Sitrep 2025-05-12 07:56:40

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 12, 2025, 07:56 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment remains defined by intense ground combat, concentrated in Donetsk Oblast, particularly the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Lyman, and Siversk directions. Russian forces are maintaining persistent aerial activity, employing both drones and guided aerial bombs (KABs). Ukrainian forces are actively countering these efforts and reporting successes in repelling assaults and destroying Russian military assets. Russian information operations continue to utilize various narratives, including Victory Day themes and portraying internal Ukrainian issues. Diplomatic activity regarding a potential ceasefire and negotiations continues, with conflicting public statements from Ukrainian and US leaders and skepticism from Russian sources. Recent reports highlight continued civilian casualties and damage from shelling and drone attacks in various regions. Internal Russian issues, including security concerns and proposed legislation targeting dissent, are also reported. Poland's ongoing military modernization is being interpreted by Russian sources as preparation for future conflict. Significant new information includes updated reports from the Ukrainian General Staff on repelled enemy assaults across multiple directions, providing a detailed picture of the contested front lines and the intensity of fighting in key areas. The absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas is a notable development from the Ukrainian Navy. Further reports detail Russian drone and missile activity, including a claimed destruction of a Ukrainian HIMARS system by Russian forces near the border. Both sides are engaging in fundraising efforts to support their military operations. Russian sources continue to promote narratives related to Victory Day and historical context, alongside reports of internal security and legal developments. Training activities for Ukrainian forces, particularly in tactical medicine, are highlighted. Discussions regarding potential peace talks in Istanbul persist, with divergent positions on a ceasefire from Ukraine and Russia. Civilian casualties are reported in various Ukrainian and Russian border regions. Information operations surrounding alleged incidents during European leaders' visit to Kyiv are ongoing. Russian military bloggers are sharing visual content from the front lines, including claimed destruction of Ukrainian equipment and alleged demoralization among Ukrainian soldiers. A Russian military blogger claims Russian forces are approaching the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast south of Pokrovsk. New information indicates Poland's closure of the Russian consulate in Krakow, citing alleged Russian sabotage. Reports of increased Russian military cargo movement in the Odesa port area suggest potential logistical preparations. Ukraine's GUR reports details on a new Russian cruise missile ("Banderol") being launched from drones, allegedly using foreign components. Ukrainian military intelligence is actively combating internal sabotage efforts, leading to arrests in Rivne Oblast. Russian sources are reporting continued combat in the South Donetsk direction and the destruction of Ukrainian equipment by MLRS fire in Zaporizhzhia. Russian military bloggers continue to fundraise for equipment. Internal Russian reports include an arrest of an ex-senator on fraud charges and a disturbing report of an alleged violent crime in Perm involving migrants. Russian media continues to portray events through a specific narrative, exemplified by commentary on the Macron video and celebrating LPR day. Ukrainian forces in the South are reporting significant Russian losses and repelled assaults on various fronts. Training exercises for Ukrainian infantry are ongoing in Kharkiv Oblast. More details on the large-scale Russian drone attack confirm impacts in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Reports from Donetsk Oblast confirm civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure from Russian shelling. The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has reportedly decided to self-dissolve. New Su-35S fighters have been delivered to the Russian Ministry of Defense. A report of a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast highlights potential issues with guided munition reliability. A US-China trade truce is reported.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages:

Poland Closes Russian Consulate in Krakow, Citing Alleged Sabotage: TASS and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны report that Poland has decided to close the Russian Consulate General in Krakow. Poland's Foreign Minister cited evidence of Russian special services committing a criminal act of sabotage against a shopping center near Marywilska. This is a significant diplomatic escalation and a direct accusation of Russian hostile activity on Polish territory.
Reports of Increased Russian Military Cargo in Odesa Port: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports observing increased movement of military cargo in the Odesa port area. This includes trucks with gray containers, a similar vehicle near suspected weapon depots on the city outskirts, two military ships at the quays, and movement of dark green military vehicles and light military motorboats. This suggests potential Russian preparations or logistical activities related to the Odesa region, requiring increased vigilance and assessment of intent.
