Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 12:40 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational landscape continues to be dominated by the disparity between Russia's declared "festive ceasefire" and the reality of intense combat. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources report numerous violations, indicating the ceasefire primarily serves as an information operation.
Key updates and analysis from the latest messages:
Continued Information Operations and Historical Narratives: Russia continues to heavily leverage Victory Day for internal and external propaganda. Russian military bloggers are emphasizing the historical significance of the day, linking it to the current conflict and the fight against "modern Nazism." Events like the "Immortal Regiment" processions are being highlighted, including one reportedly held in Sydney, Australia, demonstrating the reach of these efforts. Footage from the Moscow parade is being used to showcase military personnel who have participated in the "special military operation," reinforcing the narrative of continuity between historical and current conflicts. Educational institutions in occupied territories are also participating in patriotic events and commemorating Victory Day, linking it to the current conflict.A Russian military blogger reflects on the causes of the current conflict, attributing it partly to unlearned lessons and mistakes over the past 30 years, providing an internal, critical perspective.TASS reports that Vladimir Putin presented the President of Kazakhstan with an award sheet for his father, leveraging historical connections for diplomatic purposes.Russian state media (TASS) is highlighting international media coverage (El País) that suggests Vladimir Putin is "not alone," citing the presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade, including commanders of North Korean units that allegedly participated in the liberation of Kursk Oblast, a claim requiring verification.TASS also reports that Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants, highlighting potential diplomatic connections.Peskov further emphasized that many leaders, including Vucic and Fico, came to Moscow despite pressure, framing their attendance as an act of heroism.Eduard Basurin, a figure from the DPR, discussed the "Heroes of the DPR" in the ranks, responding to provocations on Victory Day, the rewriting of history by "allies," "non-Russian soft power," and the impact of the Odesa fire on the DPR referendum questions, highlighting internal Russian narratives and justifications.A reception hosted by Putin for foreign delegations at the Granovitaya Palace underscored the narrative of solidarity with allies and the enduring significance of Victory Day values.Kadyrov visited a cemetery to honor fallen Chechen figures, linking their sacrifice to peace and prosperity in Chechnya.
Focus on Military Culture and Personnel: Russia is actively promoting its military veterans and highlighting their return to service. The participation of veterans from the "special military operation" in the Victory Day parade is being emphasized.Youth participation in patriotic events, including oaths and video messages, is being actively promoted in Russia, aiming to foster patriotism and potential future military service.Ukrainian military culture initiatives are also ongoing, with the "Cultural Forces" platform presenting a music album dedicated to Infantry Day and an "Alley of Defenders of Ukraine" being opened in Kyiv, emphasizing the role and sacrifice of Ukrainian infantry.Russian volunteer detachments "Fakel" and "Livadiya" from the Volunteer Corps in the SVO zone issued Victory Day greetings, reinforcing their participation in the conflict.Eduard Basurin mentioned that all "Heroes of the DPR" are in the ranks, highlighting the readiness of these forces.Chechen leader Kadyrov honored fallen Chechen fighters, including those who followed his father, linking their sacrifice to the current efforts.
Continued Efforts to Establish a Special Tribunal for Russia: Discussions on the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine are ongoing and gaining momentum. EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia.The political approval for the special tribunal was given in Lviv, with the next step at the Council of Europe in May.Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal highlighted the historical significance of the three events in Lviv: the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting, the agreement on frozen assets, and the meeting of the coalition for the special tribunal.The Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Andriy Sybiha, elaborated on the planned special tribunal, stating it will be located in The Hague and that the next formal procedural steps will take place at the Council of Europe in Luxembourg on May 13-14. He emphasized that Ukraine's goal is to see the highest leaders of the Russian Federation prosecuted by this tribunal.The head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, did not exclude the possibility of the tribunal's decisions being reached in 2026, stating that заочно (in absentia) convictions are possible, but with limitations while those concerned are in office. She stressed the importance of the signal that no one is above the law. This indicates significant progress in the international effort to hold Russia accountable for the crime of aggression, with a timeline potentially extending into 2026.
Ongoing Investigations and Anti-Corruption Efforts in Ukraine:The Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine reports preventing the illegal sale of a unique Celtic treasure in Zakarpattia Oblast and uncovering pro-Russian symbolism during the investigation. This indicates ongoing efforts by Ukrainian law enforcement to combat illicit activities and address potential internal security threats and pro-Russian sentiment.
