategic efforts to counter Ukraine's effective use of UAVs, an important aspect of the ongoing technological and tactical adaptation in the conflict.
The European Commission's investment in Ukraine's defense industry is a long-term strategic commitment to bolstering Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts and potentially reduce reliance on external aid over time.
The return of Ukrainian prisoners of war is a critical humanitarian and strategic process, with implications for morale, intelligence gathering, and potential future exchanges.
The report on the rehabilitation of wounded Ukrainian soldiers in Dnipro highlights the strategic importance of medical support and reintegration efforts to maintain the strength and morale of the armed forces.
The meeting between the Ukrainian and Norwegian Chiefs of Defence underscores the continued high-level international military cooperation and the importance of sustained support and coordination for Ukraine's defense.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
