Sitrep 2025-05-09 16:41:14

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 16:40 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to feature intense ground combat across multiple sectors, including Kharkiv, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and the Dnipro River direction. The Russian declaration of a "festive ceasefire" for Victory Day continues to be demonstrably violated by both sides. The Kursk border area remains highly active, with Ukrainian attempts to breach Russian defenses reported, and Russian forces claiming to be repelling these efforts and destroying Ukrainian equipment. Russian tactical aviation remains active, launching guided aerial bombs, particularly targeting Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian drone attacks continue, with claims of effectiveness against Russian logistics and equipment. Civilian casualties remain a tragic consequence of the ongoing conflict. Russia has officially launched its digital conscription system (Reestr povestok) nationwide. A notable internal Russian issue is the reported suspension of a criminal case against a deputy police chief accused of torture who signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense and went to the front.

Diplomatic and information operations remain significant. EU support for Ukraine's defense capabilities is being bolstered by the allocation of profits from frozen Russian assets for arms procurement. Discussions regarding a special tribunal for the crime of aggression continue to progress, with leaders of 35 countries signing a declaration in Lviv. Washington has unofficially indicated no objection to collecting evidence for a special tribunal. Ukraine's Prime Minister stated that 40 countries have united to create a special tribunal within the framework of the Council of Europe. Russia is heavily emphasizing Victory Day for propaganda purposes, linking the current conflict to historical narratives of victory over Nazism and showcasing military parades and commemorative events across the country, including internationally at their military bases and in occupied Ukrainian territories. Allegations of North Korean participation in operations in Kursk Oblast are being promoted by Russian sources, with claims of planned monuments and street names to honor them, and North Korea has launched tactical missiles from its KN-23 MLRS systems. Diplomatic engagements surrounding Victory Day include the presence of foreign leaders in Moscow, with Russian state media emphasizing their attendance as a failure of Western isolation efforts. Ukraine is taking action against individuals under sanctions by blocking their YouTube channels. Ukrainian diaspora is conducting counter-propaganda actions in Europe and America titled "Mortal Regiment" to highlight Russian war crimes. The newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has expressed hope for a 30-day ceasefire agreement to be reached this weekend, based on a proposal shared with Russia by the US, UK, France, and Poland; however, a clarification indicates he meant the "ball is in Moscow's court" regarding the potential for a longer ceasefire. Discussions regarding the resumption of Russian gas supplies to Europe are reportedly taking place between Russia and the US. Public display of a statue of Putin as a phallic organ in Warsaw highlights continued public opposition to Russia in some European countries. Ukraine is highlighting its successful use of naval drones in blocking the Russian Black Sea Fleet near Novorossiysk. Ukrainian military units, such as the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, are actively promoting contract military service. Macron has confirmed participation in a hybrid meeting of the "coalition of the resolute" on May 10th in Ukraine. The US and Europeans are reportedly finalizing a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, with refusal potentially leading to new sanctions against Russia. Ukraine is expelling two Hungarian diplomats in response to actions by Hungary. A Russian source reports that Ukrainian authorities will require Russian prisoners of war to pay personal income tax and military tax as non-residents. Colonelcassad shares Russian claims of advances on the Krasnolimansky, Torsky, Verkhnekamensky, and Grigorievka directions. DeepState discusses Russian approaches to the administrative borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the contested areas in Donetsk Oblast, noting the focus on proximity to the Donetsk border rather than the Dnipropetrovsk border. A Russian military blogger shares OSINT analysis on the historical and modern use of technology and terrain. A Russian military blogger shares historical commentary on Ilya Ehrenburg's writings and poems related to WWII.

Key updates and analysis from the latest messages:

Criminal Case Suspended for Police Deputy Chief Joining Military: ASTRA reports that the criminal case against the deputy police chief of Ukhta, accused of torture, has been suspended because he signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense and went to the war. This highlights potential issues within the Russian military and justice system regarding individuals facing criminal charges joining military service to potentially avoid prosecution.
Story of Semen Pegov's Grandfather and Donetsk Militia: WarGonzo shares an anecdote about the grandfather of their military correspondent Semen Pegov, who reportedly wanted to join the Donetsk militia in 2015 after visiting Donetsk, but was not accepted due to his age. This serves as a propaganda piece connecting the current conflict to historical narratives of patriotic volunteerism and the perception of war by older generations.
Macron Confirms Participation in "Coalition of the Resolute" Meeting: RBC-Ukraine reports that French President Macron has confirmed his participation in a hybrid meeting of the "coalition of the resolute" on May 10th in Ukraine, with some leaders attending in person and others online for security reasons. This indicates continued high-level international support for Ukraine and strategic discussions among key partners.
Russian Military Personnel Congratulate on Victory Day: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of Russian military personnel from the Kherson direction congratulating on the 80th anniversary of Victory Day, emphasizing their role as heirs of the victors and the importance of preserving what their ancestors defended. This is a direct propaganda message from the front lines aimed at connecting current military actions to the historical victory and boosting morale.
FPV Drone Attack Shared by "Archangel Spetsnaz": АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video with the caption "Continuing to send congratulations on Victory Day to opponents!", showing an FPV drone attack. This suggests continued drone activity and highlights the use of Victory Day as a theme in information warfare.
Russian POWs to Pay Taxes in Ukraine: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны reports that, according to a Ukrainian government representative, Russian prisoners of war in Ukraine will be required to pay personal income tax and military tax as non-residents. Tax agents (POW camps, correctional facilities) will be responsible for calculating, withholding, and reporting these taxes. This is an administrative and potentially legal development regarding the treatment of POWs.
FPV Drone Strikes on Russian Communication Systems: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video showcasing the work of FPV drones from the 12th Brigade "Azov" targeting Russian communication systems, relay stations, and an "Orlan" UAV launch site. The caption emphasizes the importance of disrupting enemy communications and reconnaissance, even if these hits are less visually dramatic than strikes on personnel or vehicles. This highlights Ukrainian tactical focus on degrading Russian command and control and drone capabilities.
Russian Claims of Advances on Krasnolimansky Direction: Colonelcassad shares maps and commentary claiming Russian advances on the Krasnolimansky direction, including areas near Torsky, Verkhnekamensky, and Grigorievka. This indicates continued Russian offensive pressure on this front.
Unofficial US/EU Stance on Special Tribunal Evidence Collection: Оперативний ЗСУ and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS report that Washington has unofficially signaled no objection to the collection of evidence for a special tribunal against the "Putin regime." This is presented as a cautious but noticeable concession by the US and indicates progress in international efforts towards accountability for alleged Russian crimes.
Russian State Media Promotes Victory Day Concert: Два майора promotes an exclusive online broadcast of a "Songs of Victory" concert from Volgograd, featuring popular Russian musical groups and highlighting audio-visual installations on the "Motherland Calls!" monument. This is a clear information operation leveraging cultural events and historical symbols for patriotic messaging and celebrating Victory Day.
Russian Governor Shares "Immortal Regiment" Video: AV БогомаZ, the Governor of Bryansk Oblast, shares a video of the "Immortal Regiment" online action, emphasizing the heroism of ancestors and the importance of preserving their memory. This is part of the widespread Russian commemoration of Victory Day.
