Sitrep 2025-05-09 16:11:02

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 16:10 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be marked by intense ground combat across multiple sectors, including Kharkiv, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, and the Dnipro River direction. The Russian declaration of a "festive ceasefire" for Victory Day continues to be demonstrably violated by both sides. The Kursk border area remains highly active, with Ukrainian attempts to breach Russian defenses reported, and Russian forces claiming to be repelling these efforts and destroying Ukrainian equipment. Russian tactical aviation remains active, launching guided aerial bombs, particularly targeting Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian drone attacks continue, with claims of effectiveness against Russian logistics and equipment. Civilian casualties remain a tragic consequence of the ongoing conflict. Russia has officially launched its digital conscription system (Reestr povestok) nationwide.

Diplomatic and information operations remain significant. EU support for Ukraine's defense capabilities is being bolstered by the allocation of profits from frozen Russian assets for arms procurement. Discussions regarding a special tribunal for the crime of aggression continue to progress, with leaders of 35 countries signing a declaration in Lviv. Russia is heavily emphasizing Victory Day for propaganda purposes, linking the current conflict to historical narratives of victory over Nazism and showcasing military parades and commemorative events across the country, including internationally at their military bases and in occupied Ukrainian territories. Allegations of North Korean participation in operations in Kursk Oblast are being promoted by Russian sources, with claims of planned monuments and street names to honor them, and North Korea has launched tactical missiles from its KN-23 MLRS systems. Diplomatic engagements surrounding Victory Day include the presence of foreign leaders in Moscow, with Russian state media emphasizing their attendance as a failure of Western isolation efforts. Ukraine is taking action against individuals under sanctions by blocking their YouTube channels. Ukrainian diaspora is conducting counter-propaganda actions in Europe and America titled "Mortal Regiment" to highlight Russian war crimes. The newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has expressed hope for a 30-day ceasefire agreement to be reached this weekend, based on a proposal shared with Russia by the US, UK, France, and Poland; however, a clarification indicates he meant the "ball is in Moscow's court" regarding the potential for a longer ceasefire. Discussions regarding the resumption of Russian gas supplies to Europe are reportedly taking place between Russia and the US. Public display of a statue of Putin as a phallic organ in Warsaw highlights continued public opposition to Russia in some European countries. Ukraine is highlighting its successful use of naval drones in blocking the Russian Black Sea Fleet near Novorossiysk. Ukrainian military units, such as the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, are actively promoting contract military service.

Key updates and analysis from the latest messages:

Egyptian President Attending Moscow Victory Day Celebrations: TASS reports that the President of Egypt, in a meeting with Putin, thanked him for the warm reception and congratulated Russia on the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. This indicates continued diplomatic engagement between Egypt and Russia and contributes to the Russian narrative of international attendance at their Victory Day events.
Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian FPV Operators: STERNENKO shares a video claiming that Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces used a drone to destroy a Russian dugout and house where enemy FPV operators were located, resulting in their elimination. This highlights the ongoing counter-drone efforts by Ukrainian forces and the effectiveness of drone-on-drone or drone-on-personnel attacks against key enemy assets.
Russian Propaganda Flight Over Chasiv Yar: Operatsiya Z: Voyenkory Russkoy Vesny shares a video claiming that Russian paratroopers used a drone to fly over Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar carrying Victory Day and VDV (Airborne Forces) banners to "congratulate" Ukrainian forces. This is a clear information operation aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian forces and projecting an image of Russian control or dominance in a heavily contested area.
Russian Claims of Advancement Near Chasiv Yar: Z Komitet + Karta SVO shares a map claiming Russian forces are advancing near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. This suggests continued Russian offensive pressure on this strategically important location.
US Envoy Discusses Direct Contact with Putin: RBC-Ukraine reports on an interview with US Special Representative Steve Witkoff, where he defended his direct meetings with Putin, stating that a proactive approach is needed and that contact with Putin is essential for achieving a settlement. This highlights the ongoing, albeit potentially discreet, high-level diplomatic exchanges occurring despite the conflict and different perspectives within the US on the approach to peace negotiations.
Russian Artist Performs for Troops: WarGonzo shares a video of singer Mara performing for Russian artillerymen in the "Special Military Operation zone" and congratulating Russians on Victory Day. This is part of a broader Russian effort to maintain morale among troops and connect them to national celebrations and historical narratives.
Ukrainian Claim of Destroyed Russian Tank Rushing to Moscow Parade: Shef Hayabusa shares a photo message with a sarcastic caption implying a destroyed Russian tank was rushing to the parade in Moscow. While the authenticity of the image and the context is uncertain, it serves as a piece of Ukrainian information warfare aimed at ridiculing Russian military capabilities and the symbolism of Victory Day parades.
Statue of Stalin Erected in Occupied Melitopol: ASTRA reports the opening of a statue of Stalin in occupied Melitopol on May 8th, initiated by the local Communist Party. This is a significant act of historical revisionism and an attempt by the occupying Russian authorities to impose Soviet-era symbolism and historical narratives on occupied Ukrainian territory, reinforcing the link between the current conflict and the Soviet victory in WWII.
Russian Propaganda Film About WWII "Lebensborn" Program: Basurin o Glavnom shares a short film titled "Aryan" about the German "Lebensborn" organization during WWII. This is part of a broader Russian propaganda effort to link the current conflict to the fight against Nazism and highlight alleged historical injustices, leveraging emotional narratives to gain support for their actions.
