Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 12:10 UTC)
Updated Situation
The operational landscape continues to be dominated by the disparity between Russia's declared "festive ceasefire" and the reality of intense combat. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources report numerous violations, indicating the ceasefire primarily serves as an information operation.
Key updates and analysis from the latest messages:
Continued Information Operations and Historical Narratives: Russia continues to heavily leverage Victory Day for internal and external propaganda. Russian military bloggers are emphasizing the historical significance of the day, linking it to the current conflict and the fight against "modern Nazism." Events like the "Immortal Regiment" processions are being highlighted, including one reportedly held in Sydney, Australia, demonstrating the reach of these efforts. Footage from the Moscow parade is being used to showcase military personnel who have participated in the "special military operation," reinforcing the narrative of continuity between historical and current conflicts. Educational institutions in occupied territories are also participating in patriotic events and commemorating Victory Day, linking it to the current conflict.A Russian military blogger reflects on the causes of the current conflict, attributing it partly to unlearned lessons and mistakes over the past 30 years, providing an internal, critical perspective.TASS reports that Vladimir Putin presented the President of Kazakhstan with an award sheet for his father, leveraging historical connections for diplomatic purposes.
Focus on Military Culture and Personnel: Russia is actively promoting its military veterans and highlighting their return to service. The participation of veterans from the "special military operation" in the Victory Day parade is being emphasized.Youth participation in patriotic events, including oaths and video messages, is being actively promoted in Russia, aiming to foster patriotism and potential future military service.Ukrainian military culture initiatives are also ongoing, with the "Cultural Forces" platform presenting a music album dedicated to Infantry Day and an "Alley of Defenders of Ukraine" being opened in Kyiv, emphasizing the role and sacrifice of Ukrainian infantry.
Continued Efforts to Establish a Special Tribunal for Russia: Discussions on the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine are ongoing and gaining momentum. EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia.The political approval for the special tribunal was given in Lviv, with the next step at the Council of Europe in May.Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal highlighted the historical significance of the three events in Lviv: the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting, the agreement on frozen assets, and the meeting of the coalition for the special tribunal.The Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Andriy Sybiha, elaborated on the planned special tribunal, stating it will be located in The Hague and that the next formal procedural steps will take place at the Council of Europe in Luxembourg on May 13-14. He emphasized that Ukraine's goal is to see the highest leaders of the Russian Federation prosecuted by this tribunal. This indicates significant progress in the international effort to hold Russia accountable for the crime of aggression.
Ongoing Investigations and Anti-Corruption Efforts in Ukraine:The Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine reports preventing the illegal sale of a unique Celtic treasure in Zakarpattia Oblast and uncovering pro-Russian symbolism during the investigation. This indicates ongoing efforts by Ukrainian law enforcement to combat illicit activities and address potential internal security threats and pro-Russian sentiment.
Heightened Security and Traffic Restrictions in Moscow:Temporary traffic restrictions are in place in Moscow, particularly on sections of the MKAD and Volgogradsky Prospekt, starting at 17:00 on May 9th. This indicates heightened security measures related to Victory Day commemorations and potential large-scale events.
Continued Fundraising and Support for Military Units:Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones and other equipment for their units on the front lines, highlighting the continued need for resources despite state provisions.Colonelcassad reports on a collection effort for 200 motorcycles and the successful delivery of 30 vehicles. This underscores the reliance on volunteer support to supplement military logistics.
Information Operations Regarding International Perceptions:Russian state media (TASS) is highlighting international media coverage (El País) that suggests Vladimir Putin is "not alone," citing the presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade. This is an information operation aimed at portraying Russia as having international support despite the ongoing conflict. TASS also reports that Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants, highlighting potential diplomatic connections.
Discussions on Sanctions:Sever.Realii reports that the EU plans to introduce sanctions against 28 Russian judges, prosecutors, and investigators for their alleged involvement in repression and human rights violations, particularly in cases related to Alexei Navalny and other activists. This indicates continued international pressure on Russia through targeted sanctions.