Ukrainian Prime Minister on Special Tribunal: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS reports that Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that 40 countries have united to create a special tribunal for the crime of aggression within the framework of the Council of Europe, with the main task being to investigate, prosecute, and try those primarily responsible. This reiterates Ukraine's focus on establishing legal accountability for Russian actions.
DeepState Analysis on Russian Approach to Dnipropetrovsk Border: ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 provides an analysis of the discussions around Russian forces approaching the administrative borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. They argue that the focus should be on the proximity to the edge of Donetsk Oblast (specifically areas like Удачне, Новопіль, Троїцьке, Преображенка, and Котлярівка) rather than the Dnipropetrovsk border itself, noting that in areas like Удачне and Новопіль, Ukrainian forces have held the line despite close Russian approaches. This analysis provides a nuanced perspective on Russian offensive directions and the strategic importance of specific locations within Donetsk Oblast.
Russian Military Blogger on OSINT and Historical Analysis: Воин DV shares commentary on the use of modern OSINT methods and technologies, including satellite imagery, drone data, and social media, for both military analysis in the current conflict and historical study of events like the Battle of Kursk. This highlights the evolving nature of intelligence gathering and its application.
Russian Military Blogger on Ilya Ehrenburg and WWII: Kotsnews shares historical commentary on the Soviet writer and journalist Ilya Ehrenburg, focusing on his influential WWII article "Kill!" and his poems about Victory. This is part of the broader Russian historical narrative surrounding WWII and its relevance to the present.
Summary of Significant Recent Events: RBC-Ukraine provides a concise summary of recent key events, including the EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Lviv and their support for a special tribunal, Chinese President Xi Jinping's call for a "just" peace agreement (with a nuanced interpretation by Russia suggesting it implies Ukraine making concessions), German Chancellor Merz's hope for a ceasefire, the EU foreign policy chief's criticism of the Slovak Prime Minister's participation in the Moscow parade, SBU uncovering alleged Hungarian espionage in Zakarpattia and the reciprocal expulsion of diplomats, YouTube blocking channels of sanctioned individuals, "Nova Poshta" closing a branch in Kostyantynivka, the depreciation of the Hryvnia, the new Pope, UK sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet," the India-Pakistan border escalation, and Finland's proposal for tariffs on Russian imports.
US/EU Finalizing 30-Day Ceasefire Proposal: Оперативний ЗСУ and Reuters report that the US and European countries are finalizing a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, with a refusal potentially leading to joint imposition of new sanctions against Russia. The proposal is still being finalized. This indicates ongoing international diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire, though the conditions and likelihood of acceptance remain unclear.
Ukraine Expels Hungarian Diplomats: RBC-Ukraine reports that Ukraine is expelling two Hungarian diplomats within 48 hours in response to actions by Hungary, based on the principle of reciprocity and national interests. This signifies a diplomatic escalation between Ukraine and Hungary.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Kharkiv, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk, Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kurakhove, Donetsk-Yasynuvata, Mariupol, Bogatyr, Grygorivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Orekhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Pisky, Krasnolimansky, Torsky, Verkhnekamensky, Kotlyarivka, Troitskoye, Preobrazhenka, Novoalexandrovka, Удачне, Новопіль): Intense ground combat continues across numerous sectors. Russian MoD claims the liberation of Troitskoye and continued advancements. Ukrainian General Staff reports 117 total combat engagements across all fronts today, with the most on the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Lyman directions. Russian military bloggers claim Russian forces raised the flag in Novoolexandrivka. Fighting reported near Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk. Civilian casualties reported in Horlivka and Kurakhove. Russian forces are reportedly active on the Pokrovsk direction using BBM. Russian media disseminating information about Russian sappers conducting demining operations in "liberated territories." Воин DV reports claimed Russian successes in suppressing Ukrainian forces and destroying equipment and personnel. Military personnel of the Russian "Vostok" grouping conducted an auto rally to congratulate civilians in the DPR on Victory Day. Ceremonies were held in Mariupol at the monument to fallen marines. Russian forces have reportedly advanced over 1 km in residential areas on the eastern street of Bogatyr (Kurakhovo direction). Russian units are claiming advances near Grygorivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, and Orekhovo-Vasylivka. Russian strikes with guided aerial bombs on residential buildings in Kostyantynivka have been confirmed. Russian paratroopers reportedly used a drone with banners over Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces are claiming advancement near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. Colonelcassad claims significant Russian successes on the Pokrovsk direction, including the liberation of Pisky and expanding control around Novooleksandrivka. Russian claims of changes in the situation in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) and Leonidivka. Russian sources claim significant advances on the Southern Donetsk direction, including areas around Богатырь, Отрадное, Комар, Зеленое Поле, and Новополь, with over 2.5 km covered in some areas. Electricity has been cut off in Sloviansk following night strikes, likely due to a substation hit. Ukrainian SOF reportedly captured 6 Russian soldiers from the 34th Brigade. Colonelcassad shares Russian claims of advances on the Krasnolimansky, Torsky, Verkhnekamensky, and Grigorievka directions. DeepState discusses Russian approaches to the administrative borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the contested areas in Donetsk Oblast, noting the focus on proximity to the Donetsk border rather than the Dnipropetrovsk border, specifically mentioning Удачне, Новопіль, Троїцьке, Преображенка, and Котлярівка as areas of current or past Russian approaches. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of FPV drone strikes on Russian communication systems near the front lines.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Tetkino, Novy Put', Glushkovo, Sudzha, Ryzhivka, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Popovo-Lezhachi): Renewed reports of intense fighting. Russian military bloggers claim Ukrainian forces continue attempts to break through near Tetkino and Novy Put', facing heavy fire and suffering equipment losses. WarGonzo reports Russian fighters near Tetkino are in a near-encirclement situation. Military Correspondent Kotenok reports a Ukrainian missile strike on Glushkovo overnight, resulting in a civilian fatality. Ukrainian forces reportedly targeted a temple near Tetkino. Ukrainian award of "Hero of Ukraine" to Colonel Pavlo Rozlach linked to successful offensive actions here. The Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling 7 Russian attacks on the Kursk direction today (previous). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a brief message alleging significant North Korean military losses here. Russian sources promoting claims of planning streets and monuments in honor of North Korean military personnel. Russian military bloggers claim continued destruction of Ukrainian forces in Tetkino using FAB aviation bombs.
Sumy Oblast (Ryzhivka, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Starikove, Maryine, Myropilske, Novodmytrivka, Petrushivka, Середина Буда, Нововасильевка, Хутор Михайловский, Толстодубово, Василевское, Nova Sloboda, Brusky): Border settlements are suffering from cynical shelling. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs towards areas of Nova Sloboda, Brusky, and Boyaro-Lezhachi. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs towards the region. Russian sources claim Ukrainian aviation operated over Sumy Oblast during a missile strike on Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of Ukrainian strongholds here. Ukrainian forces reportedly used mortar shelling from the direction of Ryzhivka and Boyaro-Lezhachi during an attack near Tetkino. The Ukrainian Air Force has reported the lifting of a missile threat alert for Sumy Oblast.