Ukraine's GUR Reports on New Russian "Banderol" Cruise Missile Launched from Drones: Оперативний ЗСУ, citing Ukrainian GUR and War&Sanctions, provides details on a new Russian cruise missile, the S8000 "Banderol," launched from Orion UAVs and potentially Ми-28Н attack helicopters. The report highlights its ability for tighter turns and lists over 20 foreign components used in its production (including from China, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland), along with over 30 associated enterprises. This is significant intelligence on Russian weapon development, highlighting reliance on foreign components and indicating an evolving threat.
Ukrainian SBU Detains Russian Agents in Rivne Oblast for Attempted Terrorist Attack: Офіс Генерального прокурора and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report that the SBU and National Police have detained two 18-year-old Russian agents in Rivne Oblast who attempted a terrorist attack. They allegedly assembled and planted explosive devices in an abandoned building and called the police with a fake report of a body to lure them, but the police were not harmed. This highlights ongoing Russian attempts at internal destabilization within Ukraine and successful counterintelligence efforts by Ukrainian authorities.
Continued Combat and Russian Claims of Losses Inflicted in Southern Directions: Сили оборони Півдня України reports that Ukrainian forces continue to inflict significant losses on the enemy in the South, destroying 66 units of military equipment, including 2 tanks, 9 artillery systems, and 3 air defense systems in the past day. They also report repelling 13 attacks on the Novopavlivka direction, six on the Orikhiv direction, and one unsuccessful attempt on the Dnipro direction. They also provide figures for Russian drone and artillery usage in the South (around 650 kamikaze drone strikes and over 350 artillery shellings). MoD Russia reports that a Grad MLRS crew of the 42nd Guards Division of the Dnepr Group of Forces eliminated a Ukrainian manpower and hardware cluster in Zaporizhzhia region. This indicates continued heavy fighting and significant mutual losses in southern Ukraine.
Russian Military Bloggers Continue Fundraising: Два майора is conducting a fundraiser for tank crews on the Zaporizhzhia direction, seeking motorcycles, drone detectors, and a thermal imager. Военкор Котенок is also fundraising for the 40th separate guards marine brigade of the Pacific Fleet, seeking similar equipment. This indicates ongoing reliance on public support for equipping Russian military units on the front lines.
Internal Russian Developments: Arrest and Alleged Violent Crime: ТАСС reports that former Bashneft president and ex-senator from Udmurtia, Viktor Khoroshavtsev, has been included in the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted database. Военкор Котенок reports a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm involving migrants. While not directly military, these highlight internal legal issues and social tensions within Russia.
Russian Media Focus on Information Operations: Два майора shares a video focusing on the controversy surrounding European leaders' visit to Kyiv, framed skeptically. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) celebrates the "Republic Day" of the LPR and DPR, and shares content on alleged "neo-fascism" in Sweden and the Baltics. This indicates a continued focus on shaping narratives and promoting specific political viewpoints.
Ukrainian Infantry Training Highlighted in Kharkiv Oblast: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 shares a video showcasing infantry training at the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade in Kharkiv Oblast, emphasizing psychological obstacle courses, tactical movement, assault techniques, overcoming obstacles, and tactical medicine. This highlights ongoing efforts to train and prepare Ukrainian ground forces.
Detailed Report on Large-Scale Russian Drone Attack: Север.Реалии confirms that Ukraine was attacked by over a hundred drones overnight (108), with 55 shot down and 30 decoy drones lost. The attack affected Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Оперативний ЗСУ specifies a drone attack on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi in Odesa Oblast injured one person and damaged civilian infrastructure, including houses, an administrative building, and a fire station. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms significant destruction and one injured person in Odesa Oblast due to the attack. This provides more specific details on the scale and impact of the recent Russian drone attack.
Continued Civilian Casualties and Damage in Donetsk Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Russian shelling continues in Donetsk Oblast, injuring 5 people and causing damage in Pokrovsk (3 admin buildings, 2 enterprises, 10 garages), Kramatorsk (3 houses, car, power line, gas pipeline), and Bakhmut (4 houses) districts. WarGonzo reports a man was killed and a teenager injured in Horlivka, with damage to houses and a car. These reports underscore the ongoing humanitarian impact of the conflict on civilian areas. Север.Реалии confirms a freight train was attacked by a Russian drone in Donetsk Oblast, injuring the train driver.
