Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 10, 2025, 03:40 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational environment remains defined by ongoing ground combat and persistent Russian aerial activity. Renewed launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts were reported, but the threat for these regions has now been cleared. Russian information operations surrounding Victory Day are extensive, and diplomatic exchanges continue to highlight differing perspectives on conflict resolution. The significant escalation between India and Pakistan, with Pakistan's announcement of a large-scale military operation and continued airspace closures, remains a major regional development. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry has clarified that their strikes on India are defensive, but India now states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian forces will respond. Reports of a captured Ukrainian servicewoman and alleged mistreatment of Russian prisoners of war continue to be used for propaganda. An internal Russian issue concerning scamming activities has been reported. Recent messages reiterate Russian positions on negotiations and the role of the US in potential mediation. A completed corruption case against a former senior official in the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations has been detailed. New information includes data on the average social pension size in Russia and a Russian military blogger highlighting the role and capabilities of signal units. There is currently no detected presence of Russian missile carriers in the Black or Azov Seas, although a Kalibr carrier is reported in the Mediterranean.Donald Trump has publicly addressed both Zelenskyy and Putin, urging an end to the conflict. Russian sources are circulating images of KAB strikes in Kharkiv Oblast and a large flag display in occupied Donetsk. A large flag of the "DPR" was displayed in the center of Donetsk ahead of the "Republic Day".
The primary changes in the latest messages are:
Heightened India-Pakistan Tensions:India's statement that Pakistan is continuing escalation along their western borders and that Indian armed forces will respond indicates a significant and immediate increase in tensions and the likelihood of further military engagements between the two nations.(ТАСС)
No Russian Missile Carriers in Black and Azov Seas:The Ukrainian Navy reports, as of 06:00 on May 10th, there are no enemy ships, including Kalibr missile carriers, in either the Black or Azov Seas. This suggests a current absence of a direct naval missile threat from these areas. (РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kalibr Carrier in Mediterranean:The Ukrainian Navy reports the presence of 3 enemy ships in the Mediterranean Sea, with 1 being a Kalibr missile carrier with a total salvo capability of up to 8 missiles. This maintains a potential, albeit more distant, missile threat. (РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kerch Strait Traffic:Logistical movement through the Kerch Strait continues, with 7 vessels transiting to the Black Sea (4 towards the Bosporus) and 6 to the Azov Sea (5 reportedly towards the Bosporus).(РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Trump's Appeal to End War:Donald Trump has publicly appealed to both Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Russian President Putin to "finish this stupid war." This highlights international calls for de-escalation, although it is a general appeal without specific proposals. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Reported KAB Strikes in Kharkiv Oblast:Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes on Ukrainian troop locations in Kolodeznoye, Kharkiv Oblast. This indicates continued Russian use of guided aerial bombs in Kharkiv Oblast. (Colonelcassad)
DPR Flag Display in Donetsk:Russian state media reports and shares video of a 200-meter long "DPR" flag being displayed in the center of Donetsk ahead of "Republic Day" on May 11th. This is an overt act of political symbolism and likely part of ongoing Russian information operations to legitimize the occupied territories. (ТАСС)
Clear of Threat from KABs in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts:Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and РБК-Україна report the clear of threat regarding missile and aviation attacks for Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. This indicates a temporary cessation of the previously reported KAB launches towards these regions. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, РБК-Україна)
Pakistan's Statement on Defensive Strikes:TASS reports that the Pakistani Foreign Ministry explained that the strikes by the Armed Forces of Pakistan on India are defensive in nature. This provides Pakistan's official justification for their military actions against India. (ТАСС)
Completed Corruption Case Against Former Russian Official:TASS reports that the criminal case regarding a particularly large bribe against the former head of the Samara Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, General Oleg Boyko, has been completed and is being sent to court. This indicates ongoing efforts within Russia to address corruption, even at senior levels of government structures. (ТАСС)