Heightened Security and Traffic Restrictions in Moscow:Temporary traffic restrictions are in place in Moscow, particularly on sections of the MKAD and Volgogradsky Prospekt, starting at 17:00 on May 9th. This indicates heightened security measures related to Victory Day commemorations and potential large-scale events.
Continued Fundraising and Support for Military Units:Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones and other equipment for their units on the front lines, highlighting the continued need for resources despite state provisions.Colonelcassad reports on a collection effort for 200 motorcycles and the successful delivery of 30 vehicles. This underscores the reliance on volunteer support to supplement military logistics. Astra, identified as an "inoagent" in Russia, is seeking advertising revenue from outside Russia to support its independent reporting on the war, highlighting the financial challenges faced by independent media.
Information Operations Regarding International Perceptions:Russian state media (TASS) is highlighting international media coverage (El País) that suggests Vladimir Putin is "not alone," citing the presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade. This is an information operation aimed at portraying Russia as having international support despite the ongoing conflict. TASS also reports that Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants, highlighting potential diplomatic connections.Rybar notes that the US Embassy in Russia congratulated the Russian people on Victory Day, a change from previous years, suggesting a shift in public rhetoric and potential for future cooperation, while remaining cautious about the US pursuing its own interests.
Discussions on Sanctions:Sever.Realii reports that the EU plans to introduce sanctions against 28 Russian judges, prosecutors, and investigators for their alleged involvement in repression and human rights violations, particularly in cases related to Alexei Navalny and other activists. This indicates continued international pressure on Russia through targeted sanctions. The UK has imposed its largest package of sanctions since the invasion, targeting at least 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet," responsible for transporting over $24 billion worth of cargo since the beginning of 2024. This represents a significant escalation in financial pressure aimed at impacting Russia's oil revenues.
Continued Ground Combat Despite Ceasefire Claims:Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed adherence to a ceasefire since May 8th but simultaneously reports 5026 violations by Ukrainian forces, including attempts to breach the border and numerous shellings and drone strikes. They claim to be responding "mirror-like" and will act "adequately to the evolving situation." Russian military bloggers also acknowledge ongoing fighting despite the declared ceasefire.Operations in Maryino, Sumy Oblast are highlighted by Russian sources, claiming the liberation of areas previously entered by Ukrainian forces.Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of Lipovoye, Lysovka, and Troitskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic between May 3rd and 8th.Russian military bloggers report advances on the Southern Donetsk direction, clearing the southern part of Bogatyr and expanding control near Kotlyarivka and Otradne.Ukrainian sources highlight ongoing humanitarian support for residents in affected areas of Kharkiv Oblast through humanitarian hubs.Ukrainian border guards unit "Phoenix" reportedly destroyed Russian logistics, including 9 trucks and other vehicles, in Belgorod Oblast, highlighting continued cross-border strikes by Ukraine despite ceasefire claims.A Finnish source repeats a Russian claim that Ukrainian "neo-Nazis" attacked a government building in Belgorod with a kamikaze drone while Russia was observing a ceasefire.Zelenskyy participated in a meeting with the Joint Expeditionary Force format countries, stating that they are working to achieve a reliable and lasting ceasefire for at least 30 days, and that Ukraine is ready. He mentioned discussions with President Trump and European friends, agreeing on the need for a full ceasefire and reinforced sanctions if Russia prolongs the war or violates a ceasefire. He emphasized the need for Russia to agree to a ceasefire for true peace to begin. This indicates Ukraine's readiness for a temporary ceasefire but also their focus on sustained pressure and accountability for violations.
Military-Industrial Complex Activity:Two new Su-34 aircraft participated in the parade in Novosibirsk, indicating continued production and deployment of this type of aircraft.An agreement was signed in Lviv on channeling frozen Russian asset profits for Ukrainian arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry. This highlights efforts on both sides to sustain and enhance their military capabilities through production and procurement.
Naval Activity:RBC-Ukraine reports 3 Russian missile carriers present in the Black Sea with a total potential salvo of up to 14 "Kalibr" missiles, posing an increased threat.Russian vessels are moving through the Kerch Strait, with some continuing towards the Bosphorus. This indicates continued Russian naval presence and potential for missile strikes. The UK's sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet" directly target Russia's ability to export oil by sea.