PKK Self-Dissolution Reported: Басурин о главном and Colonelcassad report that the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has decided to self-dissolve and transition to political methods. This is a notable development in regional dynamics, potentially impacting Turkey's security situation and its involvement in the broader regional context.
Delivery of New Russian Su-35S Fighters: ТАСС reports that the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) has delivered another batch of Su-35S fighter jets to the Russian Ministry of Defense. This indicates continued Russian military production and modernization efforts, reinforcing their air capabilities.
Russian FAB-500 Bomb Fell in Belgorod Oblast: ASTRA reports that a Russian FAB-500 aviation bomb "abnormally detached" from a Russian aircraft on May 4th and fell in Belgorod Oblast, over 60 km from the Ukrainian border. While no casualties or damage were reported in this specific incident, ASTRA notes this is at least the 70th aviation bomb or missile to fall in Russia or occupied territories from Russian aircraft since the beginning of 2025, highlighting potential reliability issues with guided munitions or targeting errors.
US and China Agree to 90-Day Trade Truce: STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and РБК-Україна report that the US and China have agreed to a 90-day trade truce, with both sides lowering tariffs. This is a significant development in international economic relations, potentially impacting global trade dynamics and the broader geopolitical landscape, although its direct and immediate impact on the conflict in Ukraine is not explicitly stated.
Rocket Threat in Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger in Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts, indicating potential Russian missile activity in these regions. This threat was later lifted.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Siversk, Kostyantynopil, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, Novopil, Mala Tokmachka, Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Novohrodivka, Horlivka, Bakhmut districts): Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat. Ukrainian General Staff reports numerous assaults repelled across these directions. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 13 attacks repelled on the Novopavlivka direction, six on the Orikhiv direction, and one unsuccessful attempt on the Dnipro direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video about rescuing a dog in the "liberated" Novohrodivka, indicating Russian presence and control claims. ASTRA reports a Russian drone attacked a civilian cargo train in Donetsk Oblast, injuring the driver. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 5 injured and damage from shelling in Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Bakhmut districts. WarGonzo reports a man killed and a teenager injured in Horlivka due to shelling. Russian sources report continued combat in the South Donetsk direction.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Rylsk, Tetkino, Khomutovka, Valuyki, Богун-Городок, Борки, Красный Октябрь — Бессоновка, Двулучное, Архангельское, Соболевка, Уразово, Чайки, Аркатово — Посохово): Ukrainian General Staff reports combat engagements, aviation strikes, and artillery shellings. ASTRA and Север.Реалии report a missile strike on Rylsk, injuring three people and damaging a hotel and vehicles. Colonelcassad and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claim a Ukrainian HIMARS system was destroyed near Nahornivka, Sumy Oblast, after allegedly striking Rylsk. Рыбарь reports continued fighting near Tetkino and Ukrainian attempts to break through, including with Leopard tanks. Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka and civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in various settlements of Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb fell in Belgorod Oblast.
Sumy Oblast (Nahornivka, Konotop, Черневе): Colonelcassad and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claim a Ukrainian HIMARS system was destroyed near Nahornivka after allegedly striking Rylsk. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Russian aviation strikes were carried out in the Cherneve area.
Odesa Oblast (Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi): Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi injured one person and damaged civilian infrastructure. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms significant destruction and one injured person. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports observing increased movement of military cargo in the Odesa port area.
Mykolaiv Oblast: Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack. Сили оборони Півдня України reports front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Сили оборони Півдня України reports repelling six enemy assaults on the Orikhiv direction and front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes and artillery/MLRS shelling. MoD Russia reports a Grad MLRS crew eliminated a Ukrainian manpower and hardware cluster. Два майора is fundraising for tank crews on the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Zhytomyr Oblast: Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack.
Chernihiv Oblast: Affected by a large-scale Russian drone attack (reported previously). Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger (later lifted).
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Сили оборони Півдня України reports front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes and artillery/MLRS shelling. Рыбарь reports Russian forces approaching the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast south of Pokrovsk.
Kherson Oblast: Сили оборони Півдня України reports one unsuccessful enemy attempt to advance on the Dnipro direction and front-line settlements affected by FPV drone strikes and artillery/MLRS shelling. Рыбарь reports three civilian fatalities from Ukrainian strikes and continued mutual artillery/drone strikes across the Dnieper.
