Sitrep 2025-05-11 12:16:48

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 11, 2025, 12:16 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational landscape remains fluid, with immediate aerial threats and ongoing diplomatic maneuvering despite claims of a ceasefire. Kyiv and several oblasts experienced air raid alerts due to a ballistic missile threat, which have since been cleared, indicating the continued and unpredictable nature of Russian aerial attacks. Diplomatic efforts continue, with a phone call between Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdoğan. Erdoğan reportedly offered to host negotiations in Istanbul and welcomed Putin's openness to resuming talks there, emphasizing that an "all-encompassing ceasefire" is crucial for peace discussions. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry maintains its stance of prioritizing negotiations on the "root causes" of the conflict before any ceasefire, revealing a significant divergence in preconditions for talks. Meanwhile, internal Russian information operations are actively exploiting domestic issues, including concerns about migrant crime and proposals for stricter laws targeting Russians abroad critical of the state. A notable development is the reported detention in Moscow Oblast of a vehicle allegedly containing a mobile drone launch and control system, which Russian sources are using to support narratives about Ukrainian deep strikes originating from within Russia. On the military tactical front, a Ukrainian source details the observed Russian use of Shaheds equipped with a double warhead, including cluster submunitions designed for delayed detonation, presenting a new and dangerous threat to civilian areas. A Ukrainian military blogger also shared a video purportedly showing a Russian FPV drone hitting a Ukrainian soldier's helmet without detonating, highlighting the prevalent drone threat and potential protective measures. Regional de-escalation appears to be occurring in the India-Pakistan conflict, with India reportedly declaring victory and reopening a dam. International responses to the Russian negotiation proposal continue to emerge, with Germany's Chancellor Merz and Poland's Prime Minister Tusk emphasizing the necessity of a ceasefire preceding any meaningful negotiations. Donald Trump's Special Representative, Keith Kellogg, has also explicitly stated that a 30-day unconditional ceasefire should come first, followed by comprehensive peace talks, not the reverse.

Key updates from the latest messages:

Air Raid Alerts and Ballistic Missile Threat in Kyiv and Other Oblasts: КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and Оперативний ЗСУ confirmed the clearing of air raid alerts and ballistic missile threat alerts in Kyiv and several other oblasts. This signifies the immediate return to Russian missile activity after the claimed ceasefire.
Putin-Erdoğan Phone Conversation on Negotiations: ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report on the phone call. Erdoğan reportedly reiterated Turkey's willingness to host negotiations in Istanbul and welcomed Putin's openness to resuming talks there, stating an "all-encompassing ceasefire" is needed for peace talks. The Kremlin confirms detailed discussions on resuming direct negotiations from May 15th and Erdoğan's support and offer to facilitate, also mentioning mutual interest in energy projects. РБК-Україна and ASTRA note that the Kremlin's readout of the conversation appears to have ignored the question of a ceasefire, highlighting a potential discrepancy in reported outcomes.
Russian Stance on Negotiation Sequencing: Kotsnews, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, reiterates the claim that Kyiv violated the claimed three-day ceasefire 14,043 times, including 5 attempts to break through the state border and 4011 shellings. Kotsnews uses this to question how Ukraine can commit to a 30-day ceasefire and frames the proposed ceasefire from the "coalition of the determined" as an ultimatum where only Russia is expected to cease fire, based on past experiences with the Minsk agreements. Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition argues that Zelenskyy will not accept Putin's offer for negotiations without preconditions because the ongoing conflict is a guarantee of his power and safety, and Europe also doesn't want a stable Ukraine. They claim Ukraine will use any negotiation attempts to buy time for rearmament and predict a large-scale provocation by Ukraine to blame Russia. This reinforces the Russian narrative that Ukraine is not genuinely interested in peace talks without preconditions. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 echoes the sentiment that Ukraine is not serious about a ceasefire, citing continued offensive actions and extensive drone use.