Humanitarian Situation and Recovery:Ukrainian sources highlight ongoing humanitarian support for residents in affected areas of Kharkiv Oblast through humanitarian hubs.The head of the military administration in Kryvyi Rih reported on significant damage to residential buildings from "enemy attacks," including a drone attack in October 2024 that destroyed staircases and damaged apartments, and detailed the extensive repair and material assistance provided to affected residents, totaling over 622.6 million UAH, highlighting ongoing recovery efforts and the scale of damage to civilian infrastructure.
International Relationships and Alliances:TASS claiming commanders of North Korean units participated in the liberation of Kursk Oblast and were present at the Moscow parade, if true, would indicate a deeper level of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea than previously confirmed, a significant development requiring verification.TASS highlighting the presence of multiple foreign leaders at the Victory Day parade despite pressure, and Peskov calling the attendance of some an "act of heroism," is intended to counter narratives of Russia's international isolation.The meeting between Zelenskyy and the Joint Expeditionary Force format countries (UK, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Ukraine) underscores Ukraine's continued diplomatic and military engagement with its Western partners.
Internal Russian Discussions:Eduard Basurin's comments touch on internal narratives within the DPR and Russia, including the concept of "non-Russian soft power" and the impact of the Odesa fire, reflecting internal political and ideological discussions.
Chechnya's Role:Kadyrov's activities honoring fallen fighters and opening a mosque named after them highlight the continued role of Chechnya in supporting the Russian war effort and the emphasis on memorialization and religious narratives within this context.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) / Sumy Oblast (Ukraine Border) (Demidovka, Popovka, Maryino, Bobrava):Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian forces made four attempts to break through the state border in Kursk and Belgorod regions despite the declared ceasefire.Russian sources claim Russian forces have liberated the areas of Demidovka and Popovka and taken Maryino in Sumy Oblast before the ceasefire, which had been entered by Ukrainian forces.TASS claims commanders of North Korean units that participated in the liberation of Kursk Oblast were at the Moscow parade.Ukrainian border guards unit "Phoenix" reportedly destroyed Russian logistics, including 9 trucks and other vehicles, in Belgorod Oblast.A Finnish source repeats a Russian claim of a Ukrainian drone attack on a government building in Belgorod.Russian military blogger "Two Mayors" posted a video from the village of Bobrava, Kursk Oblast, featuring marine infantry from the Caspian Flotilla's 177th Separate Guards Marine Regiment, emphasizing commemoration, suggesting their presence in this area. (Previous reports, ASTRA, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, РБК-Україна, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Два майора, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), STERNENKO)
Donetsk Oblast (General, including Troitskoye, Lipovoye, Lysovka, Bogatyr, Kotlyarivka, Otradne, Chasiv Yar):Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of Lipovoye, Lysovka, and Troitskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic between May 3rd and 8th.Russian military bloggers report advances on the Southern Donetsk direction, clearing the southern part of Bogatyr and expanding control near Kotlyarivka and Otradne.Eduard Basurin, a figure from the DPR, discussed internal narratives.Ukrainian sources claim to have captured a Russian soldier at Chasiv Yar during the declared ceasefire. (Previous reports, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Басурин о главном)
Moscow (Russia):Temporary traffic restrictions are in place, particularly on sections of the MKAD and Volgogradsky Prospekt, starting at 17:00 on May 9th, indicating heightened security measures related to Victory Day commemorations and potential large-scale events.Victory Day parade took place.Putin hosted a reception for foreign delegations at the Granovitaya Palace. (Previous reports, Новости Москвы, Colonelcassad, ТАСС, Басурин о главном, Север.Реалии)
Lviv (Ukraine):EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia.An agreement was signed here on channeling a tranche of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry.The political approval for the special tribunal for the crime of aggression was given here, with the next step at the Council of Europe in May.Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal highlighted the historical significance of the three events in Lviv: the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting, the agreement on frozen assets, and the meeting of the coalition for the special tribunal. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
Zakarpattia Oblast (Ukraine):Ukrainian law enforcement has prevented the illegal sale of a unique Celtic treasure and uncovered pro-Russian symbolism during the investigation. (Previous reports, Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Sydney (Australia):An "Immortal Regiment" procession was reportedly held here, indicating the global reach of these Russian-backed information campaigns. (Previous reports, Рыбарь)
