Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 11, 2025, 12:46 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational picture continues to be dominated by conflicting narratives surrounding a potential ceasefire and ongoing military activities. Recent reports emphasize the divergent views on the sequencing of peace talks and a ceasefire, with key international figures stressing that a ceasefire must precede negotiations, directly contradicting Russia's stance. Military engagements persist, particularly in the Kursk border region, where Ukrainian forces are reported to be attempting incursions, and Russian forces are actively employing artillery and drones to repel them. Russian sources also claim continued operational activity across various fronts, detailing claimed Ukrainian losses and the destruction of equipment. Information operations remain pervasive, with Russia leveraging Victory Day commemorations and utilizing AI-generated content to promote patriotic narratives and discredit Ukrainian actions. A new element is the Pope's public statement expressing solidarity with Ukraine and calling for peace through negotiations, adding a significant moral and international dimension to the diplomatic landscape.
Key updates from the latest messages:
International Stance on Ceasefire and Negotiations:КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Оперативний ЗСУ, and РБК-Україна report that German Chancellor Merz stated that while Putin's proposal for direct talks is a "good sign," it is "far from sufficient," and that a ceasefire must precede negotiations. РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report that Poland's Prime Minister Tusk also stated that the world expects an immediate and unconditional ceasefire from Russia in response to the proposal for talks from May 15th. РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, and ASTRA report that Donald Trump's Special Representative, Keith Kellogg, explicitly stated that the sequencing should be a 30-day unconditional ceasefire first, followed by comprehensive peace talks, not the other way around. This indicates a unified stance among key international partners regarding the necessary preconditions for meaningful negotiations. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on Andriy Yermak's statement reiterating Ukraine's position that a 30-day unconditional ceasefire must come first, followed by negotiations, and that Russia should not use the ceasefire as a mask for continued war. ASTRA also reports that while Kellogg does not support Putin's idea of negotiations before a ceasefire, Trump himself expressed support for Putin's proposal for resuming talks, highlighting a potential divergence within the Trump circle. ТАСС reports that Leonid Slutsky, head of the Duma Committee on International Affairs, believes Ukraine could use a 30-day ceasefire for rearmament, new attacks, and provocations, reinforcing the Russian narrative against a ceasefire without preconditions.
Continued Fighting in Kursk Border Region:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports that Ukrainian forces are attempting reconnaissance in force near Tetkino from the direction of Iskrikovshchina and Ryzhevka, using over 10 personnel, with air reconnaissance and aviation support. Russian drone, artillery, and mortar units are actively identifying and destroying Ukrainian movements. Russian aviation reportedly disrupted a Ukrainian armored vehicle attack attempt towards Novy Put' in Sumy Oblast. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming the destruction of a US-made M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system near Tetkino by a Russian loitering munition. This confirms continued intense fighting and Ukrainian efforts in this area and highlights Russian use of drones and artillery.
Russian Claims of Operational Successes and Ukrainian Losses:Colonelcassad, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, provides detailed claims of Ukrainian losses across various groupings of Russian forces ("North," "West," "South," "Center," "East," "Dnepr"). These claims include hundreds of Ukrainian personnel killed or injured, and the destruction of numerous vehicles, artillery pieces, radar systems, and electronic warfare stations. Russian air defense is also claimed to have shot down three US-made JDAM guided bombs and 143 Ukrainian UAVs, with 8 downed outside the "special military operation" zone. These reports are part of the Russian information campaign to portray military success and degrade Ukrainian capabilities.
Pope's Call for Peace:РБК-Україна reports that the new Pope, Leo XIV, in his first message, expressed sorrow for the suffering of the Ukrainian people and called for negotiations to achieve "true, just, and lasting peace." This introduces a significant moral and international voice to the calls for a peaceful resolution.
Russian Victory Day Information Operations:Colonelcassad commemorates the 11th anniversary of the "DPR" and "LPR" referendums, framing them as a crucial step towards the return of Donbas to Russia and the ongoing conflict as necessary to complete this process. Воин DV shares videos of Russian military personnel being awarded in the "SVO zone," implying continued combat and recognition of actions. ТАСС reports that Putin was visibly moved by a scene in a new film about the war, "In the Lists Did Not Appear," suggesting the use of cultural products to evoke emotional responses related to the conflict. Alex Parker Returns shares a video linked to the India-Pakistan conflict, framing it as a rapid victory over a nuclear power and suggesting learning from their "military art," potentially a veiled commentary on the pace of Russia's own operations. Басурин о главном shares a historical note about Emperor Alexander III's manifesto on the inviolability of autocracy, framing liberalism as a virus that weakens Russia, linking historical narratives to current political ideology. Игорь Артамонов shares photos of a tree growing rapidly, which could be a metaphor for growth or change, though the specific context is unclear. Новости Москвы announces a "Museum Week," a normal cultural event in Moscow.