De-escalation in India-Pakistan Conflict: РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, and Colonelcassad report on India declaring victory and reopening a dam after a ceasefire with Pakistan. РБК-Україна notes the dam opening was due to increased water levels and occurred without discussion of the Indus Waters Treaty. This confirms a further de-escalation in this regional conflict.
Internal Russian Issues and Information Operations: Два майора raises concerns about the use of modern mobile devices and their Advertising ID function as a potential tool for US intelligence surveillance (PRISM system and Adint) and suggests disabling these features for military personnel and officials, also questioning the lack of national information systems without integration with "enemy intelligence services." Alex Parker Returns shares a video about migrant children in Obninsk, Kaluga Oblast, being detained and apologizing for desecrating a flag in the colors of the St. George ribbon, advocating for their deportation and framing it within the context of issues with "replaceable specialists." ASTRA reports on residents of occupied Mariupol complaining on "DPR day" that their homes and businesses were confiscated by "DPR" authorities, who are building mortgage housing for Russians, highlighting internal tensions and discontent in occupied territories. Alex Parker Returns shares a video about two schoolchildren in Novokuznetsk allegedly attempting to blow up a military enlistment office for $50, framing it as a sign of misguided youth and a security concern. These are clear examples of Russian internal issues being highlighted and exploited within the information space.
Ukrainian Deep Strikes and Counter-Drone Efforts: STERNENKO reports Ukrainian Air Defense shot down three Russian reconnaissance UAVs (1 Orlan and 2 Supercam) overnight. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС previously reported the destruction of a rare Russian 2S43 "Malva" self-propelled artillery system by Ukrainian drones in Belgorod Oblast. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on Russian efforts to counter Ukrainian reconnaissance attempts and attacks in the Kursk border region, including disrupting a Ukrainian attack with armored vehicles in Sumy Oblast using aviation.
New Russian Drone Tactic: Оперативний ЗСУ previously detailed the observed Russian use of Shaheds with a double warhead, including delayed-action cluster submunitions. This new tactic poses a significant threat.
Tactical Engagements and Losses: Оперативний ЗСУ shares a video showing Ukrainian National Guardsmen and allied units destroying a Russian tank and crew on the Pokrovsk direction during the claimed ceasefire. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on ongoing combat and Russian efforts to repel Ukrainian reconnaissance and attack attempts in the Kursk border region, including engaging Ukrainian forces with drones, artillery, and mortars. ТАСС, citing military expert Andrey Marochko, claims Russian forces on the Luhansk border did not allow Ukrainian forces to break through their defense despite provocations and attempts to storm. Воин DV shares a video of Russian military personnel being awarded in the "SVO zone," implying continued combat and recognition of actions.
Russian Military Engagement: Colonelcassad and MoD Russia previously reported on Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov's meeting with the Commander of the Libyan National Army, Khalifa Haftar, discussing bilateral cooperation. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА discusses a Reuters report about Iran potentially sending Fath-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia, framing it as a potential strengthening of Russian offensive capabilities and evidence of deepening Russia-Iran ties, while also expressing skepticism about the source.
International Responses to Negotiation Proposals: Оперативний ЗСУ and РБК-Україна report that Germany's Chancellor Merz stated that while Putin's proposal for direct talks is a "good sign," it is "far from sufficient," and that a ceasefire must precede negotiations. РБК-Україна and STERNENKO report that Poland's Prime Minister Tusk also stated that the world expects an immediate and unconditional ceasefire from Russia in response to the proposal for talks from May 15th. РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report that Donald Trump's Special Representative, Keith Kellogg, explicitly stated that the sequencing should be a 30-day unconditional ceasefire first, followed by comprehensive peace talks, not the other way around. This indicates a unified stance among key international partners regarding the necessary preconditions for meaningful negotiations.