Kharkiv Oblast (General, including Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Kupyansk, Kurylivka, Kindrashivka):Ukrainian sources highlight ongoing humanitarian support for residents in affected areas through humanitarian hubs.The head of the military administration in Kryvyi Rih reported on significant damage to residential buildings from "enemy attacks" here, including a drone attack in October 2024 that destroyed staircases and damaged apartments, and detailed extensive repair and material assistance provided. (Previous reports, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Олександр Вілкул)
Donetsk People's Republic (Occupied Territories, including Krasnopolyanskaya School #1):Educational institutions are participating in patriotic events and commemorating Victory Day, linking it to the current conflict.Eduard Basurin, a figure from the DPR, discussed internal narratives. (Previous reports, Воин DV, Басурин о главном)
Chelyabinsk (Russia):Victory Day celebrations are taking place here, involving clergy and a singer. (Previous reports, Два майора)
Novosibirsk (Russia):Two new Su-34 aircraft participated in the parade here, indicating continued production and deployment of this type of aircraft.Events celebrating Victory Day using modern technology to "animate" historical photos are also taking place here. (Previous reports, Fighterbomber, Рыбарь)
The Hague (Netherlands):The planned location for the special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна)
Luxembourg:The next formal procedural steps for establishing the special tribunal for the crime of aggression are expected to take place here on May 13-14. (Previous reports, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Kerch Strait:Russian vessels are moving through the Kerch Strait, with some continuing towards the Bosphorus. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна)
Black Sea:3 Russian missile carriers are present here with a total potential salvo of up to 14 "Kalibr" missiles, posing an increased threat.The UK's sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet" target oil tankers operating here. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Voronezh (Russia):Victory Day parade included a 100-year-old veteran tanker. (Previous reports, Рыбарь)
Ivanogorod (Russia):Russia showed the Victory Parade on a screen facing the Estonian city of Narva, alongside planned evening concerts, as an information operation. (Previous reports, ASTRA)
Narva (Estonia):A banner with an image of Putin as Hitler was displayed on the Narva Castle wall facing Ivanogorod as a counter-message. (Previous reports, ASTRA)
Ekaterinburg (Russia):"Immortal Regiment" procession took place for the first time in three years. (Previous reports, WarGonzo)
Belgorod Oblast (Russia):Ukrainian border guards unit "Phoenix" reportedly destroyed Russian logistics, including 9 trucks and other vehicles, here.A Finnish source repeats a Russian claim of a Ukrainian drone attack on a government building here. (Previous reports, STERNENKO, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia))
Kryvyi Rih (Ukraine):The head of the military administration reported on significant damage to residential buildings from "enemy attacks," including a drone attack in October 2024, and detailed extensive repair and material assistance provided to affected residents. (Previous reports, Олександр Вілкул)
Grozny (Chechnya, Russia):A new mosque is opening, named in honor of fallen Chechen fighters who sacrificed their lives. (Previous reports, Kadyrov_95)
Akhmat-Yurt (Chechnya, Russia):Kadyrov visited a cemetery here to honor fallen Chechen figures. (Previous reports, Kadyrov_95)
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity:Russian Ministry of Defense reports 3502 drone strikes and munitions drops by Ukrainian units since the beginning of the ceasefire.Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones.Ukrainian border guards unit "Phoenix" reportedly destroyed Russian logistics, including 9 trucks and other vehicles, using drones in Belgorod Oblast.A Finnish source repeats a Russian claim of a Ukrainian drone attack on a government building in Belgorod.Ukrainian unit "Azov" of the National Guard reportedly used FPV drones to destroy 54 Russian communication systems, repeaters, and an "Orlan" UAV launch site, highlighting the use of drones for electronic warfare and targeting support infrastructure. (Previous reports, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, STERNENKO, Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Artillery and MLRS Activity:Russian Ministry of Defense reports 1455 shelling attacks by tube artillery, tanks, and mortars and 23 attacks with MLRS by Ukrainian units since the beginning of the ceasefire. (Previous reports, MoD Russia)
Naval Activity:RBC-Ukraine reports 3 Russian missile carriers present in the Black Sea with a total potential salvo of up to 14 "Kalibr" missiles, posing an increased threat.Russian vessels are moving through the Kerch Strait, with some continuing towards the Bosphorus.The UK has imposed sanctions on at least 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet," impacting Russia's seaborne oil exports. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна)
Aviation:Two new Su-34 aircraft participated in the parade in Novosibirsk, indicating continued production and deployment of this type of aircraft. (Previous reports, Fighterbomber)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs):Russian Ministry of Defense reports shooting down 32 JDAM guided aerial bombs in the past week.Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) towards Sumy Oblast. (Previous reports, MoD Russia, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine)
Missile Activity:Russian Ministry of Defense reports shooting down 14 HIMARS MLRS projectiles, eight Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and nine Neptune long-range guided missiles in the past week.3 Russian missile carriers are present in the Black Sea with a total potential salvo of up to 14 "Kalibr" missiles, posing an increased threat. (Previous reports, MoD Russia, РБК-Україна)