Russian Reinforcement of Negotiation Stances:РБК-Україна, citing ABC News, reports that Dmitry Peskov reiterated that for a ceasefire, the West must stop supplying weapons to Ukraine.He also repeated the claims that Kyiv is allegedly trying to avoid negotiations and expressed hope that mediation, including from the US and Trump, will help bring "a little more flexibility, political will, and wisdom to the Kyiv regime." These messages reinforce Russia's consistent position on the conditions for a truce and their view on the obstacles to negotiations and the potential role of external actors. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Average Social Pension in Russia:TASS reports that the average size of social pensions in Russia as of April 1, 2025, was 15,520 rubles, an increase of 2,000 rubles over the year, according to the Social Fund. This provides data on Russian social welfare provisions. (ТАСС)
Russian Military Blogger on Signal Units:Colonelcassad shares a video highlighting the work of signal units of the 25th Army, emphasizing their crucial role in coordination, their technical expertise in satellite channels and digital systems, and their presence on the front lines and in the rear. This provides a Russian military blogger's perspective on the importance of signal units in modern warfare and likely serves as a morale-building effort and recruitment promotion. (Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk Direction, Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk, Romanivka, Oleksandropil, Nova Poltavka, Makeyevka, Orikhiv Direction, LPR/DPR Occupied Territories): Russian forces continue reporting advances. Launches of KABs were detected towards Donetsk Oblast, but the threat has been cleared. Colonelcassad shares videos and photos related to alleged atrocities and ongoing operations. Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny reports claims about Ukrainian psychological operations. Colonelcassad shares videos related to alleged mistreatment of Russian POWs and monument restoration. The threat from aerial attacks for Donetsk Oblast has been cleared.A large "DPR" flag was displayed in the center of Donetsk.(DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Sumy Oblast (Bunyakino, Sukhodol, Novovasilievka, Bachevsk): Civilian casualties reported due to Russian shelling. Rocket danger announced. Russian forces claim destruction of Ukrainian assets. New launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast were reported, but the threat has been cleared. The threat from aerial attacks for Sumy Oblast has been cleared.(Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна)
Chernihiv Oblast (Klyusy, Gorsk): Russian forces claim destruction of Ukrainian assets, including UAV control points. (Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Kursk Border Region (including Tetkino): Continued active engagement and reported Ukrainian attempts at incursions. Russian military bloggers report engagements and fundraising. (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Odesa Oblast (Reni): Firework display reported, attributed to "partisans" by Russian sources. (Два майора, Два майора)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Missile danger announced and cleared. Military personnel of the Russian "Vostok" grouping conducted an auto rally to congratulate civilians. Colonelcassad shares a video about monument restoration. (Previous reporting, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Kapustin Yar Test Site (Astrakhan and Volgograd/Saratov Oblasts, Russia): Airspace closure suggests planned missile testing or activity. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Rawalpindi, Pakistan: Powerful explosion reported, believed to be an Indian strike. Fire reported. Conflicting claims of interceptions. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Islamabad, Pakistan: Air defense systems actively working. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Amritsar, India: Four explosions reported. Pakistan claims five ballistic missiles hit. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Adampur, India: Pakistan claims one ballistic missile hit. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Rafiki Airbase (near Shorkot, Jang district, Pakistan): Pakistan claims interception of Indian cruise missiles. India claims strikes. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Murid Airbase, Pakistan: Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles. India claims strikes. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Shorkot Airbase, Pakistan: Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles and intercepted cruise missiles. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Kyiv: High-level European leaders are in Kyiv. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Moscow: Reports indicate the presence of foreign leaders for Victory Day. Commemorative events. Putin's meetings. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
New York (UN Headquarters): Russian Permanent Mission organized a commemorative event. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
India-Pakistan Border Region: Pakistan initiated a large-scale military operation and temporarily closed its airspace. Pakistan claims striking Indian airbases and a BrahMos missile storage depot. India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond.(ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, ТАСС)