Information Operations: Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц" discusses a Ukrainian blogger who shared a photo with a Russian blogger with alleged ties to Russian show business and who has not condemned the war, framing it as a provocation. Colonelcassad commemorates the 11th anniversary of the "DPR" and "LPR" referendums, framing them as a crucial step towards the return of Donbas to Russia and the ongoing conflict as necessary to complete this process. Kotsnews, WarGonzo, and Воин DV are promoting Russian military narratives and actions, including highlighting claimed Ukrainian ceasefire violations and awarding military personnel.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Kyiv and surrounding Oblasts (potentially including other central/northern regions): Subjected to a ballistic missile threat air raid alert, since cleared. (КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk): Reported Russian advance and Ukrainian destruction of a Russian tank and crew during the claimed ceasefire. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts (Russia): Ongoing combat in the border region. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports on Ukrainian reconnaissance and attack attempts near Tetkino and Russian efforts to counter them. ТАСС, citing Andrey Marochko, claims Ukrainian attempts to storm Russian lines in Luhansk (bordering Donetsk Oblast). Kotsnews, citing the Russian MoD, claims Ukraine attempted to break through the state border 5 times and conducted 4011 shellings across the Line of Contact during the ceasefire. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС previously reported the destruction of a Russian self-propelled artillery system in Belgorod Oblast by Ukrainian drones.
Sumy Oblast: Subjected to Russian aerial strikes (guided aerial bombs) and Russian forces claim to have disrupted a Ukrainian attack attempt with armored vehicles using aviation. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Moscow Oblast (Russia): Reported detention of a vehicle containing a mobile drone launch and control system. (Alex Parker Returns, Два майора) This is significant as it suggests the potential presence of Ukrainian assets capable of conducting deep strikes from within Russia.
Kaluga Oblast (Russia) (Obninsk): Reported incident of migrant children desecrating a flag. (Alex Parker Returns) This highlights internal social tensions being exploited for propaganda.
Novokuznetsk (Russia): Reported alleged attempt by schoolchildren to blow up a military enlistment office. (Alex Parker Returns) This highlights internal security concerns.
Mariupol (Occupied Donetsk Oblast): Residents complaining about confiscation of property by "DPR" authorities. (ASTRA) This highlights internal tensions and administrative issues in occupied territories.
India/Pakistan border regions: De-escalation of the conflict, with India declaring victory and reopening a dam. (РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad)
Libya: Meeting between Russian Defence Minister and Khalifa Haftar. (Colonelcassad, MoD Russia) This indicates continued Russian engagement in the Libyan conflict.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Ballistic Missile Threat: Air raid alerts triggered in Kyiv and several other oblasts due to the threat of ballistic missile use, since cleared. (КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Drone Activity: Ukrainian Air Defense shot down three Russian reconnaissance UAVs (1 Orlan, 2 Supercam). (STERNENKO) Kotsnews, citing the Russian MoD, claims Ukraine used drones extensively, with 14,043 ceasefire violations reported. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Russian forces using drones to counter Ukrainian attempts in the Kursk border region. Оперативний ЗСУ previously reported on the observed Russian use of Shaheds with a double warhead, including cluster submunitions. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС previously reported the destruction of a Russian self-propelled artillery system in Belgorod Oblast by Ukrainian drones. Alex Parker Returns and Два майора report the detention of a vehicle in Moscow Oblast allegedly containing a mobile drone launch and control system, linked to Ukrainian deep strikes. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС previously shared a video purportedly showing a Russian FPV drone hitting a Ukrainian soldier's helmet but not detonating. This indicates continued intense drone warfare and the emergence of new and dangerous drone tactics.
Aviation Activity: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports launches of KABs towards Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Russian aviation disrupted a Ukrainian attack attempt in Sumy Oblast. The threat of ballistic missile use implies potential involvement of Russian aviation assets or missile forces. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in northeastern and southeastern directions with a threat of aviation weapons for frontline regions.
Missile Activity: A ballistic missile threat was the reason for air raid alerts. (КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ) АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА discusses the potential transfer of Iranian Fath-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia.
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Kotsnews, citing the Russian MoD, claims 4011 shellings by Ukrainian forces across the Line of Contact during the ceasefire. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 reports Russian artillery and mortar calculations are identifying and destroying Ukrainian movements and locations in the Kursk border region.