Continued Ground Combat Despite Ceasefire Claims:Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed adherence to a ceasefire since May 8th but simultaneously reports 5026 violations by Ukrainian forces, including attempts to breach the border and numerous shellings and drone strikes. They claim to be responding "mirror-like" and will act "adequately to the evolving situation." Russian military bloggers also acknowledge ongoing fighting despite the declared ceasefire.Operations in Maryino, Sumy Oblast are highlighted by Russian sources, claiming the liberation of areas previously entered by Ukrainian forces.Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of Lipovoye, Lysovka, and Troitskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic between May 3rd and 8th.Russian military bloggers report advances on the Southern Donetsk direction, clearing the southern part of Bogatyr and expanding control near Kotlyarivka and Otradne.Ukrainian sources highlight ongoing humanitarian support for residents in affected areas of Kharkiv Oblast through humanitarian hubs.
Military-Industrial Complex Activity:Two new Su-34 aircraft participated in the parade in Novosibirsk, indicating continued production and deployment of this type of aircraft.An agreement was signed in Lviv on channeling frozen Russian asset profits for Ukrainian arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry. This highlights efforts on both sides to sustain and enhance their military capabilities through production and procurement.
Naval Activity:RBC-Ukraine reports 3 Russian missile carriers present in the Black Sea with a total potential salvo of up to 14 "Kalibr" missiles, posing an increased threat.Russian vessels are moving through the Kerch Strait, with some continuing towards the Bosphorus. This indicates continued Russian naval presence and potential for missile strikes.
Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) / Sumy Oblast (Ukraine Border) (Demidovka, Popovka, Maryino):Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian forces made four attempts to break through the state border in Kursk and Belgorod regions despite the declared ceasefire.Russian sources claim Russian forces have liberated the areas of Demidovka and Popovka and taken Maryino in Sumy Oblast before the ceasefire, which had been entered by Ukrainian forces. (Previous reports, ASTRA, ТАСС, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Donetsk Oblast (General, including Troitskoye, Lipovoye, Lysovka, Bogatyr, Kotlyarivka, Otradne):Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of Lipovoye, Lysovka, and Troitskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic between May 3rd and 8th.Russian military bloggers report advances on the Southern Donetsk direction, clearing the southern part of Bogatyr and expanding control near Kotlyarivka and Otradne. (Previous reports, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad)
Moscow (Russia):Temporary traffic restrictions are in place, particularly on sections of the MKAD and Volgogradsky Prospekt, starting at 17:00 on May 9th, indicating heightened security measures related to Victory Day commemorations and potential large-scale events. (Previous reports, Новости Москвы)
Lviv (Ukraine):EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia.An agreement was signed here on channeling a tranche of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry.The political approval for the special tribunal for the crime of aggression was given here, with the next step at the Council of Europe in May.Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal highlighted the historical significance of the three events in Lviv: the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting, the agreement on frozen assets, and the meeting of the coalition for the special tribunal. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
Zakarpattia Oblast (Ukraine):Ukrainian law enforcement has prevented the illegal sale of a unique Celtic treasure and uncovered pro-Russian symbolism during the investigation. (Previous reports, Офіс Генерального прокурора)
Sydney (Australia):An "Immortal Regiment" procession was reportedly held here, indicating the global reach of these Russian-backed information campaigns. (Previous reports, Рыбарь)
Kharkiv Oblast (General, including Vovchansk, Lyptsi, Kupyansk, Kurylivka, Kindrashivka):Ukrainian sources highlight ongoing humanitarian support for residents in affected areas through humanitarian hubs. (Previous reports, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Donetsk People's Republic (Occupied Territories, including Krasnopolyanskaya School #1):Educational institutions are participating in patriotic events and commemorating Victory Day. (Previous reports, Воин DV)
Chelyabinsk (Russia):Victory Day celebrations are taking place here, involving clergy and a singer. (Previous reports, Два майора)
Novosibirsk (Russia):Two new Su-34 aircraft participated in the parade here, indicating continued production and deployment of this type of aircraft.Events celebrating Victory Day using modern technology to "animate" historical photos are also taking place here. (Previous reports, Fighterbomber, Рыбарь)
The Hague (Netherlands):The planned location for the special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна)
Luxembourg:The next formal procedural steps for establishing the special tribunal for the crime of aggression are expected to take place here on May 13-14. (Previous reports, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
