Sitrep 2025-05-09 07:46:01

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 07:40 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be defined by intense ground combat, particularly around Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka, with new Russian claims of advances east of Pokrovsk. Despite a declared Russian ceasefire for Victory Day, fighting persists in contested areas, including the Kursk border region and near the Antonovsky Bridge. Russian aerial activity, encompassing widespread drone and ballistic missile launches, continues across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, leading to ongoing air raid alerts, with a new report of a Ukrainian drone attack on the Belgorod government building. Ukrainian drone attacks are still targeting Russian industrial and military facilities, leading to temporary disruptions at airports and reported widespread internet outages in Russia. Sadly, civilian casualties are still being reported on both sides, with a fatality confirmed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to a drone attack, injuries in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from recent shelling, and new civilian casualties in the Kursk and Bryansk border regions. A Russian soldier fatality due to Ukrainian shelling is also reported in Zaporizhzhia.

Diplomatic and information operations remain highly active. Ukraine has received significant EU financial aid from frozen Russian assets, with further allocations planned for arms procurement. Political discussions regarding potential peace negotiations are ongoing, with Donald Trump calling for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire and Ukraine expressing readiness for such a pause provided Russia ceases offensive actions. German Chancellor Merz and US President Trump discussed working together to end the war, with Russia needing to agree to a ceasefire. A new Pope has been elected with potential, albeit currently unclear, diplomatic implications. Ukraine has ratified an economic partnership agreement with the US concerning minerals. Russia is heavily engaged in Victory Day commemorations, employing military parades in Moscow featuring foreign contingents (China and Mongolia), auto rallies in occupied territories, and historical narratives to link the current conflict to the defeat of Nazism in WWII. Putin is personally meeting foreign guests at the Kremlin for the Victory Day parade, including Xi Jinping and Lukashenko. Internal Russian issues include security incidents and robust information campaigns, with discussions about potential post-May 9th mobile internet restrictions in Moscow and reported widespread outages across 31 regions, attributed to anti-drone measures. Military diplomatic meetings are taking place, such as between Russia and Kazakhstan. The UK is reportedly poised to impose sanctions on 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet," a significant move targeting Russia's maritime capabilities. Russian state media is providing extensive coverage of Victory Day celebrations, including live broadcasts of the Moscow parade and "Immortal Regiment" marches in Russian cities. China-Russia trade turnover has decreased in January-April 2025. Escalating Israeli airstrikes on Sana'a International Airport in Yemen have also been reported. A new development involves Ukraine's SBU claiming to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence agent network in Zakarpattia Oblast, focused on gathering information about military preparedness and local sentiment. Lithuania has withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention prohibiting anti-personnel mines, citing increased threats from Russia and Belarus. The new Pope, Leo XIV, has emphasized peace in his first address, and both Putin and Zelenskyy have sent congratulations. A Russian Duma Deputy has reacted to an internal incident involving Ingush individuals, highlighting social tensions. Russian military bloggers are engaging with Russian industry, promoting knife manufacturers. A Russian counter-drone project "Hammer of Witches" focused on combating Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones is reported. A Russian decree provides rehabilitation support for wounded soldiers. A Russian military blogger expresses pessimism about Russia's ability to withstand a potential Ukrainian offensive. Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant numbers of Ukrainian UAVs and missiles/projectiles shot down over the past day. A railway station has reopened in Donetsk after an 11-year closure. There is a claim of mobile internet disconnection across the entire European part of Russia tomorrow. Russia's Minister of Defense, Andrey Belousov, is reviewing the Victory Day parade for the first time. The President of the Presidential Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Kostyantyn Filipov, is relinquishing command to Colonel Dmytro Lebid. The Ukrainian forces in the South claim to have inflicted significant losses on Russian forces over the past day, including personnel, artillery systems, vehicles, electronic warfare stations, and drones. A Ukrainian source questions the effectiveness of Ukrainian threats regarding the Victory Day parade. A Russian military blogger criticizes the leadership in Kazakhstan for restricting Victory Day commemorations and symbols. Putin's speech at the Victory Day parade