Sitrep 2025-05-09 07:10:59

Operational Intelligence Briefing - Major Updates and Analysis (May 9, 2025, 07:10 UTC)

Updated Situation

The operational environment continues to be defined by intense ground combat, particularly around Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka, with new Russian claims of advances east of Pokrovsk. Despite a declared Russian ceasefire for Victory Day, fighting persists in contested areas, including the Kursk border region and near the Antonovsky Bridge. Russian aerial activity, encompassing widespread drone and ballistic missile launches, continues across numerous Ukrainian oblasts, leading to ongoing air raid alerts, with a new report of a Ukrainian drone attack on the Belgorod government building. Ukrainian drone attacks are still targeting Russian industrial and military facilities, leading to temporary disruptions at airports and reported widespread internet outages in Russia. Sadly, civilian casualties are still being reported on both sides, with a fatality confirmed in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to a drone attack, injuries in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from recent shelling, and new civilian casualties in the Kursk and Bryansk border regions. A Russian soldier fatality due to Ukrainian shelling is also reported in Zaporizhzhia.

Diplomatic and information operations remain highly active. Ukraine has received significant EU financial aid from frozen Russian assets, with further allocations planned for arms procurement. Political discussions regarding potential peace negotiations are ongoing, with Donald Trump calling for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire and Ukraine expressing readiness for such a pause provided Russia ceases offensive actions. German Chancellor Merz and US President Trump discussed working together to end the war, with Russia needing to agree to a ceasefire. A new Pope has been elected with potential, albeit currently unclear, diplomatic implications. Ukraine has ratified an economic partnership agreement with the US concerning minerals. Russia is heavily engaged in Victory Day commemorations, employing military parades in Moscow featuring foreign contingents (China and Mongolia), auto rallies in occupied territories, and historical narratives to link the current conflict to the defeat of Nazism in WWII. Putin is personally meeting foreign guests at the Kremlin for the Victory Day parade, including Xi Jinping and Lukashenko. Internal Russian issues include security incidents and robust information campaigns, with discussions about potential post-May 9th mobile internet restrictions in Moscow and reported widespread outages across 31 regions, attributed to anti-drone measures. Military diplomatic meetings are taking place, such as between Russia and Kazakhstan. The UK is reportedly poised to impose sanctions on 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet," a significant move targeting Russia's maritime capabilities. Russian state media is providing extensive coverage of Victory Day celebrations, including live broadcasts of the Moscow parade and "Immortal Regiment" marches in Russian cities. China-Russia trade turnover has decreased in January-April 2025. Escalating Israeli airstrikes on Sana'a International Airport in Yemen have also been reported. A new development involves Ukraine's SBU claiming to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence agent network in Zakarpattia Oblast, focused on gathering information about military preparedness and local sentiment. Lithuania has withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention prohibiting anti-personnel mines, citing increased threats from Russia and Belarus. The new Pope, Leo XIV, has emphasized peace in his first address, and both Putin and Zelenskyy have sent congratulations. A Russian Duma Deputy has reacted to an internal incident involving Ingush individuals, highlighting social tensions. Russian military bloggers are engaging with Russian industry, promoting knife manufacturers. A Russian counter-drone project "Hammer of Witches" focused on combating Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones is reported. A Russian decree provides rehabilitation support for wounded soldiers. A Russian military blogger expresses pessimism about Russia's ability to withstand a potential Ukrainian offensive. Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant numbers of Ukrainian UAVs and missiles/projectiles shot down over the past day. A railway station has reopened in Donetsk after an 11-year closure. There is a claim of mobile internet disconnection across the entire European part of Russia tomorrow.

Areas of Significant Activity (Updated)