Belgorod Oblast (Russia) (Korocha district, Valuyki, Bohun-Horodok, Borki, Krasnyi Oktiabr - Bessonovka road, Dvuluchne, Arkhangelske, Sobolivka, Urazove, Chaiki, Arkatovo - Posokhovo road, Ivitsa): Два майора reports civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in various settlements. ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 bomb fell in Korocha district.
Rivne Oblast (Near Rivne): Офіс Генерального прокурора and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report the detention of two Russian agents for an attempted terrorist attack.
Poltava Oblast: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger (later lifted).
Buryatia (Russia) (Barguzin): БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС highlights a memorial for those killed in the "SVO".
Perm (Russia): Военкор Котенок reports a disturbing alleged violent crime.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reports a large-scale Russian attack involving 108 Shahed-type and decoy drones overnight, with 55 shot down and 30 decoy drones lost. The attack affected Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Сили оборони Півдня України reports around 650 kamikaze drone strikes and over 400 drops from UAVs using around 500 munitions in the South. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi injured one person and damaged civilian infrastructure. Север.Реалии reports a freight train was attacked by a Russian drone in Donetsk Oblast, injuring the train driver. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS confirms destruction and injury in Odesa Oblast due to the attack. Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast, and civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone attacks in Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing Ukrainian GUR, reports on a new Russian cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from Orion UAVs. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports "Rubikon" special center strike drones are hitting various Ukrainian UAVs. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video of an attack on enemy positions on the Sumy direction, involving drones. Два майора is fundraising for drone detectors for tank crews. Военкор Котенок is fundraising for motorcycles and drone detectors.
Aviation Activity: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated KAB launches on Sumy Oblast. Сили оборони Півдня України reports 10 aviation strikes by Russian forces in the South, using 15 guided aerial bombs and 101 unguided aerial rockets. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports activity of enemy tactical aviation on the southeastern direction, with a threat of aerial guided munition use for frontline regions. ASTRA reports a Russian FAB-500 aviation bomb fell in Belgorod Oblast. ТАСС reports the delivery of new Su-35S fighter jets to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Missile Activity: ASTRA and Север.Реалии report a missile strike on Rylsk in Kursk Oblast, injuring three people. Сили оборони Півдня України reports around 350 enemy shellings using over 1400 munitions in the South, including MLRS. MoD Russia reports a Grad MLRS crew eliminated a Ukrainian manpower and hardware cluster in Zaporizhzhia. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports rocket danger in Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts (later lifted).
Naval Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports the absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports observing increased movement of military cargo in the Odesa port area, including two military ships. Сили оборони Півдня України reports Ukrainian forces destroyed 4 enemy boats in the past day.
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reports 55 Russian UAVs were shot down overnight. Сили оборони Півдня України reports Ukrainian forces destroyed 3 enemy air defense systems in the past day. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports "Rubikon" special center strike drones are hitting various Ukrainian UAVs.
Artillery Activity: Сили оборони Півдня України reports around 350 enemy shellings using over 1400 munitions in the South. WarGonzo reports a man killed and a teenager injured in Horlivka due to shelling. МоD Russia reports a Grad MLRS crew eliminated a Ukrainian manpower and hardware cluster in Zaporizhzhia.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire and Negotiations: Discussions regarding potential peace talks in Istanbul persist. Ukrainian officials maintain their stance of not agreeing to talks without a prior ceasefire. Russian sources express skepticism about Ukraine's willingness to negotiate on Russian terms. The Guardian reports that Zelenskyy's offer to meet Putin in Istanbul is seen as a move to seize the initiative. РБК-Україна reports that Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, stated that Ukraine will not agree to talks without a prior ceasefire and questions who else in Russia is capable of making and enforcing decisions of that level besides Putin. ISW analyzes Putin's statement on resuming direct talks based on Istanbul protocols, interpreting it as demanding Ukraine's full capitulation and aiming to delay negotiations while continuing offensives.
International Support for Ukraine: A meeting of EU foreign ministers is scheduled in the UK today to discuss support for Ukraine and European security. The UK Foreign Minister plans to announce further sanctions against individuals supporting the Russian invasion.
Russia-Poland Relations: Poland has decided to close the Russian Consulate General in Krakow, citing alleged Russian special services involvement in a sabotage act. This is a significant diplomatic escalation.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Activity: Discussion around potential direct negotiations in Istanbul continues, with differing conditions from each side.