Alleged Internal Russian Issues:БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares an interview with a former Russian soldier who claims police are coercing individuals into military service for financial incentives and that commanders are indifferent to the wounded, referring to "self-evacuation." This provides anecdotal evidence of potential issues within the Russian military and recruitment system. ASTRA reports on residents of occupied Mariupol complaining on "DPR day" that their homes and businesses were confiscated by "DPR" authorities, who are building mortgage housing for Russians, highlighting internal tensions and discontent in occupied territories. Alex Parker Returns reports on two schoolchildren in Novokuznetsk allegedly attempting to blow up a military enlistment office for $50, framing it as a sign of misguided youth and a security concern.
Ukrainian Information Operations and Military Recognition:ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of Ukrainian National Guardsmen of the "Khartia" brigade clearing an enemy position in Kharkiv Oblast and demonstrating tactics. Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video recognizing mothers on Mother's Day, linking their love and prayers to the soldiers' strength and resilience. STERNENKO discusses the issue of credits for military personnel, noting that a law was passed without considering funding, highlighting a potential internal logistical/financial issue. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of Ukrainian soldiers repelling a Russian assault, noting the intensity of the attacks and the variety of equipment used by the Russians.
Geopolitical Analysis:Рыбарь reports on ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, highlighting efforts to de-escalate trade tensions. This is an unrelated international development.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Tetkino, Iskrikovshchina, Ryzhevka):Continued intense fighting and Ukrainian reconnaissance attempts.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Ukrainian reconnaissance in force and Russian countermeasures with drones, artillery, and mortars. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports the destruction of a Ukrainian M109 Paladin near Tetkino.
Sumy Oblast (Novy Put'):Russian aviation reportedly disrupted a Ukrainian armored vehicle attack attempt.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports launches of KABs towards Sumy.
Donetsk Oblast:Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports launches of KABs towards Donetsk Oblast.ASTRA reports on discontent among residents of occupied Mariupol regarding property confiscation. Colonelcassad commemorates the 11th anniversary of the "DPR" referendums. ТАСС, citing Andrey Marochko, claims Russian forces on the Luhansk border did not allow Ukrainian forces to break through their defense despite provocations and attempts to storm.
Kharkiv Oblast:ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a video of Ukrainian National Guardsmen clearing an enemy position here. Colonelcassad claims losses inflicted on a Ukrainian mechanized brigade and four assault regiments here.
Luhansk Oblast:ТАСС, citing Andrey Marochko, claims Russian forces on the Luhansk border did not allow Ukrainian forces to break through their defense despite provocations and attempts to storm.
Novokuznetsk (Russia):Reported alleged attempt by schoolchildren to attack a military enlistment office.Alex Parker Returns highlights this as a security concern.
Mariupol (Occupied Donetsk Oblast):Residents complaining about confiscation of property by "DPR" authorities.ASTRA highlights internal tensions and administrative issues in occupied territories.
Various Fronts (as per Russian MoD claims):Colonelcassad provides claimed Ukrainian losses and destruction of equipment across numerous operational areas, including those covered by the "North," "West," "South," "Center," "East," and "Dnepr" groupings of Russian forces.
Orikhiv Direction:БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of Ukrainian soldiers repelling a Russian assault here.
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs):Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports launches of KABs towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.Colonelcassad claims Russian air defense shot down three US-made JDAM guided bombs.
Drone Activity:Colonelcassad claims Russian air defense shot down 143 Ukrainian UAVs, with 8 downed outside the "special military operation" zone. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Russian drone units are identifying and destroying Ukrainian movements in the Kursk border region. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны shares a video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian M109 Paladin near Tetkino by a Russian loitering munition (drone). БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of Ukrainian soldiers repelling a Russian assault, implying the use of drones in the engagement. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports activity of enemy tactical aviation threatening frontline oblasts with aviation weapons, which can deliver guided bombs and potentially launch drones.
Aviation Activity:Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports launches of KABs towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, delivered by aviation.Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Russian aviation disrupted a Ukrainian armored vehicle attack attempt in Sumy Oblast. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine] reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in northeastern and southeastern directions with a threat of aviation weapons for frontline regions.
Missile Activity: While not explicitly mentioned as launched in the latest messages, the report of shot down JDAMs implies prior missile/guided bomb activity.