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Victory Day Narratives:Russia continues to heavily leverage Victory Day for internal and external propaganda, linking it to the current conflict and the fight against "modern Nazism."Events like the "Immortal Regiment" processions are being highlighted, including one reportedly held in Sydney, Australia, and in Ekaterinburg.Footage from the Moscow parade is being used to showcase military personnel who have participated in the "special military operation."Educational institutions in occupied territories are also participating in patriotic events and commemorating Victory Day.Russian military blogger reflects on the causes of the current conflict, providing an internal, critical perspective.TASS reports that Vladimir Putin presented the President of Kazakhstan with an award sheet for his father, leveraging historical connections for diplomatic purposes.Russian state media highlights international media coverage suggesting Putin is "not alone," citing the presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade, including claimed commanders of North Korean units.TASS reports Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants.Peskov emphasized that many leaders, including Vucic and Fico, came to Moscow despite pressure.Eduard Basurin discussed responding to provocations on Victory Day.A reception hosted by Putin for foreign delegations underscored the narrative of solidarity with allies and the enduring significance of Victory Day values.Rybar notes the US Embassy in Russia congratulated the Russian people on Victory Day, indicating a shift in public rhetoric.Kadyrov honored fallen Chechen figures and opened a mosque named after them, linking their sacrifice to the current efforts. (Previous reports, Рыбарь, Colonelcassad, Воин DV, Филолог в засаде, ТАСС, WarGonzo, ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Басурин о главном, Север.Реалии, Kadyrov_95)
Special Tribunal for Russia:EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia.The political approval for the special tribunal was given in Lviv, with the next step at the Council of Europe in May.Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal highlighted the historical significance of the events in Lviv, including the meeting of the coalition for the special tribunal.The Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Andriy Sybiha, elaborated on the planned special tribunal, stating it will be located in The Hague and that the next formal procedural steps will take place at the Council of Europe in Luxembourg on May 13-14. He emphasized that Ukraine's goal is to see the highest leaders of the Russian Federation prosecuted by this tribunal.The head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, stated that заочно (in absentia) convictions are possible, with potential decisions in 2026, emphasizing that no one is above the law.Reuters reports that leaders of 20 out of 27 EU countries supported the creation of a tribunal. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
EU-Ukraine Relations:EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia.An agreement was signed in Lviv on channeling a tranche of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry.The political approval for the special tribunal was given in Lviv, with the next step at the Council of Europe in May.Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal highlighted the historical significance of the events in Lviv, including the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting and the agreement on frozen assets.Reuters reports that leaders of 20 out of 27 EU countries supported the creation of a tribunal. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Sanctions:Sever.Realii reports that the EU plans to introduce sanctions against 28 Russian judges, prosecutors, and investigators for their alleged involvement in repression and human rights violations.The UK has imposed its largest package of sanctions since the invasion, targeting at least 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet," responsible for transporting over $24 billion worth of cargo since the beginning of 2024. (Previous reports, Север.Реалии, РБК-Україна)
International Perceptions of Russia:Russian state media highlights international media coverage suggesting Putin is "not alone," citing the presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade.Peskov emphasized that many leaders, including Vucic and Fico, came to Moscow despite pressure.Rybar notes the US Embassy in Russia congratulated the Russian people on Victory Day. (Previous reports, ТАСС, ТАСС, Рыбарь)
US-Russia Relations:TASS reports Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants, highlighting potential diplomatic connections.Rybar notes the US Embassy in Russia congratulated the Russian people on Victory Day, indicating a shift in public rhetoric and potential for future cooperation.Colonelcassad also reported on the exchange of greetings between Putin and Trump. (Previous reports, ТАСС, Рыбарь, Colonelcassad)
Kazakhstan-Russia Relations:TASS reports that Vladimir Putin presented the President of Kazakhstan with an award sheet for his father, leveraging historical connections for diplomatic purposes. (Previous reports, ТАСС)
Joint Expeditionary Force:Zelenskiy participated in a meeting with the Joint Expeditionary Force format countries (UK, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Ukraine), discussing achieving a ceasefire and reinforced sanctions. (Previous reports, Zelenskiy / Official)
Serbia and Slovakia:Peskov called the arrival of Serbian President Vucic and Slovak Prime Minister Fico in Moscow for Victory Day an act of heroism. (Previous reports, ТАСС)