Russian Internal Politics: ТАСС reports the inclusion of former Bashneft president and ex-senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev in the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted database. Военкор Котенок reports a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Новости is promoting narratives related to Victory Day and alleged "neo-fascism" in Europe. Два майора is engaged in fundraising. Военкор Котенок is engaged in fundraising. Басурин о главном reports on the PKK self-dissolution.
Ukraine's International Relations: Ukraine is engaging with EU foreign ministers in the UK to discuss support. Ukraine is responding to Hungary's expulsion of diplomats and addressing the issue of rare earth metal reserves and potential US interest (reported previously). Discussion around potential direct negotiations with Russia in Istanbul continues. The Guardian reports on Zelenskyy's move to seize the initiative regarding Istanbul talks. Ukraine is engaged in counterintelligence efforts, leading to the detention of Russian agents.
PKK Self-Dissolution: Басурин о главном and Colonelcassad report the PKK's decision to self-dissolve. This has implications for Turkey and regional security.
US-China Relations: A 90-day trade truce has been agreed upon, with both sides lowering tariffs. This is a significant international economic development.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Reports of drone activity within Russia continue (Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov Oblasts). ТАСС reports the inclusion of former Bashneft president and ex-senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev in the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted database. Военкор Котенок reports a disturbing alleged violent crime in Perm involving migrants. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Новости is promoting narratives related to internal and external threats.
Legal Developments: ТАСС reports the inclusion of former Bashneft president and ex-senator Viktor Khoroshavtsev in the Russian Interior Ministry's wanted database.
Information Operations: Russian sources continue to promote narratives related to Victory Day, the conflict in Ukraine, and internal/external threats. Janus Putkonen - Uutisia and Новости is celebrating LPR day and promoting narratives on "neo-fascism." Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is sharing content related to Russian forces and potentially propaganda about Ukrainian areas. Два майора and Военкор Котенок are sharing videos and commentary, including fundraising appeals. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны is sharing videos of military actions and commenting on international events. Басурин о главном is commenting on regional developments. ASTRA reports on a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast, potentially highlighting issues that Russian authorities may seek to downplay or misrepresent.
Military Production: ТАСС reports the delivery of new Su-35S fighter jets to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Civilian Casualties (Russian territory): ASTRA and Север.Реалии report three injured civilians in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast. Два майора reports a child injured by a Ukrainian drone in Khomutovka, Kursk Oblast, and civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in Belgorod Oblast. ASTRA reports one person injured by a Ukrainian drone in Valuyki, Belgorod Oblast.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Civilian Impact: Reports of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure continue in Donetsk, Odesa, and Kherson Oblasts in Ukraine, and Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts in Russia. Оперативний ЗСУ reports a drone attack on Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi injured one person and damaged civilian infrastructure. Север.Реалии reports a freight train was attacked by a Russian drone in Donetsk Oblast, injuring the train driver. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports 5 injured and damage from shelling in Donetsk Oblast. WarGonzo reports a man killed and a teenager injured in Horlivka. Два майора reports civilian injuries from Ukrainian drone and shelling attacks in Belgorod Oblast. Рыбарь reports three civilian fatalities in Kherson Oblast from Ukrainian strikes. ASTRA and Север.Реалии report three injured civilians in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian Military Training: ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 highlights ongoing infantry training at the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade in Kharkiv Oblast.
Fundraising Efforts: Два майора and Военкор Котенок are conducting fundraising for equipment for Russian military units.