Changes to Pension Payments for IDPs and Those Abroad: Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports on updated regulations for pension payments to internally displaced persons (IDPs) and Ukrainian citizens abroad, allowing payments through any Ukrainian bank and changing the frequency of identification for some categories of IDPs to annually. This indicates ongoing efforts by the Ukrainian government to adjust administrative processes to the realities of the conflict and support affected populations.
Public Figure Joins "Immortal Regiment" Action: Alex Parker Returns shares a photo of "Pavlo de Dur" (likely a satirical or pseudonymous figure) joining the "Immortal Regiment" action with a photo of his grandfather, writing in Russian. This suggests participation in this commemorative event, even if the figure is not real, and reflects the ongoing public engagement with Victory Day.
Russian Claims of Advancements on the Pokrovsk Direction and Liberation of Pisky: Colonelcassad shares a map and commentary claiming significant Russian successes on the Pokrovsk direction, including expanding control around Novooleksandrivka and the liberation of Pisky (west of Donetsk). They also claim active combat and the use of drones and KABs in the areas of Udachne and Kotlyne, with forces attempting to consolidate positions. This indicates continued and potentially successful Russian offensive actions on this critical front, with a claimed strategic objective towards Pokrovsk.
Houthi Claims Regarding Missile Strike and THAAD Effectiveness: Voenkor Kotenok reports on claims from Houthi-linked resources that their recent strike was on Ben-Gurion airport, not Jerusalem, and that the US THAAD system in Israel failed to intercept the missile. They also claim Iran's new "Qassem Basir" missile is designed to overcome THAAD. This provides an alternative narrative on recent events in the Middle East, highlighting perceived shortcomings in US and Israeli air defense and Iran's missile development.
Expert Opinion on Potential Threats from Romanian Elections: RBC-Ukraine shares commentary from a Ukrainian political technologist regarding potential threats to Ukraine if ultra-right candidate George Simion wins the Romanian presidential election. The expert suggests that while Simion might win, a complete 180-degree shift in Romanian policy towards Ukraine is unlikely. This reflects Ukrainian concerns about potential changes in support from neighboring countries based on their internal political dynamics.
Russian MFA Spokesperson Comments on Interview Blurring: TASS reports on Maria Zakharova explaining why a journalist who interviewed her about Russia's global role was blurred, stating the publication was shocked by the employee's behavior and initially withheld the interview. This provides insight into internal dynamics and information control within Russian state media.
Russian Military Personnel Congratulating on Victory Day: Voin DV shares a video of military personnel from the 36th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" grouping congratulating people on Victory Day from the "Special Military Operation zone." This is a direct communication from the front lines aimed at connecting military personnel with the national celebration and reinforcing patriotic sentiments.
WarGonzo Article on 1941 Soviet Calendar: WarGonzo shares a short article about a Soviet calendar from 1941 and how it didn't initially reflect the war, referencing a person who was born just before the war started. This is part of the extensive Russian historical narrative around WWII and its connection to current events.
Ukrainian Forces Remove Russian Flag on Dnipro Left Bank: Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights shares a video showing Ukrainian Defense Forces removing a Russian tricolor flag on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. This suggests continued Ukrainian activity and presence, however limited, on the occupied left bank and serves as a symbolic act challenging Russian control.
Latvian Exhibit Featuring Alleged Uniforms of Killed Russian Soldiers: Rybar reports on an exhibit in Ogre, Latvia, that reportedly includes uniforms claimed to be taken from killed Russian soldiers in the conflict zone. The exhibit is described as glorifying Latvian SS legionnaires and "forest brothers" while portraying Russian soldiers as "sadists" and "orcs." This highlights extreme anti-Russian sentiment in some parts of the Baltics and the use of potentially disturbing exhibits for political and propaganda purposes.
Russian Claims of Changes in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk): Z Komitet + Karta SVO shares a map claiming changes in the situation in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) and Leonidivka. This indicates continued military activity and claimed territorial shifts in this area.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Donetsk Oblast (Kharkiv, Lyman, Kramatorsk, Toretsk/Dzerzhinsk, Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk, Novopavlivka, Orikhiv, Kurakhove, Donetsk-Yasynuvata, Mariupol, Bogatyr, Grygorivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Orekhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Pisky): Intense ground combat continues across numerous sectors. Russian MoD claims the liberation of Troitskoye and continued advancements. Ukrainian General Staff reports 117 total combat engagements (as of previous report), with the most on the Pokrovsk (41 attacks), Novopavlivka (19 attacks), and Lyman (17 attacks) directions. Russian military bloggers claim Russian forces raised the flag in Novoolexandrivka. Fighting reported near Dzerzhinsk/Toretsk. Civilian casualties reported in Horlivka and Kurakhove. Russian forces are reportedly active on the Pokrovsk direction using BBM. Russian media disseminating information about Russian sappers conducting demining operations in "liberated territories." Воин DV reports claimed Russian successes in suppressing Ukrainian forces and destroying equipment and personnel. Military personnel of the Russian "Vostok" grouping conducted an auto rally to congratulate civilians in the DPR on Victory Day. Ceremonies were held in Mariupol at the monument to fallen marines. Russian forces have reportedly advanced over 1 km in residential areas on the eastern street of Bogatyr (Kurakhovo direction). Russian units are claiming advances near Grygorivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, and Orekhovo-Vasylivka. Russian strikes with guided aerial bombs on residential buildings in Kostyantynivka have been confirmed. Russian paratroopers reportedly used a drone with banners over Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces are claiming advancement near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. Colonelcassad claims significant Russian successes on the Pokrovsk direction, including the liberation of Pisky and expanding control around Novooleksandrivka. Russian claims of changes in the situation in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) and Leonidivka.