Moldova:Eduard Basurin discussed "allies" in the "underbelly" rewriting history, potentially referencing Moldova. (Previous reports, Басурин о главном)
North Korea-Russia Relations:TASS claims commanders of North Korean units that participated in the liberation of Kursk Oblast were at the Moscow parade, a claim requiring verification. (Previous reports, ТАСС)
Romania:A Russian military blogger "ARCHANGEL SPETSNAZ" discusses the Romanian presidential race, claiming a frontrunner is demanding compensation for transferred Patriot systems and stating Romania will not give more money to Ukraine, suggesting potential shifts in Romania's stance and potential for political destabilization efforts. (Previous reports, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Information Operations:Russian military bloggers are emphasizing the historical significance of Victory Day, linking it to the current conflict and the fight against "modern Nazism."Events like the "Immortal Regiment" processions are being highlighted, including one reportedly held in Sydney, Australia, and in Ekaterinburg.Footage from the Moscow parade is being used to showcase military personnel who have participated in the "special military operation."Educational institutions in occupied territories are also participating in patriotic events and commemorating Victory Day.Russian military blogger reflects on the causes of the current conflict, providing an internal, critical perspective.Russian state media highlights international media coverage suggesting Putin is "not alone."TASS reports Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants.Peskov emphasized that many leaders, including Vucic and Fico, came to Moscow despite pressure.Eduard Basurin discussed responding to provocations on Victory Day, the rewriting of history by "allies," "non-Russian soft power," and the impact of the Odesa fire.A reception hosted by Putin for foreign delegations underscored the narrative of solidarity with allies and the enduring significance of Victory Day values.Rybar notes the US Embassy in Russia congratulated the Russian people on Victory Day.Kadyrov honored fallen Chechen figures and opened a mosque named after them, linking their sacrifice to the current efforts.Russian military blogger "Two Mayors" posted a video featuring marine infantry from the Caspian Flotilla in Bobrava, Kursk Oblast, emphasizing commemoration.Russian volunteer detachments "Fakel" and "Livadiya" from the Volunteer Corps in the SVO zone issued Victory Day greetings. (Previous reports, Рыбарь, Colonelcassad, Воин DV, Филолог в засаде, ТАСС, WarGonzo, ТАСС, ASTRA, Два майора, Басурин о главном, Север.Реалии, Kadyrov_95)
Military Readiness and Propaganda:Footage from the Moscow parade is being used to showcase military personnel who have participated in the "special military operation."Two new Su-34 aircraft participated in the parade in Novosibirsk, indicating continued production and deployment of this type of aircraft.Victory Day celebrations are taking place in various cities.Eduard Basurin mentioned that all "Heroes of the DPR" are in the ranks.Russian volunteer detachments "Fakel" and "Livadiya" from the Volunteer Corps in the SVO zone issued Victory Day greetings.Russian military blogger "Two Mayors" posted a video featuring marine infantry from the Caspian Flotilla in Bobrava, Kursk Oblast. (Previous reports, Colonelcassad, Fighterbomber, Два майора, AV БогомаZ, Басурин о главном, ТАСС)
Security Measures:Temporary traffic restrictions are in place in Moscow, particularly on sections of the MKAD and Volgogradsky Prospekt, starting at 17:00 on May 9th, indicating heightened security measures related to Victory Day commemorations and potential large-scale events. (Previous reports, Новости Москвы)
Fundraising and Support:Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones and other equipment for their units on the front lines.Colonelcassad reports on a collection effort for 200 motorcycles and the successful delivery of 30 vehicles. (Previous reports, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Legal and Repression:Sever.Realii reports that the EU plans to introduce sanctions against 28 Russian judges, prosecutors, and investigators for their alleged involvement in repression and human rights violations. (Previous reports, Север.Реалии)
Political Diplomacy:TASS reports that Vladimir Putin presented the President of Kazakhstan with an award sheet for his father, leveraging historical connections for diplomatic purposes.TASS reports Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants.Peskov emphasized that many leaders, including Vucic and Fico, came to Moscow despite pressure.A reception hosted by Putin for foreign delegations underscored the narrative of solidarity with allies. (Previous reports, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad)
Internal Criticism:A Russian military blogger reflects on the causes of the current conflict, attributing it partly to unlearned lessons and mistakes over the past 30 years, providing an internal, critical perspective. (Previous reports, Филолог в засаде)
Chechnya's Role:Kadyrov's activities honoring fallen fighters and opening a mosque named after them highlight the continued role of Chechnya in supporting the Russian war effort and the emphasis on memorialization and religious narratives within this context. (Previous reports, Kadyrov_95)
Financial Challenges for Independent Media:Astra, identified as an "inoagent" in Russia, is seeking advertising revenue from outside Russia to support its independent reporting on the war, highlighting the financial challenges faced by independent media within Russia due to government pressure. (Previous reports, ASTRA)
