Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 10, 2025, 04:10 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment continues to be characterized by ongoing ground combat and persistent Russian aerial activity, including the reported launches and subsequent clearing of guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Russia is extensively engaged in information operations surrounding Victory Day. Diplomatic exchanges highlight differing perspectives on conflict resolution. The significant escalation between India and Pakistan, with Pakistan's announcement of a large-scale military operation and continued airspace closures, remains a major regional development, with India now stating Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian forces will respond. Reports of a captured Ukrainian servicewoman and alleged mistreatment of Russian prisoners of war continue to be used for propaganda. An internal Russian issue concerning scamming activities has been reported. Recent messages reiterate Russian positions on negotiations and the role of the US in potential mediation. A completed corruption case against a former senior official in the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations has been detailed. New information includes data on the average social pension size in Russia and a Russian military blogger highlighting the role and capabilities of signal units. There is currently no detected presence of Russian missile carriers in the Black or Azov Seas, although a Kalibr carrier is reported in the Mediterranean.Donald Trump has publicly addressed both Zelenskyy and Putin, urging an end to the conflict. Russian sources are circulating images of KAB strikes in Kharkiv Oblast and a large flag display in occupied Donetsk. A large flag of the "DPR" was displayed in the center of Donetsk ahead of the "Republic Day".
New information indicates:
Continued Russian Advances: DeepState reports Russian forces have advanced near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka. This signifies continued localized Russian offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Pakistan Showcases Fateh-1 Missile System: TASS shares a video claiming to show the launch of a Fateh-1 missile and its impact on Indian military facilities by Pakistani armed forces. This is likely part of Pakistan's information operations to demonstrate its capabilities amidst escalating tensions with India. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
North Korean Support for Russia: RBC-Ukraine reports that Kim Jong Un has stated North Korea's participation in the "Russian-Ukrainian war" was justified, calling it an exercise of sovereign rights to protect a "brotherly nation." He reportedly praised participants in the "Kursk operation" and warned the US against military provocations against Russia, stating North Korea would not hesitate to use military force. This signals explicit political and ideological support from North Korea for Russia's actions and introduces a potential for North Korean involvement or support in the conflict, though the extent and nature of this "participation" remain unclear from this statement. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Russian Propaganda Leveraging Children and Victory Day: Two Majors shares a video of children in Kazan performing a song about a deceased Russian soldier, linking it to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War and the "Immortal Regiment." This is a clear example of Russian information operations using children and historical narratives to evoke patriotic feelings and legitimize the current conflict ("SMO"). (Два майора, Два майора)
Ukrainian Airborne Forces Highlight Partnership with "Come Back Alive" Foundation: The Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces share a photo message on the 11th anniversary of the "Come Back Alive" foundation, detailing the foundation's significant support through providing weaponry (machine guns, grenade launchers, mortars), drone systems ("Pulstron" complexes with FPV, "Kazhan" strike, and reconnaissance drones, vehicles, Starlink, etc.), sniper systems, and logistical support (tablets, laptops, radios, power sources). This highlights the vital role of volunteer foundations in equipping and supporting the Ukrainian military and showcases the modern technological capabilities being integrated into their forces, particularly in drone warfare and precision targeting. (Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України)
Iran Preparing to Supply Ballistic Missile Launchers to Russia: Reuters, via RBC-Ukraine, reports that Iran is preparing to transfer Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia. These missiles have a range of up to 120 km and could be used against Ukrainian forces near the border, including military facilities and settlements. This would represent a significant strengthening of Russia's offensive capabilities with precision short-range ballistic missiles and indicates deepening military cooperation between Russia and Iran. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
High-Level European Leaders Visiting Kyiv: Operatyvnyy ZSU reports that French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz, British Prime Minister Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk are en route to Kyiv. Macron announced his visit on social media. This demonstrates continued high-level political and diplomatic support for Ukraine from key European nations. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction, Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk, Romanivka, Oleksandropil, Nova Poltavka, Makeyevka, Orikhiv Direction, LPR/DPR Occupied Territories): Russian forces continue reporting advances. Launches of KABs were detected towards Donetsk Oblast, but the threat has been cleared. Colonelcassad shares videos and photos related to alleged atrocities and ongoing operations. Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny reports claims about Ukrainian psychological operations. Colonelcassad shares videos related to alleged mistreatment of Russian POWs and monument restoration. The threat from aerial attacks for Donetsk Oblast has been cleared.A large "DPR" flag was displayed in the center of Donetsk.DeepState reports Russian forces have advanced near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka.(DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Sumy Oblast (Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk, Nedryhailiv): Civilian casualties reported due to Russian shelling. Rocket danger announced. Russian forces claim destruction of Ukrainian assets. New launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast were reported, but the threat has been cleared. The threat from aerial attacks for Sumy Oblast has been cleared.(Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна)
Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk): Russian forces claim destruction of Ukrainian assets, including UAV control points. (Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Kursk Border Region (including Tetkino): Continued active engagement and reported Ukrainian attempts at incursions. Russian military bloggers report engagements and fundraising. Kim Jong Un reportedly praised participants in the "Kursk operation."(Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Odesa Oblast (Reni): Firework display reported, attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources. (Два майора, Два майора)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Missile danger announced and cleared. Military personnel of the Russian "Vostok" grouping conducted an auto rally to congratulate civilians. Colonelcassad shares a video about monument restoration. (Previous reporting, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Kapustin Yar Test Site (Astrakhan and Volgograd/Saratov Oblasts, Russia): Airspace closure suggests planned missile testing or activity. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Rawalpindi, Pakistan: Powerful explosion reported, believed to be an Indian strike. Fire reported. Conflicting claims of interceptions. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Islamabad, Pakistan: Air defense systems actively working. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Amritsar, India: Four explosions reported. Pakistan claims five ballistic missiles hit. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Adampur, India: Pakistan claims one ballistic missile hit. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Rafiki Airbase (near Shorkot, Jang district, Pakistan): Pakistan claims interception of Indian cruise missiles. India claims strikes. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Murid Airbase, Pakistan: Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles. India claims strikes. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Shorkot Airbase, Pakistan: Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles and intercepted cruise missiles. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Kyiv: High-level European leaders are in Kyiv. French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz, British Prime Minister Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk are en route to Kyiv.(ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Moscow: Reports indicate the presence of foreign leaders for Victory Day. Commemorative events. Putin's meetings. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
New York (UN Headquarters): Russian Permanent Mission organized a commemorative event. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
India-Pakistan Border Region: Pakistan initiated a large-scale military operation and temporarily closed its airspace. Pakistan claims striking Indian airbases and a BrahMos missile storage depot. India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond.Pakistan shares video claiming Fateh-1 missile launch and impact on Indian military objects.(ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Pathankot Airfield, India: Pakistan claims to have struck this airfield. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Udhampur Air Force Base, India: Pakistan claims to have struck this airbase. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Beas, India: Pakistan claims to have struck a BrahMos missile storage depot here. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Kolodeznoye (Kharkiv Oblast):Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes on Ukrainian troop locations here.(Colonelcassad)
Kazan (Russia):Children performed a song about a deceased Russian soldier, linked to Victory Day.(Два майора, Два майора)
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Russian and Ukrainian drone activity continues. Claims of drone attacks and interceptions on both sides. Fundraising efforts for drones. Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces highlight significant drone capabilities received from a foundation, including FPV, strike ("Kazhan"), and reconnaissance drones.(Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Repeated launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast were reported, but the threat has been cleared. The threat from aerial attacks for Donetsk and Sumy has been cleared.Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes on Ukrainian troop locations in Kolodeznoye, Kharkiv Oblast.(Previous reporting, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad)
Missile Activity: Missile danger announced in southern Ukraine. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site. Reports of potential Iranian supply of missiles to Russia. India and Pakistan report exchanges involving ballistic and cruise missiles. The Ukrainian Navy reports one Kalibr carrier with 8 missiles in the Mediterranean Sea.Reuters, via RBC-Ukraine, reports Iran is preparing to supply Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia.Pakistan shares video claiming Fateh-1 missile launch and impact on Indian military objects.(Previous reporting, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Aviation Activity: Activity of enemy tactical aviation reported on southeastern and northeastern directions. Potential Indian air strike on a Pakistani Air Force Base. Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles. India claims strikes on Pakistani airbases. Pakistan has announced the temporary closure of its airspace. Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes from aviation in Kharkiv Oblast.(Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, Colonelcassad)
Naval Activity: No new specific naval engagements reported. Ukrainian maritime drone operations suggested. The Ukrainian Navy reports zero Russian naval vessels or Kalibr missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas as of 06:00 on May 10th, but one Kalibr carrier with 8 missiles in the Mediterranean. Logistical movement through the Kerch Strait continues.(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Air Defense Activity: Air defense systems active over Islamabad, Pakistan. Pakistan claims interceptions. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Victory Day Narratives: Extensive Russian information operations around Victory Day continue, emphasizing historical narratives and linking them to the ongoing conflict. Celebratory events are reported. Foreign leaders are in Moscow for celebrations. Russian officials are making statements related to the holiday. A large "DPR" flag was displayed in the center of Donetsk ahead of "Republic Day."Two Majors shares a video of children performing a song about a deceased Russian soldier and Victory Day, as part of information operations.(Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, Два майора, Два майора)