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Tetkino, Novy Put', Glushkovo, Sudzha, Ryzhivka, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Popovo-Lezhachi): Renewed reports of intense fighting. Russian military bloggers claim Ukrainian forces continue attempts to break through near Tetkino and Novy Put', facing heavy fire and suffering equipment losses. WarGonzo reports Russian fighters near Tetkino are in a near-encirclement situation. Military Correspondent Kotenok reports a Ukrainian missile strike on Glushkovo overnight, resulting in a civilian fatality. Ukrainian forces reportedly targeted a temple near Tetkino. Ukrainian award of "Hero of Ukraine" to Colonel Pavlo Rozlach linked to successful offensive actions here. The Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling 7 Russian attacks on the Kursk direction today (previous). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS shares a brief message alleging significant North Korean military losses here. Russian sources promoting claims of planning streets and monuments in honor of North Korean military personnel.
Sumy Oblast (Ryzhivka, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Starikove, Maryine, Myropilske, Novodmytrivka, Petrushivka, Середина Буда, Нововасильевка, Хутор Михайловский, Толстодубово, Василевское, Nova Sloboda, Brusky): Border settlements are suffering from cynical shelling. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs towards areas of Nova Sloboda, Brusky, and Boyaro-Lezhachi. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs towards the region. Russian sources claim Ukrainian aviation operated over Sumy Oblast during a missile strike on Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast. Colonelcassad claims the destruction of Ukrainian strongholds here. Ukrainian forces reportedly used mortar shelling from the direction of Ryzhivka and Boyaro-Lezhachi during an attack near Tetkino. The Ukrainian Air Force has reported the lifting of a missile threat alert for Sumy Oblast.
Kharkiv Oblast (Velykyi Burluk, Kupiansk, Synelnykove, Zapsillya, Редкодуб, Паламаревка, Lozova, Зарічне, Старосалтівська громада, Bereznyky): The Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling two Russian attacks here. Russian MoD claims losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces here. Russian sources claim a strike on a Ukrainian UAV command point and the destruction of equipment. A Ukrainian source reports a Russian FPV drone attack on a communal service vehicle. An 11-year-old boy was injured by an explosive device. Reports of corruption within the Lozivskyi TCC highlight internal issues. The 120th Separate Territorial Defense Battalion and volunteers are training with ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns. Colonelcassad shares video claiming to show Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian assault group attempting to break through into Belgorod Oblast from Bereznyky.
Kyiv Oblast (Sofiivska Borshchahivka): Reports of a shooting incident with multiple fatalities. The individual responsible has been apprehended.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Темировка, Новоданиловка, Павловка, Каменское, Stepove, Shcherbaky, Gulyaipole, Malaya Tokmachka, Temirovka, Olgovskoye, Pokrovsk community of the Synelnykivskyi district): Russian MoD claims losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces here. The Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling three Russian assaults on the Orikhiv direction and no active Russian offensive actions on the Huliaipole direction. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration provides clarifications on mobilization and reports on a meeting focused on preparing communities for the return of veterans and their support. Confirmed civilian fatality and 8 injured due to a Russian KAB strike in the Pokrovsk community of the Synelnykivskyi district. Russian forces conducting strikes and drone activity. Russian claims of destroying enemy equipment and personnel and striking energy infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia city. Ukrainian forces continue counterattacks in the areas of Stepove and Shcherbaky. Intense drone and artillery activity. Russian claims of successfully striking enemy targets and using drones. A substation was damaged by a recent drone attack, affecting over 20,000 customers, but power was restored quickly. Energy resilience efforts are underway, including building new generation capacity. Military personnel of the Russian "Vostok" grouping conducted an auto rally to congratulate civilians here on Victory Day. Occupied Melitopol saw the opening of a statue of Stalin.
Bryansk Oblast (Russia) (including Sluchevsk): Russian claims of 66 strikes by Ukrainian forces on border settlements over the past day. Russian claims of Ukrainian drone attack resulting in a civilian fatality in Sluchevsk.
Saransk (Mordovia, Russia): Ukrainian strike on the fiber optic systems plant, reportedly causing serious damage. Ukrainian sources highlight the strategic significance.
Moscow (Russia) (including Kubinka airbase, Novy Gorodok): Major explosion and fire in a residential building with casualties. Ukrainian drone attack on Kubinka airbase nearby reported. Military aviation activity over Moscow as part of Victory Parade preparations. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destroying two Ukrainian UAVs over the Moscow region. ASTRA reports detention of a picketer with an anti-war poster. Arrival of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić for Victory Day celebrations. TASS is broadcasting live coverage of the Victory Day parade and fireworks. President Putin's meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Fico is highlighted.
Crimea: Heightened security and military activity due to perceived threats. Russian naval special forces deployed to coastal positions. Ukrainian source mocks a Russian Black Sea Fleet parade.
Kleban-Byk: Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian M113 BTR with a Lancet drone.
Shaikovka Airbase (Kaluga Oblast, Russia): Satellite imagery reportedly shows two fires on the airbase after a Ukrainian strike. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destroying seven Ukrainian UAVs over Kaluga Oblast.
Tula Oblast: Russian Ministry of Defense claims destroying four Ukrainian UAVs over this region.
Minsk (Belarus): General rehearsal for the military parade commemorating Victory in the Great Patriotic War.
St. Petersburg (Russia): Temporary suspension of shopping center operations on May 9th for security.
Chuvashia (Russia): Transport restrictions and potential mobile internet restrictions on May 9th for security.