Pathankot Airfield, India: Pakistan claims to have struck this airfield. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Udhampur Air Force Base, India: Pakistan claims to have struck this airbase. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Beas, India: Pakistan claims to have struck a BrahMos missile storage depot here. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA)
Kolodeznoye (Kharkiv Oblast):Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes on Ukrainian troop locations here.(Colonelcassad)
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity: Russian and Ukrainian drone activity continues. Claims of drone attacks and interceptions on both sides. Fundraising efforts for drones. (Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Repeated launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast and Donetsk Oblast were reported, but the threat has been cleared. The threat from aerial attacks for Donetsk and Sumy has been cleared.Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes on Ukrainian troop locations in Kolodeznoye, Kharkiv Oblast.(Previous reporting, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad)
Missile Activity: Missile danger announced in southern Ukraine. Airspace closed over Kapustin Yar test site. Reports of potential Iranian supply of missiles to Russia. India and Pakistan report exchanges involving ballistic and cruise missiles. The Ukrainian Navy reports one Kalibr carrier with 8 missiles in the Mediterranean Sea.(Previous reporting, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативний ЗСУ, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Aviation Activity: Activity of enemy tactical aviation reported on southeastern and northeastern directions. Potential Indian air strike on a Pakistani Air Force Base. Pakistan claims India launched "air-to-ground" missiles. India claims strikes on Pakistani airbases. Pakistan has announced the temporary closure of its airspace. Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes from aviation in Kharkiv Oblast.(Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, Colonelcassad)
Naval Activity: No new specific naval engagements reported. Ukrainian maritime drone operations suggested. The Ukrainian Navy reports zero Russian naval vessels or Kalibr missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas as of 06:00 on May 10th, but one Kalibr carrier with 8 missiles in the Mediterranean. Logistical movement through the Kerch Strait continues.(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Air Defense Activity: Air defense systems active over Islamabad, Pakistan. Pakistan claims interceptions. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Victory Day Narratives: Extensive Russian information operations around Victory Day continue, emphasizing historical narratives and linking them to the ongoing conflict. Celebratory events are reported. Foreign leaders are in Moscow for celebrations. Russian officials are making statements related to the holiday. A large "DPR" flag was displayed in the center of Donetsk ahead of "Republic Day."(Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС)
International Efforts for Peace: Discussions regarding a 30-day ceasefire proposal continue. Different perspectives on negotiations and the role of mediators are highlighted. TASS reports Peskov stated that Ukraine wants to avoid negotiations.TASS reports Peskov stated that a temporary truce must include a cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine.TASS reports Peskov stated Russia hopes US mediation will help convince Kyiv to be more flexible.Colonelcassad reports European Parliamentarians are calling for dialogue with Russia due to the risk of nuclear war.РБК-Україна, citing ABC News, reports Peskov reiterated that for a ceasefire, the West must stop supplying weapons to Ukraine and repeated claims of Kyiv avoiding negotiations and the potential role of US/Trump mediation.Donald Trump has publicly appealed to Zelenskyy and Putin to end the war.(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russia-Brazil Relations: The topic of Ukraine was raised during Putin's meeting with Brazilian President Lula da Silva. (Previous reporting)
Russia-Slovakia Relations: Putin valued Slovak Prime Prime Minister Fico's attendance at Victory Day celebrations, and Fico's stance on sanctions and energy supplies were highlighted. (Previous reporting, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Internal Ukrainian Politics: Bail posted for a former official. Discussion of EU accession timeline. Concerns raised about Hungarian intelligence activities. Alleged forced mobilization claimed by Russian sources. Captured Ukrainian servicewoman used for propaganda. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Internal Russian Politics: Comments on a ceasefire. Daily figures on claimed Ukrainian losses. Victory Day celebrations are a major focus. Meeting with foreign leaders. Statements on international relations. Corruption case reported. TASS reports the completion of a criminal case against a former senior Ministry of Emergency Situations official.TASS reports on the average social pension size.(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Iran-Russia Relations: Reuters sources report Iran is preparing to supply launch systems for Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. (Оперативный ЗСУ, Оперативный ЗСУ)