Artillery and MLRS Activity:Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Russian artillery and mortar calculations are identifying and destroying Ukrainian movements and locations in the Kursk border region. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports Ukrainian forces transferred artillery to support their attempts in the Kursk border region. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of numerous Ukrainian artillery pieces across various fronts.
Air Defense:Colonelcassad claims Russian air defense shot down three US-made JDAM guided bombs and 143 Ukrainian UAVs.
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Ceasefire Discussions:Germany, Poland, and a representative of Donald Trump publicly call for a ceasefire before negotiations, challenging Russia's preferred sequencing. (КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ASTRA)Andriy Yermak reiterates Ukraine's position on the need for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire first.(Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)ТАСС reports a Russian official believes Ukraine would use a ceasefire for rearmament and provocations.
Negotiation Proposals:РБК-Україна, ASTRA, and ТАСС report on the Putin-Erdoğan phone call discussing resuming negotiations in Istanbul from May 15th, with Turkey offering to facilitate. However, the Russian MFA reportedly ignored the ceasefire question in their readout.(РБК-Україна, ASTRA)Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition argues that Zelenskyy will not accept Putin's offer and that Europe also doesn't want a stable Ukraine, claiming Ukraine will use any talks to buy time for rearmament and predicting a large-scale provocation.
International Stance on Peace:РБК-Україна reports that the new Pope, Leo XIV, called for negotiations to achieve "true, just, and lasting peace" and expressed solidarity with Ukraine. This is a notable international voice advocating for a peaceful resolution. ТАСС reports on a new film about the war moving Putin, potentially a sign of using cultural elements to convey political messages.
Russia-Turkey Relations: Phone conversation between Putin and Erdoğan on potential negotiations and energy projects. (РБК-Україна, ASTRA, ТАСС)
Russian Information Operations: Actively promoting narratives of Ukrainian ceasefire violations (claimed over 14,000 violations), highlighting internal issues like migrant crime and security concerns, commemorating "DPR" and "LPR" anniversaries to reinforce territorial claims, and using state media and military bloggers to promote military successes and patriotic narratives. (Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Воин DV, Басурин о главном) Utilizing AI-generated content for propaganda is also indicated.
Internal Russian Politics: Concerns about US intelligence surveillance via mobile devices (from previous reporting). Reported detention of a vehicle with a mobile drone system in Moscow Oblast (from previous reporting). Reported alleged attempt by schoolchildren to attack a military enlistment office. Reports of police coercing individuals into military service for financial incentives. Discussions around internal security issues. (Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Internal Ukrainian Issues: Discussion about a Ukrainian blogger with alleged ties to Russia (from previous reporting). Discussion about the issue of credits for military personnel. (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц", STERNENKO)
Ukrainian Information Operations: Recognition of mothers on Mother's Day and linking their support to the soldiers' efforts. Highlighting the actions of Ukrainian military units. (Оперативний ЗСУ, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Geopolitical Developments:Рыбарь reports on US-China trade negotiations. Alex Parker Returns comments on the India-Pakistan conflict. These are unrelated international developments.
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security: Reported alleged attempt by schoolchildren to attack a military enlistment office in Novokuznetsk. Reports of police coercing individuals into military service for financial incentives, potentially highlighting issues within law enforcement and military recruitment. (Alex Parker Returns, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Civilian Impact: ASTRA reports on residents of occupied Mariupol complaining about property confiscation by "DPR" authorities, highlighting internal tensions and administrative issues in occupied territories. (ASTRA)
Information Control and Propaganda: Active efforts to control the narrative through state media and military bloggers, focusing on Ukrainian violations, internal threats, and justifying government actions and historical narratives. Utilizing AI-generated content for propaganda. (Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Воин DV, Басурин о главном) Using cultural products like films to evoke emotional responses related to the conflict. (ТАСС)
Socio-Political Issues: Concerns about migrant crime and related incidents are being actively reported and discussed (from previous reporting). Proposals for stricter laws targeting Russians abroad (from previous reporting). Historical narratives are being used to reinforce political ideology, such as the emphasis on autocracy. (Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Басурин о главном)
Military Welfare/Recruitment: Anecdotal evidence of potential coercion into military service and indifference to the wounded through an interview with a former soldier. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Discontent in Occupied Territories: Residents of occupied Mariupol expressing discontent over property confiscation and lack of reconstruction compared to housing for Russians. (ASTRA)
Cultural Events: Announcement of a "Museum Week" in Moscow. (Новости Москвы)
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Military Support: Continued recognition and awarding of Russian military personnel. (Воин DV) Reports of fundraising efforts by Ukrainian military bloggers for equipment. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Social Support: Ukrainian military units expressing gratitude and recognition for mothers on Mother's Day, highlighting the role of civilian support. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Internal Issues impacting Support: Discussion about the issue of credits for Ukrainian military personnel, indicating potential financial/logistical challenges in supporting servicemen. (STERNENKO) Anecdotal evidence of poor treatment of wounded Russian soldiers through the concept of "self-evacuation" (from interview shared by BУТУСОВ ПЛЮС).