emphasizes the historical significance of the victory over Nazism and links it to the current conflict, stating that "the whole country supports the participants of the special military operation" and that Russia will remain a barrier to Nazism, Russophobia, and anti-Semitism. TASS reports on Kim Jong Un's statements of solidarity with Russia and recognition of the Soviet victory in WWII. Ukrainian sources highlight Russian military production capabilities, citing The Economist's estimates of annual Iskander and Kh-101 missile production. An interview with the Vatican Ambassador to Ukraine reveals challenges in the mediation of prisoner and child returns. Ukrainian sources use imagery and reports of Russian actions (like an overloaded donkey) to counter Russian Victory Day propaganda. Russian sources are actively promoting narratives about the historical significance of Victory Day and its connection to the current conflict. The historical part of the Victory Day parade, featuring WWII-era uniforms and banners, has begun in Moscow. Reports indicate that the "Immortal Regiment" procession is not being held in occupied Donetsk, highlighting the different realities of commemoration. A Ukrainian source questions the cost of the Victory Day parade. A man in Bilensky, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, was injured by a Russian drone attack. The SBU has provided more detailed information on the alleged Hungarian military intelligence network uncovered in Zakarpattia Oblast, including the tasks of the agents and their handler. Alex Parker Returns makes a controversial comment about the appearance of the Russian Minister of Defense and criticizes Putin's speech. Alex Parker Returns shares a photo from Kenya, seemingly referencing a network of contacts. RBC-Ukraine reports on the economic impact of sanctions and falling oil prices on the Russian economy. The Russian Ministry of Defense highlights the participation of troops from CIS countries in the Victory Day parade. Ukrainian sources highlight Hungarian government "hate campaigns" against Ukraine.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Direction: Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat, with 61 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. Рыбарь provides a detailed analysis claiming Russian forces have made significant advances east of Pokrovsk (near Mirnograd), particularly in the area of Malinovka and Mirolubovka, with the objective of cutting the H-32 highway. Ukrainian 108th battalion "Wolves of Da Vinci" claims destruction of a Russian assault group here using drones. Ukrainian 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade claims to have repelled a Russian assault involving 14 units of motor vehicles and 20 personnel, destroying all of them. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Рыбарь, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Novopavlivka Direction: Experienced intense ground combat with 28 attacks repelled by Ukrainian forces in the past day, according to Сили оборони Півдня України. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
Lyman Direction: Experienced 24 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of Ukrainian drone operators in action here. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Tetkino, Budki, Markovo, Glushkovo): Continued high-intensity fighting is reported near Tetkino despite the ceasefire. Civilian casualties reported in Budki, Markovo, and Glushkovo due to drone attacks, mines, and shelling. Рыбарь and Два майора report Ukrainian attempts to advance met by Russian drone and FAB strikes and resistance. Russian Ministry of Defense reports 173 shellings from artillery, tanks, and mortars, 4 MLRS attacks, and 300 drone strikes/drops by Ukrainian forces, totaling 488 ceasefire violations over the past day. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests, using a comprehensive approach including artillery, MLRS, and drones. High activity of UAVs from both sides reported in the area. Russian military blogger reports on the use of Lancet and Z-16 drones in the Kursk border region, claiming destruction of numerous Ukrainian vehicles. Dva Mayora reports that Tetkino has been "перепаханное ударами ФАБами". (Рыбарь, Два майора, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Два майора)
Toretsk Direction: Experienced 13 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. Russian military blogger Colonelcassad is fundraising for equipment for assault troops on this direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Kharkiv Direction (Lyptsi): Experienced 11 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. DeepState reports the liberation of a forest area north of Lyptsi by Ukrainian forces. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, DeepState)
Kramatorsk Direction: Experienced 10 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Orikhiv Direction: Experienced intense ground combat with three attacks repelled by Ukrainian forces in the past day, according to Сили оборони Півдня України. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
Siversk Direction: Experienced 6 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kupiansk Direction: Experienced 6 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry near Kupyansk before the declared ceasefire. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Pridniprovskyi Direction: Experienced 5 unsuccessful Russian attempts to advance in the past day, according to Сили оборони Півдня України. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