Cherkasy and Smela (Cherkasy Oblast): Russian strikes using Geran/Gerbera drones reported. Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs.
Chernihiv and Chernihiv Oblast: Russian strikes using Geran/Gerbera drones reported.
Zhytomyr and Zhytomyr Oblast: Russian strikes using Geran/Gerbera drones reported.
Donbas (including Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk, Dobropillya, Slovyansk): Russian strikes using UMPK and Geran/Gerbera drones reported.
Konotop (Sumy Oblast): Russian strikes using Iskander-M reported.
Uman area: Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs.
Kremenchuk area: Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs.
Pereyaslav area: Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs.
Yemen (Sana'a): Israeli strikes reported, damaging the airport. Reports about Houthis ceasing attacks (not independently confirmed). Военкор Котенок reports a Houthi missile launched at Israel was shot down near Jerusalem. Resources related to the "Ansar Allah" movement claim their strike was on Ben-Gurion airport and that the THAAD system failed.
Lviv (Ukraine): 35 countries signed a declaration on the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine here.
Kaliningrad (Russia): A military parade took place here.
Warsaw (Poland): Public display of a statue of Putin as a phallic organ occurred here.
Rivne Oblast: State ownership of Rivne Automobile Repair Plant returned.
Zakarpattia Oblast (Khustskyi Raion, Mizhhir'ya village): Police detained a UOC (MP) priest and another individual for displaying Soviet symbols.
Spain: Spanish activists are reportedly finding and restoring monuments to Soviet soldiers and Spanish anti-fascists.
Krasnodar Krai (Russia): Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a Victory Day car rally here.
Biysk (Altai Krai, Russia): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing Reuters, reports on the near completion of a large explosives production plant at the "Biysk Oleum Plant" here.
Novorossiysk (Russia): Ukraine claims to have blocked the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the waters near this port using naval drones.
Grygorivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian units are claiming advances near here.
Dubovo-Vasylivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian units are claiming advances near here.
Orekhovo-Vasylivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian units are claiming advances near here.
Left Bank of Dnipro River (Kherson Oblast): Ukrainian Defense Forces removed a Russian tricolor flag here.
Ogre (Latvia): Exhibit featuring alleged uniforms of killed Russian soldiers reported.

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Increased and widespread Russian drone activity reported across multiple oblasts (Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Bryansk, Kursk, Sumy, Moscow, Kaluga, Tula, Dnipropetrovsk). Ukrainian General Staff reports 145 kamikaze drones used by Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction alone. Continued Russian drone activity observed over Kyiv. Russian Ministry of Defense claims destruction of Ukrainian artillery and vehicles using Molniya UAVs and FPV drones. Ukrainian drone attack confirmed on a fiber optic systems plant in Saransk. Ukrainian unit requesting a ground drone for operations near Dvorichna. Potential cellular and internet restrictions in Tver and Chuvashia Oblasts due to drone threat. Temporary airport restrictions in Tambov due to a "Kovyor" plan. Ukrainian drone attack on Kubinka airbase near Moscow reported. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian mortar crew and M113 BTR with Lancet drones. Russian claims of destroying 13 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs over Kaluga, Tula, and Moscow regions. Russian claims of Ukrainian drone attack resulting in a civilian fatality in Bryansk Oblast. Oleh Vilkul reports three Russian UAVs shot down over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs over various locations. Russian Ministry of Defense reports destroying a Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone in the Orekhov direction and an AFU field artillery gun near Gulyaipole using FPV drones. Ukrainian video from the 3rd Assault Brigade showcases successful drone strikes against Russian vehicles and personnel. Ukrainian source reports a Russian soldier self-denazified (committed suicide) to avoid a second drone drop. "Підрозділ Shadow," STERNENKO (citing "Apachi" FPV pilots of the 4th Mechanized Battalion), and Президентська бригада ЗСУ (citing the 4th Mechanized Battalion) share videos highlighting the work of strike drone operators. A substation was damaged by a recent drone attack. Russian forces attacked Nikopol district with FPV drones. Ukrainian drone successfully targeted a Russian vehicle transporting ammunition near the front lines. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces used a drone to destroy a Russian dugout and house where enemy FPV operators were located. Russian paratroopers reportedly used a drone to fly over Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar with propaganda banners. Ukrainian drone attack reportedly targeted a Russian tank rushing to the parade.
Ballistic Missile Activity: Ballistic missile strike on the suburbs of Sumy resulting in multiple fatalities and injuries, including children. Russian strikes using Iskander-M reported in Kyiv, Konotop, Dnipropetrovsk, and Synelnykove area. Военкор Котенок reports a Houthi missile launched at Israel was shot down near Jerusalem. North Korea has launched tactical missiles from its KN-23 MLRS systems. Resources related to the "Ansar Allah" movement claim their strike was on Ben-Gurion airport and that the THAAD system failed.
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Russian forces utilized 7 KABs in 3 aerial strikes in the Kharkiv direction. Confirmed civilian fatality and 8 injured due to a Russian KAB strike in the Pokrovsk community of the Synelnykivskyi district. Russian strikes using UMPK (likely KABs) reported in Sumy, Donbas, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. Russian strikes with guided aerial bombs on residential buildings in Kostyantynivka have been confirmed.
Tactical Aviation: Active in the Kharkiv direction, conducting aerial strikes. Russian military aviation activity over Moscow as part of Victory Parade preparations. Russian aviation reportedly involved in strikes across Ukraine. Russian tactical aviation remains active on the northeastern direction, launching guided aerial bombs towards Sumy Oblast. Fighterbomber shares a video with aviation footage.