Kharkiv Oblast (Velykyi Burluk, Kupiansk, Synelnykove, Zapsillya, Редкодуб, Паламаревка, Lozova, Зарічне, Старосалтівська громада, Bereznyky, Lyptsi): The Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling two Russian attacks here. Russian MoD claims losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces here. Russian sources claim a strike on a Ukrainian UAV command point and the destruction of equipment. A Ukrainian source reports a Russian FPV drone attack on a communal service vehicle. An 11-year-old boy was injured by an explosive device. Reports of corruption within the Lozivskyi TCC highlight internal issues. The 120th Separate Territorial Defense Battalion and volunteers are training with ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns. Colonelcassad shares video claiming to show Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian assault group attempting to break through into Belgorod Oblast from Bereznyky. Ukrainian forces have liberated a forest area near Lyptsi, inflicting over 1500 enemy casualties and destroying equipment.
Kyiv Oblast (Sofiivska Borshchahivka): Reports of a shooting incident with multiple fatalities. The individual responsible has been apprehended. Russian sources provide further details confirming the death of a Ukrainian serviceman and his mother-in-law in Sofiivska Borshchahivka, stating the incident stemmed from a dispute over payment for a weapon.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Темировка, Новоданиловка, Павловка, Каменское, Stepove, Shcherbaky, Gulyaipole, Malaya Tokmachka, Temirovka, Olgovskoye, Pokrovsk community of the Synelnykivskyi district): Russian MoD claims losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces here. The Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling three Russian assaults on the Orikhiv direction and no active Russian offensive actions on the Huliaipole direction. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides clarifications on mobilization and reports on a meeting focused on preparing communities for the return of veterans and their support. Confirmed civilian fatality and 8 injured due to a Russian KAB strike in the Pokrovsk community of the Synelnykivskyi district. Russian forces conducting strikes and drone activity. Russian claims of destroying enemy equipment and personnel and striking energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia city. Ukrainian forces continue counterattacks in the areas of Stepove and Shcherbaky. Intense drone and artillery activity. Russian claims of successfully striking enemy targets and using drones. A substation was damaged by a recent drone attack, affecting over 20,000 customers, but power was restored quickly. Energy resilience efforts are underway, including building new generation capacity. Military personnel of the Russian "Vostok" grouping conducted an auto rally to congratulate civilians here on Victory Day. Occupied Melitopol saw the opening of a statue of Stalin.
Bryansk Oblast (Russia) (including Sluchevsk): Russian claims of 66 strikes by Ukrainian forces on border settlements over the past day. Russian claims of Ukrainian drone attack resulting in a civilian fatality in Sluchevsk.
Saransk (Mordovia, Russia): Ukrainian strike on the fiber optic systems plant, reportedly causing serious damage. Ukrainian sources highlight the strategic significance.
Moscow (Russia) (including Kubinka airbase, Novy Gorodok): Major explosion and fire in a residential building with casualties. Ukrainian drone attack on Kubinka airbase nearby reported. Military aviation activity over Moscow as part of Victory Parade preparations. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destroying two Ukrainian UAVs over the Moscow region. ASTRA reports detention of a picketer with an anti-war poster. Arrival of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić for Victory Day celebrations. TASS is broadcasting live coverage of the Victory Day parade and fireworks. President Putin's meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Fico is highlighted.
Crimea: Heightened security and military activity due to perceived threats. Russian naval special forces deployed to coastal positions. Ukrainian source mocks a Russian Black Sea Fleet parade.
Kleban-Byk: Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian M113 BTR with a Lancet drone.
Shaikovka Airbase (Kaluga Oblast, Russia): Satellite imagery reportedly shows two fires on the airbase after a Ukrainian strike. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destroying seven Ukrainian UAVs over Kaluga Oblast.
Tula Oblast: Russian Ministry of Defense claims destroying four Ukrainian UAVs over this region.
Minsk (Belarus): General rehearsal for the military parade commemorating Victory in the Great Patriotic War.
St. Petersburg (Russia): Temporary suspension of shopping center operations on May 9th for security.
Chuvashia (Russia): Transport restrictions and potential mobile internet restrictions on May 9th for security.
Cherkasy and Smela (Cherkasy Oblast): Russian strikes using Geran/Gerbera drones reported. Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs.
Chernihiv and Chernihiv Oblast: Russian strikes using Geran/Gerbera drones reported.
Zhytomyr and Zhytomyr Oblast: Russian strikes using Geran/Gerbera drones reported.
Donbas (including Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk, Dobropillya, Slovyansk): Russian strikes using UMPK and Geran/Gerbera drones reported. Electricity has been cut off in Sloviansk following night strikes, likely due to a substation hit.
Konotop (Sumy Oblast): Russian strikes using Iskander-M reported.
Uman area: Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs.
Kremenchuk area: Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs.
Pereyaslav area: Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs.
Yemen (Sana'a): Israeli strikes reported, damaging the airport. Reports about Houthis ceasing attacks (not independently confirmed). Военкор Котенок reports a Houthi missile launched at Israel was shot down near Jerusalem. Resources related to the "Ansar Allah" movement claim their strike was on Ben-Gurion airport and that the THAAD system failed.
Lviv (Ukraine): 35 countries signed a declaration on the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine here.
Kaliningrad (Russia): A military parade took place here.
Warsaw (Poland): Public display of a statue of Putin as a phallic organ occurred here.
Rivne Oblast: State ownership of Rivne Automobile Repair Plant returned.
Zakarpattia Oblast (Khustskyi Raion, Mizhhir'ya village): Police detained a UOC (MP) priest and another individual for displaying Soviet symbols.
Spain: Spanish activists are reportedly finding and restoring monuments to Soviet soldiers and Spanish anti-fascists.
Krasnodar Krai (Russia): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a Victory Day car rally here.
Biysk (Altai Krai, Russia): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing Reuters, reports on the near completion of a large explosives production plant at the "Biysk Oleum Plant" here.
Novorossiysk (Russia): Ukraine claims to have blocked the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the waters near this port using naval drones.
Grygorivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian units are claiming advances near here. Colonelcassad shares Russian claims of advances near Grigorievka.
Dubovo-Vasylivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian units are claiming advances near here.
Orekhovo-Vasylivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian units are claiming advances near here.
Left Bank of Dnipro River (Kherson Oblast): Ukrainian Defense Forces removed a Russian tricolor flag here.
Ogre (Latvia): Exhibit featuring alleged uniforms of killed Russian soldiers reported.
Ukhata (Komi Republic, Russia): Location where a criminal case against a police deputy chief was suspended due to his military service.
Moldova: Ministry of Internal Affairs reportedly stated that wearing symbols that "promote war," such as the St. George ribbon, is an administrative offense punishable by fines.
Kazakhstan (Astana): Military parade for Victory Day held here for the first time in 8 years.
Hungary: Ukraine is expelling two Hungarian diplomats in response to actions by Hungary.