Air Defense: STERNENKO reports Ukrainian Air Defense shot down three Russian reconnaissance UAVs.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Ceasefire Discussions: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, along with European leaders, previously held a joint call with Donald Trump to propose a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdoğan discussed resuming direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul from May 15th, with Turkey offering to facilitate. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS) However, the Russian MFA reiterates its stance of "first negotiations on root causes, then a ceasefire." (Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition) Germany's Chancellor Merz and Poland's Prime Minister Tusk emphasize the necessity of a ceasefire preceding negotiations. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO) Donald Trump's Special Representative, Keith Kellogg, explicitly states a 30-day unconditional ceasefire should come first, followed by comprehensive peace talks, not the reverse. (РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Ukraine-International Relations: Ukrainian Air Force sarcastically links the ballistic missile threat to "Putin's peaceful initiatives." (Оперативний ЗСУ) Ukraine continues to receive military aid (previously reported British Raven air defense systems).
Russia-Turkey Relations: Phone conversation between Putin and Erdoğan on potential negotiations and energy projects. (ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russia-Iran Relations: Discussion about the potential transfer of Iranian ballistic missile launchers to Russia. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Russia-Libya Relations: Meeting between Russian Defence Minister and Khalifa Haftar. (Colonelcassad, MoD Russia)
India-Pakistan Relations: De-escalation of the conflict. (РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Colonelcassad)
Russian Information Operations: Actively promoting narratives of Ukrainian ceasefire violations, highlighting internal issues like migrant crime and security concerns, and commemorating "DPR" and "LPR" anniversaries to reinforce territorial claims. (Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Colonelcassad) Promoting military awards and actions. (Воин DV)
Internal Russian Politics: Proposals for stricter laws targeting Russians abroad critical of the state. Discussions around internal security issues. (ТАСС, Два майora, Alex Parker Returns)
Internal Ukrainian Issues: Discussion about a Ukrainian blogger with alleged ties to Russia. (Анатолій Штефан "Штірліц")
International Responses to Russian Actions: Germany and Poland, along with a representative of Donald Trump, publicly call for a ceasefire before negotiations, signaling a degree of coordinated international pressure on Russia. (Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security: Concerns about US intelligence surveillance via mobile devices. Reported detention of a vehicle with a mobile drone system in Moscow Oblast. Reported alleged attempt by schoolchildren to attack a military enlistment office. (Два майора, Alex Parker Returns)
Civilian Impact: ASTRA reports on residents of occupied Mariupol complaining about property confiscation. (ASTRA)
Information Control and Propaganda: Active efforts to control the narrative through state media and military bloggers, focusing on Ukrainian violations, internal threats, and justifying government actions and historical narratives. (Kotsnews, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Colonelcassad)
Socio-Political Issues: Concerns about migrant crime and related incidents are being actively reported and discussed. Proposals for stricter laws targeting Russians abroad. (ТАСС, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns)
Cybersecurity Concerns: Discussion about the potential for Western intelligence to use modern mobile devices for surveillance and the need for improved cybersecurity for military and officials. (Два майора)
Discontent in Occupied Territories: Residents of occupied Mariupol expressing discontent over property confiscation and lack of reconstruction compared to housing for Russians. (ASTRA)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

No new significant updates in the immediate latest messages.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russian Forces: Immediate resumption of missile activity targeting Ukrainian territory following the end of the claimed ceasefire. Continued use of UAVs, including the newly observed tactic of using Shaheds with delayed-action cluster submunitions. Engaged in ground combat on the Pokrovsk direction, attempting advances. Conducting numerous international military engagements. Experiencing losses of military equipment (tank reported destroyed by Ukrainian forces). Potential presence of Ukrainian drone systems within Russia (indicated by the detention in Moscow Oblast). Actively countering Ukrainian reconnaissance and attack attempts in border regions with drones, artillery, mortars, and aviation. Discussing potential acquisition of Iranian ballistic missile launchers. Promoting military awards and actions to boost morale. (КМВА (Київська міська військова військова адміністрація), Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Воин DV)
Ukrainian Forces: Maintaining air defense capabilities, successfully shooting down Russian reconnaissance UAVs. Engaging in ground combat on the Pokrovsk direction, reportedly destroying a Russian tank. Continuing cross-border operations (claimed by Russian MoD and military bloggers). Facing the new threat of Shaheds with delayed-action cluster submunitions. Utilizing FPV drones. Potentially operating drone systems within Russia (suggested by the detention in Moscow Oblast). Countering Russian reconnaissance and attack attempts in border regions. (STERNENKO, WarGonzo, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Два майора, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The immediate return to missile activity targeting Kyiv and other regions after the declared ceasefire strongly indicates that Russia's priority remains military pressure and that any diplomatic initiatives are likely to be conducted in parallel with ongoing combat operations. This reinforces the skepticism surrounding the sincerity of Russia's "festive ceasefire."