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russian Forces: Immediate resumption of military activity, including apparent advances and engagements, following the end of the claimed ceasefire. Continued use of UAVs (loitering munitions, reconnaissance drones). Employing artillery and mortars in border regions. Utilizing aviation for strikes and disrupting Ukrainian movements. Claiming significant Ukrainian losses and destruction of equipment across multiple fronts. Reports of police coercing individuals into military service, suggesting potential recruitment challenges. (Kotsnews, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], ТАСС)
Ukrainian Forces: Engaging in reconnaissance attempts in border regions, utilizing personnel with air reconnaissance and aviation support. Reportedly attempting armored vehicle attacks. Utilizing artillery in border regions. Operating military units in Kharkiv Oblast to clear enemy positions. Repelling Russian assaults on various fronts. Utilizing drones (implied in repelling assaults). (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Операция Z: Военкоры Русню, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Equipment: Reports of Ukrainian M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery being destroyed near Tetkino. Claims of destruction of various Ukrainian armored vehicles, artillery pieces, radar systems, and electronic warfare stations by Russian forces. Claims of Russian air defense shooting down US-made JDAM guided bombs. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad)
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The unified stance of Germany, Poland, and a representative of Donald Trump in calling for a ceasefire before negotiations, and explicitly stating the desired sequencing, represents a notable degree of coordination among key international partners and puts increased diplomatic pressure on Russia to accept a ceasefire as a necessary first step. This challenges Russia's preferred sequencing of discussing "root causes" first. The reiteration of this stance by Andriy Yermak further emphasizes the alignment between Ukraine and these international partners.
The immediate return to military activity following the declared ceasefire, and the Russian narrative portraying Ukraine as responsible for violations and unlikely to adhere to a ceasefire, strongly indicates that Russia's priority remains military pressure and that any diplomatic initiatives are likely to be conducted in parallel with ongoing combat operations. The statement by Leonid Slutsky reinforces the Russian strategic view that a ceasefire would only benefit Ukraine.
The continued intense fighting in the Kursk border region, with reported Ukrainian reconnaissance attempts and Russian countermeasures, underscores the strategic importance of this area for both sides. Ukrainian activity here may be aimed at diverting Russian resources or creating a new point of pressure, while Russia is committed to defending its border regions. The destruction of a Ukrainian M109 Paladin in this area highlights the intensity of engagements and the presence of significant military assets.
The Pope's public statement is strategically significant as it adds a moral and international voice to the calls for peace and highlights the humanitarian impact of the conflict. While not directly influencing military operations, it contributes to the international diplomatic landscape and can influence public opinion.
Russia's extensive information operations around Victory Day, including the commemoration of the "DPR" and "LPR" referendums, the awarding of military personnel, the use of cultural products, and the utilization of AI-generated content, are all strategically aimed at solidifying domestic support, projecting an image of strength, justifying the conflict, and influencing international perceptions. The historical framing, particularly linking the current conflict to WWII narratives, is a key element of this strategy. The historical reflection on autocracy shared by Basurin o Glavnom is a clear example of using historical narratives to support current political ideology.
The reported internal issues in Russia, such as potential coercion into military service and discontent in occupied territories, while anecdotal, could have long-term strategic implications for Russia's ability to sustain its military efforts and maintain control over occupied areas. The alleged attempt by schoolchildren to attack a military enlistment office, if true, highlights potential internal security vulnerabilities and youth radicalization.
The Ukrainian information operations, such as recognizing mothers on Mother's Day and highlighting military unit actions, are strategically aimed at maintaining morale, fostering national unity, and demonstrating military effectiveness to both domestic and international audiences.
The discussion about the issue of credits for Ukrainian military personnel highlights a potential internal logistical/financial challenge that could impact military welfare and morale, which are strategically important for sustaining the war effort.
The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China, while not directly related to the Ukraine conflict, represent a significant development in the global geopolitical landscape and could have indirect strategic implications for resource allocation and international alliances.
The Russian claims of inflicting significant Ukrainian losses across multiple fronts are part of a strategic narrative to demonstrate military superiority and demoralize the opposing forces. While these claims require independent verification, they are a consistent element of Russian information operations.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