Pokrovsk Direction: Remains a primary focus of intense ground combat, with 61 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. Рыбарь provides a detailed analysis claiming Russian forces have made significant advances east of Pokrovsk (near Mirnograd), particularly in the area of Malinovka and Mirolubovka, with the objective of cutting the H-32 highway. Ukrainian 108th battalion "Wolves of Da Vinci" claims destruction of a Russian assault group here using drones. Ukrainian 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade claims to have repelled a Russian assault involving 14 units of motor vehicles and 20 personnel, destroying all of them. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Рыбарь, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Novopavlivka Direction: Experienced intense ground combat with 28 attacks repelled by Ukrainian forces in the past day, according to Сили оборони Півдня України. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
Lyman Direction: Experienced 24 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video of Ukrainian drone operators in action here. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС)
Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Tetkino, Budki, Markovo, Glushkovo): Continued high-intensity fighting is reported near Tetkino despite the ceasefire. Civilian casualties reported in Budki, Markovo, and Glushkovo due to drone attacks, mines, and shelling. Рыбарь and Два майора report Ukrainian attempts to advance met by Russian drone and FAB strikes and resistance. Russian Ministry of Defense reports 173 shellings from artillery, tanks, and mortars, 4 MLRS attacks, and 300 drone strikes/drops by Ukrainian forces, totaling 488 ceasefire violations over the past day. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests, using a comprehensive approach including artillery, MLRS, and drones. High activity of UAVs from both sides reported in the area. Russian military blogger reports on the use of Lancet and Z-16 drones in the Kursk border region, claiming destruction of numerous Ukrainian vehicles. Dva Mayora reports that Tetkino has been "перепаханное ударами ФАБов". (Рыбарь, Два майора, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, Два майора)
Toretsk Direction: Experienced 13 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. Russian military blogger Colonelcassad is fundraising for equipment for assault troops on this direction. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Kharkiv Direction (Lyptsi): Experienced 11 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. DeepState reports the liberation of a forest area north of Lyptsi by Ukrainian forces. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, DeepState)
Kramatorsk Direction: Experienced 10 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Orikhiv Direction: Experienced intense ground combat with three attacks repelled by Ukrainian forces in the past day, according to Сили оборони Півдня України. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
Siversk Direction: Experienced 6 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Kupiansk Direction: Experienced 6 engagements reported by the Ukrainian General Staff in the past day. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны claims Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry near Kupyansk before the declared ceasefire. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны)
Pridniprovskyi Direction: Experienced 5 unsuccessful Russian attempts to advance in the past day, according to Сили оборони Півдня України. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
Huliaipole Direction: No offensive actions reported by Russian forces in the past day, according to Сили оборони Півдня України. (Сили оборони Півдня України)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast (Vasylivka district, Primorskoye, Кам’янське, Гуляйполе, Щербаки, Новоданилівка, Мала Токмачка, Чарівне, Новодарівка): A woman was killed in Vasylivka district due to enemy attack. Subjected to 150 drone attacks and 70 artillery shellings across 8 settlements over the past day, resulting in destruction and damage to civilian infrastructure. Два майора shares a video from a rocket battery on the Zaporizhzhia front. A Russian soldier fatality due to Ukrainian shelling is reported. Civilian fatality in Primorskoye due to an FPV drone attack on a vehicle. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Два майора, Рыбарь, Центр «ВОИН», ASTRA, Colonelcassad)