International Efforts for Peace: Discussions regarding a 30-day ceasefire proposal continue. Different perspectives on negotiations and the role of mediators are highlighted. TASS reports Peskov stated that Ukraine wants to avoid negotiations.TASS reports Peskov stated that a temporary truce must include a cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine.TASS reports Peskov stated Russia hopes US mediation will help convince Kyiv to be more flexible.Colonelcassad reports European Parliamentarians are calling for dialogue with Russia due to the risk of nuclear war.РБК-Україна, citing ABC News, reports Peskov reiterated that for a ceasefire, the West must stop supplying weapons to Ukraine and repeated claims of Kyiv avoiding negotiations and the potential role of US/Trump mediation.Donald Trump has publicly appealed to Zelenskyy and Putin to "finish this stupid war."(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russia-Brazil Relations: The topic of Ukraine was raised during Putin's meeting with Brazilian President Lula da Silva. (Previous reporting)
Russia-Slovakia Relations: Putin valued Slovak Prime Prime Minister Fico's attendance at Victory Day celebrations, and Fico's stance on sanctions and energy supplies were highlighted. (Previous reporting, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Bail posted for a former official. Discussion of EU accession timeline. Concerns raised about Hungarian intelligence activities. Alleged forced mobilization claimed by Russian sources. Captured Ukrainian servicewoman used for propaganda. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Internal Russian Politics: Comments on a ceasefire. Daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses. Victory Day celebrations are a major focus. Meeting with foreign leaders. Statements on international relations. Corruption case reported. TASS reports the completion of a criminal case against a former senior Ministry of Emergency Situations official.TASS reports on the average social pension size.TASS reports on scammers using the theme of polyclinics to steal money through remote access applications.(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Iran-Russia Relations: Reuters sources report Iran is preparing to supply launch systems for Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. Reuters, via RBC-Ukraine, reports Iran is preparing to supply Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia.(Оперативный ЗСУ, Оперативный ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Russia-Uzbekistan Relations: Putin met with the President of Uzbekistan. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
US-China Relations: Donald Trump comments on potential for a fair trade deal. (ТАСС)
India-Pakistan Conflict: Escalation reported with alleged strikes and explosions. Pakistan announced a large-scale military operation and temporary airspace closure. Pakistan claims striking Indian airbases and a BrahMos missile storage depot. India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond.Pakistan shares video claiming Fateh-1 missile launch and impact on Indian military objects.(РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
European Leaders Visit to Kyiv: High-level European leaders are in Kyiv. French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz, British Prime Minister Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk are en route to Kyiv.(ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russia-US Relations: Russian Ambassador's statement on restoring relations. Former US President Trump's call for an end to the war. EU joined the US in calling for a ceasefire. TASS reports Peskov stated Russia hopes US mediation will help convince Kyiv to be more flexible.Donald Trump has publicly appealed to Zelenskyy and Putin to end the war.(ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is in Kyiv. Polish Prime Minister Tusk is en route to Kyiv.(РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Hungary-EU Relations: Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó's statement on delaying peace talks. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
European Parliament:Colonelcassad reports that a number of moderate European Parliamentarians are calling for dialogue with Russia due to the risk of nuclear war.(Colonelcassad)
North Korea-Russia Relations:Kim Jong Un has stated North Korea's participation in the "Russian-Ukrainian war" was justified, praised participants in the "Kursk operation," and warned the US against military provocations against Russia, stating North Korea would not hesitate to use military force.(РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security: Continued reports of security incidents. Firework display attributed to "partisans." Destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points claimed. Airspace closure. Scammer activity reported. TASS reports on scammers using the theme of polyclinics to steal money through remote access applications.(Previous reporting, Два майора, Два майора, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian claims of successful offensive operations and drone effectiveness. Military blogger reporting and fundraising. Use of tactical aviation and KABs. Potential Iranian missile supply. Military commemoration events and imagery. TASS reports the completion of a criminal case against a former senior Ministry of Emergency Situations official, which could have implications for the perception of internal processes within related structures.Launches of KABs towards Donetsk and Sumy were reported, indicating continued operational capability, but the threat has been cleared.Colonelcassad shares a video highlighting the work and technical capabilities of signal units of the 25th Army.There are currently no Russian missile carriers detected in the Black or Azov Seas, though one is in the Mediterranean.Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes from aviation in Kharkiv Oblast.India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond, suggesting potential for further military action by Indian forces against Pakistan.Reuters, via RBC-Ukraine, reports Iran is preparing to supply Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia.Pakistan shares video claiming Fateh-1 missile launch.(Previous reporting, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативный ЗСУ, Оперативный ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Civilian Casualties: Civilian casualties reported in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling. Alleged forced mobilization claimed by Russian sources. Alleged mistreatment of Russian POWs claimed by Russian sources. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Information Control and Censorship: Extensive information campaigning around Victory Day. Use of historical narratives and events for propaganda. Alleged negative information about Ukraine disseminated. Use of AI-generated content for propaganda. A large "DPR" flag was displayed in the center of Donetsk ahead of "Republic Day," an overt act of political symbolism.Two Majors shares a video of children performing a song linked to Victory Day, as part of information operations.(Previous reporting, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, Два майора, Два майора)