Naval Situation: Trump's statement regarding the US ceasing strikes on Houthis is a significant development in the Red Sea, although not independently confirmed. Israeli strikes on Sana'a airport in Yemen suggest continued regional military activity. Russian naval special forces deployed to coastal positions in Crimea. Ukrainian source mocks a Russian Black Sea Fleet parade, referencing Storm Shadow missiles. Russian military blogger reports NATO reconnaissance active over the Black Sea. Ukraine claims to have blocked the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the waters near Novorossiysk using naval drones. NATO is conducting the "Mediterranean Strike - 2025" exercise in the Mediterranean Sea, including combating unmanned surface vessels. Resources related to the "Ansar Allah" movement claim their missile strike was on Ben-Gurion airport.
Artillery: Ukrainian General Staff reports 715 shelling incidents by Russian forces in the Kharkiv direction. Russian forces reportedly engaged a Ukrainian vehicle near Predtechino with artillery before FPV drone destruction. Russian claims of 66 strikes by Ukrainian forces on border settlements in Bryansk Oblast. Intense artillery fire reported on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Russian claims of destroying Ukrainian mortar crew with Lancet drone. Russian MoD claims Ukrainian forces conducted 1455 artillery and mortar shellings from May 3rd to 8th. Russian forces attacked Nikopol district with heavy artillery.
MLRS: Apparent first combat deployment and operation of North Korean 240-mm MLRS M1991 by Russian forces reported. Russian MoD claims Ukrainian forces conducted 23 MLRS attacks from May 3rd to 8th.

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Germany: Friedrich Merz has been officially elected as the new Federal Chancellor. Merz hopes for a 30-day ceasefire agreement to be reached this weekend, based on a joint proposal from Germany, US, UK, France, and Poland; however, a clarification indicates he meant the "ball is in Moscow's court" regarding the potential for a longer ceasefire.
Russia: Preparations for Victory Day continue, with military parades and symbolic events being highlighted. Russian state media is promoting narratives around being "deceived" by the West and highlighting claimed Russian achievements. Russian state media is also leveraging cultural events like the "Turetsky Choir" performance at the UN to promote their narrative. Ramzan Kadyrov addressed resignation rumors. Russian officials conducted a photo op in damaged areas and faced criticism. Russian authorities engaging in commemorative activities at a regional level. Regional procurement of military medals highlighted. Heightened security measures in major cities and regions for May 9th. Russia confirmed negotiations with the US on the resumption of gas supplies to Europe. Maria Zakharova claims the West is "furious" because "facts and history are on Russia's side" and claims the West is using Russophobia to falsify WWII results. Russian AI is being used to recreate WWII announcer voices and images for propaganda. "Immortal Regiment" action took place in Mariupol. Youth perspective on Victory Day is being showcased. ТАСС reports the Prime Minister of Slovakia arrived in Moscow for Victory Day. Kotsnews shares photos of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade. Washington Post, as cited by Russian sources, suggests the presence of foreign leaders at the parade signals a failure of Western isolation efforts. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a Victory Day car rally. ТАСС reports Patriarch Kirill congratulated the new Pope. Military parades took place in Kaliningrad. Ceremonies were held in Mariupol at the monument to fallen marines. Russian state media highlights President Putin's meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Fico. Russian state media is promoting "Letters of Victory" action. Russian AI is being used for propaganda related to Victory Day. President of Egypt thanked Putin for warm reception and congratulated Russia on Victory Day. Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova explained why a journalist was blurred. Russian military personnel congratulated on Victory Day from the "Special Military Operation zone." WarGonzo shares an article on a 1941 Soviet calendar. Exhibit in Ogre, Latvia, featuring alleged uniforms of killed Russian soldiers reported. Russian claims of changes in the situation in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) and Leonidivka.
Ukraine: Large-scale prisoner exchange resulted in the return of 205 Ukrainian service members. Donetsk Regional Prosecutor's Office and the Ombudsman are investigating alleged execution of Ukrainian POWs. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry calls on countries not to participate in the Moscow Victory Day parade. Ukrainian parliamentary committee supported ratification of a subsoil agreement. New rules for driving exams are being prepared. Increase in the number of millionaires reported. Polish carriers are preparing for a new border blockade. Ukrainian Hryvnia appreciated against the dollar. Regional authorities are providing support for military and civilians. Ukrainian critiques of military leadership raised by a military blogger. Ukrainian commentary on the implications of US envoy's peace proposal. Biden criticizes Trump's strategy on Ukraine. Ukrainian diaspora is conducting counter-propaganda actions in Europe and America titled "Mortal Regiment". Zelenskiy announced meetings with leaders of the "coalition of the resolute". Police in Zakarpattia detained individuals with Soviet symbols. Return of state ownership of Rivne Automobile Repair Plant. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими held a meeting with families of missing and captured servicemen. Ukraine takes action against individuals under sanctions by blocking their YouTube channels. Nine more children were returned from occupied territories. 35 countries signed a declaration in Lviv on the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. Public display of a statue of Putin as a phallic organ in Warsaw highlights continued public opposition to Russia in some European countries. Ukrainian military units, such as the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, are actively promoting contract military service. Ukraine is highlighting its successful use of naval drones in blocking the Russian Black Sea Fleet near Novorossiysk. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces used a drone to destroy a Russian dugout and house where enemy FPV operators were located. Ukrainian expert comments on potential threats from Romanian elections. Ukrainian Defense Forces removed a Russian tricolor flag on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. Updated regulations for pension payments to IDPs and Ukrainian citizens abroad.