Bryansk Oblast (Russia) (Demyanki, Kamensky Khutor): Civilian injuries reported from Ukrainian drone attacks and shrapnel. Russian Governor claims repelling a massive Ukrainian strike with over 140 aerial targets destroyed, including a cruise missile, from yesterday evening through the night. (Рыбарь, Два майора, AV БогомаZ, ТАСС)
Belgorod Oblast (Shebekino, Murom, Shamino, Gruzskoe, Urazovo, Kukuevka, Grayvoron): Under fire from Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian drone attacked the government building. (Два майора, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС)
Kherson Oblast (Antonovsky Bridge, Kinburn Spit, Dnepryany): Reported Ukrainian activity near the Antonovsky Bridge met with Russian fire. Kinburn Spit under Ukrainian fire. A fatality and injury reported due to Russian aggression in Kherson Oblast. Civilian fatality in Dnepryany due to Ukrainian shelling of Nova Kakhovka and other settlements. Potential Ukrainian landing activity near the Antonovsky Bridge reported. (Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Военкор Котенок)
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol district, Придніпровський напрямок): Subjected to Russian artillery and drone attacks in the Nikopol district. Experienced 5 unsuccessful Russian attempts to advance on the Pridniprovskyi direction. Civilian injury reported in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from shelling. (Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України)
Moscow (Russia): Center of the city is blocked for Victory Day parade preparations. Foreign leaders are arriving for the parade. Mobile internet and cellular service may be disconnected for security reasons. Chinese and Mongolian military contingents are preparing for the parade. Putin is personally meeting foreign guests, including Xi Jinping and Lukashenko. A railway station has reopened in Donetsk after an 11-year closure. There is a claim of mobile internet disconnection across the entire European part of Russia tomorrow. (ASTRA, Новости Москвы, Alex Parker Returns, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС, Mash на Донбассе, Mash на Донбассе, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Russia (General): Widespread internet outages reported in 31 regions, attributed to anti-drone measures. (Рыбарь)
Zakarpattia Oblast: SBU claims to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence agent network here. (РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ)
India-Pakistan Border: Continued escalation reported. India claims "Sindur" operation involved launching 24 rockets at targets in Pakistan, destroying 70 terrorists. Pakistan claims 24 civilian fatalities and 46 injured. India admitted losing 3 aircraft. Pakistan states readiness to cease hostilities if India stops escalation. Intense fighting reported in Kashmir. (ASTRA, ASTRA, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС)
Luhansk Oblast (Makeevka): Сливочный каприз claims Russian forces have advanced 600 meters west of Makeevka and occupied new positions. (Сливочный каприз)
European Russia: Ukrainian source claims potential large-scale mobile internet disconnection across the entire European part tomorrow, possibly for security reasons related to Victory Day. Russian Ministry of Defense reports Russian air defense shot down 524 UAVs over the past day. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, MoD Russia)
Crimea: High Court of London has allowed Russia to temporarily not execute the decision of the Hague arbitration regarding the recovery of $207.8 million in favor of Ukrainian DTEK Krymenergo for the loss of energy assets in Crimea. (ТАСС)
Vologda Oblast (Russia) (Cherepovetsky district): Two aircraft-type UAVs reportedly shot down over Cherepovetsky district. (Два майора, ТАСС)