Uzbekistan (Moscow): Liquidation of the "Uzbek National-Cultural Autonomy" of Moscow by court.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Increased and widespread Russian drone activity reported across multiple oblasts (Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Bryansk, Kursk, Sumy, Moscow, Kaluga, Tula, Dnipropetrovsk). Ukrainian General Staff reports 145 kamikaze drones used by Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction alone. Continued Russian drone activity observed over Kyiv. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destruction of Ukrainian artillery and vehicles using Molniya UAVs and FPV drones. Ukrainian drone attack confirmed on a fiber optic systems plant in Saransk. Ukrainian unit requesting a ground drone for operations near Dvorichna. Potential cellular and internet restrictions in Tver and Chuvashia Oblasts due to drone threat. Temporary airport restrictions in Tambov due to a "Kovyor" plan. Ukrainian drone attack on Kubinka airbase near Moscow reported. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian mortar crew and M113 BTR with Lancet drones. Russian claims of destroying 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Kaluga, Tula, and Moscow regions. Russian claims of Ukrainian drone attack resulting in a civilian fatality in Bryansk Oblast. Oleh Vilkul reports three Russian UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs over various locations. Russian Ministry of Defense reports destroying a Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone in the Orekhov direction and an AFU field artillery gun near Gulyaipole using FPV drones. Ukrainian video from the 3rd Assault Brigade showcases successful drone strikes against Russian vehicles and personnel. Ukrainian source reports a Russian soldier self-denazified (committed suicide) to avoid a second drone drop. "Підрозділ Shadow," STERNENKO (citing "Apachi" FPV pilots of the 4th Mechanized Battalion), and Президентська бригада ЗСУ (citing the 4th Mechanized Battalion) share videos highlighting the work of strike drone operators. A substation was damaged by a recent drone attack. Russian forces attacked Nikopol district with FPV drones. Ukrainian drone successfully targeted a Russian vehicle transporting ammunition near the front lines. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces used a drone to destroy a Russian dugout and house where enemy FPV operators were located. Russian paratroopers reportedly used a drone to fly over Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar with propaganda banners. Ukrainian drone attack reportedly targeted a Russian tank rushing to the parade. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of FPV drone strikes on Russian communication systems, relay stations, and an "Orlan" UAV launch site. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video showing an FPV drone attack, linked to Victory Day messaging.
Ballistic Missile Activity: Ballistic missile strike on the suburbs of Sumy resulting in multiple fatalities and injuries, including children. Russian strikes using Iskander-M reported in Kyiv, Konotop, Dnipropetrovsk, and Synelnykove area. Военкор Котенок reports a Houthi missile launched at Israel was shot down near Jerusalem. North Korea has launched tactical missiles from its KN-23 MLRS systems. Resources related to the "Ansar Allah" movement claim their strike was on Ben-Gurion airport and that the THAAD system failed.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian forces utilized 7 KABs in 3 aerial strikes in the Kharkiv direction. Confirmed civilian fatality and 8 injured due to a Russian KAB strike in the Pokrovsk community of the Synelnykivskyi district. Russian strikes using UMPK (likely KABs) reported in Sumy, Donbas, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. Russian strikes with guided aerial bombs on residential buildings in Kostyantynivka have been confirmed. Russian military bloggers claim continued destruction of Ukrainian forces in Tetkino using FAB aviation bombs.
Tactical Aviation: Active in the Kharkiv direction, conducting aerial strikes. Russian military aviation activity over Moscow as part of Victory Parade preparations. Russian aviation reportedly involved in strikes across Ukraine. Russian tactical aviation remains active on the northeastern direction, launching guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. Fighterbomber shares a video with aviation footage. Russian military bloggers claim continued destruction of Ukrainian forces in Tetkino using FAB aviation bombs.
Naval Situation: Trump's statement regarding the US ceasing strikes on Houthis is a significant development in the Red Sea, although not independently confirmed. Israeli strikes on Sana'a airport in Yemen suggest continued regional military activity. Russian naval special forces deployed to coastal positions in Crimea. Ukrainian source mocks a Russian Black Sea Fleet parade. Russian military blogger reports NATO reconnaissance active over the Black Sea. Ukraine claims to have blocked the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the waters near Novorossiysk using naval drones. NATO is conducting the "Mediterranean Strike - 2025" exercise in the Mediterranean Sea, including combating unmanned surface vessels. Resources related to the "Ansar Allah" movement claim their missile strike was on Ben-Gurion airport.
Artillery: Ukrainian General Staff reports 715 shelling incidents by Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction. Russian forces reportedly engaged a Ukrainian vehicle near Predtechino with artillery before FPV drone destruction. Russian claims of 66 strikes by Ukrainian forces on border settlements in Bryansk Oblast. Intense artillery fire reported on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian mortar crew with Lancet drone. Russian MoD claims Ukrainian forces conducted 1455 artillery and mortar shellings from May 3rd to 8th. Russian forces attacked Nikopol district with heavy artillery.
MLRS: Apparent first combat deployment and operation of North Korean 240-mm MLRS M1991 by Russian forces reported. Russian MoD claims Ukrainian forces conducted 23 MLRS attacks from May 3rd to 8th.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Germany: Friedrich Merz has been officially elected as the new Federal Chancellor. Merz hopes for a 30-day ceasefire agreement to be reached this weekend, based on a joint proposal from Germany, US, UK, France, and Poland; however, a clarification indicates he meant the "ball is in Moscow's court" regarding the potential for a longer ceasefire.
Russia: Preparations for Victory Day continue, with military parades and symbolic events being highlighted. Russian state media is promoting narratives around being "deceived" by the West and highlighting claimed Russian achievements. Russian state media is also leveraging cultural events like the "Turetsky Choir" performance at the UN to promote their narrative. Ramzan Kadyrov addressed resignation rumors. Russian officials conducted a photo op in damaged areas and faced criticism. Russian authorities engaging in commemorative activities at a regional level. Regional procurement of military medals highlighted. Heightened security measures in major cities and regions for May 9th. Russia confirmed negotiations with the US on the resumption of gas supplies to Europe. Maria Zakharova claims the West is "furious" because "facts and history are on Russia's side" and claims the West is using Russophobia to falsify WWII results. Russian AI is being used to recreate WWII announcer voices and images for propaganda. "Immortal Regiment" action took place in Mariupol. Youth perspective on Victory Day is being showcased. ТАСС reports the Prime Minister of Slovakia arrived in Moscow for Victory Day. Kotsnews shares photos of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade. Washington Post, as cited by Russian sources, suggests the presence of foreign leaders at the parade signals a failure of Western isolation efforts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a Victory Day car rally. ТАСС reports Patriarch Kirill congratulated the new Pope. Military parades took place in Kaliningrad. Ceremonies were held in Mariupol at the monument to fallen marines. Russian state media highlights President Putin's meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Fico. Russian state media is promoting "Letters of Victory" action. Russian AI is being used for propaganda related to Victory Day. President of Egypt thanked Putin for warm reception and congratulated Russia on Victory Day. Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova explained why a journalist was blurred. Russian military personnel congratulated on Victory Day from the "Special Military Operation zone." WarGonzo shares an article on a 1941 Soviet calendar. Exhibit in Ogre, Latvia, featuring alleged uniforms of killed Russian soldiers reported. Russian claims of changes in the situation in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) and Leonidivka. A criminal case against a deputy police chief accused of torture was suspended due to him joining the military. WarGonzo shares an anecdote about Semen Pegov's grandfather wanting to join the Donetsk militia. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of Russian military personnel from the Kherson direction congratulating on Victory Day. Два майора promotes a "Songs of Victory" concert in Volgograd. AV БогомаZ shares a video of the "Immortal Regiment" online action. Kotsnews shares historical commentary on Ilya Ehrenburg.