Military Commemoration and Information Operations: Victory Day celebrations and associated events are a major focus, including parades, memorials, and historical narratives. Use of military personnel in commemorative events. A large "DPR" flag was displayed in the center of Donetsk ahead of "Republic Day."Two Majors shares a video of children performing a song about a deceased Russian soldier and Victory Day, as part of information operations.(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, Два майора, Два майора)
Public Support for the Military: Fundraising efforts continue. Colonelcassad's video on signal units likely aims to bolster public perception and support for this branch of the military.Two Majors' video of children performing a song about a deceased soldier is an example of fostering public support.(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Два майора)
Corruption:TASS reports the completion of a criminal case regarding a large bribe against the former head of the Samara Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, General Oleg Boyko. This indicates ongoing efforts to address corruption within Russia. (ТАСС)
Social Welfare:TASS reports on the average social pension size in Russia.(ТАСС)
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Humanitarian Situation: Civilian casualties and damage reported. Alleged forced mobilization and mistreatment of POWs claimed by Russian sources. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Military Support: Fundraising efforts continue. Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces highlight significant support from the "Come Back Alive" foundation in providing weaponry, drones, and logistical equipment.(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України)
Cultural Support: Cultural events for military personnel. Monument restoration claimed. Two Majors shares a video of children performing a song about a deceased soldier.(Previous reporting, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Два майора, Два майора)
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russia: Continuing offensive operations with artillery, guided bombs, and drones. Engaging in border regions. Utilizing extensive information operations. Conducting shellings resulting in civilian casualties. Reports of advances. Airspace closure over test site suggests planned missile activity. Potential Iranian missile supply. Military commemoration and imagery. Engaged in military exchanges with India as reported by Pakistan. Launches of KABs towards Donetsk and Sumy were reported, indicating continued operational capability, but the threat has been cleared.Colonelcassad highlights the role and technical capabilities of signal units of the 25th Army.There are currently no Russian missile carriers detected in the Black or Azov Seas, though one is in the Mediterranean.Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes from aviation in Kharkiv Oblast.India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond, suggesting potential for further military action by Indian forces against Pakistan.DeepState reports Russian forces have advanced near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka.Reuters, via RBC-Ukraine, reports Iran is preparing to supply Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia.Pakistan shares video claiming Fateh-1 missile launch.(Previous reporting, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативный ЗСУ, Оперативный ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Ukraine: Continuing defensive and limited offensive operations. Utilizing drones. Seeking international support and aid. Countering Russian information operations. Experiencing shelling and civilian casualties. Concerns about Hungarian intelligence. Engaged in potential military exchanges with Pakistan as reported by India. Hosting European leaders. Alleged forced mobilization claimed by Russian sources. Calling for a ceasefire. Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces highlight significant support from a foundation, showcasing advanced weaponry and drone capabilities.High-level European leaders are en route to Kyiv.(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, Операция Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Pakistan: Engaged in escalating conflict with India. Announced a large-scale military operation and temporary airspace closure. Pakistan claims striking Indian airbases and a BrahMos missile storage depot. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry stated that their strikes on India are defensive, but India now states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond.Pakistan shares video claiming Fateh-1 missile launch and impact on Indian military objects.(ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
India: Engaged in escalating conflict with Pakistan. Previously halted flights at numerous airports. India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond.(РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
North Korea:Kim Jong Un has stated North Korea's participation in the "Russian-Ukrainian war" was justified, praised participants in the "Kursk operation," and warned the US against military provocations against Russia, stating North Korea would not hesitate to use military force.(РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The reported launches of KABs towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, followed by the clear of threat, indicate that Russian aerial activity with precision-guided munitions remains a tactic, albeit with potential fluctuations in intensity or targeting. The clear of threat suggests a temporary pause or completion of a specific strike wave. The claimed KAB strikes in Kharkiv Oblast underscore the continued use of these weapons in different operational areas.