Aerial and Naval Activity (Updated):

Drone Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia used 2891 kamikaze drones and lost 141 operational-tactical UAVs in the past day. Russian forces conducted 150 drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast and used a kamikaze drone in attacks on Nikopol district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian drone attacked the Belgorod government building. Civilian injuries reported from Ukrainian drone attacks in Budki, Kursk Oblast and Demyanki, Bryansk Oblast. Сили оборони Півдня України report Russians actively using FPV drones on the southern direction and conducted 464 drone attacks (FPV and drops) over the past day. Alex Parker Returns reports mobile internet starting to be disconnected in Moscow, and Рыбарь reports widespread internet outages in 31 regions of Russia, attributed to anti-drone measures. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» shares a video claiming drone pilots destroyed an enemy vehicle that self-destructed after an initial drop. БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС shares a video claiming drone operators of the "Gostri Kartuzy" group destroyed a Russian soldier and shows footage of Russian drones engaging in the Lyman direction. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and a signal amplifier. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА is selling and soliciting funds for tactical equipment and body armor sets. РБК-Україна reports a Ukrainian National Guard unit is fundraising for lost equipment and tactical gear, including equipment for pilots. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 is offering a signed flag as a gift for a donation, implying support for drone acquisition. Colonelcassad shared video of Russian ZALA "Lancet" and ZALA Z-16 work in the Kursk border region. ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 provides updated estimated Russian drone losses for the past day as 39 UAVs. Russian forces claim to be destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry near Kupyansk using FPV drones. Civilian fatality in Primorskoye, Zaporizhzhia due to an FPV drone attack on a vehicle. Russian military blogger reports Russian naval infantry drone operators effectively countering enemy drones on the Kherson direction. Russian military blogger reports on counter-drone project "Hammer of Witches" targeting Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drones, including shooting them down and repurposing captured ones. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, using drones as part of their approach. Two aircraft-type UAVs reportedly shot down over Cherepovetsky district, Vologda Oblast. Drone fell in Alexeevsky district, Vladimir Oblast. Air Raid Alert in Lipetsk Oblast due to UAV threat. Russian Ministry of Defense reports Russian air defense shot down 524 UAVs over the past day. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА shares a video claiming the destruction of another Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, Alex Parker Returns, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, РБК-Україна, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, WarGonzo, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Два майора, ТАСС, ASTRA, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Игорь Артамонов, MoD Russia, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА)
Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Повітряні Сили ЗС України reports Launches of KABs towards Sumy Oblast. Рыбарь reports Russian forces used FABs in strikes near Tetkino. Сили оборони Півдня України report Russian aviation using guided bombs on the southern direction, but does not provide specific numbers for the past day. Dva Mayora reports that Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, has been "перепаханное ударами ФАБов". (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України, Два майора, Два майора)
Missile Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia launched 2 missile strikes using 2 missiles in the past day. Сили оборони Півдня України report Russian forces continuing fire with various artillery and MLRS but no specific missile launches in the past day. India accused Pakistan of shelling military bases with missiles. Air raid alarm for missile danger in Lipetsk Oblast (Russia) reported. Russian Governor of Bryansk claims one cruise missile was among the over 140 aerial targets destroyed from yesterday evening through the night. Russian Ministry of Defense reports Russian air defense shot down five Neptune, six JDAM, and two HIMARS missiles/projectiles over the past day. Russian military blogger speculates on retaliation for Victory Day attacks, mentioning potential use of "Oreshnik" missile strike on Kyiv (previous report). (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Сили оборони Півдня України, ASTRA, Игорь Артамонов, AV БогомаZ, ТАСС, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, MoD Russia, Colonelcassad)
Naval Activity: Рыбарь reports that Ukraine has deployed several dozen unmanned boats (MBEKs) in the sea and potentially placed them in waiting mode. Сили оборони Півдня України do not provide an update on naval activity. The UK is reportedly set to impose sanctions on 100 oil tankers in Russia's "shadow fleet." Greek company demonstrates autonomous coastal defense systems, including unmanned surface vessels designed to hide on the seabed. (Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України, STERNENKO, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Два майора)
Aviation: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia conducted 89 air strikes in the past day. Рыбарь reports Russian forces used aviation in strikes near Tetkino. Сили оборони Півдня України report Russian aviation using guided bombs on the southern direction. India and Pakistan reportedly engaged in a large-scale aerial battle. Ukrainian aviation is reportedly working on the southern direction, targeting personnel, command posts, and boats. Ukrainian Air Force warns of Russian tactical aviation activity on the northeastern direction and the threat of aerial weapons. Ukrainian General Staff reports that a Su-25 pilot has been awarded "Hero of Ukraine". (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України, ASTRA, Оперативний ЗСУ, Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Artillery and MLRS Activity: Ukrainian General Staff reports Russia conducted over 6000 shellings, including 151 from MLRS, in the past day. Russian forces conducted 70 artillery shellings on Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Рыбарь reports Russian Ministry of Defense reports 173 shellings from artillery, tanks, and mortars, and 4 MLRS attacks by Ukrainian forces on the Kursk direction. Сили оборони Півдня України report 170 shellings and the enemy continuing fire with various artillery and RSML on the southern regions. A Russian soldier fatality due to Ukrainian shelling is reported in Zaporizhzhia. Civilian fatality in Dnepryany, Kherson Oblast, due to Ukrainian shelling. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests, using artillery and MLRS as part of their approach. Russian forces, according to a military blogger, claim continued fighting and Ukrainian counterattacks on the Southern Donetsk direction despite a declared ceasefire, with the enemy using heavy artillery against them. (Генеральний штаб ЗSУ, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Рыбарь, Сили оборони Півдня України, Рыбарь, Центр «ВОИН», Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Colonelcassad, Воин DV)

Diplomatic and Political Developments (Updated):