Kerch Strait:Russian vessels are moving through the Kerch Strait, with some continuing towards the Bosphorus. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна)
Black Sea:3 Russian missile carriers are present here with a total potential salvo of up to 14 "Kalibr" missiles, posing an increased threat. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна)
Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):
Drone Activity:Russian Ministry of Defense reports 3502 drone strikes and munitions drops by Ukrainian units since the beginning of the ceasefire.Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones. (Previous reports, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Artillery and MLRS Activity:Russian Ministry of Defense reports 1455 shelling attacks by tube artillery, tanks, and mortars and 23 attacks with MLRS by Ukrainian units since the beginning of the ceasefire. (Previous reports, MoD Russia)
Naval Activity:RBC-Ukraine reports 3 Russian missile carriers present in the Black Sea with a total potential salvo of up to 14 "Kalibr" missiles, posing an increased threat.Russian vessels are moving through the Kerch Strait, with some continuing towards the Bosphorus. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна)
Aviation:Two new Su-34 aircraft participated in the parade in Novosibirsk, indicating continued production and deployment of this type of aircraft. (Previous reports, Fighterbomber)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs):Russian Ministry of Defense reports shooting down 32 JDAM guided aerial bombs in the past week. (Previous reports, MoD Russia)
Missile Activity:Russian Ministry of Defense reports shooting down 14 HIMARS MLRS projectiles, eight Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and nine Neptune long-range guided missiles in the past week.3 Russian missile carriers are present in the Black Sea with a total potential salvo of up to 14 "Kalibr" missiles, posing an increased threat. (Previous reports, MoD Russia, РБК-Україна)
Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):
Victory Day Narratives:Russia continues to heavily leverage Victory Day for internal and external propaganda, linking it to the current conflict and the fight against "modern Nazism."Events like the "Immortal Regiment" processions are being highlighted, including one reportedly held in Sydney, Australia.Footage from the Moscow parade is being used to showcase military personnel who have participated in the "special military operation."Educational institutions in occupied territories are also participating in patriotic events and commemorating Victory Day.Russian military blogger reflects on the causes of the current conflict, providing an internal, critical perspective.TASS reports that Vladimir Putin presented the President of Kazakhstan with an award sheet for his father, leveraging historical connections for diplomatic purposes.Russian state media highlights international media coverage suggesting Putin is "not alone."TASS reports Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants. (Previous reports, Рыбарь, Colonelcassad, Воин DV, Филолог в засаде, ТАСС, WarGonzo, ТАСС, ASTRA)
Special Tribunal for Russia:EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia.The political approval for the special tribunal was given in Lviv, with the next step at the Council of Europe in May.Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal highlighted the historical significance of the events in Lviv, including the meeting of the coalition for the special tribunal.The Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Andriy Sybiha, elaborated on the planned special tribunal, stating it will be located in The Hague and that the next formal procedural steps will take place at the Council of Europe in Luxembourg on May 13-14. He emphasized that Ukraine's goal is to see the highest leaders of the Russian Federation prosecuted by this tribunal. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
EU-Ukraine Relations:EU Foreign Ministers have approved the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia.An agreement was signed in Lviv on channeling a tranche of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry.The political approval for the special tribunal was given in Lviv, with the next step at the Council of Europe in May.Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal highlighted the historical significance of the events in Lviv, including the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting and the agreement on frozen assets. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна)
Sanctions:Sever.Realii reports that the EU plans to introduce sanctions against 28 Russian judges, prosecutors, and investigators for their alleged involvement in repression and human rights violations. (Previous reports, Север.Реалии)
International Perceptions of Russia:Russian state media highlights international media coverage suggesting Putin is "not alone," citing the presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade. (Previous reports, ТАСС)
US-Russia Relations:TASS reports Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants, highlighting potential diplomatic connections. (Previous reports, ТАСС)
Kazakhstan-Russia Relations:TASS reports that Vladimir Putin presented the President of Kazakhstan with an award sheet for his father, leveraging historical connections for diplomatic purposes. (Previous reports, ТАСС)
Internal Russian Issues (Updated):