Internal Discussions:Eduard Basurin's comments touch on internal narratives within the DPR and Russia, including the concept of "non-Russian soft power" and the impact of the Odesa fire, reflecting internal political and ideological discussions. (Previous reports, Басурин о главном)
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Financial Support:An agreement was signed in Lviv on channeling a tranche of profits from frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry. This provides a new avenue for financing Ukraine's defense capabilities. The head of the military administration in Kryvyi Rih reported on significant material assistance provided to residents affected by "enemy attacks," totaling over 622.6 million UAH. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна, Олександр Вілкул)
Military Aid:An agreement was signed in Lviv on channeling a tranche of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна)
Humanitarian Situation:Ukrainian sources highlight ongoing humanitarian support for residents in affected areas of Kharkiv Oblast through humanitarian hubs.The head of the military administration in Kryvyi Rih reported on significant damage to residential buildings from "enemy attacks" and detailed extensive repair and material assistance provided to affected residents. (Previous reports, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, Олександр Вілкул)
Ukrainian Military Culture and Commemoration:The "Cultural Forces" platform has presented a music album dedicated to Infantry Day, featuring songs by active servicemen.The "Alley of Defenders of Ukraine" has been opened in Kyiv on Infantry Day, with the first commemorative sign dedicated to Ukrainian infantrymen. (Previous reports, Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Post-Conflict Recovery:The head of the military administration in Kryvyi Rih reported on extensive repair and material assistance provided to residents affected by "enemy attacks," including structural repairs to a damaged residential building, highlighting ongoing recovery efforts for civilian infrastructure. (Previous reports, Олександр Вілкул)
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russia: Continuing large-scale drone and missile attacks, including ballistic missiles. Maintaining intense ground pressure on multiple axes, particularly Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka, with claimed tactical advances and liberation of settlements (Troitskoye) and significant advances on the Southern Donetsk direction. Conducting offensive actions in Kursk Oblast with claimed success in repelling Ukrainian attempts, including armored assaults and capture of POWs (conflicting reports on territorial control), and using FAB aviation bombs and operational-tactical aviation. Employing aviation, guided aerial bombs (KABs, FAB-500s), MLRS, and artillery extensively. Claiming destruction of Ukrainian equipment with drones (FPV and Lancet), including an American M-113 APC and a Ukrainian BMR-2 demining vehicle. Leveraging military bloggers for reporting, fundraising (requesting donations for drones, thermal imagers), and information operations, including showcasing awards ceremonies and creating films about historical events. Adapting counter-UAV tactics by advising disabling mobile internet in regions. Actively showcasing claimed successes, including destruction of Western equipment with FPV drones. Utilizing army aviation for strikes. Employing unconventional tactics such as using divers for infiltration (detected and destroyed by Ukraine) and potentially donkeys with EW systems according to Ukrainian sources highlighting Russian propaganda. Introducing a new qualification badge for assault troops. Threatening "Oreshnik" missile strike on Kyiv if Ukraine stages provocations on May 9th. Experiencing internal security incidents and taking action against an Uzbek diaspora organization. Presenting state awards to military personnel near the line of contact. Conducting intense fighting in the Kursk border region, claiming to repel Ukrainian attacks, destroy equipment (demining vehicle, armored vehicles), and liquidate Ukrainian forces in Tetkino, and claiming capture of Ukrainian assault troops, including females. Russian military bloggers claim to have shot down Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones with FPV drones. Russian military bloggers are training operators of heavy hexacopter drones, including a captured Ukrainian "Vampire". Russian forces claim an advance of 600 meters west of Makeevka. Russian forces claim to be destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry near Kupyansk using FPV drones. Potential Ukrainian landing activity near the Antonovsky Bridge is being countered with mortar, UAV, and artillery fire, and claimed use of aviation with KABs. Russian military blogger reports on counter-drone project "Hammer of Witches" targeting Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones, including shooting them down and repurposing captured ones. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, using a comprehensive approach including artillery, MLRS, and drones. Russian forces, according to a military blogger, claim continued fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks on the Southern Donetsk direction despite a declared ceasefire, with specific claimed Russian advances and destruction of Ukrainian assets. TASS claims commanders of North Korean units that participated in the liberation of Kursk Oblast were at the Moscow parade.Russian military blogger "Two Mayors" posted a video from the village of Bobrava, Kursk Oblast, featuring marine infantry from the Caspian Flotilla's 177th Separate Guards Marine Regiment, suggesting their presence in this area.Russian volunteer detachments "Fakel" and "Livadiya" from the Volunteer Corps in the SVO zone issued Victory Day greetings.