Huliaipole Direction: No offensive actions reported by Russian forces in the past day, according to Сили оборони Півдня України. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Vasylivka district, Primorskoye, Кам’янське, Гуляйполе, Щербаки, Новоданилівка, Мала Токмачка, Чарівне, Новодарівка): A woman was killed in Vasylivka district due to enemy attack. Subjected to 150 drone attacks and 70 artillery shellings across 8 settlements over the past day, resulting in destruction and damage to civilian infrastructure. Два майора shares a video from a rocket battery on the Zaporizhzhia front. A Russian soldier fatality due to Ukrainian shelling is reported. Civilian fatality in Primorskoye due to an FPV drone attack on a vehicle. A man in Bilensky was injured by a Russian drone attack. Ukrainian forces in the South claim to have destroyed 4 Starlink antennas and 2 storage sites for fuel and lubricants in this area. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Два майора, Рыбарь, Центр «ВОИН», ASTRA, Colonelcassad, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Bryansk Oblast (Russia) (Demyanki, Kamensky Khutor): Civilian injuries reported from Ukrainian drone attacks and shrapnel. Russian Governor claims repelling a massive Ukrainian strike with over 140 aerial targets destroyed, including a cruise missile, from yesterday evening through the night. (Рыбарь, Два майора, AV БогомаZ, ТАСС)
Belgorod Oblast (Shebekino, Murom, Shamino, Gruzskoe, Urazovo, Kukuevka, Grayvoron): Under fire from Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian drone attacked the government building. (Два майора, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС)
Kherson Oblast (Antonovsky Bridge, Kinburn Spit, Dnepryany): Reported Ukrainian activity near the Antonovsky Bridge met with Russian fire. Kinburn Spit under Ukrainian fire. A fatality and injury reported due to Russian aggression in Kherson Oblast. Civilian fatality in Dnepryany due to Ukrainian shelling of Nova Kakhovka and other settlements. Potential Ukrainian landing activity near the Antonovsky Bridge reported. Ukrainian forces in the South claim to have destroyed 3 boats in this area. (Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Военкор Котенок, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol district, Придніпровський напрямок): Subjected to Russian artillery and drone attacks in the Nikopol district. Experienced 5 unsuccessful Russian attempts to advance on the Pridniprovskyi direction. Civilian injury reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from shelling. (Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Moscow (Russia): Center of the city is blocked for Victory Day parade preparations. Foreign leaders are arriving for the parade. Mobile internet and cellular service may be disconnected for security reasons. Chinese and Mongolian military contingents are preparing for the parade. Putin is personally meeting foreign guests, including Xi Jinping and Lukashenko. A railway station has reopened in Donetsk after an 11-year closure. There is a claim of mobile internet disconnection across the entire European part of Russia tomorrow. The Victory Day parade on Red Square has officially begun, with over 11,000 military personnel participating, including 1,500 from the "special operation." Andrey Belousov, the new Minister of Defense, is reviewing the parade. The historical part of the parade has begun. Russian state media is providing extensive coverage. A Russian military blogger questions the need to thank allies for the second front in Putin's speech. (ASTRA, Новости Москвы, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Mash на Донбассе, Mash на Донбассе, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, MoD Russia, Новости Москвы, Рыбарь, Басурин о главном, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, MoD Russia, ТАСС)
Russia (General): Widespread internet outages reported in 31 regions, attributed to anti-drone measures. Russian military bloggers are claiming an absence of Ukrainian drone activity in the early hours of May 9th, while hinting at their own continued activity. Russian sources are promoting patriotic videos and historical narratives. The Economist reports on Russia's high production rates of Iskander and Kh-101 missiles. Russian sources are commemorating the 80th anniversary of the German surrender. Russia is actively systematizing information on WWII memorials in the post-Soviet space. A Russian military blogger expresses pessimism about Russia's ability to withstand a potential Ukrainian offensive. Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant numbers of Ukrainian UAVs and missiles/projectiles shot down over the past day. A railway station has reopened in Donetsk after an 11-year closure. There is a claim of mobile internet disconnection across the entire European part of Russia tomorrow. Russian state media is providing extensive coverage of Victory Day celebrations. Russian military bloggers are engaged in information operations related to Victory Day. Russian officials are issuing Victory Day greetings. Alex Parker Returns is sharing controversial and ideological content. A WWII veteran is issuing a message of support to servicemen in the conflict zone for Victory Day. Sergey Kiriyenko, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, visited a volunteer unit on the Zaporizhzhia front. The investigation into Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov is complete and the case is going to court. The Russian Ministry of Defense is highlighting the participation of troops from CIS countries in the Victory Day parade. RBC-Ukraine reports on the economic impact of sanctions and falling oil prices on the Russian economy. (Рыбарь, **Воин DV, НгП раZVедка, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, ТАСС, MoD Russia, Mash на Донбассе, Mash на Донбассе, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, WarGonzo, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Рыбарь, Новости Москвы, Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, MoD Russia, ASTRA, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Военкор Котенок, Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Воин DV, Басурин о главном, Colonelcassad, «Зона СВО», ТАСС, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Два майора, MoD Russia, ТАСС, ASTRA, Новости Москвы, Оперативний ЗСУ, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, ASTRA, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Воин DV, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ТАСС, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, ТАСС, ASTRA, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Игорь Артамонов, MoD Russia, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, **AV БогомаZ, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Воин DV, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ | Новости | Срочники, АSTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, STERNENKO, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Два майора, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, MoD Russia, ASTRA, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Басурин о главном, STERNENKO, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, РБК-Україна, Глеб Никитин, ТАСС, ТАСС, ASTRA, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ASTRA, Новости Москвы, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Военкор Котенок, ТАСС, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, MoD Russia, ASTRA, Игорь Артамонов, Два майора, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Рыбарь, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, Басурин о главном, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Два майора, Новости Москвы, Старше Эдды, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, ТАСС, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Два майора, Новости Москвы, Старше Эдды, ТАСС, ТАСС, Старше Эдды, Игорь Артамонов, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Kotsnews, Басурин о главном, АSTRA, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, ТАСС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», РБК-Україна, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Военкор Котенок, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Сили оборони Півдня України, Рыбарь, Два майора, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, ТАСС, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Два майора, Новости Москвы, Старше Эдды, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», РБК-Україна, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Рыбарь, Центр «ВОИН», Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, ТАСС, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Два майора, Новости Москвы, Старше Эдды, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, WarGonzo, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, ASTRA, ASTRA, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, Военкор Котенок, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Народная милиция ДНР, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Два майора, STERNENKO, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦, Mash на Донбассе, Mash на Донбассе, Север.Реалии, Alex Parker Returns, Сили оборони Півдня України, Басурин о главном, Новости Москвы, Президентська бригада ЗСУ, РБК-Україна, Alex Parker Returns, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, ТАСС, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, НгП раZVедка, ТАСС, Военкор Котенок, ASTRA, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Mash на Донбассе, Рыбарь, Военкор Котенок, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, Alex Parker Returns, РБК-Україна, MoD Russia, ASTRA, Новости Москвы, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Zakarpattia Oblast: SBU claims to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence agent network here, focused on gathering information about military preparedness, local sentiment, and potentially the reaction to a Hungarian military presence. Ukrainian sources are reacting strongly to the alleged Hungarian intelligence activity. (РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno)
European Russia: Ukrainian source claims potential large-scale mobile internet disconnection across the entire European part tomorrow, possibly for security reasons related to Victory Day. Russian Ministry of Defense reports Russian air defense shot down 524 UAVs over the past day. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, MoD Russia)