Victory Day Narratives: Russian sources are heavily promoting the historical significance of Victory Day, linking it to the current conflict and criticizing Ukraine and Europe. Ukrainian sources are actively countering Russian narratives and focusing on commemorating Ukrainian defenders and emphasizing European values. Foreign leaders are attending the Victory Day parade in Moscow. Putin is personally meeting foreign guests at the Kremlin, including Xi Jinping and Lukashenko. Patriarch Kirill and others laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Russian Governor shares story of WWII veteran. Putin's speech before Victory Day guests emphasizes the sacredness of May 9th, the collective effort in victory, the importance of the UN, the undeniable role of the USSR, and a call for global solidarity. Russian special forces intelligence officers share a video congratulating on the 80th anniversary of Victory. Russian military bloggers are discussing Moldova's approach to historical memory and creating short films about WWII. Russian military blogger Kotsnews highlights a WWII monument and criticizes Trump's comments on Victory Day. Басурин о главном highlights the use of media facades in Moscow to welcome foreign guests. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Два майора, Новости Москвы, Старше Эдды, ТАСС, ТАСС, Старше Эдды, Игорь Артамонов, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Два майора, Kotsnews, Басурин о главном)
Russia-US Relations: New meeting planned to discuss restoring embassy operations, but no dates set. Russia states no prospects for maintaining START III without better US policy. Putin's assistant claims Russia and the US are moving towards a meeting of the two presidents. (ТАСС, ТАСС, РБК-Україна)
German-US Diplomatic Contact: German Chancellor Merz and US President Trump discussed ending the war in Ukraine and the need for a Russian ceasefire for negotiations. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
UK Sanctions: The UK is set to announce significant sanctions targeting Russia's "shadow fleet." (STERNENKO, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦)
Romania: Winner of the first round of the presidential election demands compensation from Ukraine and calls for a ceasefire. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк)
Hungary-Ukraine Relations: Ukraine's SBU claims to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence network spying in Zakarpattia Oblast. Ukrainian sources are reacting strongly to the alleged Hungarian intelligence activity. (РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк)
Russia-Belarus Relations: Russian youth project trip to Brest and Minsk for Victory Day commemorations. Lukashenko has arrived in Moscow for the Victory Day parade. (Глеб Никитин, ТАСС, ТАСС)
India-Pakistan Conflict: Continued escalation reported. India claims "Sindur" operation involved launching 24 rockets at targets in Pakistan, destroying 70 terrorists. Pakistan claims 24 civilian fatalities and 46 injured. India admitted losing 3 aircraft. Pakistan states readiness to cease hostilities if India stops escalation. Intense fighting reported in Kashmir. (ASTRA, ASTRA, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС)
China-Russia Relations: Chinese President Xi Jinping has arrived in Moscow for the Victory Day parade. TASS reports on the status of Russia-China gas pipeline negotiations. (ТАСС, ТАСС, ТАСС)
Vatican: Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost has been elected as the new Pope, taking the name Leo XIV. The new Pope has emphasized peace in his first address. Both Putin and Zelenskyy have sent congratulations to the new Pope. (РБК-Україна, ТАСС, ASTRA, Новости Москвы, Оперативний ЗСУ, STERNENKO, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, ТАСС, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Военкор Котенок, ТАСС)
Lithuania: Lithuanian Parliament has decided to denounce the Ottawa Convention prohibiting anti-personnel mines, citing the deteriorating security situation and increased military threats from Russia and Belarus. (✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)
Kazakhstan: Russian and Kazakh Defense Ministers discussed bilateral cooperation and commemorating shared history. (MoD Russia)

Internal Russian Issues (Updated):

Internal Security Concerns: Widespread internet outages reported in 31 regions, attributed to anti-drone measures. Potential mobile internet and cellular service disconnection in Moscow for security reasons on May 9th. Ukrainian drone attack on the Belgorod government building. A "фейковое" (fake) congratulatory message on a regional government website attributed to a hacker attack. Air Raid Alert in Lipetsk Oblast due to UAV threat. Two aircraft-type UAVs reportedly shot down over Cherepovetsky district, Vologda Oblast. Drone fell in Alexeevsky district, Vladimir Oblast. Report of a UAV destroyed in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast. There is a claim of mobile internet disconnection across the entire European part of Russia tomorrow. (Рыбарь, Alex Parker Returns, ASTRA, Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, ТАСС, ASTRA, Игорь Артамонов, Два майора, ТАСС, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
Casualties: New civilian casualties reported in the Kursk and Bryansk border regions due to Ukrainian attacks. A Russian soldier fatality due to Ukrainian shelling is reported in Zaporizhzhia. (Рыбарь, Два майора, Рыбарь, Центр «ВОИН»)
Fundraising for Military: Ongoing fundraising efforts for drones, tactical equipment, and supplies. Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 is fundraising for a Mavic 3 Pro drone and a signal amplifier. АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА is selling and soliciting funds for tactical equipment and body armor sets. ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура» is fundraising for pickup trucks. РБК-Україна reports a Ukrainian National Guard unit is fundraising for lost equipment and tactical gear. Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 is offering a signed flag as a gift for a donation, implying support for equipment acquisition. Russian military blogger Colonelcassad is fundraising for equipment for assault troops on the Dzerzhinsk direction. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», РБК-Україна, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Social Tensions: Russian Duma Deputy reacts to an internal incident involving Ingush individuals in Vladimir Oblast, highlighting social tensions. (Военкор Котенок)

Support and Rehabilitation (Updated)