Peskov's reiterated statements on the conditions for a ceasefire and his framing of Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate, along with expressing hope for US influence, reinforce Russia's consistent diplomatic stance and their likely approach to any future peace discussions. This suggests that Russia's terms for a truce remain the cessation of Western military aid to Ukraine. Donald Trump's general call to end the war adds another voice to international pressure for de-escalation, though its impact on the immediate situation is uncertain.
The reported completion of the criminal case against a former senior official in the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, while not directly related to the conflict, indicates that internal legal processes and efforts to address corruption are ongoing within Russia. This contributes to the broader picture of the internal Russian environment.
Information on the average social pension in Russia provides insight into the internal economic situation, which can indirectly affect public support and the government's capacity for sustained conflict.
The Russian military blogger's focus on signal units highlights the critical importance of communication and coordination in modern warfare and suggests an effort to emphasize the professionalism and capabilities of this branch within the Russian armed forces, potentially for recruitment and morale purposes.
Pakistan's statement that their strikes on India are defensive provides their official narrative regarding the escalation and could influence international perceptions and diplomatic responses to the India-Pakistan conflict. However, India's assertion of continued Pakistani escalation and intent to respond significantly raises the prospect of further military exchanges between these nuclear-armed nations, potentially creating a major geopolitical distraction and humanitarian concern.Pakistan showcasing the Fateh-1 missile system is an attempt to project military strength and deter further Indian action.
The absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas reduces the immediate direct naval missile threat to Ukraine from these crucial maritime areas. However, the continued presence of a Kalibr carrier in the Mediterranean maintains a potential long-range strike capability. The ongoing logistical movement through the Kerch Strait is noteworthy for monitoring Russian naval redeployments.
The display of a large "DPR" flag in Donetsk ahead of "Republic Day" is a clear information operation aimed at consolidating Russian control and promoting the legitimacy of the occupied territories. This aligns with Russia's broader efforts to integrate these regions.
DeepState's reporting of Russian advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka indicates continued localized Russian pressure and successful tactical movements in the Donetsk Oblast. This requires ongoing monitoring to assess the potential for larger operational or strategic gains.
Kim Jong Un's explicit statement of support for Russia's actions in Ukraine and praise for the "Kursk operation" signifies North Korea aligning itself with Russia's narrative and potentially opening the door for further tangible support, although the nature of this support beyond rhetorical remains to be seen. His warning to the US is also noteworthy in the broader geopolitical context.
The video of children performing a song about a deceased Russian soldier is a potent example of how Russia utilizes cultural elements and historical narratives to shape public opinion, particularly among the younger generation, and maintain support for the conflict.
The detailed account of support from the "Come Back Alive" foundation to the Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces highlights the crucial role of non-governmental organizations and public support in sustaining Ukraine's defense capabilities. The specific mention of modern weaponry, various drone systems, and logistical support underscores Ukraine's adaptation to modern warfare and reliance on technological solutions and citizen contributions. This also provides insight into the types of equipment currently being prioritized and deployed by Ukrainian forces.
The Reuters report on Iran preparing to supply Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia is a significant development. These missiles, with their 120 km range, could directly impact frontline areas and civilian centers near the border, potentially increasing the intensity and reach of Russian strikes. This further underscores the deepening military ties between Iran and Russia and necessitates adjustments in Ukrainian air defense and force posture in border regions.
The announced visit of high-level European leaders to Kyiv demonstrates continued strong political and diplomatic support for Ukraine from key Western partners. This visit likely serves as a show of solidarity, an opportunity for direct consultation on the conflict, and potentially discussions on further aid and strategic cooperation.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