Ukraine: Large-scale prisoner exchange resulted in the return of 205 Ukrainian service members. Donetsk Regional Prosecutor's Office and the Ombudsman are investigating alleged execution of Ukrainian POWs. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry calls on countries not to participate in the Moscow Victory Day parade. Ukrainian parliamentary committee supported ratification of a subsoil agreement. New rules for driving exams are being prepared. Increase in the number of millionaires reported. Polish carriers are preparing for a new border blockade. Ukrainian Hryvnia appreciated against the dollar. Regional authorities are providing support for military and civilians. Ukrainian critiques of military leadership raised by a military blogger. Ukrainian commentary on the implications of US envoy's peace proposal. Biden criticizes Trump's strategy on Ukraine. Ukrainian diaspora is conducting counter-propaganda actions in Europe and America titled "Mortal Regiment". Zelenskiy announced meetings with leaders of the "coalition of the resolute". Police in Zakarpattia detained individuals with Soviet symbols. Return of state ownership of Rivne Automobile Repair Plant. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими held a meeting with families of missing and captured servicemen. Ukraine takes action against individuals under sanctions by blocking their YouTube channels. Nine more children were returned from occupied territories. 35 countries signed a declaration in Lviv on the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. Public display of a statue of Putin as a phallic organ in Warsaw highlights continued public opposition to Russia in some European countries. Ukrainian military units, such as the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, are actively promoting contract military service. Ukraine is highlighting its successful use of naval drones in blocking the Russian Black Sea Fleet near Novorossiysk. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces used a drone to destroy a Russian dugout and house where enemy FPV operators were located. Ukrainian expert comments on potential threats from Romanian elections. Ukrainian Defense Forces removed a Russian tricolor flag on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. Updated regulations for pension payments to IDPs and Ukrainian citizens abroad. Macron has confirmed participation in a hybrid meeting of the "coalition of the resolute" on May 10th in Ukraine. Ukraine is expelling two Hungarian diplomats in response to actions by Hungary. A Russian source reports that Ukrainian authorities will require Russian prisoners of war to pay personal income tax and military tax as non-residents. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of FPV drone strikes on Russian communication systems. Ukrainian Prime Minister stated that 40 countries have united to create a special tribunal within the framework of the Council of Europe. DeepState discusses Russian approaches to the administrative borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
International Relations: Donald Trump made a statement about the US ceasing strikes on Houthis, claiming their capitulation (not independently confirmed). Reports of halting US military aid to Ukraine without Trump's knowledge. The UK is reportedly preparing for a Russian attack. Petition for Alberta's secession from Canada registered. Israeli strikes on Sana'a, Yemen, damaging the airport. Kotsnews discusses the "Obman" narrative and Russia's achievements in international relations. Kotsnews highlights the "Turetsky Choir" performance at the UN as a diplomatic and information operation. US envoy reportedly states Putin is the main obstacle to a ceasefire. Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns comment on the Indo-Pakistan conflict and its potential links to arms supplies to Ukraine. Leaders of 20 out of 27 EU countries support the creation of a tribunal for Russia, and 35 countries signed a declaration to that effect. Russia confirmed negotiations with the US on the resumption of gas supplies to Europe. German Chancellor Merz hopes for a 30-day ceasefire agreement based on a joint proposal from Germany, US, UK, France, and Poland; however, a clarification indicates he meant the "ball is in Moscow's court" regarding the potential for a longer ceasefire. Russian Ambassador claims EU threats to Serbia are an attack on sovereignty and that Serbia-Russia cooperation grows due to sanctions refusal. Spanish activists are reportedly finding and restoring monuments to Soviet soldiers and Spanish anti-fascists. ТАСС reports the Prime Minister of Slovakia arrived in Moscow for Victory Day. Washington Post, as cited by Russian sources, suggests the presence of foreign leaders at the parade signals a failure of Western isolation efforts. ТАСС reports Patriarch Kirill congratulated the new Pope. Public display of a statue of Putin as a phallic organ in Warsaw highlights continued public opposition to Russia in some European countries and serves as an information operation. NATO is conducting the "Mediterranean Strike - 2025" exercise in the Mediterranean Sea, including combating unmanned surface vessels. President of Egypt congratulated Russia on Victory Day. US Special Representative Steve Witkoff discussed his direct contact with Putin. Expert comments on potential threats from Romanian elections. Resources related to the "Ansar Allah" movement claim their missile strike was on Ben-Gurion airport and that the THAAD system failed. Macron has confirmed participation in a hybrid meeting of the "coalition of the resolute" on May 10th in Ukraine. The US and Europeans are reportedly finalizing a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, with refusal potentially leading to new sanctions against Russia. Washington has unofficially indicated no objection to collecting evidence for a special tribunal. Ukraine is expelling two Hungarian diplomats in response to actions by Hungary. Russian military bloggers discuss Moldova's approach to historical memory and the "Immortal Regiment" marches in France.
Moldova: Ministry of Internal Affairs reportedly stated that wearing symbols that "promote war," such as the St. George ribbon, is an administrative offense punishable by fines. Russian military bloggers discuss Moldova's approach to historical memory.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Incident: The recent shooting attack in Makhachkala, Dagestan, with confirmed police fatalities, remains a significant internal security concern. Major explosion and fire in a residential building in Moscow with casualties. Ukrainian drone attack on Kubinka airbase nearby reported. Heightened security measures in major cities and regions for May 9th. ASTRA reports detention of a picketer with an anti-war poster in Moscow. Russian sources are highlighting the heroism of a police officer injured in the recent Makhachkala shooting incident. Reported suspension of a criminal case against a deputy police chief accused of torture who signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense and went to the front. Liquidation of the "Uzbek National-Cultural Autonomy" of Moscow by court.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian claims of successful offensive operations, drone effectiveness (Lancet, FPV), and repelling Ukrainian attacks. Military blogger commentary on strategies, equipment, and perceived shortcomings. Reports of units conducting training. Alleged logistical challenges hinted at through anecdotes. Actively showcasing claimed successes. Utilizing army aviation for strikes. Employing unconventional tactics such as using divers for infiltration (detected and destroyed by Ukraine). Introducing a new qualification badge for assault troops. Threatening "Oreshnik" missile strike on Kyiv if Ukraine stages provocations on May 9th. Highlighting the role of volunteer units and showcasing the awarding of servicemen. Discussing military capabilities and modernization. Engaging in military diplomacy. Reportedly improvising anti-drone defenses on vehicles. Claiming destruction of a Ukrainian vehicle during unloading. Claiming destruction of a Ukrainian quadricycle column in the Kursk border region. Russian military blogger reports on the pace of advance. Satellite imagery reportedly shows fires at Shaikovka airbase. Russian AI is being used for propaganda. Russian state media is highlighting "Immortal Regiment" actions in occupied territories. Russian military bloggers are showcasing youth perspectives on Victory Day. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing Reuters, reports on the near completion of a large explosives production plant in Russia. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Russian soldier committed suicide to avoid a drone attack. Military parades took place in Kaliningrad. Ceremonies in occupied Mariupol involved military personnel. Russian military display of MLRS. Discussion on historical interpretations and the conflict by Colonelcassad reflects military-aligned perspectives. North Korea has launched tactical missiles from its KN-23 MLRS systems. Russian forces have reportedly advanced over 1 km in residential areas on the eastern street of Bogatyr (Kurakhovo direction). Russian units are claiming advances near Grygorivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, and Orekhovo-Vasylivka. Russian paratroopers reportedly used a drone with banners over Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar. WarGonzo shares a video of singer Mara performing for Russian artillerymen. Reported suspension of a criminal case against a police deputy chief accused of torture who joined the military, raising questions about personnel quality. WarGonzo shares an anecdote about Semen Pegov's grandfather wanting to join the Donetsk militia, potentially a propaganda effort. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of Russian military personnel from the Kherson direction congratulating on Victory Day, aiming to boost morale. Colonelcassad shares Russian claims of advances on the Krasnolimansky, Torsky, Verkhnekamensky, and Grigorievka directions, indicating ongoing offensive actions. Два майора promotes a "Songs of Victory" concert in Volgograd, part of the Victory Day celebrations. AV БогомаZ shares a video of the "Immortal Regiment" online action. Kotsnews shares historical commentary on Ilya Ehrenburg.