International Relations: Donald Trump made a statement about the US ceasing strikes on Houthis, claiming their capitulation (not independently confirmed). Reports of halting US military aid to Ukraine without Trump's knowledge. The UK is reportedly preparing for a Russian attack. Petition for Alberta's secession from Canada registered. Israeli strikes on Sana'a, Yemen, damaging the airport. Kotsnews discusses the "Obman" narrative and Russia's achievements in international relations. Kotsnews highlights the "Turetsky Choir" performance at the UN as a diplomatic and information operation. US envoy reportedly states Putin is the main obstacle to a ceasefire. Colonelcassad and Alex Parker Returns comment on the Indo-Pakistan conflict and its potential links to arms supplies to Ukraine. Leaders of 20 out of 27 EU countries support the creation of a tribunal for Russia, and 35 countries signed a declaration to that effect. Russia confirmed negotiations with the US on the resumption of gas supplies to Europe. German Chancellor Merz hopes for a 30-day ceasefire agreement based on a joint proposal from Germany, US, UK, France, and Poland; however, a clarification indicates he meant the "ball is in Moscow's court" regarding the potential for a longer ceasefire. Russian Ambassador claims EU threats to Serbia are an attack on sovereignty and that Serbia-Russia cooperation grows due to sanctions refusal. Spanish activists are reportedly finding and restoring monuments to Soviet soldiers and Spanish anti-fascists. ТАСС reports the Prime Minister of Slovakia arrived in Moscow for Victory Day. Washington Post, as cited by Russian sources, suggests the presence of foreign leaders at the parade signals a failure of Western isolation efforts. ТАСС reports Patriarch Kirill congratulated the new Pope. Public display of a statue of Putin as a phallic organ in Warsaw highlights continued public opposition to Russia in some European countries and serves as an information operation. NATO is conducting the "Mediterranean Strike - 2025" exercise in the Mediterranean Sea, including combating unmanned surface vessels. President of Egypt congratulated Russia on Victory Day. US Special Representative Steve Witkoff discussed his direct contact with Putin. Expert comments on potential threats from Romanian elections. Resources related to the "Ansar Allah" movement claim their missile strike was on Ben-Gurion airport and that the THAAD system failed.

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Incident: The recent shooting attack in Makhachkala, Dagestan, with confirmed police fatalities, remains a significant internal security concern. Major explosion and fire in a residential building in Moscow with casualties. Ukrainian drone attack on Kubinka airbase nearby reported. Heightened security measures in major cities and regions for May 9th. ASTRA reports detention of a picketer with an anti-war poster in Moscow. Russian sources are highlighting the heroism of a police officer injured in the recent Makhachkala shooting incident.
Military Performance and Capabilities: Russian claims of successful offensive operations, drone effectiveness (Lancet, FPV), and repelling Ukrainian attacks. Military blogger commentary on strategies, equipment, and perceived shortcomings. Reports of units conducting training. Alleged logistical challenges hinted at through anecdotes. Actively showcasing claimed successes. Utilizing army aviation for strikes. Employing unconventional tactics such as using divers for infiltration (detected and destroyed by Ukraine). Introducing a new qualification badge for assault troops. Threatening "Oreshnik" missile strike on Kyiv if Ukraine stages provocations on May 9th. Highlighting the role of volunteer units and showcasing the awarding of servicemen. Discussing military capabilities and modernization. Engaging in military diplomacy. Reportedly improvising anti-drone defenses on vehicles. Claiming destruction of a Ukrainian vehicle during unloading. Claiming destruction of a Ukrainian quadricycle column in the Kursk border region. Russian military blogger reports on the pace of advance. Satellite imagery reportedly shows fires at Shaikovka airbase. Russian AI is being used for propaganda. Russian state media is highlighting "Immortal Regiment" actions in occupied territories. Russian military bloggers are showcasing youth perspectives on Victory Day. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, citing Reuters, reports on the near completion of a large explosives production plant in Russia. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Russian soldier committed suicide to avoid a drone attack. Military parades took place in Kaliningrad. Ceremonies in occupied Mariupol involved military personnel. Russian military display of MLRS. Discussion on historical interpretations and the conflict by Colonelcassad reflects military-aligned perspectives. North Korea has launched tactical missiles from its KN-23 MLRS systems. Russian forces have reportedly advanced over 1 km in residential areas on the eastern street of Bogatyr (Kurakhovo direction). Russian units are claiming advances near Grygorivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, and Orekhovo-Vasylivka. Russian paratroopers reportedly used a drone with banners over Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar. WarGonzo shares a video of singer Mara performing for Russian artillerymen.
Security Measures: Continued interception of Ukrainian drones over Russian territory indicates ongoing security efforts. Heightened security measures in major cities and regions for May 9th, including temporary suspension of shopping centers and potential internet restrictions. Russian naval special forces deployed to coastal positions in Crimea. Russia has officially launched its digital conscription system (Reestr povestok) nationwide.
Political Dynamics: Ramzan Kadyrov's statement addressing resignation rumors is relevant to internal political dynamics. Russian officials conducting a photo op in damaged areas and facing criticism highlights internal political issues and potential disconnects. Russia confirmed negotiations with the US on the resumption of gas supplies to Europe. Maria Zakharova claims the West is "furious" because facts and history are with Russia and claims the West is using Russophobia to falsify WWII results. ТАСС reports Patriarch Kirill congratulated the new Pope. Russian state media emphasizes the presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade as a failure of Western isolation efforts. Russian state media highlights President Putin's meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Fico. Ramzan Kadyrov shares video of opening a mosque in Grozny. Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova explained why a journalist was blurred.