Ukraine: Conducting renewed ground offensive actions in Kursk Oblast, reportedly involving armor and armored vehicles and mobile groups on quadricycles, and attempting to take Tetkino at any cost according to Russian sources (conflicting reports on territorial control), resulting in claimed destruction of a demining vehicle and armored vehicles by Russia. Utilizing drones for deep strikes into Russian territory targeting industrial and military facilities, including military airfields (Kubinka and Shaikovka), and for tactical engagements (FPV drones), claiming destruction of Russian equipment (BMP-3, SPG, cannons, trucks) and targeting Russian shelters and UAV control points. Successfully conducting a special operation using GUR forces and FPV drones to rescue captured comrades and eliminate Russian soldiers. Repelling numerous Russian ground assaults on key axes, including facing 117 total engagements yesterday. Maintaining defenses against Russian aerial and missile attacks, with successful interceptions reported, including a ballistic missile over Kyiv, and detecting rapid-moving targets in Sumy and Poltava Oblasts. Reporting on estimated daily Russian losses. Potentially deploying elite drone units to contested areas according to Russian claims. Continuing fundraising efforts for FPV drones and other equipment (thermal ponchos), with successful large-scale fundraising reported. Actively commemorating fallen soldiers and military units. Demonstrating tactical medical preparedness. Highlighting Russian casualties inflicted by Ukrainian units. Reporting on Russian activity and casualties in specific oblasts (Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Bryansk). Improving medical rehabilitation facilities for military personnel. Conducting targeted strikes on individuals associated with Russian-installed administrations, as reported by Russia in Tarasivka, Kherson Oblast. Liberated a forest area near Lyptsi, Kharkiv Oblast, inflicting over 1500 enemy casualties and destroying equipment. Conducting special operations in the enemy rear, including capturing 6 Russian soldiers. Potential Ukrainian landing activity near the Antonovsky bridge, with ongoing intense fighting, artillery preparation, and drone strikes on the Kinburn Spit and activity near the Tenderivska Spit, according to Russian sources. Training territorial defense forces with ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns. Pursuing legal accountability for war crimes and collaborating with international partners. Engaging with the Coordination Headquarters for Treatment of Prisoners of War regarding captured personnel. Training military personnel in tactical medicine (MARCH protocol). Experiencing civilian casualties from Russian drone attacks, including an FPV drone attack in Zaporizhzhia, and from shelling in Kherson Oblast. Claiming destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 and quadricycles using FPV drones. Claiming to have captured a Russian soldier at Chasiv Yar during the declared ceasefire. Ukrainian aviation is reportedly working on the southern direction, including MiG-29s, targeting personnel, command posts, and boats. Ukrainian Air Force warns of Russian tactical aviation activity on the northeastern direction. Lithuania's decision to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention signals potential future use of anti-personnel mines for defense against threats from Russia and Belarus. Ukrainian 108th battalion "Wolves of Da Vinci" claims destruction of a Russian assault group near Pokrovsk using drones. Russian forces, according to a military blogger, claim continued fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks on the Southern Donetsk direction despite a declared ceasefire. Ukrainian border guards unit "Phoenix" reportedly destroyed Russian logistics, including 9 trucks and other vehicles, using drones in Belgorod Oblast.Ukrainian unit "Azov" of the National Guard reportedly used FPV drones to destroy 54 Russian communication systems, repeaters, and an "Orlan" UAV launch site.Zelenskyy stated Ukraine is ready for a reliable and lasting ceasefire for at least 30 days.
Rapid Support Forces (Sudan): Reportedly using kamikaze drones against Port Sudan.
M23 Movement (DRC): Reportedly continuing attacks despite agreements.
Iran: Publishing videos of US and coalition actions in the Persian Gulf.
Lithuania: Parliament decides to withdraw from the Ottawa Convention prohibiting anti-personnel mines.
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