Security Measures: Continued interception of Ukrainian drones over Russian territory indicates ongoing security efforts. Heightened security measures in major cities and regions for May 9th, including temporary suspension of shopping centers and potential internet restrictions. Russian naval special forces deployed to coastal positions in Crimea. Russia has officially launched its digital conscription system (Reestr povestok) nationwide.
Political Dynamics: Ramzan Kadyrov's statement addressing resignation rumors is relevant to internal political dynamics. Russian officials conducting a photo op in damaged areas and facing criticism highlights internal political issues and potential disconnects. Russia confirmed negotiations with the US on the resumption of gas supplies to Europe. Maria Zakharova claims the West is "furious" because facts and history are with Russia and claims the West is using Russophobia to falsify WWII results. ТАСС reports Patriarch Kirill congratulated the new Pope. Russian state media emphasizes the presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade as a failure of Western isolation efforts. Russian state media highlights President Putin's meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Fico. Ramzan Kadyrov shares video of opening a mosque in Grozny. Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova explained why a journalist was blurred. Liquidation of the "Uzbek National-Cultural Autonomy" of Moscow by court, reflecting government action on internal social dynamics.
Economy: Russian Ministry of Finance has commented on preferential mortgage programs (previous reporting). Russia confirmed negotiations with the US on the resumption of gas supplies to Europe.
Justice System: A human rights activist was sentenced for "fakes" about the army (previous reporting). Investigation into corruption within the Ministry of Defense. Reported suspension of a criminal case against a deputy police chief accused of torture due to him joining the military.
Military Welfare: Report on Russian contract soldier Viktor Ovchinnikov (previous report). Russian military blogger fundraising for veteran (previous report). Regional procurement of military medals highlighted. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Russian soldier committed suicide to avoid a drone attack, highlighting the extreme psychological pressure.
Fire Safety Regulations: Concerns about fire safety regulations hindering drone defense measures for businesses (previous report).
Preparation for Victory Day: Showcasing preparations, awarding of badges, and military parades in Russia and Belarus. Heightened security measures implemented. Russian AI is being used for propaganda. "Immortal Regiment" action took place in Mariupol. Youth perspective on Victory Day is being showcased. Spanish activists restoring monuments are highlighted as a "soft power" initiative by Russia. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА and Мужской хор «Русский Формат» share a music video as a propaganda effort. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a Victory Day car rally. Military parades took place in Kaliningrad. Ceremonies in occupied Mariupol linked to Victory Day. Russian military display of MLRS with patriotic messaging. Continued promotion of Victory Day narratives through various media. Discussion on historical interpretations and the conflict by Colonelcassad is a significant ideological information operation. Radio broadcast with "epic" Victory Day greetings is likely a Ukrainian information operation. Russian state media emphasizes the presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade. Russian state media is promoting "Letters of Victory" action. President of Egypt congratulated Russia on Victory Day. Russian military personnel congratulated on Victory Day from the "Special Military Operation zone." WarGonzo shares an article on a 1941 Soviet calendar. Basurin o Glavnom shares a propaganda film about the "Lebensborn" program. Occupied Melitopol saw the opening of a statue of Stalin. Exhibit in Ogre, Latvia, featuring alleged uniforms of killed Russian soldiers reported. WarGonzo shares an anecdote about Semen Pegov's grandfather wanting to join the Donetsk militia. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of Russian military personnel from the Kherson direction congratulating on Victory Day. Два майора promotes a "Songs of Victory" concert in Volgograd. AV БогомаZ shares a video of the "Immortal Regiment" online action. Kotsnews shares historical commentary on Ilya Ehrenburg. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video showing an FPV drone attack, linked to Victory Day messaging. Воин DV shares OSINT analysis linked to historical study of WWII.
Infrastructure and Services: Power fluctuations reported in Voroshylovsky and Kuybyshevsky districts of Donetsk.
Digital Conscription System: Russia has officially launched its digital conscription system (Reestr povestok) nationwide.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Prisoner Exchange: A large-scale prisoner exchange resulted in the return of 205 Ukrainian service members. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими held a meeting with families of missing and captured servicemen to address their concerns. Nine more children were returned from occupied territories. A Russian source reports that Ukrainian authorities will require Russian prisoners of war to pay personal income tax and military tax as non-residents.
Military Support: Ukrainian regional authorities are addressing requests from defenders and providing support. Fundraising efforts for military units continue actively on both sides, with specific campaigns for drones and other equipment. Russian units are conducting training exercises. Ukrainian forces are highlighting fallen heroes to maintain morale and remembrance. Apparent first combat deployment of North Korean MLRS by Russian forces. The EU is allocating almost 1.9 billion euros from frozen Russian asset profits for Ukraine's defense, including funds for Ukrainian arms manufacturers, artillery, ammunition, and air defense. Ukrainian Air Assault Forces are conducting recruitment campaigns highlighting patriotic motivation. Николаевский Ванёк and 79 окрема десантно-штурмова Таврійська бригада| Офіційний канал showcase the delivery of 11 highly mobile dune buggies to the 79th Air Assault Brigade. Ukrainian military units, such as the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, are actively promoting contract military service. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces used a drone to destroy a Russian dugout and house where enemy FPV operators were located. WarGonzo shares a video of singer Mara performing for Russian artillerymen. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of FPV drone strikes on Russian communication systems, highlighting the effectiveness of drone units. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video showing an FPV drone attack, linked to Victory Day messaging.
Social Support: Ukrainian regional authorities are providing free food packages to residents and IDPs. Ukrainian government is addressing social support for IDPs, particularly housing (previous reporting). Координаційний штаб з питань по поводження з військовополоненими held a meeting with families of missing and captured servicemen. Nine more children were returned from occupied territories, highlighting the impact on families. Updated regulations for pension payments to IDPs and Ukrainian citizens abroad.
Medical Support: Returned Ukrainian POWs will receive medical aid and rehabilitation. Discussions on tactical medicine are ongoing (previous reporting).