Humanitarian Situation: Civilian fatality in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to drone attack. Civilian injuries in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from shelling. New civilian casualties reported in the Kursk and Bryansk border regions. Civilian fatality in Primorskoye, Zaporizhzhia due to an FPV drone attack on a vehicle. Civilian fatality in Dnepryany, Kherson Oblast, due to Ukrainian shelling of Nova Kakhovka and other settlements. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Сили оборони Півдня України, Рыбарь, Два майора, ASTRA, Colonelcassad, Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)
Commemoration: Daily moments of silence observed in Ukraine. Commemoration of a fallen defender from Kyiv. Victory Day commemorations in Russia are ongoing, with military parades and "Immortal Regiment" marches. Ukrainian authorities are actively commemorating fallen soldiers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. (🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, ТАСС, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Два майора, Новости Москвы, Старше Эдды, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦)
Fundraising: Continued fundraising efforts for military support and equipment. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», РБК-Україна, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, Colonelcassad, Colonelcassad)
Rehabilitation Support: Russian decree provides free travel and accommodation for family members accompanying wounded soldiers during rehabilitation. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺)

Other Information (Updated):

Casualty Reports: Updated estimated Russian losses provided by ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦. A Russian soldier fatality due to Ukrainian shelling is reported in Zaporizhzhia. (ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦, Рыбарь, Центр «ВОИН»)
Information Operations: Ongoing information campaigns related to Victory Day and the conflict narratives. Russian state media is providing extensive coverage of Victory Day celebrations. Ukrainian sources are actively countering Russian narratives and emphasizing European values. A "фейковое" (fake) congratulatory message on a regional Russian government website attributed to a hacker attack highlights ongoing information warfare. Russian military bloggers are engaging with Russian industry, promoting knife manufacturers. Russian military blogger Alex Parker Returns criticizes Zelenskyy. Ukrainian source claims potential large-scale mobile internet disconnection across the entire European part of Russia tomorrow, likely for security reasons. (Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны, Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Оперативний ЗСУ, КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація), Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, ТАСС, ТАСС, Воин DV, Kotsnews, Два майора, Новости Москвы, Старше Эдды, РБК-Україна, РБК-Україна, ASTRA, WarGonzo, Alex Parker Returns, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
India-Pakistan Conflict: Continued escalation reported. (ASTRA, ASTRA, ТАСС, ТАСС, Colonelcassad, Alex Parker Returns, Alex Parker Returns, ТАСС)
Military Intelligence: SBU claims to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence network. Ukrainian sources are reacting strongly to the alleged Hungarian intelligence activity. Russian military blogger assesses new Pope. (РБК-Україна, Николаевский Ванёк, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, STERNENKO, Оперативний ЗСУ, Николаевский Ванёк, Военкор Котенок)
Military Units: 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura" and "Gostri Kartuzy" group mentioned in operational videos. 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade reconnaissance activities highlighted. Ukrainian 108th battalion "Wolves of Da Vinci" and 46th Separate Airmobile Podilska Brigade mentioned in claims of destroying Russian assault groups. Russian special unit "Anvar" claims elimination of Ukrainian personnel in bordering forests. Russian military blogger reports on drone operators of the "DPR People's Militia" unit "Okhotnik". Ukrainian Su-25 pilot awarded "Hero of Ukraine". (‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура», БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition, Народная милиция ДНР, Генеральний штаб ЗСУ)
Geopolitical Updates: Greek company demonstrates autonomous coastal defense systems. Iran publishes videos of US and coalition actions in the Persian Gulf. Lithuania withdraws from the Ottawa Convention prohibiting anti-personnel mines. (Два майора, STERNENKO, ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦)
Infrastructure: A railway station has reopened in Donetsk after an 11-year closure. (Mash на Донбассе, Mash на Донбассе)