Economy: Russian Ministry of Finance has commented on preferential mortgage programs (previous reporting). Russia confirmed negotiations with the US on the resumption of gas supplies to Europe.
Justice System: A human rights activist was sentenced for "fakes" about the army (previous reporting). Investigation into corruption within the Ministry of Defense.
Military Welfare: Report on Russian contract soldier Viktor Ovchinnikov (previous report). Russian military blogger fundraising for veteran (previous report). Regional procurement of military medals highlighted. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС reports a Russian soldier committed suicide to avoid a drone attack, highlighting the extreme psychological pressure.
Fire Safety Regulations: Concerns about fire safety regulations hindering drone defense measures for businesses (previous report).
Preparation for Victory Day: Showcasing preparations, awarding of badges, and military parades in Russia and Belarus. Heightened security measures implemented. Russian AI is being used for propaganda. "Immortal Regiment" action took place in Mariupol. Youth perspective on Victory Day is being showcased. Spanish activists restoring monuments are highlighted as a "soft power" initiative by Russia. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА and Мужской хор «Русский Формат» share a music video as a propaganda effort. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 shares a video of a Victory Day car rally. Military parades took place in Kaliningrad. Ceremonies in occupied Mariupol linked to Victory Day. Russian military display of MLRS with patriotic messaging. Continued promotion of Victory Day narratives through various media. Discussion on historical interpretations and the conflict by Colonelcassad is a significant ideological information operation. Radio broadcast with "epic" Victory Day greetings is likely a Ukrainian information operation. Russian state media emphasizes the presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade. Russian state media is promoting "Letters of Victory" action. President of Egypt congratulated Russia on Victory Day. Russian military personnel congratulated on Victory Day from the "Special Military Operation zone." WarGonzo shares an article on a 1941 Soviet calendar. Basurin o Glavnom shares a propaganda film about the "Lebensborn" program. Occupied Melitopol saw the opening of a statue of Stalin. Exhibit in Ogre, Latvia, featuring alleged uniforms of killed Russian soldiers reported.
Infrastructure and Services: Power fluctuations reported in Voroshylovsky and Kuybyshevsky districts of Donetsk.
Digital Conscription System: Russia has officially launched its digital conscription system (Reestr povestok) nationwide.

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Prisoner Exchange: A large-scale prisoner exchange resulted in the return of 205 Ukrainian service members. Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими held a meeting with families of missing and captured servicemen to address their concerns. Nine more children were returned from occupied territories.
Military Support: Ukrainian regional authorities are addressing requests from defenders and providing support. Fundraising efforts for military units continue actively on both sides, with specific campaigns for drones and other equipment. Russian units are conducting training exercises. Ukrainian forces are highlighting fallen heroes to maintain morale and remembrance. Apparent first combat deployment of North Korean MLRS by Russian forces. The EU is allocating almost 1.9 billion euros from frozen Russian asset profits for Ukraine's defense, including funds for Ukrainian arms manufacturers, artillery, ammunition, and air defense. Ukrainian Air Assault Forces are conducting recruitment campaigns highlighting patriotic motivation. Николаевский Ванёк and 79 окрема десантно-штурмова Таврійська бригада| Офіційний канал showcase the delivery of 11 highly mobile dune buggies to the 79th Air Assault Brigade. Ukrainian military units, such as the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, are actively promoting contract military service. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces used a drone to destroy a Russian dugout and house where enemy FPV operators were located. WarGonzo shares a video of singer Mara performing for Russian artillerymen.
Social Support: Ukrainian regional authorities are providing free food packages to residents and IDPs. Ukrainian government is addressing social support for IDPs, particularly housing (previous reporting). Координаційний штаб з питань по поводження з військовополоненими held a meeting with families of missing and captured servicemen. Nine more children were returned from occupied territories, highlighting the impact on families. Updated regulations for pension payments to IDPs and Ukrainian citizens abroad.
Medical Support: Returned Ukrainian POWs will receive medical aid and rehabilitation. Discussions on tactical medicine are ongoing (previous reporting).
Post-Conflict Recovery: Efforts to strengthen energy resilience in Zaporizhzhia, including repairing damaged substations and building new generation capacity. Return of state ownership of Rivne Automobile Repair Plant. Ceremonies in occupied Mariupol highlight Russian efforts to integrate and 'rebuild' occupied territories. Occupied Melitopol saw the opening of a statue of Stalin.

Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)

Russia: Utilizing ballistic missiles (Iskander-M), Guided Aerial Bombs (UMPK), FPV drones, Lancet drones, artillery, tanks, and potentially North Korean 240-mm MLRS M1991. Employing specific tactics for offensive operations on the Southern Donetsk direction. Conducting training exercises for tank units. Claiming successful use of FPV drones and Lancet drones to target Ukrainian equipment. Implementing increased security measures in response to drone threats. Deploying naval special forces for coastal control in Crimea. Russian military blogger provides data on the pace of advance. Russian AI is being used for propaganda. Russian forces attempted an offensive near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) with a propaganda objective. Russian forces are reportedly using tanks in shelling positions in Kherson Oblast. Russian forces claimed to have destroyed a Ukrainian BMP with troops near Tetkino. ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS alleges significant North Korean military losses in Kursk Oblast, suggesting their deployment alongside Russian forces. Military parades in Kaliningrad showcased various military equipment. Russian military display of MLRS with patriotic messaging. Discussion on historical interpretations and the conflict by Colonelcassad reflects military-aligned perspectives. North Korea has launched tactical missiles from its KN-23 MLRS systems. Russian forces have reportedly advanced over 1 km in residential areas on the eastern street of Bogatyr (Kurakhovo direction). Russian units are claiming advances near Grygorivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, and Orekhovo-Vasylivka. Russian paratroopers reportedly used a drone with banners over Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces are claiming advancement near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. Colonelcassad claims significant Russian successes on the Pokrovsk direction, including the liberation of Pisky. Russian claims of changes in the situation in Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) and Leonidivka. Russian military personnel congratulated on Victory Day from the "Special Military Operation zone." WarGonzo shares a video of singer Mara performing for Russian artillerymen.