Post-Conflict Recovery: Efforts to strengthen energy resilience in Zaporizhzhia, including repairing damaged substations and building new generation capacity. Return of state ownership of Rivne Automobile Repair Plant. Ceremonies in occupied Mariupol highlight Russian efforts to integrate and 'rebuild' occupied territories. Occupied Melitopol saw the opening of a statue of Stalin. Significant demining efforts are underway in Kharkiv Oblast, with almost 185 hectares cleared in the past week. Electricity has been cut off in Sloviansk following night strikes, likely due to a substation hit.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Utilizing ballistic missiles (Iskander-M), Guided Aerial Bombs (UMPK, FAB), FPV drones, Lancet drones, artillery, tanks, and potentially North Korean 240-mm MLRS M1991. Employing specific tactics for offensive operations on the Southern Donetsk direction. Conducting training exercises for tank units. Claiming successful use of FPV drones and Lancet drones to target Ukrainian equipment. Implementing increased security measures in response to drone threats. Deploying naval special forces for coastal control in Crimea. Russian military blogger provides data on the pace of advance. Russian AI is being used for propaganda. Russian forces attempted an offensive near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) with a propaganda objective. Russian forces are reportedly using tanks in shelling positions in Kherson Oblast. Russian forces claimed to have destroyed a Ukrainian BMP with troops near Tetkino. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS alleges significant North Korean military losses in Kursk Oblast, suggesting their deployment alongside Russian forces. Military parades in Kaliningrad showcased various military equipment. Russian military display of MLRS with patriotic messaging. Discussion on historical interpretations and the conflict by Colonelcassad reflects military-aligned perspectives. North Korea has launched tactical missiles from its KN-23 MLRS systems. Russian forces have reportedly advanced over 1 km in residential areas on the eastern street of Bogatyr (Kurakhovo direction). Russian units are claiming advances near Grygorivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, and Orekhovo-Vasylivka. Russian paratroopers reportedly used a drone with banners over Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces are claiming advancement near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. Colonelcassad claims significant Russian successes on the Pokrovsk direction, including the liberation of Pisky. Russian claims of changes in the situation in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) and Leonidivka. Russian military personnel congratulated on Victory Day from the "Special Military Operation zone." WarGonzo shares a video of singer Mara performing for Russian artillerymen. Russian military bloggers claim continued destruction of Ukrainian forces in Tetkino using FAB aviation bombs. Colonelcassad shares Russian claims of advances on the Krasnolimansky, Torsky, Verkhnekamensky, and Grigorievka directions. DeepState discusses Russian approaches to the administrative borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the contested areas in Donetsk Oblast.
Ukraine: Employing air defense systems, F-16s with air-to-air missiles against drones, various military units in defensive and offensive actions. Conducting prisoner exchanges. Implementing administrative changes related to mobilization and social support. Utilizing drones for deep strikes into Russian territory targeting industrial and military facilities, and reportedly military airfields. Investigating alleged war crimes. Using various military units in counterattacks on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade's drone unit showcases successful strikes against Russian logistics and personnel. Ukrainian source reports a Russian soldier committed suicide after a drone attack. Ukrainian diaspora is conducting "Mortal Regiment" counter-propaganda actions. Ukrainian Air Assault Forces are conducting recruitment campaigns. Ukrainian forces are reportedly conducting assault actions on the islands of Kherson Oblast. "Підрозділ Shadow," STERNENKO (citing "Apachi" FPV pilots of the 4th Mechanized Battalion), and Президентська бригада ЗСУ (citing the 4th Mechanized Battalion) showcase successful strike drone operations. Ukrainian forces of the 79th Air Assault Brigade are now utilizing dune buggies for enhanced mobility. Ukraine is blocking YouTube channels of sanctioned individuals as an information warfare tactic. 35 countries signed a declaration in Lviv on the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. Ukrainian military units, such as the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, are actively promoting contract military service. Ukraine is highlighting its successful use of naval drones in blocking the Russian Black Sea Fleet near Novorossiysk. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces used a drone to destroy a Russian dugout and house where enemy FPV operators were located. Ukrainian Defense Forces removed a Russian tricolor flag on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian drone attack reportedly targeted a Russian tank rushing to the parade. Ukrainian forces have liberated a forest area near Lyptsi, Kharkiv Oblast, inflicting over 1500 enemy casualties and destroying equipment. Ukrainian SOF reportedly captured 6 Russian soldiers from the 34th Brigade. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of FPV drone strikes on Russian communication systems, relay stations, and an "Orlan" UAV launch site, highlighting a tactical focus. DeepState discusses Russian approaches to the administrative borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the contested areas in Donetsk Oblast.
North Korea: Has launched tactical missiles from its KN-23 MLRS systems. Russian sources promoting claims of North Korean participation in operations in Kursk Oblast.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued intense Russian ground offensive on the Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka directions, with Russian military bloggers claiming tactical advances and the liberation of settlements (including Troitskoye by the Russian MoD), indicates that Russia views these axes as critical for achieving strategic objectives in eastern and southern Ukraine. The high number of attacks reported by the Ukrainian General Staff on these axes (most attacks today on these directions) underscores the significant pressure on Ukrainian forces. The ability of Ukrainian forces to hold these lines despite sustained pressure is strategically important for preventing further Russian advances and protecting key urban centers. Russian claims of capturing strongholds covering the Krasnoarmiysk-Kostiantynivka highway highlight efforts to disrupt key logistical routes. Russian claims of advances near Velyka Novosilka towards Novopil and in other areas on the Southern Donetsk front indicate continued efforts to gain ground in the southern Donetsk region. Colonelcassad shares Russian claims of advances on the Krasnolimansky, Torsky, Verkhnekamensky, and Grigorievka directions. DeepState's analysis on Russian approaches focusing on the Donetsk border rather than the Dnipropetrovsk border provides a nuanced strategic perspective on Russian objectives in these areas.
The renewed Ukrainian ground offensive in Kursk Oblast continues to be a notable development. Conflicting Russian reports on the situation in Tetkino and Novy Put' highlight the uncertainty and intensity of the fighting in this border area. Russian claims of repelling the assault and destroying Ukrainian equipment are aimed at demonstrating defensive success and deterring further attempts. Ukrainian persistence in this area suggests a strategic objective potentially aimed at diverting Russian resources from other fronts or creating a new point of pressure. The reported Ukrainian drone attacks causing civilian casualties in Glushkovsky and Sudzhansky districts of Kursk Oblast also contribute to the pressure on Russia in this border region. Russian military bloggers claim continued destruction of Ukrainian forces in Tetkino using FAB aviation bombs.
The widespread and persistent Russian aerial and drone attacks across Ukraine, targeting both military and civilian infrastructure, remain a key element of their strategy to degrade Ukraine's capabilities, exert psychological pressure, and disrupt daily life. Ukraine's continued drone attacks deep within Russia, targeting industrial and military facilities and potentially military airfields, serve a similar purpose and aim to impose costs on Russia domestically and degrade their war effort. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares video of FPV drone strikes on Russian communication systems, highlighting a key tactical effort to disrupt Russian command and control.
The ongoing information operations surrounding Victory Day are strategically important for both sides. Russia uses it to legitimize the conflict, mobilize domestic support, and project an image of strength and historical continuity. Ukraine and its allies counter this by highlighting Russian war crimes and challenging Russian narratives, aiming to maintain international support and expose alleged Russian hypocrisy. The opening of a statue of Stalin in occupied Melitopol is a clear attempt by Russia to impose its historical narrative and symbols on occupied territory. Два майора promotes a "Songs of Victory" concert in Volgograd, part of the Victory Day celebrations. AV БогомаZ shares a video of the "Immortal Regiment" online action. Kotsnews shares historical commentary on Ilya Ehrenburg. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАZА shares a video showing an FPV drone attack, linked to Victory Day messaging. Russian military personnel from the Kherson direction congratulated on Victory Day, aiming to boost morale. Moldova's stance on symbols associated with the conflict, as indicated by the threat of fines for wearing the St. George ribbon, reflects their political alignment and efforts to distance themselves from Russian narratives.