Russia-Uzbekistan Relations: Putin met with the President of Uzbekistan. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
US-China Relations: Donald Trump comments on potential for a fair trade deal. (ТАСС)
India-Pakistan Conflict: Escalation reported with alleged strikes and explosions. Pakistan announced a large-scale military operation and temporary airspace closure. Pakistan claims striking Indian airbases and a BrahMos missile storage depot. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry stated that their strikes on India are defensive, but India now states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond.(РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, ТАСС)
European Leaders Visit to Kyiv: High-level European leaders are in Kyiv. (ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Russia-US Relations: Russian Ambassador's statement on restoring relations. Former US President Trump's call for an end to the war. EU joined the US in calling for a ceasefire. TASS reports Peskov stated Russia hopes US mediation will help convince Kyiv to be more flexible.Donald Trump has publicly appealed to Zelenskyy and Putin to end the war.(ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Poland-Ukraine Relations: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is in Kyiv. (РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Hungary-EU Relations: Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó's statement on delaying peace talks. (ТАСС, ТАСС)
European Parliament:Colonelcassad reports that a number of moderate European Parliamentarians are calling for dialogue with Russia due to the risk of nuclear war.(Colonelcassad)
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Internal Security: Continued reports of security incidents. Firework display attributed to "partisans." Destruction of Ukrainian UAV control points claimed. Airspace closure. Scammer activity reported. TASS reports on scammers using the theme of polyclinics to steal money through remote access applications.(Previous reporting, Два майора, Два майора, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС)
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian claims of successful offensive operations and drone effectiveness. Military blogger reporting and fundraising. Use of tactical aviation and KABs. Potential Iranian missile supply. Military commemoration events and imagery. TASS reports the completion of a criminal case against a former senior Ministry of Emergency Situations official, which could have implications for the perception of internal processes within related structures.Launches of KABs towards Donetsk and Sumy were reported, indicating continued operational capability, but the threat has been cleared.Colonelcassad shares a video highlighting the work and technical capabilities of signal units of the 25th Army.(Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативный ЗСУ, Оперативный ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Civilian Casualties: Civilian casualties reported in Sumy Oblast due to Russian shelling. Alleged forced mobilization claimed by Russian sources. Alleged mistreatment of Russian POWs claimed by Russian sources. (Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Information Control and Censorship: Extensive information campaigning around Victory Day. Use of historical narratives and events for propaganda. Alleged negative information about Ukraine disseminated. Use of AI-generated content for propaganda. A large "DPR" flag was displayed in the center of Donetsk ahead of "Republic Day," an overt act of political symbolism.(Previous reporting, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Military Commemoration and Information Operations: Victory Day celebrations and associated events are a major focus, including parades, memorials, and historical narratives. Use of military personnel in commemorative events. A large "DPR" flag was displayed in the center of Donetsk ahead of "Republic Day."(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ТАСС)
Public Support for the Military: Fundraising efforts and cultural events indicate continued public support. Colonelcassad's video on signal units likely aims to bolster public perception and support for this branch of the military.(Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Kadyrov_95, Kadyrov_95, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Corruption:TASS reports the completion of a criminal case regarding a large bribe against the former head of the Samara Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, General Oleg Boyko. This indicates ongoing efforts to address corruption within Russia. (ТАСС)
Social Welfare:TASS reports on the average social pension size in Russia.(ТАСС)