Support for Military Personnel and Families: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video about rescuing a dog from Novohrodivka, highlighting a humanitarian action by Russian soldiers.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russian Forces: Continuing intense ground assaults across multiple directions, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. Conducting large-scale drone attacks (over 100 UAVs), extensive artillery and MLRS shelling, and aviation strikes with guided bombs. Utilizing FPV drones. Claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment (HIMARS, boats, air defense systems, vehicles). Employing tactical aviation. Delivering new Su-35S fighter jets. Potentially using a new cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from drones. Reporting continued combat in the South Donetsk direction and successful strikes by Grad MLRS in Zaporizhzhia. Observing increased military cargo movement in Odesa. Facing Ukrainian counterattacks and resistance. (Ukrainian General Staff, Сили оборони Півдня України, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Рыбарь, Два майора, Военкор Котенок, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, MoD Russia, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, ASTRA, Север.Реалии, WarGonzo)
Ukrainian Forces: Actively defending against Russian assaults across numerous sectors, reporting successful repels and significant Russian losses (personnel, equipment, air defense systems, boats). Conducting counterintelligence operations and detaining suspected Russian agents. Utilizing air defense to counter Russian aerial attacks. Conducting drone attacks in Russian border regions. Engaging in training exercises for ground forces. (Ukrainian General Staff, Сили оборони Півдня України, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Офіс Генерального прокурора, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, ASTRA, Север.Реалии)
PKK: Reportedly deciding to self-dissolve and transition to political methods. (Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued intensity of ground combat across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, despite the declared end of the Russian ceasefire, indicates that both sides remain committed to achieving military objectives through force. The high number of reported engagements underscores the attritional nature of the current phase of the conflict.
The large-scale Russian drone attack and continued heavy shelling and aviation strikes highlight Russia's reliance on these methods to degrade Ukrainian defenses, target infrastructure, and inflict casualties. Ukraine's ability to intercept a significant number of drones, coupled with the reported destruction of Russian air defense systems by Ukrainian forces, indicates an ongoing air and electronic warfare battle. The reported use of a new cruise missile ("Banderol") launched from drones, allegedly with foreign components, suggests Russia is adapting its tactics and may be seeking to circumvent sanctions or utilize readily available technology, posing an evolving threat that requires updated countermeasures.
The diplomatic exchanges and public statements from leaders like Donald Trump and Russian officials underscore the continued international dimension of the conflict and the ongoing efforts to find a path towards negotiation. The divergent positions on the conditions for a ceasefire highlight the deep-seated disagreements that remain. Andriy Yermak's comments on the necessity of a prior ceasefire for negotiations and his focus on Putin as the key decision-maker provide insight into Ukraine's diplomatic strategy and its assessment of the Russian leadership's willingness to engage in substantive talks. ISW's analysis suggests Russia is using the idea of negotiations to buy time and continue its offensive, reinforcing the need for caution in diplomatic engagements.
Poland's decision to close the Russian consulate in Krakow, citing alleged Russian sabotage, is a significant escalation in diplomatic tensions and suggests a potential expansion of Russian hostile activities beyond Ukraine's borders. This development requires heightened vigilance and coordination among NATO allies to deter and respond to such actions.
Reports of increased Russian military cargo movement in the Odesa port area warrant close monitoring and intelligence analysis to determine the nature and intent of these movements. This could indicate preparations for offensive actions in the south or simply logistical resupply, but it represents a potential area of increased risk.
The detention of Russian agents in Rivne Oblast for an attempted terrorist attack underscores the ongoing internal security threats faced by Ukraine and the importance of effective counterintelligence efforts to prevent destabilization and gather intelligence on Russian networks within the country.
The continued reporting of civilian casualties and damage on both sides of the front line highlights the devastating humanitarian impact of the conflict and the ongoing violation of international humanitarian law. Prioritizing minimizing civilian harm and collateral damage remains a critical ethical and strategic imperative.
The ongoing fundraising efforts by Russian military bloggers for equipment like drones and thermal imagers suggest that while the Russian state provides significant resources, there may still be gaps in supply at the unit level, and public support plays a role in bridging these gaps.
The reported self-dissolution of the PKK could have regional implications, particularly for Turkey, and might indirectly influence the broader geopolitical landscape surrounding the conflict.
The delivery of new Su-35S fighter jets to Russia indicates their continued efforts to maintain and modernize their air force, which remains a significant factor in the conflict.
The report of a Russian FAB-500 bomb falling in Belgorod Oblast, coupled with previous similar incidents, suggests potential technical challenges or errors in the use of guided munitions by Russian forces. This could have implications for the effectiveness of their air strikes and potentially pose risks to their own territory.
The US-China trade truce is a significant international economic development that could have broader geopolitical implications, although its direct impact on the conflict in Ukraine is not immediately clear.
The reported rocket threat in Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts, although later lifted, indicates that areas beyond the immediate front lines remain vulnerable to Russian missile strikes, necessitating continued air defense preparedness across a wide area.

Situation Report