The progress towards establishing a special tribunal for the crime of aggression is a significant legal and diplomatic strategic effort by Ukraine and its partners to ensure accountability for alleged Russian actions and reinforce international law. Washington's unofficial indication of no objection to collecting evidence is a positive step for this initiative. Ukraine's Prime Minister's statement about 40 countries uniting for this tribunal reinforces the international support.
The continued diplomatic engagements, including foreign leaders attending the Moscow Victory Day parade and discussions between US and Russian envoys, indicate that diplomatic channels remain open, even if direct progress towards peace is limited. Different perspectives on the conditions for a ceasefire, as highlighted by the US envoy's statement about Putin being an obstacle, underscore the challenges in achieving a diplomatic resolution. Macron's confirmation of participation in the "coalition of the resolute" meeting on May 10th signifies continued high-level strategic coordination among Ukraine's partners. The reported US/EU finalization of a 30-day ceasefire proposal, with potential sanctions for refusal, indicates a coordinated effort to exert diplomatic and economic pressure. Ukraine's expulsion of Hungarian diplomats highlights diplomatic tensions with certain neighboring countries.
The updated regulations for pension payments to IDPs and those abroad reflect the Ukrainian government's strategic need to adapt administrative processes to the realities of displacement and ensure the continued well-being of its citizens affected by the conflict.
Ukraine's assertion of successfully blocking the Russian Black Sea Fleet near Novorossiysk using naval drones is a claim of a significant strategic victory in asymmetric naval warfare, potentially limiting Russia's ability to project power in the Black Sea.
The nationwide launch of Russia's digital conscription system is a strategic move to potentially enhance their ability to mobilize personnel, with long-term implications for force generation.
NATO's "Mediterranean Strike - 2025" exercise, including training for countering unmanned surface vessels, demonstrates a strategic adaptation to emerging naval threats and highlights allied cooperation in maintaining maritime security.
The liberation of a forest area near Lyptsi, Kharkiv Oblast, is a significant tactical success for Ukraine, improving the defensive posture around Kharkiv and inflicting substantial losses on Russian forces. This demonstrates successful offensive action by Ukrainian forces and is strategically important for the defense of the region.
The reported suspension of a criminal case against a deputy police chief who joined the military highlights potential internal Russian strategic decisions regarding personnel and the prioritizing of military service over accountability for alleged crimes.
The reported requirement for Russian POWs to pay taxes in Ukraine is an administrative and potentially legal development that reflects Ukraine's approach to managing the consequences of the conflict.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Operational Workflow: (Continued based on new information)

Data from the new messages will be integrated into the existing analysis workflow. This includes:

Data Collection and Preprocessing: The report on the suspended criminal case will be added to internal Russian issues and justice system. The anecdote about Semen Pegov's grandfather will be added to Russian information operations and historical narratives. Macron's confirmation of participation in the meeting will be added to diplomatic developments. The video of Russian military personnel congratulating on Victory Day from the Kherson direction will be added to Russian information operations and military morale. The FPV drone attack video with Victory Day caption will be added to drone activity and information operations. The report on Russian POWs paying taxes will be added to humanitarian issues, legal developments, and potentially diplomatic issues related to POW treatment. The video of FPV drone strikes on Russian communication systems will be added to drone activity and force composition/tactics. Colonelcassad's claims of advances will be added to areas of significant activity and Russian force composition/tactics. The reports on the special tribunal evidence collection will be added to diplomatic and political developments and legal efforts. The promotion of the Victory Day concert and the Immortal Regiment video will be added to Russian information operations and Victory Day preparations. DeepState's analysis will be added to areas of significant activity and strategic considerations, refining the understanding of Russian objectives. The OSINT analysis commentary will be added to other information and military analysis methods. Kotsnews' historical commentary will be added to Russian information operations and historical narratives. The RBC-Ukraine summary will be used to update various sections as needed. The reports on the 30-day ceasefire proposal will be added to diplomatic and political developments and strategic considerations. The report on the expulsion of Hungarian diplomats will be added to diplomatic developments.
Analysis and Modeling: The suspended criminal case will be analyzed for its implications on Russian military recruitment and justice system. The anecdote about Pegov's grandfather will be assessed as a potential propaganda effort. Macron's participation in the meeting will be analyzed for its significance in international support for Ukraine. The Victory Day videos will be analyzed for their messaging and impact on morale. The FPV drone attack video with Victory Day caption will be analyzed as part of the broader information warfare around the commemoration. The report on Russian POW taxes will be analyzed for its legal and humanitarian implications. The video of FPV drone strikes on communication systems will be analyzed for its tactical significance in degrading Russian capabilities. Colonelcassad's claims of advances will be cross-referenced with other sources to assess their validity and strategic importance. The reports on the special tribunal evidence collection will be analyzed for progress in international legal efforts. The Victory Day concert and Immortal Regiment promotion will be analyzed for their role in shaping public opinion and national identity in Russia. DeepState's analysis will inform the understanding of Russian strategic direction and contested areas. The OSINT analysis commentary will be noted as a perspective on military intelligence. Kotsnews' historical commentary will be analyzed for its relevance to current Russian narratives. The RBC-Ukraine summary will be used to ensure comprehensive coverage across different domains. The reports on the 30-day ceasefire proposal will be analyzed for potential pathways to de-escalation or continued conflict. The expulsion of Hungarian diplomats will be analyzed for its impact on regional relations.
Reporting and Visualization: Updated reports will include the suspended criminal case as an internal Russian issue. The anecdote about Pegov's grandfather will be noted under Russian information operations. Macron's participation in the meeting will be reported under diplomatic developments. The Victory Day videos will be referenced under Russian information operations and military morale. The FPV drone attack video will be included under drone activity and information operations. The report on Russian POW taxes will be added to relevant sections. The video of FPV drone strikes on communication systems will be included under drone activity and force composition/tactics. Colonelcassad's claims of advances will be mapped and reported under areas of significant activity. The reports on the special tribunal evidence collection will be included under diplomatic and political developments and legal efforts. The Victory Day concert and Immortal Regiment promotion will be included under Russian information operations. DeepState's analysis will be summarized and included under areas of significant activity and strategic considerations. The OSINT analysis commentary will be noted under other information. Kotsnews' historical commentary will be referenced under Russian information operations. The RBC-Ukraine summary will inform the structure and content of the report. The reports on the 30-day ceasefire proposal will be included under diplomatic and political developments and strategic considerations. The expulsion of Hungarian diplomats will be reported under diplomatic developments.
Feedback Loop: The updated analysis and reports will be disseminated to human commanders for feedback, which will be incorporated to refine future assessments and recommendations.

This continuous process ensures that the analysis remains agile and responsive to the dynamic operational environment, providing commanders with the most accurate and relevant information to support their decision-making while adhering to ethical standards and minimizing collateral damage.

Situation Report