Potential Future Developments

Continued Intense Ground Combat: Despite the declared ceasefire, fighting persists, particularly in key areas like Pokrovsk, Lyman, Novopavlivka, and the Kursk border region. This suggests the ceasefire is more symbolic than practical on the front lines. The claimed Russian advances east of Pokrovsk warrant close monitoring for potential shifts in the front line.
Escalation in the Kursk Border Region: The continued high-intensity fighting and civilian casualties in the Kursk border region indicate this area remains a significant point of tension and potential escalation. Ukrainian attempts to breach defenses and Russian counteractions are likely to continue. The reported involvement of foreign private military companies in the area, if confirmed, could indicate an escalation in the resources being committed to this front.
Persistent Aerial and Artillery Barrages: The high volume of drone and artillery attacks reported by both sides is likely to continue. The use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) targeting Sumy Oblast remains a concern.
Ongoing Ukrainian Deep Strikes: Ukraine is expected to continue targeting Russian military and industrial facilities deep within Russia and occupied territories using drones. The widespread internet outages in Russia attributed to anti-drone measures highlight the impact of these strikes.
Intensified Information Operations Around Victory Day: Information operations are likely to remain highly active, with both sides using the historical significance of Victory Day to promote their narratives and undermine the opponent. The presence of foreign leaders at the Moscow parade provides Russia with an opportunity for diplomatic messaging.
Geopolitical Maneuvering: Diplomatic efforts, such as the US-German discussion, planned Russia-US meeting on embassy operations, and the election of a new Pope, indicate ongoing efforts to address the conflict, although significant breakthroughs appear unlikely in the immediate future given the stated conditions. The UK's sanctions on the "shadow fleet" represent an escalation of economic pressure. The claimed uncovering of a Hungarian intelligence network by the SBU adds another layer of international complexity. Lithuania's withdrawal from the anti-personnel mine convention highlights the increasing security concerns among Russia's neighbors.
Potential for Internal Developments in Russia: The reported widespread internet outages and the claim of a large-scale mobile internet disconnection across European Russia could have broader implications for public life and the economy within Russia and potentially impact public sentiment regarding the conflict and the government's handling of security.
Continued Focus on Logistics and Fundraising: The ongoing calls for donations and the sales of tactical equipment underscore the critical role of logistical support and fundraising in sustaining military operations for both sides.
Continued Adaptation in Drone Warfare: The videos showcasing drone operations and fundraising efforts highlight the continued importance of drone warfare and the ongoing need for adaptation in tactics and countermeasures, including Russian efforts to combat Ukrainian heavy drones.
Potential for Increased Espionage Activity: The claimed uncovering of a Hungarian military intelligence network by the SBU highlights the ongoing threat of espionage and potential for similar activities by other foreign intelligence services.
Escalation in the India-Pakistan Conflict: The reported escalation on the India-Pakistan border is a significant development that warrants continued monitoring due to its potential impact on regional stability and international relations.
Renewed Activity Near the Antonovsky Bridge: The report of potential Ukrainian landing activity near the Antonovsky Bridge suggests renewed efforts by Ukraine to maintain a presence or conduct limited operations across the Dnieper River.
Focus on Rehabilitation and Veteran Support: The Russian decree on rehabilitation support for wounded soldiers indicates an increasing focus on addressing the human cost of the conflict and providing support for military personnel.

Operational Summary

The military situation remains dynamic, with intense ground combat continuing on key fronts, including Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka, despite a declared Russian ceasefire that is not being fully observed. Russian forces are reportedly making claimed advances east of Pokrovsk and near Makeevka, while facing continued resistance and Ukrainian counteractions. The Kursk border region remains a significant area of conflict with ongoing fighting, reported Ukrainian offensive attempts, and civilian casualties. Both sides are heavily reliant on drone warfare, artillery, and aerial strikes, with Russia continuing to use guided bombs and conduct widespread drone attacks across Ukraine, including a recent strike on the Belgorod government building. Ukraine is actively conducting deep strikes against Russian industrial and military targets. Diplomatic and information operations are intertwined, particularly around Victory Day commemorations, with foreign leaders attending the Moscow parade and both sides promoting their narratives. The UK is poised to impose sanctions targeting Russia's maritime capabilities. Internal Russian issues include security concerns leading to widespread internet outages. Ukraine has claimed to uncover a Hungarian military intelligence network, adding another layer of complexity. The conflict continues to highlight the critical need for logistical support, fundraising, and adaptation in military tactics, particularly in the domain of drone warfare. The humanitarian cost of the conflict remains evident with continued civilian casualties on both sides. A significant escalation on the India-Pakistan border is also reported.

Disclaimer: This report is based on the provided information and aims to provide a high-level analysis of the operational situation. It is crucial to acknowledge that the information landscape is dynamic and contested, and independent verification of all claims is not always possible in real-time. The analysis is focused on military intelligence and does not include comprehensive political or economic assessments unless directly relevant to military operations. All recommendations and actions based on this information must be filtered through human oversight and comply with international laws and ethical standards.

Situation Report