Crimea: High Court of London has allowed Russia to temporarily not execute the decision of the Hague arbitration regarding the recovery of $207.8 million in favor of Ukrainian DTEK Krymenergo for the loss of energy assets in Crimea. (ТАСС)
Vologda Oblast (Russia) (Cherepovetsky district): Two aircraft-type UAVs reportedly shot down over Cherepovetsky district. (Два майора, ТАСС)
Donetsk (Occupied Territory): The "Immortal Regiment" procession is reportedly not being held here for security reasons, although some individuals are participating. (Mash на Донбассе, Mash на Донбассе)
Kazakhstan: A Russian military blogger criticizes the leadership for restricting Victory Day commemorations and symbols like the St. George ribbon, despite the President's presence at the Moscow parade. Russian and Kazakh Defense Ministers discussed bilateral cooperation and commemorating shared history. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, MoD Russia)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia used 2891 kamikaze drones and lost 141 operational-tactical UAVs in the past day. Russian forces conducted 150 drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast and used a kamikaze drone in attacks on Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian drone attacked the Belgorod government building. Civilian injuries reported from Ukrainian drone attacks in Budki, Kursk Oblast and Demyanki, Bryansk Oblast. Сили оборони Півдня України report Russians actively using FPV drones on the southern direction and conducted 464 drone attacks (FPV and drops) over the past day. Alex Parker Returns reports mobile internet starting to be disconnected in Moscow, and Рыбарь reports widespread internet outages in 31 regions of Russia, attributed to anti-drone measures. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» shares a video claiming drone pilots destroyed an enemy vehicle that self-destructed after an initial drop. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming drone operators of the "Gostri Kartuzy" group destroyed a Russian soldier and shows footage of Russian drones engaging in the Lyman direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and a signal amplifier. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА is selling and soliciting funds for tactical equipment and body armor sets. РБК-Україна reports a Ukrainian National Guard unit is fundraising for lost equipment and tactical gear, including equipment for pilots. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 is offering a signed flag as a gift for a donation, implying support for drone acquisition. Colonelcassad shared video of Russian ZALA "Lancet" and ZALA Z-16 work in the Kursk border region. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides updated estimated Russian drone losses for the past day as 39 UAVs. Russian forces claim to be destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry near Kupyansk using FPV drones. Civilian fatality in Primorskoye, Zaporizhzhia due to an FPV drone attack on a vehicle. Russian military blogger reports Russian naval infantry drone operators effectively countering enemy drones on the Kherson direction. Russian military blogger reports on counter-drone project "Hammer of Witches" targeting Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones, including shooting them down and repurposing captured ones. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, using drones as part of their approach. Two aircraft-type UAVs reportedly shot down over Cherepovetsky district, Vologda Oblast. Drone fell in Alexeevsky district, Vladimir Oblast. Air Raid Alert in Lipetsk Oblast due to UAV threat. Russian Ministry of Defense reports Russian air defense shot down 524 UAVs over the past day. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming the destruction of another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone. A man in Bilensky, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, was injured by a Russian drone attack. Ukrainian forces in the South claim to have destroyed 3 drone antennas, a video surveillance camera, and a quadricycle in the past day, in addition to their own efforts to inflict losses using drones. Ukrainian drone operators from the "Roniny" Battalion of Unmanned Systems of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade claim to have destroyed a Russian Buk-M3 air defense system and three quadricycles using drones. A Ukrainian source questions if Ukraine has forgotten its threats to use drones during the Victory Day parade. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, РБК-Україна, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, ТАСС, ASTRA, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Игорь Артамонов, MoD Russia, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Сили оборони Півдня України, STERNENKO, Alex Parker Returns)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports Launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast. Рыбарь reports Russian forces used FABs in strikes near Tetkino. Сили оборони Півдня України report Russian aviation using guided bombs on the southern direction, but does not provide specific numbers for the past day. Dva Mayora reports that Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, has been "перепаханное ударами ФАБов". (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України, Два майора, Два майора)