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Humanitarian Situation: Civilian casualties and damage reported. Alleged forced mobilization and mistreatment of POWs claimed by Russian sources. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Cultural Support: Cultural events for military personnel. Monument restoration claimed. (Previous reporting, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russia: Continuing offensive operations with artillery, guided bombs, and drones. Engaging in border regions. Utilizing extensive information operations. Conducting shellings resulting in civilian casualties. Reports of advances. Airspace closure over test site suggests planned missile activity. Potential Iranian missile supply. Military commemoration and imagery. Engaged in military exchanges with India as reported by Pakistan. Launches of KABs towards Donetsk and Sumy were reported, indicating continued operational capability, but the threat has been cleared.Colonelcassad highlights the role and technical capabilities of signal units of the 25th Army.There are currently no Russian missile carriers detected in the Black or Azov Seas, though one is in the Mediterranean.Russian sources share footage claiming to show KAB strikes from aviation in Kharkiv Oblast.India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond, suggesting potential for further military action by Indian forces against Pakistan.(Previous reporting, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, DeepState, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, Оперативный ЗСУ, Оперативный ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], РБК-Україна, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС)
Ukraine: Continuing defensive and limited offensive operations. Utilizing drones. Seeking international support and aid. Countering Russian information operations. Experiencing shelling and civilian casualties. Concerns about Hungarian intelligence. Engaged in potential military exchanges with Pakistan as reported by India. Hosting European leaders. Alleged forced mobilization claimed by Russian sources. Calling for a ceasefire. (Previous reporting, Previous reporting, Previous reporting, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Pakistan: Engaged in escalating conflict with India. Announced a large-scale military operation and temporary airspace closure. Claims striking Indian airbases and a BrahMos missile storage depot. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry stated that their strikes on India are defensive, but India now states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond.(ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, ТАСС)
India: Engaged in escalating conflict with Pakistan. Previously halted flights at numerous airports. India states Pakistan is continuing escalation and Indian armed forces will respond.(РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ТАСС)
Strategic Considerations (Updated)
The reported launches of KABs towards Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts, followed by the clear of threat, indicate that Russian aerial activity with precision-guided munitions remains a tactic, albeit with potential fluctuations in intensity or targeting. The clear of threat suggests a temporary pause or completion of a specific strike wave. The claimed KAB strikes in Kharkiv Oblast underscore the continued use of these weapons in different operational areas.
Peskov's reiterated statements on the conditions for a ceasefire and his framing of Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate, along with expressing hope for US influence, reinforce Russia's consistent diplomatic stance and their likely approach to any future peace discussions. This suggests that Russia's terms for a truce remain the cessation of Western military aid to Ukraine. Donald Trump's general call to end the war adds another voice to international pressure for de-escalation, though its impact on the immediate situation is uncertain.
The reported completion of the criminal case against a former senior official in the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, while not directly related to the conflict, indicates that internal legal processes and efforts to address corruption are ongoing within Russia. This contributes to the broader picture of the internal Russian environment.
Information on the average social pension in Russia provides insight into the internal economic situation, which can indirectly affect public support and the government's capacity for sustained conflict.
The Russian military blogger's focus on signal units highlights the critical importance of communication and coordination in modern warfare and suggests an effort to emphasize the professionalism and capabilities of this branch within the Russian armed forces, potentially for recruitment and morale purposes.
Pakistan's statement that their strikes on India are defensive provides their official narrative regarding the escalation and could influence international perceptions and diplomatic responses to the India-Pakistan conflict. However, India's assertion of continued Pakistani escalation and intent to respond significantly raises the prospect of further military exchanges between these nuclear-armed nations, potentially creating a major geopolitical distraction and humanitarian concern.
The absence of Russian missile carriers in the Black and Azov Seas reduces the immediate direct naval missile threat to Ukraine from these crucial maritime areas. However, the continued presence of a Kalibr carrier in the Mediterranean maintains a potential long-range strike capability. The ongoing logistical movement through the Kerch Strait is noteworthy for monitoring Russian naval redeployments.
The display of a large "DPR" flag in Donetsk ahead of "Republic Day" is a clear information operation aimed at consolidating Russian control and promoting the legitimacy of the occupied territories. This aligns with Russia's broader efforts to integrate these regions.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