The phone conversation between Putin and Erdoğan, while highlighting a willingness to discuss negotiations, also underscores the fundamental disconnect in their approaches: Ukraine and Turkey advocating for a ceasefire as a prerequisite for talks, while Russia insists on discussing "root causes" first. The reported omission of the ceasefire discussion in the Kremlin's readout of the call with Erdoğan, as highlighted by Ukrainian sources, could be a deliberate information tactic to control the narrative and downplay the importance of an immediate ceasefire in Russia's view.
The Russian MFA's explicit statement reiterating the "first negotiations on root causes, then a ceasefire" stance further solidifies Russia's position and suggests they are unlikely to agree to an unconditional ceasefire before addressing their perceived core issues, which include territorial control and Ukraine's non-alignment. The argument from Russian sources that Ukraine's alleged violations of the claimed ceasefire demonstrate their inability to adhere to such agreements in the future is a clear strategic information operation aimed at discrediting calls for a ceasefire.
The reported detention of a vehicle in Moscow Oblast allegedly containing a mobile drone system is a significant development. If confirmed as a Ukrainian asset, it demonstrates Ukraine's capability to project force deep into Russian territory and potentially conduct strikes from unexpected locations. This would necessitate a strategic reassessment of Russian internal security measures and potentially influence their defensive posture.
The observed use of Shaheds with delayed-action cluster submunitions is a dangerous new tactic that significantly increases the threat to civilian populations over a wider area and for a prolonged period. This requires immediate attention for developing countermeasures, improving air defense capabilities against this specific threat, and enhancing public awareness.
The continued exploitation of internal Russian issues, such as migrant crime and alleged attempts to attack military facilities, and the proposal for stricter laws targeting Russians abroad, are clear strategic information operations aimed at solidifying domestic support, creating internal divisions, and suppressing dissent. These efforts are intertwined with the broader conflict narrative.
The de-escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict, while positive for regional stability, has limited direct strategic implications for the conflict in Ukraine, although it could indirectly affect global attention and resource availability.
Russia's continued extensive international engagement with military leadership from various regions, including the reported meeting with Khalifa Haftar and discussions about potential Iranian missile transfers, underscores its efforts to maintain alliances and counter international isolation. This is a key strategic effort to sustain their long-term capabilities and geopolitical influence.
The ongoing intense ground combat in Donetsk Oblast, as evidenced by the reported Russian advance and Ukrainian counter-actions, confirms that the eastern front remains a primary focus for both sides, and territorial control in this region remains a key strategic objective.
The skepticism expressed by both Russian and Ukrainian military bloggers regarding the ceasefire and negotiation processes highlights the deep mistrust and the understanding that military realities on the ground are likely to be the primary drivers of future developments.
The unified stance of Germany, Poland, and a representative of Donald Trump in calling for a ceasefire before negotiations, and explicitly stating the desired sequencing, represents a notable degree of coordination among key international partners and puts increased diplomatic pressure on Russia to accept a ceasefire as a necessary first step. This challenges Russia's preferred sequencing of discussing "root causes" first.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

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