Missile Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia launched 2 missile strikes using 2 missiles in the past day. Сили оборони Півдня України report Russian forces continuing fire with various artillery and MLRS but no specific missile launches in the past day. India accused Pakistan of shelling military bases with missiles. Air raid alarm for missile danger in Lipetsk Oblast (Russia) reported. Russian Governor of Bryansk claims one cruise missile was among the over 140 aerial targets destroyed from yesterday evening through the night. Russian Ministry of Defense reports Russian air defense shot down five Neptune, six JDAM, and two HIMARS missiles/projectiles over the past day. Russian military blogger speculates on retaliation for Victory Day attacks, mentioning potential use of "Oreshnik" missile strike on Kyiv (previous report). The Economist reports that Russia produces over 1400 Iskander ballistic missiles and 500 Kh-101 cruise missiles annually. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, ASTRA, Игорь Артамонов, AV БогомаZ, ТАСС, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad, РБК-Україна, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Naval Activity: Рыбарь reports that Ukraine has deployed several dozen unmanned boats (MBEKs) in the sea and potentially placed them in waiting mode. Сили оборони Півдня України do not provide an update on naval activity. The UK is reportedly set to impose sanctions on 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet." Greek company demonstrates autonomous coastal defense systems, including unmanned surface vessels designed to hide on the seabed. Ukrainian forces in the South claim to have destroyed 3 boats in the past day. (Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України, STERNENKO, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Два майора, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Aviation: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia conducted 89 air strikes in the past day. Рыбарь reports Russian forces used aviation in strikes near Tetkino. Сили оборони Півдня України report Russian aviation using guided bombs on the southern direction. India and Pakistan reportedly engaged in a large-scale aerial battle. Ukrainian aviation is reportedly working on the southern direction, targeting personnel, command posts, and boats. Ukrainian Air Force warns of Russian tactical aviation activity on the northeastern direction and the threat of aerial weapons. Ukrainian General Staff reports that a Su-25 pilot has been awarded "Hero of Ukraine". (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia conducted over 6000 shellings, including 151 from MLRS, in the past day. Russian forces conducted 70 artillery shellings on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Рыбарь reports Russian Ministry of Defense reports 173 shellings from artillery, tanks, and mortars, and 4 MLRS attacks by Ukrainian forces on the Kursk direction. Сили оборони Півдня України report 170 shellings and the enemy continuing fire with various artillery and RSML but no specific numbers for the past day. A Russian soldier fatality due to Ukrainian shelling is reported in Zaporizhzhia. Civilian fatality in Dnepryany, Kherson Oblast, due to Ukrainian shelling. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests, using artillery and MLRS as part of their approach. Russian forces, according to a military blogger, claim continued fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks on the Southern Donetsk direction despite a declared ceasefire, with the enemy using heavy artillery against them. Ukrainian forces in the South claim to have destroyed 3 artillery systems and a mortar in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗSУ, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України, Рыбарь, Центр «ВОИН», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Colonelcassad, Воин DV, Сили оборони Півдня України)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Victory Day Narratives: Russian sources are heavily promoting the historical significance of Victory Day, linking it to the current conflict and criticizing Ukraine and Europe. Ukrainian sources are actively countering Russian narratives and focusing on commemorating Ukrainian defenders and emphasizing European values. Foreign leaders are attending the Victory Day parade in Moscow. Putin is personally meeting foreign guests at the Kremlin, including Xi Jinping and Lukashenko. Patriarch Kirill and others laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Russian Governor shares story of WWII veteran. Putin's speech before Victory Day guests emphasizes the sacredness of May 9th, the collective effort in victory, the importance of the UN, the undeniable role of the USSR, and a call for global solidarity. Russian special forces intelligence officers share a video congratulating on the 80th anniversary of Victory. Russian military bloggers are discussing Moldova's approach to historical memory and creating short films about WWII. Russian military blogger Kotsnews highlights a WWII monument and criticizes Trump's comments on Victory Day. Басурин о главном highlights the use of media facades in Moscow to welcome foreign guests. Victory Day celebrations have officially begun in Russia, starting in the Far East with military parades and processions. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić are arriving in Moscow for Victory Day celebrations. The Victory Day parade on Red Square has officially begun, with over 11,000 military personnel participating, including 1,500 from the "special operation." Andrey Belousov, the new Minister of Defense, is reviewing the parade. The historical part of the parade, featuring WWII-era uniforms and banners, has begun. Putin's speech at the parade emphasizes the historical significance of the victory over Nazism and links it to the current conflict, stating that "the whole country supports the participants of the special military operation" and that Russia will remain a barrier to Nazism, Russophobia, and anti-Semitism. He also emphasizes remembrance and the need to uphold the lessons of WWII. Russian state media is providing extensive coverage of the parades. A Russian military blogger criticizes the leadership in Kazakhstan for restricting Victory Day commemorations and symbols. The Russian Ministry of Defense highlights the participation of troops from CIS countries in the Victory Day parade. Ukrainian sources are countering Russian narratives by questioning the cost of the parade and highlighting the situation in occupied territories like Donetsk. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Два майора, Новости Москвы, Старше Эдды, ТАСС, ТАСС, Старше Эдды, Игорь Артамонов, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Kotsnews, Басурин о главном, ТАСС, Воин DV, ТАСС, MoD Russia, Новости Москвы, Рыбарь, Басурин о главном, ТАСС, ТАСС, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, MoD Russia, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Mash на Донбассе)
Russia-US Relations: New meeting planned to discuss restoring embassy operations, but no dates set. Russia states no prospects for maintaining START III without better US policy. Putin's assistant claims Russia and the US are moving towards a meeting of the two presidents. (ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна)
German-US Diplomatic Contact: German Chancellor Merz and US President Trump discussed ending the war in Ukraine and the need for a Russian ceasefire for negotiations. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
UK Sanctions: The UK is set to announce significant sanctions targeting Russia's "shadow fleet." (STERNENKO, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Romania: Winner of the first round of the presidential election demands compensation from Ukraine and calls for a ceasefire. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк)
Hungary-Ukraine Relations: Ukraine's SBU claims to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence network spying in Zakarpattia Oblast. Ukrainian sources are reacting strongly to the alleged Hungarian intelligence activity and highlighting Hungarian government "hate campaigns" against Ukraine. (РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, Оперативний ЗСУ)
Russia-Belarus Relations: Russian youth project trip to Brest and Minsk for Victory Day commemorations. Lukashenko has arrived in Moscow for the Victory Day parade. (Глеб Никитин, ТАСС, ТАСС)
India-Pakistan Conflict: Continued escalation reported. India claims "Sindur" operation involved launching 24 rockets at targets in Pakistan, destroying 70 terrorists. Pakistan claims 24 civilian fatalities and 46 injured. India admitted losing 3 aircraft. Pakistan states readiness to cease hostilities if India stops escalation. Intense fighting reported in Kashmir. (ASTRA, ASTRA, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС)
China-Russia Relations: Chinese President Xi Jinping has arrived in Moscow for the Victory Day parade. TASS reports on the status of Russia-China gas pipeline negotiations. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin discussed the Ukrainian crisis during their meeting in Moscow. (ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Vatican: Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost has been elected as the new Pope, taking the name Leo XIV. The new Pope has emphasized peace in his first address, and both Putin and Zelenskyy have sent congratulations. An interview with the Vatican Ambassador to Ukraine reveals challenges in the mediation of prisoner and child returns. (РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ASTRA, Новости Москвы, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Военкор Котенок, ТАСС, РБК-Україна)
Lithuania: Lithuanian Parliament has decided to denounce the Ottawa Convention prohibiting anti-personnel mines, citing the deteriorating security situation and increased military threats from Russia and Belarus. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)
Kazakhstan: Russian and Kazakh Defense Ministers discussed bilateral cooperation and commemorating shared history. A Russian military blogger criticizes the leadership for restricting Victory Day commemorations and symbols. (MoD Russia, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Germany: The new head of the German Foreign Ministry, Johann Wadephul, has arrived in Ukraine for his first visit and will participate in an informal meeting of EU Foreign Ministers in Lviv. (Оперативний ЗСУ)
CIS Countries: The Russian Ministry of Defense highlights the participation of troops from CIS countries in the Victory Day parade, emphasizing historical unity. (MoD Russia)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):