Information Operations:Russian military bloggers are emphasizing the historical significance of Victory Day, linking it to the current conflict and the fight against "modern Nazism."Events like the "Immortal Regiment" processions are being highlighted, including one reportedly held in Sydney, Australia.Footage from the Moscow parade is being used to showcase military personnel who have participated in the "special military operation."Educational institutions in occupied territories are also participating in patriotic events and commemorating Victory Day.Russian military blogger reflects on the causes of the current conflict, providing an internal, critical perspective.Russian state media highlights international media coverage suggesting Putin is "not alone."TASS reports Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants. (Previous reports, Рыбарь, Colonelcassad, Воин DV, Филолог в засаде, ТАСС, WarGonzo, ТАСС, ASTRA)
Military Readiness and Propaganda:Footage from the Moscow parade is being used to showcase military personnel who have participated in the "special military operation."Two new Su-34 aircraft participated in the parade in Novosibirsk, indicating continued production and deployment of this type of aircraft.Victory Day celebrations are taking place in various cities. (Previous reports, Colonelcassad, Fighterbomber, Два майора, AV БогомаZ)
Security Measures:Temporary traffic restrictions are in place in Moscow, particularly on sections of the MKAD and Volgogradsky Prospekt, starting at 17:00 on May 9th, indicating heightened security measures related to Victory Day commemorations and potential large-scale events. (Previous reports, Новости Москвы)
Fundraising and Support:Russian military bloggers are conducting fundraising efforts for drones and other equipment for their units on the front lines.Colonelcassad reports on a collection effort for 200 motorcycles and the successful delivery of 30 vehicles. (Previous reports, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Legal and Repression:Sever.Realii reports that the EU plans to introduce sanctions against 28 Russian judges, prosecutors, and investigators for their alleged involvement in repression and human rights violations. (Previous reports, Север.Реалии)
Political Diplomacy:TASS reports that Vladimir Putin presented the President of Kazakhstan with an award sheet for his father, leveraging historical connections for diplomatic purposes.TASS reports Putin and Trump exchanged Victory Day greetings through assistants. (Previous reports, ТАСС)
Internal Criticism:A Russian military blogger reflects on the causes of the current conflict, attributing it partly to unlearned lessons and mistakes over the past 30 years, providing an internal, critical perspective. (Previous reports, Филолог в засаде)
Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)
Financial Support:An agreement was signed in Lviv on channeling a tranche of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry. This provides a new avenue for financing Ukraine's defense capabilities. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна)
Military Aid:An agreement was signed in Lviv on channeling a tranche of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry. (Previous reports, РБК-Україна)
Humanitarian Situation:Ukrainian sources highlight ongoing humanitarian support for residents in affected areas of Kharkiv Oblast through humanitarian hubs. (Previous reports, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА)
Ukrainian Military Culture and Commemoration:The "Cultural Forces" platform has presented a music album dedicated to Infantry Day, featuring songs by active servicemen.The "Alley of Defenders of Ukraine" has been opened in Kyiv on Infantry Day, with the first commemorative sign dedicated to Ukrainian infantrymen. (Previous reports, Оперативний ЗСУ, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Force Composition and Tactics (Updated)
Russia:Russian Ministry of Defense reports claimed adherence to a ceasefire but simultaneously reports 5026 violations by Ukrainian forces, including attempts to breach the border and numerous shellings and drone strikes. They claim to be responding "mirror-like" and will act "adequately to the evolving situation." Russian military bloggers also acknowledge ongoing fighting despite the declared ceasefire.Russian sources claim Russian forces have liberated the areas of Demidovka and Popovka and taken Maryino in Sumy Oblast before the ceasefire.Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of Lipovoye, Lysovka, and Troitskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic between May 3rd and 8th.Russian military bloggers report advances on the Southern Donetsk direction, clearing the southern part of Bogatyr and expanding control near Kotlyarivka and Otradne.Two new Su-34 aircraft participated in the parade in Novosibirsk, indicating continued production and deployment of this type of aircraft. (Previous reports, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Fighterbomber)
Ukraine:Russian Ministry of Defense reports 5026 violations by Ukrainian forces since the beginning of the ceasefire, including attempts to breach the border and numerous shellings and drone strikes.Ukrainian sources highlight ongoing humanitarian support for residents in affected areas of Kharkiv Oblast through humanitarian hubs.An agreement was signed in Lviv on channeling a tranche of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for arms procurement from EU countries, specifically from Denmark, France, and Italy, aiming to activate Ukraine's defense industry. (Previous reports, MoD Russia, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, РБК-Україна)
Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.