Ukraine: Employing air defense systems, F-16s with air-to-air missiles against drones, various military units in defensive and offensive actions. Conducting prisoner exchanges. Implementing administrative changes related to mobilization and social support. Utilizing drones for reconnaissance and potentially targeting within Russia. Investigating alleged war crimes. Using various military units in counterattacks on the Zaporizhzhia direction. Ukrainian Air Force reports on the movement of enemy UAVs. Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade's drone unit showcases successful strikes against Russian logistics and personnel. Ukrainian source reports a Russian soldier committed suicide after a drone attack. Ukrainian diaspora is conducting "Mortal Regiment" counter-propaganda actions. Ukrainian Air Assault Forces are conducting recruitment campaigns. Ukrainian forces are reportedly conducting assault actions on the islands of Kherson Oblast. "Підрозділ Shadow," STERNENKO (citing "Apachi" FPV pilots of the 4th Mechanized Battalion), and Президентська бригада ЗСУ (citing the 4th Mechanized Battalion) showcase successful strike drone operations. Ukrainian forces of the 79th Air Assault Brigade are now utilizing dune buggies for enhanced mobility. Ukraine is blocking YouTube channels of sanctioned individuals as an information warfare tactic. 35 countries signed a declaration in Lviv on the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. Ukrainian military units, such as the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, are actively promoting contract military service. Ukraine is highlighting its successful use of naval drones in blocking the Russian Black Sea Fleet near Novorossiysk. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces used a drone to destroy a Russian dugout and house where enemy FPV operators were located. Ukrainian Defense Forces removed a Russian tricolor flag on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian drone attack reportedly targeted a Russian tank rushing to the parade.

Strategic Considerations (Updated)

The continued intense fighting across multiple sectors, despite the declared Russian ceasefire, underscores the ongoing and uncompromising nature of the conflict. Both sides prioritize operational gains over symbolic pauses. The specific focus on areas like Chasiv Yar and the Pokrovsk direction highlights their continued strategic importance.
The renewed Ukrainian activity in the Kursk border region, including reported ground assaults and drone attacks, represents a strategic effort to create a new axis of pressure on Russia, potentially diverting resources from other fronts or disrupting Russian logistics and security.
The deployment of North Korean MLRS by Russia is a significant strategic development, indicating deepening military cooperation between the two countries and potentially providing Russian forces with enhanced long-range artillery capabilities. This could impact the balance of power on the front lines.
The widespread and persistent Russian aerial and drone attacks across Ukraine, targeting both military and civilian infrastructure, remain a key element of their strategy to degrade Ukraine's capabilities, exert psychological pressure, and disrupt daily life. Ukraine's continued drone attacks deep within Russia serve a similar purpose and aim to impose costs on Russia domestically.
The ongoing information operations surrounding Victory Day are strategically important for both sides. Russia uses it to legitimize the conflict, mobilize domestic support, and project an image of strength and historical continuity. Ukraine and its allies counter this by highlighting Russian war crimes and challenging Russian narratives, aiming to maintain international support and expose alleged Russian hypocrisy. The opening of a statue of Stalin in occupied Melitopol is a clear attempt by Russia to impose its historical narrative and symbols on occupied territory.
The progress towards establishing a special tribunal for the crime of aggression is a significant legal and diplomatic strategic effort by Ukraine and its partners to ensure accountability for alleged Russian actions and reinforce international law.
The detention of a Russian agent in Sumy Oblast highlights the ongoing clandestine efforts by both sides to gather intelligence and conduct subversive activities behind enemy lines.
The continued diplomatic engagements, including foreign leaders attending the Moscow Victory Day parade and discussions between US and Russian envoys, indicate that diplomatic channels remain open, even if direct progress towards peace is limited. Different perspectives on the conditions for a ceasefire, as highlighted by the US envoy's statement about Putin being an obstacle, underscore the challenges in achieving a diplomatic resolution.
The updated regulations for pension payments to IDPs and those abroad reflect the Ukrainian government's strategic need to adapt administrative processes to the realities of displacement and ensure the continued well-being of its citizens affected by the conflict.
The reported exhibit in Latvia featuring alleged uniforms of killed Russian soldiers, while ethically questionable, is strategically significant as it contributes to the highly polarized information environment and reflects deep-seated historical and political tensions in the region.
Ukraine's assertion of successfully blocking the Russian Black Sea Fleet near Novorossiysk using naval drones is a claim of a significant strategic victory in asymmetric naval warfare, potentially limiting Russia's ability to project power in the Black Sea.
The nationwide launch of Russia's digital conscription system is a strategic move to potentially enhance their ability to mobilize personnel, with long-term implications for force generation.
NATO's "Mediterranean Strike - 2025" exercise, including training for countering unmanned surface vessels, demonstrates a strategic adaptation to emerging naval threats and highlights allied cooperation in maintaining maritime security.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report